The World Bank projects lower economic growth for Bangladesh in the current fiscal year, stating that 12 lakh poor people will remain below the poverty line mainly due to the impact of the US-Israel war on Iran.

Today, the multilateral lender published its Bangladesh Development Update for April, a bi-annual publication of the World Bank.

Poverty and welfare outcomes deteriorated over 2022–25, driven by limited creation of productive jobs, weak labour income growth, and elevated inflation that reduced the poverty-reducing impact of growth, the lender said in its report.

Bangladesh’s national poverty rate is projected to have risen for a third consecutive year, increasing from 18.7 percent in 2022 to 21.4 percent in 2025.

Prior to the conflict in Middle East, about 1.7 million people were projected to get out of poverty this year, but due to conflict, now only 0.5 million people can exit poverty.

At the $3 international poverty line, an additional 1.4 million people are projected to have fallen into poverty over the same period, it added.

“A recovery projected for 2026 is now at risk — the Middle East conflict is expected to push an additional 1.2 million people below the poverty line, offsetting much of the projected improvement.”

The conflict is likely to materially affect Bangladesh’s economy, compounding existing vulnerabilities such as elevated inflation, financial sector struggles, constrained policy space, and weakened confidence.

Higher import costs, weaker exports, and falling remittances would add pressure to the current account balance, while rising energy prices and exchange rate pressures would further fuel inflation. Higher energy subsidies would also squeeze fiscal space.

Addressing these risks demands a coherent stabilisation strategy — backed by structural reforms — to build buffers, restore confidence, revive investment, and put growth on a sustainable footing.

The World Bank has downgraded Bangladesh’s near-term outlook, revising real GDP growth for FY26 down to 3.9 percent from the previous projection of 4.6 percent in January 2026.

The downward adjustment reflects the combined impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict and persistent domestic macroeconomic challenges, including elevated inflation, weak investment, and financial sector vulnerabilities.

Inflation is expected to moderate compared to FY25 but remain elevated due to higher import and energy costs linked to the conflict.

Shahjalal Islami Bank has reported a sharp rise in profitability for 2025, driven by strong growth in investment income and improved operational performance, while announcing a higher cash dividend for its shareholders.

According to the bank's latest price sensitive disclosure, its consolidated net profit surged 118% year-on-year to Tk368 crore in 2025, up from Tk169 crore in the previous year.

The robust earnings performance lifted consolidated earnings per share (EPS) to Tk3.31, compared with Tk1.52 a year earlier.

The bank also reported improved financial strength, with consolidated net asset value per share rising to Tk23.07 from Tk21.09 in 2024. Meanwhile, consolidated net operating cash flow per share increased to Tk12.28 from Tk8.03, reflecting stronger cash generation from core operations.

On the back of this improved performance, the board of directors recommended a 13% cash dividend for the year, up from 10% cash dividend declared in 2024. The decision was taken at a board meeting held today (8 April).

The bank attributed the strong profit growth mainly to higher net investment income, increased earnings from shares and securities, and a rise in other operating income. Improved cash flow was supported by higher investment income and increased placements with banks and financial institutions.

To approve the audited financial statements and dividend, the bank has scheduled its annual general meeting for 24 May, with the record date set for 30 April.

Market analysts view the strong earnings growth and higher dividend as positive signals for investors, particularly at a time when the banking sector is navigating various economic challenges.

The bank's shares responded positively on the Dhaka Stock Exchange, rising 2.29% today to close at Tk17.90.

As of March, sponsor-directors held 43.08% of the bank's shares, while institutional investors owned 24.25%. General investors accounted for the remaining 32.67%, indicating a balanced ownership structure.

Bangladesh’s national flag carrier, MV Banglar Joyjatra, sailed towards the Strait of Hormuz this noon—after being stranded in the Persian Gulf for 39 days—aiming to cross the route during the two-week ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran.

Bangladesh Shipping Corporation (BSC) Managing Director Commodore Mahmudul Malek confirmed the development at a press conference in Chattogram today.

A total of 31 Bangladeshi crew members are on board the vessel, which had been stranded in the Persian Gulf since the war began on February 28.

Malek said the ship went to Saudi port Ras Al-Khair three days ago and, after loading fertiliser, remained anchored at the outer anchorage of Dammam Port.

As Iran announced it would guarantee safe passage for maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks following the ceasefire, the vessel left the anchorage and is now heading towards the Strait, he said.

The ship will first reach a safe location and will cross the Strait once BSC gives further instructions after monitoring the situation, Malek added.

The vessel is carrying 37,000 tonnes of fertiliser.

When contacted via WhatsApp, the ship’s chief engineer, Rashedul Hasan, told The Daily Star that they lifted anchor around 9:00am local time (12:00pm Bangladesh time) after receiving instructions from BSC.

“We are now heading towards the Strait of Hormuz at a speed of 12 nautical miles per hour,” he said.

The chief engineer added that the vessel is about 420 nautical miles away from the Strait and, at the current speed, it will take around 40 hours to reach and cross it.

The BSC managing director said the ship’s charterer has initially set three possible destinations: South Africa, Mozambique, and Brazil. Once the destination is finalised, the vessel will proceed accordingly, he said.

The bulk carrier arrived at the United Arab Emirates port of Jebel Ali on February 27 from Mesaieed, Qatar, carrying 38,800 tonnes of steel coils before becoming stranded.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is considering linking VAT registration – known as a Business Identification Number (BIN) – to bank accounts, aiming to bring businesses with trade licences but without VAT registration under the tax net.

Under the proposed measure, businesses may be required to provide a BIN when opening or continuing current accounts in banks. According to NBR sources familiar with the budget, a provision in this regard may be included in the upcoming national budget.

If fully implemented, the policy could compel tens of thousands of small and large businesses to register for VAT, with the primary goal of expanding VAT coverage.

However, business owners and bankers have expressed concerns that mandatory BIN verification for bank accounts could discourage businesses from opening accounts or depositing funds. Many business owners are reportedly reluctant to register for VAT due to bureaucratic complexity and potential harassment.

A senior NBR official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Business Standard, "A large number of businesses, which are legally supposed to be under VAT, remain unregistered. To bring them under the tax net, making registration mandatory for opening a current account is being considered."

He added, "If approved by the finance minister, this could be included in the next budget and implemented from the next fiscal year."

Another official noted that even existing account holders may be required to undergo BIN verification.

According to NBR data, there are currently 7,92,000 VAT-registered entities in the country, of which about 5,00,000 file returns.

Estimates from the Bangladesh Shop Owners Association show that nearly 70 lakh shops hold trade licences, while many other businesses and service providers remain outside the VAT net. Moreover, not all of these businesses maintain current accounts.

According to estimates by the Bangladesh Shop Owners Association, nearly 70 lakh shops hold trade licenses, while there are many businesses and service providers that are still outside the VAT net. Not all of these businesses maintain current accounts.

Another NBR official said, "Small-scale businesses with low-value transactions are not our target. This initiative is aimed at businesses with current accounts and significant transaction volumes, to track turnover and ensure applicable VAT is collected."

Regarding concerns that businesses might sidestep monitoring through alternative accounts, the official noted, "Savings accounts have transaction limits. If fully implemented, these loopholes can also be addressed."

Business owners, however, voiced opposition to the plan. Arifur Rahman Tipu, general secretary of the Bangladesh Shop Owners Association, told The Business Standard, "If BIN becomes mandatory for opening or managing bank accounts indiscriminately, businesses may be discouraged from using banks, depositing money, or conducting transactions."

He added, "Forcing small businesses to register for VAT will increase their costs and could potentially drive them out of business. The complexity of the system and harassment discourage registration."

Bankers echoed these concerns. Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director and CEO of Mutual Trust Bank Limited, said, "Customers are already hesitant to deposit money due to bank charges and excise duties. Making BIN mandatory for businesses could further discourage account openings, prompting them to keep money elsewhere."

He suggested that the government focus on increasing direct taxes rather than imposing mandatory BIN requirements on bank accounts.

The dollar fell around one percent against the euro and the pound in early European trading Wednesday as investors sold the greenback on relief over a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

At around 8:10 am (0610 GMT) the dollar, usually a safe investment haven in times of market turmoil, was trading at 1.17 euros, down around 1.1 percent. Against the pound, the dollar fell around 0.9 percent to $1.34.

Rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States have already disrupted global energy and food supply chains, and may put additional pressure on Bangladesh's external balance and domestic inflation, according to Bangladesh Bank.

In its Quarterly Report for October-December, published today (8 April), the central bank said the newly elected government, which took office at the end of February, has taken steps to mitigate external vulnerabilities.

These include efforts to diversify crude oil import sources and reduce reliance on the Middle East, it added.

The central bank also said Bangladesh's external sector showed improvement in the second quarter of FY26, driven largely by a surge in workers' remittances. "The current account posted a surplus of $476 million, reversing a deficit of $818 million in the previous quarter."

However, the report mentioned that export performance weakened, particularly in the ready-made garments sector, amid cautious demand in major markets and rising global trade tensions.

At the same time, import payments remained broadly contained amid subdued domestic demand and moderate investment activity, resulting in a slight widening of the trade deficit, it said.

According to the central bank, the financial account recorded a surplus of $329 million, supported by higher foreign direct investment and increased disbursements of medium- and long-term external financing.

Overall, the balance of payments registered a surplus of $1.09 billion, helping boost gross foreign exchange reserves to $33.19 billion ($28.58 billion under BPM6) by the end of December 2025. The exchange rate remained stable under the market-based framework.

The report said inflationary pressures persisted during the quarter. Point-to-point headline inflation rose to 8.49% in December 2025 from 8.36% in September 2025, partly due to higher administered fuel prices.

Food inflation edged up to 7.71%, driven by increased prices of fish, dried fish and fruits. Non-food inflation also rose to 9.13%, reflecting higher energy-related costs, including gasoil. Despite steady nominal wage growth, elevated inflation kept real wages in negative territory, eroding purchasing power, the central bank said.

In the real sector, economic performance was mixed. Agricultural output exceeded both targets and last year's levels, supported by favourable weather and continued policy support.

However, industrial growth slowed sharply to 1.27% during the quarter, down from 6.82% in the previous quarter, it said, adding that the services sector remained resilient, helping sustain overall economic stability.

Despite strong overall GDP growth averaging 6.0% between FY16 and FY25, Bangladesh's private sector performance at the firm level has not kept pace, according to the latest World Bank analysis.

The latest Bangladesh Development Update report, published today (8 April), highlights a "productivity paradox," where aggregate growth has not translated into widespread innovation or productivity gains across businesses.

According to the report, revenue per worker in manufacturing and services is only about one-third of the South Asian benchmark. Productivity growth in services, the largest employer in the economy, has remained stagnant since 2016, highlighting persistent inefficiencies.

The report states that only 8% of formal firms were established in the past five years in Bangladesh, compared to 32% in China and 40% in Vietnam. This points to a shrinking pipeline of new enterprises and limits opportunities for economic diversification and innovation.

The report said private investment has fallen since 2013, particularly among smaller firms. Foreign direct investment remains below 1% of GDP and is concentrated in utilities rather than sectors like manufacturing or market services, where technology spillovers could drive productivity and job creation.

The economy has grown, but most gains have accrued to a small group of firms, leaving the broader private sector largely stagnant, the report notes.

The findings underscore the need for targeted reforms to foster innovation, support small and medium enterprises, and attract investment in high-productivity sectors to create more inclusive growth.

European natural gas prices plunged 20 percent at the start of trading Wednesday in the wake of a two-week ceasefire agreed between the United States and Iran.

The Dutch TTF natural gas contract, considered the European benchmark, slumped to 42.5 euros, retreating from highs seen over fears of supply disruptions in the Gulf from the war.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions pose near-term risks to Bangladesh's price stability, export demand and import costs, the central bank says in the wake of the worst ruckus in the Mideast.Bangladesh economic report

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has painted such a picture on the economic downside in its latest Bangladesh Bank Quarterly (BBQ) report for October-December 2025, while listing upside positives, too.

"Rising geopolitical tensions -particularly the Iran-Israel-USA conflict--have already disrupted global energy and food-supply chains and may exert additional pressure on both the external balance and domestic inflation," reads the BBQ, released Wednesday.

"Proactive policy measures to maintain macroeconomic stability remain central to managing these challenges," the central bank suggests, adding that continued policy coordination and ongoing reforms in the financial and external sectors are expected to support economic resilience in the quarters ahead.

The BBQ, however, notes that the newly elected democratic government, which took office at the end of February, has initiated several measures to mitigate external risks, including efforts to diversify crude-oil-import sources and reduce reliance on the Middle East.

Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have heightened the risk of volatility in global oil markets and exchange rates, according to the BBQ.

"For energy-importing economies like Bangladesh, rising global oil prices may incur increased import payments, thereby depleting foreign- exchange reserves and creating upside risks to inflation in the country," the regulator alerts.

On the other hand, global oil-price shock may induce the domestic currency exchange rate to depreciate, which is also inflationary in nature.Personal finance consulting

"The inflationary pressure on the economy may not ease in the coming months due mainly to the ongoing geopolitical tensions that would possibly push up overall import costs," Md. Ezazul Islam, Director- General of Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM), told The Financial Express (FE), while replying to a query.

Dr Islam, also a former executive director of the central bank, says earnings from both exports and remittances may also face setback in the coming months if the tension prolongs further, which would accelerate the deficit in the current account of the country's overall balance of payments.

The pace of economic activity showed volatility in the first half of the current fiscal year (FY), 2025-26, with alternating quarters of stronger and relatively weaker growth.

Real GDP (gross domestic product) growth decelerated in the second quarter (Q2) of FY'26 compared to the previous quarter, while inflation remained elevated.

"Overall, the latest indicators suggest that Bangladesh's macroeconomic conditions remained broadly stable despite persistent domestic and external challenges," the central bank notes.

In the real sector, economic activity showed a mixed performance, according to the BBQ.Market insights report

The central bank also says agricultural production recorded strong performance during the quarter, exceeding both official targets and the previous year's output levels, reflecting benign weather conditions and continued policy support.

In contrast, industrial activity fell considerably, recording 1.27-percent growth in the quarter under review, down from 6.82 per cent in the previous quarter, the BBQ mentions.

Services-sector activities remained robust, helping in maintaining overall economic stability.

Monetary conditions remained tight as the central bank continued its contractionary-policy stance to contain inflation and support macroeconomic stability.

The policy-rate and-interest-rate corridor remained unchanged, keeping the weighted average call money and interbank repo rates close to the 10.00-percent policy rate by the end of December 2025, according to the BBQ.

Meanwhile, the banking sector's asset quality appeared to improve during the Q2 of FY'26, as the gross non-performing loan (NPL) ratio declined to 30.60 per cent from 35.73 per cent three months before.Bangladesh economic report

"However, this improvement largely reflects recent regulatory relaxation rather than a fundamental strengthening of credit quality," the BBQ explains.

The central bank also says renewed depositor confidence, steady advances amid cautious lending, and tighter monetary policy contributed to a decline in the advance-deposit ratio, reflected in the adequate liquidity position.

Regarding external sector, the BBQ says the external sector improved during the period under review, supported mainly by a surge in worker remittances, which helped the current account return to a surplus of US$476 million, reversing the $818-million deficit recorded in the previous quarter.

However, export performance weakened during the quarter, particularly in the ready-made garment sector, reflecting cautious demand from major markets and rising global trade tensions, the central bank notes.

At the same time, import payments remained broadly contained amid subdued domestic demand and moderate investment activity. As a result, the trade deficit widened slightly.

In a move to lower financing costs and enhance global competitiveness, the Bangladesh Bank is set to introduce offshore dollar loans for exporters at a significantly lower interest rate.

Under the proposed scheme, exporters will be able to borrow at an interest rate of 8%, substantially lower than the prevailing 14% to 16% charged on local currency loans. The central bank is expected to issue a circular shortly outlining the operational framework, officials said.

Exporters would be permitted to use the funds for day-to-day business expenses, including utility payments, wages, and other working capital needs. The loans will be repaid from export proceeds in foreign currency, reducing pressure on the domestic banking system.

The facility will also allow exporters to convert the borrowed dollars into the taka through currency swaps with their banks if needed, without incurring additional interest costs.

Providing exporters with such facilities will enhance their financial capacity. Consequently, this is expected to bolster their competitiveness in the international market while easing the pressure on the country's foreign exchange reserves.

According to central bank officials, the loan amount will be linked to export orders. "For instance, if an exporter secures an order worth $100 and opens a letter of credit (LC) for $60 to import raw materials, they may borrow up to $40 under the offshore facility to meet remaining operational expenses," an official told The Business Standard.

Banks will be allowed to extend these loans based on their relationships with clients, with maturities ranging from three months to one year, he said, adding that no strict cap on lending has been imposed, giving banks flexibility to assess client needs.

"Currently, there is an opportunity to take this type of loan from the banking system, but it must be taken in the taka and the interest rate is 14% or more. The main objective of providing the facility to take loans from offshore banking at 8% interest is to increase the competitiveness of exporters and support them," the official said.

The Bangladesh Bank will instruct banks to provide short-term foreign currency loans to exporters from offshore banking units, based on established banker-customer relationships.

No further credit limits or additional conditions will be imposed on the banks. Depending on the specific requirements of the customer, banks may extend these loans for a tenure of three months to a maximum of one year.

The initiative follows a reduction in the Export Development Fund from $7 billion to $2.2 billion, a move necessitated by conditions under the International Monetary Fund programme. This reduction has significantly curtailed exporters' access to existing low-cost foreign currency financing.

What experts say

Speaking to TBS, economists and business leaders have welcomed the move, noting that exporters are facing increasing pressure due to declining global demand and rising production costs. They believe the new facility will help improve liquidity, reduce financing costs, and encourage investment.

However, experts have also highlighted risks. If export earnings are not repatriated, loan recovery could become difficult. In addition, exchange rate fluctuations could increase the repayment burden in local currency terms if the taka depreciates.

Mahmud Hassan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said at a time when the country's export earnings are consistently declining, such an initiative to bolster export capacity and support exporters is a highly positive step. However, he noted that the interest rate for these loans should be lower than 8%.

"Currently, when borrowing in dollars from the Bill Transformation Fund and the Technological Development Fund, the interest rate is 5%. Therefore, it is only logical that the interest rate for loans from offshore banking be set at 6% or 7%," he argued.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director and CEO of Mutual Trust Bank, said exporters would naturally benefit if working capital credit facilities were provided through offshore banking. He noted that as businesses are currently facing a crisis, the Bangladesh Bank is introducing this facility to compensate for the reduction in credit available from the Export Development Fund.

"Once this offshore banking facility is launched, instead of borrowing for back-to-back LCs, exporters will opt for these lower-interest loans. However, the significant risk here is that the exports must be executed against the orders, and the export proceeds must be repatriated to the country," he added.

While welcoming the move, Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, advocated for a rigorous vetting process to select eligible borrowers and ensure that these loans are not misused.

"Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves stand at approximately $30 billion. If monthly import costs average $5 billion, it is possible to cover six months of import expenses. Therefore, it is crucial to safeguard our foreign currency and ensure it is not squandered under any circumstances," she said.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, also viewed the decision to lift existing restrictions on loan disbursements from offshore banking as a positive move. He added that allowing loan distribution and currency swap facilities based on banker-customer relationships is also a logical step.

"However, if there is a significant depreciation of the taka due to exchange rate fluctuations, borrowers will have to repay a higher amount in local currency terms. The resulting additional liability must be borne by the borrowers themselves. It is crucial to ensure that they do not seek incentives or assistance from the Bangladesh Bank when such situations arise," he added.

Bangladesh’s foreign exchange (forex) market remains stable and there is no immediate pressure to devalue the Taka, according to a recent assessment by Bangladesh Bank.

The central bank said despite some media reports suggesting a possible devaluation, the supply and demand for foreign currency are currently balanced.

As of April 6, 2026, the banking sector holds around $3.9 billion in foreign currency liquidity, up from $2.3 billion at the end of February 2026.

Cash holdings of foreign currency in banks also rose slightly, from $47.6 million on February 26 to $49 million by April 6.

Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves currently stand at approximately $34.35 billion.

Central bank officials noted that reserves could have approached $36 billion if Bangladesh Bank had actively purchased dollars to maintain market liquidity.

Notably, the central bank has not bought any dollars from the market over the past month, even though banks’ Net Open Position (NOP) reached about $1 billion—well above the usual $600–700 million threshold that typically prompts such purchases.

The market stability is supported by a surge in remittance inflows.

In March 2026, Bangladesh received $3.775 billion in remittances—the highest for any single month to date. This trend has continued into April, with $660 million received in the first six days, a 20.5 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

Foreign payments continue to be regular and well-managed.

In the past month, Bangladesh settled $1.37 billion in Asian Clearing Union (ACU) bills. Additionally, around $180 million in government foreign debt has been repaid recently.

The central bank stated that the forex market is operating under normal mechanisms, without significant value-based pressure on the dollar. Strong remittance flows and disciplined market behavior continue to ensure a secure foreign exchange environment.

Bangladesh’s economy may have expanded at a slower pace in March, primarily driven by the manufacturing sector’s first contraction after 18 consecutive months of growth, according to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

Bangladesh’s PMI declined by 2.2 points to 52.5 in March compared to the previous month, according to the report issued yesterday by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka (MCCI) and Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB).

The PMI is a forward-looking indicator used globally to gauge economic direction. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

“The March PMI readings point to moderate economic growth, largely driven by a manufacturing sector slowdown due to extended holidays and global demand uncertainties stemming from the Middle East crisis,” said M Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of PEB.

He added that the US-Israeli war on Iran has weakened economic momentum through heightened inflationary pressures and risks of supply disruptions, increasing the economy’s vulnerability.

A decline in new orders, exports, finished goods, imports, and employment fuelled the downturn in the manufacturing sector. However, factory output and input purchases continued to expand, and order backlogs returned to growth.

The construction sector remained in the downtrend for the second consecutive month, while the agriculture sector saw its seventh month of expansion, albeit at a slower pace.

Agriculture reported slower expansion in business activity and input costs. While order backlogs grew, the sector faced tightening in new business and employment.

Construction continued its decline, with new business and activity levels falling. While employment and order backlogs in the sector rebounded, input costs rose at a faster pace.

The services sector continued its momentum, recording its 18th consecutive month of expansion with slightly accelerated growth across new business, employment, and business activity.

Looking ahead, the future business index signals continued expansion across all key sectors, agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and services, reflecting sustained business optimism, the report said.

The MCCI and PEB began publishing the PMI in January last year. Initiated by the UK government, the index covers over 500 private sector firms.

Linde Bangladesh has announced a 100% cash dividend for the year 2025, maintaining a strong payout for shareholders despite a significant decline in profit compared to the previous year.

The decision was taken at a board meeting held on Wednesday (8 April) of the multinational industrial and medical gas producer, according to a price sensitive disclosure. The company has scheduled its annual general meeting for 10 June, while the record date has been fixed for 29 April.

For the year ended 2025, the company reported a net profit of Tk34 crore, with earnings per share (EPS) standing at Tk22.60. This marks a sharp drop from the previous year's EPS of Tk421.9, which had been exceptionally high due to a one-off gain.

The company clarified that its 2024 earnings were significantly boosted by income generated from the divestment of its hard goods business.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today (8 April) kept its key interest rate unchanged, citing inflationary pressures driven by higher import costs following the recent West Asia conflict.

Announcing the first bi-monthly monetary policy of the fiscal year, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to retain the repo rate at 5.3% while maintaining a neutral stance.

The decision comes after the six-week-long Middle East war disrupted global energy supplies, pushed up crude oil prices and triggered inflationary and fiscal pressures for import-dependent economies such as India, the world's third-largest energy consumer.

This is the first monetary policy review after the Indian government announced a fresh retail inflation target of 4% with a margin of 2% on either side for another five years ending March 2031.

The central bank's pause follows easing inflation, with the consumer price index (CPI)-based headline inflation falling to 3.2% in February, closer to its medium-term target.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee has depreciated by more than 4% since the conflict began on 28 February.

The United Kingdom’s visiting trade envoy, Baroness Rosie Winterton of Doncaster, has called on Bangladesh to increase exports to her country utilising the Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS), which offers duty-free access.

During a meeting with Commerce Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury at the Secretariat yesterday, she pointed to scope for increasing exports beyond ready-made garments, including processed foods, seafood, light engineering and leather goods.

She also encouraged Bangladesh to make use of approximately £2 billion in export credit facilities available under UK Export Finance for increased infrastructure and other investments, according to a commerce ministry press statement.

During the meeting, both sides agreed to reactivate the Bangladesh–UK Trade and Investment Dialogue, the statement adds.

The DCTS, which replaced the UK’s Generalised Scheme of Preferences, came into force on 19 June 2023. Under the scheme, the UK cuts tariffs, removes conditions and simplifies trading rules for 65 developing countries.

The scheme heavily benefits UK businesses and consumers by reducing the import cost of thousands of products from around the world. Importers enjoy zero percent import tariff on 99.8 percent of products from 47 eligible least developed countries (LDCs), including Bangladesh, under the scheme’s Comprehensive Preferences tier.

The UK has confirmed it will maintain duty-free access for Bangladeshi goods under DCTS even after Bangladesh graduates from LDC status.

During the meeting with the UK envoy, Minister Chowdhury said the government has been working to improve the investment climate, cut logistics costs and ease doing business.

He said Bangladesh is pursuing free trade agreements and economic partnership agreements with several countries and intends to deepen trade ties with the UK.

The UK is Bangladesh’s third-largest export destination after the United States and Germany.

In the last fiscal year 2024-25, Bangladesh exported $4.62 billion worth of goods to the European country, accounting for 9.57 percent of total exports, according to data from the Bangladesh High Commission in London.

The major exportable items include ready-made garments, frozen food, IT engineering, leather and jute goods, and bicycles, with knitwear and woven garments accounting for 90 percent of total exports.

Audit reports of two listed companies – Silva Pharmaceuticals and Associated Oxygen – have identified inconsistencies in IPO fund utilisation, alongside delays and compliance gaps, according to stock exchange disclosures today.

For Silva Pharmaceuticals, the audit of IPO proceeds utilisation up to 28 February 2026 found that the company exceeded its approved budget for civil construction. Expenditure in this segment rose to Tk6.53 crore, or 104.26% of the allocated amount, resulting in excess spending of around Tk24 lakh without prior approval from shareholders or the regulator.

The report also highlighted a fund reallocation decision taken at the company's 9th Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) on 30 December 2025, under which approximately Tk2.81 crore of unutilised funds from the "Machinery and Equipment" segment were transferred to working capital. However, no specific timeline for this reallocation was disclosed.

So far, 76.99% of the machinery allocation has been utilised, with the remaining funds shifted to working capital. The company has also fully utilised Tk9.9 crore earmarked for loan repayment and Tk2.44 crore for IPO-related expenses.

However, auditors observed inconsistencies in the use of working capital, noting that around Tk0.49 crore – 17.39% of the unspent portion – had been utilised in a manner not fully aligned with the original plan, despite EGM approval.

Overall, while IPO proceeds were largely used in line with the prospectus, auditors flagged deviations including excess construction spending, unclear fund reallocation, and partial inconsistencies in working capital use. The report also noted that utilisation was not completed within the originally stipulated timeline.

Meanwhile, Associated Oxygen has made substantial progress in utilising its IPO funds but faces issues related to deadlines and regulatory compliance. As per its prospectus, the deadline for submitting IPO utilisation reports expired in October 2022.

The company applied twice for deadline extensions; the first request was partially approved, while the second was rejected by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC).

Associated Oxygen raised Tk15 crore through its IPO in September 2020.

Overall, auditors said that although both companies largely adhered to their stated objectives in using IPO proceeds, gaps remain in governance, timeline compliance, and fund management. Addressing these issues through proper approvals and disclosures will be crucial to maintaining investor confidence.

The securities regulator has fined the directors and top executive of Rupali Insurance Company Limited for violating credit rating regulations, highlighting ongoing concerns over compliance and governance practices in the capital market.

According to the latest monthly enforcement report of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), 11 individuals—including directors and the chief executive officer—were each fined Tk1 lakh in March.

The penalised persons are Mostafa Golam Quddus, Ali Ahmed, Mohammad Yonus, Quazi Moniruzzaman, KM Faruk, Abu Hena, Shaon Ahmed, Obaidul Huque, Mostafa Quamrus Sobhan, Fazlutun Nessa, and CEO Fawzia Kamrun Taniyas.

However, Quddus, the former chairman of the company, passed away in January 2025, while some of the penalised individuals are no longer actively engaged with the company.

The BSEC said in the report that the penalty stems from irregularities related to the company's credit rating process and alleged violations of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Credit Rating Companies) Rules, 2022.

The regulator found inconsistencies in an agreement between the insurer and Credit Rating Information and Services Limited (CRISL), particularly the absence of a clear validity period and execution date.

Under the agreement, CRISL was responsible for conducting an initial credit rating for 2018 and surveillance ratings for subsequent years. While the firm completed ratings up to 2020, the validity of its last rating report expired on 28 November 2022.

Immediately after this expiry, Rupali Insurance entered into a new agreement with National Credit Rating Limited on 29 November 2022, and a fresh rating report was issued in December based on updated financial statements.

The BSEC concluded that engaging a new rating agency without formally terminating the previous agreement or securing regulatory approval breached rules governing the continuity and termination of credit rating engagements.

The rules require that once a rating agreement is executed, it must continue through the initial rating and three consecutive surveillance ratings unless formally terminated with the commission's approval.

During the hearing, Rupali Insurance and the accused individuals contested the allegations, arguing that the agreement with CRISL had naturally expired rather than being terminated. They also claimed the previous agency failed to deliver within the stipulated timeframe, necessitating a new rating to meet regulatory and financial obligations.

Despite these arguments, the BSEC upheld its findings and imposed penalties, reinforcing its stance on strict compliance with regulatory frameworks.

Gold prices climbed ‌to a nearly three-week high on Wednesday as markets reassessed near-term risks after US President Donald Trump agreed to suspend bombings and attacks on Iran for two weeks, easing fears of energy-driven inflation.

Spot gold ​was up 2.5 percent at $4,819.52 per ounce, as of 0726 GMT. Earlier in the session, ​bullion rose more than 3 percent to its highest level since March 19. US gold futures for June delivery gained 3.4 percent to $4,845.30.

Trump said Washington had agreed to a two-week ​pause in attacks and received what he described as a “workable” 10-point proposal from Iran as a basis for negotiations.

His comments ​followed earlier warnings that Tehran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz or risk US retaliation on its civilian infrastructure.

“People went into this session thinking that escalation was very likely, but the announcement of a two-week ​truce kind of upended that expectation and that was gold positive,” said Nicholas Frappell, ​global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery.

Iran’s Supreme Security Council said negotiations with the United States would begin ‌on ⁠April 10 in Islamabad after it submitted its proposal via Pakistan, adding that talks did not signal an end to the war.

Meanwhile, rising energy prices could fuel inflation and complicate central banks’ interest rates decision.

While gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty, its appeal tends to weaken ​in a high-interest-rate environment ​as it offers ⁠no yield.

Markets are now awaiting minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting later in the day.

Gold, which began the year on a strong note, ​has fallen more than 8 percent since the Iran war erupted on ​February 28.

“This ⁠is a knee-jerk relief rally and it remains to be seen if Iran complies. For gold, the 200 day-moving-average at $4,930 and then $5,000 will be key hurdles. Similarly, $80-$81 is a important level for ⁠silver,” ​independent metals trader Tai Wong said.

The US-Israel war on Iran, before reaching a ceasefire agreement just yesterday, highlighted a longstanding vulnerability of Bangladesh – Bangladesh's only refinery, Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL), has not been significantly modernised or expanded in more than five decades.

This issue had also surfaced during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, when attempts to process Russian crude failed due to the refinery's outdated configuration. Despite that experience, little progress was made in upgrading its capacity.

As the Iran war disrupted supplies from the Middle East — the country's primary source of oil and gas imports, the state-run Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has started exploring crude options beyond Middle Eastern countries, while also seeking technical recommendations from Eastern Refinery on suitable crude specifications.

Since ERL cannot process all types of crude oil, the BPC is carefully assessing transport costs, compatibility and by-product impacts before moving ahead with imports from new sources.

Former caretaker government adviser and energy expert M Tamim said the Middle East remains the most cost-effective source due to proximity, but stressed that the planned second unit of ERL must include modern facilities capable of refining a wider range of crude types to ensure energy security during crises.

Search for alternatives intensifies

Apart from closing the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East war also caused output cuts in the region's major energy facilities, resulting in force majeure by key suppliers for Bangladesh.

In March, shipments of crude oil from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi – each carrying around 1 lakh tonnes – were cancelled. As a result, Bangladesh did not receive any crude consignments during the month. Authorities have since secured a replacement shipment from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port for next month, though at a slightly higher cost of about $0.25 per barrel.

According to ERL officials, the refinery was originally designed to process Arabian Light crude from Saudi Arabia and Murban crude from the UAE. Heavier crude types, such as those from Russia, cannot be refined using the existing setup. With no blending facility in place, the refinery lacks flexibility to adapt to alternative sources.

To address this, ERL has analysed crude specifications from several countries – including Nigeria, Azerbaijan, Norway, Angola, and the UK – and submitted its findings to BPC. The corporation is now reviewing these options, considering both economic and technical feasibility.

BPC General Manager (Commercial and Operations) Muhammad Morshed Hossain Azad said work on alternative sourcing is ongoing, adding that maintaining a diversified supply line will be important even if the geopolitical situation stabilises.

Capacity constraints remain a major concern

Bangladesh imports between 65 lakh and 68 lakh tonnes of fuel annually, with crude oil accounting for about 15 lakh tonnes — all refined at ERL. The country also imports around 45 lakh tonnes of refined fuel, mainly diesel, from countries like India and China.

Despite rising demand, refining capacity has remained stagnant since independence. This has forced Bangladesh to rely heavily on costly refined fuel imports, increasing pressure on foreign currency reserves.

A long-delayed project to build ERL's second unit – which would double refining capacity to 30 lakh tonnes annually – has faced repeated setbacks. Although the project was first proposed in 2010 and approved in various forms over the years, it took more than a decade and a half to receive final approval.

The project, now estimated to cost around Tk31,000 crore, was approved by the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) in December last year. Authorities are exploring financing options, including potential loans from external sources such as the Islamic Development Bank.

Officials say the new unit will be designed with greater flexibility to process a wider range of crude oil, addressing one of the key weaknesses of the current refinery.

Until then, Bangladesh remains exposed to global supply shocks — with limited capacity to adapt quickly when its primary fuel sources are disrupted.

A ceasefire in the Iran war will deliver badly-needed relief to economies battered by the world's worst ever energy crisis, but hopes the truce will quickly restore normal oil and gas flows from the Middle East are almost certainly misplaced.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday agreed to a two-week ceasefire, conditional on Iran pausing its blockade ​of oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that typically handles about one-fifth of global oil trade. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran ‌would halt counter-attacks and guarantee safe passage for vessels transiting the strait.

How quickly the ceasefire will take full effect, however, remains unclear. Iran launched further attacks on Israel and Gulf countries shortly after Trump's announcement, underscoring the fragility of the deal. The war, now in its sixth week, has claimed more than 5,000 lives across nearly a dozen countries and badly damaged vital regional infrastructure, including oil and gas facilities.

Financial markets nonetheless welcomed the news. Japan's benchmark Nikkei jumped 5% to a one‑month high, while ​Brent crude prices tumbled roughly 13% to around $95 a barrel by 0300 GMT, as traders priced in a near-term easing of supply risks.

QUICK RELIEF VALVE

A temporary halt in fighting and the reopening of ​Hormuz would allow Middle Eastern exporters to ship significant volumes of oil that have been trapped inside the Gulf since hostilities began, offering global energy markets some ⁠immediate relief.

Around 130 million barrels of crude oil and 46 million barrels of refined fuels are currently floating on roughly 200 tankers in the region, according to data from analytics firm Kpler. Another 1.3 million tonnes ​of liquefied natural gas are also stuck on vessels awaiting safe passage.

For Asia, which relies on the Middle East for 60% of its oil and 80% of gas imports, the disruption has been particularly severe. Several countries ​have been forced to curb industrial output and ration fuel supplies following the abrupt cut in deliveries. The release of these trapped volumes would therefore ease the most acute pressure on Asian economies and energy systems.

But clearing the backlog of cargoes is only part of the problem. Getting tankers out of the Gulf is one thing; persuading shipowners and charterers to send vessels back in is quite another.

The unprecedented blockade of Hormuz has caused severe disruption to global shipping markets by sharply reducing ​tanker availability, pushing freight rates to record highs. Many shipowners are likely to remain extremely cautious about re-entering the region during what is, at best, a shaky and time-limited ceasefire, fearing their vessels and crews could ​once again become trapped if hostilities resume.

That caution would in turn constrain any attempt to revive normal export flows.

OIL PRODUCTION TO LAG

Middle East oil exports via Hormuz collapsed by around 13 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, equivalent to ‌roughly 13% of ⁠global consumption, according to Kpler. While Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates managed to divert some shipments through alternative routes, the disruption forced regional producers to shut in an estimated 7.5 million bpd of output in March, including 2.8 million bpd in Iraq and 1.9 million bpd in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, according to US Energy Information Administration estimates.

As matters stand, much of that production is unlikely to come back quickly.

Restarting oilfields, especially at the scale found in the Middle East, is a complex, time-consuming process that can take weeks at best. National oil companies such as Saudi Aramco and the UAE's Adnoc are likely to hesitate before ​restoring output without greater clarity on the durability of ​the ceasefire.

Moreover, refineries, fields and export terminals damaged ⁠by missile and drone strikes will require months, and in some cases years, to repair. The region also faces a shortage of specialised equipment and skilled labour, which could further slow restoration efforts.

Crucially, without confidence that sufficient tankers will be available to load crude oil, diesel and jet fuel, producers will be reluctant to risk ​restarting fields and refineries only to find they cannot move the output.

LASTING SCARS

Were Washington and Tehran to agree on a permanent cessation of hostilities that ​led to the full reopening ⁠of Hormuz, oil and gas trade could eventually return to more normal operations. But even under that more optimistic scenario, the war is likely to leave lasting scars on global supply.

In the medium term, the oil market could remain 3 to 5 million bpd tighter over the next few years than pre-war expectations, due to damage to export infrastructure and the need to rebuild depleted inventories, according to Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.

Unless the warring ⁠sides strike a ​firmer peace deal, the two‑week ceasefire now taking shape risks being little more than a short-term patch in what has become ​an unprecedented global energy crisis.