Stocks today (5 May) witnessed sell-offs, with prices declining for 58% of the scrips traded on the bourse, dragging down the DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), by 11 points.

A day after returning to positive territory on Monday snapping a two-session losing streak, stocks ended on the red.

According to data of EBL Securities, among the top ten index draggers, eight were banking stocks, with City Bank leading the decline by shaving off 5 points. It was followed by BRAC Bank, Al-Arafah Islami Bank, Islami Bank Bangladesh, Pubali Bank, Shahjalal Islami Bank, Square Pharmaceuticals, NCC Bank, Bank Asia, and Grameenphone.

On the upside, Beximco Pharmaceuticals emerged as the top index gainer, contributing 11 points, followed by Beacon Pharmaceuticals, United Commercial Bank, Dominage Steel Building Systems, and Uttara Bank, the EBL data showed.

With a decline of 11 points, DSEX closed at 5,267 points, while DSES, the shariah index, surged 6 points to 1,060, and DS30, the blue-chip index, fell 6 points to 2,017, the DSE data showed.

A total 393 stocks traded today, while 227 stocks or 58% saw price decline, 107 stocks price surges and 59 stocks price remained unchanged.

Turnover, one of the major indicator, posted a decline around 5% to Tk876.95 crore and market cap, the value of total shares of the listed companies downed by Tk732 crore to Tk6.80 lakh crore.

EBL Securities said the benchmark index of the Dhaka bourse resumed its downward trajectory as broad-based selling dominated the session, with banking stocks exerting a notable drag after post–record date adjustments.

"Although the indices remained afloat through mid-session, the market lost traction in the final hour as broad-based selling pressure eroded earlier momentum, ultimately dragging the indices into negative territory by the close," it said.

On the sectoral front, Pharmaceutical and Chemical sector accounted for the highest share by 15.9% of turnover, followed by Bank 13.8% and Engineering sector stocks by 12.4%.

Sectors mostly displayed mixed returns, out of which life insurance, tannery and services exerted the most corrections, while ceramic, paper and pharma exhibited some positive returns on the bourse today.

Monno Ceramics topped the gainer chart as its shares price surged by 9.95% to Tk95 each, followed by Beximco Pharmaceuticals by 7.69% to Tk126 each, Dominage Steel Building Systems by 7.32% to Tk70.3 each, Sikder Insurance by 4.98% to Tk29.5 each, and Monno Agro by 4.46% to Tk348.9 each.

While on the loser from, Apex Spinning was top loser as its shares price fell 8.59% to Tk330.6 each, followed by Premier Leasing by 8% to Tk2.3 each, GSP Finance by 6.97% to Tk4 each, Bay Leasing by 6.38% to Tk4.4 each, and Energypac Power Generation by 5.85% to Tk17.7 each.

The port city bourse, Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), also settled on a negative territory.

The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) and All Share Price Index (CASPI) lost 16.9 points and 31.9 points, respectively.

Listed private power producers are beginning to absorb a shock that is set to deepen as the government pivots away from costly rental and furnace oil-based plants toward LNG, coal, and renewable energy.

The companies-except for Shahjibazar Power Co and Energypac Power Generation-witnessed a fall in revenue in the third quarter to March of FY26, against the backdrop of the government's unwillingness to renew power purchase contracts upon expiry. This led to partial utilisation of the plants. Meanwhile, some of these companies saw their finance costs rise, further eroding profits.Despite the decline in revenue, however, many of the companies posted higher profits in the third quarter of FY26 compared to the same quarter of the previous year, as they received income from subsidiaries or associate companies. In some cases, the cost of goods sold and finance costs were shown to be lower without any explanation.

Overall, listed companies with older furnace oil-based plants are struggling more than non-listed ones operating efficient gas or LNG-based facilities, analysts said.

Sector leader United Power Generation & Distribution Company Ltd. posted a notable decline in earnings on the back of lower electricity sales and higher finance costs.

Industry insiders said gas price hikes without corresponding tariff adjustments, along with delayed payments from the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), further squeezed margins. Bangladesheconomic report

Summit Power Limited showed only marginal improvement from a weak base, as several of its plants remained shut following deal expiries. The company has increasingly been operating under a "no electricity, no payment" model, significantly reducing its capacity payment income.

Khulna Power Company Limited also faces structural challenges, as some of its major plants remain inactive following contract expiry, limiting its revenue base.

Smaller player GBB Power Ltd. also remains under pressure, mainly due to maintenance costs.

Energypac Power Generation, which belongs to the energy sector on the bourses but is no longer engaged in producing electricity, sank deeper into losses due to high borrowing costs and weak performance. It now provides power engineering solutions.

Sector insiders said the core challenge now lies in the transition from guaranteed returns in the form of capacity charge payments to performance-based earnings. The government's ongoing energy policy shift has accelerated this transition.

As a result, analysts expect continued divergence in earnings performance, with newer and more efficient plants gaining ground, while older, contract-dependent assets face declining profitability.

United Power Generation & Distribution Company

The leading listed private sector power producer reported a 35 per cent decline in profit in the January-March third quarter of FY26 to Tk 2.76 billion, compared to the corresponding period last year, due to lower production levels.

In the quarter, the company's revenue shrank nearly 30 per cent to Tk 6.74 billion, according to a disclosure.

Apart from dwindling profitability, the company's cash generation has also fallen due to collection delays caused by external macroeconomic factors.

Summit Power Limited

The power producer lost one-fifth of its revenue in the January-March quarter of FY26, falling to Tk 6.5 billion. Despite the reduction in revenue, Summit Power reported a more than 11 per cent jump in net profit, supported by a decline in the cost of production.

However, no explanation has been provided as to how the cost of production fell 9 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter to March this year.

Shahjibazar Power Co.

This power producer reported strong performance, mainly driven by income from sister concerns.

Khulna Power Company Limited

It earned no revenue in the quarter, yet reported profits by relying on income from its associate company.

GBB Power Ltd.

It had no revenue income but reported positive earnings in Q3 of FY26, though lower than in the same quarter of the previous year, based on non-operating income.

Energypac Power Generation

This private sector power company reported a larger loss this year as its finance costs increased threefold.

Doreen Power Generations and Systems Limited

Doreen Power Generations also sustained a decline in revenue but secured profit growth through reduced finance and production costs.

Baraka Patenga Power Limited and Baraka Power Limited

Most of the plants of the two companies have remained shut, but their associate companies, which are also power producers, generated moderate revenue.
Baraka Patenga's cost of goods sold was Tk 66 per Tk 100 of revenue in Q3 of FY25, which was drastically reduced to Tk 57 per Tk 100 of revenue in Q3, FY26. The company also reported lower general and administrative expenses year-on-year in the quarter.

Baraka Power also reported lower cost of goods sold and reduced finance costs, which helped increase net profit.

The government has moved to deepen energy cooperation with India by proposing a government-to-government (G2G) refining arrangement aimed at ensuring a stable supply of petroleum products as global markets remain volatile.

In a letter dated 16 April 2026 and marked urgent, the Energy and Mineral Resources Division under the power, energy and mineral resources ministry requested the foreign ministry to initiate diplomatic engagement with the Indian government.

The communication, addressed to the foreign secretary and copied to the director general of the South Asia wing, a source at the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation told The Business Standard.

Foreign ministry officials said the request has already been conveyed to the Indian High Commission in Dhaka, although no response has yet been received.

The proposal comes amid growing concern over fuel supply security, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Proposed tolling arrangement

At the centre of the initiative is a tolling model under which crude oil owned or financed by Bangladesh would be processed in Indian refineries, with Bangladesh paying refining fees and associated logistics costs.

The Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has been designated as the implementing agency and will lead technical and commercial negotiations once formal engagement begins. Officials said the proposal requires priority consideration given its importance to national energy security.

When contacted by TBS, an official from the South Asia wing of the foreign ministry declined to comment, saying the matter involves two countries and is subject to confidentiality.

Strategic rationale

Officials say the move reflects structural limitations in Bangladesh's domestic refining capacity. The country relies heavily on Eastern Refinery Limited, which remains constrained in both scale and technological capability.

With demand for petroleum products rising across power generation, transport, agriculture and industry, the gap between domestic refining capacity and consumption has widened.

The proposed arrangement with India is therefore being viewed as a strategic effort to diversify supply mechanisms without requiring immediate large-scale investment in domestic refining upgrades. India's extensive and technologically advanced refining infrastructure, capable of processing crude from diverse sources, makes it a natural partner.

Operational framework

Under the proposed model, designated Indian state-owned oil companies would procure crude oil, potentially in coordination with the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation, and refine it on Bangladesh's behalf. The refined products would then be supplied back to Bangladesh.

The Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation would bear the full cost, including crude procurement, tolling charges and logistics. Officials said this approach would allow Bangladesh to access diversified crude supplies while utilising India's refining capacity.

The Energy and Mineral Resources Division has sought diplomatic facilitation to engage relevant Indian authorities and companies and to establish a platform for technical and commercial discussions.

Benefits and risks

Officials said the arrangement could enhance supply security by reducing exposure to spot market volatility and geopolitical disruptions, while also offering potential cost advantages through access to competitively priced refined fuels.

The model may also improve sourcing flexibility by leveraging India's broad crude procurement network and could be implemented more quickly than expanding domestic refining capacity, which requires substantial investment and long lead times.

However, concerns remain over increased dependence on external infrastructure, which could affect long-term energy sovereignty. Questions around pricing transparency and the need for robust negotiation of tolling fees have also been raised.

Officials noted that reliance on a single regional partner may carry geopolitical risks, particularly during periods of diplomatic strain. There are also concerns that the arrangement could delay investment in domestic refining facilities, including the expansion of Eastern Refinery Limited.

In addition, payments for refining services and logistics in foreign currency could place further pressure on Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves.

Balancing immediate needs with long-term goals

Energy experts suggest the proposed arrangement could serve as a short- to medium-term solution but should not replace efforts to strengthen domestic refining capacity.

They argue that Bangladesh needs a balanced strategy that combines regional cooperation for immediate supply stability with accelerated investment in local infrastructure, warning that overreliance on external facilities could create long-term vulnerabilities.

The government has also been exploring plans to expand refining capacity and develop energy infrastructure, although progress has been slow due to financing constraints.

US President Donald Trump’s military forays in Venezuela and Iran have weakened Opec more than anyone thought possible just months ago. The White House may view this as a major win, but it may ultimately leave both the US and energy markets worse off.

For decades, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, under its de facto leader Saudi Arabia, has exercised outsized influence over oil markets, dialling output up or ​down by tapping spare capacity to manage prices and defend market share.

That influence has long been eroding as the US and other non-Opec members have gained prominence in the past decades. The percentage of ‌global oil production Opec oversees fell from a peak of about 50 percent in the 1970s to roughly 35 percent last year - and down to around 26 percent in March in the wake of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the Iran war.

The United Arab Emirates, the cartel’s fourth‑largest producer, quit the group last week after 60 years to pursue its energy strategy free of Opec production quotas, directly challenging Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbours.

Trump – a long-time critic of Opec – hailed the UAE’s departure as “great,” arguing it would help push oil prices lower.

That may prove true – ​and the US president’s muscular foreign policy may ultimately prove to be the producer group’s undoing. But a weaker Opec is not necessarily good news for consumers or producers – including the US.

Opec has long been a ​lightning rod for US lawmakers who accuse it of acting as a cartel. Trump has levelled blistering criticism at the group for years. In 2018, he accused Opec of being a monopoly that kept oil prices “artificially high.” After returning to office last year, he renewed pressure on the group to keep prices low.

This year, he went far beyond tough talk.

The lightning-fast US raid on Venezuela in January saw long-serving President Nicolas Maduro ​captured and replaced by a Washington‑friendly government. The Trump administration swiftly took control of Venezuela’s oil sector, redirecting most of its exports to the US and opening the country’s vast oil reserves to Western companies.

Venezuela, a founding Opec member in 1960, ​saw its production wither over recent decades to under 1 million barrels per day as a result of mismanagement, chronic underinvestment and US sanctions. That is less than 1 percent of global supplies.

But output is now expected to rebound as fresh capital flows in. While Trump has not objected to Venezuela remaining in Opec, it is hard to imagine Caracas agreeing to curb output under Opec quotas given Washington’s tight oversight of its energy sector.

The US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 triggered a far more dramatic cascade, leaving Opec fractured and largely powerless.

Tehran sealed off the Strait ​of Hormuz within hours of the first strikes, trapping roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies inside the Gulf.

During the 40-day active conflict, dozens of energy facilities were targeted across the Gulf, including tankers, oil and gas ​fields, refineries, pipelines and storage terminals.

The closure and the fighting forced producers to shut in around 10 million bpd, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE diverted some output to ports outside the Gulf.

Washington implemented its own blockade in mid-April while US efforts to break the Iranian blockade have ‌so far done little to revive traffic through the narrow waterway.

Opec’s traditional pillars - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq - found themselves bereft of their main export route, usable spare capacity and operational flexibility.

In short, they were essentially powerless in the face of the biggest oil shock in history.

This, in turn, created an opening for the vast US oil and gas industry - now the world’s largest in terms of production - to rapidly ramp up exports to Asia and Europe, further eroding Opec’s market share and influence.

America’s position is strengthened, but the US oil industry is driven by market forces. It has no equivalent of Opec’s spare capacity to balance the market.

In the absence of a strong Opec, Trump may find this new environment far less manageable than he bargained ​for.

CUSHIONING THE BLOW

Opec has long played a central role in stabilising oil ​markets, using large volumes of low-cost spare capacity, mostly concentrated ⁠in the Gulf, to cushion the impact of wars and weather events.

It also proved effective in times of oversupply, most notably during the onset of the COVID‑19 pandemic. Trump personally urged Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in April 2020 to slash output and ease pressure on US producers. Within days, Opec+ announced its largest-ever production cut.

Without effective market management by Opec, oil markets ​face higher volatility and fewer shock absorbers to deal with disruptions that are likely to become more frequent as geopolitical tensions rise.

For producing nations, including the US, this would likely ​translate into more frequent boom-and-bust cycles, ⁠higher operating costs for oil companies and, ultimately, higher and more volatile prices at the pump.

SHADOW OF ITS FORMER SELF

It is premature to declare Opec dead. Riyadh will almost certainly seek to steady the group in the coming months and lean more heavily on its alliance with Russia to reassert authority.

Politically, though, the Iran war has left Opec in tatters. Iran’s bombardment of critical energy infrastructure belonging to fellow Opec members, particularly Saudi Arabia, combined with its decision to close Hormuz - once unthinkable - has created deep rifts ⁠within the group ​that may take years to heal, if they ever do.

The most notable thing about Sunday’s Opec+ meeting - which includes Russia - was not the announcement of ​a theoretical quota increase. It was the absence of the UAE.

Opec, as the world has long known it, is gone. Trump and others may eventually regret that.

A significant portion of Bangladesh’s population continues to face unmet healthcare needs, driven largely by rising out-of-pocket expenditures, according to a study of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies.Geographic Reference

Although unmet healthcare needs persist across all segments of society, the financial burden falls disproportionately on the poor, it showed.

The research by Abdur Razzaque Sarker of BIDS underscored that OOP spending remains the dominant mode of healthcare financing in the country, with its share reaching an alarming 79 per cent in 2024.

The study titled ‘Re-thinking unmet healthcare needs and dynamics of out-of-pocket expenditure in Bangladesh,’ was conducted under BIDS’ population studies division.

The study utilised data from the latest Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2022, comprising 14,400 households and 62,387 individuals where descriptive statistics were employed to analyses and summaries the percentage of unmet need, service utilisation across providers.

The distribution of benefits from public spending and progressivity/regressivity is assessed using benefit and financing incidence analysis.

The findings revealed that around 22 per cent of the population reported a need for healthcare services on a monthly basis. Among them, 15 per cent experienced unmet healthcare needs, accounting for 65 per cent of the total need.

Unmet needs were found to be significantly higher in rural areas compared to urban centres—68 per cent versus 59 per cent. Regionally, the highest levels of unmet need were recorded in Narail, 81 per cent, and Habiganj, 80 per cent, while the lowest was observed in Feni, 18 per cent.

On average, Bangladeshi households spend Tk 3,454 per month on healthcare, representing about 11 per cent of total household expenditure. Medicines and diagnostic services were identified as the primary cost drivers.

The study noted that while public healthcare services are relatively equitably utilised, private healthcare services remain disproportionately concentrated among wealthier groups.

Despite higher absolute spending among the rich, poorer households bear a significantly heavier financial burden.

Healthcare expenses account for about 35 per cent of total income for the poorest households, compared to just 5 per cent for the wealthiest, indicating a regressive healthcare financing system.

The heavy reliance on OOP payments often leads to catastrophic health expenditures, limiting access to necessary care and pushing vulnerable households further into poverty.

The study concluded that although unmet healthcare needs persist across all segments of society, the financial burden falls disproportionately on the poor.

To address these challenges, the researcher recommended urgent reforms in healthcare financing, particularly the development and implementation of risk-pooling mechanisms such as social health insurance.

Such measures, the study suggested, are essential for reducing inequality in healthcare access and achieving Universal Health Coverage in Bangladesh.

Job creation in Bangladesh is failing to keep pace with a rapidly expanding workforce, while nearly half of workers call for short-term technical training and more than half of young people report an urgent need for digital skills, according to the latest International Labour Organization report.Diaspora community forum

The findings also show that though 95.2 per cent of workers in Bangladesh rely on informal learning, the absence of its formal recognition left the vast majority of skills uncertified and undervalued.

The ILO on Tuesday launched its dedicated thematic publication, ‘The World of Work Report: Lifelong Learning and Skills for the Future,’ which painted an elaborate picture of the evolving labour market of Bangladesh.

It highlighted a growing imbalance between labour supply and demand, with new data pointing to significant gaps in job creation, skills development, and access to training.

While the country’s workforce continued to expand rapidly, investment in technical, digital, and work-based learning remained limited, raising concerns over long-term employability and economic resilience.

The report identified several priority areas that Bangladesh must address to future-proof its workforce amid structural shifts driven by digitalisation and the global transition towards greener economies.

Though, it noted, lifelong learning is widely recognised as essential, access to such opportunities remains highly unequal and restricted, particularly for vulnerable groups.

A detailed analysis of survey data revealed a substantial unmet demand for training.

Informal learning, primarily through hands-on experience, dominated the skills landscape, with participation reaching 95.2 per cent.

In contrast, only 12 per cent of the working-age population engaged in formal or non-formal education and training in 2025.

The report highlighted stark inequalities in access to training based on education levels.

Among adults with secondary education, 25.7 per cent participated in learning activities, compared with just 3.7 per cent of those without secondary education, it said.

Occupational differences are equally pronounced, with participation rates the highest among professionals at 36.9 per cent and technicians at 33.5 per cent, but falling sharply to only 3.5 per cent among workers in elementary occupations, the report said.

According to the report, formal sector workers are more than three times as likely to engage in structured learning, with participation at 37.2 per cent, compared with just 10.8 per cent among informal workers.

The survey findings also pointed to a clear demand for practical and future-oriented skills.

It mentioned that nearly 48.5 per cent of respondents identified short-term technical training as their most pressing need, reflecting a preference for targeted, job-relevant learning.

Digital literacy has emerged as a critical priority, particularly among younger workers, with more than half of those aged 15 to 24 expressing a need for training in digital and computer skills, it said.

According to the ILo report, non-formal training in Bangladesh at present is largely occupation-specific, accounting for 57 per cent of such programmes, followed by digital skills at 19.2 per cent and personal development at 15.5 per cent.Diaspora community forum

However, the report stressed that focusing solely on technical competencies was insufficient.

It said that employers were increasingly seeking ‘rounded’ skill profiles that combined technical expertise with cognitive abilities and socio-emotional skills such as communication, teamwork, and leadership.

Work-based learning, the report said, is a highly effective yet underutilised pathway for skills development, noting that around 72 per cent of respondents who had participated in apprenticeships or internships reported improved job performance as a direct result.

Despite this fact, it added, participation remained extremely low, with 93 per cent of respondents stating that they had not engaged in any work-based training over the past three years.

It further underscored the importance of recognising informal learning, given its near-universal prevalence, warning that without systems to validate skills acquired through experience, many workers, particularly those in the informal economy, remained excluded from better employment opportunities due to a lack of certification.

Drawing on worker surveys, online vacancy analysis, institutional data, and a review of 174 studies, the report warned that insufficient investment in inclusive learning systems could widen inequalities both within and between countries.

Aligning skills development with labour market demand, it argued, is essential to ensure that economic transformation benefits all segments of society.

‘Lifelong learning is the bridge between today’s jobs and tomorrow’s opportunities. It is not only about employability and productivity, but also about supporting decent work, driving true innovation, and building resilient societies,’ said ILO director general Gilbert F Houngbo.

The ILO findings also reflected global trends observed in Bangladesh, including increasing demand from employers for a combination of technical and soft skills.

ILO country director for Bangladesh Max Tuñón said that the report’s findings revealed several global trends that were also observed in Bangladesh, including employers’ demand for workers with a combination of technical and soft skills.

‘For that, we need to address the institutional fragmentation and work more closely with the private sector, to deliver quality training that meets the needs of a rapidly changing labour market,’ he said.

By addressing these gaps and aligning skills development systems with evolving labour market needs, the report recommended, Bangladesh could harness its demographic momentum to generate sustainable and decent employment while enhancing productivity and competitiveness across the economy.

High-speed travel across Dhaka seems no distant dream now as a multifaceted elevated expressway over the crammed capital gets the go-ahead after an updated feasibility study that estimates the cost at Tk 430 billion.
FE

The new government has in principle decided to construct the 39-kilometre Dhaka East-West Elevated Expressway (DEWEE) which is to connect three major national highways, including Dhaka-Chottagram with Dhaka-Aricha and Dhaka-Mawa through Narayanganj district, enabling traffic to pass through at a high speed.

Rail, Road Transport and Bridges and Shipping Minister Shaikh Rabiul Alam shared the BNP government's view on the megaproject at a stakeholder workshop organised Tuesday in the city to roll out the findings of the fresh feasibility study on the DEWEE.

State Minister for Road Transport and Bridges Razib Ahsan was also present as special guest.

The minister terms the project "highly necessary to bring positive transformation in the transport system" but lays importance on proper and timely implementation so the high-cost project does not become a burden on the country's economy. Globaleconomy insights

"The nearly 39-kilometre expressway is expected play role in improving regional connectivity by linking Chattogram, Sylhet, Barishal and Khulna divisions with northern regions without requiring traffic to pass through the main Dhaka city," he adds

The updated feasibility study proposes estimated cost of the DEWEE around Tk 430 billion which, however, suggests change in its original design to develop the elevated corridor with high-speed travel of up to 120km/h.

Civil-work part of the DEWEE project would require Tk 220 billion while Tk 140 billion would be needed for land acquisition and rehabilitation as 84 per cent of 804.61 acres of land along the route will be privately owned.

Bangladesh Bridges Authority (BBA) organised the stakeholder workshop at a city hotel after Infrastructure Investment Facilitation Company (IIFC) submitted the report as the transaction adviser to update previous study report.

After the first FS was completed in 2017, the DEWEE project was approved from the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs to develop the corridor under public- private partnership (PPP). Initiative to conduct the fresh study resumed in December 2024. GeographicReference

While presenting the key features of the DWEEE, BBA Chief Engineer Quazi Ferdous said corridor is proposed to be developed from Hemayetpur in Savar to Langalbandh in Narayanganj via Savar, Keraniganj, Fatullah, Siddhirganj and Bandar upazila.

The minister said, "The BNP is committed to developing various infrastructures necessary for the country without misuse of government funds centering causes like delay in land acquisition and implementation."

Chaired by Bridges Division Secretary Mohammad Abdur Rouf, the workshop was also addressed, among others, by Panel of Experts Prof M Shamim Z Bosunia, Roads and Highways Department Chief Engineer Syed Moinul Hasan and Managing Director of Mass Rapid Transit COmpay Ltd Md Shaugatul Alam.

Representatives from different government agencies and private sectors, including Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, shared their views on the feasibility-study findings, lying importance on integration with the 20-year Updating Revised Strategic Transport Plan.

Professor Mohammad Hadiuzzaman stresses setting a standard of the expressway, including elevated one, and suggests planning the expressway corridor in a way to have link with other expressways. Bangladeshbusiness directory

Other stakeholders point out the scope of limiting the inner and outer ring road as per the URSPT as the corridor is suggested over it.

Foreign investments in Bangladesh’s stock market plunged by 70 per cent over the past five years to $914.58 million at the end of December 2025, underscoring sustained capital outflows and a steady erosion of investor confidence.

Foreign equity holdings dropped sharply from $2,995 million in 2020 to $1,925 million in 2021, $1,263 million in 2022 and $1,085 million in 2023, before falling further to $865 million in 2024 and slightly recovering in 2025, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

The trend shows a continuous contraction, with the latest uptick failing to offset the steep losses accumulated over the period.

Data from Bangladesh Bank showed that total portfolio investment, combining equity and debt instruments, stood at $1.56 billion at the end of 2025, down from $4.731 billion in 2020.

The 8.5 per cent annual decline and a 25.1 per cent drop from 2023 indicate that foreign investors are reducing exposure not only to equities but also to fixed-income assets.

The contraction highlights a persistent retreat of foreign investors amid market volatility, macroeconomic pressure and governance concerns.

Equity securities, which dominate foreign portfolio holdings, accounted for $914.58 million, or 58.7 per cent of total portfolio investment.

While this segment posted a modest 5.7 per cent increase from 2024 levels, it remained significantly lower than 2020, indicating that the recovery is partial and fragile.

Transaction data further underscores the lack of investor confidence.

In 2025, foreign investors purchased $164.36 million worth of equities through non-resident investor accounts, while sales stood higher at $174.87 million.

This resulted in a net outflow of $10.51 million despite total transactions reaching $339.23 million.

The country’s stock market witnessed negative net investments for the last eight consecutive years.

The negative net investment signals that foreign investors are gradually exiting the market rather than expanding their positions.

Movements in non-resident investor’s taka accounts also reflect this trend.

Inflows dropped to $145.57 million in 2025, down 36.4 per cent from the previous year, while outflows remained significantly higher at $227.05 million.

The year-end balance in these accounts stood at only $22.44 million, indicating limited reinvestment.

Country-wise data shows a concentrated exposure, with the United States leading foreign equity investment at $391.85 million, accounting for 42.8 per cent of total holdings.

The United Kingdom followed with $187.35 million or 20.5 per cent, while the Cayman Islands held $114.92 million, representing 12.6 per cent.

The concentration suggests vulnerability to shifts in a few major investor bases.

Sector-wise, financial institutions, including banks, insurance and mutual funds, attracted the largest share of foreign investment at $429.54 million or 47 per cent.

Pharmaceuticals and chemicals accounted for $313.10 million or 34.2 per cent, while engineering and steel sectors held a much smaller portion at $54.31 million.

Experts said that the continued decline in portfolio investment reflects structural weaknesses in the capital market, including poor governance, limited depth and recurring instability.

Without reforms to improve transparency, strengthen regulation and restore investor confidence, foreign participation is unlikely to recover meaningfully.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ countries increased their oil production quota on Sunday in an expected move aimed at demonstrating continuity at the cartel after the shock withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates.

The seven major producers will add 188,000 barrels per day to their total production quota for June amid the price pressure unleashed by the Mideast war, as part of "their collective commitment to support oil market stability", according to a statement published by OPEC+.

The statement, following an online meeting of Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia, made no mention of the United Arab Emirates, which quit the body on Friday, three days after announcing its withdrawal.

Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told AFP that the silence on the UAE's departure was a sign of tense relations.

Oil market analysts had widely expected the increase of 188,000 barrels, similar to the 206,000-barrel daily increases OPEC+ announced in both March and April when the portion allotted to the UAE was subtracted.

"By sticking to the same production path -- just minus the UAE -- it's acting as if nothing has happened, deliberately downplaying internal fractures and projecting stability," Leon said.

Strait of Hormuz bottleneck remains

But raising the quota on paper may not have much impact on actual production, which is already short of the limit.

Untapped OPEC+ reserves are mainly located in the Gulf region, and exports there are trapped by the blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz, imposed by Iran in response to the US-Israeli strikes that started the war on February 28.

Leon, the Rystad Energy analyst, told AFP on Sunday that the cartel was looking to send "a two-layer message" that the UAE's exit would not disrupt how OPEC+ operates and that the group still exerts control over global oil markets despite massive disruption to oil trade due to the war.

"While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints," Leon told AFP. "This is less about adding barrels and more about signalling that OPEC+ still calls the shots."

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is hitting Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The latter's production will no longer count towards OPEC quotas.

"Total OPEC+ output with quota fell to 27.68 million bpd in March, against a monthly quota of 36.73 million bpd, a shortfall of approximately 9 million bpd driven almost entirely by war-related disruption rather than voluntary restraint," said Priya Walia, another analyst at Rystad Energy, ahead of Sunday's meeting.

Iran, whose exports are now the target of a retaliatory US blockade, is an OPEC+ member but is not subject to quotas.

Russia, the group's second-biggest producer, has been the main beneficiary of the situation. But despite soaring energy prices, it appears to be struggling to produce at the level of its current quotas as its own war in Ukraine drags on and Ukrainian drones hit oil industry facilities.

'A big deal'

Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler, described the UAE's exist as "a big deal" for OPEC.

Previous withdrawals from the group by Qatar in 2019 and Angola in 2023 were less significant by comparison, Bakr told a video conference on the UAE withdrawal.

The UAE has invested massively in infrastructure in recent years, and state-owned oil company ADNOC plans to increase output by five million barrels a day by 2027 -- far above the country's last quota of around 3.5 million barrels.

ADNOC also pledged on Sunday to spend $55 billion on new projects over the next two years, confirming that the company is "accelerating growth and delivery of its strategy".

There is also the risk for OPEC+ that other countries will leave such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have faced repeated accusations of surpassing their quotas.

The government launches a broad-based drive to augment revenue receipts outside the NBR purview with a target of netting Tk 910 billion for the forthcoming fiscal year, as a bigger budget is imminent.
FE

Official count shows the amount for the fiscal 2026-27 is 39.5-percent higher from that of the outgoing fiscal year's target.

Of the total sum, the Finance Division is set to fix a non-tax revenue target of Tk 660 billion, up from Tk 460 billion in the current fiscal year, 2025-26, while the target for non-NBR taxes is expected to be raised to Tk 250 billion from Tk 190 billion.

Non-tax revenue is expected to rise by 43.48 per cent while Non-NBR tax collection is projected to increase by 31.58 per cent in the next fiscal year, reveals a proposal placed at the Budget Monitoring and Resource Committee meeting recently hosted by the Finance Division.

The just-in government is deemed under tremendous pressure to increase revenue collection to create requisite fiscal space for funding poor people's needs.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) wants Bangladesh substantially enhances its tax-to-GDP ratio to 9.21 per cent by next fiscal year from the current rate of 6.9 per cent.

To achieve the targeted tax-to-GDP ratio of 9.21 the government is going to set total revenue-collection target at Tk 6.95 trillion for the upcoming fiscal year, up by 23.23 per cent from the original one for the current fiscal year.

A review of internal government data, however, shows actual non-tax revenue collection has consistently lagged behind budgetary targets, with performance deteriorating in recent years.

In FY2023-24, actual receipts came to just 55.63 per cent of the original target, down from 70.47 per cent in FY 2018-19.

Officials say the latest push focuses on modernising collection systems, rationalising fees, expanding revenue bases, and enforcing stricter process for recovery of government dues.

The non-NBR tax collection exceeded 80 per cent of the targets on average in FY2016-17 and FY2017-18, but in the subsequent years, receipts from this segment fell to nearly 40 per cent of the original budgetary targets.

The Finance Division has recommended that all ministries and divisions focus on modernised and automated revenue collection, mandatory use of A-challan, rationalisation of outdated fees, and expansion of revenue bases ahead of the national budget formulation.

In tripartite meetings held with various ministries during the budget-preparation process in last few weeks, the Finance Division also emphasised "stricter enforcement, improved asset management, and recovery of long-pending government dues, particularly in sectors such as transport, housing, and infrastructure where collection performance remains weak".

At the core of the recommendations is a push for ministry-specific accountability through realistic target setting, stronger governance, and data-driven reforms aimed at reducing revenue leakages and improving overall fiscal sustainability, according to an analysis of the minutes of 18 such meetings.

The minutes reveal that the Ministry of Food will be the largest contributor of non-tax revenues in the next fiscal year, with a recommended target of Tk 226.35 billion, largely driven by food-grain sales.

Major non-tax revenue sources include licence fees, fines and penalties, forfeiture of deposits, rent from non-residential buildings, government vehicle-usage fees, and proceeds from the sale of tender and other documents, though collection efficiency remains suboptimal.

The Finance Division has recommended reviewing these revenue streams, expanding their coverage, and rationally adjusting fees and charges, with the Finance Secretary noting that such reforms could "significantly improve overall revenue mobilisation".

Road Transport and Highways Division (RTHD) has been assigned to mobilise Tk 67.87 billion, but concerns persist over the weak collection by agencies like the Roads and Highways Department (RHD) and Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA).

The authorities have been advised to strengthen enforcement of vehicle registration and fitness certification and modernise toll-collection systems, claiming that a 25-percent hike in BRTA fees in December 2022 fails to ensure revenue growth.

The division has also been asked to recover Tk 12.85 billion in outstanding dues from Bangladesh Road Transport Corporation (BRTC).

The Ministry of Industries, with a target of Tk 10.42 billion, has been experiencing declining collection and has been advised to automate revenue processes and expand coverage. The Ministry of Housing and Public Works has been flagged for a sharp drop in rental income and asked to incorporate additional sources like transfer and mutation fees into its estimates.

In contrast, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has seen its revenue target sharply revised upward to Tk 1.0 billion from Tk 181.8 million after recent collections exceeded earlier projections.

Smaller ministries, including Women and Children Affairs and Social Welfare, have been instructed to revise outmoded fee structures.

The review also has highlighted governance concerns, particularly in the Bridges Division, where outstanding government loans amounting to around Tk 8.0 billion remain unsettled, including some agreements dating back to 1994.

Officials note a structural shift in revenue composition, with non-tax revenue gaining prominence as non-NBR taxes continue to under-perform.

"Boosting government revenue requires equal emphasis on both tax and non-tax streams -- from within and beyond the National Board of Revenue as non-NBR sources should account for a quarter of total receipts," says Prof Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

He told The Financial Express that significant inefficiencies persist in revenue collection, noting that in many cases tolls or rents due to the government are leased out to private parties at lower rates, leading to revenue losses. FinancialNews Subscription

"While discussions often focus on expanding the tax base or leveraging technology in tax administration, equal importance should be given to addressing leakages and structural weaknesses in non-tax revenue streams," he suggests.

Expressing concern over the performance of state-owned corporations and industrial enterprises, he says it is important to examine why many public entities have been incurring losses for decades.

Development cooperation, trade and regional security issues besides Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's possible China visit may come up prominently during discussion between foreign minister Khalilur Rahman and top Chinese officials.
FE

The foreign minister starts for Beijing today (Tuesday) for talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, as both countries seek to recalibrate relations amid shifting geopolitical and domestic dynamics.

Scheduled for May 5-7, the visit at the invitation of China's foreign ministry is expected to cover a wide-ranging agenda inclusive of possible future visit to China by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman.

There are speculations in the diplomatic circles that such a top-level visit may take place by July this year.

The Chinese government has extended invitation to Tarique Rahman for a visit to China, soon after he became prime minister in February this year.

However, regarding the trip of the foreign minister to Beijing, officials say this visit could serve as an important avenue for positive engagement.

"In light of the new context and evolving global realities, both sides will have to define the contours of their relationship in the coming days," one of the diplomatic sources notes.

Although Beijing has maintained strong interest in Bangladesh, it had limited engagement with the previous interim administration. With an elected government now in place, Chinese officials are expected to pursue deeper cooperation, building on past experience with the current leadership.

At the same time, the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) may need to reassess its approach to China after a prolonged period out of power.

Officials in Dhaka and Beijing have outlined key priorities for the talks. Bangladesh is expected to push for progress on the modernisation of Mongla Port, the expansion of agricultural exports such as jackfruit, and the launch of direct flights on Guangzhou-Chattogram and Shanghai-Chattogram routes. City& Local Guides

Other issues likely to feature talks include the relocation of Chinese industries, development of Chinese-backed economic zones, and renewed efforts to address the Rohingya crisis.

Dhaka is also expected to seek Beijing's support for its candidacy for the presidency of the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly.

China, one of Bangladesh's largest development partners, is likely to emphasise cooperation on the proposed Teesta megaproject, alongside broader engagement under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Beijing may also seek to expand its strategic influence through initiatives such as the Global Development Initiative, in the changing global paradigm.

Regional issues are also expected to be on the agenda, including the situation in Myanmar and the wider implications of instability in the Middle East.

Diplomatic sources in Dhaka say Bangladesh could seek about US$2.0 billion in financial assistance from China to address urgent energy needs and support economic stability. The issue may be raised during the visit.

A planned meeting between the two countries' foreign secretaries in Dhaka last month was postponed at Beijing's request, officials have said, with preparation for the ministerial visit continuing.

In a statement Monday, China's foreign ministry described the two countries as "traditional friendly neighbours and comprehensive strategic partners", noting that relations have developed steadily over more than five decades on the basis of mutual respect and equality.

"China attaches great importance to China-Bangladesh relations and is willing to take this visit as an opportunity to work with the new Bangladeshi government to enhance political mutual trust and deepen exchanges and cooperation in various fields," a spokesperson says, adding that Beijing aims to promote high-quality Belt and Road cooperation and further advance the comprehensive strategic partnership.

The 59th annual meeting of the Board of Governors of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) opened today, with its President Masato Kanda urging countries in Asia and the Pacific to “act together to develop together” through stronger cross-border connections to secure the next generation’s future.

“The decisions we make at this new crossroads will secure the future for the next generation,” he told the opening session in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

“In this fragmented world, traditional and isolated development responses will fail. To survive and thrive in this new era, we must build deeply connected and resilient systems,” he said.

More than 4,000 participants, including policymakers, private sector leaders, development partners, and innovators from over 100 countries, are attending the meeting under the theme “Crossroads of Progress: Advancing the Region’s Connected Future.”

From Bangladesh, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, Economic Relations Division Secretary Md Shahriar Kader Siddiky, and senior officials are attending the event.

Kanda highlighted how shocks now travel rapidly across borders—through energy markets, supply chains, and digital networks—hitting communities least able to absorb them. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated regional solutions that go beyond national boundaries, he said.

The ADB is responding by scaling up investments and accelerating reforms to help countries integrate infrastructure, markets, and institutions across the region, he added.

Kanda noted that the ADB has moved decisively to provide crisis-response support to its members during the ongoing Middle East conflict, becoming the first development partner to offer financial assistance to affected countries, which are expected to face heightened economic pressures.

Last year, the ADB provided $29.3 billion in financial support to the region while implementing reforms to deliver assistance more quickly and at scale.

The ADB president cited the launch of a $70 billion initiative to build regional systems, including $50 billion for a pan-Asian power grid to integrate renewable energy across borders, enhance energy security, and lower emissions.

Another $20 billion initiative aims to expand cross-border digital connectivity and narrow the region’s digital divide.

Kanda described the ADB as “an anchor of stability,” uniquely positioned to help steer the region through geopolitical fragmentation, conflict, economic disruptions, and escalating environmental stress.

“ADB is the main bank for the region. We have an unmatched regional mandate,” he said.

However, the ADB’s work is far from finished, Kanda added, noting that the bank will leverage its operational capabilities as a financier, advisor, and mobiliser to address challenges such as mobilising private sector funds for development and reversing environmental degradation.

“The work ahead is immense, but our purpose is clear. We have the strategy. We have the resources. We have the collective will to execute,” he said.

Founded in 1966, the ADB is a multilateral development bank supporting inclusive, resilient, and sustainable growth across Asia and the Pacific. It is owned by 69 members, including 50 from the region.

Bangladesh joined the ADB in 1973. As of December 31, 2025, the ADB had committed 758 public sector loans, grants, and technical assistance totalling $35.6 billion to Bangladesh. Its current public sector portfolio in the country includes 57 loans and 4 grants worth $9.5 billion, according to the ADB.

At dawn in a small village in Bhuapur, Tangail, Alamgir Hossain used to open his poultry sheds to the clamor of thousands of chickens; now the silence inside now says more than the noise ever did.

Alamgir, who once oversaw a thriving operation producing 10,000 eggs daily, has been forced to shutter half of his sheds – the quiet has come to reflect a business he can no longer sustain. After more than two decades in poultry farming, he says the numbers no longer add up.

"It costs me around Tk10 to produce an egg, but I often have to sell it at Tk8. I can't survive with losses month after month. Many around me have already quit. I may have to shut down too."

His experience mirrors a broader strain across Bangladesh's poultry sector, where small and medium farmers are struggling to stay afloat amid rising costs and limited returns.

Industry insiders say production costs have more than doubled over the past five years: what once cost Tk100 now costs Tk210 or more. Meanwhile, Bangladesh Poultry Industries Association (BPIA) data states that growth in the sector has slowed from 4.5% to about 3.2% during the same period.

Feed has become the dominant expense, accounting for 80–85% of total production costs, according to farmers. At the same time, higher corporate taxes, advance income tax (AIT), and turnover tax have added further pressure in the current fiscal year.

Shafiqul Islam, a farmer from Bhaluka in Mymensingh, closed his 15,000-bird farm last year. "I used to buy a sack of feed for Tk2,100. Now it costs over Tk3,500. With loan instalments and electricity bills, I couldn't continue," he said. "I had to sell land to repay debts."

Rubina Akter from Monohardi in Narsingdi described a similar struggle. "I started this farm to support my daughters' education. Now I can barely run the household," she said.

Feed prices outpace market returns

Farmers say the sharp rise in feed prices has not been matched by increases in egg and chicken prices, leaving them squeezed between input costs and market rates.

Feed prices have risen by 60-65% over five years, from around Tk2,000-2,200 per sack in 2020 to Tk3,500-3,600 in 2025. In contrast, wholesale egg prices have increased by only 20-25%, from Tk6-7 to Tk8-9 per piece.

Broiler prices show a similar pattern. Wholesale prices rose from Tk120-130 per kg in 2020 to Tk140-150 in 2025 – an increase of just 15-20%, far below the rise in production costs.

"This gap is killing us," said Abdul Kader, a farmer from Chandina in Cumilla. "Feed costs have nearly doubled, but chicken prices haven't. Sometimes we can't even recover costs. Small farmers will disappear if this continues."

Tax changes deepen the strain

Farmers and industry leaders say recent tax hikes have worsened the situation.

According to the National Board of Revenue (NBR), corporate tax for poultry-related companies has been raised from 15% to 27.5% this fiscal year. AIT has increased from 1% to 5%, while turnover tax has gone up from 0.6% to 1%.

Mosharraf Hossain Chowdhury, president of the BPIA, said the effects of the tax changes have been immediate. "The tax hike has a chain effect. Feed companies have increased prices, pushing up production costs," he said.

Farmers estimate that producing one kilogram of broiler now costs around Tk146, while wholesale prices hover between Tk145 and Tk148, leaving little or no margin.

The concerns were raised before NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan last month at a pre-budget meeting at the revenue board. Responding to the industry's claims, he said the tax adjustments were part of broader reform measures.

"Our goal was to rationalise the tax structure and increase revenue collection. Many sectors had long enjoyed tax benefits, which needed review," he said.

He added that the government is aware of the sector's difficulties and may consider adjustments in the next budget.

Higher taxes than regional peers

Industry leaders argue that Bangladesh's poultry sector faces a heavier tax burden than competitors in the region.

BPIA President Mosharraf said Thailand offers five to eight years of full tax exemption for feed industries, Malaysia waives sales tax on feed raw materials, India imposes no advance income tax on imports, and Nepal provides tax relief on key feed inputs.

Dr Ripon Kumar Mondal, a professor of agricultural economics at Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University, stressed the urgency of reducing feed costs. "Without reducing feed prices, the poultry sector cannot survive. Taxes and duties on imported raw materials must be lowered," he said.

Experts have also suggested cutting corporate tax to 10% and aligning turnover tax with actual profits to help revive the sector.

According to industry leaders, an estimated 60-70 lakh people are directly and indirectly employed in the poultry sector, underlining the wider economic stakes.

Safir Rahman, secretary general of the BPIA, warned of deeper consequences if policy support does not follow. "Without policy support in the next budget, new investment will stop. Existing farmers will leave. Eggs and chicken will become unaffordable for ordinary people," he said.

For Alamgir, the crisis has already moved beyond statistics. "If we cannot survive, there will be no eggs in the market," he said. "Then what will people eat?"

On a single factory floor in Araihazar, around 200 workers – most of them women – sit in a structured production line, placing individual hair strands, sewing, and assembling frames. The finished products, high-quality customised wigs, are shipped to Japan and Singapore.

This is Artnature Bangladesh Limited, one of three companies already in production at the Bangladesh Special Economic Zone (BSEZ), a 1,000-acre industrial development jointly backed by the governments of Bangladesh and Japan, located in Narayanganj's Araihazar.

The scene on the factory floor is modest in scale but significant in signal. BSEZ, also known as the Japanese economic zone, is no longer just a plan on paper.

At least 12 local and foreign companies have secured land in the zone, with combined proposed investments of around $353.4 million. Three are already in production, while around 30 more firms from various countries are in the pipeline.

Active development work was observed during a visit to the site on 9 April. In areas where production has begun, well-constructed internal roads are in place. In plots yet to be built on, wide roads and drainage systems have already been laid.

The Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (Beza) has handed over around 230 acres to BSEZ so far, with another 220 acres due for transfer within the year.

"The entire area has already been filled and prepared for industrial use," a Beza official said.

Investors span a broad range of industries – home appliances, textile chemicals, FMCG, food processing, hair accessories, and packaging – suggesting BSEZ is developing as a diversified industrial hub rather than a single-sector cluster.

Who are already operating

Singer Bangladesh Limited, acquired by Turkey-based Koç Group in 2019, leads in both scale and investment. Allocated 33.4 acres, the company has proposed an investment of $78 million, of which $56.3 million has already been realised.

Starting operations from 2024, it operates in the home appliances segment and represents the zone's largest single operational presence.

Japan-based Lion Kallol Limited has begun production in the FMCG sector on 8.4 acres, with $7.6 million invested out of a planned $19.4 million. Its initial product lineup includes Mama Lemon Liquid Dish Wash and Systema Toothbrush, with plans to gradually expand its household and personal care range. It began factory operations in March this year.

Artnature rounds out the trio, having realised $9 million of a planned $20 million investment on 4.9 acres. Beyond its production floor, the factory also houses research and development operations, with staff working on customised product design. Artnature began its operations in November 2025.

"We are currently operating as a 100% export-oriented company," said factory General Manager Md Tanvir Rahman. "We plan to expand into raw fiber processing in the future."

He added that while a domestic market for ready-made wigs exists in Bangladesh, Artnature targets the customised segment, an area not yet well established locally.

Who are next

Germany's Rudolf Bangladesh Limited and Japan's Nicca Bangladesh are entering the textile chemicals sector. Rudolf has invested $2.5 million of a planned $20 million, while Nicca has committed $5 million of a planned $7 million.

In food processing, UK-Bangladesh joint venture Pladis ACI Bangladesh Limited is preparing to begin construction on 7.2 acres, with $3 million invested out of a proposed $27 million.

Chinese investors are making a particularly significant push. BSN (Bangladesh) Packaging Company is planning an $80 million project on 9.3 acres, the largest single proposed investment in the zone, with $6.5 million already committed. Leaders Label Material (Bangladesh) has invested $3 million of a planned $25 million.

Sweden's Nilorn Bangladesh (U-2) Limited. has committed $15 million on 2.47 acres. Japan's Bengal Iris Takumi., specialising in textile accessories, has invested $2 million of a planned $7 million. A local Bangladeshi company has secured 5 acres, planning a $25 million investment.

The infrastructure question

For manufacturing investors, infrastructure readiness is often the difference between a signed agreement and an operational factory. On this front, BSEZ is making progress though not everything is in place yet.

Electricity supply is connected to the national grid, and a dedicated 230-kilovolt substation is under development to improve power quality and reliability. Water supply and treatment facilities are fully operational. Natural gas, critical for energy-intensive industries, is the remaining piece.

BSEZ Managing Director Chiharu Tagawa said a government-installed gas supply station has been prepared and that supply is expected to reach the zone by mid-2026.

"Once supply becomes available, it will significantly improve efficiency for energy-intensive industries," he added. Until then, the gas connection remains a limiting factor and one that investors in heavy manufacturing will be watching closely.

Post-election momentum

Tagawa said investor interest picked up significantly following Bangladesh's national election, with inquiries now coming from more than 30 companies.

"We cannot count exactly, but 30 companies from different countries – including US, China, Japan, and Korea – are now interested in BSEZ. Day by day, it is increasing," he said.

Key areas of interest include home appliances, motorcycle parts, batteries, FMCG, and consumer goods. Tagawa attributed the interest to Bangladesh's large domestic market, export potential, and the operational advantages of a dedicated economic zone.

Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (Bida) and Beza Executive Chairman Ashik Chowdhury echoed that assessment, noting that large-scale commitments tend to generate further interest.

"Such large-scale investments create a positive signalling effect. We already have several major investment proposals in the pipeline, which are under discussion. We expect significant progress in investment inflows this year," he said.

The bigger picture

BSEZ has created around 3,000 jobs to date. The long-term target is to accommodate 90-100 companies across the full 1,000 acres within the next six to seven years, with total investment expected to reach $1-2 billion.

Around 268 acres remain available for allocation. Beza Deputy Secretary Mohammad Zakaria Mithu said the focus is now on converting interest into implementation.

The ground-level reality at BSEZ today – operational factories, roads laid through empty plots, gas infrastructure nearly ready – reflects a zone that has moved past its early stage but still has most of its story left to write.

Whether the 30-plus companies in the pipeline translate into the next wave of operational companies will determine whether BSEZ becomes the industrial landmark both governments envisioned.

Bangladesh has sought expanded support from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) as geopolitical tensions, inflation, and supply chain disruptions have increased the country’s energy-related expenditures by an estimated $3 billion.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury made the plea at a session of the Board of Governors at the 59th annual meeting of ADB in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Some 47 countries, including Bangladesh, made their presentations at the session.

The finance minister reminded participants that they are meeting at a time of heightened global uncertainty.

“Geopolitical tensions, inflation, tighter financial conditions, and supply chain disruptions are reshaping development trajectories,” he said.

For Bangladesh, a highly energy-deficient country that relies on imports, the conflict in the Middle East has further intensified energy and trade pressures.

Chowdhury said this has resulted in an estimated additional $3 billion in energy-related expenditures, raising external financing needs for the South Asian country.

“We appreciate ADB’s timely budget support for macroeconomic stability and request that countercyclical financing instruments remain available should global risks escalate,” he said.

He noted Bangladesh’s high vulnerability to climate change and urged the ADB to expand concessional climate financing as floods, cyclones, salinity intrusion, and sea-level rise continue to threaten livelihoods and infrastructure.

“We seek expanded concessional climate finance for adaptation and mitigation, including resilient infrastructure, climate-smart agriculture, disaster risk reduction, and nature-based solutions.”

As Bangladesh aims to generate 20 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2030, he also requested ADB’s leadership in the Bangladesh Climate Development Partnership to advance renewable energy, ecosystem restoration, and river and canal rehabilitation.

He said Bangladesh remains firmly committed to reform-driven development. “Our priorities include energy and food security, financial resilience, revenue modernisation, connectivity, export diversification, digital transformation, skills, jobs, social protection, and balanced regional development.”

“We also welcome support for regional connectivity through SASEC (South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation) and wider links among SAARC and with ASEAN countries to strengthen supply chains and expand trade and investment opportunities,” he said.

He stressed the mobilisation of private capital and blended finance, renewable energy, urban development, and digital development for stronger regional crisis response capacity and deeper energy cooperation.

Bangladesh also emphasised enhanced support for AI readiness and future skills, and greater focus on job creation in emerging sectors.

Chowdhury also cited Bangladesh’s challenges in hosting a significant population of forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals on humanitarian grounds and sought ADB’s enhanced support for both displaced populations and host communities.

The finance minister sought ADB’s continued support for timely project delivery and capacity building.

He said Bangladesh encourages ADB to support transformative investments that deepen the country’s regional connectivity, modernise infrastructure, ensure energy security, and strengthen digital and logistics capacity.

“This can boost productivity, unlock the potential of our north-south corridors, create jobs in emerging industries, and reduce poverty and regional disparities.”

Wondering whether you can find better investment returns than the US stock market without turning your portfolio into a guessing game?

Right now, you can.

Using the latest justETF country rankings from 3 May 2026, we found a clear group of overseas markets beating the S&P 500 on the 2026 return table. We have centred this page on eight that are practical for US readers who use country ETFs and broader international ETFs.

We will show you where the returns are, what is driving them, and how to think about the risk before you buy.

Which countries currently outperform US stock market?

If you want the short answer, several countries are ahead of the US stock market right now. On justETF's country table updated on 3 May 2026, the S&P 500 shows a 2026 return of 6.14% in euro terms, and each market below sits above that line.

That gives you a clean scoreboard, but it does not equal your exact dollar return in a US brokerage account. Currency moves, local market hours and the specific ETF you choose can all shift the result.

Use the 2026 column for the clearest "right now" comparison.
Use the 1-year figure to see whether the move has depth.
Check the ETF structure because an 81-stock fund behaves very differently from a 178-stock fund.

Market

2026 return

1-year return

Popular US-listed ETF

Quick read

United States

6.14%

25.41%

SPY

Your benchmark

South Korea

62.04%

65.39%

EWY

Huge momentum, heavy AI and semiconductor exposure

Taiwan

41.27%

38.78%

EWT

Strong chip-cycle exposure, higher valuation

Turkey

26.36%

24.53%

TUR

Strong gains, very uneven ride

Brazil

22.30%

27.98%

EWZ

Cheaper market, income support, cyclical risk

Mexico

10.46%

35.84%

EWW

Concentrated market tied closely to North America

Japan

9.56%

26.50%

EWJ

Broader market, lower volatility than most on this list

Poland

9.15%

33.26%

EPOL

Value and yield, but very concentrated

Canada

8.49%

34.80%

EWC

Familiar market structure, moderate risk

Quick takeaway: You do not need to chase only the hottest emerging markets. This list includes both high-octane moves, such as South Korea, and steadier developed markets, such as Japan and Canada, which gives you more than one way to diversify a global portfolio.

Why is South Korea a strong investment choice right now?

South Korea is the clear leader. It is up 62.04% for 2026 and 65.39% over one year on the justETF table, which is far ahead of the United States and even ahead of most other emerging markets.

In a March 2026 market note, iShares highlighted South Korea's role in AI infrastructure and semiconductor manufacturing, and its EWY fund gives you exposure to names such as Samsung, SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor and KB Financial.\

That is powerful if you want direct access to the hardware side of the AI revolution, but EWY held only 81 stocks on 1 May 2026 and showed a three-year standard deviation of 34.38%, so this is better used as a tactical position than as the centre of your portfolio.

Best fit: investors who want direct exposure to the AI supply chain.
Main risk: big swings, because this market can move much faster than the S&P 500.

What makes Taiwan's market returns attractive?

Taiwan sits in second place, with a 2026 return of 41.27% and a one-year return of 38.78%. If you want a market that benefits when global demand for advanced chips stays strong, Taiwan is one of the cleanest country ETF ideas you can buy.

The US-listed EWT fund held 85 stocks on 1 May 2026 and carried a five-star Morningstar rating as of 30 April 2026, which tells you the recent risk-adjusted record has been strong. The trade-off is price: its portfolio P/E stood at 26.52, so you are paying up for quality and momentum.

How is Turkey delivering better investment returns?

Turkey is up 26.36% for 2026 on the justETF ranking, which keeps it comfortably ahead of the US. That makes it one of the strongest momentum markets on this page.

The diversification case is real, too. TUR showed a three-year beta of 0.30, so it has not simply copied the path of US stocks, yet its three-year standard deviation was still 26.90%, which tells you the ride can be rough.

Why it can help: it can add a return stream that behaves differently from a US-heavy portfolio.
Why it can hurt: local volatility and currency risk can wipe out gains very quickly.

Why consider investing in Brazil at present?

Brazil's 2026 return stands at 22.30%, with a 27.98% one-year gain and a 46.41% three-year return. For readers who want emerging markets exposure without paying growth-stock multiples, Brazil deserves a serious look.

EWZ held 46 stocks on 1 May 2026, carried a portfolio P/E of 11.43 and had a trailing yield of 4.32%. In simple terms, you are buying a cheaper market with meaningful income, but you are also taking on heavy exposure to banks, commodities and the domestic cycle.

Why does Mexico belong on this list?

Mexico is not in the top four, yet it still beats the US stock market with a 10.46% gain on the justETF table. I like it for readers who want foreign exposure that still feels closely linked to North American manufacturing and consumer demand.

EWW had 40 holdings on 1 May 2026, a 0.50% expense ratio and a four-star Morningstar rating, while its one-year total return was 53.20% as of 31 March 2026. That is appealing if you want a tighter, more focused country fund and you can handle the concentration.

Best fit: investors who want international exposure without moving too far from the US economic orbit.
Watch out for: a narrow stock base, because 40 holdings can magnify sector moves.

What factors make Japan a calmer winner?

Japan offers a different kind of outperformance. The 2026 return is 9.56%, which is far less dramatic than South Korea, but it still tops the US and does so with a broader market base.

EWJ held 178 stocks on 1 May 2026, its three-year standard deviation was 13.13%, and its expense ratio was 0.49%. If you want developed markets exposure that does not lean so hard on one story, Japan is one of the steadier country ETFs on this list. If currency swings worry you, HEWJ is the hedged version, though the fee is higher.

Why is Poland worth a closer look?

Poland has a 2026 return of 9.15% and a one-year return of 33.26%, so it clearly earns a place here. It can suit investors who want European exposure without defaulting to larger benchmarks such as Germany, France or the United Kingdom.

EPOL is a focused fund, with just 33 holdings, a portfolio P/E of 12.10 and a trailing yield of 4.67% on 1 May 2026. That combination can look attractive if you like value and income, but each major holding has a lot of influence over your result.

What stands out: one of the stronger yields in this group.
Main risk: concentration, because 33 holdings leave little room to hide.

How does Canada round out the list?

Canada closes the eight-country shortlist with an 8.49% 2026 return and a 34.80% one-year gain. For many US investors, it is the easiest international market to hold because the market structure feels familiar and the risk is easier to read.

EWC held 84 stocks on 1 May 2026, had a three-year standard deviation of 14.20% and charged 0.50%. That makes Canada a useful middle ground: more diversified than Brazil or Poland, less volatile than South Korea or Turkey, and still ahead of the US stock market in 2026.

How should you use these markets in a portfolio?

You do not need eight country ETFs in one account. In a March 2026 update, iShares said flows into single-country ETFs had already exceeded the total for all of 2025, led by South Korea and Brazil, which shows real investor interest, but interest and good portfolio design are not the same thing.

A simpler investment strategy usually works better. Use broad international ETFs for the core of your global portfolio, then add a country ETF only when you have a clear reason for it.

Use VXUS or IXUS as a base if you want broad developed markets and emerging markets exposure outside the United States.
Add one country ETF for a clear theme, such as South Korea for AI hardware or Japan for a steadier developed-market tilt.
Keep currency in mind, because the justETF scoreboard is in euros while your brokerage account is in dollars.
Check concentration before you buy, because a 33-stock fund is a very different risk from a 178-stock fund.

Final words

The US stock market still deserves a core place in most portfolios, but it is not leading every race right now. On the latest justETF ranking, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Japan, Poland and Canada all offer better investment returns than the US stock market on the 2026 table.

If you want to act on that, keep it simple: use international ETFs for your base, add country ETFs only when the case is clear, and respect currency and concentration risk. That is how you stay diversified without turning your global portfolio into a pile of hot trades.

FAQs
1. Which countries beat the US stock market right now?

Poland, Canada, Greece, South Africa, Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom are showing higher returns than the US market at the moment.
2. Why are these places doing well now?

Some have cheap stocks, some have strong exports, and some ride a rebound in demand, for example Spain and New Zealand have tourism gains, Peru sees commodity lifts, and Israel shows tech strength.
3. Are emerging markets like Colombia, Chile, Indonesia, or Pakistan worth the risk?

They can pay off, but they move fast, and volatility is high, so only add them if you can take sharp swings; Norway also pops up for its oil and safe balance sheet.
4. Who has pointed this out, and is this a deep crash like the great depression?

Analysts such as Steven Cress have flagged the trend, and no, this is not a new great depression, it is a market shift, short of a long, deep slump in broad economies; Sweden and Switzerland show calm in parts of Europe.
5. How should I act on this news?

Think funds or ETFs that cover Poland, Canada or the others, spread risk, set a time plan, and check local rules; if you want safety, mix in blue chips from Italy or Austria, and keep an eye on news.

MJL Bangladesh PLC, a leading lubricant and energy company, reported a 27% drop in consolidated net profit in the first nine months of FY26, primarily due to lower revenue and the withdrawal of key tax benefits.

According to the company's unaudited financial statements for the July-March period, the consolidated net profit dropped to Tk187.23 crore, down from Tk256.21 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year.

This downturn significantly impacted the company's earnings per share (EPS), which settled at Tk5.91 at the end of the first three quarters, compared to Tk8.09 during the same period a year earlier.

The company's consolidated net revenue also experienced an 8% decline, falling to Tk3,016 crore from Tk3,263 crore.

Management attributed the earnings slump to a combination of an 8% decline in revenue, a rise in minimum tax from 0.6% to 1%, and the withdrawal of a tax exemption on its oil tanker operations.

Standalone net profit also fell by over 17%, largely driven by the reduced profitability of the oil tanker segment.

However, the company posted a strong rebound in the third quarter. In January-March 2026, MJL's consolidated net profit rose 44% to Tk65 crore, supported by an 18% surge in revenue, which climbed to Tk1,148 crore, alongside a reduction in finance costs.

MJL Bangladesh, known for its state-of-the-art lube oil blending plant, remains a dominant provider of high-performance lubricants and energy solutions in the local market, while also maintaining an active presence in international exports.

MJL Bangladesh shares price edged up by 0.68% today (4 May) to reach at Tk88.70 at the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

Bangladeshi garment exporters will today ask visiting US trade officials in Dhaka to clarify how a promised zero reciprocal tariff will apply to apparel made with American cotton and other US textile inputs.

The provision is included in the US-Bangladesh Agreement on Reciprocal Trade signed in February this year, but exporters say they have yet to benefit from it.

“We will raise this issue with the USTR high-ups in the meeting tomorrow [Tuesday],” said Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA).

A delegation from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), led by Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch, will visit Dhaka from May 5 to May 7.

In a statement issued ahead of the visit, the US Embassy in Dhaka said the United States looks forward to partnering on the implementation of the reciprocal trade agreement. The delegation is expected to discuss ways to strengthen trade and investment ties.

Under Article 5.3 of the reciprocal trade agreement, the United States commits to establishing a mechanism allowing certain textile and apparel goods from Bangladesh to enter the American market at a zero reciprocal tariff rate.

The deal says that a to be specified volume of apparel and textile imports from Bangladesh may qualify for the reduced rate. That volume will be determined in relation to the quantity of US-produced cotton and man-made fibre textile inputs exported to Bangladesh.

However, BGMEA President Khan said Bangladesh is not currently enjoying the benefits in the US market.

He said the zero-duty facility would be the main agenda at the scheduled meeting between the visiting officials and BGMEA leaders in Dhaka.

A senior commerce ministry official said the USTR delegation will also meet Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir at the secretariat today. Discussions are expected to cover the reciprocal trade deal, broader bilateral trade matters, labour rights and intellectual property.

The USTR is currently conducting two investigations covering 60 countries, including Bangladesh. One is about forced labour in industrial units, while the other relates to industrial overcapacity that could hurt the US manufacturers.

In a position paper submitted to the commerce ministry recently, BGMEA said the Bangladesh garment industry does not have overproduction capacity that could harm the American manufacturing sector and is free from forced labour, as exporters comply with internationally recognised labour laws.

The association said that in a market-driven economy, production levels constantly adjust to shifts in demand, input costs and supply chain conditions. Determining “excess capacity” without clear parameters or methodology is a major challenge.

According to USTR data, US goods trade with Bangladesh totalled an estimated $11.8 billion in 2025. US imports from Bangladesh stood at $9.5 billion, up 13.3 percent from 2024, while US exports to Bangladesh were $2.3 billion, up 1.4 percent.

The US goods trade deficit with Bangladesh was $7.1 billion in 2025, a 17.9 percent increase from the previous year.

Garments account for 86 percent of Bangladesh’s exports to the United States.

In its position paper, BGMEA said the Bangladesh apparel sector has not expanded suddenly or in a way that would indicate structural excess capacity. The industry growth should be viewed over the long term.

Over the past decade, the sector has followed a steady growth path, it said, driven by global demand and shifting sourcing strategies rather than policy-induced expansion.

After more than four decades of development, Bangladesh exported garment products worth $39.3 billion in fiscal year 2024-25, accounting for nearly 7 percent of the global apparel market. It is now the world’s second-largest garment exporter after China.

In 2025, Bangladesh accounted for 10.73 percent of US apparel imports by volume and 10.53 percent by value, according to the American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA).

This week, a separate USTR report said Bangladesh has stayed off the latest US intellectual property rights watch lists. However, Washington urged Dhaka to strengthen enforcement to prevent unfair trade practices.

In its annual Special 301 Report, the USTR identified 26 trading partners with concerns over intellectual property protection and enforcement.

State-owned companies listed on the stock market delivered mixed performances in the January-March quarter of the 2025-26 fiscal year, reflecting uneven sectoral health.

Quarterly public disclosures show energy firms, particularly oil marketing companies, remained profitable, while several entities in financial, gas and industrial sectors continued to incur losses, signalling structural weaknesses.

Oil firms maintain steady profits

The three listed oil marketing companies – Padma Oil Company, Meghna Petroleum and Jamuna Oil – remained profitable in the third quarter of the current fiscal year.

However, their revenues declined compared with the same period last year, reflecting weaker earnings from core operations. Non-operating income, however, played a significant role in sustaining overall profitability.

During the quarter, notable shifts were observed in cash positions and inventory management. Fluctuations in global fuel prices, import costs, stock management and cash flow dynamics were reflected in their financials.

Padma Oil posted a profit of Tk132.37 crore in the January-March quarter FY26, down from Tk145.38 crore in the same period in FY25. Its revenue fell to Tk85.43 crore from Tk92.30 crore.

Meghna Petroleum's profit dropped to Tk83.94 crore from Tk141 crore, while revenue declined to Tk22.95 crore from Tk28.02 crore.

The company said lower collections from customers and reduced payments to suppliers and employees significantly weakened cash flow from operations, leading to a sharp decline in net operating cash flow.

In contrast, Jamuna Oil recorded profit growth, earning Tk139.78 crore compared with Tk110.78 crore. However, its revenue declined to Tk52.12 crore from Tk70.41 crore.

The company in its disclosure said interest income on deposits with Sammilito Islami Bank was not recognised due to uncertainty over recovery. This reduced both total income and net profit, directly affecting earnings per share.

It added that a conservative accounting approach was adopted, excluding uncertain income, which resulted in lower reported EPS. The company also said reduced credit and accruals led to a decline in net operating cash flow per share compared with June 2025.

7 firms remain in red

The Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB) continued to post heavy losses, reporting Tk277 crore in the quarter, up from Tk161 crore a year earlier. Notably, its revenue remained negative at Tk221 crore, compared with negative Tk63 crore in the same period last year.

Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution Company recorded a loss of Tk224 crore, slightly lower than Tk236 crore a year earlier. Its revenue declined to Tk8,613 crore from Tk9,023 crore.

Dhaka Electric Supply Company (Desco) managed to reduce its losses to Tk32 crore from Tk72 crore, while revenue edged up to Tk182.41 crore.

National Tubes Limited slipped into loss, posting Tk1.31 crore in losses against a profit of Tk1.43 crore a year earlier. Its revenue fell to Tk8.12 crore from Tk13.51 crore.

Eastern Cables Limited also remained in the red, reporting a loss of Tk3.45 crore, marginally lower than Tk3.58 crore a year earlier, although revenue rose slightly to Tk8.52 crore.

ICB's losses are seen as reflecting weak investor sentiment in the capital market. Meanwhile, continued losses at gas and power distribution firms also point to structural constraints, pricing issues and operational inefficiencies.

Signs of recovery in select firms

Power Grid Company of Bangladesh staged a strong turnaround, posting a profit of Tk94 crore, compared with a loss of Tk186 crore in the same period last year. Revenue rose to Tk715 crore.

The company said earnings per share increased by Tk6.58 year-on-year in the third quarter. It attributed the improvement to a significant rise in total income and a sharp reduction in overall expenses.

Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company Limited (BSCCL) also recorded robust growth, with profit rising to Tk74.43 crore from Tk47.82 crore a year earlier. Revenue increased to Tk125.31 crore.

The company said higher revenue from regular operations and increased other income drove the rise in earnings per share.

Eastern Lubricants Blenders Limited maintained its growth momentum, posting a profit of Tk4.28 crore, up from Tk1.57 crore a year earlier. Revenue climbed to Tk23.95 crore.

The improvement seen in companies such as Power Grid and BSCCL suggests that effective management, rising demand and supportive policies can enable state-owned enterprises to regain financial stability.

After the onset of the US-Israel war on Iran, some policymakers initially took a firm stance, publicly claiming credit for not adjusting fuel prices to shield consumers from global shocks. They argued that they did not want to pass the burden onto the people.

However, the government could not maintain its stance as it quickly unravelled under fiscal and market realities.

Within weeks, the government reversed course. It raised the price of a 12 kg liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinder by 45 percent after two successive hikes in April.

On April 18, it also pushed fuel prices to record highs: diesel rose by Tk 15 per litre to Tk 115, octane by Tk 20 to Tk 140, petrol by Tk 19 to Tk 135, and kerosene by Tk 18 to Tk 130.

The scale and timing of these adjustments suggest that fiscal constraints, subsidy pressures, and external account vulnerabilities outweighed earlier political commitments.

From a macroeconomic perspective, such hikes drive costs and thus prices of commodities in the supply chain, as higher energy costs spread through transport, production, and supply chains, often creating second-round effects in import-dependent economies like Bangladesh.

A recent report on inflation dynamics of Bangladesh by the central bank showed gas price hikes have pushed up energy inflation to 14.9 percent during the January-March quarter of the current fiscal year 2025-26 from 14.4 percent in the previous quarter.

Economists say the effect of hiking petroleum prices is going to be felt soon, and consumers have already begun to feel the pinch. Transport costs for both passengers and freight have gone up. Farmers complained about the higher cost of harvesting rice and threshing the grains. Consumer goods companies are reducing pack sizes and squeezing margins to cope.

Yet, two ministers -- finance and commerce -- downplayed the inflationary risks.

According to a report published in this newspaper on April 20, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said, “It may increase or it may not. If the supply side remains stable, then prices may not rise.”

In reply to a question in the parliament, Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir said it was unlikely that the recent fuel price hike would exacerbate inflation, terming the adjustment “moderate.”

He said the 15 percent increase in diesel prices may raise commodity prices by around Tk 0.30 per kg. However, he said this would not have any major impact on overall inflation, which has remained around 9 percent for more than three years, deepening consumers’ woes.

The wage rate index for unskilled workers illustrates this trend. Inflation has outpaced wage growth for 50 consecutive months, steadily eroding the purchasing power of consumers, particularly those in middle- and lower-income groups. It means that real wages have been in the negative for more than four years.

Consumers are set to face further pressure as the commerce ministry has allowed refiners to raise soybean oil prices by Tk 4 per litre, or 2 percent.

The situation worsened by earlier supply disruptions triggered by the Iran War, which had already pushed up global energy and transport costs. Diesel-dependent sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and transport are now under additional pressure, raising concerns that the increased costs will eventually be passed on to consumers in an already high-inflation economy.

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said the recent fuel price hike is likely to ripple across the economy through a “multiplier effect.”

He noted that fuel acts as a “barometer of commodity prices,” meaning its increase will inevitably influence a wide range of goods, though not uniformly.

He explained that the current situation reflects “cost-push inflation,” driven by rising input costs rather than demand.

However, he cautioned against overstating the scale of the impact, emphasising that the extent of price increases will depend on how significant fuel costs are within each product’s overall cost structure.

“If fuel accounts for a portion of total costs, a 15 percent increase in fuel prices does not translate into a 15 percent rise in final prices,” he said, illustrating that the actual effect would be proportionally smaller.

Rahman stressed that while some level of price increase is unavoidable, the degree to which it affects consumers will depend heavily on market behaviour and oversight.

“The pass-through to retail prices depends significantly on market management,” he said, warning that unchecked responses, such as transport operators raising fares disproportionately, could worsen inflationary pressures.

He also underscored the growing importance of regulatory monitoring, particularly in sectors with administered pricing, and highlighted the need for stronger safeguards for vulnerable groups.

“For low-income people, even a small increase in prices creates significant hardship,” he said, adding that effective implementation of social safety measures will be critical to easing the burden.

Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development, echoed similar concerns, warning that higher energy prices would inevitably feed into overall price levels.

“If energy and oil prices increase, our price levels will increase. This is almost inevitable,” he said. “There is a ‘one-to-one’ correspondence, as the transmission channel is very deep.”

He explained that a fuel price increase typically triggers broader inflationary pressures across the economy.

“When oil prices increase, we’ve seen a 15-20 percent increase across different varieties. It exerts pressure on other supply chain elements, which overall impacts our prices. They might be saying it for political reasons, but the economic reality is that this will fuel inflationary pressure further,” he added.

Razzaque also noted that the impact is more severe in Bangladesh compared to other countries due to already elevated inflation.

“It’s not just happening in Bangladesh; many countries have already increased their fuel prices. The problem for Bangladesh is that our baseline inflation rate was already high, hovering around 9 to 10 percent. When this impact is added, it creates even more pressure. In countries like Cambodia, where inflation was lower, it was easier to absorb. But for us, it’s almost inevitable that prices will go up,” he said.

He also raised concerns over inflation measurement, especially LPG pricing. He said the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) relies on government-set rates, which may not reflect market reality.

Razzaque added that official figures could be misleading if based on listed prices rather than what consumers actually pay, urging surveys of real market prices for more accurate inflation data.