Bangladesh is scheduled to sign a trade agreement with the United States tomorrow aimed at reducing reciprocal tariffs, with commitments to import more American goods to narrow a trade imbalance heavily favouring Bangladesh.

Under the proposed agreement, the US will not levy tariffs on garment items made from American raw materials such as cotton and exported to American markets, according to Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman.

Besides, the Donald Trump administration will also reduce the reciprocal tariff rate further for Bangladesh as at least two advisers of the interim government said recently along with Secretary Rahman on several occasions. However, they did not say exactly what percentage of the reciprocal tariff may be reduced for Bangladesh.

The arrangement is expected to offer substantial relief for Bangladesh’s garment sector.

For instance, if a T-shirt contains 70 percent American cotton and yarn by value, US customs authorities will exempt that portion from the 20 percent reciprocal tariff imposed on Bangladeshi goods last year.

This matters significantly because garments account for nearly 95 percent of Bangladesh’s exports to the US, and many factories can use roughly 70 percent American materials in their products.

The prospect of preferential access has already shifted sourcing patterns. Imports of cotton and soybeans from America have increased as Bangladeshi millers and traders redirect their purchases from other countries.

The signing ceremony will be held in a hybrid format. Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin and Secretary Rahman will attend virtually, while a handful of senior commerce ministry officials will travel to Washington to attend in person alongside their American counterparts.

“We will send the documents to the US as only a few of our officials will fly there to attend the deal signing ceremony,” Secretary Rahman said.

The commerce adviser cannot attend in person because the government has only one working day before the national elections scheduled for February 12, he added.

The agreement follows intense negotiations to reduce the US tariff burden on Bangladesh. The country exports more than $8 billion worth of goods to the US but imports only $2 billion, creating a substantial trade gap.

In his Liberation Day announcement on April 2 last year, US President Donald Trump imposed a 37 percent additive reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi exports. After negotiations, the Trump administration agreed to lower the rate to 20 percent in exchange for Bangladesh’s commitment to import more US products.

Bangladesh has pledged to buy American aircraft from Boeing, along with greater quantities of cotton, soybeans, liquefied petroleum gas and other goods to reduce the trade gap with the US. An agreement has been signed to import 3.5 million tonnes of wheat from America over five years, with approximately 660,000 tonnes already purchased.

Meanwhile, the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association said in a statement that negotiations with the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) regarding the deal have been ongoing for over six months.

“Although we are informed that a formal trade deal will be signed on February 9, we urge the Ministry of Commerce and all parties negotiating with the USTR to ensure that the signing is completed within this timeframe so that Bangladesh can start preparing itself with the preferential deal of utilising US cotton to attain zero tariff access, which we understand as the centrepiece of the trade deal,” the association added.

Bangladesh’s food grain imports surged 42 percent year-on-year to 42 lakh tonnes in the first half of the current fiscal year (FY) owing to higher imports, particularly by the private sector.

Of the amount, 84 percent or 35 lakh tonnes were wheat, and the rest were rice brought in by the public and private sectors, according to data from the food ministry.

During the period, wheat imports by the private sector surged 31 percent year-on-year to 32.45 lakh tonnes, up from 24.69 lakh tonnes a year earlier.

Meanwhile, imports by the government dropped marginally.

Taslim Shahriar, senior assistant general manager at Meghna Group of Industries (MGI), said a decline in wheat prices in the international market has encouraged imports.

“High prices of rice also buoyed demand for wheat, as it is a substitute. Demand for wheat-based foods is growing, too. This is because people’s consumption behaviour has changed,” he said.

Market price data compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) showed that the national average retail price of wheat flour stayed below the rates of coarse rice between November 2024 and September 2025.

Later, prices of rice declined due to higher supply from increased domestic production and imports. At the same time, retail prices of wheat flour exceeded the prices of coarse rice.

In October 2025, the national average retail price of wheat flour was Tk 54.28 per kilogramme, and the rice price was Tk 52.20 per kilogramme.

Food ministry data showed that rice imports by both the public and private sectors shot up to 6.65 lakh tonnes in the July-December period of FY2025-26 from 1.75 lakh tonnes a year ago.

The food ministry, in its latest Bangladesh Food Situation Report, said the government undertook initiatives to import 15 lakh tonnes of food grains, including 7 lakh tonnes of rice and 8 lakh tonnes of wheat.

This import aimed to strengthen buffer stocks, mitigate market volatility, and safeguard national food security amid global uncertainties.

The government had imported 1 lakh tonnes of rice and 3 lakh tonnes of wheat, while the remaining quantities were in the import pipeline, the report added.

To stabilise domestic supply and prices, rice import duties were reduced, and the private sector was authorised to import 6 lakh tonnes of rice. Under this approval, the private sector imported nearly 4.9 lakh tonnes by November 2025, close to the scheduled target.

Recently, the government granted permission for the private sector to import an additional 2 lakh tonnes of rice.

The food ministry report projected that Bangladesh’s total rice import during FY26 would be more than 14 lakh tonnes, almost equal to the volume of imports in the previous year.

Wheat imports, which meet over 85 percent of the country’s demand, will rise to 71.75 lakh tonnes in the current FY26, registering a 17 percent year-on-year increase.

The MGI official Shahriar said the amount of wheat may be close to the projection of the food ministry.

Readymade garment exports from Bangladesh to the United States grew 12.43 percent to $7.6 billion in the first eleven months of 2025, according to the US Office of Textiles and Apparel (Otexa).

The growth came despite a sharp fall in November, when exports dropped 14.57 percent to $526.51 million compared with the same month a year earlier.

Overall, US apparel imports declined slightly during the January-November period, falling 1.44 percent in value and 3.23 percent in volume. Average prices rose 1.85 percent, Otexa data showed.

Bangladesh was not alone in expanding its US market share last year. Vietnam’s garment exports there grew 11.35 percent, India’s rose 6.04 percent, Pakistan’s by 11.82 percent, Indonesia’s by 9.79 percent, and Cambodia experienced a strong 26.18 percent increase. China’s exports, in contrast, fell sharply by 33.90 percent.

In terms of volume, Bangladesh recorded a strong growth of 13.30 percent, Vietnam 11.99 percent, India 4.73 percent, Pakistan 18.28 percent, Indonesia 13.39 percent, and Cambodia surged 35.40 percent. China saw a sharp decline of 25.86 percent, Otexa said.

Unit prices per garment piece from January to November 2025 varied across countries. Bangladesh experienced a slight drop of 0.77 percent, Vietnam 0.57 percent, China 10.84 percent, Cambodia 6.81 percent, Pakistan 5.46 percent, and Indonesia 3.18 percent. India was the only country to see a price increase, rising 1.25 percent, Otexa added.

RAK Ceramics (Bangladesh) Limited has reported a loss of Tk39.59 crore for 2025, even as its revenue grew by 10.56%, mainly due to higher manufacturing costs, prolonged disruption in gas supply until June, and rising finance expenses.

According to its price-sensitive information (PSI) filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the multinational ceramic manufacturer's sales rose to Tk737.33 crore in 2025 from the previous year, driven largely by increased production following uninterrupted LNG supply from July onward, which helped boost market sales.

Despite the revenue growth, the company's gross profit margin declined sharply to 13.19% from 17.19% a year earlier.

RAK Ceramics attributed the margin erosion to increased throughput costs, unabsorbed fixed costs incurred during the gas supply disruption up to June 2025, higher finance expenses arising from additional working capital borrowings, and increased provisions and write-offs of aged inventory.

With the latest loss, the company has posted back-to-back losses for the second consecutive year. In 2024, RAK Ceramics incurred a loss of Tk2.73 crore, although it also paid a 10% cash dividend that year.

Despite the widening losses, the board of directors has unanimously recommended a 10% cash dividend for general shareholders for 2025, amounting to Tk11.95 crore.

According to DSE data, sponsor-directors hold a majority 72.08% stake in the company and will not be entitled to the recommended dividend. The remaining 27.92% shares held by institutional investors, foreign investors, and general shareholders will receive the dividend payout.

The company also reported improvements in its operating performance, citing better trade receivable collections supported by a strengthened credit control framework, as well as successful renegotiation and extension of payment terms with vendors.

As a result, net operating cash flow per share rose significantly to Tk1 at the end of 2025, from Tk0.49 a year earlier.

RAK Ceramics has scheduled its annual general meeting (AGM) for 31 March through a digital platform. The record date for determining dividend entitlement has been set for 25 February.

Major business associations have appealed to Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus for urgent personal intervention to defuse the escalating crisis at Chattogram Port, warning that an indefinite strike planned from tomorrow could trigger severe economic fallout just four days before the national election.

In an open letter dated today (7 February), the leaders of the Bangladesh Employers' Federation (BEF), Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) and Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) said continued disruption at the country's main seaport would pose a serious threat to exports, essential commodity supplies and overall economic stability.

The letter was signed by BEF President Fazle Karim Ehsan, BGMEA Acting President Selim Rahman, BKMEA President Mohammad Hatem and BTMA President Showkat Aziz Russell.

Describing Chattogram Port as the "lifeline of the national economy," the business leaders noted that it handles around 99% of the country's container traffic and 78% of seaborne trade. Any prolonged shutdown, they warned, could cause irreparable damage to key export sectors, particularly ready-made garments, while creating artificial shortages of essential goods ahead of Ramadan.

They also cautioned that vessel congestion and cargo delays would result in massive demurrage payments, putting additional pressure on the country's foreign exchange reserves.

While commending the interim government's reform initiatives and preparations for what they described as a free, fair and neutral election under Yunus's leadership, the signatories said they were deeply concerned by the "deep impasse" at the port.

The situation, they said, has been aggravated by the announcement of continuous strikes and shutdowns at the port terminals and outer anchorage from 8 February by the Chattogram Bandar Rokkha Sangram Parishad, a platform of port workers and employees opposing the proposed lease of the New Mooring Container Terminal (NCT) to UAE-based DP World.

According to the letter, seven consecutive days of dialogue and coordination meetings involving various stakeholders have failed to produce a breakthrough. The business leaders pointed to the controversial NCT lease plan as the core trigger of the unrest, saying the situation has become more volatile due to legal actions and investigations initiated against protesting workers.

"At this critical juncture, four days before the national election, any disruption to the country's supply system and economic activities is undesirable for all of us," the letter said, urging the chief adviser to take immediate steps to promote mutual understanding among workers, port authorities and other stakeholders.

The appeal comes as port workers prepare to resume an indefinite strike after a brief 48-hour suspension following talks with Shipping Adviser Brigadier General (retd) M Sakhawat Hossain.

The protest movement began in late January over the government's plan to hand over the NCT to DP World. A six-day work abstention earlier last week brought port operations to a standstill, leaving thousands of containers stuck at yards and dozens of vessels waiting at outer anchorage, with losses running into billions of taka.

Although the strike was temporarily paused after negotiations with the shipping adviser, labour leaders warned that the suspension was conditional. They accuse the port authority of acting in bad faith by transferring protesting employees and seeking anti-corruption probes and travel bans against labour leaders.

Protesters are demanding the cancellation of the NCT lease deal, removal of the port chairman over alleged corruption, withdrawal of cases filed against workers and assurances that no further punitive measures will be taken.

Trade bodies, particularly in the export sector, have repeatedly warned that renewed disruptions could lead to order cancellations, shipment delays, price hikes and potential job losses. With Ramadan approaching, business leaders fear supply chain instability could also push up prices of essential commodities.

Port authorities, on the other hand, have accused the strikers of disrupting national trade and have taken a series of administrative and legal steps, further hardening positions on both sides. Operations at the port remain fragile during the current pause, with stakeholders bracing for fresh disruptions if the strike resumes as announced.

With the election scheduled for 12 February and economic sensitivities running high, the business community's appeal underscores growing concern that failure to resolve the standoff quickly could amplify economic pressures and spill over into the broader political and social landscape.

The benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange continued its upward trend last week, supported by broad investor participation and sustained buying in undervalued blue-chip stocks. Improving sentiment around the upcoming national election encouraged selective buying across key sectors.

The market opened the week strongly, maintaining positive momentum for three consecutive sessions. Although some profit-taking appeared in the final session, buyers largely dominated, pushing the market higher by week's end. The DSEX rose 80.4 points, or 1.6%, to close at 5,234 points. Average daily turnover increased 11.2% to Tk644 crore, reflecting heightened investor activity.

Banking stocks led trading, accounting for 18.6% of total turnover, followed by pharmaceuticals at 14.8% and textiles at 9.7%. Engineering shares posted the highest weekly gains, climbing 5.7% as investors picked up stocks that were previously oversold. The banking sector added 3.8%, while mutual funds rose 3.4% on renewed buying interest.

Not all sectors fared well. General insurance fell 3.9%, life insurance dropped 2%, and telecom slid 1.5% amid profit-taking. Non-bank financial institutions saw sharp price swings, with International Leasing, Premier Leasing, FAS Finance, Peoples Leasing, and GSP Finance among the top gainers. On the downside, DBH First Mutual Fund led losses, along with Asia Pacific Insurance, Sonar Bangla Insurance, Rupali Life Insurance, and Rahim Textile.

BRAC Bank, Islami Bank, Asiatic Laboratories, Dominage Steel, and Simtex Industries were the most actively traded stocks, showing sustained interest in large-cap, fundamentally strong companies. Key contributors to the index's rise included Islami Bank, Walton, Al-Arafah Islami Bank, BRAC Bank, and Renata.

Analysts said that improving political clarity, steady participation from both institutional and retail investors, and selective accumulation in blue-chip stocks supported the market's gains. While short-term volatility from profit-taking may continue, the overall trend appears constructive as long as macroeconomic and political conditions remain stable.

Once thriving amid growing demand, Bangladesh's paper industry is now grappling with rising costs, shrinking sales, and gas shortages, raising fears of a sector-wide collapse. Most listed firms three out of five reported a decline in profit for the second quarter (October–December) of the current fiscal year, while market leader Bashundhara Paper Mills incurred a heavy loss.

Of the six paper firms listed on the bourses, five have published financial statements for the first six months through December 2025. Khulna Printing and Packaging, however, has remained non-functional and has not released its financials for a long time.

Industry insiders said high inflation, gas shortages, and banking constraints for importing raw materials have severely hurt the sector.

Sector under pressure

Mustafa Kamal Mohiuddin, secretary general of the Bangladesh Paper Mills Association (BPMA) and chairman of Magura Multiplex, told The Business Standard, "The country's paper industry is almost on the verge of collapse due to three main reasons: the dollar crisis for importing raw materials, the gas shortage, and banking constraints. Most mills are closed, and only 10–15 are operating at lower capacity. Entrepreneurs are struggling to stay afloat."

He added that insufficient gas supply has forced mills to seek alternatives like LNG and coal imports, but banking restrictions have hindered these efforts. Mohiuddin also noted that digitalization has reduced overall paper demand, though specialized papers such as colour, art paper, hardboard, and tissue continue to see steady demand.

Performance of listed firms

In Q2 (October–December), Sonali Paper & Board Mills reported a 20% decline in revenue to Tk77.22 crore and a 17% drop in net profit to Tk10.15 crore compared to the same period last fiscal year. In H1 (July–December), however, the company recorded modest growth, with revenue up 4% to Tk159.60 crore and profit rising 7.64% to Tk19.44 crore, driven largely by first-quarter performance.

Md. Rashedul Hossain, company secretary, attributed the Q2 decline to seasonal factors, including school closures.

Hakkani Pulp & Paper Mills saw an 18% fall in Q2 revenue to Tk26.75 crore and a 9% drop in profit to Tk32 lakh. H1 revenue declined 6.58% to Tk58.05 crore and profit fell 7% to Tk52 lakh. The company attributed the decline to higher costs of sales, despite an increase in tissue segment sales, while revenue from newsprint dropped.

Mixed results for Magura Group firms

Two Magura Group concerns posted mixed results. Magura Multiplex reported a 7.4% rise in profit in H1, while Monospool Bangladesh saw a 3.56% drop to Tk4.71 crore and Tk7.55 crore, respectively.

Both firms recorded growth in Q2, with chairman Mustafa Kamal Mohiuddin attributing H1 performance to effective cost control.

Bashundhara faces big los

Bashundhara Paper Mills suffered a massive Tk249 crore loss in H1 FY26, citing raw material shortages, rising utility and borrowing costs, and price hikes.

The company had also recorded a Tk330 crore loss in the previous fiscal year. Its loss per share in Q2 reached Tk14.34, up from Tk5.84 in the same period last year. H1 revenue plunged 72% to Tk113 crore, down from Tk410.47 crore in FY25, while finance costs soared 31% to Tk204 crore.

An official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, "Operating profitability declined sharply due to raw material scarcity, higher utility costs, rising input prices, and increased borrowing costs. As a consequence, EPS has decreased significantly."

As of December, Bashundhara Paper Mills' long-term loans stood at Tk2,118 crore, with short-term borrowings of Tk581.85 crore.

Booming exports are pushing up China's currency and while analysts think authorities will resist further gains, risks are to the upside and could test the country's fragile economy.

As the yuan exchange rate tiptoed toward and then passed the strong side of 7-per-dollar last year, foreign currency flows into Chinese banks hit a record $452 billion in December.

The amount converted to yuan also hit a record of $311 billion, figures from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed, with the flow sending the exchange rate to its strongest point since 2023 at 6.9378 per dollar yesterday (3 February).

Bank analysts think that is more or less enough and say a toolkit of semi-official yuan selling, restraining the trading band, persuasive arguments from authorities and tweaks to reserve ratios for the banking system can be rolled out to keep it from gaining further.

An average of 13 forecasts from global investment banks has the currency at 6.92 to the dollar by year's end, while market pricing points to around 6.8 in the derivatives market.

That sort of level is likely to frustrate the country's trading partners, where manufacturers are under pressure from Chinese rivals, and add more fuel to a boom in offshore yuan borrowing.

But out-of-consensus calls point to it rising further if exporters ramp up their yuan conversions, with Goldman Sachs this week raising its 12-month yuan forecast to 6.7 per dollar, about 3.5% firmer than Tuesday's trading level.

"The pace of appreciation has exceeded our expectations and that is even before the sharp move lower in the broad dollar," said Goldman analysts, who based their outlook on record flows and what they viewed as a shift in tone from the central bank.

The People's Bank of China manages the yuan by keeping it inside a band that is 2% on either side of a midpoint that it announces each trading day. It declined to comment on its stance on the currency or on analyst forecasts when contacted by Reuters.

Last month, central bank Deputy Governor Zou Lan said the yuan is expected to experience two-way fluctuations while maintaining flexibility.

Base Case

A stronger yuan erodes a competitive advantage for exporters, so analysts believe a runaway rally is unlikely. They point to state bank selling and signals from the PBOC's midpoint settings as evidence authorities will weigh in against gains.

"Given that China's economic growth is still highly dependent on exports, the People's Bank of China may not yet be willing to risk a more significant appreciation of the currency," said Wei He, an economist at Gavekal Dragonomics.

The PBOC midpoint has been weaker than market estimates since November and – traders say – state banks have been dollar buyers whenever the yuan has started to rise too sharply.

Analysts also expect authorities to adjust foreign exchange reserve requirements, since they could force banks to buy and hold more dollars and offset yuan buying.

"We see a high chance for the 20% risk reserve on banks' forward FX sale to be removed and expect FX reserve requirement ratio to be raised," said Janice Xue, a strategist at Bank of America Global Research.

China's 5% gross domestic product growth last year rested upon an export surge that delivered a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion, up around 20% from a year earlier.

"Our base scenario remains a strong export performance, which could support the yuan," said Chaoping Zhu, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "However, as foreign governments become more cautious (about) the impacts on their economies, uncertainties are rising for Chinese export growth."

"This might suggest a higher two-way volatility in the exchange rate," he said, which he thinks is likely to fluctuate in a range around 7-per-dollar. On a trade-weighted basis, the yuan is at the lower end of a range that it has kept since the pandemic, which provides support for exporters.

Upside Risks

Stability has also been the defining feature of the nine-month rally that has lifted the yuan nearly 6% against the dollar, which traders say is aimed at boosting the currency's appeal for investment, lending and reliability for settling trade.

That also holds momentum in check against the risk that a rising currency drives a positive feedback loop where buying from exporters sends it higher, encouraging more buying.

Ding, a Shanghai-based electrical industry exporter who only provided his surname, said his firm was already converting more dollars to yuan more quickly because of recent exchange rate moves.

To be sure, at 68.8%, the proportion of export receipts converted to yuan in December was on the rise, but it was not a record, and analysts believe authorities can manage even bigger flows.

"We expect the level of surplus to go beyond $1 trillion again in 2026," said Kelvin Lam, senior China+ economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, who expects the exchange rate to be at 6.85 at the end of the year.

"Repatriation of the USD piled outside of China because of trading activity will continue to be a driving force to push (the yuan) to the stronger end, but the PBOC will make sure the appreciation (is) on a gradual, measured pace."

At the Singapore Airshow, exhibition halls are filled with aircraft models, simulated cockpits and interactive displays showcasing the latest advances in commercial aviation. Among them, one stand has drawn particular interest: Comac, China's state-owned aircraft manufacturer.

Comac has made notable progress since its C919 passenger jet flew to Singapore two years ago, marking its first journey outside China. Designed to rival Airbus's A320neo and Boeing's 737 MAX, the aircraft is increasingly being promoted to markets beyond China, reports the BBC.

For Comac, the Singapore Airshow offers an opportunity to present itself as a future challenger to the long-dominant Airbus-Boeing duopoly in the Asia-Pacific region - the world's fastest-growing aviation market - at a time when airlines are struggling with aircraft shortages, delivery delays and supply chain disruptions.

"I think over time Comac will become a global competitor, but it will take years," Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), told the BBC.

"In 10 or 15 years, we'll likely be talking about Boeing, Airbus and Comac together."

Industry analysts say the region urgently needs another aircraft manufacturer. Airlines across Asia-Pacific have been affected by delays at both Boeing and Airbus, compounded by engine shortages and broader supply chain constraints. Trade tensions and tariff uncertainties have added further pressure to manufacturers and airlines alike.

According to IATA data, airlines worldwide are waiting longer than ever for new aircraft, pushing up the average age of fleets and increasing costs, as older planes burn more fuel. Walsh said Asia-Pacific airlines could achieve double-digit growth in 2026 if enough aircraft were available. "The waiting time between ordering a plane and receiving it is now around seven years, which is incredibly frustrating," he said.

This situation has helped position Comac as an alternative option. More than 150 Comac aircraft are currently in service within China, while its planes are also flying in Laos, Indonesia and Vietnam. Brunei's GallopAir has placed a significant order, and Cambodia has indicated plans to acquire around 20 aircraft.

"We need more suppliers," said Subhas Menon, director general of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA). "This industry operates as an oligopoly, and at times almost a duopoly. Comac's entry is long overdue and very welcome."

Strong backing from the Chinese government and comparatively lower prices could make Comac aircraft attractive, particularly to low-cost carriers in developing markets.

Mike Szucs, chief executive of Philippines-based budget airline Cebu Pacific, told the BBC that while Comac is not yet an immediate option, it could become one in the next decade. "Once certification hurdles are cleared in the 2030s, it could be a compelling choice for us and other airlines," he said.

Beyond Asia-Pacific, Comac is also pursuing European certification, with regulators already conducting test flights of the C919. Approval would allow the company to sell aircraft to European airlines, though officials say certification could take until 2028 or even the early 2030s.

Significant challenges remain, including integrating Chinese and Western components, developing global maintenance and repair networks, and establishing pilot training systems—areas where Airbus and Boeing benefit from decades of experience.

Comac also faces competition in the region from Brazil's Embraer, which has secured orders from carriers such as Scoot, Virgin Australia and Japan's ANA.

Meanwhile, Airbus and Boeing continue to dominate the region and maintain a strong presence at the Singapore Airshow. Both manufacturers have signalled that delivery delays, which have plagued airlines in recent years, may soon begin to ease.

Despite Comac's claim of more than 1,000 orders for the C919 from Chinese airlines, only around a dozen aircraft have been delivered so far. Verifying these figures is difficult, as Comac is state-owned and not publicly listed.

Unless Comac can overcome certification, infrastructure and delivery challenges, analysts say Airbus and Boeing are likely to retain control of Asia-Pacific skies for the foreseeable future, the BBC reports.

The United States will host more than 50 countries on Wednesday (4 February) for talks aimed at boosting their access to critical minerals, in a bid to loosen China's grip over vital industrial inputs that has allowed it to control global supply chains.

The gathering comes after President Donald Trump on Monday launched a strategic stockpile of critical minerals, called Project Vault, backed by $10 billion in seed funding from the US Export-Import Bank and $2 billion in private funding.

China has wielded its chokehold on the processing of many minerals as geo-economic leverage, at times curbing exports and suppressing prices and undercutting other countries' ability to diversify sources of the materials used to make semiconductors, electric vehicles and advanced weapons.

South Korea, India, Thailand, Japan, Germany, Australia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are among countries attending the Washington meeting, though the US has not released a full list.

Beijing's expanded export controls on rare earths last year caused production delays and shutdowns for auto manufacturers in Europe and the US, and a China-generated glut of lithium has stalled plans to expand production in the US.

Such dependencies have unnerved Washington and its partners, which nonetheless have struggled for years to implement policies to stand up durable domestic mining and processing alternatives for lithium, nickel, rare earths and other critical minerals.

China's leverage was on full display in October when Trump agreed to trim tariffs on the country in exchange for Beijing's pledge to hold off on stricter restrictions on rare earths exports.

The talks underscore a broader US push to work with partners to counter China's dominance over critical minerals by coordinating policy tools at a time when Trump has angered allies with his sweeping "America First" tariff policies.

Washington and its partners are weighing measures that include aligning trade and investment incentives, encouraging new mining and processing capacity outside China, and exploring market interventions such as price floors, strategic stockpiles and export restrictions to reduce Beijing's leverage over supply chains vital to advanced manufacturing and national security.

"I think this is a recognition by the United States that it must act in concert with others to reduce its vulnerability in areas where China has supply dominance," said Scott Kennedy, who leads the Chinese business and economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Incentives

US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said on Tuesday that 11 more countries would be named to a critical minerals trade club this week, joining the US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Thailand. He said 20 more countries showed "strong interest" in joining the coalition.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance will deliver remarks at the meeting of ministers from across Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America, which according to the State Department, aims to "advance collective efforts to strengthen and diversify critical minerals supply chains."

"China has long played an important and constructive role in keeping the global industrial and supply chains of critical minerals safe and stable and is willing to continue to make active efforts in this regard," China's embassy in Washington told Reuters when asked about the meeting.

Industry experts say countries must find the right balance of incentives to boost investment in critical minerals production.

Those could include deploying newly created Section 232 tariffs in coordination with allies to establish industry-wide price floors for specific materials.

The Trump administration last year struck a price-floor agreement with rare earths producer MP Materials, but Reuters has reported the administration may now be moving away from company-specific deals in favour of a broader, international approach.

Washington's Group of Seven partners and the European Union have considered price floors to promote rare earth production, as well as taxes on some Chinese exports to incentivize investment.

Australia, which has been positioning itself as a critical minerals alternative to China, has also said it would establish a strategic reserve of minerals, expected to be ready by the second half of 2026.

Canberra is also considering setting a price floor to support local critical minerals projects.

"The reality is that none of us have tested these tools in this context. So, we're looking to see which will be most effective. Most likely it will be a bit of a menu of tools ... I don't think there's going to be a one silver bullet," one meeting participant told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

The interim government’s net borrowing from the banking system rose almost fivefold in the first seven months of the current fiscal year 2025-26, as spending raced ahead of sluggish revenue collection.

The government borrowed Tk 48,819 crore from banks as of January 25, compared with Tk 10,558 crore by January 23 last year, according to Bangladesh Bank (BB) provisional data.

The amount already accounts for nearly half of the full year’s borrowing target of Tk 104,000 crore.

The sharp rise reflects a widening gap between expenditure and income. Government spending has climbed steadily, while revenue collection has failed to keep pace.

The National Board of Revenue posted a 14 percent year-on-year growth in collection in the first six months of FY26, mobilising Tk 185,229 crore. Even so, receipts fell short of the target by about Tk 46,000 crore.

In the same period last year, revenue slipped by 1 percent amid unrest following the political changeover in August 2024.

“This is not a sustainable situation,” said Fahmida Khatun, executive director of private think-tank the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

She said weak domestic resource mobilisation pushes debt levels higher and leaves little room to manage day-to-day spending. “The revenue collection remains so low that it is difficult to manage regular expenditure.”

According to the economist, the country’s persistently low tax-to-GDP ratio has made the government increasingly reliant on bank borrowing, driving up debt and interest payments.

In FY25, interest payments reached a record Tk 132,460 crore, almost one-fifth of total budget spending, according to the finance ministry’s debt bulletin.

For the current year, interest costs stand at Tk 122,000 crore, accounting for 13 percent of the budget.

As debt servicing takes up a larger share of public funds, allocations for education, health and infrastructure are squeezed, undermining long-term growth prospects.

Fahmida said that unless tax collection grows fast, heavier government borrowing from banks will also tighten credit for the private sector.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute (PRI), warned that a risky cycle is beginning to take hold.

Higher borrowing, he said, feeds directly into a growing interest burden within the fiscal framework.

“As debt servicing absorbs a larger share of public expenditure, fiscal space for productivity-enhancing investments, particularly in human capital, health, education, and critical infrastructure, shrinks,” he explained.

Over time, this trade-off weakens the state’s ability to address structural development constraints and undermines the quality of growth itself, said Rahman.

Rising government demand for credit also crowds out private firms, pushing up borrowing costs and discouraging investment.

“This is particularly concerning at a time when economic recovery and employment generation depend critically on a revival of private sector confidence and investment momentum,” he added.

The persistence of high borrowing also points to deeper weaknesses on the revenue side. Despite some gains, collections remain far below what is needed to finance public spending in a sustainable way.

“This points to longstanding deficiencies in tax policy design, tax administration, and compliance. Without a durable improvement in domestic resource mobilisation, borrowing risks becoming a default adjustment mechanism rather than a temporary counter-cyclical tool,” he said.

Breaking the cycle, Rahman said, will require prudent debt management alongside credible revenue reforms and a clear medium-term fiscal strategy that shifts spending towards growth-enhancing priorities rather than debt servicing.

More pressure is expected in the months ahead. The rollout of a new pay scale for government employees will require an additional Tk 106,000 crore, around one-fifth of total operating expenditure for the year.

CPD’s Fahmida suggested the increases should be phased in.

Otherwise, she said, maintaining fiscal balance will become one of the toughest challenges for the next government.

Bangladesh is stepping into a new phase of trade diplomacy as it signs its first Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan tomorrow, a deal meant to preserve duty-free market access after the country’s graduation from the least developed country club later this year.

A Bangladesh delegation led by Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin will leave Dhaka for Tokyo today to sign the agreement, Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman told The Daily Star yesterday.

The EPA, approved by the Advisory Council on January 22, will give Bangladeshi exporters immediate duty-free access to 97 percent of their export basket, including ready-made garments (RMG) and nearly 7,379 other products.

In return, Japan will receive duty-free access to 1,039 products in the Bangladeshi market.

Automobiles from Japan, home to global brands such as Toyota, Honda and Subaru, will not enjoy duty-free entry under the deal, according to the commerce secretary.

Rahman said the move is deliberate to encourage Japanese entrepreneurs to invest directly in Bangladesh’s vehicle segment.

Officials believe this could prompt “handsome” investment in local vehicle manufacturing, possibly reshaping the country’s automotive industry.

Japan is already Bangladesh’s largest export destination in Asia, with annual shipments hovering around $2 billion, mostly garments.

Imports from Japan, however, have remained relatively steady at around $1.8 billion to $2.7 billion in recent years, according to data from the Bangladesh Bank and the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB).

Officials say the EPA could help narrow this trade deficit by boosting exports while drawing Japanese capital into industrial zones across the country.

Apart from tariffs, the agreement covers trade in services, investment, customs procedures and intellectual property rights, according to the commerce ministry.

“We are expecting a major shift of Japanese investment in Bangladesh under this EPA, as Japan is looking for a favourable investment destination and is choosing Bangladesh,” Commerce Secretary Rahman said.

At present, Japanese investment in Bangladesh stands at about $500 million, a small slice of Japan’s global investment. Still, several Japanese firms have already set up operations at the dedicated Japanese economic zone at Araihazar in Narayanganj district.

Under the deal, Bangladesh will open 97 service sub-sectors to Japan, while Japan will open 120 to Bangladesh. Officials expect this to speed up technology transfer and encourage long-term investment.

According to commerce ministry documents, garments will receive immediate duty-free access under Single Stage Transformation rules, a major win for the local RMG sector as the country prepares for the post-LDC competition.

For years, Bangladesh has been looking for trade agreements with major partners and blocs, including India, Turkey, Malaysia, China, the UAE, Indonesia, Nepal, Asean and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), to widen its footprint in Asian, African and Latin American markets.

Until now, the country has only signed a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) with Bhutan in 2020. This EPA with Japan marks its first full-fledged trade deal.

Dhaka and Tokyo had been progressing towards this deal since 2022, when then prime minister Sheikh Hasina said Bangladesh was open to negotiating free trade agreements, including with Japan.

Subsequently, a joint study group was formed. Talks gathered pace in July 2023, with both sides signalling their intention to sign the EPA by late 2025 or early 2026, ahead of Bangladesh’s LDC graduation.

Momentum picked up after the Advisory Council gave its nod on January 22 this year, following Japan’s approval of the draft in December.

Last month, Japan also reaffirmed at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) that it would continue duty-free market access for Bangladesh for three more years, up to 2029.

Regarding the EPA with Japan, analysts say this sends a message about the country’s readiness to engage with major economies and trading blocs.

Abdur Razzaque, chairman of local think tank Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), called the deal a positive signal but stressed that its success would depend on execution.

“It is a positive signal for Bangladesh to the foreign investors as it is a testimony that Bangladesh is capable of signing the deal even with Japan,” he said, adding that the country should actively attract Japanese investment, especially in export-oriented sectors such as man-made fibre industries.

Similarly, M Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, called the agreement an excellent development.

“This EPA will enable Bangladesh to be a partner of a country which is a member of the G-7. It will brighten our image,” he said.

If used well, the deal could also open new doors for foreign direct investment, Reaz added.

Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday after the US shot down an Iranian drone and armed Iranian boats approached a US-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, rekindling fears of an escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Brent crude futures were up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $67.48 per barrel at 0730 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $63.49 per barrel.

Both benchmarks rose nearly 2 percent on Tuesday as the military incidents increased fears that a conflict could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz or output from Iran.

“Uncertainty about how these talks will play out means the market will likely continue to price in some risk premium,” said ING commodity strategists on Wednesday.

The US military on Tuesday shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively” approached the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, the US military said, in an incident first reported by Reuters.

Separately, in the Strait of Hormuz between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, a group of Iranian gunboats approached a US-flagged tanker north of Oman, maritime sources and a security consultancy said on Tuesday.

OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the Strait of Hormuz, mainly to Asia. Iran was the third-biggest OPEC crude producer in 2025, according to US Energy Information Administration data.

Meanwhile, Tehran is demanding that talks with the US this week be held in Oman not Turkey, and that the scope be narrowed to two-way negotiations on nuclear issues only, casting doubt on whether the meeting will proceed as planned.

“Heightened tensions in the Middle East provided support to the oil market,” said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities.

Oil prices also found support from industry data showing a sharp drop in US crude stockpiles. Inventories in the top producing and consuming nation fell over 11 million barrels last week, sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.

Official data from the US Energy Information Administration is due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT). Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a rise in crude inventories.

On Tuesday, oil prices were also buoyed by a trade agreement between the US and India that raised hopes of stronger global energy demand, while continued Russian attacks on Ukraine added to concerns that Moscow’s oil would remain sanctioned for longer.

“India’s trade agreement with the US to halt purchases of Russian crude, along with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, is also providing support,” Yoshida said, projecting that WTI would likely continue to trade around $65 a barrel for now.

Stock markets mostly struggled on Tuesday while gold and silver prices rebounded in fresh volatile trading.

Oil prices rose while Wall Street indices retreated, shrugging off passage of legislation to end a four-day partial US government shutdown.

The price of gold climbed more than seven percent but later traded near $4,950 per ounce. Last week it reached a record-high close to $5,600 before tumbling.

Gold is "heading for its biggest daily gain since 2008, as prices rebounded sharply following the steepest two-day decline in decades," said analyst Axel Rudolph at trading platform IG.

Silver surged more than 15 percent to $86 on Tuesday, still well short of the record near $120 it hit last week.

"A sense of calm descended after the precious metal auctions, opening the door for investors to buy on the dip," noted Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor.

Gold and silver prices have been on a tear in recent months, benefitting from being seen as a safe haven investments during times of geopolitical tensions.

Wall Street's main equity markets wobbled, with the Dow striking a fresh all-time high before turning lower.

The Nasdaq Composite finished down 1.4 percent after spending almost the entire session in negative territory.

"The rotation away from tech began at the beginning of the year and it's kind of building on itself here," said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O'Hare.

"The tech sector had such strong outperformance last year and for several years. There are so much good news that has been priced into the stocks that there's really like zero room for error."

US President Donald Trump signed into law a congressional spending bill to fund government agencies while buying more time for lawmakers to negotiate over spending for the administration's controversial immigration crackdown.

Negotiations had broken down following the killing of two US citizens by federal agents in Minneapolis, the Minnesota city which has become the flashpoint for the Republican president's policies.

In Europe, early gains failed to hold. Frankfurt and London ended the day lower while Paris finished flat.

The euro and the pound rose against the dollar ahead of interest-rate decisions due Thursday from the European Central Bank and Bank of England.

Investors were also keeping an eye on earnings from major companies this week, with particular attention on the tech sector and planned investment in artificial intelligence.

Shares in Palantir, a data and analytics firm that has extensive ties with the US government, jumped 6.8 percent, while robotics firm Teradyne surged 13.4 percent.

Shares in Disney dipped 0.2 percent after it named Josh D'Amaro, head of its theme parks division, to replace Bob Iger as chief executive when he steps down next month.

Asian equities trading was more positive, with sentiment boosted by a rally on Wall Street on Monday following forecast-beating manufacturing data.

That fed through to Asia, where Tokyo closed with a gain of 3.9 percent on Tuesday.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) purchased an additional US $171 million from 16 commercial banks on Wednesday as part of ongoing efforts to stabilise the country’s foreign exchange market.

The dollars were bought at a cut-off rate of Tk 122.30 per US dollar, a central bank official said.

This intervention follows a major purchase on Monday when the central bank acquired $218.5 million from 16 banks at the same rate. With these recent transactions, BB’s total dollar purchases in February have reached $389.5 million in just four days, reports UNB.

Aggressive Accumulation in FY2025-26

Throughout the current fiscal year, Bangladesh Bank has been actively buying dollars to curb rapid Taka appreciation and strengthen foreign exchange reserves.

The total purchases for FY2025-26 have reached $4.32 billion.

Recent Major Interventions:

Feb 4: $171 million from 16 banks

Feb 2: $218.5 million from 16 banks

Jan 29: $55 million from 5 banks

Jan 20: $45 million from 2 banks

Jan 12: $81 million from 10 banks

Jan 6: $223.5 million from 14 banks

All transactions were executed at a uniform cut-off rate of Tk 122.30.

Rationale Behind Market Intervention

Arif Hosain Khan, Executive Director and Spokesperson of Bangladesh Bank, confirmed the latest purchase, noting that the central bank employs an auction-based system to manage liquidity.

Key drivers include:

Remittance Surge: Inward remittances through formal banking channels have reached record levels, with January 2026 alone seeing $3.17 billion, leaving banks with surplus dollar holdings.

Exchange Rate Management: By setting a cut-off rate, the central bank aims to establish a floor for the Taka, supporting exporters and remitters.

Reserve Strengthening: Dollar purchases are helping rebuild the country’s foreign exchange reserves, which stood at $28.51 billion (net) as of December 2025.

Banking insiders say that while the dollar crisis of previous years has eased, active participation by the central bank remains critical to prevent market volatility and ensure a predictable exchange rate for trade planning.

RAK Ceramics (Bangladesh) Limited has reported a loss of Tk39.59 crore for 2025, even as its revenue grew by 10.56%, mainly due to higher manufacturing costs, prolonged disruption in gas supply until June, and rising finance expenses.

According to its price-sensitive information (PSI) filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the multinational ceramic manufacturer's sales rose to Tk737.33 crore in 2025 from the previous year, driven largely by increased production following uninterrupted LNG supply from July onward, which helped boost market sales.

Despite the revenue growth, the company's gross profit margin declined sharply to 13.19% from 17.19% a year earlier.

RAK Ceramics attributed the margin erosion to increased throughput costs, unabsorbed fixed costs incurred during the gas supply disruption up to June 2025, higher finance expenses arising from additional working capital borrowings, and increased provisions and write-offs of aged inventory.

With the latest loss, the company has posted back-to-back losses for the second consecutive year. In 2024, RAK Ceramics incurred a loss of Tk2.73 crore, although it also paid a 10% cash dividend that year.

Despite the widening losses, the board of directors has unanimously recommended a 10% cash dividend for general shareholders for 2025, amounting to Tk11.95 crore.

According to DSE data, sponsor-directors hold a majority 72.08% stake in the company and will not be entitled to the recommended dividend. The remaining 27.92% shares held by institutional investors, foreign investors, and general shareholders will receive the dividend payout.

The company also reported improvements in its operating performance, citing better trade receivable collections supported by a strengthened credit control framework, as well as successful renegotiation and extension of payment terms with vendors.

As a result, net operating cash flow per share rose significantly to Tk1 at the end of 2025, from Tk0.49 a year earlier.

RAK Ceramics has scheduled its annual general meeting (AGM) for 31 March through a digital platform. The record date for determining dividend entitlement has been set for 25 February.

Bangladesh’s external debt has nearly doubled in just over three years, driven by a surge in emergency budget financing in the post-Covid period and a sharp devaluation of the local currency that inflated the value of dollar-denominated obligations.

The country’s total external debt jumped 92 percent to Tk 9.51 lakh crore by the end of September 2025, compared with June 2022 levels, according to a debt bulletin published Tuesday by the Ministry of Finance.

The sharp increase reflects Bangladesh’s growing reliance on quick-disbursing budget support loans rather than traditional project financing, amid weak revenue collection and widening fiscal deficits.

Between fiscal years 2021-2022 (FY22) and 2024-2025 (FY25), Bangladesh received $9.82 billion in budget support, with $3.44 billion coming last fiscal year alone.

Budget support loans, which are disbursed immediately upon approval and come with policy conditions, rose 69 percent year-on-year in FY25, even as project loans fell more than 29 percent.

The shift reflects the government’s need for funds that can be deployed immediately to cover budget operations amid weak revenue collection. Unlike project loans, which are disbursed gradually and tied to specific infrastructure works, budget support can be used directly for deficit financing.

The interim government has continued prioritising budget support over project loans, maintaining the pattern established by the previous administration.

Currency devaluation has compounded the debt burden. The local currency has weakened to around Tk 122 per dollar from Tk 85 several years ago, thanks to heightened imports in the post-Covid period and commodity price surge in global markets, among other factors.

The government’s total debt rose 1 percent to Tk 21.49 lakh crore in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio up roughly two percentage points to 38.61 percent.

Of the total debt stock, Tk 11.97 lakh crore is domestic borrowing, while the remainder consists of external obligations.

The growing debt load is straining government finances. Interest payments surged 27 percent year-on-year to Tk 31,629 crore during the July-September period in FY26.

Of this, domestic interest payments rose 19 percent, while interest on external borrowings rose 80 percent. Among domestic elements, payment for treasury securities rose by 21 percent and national savings certificates by 16 percent.

Gold prices bounced back to hover near $5,100 on Wednesday, underpinned by safe-haven demand as renewed US-Iran geopolitical tensions added to bullion’s appeal a day after it posted its best day in more than 17 years.

Spot gold was up 2.9 percent at $5,082.94 per ounce, as of 0813 GMT, after surging nearly 6 percent on Tuesday, its biggest daily gain since November 2008. Bullion scaled a record high of $5,594.82 last Thursday.

US gold futures for April delivery climbed 3.4 percent to $5,103.50 per ounce.

The US military on Tuesday shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively” approached the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, the US military said.

Gold is bouncing back from a low of $4,403.24 touched on Monday after its biggest two-day sell-off in decades.

“After such a sharp rally, a correction was expected, it was not surprising and with gold coming back up, the fundamentals have not changed much,” ANZ analyst Soni Kumari said, adding that the geopolitical and economic backdrop remained mostly unchanged.

Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday that it saw significant upside risk to its $5,400 year-end forecast for gold on central banks maintaining their recent pace of accumulation alongside private investors stepping up gold ETF purchases.

“Going ahead ... we are expecting the same $5,600 levels (for gold) by the end of the first half or April-end while prices will continue to rise thereafter and our year-end target is $6,000/oz,” said Jigar Trivedi, a senior research analyst at IndusInd Securities.

Spot silver rose 6.1 percent to $90.34 an ounce. It touched a record high of $121.64 on Thursday but fell to a month-low at $71.33 on Monday having registered a record single-session price wipe-out of 27 percent on Friday.

Markets now await ADP private payroll data for more cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path even as a partial US government shutdown has delayed the closely watched employment report for January.

Bangladesh is destined to face break-neck competition both in US and EU markets with India emerging as a major competitor with double advantages of Washington-proposed tariff cutback and trade deal with the 27-nation European bloc.

Industry insiders and experts sound the alarm over the headwinds about to blow from the two destinations Bangladesh heavily bank on for its readymade garment export -- the nation's main export earner -- and urge government action.

The recent announcement of lowering tariffs on Indian-made goods may be subject to as low as 18-percent tariffs, knocked down from the earlier-imposed 50 per cent. The brusque move from Washington came a week after the announcement of the trade deal between India and European Union.

Bangladesh should immediately act to retain duty -free market access to the European Union and enhance its competitiveness by removing supply-side constraints, industry leaders urge.

A slew of must-dos they list to overcome possible impact of the trade deal between the EU and India: coordinated reforms across trade policy, energy pricing and reliability, logistics and ports, access to finance, skills development and regulatory capacity building.

They also stress both product diversification, mostly by way of producing manmade fibre- based garments, and market diversification through exploring potential non-traditional markets.

Local garment exporters will face cutthroat competition and increased price pressure on the EU market after the free-trade agreement (FTA) announced recently between the EU and India comes into effect, possibly in 2027, as it would grant the neighbouring country's garment makers access to the bloc sans duty on apparel exports, they note.

On the other hand, Bangladesh's current duty-free market access there under EBA (everything but arms) scheme is scheduled to end in 2029 as the county is set to graduate from LDC status this coming November 2026 with a three-year transition period.

Though Bangladesh can apply for GSP- plus facility, its garment products would not get duty-free market access there due to safeguard clauses and are likely to face about 12-percent duty, they said, adding that by this time, another competitor - Vietnam -- would also get duty-free market access.

Talking to The Financial Express, Md Shehab Udduza Chowdhury, vice president of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said India would be in an advantageous position with reduced rate of 18-percent tariffs compared to 20 per cent for Bangladesh.

On the other hand, the trade deal between the EU and India will be 'dangerous' for them, he said, apprehending a possible threat of losing market share there.

"The impact of the deal would be severe for us. Bangladesh is currently facing tough competition on the EU market as India and China are enhancing their focus there to offset US high-tariff impacts," says Faruque Hassan, managing director of Giant Group.

Bangladesh will become less competitive on the EU market once India secures duty-free access there, he warns.

The first and foremost tasks must be to sustain the duty-free market access there, the apparel maker-exporter told the FE, adding that the government also should initiate move to sign FTA to have an even footing on the largest market as a bloc.

Meantime, Chief Adviser of the interim government Prof Muhammad Yunus Sunday directed opening free-trade agreement (FTA) negotiations with the EU forthwith to safeguard Bangladesh's trade preferences on its largest export market.

MA Razzaque, chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), says the US tariff reduction for India might not immediately affect the local garment shipment over there as Indian competitive advantage would not change because it is in disadvantage due to existing higher tariffs.

"But Bangladesh will face tremendous pressure in the medium term of three to five years as the EU-India trade deal would bring extreme challenges," he told the FE, explaining India with its backward linkages, including cotton to yarn and fabrics, will be a major competitor for Bangladesh which has to depend on imported raw materials.

Besides, there are no supply-side constraints for other major garment-producing countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia and Pakistan as Bangladesh face, he adds.

The country has to immediately take measures to remove the supply-side constraints like gas and energy shortages, provide supports to the exporters to be ESG-compliant, develop skilled workforce, and reduce electricity and utility costs, ensure special bank interest rate and simultaneously attract foreign direct investment in RMG sector to boost MMF production.

"To ensure global work orders, FDI is a must for RMG and also for overall export diversification," he notes.

Local exporters will also face price pressure as India would be more competitive, says MA Rahim, vice chairman of DBL Group.

The entrepreneur, however, thinks the EU-India deal would not impact Bangladesh's export immediately, but it would affect gradually.

"India will be a strong future competitor for Bangladesh as the neighbouring country has its own raw materials, including cotton, yarn and fabrics, low labour cost while government facilitates the sector with a number of packages to increase competitiveness," Fazlul Hoque, managing director of Plummy Fashions, points out to underscore the urgency of counterbalancing actions.

Besides, India will jump into the market with better market access also to offset the high tariffs imposed by US administration, he notes.

Echoing Hassan's anxiety, Hoque, who ships up to 80 per cent of his total exports to the EU, says they immediately need government support to reduce cost of production and cost of fund, ensure uninterrupted gas supply and other issues that have been eating up competitiveness.

Hoque voices a consequential note: If Bangladesh fails to secure the duty-free market access under GSP-plus or a bilateral free-trade deal after LDC graduation, it will be out of the market.

The industry also needs to diversify its markets and products and produce manmade-fibre garments, exporters suggest.

They have also demanded incentives for attracting both local and foreign investment into man-made fibre or MMF wears to sustain export growth.

In the last fiscal year of 2024-25, the European Union accounted for more than 50 per cent, coming to US$19.71 billion, of Bangladesh's total garment exports worth over 48 billion US dollars.

Bangladesh Krishi Bank (BKB) has launched a Shariah-styled interest-free fixed deposit scheme aimed at citizens who do not wish to earn interest on their savings.

In a circular issued on 29 January, the state-owned specialised bank instructed all branch managers to start offering account opening for the scheme from 1 February, allowing any Bangladeshi citizen aged 18 or above to open such an account.

Speaking to The Business Standard, BKB Deputy Managing Director Md Khaleduzzaman said the bank's board approved the scheme after considering demand from pious citizens across the country.

Under the scheme, depositors will not receive any interest. As a result, all government and bank charges, including excise duty, will not be borne by the account holders. Instead, the bank will pay those charges on their behalf.

Depositors maintaining a specified balance will also be eligible for a debit card.

According to the circular, Bangladesh is a country with a large number of religious citizens who are interested in saving their hard-earned money for future security but do not wish to accept bank interest.

The bank believes there is strong potential to mobilise interest-free deposits from such customers.

The circular said the initiative was taken to attract interest-free and low-interest deposits and to strengthen the bank's deposit base. Approval for the account was given at the bank's 887th board meeting held on 15 October last year.

Account conditions

However, the "Krishi Bank Interest-Free Fixed Deposit Scheme" has several conditions. A minimum deposit of Tk25,000 is required, while there is no upper limit. The tenure ranges from one month to three years or longer.

According to the bank, government excise duty will be deducted every December as per rules, but the deducted amount will be automatically reimbursed by the branch within two days.

As the account is interest-free, no tax at source will be deducted.

The bank will not charge any account maintenance fees. Charges for account closure, statements and SMS services will also be waived.

In addition to individuals, mosques, temples, pagodas, churches, graveyards, madrasas, religious institutions, clubs, associations and similar organisations will be able to open the account.

Krishi Bank way too short of CMSME lending target

But, the account will be cheque-free, meaning no cheque books will be issued. Customers will receive a deposit receipt at the time of opening the account.

The account cannot be transferred from one branch to another, and no loans will be provided against it.

How it compares with other banks

Such interest-free deposit accounts are usually offered by Islamic Shariah-based banks under the Al-Wadiah system. Conventional banks with Islamic windows also offer similar products.

However, no other state-owned commercial or specialised bank currently offers a dedicated interest-free fixed deposit account. Customers at Sonali, Janata, Rupali and Agrani banks can open savings accounts by declaring in writing that they will not accept interest.

Current accounts at these banks do not offer interest either, and the same applies to most private banks. But, customers usually have to pay various service charges and maintenance fees, depending on the bank.

Currently, Rajshahi Krishi Unnayan Bank offers an interest-free savings account.

Among private banks, City Bank, AB Bank, Trust Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Eastern Bank, United Commercial Bank and Dutch-Bangla Bank provide interest-free services through their Islamic windows or wings.