Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on Tuesday the company has enough supply to accommodate robust growth in central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) as it rides an AI boom.

The company, considered a barometer for the AI market's health as its semiconductors are used in virtually every major data centre in the world, acknowledged, however, that supply constraints remain a concern.

"We've secured supply for very robust growth of all of those systems," Huang said at an Nvidia press conference during the Computex week in Taipei.

"We have supply for very, very robust growth, but we're still supply constrained."

Huang was speaking a day after the $5 trillion chip company unveiled a new chip that brings AI capabilities directly to personal computers.

Nvidia's new chip, which will be launched in the autumn, would pit it against the likes of Advanced Micro Devices, Intel and Apple.

Huang said the RTX Spark PC chip is part of Nvidia's efforts with Microsoft to "reinvent the PC" for the AI era.

Born in Taiwan's southern city of Tainan, the Nvidia chief announced plans last week to invest around $150 billion a year in Taiwan, describing it as the epicentre of the AI revolution.

At the press conference on Tuesday, Huang said Taiwan is a strategic partner for the US because the island is investing in US manufacturing. The company plans to continue to invest in Taiwan and make the supply chain as resilient as possible.

"We are the largest purchaser of any company now for the ecosystem of Taiwan," he said.

Demand for Nvidia AI chips, or GPUs, has generated tens of billions of dollars of revenue and helped make the company the most valuable in the world.

Huang said the company's Vera data centre CPUs would be even more popular than its GPUs because of the CPUs' crucial role in crunching information.

Vera competes with data centre chips made by AMD and Intel.

"This (Vera CPU) is going to be our new major growth driver," Huang said during a presentation on Monday outlining Nvidia's latest AI products.

The United States has proposed additional tariffs on imports from 60 countries, including Bangladesh, after concluding that their efforts to curb trade in goods produced with forced labour are inadequate and restrict US commerce.

The proposal was announced on Tuesday by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) following Section 301 investigations launched earlier this year into forced labour enforcement among major US trading partners.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the failure of trading partners to address imports linked to forced labour creates an uneven playing field for American workers.“The failure of our most important trading partners to address the importation of goods made with forced labor is unacceptable,” Greer said, adding that governments must do more to prevent global trade from encouraging forced labour practices.

The USTR identified 54 economies, including Bangladesh, India, China, Japan, the United Kingdom, Vietnam and Thailand, as failing to impose and effectively enforce bans on the importation of goods produced with forced labour. Another six economies, including Canada, Mexico and Pakistan, were cited for failing to effectively enforce existing prohibitions.Under the proposed framework, countries with partial forced labour import bans or reciprocal trade arrangements with the US would face an additional 10 percent tariff. Countries without such arrangements could face a higher 12.5 percent duty on exports to the United States, according to the proposal.The levies won’t go into effect immediately and are subject to a public comment and review period before implementation, which could result in changes before any duties are codified. Written comments are due to be submitted by July 6, and a Section 301 panel is expected to convene public hearings beginning on July 7, according to the notice.

The action forms part of a broader Section 301 trade strategy that could lead to country-specific tariffs replacing temporary measures due to expire later this year.The USTR also proposed a separate textile mechanism that would allow a specified volume of apparel and textile imports from certain economies to enter the US at reduced Section 301 tariff rates. Details of eligibility and quota levels have not yet been finalised.

In a striking development for Bangladesh's banking sector, non-performing loans (NPLs) increased by Tk31,000 crore within a three-month period. Compared directly with the December quarter, defaulted loans increased by Tk31,488 crore in the March quarter.

By the end of March this year, total defaulted loans had surged to Tk5,88,704 crore, representing a staggering 32.26% of the total loans disbursed. Currently, the total volume of loans disbursed across the banking sector stands at Tk1,824,668 crore.

Sluggish private credit growth and economic stagnation

The first major factor driving the high ratio of non-performing loans is that private credit growth has slowed down significantly, preventing a meaningful increase in total credit. Private sector credit growth has fallen to 4.72%, indicating that the country's overall macroeconomic situation is not very good.

Businessmen are taking fewer loans from banks to conduct business. Instead of expanding new businesses, they are struggling to repay their previous loans. Furthermore, the fuel crisis caused by the war in the Middle East in March has made it more difficult to do business.

Because of these challenges, the country's large business groups have accepted policy support from the Bangladesh Bank. Therefore, if credit growth in the private sector can be successfully increased, the total amount of defaulted loans will naturally decrease.

Low collection, compounding interest, and auditing shift

Secondly, the volume of defaulted loans has mounted due to a combination of low collection rates and interest added directly to the outstanding debt.

In this regard, Bangladesh Bank spokesperson and Executive Director Arief Hossain Khan told The Business Standard, "Loan collection has decreased. Moreover, interest is levied on loans every quarter, which is why the amount of defaulted loans has increased compared to before."

Third, Bangladesh Bank has utilised qualitative assessment while finalising the financial statements of banks. As part of this approach, certain loans identified during the central bank's inspection and assessment have been formally shown as defaulted, directly contributing to the increase in the overall amount of defaulted loans.

Banking practices: Rescheduling vs write-offs

In light of these numbers, some private management directors told TBS that write-offs are usually reduced in the first quarter of the year. In contrast, during the last quarter of the year, write-offs are aggressively increased to make the balance sheet look stronger.

A senior official in a private bank benchmarked this behaviour, pointing out that defaulted loans had previously been reduced from 35% in September to 30% in December.

However, many banks have not been writing off debts following the International Financial Reporting Standards model. Most banks have rescheduled instead of writing off.

"If you just reschedule, there is no benefit in dragging out the loan for 10 years; the defaulted loans will increase. Therefore, these bad loans should be written off instead of rescheduling," a senior official in a private bank said.

Another senior official of a private bank noted that the overdue loan period has been increased to 90 days, and the amount of defaulted loans in the banking sector has been increasing ever since. "On the other hand, during the March quarter, the number of defaulted loans in banks was heavily impacted by broader stagnation."

Macroeconomic stagnation and corporate distress

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director and CEO of Mutual Trust Bank (MTB), believes that in the current economic situation, many companies are failing to do business properly and repay their debts to banks on time.

He observed that large companies are receiving various policy support from the central bank because of these persistent strains.

"Currently, there is a kind of stagnation in the economy. Due to this, many companies are not able to expand their businesses, and many are defaulting due to not being able to do business properly. Again, many institutions are not able to pay down payments on time," Mahbubur told TBS.

Critical factors behind the surge

Md Touhidul Alam Khan, MD and CEO of National Bank, outlined several critical factors explaining the mechanics behind the current NPL surge.

Regarding historical issues surfacing, he noted that previously hidden bad loans from major corporate groups are now being exposed under stricter oversight, revealing years of concealed financial irregularities that artificially suppressed NPL figures.

According to him, the expiration of moratorium periods and loan deferrals has forced banks to reclassify distressed accounts, leading to a sharp increase in reported NPLs as temporary relief measures ended.

Severe economic pressures, such as persistent inflation, rising borrowing costs, and global trade disruptions, have severely impacted business cash flows, making debt servicing difficult even for legitimate enterprises amid political and economic instability.

Governance failures, including weak risk management, inadequate credit evaluation, and poor collateral assessment, have created inherently vulnerable loan portfolios, while political interference in lending decisions has fostered a "culture of default" among influential borrowers.

At the same time, political interference in lending decisions has fostered a culture of default among influential borrowers.

Ultimately, the current crisis represents both the unveiling of historical mismanagement and genuine economic stress, creating a complex, dual challenge for the banking sector's ongoing recovery efforts.

Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury today (Tuesday) said the core philosophy of the upcoming national budget is the democratization of the economy and bringing poor and marginalized communities into the mainstream of economic activities.

“The low-income people have historically been the most deprived in Bangladesh’s budgetary framework. Therefore, we have given priority to the poor, low-income groups and homemakers (housewives) in the upcoming budget,” he said, BSS reports.

The minister made the remarks while addressing a seminar titled “Budget 2026–27: Expectations and Reality” as the chief guest in the capital today, organised by the Economic Reporters Forum (ERF).

ERF President Daulat Akter Mala chaired the seminar. Executive Director of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Dr Fahmida Khatun, Chairman of East Coast Group Azam J Chowdhury and President of the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) Shawkat Aziz Russell attended the programme as special guests. ERF General Secretary Abul Kasem moderated the event.

The Finance Minister also said the next national budget seeks to address rising poverty, expand economic opportunities for marginalised groups and reduce bureaucratic obstacles to business, despite being prepared under exceptionally difficult circumstances.

“Preparing a national budget within one and a half months of assuming office was almost impossible, noting that the process normally takes at least six months,” he said.

He said the government inherited a fragile economy marked by declining indicators, weak investment, growing unemployment and rising poverty, but was nonetheless required to present a budget within the constitutional timeframe.

“The economy has reached a level where significant intervention is needed to restore stability and put it back on the path to prosperity,” he said, likening the situation to priming a tube well by pouring water into it before groundwater can be drawn.

Responding to criticism over the size of the budget amid economic challenges, Khosru said the government was investing heavily to revive economic activity and rebuild confidence.

He said the budget prioritises low-income and disadvantaged groups who have traditionally been overlooked in national fiscal planning.

Among the key initiatives, he highlighted the expansion of the Family Card programme, under which financial assistance will be transferred directly to women heading households through bank accounts, minimizing opportunities for corruption and political influence.

The minister claimed that a pilot project recorded only a 1-1.5 percent deviation rate and expressed confidence that the programme could achieve near-perfect targeting in future.

He also underscored the government’s focus on farmers through the introduction of Farmer Cards, aimed at strengthening food security and improving rural livelihoods.

On healthcare, Khosru said the government is moving towards universal primary healthcare, noting that Bangladeshis spend a disproportionately high share of their own income on medical treatment.

He said the programme would be implemented through partnerships involving the private sector and non-governmental organisations rather than relying solely on government agencies.

The finance minister also announced significant support for what he termed the “creative economy”, including artisans, weavers, folk craftsmen, performers, theatre artists and other cultural workers.

Under the initiative, targeted groups will receive skills training, access to finance, design assistance, branding support and opportunities to market products online, drawing inspiration from successful international models such as Thailand’s “One Village, One Product” programme.

Khosru said economic growth should not be measured solely through industrial production, arguing that creative industries and cultural activities also contribute significantly to gross domestic product (GDP).

“Our vision is the democratisation of the economy,” he said. “Economic participation and the benefits of growth must reach every citizen and every community.”

The minister reiterated the government’s commitment to strengthening the private sector, describing it as the primary driver of economic growth while positioning the state as a facilitator rather than a regulator.

He announced plans to simplify regulatory procedures through a one-stop service system under which multiple approvals would be processed within specified timeframes.

Applications not acted upon within the prescribed period would be deemed approved, he said.

Calling for a “deregulated economy”, Khosru said excessive controls had constrained businesses, citizens and institutions for years.

On budget implementation, he acknowledged concerns over low execution rates and said the government would introduce digital monitoring systems across the ministries.

According to the minister, all development projects will be tracked through dashboards at the ministry, finance ministry and Prime Minister’s Office levels, allowing delays and bottlenecks to be identified in real time.

He said future project selection would be guided by four criteria: value for money, return on investment, job creation and environmental sustainability.

The government has already reviewed around 1,300 ongoing projects inherited from previous administrations and plans to cancel those that fail to meet the new standards while repurposing others to improve economic returns, he added.

Turning to the capital market, Khosru said the government is restructuring the securities regulator and expects to appoint a new professional leadership team within weeks.

He said reforms would help attract quality listed companies, reduce pressure on the banking sector and enable businesses to raise long-term financing through the capital market.

The minister also said international financial institutions and major investment firms, including global fund managers, had expressed interest in Bangladesh as economic reforms gather pace.

Khosru expressed confidence that the budget’s inclusive approach, coupled with stronger governance and implementation mechanisms, would help restore stability and lay the foundation for sustainable and equitable economic growth.

He said money under the Family Card programme would be transferred directly to beneficiaries’ accounts, ensuring no political influence or intermediary involvement in the process.

Referring to the agriculture sector, the minister said a “Farmers Card” initiative has been introduced to strengthen food security and improve farmers’ living standards.

On the health sector, Amir Khasru said people in Bangladesh continue to incur high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses. In response, the government is prioritising the expansion of universal and primary healthcare services with the participation of government institutions, the private sector and NGOs.

A surge of US crude oil is arriving in Asia, but the record volumes are nowhere near enough to offset the loss of cargoes from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Asia’s imports of US ​crude were 63.56 million barrels in May, the most for a single month although at 2.05 million barrels per day (bpd) they were slightly ‌behind the 2.07 million bpd from June 2023, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

However, more US oil is on the way, with Kpler tracking arrivals of 2.32 million bpd in June and 3.07 million bpd in July.

This is more than double the average of 1.37 million bpd of US crude that Asia imported in the three months to the end of February.

The ​United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 and Tehran retaliated by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of ​global crude oil and refined products moved prior to the start of the conflict.

While some Middle Eastern exporters such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have managed to re-route some oil exports to ports outside the strait, at least 10 million bpd of supply remains unavailable ​as the Iran conflict drags on.

About 1.2 million bpd of crude reached Asia in May through the Strait of Hormuz as some vessels secured Iranian approval to transit, ​but this is down from the average of 13.54 million bpd in the three months ended February.

The scale of the loss of cargoes through the strait overwhelms the additional volumes Asia has secured from the United States, as well as from other exporters in the Americas and Africa.

Asia’s seaborne crude arrivals in May were 19.47 million bpd, up from 18.7 million bpd in April, ​which was the lowest in more than 10 years, according to Kpler data.

However, even May’s higher arrivals were still 22 percent down from the average of 24.82 million ​bpd for the three months to the end of February.

It’s this loss of more than 5 million bpd in supplies that will ultimately lead to tough choices for Asia’s refiners.

So far ‌they have managed to keep plants operating by a combination of using up commercial and in some cases strategic stockpiles, while also reducing processing rates.

But there are now questions being asked as to how much longer the world can continue to deplete inventories before refiners are forced to significantly cut back throughput amid crude shortages.

There is an emerging consensus among most analysts and oil executives that the clock is ticking louder.

It’s likely that the process won’t be spread evenly across the world, with some regions likely ​to be able to continue producing and ​refining oil at usual rates, but others struggling to secure supply.

Ultimately, if the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen within the coming weeks and doesn’t remain open on a sustainable basis, it’s likely that prices for refined fuels will have to increase in order to force a reduction ​in demand.

Asia, which took about 80 percent of the usual volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, is the most exposed and ​it’s likely that less well-developed, fuel-importing countries such as Bangladesh, the Philippines and Pakistan will experience the pain soonest.

There are also likely to be increasing questions asked in the United States about the rapid depletion of inventories amid record crude and product exports.

US politicians from both major parties tend to focus heavily on domestic issues and it isn’t hard to see them increasingly opposing oil ​and fuel exports in the mistaken belief that this will somehow lower retail prices at home.

Profits at most non-life insurance companies rose in the first quarter (January–March) of the current year compared to the same period last year mainly due to the introduction of zero commission in non-life insurance, cost cuts against the growth in marine insurance business.

Industry stakeholders attributed the increase to the introduction of zero commission in non-life insurance, companies' efforts to reduce management expenses, and growth in marine insurance business. They also believe the sector could see further improvement if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease.

Stakeholders noted that regulators have long received complaints about irregularities involving individual agents, including excessive commissions, mis-selling of policies, misleading customers, unnecessary policy sales, and artificially inflated premium income shown on paper.

The Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (IDRA) also have information that some companies used multiple software systems and undisclosed bank accounts to conceal commission-related transactions.

However, the removal of commissions is expected to reduce management expenses and lift profitability. As commission-based sales decline, unnecessary policy sales may also fall. Premium pricing could become more realistic and customer-friendly, artificial inflation of premium income may ease, and healthier market competition is anticipated.

According to Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) data, 39 of 43 listed non-life insurers have published their quarterly results so far. Of these, 31 reported higher profits in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, while eight reported lower profits. The remaining four companies have yet to release their results.

Non-life insurance companies primarily cover risks such as fire, health, motor, marine, engineering, and liability.

Strong performers

Desh General Insurance led the pack with profit growth of around 120%, posting a net profit of Tk44 lakh in the quarter against Tk20 lakh a year earlier. Its share price rose 2.54% to Tk24.20 today (2 June).

Peoples Insurance reported a 105% increase in profit, reaching Tk5.96 crore from Tk2.91 crore a year ago. The company said lower agency commission expenses, reduced operating costs, and fewer claim settlements helped cut costs, lifting profit, operating cash flow, EPS, and NOCFPS.

Phoenix Insurance recorded a 67% rise in profit, earning Tk2.62 crore compared with Tk1.57 crore in the same period last year. The company cited higher premium and other income for the growth, while investment gains improved NAV per share and stronger cash collections boosted NOCFPS. Its share price rose 4.36% to Tk43.10 today.

Pragati Insurance posted a 55% increase in profit, with EPS rising to Tk1.63 from Tk1.05 a year earlier. The company attributed the growth to higher operating and other income, improved premium cash collections, and gains in investments, dividend and interest receivables, and cash equivalents, all of which strengthened NAV per share. Its share price also rose 3.07% to Tk70.40 today.

Under pressure

Agrani Insurance reported a 48% decline in profit, with EPS falling to 17 paisa from 33 paisa a year ago. The company cited lower premium and other income alongside higher claim settlements as the key drivers of the weaker performance.

United Insurance posted a 46–47% decline in profit, with net profit falling to Tk1.07 crore from Tk2 crore, and EPS dropping to Tk0.24 from Tk0.45.

Speaking to TBS, Managing Director of United Insurance Khawja Manzer Nadeem said, around 15% of total income went towards claim settlements during the quarter, largely tied to a fire incident at the airport that required payouts to clients including Unilever. He noted that the company's underlying business performance was otherwise positive, but the elevated claims overshadowed the gains.

Green Delta Insurance saw profit fall 29%, Mercantile Islami Insurance by 19%, and Rupali Insurance by 18% during the same quarter.

Overall, the majority of non-life insurers reported profit growth in the first quarter, though higher claims and softer investment income continued to weigh on a handful of companies.

India and the United States are “about 99 percent” done with the first tranche of a trade deal, the commerce minister said, as a US delegation began talks in New Delhi on Tuesday.

The delegation, led by Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch, is holding three days of talks with Indian trade officials, as the two sides seek to close negotiations.

“About 99 percent of the issues have been settled,” Indian commerce minister Piyush Goyal told reporters in Delhi late Monday.

The two countries reached an initial understanding for the trade deal in February, but negotiations slowed after President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures were struck down by the US Supreme Court.

After the court order, the Trump administration launched investigations into unfair trade practices against several countries, including India, while imposing a blanket 10 percent tariff.

Goyal said negotiators were examining how recent legal changes in the United States should be reflected in the final text of the agreement.

“I am fully confident that we will conclude and sign the first tranche of the bilateral trade agreement with the United States,” Goyal said, adding that discussions would then continue on a broader and more comprehensive pact.

“Discussions are continuing on minor details, essentially the commas and full stops.”

Last week, US ambassador Sergio Gor said he expected the interim trade deal to be signed “in the next few weeks”.

Washington and New Delhi have set a target of boosting bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, holding multiple rounds of negotiations since March to resolve market access and tariff disputes.

India says the deal protects its sensitive dairy and agricultural products while opening a $30 trillion market for exporters.

The United Nations Committee for Development Policy (UN CDP) has recommended that Bangladesh’s Least Developed Country (LDC) graduation be postponed until November 24, 2029, putting the country in good standing to receive preferential trade benefits for three more years.

“The extension of the preparatory period should not be viewed as an opportunity to delay reforms -- rather, it should serve as a catalyst for accelerating them,” the CDP said in its critical assessment report.

Bangladesh has exceeded the graduation thresholds by a significant margin under all three LDC graduation criteria and faces a very low risk of falling below these thresholds in the near to medium term.

But the recent crisis in the Middle East, uncertainties in global energy and supply chains, changes in the international trading environment, and global challenges could affect the country’s graduation preparedness and transition process, the CDP said.

An extension of the preparatory period would provide Bangladesh with more time to better assess the implications of the current global situation, identify priority actions and prepare adequately for the post-graduation landscape, including the loss of certain market preferences and international support measures.

Bangladesh formally requested the CDP to extend the preparatory period on February 18, with Prime Minister Tarique Rahman writing to the UN Secretary-General seeking his personal support on the matter.

The extension could be approved at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in September.

The UN CDP’s positive note on the extension of the graduation of Bangladesh will be sent to the UNGA through the United Nations Economic and Social Council (UN ECOSOC) for its final approval by the member countries.

The UN CDP’s positive recommendations made Bangladesh’s plea of extension morally strong in the pathway for the UNGA’s final approval, said Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID).

Now, Bangladesh will have to maintain better engagement with the major trading partners such as India, China and the EU so that the extension is approved by the member countries in the upcoming UNGA.

The reason being Bangladesh is the highest user of the LDC benefits given by the developed and developing nations.

Bangladesh alone utilises 67 percent of the benefits given to all 44 LDCs by the other countries and 73 percent of its exports export is LDC induced, he said.

Different studies suggest that Bangladesh may lose $17.5 billion in export earnings in a year because of LDC graduation.

If Bangladesh gets the final approval at the UNGA, the country will enjoy the preferential trade benefits for three more years.

The CDP’s recommendation is a positive sign for Bangladesh, said Mostafa Abid Khan, a former member of the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission.

However, CDP Chair José Antonio Ocampo emphasised that Bangladesh would need to make significant progress in implementing key domestic reforms to address its existing structural vulnerabilities during this extended period.

In its report, the CDP underscored the importance of continued support from the international community for Bangladesh during both the preparatory period and the post-graduation phase.

Such support includes concessional financing, appropriate extension of LDC-specific International Support Measures, technical assistance and enhanced capacity for trade negotiations.

The report highlighted the importance of domestic reforms, particularly in ensuring financial sector stability, increasing tax revenue, strengthening domestic resource mobilisation, enhancing productive capacities, promoting economic diversification and preparing the private sector for graduation.

The government firmly believes that, with the support of the international community and the successful implementation of ongoing reforms, Bangladesh will be able to achieve a smooth, sustainable and successful graduation from the LDC category, said a statement from the Economic Relations Division.

The Trump administration has proposed a new ​punitive tariff of 25% on many imports from Brazil, after deciding its practices were unfair on a range of issues from digital trade to ‌illegal deforestation, top trade official Jamieson Greer said late on Monday.

The measures, under the Section 301 trade statute, cover areas such as electronic payment services, preferential tariffs, intellectual property protection and ethanol market access as well, the Office of the United States Trade Representative said.

The proposed new tariff, subject to public consultation ahead of a July 15 deadline, would exclude some items, such as beef, coffee, rare earths, other metals, energy ​and aircraft parts.

The USTR said its unfair trade practices investigation into Brazil, started last year under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, had found practices ​that "are unreasonable and burden or restrict US commerce," opening the door for a punitive tariff.

Greer, speaking on CNBC, called the Brazil action "quite ⁠nuanced" because of the broad exemptions. He said that the trade agency will release the findings of several more Section 301 unfair trade practices investigations in coming weeks, adding ​that substantial tariffs were needed to correct a "giant" US trade deficit.

Brazil's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Two Brazilian officials familiar with the matter said the ​justifications for a new US tariff ignored many of the arguments presented by Brasilia in recent months, suggesting the motives were political rather than technical.

Despite a White House visit last month by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, bilateral relations have turned chilly.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio designated Brazil's two biggest criminal gangs as terrorist organizations over objections from Brasilia, opening the door for more aggressive interventions in the ​country.

Days earlier, Lula's main rival in the October election, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, had argued in favor of the terrorist label during a tour of Washington that included meetings with Rubio, ​Vice President JD Vance and President Donald Trump.

"I expressly asked President Trump not to tariff our companies," Bolsonaro wrote on X on Tuesday. "Tariffs are not the solution."

Tariff replacements

The USTR's proposed new tariff would ‌partially replace ⁠a tariff of 50% on many Brazilian goods imposed last year by Trump, with 40% as a punishment for Brazil's prosecution of the Brazilian senator's father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

The US Supreme Court struck down those duties in February.

In a statement, Greer said he launched the Section 301 investigation to tackle "longstanding and pervasive US concerns with certain of Brazil's trade policies and practices."

Despite recent engagement with Brazilian President Inacio Lula da Silva and his cabinet, Greer said the United States and Brazil "continue to have substantial differences in resolving issues identified in ​this investigation."

6 July public hearing

The trade agency ​invited comment on the proposed tariffs through 1 July, with a public hearing set for 6 July. It faces a 15 July deadline for taking "responsive action" in the Section 301 investigation.

Trump used the same statute to impose sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods during his first term.

The USTR has several other open ​Section 301 investigations that are expected to lead to new duties.

Among these are one covering excess industrial capacity in China and 15 ​other trading partners, as ⁠well as one into enforcement of forced labor bans in 60 countries.

The agency opened a new investigation on Friday into Vietnam's intellectual property practices.

Regarding its Brazil findings, the USTR said the proposed new 25% tariff would not apply to Brazilian imports subject to national security-related tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

These include 50% duties on steel, aluminum and copper ⁠and 25% ​duties on finished products made from those metals, as well as a 25% duty on motor vehicles and ​auto parts.

The USTR said products exempted from the proposed 25% tariffs included many fruits and nuts, crude oil and petroleum products, pharmaceutical compounds, organic chemicals and fertilizers.

These are in addition to beef, coffee, rare earths, certain other ​metals and ores and Brazilian aircraft and aircraft parts.

In the first days of March, Petrobangla went looking for an emergency cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and no seller would bid. A second tender drew nothing either. Only by negotiating one-to-one did it secure two cargoes, one at $28.28 per million British thermal units against $9.99 in December. The war that closed the Strait of Hormuz exposed something harder to fix than price: the way Bangladesh buys gas.

The budget the finance minister presents on June 11 will answer that with money. He has told parliament the war will require roughly Tk 36,000 crore in extra power, energy and LNG subsidies between March and June. The LNG share alone could reach $1.07 billion in a single quarter, against the Tk 9,000 crore set aside for the whole year. The cheque pays the bill. It does not change why the bill keeps coming.

Bangladesh believed it had two kinds of protection: long-term contracts for steady supply and the spot market as a backup. The war showed they were the same protection in two guises. Its contracted gas comes from QatarEnergy, Oman’s OQ Trading and the American firm Excelerate, and its spot cargoes come from the same region through the same strait. When Qatar declared force majeure in early March, the other suppliers followed because their gas originated in the same place. Qatar alone was due to ship about 40 of this year’s 115 cargoes and Oman another 16, so two safety nets turned out to be a single bet.

The Excelerate arrangement makes the point. While it appears to diversify supply, the gas still originates in Qatar and passes through the same route. When Qatar stopped, the apparent diversification disappeared.

Look at this the way a fund manager would. Bangladesh has concentrated almost everything in one price formula, one route and one chokepoint. No one would run an investment portfolio that way. The country does not mainly have a price problem to subsidise; it has a portfolio nobody designed.

India shows the alternative. Its Qatari cargoes were affected too, but over years it spread purchases across different price formulas and sea routes. Some gas is priced off the American benchmark Henry Hub, near $3, while Asian spot prices surged past $20, and it travels across the Atlantic, far from Hormuz.

Fahmida Khatun has rightly argued for a portfolio approach with caps on any single source. The next step is recognising that buying from more countries is not the same as buying on more price formulas or routes. It is the latter that matters when a key shipping lane closes.

The deeper fixes are real, and the budget should fund them: more domestic gas, more solar and less waste. But none of that changes the cargoes the country must buy next month. The tool is already in hand. In May, the World Bank doubled its energy facility for Bangladesh to $700 million, allowing Petrobangla to finance LNG purchases through letters of credit and short-term credit lines. Right now, it is being used only to pay this year’s premium.

Used by the finance ministry and Petrobangla to anchor a standing framework, it could support three rules: buy a set share of gas on price formulas other than oil so one spike cannot move the whole bill; buy a set share through routes that avoid Hormuz so one closed strait cannot halt supply; and maintain a cleared list of sellers, with the exit clauses this crisis showed were missing, before the next shock.

A budget that only raises the subsidy treats the symptom, not the cause. Bangladesh has been buying gas like a price-taker. It can start buying like an investor who spreads risk, so no single shock can corner the country.

India and Oman today (1 June) enforced a bilateral free trade accord which offers zero-duty access for 99.38% of India's exports to the Persian Gulf country, the Indian commerce ministry said.

All zero-duty concessions under the bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) come into effect immediately, providing certainty and competitiveness to Indian exporters, the ministry said in a statement.

Earlier, under the Most Favoured Nation regime, only 15.33% of India's exports entered Oman duty-free. With CEPA, Indian exporters gain substantial price competitiveness in Oman's nearly $28 billion import market.

Speaking on the occasion, Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said that with 99.38% of India's exports receiving duty-free access, the CEPA, signed in December last year, unlocks new opportunities for Indian exporters and professionals.

India, in turn, has offered tariff liberalisation on 77.79% of tariff lines covering 94.81% of imports from Oman by value, while maintaining strong safeguards for sensitive sectors.

Products including dairy products, cereals, fruits, vegetables, edible oils, oilseeds, rubber, leather, spices and key agricultural products have been kept out of CEPA in order to protect India's domestic industries, said the statement.

India is only the second country, after the United States, to secure a comprehensive bilateral trade pact with Oman.

The CEPA will strengthen India's dominance in fisheries, meat, eggs, marine products, and processed foods with duty elimination.

Oman offers a gateway to the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and East Africa and Oman's logistics hubs at Sohar, Duqm, and Salalah are expected to amplify India's regional trade connectivity.

To mark the entry into force, the first consignments availing preferential tariff benefits under the agreement, including agriculture and gems and jewellery exports from Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai, were flagged off.

Oman is India's second-largest trading partner in the Gulf region and serves as a strategic gateway to the wider GCC market through its advanced port infrastructure.

Bilateral trade between India and Oman reached $11.18 billion in FY2025-26, up from $10.61 billion in FY2024-25.

All marine products, including shrimp, fish, and cuttlefish, will get immediate duty-free access, replacing earlier import duties of up to 5%.

Oman's marine imports stood at $35.3 million in 2025, while India's exports accounted for only $10 million, indicating substantial untapped potential.

Import duties of up to 5% on gems and jewellery have been eliminated from day one.

Indian exporters gain a structural price advantage over competitors from Italy, Turkey, Thailand, and China.

Oman's total gems and jewellery import market is $1.07 billion annually. India's exports to Oman in this sector stood at $25.78 million in 2025, comprising $18.48 million in polished natural diamonds and $6.67 million in gold jewellery.

It is projected that exports could increase sixfold to $150 million within three years.

Clusters in Surat (diamonds), Jaipur (gemstones), Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai are positioned to capture this growth.

India is Oman's second-largest agricultural supplier with a 17.8% share in Omani imports. Duty elimination strengthens India's competitiveness in products such as honey, condiments, cashews, basmati rice, butter and sweet biscuits.

India currently accounts for over 94% of Oman's bovine meat imports and over 98% of fresh egg imports, making Oman one of India's most important agricultural export destinations in the Gulf region.

The factory has remained closed for 24 years since 2002, while losses have continued to mount year after year. There is also no publicly disclosed information indicating that production will resume anytime soon.

Despite the company's deteriorating financial condition, Meghna PET Industries' recent share price tells a completely different story.

Over the past three months, the company's stock has surged by nearly 245%, raising the eyebrows of market insiders.

Meghna PET owns and operates an industrial plant for processing of integral mineral water, PET bottle manufacturing and filling of edible oil and selling of mineral water and edible oil.

In the fiscal 2024-25, it incurred a loss of Tk4.40 crore with a per-share loss of Tk2.75, and did not recommend any dividends for its shareholders.

According to data of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, in March, its share price was Tk24 apiece, which gradually rose to Tk82.9 yesterday.

Trading in the stock remained halted for the past two consecutive sessions. Although there were buyers at the maximum daily price limit, no sellers were available, the data showed.

Despite the sharp surge in the share price of the closed company, the lack of action from regulatory authorities such as the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission and the DSE has raised questions among market participants.

A similar scenario is also seen in the case of Meghna Condensed Milk. The company has remained out of production since December 2021.

Its retained loss as of June 2024 stood at Tk145 crore, surpassing its total assets of Tk140 crore.

However, its stock has witnessed sharp price rallies in recent months, raising concerns among market participants over the disconnect between the company's fundamentals and its market performance.

On 18 January, Meghna Condensed Milk's share price stood at Tk12.1, while it closed at Tk46.1 yesterday, marking a 280% increase over the period.

Market insiders said a group of investors had targeted low-paid-up capital companies such as Meghna PET Industries and Meghna Condensed Milk because their relatively small number of outstanding shares makes it easier to drive up prices.

They alleged that some influential investors were spreading rumours about potential ownership changes and fresh investment that could restart operations at full capacity, despite production remaining suspended.

To inform the investors, the DSE published a list of closed firms in January this year.

An official at the DSE, seeking anonymity, told TBS, "We can aware investors only about informing the status of the company. In line with the motto, we have already published a list of non-performing companies. Investors should invest at their own risk."

Al-Amin, a professor in the Department of Accounting at the University of Dhaka, criticised the apparent lack of regulatory action.

"The share price of a company that has been closed for 24 years is increasing in front of everyone's eyes. This clearly indicates that some group in the market is playing a role in driving up the price of this share," he said.

Prof Al-Amin added, "Even though the share price of a non-producing company is increasing, neither the BSEC nor the DSE is taking any initiative. There is negligence on the part of the regulatory bodies in investigating why the price is rising and taking necessary measures."

Questioning the adequacy of the exchange's response, he said it was important to consider whether the responsibility of regulators ended with the publication of a list of closed companies.

"In cases of companies with abnormal price hikes, the stock exchange or the commission can take action in the interest of investors, yet they are doing nothing," he added.

Attempts to obtain comments from BSEC spokesperson Abul Kalam were unsuccessful, as he did not respond to telephone calls.

The government is likely to unveil its full-term tax plan on June 11, outlining income tax-free limits and tax rates for individual taxpayers up to the fiscal year 2030-31 (FY31), the final year of its tenure.

Under the plan, the tax-free income threshold is expected to gradually rise to Tk 4.5 lakh by FY31 in an effort to ease pressure on taxpayers amid persistently high inflation.

At present, individuals can earn up to Tk 3.5 lakh a year without paying income tax. This limit is set to increase to Tk 3.75 lakh in FY28 under the interim government’s earlier two-year tax framework.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is expected to go further in his first national budget on June 11 by introducing a broader three-year predictable tax system running through FY31.

Under the proposed roadmap, the tax-free income threshold will rise to Tk 4 lakh from FY29 and remain unchanged through FY30.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman approved the proposal in principle on May 14 during a high-level meeting at the Secretariat, according to finance ministry officials who attended the meeting.

“The government wants to introduce a predictable tax plan so that taxpayers can set their financial plans accordingly,” a senior finance ministry official said, adding that the higher threshold would offer modest relief to lower-income earners.

However, economists and tax analysts have questioned whether the planned increases are sufficient given persistently high inflation.

“One positive aspect is that the government is providing predictability in tax policy. At the same time, it is making some adjustments for inflation, although we need to assess whether the increase fully matches inflation in percentage terms,” said Towfiqul Islam Khan of the Centre for Policy Dialogue.

Others argue that deeper structural issues remain.

“While policymakers understand the political economy needs to raise the tax-free threshold, they are also constrained by institutional pressure to boost revenue collection. Ultimately, that consideration appears to be driving their decisions,” Khan said.

“This is precisely why we have argued for separating tax policy from tax administration and revenue collection,” he added.

Inflation has remained around 9 percent since March 2023, significantly eroding real incomes. In April, inflation stood at 9.04 percent, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

Amid rising living costs, economists and business groups have repeatedly called for a higher tax-free income threshold, with many proposing an increase to Tk 5 lakh.

“Globally, setting tax rates in advance helps with planning, but international best practice usually limits this to a two- or three-year window, along with an automatic inflation adjustment mechanism,” said tax policy analyst Snehasish Barua.

He warned that extending fixed tax brackets until FY31 could create structural distortions in the tax system.

“Locking in fixed tax brackets until 2031 means that as prices rise, people will be pushed into higher tax brackets without any real increase in their purchasing power or wealth,” said Barua, managing director of SMAC Advisory Services.

He also expressed concerns about fairness, saying that partial adjustments could disproportionately affect middle-income earners. “Global tax standards also emphasise vertical equity. If only the initial tax-free threshold is raised while higher slabs remain unchanged, it creates an unfair ‘middle-class squeeze’,” he said.

Barua added that predictability should be balanced with flexibility, arguing that “long-term fiscal certainty must be paired with proportional, inflation-linked adjustments across all income slabs, rather than rigidly fixed rates stretching to 2030–31,” to align with global norms.

For more than a decade, the unveiling of the national budget has triggered a familiar chorus of reactions. Headlines routinely describe it as a “big budget”, a “massive budget” or a “debt-driven budget”, as if its size alone determines its significance.

Politicians, business leaders and ordinary citizens have all weighed in with sharp quips. Some dismiss it as nothing more than a “numbers game”. Others argue that the headline figure looks “impressive” but says “little” about the government’s actual spending capacity.

Yet a comparison with neighbouring countries tells a different story.

In terms of government expenditure as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services the country produces in a year, Bangladesh has one of the lowest ratios in South Asia and among countries scheduled to graduate from the least developed country club.

In simple terms, Bangladesh’s budget is like a small water tank serving a rapidly growing city.

The culprit? Mainly weak revenue collection. Relative to the size of its economy, Bangladesh’s tax take is among the lowest in the world.

But why does budget size matter in the first place?

Basically, government expenditure finances essential public services such as healthcare, education, law enforcement and public administration. Higher spending on healthcare and education generally benefits ordinary and marginalised people the most.

In 2024, Bangladesh’s government expenditure stood at just 12.03 percent of GDP, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data.

In the same year, government expenditure accounted for 28.38 percent of GDP in India, 19.47 percent in Pakistan and 19.32 percent in Sri Lanka. The ratio was 27.13 percent in Bhutan, 17.26 percent in Cambodia, 23 percent in Hong Kong and 16.84 percent in Indonesia.

In neighbouring Myanmar, government expenditure in 2024 amounted to 23.4 percent of GDP. Among countries graduating from the LDC category, the ratio in that year stood at 33.55 percent in Senegal and 35.81 percent in the Solomon Islands.

Globally, only a small number of fragile economies, including Ethiopia, Haiti, Sudan and Yemen, recorded lower government expenditure-to-GDP ratios than Bangladesh.

According to Fahmida Khatun, executive director of local think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), the country’s limited public spending reflects weak revenue mobilisation rather than fiscal restraint. It is also linked to longstanding weaknesses in project implementation.

“But the main reason behind low government expenditure is low revenue collection,” she said.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) collected Tk 370,874 crore in fiscal year 2024-25, falling Tk 92,626 crore short of its revised target. The original target had been Tk 480,000 crore before being reduced by Tk 18,500 crore.

As a result, the tax-to-GDP ratio dropped to just 6.8 percent, one of the lowest among countries at a similar stage of development.

Fahmida attributed the poor revenue performance to institutional weaknesses, limited administrative capacity within the revenue board and governance shortcomings.

She also pointed out that even the resources collected are not always used efficiently. Delays, cost overruns and implementation bottlenecks often prevent public spending from delivering the expected economic benefits.

The problem extends to foreign financing as well. Bangladesh has access to substantial external funding. But many foreign-assisted projects suffer from implementation delays, reducing the country’s ability to utilise those foreign resources.

The consequences are far-reaching.

Government spending supports essential services, builds infrastructure and strengthens social protection programmes. These investments improve living standards, reduce inequality and create conditions for stronger economic growth.

Infrastructure spending is particularly important because it encourages private investment and job creation.

“If physical infrastructure does not improve, private-sector investment will not be encouraged, and economic growth may fall short of its potential,” said Fahmida.

She said higher and more efficient public spending could therefore make a substantial contribution to both economic development and social welfare.

However, increasing expenditure alone is not enough. The quality and timeliness of spending matter just as much, added the economist.

The country’s development spending has long been hampered by implementation weaknesses.

According to the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED), only 41.41 percent of the revised Annual Development Programme (ADP) allocation was utilised during the first 10 months of fiscal year 2025-26.

That means the challenge is not simply the size of the budget. It is also the state’s ability to execute projects efficiently.

Non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking sector jumped by Tk 31,487 crore in the first three months of this year after a slight decline owing to the reclassification of rescheduled loans, lacklustre recovery, and overall economic slowdown.

At the end of March this year, total NPLs in the banking sector stood at Tk 588,704 crore, accounting for 32.26 percent of the total Tk 1,824,668 crore in disbursed loans, according to the latest data from Bangladesh Bank.

By the end of last year, the ratio of classified loans had dropped to 30 percent from 36 percent in September 2025, thanks to large-scale loan rescheduling under a special policy support programme by the BB.

Of the total NPLs, 94 percent falls into the bad and loss category, a level that economists say reflects not just economic stress but a breakdown of financial discipline among the country’s most powerful borrowers.

“Loan defaulting has emerged as a damaging culture in the country,” said Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director at the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM) and former BB chief economist.

“We are now seeing that even some of the country’s largest business conglomerates have become loan defaulters,” he said.

“These groups have received various forms of policy support from the government and Bangladesh Bank over the years, yet they still fail to repay their loans,” added Mujeri.

The economist blamed the rising volume of NPLs on a lack of strict action against defaulters, pointing out that these conglomerates cite a range of global and domestic challenges to obtain policy support, but they do not use those facilities to settle their debts.

“Under loan rescheduling schemes, many of these borrowers have been granted up to 10 years to repay their loans, yet a number of them eventually default again,” he said.

Instead of continuing to provide concessions to these defaulting borrowers, the authorities must take strict action against them immediately, Mujeri suggested, adding that otherwise the country’s banking sector will face serious consequences.

Meanwhile, bankers also point out that some top borrowers and businesses have suffered losses due to weak demand amid high inflation and the economic slowdown caused by the war in the Middle East.

Many good loans are showing signs of stress, and the overall banking sector is going through a downturn, which is why NPLs may have increased, said Mashrur Arefin, chairman of the Association of Bankers, Bangladesh (ABB).

Arefin, also the managing director and CEO of City Bank, said when discussing the reasons for the spike in NPLs, either the policy support cases were overhyped, many borrowers could not make the required down payments, or external auditors did not agree with many of the weak cases during annual profit audits.

He added that some weak banks with newly formed boards decided to take higher provisioning hits once and for all, which also contributed to the increase.

According to BB, compared with a year earlier, bad loans increased by Tk 168,370 crore. At the end of March 2025, NPLs stood at Tk 420,334 crore, with a ratio of 24.13 percent.

Due to the high volume of defaulted loans in the banking sector, the provision shortfall stood at Tk 205,665 crore as of March this year, data shows.

A provision shortfall in banking refers to the gap between the funds a financial institution is legally required to set aside to cover potential losses from bad loans and the amount it actually has in reserve. When borrowers fail to repay, banks must absorb these losses by drawing on current profits or core capital.

NPLs in the banking sector have continued to rise since the fall of the Awami League-led government on August 5, 2024, as many businessmen fled the country and many of their businesses shut down, pushing up bad loans.

Large borrowers such as S Alam, Beximco, AnonTex, Abdul Monem, Nassa Group, and Sikder Group defaulted on a large scale after the fall of the Awami League government in August 2024, causing an unprecedented rise in bad loans.

Central bank data states that NPLs at state-run banks stood at Tk 149,785 crore, accounting for 46 percent of their disbursed loans. Bad loans at private commercial banks stood at Tk 416,482 crore, representing 31.1 percent of their disbursed loans.

NPLs at foreign banks stood at Tk 3,263 crore, or 5 percent of their outstanding loans.

NPLs at specialised banks stood at Tk 19,175 crore, or 41 percent of their disbursed loans, the data shows.

The upcoming budget for fiscal year 2026-27 will seek to widen economic participation by bringing traditionally overlooked groups into the mainstream economy, Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said yesterday.

Speaking at a pre-budget discussion organised by the Economic Reporters’ Forum, he said the government aims to create greater opportunities for low-income households, farmers, artisans, cultural workers and women to contribute to and benefit from economic growth.

The minister described the budget as an effort to “democratise the economy”, ensuring that the gains of development reach a broader segment of society rather than being concentrated among a few groups.

Particular emphasis has been placed on supporting women, especially homemakers, whose contributions to family welfare and the wider economy have largely remained outside formal economic structures, he added.

“The budget will also include measures aimed at strengthening livelihoods for farmers, artisans and cultural workers, while expanding opportunities for lower-income families to participate more actively in economic activities,” he said.

To reduce out-of-pocket healthcare expenses for people across the country, a groundbreaking Universal Primary Healthcare project will be implemented nationwide through a collaboration between NGOs and the private sector, he added.

For instance, he said the government’s planned Family Card and Farmers Card programmes could be managed by private firms and NGOs to minimise political influence, improve transparency and reduce leakages.

The minister acknowledged that weak implementation has long undermined the effectiveness of public spending, despite successive governments announcing large budgets and development programmes.

“Budget implementation has been a problem. That is a correct observation,” he said, adding that the government is now trying to identify where projects get stuck and who is responsible for delays.

To address the issue, the government plans to introduce digital dashboards to monitor every development project, he said. “The dashboards will be accessible to individual ministries, the finance ministry and the Prime Minister’s Office, enabling authorities to track progress in real time and identify officials responsible for missed deadlines.”

Also speaking at the event, Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), identified revenue mobilisation as one of the biggest challenges for the upcoming budget, warning that Bangladesh has consistently failed to meet its tax collection targets over the past decade.

She spoke in favour of higher spending on education, healthcare and social protection, but noted that the real concern is whether the government can generate the revenue needed to finance its ambitions.

“Simply raising tax targets will not work without deep institutional reforms in revenue administration,” she said, adding that successive governments have relied on piecemeal measures instead of comprehensive reforms.

The policy expert also cautioned against putting greater pressure on existing taxpayers while failing to widen the tax net and tackle evasion.

She warned that excessive bank borrowing by the government could fuel inflation and crowd out private investment by pushing up lending rates.

Fahmida described inflation control as the budget’s foremost challenge, urging policymakers to focus spending on agriculture, energy, transport and logistics to ease supply constraints and boost production.

Sustainable growth, she said, will ultimately depend on better governance, stronger institutions, improved investment conditions and a stable law-and-order situation.

Azam J Chowdhury, chairman of East Coast Group, emphasised several longstanding concerns, including reforms to the Workers’ Profit Participation Fund (WPPF), removal of dividend double taxation, continuation of tax incentives for the ocean-going shipping industry, and simplification of land mutation procedures.

He called for a revision of the WPPF framework to ensure benefits reach workers as intended, while also addressing compliance challenges faced by listed companies.

Chowdhury emphasised the need for a more predictable tax regime and policy continuity to encourage private investment.

He also urged the government to go for administrative reforms, saying lengthy approval processes, particularly for land mutation and energy-sector investments, continue to deter businesses and delay new projects.

Shawkat Aziz Russel, president of the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA), said supporting existing factories to upgrade capital machinery would yield faster and greater returns than building new facilities from scratch.

Modern equipment could raise productivity by 30-40 percent on average and, in some cases, by as much as 300 percent, while reducing gas and electricity consumption by around 30 percent, he said.

He stressed that such assistance should be implemented without delay, warning that lengthy decision-making processes have weakened the sector’s competitiveness.

The BTMA chief also criticised the interim government’s handling of the industry, saying timely policy support could have prevented the closure of hundreds of spinning mills and garment factories.

Russel further expressed concern over rising extortion and deteriorating law and order, noting that creating jobs and sustaining industrial growth remain essential to addressing such problems.

Chaired by Doulat Akhtar Mala, president of ERF, the event was moderated by Abul Kashem Khan, general secretary of ERF.

Guyana was already the world's fastest-growing economy before the US-Israeli war on Iran drove up oil prices. Now, the tiny Caribbean nation of nearly 1 million people will reap an even bigger bonanza as the conflict reshapes global energy markets.

The war that caused one of the largest energy disruptions in history highlights the growing importance of countries including Guyana that offer political stability and geographically unrestricted access to their estimated 11 billion barrels of oil reserves. This growing windfall from crude brings pressure from business owners and locals on the government to use its billions of dollars to boost other parts of the economy.

"The world has seen too many energy booms that left behind ghost towns, depleted forests and bitter populations. Guyana will not be that story," President Irfaan Ali said in an address at Rice University's Baker Institute this month.

Rapid development by an Exxon Mobil-led oil consortium, which controls all of Guyana's oil production, grew output to more than 900,000 barrels per day in just seven years, a pace without recent precedent as offshore projects can typically take twice as long just to produce the first drop of oil. Guyana's GDP more than quadrupled to $27.5 billion between the time the taps started flowing in 2019 and 2024, according to World Bank data.

Guyana was previously one of the poorest countries in South America and oil-fuelled growth can be seen across the capital of Georgetown, where construction is taking place on new modern office buildings, upscale hotels and rows of single-family homes that resemble those that could be found in US suburbs. Exxon billboards and adverts for other petroleum companies play on the radio, serving as reminders of the industry that helped enable the growth.

More money, more problems?

The government's long-term challenge is to fortify the country against an implicit pitfall – the economic cycle of boom and bust oil prices. Guyana needs to look no further than its neighbour Venezuela for an example of how political dysfunction and overreliance on oil money can cripple an economy despite having one of the largest estimated oil reserves in the world. One of Guyana's strategies is its 2019 sovereign wealth fund holding all oil revenue, which allows the government to draw funds for development projects at a steady rate.

Crude prices, up 30% since the start of the Iran war in late February, could further swell Guyana's oil revenue. Assuming an oil price of $100 per barrel through the rest of the year at current production volumes, Guyana's share of oil revenue could be worth roughly $4.3 billion, 67% higher than last year, according to Reuters calculations.

More importantly, Guyana is poised to start receiving a significantly larger share of oil production earlier than expected. The Exxon consortium currently takes 75% of the oil to recoup its initial exploration and development costs. And now, the consortium could recover the costs this year, Exxon has said. When that happens, the country's share of the profit oil will climb from 12.5% to 50%.

Ali cautioned that expectations needed to be managed, as any windfall due to higher oil prices would be offset by higher import costs for nearly all goods including fuel and fertiliser.

"This is the complexity of the messaging when people wake up every morning and see the headlines that you're flush with money, it drives a certain expectation," he said in his Baker Institute address.

Some local infrastructure has not improved at the same pace that the oil industry has developed. Open sewage drains line the streets of Georgetown and electricity outages remain a common occurrence.

A changed world

Guyana sits at the centre of a region that includes the established oil and gas economies of Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago, as well as Suriname, where the sector is emerging. The area benefits from direct, unrestricted access to the Atlantic, without maritime chokepoints vulnerable to blockades like the Strait of Hormuz.

Guyana's low break-even prices in the $25 to $35 per barrel range, and proximity to US markets that are supportive of fossil fuel development, further compound long-term advantages, said Tarron Khemraj, a professor of economics and international studies at the New College of Florida, who has studied Caribbean countries including Guyana.

Spot prices for Guyana's four crude grades – valued for their light to medium sweet quality – have surged over the past three months, with the Liza benchmark reaching a high of $120 per barrel from $68.98 on 27 February before the conflict in the Middle East began.

Even if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes soon and oil prices return to pre-war levels, experts say Guyana's track record as a geopolitically stable source of oil will further solidify.

"The war may end next month, but it will be a changed world," Khemraj said.

Still, numbers that look like a boom may belie the full reality of the broader economy.

While Guyana has recorded double-digit percentage GDP growth each year since oil production began, most of that expansion has been concentrated in the petroleum sector, rather than broad-based activity. Oil and gas and support services accounted for more than 75% of the country's GDP last year, according to government data.

Sharing the wealth

As part of its effort to make sure more of the oil revenue trickles down, the government is also moving to expand its local content law, originally passed in 2021, that requires oil and gas firms to contract with Guyanese-owned suppliers and vendors in a number of specific areas, such as janitorial, food or transport.

The regulation requires petroleum companies to procure a certain percentage of services from Guyanese businesses, for example, 25% of medical services and 90% of catering services. The government is considering amendments to add more service areas and increase the percentage requirements for some existing ones, Michael Munroe, director of the local content secretariat, said in an interview.

Business owners say that expanding the requirements will help support more jobs and the development of skilled labour.

"We're able to provide all of the same medical services as an international company," said Ayesha Wilburg, founder and CEO of a Georgetown-based health clinic.

Rising oil activity has also led to a similar explosion in demand for private transport services in Georgetown, where residents often travel by cab.

Nazim Baksh, general manager of Sean's Transportation Services, said the company expanded from seven employees to about 20 and also upgraded its fleet from saloons to add more SUVs.

Challenges remain, however, including complaints from Guyanese business owners about so-called fronting. Panellists at the Guyana Energy Conference in February acknowledged the problem, where foreign companies use local entities but retain actual control of the business.

Vanita Ally, medical director and founder of Phoenix Clinicare, a Guyanese-owned medical centre, said that receiving a certificate to provide services to oil firms has not resulted in much additional revenue and inflation is also increasing her operating costs.

"International companies are benefiting a lot more than local people (from the oil industry)," Ally said.

Drivers are now paying more at the pump, like other countries, adding to cost-of-living concerns. Guyana lacks a refinery and must import petrol, diesel and other refined products.

"For Guyana, as a country that is now a net producer and exporter of energy, (higher oil prices) can mean positive things, but of course, that isn't necessarily what people see and feel every day because it means that energy prices are going up," said Alistair Routledge, president of Exxon's Guyana operations at a press conference in March.

"We recognise this is a mixed blessing for people in Guyana."

From Europe to Japan and Switzerland, huge bond issues by Big Tech companies are proving that smaller markets, often overshadowed by the US, can punch above their weight in the $40 trillion world of corporate debt.

Google-parent Alphabet is already one of the biggest outstanding borrowers in the sterling and Swiss franc corporate bond markets, while Amazon raised 14.5 billion euros ($16.88 billion) in March from an eight-part deal, the largest ever in the euro corporate bond market, according to LSEG.

Debt issues by so-called "hyperscalers" - or Big Tech companies - outside the United States are part of a push to diversify their funding early on, bankers said, as they look to finance trillions of dollars of investment in AI infrastructure, especially data centres, in the years ahead.

Raising debt in foreign currencies can also help the companies hedge the currency risk from their global assets, while taking advantage of relatively lower borrowing costs in places like Europe.

Alphabet smashed records across markets, with its yen, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and sterling deals all setting borrowing records in those currencies.

"If you look at the pace of investment of these companies and if you fast forward 12 months, some of these companies are already going to become among the biggest issuers globally in any currency," said Giulio Baratta, co-head of investment-grade finance at BNP Paribas.

In Europe, Alphabet and Amazon have helped push up borrowing by non-financial US firms to over 60 billion euros ($69.85 billion) this year, another record.

Record debt sales

Morgan Stanley expects around 50 billion euros of total borrowing from the hyperscalers in euro debt this year, which could help lead the US to overtake France as the euro zone's biggest source of overall corporate debt.

"A lot of these markets, including euro, have evolved and now offer a lot more depth and opportunity for larger capital raising than was historically the case," said John Servidea, global co-head of investment grade finance at JPMorgan, which led recent deals for the two hyperscalers.

With the hyperscaler deals, internationally placed non-financial corporate bond sales tracked by LSEG have surged in markets like the Swiss franc and yen this year.

The ability to raise significant amounts of money in such markets has not gone unnoticed by US companies beyond the hyperscalers, Servidea said.

"They're definitely looking at other markets more seriously than they would have previously."

More broadly, borrowing has also surged in currencies like the Australian and Hong Kong dollars as international companies diversify their funding sources.

Investors, meanwhile, have shifted focus to diversifying away from the US dollar given geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty.

Building exposure to AI

Hyperscalers have seen their non-dollar issuance double to 30% of their total bond funding this year, according to Bank of America.

Raising money abroad also means Big Tech can leave longer periods between tapping the US market, JPMorgan's Servidea said, while borrowing at rates that are in some cases cheaper than the US dollar market, or at least similar.

Heavy borrowing can weigh on a borrower's bonds, and analysts see signs that hyperscalers are underperforming the US corporate bond market. Visiting it less often may help limit the hit.

Baratta at BNP Paribas, which also led deals for Alphabet and Amazon, said these companies were mainly keeping the funds in the currency they are raising rather than swapping them back to dollars.

As for investors, they're keen to build exposure to the AI theme in international bond markets, where technology names previously had a limited presence.

Nicolas Forest, chief investment officer at Candriam, for example, is buying into the euro deals from hyperscalers to build exposure to the tech sector in the European bond market.

By the end of April, Alphabet had already become the fourth-largest borrower in ICE BofA's sterling corporate bond index after just one round of issuance, and the sixth-largest in Swiss francs.

As tech issuance grows, corporate bond markets outside the US will become more exposed to tech sector developments, in good and bad times.

"If there are any problems with (AI), it will probably create more volatility," said David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton.

Bangladesh is lagging behind neighbouring countries in buffalo milk production due to low productivity, poor breeding practices, and limited investment in the dairy sector.

Buffalo milk accounts for 65 percent of total milk production in Pakistan, 43 percent in India, 57 percent in Nepal, and only 5 percent in Bangladesh, according to data from the Department of Livestock Services (DLS).

Pakistan produces 60.01 million tonnes of milk, of which 39.80 million tonnes come from buffalo. In India, total milk production stands at 239.03 million tonnes, with 104 million tonnes from buffalo. Nepal produces 2.90 million tonnes, including 1.65 million tonnes from buffalo.

In Bangladesh, total milk production is 16.20 million tonnes, against an annual demand of 16.23 million tonnes, but only 0.08 million tonnes comes from buffalo.

Md Bayezur Rahman, director for administration at the DLS, told The Daily Star that Bangladesh lags behind mainly due to a smaller buffalo population and the lack of targeted development in the sector.

He said that in those countries, buffalo populations have historically been higher due to natural conditions, while in Bangladesh research is underway and a buffalo development project has already been initiated.

DLS data shows buffalo numbers in the country have been rising steadily. In fiscal year 2024–25, the figure stood at 15.32 lakh, up from 15.24 lakh the previous year and 14.16 lakh in FY23.

Gautam Kumar Deb, principal scientific officer and head of a division at the Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute (BLRI), said the low contribution of buffalo milk is rooted in the historical use of buffaloes as draft animals rather than dairy producers.

Unlike in India, Pakistan, and Nepal -- where buffaloes have long been bred for milk -- buffaloes in Bangladesh were primarily used for ploughing fields and pulling carts in low-lying areas, resulting in native breeds with low milk-yielding capacity.

He said the buffalo population declined by around 50 percent after independence as their role in agriculture diminished, though numbers have since stabilised and are gradually rising.

Buffaloes are mainly raised in char and coastal areas, where most farmers rely on natural grazing. In remote char areas, transporting milk to markets is difficult, making calf rearing and meat production a more profitable option for many farmers.

Deb said buffalo farming in Bangladesh remains at a stage comparable to where cattle farming was in the 1980s. The BLRI, DLS, and Bangladesh Milk Producers’ Co-operative Union Limited have been working to introduce high-yielding Indian buffalo breeds, with research populations already established. Improved animals are expected to reach farmers within one to two years.

A buffalo development project launched in July 2020 is nearing completion, with both infrastructure and research components more than 95 percent complete.

Jahangir Alam Khan, former director general of the BLRI and an agricultural economist, said buffaloes have historically received little attention in Bangladesh, where livestock development efforts largely focused on cows. He said continued government support could lead to significant progress over the next 15 to 20 years, and that expanding buffalo farming could help meet domestic demand and reduce reliance on imported buffalo meat.

At an event in Dhaka yesterday marking World Milk Day 2026, State Minister for Fisheries and Livestock Sultan Salauddin Tuku said Bangladesh must increase milk production to reduce import dependence.

He said the government would take measures to expand production capacity with a view to building future export potential in the dairy sector.

Prime Minister's Office (PMO) Spokesperson Mahdi Amin yesterday (1 June) said the government has made a limited adjustment to fuel prices in line with global market trends.

"As we do not produce fuel internally, we are fully dependent on imports. So, any global price increase directly affects us. The adjustment has been made in line with international market conditions, and the increase is limited," he said while speaking at a press conference at the PMO.

The press conference was held at the Karobi Hall of the Prime Minister's Office to brief the media on various public-oriented initiatives and programmes taken on the orders of the prime minister for smooth celebrations of Eid-ul-Adha.

Responding to a question, Mahdi Amin said Bangladesh delayed raising fuel prices longer than many other countries despite growing international pressure.

"Oil prices have increased across the world since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Many countries have already raised prices, while Bangladesh is among those that adjusted them relatively late," he said.

The PMO spokesperson said fuel prices in Bangladesh still remain lower compared to many neighbouring countries, helping the government keep inflation under control.

"Overall, as global oil supply and prices are changing, Bangladesh has made a limited price adjustment in line with international trends," he said.

Mahdi Amin said the latest adjustment was made considering global fuel supply conditions and rising international prices.

Replying to another question, Mahdi Amin said the government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, has been making every possible effort over the past three months to deliver what a truly accountable government can achieve.

Asked whether remarks made by State Minister for Primary and Mass Education Bobby Hajjaj regarding Dhaka University embarrassed the government following strong reactions from university teachers and students, he highlighted the historic role of Dhaka University and other public universities in the country's major democratic and political movements.

"The contribution of Dhaka University and other public universities is deeply embedded in Bangladesh's history – from the Language Movement and the 1969 Mass Uprising to the Liberation War, the anti-autocracy movement of 1990 and the July mass uprising," the PMO spokesperson said.

He said many individuals currently serving in important state positions emerged from Dhaka University and other public universities on the basis of merit and competence.

Mahdi Amin also noted that the country's private university sector began its journey during the government of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia in 1992 and has made significant progress over the years.

He said private universities also played an important role during the July movement, standing alongside public universities and people from all walks of life.

"We do not see Dhaka University, North South University or any other university separately. We believe all educational institutions complement one another rather than compete with each other," he said.

The PMO spokesperson said students frequently move between public and private universities for undergraduate and postgraduate studies, reflecting a shared national education system that helps produce skilled, capable and responsible citizens.

"As an elected government, we believe that what matters is not which university someone attended but their honesty, competence and merit," he said.

Mahdi Amin said the government wants to build a discrimination-free Bangladesh where talent and qualifications are properly recognised and where all universities receive policy support from the state.

Responding to a question regarding the buffalo named after US President Donald Trump, now kept at the National Zoo, he said the government's foremost responsibility is to maintain stability, law and order, and social harmony.

The PMO spokesperson said authorities wanted to avoid any situation that could trigger unnecessary controversy or create discomfort at home or abroad.

"A responsible and accountable government always seeks to move the country forward in a positive and festive environment where everyone can participate with goodwill and sincerity," he said.

Mahdi Amin described the handling of the matter as a prudent decision taken through government channels and later implemented as part of a state decision.