Bangladesh and other South Asian countries could face lower remittances from the Middle East as the ongoing conflict in the region weakens labour demand and squeezes migrant worker incomes, according to new research by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The report, released yesterday, estimates that the conflict could lower economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific by up to 1.3 percentage points over 2026-2027 and push inflation up by 3.2 percentage points if energy market disruptions persist beyond a year.

Nearly half of Bangladesh’s more than $30 billion in annual remittances come from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait together accounted for 86 percent of Bangladeshi migrant workers who secured jobs abroad in fiscal year 2024-25, according to the Bangladesh Economic Review 2025.

The disruption is already visible. Hundreds of Middle East-bound flights from Bangladesh have been cancelled since the escalation of the US-Israel war on Iran, mostly affecting migrant workers.

The ADB warned that a remittance shock could compound the effects of higher energy prices and tighter external financing conditions by simultaneously weakening foreign currency inflows and household demand.

“This channel is especially important because remittance dependence does not always align with exposure based on trade or energy indicators, and may therefore represent an additional source of macroeconomic vulnerability,” the report said.

The report said remittances to many Asian economies have historically exhibited countercyclical behaviour, often increasing and providing an important buffer during periods of stress.

“However, the current shock may differ, as it is centred in the Middle East -- a significant migration destination and source of remittances,” the report said, adding that economies in South Asia appear particularly exposed, with inflows from the Middle East exceeding 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in some cases.

The ADB brief said remittances from Middle Eastern economies accounted for 8.1 percent of Nepal’s GDP, 5.6 percent of Pakistan’s GDP, and 2.9 percent of Sri Lanka’s GDP in 2021.

For Bangladesh, remittances accounted for 2.8 percent of its GDP, according to estimates from five years ago.

The ADB also warned that higher energy prices could fuel inflation across the region, with the largest impact in South Asian economies.

The conflict affects economies in Asia and the Pacific through higher energy prices, supply chain and trade disruptions, and tighter financial conditions. Tourism and remittances could also be impacted, the Manila-based multilateral lender said.

“Higher oil and gas prices feed into energy and producer prices, with pass-through also determined by each economy’s dependence on imported energy and the degree of domestic energy price regulation. Because the shocks are assumed to be temporary, inflation moderates in 2027 as energy prices normalise,” it said.

Bangladesh today sought the European Union's (EU) support for deferring its graduation from the group of least developed countries (LDCs).

Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir raised the issue at a bilateral meeting with Maros Sefcovic, EU Trade Commissioner, on the sidelines of the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference in Yaounde, Cameroon.

"We have sought EU support for the deferment as we need it," Muktadir told The Daily Star after the meeting.

Bangladesh will need backing from a majority of UN member countries at the upcoming General Assembly in September in New York to secure a three-year deferment.

"We are hopeful that not only the EU but other countries will support us for the deferment," the minister said.

Last month, the UN Committee for Development Policy (CDP) initiated a process to assess Bangladesh's request to defer its LDC graduation, currently slated for later this year, to 2029. If not resolved through discussion, the plea will be put to a vote at the UN General Assembly.

The minister also urged the EU trade commissioner to begin negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA), following a proposal Bangladesh submitted to the EU several months ago.

According to Muktadir, the EU commissioner raised questions about labour conditions, to which the minister replied that Bangladesh had already amended its labour law in line with International Labour Organisation (ILO) recommendations.

The minister further called for expanding bilateral trade between Bangladesh and the 27-nation EU bloc. Currently, Bangladesh exports goods worth over $25 billion annually to the EU, predominantly garments, while importing around $6 billion in return.

Bangladesh is seeking the deferment amid concerns from the business community that it is unprepared to face the challenges of graduation. Immediate graduation could trigger significant export loss due to the withdrawal of preferential trade benefits.

Bangladesh has emphasised the need to reform the World Trade Organization (WTO), while cautioning that any such changes must not undermine the body’s fundamental principles.

Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir made the call at the beginning of the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference on March 26 in Yaounde, Cameroon.

The call came as the multilateral trading arrangement faces challenges due to protectionism, particularly the unilateral imposition of tariffs by countries, such as the recent reciprocal tariff slapped by the USA on many nations.

The consensus-based, rules-based multilateral trading arrangement, anchored in non-discrimination and inclusivity, has benefited both developed and developing nations, including Least Developed Countries (LDCs), he said.

He highlighted key mechanisms underpinning the system, including most-favoured-nation (MFN) treatment, duty-free quota-free market access, and special and differential treatment (S&DT) for developing countries and LDCs.

While reform is essential, it should not come at the cost of distorting its fundamental principles, he said.

Speaking to The Daily Star at the sidelines of the conference, Muktadir said the WTO’s rules-based framework has played a key role in reducing global poverty over the past three decades.

The time and effort invested by nations in creating the current framework should not be wasted in the name of reform, he said.

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, who is also attending the conference, said the dispute settlement mechanism, often described as the “jewel in the crown” of the WTO, has become almost non-functional due to this prolonged deadlock.

Rahman underlined the need to prioritise fixing tariff rates on an MFN basis.

He said that in recent years, developed countries like the US have been fixing tariffs unilaterally above MFN rates under the guise of reciprocal tariffs, causing many countries to lose their competitive edge.

For instance, he said, if Bangladesh applies the American reciprocal tariff formula to reduce its trade deficit with China and India, the rate of import tax could reach as much as 48 percent on imports from China and 42 percent on those from India.

Similarly, Bangladesh could face much higher tariffs from the European Union if reciprocal measures were applied, given its annual exports of over $25 billion to the bloc compared to imports of $6 billion.

Separately, Sheikh Hossain Muhammad Mustafiz, a director of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, warned of a future cotton supply squeeze.

He said that four African nations, including Benin, plan to invest significantly in utilising their own cotton for domestic textile production by 2040. African countries have become key sourcing destinations as Bangladesh seeks to reduce its over-dependence on India.

Meanwhile, Aissatou Diallo, executive director of the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF), Executive Secretariat at the WTO, advised Bangladesh to improve its investment climate and diversify exports ahead of its graduation to a developing nation this November.

She said the EIF would continue providing technical and financial support for five years to enhance the competitiveness of Bangladeshi entrepreneurs.

The government is preparing a revised priority list for foreign-funded projects currently under review in the pipeline to align them with the new administration's election manifesto, according to officials at the Economic Relations Division (ERD).

Since the BNP government assumed office on 17 February, it has placed the highest priority on fulfilling its electoral pledges, already introducing Family Cards and waiving farm loans up to Tk10,000. Its development priorities will be reflected in the annual development programme of the next fiscal year's budget, the first for the new government.

ERD officials say the government will ensure foreign financing alongside allocations from public funds to support the priority projects. As part of this process, foreign-funded projects currently in the pipeline are being reviewed and various ministries have already started their groundwork under guidance from the finance ministry.

ERD figures updated till January show that $2.27 billion in project loan agreements were signed during the first seven months of the current fiscal year.

Over the last few years, Bangladesh has typically signed $9 billion to $10 billion in annual loan agreements to fund its priority development agenda.

But fewer loan projects were signed during the interim government's 18-month term before the February elections, as the administration then preferred mitigating foreign debt risks to signing new projects.

After the new government took office in February, the ERD has begun drafting a revised priority list for the final quarter of this year and the upcoming fiscal year starting in July, aligning to the ruling party's election manifesto.

As of January, loan proposals for projects in the pipeline stood over $46.6 billion, including $18.7 billion from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), $1.8 billion from the World Bank, $15.2 billion from South Korea, $3.8 billion from China, and $911 million from Japan.

Also, there are proposals from Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), New Development Bank (NDB) and European countries.

Shifting priorities

"The projects currently in the pipeline are undergoing a fresh re-evaluation," said an ERD senior official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Projects are routinely listed in the borrowing programme pipeline after extensive discussions with development partners. From this list, the government signs loan agreements for priority projects each year, the official explained.

ERD officials suggest the new government may drop some projects from the previous era's pipeline, though widespread cancellations are not expected. Since many projects form part of essential sectoral plans – such as the ADB-backed SASEC Dhirasram Inland Container Depot (ICD) – they are likely to be retained.

Major projects in focus

The World Bank's pipeline under the ERD includes six projects, with the Health, Nutrition and Population Sector Development Programme listed among "highly probable" projects.

ERD data shows that the borrowing programme for the current financial year features 43 South Korean-funded projects, including high-impact infrastructure projects such as the Meghna Bridge on the Shariatpur-Chandpur Road, a railway link to the Bay Terminal of Chattogram Port at Patenga, MRT Line-4 and the MRT Line-5 Southern Route in partnership with the ADB.

According to ERD data, there are nine Chinese projects currently in the pipeline, including conversion of Akhaura-Sylhet railway to dual gauge, expansion of the Joydebpur-Mymensingh-Jamalpur rail corridor, modernisation of Mongla Port and the development of the Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone in Chattogram.

Beyond the major lenders, the AIIB maintains a significant presence with $3.543 billion in proposals across 15 projects, while the NDB accounts for $1.06 billion through six initiatives.

For the current financial year, five projects were also slated for loan agreements with Japanese financing, involving a total proposed credit of $911 million.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at World Bank's Dhaka office, told TBS that the government must evaluate which sectors should be prioritised and which specific projects within those sectors are the most urgent.

He said in the context of the current global crisis – marked by war, fuel shortages, and supply chain uncertainties – the primary objective must be to maintain economic stability. "Consequently, projects related to food security and energy security should receive the highest priority."

"Furthermore, improving the efficiency of port systems is of critical importance. For sustainable growth, developments in education, healthcare, and technical skills remain indispensable," he stressed.

M Masrur Reaz, chairman of the private research organisation Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB), said it is natural for the current government to have its own development and project financing strategies.

While reprioritisation is expected, previous projects, which are vital for economic growth, human resource development, should not be outright dropped from the priority list, he cautioned.

Establishing priorities is not enough, the PEB chairman said. "Financing must be sound, and negotiations with development partners must put the country's interests first. Moreover, we must urgently improve our capacity to actually implement these projects."

Bangladesh is facing intensifying energy-related risks with limited policy flexibility, as global supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions constrain its ability to manage shocks, according to a recent report by S&P Global Ratings.

The report by the American credit rating agency highlights that countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka -- despite showing some signs of macroeconomic recovery -- remain at “greater risk” due to their heavy reliance on imported fuel and weaker external positions.

“These countries are particularly vulnerable to rising oil prices and potential supply disruptions,” states the report published last week.

Bangladesh faces mounting growth, inflation, and external risks if the spike in energy prices endures longer than currently anticipated, it adds.

The duration of the US-Israel war on Iran and the associated price shock, as well as the physical availability of fuel supplies, will be key determinants of the impact on the sovereign’s creditworthiness, the report notes.

Higher fuel prices are likely to stall the gradual decline in inflation over the next three to six months and could weigh on recovery momentum.

Nearly 50 percent of Bangladesh’s electricity generation is gas-fired, and almost a quarter of its gas needs are met through imports.

Meanwhile, the economy is almost entirely reliant on imports for crude and refined oil products.

Oil supply reserves are likely to last less than one month, after which measures to curb consumption may become more pronounced if imports remain constrained.

While the government and national energy companies have recently secured additional supplies of gas, diesel, and petrol, availability could become scarcer if the conflict continues.

Officials have moved quickly to implement measures aimed at offsetting the impact of higher fuel prices.

These include a cap on retail fuel prices, a temporary rationing mechanism, cuts to operations at fertiliser plants to prioritise gas supply to power plants, and early school closures to manage energy consumption.

The country is already grappling with stubbornly high inflation, which rose to 9.2 percent in February from 8.6 percent in January, and an extended moderation in growth following the collapse of the Awami League-led government in mid-2024.

The war will also be an unwelcome headwind against Bangladesh’s improving external position, notes S&P Global.

It explains that the accumulation of a more meaningful foreign exchange buffer and the current account’s modest surplus so far this fiscal year will help alleviate immediate stresses that could arise from a period of acutely high energy prices.

In addition, lower remittances would have the dual effect of tilting external flows unfavourably and reducing domestic private consumption momentum.

In that event, further delays to Bangladesh’s economic recovery could lead to a significant erosion of the country’s long-term growth rate or a deterioration in its external position, such that net external debt surpasses 100 percent of current account receipts on a sustained basis, the agency warns.

S&P Global notes that Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh are showing signs of economic recovery. The three countries have made progress, but sustained high energy prices and potential disruptions to trade and remittances could derail their fragile economies.

However, it states that Bangladesh—with government revenues at only around 9 percent of GDP—has fewer options to cap electricity and fuel prices through fiscal means.

Laos is comparatively less exposed due to its hydropower-based electricity generation and balanced fiscal position.

All four governments are likely to see significant deterioration in credit metrics—through inflation and currency channels—if the Middle East conflict is prolonged, according to the report.

However, the impact on ratings may be limited, as the generally low rating levels have already captured a significant share of the risks.

Bangladesh’s long-term rating stands at B+, with a stable short-term outlook. The B+ rating reflects the economy’s modest per capita income and limited fiscal flexibility, owing to a combination of low revenue-generation capacity and the government’s high interest burden.

S&P Global concludes, “Our ratings on Bangladesh can likely withstand the shorter-term economic disruptions associated with our base case scenario.”

Nearly a decade after the Bangladesh Bank (BB) reserve heist stunned the world, investigators say they have identified 65 to 70 suspects across seven countries and are now preparing to submit the charge sheet soon.

Among those implicated are about 10 officials of the central bank, according to the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) under Bangladesh Police.

“The long-running probe is now in its final stage,” Al Mamun, the investigation officer and an additional superintendent of police, told The Daily Star.

“We are now preparing the draft charge sheet and hope to submit it soon,” he said.

The development comes after years of delays. Over the past 10 years, the investigation officer has been changed four times, and the submission of the probe report has been deferred more than 86 times.

On February 4, 2016, hackers broke into the BB’s systems and issued 70 fake payment instructions to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, seeking to withdraw nearly $1.94 billion.

Most of the transactions were blocked by the Fed’s security system. But five slipped through, resulting in the release of $101 million.

Of that amount, $81 million was transferred to accounts at Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation in the Philippines. Another $20 million was sent to Sri Lanka, but was recovered after a spelling error in the transfer request raised red flags.

On March 15, 2016, a case was filed by then BB Deputy Director Zobayer Bin Huda with Motijheel Police Station. The investigation was later handed over to the CID.

So far, Bangladesh has recovered $14.66 million from the Philippines.

On condition of anonymity, a senior CID official said the recovery process has proved complex because the funds were not returned through the same banking channels used for the transfers, complicating legal proceedings.

INTERNATIONAL TRAIL, NEW LEADS

Investigators say the probe gained pace last year after authorities received a report from a US intelligence agency through the Mutual Legal Assistance Request (MLAR) process.

The information helped identify several foreign suspects.

“Without getting information from those countries, it was not possible to complete the investigation properly. Due to delays in receiving responses to the MLAR requests, the investigation took longer,” said Additional SP Mamun.

CID officials say they have gathered information from authorities in China and the Philippines as well.

On September 18 last year, a Dhaka court ordered the seizure of funds from Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation as part of the ongoing investigation.

Investigators said they have traced the laundering of the stolen funds across the Philippines, Japan, North Korea, Sri Lanka, India and China.

They say around 30 individuals and seven companies in the Philippines were linked to the laundering process.

According to investigators, Philippine businessman Kam Sin Wong has been identified as a central figure in the network. Wong allegedly hired North Korean hacker Park Jin Hyok, believed to be associated with the state-backed Lazarus Group, also known as APT38.

The hackers allegedly sent malware-infected links to BB officials by email, gaining access to internal systems and initiating fraudulent SWIFT transactions.

Funds were routed through several intermediaries before being channelled into casinos, including Solaire Resort and Casino and Midas Hotel and Casino. Other entities identified in the laundering chain include Philrem Service Corporation, Centurytex Trading, ABBA Currency Exchange Inc and Beacon Currency Exchange Inc.

In Sri Lanka, investigators traced the attempted $20 million transfer to an account at Pan Asia Bank in Colombo belonging to the Shalika Foundation, led by Hegoda Gamage Shalika Perera.

The transaction failed after the word “foundation” was misspelt, alerting authorities and preventing the funds from being withdrawn.

CID officials say eight individuals and institutions in Sri Lanka have been linked to that attempted transfer.

SCRUTINY OF CENTRAL BANK LAPSES

Investigators are also examining possible lapses within the central bank.

They are reviewing why the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system was connected directly to the SWIFT network without adequate risk assessment.

They are also looking into the approval process that allowed the SWIFT server used to manage foreign reserves to be linked with the RTGS system under the then-governor Atiur Rahman.

Some BB officials allegedly downloaded malware-infected files without verifying their source, while others are suspected of removing technical evidence after the breach came to light.

CID officials say these issues will be detailed in the charge sheet.

Akij Food & Beverage Limited, one of the largest beverage conglomerates in Bangladesh, has secured approval from the stock market regulator to issue a Tk500-crore zero-coupon bond, aiming to repay existing loans and diversify its funding sources.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission approved the move at a commission meeting held today (25 March) at its headquarters, allowing Akij Food to raise funds through the bond at face value.

According to a press release of the commission, the bond will be unsecured, non-convertible, and fully redeemable, with a tenure ranging from six months to a maximum of five years.

Given the nature of a zero-coupon bond, Akij Food & Beverage will raise approximately Tk388 crore from the capital market and use the entire amount to repay existing loans. However, the company will repay Tk500 crore to investors upon maturity, according to sources involved in the bond issuance.

The bond will be issued through private placement to banks, non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), insurers, institutional investors, and high-net-worth individuals. The face value of each unit of the bond is Tk10 lakh.

Sena Insurance PLC will act as the trustee, while North Star Investment (BD) Limited will serve as the fund arranger.

According to its website, Akij Food began its journey in 2006 and has since become the largest beverage conglomerate in Bangladesh. It is also the highest taxpayer in the country's beverage sector.

The company offers a diverse range of products, including carbonated soft drinks, mineral water, fruit juices, snacks, and dairy products. Its portfolio includes several leading brands such as Mojo, one of the highest-selling cola brands; Frutika, one of the most popular juice drink brands; and Speed, one of the top carbonated beverage brands in terms of both value and volume across all CSD categories.

Despite its strong and stable market position, Akij Food has so far remained absent from the capital market for long-term fundraising, as its solid reputation has enabled it to secure bank financing with ease.

After repeated efforts, capital market intermediaries have finally facilitated the company's entry into the market through this bond issuance.

Sources said that over the past five years, Akij Food's business has grown rapidly amid rising demand. In the 2024-25 fiscal year, its gross profit exceeded Tk400 crore, while its operating profit stood at over Tk200 crore as of June 2025, according to data seen by The Business Standard.

In comparison, in FY21, the company recorded a gross profit of around Tk200 crore and an operating profit of Tk60 crore.

An official from the fund arranger, speaking on condition of anonymity, told this newspaper, "The business size and market presence of Akij Food are significant, and it continues to grow steadily. However, the company has been reluctant to raise funds from the capital market, as it can easily obtain bank loans to run its operations and expand capacity."

According to its website, the company exports its products to more than 47 countries across Asia and Africa, including Malaysia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Singapore, India, Sri Lanka, South Africa, Senegal, Somalia, and Canada.

Struggling Z-category companies, especially leasing firms and a few manufacturing entities, led the top gainers' chart on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) during the first trading week after Eid, which saw only two sessions.

Market insiders said the sharp rises were largely driven by short-term investor interest and speculative trading. Despite ongoing economic uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict, some investors showed renewed appetite for weak, closed, and Z-category stocks.

A weekly market review showed that International Leasing & Financial Services, Peoples Leasing & Financial Services, FAS Finance & Investment, and Fareast Finance & Investment each posted a 50% gain. However, their share prices remained low, between Tk3.30 and Tk3.60.

Analysts noted that these financial institutions have long faced losses, high non-performing loans, and capital shortages. "The price spikes do not reflect any improvement in fundamentals but rather a tendency among investors to chase quick gains in low-priced stocks," one observer said.

Premier Leasing & Finance also rose sharply, climbing 42.31% to close at Tk3.70. Analysts believe the simultaneous gains across multiple companies in the same sector point to coordinated buying pressure.

Outside the financial sector, two Z-category textile and manufacturing firms featured among the gainers. Familytex (BD) advanced 27.59%, while HR Textile rose 25% to Tk22. In the food and consumer segment, Meghna Condensed Milk gained 23.61% to Tk35.60, and Meghna PET Industries increased 22.92% to Tk29.50. Prime Finance & Investment climbed 17.39% to Tk5.40, though its rise was also attributed to short-term trading trends rather than any fundamental improvement.

Market analysts said the dominance of financially weak companies reflects structural weaknesses. "When fundamentally weak companies top the gainers' chart, it indicates that investor confidence has not yet fully shifted toward strong, fundamentally sound stocks," one analyst noted.

Meanwhile, the broader market showed signs of recovery. After suffering the steepest single-day fall in six years early in the week, the market rebounded as investors returned to buy stocks at lower prices.

Gradual easing of concerns over the Middle East conflict and domestic fuel supply, coupled with improving investor sentiment, contributed to rising buying pressure and helped market indices recover by week's end

Stocks rebounded today (25 March) at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), with the benchmark index recovering from the previous session's sharp decline as late-session buying revived investor interest despite lingering global uncertainties.

The benchmark DSEX index gained 31 points, or 0.59%, to close at 5,316, reversing part of Tuesday's (24 March) losses.

The blue-chip DS30 index also edged higher, rising 8 points or 0.41% to settle at 2,019. Market breadth turned positive, with 241 issues advancing against 102 decliners, while 47 stocks remained unchanged.

Turnover on the premier bourse rose significantly, increasing by 23% to Tk604 crore, indicating improved participation compared to the previous session.

However, market sentiment remained cautious as investors continued to weigh the implications of the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Market analysts believe that while the day's recovery is a positive signal, the overall outlook remains uncertain.

Continued volatility in global energy markets and geopolitical developments are likely to keep investors cautious in the near term, with market direction depending on both external factors and domestic economic stability.

According to EBL Securities, the market regained some recovery momentum following the earlier selloff, supported by bargain hunting in the final trading hour.

For most of the session, indices moved sideways as both buyers and sellers remained active, reflecting uncertainty among investors.

The brokerage noted that renewed buying interest toward the close helped drive a broad-based price recovery.

Several heavyweight stocks played a key role in pulling the indices upward. Major contributors included BRAC Bank, Square Pharmaceuticals, British American Tobacco Bangladesh, Pubali Bank PLC, and Eastern Bank PLC.

On the sectoral front, engineering stocks dominated trading activity, accounting for 13.6% of total turnover, followed by pharmaceuticals at 12.7% and banking at 11.1%. Among individual stocks, ACME Pesticides Limited led the turnover chart, alongside Orion Infusion Limited, Sunlife Insurance Company Limited, and Lovello Ice-cream PLC.

Most sectors posted gains during the session, reflecting a broad-based recovery.

Mutual funds emerged as the top-performing sector with a 3.7% return, followed by general insurance at 3.1% and life insurance at 2.8%.

However, some sectors remained under pressure, with services declining by 1.0%, telecommunications by 0.7%, and cement by 0.2%.

Top gainers of the day included several mutual funds and manufacturing companies, while losses were concentrated among textile and smaller-cap stocks, indicating selective profit-taking in certain segments.

Meanwhile, the Chittagong Stock Exchange presented a mixed picture.

The CSCX index fell by 16 points to 9,101, while the CASPI index declined by 39 points to 14,914. However, turnover at the port city bourse increased by 6% to Tk20 crore.

The Ministry of Health has instructed the country's pharmaceutical industry to explore alternative sources for importing raw materials to ensure uninterrupted medicine supply amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East and global uncertainties.

The directive was issued as part of precautionary measures to prevent disruptions in drug production due to potential supply chain shocks triggered by geopolitical instability, according to officials concerned.

The government has particularly urged the Bangladesh Association of Pharmaceutical Industries to reduce overreliance on a single region, especially China and India, for importing Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), and instead identify other potential sourcing countries.

The decision came at an emergency meeting titled "Preparedness for potential health risks due to the ongoing war in the Middle East," held at the health ministry today (28 March). The meeting was chaired by Health and Family Welfare Minister Sardar Md Sakhawat Husain.

Officials at the meeting noted that the conflict in the Middle East could disrupt global supply chains, posing risks to the country's pharmaceutical production and distribution systems.

In this context, stakeholders were asked to take immediate and effective measures, including identifying alternative sources for API imports, as part of advanced preparedness to face any potential crisis.

The pharmaceutical industry body has also been requested to regularly update the Directorate General of Drug Administration (DGDA) on the progress of steps taken in this regard.

The share of defaulted loans in the banking sector for loans has risen to over 31% in the past year.

The central bank published a banking "update" report this month, which shows that by the end of the December quarter, the default rate for loans stood at 31.20%, up from 19.90% during the same period the previous year.

In monetary terms, a 31.20% default rate for such large loans amounts to Tk5,54,486 crore.

According to data from Bangladesh Bank, the increase is largely due to the adoption of international standards for loan classification starting in 2025. Under the revised rules, loans not repaid within a specified period are considered overdue, and if unpaid for more than 90 days, they are classified as defaulted, down from the previous threshold of 180 days. This stricter 90-day rule has contributed to the rise in defaulted loans.

A senior central bank official said that counting loans as defaulted after 90 days has increased the volume of non-performing loans since last year. However, due to various policy support measures introduced by Bangladesh Bank toward the end of 2025, the level of defaulted loans declined slightly in the December quarter compared to September.

One such measure allows banks to write off bad loans earlier. Previously, loans could only be written off after remaining classified as bad for two consecutive years. Under the new framework, write-offs can occur sooner.

Bangladesh Bank data shows that the default rate for loans stood at 36.30% at the end of September.

Another senior official noted that many institutions have restructured their defaulted loans following policy support from the central bank. As a result, a significant amount has been removed from the default list; otherwise, the December figure would have been even higher.

Bankers say the rise in defaulted loans over the past one and a half years reflects the exposure of previously hidden bad loans. The practice of showing loans as regular without actual repayment is no longer allowed.

They also noted that foreign audit firms have reviewed loan portfolios of several banks. In particular, the five Islamic banks undergoing consolidation – now merged into a single entity – have seen a sharp increase in defaulted loans.

According to bankers, the current situation reflects years of irregularities, fraud, and corruption in the banking sector during the Awami League government's 15-and-a-half-year tenure. Major groups such as S Alam Group, Beximco Group, Nasa Group, Bismillah Group, and Hall-Mark Group, along with scandals involving BASIC Bank, have contributed to the rise in defaulted loans.

Islamic banks have been the most affected, though several conventional banks have also experienced major loan irregularities.

The government is arranging fuel supply from multiple sources, despite the immense pressure on the economy due to global conflicts and the energy crisis, Prime Minister's Adviser on Finance and Planning Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said today (24 March).

"Whether it is from North America or Africa, fuel supply will be ensured. Financing for this has already been secured. We are fully committed to keeping gas and electricity supply uninterrupted," he said while responding to questions from journalists at the Deputy Commissioner's conference hall.

Earlier, he visited various industrial areas, including the BSCIC industrial towns in Kurigram and Lalmonirhat, to review long-standing development disparities in the northern region and promote industrial growth.

Discussing the government's plans to revive the northern economy, Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said, "We have already identified potential sectors for industrialisation. There is great scope for agro-based industries here. Industries can be developed for potatoes, corn, tomatoes, and dairy products from livestock. Using abundant natural resources in the region, especially gravel from rivers, glass factories can also be established."

He added, "In the past, the state never paid attention to this region. However, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has explicitly mentioned balanced regional development in her manifesto.

"Ensuring agro-based industrialisation here will generate significant employment and revive the local economy."

Bangladesh expects to receive a combined $1.3 billion instalment from the International Monetary Fund by July, merging a delayed December tranche with the next scheduled disbursement under its $5.5 billion loan programme, the finance minister said.

A final round of discussions is set to take place on the sidelines of the IMF's Spring Meetings in Washington in April, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury told reporters on Tuesday (24 March).

His remarks followed a meeting between Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and Krishna Srinivasan, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department.

"We discussed the IMF loan disbursement. The review for the $1.3 billion tranche will take place in July. In the meantime, we will prepare the national budget," said the minister, who attended the meeting.

He added that the government had also sought additional financing for fuel imports, an issue expected to feature prominently in the upcoming Spring Meetings.

Bangladesh has been under an IMF programme for several years, which is now under review, the minister said, adding that discussions on reform conditions are ongoing. However, he cautioned that not all conditions can be implemented immediately. "We have to consider what is feasible in the current economic context and implement the remaining conditions gradually."

He also pointed to rising global uncertainty stemming from tensions involving Iran, the United States and Israel, warning that Bangladesh faces similar external pressures.

Srinivasan said discussions had covered the ongoing programme, with further engagement planned ahead of the next review.

The meeting was held at the Bangladesh Secretariat, according to the Prime Minister's Office.

Central bank engagement and next steps

Bangladesh Bank Governor Mostaqur Rahman also held a courtesy meeting with IMF officials.

Following the Spring Meetings, an IMF mission is expected to visit Dhaka to conduct the programme review, a senior central bank official said. Its findings will be submitted to the IMF Executive Board.

Talks are likely to focus on the policy rate, exchange rate stability and banking sector conditions, another official added.

Bangladesh secured a $4.7 billion IMF package in January 2023 amid pressures triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. The programme was later expanded to $5.5 billion in June last year with an additional $800 million.

So far, the country has received $3.64 billion across four tranches. A scheduled disbursement last December was withheld pending engagement with an elected government.

Dhaka seeks additional $2bn for energy

Amid rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions, Bangladesh has sought an additional $2 billion in financing from the IMF, the World Bank and other development partners to support fuel imports.

Prime Minister's adviser Rashed Al Titumir recently said there were "positive indications" that multilateral lenders would step in to support the energy sector and bolster growth.

Officials said securing the next IMF tranche remains a priority in the near term.

In a 23 February letter, the Economic Relations Division said the IMF planned to meet the prime minister to assess reform progress and reaffirm cooperation with the new government.

However, key conditions remain unmet, including revenue mobilisation targets, restructuring of the National Board of Revenue, strengthening central bank independence and full adoption of a market-based exchange rate, according to finance ministry officials.

Reforms, fiscal pressures and public appeal

The finance minister said the government had inherited a fragile economy and a weak banking system, underscoring the need for gradual but sustained reforms.

"The banking sector and capital market remain weak, while the tax-to-GDP ratio is very low. These issues can be addressed through step-by-step reforms," he said.

The government has begun expanding social safety nets, including family support programmes and agricultural loan relief, while stalled development projects are being revived.

Improving the ease of doing business and reducing costs through deregulation will be key priorities in the upcoming budget, he added.

Amid concerns over fuel supply, the minister urged restraint in consumption. "The government alone cannot manage this crisis. People must be cooperative."

Despite global energy pressures, he said transport and the garments sector remained stable during Ramadan and Eid. "Together, we will overcome this crisis."

Oil prices rose on Tuesday on ​supply fear, as Iran denied it had talks with the United States to end the war in the ‌Gulf, contradicting US President Donald Trump who said a deal could be reached soon.

Brent futures rose $4, or 4%, to $103.94 a barrel at 0400 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $3.49, or 4%, to $91.62.

Crude futures dropped more than 10% on Monday, after Trump ordered a five-day delay to ​attacks on Iran's power plants, saying the US had talks with unnamed Iranian officials that produced "major points of ​agreement".

"By shelving the plan to strike Iranian power plants for five days, the US effectively sucked ⁠much of the 'war premium' from the oil price," said KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer.

"Today's moderate bounce is ​just the market finding its footing in the mud. Traders are aware that while the missiles are on hold, the Strait ​of Hormuz is still far from a clear waterway."

The war has all but halted shipments of about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz. However, two tankers bound for India sailed through the strait on Monday.

Tehran rejected the claim of contact ​with Washington, dismissing it as an attempt to manipulate financial markets, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had attacked US ​targets and denounced Trump's comments as "worn-out psychological operations".

"Even with a possible decrease in tensions after (Monday's) announcement from President Trump, we expect a ‌price floor ⁠of $85–$90 and a natural drift back to the $110 range until the Strait of Hormuz is restored," Macquarie said in a client note.

If the strait remains effectively shut until the end of April, Brent could still reach $150 a barrel, Macquarie said.

In the latest attacks on energy infrastructure across the region, a gas company office and a pressure-reduction station were hit in the ​Iranian city of Isfahan, while ​a projectile struck a gas ⁠pipeline feeding a power station in Khorramshahr, Iran's Fars news agency reported.

To ease supply shortage, the US temporarily waived sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil already at sea. Industry sources said ​traders have since offered Iranian crude to Indian refiners at a premium to ICE Brent.

The ​International Energy Agency ⁠Executive Director Fatih Birol on Monday said the agency is consulting Asian and European governments on possible further releases of strategic reserves "if necessary".

Still, markets are bracing for market disruption at least until April, which continue to be a tailwind beneath Brent while maintaining ⁠momentum for ​inflation, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova.

Oil executives ​and energy ministers at a conference in Houston flagged the longer-term impact of the US–Israel war with Iran on the global economy. US Energy Secretary Chris ​Wright downplayed the crisis.

The Indian rupee is poised to rise at the open on Tuesday, boosted by the dip in oil prices after US President Donald Trump hinted at talks about a resolution with Iran, although Tehran's denial of any talks kept uncertainty high.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 93.50 to 93.60 range versus the US dollar, after settling at 93.9750 in the previous session, when it hit an all-time low of 93.98.

Brent crude dropped 11% on Monday after Trump said he had ordered a delay to attacks on Iran's power plants, adding the US had held productive talks with unnamed Iranian officials. US equities advanced, the dollar dropped and US Treasury yields declined.

Part of these moves reversed in Asian trading, with Brent recovering nearly 4%. Asian equities rose, though they were well off their highs.

Iran's denial of talks with the US, coupled with a Wall Street Journal report that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are inching towards joining the fight against Tehran dented the positive sentiment triggered by Trump's remarks.

"From Asia's perspective, what matters is the physical flow of barrels (via the Strait of Hormuz), and over here time is of essence," MUFG Bank said in a note.

The 1-month USD/INR had dropped to a low of 93.35 immediately after Trump's remarks, which would have meant that the rupee would have risen past the 93 handle. However, with oil prices marching higher, the 93 level looks "out of the question", a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.

"Basically all markets are chasing headlines and looking at oil," he said. The rupee is at levels "which look really attractive, however you just do not know how Iran situation will play out and that keeps conviction low".

Indian equities were poised to open higher, according to futures, though they too were well off the highs seen after Trump's remarks.

Stocks opened on a negative note today (24 March) after a five-day Eid holiday, as investor sentiment remained cautious amid macroeconomic concerns.

In early trading up to 10:20am, the benchmark DSEX index fell 59 points to 5,294, while the blue-chip DS30 index dropped 29 points to 2,021.

Market breadth was broadly negative, with 247 issues declining, 48 advancing and 56 remaining unchanged.

Market insiders attributed the downturn to mounting concerns over inflationary pressures. Fears of potential fuel price hikes and supply disruptions, linked to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, have further dampened investor confidence.

Global brewers operating in India ​are warning of price increases and supply disruptions as a shortage of gas due to the Iran war ‌drives up the cost of glass bottles and shipping delays hit imports of aluminium needed by can makers.

India is especially vulnerable to fuel availability as the world's fourth-largest importer of natural gas, relying heavily on the Middle East for shipments, sourcing about 40% of its supply from Qatar.

Iranian attacks have partially disrupted Qatar's export capacity, tightening ​gas availability for Indian manufacturers.

The Brewers Association of India, representing global brewers Heineken, Anheuser-Busch InBev and Carlsberg told Reuters that ​glass bottle prices have surged around 20%, paper carton rates have doubled as well as other packaging materials ⁠such as labels and tape.

Gas is essential to keeping furnaces and production lines running, and shortages have forced several glass bottle makers ​to partially or fully halt operations. Aluminium can suppliers have also warned of possible reductions just as India heads into its peak summer ​season, when beer sales typically rise.

"We are asking for price increases in the range of 12-15%," the association's director general Vinod Giri told Reuters. "We have advised our member companies to individually approach states."

The rising cost of production is making some operations unsustainable, he added.

Heineken's India unit United Breweries, Anheuser-Busch InBev and Carlsberg ​did not respond to Reuters queries.

The market was worth $7.8 billion in 2024, and is expected to double by 2030, Grand View Research says. ​Heineken alone accounts for roughly half the market, while AB InBev and Carlsberg each account for 19%, the association said.

While the three companies dominate India's ‌beer sector, ⁠many smaller players such as Bira and Simba also operate in the market.

Glass, plastics industry crisis

Beer and liquor sales in India have grown steadily alongside rising urbanisation and a young, increasingly affluent population.

The Confederation of Indian Alcoholic Beverage Companies, which represents many domestic companies, said it has written to several states seeking price adjustments to offset rising freight, logistics and input costs.

India's alcohol sector is tightly regulated, and raising retail prices typically requires ​approval. Around two-thirds of India's 28 ​states must authorise changes.

"Brewers may ⁠find it difficult to maintain supplies in states that do not allow price increases," the association said.

Some glass bottle vendors are warning their clients of reduced supplies and have increased their prices.

Nitin Agarwal, CEO ​of Fine Art Glass Works in Firozabad, a glass-making hub in northern Uttar Pradesh state, said ​he has cut production ⁠by 40% at his glass bottle making factory due to gas shortages. His customers include many liquor companies as well as producers of juice and ketchup bottles.

"We've cut production and increased prices by 17-18%," Agarwal said.

The shortages have already affected India's $5 billion bottled water market with some producers increasing ⁠prices by ​11% due to rising rates of plastic bottles and caps.

And there are signs ​the crisis is spreading.

An executive at Lotte Chilsung Beverage, one of the leading South Korean soft drinks companies, told Reuters that it has up to three months of inventory ​for plastic bottles and plastic materials.

"The situation is serious," he said.

QatarEnergy on ​Tuesday ‌declared force ​majeure ​on some of ⁠its ​affected ​long-term LNG supply ​contracts, ​with counterparties including ‌customers ⁠in Italy, Belgium, ​South ​Korea, ⁠and ​China.

Bangladesh will prioritise bilateral trade negotiations, deferment of its graduation from least developed country (LDC) status, among other issues, at the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) 14th Ministerial Conference, which opens tomorrow in Cameroon’s capital, Yaoundé.

The country has scheduled talks with the European Union (EU) on signing a free trade agreement (FTA) on the sidelines, Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir, who will be leading the Bangladesh delegation at the conference, told The Daily Star over the phone yesterday.

“We have a plan to discuss trade agreements and business issues with several countries and trade blocs apart from participating in the regular consultation meetings at the summit,” Muktadir said.

The four-day summit comes as the rules-based multilateral trading system under the WTO faces mounting pressure from bilateral deals, regionalism and protectionism by developed nations.

On the sidelines, Bangladesh will also seek EU support for delaying its LDC graduation, said the minister. The country applied to the United Nations last month to defer its LDC graduation by three years to November 2029. The UN Committee for Development Policy discussed the request at its annual meeting in New York last month and has set up a process to evaluate the application.

The Bangladesh delegation will also seek cooperation from member countries as it tries to join the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP). Trade partnership discussions are scheduled with South Korea, Singapore, and New Zealand, scheduled during the summit, which runs until March 29.

Other priorities on Bangladesh’s agenda include e-commerce, foreign direct investment and fisheries subsidies. On the latter, Bangladesh has agreed to reduce funding for the fishing of rare and endangered species.

Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), recently said it is difficult to predict how much support Bangladesh can secure for deferring graduation.

Gambia, as LDC coordinator, has proposed allowing LDCs and graduating LDCs with per capita real income below $1,000 -- measured using 1990 US dollar exchange rates – to continue providing subsidies.

Under that criterion, Razzaque said, Bangladesh would qualify to maintain subsidies in various sectors.

Gambia has also sought an extension of the agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) for graduating LDCs, which would benefit Bangladesh by preserving its patent waiver facility on goods such as medicines beyond graduation.

But concrete decisions at the ministerial conference will be difficult given fragmentation in global trade caused by US reciprocal tariffs and the US-Israel war on Iran, Razzaque said.

“If all the LDCs and graduating LDCs can raise their voice collectively, a few good decisions may come from the conference, because the WTO also has an agenda for LDCs,” he added.

Ministers from across the world will attend the conference to discuss challenges facing the multilateral trading system and decide on the WTO’s future work. The conference will be chaired by Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana, Cameroon’s minister of trade.

The opening session begins at 10am tomorrow with welcome remarks by the chair, the WTO director-general, and guests, including heads of state or government. This will be followed by a ministerial breakout session covering WTO foundational issues.

Thursday’s breakout sessions will focus on WTO reform, with each session facilitated by a minister. A plenary session on WTO reform will be held at the end of the day.

Friday will begin with an update on dispute settlement reform, followed by ministerial sessions on fisheries subsidies, incorporation of the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement, the e-commerce work programme and moratorium, agriculture, and development, including LDC issues.

The final day will begin with a heads of delegation meeting at ministerial level in preparation for the closing session, scheduled for midday.

Grameenphone Limited has forecast a slight decline in its financial performance for the first quarter of 2026, citing global geopolitical tensions and ongoing domestic economic challenges.

In a price-sensitive disclosure submitted to the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (24 March), the country's largest telecom operator said its revenue for the January-March period is expected to fall by around 2% year-on-year.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) are also projected to decline by approximately 3% year-on-year.

The company noted that further details regarding its performance will be disclosed in its official Q1 2026 financial report.

Following the announcement, Grameenphone's share price fell 1.34% to close at Tk251.10, reflecting investor concerns over its near-term outlook.

Grameenphone attributed the expected slowdown primarily to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted global energy markets.

Bangladesh, being heavily reliant on imported fuels and liquefied natural gas (LNG), is particularly vulnerable to such shocks. The situation has led to increased volatility in energy supply, higher fuel import costs, and early signs of strain in logistics and energy availability across the country.

The telecom operator said that although the overall business environment remains relatively stable, the combined impact of global uncertainties and a weak macroeconomic backdrop is beginning to affect economic activity and consumer behaviour.

Early indicators point to reduced mobility, slower business operations, and pressure on disposable incomes – factors that could weigh on telecom usage and spending.

Seasonal challenges have also added to the pressure, with severe storms in recent months disrupting operations in several areas and compounding broader economic headwinds.

Despite the challenges, the company said it remains committed to maintaining service continuity and operational resilience, adding that it is closely monitoring the situation and taking necessary measures to safeguard network performance and support customers during this period of uncertainty

The cautious outlook for early 2026 comes after a mixed financial performance in 2025.

Grameenphone reported an 18.53% year-on-year decline in profit after tax to Tk2,958 crore, down from Tk3,631 crore in 2024. The fall was attributed to subdued consumer spending, rising operational costs and cautious business activity.

Earnings per share also decreased to Tk21.90 from Tk26.89 in the previous year.

Revenue for 2025 stood at Tk15,806 crore, slightly lower than Tk15,845 crore recorded in 2024.

Mobile communication services remained the primary revenue driver, contributing Tk15,520 crore, while customer equipment and other segments added Tk54 crore.

Grameenphone's subscriber base continued to expand, reaching 8.39 crore by the end of 2025. Of these, 4.87 crore, or 58.1%, were internet users, underlining the growing importance of data services in the company's business model.

Despite the earnings pressure, the company demonstrated strong cash generation by declaring a 105% final cash dividend for 2025, bringing the total annual payout to 215%, including the interim dividend.