When the entire financial industry has been grappling with high levels of default loans, Alliance Finance, a joint-venture financial institution with Sri Lankan investment in Bangladesh, has managed to keep its default rate within 1% through prudent risk management.

In its first four years of operation, the company recorded no default loans at all, said Kanti Kumar Saha, CEO of Alliance Finance, while delivering his address at an event marking the company's eighth anniversary, held at a city hotel today (28 March).

People's Leasing and Finance, a subsidiary of Sri Lanka's largest state-owned bank, People's Bank, holds a major stake in Alliance Finance. Local sponsors include leading corporates and individuals such as Summit Group, Rangs Group, Alliance Holdings Limited, Green Delta Insurance Company Limited and Concept Knitting.

According to its annual report, the company's loan book stood at over Tk468 crore as of December 2024, while total deposits exceeded Tk432 crore. At a time when most non-bank financial institutions have been struggling to survive amid significant losses, Alliance Finance reported a net asset value per share of Tk11.54 at the end of 2024.

Jowher Rizvi, chairman of Alliance Finance, credited the management team for maintaining the default loan ratio at around 1% despite various challenges, describing it as a significant achievement.

He noted that one of the key factors behind this success was the absence of board-level interference in operational matters. "If you want to successfully run your company, do not allow the board to intervene, which we strictly follow," he said. "As chairman, I do not even have an office room at the company, as board members only attend meetings."

Saha outlined three core strengths of the institution. "Our strengths are mainly three: first, a board comprising highly educated and successful business leaders who have guided the institution to its current position; second, strong liquidity management and an unwavering commitment to depositors to return their funds on time – Alliance Finance has never failed in its commitments to its valued depositors and lenders; and third, a well-trained and experienced workforce capable of navigating challenging conditions," he said.

He further noted that although the industry has been going through a difficult period with very high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs), Alliance Finance did not record any non-performing investments (NPIs) during its first four years of operations. "Although we experienced some thereafter, we have managed to keep it within 1% over the past four years," he added.

"Despite a decline in loan demand for various reasons, Alliance Finance (AFPLC) has maintained its growth trajectory over the years without any major disruptions. The same applies to profitability trends and the continuity of dividend payments to shareholders," he said.

"Alliance Finance has also maintained its long-term credit rating at AA- and short-term rating at ST-2 for the past two consecutive years, despite volatility in the financial sector, during which many companies experienced downgrades."

He expressed confidence that the ratings would improve further in the coming days.

Outlining the company's business strategy, Saha said, "Alliance Finance has entered into various strategic alliances with leading microfinance institutions (MFIs) to reach women and CMSME clients, extending agricultural and sustainable finance in rural areas. It has also signed agreements with various departments of the central bank for refinancing and pre-financing schemes. As a result, more than 20% of AFPLC's funding sources now come from refinancing, which has helped keep our cost of funds low."

He projected that the future of the financial sector would be driven by financial technology (fintech).

"We launched our Core Business Solutions (CBS) two and a half years ago to provide seamless services to our valued customers and to ensure data integrity. We are among the top five finance companies to roll out e-KYC and, more recently, fully digital platforms to facilitate real-time transactions," he said.

"We have already established platforms enabling clients to make payments and collections through mobile financial service operators. As a result, depositors can pay installments and borrowers can settle EMIs quickly via their mobile phones," he added.

Oil prices ​rose on Friday and notched weekly gains, reflecting scepticism about prospects for a ceasefire in the ‌month-old Iran war.

Brent crude futures rose by $4.56, or 4.2 percent, to $112.57 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures rose $5.16, or 5.5 percent, to settle at $99.64.

The Brent benchmark has jumped 53 percent since February 27, the day before the US and Israel ​launched strikes against Iran, while WTI has gained 45 percent since then. On a weekly basis, Brent gained ​about 0.3 percent, while WTI gained over 1 percent.

Traders are cautious about Trump’s statements about the Iran talks. An Iranian official told Reuters that a US proposal conveyed to Tehran by Pakistan ​was “one-sided and unfair”.

“Investors remain focused on the war’s longevity rather than headlines, with any prolonged closure of ​the strait (of Hormuz) or damage to infrastructure keeping a significant risk premium in prices,” StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said.

While Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure, ​the US has also sent thousands of troops to the Middle East, with Trump weighing whether ​to use ground forces to seize Iran’s strategic oil hub of Kharg Island. “We look for the oil market to develop ‌an immunity to Trump’s conciliatory comments and optimistic tone regarding a deal, especially given apparent intentions to send an additional 10,000 troops toward Iran,” oil trading adviser Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note to clients.

The Iran war has taken about 11 million barrels per day out of global oil supply, with the ​International Energy Agency describing the ​crisis as worse than the two 1970s oil shocks combined.

“Every day flows through the Strait remain restricted, more than 10 million barrels of oil are missing ... tightening the oil ​market further,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Analysts at Macquarie Group said that oil ​prices will fall quickly if the war begins to wind down soon but still remain above pre-conflict levels. However, prices could rise to $200 if the war drags on until the end of June, they added.

Elsewhere, Russian oil producers have ​warned buyers that they could declare force majeure on supplies from ​major Baltic Sea ports after Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

The dollar rose on Friday and was on course for its strongest monthly gain in ​almost a year, buoyed by safe-haven demand as the Middle East war intensifies and hopes fade for de-escalation.

The yen was particularly under pressure, falling in afternoon trading ‌to its weakest since July 2024 and raising the possibility of currency market intervention by the Japanese authorities.

Iran is expected to respond on Friday to a US peace proposal to end the war, with US President Donald Trump and senior White House officials told by interlocutors to expect a counter-proposal.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the war was expected to last weeks, rather than months, and that US objectives ​could be met without ground troops.

US consumer sentiment slipped to a three-month low in March as war-driven oil price rises weighed on the economic outlook.

Safe-haven flows underpinned the ​dollar, which has also been lifted by rising expectations for a US rate increase this year. The dollar index rose 0.3 percent to 100.17, up 2.57 percent so far in March and on course for its best monthly showing since July 2025, when it rose 3.4 percent.

“Weekend trading is also, to a certain degree, ​taking hold in terms of what you might or might not want to be long or short over the weekend,” said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street ​in Boston. “The dollar has been pretty correlated with risk these days in the correct way.”

While senior Iranian officials said diplomacy continued, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterated a ban on all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that was linked to allies of the US and Israel.

Markets stayed on edge at the end of another volatile week, as Trump again extended a deadline for striking Iran’s energy facilities even as Washington and Tehran ​offered starkly conflicting accounts of diplomatic progress.

The Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 more ground troops to the region, the Wall Street Journal reported, further dimming investor hopes of ​a near-term end to the war.

Two liquefied petroleum gas tankers, BW Elm and BW Tyr, are crossing the ​Strait of Hormuz bound for India, according to ‌ship tracking data from LSEG and Kpler.

The US-Israeli war against Iran has all but halted shipping through the strait, but Iran ​said this week that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the waterway ​if they coordinate with Iranian authorities.

The two India-flagged vessels have crossed the Gulf area and are in ​the eastern Strait of Hormuz, the data showed. India is ​gradually moving its stranded LPG cargoes out from the strait, with four LPG tankers moved so far - Shivalik, Nanda Devi, Pine Gas, and Jag ​Vasant.

As of Friday, 20 Indian-flagged ships including five ​LPG carriers were stranded in the Gulf, Rajesh Kumar Sinha, special ‌secretary in the federal shipping ministry, said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Friday that it has reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan to unlock a new $1.2 billion package as part of its support programs for the country.

The South Asian nation is one of the largest debtors to the IMF after Argentina and Ukraine.

The IMF in a statement praised the Pakistani authorities' commitment to "pursuing sound and prudent macroeconomic policies to preserve the recent gains in macro-financial stabilization, while deepening structural reforms to accelerate growth and strengthening social protection to mitigate the impact of volatile energy prices on the most vulnerable."

The disbursement is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, according to the fund's statement.

The agreement, if approved, would give Pakistan access to $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and around $210 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, it said.

Bangladesh will import two liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from the spot market at prices lower than its recent purchases, as global fuel rates ease amid diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the US-Israel war on Iran.

The Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase yesterday approved the procurement for delivery in late April.

UK-based TotalEnergies Gas & Power Ltd offered $19.77 per MMBtu (metric million British thermal unit) for both cargoes, down from over $20 per MMBtu in deals struck earlier this month. The total cost is estimated at Tk 1,667 crore.

Officials at the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources said the lower rate reflects a recent dip in global energy prices, driven by expectations of a negotiated end to the Middle East conflict, which has outweighed concerns over supply disruptions in the Gulf.

Oil prices have softened in recent days, creating a window for cheaper spot purchases.

According to US media reports, prices fell as a diplomatic push by the US to end the war gathered pace, eclipsing news of more troops being sent to the region and the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely shut.

Brent sank as much as 7 percent toward $97 a barrel before paring the drop, while West Texas Intermediate was near $88.

The US drafted a 15-point plan to help bring the conflict to a close, according to news reports. The proposal was delivered to Iran via Pakistan.

On March 17, the government approved two LNG cargoes from Aramco Trading Singapore at $20.96 and $20.92 per MMBtu.

Prior to that, three cargoes were secured at above $20, including one from TotalEnergies at $21.58 and two from South Korea’s Posco International at $20.76. The three shipments are expected to arrive between April 5 and April 13.

Immediately after the war began on February 28, Petrobangla, the state-owned agency responsible for managing gas, bought two emergency cargoes at significantly higher rates – $28.28 per MMBtu from US-based Gunvor and $23.08 from Vitol.

In December, LNG had cost just $9.99 per MMBtu.

Since the onset of the war, the government has approved at least nine spot LNG cargoes to avoid supply shortages.

Bangladesh’s growing reliance on LNG reflects structural shifts in its energy sector. Domestic gas output has stagnated, prompting imports since 2018 through floating storage and regasification units at Moheshkhali.

In 2025, Bangladesh imported 109 LNG cargoes worth $3.88 billion, up from 86 cargoes costing $3.02 billion in 2024, according to LightCastle Partners.

Qatar remained the largest supplier, followed by Oman’s OQ Trading, while the rest were sourced from the spot market.

Gold rose more ​than 1% on Wednesday, buoyed by a drop in oil prices that eased ‌inflation worries and tempered expectations for interest rate hikes, even as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict lingered.

Spot gold was up 1.6% to $4,546.59 per ounce as of 9am EDT (1300 GMT) after hitting a four-month low on Monday. ​US gold futures for April delivery jumped 3.3% to $4,545.40.

"Gold is seeing a technical ​recovery and is also being supported by optimism that hostilities involving Iran ⁠may be diminishing, which has helped ease oil prices," said Peter Grant, vice president and ​senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

"We will need to see some further easing of inflation ​concerns to start thinking about the possibility of another US rate cut at some point this year. Gold could get back up to $5,000 if that were to become the case."

Oil prices sank after reports the ​US had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war. Pakistan has delivered ​a proposal from the US to Iran, and either Pakistan or Turkey could be venues for discussions ‌to ⁠de-escalate the war, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is planning to send thousands of airborne troops to the Gulf to give Trump more options to order a ground assault, sources have told Reuters.

Falling oil prices help ease inflation pressures, reducing the likelihood of ​prolonged higher interest rates. ​Despite being an ⁠inflation hedge, gold loses appeal in high‑rate environments as the opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding asset increases.

Analysts at SP Angel said in ​a note the recent volatility in gold prices reflects a significant ​rise in ⁠speculative investment flows in 2025.

"The recent pullback has seen a sharp exit of much of this capital. However, we see the recent trend of central bank reserve diversification as set to continue, ⁠with ​new entrants buying in 2026."

Spot gold rose 64% last ​year and prices hit an all-time high of $5,594.82 an ounce on 29 January.

Spot silver added 2.2% to $72.83, platinum gained 0.7% to $1,948.10 ​and palladium steadied at $1,439.31.

Bangladesh lost an estimated $68.3 billion through trade-related illicit financial flows between 2013 and 2022, according to a report by Global Financial Integrity released on Thursday (26 March).

Trade misinvoicing involves deliberately falsifying the value or quantity of imports and exports to evade taxes, shift profits, or transfer capital abroad, report said.

The report finds that Bangladesh is among the top 10 countries in developing Asia in terms of total trade value gaps.

In Bangladesh's case, a significant portion of the illicit flows is linked to trade with advanced economies. The report estimates that around $33 billion of the total gap occurred in transactions with countries such as the United States and those in Europe.

The findings suggest that Bangladesh's exposure is not limited to regional trade but is tied to global supply chains, particularly in export-oriented sectors and import-dependent industries.

Compared to other South Asian countries, Bangladesh's losses are substantial but remain far lower than India's, which recorded more than $1.06 trillion in illicit trade flows over the same period.

Sri Lanka, by contrast, recorded a smaller volume of about $24 billion in trade gaps with advanced economies, though its economic vulnerability amplifies the impact of such leakages.

Across developing Asia, trade-related illicit financial flows reached an estimated $1.69 trillion in 2022 alone, underscoring the scale of the challenge.

Major economies such as China, Thailand and India account for the bulk of these flows, though the problem spans countries of all sizes.

The study said, such practices remain deeply embedded across Asian economies, with no clear sign of decline over the past decade.

When the money market is already stressed by high government borrowing, newly introduced programmes such as the Family Card and farm loan waivers are likely to create additional fiscal pressure, potentially crowding out the private sector.

The extra spending on social programmes may come at the cost of higher inflation, as low revenue earnings will prompt the government to source funds from banks, raising interest rates and increasing business costs.

A senior Bangladesh Bank executive said that in this situation, the government has been aggressively seeking external funding sources to reduce borrowing pressure on the domestic market.

Government borrowing already grew nearly 30% year-on-year in January, surpassing the monetary target of 21.6% set for FY26 by Bangladesh Bank. The call money rate, which fell below the policy rate of 10% at the beginning of March, surged above it again amid rising import costs following the Iran war.

For example, average call money rates for short notice loans jumped to 10.50% on 16 March from 9.85% on 5 March, central bank data shows. Meanwhile, the dollar exchange rate, which had remained stable for months, rose to nearly Tk123 from Tk122.30 in just two weeks in March.

Bangladesh Bank has allowed the taka to depreciate, prioritising the protection of foreign exchange reserves amid rising import costs. Faster taka depreciation will directly affect inflation, which began rising in February, exceeding 9%.

The senior Bangladesh Bank executive told The Business Standard that rates for treasury bills and bonds are expected to rise soon, as the government will need to borrow more to fund newly introduced social programmes and cover rising energy bills.

He added that government borrowing is likely to increase significantly in May and June when the programmes are implemented on a full scale. "The government can meet the demand from both domestic and external sources," he said.

Among domestic sources, borrowing will come through treasury bills, bonds, and savings instruments, as the central bank is not planning to print money. Higher treasury bills and bond rates will influence market lending rates, which will ultimately impact inflation, he added. Central bank data shows inflation, which had eased for a few months, began rising again in February, surpassing 9%.

The government may consider revising the ceiling of savings instruments from the existing Tk60 lakh, said the executive, who wished to remain anonymous. However, sourcing foreign funds is the better option to ease liquidity stress and maintain balance in the money market, he added.

In this context, the government is emphasising the inflow of foreign loans from India and China, Bangladesh's major lenders, to meet the additional demand, said a senior Bangladesh Bank official.

The government has already begun addressing issues surrounding projects financed under India's line of credit (LoC) and the resumption of Export Credit Agency (ECA) support for capital machinery imports from China, which had stalled.

Over the past two years, the government has largely relied on bank borrowing to meet operational costs due to low foreign fund inflows. The fuel price surge following the Iran war intensified the funding crisis, prompting the government to seek foreign sources.

Prime Minister's Economic and Planning Adviser Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said the government is reallocating funds from various sectors and considering low-interest loans from international development agencies to ensure sufficient fuel imports.

Speaking to journalists on 15 March, he added that the government is also exploring support from institutions such as the IMF and World Bank.

Amid the funding crunch, the government recently launched the pilot phase of the Family Card programme, under which at least 40,000 families will receive benefits during the four-month trial.

When the programme runs in full swing, providing Tk2,500 per month to two crore beneficiaries by 2030, it will cost about Tk5,000 crore per month, roughly Tk60,000 crore annually, according to a study of think-tank Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID).

The newly introduced farm loan waiver programme will cost approximately Tk1,550 crore from the budget. The Cabinet approved a proposal on 26 February to waive agricultural loans of up to Tk10,000, including accrued interest, benefiting around 12 lakh farmers in line with the government's Election Manifesto 2026.

Expert views

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said Bangladesh cannot navigate heightened global uncertainty with business-as-usual budgeting, yet crude austerity is not the answer.

"The challenge is to spend smarter. The tax system collects too little from those most able to pay and remains overly dependent on trade taxes. Widening the net through digital invoicing, stronger compliance among large taxpayers, and fewer discretionary exemptions would strengthen revenues without raising rates," he said.

The economist added that deficit financing is becoming more difficult. External borrowing is costlier in a risk-averse world, while excessive domestic borrowing risks crowding out private investment. Bangladesh cannot rely indefinitely on expensive bank borrowing or short-term instruments to close structural gaps.

Ezazul Islam, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM), said the new government will need substantial funds in the coming days to implement the new pay scale for government employees and social programmes like the Family Card, farmer support, and agriculture loan waivers.

He warned that continued high borrowing would increase the debt burden when the debt-to-GDP ratio is already 40%, and inflation will not ease as expected. The government now faces two options: compromise traditional development projects like roads and transport to reduce budgetary pressure, or increase foreign borrowing. Major sources of foreign borrowing include the IMF, Asian Development Bank, World Bank, and Islamic Development Bank, which the government has already begun contacting.

US consumer sentiment fell more than expected in March, touching a three-month low, as war in the Middle ​East stoked inflation worries and cast a shadow over the economic outlook.

The decline, reported by the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers on Friday, occurred across political ‌party affiliation and age groups, with large decreases among middle- and higher-income consumers as well as those owning stocks.

The month-long US-Israeli war with Iran has sent global oil prices surging more than 50 percent. Retail gasoline prices have jumped $1 to an average of $3.98 per gallon, data from motorist advocacy group AAA showed, while the S&P 500 index has dropped about 6.7 percent.

Though the correlation between consumer sentiment and spending is weak, rising gasoline prices and falling share ​values, combined with a stagnant labor market, could undercut consumption and hamper economic growth. Higher-income households have led consumer spending, underpinned by robust wealth levels.

“Sentiment hit a record low ​in mid-2022 when inflation was at its highest level in decades, but the economy held up with solid GDP growth and an historically strong labor market,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial.

“But if the conflict drags on, gasoline prices move even higher in the summer driving season, and stocks continue to falter, consumers ​could throw in the towel and start to pull back on their spending.”

The University of Michigan said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a final reading of 53.3 this month, the lowest ​reading since December, from 55.5 earlier. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would ease to 54.0.

It was at 56.6 in February and is not too far from a record low touched in June 2022. The survey’s short-run economic outlook gauge plunged 14 percent, while a measure of year-ahead expected personal finances sank 10 percent. Declines in long-run expectations were more subdued, the survey showed.

“These patterns suggest that, at this time, consumers may not expect recent ​negative developments to persist far into the future,” said Joanne Hsu, the director of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers.

“These views are subject to change, however, if the Iran conflict ​becomes protracted or if higher energy prices pass through to overall inflation.”

WILL GASOLINE PRICES OFFSET TAX CUTS?

There are worries that gasoline prices, should they continue to rise, could cut into the fiscal boost from tax cuts ‌ushered in by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Economists at JPMorgan estimated that could happen if the national average price rises close to $5 per gallon or more. Prices at the pump in California and Washington state have already topped $5 per gallon.

“As things stand now, the increase in gasoline prices to date is unlikely to fully offset the magnitude of lower taxes,” they wrote in a note.

“Of course, even if higher gas prices don’t fully offset the OBBBA, they would still reduce real spending power compared to what was expected before the Mideast conflict began. Higher gas prices are also ​mostly felt more evenly across the income distribution.”

Stocks ​on Wall Street extended their decline, with ⁠the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes dropping to more than six-month lows. The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies. US Treasury yields were mixed.

The survey’s measure of consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to 3.8 percent this month from 3.4 percent earlier in March and ​in February. Consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next five years slipped to 3.2 percent from 3.3 percent last month.

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark ​overnight interest rate in the ⁠3.50 percent -3.75 percent range this month. In updated projections released alongside the decision, US central bank policymakers anticipated higher inflation and only a single reduction in borrowing costs this year.

“The evidence would appear to be for now that the inflation impact of high gas prices is expected to be temporary, but it would appear that the year-ahead expectation is set to jump above 4 percent in the preliminary April report,” said ⁠John Ryding, chief ​economic advisor at Brean Capital.

“From a Fed perspective, the majority of the (policy-setting) committee might interpret this to mean that ​rates should be held steady.”

Bangladesh faces a looming economic challenge stemming from global oil price crossing a critical threshold of US$120 per barrel amid the escalating Mideast tensions, with an extra burden on its cautiously tailored budget.

Researchers at a press briefing Saturday warned that such an oil surge could impose a huge burden of Tk 610 billion in additional annual spending to fuel the country's economy.Global economy trends

Their note of alert is underlined with serious concerns about economic sustainability, industrial growth, and employment.

Change Initiative has carried out a study on this score where the researchers have revealed that every $10 increase in Brent crude-oil price per barrel translates into nearly $1 billion in extra annual expenditure for Bangladesh.

The country imports about 95 per cent of its energy needs, and this dependency leaves the economy "highly vulnerable to global market volatility", the study notes, in the wake of energy blockages in the Gulf amid the hit-and-kill US-Israel war against Iran.

If prices remain above $120 for an extended period, the annual cost could balloon to $4-5 billion, creating unprecedented fiscal pressure.

The small and medium enterprise (SME) sector, which accounts for 70-80 per cent of national employment and contributes 25-30 per cent to gross domestic product (GDP), is expected to be hit hardest. Rising fuel costs would increase production expenses, reduce competitiveness, and potentially trigger widespread job losses.

Analysts caution that prolonged subsidies are not a viable solution, and the government may eventually be forced to adjust energy prices, risking de-industrialization.

Chief researcher M. Zakir Hossain Khan points out a blessing in disguise out of the crisis, emphasizing that "while the situation is dire, it also presents a chance for Bangladesh to accelerate its transition toward renewable energy".

He notes that countries such as China, India, and Vietnam have successfully invested in renewables to stabilize their industries, and Bangladesh must follow suit to safeguard its future.

The study reveals that rooftop solar installations in industrial zones could reduce operating costs by 30-50 per cent while cutting carbon emissions significantly.

In fact, utilizing just 10 per cent of unused space in industrial parks could generate 57 megawatts (MW) of solar power, reducing emissions by over 51,000 tons of carbon dioxide annually.

Expanding this to 20 per cent could double the capacity, further strengthening energy independence.

Researchers also highlighted the potential for carbon-credit revenues, estimating that Bangladesh could earn around $0.40 million annually by reducing emissions in SME clusters.Bangladesh tourism guide

Sectors such as leather, plastics, packaging, and light engineering have been identified as priority areas, with the potential to cut emissions by up to 49 per cent through targeted interventions.

The urgency is underscored by Bangladesh's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target, which aims to reduce 69.84 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide emissions by 2035.

Achieving this goal will require immediate and decisive action to transform the energy landscape.

As global oil prices continue to climb, Bangladesh stands at a crossroads.

Failure to act could result in economic instability, job losses, and weakened industrial capacity.

But with bold investments in solar and other renewable sources, the country has the opportunity to not only mitigate the crisis but also position itself as a leader in sustainable industrial growth, the study concludes.

Domestic gold prices have fallen by nearly Tk 36,000 per bhori over the past 23 days, driven by a sharp decline in global rates amid shifting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The price of gold per bhori stood at around Tk 2.41 lakh yesterday, down from around Tk 2.77 lakh on March 3, according to data from the Bangladesh Jeweller’s Association (Bajus).

The domestic market has adjusted prices 12 times between March 1 and March 25, with 10 of those changes reflecting downward revisions.

The decline comes after a month-long rally that saw gold prices more than double in just over a year. In January 2025, 22-carat gold was priced at around Tk 1.40 lakh per bhori. By the start of this year, it had risen to Tk 2.22 lakh, and peaked at Tk 2.86 lakh on January 29, 2026.

The recent drop mirrors volatility in international markets, where gold prices have fallen by $757.43 per ounce over the past 30 days.

On Monday, spot gold briefly touched $4,100 per ounce, its lowest level since December 11, before recovering to $4,545.34 by yesterday, buoyed by a weaker dollar and falling oil prices.

The rebound followed US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day delay in planned strikes on Iran’s power plants, which also sent crude oil prices down 13 percent. However, the recovery has not offset the broader monthly decline.

Bajus said the prices of pure gold in the country’s bullion market have fallen, prompting adjustments in gold rates. However, the main reason behind the decline is the continued drop in global gold prices.

Dewan Aminul Islam Shahin, chairman of Bajus’ standing committee on pricing and price monitoring, told The Daily Star that local gold prices depend on multiple factors -- international benchmark, import costs, and demand.

He explained that local prices reflect a lag tied to import cycles. Gold imported into Bangladesh undergoes 12 to 15 days of processing before reaching retail outlets, which delays the transmission of international price movements.

“International gold markets have been highly volatile, with prices swinging sharply within hours,” Shahin said. “Gold tends to rise during global crises, such as wars or energy shortages, and falls when there are signs of peace.”

Industry insiders say renewed conflict could reverse the downward trend, and if the war drags on with rising damages, gold may once again appeal to investors.

Meanwhile, international analysts expect gold’s real yields to continue moving higher, according to a Reuters report.

With hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, and “as USD strength eases, safe-haven demand starts to reassert. This reinforces the view that gold didn’t lose its safe-haven appeal. ‌It was briefly crowded out by ⁠the USD, and now that pressure is easing,” Christopher Wong, a strategist at Singapore-based OCBC, told Reuters.

He also said gold remains sensitive to US Federal Reserve policy expectations, dollar strength, and geopolitical developments. “The rebound suggests dips may continue to find support unless real yields move meaningfully higher.”

Thailand has reached an agreement with Iran to allow Thai oil vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the Southeast Asian nation's Prime Minister said on Saturday.

"An agreement has been reached to allow Thai oil tankers to transit safely through the Strait of Hormuz," Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said at a press conference, adding the development would alleviate concerns over fuel imports.

The International ​Monetary Fund and Pakistan has ‌reached a staff-level agreement on the South Asian nation's loan program, a ​key step toward unlocking $1.2 billion ​in funding, the fund said ⁠on Friday.

The agreement, which requires ​IMF board approval, would give Pakistan ​access to $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and $210 million under the Resilience ​and Sustainability Facility, bringing disbursements ​under the ongoing program to $4.5 billion.

Under the $7 billion ‌program, ⁠the Washington-based lender is urging Islamabad's policymakers to keep monetary policy tight and data-dependent to anchor ​inflation expectations ​and ⁠strengthen external buffers.

Pakistan's central bank kept its key ​policy rate unchanged at 10.5% this ​month, ⁠pausing its rate cuts as rising global energy prices and regional ⁠tensions ​pose new inflation ​risks for the import-dependent economy.

Akij Food & Beverage Ltd secured approval from the capital market regulatory body to raise Tk 500 crore through issuing bonds, aiming to strengthen its financing base.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) gave the approval yesterday at a commission meeting at its office in the capital.

According to an official BSEC press release, the company will raise the fund through floating an unsecured, non-convertible, fully redeemable zero-coupon bond with a tenure ranging from six months to a maximum of five years.

A zero-coupon bond is a debt instrument that does not pay interim coupons but instead trades at a deep discount, rendering profit at maturity, when the security is redeemed for its full face value.

The bond will be issued to banks, non-bank financial institutions, insurance companies, institutional investors, and high-net-worth individuals through private placement. Each unit of the bond will carry a face value of Tk 10 lakh.

Sena Insurance PLC will act as the trustee for the bond, while North Star Investments (BD) Limited has been appointed as the fund arranger.

According to the company’s website, Akij Food started its journey in 2006. It exports its products to over 40 countries in Asia and Africa. The company holds several popular brands including Mojo, Frutika, and Speed.

Bangladesh’s external debt remained largely stable in the last quarter of 2025, with a slight increase mainly driven by public sector borrowing.

According to Bangladesh Bank (BB) data, the country’s gross external debt rose to $113.52 billion in October-December, from $112.22 billion in July-September -- an increase by $1.3 billion or over 1 percent compared to the previous quarter.

This reflects a relatively slow growth in debt in the final quarter, following fluctuations earlier in the year.

Public sector external debt grew from $92.56 billion in September to $93.46 billion in December, an increase of about $900 million, according to central bank data.

Within this, general government debt edged up to $80.94 billion from $80.48 billion, while government loans rose slightly to $80.36 billion from $79.86 billion, as spending on development projects remained slow.

As a result, foreign aid for development projects has not been disbursed despite a large pipeline of assistance, so overall foreign debt has not grown significantly.

Liabilities of other public corporations also increased, reaching $12.52 billion from $12.08 billion, highlighting the government’s ongoing reliance on external financing to support public spending and development projects.

Private sector external debt showed more variation. It fell in the September quarter to $19.66 billion from $19.84 billion in June, reflecting businesses’ cautious approach amid tighter external financing. However, the trend reversed in the final quarter, with private debt rising to $20.06 billion in December.

The increase was mainly due to short-term borrowing, as long-term debt remained flat, and investment activity has yet to pick up.

Short-term liabilities grew to $10.19 billion from $9.66 billion, with short-term loans rising sharply to $3.11 billion from $2.71 billion. Exposure through offshore banking units also rose during this period.

Meanwhile, long-term private sector debt edged down slightly to $9.87 billion from $10 billion, showing low demand for longer-term external financing.

In the public sector, long-term external liabilities remained concentrated in the central bank and state-owned enterprises.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) fell short of its revenue target by 28 percent during July-February of fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26), leaving a gap of Tk 71,472 crore.

As per provisional data released yesterday, the shortfall came despite a 12 percent year-on-year rise in collections to Tk 2.54 lakh crore, buoyed largely by robust VAT (value-added tax) receipts from domestic trade and economic activity.

The deficit underscores the widening gap between the tax authority’s ambitions and ground reality. The board has consistently missed its target over the last decade.

Yet, in late November, the previous interim government had revised the NBR’s full-year target upward to Tk 5.54 lakh crore from Tk 4.99 lakh crore, following strong first-quarter collections.

Meeting that goal would now require mobilising around Tk 3 lakh crore over the remaining four months of the fiscal year, an outcome economists say is highly unrealistic given persistent inflation, sluggish development spending, and broader economic weakness.

Amid this sluggish revenue performance, the government is increasingly turning to borrowing to finance its expenditures.

According to provisional data from Bangladesh Bank, net borrowing from the banking sector crossed Tk 48,800 crore by January 25, nearly five times higher than the Tk 10,558 crore borrowed during the same period a year earlier, highlighting the growing fiscal strain.

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has warned that Bangladesh’s revenue targets for the current fiscal year are getting increasingly out of reach, urging a shift toward more realistic planning and stronger domestic resource mobilisation.

According to a paper by Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional director (research) at CPD, the total revenue shortfall for FY26 will likely exceed Tk 1 lakh crore, much like what was recorded in FY25, The Daily Star reported in February.

According to the think tank, the annual revenue growth target for FY26 was set at 34.5 percent over the previous year’s actual collection, an ambitious benchmark from the outset. But with collections lagging in the first half, the pressure has now shifted sharply to the remaining months.

“If the annual growth target is to be met, tax collection will need to increase by 59.4 percent during February to July of FY26,” said Fahmida Khatun, executive director of CPD, at a briefing on FY27 budget recommendations this month.

“This appears highly unlikely given the current pace of revenue collection.”

Against this backdrop, CPD has emphasised the need to strengthen domestic resource mobilisation without placing an excessive burden on citizens. The call comes as the current ruling party has set an ambitious goal of raising the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio to 15 percent by 2035, up from 6.8 percent in FY25.

However, CPD cautioned that such a target must be backed by a comprehensive and well-sequenced action plan, alongside consistent implementation and strong political commitment -- areas where Bangladesh has historically struggled.

To expand the revenue base, the think tank suggested exploring new avenues of taxation, including meaningful levies on wealth and property, as well as capturing revenue from the rapidly growing digital economy.

The government’s manifesto also includes proposals to introduce a modern property and wealth tax regime, which CPD sees as a step in the right direction if properly designed and enforced.

At the same time, CPD called for a rationalisation of tax incentives.

“Starting in FY27, all ad hoc provisions of tax incentives should be discontinued,” Khatun said, stressing the need for transparency and predictability in the tax system.

Yet, the think tank acknowledged the political and economic realities ahead. With businesses facing a challenging environment, demand for incentives is likely to rise in FY27.

In this context, CPD urged the NBR to exercise greater caution and selectivity in granting tax breaks.

A medium-term strategy to gradually phase out existing tax exemptions should also be put in place, it added, to avoid sudden shocks while improving revenue efficiency over time.

Another critical area highlighted by CPD is the large volume of disputed tax claims stuck in the system. Accelerating their resolution through the Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) mechanism could unlock significant revenue, the think tank noted.

Within the July-February tax receipts, VAT from domestic activity was the largest contributor, accounting for 38 percent of total collection, rising 14.83 percent year on year to Tk 97,281 crore.

Direct taxes -- income and corporate -- accounted for 33.5 percent, climbing 13 percent to Tk 85,136 crore. Import tariffs grew more modestly, up 8.8 percent to Tk 71,912 crore.

Bangladesh and other South Asian countries could face lower remittances from the Middle East as the ongoing conflict in the region weakens labour demand and squeezes migrant worker incomes, according to new research by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The report, released yesterday, estimates that the conflict could lower economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific by up to 1.3 percentage points over 2026-2027 and push inflation up by 3.2 percentage points if energy market disruptions persist beyond a year.

Nearly half of Bangladesh’s more than $30 billion in annual remittances come from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait together accounted for 86 percent of Bangladeshi migrant workers who secured jobs abroad in fiscal year 2024-25, according to the Bangladesh Economic Review 2025.

The disruption is already visible. Hundreds of Middle East-bound flights from Bangladesh have been cancelled since the escalation of the US-Israel war on Iran, mostly affecting migrant workers.

The ADB warned that a remittance shock could compound the effects of higher energy prices and tighter external financing conditions by simultaneously weakening foreign currency inflows and household demand.

“This channel is especially important because remittance dependence does not always align with exposure based on trade or energy indicators, and may therefore represent an additional source of macroeconomic vulnerability,” the report said.

The report said remittances to many Asian economies have historically exhibited countercyclical behaviour, often increasing and providing an important buffer during periods of stress.

“However, the current shock may differ, as it is centred in the Middle East -- a significant migration destination and source of remittances,” the report said, adding that economies in South Asia appear particularly exposed, with inflows from the Middle East exceeding 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in some cases.

The ADB brief said remittances from Middle Eastern economies accounted for 8.1 percent of Nepal’s GDP, 5.6 percent of Pakistan’s GDP, and 2.9 percent of Sri Lanka’s GDP in 2021.

For Bangladesh, remittances accounted for 2.8 percent of its GDP, according to estimates from five years ago.

The ADB also warned that higher energy prices could fuel inflation across the region, with the largest impact in South Asian economies.

The conflict affects economies in Asia and the Pacific through higher energy prices, supply chain and trade disruptions, and tighter financial conditions. Tourism and remittances could also be impacted, the Manila-based multilateral lender said.

“Higher oil and gas prices feed into energy and producer prices, with pass-through also determined by each economy’s dependence on imported energy and the degree of domestic energy price regulation. Because the shocks are assumed to be temporary, inflation moderates in 2027 as energy prices normalise,” it said.

Bangladesh today sought the European Union's (EU) support for deferring its graduation from the group of least developed countries (LDCs).

Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir raised the issue at a bilateral meeting with Maros Sefcovic, EU Trade Commissioner, on the sidelines of the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference in Yaounde, Cameroon.

"We have sought EU support for the deferment as we need it," Muktadir told The Daily Star after the meeting.

Bangladesh will need backing from a majority of UN member countries at the upcoming General Assembly in September in New York to secure a three-year deferment.

"We are hopeful that not only the EU but other countries will support us for the deferment," the minister said.

Last month, the UN Committee for Development Policy (CDP) initiated a process to assess Bangladesh's request to defer its LDC graduation, currently slated for later this year, to 2029. If not resolved through discussion, the plea will be put to a vote at the UN General Assembly.

The minister also urged the EU trade commissioner to begin negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA), following a proposal Bangladesh submitted to the EU several months ago.

According to Muktadir, the EU commissioner raised questions about labour conditions, to which the minister replied that Bangladesh had already amended its labour law in line with International Labour Organisation (ILO) recommendations.

The minister further called for expanding bilateral trade between Bangladesh and the 27-nation EU bloc. Currently, Bangladesh exports goods worth over $25 billion annually to the EU, predominantly garments, while importing around $6 billion in return.

Bangladesh is seeking the deferment amid concerns from the business community that it is unprepared to face the challenges of graduation. Immediate graduation could trigger significant export loss due to the withdrawal of preferential trade benefits.

Bangladesh has emphasised the need to reform the World Trade Organization (WTO), while cautioning that any such changes must not undermine the body’s fundamental principles.

Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir made the call at the beginning of the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference on March 26 in Yaounde, Cameroon.

The call came as the multilateral trading arrangement faces challenges due to protectionism, particularly the unilateral imposition of tariffs by countries, such as the recent reciprocal tariff slapped by the USA on many nations.

The consensus-based, rules-based multilateral trading arrangement, anchored in non-discrimination and inclusivity, has benefited both developed and developing nations, including Least Developed Countries (LDCs), he said.

He highlighted key mechanisms underpinning the system, including most-favoured-nation (MFN) treatment, duty-free quota-free market access, and special and differential treatment (S&DT) for developing countries and LDCs.

While reform is essential, it should not come at the cost of distorting its fundamental principles, he said.

Speaking to The Daily Star at the sidelines of the conference, Muktadir said the WTO’s rules-based framework has played a key role in reducing global poverty over the past three decades.

The time and effort invested by nations in creating the current framework should not be wasted in the name of reform, he said.

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, who is also attending the conference, said the dispute settlement mechanism, often described as the “jewel in the crown” of the WTO, has become almost non-functional due to this prolonged deadlock.

Rahman underlined the need to prioritise fixing tariff rates on an MFN basis.

He said that in recent years, developed countries like the US have been fixing tariffs unilaterally above MFN rates under the guise of reciprocal tariffs, causing many countries to lose their competitive edge.

For instance, he said, if Bangladesh applies the American reciprocal tariff formula to reduce its trade deficit with China and India, the rate of import tax could reach as much as 48 percent on imports from China and 42 percent on those from India.

Similarly, Bangladesh could face much higher tariffs from the European Union if reciprocal measures were applied, given its annual exports of over $25 billion to the bloc compared to imports of $6 billion.

Separately, Sheikh Hossain Muhammad Mustafiz, a director of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, warned of a future cotton supply squeeze.

He said that four African nations, including Benin, plan to invest significantly in utilising their own cotton for domestic textile production by 2040. African countries have become key sourcing destinations as Bangladesh seeks to reduce its over-dependence on India.

Meanwhile, Aissatou Diallo, executive director of the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF), Executive Secretariat at the WTO, advised Bangladesh to improve its investment climate and diversify exports ahead of its graduation to a developing nation this November.

She said the EIF would continue providing technical and financial support for five years to enhance the competitiveness of Bangladeshi entrepreneurs.