Economists have urged the government to adopt a conservative approach in preparing the upcoming budget for the next fiscal year, taking into consideration the impact of the US-Israel war on Iran, implementing electoral pledges, and boosting investment.

The call came at the first pre-budget meeting with Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury and senior officials of other relevant government agencies at the state guest house Padma on Saturday night.

Among the economists, Salehuddin Ahmed, former finance adviser to the interim government, Debapriya Bhattacharya, distinguished fellow of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), Fahmida Khatun, executive director of CPD, Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (Sanem), and Zakir Ahmed Khan, former finance secretary, were present.

Speaking to The Daily Star, they noted that the first budget of the new government is crucial, as it will set the trajectory for how the economy will be managed over the next five years.

While Bangladesh’s budget preparation process typically begins in August-September, they said this budget should not be a routine exercise. Instead, it must reflect electoral commitments, prevailing global and domestic challenges, and long-term economic goals.

The economist pointed out that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could exert multifaceted pressure on Bangladesh’s economy.

Volatility in global oil markets may drive up import costs, while the risk of supply disruptions remains. This could increase the burden of fuel subsidies, posing a significant challenge to budget implementation.

At the same time, remittance inflows may face headwinds if employment opportunities shrink or incomes decline for migrant workers in the region.

Against this backdrop, several economists underscored that there is little room for overly optimistic assumptions in budget planning. Instead, expenditure frameworks must reflect realistic revenue mobilisation capacity, pressures on foreign exchange reserves and inflation risks.

According to meeting sources, the finance minister brought up long-standing concerns over lack of transparency, cost overrun, and project selection and implementation during the meeting.

He sought suggestions regarding these concerns from the economists.

Economists, in response, suggested including a low number of projects in the budget to ensure smooth implementation.

They also stressed the need to strengthen, streamline and ensure accountability in the formulation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP).

Without addressing these weaknesses, they cautioned, the effectiveness of public investment will remain limited.

No move should be taken to reduce the policy rate at this stage, most economists suggested, as inflation remains high and could intensify further with rising energy and import costs.

Sharing his experience as adviser of the previous interim government, Salehuddin Ahmed stressed that balancing political commitments with economic realities remains a key challenge. He suggested continuing the reform initiatives.

Referring to family cards and expanded safety net schemes, economists suggested streamlining the existing social safety net programmes alongside those electoral promises.

They also called for prioritising restoring confidence in the private sector, stressing the need for improving the investment climate, ensuring policy continuity and reducing administrative bottlenecks.

In the current uncertain environment, investors remain cautious, making it crucial for the government to provide clear and credible policy signals, they noted.

Tax reform featured prominently in the discussion. Structural weaknesses in the National Board of Revenue (NBR), limited tax collection capacity and persistent tax evasion were identified as major concerns.

Economists stressed that expanding the tax base and undertaking administrative reforms are essential for improving revenue mobilisation. They also called for modernisation, greater automation and enhanced accountability within the NBR.

Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, economic adviser to the prime minister, Md Mostaqur Rahman, governor of Bangladesh Bank, and Md Khairuzzaman Mozumder, secretary of the Finance Division, Monzur Ahmed, member of the General Economic Division of the Planning Commission, Nazma Mobarek, secretary of the Financial Institutions Division, and AK Enamul Haque, director general of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), were also present at the meeting.

Bangladesh can absorb the economic shocks stemming from the ongoing Middle East war for the next few months, as it holds adequate foreign exchange reserves to meet rising import bills despite higher energy prices, central bank governor Md Mostaqur Rahman said today (29 March).

In a view-exchange meeting with senior journalists, the newly appointed governor expressed cautious confidence in the country's external position.

He, however, maintained a firm stance on monetary policy, stating that cutting interest rates would be "unwise" at this stage due to persistently high inflation, prioritising price stability over short-term growth.

The governor also pledged to keep the financial sector free from political influence and to strengthen rural economic activities as part of broader efforts to stabilise the economy.

Deputy governors echoed similar views at the meeting. Deputy Governor Md Kabir Ahmed said Bangladesh's gross foreign exchange reserves currently stand at around $35 billion, sufficient to cover several months of import payments.

"Moreover, the Bangladesh Bank expects about $1.5 billion in loan disbursements from the International Monetary Fund by June and is working to secure another $2 billion credit line to ease pressure on the balance of payments," he said.

BB governor holds talks with IMF on advancing loan programme

The governor said the government is seeking cheaper fuel through bilateral deals or direct grants from leading oil exporters. Consequently, the prime minister's foreign affairs adviser is visiting various nations to negotiate these terms.

Furthermore, the Economic Relations Division (ERD) has finalised a $1 billion budget support package from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), said the governor.

However, senior executives at the central bank fear that a prolonged war could trigger significant economic risks and inflationary pressures.

Deputy Governor Habibur Rahman noted that with crude oil prices having now nearly doubled, import costs are expected to rise proportionately.

"In this regard, if the safety of Bangladeshi vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz can be guaranteed, it will be possible to reduce these additional costs," he said.

The governor, however, said the fuel imports Bangladesh procures under long-term G2G (government-to-government) agreements are sourced at the rates specified in those contracts. He added that the government's efforts are ongoing to ensure that these essential supplies continue uninterrupted.

Bangladesh Bank spokesperson Arief Hossain said a significant number of migrant workers in the Middle East risk losing their jobs and are returning home, raising concerns about a decline in remittances.

He also said, "If the IMF imposes conditions on the government to eliminate fuel subsidies, Bangladesh will have to comply. In such a scenario, inflation could surge significantly."

BB pauses dollar purchase to avoid exchange rate volatility as Iran war fallout looms

Bangladesh Bank officials noted that despite these stringent conditions, failing to secure the IMF loan would jeopardise the country's ability to obtain further credit from the World Bank and the ADB.

Deputy Governor Zakir Hossain Chowdhury said if international fuel oil prices continue to rise over a prolonged period, it will create additional subsidy pressure on the government.

Deputy Governor Kabir Ahmed said he anticipates that import demand would remain subdued this monsoon as well, which will play a vital role in maintaining the stability of both the reserves and the exchange rate.

Highlighting the priorities of the Bangladesh Bank, the governor said ensuring that the financial sector remains free from political influence is the top priority.

"The second priority is the recovery of stolen assets, for which meetings are being held every few days. Most banks have already signed non-disclosure agreements, and the remaining ones are expected to follow suit," he said.

The governor noted that unless GDP growth reaches 5% or higher, it will be difficult to attract foreign investment. To generate employment, the disbursement of loans from a Tk600 crore startup fund is set to commence this coming June, he said.

Furthermore, steps will be taken to stimulate demand in rural areas to keep the economy dynamic through increased domestic consumption, said the governor.

Lending banks have also been instructed to take the necessary measures to reopen factories that were closed either during or before the tenure of the interim government, he said.

The governor said, "We are working to decentralise Bangladesh's banking sector; specifically, banks will be instructed to increase loan disbursements towards agri-based industries and agri-technology.

"We are also considering the formation of a subsidy fund for the SME sector. Our reserves are currently in a safe zone, and we do not intend to see any significant depreciation of the exchange rate."

Stating that there is no scope to retreat from the establishment of the Sammilito Islami Bank, the governor affirmed that its operations will be expedited. "The chairman and managing director will be appointed soon, and I am adamant that this new bank remains entirely free from any political influence," he added.

Noting that the Bangladesh Bank held a meeting with the country's leading industrial conglomerates last Wednesday to understand their challenges, the governor stated that any issues pertaining to the central bank would be resolved.

The governor announced that a single, standardised QR code for all financial transactions will be established across the country by 30 June. "The use of this Bangla QR will become mandatory from 1 July."

He added, "This initiative aims to accelerate cashless transactions, which in turn will play a vital role in boosting revenue collection."

Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir has urged the continuation of special support measures for a defined period after countries graduate from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category to help maintain economic stability.

Speaking on the third day of the ongoing WTO Ministerial Conference, the minister participated in various thematic sessions and emphasised Bangladesh's position on key global trade issues, including WTO reforms.

He also called for the adoption of an LDC graduation-related package at MC14 to support countries like Bangladesh in the post-graduation phase.

Muktadir stressed the importance of ensuring an effective, predictable, and rules-based dispute settlement system, called for the prompt restoration of a fully functional two-tier dispute settlement mechanism, including the revival of the Appellate Body, noting that a strong and impartial system is essential to safeguard the interests of developing and LDC countries.

On fisheries subsidies, the minister highlighted that Bangladesh's contribution to harmful subsidies is close to zero, while major fishing nations account for the bulk, urged stricter discipline on harmful subsidies alongside ensuring Special and Differential Treatment (S&DT) for developing and LDC countries.

He also called for full exemption for small-scale and marginal fishers to ensure fairness and sustainability.

At the conference, Bangladesh announced its accession as the 129th member to the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement, marking its first participation in a plurilateral agreement under the WTO framework.

The minister expressed hope that this move would improve Bangladesh's investment climate and send a positive signal to foreign investors.

The step was welcomed by several partners, including the European Union, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, and Hong Kong.

On agriculture, Muktadir underscored the sector's critical role in ensuring food security, livelihoods, and poverty reduction, called for the swift resolution of long-standing issues such as public stockholding, special safeguard mechanisms, and trade-distorting subsidies by developed countries. He reiterated that S&DT must remain central to agricultural negotiations.

Reaffirming Bangladesh's strong support for the LDC package, the minister emphasized the importance of a smooth and sustainable transition, said special benefits should continue for a specified period after graduation to help maintain economic stability and urged adoption of the package at MC14.

Bangladesh also supported extending the moratorium on non-violation and situation complaints (NVSCs) under the TRIPS Agreement until the next ministerial conference. The minister noted that such complaints could undermine policy space for developing countries, particularly in areas like public health and education, and called for a permanent solution.

He further said WTO reform efforts must be grounded in its core principles of transparency, inclusiveness, and fairness, adding that adherence to these values would help preserve trust and credibility in the multilateral trading system.

The minister reaffirmed Bangladesh's commitment to a fair, inclusive, and development-oriented multilateral trading system, expressing hope that MC14 outcomes would guide future reforms while ensuring the interests of developing and LDC countries are protected.

India's Vedanta will break up into five listed companies early next month under a years-long restructuring programme aimed at reducing debt, the Financial Times reported on Saturday, citing an interview with Chairman Anil Agarwal.

A tribunal approved the oil-to-metals conglomerate's plan to split into five listed entities in December.

After the demerger, the company will operate as Vedanta Limited, housing its base metals business. Vedanta Aluminium, Talwandi Sabo Power, Vedanta Steel and Iron, and Malco Energy will be the four other entities.

The combined market capitalisation of the five companies would be much higher than the conglomerate's current $27 billion, Agarwal told FT.

A private parent company controlled by Agarwal will retain about half of the shares in each of the new entities, he said.

The plan, first floated in 2023, was opposed by the government which feared a break-up would hinder its ability to recover money owed.

Chief Financial Officer Ajay Goel, in an interview to Reuters in January, said Vedanta aims to list the four planned demerged units on Indian exchanges by the middle of May.

Global oil prices surged and Asian stock markets fell sharply on Monday as the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran intensified, raising concerns over economic disruption and a broader regional escalation.

Brent crude climbed above $115 per barrel, up from around $72 on 27 February before the conflict deepened, amid a near-standstill of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies. The disruption follows Iranian threats against vessels passing through the waterway, fuelling volatility in global energy markets, says the BBC.

The impact has extended beyond the Middle East. In Australia, the states of Victoria and Tasmania introduced free public transport measures to help commuters cope with rising fuel costs.

Asian financial markets reacted strongly to the developments. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell more than 4.5% in early trading, while South Korea's Kospi dropped 3.5%, reflecting investor concerns over the economic fallout from the conflict. Analysts have also warned that the United Kingdom could face the most significant hit to economic growth among major economies as a direct consequence of the war.

The conflict has widened geographically, with Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launching strikes against Israel, underscoring the growing involvement of regional proxies.

Tensions have also escalated through direct threats and military positioning. Tehran has warned it could target the homes and universities of US and Israeli officials. Meanwhile, an additional 3,500 US troops have arrived in the Middle East, prompting Iran's parliament speaker to say their forces are "waiting for American soldiers" and that they are "waiting" as US forces deploy to the region.

Attacks on infrastructure have added to concerns about further disruption. Iranian strikes have hit major industrial sites, including aluminium plants in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, causing injuries. Separately, a US radar jet stationed at a base in Saudi Arabia was recently photographed with significant damage.

The conflict, now in its fourth week, has raised questions about Washington's strategy. "Trump is waging war based on instinct and it isn't working," Jeremy Bowen, the BBC's international editor, said in an analysis one month after the conflict began.

While US troop deployments to the region have increased, officials have not confirmed whether they will be used for ground combat, a move that would mark a significant escalation.

Bangladesh's energy sector faces a "perfect storm" of global shocks and domestic inefficiencies, adding $760-830 million in monthly import costs in early 2026, according to Lion City Advisory Research.

Their report, Bangladesh Energy Sector: Crisis, Cost & Transition, warns that rising global fuel prices following the Iran-Israel conflict have pushed the country toward a "fiscal emergency." Brent crude surged to $105 per barrel in four weeks, while spot LNG prices jumped 125% to $22.51 per MMBtu.

Power sector inefficiencies, especially at the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), exacerbate the crisis. Installed capacity has grown fivefold to 28,919 MW since 2006, yet nearly 63% remains idle, generating annual capacity payments of Tk38,000 crore.

Blended generation costs now range Tk18-22 per kWh, more than doubling monthly subsidy needs to Tk7,500-9,500 crore.

The "Bapex Paradox" highlights domestic gas underperformance: only eight of 34 planned wells were drilled in FY2025, increasing reliance on costly LNG. Each additional 10 million cubic feet/day of domestic gas could save $82 million annually. Industrial energy efficiency could yield 50 bcf of "free LNG," replicating 13-27 new wells.

Renewable energy is more cost-effective: recent utility-scale solar bids stand at 8.27 US cents/kWh (Tk9.09), far below diesel (Tk32.53) or heavy fuel oil (Tk26). Policy uncertainty, including the IA framework cancellation, stalls private investment and 5,200MW of solar projects.

The report advocates the Bangladesh Energy Independence Program (BEIP): solar expansion, diesel replacement, and industrial efficiency to achieve 60-70% renewables by 2040 and potentially export $500 million-$1 billion annually. "At $105 oil per barrel, Bangladesh cannot afford not to transition," the report concludes.

Yields on treasury bills showed a mixed trend on Sunday as banks channelled excess liquidity into short-term government securities, reflecting subdued private sector credit demand and cautious market sentiment.

The shift in investment preference comes amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and slowing credit growth, prompting banks to favour safer, shorter-tenure instruments over longer-term exposure.

The cut-off yield, generally known as the interest rate, on 91-day T-bills fell to 9.78 per cent from 9.89 per cent earlier, while the yield on 182-day T-bills declined to 9.97 per cent from 10.00 per cent.

On the other hand, the yield on 364-day T-bills remained unchanged at 10.00 per cent, according to the auction results.

On the day, the government raised Tk 82.50 billion by issuing three types of T-bills to partially finance its budget deficit.

"Most banks preferred to invest their excess liquidity in risk-free government securities due to lower private sector credit demand amid ongoing geopolitical tensions," a senior official of the Bangladesh Bank (BB) told The Financial Express (FE).

Meanwhile, private sector credit growth fell to 6.03 per cent year-on-year in January 2026 from 6.10 per cent a month earlier, according to the central bank's latest figures.

"Banks deposited Tk 115 billion with the central bank under the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) on Sunday to manage their funds efficiently," the official said, explaining the liquidity situation in the market.

He also predicted that the current trend in yields on government securities may continue in the coming weeks.

Currently, four T-bills are traded through auctions to manage government borrowings from the banking system. These instruments have maturities of 14 days, 91 days, 182 days and 364 days.

In addition, five government bonds with tenures of two, five, 10, 15 and 20 years are traded in the market.

The government has ruled out any increase in tax rates, opting instead to expand the tax base and curb evasion to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio, said Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, economic and planning adviser to the prime minister.

The focus remains on boosting investment and improving compliance to enhance collection, he said at a press briefing yesterday at the National Board of Revenue (NBR) headquarters in Dhaka.

“We are not increasing tax rates. Our focus is on expanding the overall economic base so that revenue grows naturally,” Titumir said.

“The government will not increase the burden of domestic or foreign debt as in the past. Instead, we aim to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio without imposing additional pressure on taxpayers already strained by prolonged inflation.”

Three task forces are working day and night to raise revenue without increasing tax rates, he said, adding that the government is aiming to achiev an all-time-high revenue in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year.

“We have three months remaining in the current fiscal year. Within this period, we are optimistic that in the fourth quarter we will achieve higher revenue targets than at any previous time,” he said.

To that end, he informed that the government is planning to “introduce performance-based incentives for officials and reduce wastage” instead of continuing to grant “group-based tax privileges.”

He noted that rising poverty levels make it imperative to prioritise social protection spending.

Several new and expanded programmes have already been rolled out, including support schemes targeting women, religious service holders, and other vulnerable groups.

Against this backdrop, the government has outlined a three-pronged strategy: keeping the budget deficit under control, reducing reliance on domestic borrowing, and increasing revenue through economic expansion.

Policymakers view investment as the key driver of sustainable growth.

“Increased investment will lead to higher production, which will create jobs. Higher employment will, in turn, raise incomes and government revenue,” Titumir noted.

Stating that the government inherited a “destroyed economy,” he said revenue figures in the past were often manipulated. With the updated iBAS system, real-time data will now be available.

He also described the decision to split the NBR into two entities as logical, adding that discussions would be held to move forward on the matter.

Titumir further said that while fuel and gas prices were increased repeatedly before the interim government, the current administration -- mindful of inflation -- will avoid such measures.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Friday that it has reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan to unlock a new $1.2 billion package as part of its support programmes for the country.

The South Asian nation is one of the largest debtors to the IMF after Argentina and Ukraine.

The IMF in a statement praised the Pakistani authorities’ commitment to “pursuing sound and prudent macroeconomic policies to preserve the recent gains in macro-financial stabilisation, while deepening structural reforms to accelerate growth and strengthening social protection to mitigate the impact of volatile energy prices on the most vulnerable.”

The disbursement is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, according to the fund’s statement.

The country’s merchandised shipments of processed foods and agricultural products to Gulf nations are facing a serious shock from the war in the Middle East, with freight charges soaring fourfold and new orders plunging.

Before the US and Israel launched the war on Iran on February 28, sending a container of processed foods cost around $1,500. Manufacturers say rerouting has now pushed the price to roughly $6,500.

“Besides, the volume of orders from Middle Eastern markets has declined by around 40 percent compared to pre-war levels,” said Ahsan Khan Chowdhury, chairman and chief executive officer of PRAN-RFL Group.

Bangladesh exports a wide range of products to the Gulf, including spices, biscuits, puffed rice, chanachur, noodles, mustard oil, beverages and other snacks. The main customers are Bangladeshi migrant workers in the region and members of the diaspora.

Official data puts the size of the market at more than $100 million. Major destinations include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.

Chowdhury, the CEO of PRAN-RFL Group, one of the largest food and beverage brands in Bangladesh, said shipments to Middle Eastern countries were previously routed through five to six ports.

“But after the Strait of Hormuz was closed and other ports came under retaliatory attacks, exporters were left with only Jeddah port operational,” he said. “This pressure on the Saudi Arabian port on the Red Sea has largely contributed to the rise in freight charges.”

Apart from these issues, he added that sending products to Middle Eastern markets now takes longer.

“Although factory production has not yet been affected, if the current situation persists, a reduction in production will likely become unavoidable in the near future,” he commented.

Rezaul Hoque Khondaker, manager for international marketing at local food processor Bombay Sweets and Company Limited, said the company suspended Middle East orders and halted production in late February, anticipating further escalation after the attack on Iran.

“At that time, only one shipment had already left Chattogram via Colombo for Qatar, and recalling it was not viable,” he said. “Despite shrinking margins, we proceeded with delivery to minimise losses and sought partial compensation from importers.”

Sayedul Azhar Sarwar, head of business at Danish Foods Ltd, a concern of Partex Star Group, said rising freight rates have introduced a new “war cost” that is significantly increasing overall expenses.

“Importers are increasingly reluctant to accept deliveries as higher costs erode competitiveness, particularly for goods already in transit,” he said.

He estimated that overall costs have risen by at least 15 percent, prompting many buyers to delay orders in the hope of more stable conditions.

He also said that job uncertainty among migrant workers is beginning to affect consumption, which could dampen demand for non-essential food items.

Luthful Kabir Shaheen, director for business development at City Group, said shipment schedules had become increasingly unpredictable, causing delays not only in the Middle East but also in Europe and the US, with transit times extending by around 10 days.

He, however, said production remains broadly stable, with companies adapting by routing goods through alternative Gulf hubs such as Dubai. “Despite steady demand for essential food items, the export process has become more complex, requiring greater operational flexibility.”

Similar to City Group, Sameera Rahman, head of export at Meghna Group of Industries, said their output for Middle Eastern markets remains steady.

“Our manufacturing operations are fully functional, supported by coordinated supply chains and careful resource planning,” she said. “But logistics remain under strain.”

She added that many shipping lines have paused new bookings and cancelled existing ones, disrupting dispatch schedules, while rising risk premiums were further driving up costs.

“War risk surcharges have nearly doubled freight costs on some routes, including shipments to Oman,” added Rahman.

According to the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), processed food exports to the Middle East stand at $40-$45 million annually, while the broader agricultural sector earned $65.24 million in the fiscal year 2024-25.

Sixty-six World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries, representing 70 percent of global trade, have adopted a pathway to bring into force electronic commerce (e-Commerce) agreement through interim arrangements.

The adoption to bring the agreement into force via interim arrangements took place on March 28 at the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14) in Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Bangladesh has yet to officially clarify its stance, with Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir saying nations attending the summit offered varying opinions. While some favoured a four-year extension of the moratorium and others two years, very few sought a permanent moratorium.

Bangladesh has not spoken on this issue yet, he added.

Under the interim mechanism, participating members will begin applying the rules among themselves once 45 of the 66 signatories ratify the deal.

“This step marks a significant milestone. With digital transactions accounting for over 60 percent of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), there is an urgent need to implement global digital trade rules that allow businesses and consumers to seize the benefits of digital trade,” the WTO said in a joint statement.

The agreement encourages legal frameworks that recognise electronic transactions and treat electronic and paper-based information as legal equivalents.

It also seeks to establish common principles for the interoperability of e-invoicing and the legal recognition of electronic transferable records, such as bills of lading and promissory notes.

Data from the WTO and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development suggest that failing to implement the agreement leaves approximately $159 billion worth of trade “on the table” annually. If implemented globally, the pact could boost global GDP by $8.7 trillion by 2040.

Major economies that have accepted the interim agreement include Singapore, Australia, Japan, the European Union, Canada, and China.

“By moving forward with the E-Commerce Agreement, participating economies are helping to establish a shared regulatory framework that can lower costs and unlock new opportunities,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in the statement.

The agreement is not applicable to Bangladesh as the country remains in favour of continuing the long-standing moratorium on imposing customs duties on electronic transmissions, said Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), who is attending the conference.

“It means only the signatory countries will apply the agreement among themselves. Non-signatory countries like Bangladesh will continue to enjoy the moratorium until the agreement is adopted by the majority of WTO members,” he said.

Rahman said Bangladesh should cautiously observe the development before making a decision, adding that with the massive digitalisation of global trade, a significant volume of transactions now occurs digitally.

As a major importer and exporter of commodities and services, the withdrawal of the e-commerce moratorium could increase business costs for Bangladesh, he said.

The issue of electronic commerce was first raised at the Second Ministerial Conference in 1998, where members adopted a declaration to not impose tariffs on digital transmissions. At the 13th Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi in 2024, members had agreed to maintain the moratorium until MC14 or March 31, 2026.

Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry is facing mounting pressure as the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran disrupts global supply chains, threatening the availability of raw materials, pushing up freight costs and raising concerns over production stability.

The issue was highlighted at the inaugural session of the 17th Asia Pharma Expo 2026 and Asia Lab Expo 2026, held at the Bangladesh-China Friendship Exhibition Center in Dhaka’s Purbachal yesterday.

Health Minister Sardar Md Sakhawat Hossain, who inaugurated the three-day exposition as the chief guest, said the government is closely monitoring the evolving situation and stressed that ensuring access to quality medicines remains a top priority.

He also reiterated a zero-tolerance stance on corruption and irregularities in the sector.

Industry leaders said the Gulf region unrest has already started to affect the import of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and other essential inputs, many of which rely on complex shipping routes through the Middle East.

“The war has disrupted logistics, increased freight costs and caused shipment delays,” said Abdul Muktadir, president of the Bangladesh Association of Pharmaceutical Industries (BAPI).

“Rerouting of sea and air cargo is making imports more expensive and unpredictable.”

The disruption is particularly significant for Bangladesh, which remains heavily dependent on imported raw materials despite its strong domestic manufacturing base. Prolonged instability could drive up production costs and put pressure on medicine prices in the coming months, industry insiders said.

According to BAPI, the industry now meets nearly 98 percent of domestic demand and exports medicines to more than 120 countries, reflecting steady expansion over the past decade.

Bangladesh currently exports around $300 million worth of medicines annually and is emerging as a growing player in the global pharmaceutical market.

However, sustaining this momentum will depend on the sector’s ability to navigate external shocks and ensure an uninterrupted supply of inputs.

Muktadir stressed the urgency of accelerating the development of a domestic API industry to reduce reliance on imports.

“The current situation highlights our vulnerability. Policy support is essential to strengthen local capacity,” he said.

He warned that if the conflict persists, rising freight costs and supply uncertainties could erode profit margins and disrupt production cycles, with smaller manufacturers likely to face greater pressure.

Despite the challenges, Bangladesh has so far managed to keep medicine prices relatively lower than in neighbouring countries, supported by strong local production and regulatory oversight, he added.

Md Shameem Haidar, director general of the Directorate General of Drug Administration, said the industry continues to maintain quality and effectiveness, although global disruptions pose new risks.

Industry insiders estimate the market size has already exceeded $3.5 billion, which could surpass $6 billion by 2026, driven by annual growth of 15 to 18 percent.

However, they cautioned that geopolitical tensions could test the sector’s resilience in the near term.

Embracing the slogan "Go Digital, Go Green", NCC Bank has launched a fully digital and eco-friendly savings account named "NCC NeoX" under its retail banking portfolio.

The bank said the initiative's main objective is to promote sustainable banking practices while ensuring modern, convenient digital banking services for customers.

Through the NCC NeoX account, customers can open accounts entirely online, complete e-KYC verification, and use a recyclable debit card. Funds deposited in the account will be invested in green initiatives, including renewable energy, waste management and sustainable agriculture.

The service was inaugurated at the bank's annual business conference by Chairman Md Nurun Newaz Salim.

The event was attended by Vice-Chairman Engineer Abdus Salam; Director and former chairman Amjadul Ferdous Chowdhury; Director and former vice-chairman Tanzina Ali; Director Syed Asif Nizamuddin; Director and Chairman of the Executive Committee Khairul Alam Chaklader; Directors Md Moinuddin, Mohammed Sazzad Un Newaz, Shamima Newaz, Morshedul Alam Chaklader and Nahid Banu; Independent Director Meer Sajed-Ul-Basher, FCA; Independent Director and Chairman of the Audit Committee Md Amirul Islam, FCS, FCA; Managing Director M Shamsul Arefin; Additional Managing Director M Khurshed Alam; Deputy Managing Director Md Habibur Rahman; and Head of the Retail Banking Unit S M Tanvir Hasan.

Md Nurun Newaz Salim said the bank remains committed to advancing environmentally friendly banking practices and contributing to global sustainable development goals.

He said, "The NCC NeoX Savings Account offers customers an important opportunity to engage in green financing. Through this, they can enjoy modern digital banking benefits while also contributing to environmental protection."

He added that the launch of the account reaffirmed NCC Bank's commitment to innovation, sustainable development, and responsible banking, and would help build a greener, more digitally empowered future.

Managing Director M Shamsul Arefin said, "The NCC NeoX account reflects the bank's dedication to digital transformation and sustainable banking."

He said the service would not only provide customers with a modern digital banking experience, but also make them partners in long-term economic and environmental well-being by supporting environmentally friendly initiatives.

Customers of the NCC NeoX account will enjoy digital banking facilities, competitive interest rates, free internet banking and SMS alerts, along with recognition as green banking partners.

Talks to reform the World Trade Organization and extend a moratorium to not impose customs duties on electronic transmissions such as digital downloads entered their final day on Sunday with no breakthrough yet in sight, diplomats said.

Trade ministers are working at a WTO meeting in Cameroon to close the gap between the United States and India over extending the e-commerce moratorium due to expire this month, three diplomats told Reuters.

Extending the moratorium is seen as a test for the WTO's relevance, following a year of tariff-fuelled trade turmoil and major disruptions due to the Middle East conflict.

India indicated it would accept an extension of two years, three diplomats said. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, however, has said Washington was not interested in a temporary extension to the ban, only a permanent one.

Business leaders say an extension is critical to guarantee predictability, fearing duties could otherwise be introduced.

There are suggestions the US could accept a "pathway to permanence" with a 10-year extension, a Western diplomat said. A second said a five- to 10-year extension was being explored, while a third indicated it was unlikely all WTO members would agree to go beyond two years.

A new draft document seen by Reuters on Saturday evening proposes support for developing country members, as well as a review clause.

Extending the moratorium permanently would give the US confidence to remain "fully engaged" in the trade body, the US Ambassador to the WTO, Joseph Barloon, told Reuters ahead of the talks.

"If the moratorium does not get extended, the US will use it as an excuse to beat the WTO on the head," a fourth senior diplomat said.

Reforms

The debate comes amid efforts to rework WTO rules to render subsidy use more transparent, make decision-taking easier and potentially rethink the so-called Most-Favoured-Nation principle that ensures members extend all trade benefits equally to one another.

The US and the EU argue China in particular has taken advantage of current rules to their detriment.

Meanwhile, decision-making under the consensus-based system has often been stymied by individual countries' objections.

A handful of countries are opposing a detailed work plan on reforms, while most members support it, two senior diplomats said.

"We are frustrated that we are spending a lot of time talking about process, when we want to get on with the real work, reforming the WTO," a Western diplomat said.

Including into WTO rules an agreement reached by a subset of members aimed at boosting investment in developing countries also remains blocked by India, which said plurilateral accords risk eroding the body's founding principles.

Gold demand in India saw a slight ‌uptick this week as softer bullion prices attracted some buyers, though many remained cautious and held off for further price drop, while premiums in China narrowed as physical demand slowed.

Bullion dealers in India offered discounts of up to $61 ​per ounce over official domestic gold prices this week, down from as much as $75 last ​week. These prices include 6 percent import duty and 3 percent sales tax.

Meanwhile, spot gold experienced volatile trading, flitting between $4,100 and $4,600 per ounce. Prices briefly touched a four-month low of $4,097.99 ​on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and growing expectations of hawkish US monetary policy.

“Falling prices are ​helping revive interest in gold. However, prices remain well above levels seen last year, and many buyers are postponing purchases in hopes of a bigger fall,” a Kolkata-based jeweller said.

Gold prices in India were trading around 141,000 rupees ​per 10 grams on Friday, after rising to 169,880 rupees earlier this month. Volatility in the rupee ​and global prices left jewellers sidelined, with many waiting until the financial year-end to make fresh purchases, said a ‌Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank.

In Singapore , gold was sold at prices ranging from a discount of $0.50 to premiums of $3.50 an ounce.

Singapore set out plans on Friday to turn the city state into a gold trading hub for the whole of Asia, with regulators and industry players working together to strengthen the ​market’s trading, clearing and ​storage infrastructure.

In top consumer ⁠China, bullion traded at premiums of $14-$18 an ounce over global benchmark prices this week, narrowing from a $10-$22 premium last week.

“Physical demand has cooled, reflected in lower ​premiums, but the market remains underpinned by central bank buying and quota ​restrictions,” said ⁠Bernard Sin, regional director of Greater China at MKS PAMP, adding that the unresolved Middle East conflict has tarnished gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset.

“China’s divergence is clear: while global headwinds weigh on gold, domestic ⁠resilience persists, ​sustained by policy, cultural demand, and structural supply constraints.”

In ​Hong Kong, physical gold traded at par to premiums of $1.90, while in Japan , gold was sold at par with spot prices.

Two liquefied petroleum gas tankers, BW Elm and BW Tyr, are crossing the ​Strait of Hormuz bound for India, according to ‌ship tracking data from LSEG and Kpler.

The US-Israeli war against Iran has all but halted shipping through the strait, but Iran ​said this week that "non-hostile vessels" may transit the waterway ​if they coordinate with Iranian authorities.

The two India-flagged ⁠vessels have crossed the Gulf area and are in ​the eastern Strait of Hormuz, the data showed.

India is ​gradually moving its stranded LPG cargoes out from the strait, with four LPG tankers moved so far - Shivalik, Nanda Devi, Pine Gas, and Jag ​Vasant.

As of Friday, 20 Indian-flagged ships including five ​LPG carriers were stranded in the Gulf, Rajesh Kumar Sinha, special ‌secretary ⁠in the federal shipping ministry, said.

LPG carriers Jag Vikram, Green Asha and Green Sanvi are still in the western Strait of Hormuz, LSEG data show.

India, the world's second-largest ​LPG importer, ​is battling its worst ⁠gas crisis in decades, with the government cutting supplies for industries to shield ​households from any shortage of cooking gas.

The country ​consumed ⁠33.15 million metric tons of LPG, or cooking gas, last year, with imports accounting for about 60 percent of demand. ⁠About ​90 percent of those imports came ​from the Middle East.

India is also loading LPG onto its empty vessels stranded ​in the Gulf.

Bank Asia PLC, a listed private bank, is set to acquire the Bangladesh operations of Bank Alfalah in a deal valued at Tk 580 crore, equivalent to approximately $47.5 million.

According to a disclosure published by Bank Alfalah at the Pakistan Stock Exchange, the decision was approved by 96.5 percent of its shareholders at the annual general meeting held on March 26.

The acquisition is contingent upon approval from the Bangladesh Bank, the State Bank of Pakistan, and other relevant regulatory bodies, as well as consent from Bank Asia’s shareholders. To this end, Bank Asia will hold an extraordinary general meeting on April 12.

In May last year, Bank Asia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Bank Alfalah to acquire its Bangladesh operations, subject to regulatory approval and completion of legal formalities.

The sale process began in April last year. Legal formalities for the transfer of assets and liabilities are still pending, while core banking system migration must also be aligned.

The audit and valuation of Bank Alfalah’s Bangladesh operations were conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Bangladesh, a UK-based multinational tax, audit, and consulting firm.

Bank Asia, which began its journey in 1999, is a pioneer in agent banking services in Bangladesh. If the acquisition is completed, it will be the third such takeover by Bank Asia in its 26 years of operation.

In 2001, the bank acquired the operations of the Canada-based Bank of Nova Scotia in Dhaka -- the first of its kind in Bangladesh’s banking history, according to Bank Asia’s website. It later took over the Bangladesh operations of Muslim Commercial Bank Ltd, a renowned Pakistani bank.

Bank Alfalah is incorporated in Pakistan, with its main capital base coming from Abu Dhabi Investment Funds. Over 51 percent of its equity is held by the Abu Dhabi Royal Family. The bank began operations in Bangladesh in 2005 and currently has seven branches in the country.

Stocks at the Dhaka bourse declined further today (29 March) as investor sentiment weakened amid the escalating US-Israeli war on Iran.

Since the war began on 28 February, most trading sessions have witnessed sell-offs, dragging down share prices and overall market capitalisation, although a brief rebound was recorded in the first session after the Eid holiday on 25 March when the benchmark index gained 31 points.

Yesterday, the DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, fell by 44 points to close at 5,272, as investors adopted a cautious stance, leading to declines in 63% of traded stocks.

Besides that, DSES, the Shariah index declined 7 points to 1,066, and DS30, the blue-chip index, fell 21 points to 1,998.

Despite cautious sentiment in the market, turnover on the DSE surged 7% to Tk646 crore, while market capitalisation – the total value of companies' outstanding shares – dropped by Tk3,268 crore to Tk6.95 lakh crore.

Of the traded stocks, 114 advanced, 250 declined and 30 remained unchanged.

EBL Securities, in its daily market commentary, said the capital bourse failed to extend the recovery momentum as investors continued their cautious stance amid lingering uncertainties stemming from the Middle East conflict, triggering a broad-based sell-off across the trading board.

"The market opened on a dismal note as selling pressure remained predominant from the opening bell. Despite an attempt for partial recovery from the initial plunge, the market largely remained under sustained downward pressure throughout the session, with most scrips closing in negative territory," it said.

On the sectoral front, the Pharmaceutical and the Chemical sectors issues exerted the highest by 17.6% in total turnover, followed by the Engineering sector 12.9% and the Bank 9.9%.

Sectors displayed mixed returns, out of which the Paper, the Ceramic and the Mutual Fund exhibited the most positive returns on the bourse.

Bangladesh Autocars topped the gainer chart with its share price surging by 6.91% to Tk185.1 each, followed by BD Thai Foods by 9.30% to Tk18.8 each, PHP Mutual Fund One by 9.09% to Tk3.6 each, Techno Drugs by 8.91% to Tk33 each and IFIC First Mutual Fund by 8.33% to Tk3.9 each.

While on the loser list, Prime Textile was at the top as its share price fell 6.86% to Tk19 each, followed by Sea Pearl Beach Resorts by 5.14% to Tk38.7 each, Orion Infusion by 4.61% to Tk343 each, ICB Agrani First Mutual Fund by 4.34% to Tk6.6 each, and Phoenix Finance by 4.25% to Tk4.5 each.

The port city bourse, Chittagong Stock Exchange, also settled in a negative zone. The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) and All Share Price Index (CASPI) lost 165.4 points and 245.9 points, respectively.

Major stock indexes eased on Thursday as Brent oil futures rose above $105 a barrel, with Iran's denial of any talks with the US dimming hopes of a quick resolution to the nearly one-month-long Middle East war.

Global debt markets also sold off, pushing yields higher, while safe-haven buying boosted the US dollar.

Prospects of a prolonged war in the Middle East fanned worries about energy supply disruptions. Oil and European natural gas rose, with Brent futuresLCOc1 up $4.77 at $106.99 a barrel and US crude futures CLc1 up at $93.64.

US President Donald Trump warned Iran on Thursday to "get serious" about a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had earlier said Tehran was reviewing the US proposal but that there were no talks on winding down the war. Iran on Thursday launched multiple waves of missiles at Israel.

The war, triggered by US–Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, has rattled global markets and effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

Stocks fell "as oil prices resumed their upward climb", said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

"Unfortunately, we're in a market that's being driven by oil prices. The rhetoric back and forth is continuing, and until talks begin, the market is going to be subject to the price of oil," he said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell 75.50 points, or 0.19 percent, to 46,342.69, the S&P 500 fell 43.59 points, or 0.68 percent, to 6,547.14 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC fell 216.95 points, or 1.02 percent, to 21,705.16.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS dropped 6.75 points, or 0.68 percent, to 988.71. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.64 percent.

Japan's Nikkei ended down 0.3 percent, while worries over rising energy costs hammered South Korea's KOSPI, which slumped 3.2 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.9 percent and China's blue chips dropped 1.3 percent.

The Philippines held an unscheduled central bank meeting due to the turmoil, while Germany's central bank head said an ECB rate hike next month was "an option".

Fears of a 2022-style inflation shock have seen traders fully price out any chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, further supporting the dollar.

Germany's two-year bond yield DE2YT=RR, sensitive to European Central Bank rate expectations, rose after falling on Wednesday. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Worries about persistent inflation also drove US Treasury yields higher. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR was last up 4.2 basis points at 4.37 percent. The two-year note's yield US2YT=RR was last up 5.4 bps at 3.934 percent.

Earlier, the yield on Japan's two-year government bond JP2YT=RR hit its highest level in 30 years at 1.33 percent, as traders cemented bets on another Bank of Japan rate hike as early as next month.

In currencies, the US dollar rose against most major currencies, reviving its safe-haven appeal.

Persistent delays in claim settlements by major general insurers are eroding public confidence in Bangladesh's insurance sector, as official data show insurers paid just 9.37% of total claims in the final quarter of 2025.

Data from the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (IDRA) show general insurers settled only Tk372 crore out of claims worth Tk3,971 crore filed between October and December 2025.

Industry analysts said the massive backlog highlights deep structural weaknesses, including limited financial capacity, poor liquidity management and operational inefficiencies.

Sadharan Bima settles just 3.41%

Among the largest insurers, the state-owned Sadharan Bima Corporation recorded the highest volume of pending claims. During the quarter, it faced claims totalling Tk2,264 crore but settled only Tk77 crore, representing just 3.41% of the total. As a result, Tk2,187 crore remained unsettled.

A senior official of the corporation, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the organisation is trying to resolve claims but faces structural obstacles that slow the process.

He said roughly 80% of delays occur because survey reports – crucial documents used to assess damage after accidents or disasters – are often submitted late.

The problem is particularly severe for reinsurance-related claims. In some cases, survey reports take five to seven years to arrive, making it impossible to complete final settlements, he said.

"Without these reports, the corporation cannot settle claims with foreign reinsurers, which in turn delays compensation for policyholders," the official added.

He warned that unless the survey system becomes faster and more efficient, the settlement crisis will persist across the general insurance industry.

Private insurers also lag

During the October-December quarter, Green Delta Insurance settled only Tk13 crore out of Tk342 crore in claims, leaving around Tk330 crore unresolved. Its settlement rate stood at just 3.67%.

Despite the low settlement ratio, the company declared a 27% cash dividend for shareholders in 2025, drawing criticism from policyholders who said firms prioritise shareholder returns over client payments.

Reliance Insurance faced similar criticism. It settled Tk20.41 crore out of Tk161 crore in claims during the quarter, leaving Tk141 crore pending, yet approved a 30% cash dividend.

Other insurers also showed weak performance. Pragati Insurance had Tk200 crore in claims but resolved only Tk17 crore, while Peoples Insurance settled just Tk0.52 crore out of Tk89 crore. Northern Islami Insurance paid Tk1.7 crore against claims worth Tk70.92 crore.

A senior official of Green Delta told TBS that delays often occur because policyholders fail to submit complete documentation. Many file claims on time but do not provide proof of loss, police or fire service reports, survey assessments, ownership papers or invoices.

Incomplete or incorrect paperwork complicates verification and can delay settlements for months, he said, adding that disputes over claim amounts are another factor.

"When policyholders demand compensation exceeding the insurer's assessed loss, disagreements often lead to arbitration or legal proceedings, prolonging the process," he added.

Claims involving uninsured risks also create complications, he said. In some cases, policyholders file for losses not covered under policies, including damages from political unrest, certain natural disasters or gradual asset deterioration.

"Such cases require reassessment and explanation, which extends settlement timelines," he explained.

Weak enforcement, lack of accountability

Experts said documentation issues alone cannot explain the scale of the problem. They argued that weak regulatory enforcement and a lack of accountability allow insurers to delay payments with little consequence.

The IDRA has faced criticism from industry observers and consumer groups for failing to take strong action against companies that consistently postpone settlements.

The delays are particularly damaging in the non-life sector, where timely compensation is critical for businesses and individuals recovering from accidents, fires or natural disasters. When claims remain unpaid for months or years, policyholders are often forced to absorb losses, causing severe financial stress.

By law, insurers must settle valid claims within 90 days. In practice, industry sources said this rule is frequently ignored.

Role of reinsurance provider

Another structural factor behind the delays is the role of the state-owned reinsurer, Sadharan Bima Corporation. Under current rules, general insurers must reinsure 50% of their risk exposure with the corporation, while the remainder can be transferred to foreign reinsurers.

Industry insiders said delays by the state reinsurer in settling its share often prevent primary insurers from paying policyholders on time, trapping the process in a complex chain involving surveyors, insurers, reinsurers and regulators.