Eastern Bank PLC (EBL) has reached a significant milestone in its financial journey, posting a record standalone profit after tax of Tk901 crore for the year 2025.

This achievement represents a robust 20% year-on-year growth, underscoring the bank's consistent earnings momentum and a resilient business model that has successfully navigated an increasingly challenging operating environment, according to a press release.

The bank's board of directors, in a meeting held today (15 April), approved the annual audited financial statements and recommended a generous payout for its shareholders.

The board proposed a 25% cash dividend and a 3% stock dividend for the year ending December 2025, a shift from the previous year's distribution of 17.5% cash and 17.5% stock.

On a consolidated basis, which includes the performance of its subsidiaries, the bank's net profit after tax reached Tk834 crore, marking an even more impressive growth of 26% compared to the previous year.

To finalise these recommendations and review the year's performance, the bank has scheduled its Annual General Meeting (AGM) for 11 June, with 6 May set as the record date for determining shareholder eligibility.

The record-breaking profitability is the culmination of a half-decade of steady growth; EBL's consolidated profit has climbed consistently from Tk480 crore in 2021 to the current Tk834 crore, reflecting a clear trajectory of sustainable value creation.

The bank's strong bottom line was driven by prudent balance sheet management and disciplined risk practices, said the bank in its statement.

Throughout 2025, EBL continued to deliver robust growth across all its key financial indicators. Total deposits rose by 21.6% to reach Tk55,645 crore, while loans and advances increased by 16.1% to settle at Tk47,704 crore by the end of the year.

Perhaps the most striking growth was observed in the bank's investment portfolio, which recorded a significant surge of 47.8%, reaching Tk21,147 crore. This surge highlights the bank's strategic move to optimise its asset allocation in a fluctuating market.

Asset quality remains the strongest pillar of EBL's operational success. While the broader banking industry in Bangladesh has struggled with high levels of defaulted loans – averaging around 30.60% – EBL has managed to bring its non-performing loan (NPL) ratio down to just 2.24%. This figure reflects a level of credit discipline and risk management that is rare in the local market, according to the press release.

Furthermore, the bank maintained full compliance with all regulatory requirements, including BASEL III liquidity standards, ensuring it remained well-capitalised and resilient against potential economic shocks.

This financial stability is reflected in the bank's solo earnings per share (EPS), which rose to Tk5.65 from a restated Tk4.70 in 2024, and its solo net asset value (NAV) per share, which increased to Tk31.86 from Tk27.16.

The bank's profitability indicators also showed sustained strength, with the return on equity (ROE) improving to 19.13% from 18.57% in the previous year. Efficiency remained a priority, as evidenced by a cost-to-income ratio of 40.36%, which is among the lowest in the industry.

To further support future growth and institutional resilience, the bank enhanced its capital base, with the solo capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) increasing to 15.49% from 15.11% in the prior year.

As EBL heads into 2026, its record performance reaffirms its position as a market leader, well-equipped to advance its strategic priorities while maintaining a focus on sustainable growth and long-term value for its stakeholders, read the press release.

The Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (Bepza) wants to establish two new export processing zones in Rangpur and Sirajganj to increase industrialisation in the north and encourage the use of solar energy, officials announced yesterday as they celebrated the organisation's 46th anniversary.

Since its inception under the Prime Minister's Office, the organisation has made a substantial contribution to the nation's economic development, and analysts have noted its ongoing influence on social and economic advancement.

Bepza Executive Chairman Major General Mohammad Moazzem Hossain said, "Currently, besides eight operational EPZs and two economic zones, new EPZs are being implemented in Jashore and Patuakhali, and EPZs in Rangpur and Sirajganj are in the planning stage. Once implemented, the geographical spread of the country's industrialisation will increase further."

Sources said 450 acres of land under Rangpur Sugar Mill in the Sahebganj area of Gobindaganj have been already handed over to Bepza for EPZ. It is anticipated that the establishment of an EPZ will provide jobs for more than a lakh people.

The Bepza Act was passed in 1980, and the organisation formally began operations on 15 April 1981 through a gazette notification, marking a new phase of planned industrialisation.

Beyond readymade garments, EPZs now produce car parts, electronics, camera lenses, wigs, shoes and bicycles. Only 32% of factories produce garments, while 68% represent diversified industries.

ASM Anwar Parvez, executive director (public relations), told TBS, "By attracting domestic and foreign investment, increasing exports through diversification of export products, and creating employment, the zones under Bepza's management are making unique contributions to the country's industrial sector.

"The total area of the eight EPZs and Bepza Economic Zone is only 3,550.33 acres or 14.37 sq-km, which is less than 0.001% of the country's total area. From this small land, Bepza contributes about 15-20% of total exports every year. In the fiscal 2024-25, the contribution was 17.03%."

He added, "In the last 45 years, Bepza has attracted $7.29 billion in investment and exported goods worth over $125 billion. Currently, around 5.5 lakh people are employed, a large portion of whom are women. This employment drives economic growth and supports social change and women's empowerment."

Following the success of eight EPZs, Bepza began establishing the Bepza Economic Zone in 2018 at Mirsharai in Chattogram, where exports have already started. The zone has drawn strong interest from investors and become a key industrial hub.

Eight companies are in production there, five are in trial production, and 34 are under implementation. Bepza has also started developing EPZs in Jashore and Patuakhali, with plot allocation expected within this year.

At an event marking "Bepza Day 2026" yesterday, Moazzem Hossain said, "Bepza has been making important contributions to the country's economic development for the last 45 years. This contribution is not limited to attracting investment and exports, but has also brought marginal communities into the mainstream through employment creation and made them self-reliant."

"Besides, Bepza is playing a pioneering role in worker welfare by establishing modern hospitals and schools in Bepza zones," he added.

Uber has committed more than $10 billion to buying thousands of autonomous vehicles and taking stakes in their developers, breaking from its asset-light "gig economy" business model to avoid disruption from robotaxis, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.

Reuters could not immediately verify the report. Uber did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Uber is positioning itself as a marketplace for multiple robotaxi operators, and has partnered across much of the autonomous vehicle industry, including with Baidu, Rivian and Lucid, and has outlined plans to launch robotaxi services in at least 28 cities by 2028.

These deals put Uber on track to invest more than $2.5 billion in equity stakes and spend over $7.5 billion on robotaxi fleets in the next few years, FT reported, citing its calculations based on analyst estimates and people familiar with Uber's deals. The agreements are contingent on its partners hitting certain deployment milestones.

Interest in driverless taxis has surged in recent months after years of missed promises, with artificial intelligence and tech partnerships offering hopes of solving complex traffic scenarios faster and mitigating high costs.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, after holding a video conference with leaders from Southeast Asia, told reporters that the assistance, dubbed "Power Asia," is aimed at providing loans needed to secure crude oil, petroleum products, and to maintain the supply chain in an emergency response to help hard-hit nations.

The fund also aims to expand an oil reserve system within Asia, diversify energy, and promote energy conservation and industrial advancement, Takaichi said.

Japan, which imports petroleum-related products such as medical supplies from Southeast Asia, is increasingly worried that the region's oil supply shortages would affect the Japanese economy.

The fund is one year's worth of oil imports for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations member countries, or about 1.2 billion barrels, Takaichi said. The assistance is not meant to just provide oil, but for Asian nations to support each other.

Stocks at the Dhaka bourse slipped back into losses yesterday after a brief rebound in the previous session, as persistent sell-offs driven by cautious investor sentiment eroded early gains.

The downturn came amid heightened global uncertainty following the failure of talks between the US and Iran, prompting investors to offload shares and adopt a wait-and-see approach.

The benchmark index, DSEX, of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) fell by 41 points to close at 5,230. Market turnover also declined by 5%, while total market capitalisation dropped by Tk2,555 crore to Tk6.85 lakh crore, according to DSE data.

Market breadth remained negative, with 55% of traded stocks declining, compared to 31% advancing, while 14% remained unchanged.

The decline follows a modest recovery in the previous session when the market snapped a losing streak.

On Sunday, the DSEX gained 14 points after shedding around 60 points in earlier sessions.

Yesterday's trading began on a positive note, with indices staying in the green for the first 38 minutes until 10:38am, supported by early buying interest. However, the momentum proved short-lived as selling pressure, particularly in blue-chip stocks, pulled the indices into losses.

By the end of the session, the Shariah-based index DSES fell by 3 points to 1,057, while the blue-chip DS30 index declined by 31 points to 1,981.

Data showed that around 60% of A-category stocks, typically known for offering over 10% dividends, registered price declines. Meanwhile, 40% of Z-category stocks, considered junk stocks, also lost value.

In contrast, mutual funds posted gains, with 73% of traded funds closing higher.

In its daily market commentary, EBL Securities said the market failed to sustain the previous session's recovery as geopolitical concerns dampened investor confidence.

"Although the market opened on a positive note, the momentum quickly faded as jittery sentiment triggered broad-based sell-offs," the brokerage firm noted.

"Selling pressure intensified in large-cap stocks as the session progressed, dragging the broad index into negative territory and reflecting a lack of confidence among investors," it added.

Among the gainers, Mir Akhter Hossain Ltd topped the chart with a 9.82% rise to Tk31.3 per share. It was followed by Yeakin Polymer (9.03%), Fareast Finance (8.69%), Phoenix Finance 1st Mutual Fund (8.61%), and Premier Leasing (8.3%).

On the losing side, Meghna Condensed Milk Industries led the decliners, falling 4.67% to Tk36.7 per share, despite its operations remaining suspended for years. Other major losers included Apex Tannery (4.33%), KDS Accessories (4.27%), Sena Insurance (4.22%), and Peoples Insurance (3.86%).

Bangladesh is entering a period of intense fiscal pressure, with external debt servicing set to surge sharply over the next five years, exposing the limits of its already weak revenue base.

According to an Economic Relations Division (ERD) report, the country will need to pay nearly $26 billion in external debt servicing between the current fiscal year and FY30.

The scale of the burden is clearer in historical context.

In the 54 years since independence in 1971, Bangladesh has paid around $40 billion in debt servicing. Now, nearly two-thirds of that amount will be repaid within just five years.

This comes as the tax-to-GDP ratio has slipped below 7%, the lowest among peer economies, constraining the government's ability to absorb shocks or expand spending.

At the same time, a series of external shocks – including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, domestic political instability, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East – have strained revenue collection, export earnings and remittance flows, further complicating debt servicing pressures.

Total external debt stood at $77.28 billion as of 30 June 2025, up from $68.82 billion a year earlier, according to another ERD report.

Bangladesh paid about $4 billion in the previous fiscal year, which is expected to rise to $4.74 billion in the current year, $4.87 billion in FY27 – peaking at $5.5 billion in FY30.

Economists say the rising obligation will strain public finances at a time of elevated global energy prices. They warn that within five to 10 years, as repayments on new loans begin, the situation could become more complex.

They say avoiding a foreign debt trap requires an urgent push to expand exports, develop skilled manpower, boost remittances, improve investment climate and strengthen revenue.

Why debt pressure is rising

The latest ERD report was prepared ahead of the finance minister's Washington meetings. The finance minister and governor are now in the United States, seeking fresh budget support from the World Bank and the release of IMF loan tranches to ease fiscal stress.

The report estimates are based on external loans contracted up to FY25. Borrowing in the current fiscal year has not been included.

Officials said Bangladesh has financed a series of mega projects through external borrowing, including the $11.3 billion Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, Padma Rail Link, Karnaphuli Tunnel, Dhaka Metro Rail, Single Point Mooring with Double Pipeline, Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport expansion and the Jamuna Railway Bridge.

Many of these projects have either completed or are nearing the end of their grace periods, triggering principal repayments and steadily increasing debt servicing pressure.

Principal repayments for the Rooppur plant are set to begin in 2028, with annual payments exceeding $500 million. Budget support loans taken during the post-Covid period are also entering repayment phases, further adding to pressure.

Officials also cited implementation delays as a major concern. Delays have slowed the realisation of economic returns, while some completed projects remain idle due to operational bottlenecks.

For instance, electricity generation from Rooppur was expected two years earlier but has been delayed. The Single Point Mooring project, completed in 2024 with $467.84 million in Chinese financing, has yet to begin operations. The Dhaka airport expansion, financed with nearly $2 billion from Japan, also remains idle due to delays in appointing an operator.

Burden peaks in FY30

The report shows Bangladesh will need to repay $25.99 billion over FY26-FY30, including the current fiscal year. Of this, $18.38 billion is principal and $7.6 billion interest. This burden will nearly double to $51.33 billion between FY26 and FY35.

FY30 is projected as the peak repayment year, when Bangladesh will need to service about $5.5 billion based on the debt stock as of June 2025.

The report notes that, based on average monthly remittances of about $2.03 billion during FY21-FY25, less than three months of inflows would be sufficient to cover annual external debt obligations even at the peak.

Existing debt needs 37 years to clear

Based on borrowings up to June of the last fiscal year, Bangladesh would need 37 years to fully repay its existing external debt stock, according to the ERD.

If no new loans are added, the current stock would be cleared by FY63, meaning today's liabilities will continue to be serviced over the long term.

Net external borrowing in FY25 was $5.83 billion, with officials estimating annual increases in debt stock of roughly $8-9 billion.

Debt ratios under pressure

According to the latest Flow of External Resources into Bangladesh report by the ERD, the debt-to-GDP ratio, though still low by global standards, is gradually rising.

It reached 18.99% at the end of FY25, up from 17.03% a year earlier, against a 40% benchmark. The debt-to-revenue ratio also edged higher, climbing to 16.92% from 16.53% over the same period, nearing the IMF's threshold of 18%.

The ERD warned that without stronger revenue growth, Bangladesh could lose its current "comfortable position" in servicing external debt.

Other indicators offer a mixed outlook. The debt-to-exports of goods and services plus remittances ratio improved modestly, falling to 105.87% from 110.09% a year earlier, remaining well below the IMF's 180% threshold.

'Exports, remittances must keep pace'

Terming the situation an "unavoidable reality" for Bangladesh, Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said, "If export earnings and remittances fail to keep pace, the economy could slip into distress."

World Bank and IMF analyses show the shift from "low" to "moderate" debt risk is driven less by GDP and more by worsening debt-to-revenue and debt-to-export ratios.

He warned that weak revenue mobilisation and foreign exchange pressures are already staring the economy. "Without improvement, moderate risk could escalate into high risk."

He called for stricter "sanity checks" in selecting loan-funded projects, especially in energy, where investments could ease gas shortages, raise industrial output and support exports.

Loan decisions, he said, must focus on repayment capacity through future exports and fiscal space, not just loan size.

Bangladesh has not defaulted so far, he noted, but warned the buffer may not hold amid global slowdown, LDC graduation pressures and geopolitical shocks. "Debt rescheduling or delays in repayment would carry reputational risks and increase future borrowing costs," he said.

'Capacity-building imperative'

Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director at the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development, said the economy is at a critical juncture, with rising repayments alongside fresh borrowing.

He warned that mismanagement could trigger a crisis, calling for urgent capacity building based on four pillars: export expansion, skilled manpower development, improved investment climate and stronger revenue collection.

He said reliance on the ready-made garments sector alone is insufficient and called for diversification into agro-products, leather goods and light engineering.

Remittances, he added, remain a key lifeline, requiring alignment with global labour market demand and expanded training programmes. He also urged easier and more attractive legal remittance channels.

He said Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio of around 7-8% is a structural weakness. "This narrow revenue base is insufficient to service large-scale debt while sustaining development."

He called for tax system reforms, anti-evasion measures and broader tax coverage.

He added that energy security is a direct enabler of debt repayment capacity. "Uninterrupted gas and power supply is essential to keep industrial production running."

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has unveiled an ambitious vision to transform Bangladesh into a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, even as rising debt and intensifying climate risks threaten to derail progress.

Speaking at the 16th Ministerial Dialogue of the CVF-V20 on April 14, the minister underscored Bangladesh’s position as one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable economies, warning of a tightening fiscal environment driven by recurring disasters and financial strain.

Mr. Chowdhury delivered a stark assessment of the country’s economic trajectory, cautioning that development financing is increasingly constrained by a growing debt burden.

Bangladesh’s debt-to-GDP ratio has climbed sharply – from 26.2 per cent in FY2017 to 36.0 per cent in FY2023 – with further increases expected as repayment obligations rise on large infrastructure projects.

By FY2024, domestic debt is projected to comprise 56 per cent of total liabilities, while external debt will account for 44 per cent, reflecting a shifting financing structure that could heighten internal fiscal pressure.

The fiscal squeeze is already impacting climate-related social protection efforts. Allocations for climate-focused programmes under the Social Safety Net Programme (SSNP) have dropped dramatically to U$592.8 million for FY2025–26, down from U$1.42 billion previously – nearly a two-thirds reduction.Personal Finance Software

To cushion vulnerable populations, the government has introduced targeted initiatives such as “Family Cards” and “Farmers Cards”, aimed at mitigating the combined shocks of climate change and global economic volatility.

Beyond domestic challenges, Bangladesh is grappling with mounting geopolitical and trade pressures.

The World Bank estimates that the ongoing Middle East conflicts could push an additional 1.2 million Bangladeshis into poverty, exacerbating social vulnerabilities.

Meanwhile, the minister criticised unilateral trade measures (UTMs) that bypass global trade norms, arguing that such policies disproportionately affect climate-vulnerable economies like Bangladesh.

In response, Bangladesh has outlined a five-point reform agenda aimed at reshaping international financial support mechanisms.

The points are adoption of a Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI) instead of GNI per capita to determine aid eligibility, large-scale and fast-tracked debt relief mechanisms, expanded risk-hedging tools to attract private climate investment, pre-arranged emergency liquidity facilities for climate disasters and accelerated climate-focused reforms within multilateral development banks.Bangladesh Economic Report

“It is time to translate conference into practice and turn advocacy into action,” Mr. Chowdhury said, urging the global community to step up support.

He also proposed establishing a CVF-V20 Regional Hub in Dhaka, positioning Bangladesh as a leader in climate resilience and policy innovation.

Bangladesh’s trillion-dollar ambition signals confidence in long-term growth, but without urgent fiscal space, climate financing, and global support, the path ahead remains highly challenging.

A high-powered Bangladesh delegation is now staying in Washington D.C. led by the finance minister for joining the Spring Meetings of IMF-WBG.

Finance Secretary Dr Md Khairuzzaman Mozumder, NBR Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan, Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman, Basumati Group Chairman ZM Golam Nabi and senior officials of different ministries and divisions are members of the panel.

The Spring Meetings began on April 13 and will conclude on April 18.

The International Monetary Fund cut its growth outlook on Tuesday due to Iran war-driven energy price spikes and supply disruptions and warned that the global economy would teeter on ​the brink of recession if the conflict worsens and oil stays above $100 per barrel through 2027.

With massive uncertainty over the Middle East conflict gripping finance officials gathering for IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, ‌the IMF presented three growth scenarios: weaker, worse and severe, depending on how the war unfolds.

The World Economic Outlook's most optimistic "reference scenario" assumes a short-lived Iran war and forecasts 3.1% real GDP growth for 2026, down 0.2 percentage point from its previous forecast in January. Under this scenario, oil prices average $82 per barrel for all of 2026, a decline from recent levels of around $100 for the Brent benchmark futures price .

Absent the Middle East conflict, the IMF said it would have upgraded its growth outlook by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%, due to a continued technology investment boom, lower interest rates, less-severe US tariffs and fiscal support ​in some countries.

But the war has created a far bigger risk to the global economy than President Donald Trump's initial wave of steep tariffs did a year ago, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told Reuters in an interview.

"What's happening in ​the Gulf is potentially much, much larger, and that's what our scenarios are kind of documenting," he said.

Under an "adverse scenario" of a longer conflict that keeps oil prices around $100 per barrel this ⁠year and $75 in 2027, the IMF predicts global GDP growth would fall to 2.5% this year. The IMF in January had forecast that oil would decline to about $62 in 2026.

And the IMF's worst-case "severe scenario" assumes an extended and deepening conflict and much higher oil prices that prompt ​major financial market dislocations and tighter financial conditions, slashing global growth to 2.0%.

"This would mean a close call for a global recession," the IMF said, adding that growth has been below that level only four times since 1980 - with the last two severe recessions in 2009, following ​the financial crisis, and in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic raged.

Inflation pressures

Gourinchas said that a number of countries would be in outright recessions under this scenario, with oil prices averaging $110 per barrel in 2026 and $125 in 2027. Prices at this level for an extended time would also increase expectations "that inflation is here to stay," prompting wider price increases and wage hike demands.

"That change in inflation expectations is going to require central banks to step on the brakes and try to bring inflation back down," he said, adding that this may require more pain than in 2022.

The IMF said, however, that central banks ​may be able to "look through" a short-lived energy price surge and hold rates steady amid weaker activity, which would be a de facto monetary easing, but only if inflation expectations remain anchored.

Global inflation for 2026 would top 6% in the severe scenario, compared to ​4.4% in the most-optimistic reference scenario, which is the assumption for the IMF's country and regional growth forecasts.

Major economy outlooks

The IMF shaved its US growth outlook for this year to 2.3%, down just a tenth of a percentage point from January, reflecting the positive effect of tax cuts, the ‌lagged effect of ⁠interest rate cuts and continued AI data center investment partly offsetting the higher energy costs. These effects are expected to continue in 2027, with growth now forecast at 2.1%, up a tenth of a point from January.

The euro zone, still struggling with higher energy prices caused by Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, takes a bigger hit from the Middle East conflict, with its growth outlook falling 0.2 percentage points in both years to 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% for 2027.

Japan's growth is largely unchanged under the most benign scenario at a weak 0.7% for 2026 and 0.6% for 2027, but the IMF said that it expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates at a slightly faster pace than anticipated six months ago.

The IMF forecast China's growth for 2026 at 4.4%, down a tenth of a point ​from January as the higher energy and commodity costs are partly ​offset by lower US tariff rates and government stimulus measures. ⁠But the IMF said headwinds from a depressed housing sector, a declining labor force, lower returns on investment and slower productivity growth will cut China's 2027 growth to 4.0%, a forecast unchanged from January.

Emerging markets, Middle East hit hard

Overall, emerging market and developing economies, where GDP tends to be more dependent on oil inputs, take a bigger hit from the Middle East conflict than advanced economies, with 2026 ​growth seen falling 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%.

Nowhere is this more pronounced than at the epicenter of the conflict in the Middle East and Central Asia region, which will see its ​2026 GDP growth fall by two full ⁠percentage points to 1.9% amid widespread infrastructure damage and sharply curtailed energy and commodity exports.

GDP declines for 2026 are forecast at 6.1% for Iran, 8.6% for Qatar, 6.8% for Iraq, 0.6% for Kuwait and 0.5% for Bahrain.

But under the assumption of a short-lived conflict, the region bounces back quickly, with 2027 GDP growth rebounding to 4.6%, a jump of 0.6 percentage point from the January forecasts.

The one bright spot amid emerging markets is India, which saw growth upgrades of about a tenth of a percentage point to 6.5% for both 2026 and 2027, due in ⁠part to momentum ​from strong growth at the end last year and a deal to lower the US tariff rate on Indian imports.

Fuel cost fiscal support

The IMF said that governments ​will be tempted to implement fiscal measures to ease the pain of higher energy prices, including price caps, fuel subsidies or tax cuts, but cautioned against these urges amid still-elevated budget deficits and rising public debt.

Gourinchas said it was "perfectly legitimate" to want to protect the most vulnerable, but subsidies in one country could lead to ​fuel shortages in others that can't afford them.

"You have to do it in a very targeted, very temporary way that doesn't really mess up the fiscal framework" needed by most countries to rebuild their fiscal buffers, he said.

Mobile financial service provider Nagad has consolidated its position as the leading platform for disbursing government allowances—including old-age, widow, and disability benefits—as well as education stipends under the national social safety net programme.

Although the disbursement window is open to all financial institutions, Nagad remains the preferred platform for beneficiaries, according to a press release issued on Monday.

In the January–March quarter of this year, approximately 1.47 crore beneficiaries selected Nagad to receive government allowances and stipends. During this period, total government disbursements through Nagad reached Tk3,049.23 crore across several categories.

Of this total, the largest number of beneficiaries and highest volume of funds were disbursed under the government's social safety net programme. Between January and March, around 1.31 crore beneficiaries received Tk2,878.35 crore through Nagad accounts—Tk300 crore more than in the same period last year.

Nagad also disbursed Tk32.68 crore in education stipends to 4,12,697 primary school students during the quarter.

During the same period, 5,785 students participating in sewing and embroidery training programmes received Tk2.68 crore through Nagad, marking an increase from the corresponding period last year.

In technical education, 1,22,937 students received stipends totalling Tk45.58 crore through Nagad—nearly Tk10 crore more than in the same period a year earlier.

Under the Madrasa Education Directorate, 38,055 students received Tk3.43 crore in stipends via the platform.

Meanwhile, under the Mother and Child Benefit Programme, Nagad disbursed Tk86.50 crore in maternity allowances to 10,11,557 beneficiaries.

The government also distributed funds under the 'Family Card' programme on a pilot basis through Nagad as part of the social safety net during the same period.

Md Samsul Islam, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer of Nagad, stated, "Nagad remains the preferred choice for customers receiving allowances, stipends, and government grants. We are grateful to our customers and the government for their trust. This confidence is a testament to our service quality, and as a result, both the number of beneficiaries and the volume of disbursements through Nagad continue to rise each quarter."

In the 2024–25 fiscal year, the government disbursed Tk9,000 crore in social safety net allowances via Nagad. The amount is expected to increase further in the current fiscal year, according to the press release.

The capital market in Bangladesh faces persistent problems with trust. IPO fraud and manipulation continue despite reforms, undermining investor confidence and impeding economic growth. Long-term stability and national development are at stake.

The nation has learned painful lessons. An estimated $27 billion in market value—roughly 22 percent of GDP at the time—was destroyed by the crashes of 1996 and, more catastrophically, 2010–2011. Millions of investors suffered losses, leaving social repercussions that still shape public perception of the stock market. The same structural flaws remain more than a decade later.

Recent enforcement data highlight the severity. The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) fined individuals nearly Tk 1,488 crore in the past 18 months for manipulation and misconduct. Yet only a fraction has been recovered due to lengthy legal battles. This gap between punishment and accountability sends the wrong signal: wrongdoing is costly on paper but not in practice.

Systemic weaknesses drive these failures—coordinated trading through omnibus accounts, abuse of placement shares, diversion of IPO proceeds, and lack of real-time surveillance. Bangladesh’s market capitalization remains low, around 6 percent of GDP in mid-2025, compared to over 100 percent in deeper, better-run markets. This underdevelopment hampers financing for infrastructure, SMEs, and industrial growth—key to Vision 2041 and the “Smart Bangladesh” agenda.

Globally, fraud persists but is increasingly managed with technology. Scandals like Enron and Madoff spurred regulators to adopt AI for real-time surveillance. Exchanges are also testing blockchain-based settlement systems that are faster, cheaper, and more transparent. Emerging economies such as India and Brazil have embraced digital reforms, strengthening disclosure, monitoring, and enforcement.

Bangladesh, however, still relies on manual oversight and fragmented data. In an era of cyber-enabled scams, this is insufficient. For a small, fragile market, each crisis inflicts disproportionate damage and deters investors. Modern technology offers a transformative opportunity.

Blockchain can fundamentally change IPOs and securities transactions. In a permissioned blockchain, every transaction is permanently recorded, time-stamped, and visible to authorized participants. Smart contracts can automate IPO rules—ensuring funds are released only when verified conditions are met, allocations follow transparent logic, and lock-up periods cannot be bypassed. Immutable records eliminate manipulation.

AI complements this as a real-time watchdog. It can analyze trading patterns, detect unusual movements, and identify coordinated networks far faster than traditional monitoring. Leading exchanges report fewer false alarms and quicker enforcement after adopting AI-driven systems.

Together, blockchain and AI create a powerful regulatory architecture: blockchain ensures data integrity, AI provides intelligence and early warning. Such systems could flag suspicious IPO activity, trigger halts during abnormal behaviour, and deliver regulators immediate, evidence-based alerts. Privacy-preserving technologies safeguard data.

For Bangladesh, implementation can be phased. Pilot IPOs integrated with the central securities depository would allow testing and scaling. International experience shows such reforms reduce fraud risk, shorten settlement cycles, improve liquidity, and restore confidence.

A regulatory sandbox led by BSEC, with Bangladesh Bank, could test blockchain-based e-IPO systems and AI surveillance. Capacity building is vital—training regulators, auditors, and intermediaries to oversee data-driven systems. Collaboration among exchanges, the depository, banks, and technology providers will be essential.

Implementation should begin with targeted pilots: blockchain-enabled IPOs and AI surveillance in the secondary market, before scaling. This gradual approach limits disruption while signaling decisive reform.

Bangladesh is well-positioned to leapfrog. High mobile penetration, a young tech-savvy population, and strong policy backing under the Smart Bangladesh Master Plan provide a solid foundation. While advanced economies refined systems over decades, late adopters can now deploy mature technologies quickly.

The cost of inaction is clear: repeated scandals will cap growth, deter foreign investment, and push savings into informal channels. The benefits of action are equally clear: a transparent market that channels savings into productive investment, lowers risk premiums, and supports sustainable transformation.

Fraud is not inevitable—it is a governance problem that can be solved. By adopting blockchain and AI as core regulatory tools now, Bangladesh can protect investors, strengthen institutions, and become a regional leader in financial innovation. Decisive reform today will yield economic, social, and strategic dividends for decades.

The US military began a blockade of Iran's ports, angering Tehran and adding uncertainty around the crucial waterway, although hopes for dialogue to end the war provided some relief to ​oil markets, where benchmark prices fell below $100 on Tuesday (14 April).

After a breakdown of weekend talks in Islamabad between the two adversaries, a US official said there was continued engagement and ‌forward motion on trying to get to an agreement. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also said efforts were still underway to resolve the conflict.

US President Donald Trump said Iran had been in touch on Monday and wanted to make a deal but that he would not sanction any agreement allowing Tehran to have a nuclear weapon.

Since the United States and Israel began the war on 28 February, Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels except its own, saying passage ​would be permitted only under Iranian control and subject to a fee.

The fallout has been widespread, since nearly a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies flowed through the narrow ​waterway before the start of the conflict.

Trump has said Washington would block Iranian vessels and any ships that paid such tolls and that any Iranian "fast-attack" ships ⁠that went near the blockade would be eliminated. Tehran has threatened to hit naval ships going through the strait and to retaliate against its Gulf neighbours' ports.

Shipping data on LSEG showed Chinese-owned oil-and-chemicals tanker Rich ​Starry passed through the strait on Tuesday - the first since the US blockade began at 10am EDT (1400GMT) on Monday. The vessel, which departed Sharjah anchorage off the coast of Dubai on Monday heading for China, had ​earlier turned back minutes after approaching the strait.

The US's blockade has further clouded the outlook for global energy security and the supply of a vast array of goods that rely on petroleum, and has little, if any, international backing.

Nato allies including Britain and France said they would not be drawn into the conflict by taking part in the blockade, stressing instead the need to reopen the waterway.

Despite the breakdown of talks between the US and Iran on Sunday, Vice President JD Vance, who ​led the US delegation, told Fox News on Monday the US "made a lot of progress" by communicating to Tehran where the US "could make some accommodation" and where it would remain inflexible.

He said Trump was adamant ​that any enriched nuclear material must be removed from Iran and a mechanism must be established to verify that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons.

Tehran "moved in our direction, which is why I think we would say that we had ‌some good ⁠signs, but they didn't move far enough," Vance said, without disclosing details.

Ceasefire under strain

The ceasefire that halted six weeks of US-Israeli airstrikes and retaliatory fire from Iran across the Gulf looked in jeopardy, with only a week left to run.

The US military's Central Command said the blockade would be "enforced impartially against vessels of all nations" entering or leaving Iranian ports in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman. It would not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations, it said in a note to seafarers seen by Reuters.

An Iranian military spokesperson called any US restrictions on international shipping "piracy," warning that if Iranian ports were threatened, ​no port in the Gulf or Gulf of ​Oman would be secure. Any military vessels approaching ⁠the strait would violate the ceasefire, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said.

Trump said Iran's navy had been "completely obliterated" during the war, adding that only a small number of "fast-attack ships" remained.

"Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against ​the drug dealers on boats at Sea. It is quick and brutal," Trump said on social media.

He was apparently referring to the US strikes carried ​out against suspected drug boats ⁠in the Caribbean and Pacific. The strikes, which began in September, killed more than 160 people. The US military has not provided evidence that the vessels were ferrying drugs.

Lebanon faces attacks

With the war unpopular at home and rising energy prices causing political blowback, Trump paused the US-Israeli bombing campaign last week after threatening to destroy Iran's "whole civilisation" unless it reopened the strait.

In a letter to the United Nations, Iran's UN delegation on Monday asked for reparations from ⁠Saudi Arabia, ​the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan, alleging they have allowed their territory to be used in the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Israel has ​continued to bombard Lebanon and on Monday troops launched an attack it said was intended to seize a key south Lebanon town from Iran-backed Hezbollah. The Israeli military said on Tuesday that an Israeli soldier was killed and three reservists were wounded during combat in southern Lebanon.

Israel ​and the US have said the campaign against Hezbollah was not part of the ceasefire, while Iran has insisted it is.

With Islamic banking now commanding 30% of Bangladesh's market, the shift from interest-based to asset-backed models is accelerating. Bank Asia is at the forefront, boasting a 70% deposit-investment ratio and a portfolio where Musharakah-based financing – true risk-sharing – hits 50%.

In a recent conversation with The Business Standard, the Bank's AMD ANM Mahfuz discusses the sector's trajectory and evolving strategic priorities

What is your outlook for the Islamic banking sector in the near future?

Islamic banking in Bangladesh has experienced remarkable growth since its introduction in 1983.

The sector has built deep public trust by aligning financial services with ethical and religious values.

With rising demand for Shariah-compliant products, expansion in SME and retail segments, and supportive regulatory frameworks, the outlook is highly promising.

In my view, Islamic banking will continue to increase its market share and play a transformative role in building a more inclusive, ethical and value-driven financial system.

What is driving the preference for Islamic banking over conventional banking?

Islamic banking is gaining popularity, particularly in Muslim-majority countries such as Bangladesh, primarily because it complies with Shariah principles, where interest (riba) is prohibited.

Beyond religious considerations, it is based on real economic activities involving tangible assets, unlike conventional banking, which is largely interest-based.

This asset-backed, risk-sharing approach enhances transparency and fairness. As a result, Islamic banking is increasingly regarded as a more ethical, stable and socially responsible alternative to traditional banking.

How has your bank's Islamic banking segment performed in recent years?

Bank Asia's Islamic banking segment has demonstrated strong and steady growth in recent years. The deposit–investment ratio has improved significantly, rising from around 50% to nearly 70%, indicating better fund utilisation and operational efficiency.

We remain fully committed to uncompromised Shariah compliance across all operations. A key strength of our portfolio is Musharakah-based financing, which accounts for approximately 50% of total investment, ensuring genuine risk-sharing and ethical financing.

In addition, we have built a strong presence in Sukuk investments and expanded our network from five to 15 Islamic banking windows. These achievements reflect our growing footprint and commitment to excellence in Islamic banking.

What strategies are you adopting to restore depositor confidence in Islamic banks?

Rebuilding depositor confidence in Islamic banking depends fundamentally on strict Shariah compliance and transparency.

Since its inception on 24 December 2008, Bank Asia Islamic Banking has upheld the principle of "Shuddhotai Apnar Munafa", emphasising purity and compliance in all operations.

Confidence is strengthened through a robust Shariah Supervisory Committee, regular Shariah audits and monitoring, skilled Islamic banking professionals, and transparent communication regarding fund utilisation and profit generation.

What opportunities exist to develop the Islamic bond market to support business capital-raising?

The Sukuk market offers significant opportunities for raising Shariah-compliant capital.

Globally, it has grown rapidly, particularly in countries such as Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. In Bangladesh, Sukuk issuance has already laid a strong foundation for further market expansion.

Sukuk can play a crucial role in financing infrastructure, supporting corporate growth, and attracting both individual and institutional investors, including non-resident Bangladeshis.

With appropriate regulatory support, Sukuk can become a key instrument for sustainable and ethical financing, aligning economic growth with social and environmental objectives.

What regulatory support is needed to diversify Islamic banking products?

To diversify Islamic banking products, strong regulatory support is essential.

This includes clear Shariah-compliant guidelines for products such as Sukuk, Takaful and structured investments, tax neutrality for Islamic financial contracts, standardised profit-sharing frameworks, and the development of secondary markets for Islamic instruments.

There is also a need for Shariah-compliant liquidity and risk management tools. Furthermore, promoting fintech integration, innovation and professional training will strengthen the overall ecosystem.

How can Islamic banking products be leveraged to attract NRBs?

Islamic banking products provide a strong platform to attract non-resident Bangladeshis (NRBs). Shariah-compliant options such as Mudarabah deposits, Sukuk investments and Islamic savings schemes offer halal and ethical returns.

Transparent profit-sharing, asset-backed investments and digital banking facilities enhance trust and accessibility, while remittance-linked Islamic accounts simplify fund transfers.

These initiatives can boost foreign currency inflows and strengthen diaspora engagement in Bangladesh's economic development.

How can Islamic banking contribute to sustainable growth and financial inclusion?

Profit-and-loss sharing models such as Mudarabah and Musharakah support SMEs, agriculture and infrastructure, driving job creation and economic development.

Financial inclusion is further enhanced through microfinance, micro-Takaful and Shariah-compliant savings products targeting underserved populations.

In addition, instruments such as green Sukuk finance environmentally sustainable projects.

By combining ethical finance with inclusivity, Islamic banking contributes to long-term economic stability and social equity.

Gold hit a near one-week low on Monday as a stronger dollar and ‌oil’s surge above $100 after the US moved to blockade Iranian ports fuelled inflation concerns, prompting traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Spot gold was down 0.4 percent at $4,730.75 ​per ounce, as of 0735 GMT, after hitting its lowest since April 7 ​earlier in the day at $4,643. US gold futures for June delivery fell 0.7 percent to $4,753.30.

The dollar strengthened 0.3 percent as the US Navy prepared a blockade of ​the Strait of Hormuz that could restrict Iranian oil shipments after peace talks between the US ​and Iran broke down.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded by warning that military vessels approaching the strait will be considered a ceasefire breach and dealt with harshly and decisively.

“Ceasefire optimism has unwound following the failure of ​the peace talks, and the resulting push higher by the dollar and oil ​prices has put gold on the back foot again,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM ‌Trade.

Spot gold ⁠has fallen more than 11 percent since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February. While inflation and geopolitical risks typically boost gold’s appeal as a safe haven, elevated interest rates weigh on the non-yielding metal.

A stronger dollar also makes greenback-priced bullion more expensive for ​holders of other ​currencies.

“As soon as oil ⁠prices push back above $100, attention quickly turns to potential central bank rate hikes to curb inflation, and it is this interest ​rate outlook that is undermining gold’s performance,” Waterer said.

Traders now ​see little ⁠chance of a US rate cut this year, as higher energy prices threaten to feed into broader inflation and limit the scope for monetary easing.

Investors had priced in two Fed ⁠rate cuts ​for 2026 before the start of the war.

Interest payments, subsidies, incentives and cash loans could gobble up big pies of the next budget as the government earmarks over Tk 2.59 trillion on this account and officials predict higher energy costs could bloat the figure.

The sum is roughly 27.86 per cent of the national budget worth Tk 9.3 trillion for fiscal year 206-27, officials at the finance division say.Personal Finance Software

The amount is 7.99-percent higher than the Tk 2.39-trillion revised allocation in the current fiscal year.

They say subsidy allocations have not been estimated taking into account a potential doubling of fuel-import costs amid the ongoing volatility and caution that if the Gulf conflict persists, additional funding will be required for gas, power and fertiliser subsidies.

Finance Ministry officials also warn that government's interest burden on domestic borrowing could rise further if inflation does not ease and liquidity in the financial sector takes longer to recover.

Further fiscal pressure may arise if the BNP government proceeds with its election pledges to implement "family card" and "farmer card", which would require additional allocations, they note.

The projections emerged at a meeting of the Coordination Council on Fiscal, Monetary and Exchange Rate Affairs held last Friday with Finance Minister Ameer Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury in the chair.

According to documents presented at the meeting, the budget deficit for the next fiscal year has been estimated at Tk 2.35 trillion, or 3.4 per cent of GDP, taking into account the heavy burden of subsidies, incentives and debt obligations. In the revised budget for the current fiscal year, the deficit was set at 3.3 per cent of GDP, amounting to Tk 2.0 trillion.

To finance the deficit, the government plans to borrow Tk 1.19 trillion from domestic sources like banks and savings instruments, while Tk 1.16 trillion from foreign sources, an overall increase of Tk 350 billion, or 17.5 per cent, compared to the current fiscal year.

External borrowing alone is set to surge by over 84 per cent, according to the documents.

Officials note that the government is increasingly leaning towards external borrowing to ease pressure from high-cost domestic debt, as a significant share of interest payments is tied to bank loans and savings certificates.

Interest payments alone are estimated at Tk 1.42 trillion in the next budget, including Tk 1.15 trillion for domestic debt and Tk 270 billion for foreign loans.

However, officials caution that interest expenses could rise further if inflation persists, fuel prices increase, or liquidity conditions in the banking sector fail to improve.

Subsidy allocations, meanwhile, remain under pressure amid global energy-price volatility. The government has earmarked Tk 370.0 billion for the power sector, Tk 65.0 billion for LNG, Tk 270.0 billion for fertiliser and Tk 96.0 billion for food-support programmes.

Total spending on subsidies, incentives and cash loans is set at Tk 1.17 trillion, up from Tk 1.12 trillion in the revised budget.

Officials note that subsidy needs could increase further if the ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to push up fuel-import costs. The finance minister recently informed parliament that higher global fuel prices had already added Tk 360.0 billion in subsidy pressure during March-June of the current fiscal year.

While allocations for agricultural, export and jute incentives are being kept unchanged, remittance incentives are set to rise by Tk 8.0 billion to Tk 70.0 billion, reflecting stronger inflows.

"Expenditures such as interest payments offer little scope for control," says economist and former Director-General of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Dr Mustafa K. Mujeri, adding that the government has scope of controlling such spending in future.Local Business Directory

He told The Financial Express that subsidy spending, financed by public funds, needs to be rationalised through careful targeting.

He suggests phasing out blanket subsidies and limiting support to sectors that do not directly benefit the poor, warning that failure to do so would raise the debt burden on future generations.

Pragati Insurance has recommended a 27% cash dividend and a 3% stock dividend for the year ended 31 December 2025, reflecting a continued effort to reward shareholders while strengthening its capital base.

In the previous year, the insurer paid 20% cash and 7% stock dividend for their shareholders.

According to a disclosure on the stock exchange yesterday, the company will hold its Annual General Meeting on 18 June 2026 via a digital platform. For this, the record date has been fixed for 12 May 2026.

Despite this declaration, the share price of the company decreased yesterday by 2.61% to Tk71 on the Dhaka stock exchange.

End of December 2025, the company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of Tk5.31, marking a slight increase from Tk5.24 in the previous year.

The net asset value (NAV) per share also improved to Tk57.36, compared to Tk53.82 a year earlier, indicating a stronger asset base.

However, net operating cash flow per share declined significantly to Tk1.44 from Tk3.13 in 2024, suggesting a reduction in cash generation from core business operations despite improved profitability.

The company explained that the declaration of bonus shares aims to increase its paid-up capital, which is expected to enhance its financial strength and support expansion.

It further clarified that the stock dividend has been declared from retained earnings, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements.

The company also said that the bonus shares have not been issued from capital reserves, revaluation reserves, or any unrealised gains. Additionally, the retained earnings will remain positive after the dividend distribution, avoiding any negative balance.

The primary objectives of the company are to carry on all kinds of non-life insurance business. The company's non-life insurance products include fire and allied perils insurance, marine cargo and hull insurance, aviation insurance, automobile insurance and miscellaneous insurance.

Market analysts said that while the steady growth in EPS and NAV signals operational stability, the sharp decline in cash flow may raise concerns among investors regarding liquidity and sustainability of earnings.

They suggest investors closely monitor the company's future cash flow trends.

Bangladesh's Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) sector is witnessing a sharp decline in activity, with production down by as much as 30% in recent weeks amid the global energy crisis, rising raw material costs, and frequent load-shedding.

Mirza Nurul Ghani Shovon, President of the National Association of Small and Cottage Industries of Bangladesh (NASCIB), told The Business Standard that the situation is becoming untenable for many small-scale manufacturers.

"The energy crisis has pushed many institutions to the brink of closure. In many cases, production has already dwindled by 25% to 30%," Shovon said.

He noted that without a stable power supply, factories are unable to meet their production target, leading to a massive drop in output across the board.

The sector, which contributes over 28% to the national GDP and employs roughly three crore people, is currently navigating its toughest period since the pandemic.

The leather and chemical-dependent sectors are among the hardest hit. Ilias Hossain, the proprietor of Rajex Leather, revealed that essential production components have become extremely expensive.

"The price of chemicals used in leather processing has doubled, and in some cases, even tripled," Ilias claimed.

He added that the cost of imported raw materials from China – such as gum and pasting – has surged due to global supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. "When raw materials cost this much, the price of every finished product, from belts to footwear, must go up, which then kills consumer demand."

While production is dwindling, sales are also being stifled by operational restrictions. Shofiqul Islam, owner of Topex Leather, pointed out that the government-mandated early closing of shops to save electricity has put businesses in a tight spot.

"We are forced to wind down by 7pm or 8pm. But our primary customers, specially service holders, usually come to shop after their office hours in the evening. Our wholesale and retail sales are taking a massive hit," Shofiqul explained.

Monoranjan Sarker Noyon, proprietor of Manikganj-based Noyon Handicrafts, told TBS that the current economic climate has forced a significant reduction in corporate and wholesale orders.

"Our production hasn't been hit significantly yet, but our orders have definitely decreased," Noyon said, noting that even long-term regular clients are unable to maintain their usual purchase volumes as consumer demand falters at the retail level.

Anwar Hossain Chowdhury, managing director of SME Foundation, echoed these concerns, stating that the impact on marginal and rural entrepreneurs is particularly severe.

"The supply chain is broken. Production and marketing are both suffering a negative impact that is easily predictable and deeply concerning," he added.

Despite the challenges, some niche sectors like handmade crafts remain resilient. Jannatul Ferdous, founder of Bhumi Artisan, noted that while her production isn't fuel-dependent, the overall economic slowdown might eventually weigh on even the most specialised markets.

To prevent a total collapse of the sector, industry leaders are calling for immediate government intervention.

"The banks have moved away from single-digit interest rates and returned to higher tiers," Shovon of NASCIB remarked.

"With production down by 30% and costs rising, these high interest rates will finish us off. The government must ensure a return to single digit interest rate to keep the SME economy alive," he said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today (14 April) projected that Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 4.7% in the current fiscal year (FY26), before slowing to 4.3% in FY27.

The FY26 growth forecast remains unchanged from the IMF's January projection.

Bangladesh's inflation is now expected to rise to 9.2% in FY26, higher than the earlier estimate of 8.9%.

However, the global lender projects inflation to decline sharply to 6% in FY27.

Meanwhile, the government has set a provisional target of 6.5% GDP growth for the next fiscal year, aiming to return to a high-growth trajectory as part of its ambition to build a trillion-dollar economy by 2034.

The government is also targeting an inflation rate of 7.5% in FY27, which is higher than the IMF's projection.

The IMF's growth outlook is more optimistic than forecasts by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, both of which released their projections earlier this month.

On 8 April, the World Bank expected the country's economy to grow by 3.9% in the current fiscal year, before rising to 4.6% in FY27.

The World Bank warned that Bangladesh's economy faces significant challenges with slowing growth and rising poverty for three consecutive years, persistent inflation, a stressed banking sector, weak revenue mobilisation, and subdued private investment, which is further compounded by the headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, on 10 April, Asian Development Bank's latest Asian Development Outlook April 2026 forecasted Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 4% in FY26 and 4.7% in FY27, up from 3.5% in FY25.

Inflation is projected to remain elevated at 9% in FY26, despite some easing, reflecting persistently high global energy prices and ongoing supply disruptions. It is expected to moderate to 8.5% in FY27 as external shocks subside and domestic supply conditions improve, reads the ADB report.

It was warned that the downside to the outlook remains substantial, particularly if the conflict is prolonged.

Disruptions to global energy markets, shipping routes, and supply chains could drive sustained increases in oil and gas prices, intensifying domestic inflationary pressures and complicating ongoing disinflation efforts, thereby constraining macroeconomic policy flexibility.

While the World Bank and Asian Development Bank had lowered Bangladesh’s GDP growth forecast due to the Persian Gulf crisis and domestic vulnerabilities, the International Monetary Fund has kept its earlier projection unchanged.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects Bangladesh’s GDP growth at 4.7 percent for FY2025–26, which was the same as its earlier projection from January.

However, IMF's growth projection is set to dip further to 4.3 percent in the next fiscal.

The World Bank revised its projection down to 3.9 percent growth from 4.6, while the ADB revised its forecast down to 4 percent from its previous projection of 4.7 percent.

Former World Bank Lead Economist Zahid Hussain told The Daily Star that the IMF’s forecast “appears rather strange,” adding that “it is the same as projected in their Article IV report released in January 2026".

The absence of any impact of the war in the current fiscal year is inconsistent with their own assumption that economies with vulnerabilities and limited buffers are likely to be hit hardest. Bangladesh is one such economy.

He also said individuals and firms in Bangladesh have been living with the growth and inflation impact ever since the war started. There is no reason in fact or logic to believe Bangladesh will remain insulated from the impact of the war for four months.

Hussain notes that the IMF’s 4.3% growth projection for FY27 is more realistic if its reference scenario, in which the war shock fades by June, materialises.

The government, however, remains confident, insisting that GDP growth will reach 5 percent in 2026.

A ship named 'MT Great Princess' arrived at Chattogram Port carrying 12,000 tonnes of jet fuel from Singapore this morning (14 April).

The cargo was supplied by Indian Oil Corporation Limited.

Two more ships, 'MT Term Damini' and 'MT Lucia Solis', are expected to arrive tonight with a total of around 68,000 tonnes of diesel.

As of 12 April, Bangladesh had an estimated stock of 22,000 tonnes of jet fuel, which can meet the demand for about two weeks.

The recent consignment has slightly increased the stock. Jet fuel consumption has been relatively low, with 21,000 tonnes sold in the first 12 days of the month, averaging 1,758 tonnes per day, slightly higher than last year.

Diesel consumption is significant in Bangladesh, accounting for about 63% of total energy consumption. The arrival of the two diesel-carrying ships tonight will further contribute to the country's energy supply.

The demand for diesel is high across various sectors such as transport, agriculture, industry, and power. In April, the total demand is around four lakh tonnes according to BPC.

To meet this demand, a detailed import plan has been implemented throughout the month.

At the beginning of April, two ships delivered a total of 61,000 tonnes of diesel on 12 April. Despite this, the demand pressure has not completely eased. Between 1 and 12 April, 133,000 tonnes of diesel were sold at an average daily rate of 11,138 tonnes.

As of 12 April, the available diesel stock was approximately 119,000 tonnes, which could cover the demand for about 10 days.

With the addition of two new shipments, the stock may last a few more days, but the long-term relief depends on continuous imports.

Currently, over 11,000 tonnes of diesel are being sold daily in the country.

BPC Chairman Md Rezanur Rahman told journalists that efforts are being made to source fuel from alternative suppliers to prevent any major crisis this month.

He mentioned that several ships have already arrived, and more are expected to come to ensure an adequate fuel supply.

Bangladesh is scrambling to secure urea imports after an international tender floated last month failed to attract any bidders, with the Aman paddy, the country’s second-largest rice crop, due for planting in June.

Authorities met Russian representatives yesterday to explore a government-to-government deal. At the same time, Dhaka is approaching nearby producers such as Brunei, as well as more distant and less conventional suppliers, including Latvia and Ukraine.

The government has also asked Saudi Arabia, a regular supplier, to consider alternative shipping routes.

Since the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz -- a key artery for global fertiliser trade -- remains closed. It disrupts flows, accounting for roughly 30 percent of global fertiliser shipments.

Requesting anonymity, a senior official at the state-run Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC), said they are currently in discussions with Russia, Latvia, Brunei, and Ukraine to secure imports.

“We are looking to get the fertiliser from these countries as they can ship using routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.

After a meeting with Russian representatives yesterday, he said Moscow is expected to submit a formal proposal soon.

The urgency follows the shutdown of five of the country’s six urea factories because of gas supply concerns after the US-Israel war on Iran. The conflict has reverberated across the Middle East, a crucial hub for fertiliser exports and for natural gas used in domestic production.

Bangladesh needs more than 26 lakh tonnes of urea each year. About three-quarters of demand is met through imports, as local plants often operate below capacity when gas is diverted to other sectors.

Current stocks stand at around 300,000 tonnes, enough to meet demand until June. BCIC previously said it was working to build reserves to cover requirements in the second half of the year.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are Bangladesh’s main suppliers, providing nearly 10 lakh tonnes annually. Since the war broke out, major producers in Qatar and Saudi Arabia declared force majeure and temporarily halted production.

In response to the US-Israel attack, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has compounded supply disruptions, pushing up the cost of fertiliser and the natural gas used to produce it.

According to the World Bank’s latest commodity price data, urea prices have jumped by more than 50 percent compared with levels before the war began on February 28. The average price rose to $725.6 a tonne in March from $472 earlier.

Prices of other fertilisers, including diammonium phosphate (DAP) and triple superphosphate (TSP), have also surged.

In March, as prices climbed and the planting season drew closer, BCIC floated a tender to import 200,000 tonnes of urea. As it failed to attract any offers, a second tender is now underway with the closing deadline on Thursday this week.

Contacted, BCIC Chairman Md Fazlur Rahman said Saudi Arabia has agreed to supply 40,000 tonnes, but the shipment has yet to arrive because of the disruption in Hormuz.

“So, we have requested them to see whether the fertiliser could be shipped via alternative ports that would avoid the Strait of Hormuz and ensure delivery to Bangladesh,” he said.

Rahman said prices rose to $785-$786 a tonne last week and have climbed above $800 this week.

He said that higher prices would swell the subsidy bill, as the government provides urea and other key fertilisers such as DAP and TSP to farmers to ensure food production.

The government has set aside Tk 17,000 crore for fertiliser subsidies in the current fiscal year. Officials expect that figure to exceed Tk 30,000 crore next year if prices remain elevated.

Rahman said efforts are underway to restart factories closed because of gas shortages. “At present, the situation is quite complex and uncertain. We are making every possible effort to overcome this crisis.”

A blog published last week by the International Food Policy Research Institute said that rice production in countries, including Bangladesh, could suffer if fertiliser supplies remain disrupted.

“Rice is fertiliser-intensive and concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, regions heavily dependent on Gulf urea imports. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and much of Southeast Asia source a significant share of their nitrogen fertiliser from Gulf producers,” the authors wrote.

“If higher fertiliser costs persist into the second half of 2026 and coincide with an El Niño event, rice-producing regions could face both rising input costs and less favourable growing conditions at the same time,” it mentioned.