Reinstating the package-VAT system to bring marginal businesses under the tax net is now under active consideration of the government, as compliance with the existing value-added-tax regime remains weak, sources say.

Officials at the National Board of Revenue (NBR) say the move is being made targeting the small and informal businesses that struggle to maintain proper accounts under the current VAT framework.

Package VAT is a fixed monthly amount paid by businesses, typically through their trade associations. The system was abolished in June 2019 following the introduction of the new VAT and Supplementary Duty Act and the VAT Online Project, which aimed to digitise tax collection.

However, NBR officials now acknowledge that bringing businesses in growth centres and retail hubs onto the VAT net has proven difficult, leading to significant revenue losses from the large informal sector.

The existing system, too, has been criticised for giving "discretionary powers" to field-level VAT officials to assess sales and determine payable value-added tax-- often resulting in harassment and allegations of corruption.

"We are overhauling the VAT law to make compliance easier for small and medium enterprises," NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan told members of the Economic Reporters Forum (ERF) at a pre-budget meeting with Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury. Personalfinance advice

"We have not yet been able to effectively implement the standard 15-percent VAT rate. Now we are compiling data on marginal and new SMEs to bring them under a fixed VAT system," he says.

The VAT base remains significantly smaller than the income-tax base, with only about 0.8 million VAT-registered entities compared to 12.8 million income taxpayers, Mr Khan points out the mismatch.

Business leaders have welcomed the proposed move but urged caution in setting the VAT amount.

Md Zahirul Haque Bhuiya, Secretary-General of the Bangladesh Dokan Malik Samity, also acknowledges that the government currently earns little revenue from sectors previously covered under package VAT. Bangladeshtravel guideBangladesh market analysis

However, he warns that excessive rates could discourage compliance.

"When the package VAT was increased sharply -- from Tk 4,200 to Tk 28,000 annually -- many small businesses dropped out of the system," he says .

Efforts to digitise VAT collection through Electronic Cash Registers (ECR) and the Electronic Fiscal Device Management System (EFDMS) have also failed to significantly improve revenue mobilisation from small businesses, he adds.

NBR data show that package -VAT collection had declined steadily before its abolition.

Revenue stood at Tk 23.81 billion in the fiscal year 2015-16 but dropped to Tk 18.91 billion in FY2016-17 after the rate was doubled. Collection had reached a rock-bottom Tk 11.75 billion until February of FY2018-19.

Under the previous system, VAT was fixed based on business location. Annual rates were set at Tk 28,000 for Dhaka and Chattogram city corporations, Tk 20,000 for other city corporations, Tk 14,000 for district towns, and Tk 7,000 for other areas.

Earlier rates ranged between Tk 3,600 and Tk 14,000 before being doubled in FY2016-17.

Business owners allege that corruption among field-level officials also contributed to the decline in compliance.

Solaiman Parsee, a trader in Old Dhaka, says many businesses were willing to pay VAT but were "discouraged by officials seeking bribes".

"A section of VAT inspectors often persuades traders not to pay the official amount and instead demands informal payments," he says about the deprivation of state exchequer by such taxmen who line their own pockets.

He argues that the fixed VAT is not burdensome, noting that the highest annual rate translates to around Tk 76.71 per day.

He also suggests making Business Identification Number (BIN) mandatory to prevent misuse of the system.

However, some experts would like to dislike the reintroduction of package VAT over again.

Dr Abdur Rouf, chairman of the VAT Forum, says the government should prioritise helping small businesses grow instead of imposing fixed taxes.

He also recommends scrapping the turnover tax, arguing that it generates minimal revenue while adding to compliance burdens.

He opines that rather than introducing package VAT, "it shall be much expedient to remove the existing Turnover Tax since collection of TT is less than one -core taka annually, a very insignificant amount".

"Then a good number of SMEs shall go beyond VAT net but government will lose nothing."

He further suggests reduction in trade VAT to 3-5 per cent and abolition of Advance Tax at import stage which is trade VAT in other words.

He thinks introduction of package VAT will seriously undermine the objective of standard VAT and give rise to manifold complications at the field level without any significant impact on VAT collection.

Three years after launch and with 99 percent of its budget unspent, a nearly Tk 1,700 crore customs modernisation project is set to be presented to the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) today with a proposal to extend its deadline and raise costs by nearly 40 percent.

The Customs Modernisation and Infrastructure Development project was launched in April 2023 with World Bank (WB) financing to modernise key customs offices, including Chattogram, Benapole and Dhaka.

It was scheduled for completion by March 2026. As of June 2025, only Tk 5.14 crore had been spent of the original Tk 1,686 crore budget, of which Tk 1,475 crore was a WB loan.

Although Tk 113 crore has been allocated in the current fiscal year, the government is now seeking to extend the project’s duration and increase its cost.

A senior planning ministry official said a revised proposal has been listed for presentation at today’s scheduled Ecnec meeting.

The proposal, seen by The Daily Star, recommends increasing the project cost by 39 percent to Tk 2,344 crore, with the WB loan increasing by 34 percent, or Tk 507 crore. It also proposes extending the deadline to June 30, 2028.

The proposal attributes the cost increase to revisions made at the detailed design stage, after the initial estimate was based on conceptual design.

The earlier exchange rate assumption of Tk 102 per US dollar has been revised to Tk 122. Rising construction rates and higher VAT and tax rates have also contributed to the escalation.

At present, Dhaka Customs handles large volumes of air freight and courier consignments, Chattogram Customs manages 90 percent of the country’s import-export activity, and Benapole Customs oversees the bulk of land trade.

The project will introduce modern infrastructure and technology at these offices to speed up import-export operations, reduce tax evasion, and strengthen the detection of money laundering.

Planned works include construction of office buildings, laboratories, warehouses and residential facilities at Chattogram Customs House, as well as a new building for the Customs, Excise and VAT Training Academy. Baseline, midline and endline time-release studies will be conducted at major customs stations.

A tariff policy implementation plan will also be prepared, the existing tariff structure reviewed, and the feasibility of tariff reforms assessed using ASYCUDA World, National Single Window and Automated Risk Management System software.

US consumer sentiment fell to a record ​low in April as households shrugged off a ceasefire in the war with Iran, remaining focused on the inflation ‌fallout from the conflict.

The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a final reading of 49.8 this month, an all-time low. The reading was a slight improvement, however, from the 47.6 reported earlier in the month.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 48.0. It was at 53.3 ​in March. The deterioration in sentiment was across political party affiliation, and among consumers with investments in the stock market.

The Iran war ​has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, boosting the price of oil, and ultimately the cost of gasoline ⁠and diesel. Prices for other commodities, including fertilizers, petrochemicals and aluminum, which will soon impact consumers, have also surged.

Tehran effectively closed the strait ​after the start of the war on February 28. President Donald Trump this week indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran, though a US Navy blockade ​of Iranian ports remained in effect.

"The Iran conflict appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices," said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. "In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that do not lift supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to buoy consumers."

GASOLINE AND DIESEL ​PRICES INCREASE

The national average retail gasoline price has hovered above $4 a gallon this month, with diesel well above $5 a gallon, data from the US ​Energy Information Administration showed.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll on Friday showed a clear majority of Americans blamed Trump for surging gasoline prices, which are weighing on his Republican Party ahead ‌of November's ⁠congressional midterm elections.

Expensive diesel is likely to raise prices of goods transported by road. Economists said while the correlation between consumer sentiment and spending was weak, they expected households, especially lower-income groups, to scale back on consumption.

"We expect the hit to real disposable income growth from higher gas prices will slow consumption growth," said Grace Zwemmer, a US economist at Oxford Economics. "The impact will be mostly felt by low- and middle-income households, ​since a larger share of their ​overall spending goes toward gasoline."

The ⁠survey's measure of consumer expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to 4.7 percent this month from 3.8 percent in March. April's reading exceeded levels that prevailed in 2024 and remained well above the 2.3 percent-3.0 percent range seen ​in the two years before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Consumers' expectations for inflation over the next five years climbed ​to 3.5 percent from 3.2 percent ⁠last month.

Higher inflation expectations added to a survey from S&P Global on Thursday showing a measure of prices charged by businesses for their goods and services jumped in April to the highest level in nearly four years in strengthening financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would probably not cut ⁠interest rates ​this year.

"More pain will come as higher transportation costs are passed along for food, ​appliances, toys and every other item that travels on a ship, car or plane," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "Sentiment won't improve until the Strait of ​Hormuz is open and there is a permanent end to the conflict."

Raising tax rates on high-income earners without expanding the tax net could backfire, potentially encouraging money laundering and capital flight, the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) said today.

“Raising tax rates on high-income taxpayers may discourage compliant taxpayers and increase the risks of tax evasion or capital flight,” said MCCI President Kamran T Rahman while presenting budget proposals for FY2026-27 at a pre-budget discussion with the National Board of Revenue (NBR) in Dhaka.

“In the context of regional competition, it is essential to keep tax rates reasonable. Expanding the tax base, rather than increasing tax rates, could be a more effective and sustainable solution for boosting revenue,” he added.

The chamber said that maintaining a rational and predictable tax regime is essential to retain investment and ensure compliance in a region marked by growing tax competition.

Instead of raising rates, the trade body recommended broadening the tax base to bring more individuals and businesses, particularly from the informal sector, under the tax net.

Currently, despite having more than one crore registered taxpayers with electronic tax identification numbers (e-TINs), fewer than half regularly file returns, pointing to a structural weakness in the system.

The MCCI proposed introducing a symbolic minimum tax, ranging from Tk 100 to Tk 1,000 annually, along with a simplified one-page digital return-filing system via mobile applications.

"This would encourage first-time taxpayers to enter the formal system and gradually build a culture of compliance," Rahman said.

The chamber also flagged concerns over the effective tax rate faced by businesses, noting that multiple layers of advance income tax (AIT), tax deducted at source (TDS), and various conditionalities often push the actual burden to as high as 40–50 percent, far exceeding statutory rates.

Such distortions reduce the benefits of nominal tax cuts and create disincentives for formal business operations, it said.

MCCI urged policymakers to move towards a simplified, income-based taxation system, reduce conditionalities tied to corporate tax rates, and accelerate digital integration across income tax, VAT, and customs platforms.

It also called for easing compliance requirements, such as the Proof of Submission of Return (PSR), rationalising VAT rates, and ensuring faster, automated input tax credit mechanisms.

For small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which form the backbone of employment and industrial growth, the chamber recommended targeted tax relief, lower turnover taxes, and reduced duties on raw materials to enhance competitiveness.

The MCCI said that revenue policy should balance mobilisation and facilitation, warning that overly aggressive taxation could prove counterproductive in an already fragile economic environment.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) today approved a US$250 million loan to support Bangladesh in operationalising and institutionalising critical reforms to improve the efficiency, coverage, and effectiveness of the country’s social protection system.

The Subprogram 2 of the Second Strengthening Social Resilience Program aims to strengthen protective and preventive social protection measures to reduce vulnerability, exclusion, and poverty risks, said an ADB press release.

The program focuses on improving social protection system management, expanding its coverage and scope, and enhancing protection for vulnerable populations.

ADB Country Director for Bangladesh Hoe Yun Jeong said this program represents an important milestone in Bangladesh’s transition toward a more modern, inclusive, and resilient social protection system.

By expanding coverage for vulnerable groups -- particularly women -- and introducing contributory protection mechanisms, the reforms, introduced by this program, will help reduce poverty risks while supporting long-term economic stability, said ADB country director

“ADB is proud to partner with Bangladesh in building a system that is more efficient, adaptive, and better equipped to promote inclusive growth and shared prosperity” Jeong added.

Reforms under the program include the development of contributory social protection schemes, which are expected to help ease longer-term fiscal pressure.

The widow allowance program will also extend support to at least 250,000 additional vulnerable women, while adaptive social protection will be strengthened through initiative climate adaptive measures under a core workfare program. In addition, access to financial services for women entrepreneurs will increase by at least 15% through the Bangladesh Bank’s targeted refinancing scheme.

The initiatives under the program are expected to generate significant micro-level outcomes, including enhanced productivity and efficiency, increased female labour force participation, and greater poverty reduction -- leading to positive macroeconomic effects and contributing to inclusive economic growth, added the release.

Oil prices extended their gains on Thursday, rising more than $1 ‌in the wake of stalled peace talks between Iran and the United States and as both nations maintained restrictions on the flow of trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures rose $1.26, or 1.2 percent, to $103.17 a barrel at 0630 GMT, after settling above $100 for the first time in ​more than two weeks on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate futures were also up $1.20, or 1.3 percent, at $94.16.

Both benchmarks closed ​more than $3 higher on Wednesday after larger-than-expected gasoline and distillate stock draws in the US, and over the lack of progress on Iran peace talks.

“The oil market is repricing expectations with little sign of progress in ​finding a resolution in the Persian Gulf,” said ING analysts in a note, adding that hopes for a resolution are ​fading as peace talks stall.

“In addition, Iran’s seizure of two vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz suggests disruptions to shipments are set to continue.”

While US President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire between the countries following a request by Pakistani mediators, Iran and the US are still restricting ​the transit of ships through the strait, which carried about 20 percent of daily global oil supplies until the war began on ​February 28.

Iran seized two ships in the waterway on Wednesday, tightening its grip on the strategic chokepoint.

Trump has also maintained a US Navy ‌blockade ⁠of Iran’s trade by sea, and Iranian parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said a full ceasefire only made sense if the blockade was lifted.

The US military has intercepted at least three Iranian-flagged tankers in Asian waters and is redirecting them away from positions near India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, shipping and security sources said on Wednesday.

With his extension of the ​ceasefire on Tuesday, Trump again ​pulled back at the ⁠last moment from warnings to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges. Trump has not set an end date for the extended ceasefire, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

US EXPORTS ​SET A RECORD HIGH

On energy trade, total exports of crude oil and petroleum products from the ​United States climbed ⁠by 137,000 barrels per day to a record 12.88 million bpd as Asian and European countries bought up supplies after disruptions tied to the Iran war.

US crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories ⁠rose by ​1.9 million barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a ​1.2 million-barrel draw.

US gasoline stocks fell by 4.6 million barrels, while analysts had expected a 1.5 million-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles dropped by 3.4 million barrels versus ​expectations for a 2.5 million-barrel drop.

Prime Bank PLC has signed a $30 million term-loan agreement with the Opec Fund for International Development (Opec Fund), an international development finance institution.

The strategic collaboration is expected to significantly enhance Prime Bank’s capacity to support critical trade finance requirements across the country’s small and medium enterprise (SME), agriculture, and corporate sectors.

Faisal Rahman, chief executive officer (current charge) of the bank, and Abdulhamid Alkhalifa, president of the Opec Fund, signed the agreement in Dhaka recently, according to a press release.

Commenting on the partnership, Alkhalifa said, “MSMEs and agribusinesses play a vital role in jobs, food security, and economic resilience in Bangladesh, yet many still struggle to access trade finance.”

“Our partnership with Prime Bank will help unlock new opportunities, diversify exports, and strengthen the country’s private sector. This loan builds on our long-standing collaboration and reflects our commitment to inclusive, sustainable growth,” he added.

Rahman said, “We are delighted to enter into this strategic partnership with the Opec Fund. The three-year expandable term-loan facility will meaningfully enhance our capacity to support the trade financing needs of our valued clients.”

“This collaboration comes at a critical time when businesses are navigating uncertainties in the global economic landscape,” he added.

The Opec Fund’s support reinforces our relationship and reflects its strong confidence in Prime Bank’s governance, operational resilience, and future ambitions in supporting the national economy, the release added.

The facility, structured as a term-loan, will be provided to Prime Bank’s offshore banking unit by the Opec Fund.

It carries an initial tenor of one year, with a provision for extension up to three years.

This financing is expected to strengthen Prime Bank’s trade finance portfolio, providing much-needed stability and support to Bangladeshi businesses navigating complex global economic headwinds.

A US naval blockade of Iranian ports is likely to squeeze Iran’s oil output in the coming weeks but claims it will throw the Islamic republic into economic free fall remain premature, analysts say.

After weeks of bombing and counter-strikes, focus has shifted to the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, which ordinarily carries around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

In response to Iran’s blockade of the strait since the start of the Middle East war, the US imposed a counter-blockade of the Islamic republic’s ports, a push to force its leaders into a compromise in peace talks.

That bid, however, looks set to fail, at least in the short term.

“If the blockade lasts for more than two or three months, it can cause more damage” to Iran, economic analyst and professor at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran Saeed Laylaz told AFP.

“If Iran suffers any damage, the damage to the countries in the southern Persian Gulf will definitely be greater,” he added.

There’s a limit on how long Iran can bide its time, however.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management said Iran “was expected to run out of storage capacity within approximately one month, but it may already be forced to shut in part of its oil production within a couple of weeks”.

‘COLLAPSING FINANCIALLY?’

Trump said Tuesday that Iran was “collapsing financially” under the blockade imposed by the US Navy on April 12, claiming that the country was “starving for cash”.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the blockade meant storage at Iran’s Kharg Island, the main export terminal through which most of the country’s crude is shipped, “will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in”.

Jamie Ingram, managing editor of Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), told AFP it was likely the timeline for Iran to hit its oil storage limits would be measured in “weeks rather than days”.

He added it was likely that “Iran will slightly reduce production before getting to the stage where storage constraints start to bite”.

According to analysis by oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi shared by energy intelligence firm Kpler, Iran’s crude production has already slowed since the start of the war.

Output fell by around 200,000 barrels per day in March to 3.68 million bpd and is expected to drop a further 420,000 bpd in April to about 3.43 million bpd, reflecting “the broader impact of export disruptions and refining constraints linked to the ongoing conflict,” Falakshahi said.

But Laylaz in Tehran said beyond the psychological effect of the blockade, the “real material effect has been small so far”.

Ingram said Kharg Island “shouldn’t be a particular bottleneck,” for Iran.

“This is the final storage facility used before oil is exported and Iran can divert crude oil to other facilities rather than straight to Kharg,” he said.

‘MUTUALLY ASSURED DISRUPTION’

The MEES expert also said Iran’s dependency on oil exports via Hormuz had “deepened due to the damage caused by US and Israeli strikes to other sections of the Iranian economy”.

“But Iran has also proven its ability to withstand huge oil-revenue declines during previous rounds of sanctions. I would not underestimate the regime’s resilience in this regard,” he added.

As the initial two-week truce between Iran and the US was set to expire Trump had said Tuesday he would maintain the ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks.

Iran said it welcomed the efforts by mediator Pakistan but made no other comment on Trump’s announcement, while vowing not to reopen Hormuz so long as the US blockade remains in place.

“It will take a long time before such economic pain forces Iran to compromise,” Ingram said, explaining it is “more likely economic disruption... pushes China into exerting more pressure on Iran to negotiate”.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said “Iran’s economy was battered before the war, is contending with added strains caused during it, and now faces the combination of sanctions, seizures and potential strikes”.

“Iran’s leadership has previously shown a high threshold for pain even if the pressure on ordinary Iranians increases. It also likely calculates that its own efforts to subdue traffic through Hormuz act as a sort of mutually assured disruption,” he added.

Demand for rooftop solar systems across Europe has surged since the start of the Iran war, as households rush to shield themselves from soaring power prices triggered by the worst global energy disruption in history.

The ​conflict has pushed oil, gas and electricity prices sharply higher, hitting companies and households alike and accelerating efforts to find cheaper alternatives and reduce exposure to volatile energy ‌markets.

Solar is among those options, with demand from homeowners more than doubling for some industry players since the war began in late February, according to interviews with more than half a dozen energy equipment wholesalers and renewable utilities in Germany, Britain and the Netherlands.

It’s a timely boost for a technology that accounts for about a third of Europe’s total power capacity, but saw the pace of new installations dip last year for the first time in ​nearly a decade. Industry advocates argue Europe still needs to do far more to cut its reliance on imported oil and gas.

“The war has merely exposed the problem that has ​existed all along: energy dependency,” said Janik Nolden, co-founder of German privately owned solar equipment wholesaler Solarhandel24, adding European governments had been “walking into a trap”.

Solarhandel24 said net sales more than tripled in March to nearly 70 million euros ($82 million) from a year earlier, and are expected to triple again this month to ​as much as 60 million euros. The company plans to expand its workforce by about 85 people, roughly a third, to cope with demand.

To secure supply, Solarhandel24 has stocked up around half a ​million solar panels in recent weeks - a costly decision, Nolden said, but one he sees as worthwhile given the potential for net sales to rise to around 400 million euros in 2026 from about 250 million euros last year.

Germany’s Enpal is seeing a similar trend. The energy firm said orders rose 30 percent year-on-year in March to 130 million euros, while April was on track for a 33 percent increase to about 120 million euros, driven by rooftop ​solar installations.

“This is about European resilience,” said Enpal CEO and founder Mario Kohle. “We are seeing this trend in the defence sector too. Just as Europe must be able to defend itself, we must ​be able to supply our own energy.”

The financial figures from Solarhandel24 and Enpal have not been previously reported.

While aggregated installation data for Europe are not yet available, industry associations in Germany and the Netherlands have confirmed ‌a pickup ⁠in demand since the war began.

Executives say homeowners are increasingly opting for full systems combining solar panels - nearly 90 percent of which are supplied by China - with batteries and electric-vehicle wallboxes, allowing surplus power to be stored and used later.

That trend is also lifting demand for energy storage technologies, which Holland Solar’s Wijnand van Hooff says is seeing demand increases of 40 percent-50 percent.

“This cannot be explained by purely seasonal factors,” said Filip Thon of E.ON (EONGn.DE), , Europe’s largest energy network operator, which also sells rooftop solar systems. Customer requests, he said, have nearly doubled year-on-year.

A STRUCTURAL SHIFT?

Some executives also point to upcoming changes ​to Germany’s renewable energy law as an additional ​driver of demand for rooftop installations, which ⁠typically cost between 10,000 and 20,000 euros for an average family home.

The war-driven surge comes after the pace of new European solar installations slowed, in 2025, according to industry lobby SolarPower Europe, with weak residential demand a key factor following the phase-out of support schemes.

Shares in SMA Solar (S92G.DE), , the world’s third-largest ​solar inverter maker and one of the few remaining European equipment producers, have risen about 50 percent since the war began. The company has ​also reported an uptick in ⁠demand.

“We view the spike in demand as a structural shift that current geopolitical events are accelerating, not creating,” said Ed Janvrin, who heads the solar and heating business at Britain’s OVO Energy, adding April sales in the division were roughly 10 times higher than a year earlier.

Chinese solar manufacturers, however, say any war-related boost in global demand is unlikely to significantly ease the sector’s overcapacity, with China alone having enough ⁠manufacturing capacity to ​meet this year’s expected global demand nearly twice over.

Even so, the surge highlights how geopolitical shocks can rapidly reprice ​the value of renewables, said Jannik Schall, co-founder of German renewables firm 1Komma5Grad, noting that solar demand during the 2022 energy crisis had been even stronger.

“The recurring energy crises prove the renewables sector right.”

Citing three major economic challenges, the government has prepared its position paper ahead of a United Nations hearing on Bangladesh’s request to defer its graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category.

In a virtual meeting of the United Nations Committee for Development Policy (UNCDP) on April 29, Bangladesh will seek a three-year deferral of its scheduled graduation in November this year.

Dhaka plans to highlight a serious gap in preparedness, incomplete core reforms and the economic fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran as key reasons for postponement.

In addition, Bangladesh will raise concerns over vulnerabilities in the financial sector, weaknesses in the banking system, an export slowdown due to volatile global supply chains, high interest rates and an uncertain business and investment climate, said Md Abdur Rahim Khan, additional secretary to the commerce ministry.

Khan, who is also in charge of the commerce secretary, told The Daily Star over the phone that Bangladesh’s case for deferment has strengthened after Nepal, another South Asian LDC set to graduate, also applied to the UN for a three-year extension.

Bangladesh, Nepal and Lao PDR are scheduled to graduate from LDC status on November 24 this year. However, Bangladesh and Nepal have now sought to delay the transition until 2029, citing domestic and external economic pressures.

Earlier on February 19, the newly elected government sent a letter to Jose Antonio Ocampo, chair of the UNCDP, requesting that the preparatory period be extended until November 24, 2029, mentioning that more time is needed to ensure readiness.

Following Bangladesh’s request, the UNCDP discussed the issue at its annual meeting in February and agreed on a process to assess the proposal.

The UNCDP has now called a public hearing on Bangladesh’s request on April 29. After the hearing, the committee will submit its recommendations to the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) in June.

ECOSOC will then forward its assessment to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), which is scheduled to meet in September. The final decision on the deferment will be taken through a vote at the UNGA.

A UN assessment report last month said Bangladesh still faces serious gaps in its readiness for graduation, as its economy continues to be affected by both domestic and international shocks, including the US-Israel war on Iran.

The report highlighted a series of disruptions between 2017 and 2026, including climate vulnerability, the Rohingya crisis, a prolonged macroeconomic slowdown that predated the regime change, the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, and pressure on the balance of payments.

It also noted that while Bangladesh meets all three criteria for graduation, significant risks persist, including the loss of trade preferences, fiscal and financial vulnerabilities and weak institutional coordination.

The report stressed the need for urgent reforms, stronger implementation capacity, adequate policy space and a whole-of-society approach to ensure a smooth and sustainable transition.

It added that a difficult political changeover and prolonged macroeconomic stress have eroded socio-economic gains, increasing risks linked to graduation.

Rising import costs for fossil fuels have created operational constraints, with gas shortages worsening due to the Middle East conflict, the report said. Economic growth slowed from 7.1 percent in FY22 to 3.5 percent in FY25, weakening momentum ahead of graduation.

Inflation has outpaced wages, pushing millions into hardship and vulnerability.

Private investment has also weakened, with capital machinery imports falling from $5.1 billion to $2.8 billion during the 2019-2024 period. The labour market has also come under pressure, with nearly 1.9 million jobs lost between 2023 and 2024, disproportionately affecting women.

The Bank Resolution Act-2026, passed with new provisions added overnight, is effectively rehabilitating bank looters and putting the entire banking sector at risk, economic experts, academics, and activists said yesterday.

Clause 18(a) of the law could allow those who previously looted the sector in a planned manner to regain ownership, the speakers warned at a roundtable organised by Voice for Reform at the BDBL building in Karwan Bazar, Dhaka.

Badiul Alam Majumdar, secretary of Shushashoner Jonno Nagorik (Shujan), noted that many of those who looted the sector are yet to be brought to justice.

He said all masterminds behind the takeover of Islami Bank Bangladesh, including S Alam, should be held accountable.

He outlined three steps needed to put the banking sector on a firm footing. First, identifying and ensuring exemplary punishment for perpetrators of banking fraud. Second, implementing systemic reforms such as cashless transactions to prevent recurrence. Lastly, completing institutional reforms, including making Bangladesh Bank an independent constitutional body.

AKM Waresul Karim, dean of the School of Business and Economics at North South University, said the government had resorted to “very low-grade tactics” over the proposed ordinance.

He criticised the Bank Resolution Act as one of its provisions allows shareholders who held ownership immediately before a bank was placed under resolution to apply for reinstatement.

He said the provision blocks the return of long-standing institutional owners like Kuwait Finance House while opening the door for those who acquired ownership by creating “pressure through the DGFI” or through other unethical means.

Toufic Ahmad Choudhury, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM), called for bringing willful defaulters to book, saying that no resolution measures would yield results unless those responsible for the current crisis are punished.

He also cautioned that rescheduled loans should not have their default status changed until fully repaid – a rule routinely flouted as elections approach, when defaulters reschedule debts.

“Through this process, they remove themselves from the list of defaulters and become ‘regular’ borrowers. Subsequently, they take the opportunity to secure hundreds of crores of taka in additional loans from the same banks,” he said.

Shawkat Hossain Masum, head of online at Prothom Alo, said it was inevitable that some banks in the country would reach the point of insolvency.

He stated that in November 2022, the central bank claimed that there were no problems in the banking sector, even though the real situation was more or less known to everyone. “It was not that Bangladesh Bank was unaware; rather, it was either helpless in the face of politicisation, complicit in it, or both.”

He claimed that the interim government opted for merging troubled banks as “no government wants to bear the stigma” of closing banks.

Considering various realities, he said merging two weak banks and making the initiative successful is already very difficult. “Expecting five weak banks to merge and succeed together is a very remote aspiration.”

Meanwhile, Professor Mushtaq Khan of SOAS University of London said the interim government should have nationalised or confiscated assets of individuals involved in bank looting.

“Failing to do so was a major mistake,” he said, noting that the manner of the looting makes recovery through collateral seizure difficult.

Sarwar Tusher, a joint convener of the National Citizen Party (NCP), accused the current BNP-led government of setting “extreme examples of politicisation” in the economy within two months of taking office.

Criticising BB Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman, the NCP leader said the governor was a “politically affiliated individual” who reportedly has “past links with S Alam”.

He went on to allege that several ministers of the new government have connections with the controversial business group, warning that a major crisis in the banking sector, similar to that in the energy sector, may be imminent.

Shams Mahmud, former president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry, said Islami Bank was captured through the stock market.

Instead of direct acquisition as entrepreneurs, the bank’s shares were quietly purchased through various anonymous groups and later transferred to a specific group, he added.

“Even if the front door is closed through banking laws, such looting cannot be stopped if the back door, like the stock market, remains open,” said Mahmud.

Asif Khan, president of CFA Society Bangladesh, suggested issuing long-term bonds to depositors as an immediate measure to heal the deep wounds in the banking sector.

He said that while small depositors could be fully repaid, larger depositors might need to accept some “haircut,” or partial losses.

Bangladesh’s mobile and broadband internet services rank among the worst in the world despite a large subscriber base, and a connectivity-led reform plan is being prepared to address the challenge, Rehan Asad, the prime minister’s adviser on telecom and ICT, said yesterday.

Speaking at a seminar titled “New Telecom Policy: Expectations of Entrepreneurs”, organised by the Telecom and Technology Reporters Network Bangladesh, he said the government sees better connectivity as the key to solving long-standing structural problems in the sector.

“Nothing is more important than connectivity for this government. And that connectivity means both mobile and broadband services. It is not either-or -- it is both,” he said.

Asad said Bangladesh is among the top 10 countries by mobile subscriptions, but service quality remains very poor.

“Even in South Asia, Nepal and Bhutan are ahead of us,” he said.

He added that broadband services are also weak. “In broadband, we are in an equally bad or worse position -- 141st out of 153 countries in terms of service quality,” he said.

“These are not my findings. They come from global reports by GSMA and the International Telecommunication Union,” he added.

He said the government plans to fix these problems by rapidly expanding mobile and broadband infrastructure.

“We want to connect 90 percent of the population with 5G and provide 100 Mbps internet to 90 percent of users,” he said.

He said the goal is to ensure consistent internet service across both urban and rural areas, so users no longer face uncertainty in accessing basic connectivity.

The second priority is to build a unified digital ecosystem through a nationwide digital identity system.

He explained that each citizen will receive a digital ID linked to a digital wallet that can connect with banking and mobile financial services.

The government is studying global models such as Singapore’s Singpass and Estonia’s digital system, with plans to begin rollout within the next 12 to 18 months.

The third priority is to turn Bangladesh into an AI-enabled economy, he said, adding that artificial intelligence will be introduced in education and industry.

The fourth priority is reforming the telecom tax system.

“When someone recharges Tk 100, they receive only Tk 62 worth of service. The remaining Tk 38 goes to the government,” he said.

“We want to examine the whole value chain so that a person can receive Tk 80 to Tk 90 worth of service.”

He added that Bangladesh is the third-largest collector of telecom taxes globally, which also affects affordability, including access to smartphones.

Asad said the reforms will require coordination between industry players and government agencies, and that discussions with stakeholders are already underway.

Not all problems will be solved immediately, he said, adding that the current work marks the start of a longer reform process.

Sumon Ahmed Sabir, deputy managing director of Fiber@Home, said at the event that policies and guidelines enacted by the interim government unfairly allowed foreign entities to obtain licences across multiple layers.

“The cross-layer empowerment of foreign entities could ultimately lead to ‘super-dominance’ in mobile infrastructure by one or two companies,” he said.

He also warned of risks to national security and data governance.

Some representatives of local companies at the event also alleged that the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) formulated policies and guidelines without adequate consultation with industry stakeholders.

Md Emdad Ul Bari, chairman of the BTRC, stated that their claims were unfounded.

BTRC had conducted extensive consultations with industry players, academia, and government bodies during the policy formulation process, he said.

Bari added that the primary objective of the regulator was to ensure that the policies serve the industry as a whole.

He also noted that the guidelines and policies are currently being reviewed again, in consultation with the newly elected government.

The Ministry of Finance has earmarked Tk 1.17 trillion, or 39 per cent of the proposed Tk 3.0-trillion Annual Development Programme (ADP), for the next fiscal year, as block and special allocations across various sectors.Banking sector news

The remaining Tk 1.83 trillion, or 61 per cent of the ADP, is set to be allocated to ongoing projects under different ministries and divisions, according to sources at the Ministry of Planning.

Officials said the Finance Division on Tuesday sent the final ministry-wise expenditure ceilings for ADP allocations for the next fiscal year to the Programming Division of the Planning Commission.

The allocations will be finalised after distribution among projects before being placed at a meeting of the National Economic Council (NEC) for approval.

A review shows that more than Tk 1.07 trillion of the proposed allocation has been kept as block allocation to facilitate approval of new projects. In addition, Tk 97.98 billion has been set aside to meet special needs of local government bodies.

Around 80 per cent of the proposed allocations for several ministries and divisions -- including the Medical Education and Family Welfare Division, Health Services Division, and the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education -- has been kept as block allocation.

Experts and economists say several ministries and divisions often fail to utilise even their project-specific allocations, raising concerns that block allocations may remain underutilised and merely inflate the size of the ADP.

The Local Government Division has proposed the highest allocation in the proposed ADP at Tk 362.28 billion, reflecting continued priority on local infrastructure and service delivery.

It is followed by the Road Transport and Highways Division with Tk 310.65 billion, underscoring strong emphasis on transport connectivity.

The Health Services Division ranks third with Tk 268.08 billion, while Tk 213.48 billion has been proposed for the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education.

The Secondary and Higher Education Division has been allocated Tk 208.35 billion, indicating sustained focus on human capital development.

In the energy sector, the Power Division has been earmarked Tk 192.86 billion, while the Science and Technology Division will receive Tk 173.16 billion. The shipping sector has received the lowest allocation among the listed divisions at Tk 109.69 billion.

Overall, the allocation pattern highlights continued priority on infrastructure, energy and social sectors.

In terms of block allocation, the Health Services Division tops the list with Tk 208.0 billion, accounting for 77.59 per cent of its total allocation, followed by the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education with Tk 162.99 billion.

Secondary and Higher Education has received Tk 115.0 billion, representing 55.19 per cent of its total allocation, while the Medical Education and Family Welfare Division shows the highest reliance on block allocation at Tk 68.0 billion, or 80.52 per cent.

In other key sectors, the Technical and Madrasha Education Division has received Tk 30.79 billion in block allocation, more than half of its proposed allocation, while agriculture shows a relatively lower share at Tk 17.0 billion, or 25.99 per cent.

Economist Dr Mustafa K Mujeri, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), said several ministries -- particularly in health and education -- are unable to utilise even their project-based allocations effectively.Bangladesh market report

"In this context, it is questionable what role block allocations would play for such ministries," he said, raising concerns over their efficiency and absorption capacity.

"Utilisation of block allocations depends on approval of new projects, which is very difficult," he added,

warning that such allocations may only serve to expand the size of the ADP.

Former Planning Division secretary Md Mamun Al Rashid also criticised the practice, saying block allocations are not earmarked for specific projects and may lead to inefficient spending.

"When there is no defined project or sector, such funds often end up being spent on unnecessary areas later," he said, adding that large block allocations create scope for misuse and wastage of public resources.

Sources said the ADP size for the current fiscal year was initially set at Tk 2.3 trillion but later revised to Tk 2.0 trillion.

The proposed ADP for the next fiscal year stands at Tk 3.0 trillion, with Tk 1.9 trillion expected from domestic sources and Tk 1.1 trillion from external financing.

Even though fuel supply in the country has increased, with higher allocations and improved depot dispatches easing some of the earlier pressure at filling stations, persistent gaps in supply management and uneven distribution continue to blunt the impact on the ground.

On paper, availability appears more stable, but in reality, public ordeal has not eased as expected, with long queues and persistent pressure still visible across most areas.

Agriculture-dependent regions such as Naogaon are facing an added strain from diesel shortages, with farmers often returning empty-handed as pumps run out of fuel needed for irrigation, putting them at risk of significant crop losses amid ongoing watering difficulties.

Dhaka: Queues shorten, but demand pressure remains

In the capital, fuel supply has improved, with most filling stations receiving higher volumes of petrol and octane. This has reduced extreme congestion, but queues remain visible.

At 1:30pm yesterday (22 April), the queue at Ramna Filling Station stretched from Matsya Bhaban past Shilpakala Academy to Birdem Hospital – still long, but significantly shorter than earlier weeks when it extended up to the Public Works Department.

Motorcycles were receiving Tk800-Tk1,000 worth of fuel, while cars were supplied Tk2,000 worth.

Pump owner Nazmul Haque said daily supply has increased from 18,000 litres to 22,500 litres. "From my long experience, to eliminate long waiting times at filling stations, the government will have to increase supply further," he said.

At Meghna Model Star Service in Paribagh, a steady flow of vehicles moved in and out throughout the afternoon. Assistant Manager Ahmed Rushd said supply has doubled compared to earlier levels.

"We started sales this morning with 27,000 litres of octane and 10,000 litres of petrol. More fuel will arrive again at night," he said.

However, nearby Purbal Traders had no fuel stock. Cashier Dulal said the station received 13,500 litres on 20 April but none on 21 April. Despite a 20% announced increase in octane supply, he said the benefit has not materialised due to the pump's tanker capacity limits of 13,500 litres.

Savar: Supply improves, congestion unchanged

In Savar, queues persist despite increased supply. Around 65% of stations reportedly have no petrol or octane, while operational outlets face concentrated pressure. Birulia Filling & LPG Station had only 268 litres of octane yesterday morning.

Consumers continue to feel the strain. Md Shoaib Hossain said, "I have been waiting for three hours and still haven't received fuel." Motorcyclist Sakib added, "The same long lines remain. If I get Tk300 worth of fuel after hours of waiting, how far will that take me?"

Operators say depot-level rationing prevents simultaneous distribution, shifting demand to a limited number of functioning pumps.

Around 70% of stations have diesel, but frequent load-shedding continues to disrupt supply.

At Lalon CNG & Refuelling Station, manager Ahmed said supply has remained inconsistent since the shortage began, and the promised increase in allocation has yet to arrive.

SI Chowdhury Filling Station manager Mostak Ahmed echoed the same experience, saying supply has improved in volume but remains irregular. "Earlier, we wouldn't get octane for five to six days; now it comes every three to four days in 4,500-litre batches. But the issue is consistency. Because supply is not regular and not all pumps receive fuel at the same time, pressure remains. Supply may have increased, but customer pressure is still the same," he said.

The same pattern is reflected at the association level. Bangladesh Petroleum Dealers, Distributors, Agents and Petrol Pump Owners Association convener Syed Sazzadul Karim Kabul told The Business Standard there is still no real improvement. "The lines may look shorter, but nozzles are running nonstop as customer flow continues," he said.

He added that queues alone do not capture the full picture, as oil companies continue to supply fuel in an uncoordinated way, often sending 2,000, 3,000 or 4,000 litres per station at their own discretion rather than through a uniform distribution system.

Sazzadul also noted that ongoing load-shedding is worsening diesel shortages, with rural areas facing 7-8 hours of power cuts. He warned that rising irrigation demand in the coming days is likely to put additional strain on already stretched supplies.

Sylhet: Demand surge offsets supply gains

In Sylhet, small increases in depot supply have not translated into real relief at the pump level. Dealers say what looks like an improvement on paper is not being felt in reality.

Riasad Azim Adnan, acting president of the Sylhet District Petrol Pump Owners Association, said, "The increase exists on paper rather than in practice." He noted allocations have risen from 100 litres to 120 litres, but added, "We are not actually receiving higher quantities as announced."

At the same time, demand has shot up sharply. "Earlier, my pump sold 6,000-7,000 litres of octane per day. Now it is 14,000 to 16,000 litres," he said. "We cannot fully explain this surge. It could be panic buying or even smuggling across the border."

Zubayer Ahmed Chowdhury, divisional committee president of petroleum dealers, said local production should first meet local demand. "If local demand is met, there will be no shortage," he said. He added that one extra truck every four days is being supplied, but "this is not having any meaningful impact."

Naogaon: Farmers under irrigation pressure

The fuel situation in Naogaon is hitting hardest where it matters most – agriculture. With the irrigation season underway, diesel shortages are directly affecting farming activity.

Farmer Atikul Islam said around 90% of the land in the area is agricultural. "Even after going to nearby filling stations for diesel for irrigation pumps, most of the time we do not get fuel," he said.

UNO Shaheen Mahmud said supply has not kept pace with demand. "We have sent letters, requesting increased diesel supply to agricultural areas. We hope the situation will stabilise within a week," he said.

Bogura coordination committee official and Deputy District Magistrate Md Masud Hossain confirmed that supply has increased after price adjustments, but said exact figures are not available: "I can confirm that supply has been raised."

Atithi Filling Station representative Abu Toha added, "Fuel supply has increased slightly, but it is still below current demand."

Although Expat Welfare Minister Ariful Haque Choudhury said yesterday that the situation should return to normal within two to three days, consumers remain sceptical. Truck driver Habibur Rahman, waiting in a fuel queue, said, "The situation will take time to normalise."

Pressure eases in Khulna

Unlike most other areas, field observation at Ferry Ghat intersection in Khulna, Meghna Filling Station, was seen to have a relaxed demand. Around noon, only 10-12 motorcycles were in the queue, with each receiving Tk500-Tk700 worth of petrol or octane.

Just five days earlier, hundreds of motorcycles would crowd the same station, with a cap of around Tk300 per vehicle.

Station manager Masud said supply has improved significantly. "Earlier, we received one tanker a day. Now supply has increased by nearly one and a half times," he said, adding that higher allocations across stations have reduced the need for long queues.

At the Power House intersection, the KCC Filling Station also showed lighter pressure. Motorcyclist Humayun Ahmed said, "There used to be 20-30 vehicles ahead of me. Now there is almost no queue. I can even fill a full tank these days."

A Jamuna Oil official said earlier supply disruptions had halted open-market drum sales, forcing all demand onto filling stations. "Now, limited drum supply has resumed, which has eased pressure slightly," he said, adding that further supply in the open market would gradually help stabilise the situation.

State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Anindya Islam Amit announced yesterday that the government has secured sufficient fuel supply to meet demand in May, with preparations underway for June and July.

Banglalink and Elon Musk’s SpaceX have jointly applied to the telecom regulator in Bangladesh to launch trials of telecom services through satellite, allowing users’ smartphones to connect directly to satellites through a mobile operator’s network.

In a recent letter seen by The Daily Star, the companies sought approval from the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) for an initial 60-day test and trial period to integrate satellite connectivity into Banglalink’s network.

“This system will provide supplemental mobile connectivity using over 650 Starlink Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) satellites, which initially will deliver SMS and, at a later stage, light-data capabilities to Banglalink subscribers, particularly during periods when terrestrial networks are damaged or unavailable,” the letter said.

It said the commercial arrangement will integrate Starlink Direct-to-Cell satellite connectivity into Banglalink’s mobile network in Bangladesh.

The letter describes the initiative as a first-of-its-kind partnership in Bangladesh aimed at expanding connectivity, particularly in disaster-prone and remote areas where conventional terrestrial networks are unavailable.

The companies said the proposed service would help address long-standing coverage gaps.

This development comes after Kaan Terzioglu, chief executive officer of Veon, told The Daily Star last month that the company aims to replicate the technology it is already using in Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

To prepare for a commercial rollout, Banglalink and SpaceX requested regulatory support.

The testing will use mobile frequencies authorised for Banglalink’s operations, specifically the 2110–2115 MHz downlink range and 1920–1925 MHz uplink range, where Banglalink is the sole authorised spectrum user.

The companies said the service would initially be offered as a supplementary service under Banglalink’s existing licence and would comply with regulatory obligations, including Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements.

“Subject to regulatory approval, the testing is expected to commence in April 2026 and will focus on integrating Banglalink’s terrestrial mobile service with Starlink’s Direct-to-Cell satellites in Bangladesh. No commercial service will be offered to Banglalink’s customers during the testing phase.”

Alongside the trial, the companies also urged the regulator to support necessary regulatory changes to enable satellite-based mobile services.

The trial demonstrations will take place at mutually agreed locations within Banglalink’s licensed service areas in Bangladesh and will operate within Banglalink’s authorised frequency ranges.

The companies highlighted the potential of satellite-to-mobile services to bridge the digital divide and ensure connectivity during emergencies.

They added that the system would allow users to connect via widely available LTE devices. LTE (Long-Term Evolution) is a 4G mobile network technology that provides high-speed data for smartphones.

Citing global use cases, the companies said the system had already been deployed in emergency situations.

They also requested the commission to grant approval for the commercial launch immediately after the test and trial.

Md Emdad Ul Bari, chairman of the BTRC, said they are assessing the letter and that a decision will be taken after obtaining the government’s opinion on the matter.

Unlike traditional mobile networks that rely on ground-based towers, Starlink’s direct-to-cell technology uses satellites as cell towers in space. This allows ordinary mobile phones to connect directly, expanding coverage to areas with little or no ground infrastructure.

In a statement yesterday, Banglalink announced a collaboration with Starlink Mobile to introduce the satellite-to-mobile service.

Johan Buse, chief executive officer of Banglalink, said, “Connectivity is about care -- it matters most when it reaches people wherever they are. Some communities remain beyond the reach of traditional networks because of our unique geography.

“By providing satellite-enabled coverage with Starlink, we aim to bridge those gaps and ensure people can stay connected, even in the most remote parts of the country.”

Stocks at the Dhaka Stock Exchange extended their gains today (22 April), with turnover crossing the Tk1,000-crore mark for the first time in two months as investors increased purchases of oversold and fundamentally strong shares.

Turnover at the premier bourse rose 13.67% to Tk1,056 crore from Tk929 crore in the previous session, marking the highest level since 17 February, when turnover stood at Tk1,222 crore.

The benchmark DSEX index gained 41 points to close at 5,299, while the blue-chip DS30 index rose 20 points to 2,005. The Shariah-based DSES index also edged up by 3 points to finish at 1,066.

Total market capitalisation increased by Tk2,587 crore to Tk6,86,184.18 crore, reflecting stronger investor participation and improved trading activity.

Market breadth remained sharply positive, as 213 issues advanced compared to 121 declining, with 57 stocks unchanged.

According to market insiders, the stock market had been maintaining a positive momentum following the election, but the ongoing Middle-East conflict interrupted that trend and created pressure throughout the month. As a result, the market moved into an oversold position, creating fresh buying opportunities for investors seeking fundamentally strong stocks at lower prices.

Declining yields on government securities encouraged a portion of funds to shift towards the stock market in search of better returns.

At the same time, investors are showing growing interest in December closing companies that are expected to declare attractive dividends. This buying interest has increased trading floor activity despite continued geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, leading to a higher volume of share transactions in the market.

However, large investors are still closely monitoring both domestic and international economic uncertainties. Analysts warn that if the Middle-East conflict worsens further, the market could face renewed pressure. For this reason, institutional and major investors are still maintaining a cautious investment approach despite the recent recovery in market activity.

Among the top gainers, Desh Garments led with a 9.96% rise, followed by Purabi Gen Insurance 9.95% and Samata Leather Complex, up 9.92%. Besides, Bangladesh Lamps, Bangas, Rupali Bank, Agni Systems, Monno Fabrics, Anwar Galvanising, and Mir Akhter Hossain Limited were placed at the top ten gainer list.

On the losing side, Shepherd Industries suffered the biggest drop at 7.59%, followed by Nahee Aluminum down 7.52%, and ICB Employees Provident MF 1: Scheme, which fell 7.89%.

In its daily market review, EBL Securities said that the capital bourse staged a strong recovery, buoyed by improved investor sentiment following the emerging signals of a potential ceasefire extension in the Middle East conflict, prompting continued accumulation of beaten-down scrips in anticipation of improved market momentum.

Market indices tracked a firm upward trajectory from the outset of the session with predominant buying interest, while investor participation strengthened steadily as the session progressed, driving broad-based price appreciation across most of the scrips, according to the commentary.

On the sectoral front, Engineering dominated turnover with a 17.3% share, followed by Textile at 13.9% and General Insurance at 13.5%.

Most sectors ended the session on a positive note. Financial Institutions rose 2.0%, Banks gained 1.7%, and Paper advanced 1.4%, leading the gainers.

On the other hand, a few sectors saw corrections. Tannery declined 0.7%, Ceramic fell 0.7%, and Services slipped 0.6%.

Meanwhile, the Chittagong Stock Exchange also closed in positive territory today. The Selective Categories' Index gained 37.0 points, while the All Share Price Index rose 60.4 points.

Bangladesh’s economy is facing renewed pressure from global geopolitical tensions and commodity market disruptions, with risks of elevated inflation, slower growth and mounting fiscal strain, according to Eric Robertsen, global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered.

In an interview with The Daily Star, Robertsen said financial markets appear “overly optimistic” about a swift resolution of the ongoing Gulf tensions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies.

If shipping resumes soon, it could take weeks or months for oil, gas and petrochemical supply chains to normalise, prolonging price pressures worldwide, Eric Robertsen said
He added that even if shipping resumes soon, it could take weeks or months for oil, gas and petrochemical supply chains to normalise, prolonging price pressures worldwide.

“Even when the Strait reopens, it will take time for exports to normalise and for supply chains to stabilise,” he said, adding that such shocks typically leave behind persistent economic damage across vulnerable economies.

He explained that governments tend to follow a predictable policy response during commodity crises, starting with subsidies to cushion consumers and businesses, followed by price caps, rationing and, in some cases, more aggressive interventions.

“What we have seen in this crisis is that many economies, particularly in Asia, have moved through all these steps very quickly,” he said, adding that such measures come at a high fiscal cost.

“There will be a negative impact on fiscal balances as governments step in to support their economies,” he added.

Robertsen also flagged rising risks of stagflation -- a combination of high inflation and weak growth, particularly for emerging economies like Bangladesh.

“The inflation impact is immediate in a commodity shock, but the hit to growth comes with a lag,” he said.

Bangladesh has been witnessing persistently high inflation for the last three years.

“Higher energy prices reduce disposable income and investment capacity, which ultimately weakens demand,” Robertsen said.

He cautioned that central banks face a difficult balancing act in such an environment.

“If policy tightening happens too early or too aggressively, it could worsen the growth outlook,” he said.

However, he noted a key relief factor in the current crisis: the absence of a sharp appreciation of the US dollar.

“This has not turned into a currency crisis, which is extraordinarily good news for central banks,” he said.

About the global outlook, Robertsen highlighted four key risks for emerging economies: higher inflation, weaker growth, potential policy missteps and deteriorating fiscal balances.

“For the next two quarters, there is a need to build a higher risk premium into both market expectations and economic forecasts,” he said.

He also pointed to a longer-term structural shift in the global economy.

“We are moving into a world where control over commodities becomes both an economic and geopolitical tool,” he said, citing recent examples of export restrictions on energy products and critical inputs.

“One of the key lessons is the importance of maintaining strategic reserves of oil and gas,” he said. “Many countries have learned the hard way that they were underprepared.”

As a result, he expects global energy prices to remain structurally higher even after the current crisis subsides.

Naser Ezaz Bijoy, the chief executive officer of Standard Chartered Bangladesh, said in the same interview that Bangladesh’s ongoing economic challenges have been building over several years.

“Bangladesh’s current challenges did not begin with the war. They started during Covid-19, followed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which created foreign currency pressures,” he said.

“There was a strong expectation that after the political transition, investment would pick up and economic activity would accelerate,” Bijoy said. “However, fresh external disruptions have continued to weigh on the outlook.”

He stressed that limited fiscal capacity remains a core constraint.

“Our tax-to-GDP ratio is weak, and revenue collection has been consistently low,” he said, warning that this leaves the country with less room to respond to shocks.

Government decisions to adjust administered prices, particularly in energy, are also adding to cost pressures.

“The government initially deferred price adjustments due to political sensitivities, but ultimately had little choice but to implement them,” he said, adding that such measures would inevitably affect both inflation and the cost of doing business.

At the same time, he emphasised that ensuring an uninterrupted energy supply is more critical than keeping prices low.

Bijoy also pointed to setbacks in external financing discussions. “The IMF negotiations did not progress as expected, which is another hurdle,” he said, adding that the issue would require high-level policy attention.

On the external sector, Bijoy said export performance has weakened in recent months, particularly in Europe.

“The decline in exports began around August,” he said, attributing it to softer demand, higher costs and intensifying competition from countries such as China and India.

Buyers are also changing sourcing strategies.

“They are increasingly diversifying and consolidating orders with larger suppliers who are better equipped to meet sustainability standards and manage risks,” he said.

Despite the slowdown, Bijoy does not foresee a sharp downturn. “We are seeing a modest dip in exports, around 4.5 percent, which may reach 5 to 5.5 percent. It is not a catastrophic situation,” he said.

Bangladesh’s garment industry does not have overproduction capacity that could harm the American manufacturing sector and is free from forced labour, as exporters comply with internationally recognised labour laws, according to the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA).

The association made the remarks in a position paper submitted to the commerce ministry as the government prepares to attend a hearing of an investigation launched by the United States Trade Representative (USTR) on April 29.

The probe covers alleged overproduction capacity and forced labour in 60 countries, including Bangladesh.

Responding to the USTR’s “structural excess capacity” or “overproduction” concerns, the BGMEA said the terms do not have a universally accepted definition or measurable benchmark.

It argued that in a market-driven economy, production levels constantly adjust to shifts in demand, input costs and supply chain conditions. Determining “excess capacity” without clear parameters or methodology is a major challenge.

The association added that Bangladesh’s apparel sector has not expanded suddenly or in a way that would indicate structural excess capacity. The industry’s growth should be viewed over the long-term.

Over the past decade, the sector has followed a steady growth path, it said, driven by global demand and changing sourcing strategies rather than policy-induced expansion.

After more than four decades of development, Bangladesh exported garment products worth $39.3 billion in fiscal year 2024-25, accounting for nearly 7 percent of the global apparel market. It is now the world’s second-largest garment exporter after China.

In 2025, Bangladesh accounted for 10.73 percent of US apparel imports by volume and 10.53 percent by value, according to the American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA).

The BGMEA said the dominance of the sector in national exports shows structural constraints in economic diversification and reliance on a single industry, rather than excessive industrial capacity.

It added that the concentration of resources in apparel should be seen as part of a development pathway, not as evidence of overcapacity.

From a US perspective, the association said Bangladesh primarily exports labour-intensive, low to mid-priced apparel that is not produced in the US in significant volumes. In domestic production, the US focuses on advanced manufacturing and heavy industries rather than basic clothing items such as T-shirts and casual wear.

As a result, such imports do not adversely impact US manufacturing, but instead support consumers by providing affordable clothing, particularly for low and middle-income households, it added.

The BGMEA said Bangladesh’s role in the global apparel value chain complements the US economy.

It also said the government provides policy support, including cash incentives, to offset structural disadvantages such as inadequate infrastructure, longer lead times and limited backward linkage industries.

These factors add an additional seven to ten days of transit time and increase logistics costs, conditions that are not faced by competitors such as China, India and Vietnam.

On allegations of forced labour, the BGMEA said Bangladesh maintains a firm and unequivocal position that there is no forced labour in its export-oriented garment sector.

It said the industry operates under a strong legal and institutional framework that ensures compliance with national labour laws and internationally recognised standards.

Citing the official US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) dashboard, the BGMEA said 55 Withhold Release Orders (WROs) are currently active across all industries.

A WRO is a command by US Customs to stop, and hold imported goods at the border if they are suspected of being made with forced labour. A thorough review of the database confirms that there is no instance of any WRO issued against Bangladesh.

Rancon Auto Industries Ltd (RAIL) has entered a strategic partnership with Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation to manufacture vehicles in Bangladesh for sale in domestic and regional markets.

Under the agreement, Mitsubishi will take a 25 percent equity stake in Rancon Auto, which began local production of the Mitsubishi Xpander in June last year.

Announcing the joint venture at an event at Sheraton Dhaka yesterday, Rancon Holdings Group Managing Director Romo Rouf Chowdhury said the partnership would mark a major step forward for the country’s automotive sector.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, State Minister for Civil Aviation M Rashiduzzaman Millat and Japanese Ambassador to Bangladesh Saida Shinichi were present at the event.

Rancon Holdings Group Managing Director Chowdhury said, “The landmark strategic alliance -- the first of its kind in the country’s automotive sector -- underscores the strength of Bangladesh-Japan trade relations.”

He added that the strategic investment is expected to enhance access to affordable and convenient vehicle financing, expand after-sales services, ensure spare parts availability, and strengthen distribution networks across the country.

“It will also facilitate the transfer of technology and knowledge to develop a highly skilled local workforce, while contributing to government revenue through VAT and taxes,” said Chowdhury, adding the company’s automobile arm has gradually built its manufacturing base since starting operations in 2017.

Rancon Auto, which focuses on multi-brand vehicle manufacturing and assembly, began with the local assembly of the Mitsubishi Outlander. It later expanded its portfolio to include the Fuso BM117, Mercedes OF1623, Proton X70, as well as trucks and pickups from JAC and GMC.

The company upgraded its factory in 2023 with a modern paint facility. The following year, it launched the locally painted and assembled Mitsubishi Xpander, which quickly gained traction, with monthly sales exceeding 100 units, making it the highest-selling brand-new vehicle in Bangladesh.

Despite this growth, Chowdhury said the country’s automobile market remains largely underdeveloped.

With one of the lowest per capita vehicle ownership rates in the region and a population of around 200 million, he said Bangladesh offers strong long-term demand potential as the middle class expands.

Against this backdrop, Rancon initiated discussions with Mitsubishi Corporation to leverage its manufacturing and distribution expertise. The talks culminated in the joint venture, under which Mitsubishi Corporation acquired a 25 percent stake in Rancon Auto Industries through direct foreign investment.

“This is a proud moment for us,” Chowdhury said, adding that the partnership reflects growing international confidence in Bangladesh’s industrial prospects.

He said it could be the first instance of direct foreign investment in four-wheel vehicle manufacturing in the country.

Chowdhury expressed hope that the move would encourage other global players to invest, helping build a stronger automotive manufacturing ecosystem capable of generating employment and eventually developing into an export hub.

He also pointed to regional examples such as Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, India and Pakistan, which have developed established automotive industries with export capacity.

Japanese Ambassador to Bangladesh Saida Shinichi described the joint venture between Mitsubishi and Rancon as a “significant milestone”, crediting engineers, technicians and government officials for their roles in bringing the project to fruition.

He said Mitsubishi had begun training Rancon engineers in 2024, followed by the launch of Xpander assembly in June last year, calling it evidence of strong collaboration between the two sides.

The envoy also highlighted Bangladesh’s efforts to improve the investment climate, including its first Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan, signed in February, and initiatives such as the “Investment Gateway”.

He said the Mitsubishi Xpander is the only locally assembled Japanese-brand vehicle in Bangladesh, calling it the country’s first “made-in-Bangladesh” Japanese car.

He added that local assembly could support wider industrial development, including technology transfer, job creation and growth in upstream industries such as parts manufacturing.

Hiroyuki Egami, senior vice-president and division COO of Mitsubishi Corporation, reaffirmed the company’s commitment to bringing its global automotive expertise to the partnership.

In his speech, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury described the Mitsubishi-Rancon joint venture as a “refreshing change” for an automobile sector long dependent on imported vehicles.

“Bangladesh has traditionally depended on cars imported from Japan, Europe and the United States, a pattern that had become a way of life,” he said, adding that local assembly with a global brand like Mitsubishi marks a significant turning point.

He said Rancon’s experience in the automobile market makes it a suitable partner and expressed confidence that the collaboration would grow “from strength to strength”.

The minister highlighted the venture’s wider economic impact, pointing to its potential to raise value addition, create jobs and support industrial development, particularly in light engineering.

He added that the government is planning a dedicated zone for light engineering industries to support such initiatives.

At the programme, State Minister for Civil Aviation M Rashiduzzaman Millat announced that direct flights between Dhaka and Tokyo would resume next month, restoring a key air link between Bangladesh and Japan after a prolonged suspension.

He said the resumption would strengthen connectivity, facilitate trade and business, and deepen people-to-people ties between the two countries.

“You will be happy to know that we are starting flights to Tokyo from next month,” he said, adding that the move was expected to boost bilateral engagement on multiple fronts.

Inflation is likely to remain high and reach 8.6 percent in the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) due to higher energy prices driven by the war in the Middle East, according to BMI, a provider of insights, data and analytics.

The firm, owned by Fitch Solutions, said inflation may remain above the Bangladesh Bank’s (BB) 6.5 percent target set in its latest monetary policy.

It added in its report on Bangladesh published on Tuesday that this is partly due to base effects from low food price inflation during FY26.

Inflation averaged 10 percent in FY25, up from 9.7 percent in the previous year. It is expected to stay high at 9 percent in FY26, according to the Asian Development Bank in its April issue of the Asian Development Outlook.

The ADB projects inflation at 8.5 percent in FY27 as external shocks ease and domestic supply conditions improve.

BMI said that as inflation is expected to remain high, the BB may keep the policy rate unchanged at 10 percent in FY27 instead of cutting it, as it had previously projected.

“Our revised forecast reflects high projected inflation, a recent decline in long-term borrowing costs, and a renewed need for International Monetary Fund (IMF) financing,” said the report.

It added that the Iran conflict would add 0.13 percentage points to headline inflation in the coming fiscal year through higher energy prices.

“Elevated inflation threatens the BB’s price stability mission, making a rate cut in FY27 difficult to justify,” it said, adding that rising energy prices have made rate cuts untenable for many central banks worldwide.

The report said surging inflation in recent years has eroded real wages in Bangladesh, particularly for industry workers, who make up 21 percent of the economy’s labour force. Although salary declines have slowed in 2025, this follows five consecutive years of falling real wages, it added.

“An uncontrolled supply-side shock to inflation will worsen this problem. This will make the BB even more cautious about cutting rates, which could cause inflation to run unchecked.”

BMI also said falling long-term borrowing costs are another reason to keep the policy rate high. The 10-year treasury yield has trended down since January 2025, even though the policy rate remains elevated.

“Over the same period, credit growth has surged, driven by higher government borrowing. Apart from fuelling inflation, looser credit could also shift financial flows towards lower-quality investments. This is likely given the fragility of Bangladesh’s banking sector,” it said.

The report also noted the government’s request for $3 billion in financial support from the IMF and the World Bank.

“The government’s spending needs are real. Aside from cushioning the impact of the Iran conflict on Bangladeshi households, Dhaka will likely have to recapitalise several banks as it reforms the financial sector,” it said.

It added that IMF support is likely to depend on the government maintaining a degree of macroeconomic stability.

“Keeping monetary policy tight when economic conditions support it would help preserve confidence among international investors in Bangladesh’s medium-term prospects,” it said.