After more than 35 years in commercial banking, I have seen a troubling pattern: persistently high non-performing loans, limited product innovation, weak risk management, a shortage of capable and transformational leadership, and undue interference by owner directors. Over time, these have become almost normal. They are compounded by uneven central bank supervision, outdated technology and limited institutional capacity to respond to shocks.

Meanwhile, global banking is changing rapidly. Technological advances, shifting customer expectations and new economic realities are reshaping how banks operate. Some institutions are struggling to keep up; others are moving ahead with stronger governance, modern systems and forward-looking strategies. This widening gap poses a pressing question: what will banking look like in the coming decade, and can our local banks remain competitive?

There are signs of progress. Several commercial banks in Bangladesh have begun centralising operations to improve efficiency and oversight. Effective centralisation brings large corporate and retail branches under unified control, strengthening governance while improving risk management and customer service. At the same time, the expansion of digital banking services is making transactions quicker, simpler and more accessible.

Banks are also placing greater emphasis on customer relationship management (CRM). Many have invested heavily in technology and staff training, and that effort is set to continue. Customers initially faced disruption, but many are now seeing the benefits. Banks are working to understand each client’s overall financial needs and to offer tailored solutions. Relationship managers (RMs) are being deployed to integrate corporate banking, foreign exchange and personal financial services, enabling clients to access a full range of services through a single point of contact.

Lending strategies are shifting as well. Banks increasingly recognise that heavy reliance on traditional instruments such as cash credit is unsustainable. The focus is moving towards mobilising low-cost deposits and boosting profitability through a more balanced mix of corporate and retail banking.

To support this transition, banks are investing in digital platforms, data analytics, artificial intelligence and blockchain. AI, including generative AI, is beginning to transform financial services by enabling personalised advice and sharper market insights. Robo-advisers, for example, can analyse market trends and customer behaviour to provide recommendations aligned with individual risk profiles.

AI is also improving efficiency. Chatbots now handle routine enquiries such as account balances or transaction histories, cutting waiting times and operating costs. More advanced tools can assess financial statements, support credit decisions, detect fraud in real time and streamline processes, including customer onboarding, loan approvals and regulatory reporting. These innovations enhance service quality while reducing administrative pressure.

The revenue model must evolve, too. A balanced bank should aim for an equal split between interest income and fee-based income. Leading institutions are placing greater weight on fee-based services such as corporate advisory, foreign exchange, structured finance and syndication, where risks are shared. This reduces dependence on traditional lending and strengthens balance sheet resilience.

Risk management will determine future success. To manage interest rate volatility, banks are prioritising short-term, low-cost deposits over long-term liabilities. At the same time, they must develop robust credit policies aligned with emerging investment trends and economic needs.

Ultimately, the future of banking will be shaped by technology, market forces and rising customer expectations. Banks can no longer confine themselves to deposit-taking and lending. They must expand into wealth management, integrate with fintech platforms and ensure secure, technology-driven transactions.

In an era defined by globalisation and rapid technological change, continuous transformation is essential for survival. Banks that fail to adapt will become irrelevant. The message is unmistakable: banking cannot continue the way it is.

Global orders to build liquefied natural gas carriers (LNGC) are set to rebound this year after a 2025 slump as growing LNG ​output and vessel fuel efficiency drive demand, industry executives and analysts say.

The rise in orders is offsetting concerns that supply disruptions from the ‌US-Iran war may reduce near-term shipping demand and pressure freight rates.

Since late last year, shipbuilders in South Korea and China have received more orders, with 35 new LNGC builds contracted in the first quarter, according to consultancies Poten & Partners and Drewry.

By comparison, 37 LNGCs were ordered in all of 2025, with a record 171 orders placed in 2022, Drewry data shows. Each tanker costs $250 million-$260 ​million, and takes over three years to build.

Upcoming LNG production in the US, Africa, Canada and Argentina will generate tanker demand, along with a push ​towards fuel efficiency and accelerated vessel demolitions, said Pratiksha Negi, Drewry’s lead analyst for LNG shipping, with steam turbine and diesel-electric carriers expected to be phased out.

FLEXIBLE US VOLUMES

The global LNGC fleet numbers over 700 vessels, which handle the more than 400 million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG supply.

Some ​72 mtpa of new LNG capacity was approved globally last year, and more than 120 mtpa of new US LNG supply is coming to market in the next 3-4 ​years, said Fraser Carson, principal analyst, global LNG at Wood Mackenzie.

The growth of US LNG and flexible LNG supply creates trading patterns that require more shipping, he said.

US LNG is typically sold on a free-on-board basis with destination flexibility, allowing mid-voyage diversions that can tie up vessels for longer.

Japan’s Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, the world’s largest LNGC fleet owner with 107 vessels, expects US LNG supply ​investment to spur tanker orders, CEO Jotaro Tamura said.

The company plans to grow its LNGC fleet to approximately 150 vessels by around 2035.

Meanwhile, the demolition of steam-propelled LNGCs ​has accelerated since 2022 to a record 15 vessels last year, Drewry data showed, due to poor economics and tighter emissions regulations.

A proposed framework by the International Maritime Organization to cut ‌shipping emissions is also driving demand for new builds, said Uma Dutt, vice president, LNG at global ship management firm Anglo-Eastern, as the industry switches to dual-fuel vessels that can run on LNG.

WAR COMPLICATES OUTLOOK

The Iran war, however, presents conflicting signals for LNG shipping. Supply disruptions are pushing Asian LNG buyers towards alternative sources like Atlantic basin supply, increasing travel distances for ships. It could also boost demand for LNG projects elsewhere, lifting overall demand for more carriers, said Wood Mackenzie’s Carson.

But on the other hand, the war has also ​disrupted LNG flows through the Strait of ​Hormuz and sidelined 12.8 mtpa of Qatari ⁠capacity for three to five years, which could curb shipping demand and weigh on freight rates at a time where an “avalanche” of ship supply is already coming, he said.

Qatar, which operates over 100 LNGCs, will add 70-80 new builds over the next ​3-4 years while the UAE’s ADNOC is expected to double its fleet to 18 within 36 months, said Carson.

“Most of these ​new build vessels were ⁠earmarked to serve under-construction LNG projects that are now facing delays,” he said.

“The longer those delays persist, the more likely it is that these ships are offered to the market on sublet arrangements -softening rates considerably.”

Poten & Partners and Drewry expect a record 90-100 LNGCs to be delivered this year, up from 79 in 2025.

However, Drewry’s Negi said seven of nine ⁠LNGCs initially scheduled ​for delivery this year and now pushed back to 2027-28 are linked to QatarEnergy.

Poten & Partners senior ​LNG analyst Irwin Yeo said some firms may delay placing big new build orders due to uncertainties triggered by the war.

“Market uncertainty and rising shipbuilding costs, including labour and raw materials amid the current Middle ​East crisis could deter some from placing orders.”

Experience Clothing Company Limited, a UK-owned garment manufacturer, has renewed its lease at the Dhaka Export Processing Zone for another 30 years after completing its initial term.

The company has invested $15.16 million in the zone since its establishment and currently employs 2,485 Bangladeshi nationals, according to a press release.

Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (Bepza) Executive Director for Investment Promotion Md Tanvir Hossain and Experience Clothing Company Director Zulfiquar Maqsood signed the renewal agreement today at a ceremony attended by senior Bepza officials.

Bepza said the renewal reflects continued foreign investor confidence in Bangladesh's investment climate.

Iran has offered to ease its restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz if the United States lifts its blockade and brings an end to the war, according to two regional officials familiar with the proposal.

The offer, reportedly conveyed to Washington through Pakistan, would postpone discussions on Iran's nuclear programme- an issue US officials insist must be part of any agreement.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signalled resistance to such a deal, saying any agreement must ensure Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons.

Despite a fragile ceasefire, tensions remain high over the strategically vital waterway, which handles about one-fifth of global oil and gas trade. Iran's restrictions and the US blockade have disrupted energy supplies, pushing oil prices sharply higher and straining global markets.

Brent crude prices have risen significantly since the conflict began, exceeding $108 per barrel yesterday (27 April).

The proposal comes amid growing international pressure to reopen the strait. Dozens of countries, in a joint statement led by Bahrain, called for restoring access, while UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of mounting humanitarian and economic consequences.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticised Washington's handling of the conflict, while French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot urged all sides to de-escalate, stressing that key maritime routes should remain open.

Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg, as diplomatic efforts continue to revive stalled negotiations.

Pakistan and other mediators are attempting to bridge the gaps between Tehran and Washington, but significant differences remain, particularly over Iran's nuclear ambitions and the conditions for lifting the blockade.

The conflict, which began on 28 February, has led to thousands of deaths across the region and continues to fuel instability despite ongoing ceasefire efforts.

India and New Zealand today signed a Free Trade Agreement in New Delhi under which New Delhi will get 100% duty-free access for some products and expanded market access for labour-intensive sectors of textiles, leather, footwear, engineering goods and processed food sectors.

India's farms, fisheries and factories will get zero-duty market access on 100% of exports.

On the other hand, India has offered market access in 70% lines covering 95% of New Zealand's trade with India.

To ensure protection to Indian farmers, rural economies and the domestic industry, market access for New Zealand under the agreement keeps out dairy, key agricultural products, coffee, milk, cream, cheese, yoghurt, whey, caseins, onions, sugar, spices, edible oils and rubber, an official statement said.

The agreement was signed by Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal and New Zealand's Minister for Trade and Investment Todd McClay.

The FTA, wrapped up in about a year after the launch of negotiations on 16 March 2025, is expected to facilitate increased trade and investment flows by improving market access, reducing barriers, and establishing clear and predictable rules, said the statement.

It will support businesses of all sizes, including small and medium enterprises, ensuring wider distribution of the benefits of trade.

The signing ceremony brought together businesses and industry leaders from both countries, with Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay leading a cross-party delegation of Members of Parliament and over 30 New Zealand businesses.

"The signing of the India–New Zealand Free Trade Agreement marks a new and significant chapter in the bilateral relationship, reflecting shared ambition, deepening engagement, and a commitment to mutually beneficial growth," said McClay.

He said the agreement "reflects a balanced, forward-looking, and practical outcome" and both sides will now work closely towards effective implementation and delivery of the agreement.

New Zealand is India's second-largest trading partner in the Oceania region, with bilateral trade valued at around $1.3 billion.

Goyal said this is India's ninth FTA in the past few years with 38 developed countries.

At the heart of the FTA with New Zealand is the empowerment for exports, agricultural productivity, student mobility, skills, investment and services.

He said New Zealand has made an investment commitment of $20 billion in India.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), in a report, has identified five key priority reform areas for Bangladesh to strengthen its investment climate, enhance competitiveness, and support sustainable, investment-led growth in the years ahead.

The report highlights both progress and persistent challenges in Bangladesh's investment climate since the 2013 Investment Policy Review (IPR). While acknowledging important reforms, it stresses the need for deeper and more sustained structural changes—particularly as the country prepares to graduate from Least Developed Country (LDC) status.

It also underscores the importance of ensuring a smooth transition as Bangladesh faces the gradual withdrawal of preferential treatment under various international agreements, amid evolving global trade and geopolitical dynamics.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), UNCTAD and the Investment Development Authority (Bida) jointly launched the UNCTAD Investment Policy Review (IPR) Implementation Report for Bangladesh at Bida building in the capital yesterday (27 April).

The high-level dialogue brought together senior government officials, private sector representatives, and development partners to discuss strengthening the country's investment framework in preparation for LDC graduation.

To strengthen the investment climate, the report outlines five priority reforms as below:

Firstly, the report calls for the development of a national investment policy alongside a consolidated investment law to bolster investor confidence and support a coordinated, whole-of-government approach to attracting and effectively utilising foreign direct investment (FDI) in line with national development objectives.

Secondly, the report put emphasis on enhancing investment promotion and facilitation to improve service delivery and attract higher-quality investments.

Thirdly, it focuses on sectors identified in the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Heatmap, recommending targeted interventions to drive growth and stronger institutional coordination to ensure alignment on sectoral priorities.

Fourthly, the report underscores the need for mitigating the effects of losing preferential Least Developed Country (LDC) status by engaging key trade and investment partners and strengthening the competitiveness of the domestic private sector in the post-LDC context.

And lastly, the UN report stresses on removing key bottlenecks to investment by improving access to land and infrastructure, which remain critical constraints for the potential investors.

The report also found that Bangladesh lags significantly behind its regional peers in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). According to the findings, Vietnam's FDI stock is approximately 13 times higher than Bangladesh's, Indonesia's nearly 17 times higher, and Cambodia's about three times higher. This relatively low FDI stock highlights weaker inflows and several underlying structural constraints.

In 2024, Bangladesh's FDI stock stood at $18.29 billion, compared to $249.14 billion in Vietnam, $305.66 billion in Indonesia, and $52.66 billion in Cambodia, says the report.

Presenting the findings of the report, Legal Officer of UNCTAD's Investment and Enterprise Division Kiyoshi Adachi noted that most of the Investment Policy Review recommendations for Bangladesh have only been partially implemented.

"It is a somewhat subjective grading, but most recommendations fall into the partially implemented category," he said, adding that systematic tracking of progress remains essential.

He also highlighted weak inter-agency coordination, pointing to a mismatch between the sectors identified in Bida's FDI Heatmap—such as semiconductors, electric vehicle batteries, and technical textiles—and their reflection in the national industrial policy.

Adachi also noted that the Investment Act of 1980 is outdated, lacking clear consolidation of FDI rules and well-defined investor treatment provisions. He pointed out that entry procedures still involve multiple approvals and suffer from limited transparency. Although digitalisation efforts are underway, they remain constrained by continued reliance on manual processes.

He further highlighted ongoing challenges related to foreign exchange repatriation, land access, infrastructure limitations, and restricted skilled labour mobility, including the absence of a dedicated personal visa scheme.

Bida Executive Chairman Chowdhury Ashik Mahmud Bin Harun stressed that Bangladesh must "shift gears" to attract global investment. "If we have been operating in second gear so far, we now need to move into fifth gear," he said, underscoring the importance of competitiveness and alignment with global standards.

UNDP Resident Representative in Bangladesh Stefan Liller emphasised that coherent policies and strong institutional capacity are critical to attracting responsible investment that generates employment and promotes inclusive growth.

Chief Executive Officer of BUILD Ferdous Ara Begum said "Her organisation has compiled an updated business licensing guidebook covering more than 600 licences. Including renewals, the total number of licences may range from 500 to 1,200."

She also noted that starting a business in Bangladesh—across manufacturing, services, or trade—initially requires around 23 licences. Based on data from citizen charters, obtaining these approvals takes an estimated 477 days.

Referring to a Cabinet Division directive issued in 2000, Begum further explained that ministries were instructed to publish timelines for administrative procedures. BUILD's analysis, based on these official timelines, shows that completing the required processes to start a business takes approximately 477 days.

She said that if starting a manufacturing business alone takes this long, other sectors may require even more time. "In that respect, the top priority should be reducing the number of steps, shortening the time, and simplifying the process," she said, adding that this remains one of the private sector's biggest challenges. She also noted that the private sector has already submitted several recommendations to address these issues.

Ferdous Ara Begum also commented on the proposed plan to merge five investment-related regulatory and promotional agencies with Bida, PPP, Beza, Bepza, BHTPA and BSIC.

She said such institutional consolidation could help improve coordination, reduce duplication, and streamline investment services. However, she stressed that its success will depend on how effectively the reform is implemented and whether the merged structure can ensure faster and more efficient decision-making for investors.

Regarding the National Board of Revenue (NBR), Ferdous Ara Begum said the tax system remains one of the biggest challenges for Bangladesh's private sector. She noted that although various reforms are underway, significant issues persist in tax policies.

The report concludes that key achievements include the establishment of Bida as the lead investment facilitation agency and the expansion of digital investment services. However, it recommends adopting a unified national investment policy, enacting a consolidated investment law, and fully digitalising investment procedures to enhance competitiveness ahead of LDC graduation.

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supplies of crucial raw materials and pushed up prices of the printed circuit boards (PCB) used in almost all electronic devices, from smartphones and computers to AI servers, industry sources and executives said.

The disruption is a fresh blow to electronics manufacturers which are already grappling with soaring memory chip costs and highlights the broadening impact of the Iran war that has wreaked havoc on supply chains, plastics, and oil supplies.

Iran struck Saudi Arabia's Jubail petrochemical complex in early April, forcing a halt in production of high-purity polyphenylene ether (PPE) resin — a critical base material used to manufacture PCB laminates.

SABIC, which accounts for approximately 70% of the world's high-purity PPE supply and operates in the Jubail complex on the Gulf coast, has been unable to resume output, severely tightening the availability of the material worldwide, according to one source. Shipping in and out of the Gulf has also been severely disrupted by the war.

PCB prices have been climbing since late last year, driven by a growing appetite for AI servers. Demand has been accelerating sharply since March as manufacturers scramble to secure raw material supplies and soften the impact of skyrocketing costs, three industry sources told Reuters.

In April alone, PCB prices surged as much as 40% from March, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent note. Cloud service providers are willing to accept further increases as they expect demand will outstrip supplies over the coming years, they added.

The global PCB industry is projected to increase by 12.5% to reach $95.8 billion in 2026, according to a recent report from Prismark.

Daeduck Electronics, a South Korean PCB maker whose customers include Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and AMD, has begun discussions with customers over price increases, a senior executive at the company told Reuters.

The executive, who declined to be named due to sensitivity of the subject, said his priority has now changed from meeting customers to suppliers, as the waiting time for chemical materials such as epoxy resin has stretched to 15 weeks from three weeks previously.

The sharp rise in PCB prices was also driven by a shortage of other key materials, including glass fibre and copper foil, according to one source. Copper foil prices have surged as much as 30% so far this year, with the rally gaining momentum in March, the source added.

Copper accounts for around 60% of total raw material costs in PCB manufacturing, according to Victory Giant Technology, a major Chinese PCB supplier for Nvidia. The Chinese firm warned earlier this month that the Middle East conflict could push up prices for key materials including resin and copper.

Multi-layer PCBs can cost around 1,394 yuan ($204) per square metre, with higher-end models for AI servers costing around 13,475 yuan, according to Victory Giant.

The first of the two units of the Rooppur Nuclear plants, with a combined capacity of 2,400 megawatts (MW), is set to begin its operational procedures, following the fuel loading today, raising hope that it will likely help Bangladesh better manage its power demand.

With approximately 300MW of power from the first unit (1,200MW) coming online by August 2026, the country will likely be able to harness its optimal benefits during the summer of 2027, as it takes 10 to 12 months to operate it in full capacity.

Given the power crunch Bangladesh experiences due to scorching heat and rising demand for cooling in summers, this nuclear power plant has the potential to partially alleviate these challenges next summer. Besides, this baseload power plant can partly support in times of uncertainty that force the government to reduce fossil fuel imports, which ultimately have knock-on effects in the power sector.

The VVER nuclear plant's designed economic life is 60 years to generate stable power and thus can help the imported fossil-fuel-dependent country considerably, especially by limiting volatile and expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the future.

While there is no publicly available information on tariffs, it is expected that the cost of power from the nuclear plant will be lower than the country's average grid-based power generation cost. If the cost can be kept within Tk10 per kWh, it will help the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) rein in the rising power generation costs and associated pressure to raise power tariffs.

Looking ahead, once the country brings the second nuclear unit online, Bangladesh will likely have a substantial baseload capacity, including its gas- and coal-based plants, sufficient to meet the country's power demand even beyond 2030, considering the country's subdued growth in demand. This power system capacity eventually opens opportunities for a significant renewable energy expansion, relying on both decentralised and utility-scale projects.

As baseload nuclear plants offer a significant opportunity, Bangladesh can use them judiciously to reduce load-shedding and dependence on imported carbon-intensive fuels in the near term. Over time, scaling up renewable energy will be critical to strengthening the country's energy security and resilience.

-This report was prepared based on a phone conversation with Shafiqul Alam, lead energy analyst for Bangladesh at Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

Chinese regulators have blocked Meta's planned acquisition of artificial intelligence start-up Manus, a deal estimated at about $2 billion, citing restrictions on foreign investment.

The National Development and Reform Commission prohibited the transaction and ordered both parties to withdraw, according to details of the decision, reports the BBC.

Manus has drawn attention for what it describes as "truly autonomous" agents, technology designed to independently plan, execute and complete tasks based on initial instructions, rather than relying on continuous user prompts. Analysts had viewed the capability as a "natural fit" for Meta's push into artificial intelligence under Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg.

The regulatory intervention reflects concerns tied to Manus's origins. Although now headquartered in Singapore, the company was founded and previously based in China, making it subject to rules governing the export or sale of technology to foreign entities.

The review process has also involved legal complications. In March, Manus's two co-founders were placed under exit bans, preventing them from leaving China while authorities examined the deal.

Despite the block, Meta has said the Manus team is already "deeply integrated" into its operations, working to expand the service for millions of users. That level of integration could complicate efforts to "unwind" the arrangement.

The decision comes amid broader tensions between the United States and China over advanced technologies. The White House has said it plans to work with US companies to counter what it called "industrial-scale campaigns" by foreign actors, particularly in China, to appropriate AI innovations. Chinese officials, in turn, have criticised what they describe as the "unjustified suppression" of Chinese firms and say the country is emerging as a global "innovation lab".

Within Meta, the development coincides with a period of restructuring as the company increases spending on AI. It recently announced plans to cut about one in ten jobs, its largest round of layoffs since 2023. Meta has said it hopes for an "appropriate resolution" to the regulatory review and maintains that the transaction complied with applicable laws.

After four consecutive sessions of gains, the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) ended lower today (27 April) as investors booked short-term profits amid cautious sentiment and ongoing market uncertainty.

Selling pressure dominated most sectors throughout the session, pushing the benchmark DSEX, along with the DS30 and Shariah-based DSES indices, into negative territory.

Market participants said the recent rally prompted many investors to lock in gains, while global developments, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic uncertainty also contributed to cautious trading.
The DSEX fell 16 points to close at 5,301. The DS30 index dropped 9 points to 2,018, while the DSES declined 10 points to 1,057.

Market breadth remained sharply negative, with 102 stocks advancing against 223 declining and 67 remaining unchanged. Turnover also fell 2.7% to Tk956 crore from Tk982 crore in the previous session.

In its daily market review, EBL Securities said the market reversed after recent gains as investors reshuffled portfolios amid earnings disclosures, domestic economic signals, and geopolitical developments. It added that although the market started firm and held gains mid-session, broad-based selling in the final trading hour dragged indices lower.

Sector-wise, the General Insurance sector led turnover with 16.1%, followed by Banking at 13.0% and Textile at 11.6%. Most sectors ended lower, with Ceramics declining 2.0%, while Paper and Textile both fell 1.3%. General Insurance was the only major gaining sector, rising 2.9%.

Meanwhile, the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) also closed in the red. The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) dropped 18.9 points, while the All Share Price Index (CASPI) fell 35.8 points at the close of trading.

Oil prices were up more than 1 percent on Monday as peace talks ‌between the US and Iran stalled while shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supplies tight.

Brent crude futures rose $1.35, or 1.3 percent, to $106.68 a barrel by ​0453 GMT, retreating from early session gains of over $2 a barrel. ​ US West Texas Intermediate was at $95.35 a barrel, up 95 cents, or 1 percent.

Last week, Brent and WTI gained nearly 17 percent and 13 percent, respectively, ​the biggest weekly gains since the start of the war.

Hopes of reviving peace ​efforts receded during the weekend when US President Donald Trump scrapped a planned trip to Islamabad by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, even as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas ​Araqchi arrived in Pakistan.

“President Trump’s recent post on Truth Social, urging to shoot ​and kill any Iranian boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside his claims ‌of having full control over Hormuz, has continued to fuel elevated war premiums,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, analyst at Phillip Nova.

Tehran has largely closed the strait while Washington has imposed a blockade of Iran’s ports. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ​remained limited, with ​just one oil products tanker entering the Gulf on Sunday, shipping data from Kpler showed.

Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for the fourth ​quarter to $90 a barrel for Brent crude and $83 for ​WTI, citing reduced output from the Middle East.

“The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high ​refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the ​unprecedented scale of the shock,” GS analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note on Sunday.

The US has stepped in to shield the global economy from the oil crunch triggered by the Iran war by boosting exports, selectively easing sanctions and tapping strategic reserves. The conflict may be denting Washington’s standing in some quarters, but it is also cementing its transformation into the world’s dominant energy superpower.

Unlike in previous oil crises, the Organization ​of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has been left largely powerless. The near-hermetic closure of the Strait of Hormuz trapped 13 percent of global oil supplies in the Gulf and forced Gulf producers to shut in ‌around 9 million barrels per day of output, stripping the group of its most potent lever: spare production capacity.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude exporter and Opec’s de facto leader, has maximized exports through its alternative pipeline route bypassing Hormuz via the Red Sea. But even that has been insufficient to offset the scale of the disruption.

Enter the United States.

With the world’s largest oil industry – surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia in production in 2018 – and the currency underpinning the global trading system, the US has extraordinary leverage over energy markets. This power is comparable, in some ​respects, to Opec’s historic ability to recalibrate output in response to shifts in global supply and demand. And Washington hasn’t been shy about using it.

OIL FIREPOWER

US oil exports have soared in recent weeks, helping to ​temper the acute energy supply shock emanating from the Middle East, including the refined product squeeze.

Total US oil exports earlier this month hit an all-time high of 12.9 million bpd, of which refined products accounted for over 60 percent, according to Energy Information Administration data.

Seaborne US oil exports are set to climb to a record 9.6 million bpd in April, with flows to Asia nearly doubling ​from pre-war levels to 2.5 million bpd, according to data analytics firm Kpler.

This surge has helped cushion Asian economies - among the most exposed to Gulf supply losses - from even sharper price spikes.

For US producers, the Iran war has ​delivered a sizeable windfall. The value of crude and refined product exports has increased by around $32 billion compared with pre-war prices, according to ROI calculations, boosting both corporate earnings and tax receipts.

American oil firepower does not end with production. Washington agreed in March to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in several tranches through 2027 as part of a coordinated global emergency drawdown of 400 million barrels.

The SPR stood at around 405 million barrels by April 17, down from 415 million barrels at ​the start of the war - meaning the buffer against further supply shortages remains ample.

THE SANCTIONED BARRELS

Washington has yet another tool to influence global energy supplies: economic sanctions.

Since March, the US has selectively loosened restrictions on purchases of Russian and Iranian oil. The ​Trump administration on April 17 renewed a waiver allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil at sea for about a month.

The impact has been swift. Volumes of Russian oil stored on tankers fell from a record high of more than 13 ‌million barrels at the end of January to just 2.9 million barrels by April 24, as buyers swarmed back in.

By bolstering Moscow and Tehran’s revenues - even temporarily - these measures are arguably undermining broader US foreign policy goals.

The US administration has recently backtracked on part of this strategy. It did not renew a separate 30-day waiver issued on March 20 that allowed purchases of around 140 million barrels of Iranian oil held at sea and simultaneously imposed its own Hormuz blockade to squeeze Tehran’s revenues.

Sanctions will always involve a delicate balance between exacting pressure and limiting collateral damage to the global energy system. But the US is still the one calling the shots.

Taken together, these measures show how the ​US has emerged as a de facto “swing supplier” - and ​what Uncle Sam giveth, he can also taketh away.

US President Donald Trump could, in theory, impose restrictions or outright bans on some US energy exports to cool rising domestic fuel prices - an especially sensitive political issue ahead of the midterm elections in November. Such a move would almost certainly send international energy prices sharply higher.

An export ban remains unlikely, however. It would risk severe ​disruption to US oil production and refining systems that are structurally geared toward exporting surplus volumes. It would also strain relations with allies in Asia, Europe ​and Latin America who are relying heavily on the US to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels and could prompt retaliatory measures.

The US’s powers certainly are not unlimited. Unlike Opec – or its wider producer alliance including Russia known as Opec+ – the US energy industry remains largely bound by market economics. Washington cannot instruct companies to raise or cut output at will, nor can it marshal spare production capacity as Gulf producers traditionally have. In that sense, the US cannot fully replicate Opec’s role as a manager of global supply.

What it can do is respond - ​fast, and at scale. Through a combination of public policy and private market forces, Washington has eased at least some of the pain for ​consumers and revealed a level of market influence unmatched since Opec’s heyday.

The Association of Mobile Telecom Operators of Bangladesh (AMTOB) has proposed abolishing the 20% supplementary duty on mobile talk-time and data, along with other tax cuts, saying the current structure is restricting growth and digital inclusion.

The proposals were placed at a pre-budget meeting with the National Board of Revenue (NBR) in Agargaon, Dhaka, yesterday (27 April).

AMTOB said operators currently pay about 56% of gross revenue in taxes, VAT and other charges, compared to a global average of 22% and 26% in Asia-Pacific countries.

Secretary General Lt Col Mohammad Zulfiqar (Retd) said the tax burden rises further during spectrum auctions, weakening investment capacity and long-term sustainability.

The association also demanded removal of the 1% surcharge on telecom services and Tk300 VAT on SIM and e-SIM replacement, saying it discourages new users, especially low-income groups.

The body further proposed reducing corporate tax rates from 40% (listed) and 45% (non-listed) to regional levels.

In the same meeting, tobacco sector representatives proposed changes to the tax system. British American Tobacco Bangladesh (BATB) proposed replacing the ad-valorem system with a specific tax system.

Arafat Jaigirdar of BATB said, "As the current tax rate is up to 83%, including VAT, supplementary duty, and surcharge, there will be limited scope for increasing government revenue in the future. Therefore, the existing ad valorem system can be replaced with a specific tax system."

He said the change would increase revenue and reduce pressure on companies. Japan Tobacco International Bangladesh and Philip Morris Bangladesh supported the proposal.

However, Abul Khair Tobacco opposed the proposal and suggested increasing prices in the upper three tiers under the existing system, claiming it could generate an additional Tk10,000 crore annually. The tobacco sector currently contributes about Tk50,000 crore to government revenue each year.

National Board of Revenue Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan said cigarette prices and tax rates would be reviewed in line with South Asian standards.

The Bangladesh Steel Manufacturers Association (BSMA) urged the government to reduce income tax, customs duties and VAT on the steel sector in FY2026-27, citing pressure from rising costs, currency depreciation and global instability.

BSMA President Mohammad Jahangir Alam said the steel industry is facing a deep crisis due to depreciation of the taka, dollar shortage, high interest rates, rising utility costs and increased taxes and VAT in FY2025-26. He also cited political instability, the COVID-19 impact, the Russia-Ukraine war and the slowdown in infrastructure projects.

BSMA proposed reducing advance income tax on raw material imports to Tk500 from Tk600, cutting tax deducted at source on rod sales to 1% from 2%, reducing turnover tax to 0.5% from 1%, and allowing adjustment of advance tax.

The association said a new VAT of Tk1,800 per metric tonne has been imposed on imported raw materials despite earlier duty withdrawal. It called for the rationalisation of taxes and duties in the next budget.

NBR Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan said not all demands could be met due to revenue constraints, but reasonable proposals would be considered. He said HS code issues would be reviewed and import values aligned with international prices.

Multiple trade bodies, including steel, re-rolling mills, iron importers, chemical importers, paint, cosmetics, lubricants, fisheries, marine products, auto parts and electronics associations, attended the meeting.

Bangladesh Bank has verbally instructed commercial banks to lower the buying rate of US dollars further, apparently in efforts to stabilise the foreign exchange market, according to official sources.

The instruction set the banks to buy remittances from money exchange houses at a maximum rate of Tk122.85 per US dollar, a senior Bangladesh Bank official confirmed to The Business Standard yesterday.

This marks a slight reduction from the earlier instruction issued on 13 April, when banks were ordered to keep the maximum buying rate at Tk122.90 per dollar, reflecting the central bank's continued efforts to gradually bring down the dollar rate in the local market.

However, bankers and economists argue that such frequent intervention is not standard market practice. While Bangladesh Bank has already introduced a reference exchange rate framework, critics say direct verbal instructions to control rates go beyond conventional policy tools.

Several senior central bank officials, however, defended the move, saying rising fuel prices have increased the risk of inflation, forcing the monetary authority to keep the exchange rate at a level that prevents import costs from rising further.

"If the dollar rate remains high, import costs will increase, which could add pressure on inflation. That is why we are trying to maintain a stable level," one senior official said.

Dr Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, told TBS that discussions are ongoing regarding the disbursement of International Monetary Fund loan instalments, where reform uncertainty has emerged. One of the key IMF conditions was to move toward a more market-based and stable exchange rate mechanism.

"But there are concerns that exchange rate management is not being fully implemented in line with expectations. The IMF does not favour this kind of indirect control," he said.

He further explained that central bank intervention is not unusual, but it should be done through market-based instruments such as dollar auctions.

The economist said, "So I can't understand the reason behind such intervention. Because the directive to reduce the remittance rate means that the central bank thinks the dollar price is high in the market. However, that is due to the imbalance of demand and supply, but nothing like that has happened. But even if it is, it should be allowed to happen."

The international dollar index rose by 0.68% between 28 February and 27 April this year, while Bangladesh's domestic rate increased by only 0.37%. "If anything, this suggests relative stability in supply conditions, supported by strong remittance inflows," he said, adding that import letters of credit have also declined in March while remittance flows remain robust.

Bangladesh Bank officials argue that a lower dollar rate helps importers bring in goods at lower prices, ultimately benefiting businesses and consumers.

While no Bangladesh Bank insider agreed to be named in comments to TBS on the issue, a senior central bank official noted that repeated verbal instructions to control exchange rates may not be well received by the IMF. "This is something we need to be careful about."

There is also pressure from some business groups to appreciate the local currency to reduce import costs, he said.

Despite policy debates, remittance inflows remain strong. Bangladesh Bank data shows that remittances reached $28.92 billion in the current fiscal year up to 26 April.

Market volatility was observed in recent weeks, with some private banks buying dollars at around Tk123 per dollar last week, driven partly by upcoming payment obligations from the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation and Petrobangla.

However, rates softened slightly yesterday, with private banks reporting remittance purchase rates between Tk122.85 and Tk122.95 per dollar.

A senior central bank official said that despite sufficient dollar supply, some banks bought remittances at higher rates, which pushed the dollar price up slightly.

He added that dollar demand also increased after forward bookings rose from mid-March. In response, the central bank instructed banks in the first week of April to stop forward bookings.

Import-export activities between Bangladesh and India through the Benapole land port will remain suspended for three consecutive days due to the assembly elections in West Bengal, India.

However, despite the halt in trade operations, passport holders will be allowed to travel for emergency medical purposes, and voters from West Bengal will be permitted to enter India from Bangladesh to cast their ballots.

Moreover, perishable goods will also remain outside the purview of this restriction.

The information was disclosed in a letter issued on April 24, signed by Shilpa Gaurisaria, district magistrate and district election officer of North 24 Parganas, India, while Md Shamim Hossain, director of Benapole Port, confirmed the matter yesterday.

According to the letter, voting will take place on April 29 in 33 assembly constituencies in North 24 Parganas.

To ensure a smooth election process, the movement of people and vehicles will be restricted from 6pm on April 26 to 6am on April 30 under Section 163 of the Indian Citizen Security Code-2023.

As a result, all international land borders and entry-exit points in the district will remain closed.

During this period, passenger movement through international check posts will be limited, and normal import-export activities are expected to resume from Thursday morning, said Aminul Haque, vice-president of the Benapole Importers and Exporters Association.

Although passenger movement is restricted, Indian voters currently in Bangladesh will be able to return home to vote, said Shakhawat Hossain, officer-in-charge of Benapole Checkpost Immigration Police.

Normal movement of all passport holders will resume after 7am on April 30.

Rahat Hossain, assistant commissioner of Benapole Customs, said that although trade activities will be halted, internal operations at the customs house and port will continue as usual. If any perishable goods arrive from India, arrangements will be made for their swift clearance.

Runner Automobiles PLC saw its share price fall after a key sponsor announced plans to divest his entire stake, raising concerns among investors amid the company's ongoing transition toward electric vehicles (EVs).

Taslim Uddin Ahmed, a sponsor and former director of the company, has declared his intention to sell all 27.09 lakh shares he currently holds.

According to a regulatory filing with the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (27 April), Ahmed plans to complete the sale by 30 April through both public and block markets at the prevailing market price.

Following the announcement, Runner's share price declined by 4.66%, closing at Tk38.90.

The move comes shortly after a similar decision by major foreign investor Brummer Frontier, which on 9 April announced plans to offload 50 lakh shares from its holding of 1.83 crore shares. The simultaneous exits by a sponsor and a foreign shareholder have sparked unease among market participants.

The sell-off is notable given the company's recent strategic development. On 24 March, Runner announced a Master Supply and Manufacturing Agreement (MSMA) with BYD Auto Industry Company to explore local production of electric vehicles. While the partnership marks a significant step forward for Bangladesh's automotive sector, the company noted that the final investment size and financial impact are yet to be determined.

Financially, the company is facing mixed performance. The runner reported a net profit of Tk 2.93 crore for the first half of the current fiscal year (July–December), but posted a loss of Tk 1.41 crore in the October–December quarter.

Despite this volatility, revenue remains strong. The company recorded a 31% year-on-year increase in revenue to Tk592.18 crore in the first half, driven by solid demand in the truck, pickup, and tractor segments.#####

Beacon Pharmaceuticals PLC reported a 335% surge in net profit in the January-March quarter of FY26 compared to the same period a year earlier.

According to its price sensitive statement, the company posted earnings per share (EPS) of Tk1.22 in the third quarter of FY26, up from Tk0.28 in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

For the first three quarters (July-March), its EPS stood at Tk5.95, marking a 59% increase compared to the same period of the previous year.

Bangladesh is facing a deepening structural revenue strain, with the National Board of Revenue (NBR) recording an average annual shortfall of nearly Tk59,000 crore over the past five fiscal years, according to the Policy Research Institute (PRI).

The observation was made by PRI Research Director Bazlul Haque Khondker while presenting findings on the need to rationalise the country's supplementary duty (SD) and value-added tax (VAT) structure at a discussion held at PRI's office in Dhaka on Saturday.

He said Bangladesh's growing dependence on high and complex indirect taxation is increasingly unsustainable for a transitioning economy.

Khondker noted that the country already imposes some of the highest indirect tax rates in the region, particularly on beverages, where the rate stands at 43.75%, compared to 40% in India and 30% in the Maldives.

He pointed to significant distortions within the tax structure, citing the wide gap between 250% tax on alcoholic beer and 55% on energy drinks. According to him, such disparities distort consumer behaviour, pushing demand toward lower-taxed products and ultimately weakening overall revenue efficiency.

The PRI also cautioned that frequent and unpredictable changes in tax policy are contributing to investor uncertainty. It said multinational companies are increasingly factoring Bangladesh's SD and VAT regime into their decisions on whether to remain in or exit the market.

To achieve the government's target of raising foreign direct investment (FDI) to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, the think tank stressed the need for what it described as "investor-grade tax certainty."

Against the backdrop of widening revenue gaps and a long-term goal of achieving a 15% tax-to-GDP ratio by 2035, PRI proposed a set of structural reforms.

These include, first, fixing the order of tax imposition by separating supplementary duty from the VAT base and applying it at a single point to prevent cascading effects.

Second, it recommended introducing specific health-based taxes, shifting away from price-based taxation toward levies determined by sugar or alcohol content, a move it said could significantly improve revenue from food and beverage products.

Third, PRI called for stronger data systems to support tax administration, including detailed, category-wise reporting of SD and VAT to enhance monitoring, enforcement, and policy design.

Most listed manufacturers faced pressure last year from high borrowing costs and weak demand, with many sectors reporting falling profits or losses.

Despite that, a small number of large companies maintained strong earnings.

Data compiled by Lion City Advisory show only four listed firms posted profits above Tk1,000 crore in 2025.

The four that cross Tk1,000cr profit mark

According to the analysis, multinational telecom operator Grameenphone recorded the highest profit among listed companies at Tk2,908 crore in 2025.

Square Pharmaceuticals ranked second with Tk2,594 crore in profit.

Power producer United Power Generation posted Tk1,097 crore in profit, while electronics and appliance maker Walton earned Tk1,095 crore.

Robi came close to the threshold, reporting a profit of Tk937 crore.

On the loss side, Bashundhara Paper Mills topped the list with a loss of Tk477 crore. Titas Gas followed with Tk450 crore, while Energypac posted a loss of Tk213 crore.

In 2024, four firms also crossed the Tk1,000 crore profit mark, again led by Grameenphone at Tk3,630 crore, followed by Square, Walton and United Power Generation.

Titas Gas was the biggest loss-maker in 2024 with Tk1,502 crore in losses. Power Grid and Desco ranked next with losses of Tk449 crore and Tk316 crore, respectively.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) plans to introduce a QR code system on packaged products sold in the market to curb value-added tax (VAT) evasion and improve tax compliance.

NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan announced the plan during a pre-budget meeting at the organisation's headquarters in Agargaon today (26 April).

"At the initial stage, we plan to start with tobacco products. Later, it will be implemented for all packaged goods such as soap, shampoo, bottled water, and sugary items," he said.

He said the new system was intended to strengthen monitoring and reduce tax evasion in the retail market.

The NBR chairman also said individuals who provide information on tax evasion or misconduct would be rewarded.

"Those found evading taxes will face fines," he said.

Representatives of several business bodies, including BGMEA and BTMA, attended the meeting.