New US tariffs could slash Canada's fourth quarter growth to below 1%, reflecting a new wave of uncertainty that threatens to hit investment ​and hiring, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said today (21 September).

Macklem said that as ‌the bank pondered what to do with rates, it had to take into consideration the fact that while slower growth could drag inflation downwards, the Middle East conflict could push it up as oil prices soar.

Canada's annual inflation ​rate is 3%, well above the bank's 2% target, and it could edge up ​if oil prices remain near $100 a barrel, he said.

Canada's economy rebounded in the ⁠second quarter and posted annualized growth of 3.3%, as businesses and households started to adjust and ​plan investments and spending after almost 18 months of US tariffs.

But as a prospective trade deal ​collapsed between the two long term allies, the rift between them has widened with new tariffs from the US.

"The latest escalation could once again cause businesses to delay investment and hiring decision," Macklem said.

"If these new tariffs remain ​in place, growth could be roughly halved in the fourth quarter, to below 1%."

In July, before ​the tariffs were unveiled, the BoC had forecast a third quarter growth of 1.5% and economists say recent indicators ‌show ⁠it will most likely be around that range.

The Middle East conflict has not only impacted crude oil prices but also damaged gasoline and diesel capacity, piling up more pressure on the cost of fuel.

Macklem said that with no easing of the US-Iran conflict, the risk that inflation broadens and becomes ​more persistent has increased, ​although there is no ⁠evidence so far that the higher fuel costs are spreading to other goods or services.

"We don't want to raise our policy rate and restrain ​growth if inflationary pressures are contained. But nor do we want to ​be too slow ⁠to respond if inflationary pressures are being more persisent," he said.

Macklem said that since the start of the trade war between the US and Canada, the BoC was seeing evidence that businesses were reducing ⁠their exposure ​to tariffs by changing supply chains and changing sourcing strategies.

They ​are also adopting AI technology but its impact on productivity will take time to reflect.

That said, slower population growth and ​an aging population are also hitting labor supply and consumer demand, he added.

Saudi Arabia has informed at least two European oil refining customers that they will not receive their usual crude oil allocations in October, as the escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupts global energy markets, reports Middle East Eye.

European refineries typically purchase Saudi crude under term contracts that guarantee regular monthly supplies. However, shipments can be cancelled under extraordinary circumstances under force majeure provisions, according to the report.

The development follows Qatar's extension earlier this month of force majeure on liquefied natural gas shipments until early November amid a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia had appeared relatively insulated from disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz because its East-West Pipeline connects the Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing the kingdom to bypass the strategic waterway.

The pipeline had enabled Saudi Arabia to export around two-thirds of its pre-war oil volumes, or about 4 million barrels per day, according to MEE.

However, a drone attack last week disabled the pipeline. Saudi authorities said the attack originated from Iraq, where militias aligned with Iran are active.

The Houthis have also claimed attacks targeting the port of Yanbu and other facilities operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco.

Saudi Arabia has since begun rerouting oil shipments through the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline after the Houthis declared an embargo on Saudi shipping, the report said.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose following the Houthi offensive in Yemen, which has placed the group in control of the country's Red Sea coastline.

The Houthis have also targeted Saudi Arabia with drones and missiles as the kingdom carries out strikes against Houthi positions in Yemen.

Brent was trading at around $103 a barrel on Friday. However, energy analysts told MEE that the benchmark price does not fully reflect the physical cost of securing crude supplies, while prices for refined products such as diesel and jet fuel are even higher.

In the United States, which has been relatively insulated from the conflict because of its domestic energy production, diesel prices rose 7.7% over the past week, according to the report.

Saudi Arabia led a coalition of Arab states that intervened in Yemen after the Houthis seized large parts of northwestern Yemen about a decade ago.

A ceasefire was reached in 2022 between the Houthis and the internationally recognised Yemeni government, backed by Saudi Arabia, after which Riyadh sought to reduce its involvement in the conflict.

However, Saudi Arabia has maintained an air and sea blockade of Houthi-controlled ports and airports.

The Houthis have said lifting the blockade is a condition for ending their embargo on Saudi Arabia.

US factory production unexpectedly fell in August and higher oil prices and rising interest rates could offset some of the support from an artificial intelligence buildout, likely keeping activity moderate for the rest of the year.

The decline in output, reported by the Federal Reserve on Friday, followed seven straight months of increases.

The US central bank on Wednesday raised interest rates for the first time in three years and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in the months ahead.

Oil prices are hovering above $100 a barrel with no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

“Looking ahead, we think manufacturing output will rise a little further over coming months, but will fail to match the pace set in the first half of this year,” said Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“Some manufacturers likely will find that demand softens as they pass on higher energy prices to consumers.”

Manufacturing output dropped 0.3 percent last month following an unrevised 0.2 percent rise in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production would increase 0.3 percent.

Output advanced 0.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in August, a modest increase that, according to some economists, indicated the Trump administration’s aggressive trade policy had not had the desired effect of rejuvenating the nation’s industrial base.

Production in the sector, which accounts for about 9.4 percent of the economy, received a boost in prior months as businesses rushed orders to avoid shortages and higher prices from the escalation of the war in the Middle East.

The decline in August was led by a 0.5 percent drop in the production of long-lasting manufactured goods. Motor vehicles and parts production decreased 1.2 percent, notching a second straight monthly decline.

Output of computers and peripheral equipment fell 1.4 percent, but was up 5.5 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Production of communications equipment increased 0.8 percent.

Though the output of semiconductors and related electronic components dipped 0.1 percent, this category was up 12.4 percent from a year ago.

The AI spending spree has cushioned the blow from import tariffs on manufacturing.

Some economists are still betting on a strong manufacturing performance this year, despite a sharp rise in longer-dated US Treasury yields in recent weeks and the Fed’s decision to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75 percent-4.00 percent range.

POSSIBLE TAILWIND FROM HIGHER DEFENSE SPENDING

“We still look for manufacturing activity to pick up through next year, and the AI infrastructure buildout is a key reason for our sanguine outlook,” said Bernard Yaros, lead US economist at Oxford Economics.

“The demand case for AI still seems strong enough to shrug off higher-for-longer rates and increased geopolitical risk. Greater defense spending will also act as another tailwind.”

Restocking by businesses that have run down inventories for five straight quarters to meet robust demand could also provide a lift to manufacturing, though some economists argued that trend could be overshadowed by the drag from rising costs.

Production of nondurable goods was unchanged after falling 0.4 percent in July.

Rises in output at textile mills as well as for apparel and leather products were offset by declines in the production of plastics and rubber goods, and petroleum and coal.

“Factory output shows the first signs of a slowdown which could worsen if the geopolitical headwinds intensify and diesel fuel prices do not come back down,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

“Soaring energy prices are costly for industry and higher diesel prices may start to chip away at the manufacturing renaissance picture painted by White House economic officials.”

Mining production edged up 0.1 percent last month, matching the rise in July.

Oil and gas well drilling increased 0.9 percent after accelerating by 5.2 percent in July.

Utilities production shot up 1.8 percent after climbing 0.5 percent in July.

Overall industrial production was unchanged last month after gaining 0.2 percent in July.

Industrial output advanced 1.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in August.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector, a measure of how fully firms are using their resources, was unchanged at 76.3 percent in August.

It is 3.1 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average.

The operating rate for the manufacturing sector fell 0.3 percentage points to 75.7 percent.

It is 2.5 percentage points below its long-run average.

“There is no evidence here that tariffs or anything are generating an influx of new jobs in manufacturing and industry,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

A visiting delegation from China's Yunnan Province met with Bangladeshi officials and business leaders in Dhaka on Sunday to explore avenues for expanding bilateral trade, investment, and broader economic cooperation between Bangladesh and Yunnan.

Mohammad Hasan Arif, Vice Chairman and Chief Executive (Additional Secretary) of the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), presided over the meeting.

The discussions focused on strengthening existing trade ties, creating new market opportunities, establishing business connections, and expanding mutual trade prospects between Bangladesh and Yunnan Province, reports UNB.

Led by the Department of Commerce of Yunnan Province, the Chinese delegation comprised government officials, entrepreneurs, and business leaders representing various sectors.

The meeting emphasized facilitating direct communication and business partnerships between Yunnan-based enterprises and Bangladeshi government agencies, trade associations, and private sector stakeholders.

Members of the Yunnan delegation expressed keen interest in conducting market research, appointing local agents and distributors, exploring import-export opportunities in agricultural and agro-based products, utilizing logistics services, and gaining insights into Bangladesh’s commercial infrastructure, including Chittagong Port.

The Yunnan Department of Commerce proposed several initiatives, including assessing market demand in Bangladesh for construction materials, engineering products, and agricultural machinery. Their proposals also highlighted visiting local trade exhibitions and commercial markets, building distribution and logistics networks, and expanding exports of agricultural and light industrial goods.

Additionally, the meeting explored creating stronger trade linkages between Yunnan’s product offerings and Bangladeshi textiles and specialized agricultural products.

EPB Vice Chairman Mohammad Hasan Arif underscored the need to complement government-level cooperation with robust Business-to-Business (B2B) interactions, market integration, and strategic commercial partnerships to make economic ties between Bangladesh and Yunnan more dynamic and fruitful.

Both sides agreed to maintain continuous communication across sectors of mutual interest to establish effective commercial links between the business communities of Bangladesh and Yunnan Province.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has made online VAT return filing mandatory for 11 goods and services to improve compliance, boost revenue collection and bring VAT documentation under a digital system.

Eight are from the manufacturing sector -- cigarettes, mobile phones, medicines, beverages, cement, MS products, tiles, and paints and varnishes. Three are from the services sector -- insurance, banking and non-banking financial services, and mobile financial services.

A general order to this effect was issued by the VAT department of the NBR yesterday.

Nearly 40 percent of the revenue board’s total VAT collection comes from these sectors, according to the NBR.

The measure is aimed at bringing the submission of relevant VAT documents under a digital system.

Under the order, if a registered person is directly involved in supplying any of the listed goods or services to another person, the requirement will also apply to that person’s activities.

Any previous order issued by the NBR relating to the mandatory online submission of relevant documents will be considered cancelled once the new order comes into effect.

However, the NBR will retain the authority to amend the list of goods and services covered by the order whenever necessary. The order took effect immediately.

The move comes as the tax authority expands digital processes for VAT administration amid lower VAT collection, seeking to bring more business transactions and compliance activities under online systems.

Md Azizur Rahman, member (VAT Policy) of the NBR, said the move to bring VAT returns online was aimed at gradually incorporating all sectors into the e-VAT system.

“We want to bring all sectors under digital coverage. We are doing it gradually,” he said, adding that filing is not yet mandatory for those outside the listed sectors, as there is no official gazette and commissioners are simply taking the initiative.

The NBR is initially bringing around 11 sectors under mandatory online filing, citing a provision under Section 64 of this year’s budget.

“Among them are production sectors -- many already submit online, but we will bring the entire sector fully online. We may bring another 10 sectors next month, and gradually cover as many as possible by June,” he said.

“At present, we receive around 60 percent of returns online on average, but the remaining 40 percent isn’t coming in. For the sectors we’re bringing in now, submission will have to be 100 percent online. The VAT department will ensure that through whatever method is necessary.”

Faysal Ahmed, a chartered accountant, said the move may boost online VAT return filing and strengthen the NBR’s capacity for VAT compliance and data verification.

“As a result, businesses will need to ensure proper reconciliation and data accuracy among their sales, purchases, input-output VAT and VAT return information. This will play a positive role in the government’s VAT collection,” he said.

Envoy Textile and Apex Footwear have scheduled board meetings to consider their audited financial statements for FY26, including potential dividend declarations for shareholders.

According to Dhaka Stock Exchange disclosures, Envoy Textile's board will meet on 27 September at 3pm, while Apex Footwear's meeting is scheduled for 26 September at 5:20pm.

The boards will consider the audited financial statements for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2026, along with other matters.

Envoy Textile's earnings weakened in the third quarter of FY26, with earnings per share (EPS) falling to Tk1.54 in January-March from Tk2.44 a year earlier. For the nine months through March, EPS declined to Tk5.89 from Tk6.03.

However, its net operating cash flow per share (NOCFPS) rose sharply to Tk16.85 during July 2025-March 2026 from Tk3.27 a year earlier. Net asset value (NAV) per share stood at Tk61.21 at the end of March, up from Tk58.32 at the end of June 2025.

Apex Footwear, meanwhile, reported higher earnings, with quarterly EPS rising to Tk0.54 from Tk0.49 and nine-month EPS increasing to Tk4.54 from Tk3.56.

The company attributed the improvement mainly to higher net sales revenue and profit before tax.

Its NOCFPS, however, fell to Tk122.92 during the nine months from Tk140.95 a year earlier, mainly due to higher payments to suppliers, employees and others amid increased material procurement costs, direct labour expenses, utilities and income tax payments.

Apex Footwear's NAV per share rose to Tk351.89 at the end of March from Tk349.35 at the end of June 2025, mainly reflecting changes in assets and liabilities.

Foreign investors have continued to offload their holdings in Marico Bangladesh Limited, an India-based multinational personal care manufacturer, selling around 3.15 lakh shares worth approximately Tk85 crore between March and August this year.

According to Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) data, foreign investors' stake in the company fell from 1.91% in March to 0.91% in August, a decline of 1% point in the company's total outstanding shares.

The monthly figures show a steady sell-off, with foreign holdings declining to 1.85% in April, 1.80% in May, 1.53% in June and 0.99% in July before reaching 0.91% in August.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund and Marico's primary foreign shareholder, also reduced its stake to 0.52% in the first half of 2026, from 0.67% in 2025.

Market insiders said Marico, once considered a preferred stock among listed multinational companies, has seen its appeal among foreign investors weaken, mainly due to macroeconomic headwinds rather than any significant deterioration in the company's underlying performance.

Despite the recent sell-off, Marico still has the third-highest foreign ownership among listed multinational companies, behind British American Tobacco Bangladesh and Bata Shoe Company (Bangladesh).

As of August, sponsors and directors held 90% of Marico's shares, while institutional investors held 6.72%, the public 2.37% and foreign shareholders 0.91%.

The foreign exit coincides with a recent quarterly earnings dip. Marico Bangladesh, producer of the popular Parachute brand, reported a 12.38% year-on-year drop in net profit to Tk170.47 crore for the April–June quarter of 2026, its first quarterly profit decline in four years. Revenue, however, grew 4% to Tk531.86 crore during the period.

Management attributed the profit contraction to rising raw material prices and lower finance income.

Earnings per share (EPS) fell to Tk54.12 from Tk61.77, while net operating cash flow per share dropped to Tk20.28 from Tk66.73 due to higher supplier payments.

Meanwhile, net asset value per share rose to Tk146.14 as of 30 June 2026, up from Tk92.02 in March.

Despite the profit decline, the board declared a massive 500% interim cash dividend (Tk50 per share), continuing its trend of high dividend payouts to repatriate profits to its Indian parent company, Marico Limited.

Expatriate Bangladeshis sent over US$1.87 billion in remittances during the first 19 days of September 2026, marking a slight monthly increase compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, according to the latest Bangladesh Bank (BB) data.

During the corresponding period from September 1 to September 19 in 2025, the country received $1.86 billion in remittances.

The latest figures reflect a 0.4 per cent growth for the month up to September 19 in the current fiscal year (FY 2026–27), reports UNB.

Between September 17 and September 19 alone, remittance inflows stood at $130 million.

The overall fiscal year-to-date performance shows stronger upward momentum.

From July 1 to September 19 of the current fiscal year (FY 2026–27), total remittance inflows reached $7.70 billion.

This represents a 13.8 per cent yearly growth compared to the $6.76 billion received during the same period in FY 2025–26 (July 1 to September 19, 2025).

OpenAI expects to burn through $278 billion in cash between 2026 and 2030 as it ramps up spending on computing power and infrastructure, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing a company presentation seen by the newspaper.

The projection highlights OpenAI’s funding needs as it seeks fresh investment, with the FT reporting earlier this week that the ChatGPT maker had held talks with investors that could value it at about $1.2 trillion ahead of a potential listing.

OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO in June, but CEO Sam Altman said on Saturday the company would not go public in 2026 because of concerns about AI safety.

OpenAI forecasts negative free cash flow of $278 billion over the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 while investing aggressively to secure computing capacity needed to train and run its AI models, FT said.

The AI firm expects revenue to increase tenfold over the same period, rising from $36 billion this year to $350 billion in 2030, the FT said, adding that OpenAI anticipates generating a cumulative $840 billion in revenue through the end of the decade.

OpenAI forecasts spending about $856 billion on computing power and infrastructure by the end of 2030, its largest expense category, the report said. The FT said the company raised $122 billion in March at an $852 billion valuation but is on track to exhaust that cash by 2028.

OpenAI could not immediately be reached for comment outside regular business hours.

The Indian deputy high commissioner has called for stronger trade and investment ties between Bangladesh and India, urging both countries to remove tariff and non-tariff barriers and build closer links between businesses.

Pawan Badhe made the call during a courtesy meeting with Md Fazlul Hoque, administrator of the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), at the federation’s Gulshan office in Dhaka yesterday.

Pawan proposed forming a business-to-business task force to strengthen cooperation between the private sectors of the two countries.

He said his office was in regular contact with the governments of Bangladesh and India to speed up the formation of the task force. He also sought support from Bangladesh’s private sector, led by the FBCCI.

Pawan also said visa procedures for Bangladeshi travellers to India had been eased and that the Indian high commission was issuing numerous visas every day.

The FBCCI administrator said a joint task force could help boost bilateral trade and deepen cooperation between the two countries.

He urged businesses and entrepreneurs from Bangladesh and India to work together to increase investment and trade in emerging and promising sectors.

The meeting comes as businesses in both countries seek to expand commercial ties and address barriers to cross-border trade.

Eastern Bank emerged as the top turnover leader on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) today (20 September), marking a notable surge in trading activity for the bank's shares.

According to DSE data, EBL shares worth Tk36.94 crore changed hands during the session, with 1.61 crore shares traded through 1,773 transactions.

The lender's sudden rise to the top of the turnover board is notable, as the stock has rarely led the DSE's daily turnover chart in recent times, according to market insiders.

Despite the heavy trading activity, EBL shares closed unchanged at Tk22.90, the same as the previous session.

The stock opened at Tk23 against an adjusted opening price of Tk22.90 and traded between a high of Tk23.10 and a low of Tk22.70 during the session.

At the latest closing price, EBL's total market capitalisation stands at Tk3,764 crore, with a free float market capitalisation of Tk2,615 crore.

Earlier, Eastern Bank posted a 25% year-on-year growth in consolidated net profit for the first half of 2026, reaching Tk439 crore for the January–June period. Consolidated earnings per share rose to Tk2.67 from a restated Tk2.14 in H1 2025.

The bank attributed its robust earnings growth to higher returns from government securities amid elevated treasury yields, alongside steady growth in non-funded income and improved operational efficiency.

On the turnover chart, Sharp Industries secured the second position with trades amounting to Tk25.84 crore, while IPDC Finance Limited came in third with shares worth Tk23.07 crore traded.

Other top-traded stocks of the day included Paramount Textile, Bangladesh National Insurance, Saiham Textile, Asiatic Laboratories, Lovello, Envoy Textile, and Reliance Insurance.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange's benchmark index rose 60 points today (20 September), extending its winning streak to four sessions and taking its cumulative gain to 213 points, as broad-based buying and higher turnover signalled a revival in investor participation after the market's recent sharp correction.

The DSEX closed at 5,592 today, up nearly 4% from 5,379 on 14 September. The DSE30, the blue-chip index, gained 20 points to 2,121, while the DSES, the Shariah-based index, rose 12 points to 1,119.

Turnover increased 14% from the previous session to Tk747 crore, while 287 of the 388 traded issues advanced. Only 62 declined and 39 remained unchanged, indicating that the buying was spread across a large number of securities rather than being concentrated in a few stocks.

Market participants said the recent recovery was mainly to bargain hunting following the sharp correction, expectations of improved gas supplies to industries, stronger buying in banks and other active sectors, and improved investor sentiment following Moody's decision to revise Bangladesh's sovereign outlook.

The market began recovering after the DSEX fell to 5,379 on 14 September following several sessions of decline. Since then, investors have increasingly returned to beaten-down stocks, taking advantage of lower prices.

EBL Securities, in its daily market commentary, said bargain hunters were accumulating beaten-down stocks as strong investor participation and broad-based buying supported the recovery. The brokerage, however, noted that concerns over the market's near-term trajectory and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region remained.

Expectations of improved gas supplies have also helped ease some concerns over the earnings outlook of industrial and manufacturing companies. Gas shortages have disrupted production and raised concerns about corporate sales and profitability. Recent assurances of improving supplies have therefore provided some relief to investors.

Meanwhile, Moody's revised Bangladesh's sovereign outlook from "negative" to "stable" while maintaining its long-term issuer rating at B2. Market analysts have cited the change as another factor that has supported investor sentiment in recent sessions.

Buying interest was particularly visible in the Textile, General Insurance and Bank sectors. Textile accounted for the largest share of turnover today at 24%, followed by General Insurance at 13.2% and Bank at 12%.

All sectors posted positive returns during the session. Mutual Fund gained the most, rising 2.8%, while Cement and Financial Institution each advanced 2.6%.

The recent decline in Treasury bill yields may have also encouraged some investors to reconsider their allocation to equities. According to Bangladesh Bank data, the compounded rate on 91-day Treasury bills fell from 9.46% on 8 September to 9.32% on 16 September.

However, market participants do not see the decline in yields as a standalone explanation for the recent rally.

The breadth of the market has also improved significantly. On 15 September, 336 issues advanced, followed by 179 on 16 September and 259 on 17 September. The pattern suggests that the recent recovery has involved a wider range of stocks across different sectors.

Eastern Bank, Sharp Industries and IPDC Finance were the most actively traded stocks on Sunday.

Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag Industries topped the gainers' list, rising 9.88%, followed by ICB AMCL Sonali Bank First Mutual Fund, up 9.86%, and Prime Finance First Mutual Fund, which gained 9.75%.

Paramount Textile led the decliners, falling 4.31%. Rahima Food Corporation and Desh Garments each declined 2.88%.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also closed higher. The CASPI gained 120 points to 14,856, while the CSCX advanced 85 points to 9,107. Turnover on the CSE stood at Tk10.10 crore.

The recent rally, however, will need to sustain higher turnover and broad-based participation to demonstrate whether the market's recovery can continue. Investors will also be watching corporate earnings, gas supply conditions and the persistence of investor confidence in the coming sessions.

EBL Securities said strong investor participation and broad-based accumulation had brought the benchmark index close to the 5,600 mark following its recent declines, although geopolitical and other market risks remained.

The government has increased the retail prices of diesel, octane, petrol, and kerosene by Tk20 per litre, with the revised rates set to take effect from Monday (21 September).

With the new price adjustment, this is the second time the BNP government has hiked fuel prices after assuming power in February this year. The last price hike was back in April.

Under the revised rates, the price of diesel has been raised to Tk135 per litre from Tk115, marking an increase of Tk20, or 17.4%.

The price of octane has been increased to Tk165 from Tk145, also a Tk20 hike, equivalent to 13.8%.

The price of petrol has been raised to Tk160 per litre from Tk140, an increase of Tk20, or 14.3%.

Meanwhile, from tomorrow, kerosene will cost Tk155 per litre, up from Tk135, marking a Tk20, or 14.8%, increase.

The Energy and Mineral Resources Division issued a gazette notification on Saturday night (20 September), revising the consumer-level selling prices of the four petroleum products.

Why the hikes

Laying out the perspective and rationale of the latest fuel price hike, the energy division said, "The ongoing war in the Middle East has caused a significant increase in the international prices of all types of petroleum products and freight charges since March 2026, and the upward trend continues."

Although international fuel prices have more than doubled, the government refrained from increasing domestic fuel prices in the public interest since April. As a result, the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) incurred losses of approximately Tk22,875.66 crore between March and August this year.

On 18 April, the government had increased the price of diesel by Tk15 per litre to Tk115. Despite the abnormal rise in international prices, domestic fuel prices remained unchanged for the following five months. Fuel prices in neighbouring and other Asian countries are currently considerably higher than in Bangladesh, said the energy division.

Giving a comparative price-sensitive analysis with India and other Asian countries, it said diesel is priced at Tk134.76 per litre in Kolkata, India; Tk164.83 in Myanmar; Tk161.24 in Nepal; Tk179.42 in Sri Lanka; Tk151.22 in Thailand; Tk137 in Vietnam; Tk140.71 in the Maldives; Tk168.53 in the Philippines; Tk185.48 in Pakistan; and Tk144.79 in the United Arab Emirates.

"The relatively low domestic fuel prices have created a risk of fuel being smuggled to neighbouring countries. The smuggling of petroleum products purchased with foreign currency earned through the hard work of Bangladeshi expatriates is not acceptable," said the division.

The government is also providing substantial subsidies to keep electricity and gas supplies uninterrupted amid the impact of the war on the LNG market.

In this context, the energy division said there is no alternative to increasing fuel prices to sustain the government's social safety net programmes and prevent fuel smuggling.

At current international market prices, BPC is incurring a loss of approximately Tk89 per litre on diesel. This translates into a daily loss of around Tk109 crore. At this rate, the annual loss on diesel alone would reach approximately Tk40,000 crore.

According to the energy division, increasing domestic fuel prices by Tk20 per litre, in line with prices in neighbouring countries, would reduce BPC's annual losses by around Tk10,000 crore.

Against this backdrop, the division said it has revised the prices of petroleum products to reduce BPC's losses, save foreign currency, and mitigate the risk of fuel smuggling to neighbouring countries amid the rise in international fuel prices caused by the ongoing war in the Middle East.

Fears of wider economic pressure

Talking to The Business Standard tonight, Dr Fahmida Khatun, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said that the latest price increase seems to be another adjustment to a continuing external energy-price shock.

"Nevertheless, increasing all major petroleum prices by the same absolute amount at once is a substantial policy intervention, especially when inflation and household financial pressure are already high," she said in her immediate reaction.

"The increase will have wide-ranging consequences. Individuals will face higher expenses for transportation. Even households that do not purchase fuel directly will be affected as transportation costs raise the prices of food and other essentials.

"Poor and lower-middle-income families will suffer disproportionately because most of their income is spent on daily necessities," she added.

Fahmida continued, "Diesel-dependent agriculture will face higher irrigation, mechanisation and transportation costs. This could potentially raise food prices, but reduce farmers' returns."

Around 70% of the country's irrigation pumps are operated using diesel. A research paper published by researchers from Bangladesh Agricultural University (BAU) and the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) found that irrigation is one of the major components of the total input or production costs for Boro rice, accounting for 20–25% of the total expenditure.

Fahmida also said, "Industries will incur higher logistics and generator costs, which will weaken profitability and export competitiveness. Small businesses will be especially vulnerable.

"At the macroeconomic level, the increase may intensify inflation, reduce household consumption and weaken growth."

Since the government had no other option but to increase energy prices, it should monitor how this increased price is imposed on the common people by market players, the economist stressed.

"The government should publish the price calculation transparently, prevent excessive fare increases and market manipulation. The government should also provide targeted support to low-income households, small farmers and public transport users," she added.

Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries, told TBS, "The country is experiencing high inflation that is not coming under control. Industries are not getting adequate gas and electricity, resulting in very low private-sector credit growth.

"At such a time, increasing fuel prices by more than 15% without consulting anyone will create additional pressure across all sectors."

He said the decision will increase industrial production costs, transportation costs, and inflation. "The prices of goods will become uncontrollable. People will lose their jobs, while many businesses will have to scale back their operations.

"Non-performing loans in banks will increase. The government will not be able to create the employment it has been promising," he opined.

He feared that such decisions by the government will erode public confidence in the BNP administration. "Overall, it will create a socioeconomic crisis."

Talking to TBS, former Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry (DCCI) president Shams Mahmud said, "As it is, all forms of business activities, including manufacturing, logistics, agro, service sector, and FMCG [fast-moving consumer goods], are going through stress in these turbulent times. International energy markets have recently been affected by the strikes in Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels. Just today, Saudi Arabia said next month's shipment of oil to Europe will be withheld.

"So we can anticipate future price increases. The government has taken the right decision as a policy to create a buffer for any price shock, especially in regards to sourcing and also subsidy."

"But unfortunately, this will add a burden to the business ecosystem of Bangladesh, with inflationary pressure on the internal economy reducing disposable income. For export-oriented industries, which are already in a vulnerable state with decreasing competitiveness, it will add to the already increasing cost of doing business," said the businessman.

Also, the International Monetary Fund has been pressuring the government for a reduction of subsidy, and it may also have had an influence on the decision, as both parties will sit in Bangkok next month to work out the next loan from the global lender, he added.

About 1.81 crore people in Bangladesh are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity between September and December 2026, according to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released this month.

The UN agency categorised the level of food insecurity in Bangladesh as IPC Phase 3 (crisis) and above -- under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a standardised global scale used to measure the severity of food crises.

IPC Phase 3 is the threshold at which populations experience critical levels of acute food insecurity and malnutrition, requiring urgent intervention.

The FAO said the projected number of people facing acute food insecurity is 18 percent higher than the estimated 1.53 crore people during May-August this year.

The projection includes approximately 7.87 lakh people expected to experience IPC Phase 4, or emergency-level acute food insecurity, under the IPC framework.

“The deterioration in food security conditions is mainly due to constrained household purchasing power amid persistently high inflation, driven by elevated fuel and energy costs associated with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while floods further affected livelihoods in some areas,” the FAO said in its Bangladesh country brief.

Bangladesh has been facing persistent inflation since fiscal year 2022-23. The 12-month average inflation rate rose to 10.13 percent in June 2025, the highest since FY12. In August 2026, consumer price inflation moderated to 8.26 percent, while the 12-month average inflation rate stood at 8.66 percent, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

According to the IPC, food security conditions are projected to worsen in Satkhira, Bagerhat, Barishal, Barguna, Bhola, Jhalokathi, Noakhali, Khagrachhari, Rangamati, Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar.

Gaibandha, Kurigram, Jamalpur, Sirajganj, Netrokona and Sunamganj are also identified as districts where people face acute food insecurity.

The FAO report said food security conditions remain of particular concern for approximately 12 lakh forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals residing in Cox’s Bazar and Bhasan Char.

Thirty-five percent of this refugee population is projected to face acute food insecurity between September and December, including 10 percent facing emergency-level acute food insecurity amid anticipated funding shortfalls for food assistance and limited livelihood opportunities.

Despite the increased risk of food insecurity, the UN agency forecast Bangladesh’s aggregate paddy output for 2026 at 6.19 crore tonnes, roughly 5 percent above the four-year average of 5.95 crore tonnes.

The FAO said the 2026 Boro paddy crop, which accounts for about 55 percent of annual output, yielded an estimated 3.19 crore tonnes, close to the previous year’s record level, supported by improved seed varieties.

The Aus harvest concluded in July at 41 lakh tonnes despite crop losses caused by flooding from May to July in Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Moulvibazar and Habiganj. The vegetative Aman crop is preliminarily forecast at 2.59 crore tonnes, it said.

As domestic production is forecast to rise, the FAO expects Bangladesh’s rice imports to decline sharply. Rice imports for calendar year 2026 are forecast to fall to 8 lakh tonnes from 19 lakh tonnes in 2025, it said.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is set to procure a three-year subscription to S&P Global Platts, a global provider of commodity price assessments and market data, to help customs officials verify the declared prices of imported goods.

The Ministry of Finance has recently approved the procurement at a cost of around Tk 8 crore, according to revenue officials familiar with the matter.

The subscription is being procured through the Direct Purchase Method (DPM) and is likely to be purchased within this week, several members of the purchase committee told The Daily Star.

The database will provide international market prices for thousands of commodities, allowing the NBR to compare importers’ declared values with prevailing prices when determining customs values.

Officials said the board had contacted several other international platforms, including the London Metal Exchange (LME), Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and ICIS, before settling on Platts.

The other platforms do not provide data covering all types of products, while Platts offers price assessments across a broader range of commodities, they said.

“We negotiated with Platts several times before finalising the price,” a member of the purchase committee said on condition of anonymity.

The subscription will provide access to data on various products, while the NBR will receive at least 20-30 user IDs, allowing officials of customs houses across the country to access the platform.

The move follows a meeting on customs valuation held at Chattogram port on August 11 in the presence of Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury.

At the meeting, Chattogram Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI) President Mohammed Amirul Haque said customs officials sometimes assess imported goods at values higher than their actual purchase or invoice prices.

He cited plastic chips as an example, saying importers purchased the product at $8,000-$9,000 per tonne, while customs assessed its value at $12,000 per tonne for calculating duties and taxes.

Other businesses at the meeting also complained that higher customs valuations than their actual purchase prices were increasing import costs and putting additional pressure on consumers.

Following the meeting, the finance minister instructed the NBR chairman and the commissioner of Chattogram Customs House to take steps on the issue by September.

Md Mahbubur Rahman, commissioner of Chattogram Customs House, told The Daily Star that customs officials already use information from international price platforms and websites in some cases to assess imported goods.

“But as we do not have subscriptions, we do not have full access to such information and cannot properly verify the data provided by importers,” he said.

“Having access to international price databases will make it easier to verify the declared values submitted by importers and assess customs value based on prevailing market prices,” Mahbubur said.

Ahmedur Reza Chowdhury, deputy commissioner of Chattogram Customs House and a member of the purchase committee, said the database also provides country- and region-specific market data.

“If data for a particular country is not available, we can consider data from a neighbouring or comparable market. Under the customs valuation rules, such information can be useful in determining the value of identical or similar goods from the same or comparable regions,” he said.

Platts publishes daily commodity price assessments and benchmarks covering markets such as crude oil, refined fuels, gas, LNG, chemicals, petrochemicals, fertilisers, agriculture, metals and shipping. S&P Global says its Platts business publishes more than 15,000 commodity prices daily across these markets.

The proposed subscription comes amid longstanding complaints from importers that customs authorities sometimes determine the assessable value of goods above their actual transaction or invoice prices, said CCCI President Haque.

Liquidity crunch looks to be a thing of the past now as affluent commercial banks in particular fret over deposit buildup amid squeezing investment avenues for economic slowdown,

An analysis of the paradoxical situation shows various regulatory moves and deposit-mobilising drives by the country's banks helped in gradually restoring people's once-shaken trust in the banking sector. As such, the deposit growth keeps rising, which basically helps boost their stock of excess liquidity.

But such liquidity buildup fails to lighten up mood of the bankers because the demand for private-sector credits has not picked up despite various regulatory moves. On the other hand, yields on government securities are on a downturn feeding on an abundance of liquidity in the banking system.

As such, depositors begin to bear its domino effect as banks having surplus liquidity keep cutting deposit rate to lessen the liability while many of them are parking record amounts of surplus funds with the central bank's low-yielding deposit window called Standing Deposit Facility (SDF).

The SDF rate has come down to 7.50 per cent, much lower than that of call money.

According to Bangladesh Bank (BB) data, the deposit growth in the banking system was recorded at 7.77per cent in June last year. Afterwards, it started rising to reach 10.44 per cent in January this year followed by 10. 74 per cent and 11.36 per cent in June and July last respectively.

Seeking anonymity, a BB official said the volume of excess liquidity in the banking industry continued to rise in recent months due mainly to shrinking investment avenues under this macroeconomic sluggishness.

Citing data, the central banker said the volume of excess liquidity was less than Tk 2.80 trillion few months ago but it rose to Tk 3.37 trillion by end of May last--and the rising trend continued.

"So, this (excess liquidity) puts the banks in a problem as loan demand weakens. That's why banks are heavily relying on SDF," the BB official said.

According to the BB data, affluent banks all together kept around Tk 1.50 trillion in the SDF in June last, which is a record in the history of the banking sector.

The official data showed the monthly volume of funds banks parked into the SDF were recorded Tk 545 billion, Tk 578 billion, Tk 444 billion and Tk 444 billion in February, March, April and May last.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Mutual Trust Bank (MTB), feels the growing buildup of excess liquidity is likely to become a pressing challenge for many banks as investment avenues continue to shrink amid prolonged economic sluggishness.

He explains that, in terms of incremental deposit costs, banks are barely making any money, while blended deposit costs remain manageable for some institutions-at least for those considered better managed.

However, Mr. Rahman has cautioned that if the situation persists, commercial banks may ultimately have no alternative but to reduce both deposit and lending rates. In such a scenario, deposit rates may even fall further, thereby rendering the real income of depositors negative.

Managing Director and CEO of Southeast Bank Md. Khalid Mahmood Khan has said the bank has a target of reaching deposit portfolio of Tk 500 billion by the end of upcoming December but they have already reached the milestone.

The lender is concentrating on profitability buildup through reducing the cost of deposit. They have already cut the deposit rate by 50 basis points and the bank will hold an ALCO meeting later this week where further cut in deposit is expected.

Managing Director of Shahjalal Islami Bank Mosleh Uddin Ahmed says the rising stock of un-invested liquidity in banks is turning into a headache for many of them in recent months due to plummeting loan demand.

On squeezing investment avenues, the seasoned banker says the use of central bank's overnight deposit window called SDF by affluent banks is increasing.

According to the BB data, the private-sector-credit growth reached 4.62 per cent by end of July, the second lowest in the history of Bangladesh.

Director-General of Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM) Dr Md. Ezazul Islam notes that the liquidity glut in the banking sector is being created because of weak loan demand.

But the number and volume for the opening of LCs or letters of credit are increasing gradually, which gives early indication of economic recovery under the regime of this elected government.

"It's a temporary problem. I believe the credit demand from private sector would go up from the last quarter this year," the economist said, on a note of optimism.

The yields on 91 Days, 182 Days and 364 Days treasury bills stood at 8.31 per cent, 8.45 per cent and 8.47 per cent on Sunday.

At least $1.5 billion in identifiable corporate investment plan has been affected over the past four years as businesses were hit by external shocks, domestic political uncertainty, high borrowing costs and energy crises.

The investment plans and projects, disclosed by at least 10 companies and reviewed by The Daily Star, show how the turbulent business climate is weighing on private investment.

In taka terms, the total amount is equivalent to around Tk 18,000 crore, while at least 125,000 new jobs could have been created if the investments had materialised.

Some companies have scaled back expansion plans, while others have delayed projects or invested in manufacturing lines that have yet to begin production.

The consequences are being felt across the economy.

Delayed investment means factories remain unproductive, planned production and exports are held back, and thousands of potential jobs do not appear at all.

Businesses and economists say these problems are also discouraging new investment at a time when weak demand, high inflation and tight financing are already hurting economic activity.

BIG INVESTMENTS NEED PREDICTABILITY

Apparel manufacturer and exporter Newage Group planned a factory expansion worth around Tk 100 crore last year. But political uncertainty following the July Uprising got in the way of the plan.

“For me, the biggest concern is not the availability of opportunities, but the predictability required to make a long-term investment decision,” said Asif Ibrahim, vice chairman of the group.

After the general election in early 2026, Newage found its existing plants struggling by mid-year because of energy shortages. The setback led the company to shelve the expansion plan for now.

Asif said businesses need reliable energy, competitive financing, minimum predictable policies and economic stability before making major commitments.

The businessman’s comments show that political uncertainty and energy shortages did not occur in isolation. Rather, they were the latest in a series of business obstacles over the years.

For example, Maf Shoes, a sister concern of TK Group, announced a Tk 1,118 crore investment at the National Special Economic Zone in Mirsarai, Chattogram, in 2023. The investment was meant to set up an export-oriented footwear manufacturing unit and backward-linkage production lines for the shoemaker.

“We wanted to increase our exports and provide backward-linkage products to local footwear manufacturers,” said Mohammad Shahadat Ullah, executive director of Maf Shoes.

But the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, the latest Middle East conflict, high borrowing costs and persistent energy shortages forced the company to put the plan on hold, he said.

Shahadat said the company has decided to restart the project on a smaller scale, which would be completed within two years. But the revised investment plan is yet to be finalised.

He said uninterrupted gas and electricity supplies are their first requirement for expansion.

DELAYED PROJECTS RAISE COSTS

Whenever a business postpones an investment plan, one of the first and almost certain consequences is that the project will require more money in future.

For example, N Mohammad Plastic Industry Ltd, a concern of Chattogram-based N Mohammad Group, took up an expansion initiative in 2022. The initial cost estimate was Tk 500 crore.

But amid the Covid pandemic, external shocks and a worsening dollar crisis in Bangladesh, the plan was pushed to December 2025.

Though the group resumed the project last year, its cost has risen by more than 60 percent, according to Mohammad Nazrul Hoque, managing director of N Mohammad Group.

He said the company has spent more than Tk 60 crore developing the 10-acre site, but further investment remains stalled because of unreliable gas supplies.

“Without dependable gas, it is not commercially viable to proceed,” said Nazrul.

Another example of delays costing businesses is Bashundhara Multi Steel Industries. In 2022, it announced a 12.5-lakh-tonne-a-year steel plant at National Special Economic Zone, with around 7,000 potential direct jobs.

Masudur Rahman, media coordinator of Safwan Bashundhara Global, said eight banks approved a syndicated loan of Tk 2,305 crore, of which Tk 540 crore had been disbursed.

But the investment then faced a gas supply uncertainty. Currently, machinery worth hundreds of crores has been lying idle at the half-built factory, he added.

Masudur said the project cost has meanwhile risen from Tk 4,146 crore to Tk 7,118 crore because of delays, higher financing costs and taka depreciation.

FACTORIES READY, BUT GAS HOLDS THEM BACK

Three factories of Meghna Group of Industries at the Cumilla Economic Zone have remained idle for four years. The group invested around $700 million in a steel mill, glass plant and paperboard factory but has been unable to start production because gas and electricity supplies remain unavailable.

Since 2022, the group has incurred around Tk 80 crore in annual losses maintaining the idle facilities. It also provided Tk 100 crore each for grid development and Gas Transmission Company Limited (GTCL) pipeline infrastructure to accelerate connections.

The country’s first electric vehicle manufacturer, Bangladesh Auto Industries Ltd (BAIL), has readied its factory at the National Special Economic Zone in Mirsarai of Chattogram.

“We are 100 percent ready. We are only waiting for the gas connection,” said Mir Masud Kabir, managing director of BAIL. “Once we get it, we can start within seven days.”

Masud said BAIL’s investment in the vehicle project has reached around Tk 700 crore.

Contacted over new factories waiting for gas lines, Kazi Mohammad Saidul Hasan, general manager (Operations Division) of Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution PLC, said around 500 applications for industrial connections are currently pending with them.

But there is little prospect of providing new connections because of gas shortage, said Saidul. He said there would be no possibility of providing fresh industrial gas connections until 2030.

“Titas Gas is helpless in this regard,” he said.

The energy weakness is reflected in private credit demand for commercial lenders.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director and CEO of Mutual Trust Bank, said weak private-sector credit growth reflects subdued business activity. “If exports are not growing, why would an entrepreneur borrow to build a new factory when demand is weak?” he asked.

Taskeen Ahmed, president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said private investment stood at around 21.2 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2025-26, while net FDI fell to about $1 billion and credit growth dropped to 4.47 percent, its lowest level in 33 years.

A WARNING FOR ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT

Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), said the postponement of more than $1.5 billion in corporate investment is a serious warning for the economy and employment.

“Investment delays mean delayed factories, production and exports, as well as thousands of potential jobs,” he said.

The economist said the energy shortage remains one of the most immediate constraints facing potential investors.

M Masurur Reaz, chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange of Bangladesh, said continued high inflation, sluggish demand, energy disruptions and high borrowing costs are weighing on investment and weakening investor confidence.

Reaz said rebuilding confidence would require focused action on energy security, financing, foreign exchange, regulation and policy predictability.

US farmers have just begun harvesting another huge corn crop, following last year’s bumper harvest. But that apparent abundance in the top corn exporter masks a considerably less comfortable picture of world grain supply.

Global corn consumption is forecast to exceed production by nearly 30 million metric tons in 2026/27. According to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released last Friday, the deficit would be the largest in more than three decades.

Those supply concerns have already made an impression on prices. Corn, wheat and soybean futures have risen significantly in recent months, with Chicago corn staging a record 16 percent rally in August alone, a time when prices are often under seasonal pressure. So why are global grain supplies tightening when US farmers are producing so much? Part of the answer lies elsewhere in the world, and even outside grains themselves.

GLOBAL GRAIN CUSHION THINS

Combined corn and wheat production among major exporting countries is set to fall sharply from last year, even as US farmers begin bringing in their second-largest corn crop on record.

The projected year-on-year decline across those exporters is the largest by volume since 1993/94 and the steepest percentage drop since 2012/13, a season marked by heavy US drought losses.

Although crop prospects have recently improved for some key wheat exporters, that has not erased the broader setback in exportable grain supplies. And beyond the major exporters, total world wheat production, like corn, is also expected to fall short of consumption in 2026/27.

Export availability is another concern: combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat stocks are projected by the USDA to hit a 33-year high, as the war between the two leading suppliers continues to disrupt Black Sea trade. And the challenge may extend beyond this season.

GRAINS LOSING THE ACREAGE BATTLE

Over the last quarter-century, the world’s major agricultural exporters have dramatically expanded oilseed plantings, while grain acreage among key suppliers has stagnated.

Harvested area across major oilseed and oilseed product exporters in 2026/27 is more than double its 2000/01 level. Major grain exporters have expanded acreage by just 5 percent.

A closer look reveals that corn acreage has expanded substantially over that period, though wheat acres have contracted. In other words, the acreage constraint is not uniform across grains, but the overall contrast with oilseeds is unmistakable.

Yet grain demand continues to grow. Yield improvements have carried an enormous share of the burden, leaving less room for weather disappointments in years when grain acreage is relatively small.

Oilseeds are on the other side of the coin. Expanding acreage, particularly in Brazil, has been central to the explosion in global soybean production. But even there, acreage growth may be slowing.

BRAZIL HITS THE BRAKES

Brazil’s statistics body, Conab, on Tuesday issued its first 2026/27 soybean outlook, forecasting yet another record crop in the world’s leading exporter. But only fractionally so.

Brazilian farmers are expected to expand soybean plantings at the slowest rate in 20 years as weaker margins, expensive credit and fertilizer costs curb their appetite for more acres.

Add in what experts say could be the strongest El Niño on record, which threatens yields in top-producing Mato Grosso, and Brazil could be unusually vulnerable to an output decline.

The market isn’t used to that. For years, it could count on Brazil adding substantial acreage almost regardless of what happened elsewhere, often diluting the impact of year-to-year yield swings.

The grain story extends to Brazil, too. Conab sharply raised its 2025/26 domestic corn consumption estimate on stronger ethanol demand, meaning less of the country’s huge crop is available for export.

Brazil is expected to harvest another record corn crop in 2026/27, but the demand shift is a reminder that bigger crops do not necessarily translate into equally large gains in exportable supply.

SOLVABLE IN 2027?

None of this necessarily points to the kind of grain scarcity seen in 2012. The US still has a respectable corn supply buffer, Brazil remains capable of producing record crops and wheat is harvested around the world throughout the year.

But the point still stands: global grain stocks are a lot less comfortable than a year ago, and the recent rally makes clear that markets have noticed.

Exceptionally weak wheat prices helped US farmers go big on corn and soybeans in 2026, pushing all-wheat plantings to a record low. Wheat prices have since recovered, and the competition for next year’s acres is already heating up.

That could make another huge US corn planting slightly trickier in 2027, just when the global balance sheet may need it most.

The tea stall in Mohammadpur opens before the light does. A kettle hisses. Oil spits in a pan. The first customer is a rickshaw puller who has already counted the coins in his pocket twice. He orders what he always does: two buns and a glass of tea.

The tea costs Tk10. The buns are supposed to cost Tk10 each. But when he breaks one open, he notices what the sticker will not tell him. The bun is smaller. Not by much. But enough.

This is not a story about scarcity. It is a story about arithmetic performed in silence, at the bottom of a supply chain that stretches from the Black Sea to a cold storage in Rangpur, and ends at a tea stall where the numbers never quite add up for the person who can least afford the difference.

The bakery association had announced it would raise prices by up to 20% starting 12 September. A sack of refined flour had jumped from Tk3,000 to Tk5,600. A drum of cooking oil rose from Tk25,000 to Tk36,000. Sugar hit Tk120 to 125 per kilogram, up roughly Tk10 in a week. Bakery owners said production costs had climbed 20% to 30% over six months, driven by raw materials, energy, and transport.

On 15 September, the commerce ministry called a meeting. A committee was formed, led by the chairman of the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission, and given seven days to study the problem. The bakers agreed to put the hike on hold "for the time being." The headline said prices were stable.

What the headline did not say is what the bakers had already planned for the cheapest items. For the Tk10 bun, there would be no price increase. Instead, the bun would shrink. A 40 gram bun could lose about 5 grams. A 400 gram loaf could drop to 320 or 350 grams if the price stayed the same. The association called it a "modest adjustment." The customer, if he is paying attention, might call it something else.

The rickshaw puller knows the bun is smaller. He does not need a committee to tell him. He buys two buns instead of one, because one no longer fills the gap between breakfast and the first fare of the morning. His lunch just cost Tk20 instead of Tk10. The government held the price. The market held the scale. He held the difference.

This is not a case of scarcity. It is a structural condition of a country that imports more than 80% of its wheat. Domestic production meets less than 10% of demand. Bangladesh imported a record 7.25 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 fiscal year, the highest in its history.

Meanwhile, the area under wheat cultivation fell from 4.44 lakh hectares in 2015-16 to 2.8 lakh hectares in 2024-25, the lowest in at least a decade. Farmers are switching to maize and vegetables because wheat simply does not pay. When the global market moves, Bangladesh feels it. When the dollar strengthens, Bangladesh feels it. When a ship is delayed at a foreign port, the tea stall in Mohammadpur feels it.

This is not a case of scarcity. It is a structural condition of a country that imports more than 80% of its wheat. Domestic production meets less than 10% of demand. Bangladesh imported a record 7.25 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 fiscal year, the highest in its history.

The data tells a story of pressure that has not eased. Overall inflation in August was 8.26%, down slightly from July. Food inflation was 7.02%. Rural inflation, where the poorest households live, was 8.31%, higher than the national average. The committee's report will not change these numbers. The report is not designed to change them. It is designed to buy time.

The government bought seven days. In seven days, the headlines will move on. The committee will submit its findings. The price hike may be gradually implemented or restructured into another form of shrinkflation. The problem will remain: a nation that cannot feed its bakeries without ships from abroad, and a working poor that measures its day in buns that keep getting smaller.

The rickshaw puller in Mohammadpur has finished his tea. He has two buns in his hand, each one slightly lighter than it was last week. He does not know about the committee. He does not know about the Trade and Tariff Commission, or the seven day deadline, or the press release from the commerce ministry. He knows what his hands know. He knows the bun is smaller. He knows he is still hungry.

The government held the price. The market held its breath. And the man with the rickshaw held the difference, one gram at a time.

Zakir Kibria is a Bangladeshi writer, policy analyst and entrepreneur based in Kathmandu, Nepal. His email address is zakir.kibria@gmail.com

Ending a continuous depreciation trend spanning five and a half years, the Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) has shown signs of appreciation against the US dollar, according to a Bangladesh Bank (BB) report released on Sunday.

On a point-to-point basis from June last year to June this year, the value of the Taka appreciated by 0.06 per cent. Furthermore, between August 30 and September 17, the local currency strengthened by 0.77 per cent against the greenback.

Central bank data shows that the Taka experienced an unbroken streak of depreciation against the US dollar from 2021 until September 17 this year. During this period, the exchange rate surged from Tk 85.80 per dollar to a record high of Tk123.95—reflecting a devaluation of Tk 38.20, or 45.05 per cent, reports UNB.

However, the trend began reversing in the second half of this year. After peaking at Tk 123.95 on August 30, the dollar rate dropped by 95 paisa to Tk 123.00 on September 17, resulting in a 0.77 per cent gain for the Taka over those three weeks.

According to central bank statistics

End-December 2019: The dollar traded at Tk 84.90.

End-December 2020: The dollar fell by 10 paisa to Tk 84.80, appreciating the Taka by 0.12 percent due to lower pandemic-era import demand, reduced global commodity prices, and robust remittance inflows.

End-December 2021: Rising import demand and surging global prices pushed the dollar to Tk85.80, devaluing the Taka by 1.18 per cent.

End-December 2022: Fueled by the Russia-Ukraine war, global fuel and commodity prices spiked, increasing import bills while exports and remittances slowed. The dollar jumped to Tk105.85—a Tk 20.05 or Tk23.37 per cent increase—devaluing the Taka by an equivalent margin.

End-December 2023: Continued pressures raised the dollar rate by Tk4.15 or 3.92 per cent to Tk 110.00.

End-December 2024: The dollar climbed another Tk 10.00 to Tk 120.00, eroding the Taka’s value by 9.09 per cent over the year.

End-December 2025: Depreciation persisted as the dollar reached Tk122.33, up Tk 2.33 or 1.94 per cent over the year.

The Bangladesh Bank report also compared regional currency movements from June last year to June this year

Depreciated Currencies: The Indian Rupee depreciated by nearly 9.5 per cent, the Sri Lankan Rupee lost over 10 per cent, and the Indonesian Rupiah declined by around 9 per cent.

Appreciated Currencies: The Malaysian Ringgit and Chinese Yuan both gained nearly 4.0 per cent, while the Pakistani Rupee appreciated by around 2.0 per cent.

The central bank noted that after a prolonged period of weakening, the Bangladeshi Taka has shifted to a relatively stronger position.

Economic Implications:

A depreciating Taka directly elevates import costs for fuel, industrial raw materials, and food items, passing price increases onto consumers, driving inflation, and dampening real purchasing power—especially for low- and middle-income households. It also increases the domestic currency burden of servicing foreign debt.

Conversely, a strengthening Taka relieves pressure on import expenditures and lowers the local currency cost of foreign debt servicing, though the broader impact will depend on future trends in imports, exports, remittances, foreign exchange reserves, and international market conditions.