Bangladesh Bank has offered a series of concessions to reduce defaulted loans, including rescheduling with nominal down payments and one-time settlements with interest waivers. But the concessions have failed to draw in large defaulters. The number of large and medium-sized defaulters is steadily rising, while the number of small borrowers in default is falling.

The number of defaulters in the banking sector fell from 4,486,286 at the end of June 2025 to 3,946,914 in June 2026, according to central bank data. None of those who dropped off the list was large borrowers. The number of borrowers with BDT 10 million or more in defaulted loans instead rose by 530 over the period, whereas defaulters with loans of up to BDT 10 million fell by 539,902.

The figures, published on Sunday in Bangladesh Bank’s Banking Sector Update report, set out a striking disparity across loan sizes. At the end of June, 33.2 percent of all loans disbursed by the banking sector were in default. The default rate for small loans was less than half that average, with loans of up to BDT 10 million carrying a default rate of 15 percent.

For larger amounts, default rates rise sharply. Loans of BDT 10 million to BDT 100 million stand at 26.9 percent in default, rising to 44.6 percent for loans between BDT 100 million and BDT 200 million. The rate sits at 37.9 percent for loans of BDT 200 million to BDT 300 million and 38.8 percent for BDT 300 million to BDT 400 million.

Borrowers with loans of BDT 400 million to BDT 500 million have the highest default rate — 46.4 percent. Those with more than BDT 500 million are close behind: Bangladesh Bank reports that banks cannot recover 43.4 percent of loans taken by this group, which has shown little response to recovery appeals.

More than 70 percent of bank lending is concentrated in large and medium-sized industries, according to the central bank’s report, and nearly 40 percent of the loans disbursed to those sectors are now in default.

Defaulted loans across the banking sector as a whole exceeded BDT 6.06 trillion at the end of June 2026, with large and medium businesses accounting for nearly 80 percent of the total. Central bank data show that banks had BDT 18.08 trillion in total outstanding loans, 60 percent of which went to large industries, where 39.6 percent of disbursed funds have turned bad.

Medium industry received 6.7 percent of all lending, with 38.7 percent in default. Small and micro industry, key to the rural economy and employment, received just 13.5 percent of bank lending, while cottage industry accounted for only 1.9 percent.

Bank executives and others involved in the sector say small and micro entrepreneurs repay their bank loans, but large entrepreneurs have created a culture of borrowing without repayment. They allege that money was siphoned out of more than half the country’s banks during the 15 years of the ousted Awami League government through loans, with the collusion of bank boards and management. After the July 2024 uprising, many businessmen identified as bank looters fled the country, while others were arrested and remain in prison.

These factors have contributed to a continuing decline in recovery rates for large loans, according to stakeholders. By contrast, small entrepreneurs continue to repay bank loans despite economic stagnation, high inflation and higher interest rates.

Arief Hossain Khan, the central bank’s spokesman and an executive director, told Bonik Barta that genuine entrepreneurs always repay their loans, with CMSME borrowers leading the way.

“For several years, we have been pressing for more lending to micro and small entrepreneurs. It didn’t take much effect for a long time, but lending to the sector has risen since last year,” he said. “We hope that in the coming years the CMSME sector will be able to play a bigger role in the economy.”

Among the country’s banks, BRAC Bank PLC lends the most to CMSME borrowers. The bank’s default rate is currently below 2 percent overall and about 1 percent on small loans, according to managing director and chief executive Tareq Refat Ullah Khan.

“Half of BRAC Bank’s loan portfolio is in the CMSME sector, and nearly half of that has gone to micro-businesses,” he told Bonik Barta. “Our recovery rate from those micro-entrepreneurs is the best of any group. If the right person is chosen for a small loan, it shouldn’t go into default. What we have seen is that these entrepreneurs are eager to repay.”

Getting loans to micro and small entrepreneurs requires a nationwide physical network and close supervision to ensure funds are used properly, Khan added. BRAC Bank employs about 10,200 permanent staff alongside more than 3,500 other people who work with the bank, most of them assigned to SMEs.

While this keeps the bank’s income-to-expense ratio relatively high, Khan attributed it to the foundation of BRAC Bank’s success. He added that many had initially been wary of investing in the sector, but that “greater expertise over time would help bring down costs” and the model would then become profitable.

The recent pullback in the global AI trade has improved investor positioning, made valuations attractive and could spur a re-engagement, particularly in semiconductor stocks, JP Morgan analysts said on Monday.

“Tech may not return to past levels of success...still, the fundamental case is constructive and there are plenty of opportunities within the AI complex,” JP Morgan analysts led by Mislav Matejka said in a note.

The brokerage said investor positioning in AI has become cleaner, valuations have fallen significantly across most areas and capital spending is likely to remain strong, despite recent concerns about a slowdown.

JP Morgan added that continued earnings strength and growing evidence of AI monetization should support renewed interest in the sector.

AI stocks rallied at the start of the year but have since weakened on concerns over capex spending and its immediate returns.

AI-linked stocks plunged earlier this month, after top AI executives warned about the risks of rapid development.

JP Morgan sees better trading ahead on earnings strength and reduced macro volatility. The brokerage retains a bullish stance on semiconductor stocks, citing healthy fundamentals, pricing growth into 2027 and tight supply-demand conditions likely to persist until 2028.

JP Morgan remains cautious on software, adding that AI growth continues to cloud the sector’s long-term outlook as competition intensifies.

“We do not think Software is a good naked short, given the dramatic de-rating, but semis vs software pair trade should be re-entered,” the brokerage added.

The MSCI World Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment Index, a performance gauge for global semi stocks, has risen about 48 percent so far this year.

The MSCI World Software and Services index has gained only 1.3 percent.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) is pushing for a unified, secure back-office software system for brokerage houses to prevent the misuse of investors' funds and detect financial irregularities in real time.

The system would give regulators real-time access to brokers' bank balances and funds held in customer clearing accounts (CCAs), enabling daily reconciliation and early detection of any shortfall, BSEC Chairman Masud Khan said today (28 September).

"We need a unified back-office software that will be highly protected and provide real-time data from brokers so that we can conduct complete reconciliation every day," he said at a programme in Dhaka.

He was speaking at the inauguration of the distribution of Investor Protection Fund (IPF) money to investors affected by financial irregularities at brokerage houses. The event was organised by the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) at DSE Tower.

Masud said financial irregularities involving five securities houses had affected 17,967 investors, with Tk492 crore involved in the cases.

Calling the scale of the problem concerning, he said the BSEC, DSE and investor representatives had begun a coordinated effort to address the losses.

The IPF was originally established to address settlement risks in the capital market. But it has assumed broader importance in Bangladesh following cases in which brokerage houses failed to safeguard investors' money, Masud said.

He stressed that preventing such incidents would require stronger technology-based surveillance rather than reliance on manual regulatory oversight.

Under the proposed digital framework, regulators would be able to regularly verify the funds held by brokerage houses in their bank accounts and CCAs. Such real-time monitoring could reduce the need for extensive direct intervention, he said.

Masud also called for further development of order management systems (OMS), saying the capital market needs stronger digital infrastructure to keep pace with a technology-driven financial system.

17,332 investors to get initial compensation

DSE Chairman Mominul Islam said five brokerage houses had taken investors' money or securities into their own accounts through various means and subsequently failed to return them.

"Investing in the capital market involves both gains and losses. Share prices rising and falling is a normal and internationally recognised feature of markets. But when investors suffer because of irregularities by a market intermediary, it seriously damages their confidence in the capital market," he said.

According to Mominul, the DSE has identified 17,967 affected investors. Of them, 17,332 will receive full payment of up to Tk5 lakh each from the IPF in the initial phase.

Masud said around 96% of affected investors have claims below Tk5 lakh, meaning the initial reimbursement will cover the vast majority of those affected.

Investors with claims above Tk5 lakh will be compensated in phases, he said, adding that authorities expect to eventually cover all affected investors through the IPF and other legal mechanisms.

Mominul said the DSE and other market stakeholders would continue efforts to recover the remaining amounts for investors whose claims are not fully covered initially.

He acknowledged the financial and emotional hardship caused by the brokerage failures and said restoring investor confidence would require coordinated efforts by the BSEC, the two stock exchanges, Central Depository Bangladesh Ltd (CDBL) and brokerage houses.

Determining the identities of the 17,967 affected investors, calculating their investments and establishing their final balances had been a challenging process, but the DSE management had completed the task, he said.

The IPF is partly financed by contributions from the brokerage community. A major source of the fund is brokers' trading commissions and 25% of the interest earned on CCA accounts, according to Mominul.

He said the DSE's compensation initiative would not have been possible without contributions from brokerage houses.

As the US monetary tightening cycle gets underway, Asian markets face a formidable headwind, yet the structural impact will diverge sharply by country and sector.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh announced on September 16 that the US central bank was hiking its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points.
But even more importantly, the Fed signalled that further increases could be coming to help combat inflation that has been above the 2 percent target for over five years. Fed officials’ views, encapsulated in the so-called “dot plot”, indicate that one more rate hike is likely this year.

Markets, meanwhile, are expecting as many as three more rate hikes through the middle of next year.

This hawkish shift in monetary policy is expected to affect Asian economies and financial markets through several interconnected channels, including by spurring capital outflows, weakening domestic currencies and bumping up inflationary pressures.

But the effects should be far from uniform across the region. Higher US yields can draw global investors to dollar-denominated assets, leading to capital flight from emerging Asian markets.

During the first 15 years of this century, US Treasury yields plummeted to ultra-low levels, especially following the global financial crisis of 2008-09.

This triggered an avalanche of foreign capital into Asian equities.

However, that began to change during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, only to worsen following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which compounded inflationary pressures and helped push rates higher.

But it was the onset of the US-Israeli war with Iran this year that truly saw foreign investment flows into Asia collapse.

Driven by US 10-year yields hovering at 4–5 percent, estimated monthly foreign-equity outflows reached a record $192 billion through September 25 — far eclipsing the previous 2025 peak of $45 billion, based on data from Asian stock exchanges.

Predictably, many Asian currencies weakened significantly against the dollar during this period.

Economies with current account deficits — such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines — were hit the hardest, as they rely heavily on foreign investments to finance their trade shortfalls.

Meanwhile, the currencies of economies running current account surpluses, like China and South Korea, have appreciated.

Obviously, other factors are at play here, especially in China, which doesn’t have a freely floating currency, but the pattern still holds.

All of this suggests that if US interest rates continue to rise, the currencies of deficit economies could continue to slide further. Depreciating local currencies typically fuel imported inflation.

In the current episode, this dynamic is amplifying many other domestic price pressures impacting Asian economies, including the global energy supply shock and the El Nino weather pattern.

Deficit countries in Asia with weak currencies are, unsurprisingly, seeing some of the highest levels of inflation.

At the end of August, inflation stood at 4.8 percent in India, 3.2 percent in Indonesia, and 6.1 percent in the Philippines. These countries have also already notched multiple rate hikes this year.

Since May, Bank Indonesia has hiked rates three times by 100 basis points cumulatively, while the Philippines’ central bank has done so three times since April for a combined increase of 75 basis points.
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China, Taiwan and Malaysia remain Asia’s notable inflation exceptions.

This reflects weak domestic demand in China, while Taiwan and Malaysia have enjoyed relatively stable exchange rates and tariff cuts, meaning pressure on their central banks to hike rates is virtually non-existent. Equity market valuations are also at risk across the region.

Over the past decade, three instances of rising yields in Asia have been accompanied by declines in forward price-to-earnings (PE) multiples in various Asian equity markets, as rising discount rates have mechanically dragged down valuations.

In the present episode, as the average 10-year yield in Asia rose from 3.4 percent in late October 2025 to 4.2 percent in late September, the 12-month forward PE multiple for the FactSet Asia Market Index declined from 16.7 times to 12.5 times.

This trend could clearly worsen if US rates rise more than markets currently expect. Different sectors should react differently, however.

“Long duration” equities – meaning companies whose value primarily resides far out in the future – obviously tend to see their valuations fall more due to the rising cost of capital.

Technology often falls in this category.

It’s unsurprising, therefore, that the PE multiples of the South Korean and Taiwanese markets – which are dominated by tech giants like Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC – have declined the most during the latest US yield surge.

Soaring interest rates also jeopardize sectors dependent on high leverage or credit-driven demand.

This hits capital-intensive industries like real estate and utilities facing higher refinancing costs, alongside consumer discretionary stocks constrained by tighter household borrowing.

The most leveraged markets are the Philippines, Thailand and China, which had net debt-to-equity ratios in 2025 of 118 percent, 105 percent and 86 percent respectively, according to FactSet.

Banks and insurers, on the other hand, are usually the winners during global rate tightening cycles.

For banks, lending rates typically outpace deposit rates, boosting net interest margins.

That was evident in the 2022–23 cycle, when the average net interest margin for Hong Kong’s top 10 banks climbed from 1.41 percent to 1.65 percent.

Insurance companies, meanwhile, can keep investing their new premium income in progressively higher-yielding bonds as rates rise, typically boosting their profitability.

Markets with heavy financial weightings according to FactSet — led by Singapore at 47 percent of the market, Hong Kong at 32 percent, Malaysia at 31 percent, and India at 26 percent — stand to benefit the most from these dynamics.

As rising capital costs reshuffle Asia’s economic deck, a sharp line is being drawn between resilient, low-inflation Asian economies and those burdened by heavy deficits and spiralling inflation.

That line could deepen in the coming months.

Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) will refund up to Tk 500,000 in full to 17,332 investors who suffered losses from irregularities and embezzlement by brokerage houses, paying out of its Investors Protection Fund (IPF), DSE Chairman Mominul Islam said Monday.

Speaking at the DSE's inauguration ceremony for IPF disbursement, Mominul said investing in the capital market can bring both profit and loss, and share price fluctuations are natural, reports UNB.

"But when investors suffer because of irregularities by a market intermediary, it seriously damages their confidence in the market. Such incidents are not acceptable in any way," he said.

Mominul said several brokerage houses failed to discharge their responsibilities in the past. "Five of them diverted investors' money or shares into their own accounts and later failed to return them.”

According to the DSE, 17,967 investors are currently affected.

Of them, 17,332 will get their full money, up to Tk 500,000 each, from the IPF in this phase.

For investors who will not receive their full money at this stage, he said, initiatives will be taken to return it quickly. "The DSE and other market stakeholders will work on this through legal means."

Expressing regret to the affected investors, the DSE chairman said they had invested their hard-earned money in the market with great hope.

He apologised for the mental and financial hardship they endured because of the irregularities.

To prevent such incidents in the future, he urged all market stakeholders, including the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), the two stock exchanges, the Central Depository Bangladesh Limited (CDBL) and brokerage houses, to work together. He expressed hope that collective efforts would fully restore investor confidence.

He said verifying the information of 17,967 investors and determining their investment records and final balances was a difficult task, which DSE management completed.

He expressed hope that the refund process would also be carried out properly.

Regarding the fund's sources, Mominul said the main sources are brokerage houses' trade commissions and 25 per cent of the interest earned on Customer Consolidated Accounts (CCA). "This DSE initiative would not have been possible without the contribution of brokerage houses."

Expressing hope that the positive trend in the country's capital market would strengthen further, he said building a strong and transparent market is a shared goal.

All stakeholders must work together to develop the capital market as a key pillar of the economy, he added

Phoenix Finance and Investments Ltd, sponsor of Phoenix Finance 1st Mutual Fund, plans to sell 20 lakh units of the closed-end fund after its unit price surged 263% in recent months.

The sponsor will sell the units from its 1.2 crore-unit holding at the prevailing market price through the Dhaka Stock Exchange by tomorrow (28 September), according to a disclosure.

The fund's unit price rose to Tk18.50 on 22 September from Tk5.10 on 8 April, before undergoing some correction. Following the announcement, the price fell 3.89% on Monday to close at Tk17.30.

At the latest market price, the planned sale would be worth around Tk3.46 crore. Phoenix Finance had earlier sold 10 lakh units of the fund in the last week of April, according to market data.

The planned sell-off comes despite weak fundamentals and the fund's decision to pay no dividend for the financial year ended 30 June 2026.

In August, the trustee committee declared no dividend for FY26. The fund reported earnings per unit (EPU) of Tk1.64, compared with a loss of Tk0.17 a year earlier. Its net asset value (NAV) per unit stood at Tk8.84 at market price and Tk12.13 at cost.

Net operating cash flow per unit (NOCFPU) remained negative at Tk0.47 in FY26, compared with negative Tk0.06 in FY25.

ICB Asset Management PLC is the fund's asset manager, while Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB) serves as its trustee and custodian.

The second shipment of uranium fuel required to start Unit 2 of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant may arrive in Bangladesh in the first week of next month (October), Russian nuclear company Rosatom has assured the Ministry of Science and Technology.

TBS learned this from officials of the ministry and people involved in the project.
Initially, the shipment was scheduled to arrive on 24 September but was delayed after the Russian authorities failed to secure permission to use Pakistani airspace for the cargo flight.

A senior ministry official, speaking to TBS on condition of anonymity, said transportation of the fuel from Russia to Rooppur is the responsibility of the Russian authorities under the project agreement.

"Rosatom has informed us that they will arrange the fuel shipment as soon as possible. They have mentioned 1 October as a possible date, while the first week of October is the latest timeframe," he said.

"According to the schedule, the fuel was supposed to arrive on 24 September. We had made all necessary preparations at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport. Later, Rosatom informed us that the flight could not operate because permission to use the airspace had not been obtained," he said.

Rosatom's Bangladesh office issued a statement today (28 September) that the delivery of nuclear fuel for Unit 2 is scheduled to begin in October and continue through December 2026, with the supplies to be completed by the end of December.

The fuel will be shipped in several flights, in accordance with the contract terms and the project schedule, according to it.

Following the delay, Science and Technology Minister Faqir Mahbub Anam told the media that a cargo aircraft carrying uranium for the Rooppur plant had been scheduled to arrive on 24 September.

"However, the flight was not permitted to use Pakistani airspace. As a result, the uranium did not reach Bangladesh as planned," he said, adding that said Bangladesh did not know the exact reason behind this.

Today, TBS also repeatedly tried to contact the minister and ministry Secretary Md Anwar Hossain for an update but could not reach them. Messages seeking information on the shipment also went unanswered.

Rooppur project director Dr Md Kabir Hossain told this newspaper, "I have no information about this. However, I saw the minister make statements about the issue in the media."

Bangladesh's first nuclear power plant is being built in Rooppur, Ishwardi, Pabna, with technical assistance from Rosatom and supervision by the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission.

The project has two VVER-1200 reactor units with a combined generation capacity of 2,400MW.

The first shipment of low-enriched uranium fuel for Unit 1 arrived from Russia on 28 September 2023. It contained 164 fuel assemblies manufactured at Rosatom's Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant.

The fuel was transported to Rooppur in radiation-shielded containers through a secured "green corridor", with the Bangladesh Army and law enforcement agencies providing security.

Bangladesh entered the nuclear power generation era in April this year when fuel loading began at Unit 1, paving the way for the country's first nuclear-generated electricity to be connected to the national grid.

Brent crude oil prices jumped more than 2% today (28 September) after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian peace proposal aimed at resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures rose $2.60, or 2.49%, to $106.92 a barrel at 0803 GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also climbed. WTI rose $2.08, or 2.25%, to $94.49 a barrel. The move came as markets reacted to uncertainty over the conflict and the future of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Why is oil price rising?

Trump's rejection of the peace proposal was a major reason for the rise in oil prices. Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said oil prices appeared to have jumped after Trump rejected Iran's proposal, as reported by Reuters.

Iran had presented the peace proposal last week at the UN General Assembly in New York. Iran said the proposal had been sent to the US through Qatari mediators as part of efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict. Trump said on Saturday that he had rejected Iran's plan. However, he also said on Sunday that he expected US negotiators to hold more talks with Iran during the week. Trump made the comments in a phone interview with Axios.

Strait of Hormuz oil supply

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the oil market. The waterway is a major route for global oil shipments, so any disruption or uncertainty around its reopening can put upward pressure on crude prices.

Oil prices are rising despite some recovery in shipments through the Strait. Hussain said higher flows through Hormuz have reduced some of the pressure on oil prices, but the broader oil market is still facing a supply deficit. That means the market is still worried about a shortage of oil. Even though more barrels are moving through Hormuz, total supply has not fully caught up with demand, keeping the oil market in deficit. Capital Economics' Hussain said, according to Reuters.

Middle East oil exports rise

There is also a wider security risk in the Middle East. Yemen's Saudi-led coalition said early Saturday that it had intercepted two ballistic missiles and two drones launched by Iran-backed Houthis toward Saudi Arabia.

At the same time, Middle East oil exports have started recovering. Crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers reached 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the war began in February. Preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters showed this.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates helped drive the increase in exports. Their higher shipments pushed regional oil exports higher in September even as the conflict continued. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz also recovered. Shipments through the waterway were expected to reach about 7.4 million barrels per day in September, according to the preliminary Kpler data.

US diesel export ban fears

Saudi Arabia also changed its export route after attacks damaged its East-West pipeline. The country diverted some oil exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu to its eastern Ras Tanura port. The oil market has also been dealing with uncertainty over US diesel exports. Brent gained only 0.4% last week, while WTI fell more than 7%, partly because investors were worried that the US could ban diesel exports to bring down record-high domestic diesel prices.

A US diesel export ban could also affect US oil production. Markets are concerned that limiting diesel exports could reduce refinery operations in the US, which could then affect demand for crude oil. Diesel prices in Europe have also surged. The premium of European low-sulphur gasoil over Brent crude futures reached a record of about $95 a barrel last week, showing how tight the global diesel market has become.

Global diesel shortage

The diesel shortage has been linked to a wider global supply problem. Prices have reached record levels, and Trump's support for a possible US diesel export ban has added another layer of uncertainty to the market.

Goldman Sachs warned that a US diesel export restriction could affect markets far beyond America. Europe and Latin America, especially Brazil and Mexico, are major destinations for US diesel exports, according to Reuters.

A US diesel shortage could push other countries to compete for available fuel. Goldman Sachs said Europe and Latin America could start buying more diesel from other suppliers, including countries such as India, which could spread the supply shock to Asia.

Goldman Sachs estimated that the impact could increase European diesel prices quickly. The bank estimated that each week of a US diesel export ban could raise European wholesale diesel prices by about $3 a barrel, or just under 2%.

What could happen to oil prices?

So, the latest Brent price rise is being driven by several risks at the same time: Trump's rejection of Iran's peace proposal, uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, the continuing Middle East conflict, a global oil-market deficit and tight diesel supplies.

For now, the key question for oil markets is whether US-Iran talks can reduce the conflict and keep oil flowing normally through Hormuz. Trump has rejected Iran's current proposal but has also indicated that US negotiators could hold more talks this week.

A kilogram of animal feed that sold for around Tk68 in early August now costs up to Tk72.50, an increase of nearly 7%.

Feed manufacturers, however, say they are still incurring losses of more than Tk3 per kg as finished-feed prices have not fully reflected rising raw-material costs.

Industry insiders said feed prices had increased twice in a month as major raw materials became more expensive, forcing feed mills to absorb losses, farmers to cut production and consumers to pay more for eggs and chicken.

Over the past month, corn prices have increased by about 24%, de-oiled rice bran (DORB) by 27% and soybean meal by 20%, according to industry stakeholders.

Prices of other protein sources have also risen, while exchange-rate fluctuations have added pressure on imported ingredients.

Infograph: TBS
Infograph: TBS

Mosharraf Hossain Chowdhury, president of the Bangladesh Poultry Industries Association (BPIA) and managing director of Astha Feed Mill, said soybean prices had risen from around $430 per tonne in August to $530, an increase of more than 20%.

He said feed prices were increased by Tk2 per kg in late August following requests from small feed millers, while a further Tk2.50 increase was made in mid-September to reduce losses faced by small and medium-sized feed mills.

"There is no alternative to increasing feed prices when the price of soybean rises so sharply. Even after increasing prices twice, we are still losing more than Tk3 per kg," he said.

The price of corn with 13% moisture has risen to Tk38.80 per kg from Tk31.30 a month ago. DORB has increased from Tk26 to Tk33 per kg, while rice bran containing 16% oil has risen from Tk33 to Tk39. Mustard oilcake has increased from Tk36.50 to Tk39.70.

ATM Habibur Rahman, chief business officer of Akij Feed Mills, said corn prices had risen particularly sharply.

"During March-April-May, corn was available at Tk28-29 per kg. But in June, July and August, the price increased to Tk38-40," he said.

International corn prices have also risen from around $235-240 per tonne to nearly $290, he added.

According to Habibur, raw materials account for around 80-85% of the total cost of producing quality feed.

"When the prices of corn, soybean meal, rice bran and DORB rise in the local or international market, it becomes difficult for feed mills to sell feed at the previous price," he said.

He said a Tk4.50 increase in the price of feed per kg should raise the price of chicken by no more than Tk6 per kg.

However, supply-chain disruptions are a major reason behind the volatility in the market.

He also cited gas and electricity shortages as additional cost pressures, saying disruptions were raising production costs and reducing demand.

Habibur further said feed prices have a relatively limited impact on the prices of chicken and eggs.

Small farms cut production

Rising feed costs are forcing farmers to reduce production, with feed accounting for a major share of poultry farming expenses.

Amir Hossain, a broiler farmer in Kutbari village of Mawna, Gazipur, used to buy around 30 sacks of feed a month. He has reduced this to 28 sacks and cut the number of chickens on his farm.

"Prices of different types of animal feed have increased by Tk2-3 per kg over the past week. The price of a 50kg sack of feed has increased by as much as Tk150," he said.

A 50kg sack of rice bran has risen by Tk500 to Tk1,800, while corn has increased from Tk25 to Tk37 per kg. A 50kg sack of poultry feed now costs as much as Tk3,675.

"When feed prices rise, our costs increase, but we do not get a corresponding increase in chicken prices. So we have to reduce feeding. We have also reduced the purchase of chicks because we fear the birds will gain less weight," Amir said.

The rising costs have also triggered protests by farmers in Rajshahi, Gazipur, Pabna, Kishoreganj, Cumilla, Narsingdi, Dhaka, Kushtia and Mymensingh since early June.

Farmers have demanded lower feed prices, reduced taxes and duties on imported raw materials, and fair prices for eggs and chickens.

Pabna farmer Jibon Islam said feed accounts for around 80% of production costs for some farmers.

"It is becoming increasingly difficult for farmers to survive by purchasing feed at higher prices. Load-shedding has also caused deaths of chicks, increasing our losses," he said.

Russell Pradhan, general secretary of the Bangladesh Marginal Poultry Farmers Council, said supplies of locally produced DORB and rice bran should first be secured for domestic demand.

"If necessary, VAT, taxes and duties on imported raw materials should be reduced. Market monitoring should also be strengthened to prevent artificial shortages," he said.

State Minister for Fisheries and Livestock Sultan Salahuddin Tuku said the government was working to reduce the cost of feed and other production inputs.

"Reducing production costs is essential if we want to ensure safe and affordable poultry products for people," he said.

Pressure reaches consumers

The rise in feed prices is also pushing up consumer prices as higher production costs and lower farm output put pressure on egg and chicken supplies.

In Dhaka markets on Saturday, farm eggs were selling at around Tk150 per dozen and broiler chicken at Tk190-200 per kg.

Before August, broiler chicken sold for Tk170-180 per kg and farm eggs for Tk130-140 per dozen. Prices rose at the beginning of August and have not returned to those levels.

Mohammad Liton of Ma Rokea Boiler House at Karwan Bazar said floods, excessive rainfall and heat had caused deaths of laying hens and broilers at many farms over the past five or six months.

"Many farmers did not restart production. Recent load-shedding has also reduced poultry farming. These factors have contributed to higher egg and chicken prices," he said.

Pubali Bank, one of the largest private commercial lenders, has emerged as a potential interested party in Standard Chartered Bank Bangladesh's retail banking business, alongside BRAC Bank and City Bank, as the British lender reportedly considers exiting retail banking to focus on corporate and institutional banking.

Standard Chartered has made preliminary approaches to potential buyers, although no deal structure or timeline has been finalised, according to people familiar with the matter.

If a formal sale or transfer process begins, the portfolio would be subject to valuation, audit, due diligence, and regulatory approval.

Standard Chartered's retail and CMSME loan portfolio stood at around Tk8,479 crore at the end of 2025, while retail deposits were around Tk8,000 crore, according to the bank's financial information.

Why Pubali is being considered

Pubali Bank has been expanding its retail banking operations beyond traditional branch-based services, with greater emphasis on retail loans, cards, digital banking, QR payments and self-service banking.

The bank's Managing Director and CEO Mohammad Ali has also identified retail banking as one of its key areas of future growth.

StanChart Bangladesh plans to close retail banking operation
Pubali currently has a retail loan portfolio of around Tk8,000 crore, accounting for more than 10% of its total loans. Its retail products include personal, home, car and nano loans.

Standard Chartered's retail business has a significant base of priority and high-value customers, including salary-account holders working for multinational and large corporate organisations, as well as longstanding retail banking customers.

Integrating such a portfolio with Pubali's existing retail operations could expand the bank's customer base in higher-value segments, according to a senior Pubali Bank executive.

Financial capacity

Pubali's balance sheet and financial indicators would also be relevant in assessing its ability to acquire a sizeable retail portfolio.

According to its published financial information for 2025, the bank had total assets of around Tk118,014 crore, deposits of Tk89,519 crore and loans and advances of about Tk71,141 crore.

The bank's profit after tax stood at around Tk1,080 crore in 2025, while its return on equity was 15.51%. Its non-performing loan ratio was 2.20% at the end of the year.

Pubali recorded around Tk685 crore in consolidated profit in the first six months of 2026.

What does StanChart's retail banking exit mean for Bangladesh?
These figures indicate the scale of Pubali's balance sheet relative to the retail portfolio under discussion. However, any acquisition would depend on the valuation, transaction structure, funding requirements and regulatory approvals.

Branch network and digital services

Pubali's nationwide branch network is another factor that could be relevant to a potential transaction.

Standard Chartered has a comparatively limited physical footprint in Bangladesh, with 18 branches, according to published information.

Pubali, in contrast, operates more than 500 branches and over 280 sub-branches across the country. The bank also inaugurated its 1,000th ATM/CRM booth in 2026.

A combination of Standard Chartered's largely urban and premium customer base with Pubali's broader physical network could expand access to branches, sub-branches and ATM/CRM facilities.

Pubali has also been investing in digital banking through its PI Banking platform, which offers services including NPSB, BEFTN, RTGS, transfers to mobile financial services, bill payments, credit card services and Bangla QR payments.

The PI Digital Platform had around 528,000 active users at the end of 2025 and processed more than 18.6 million transactions during the year.

Any transfer of Standard Chartered's retail business would involve more than loans and deposits. Customer accounts, cards, payment channels, digital banking services and customer data would also have to be migrated while ensuring continuity of service.

At this stage, however, no transaction involving Pubali Bank has been finalised.

In the coming weeks, biscuits and spices may start arriving in slightly smaller packets, while dealers and retailers of atta, maida and suji may receive lower commissions on each packet sold.

Some companies may also tweak their recipes. Liquid soap and detergents, for example, could contain less active material while maintaining product performance. Inside factory premises, manufacturers may also increasingly turn to cheaper solar power and try to get more from their existing workforces.

All the changes are aimed at keeping retail prices unchanged even though the latest fuel price hike has raised production and transport costs. Local fast-moving consumer goods companies say they simply cannot pass on those costs to consumers as high inflation continues to erode purchasing power for years.

In the third week of September, the latest round of fuel price adjustments increased prices of diesel, petrol and octane by Tk 20 a litre, citing volatile global market rates and rising subsidies. The increase pushed up the prices of almost everything, from fresh vegetables, poultry and meat to basic grocery items.

Amid fuel and energy shocks that have raised overall business costs by around 30 percent in recent years, local conglomerates say they are absorbing the higher costs rather than raising product prices.

Ahsan Khan Chowdhury, chairman of industrial conglomerate Pran-RFL Group, said the company has not increased product prices after the fuel price hike. Instead, Pran is making gradual cost adjustments to cope with it.

He said local consumers tend to buy according to fixed price points. People have historically bought products at denominations such as Tk 1, Tk 2, Tk 5 and now Tk 10. Increasing the price of a product from Tk 5 to Tk 6 would be difficult because Tk 6 is not a convenient or commonly used price point in the market.

“So, we may have to reduce costs from certain areas. This could be gradually reducing packaging sizes or product weights,” said the chairman of Pran-RFL, the largest agro processor in Bangladesh.

Ahsan described this as a means of survival for the business.

He also said that, for some small products, supplying them in bulk and offering them as loose products can help companies save on packaging costs, while consumers can also save money if they are willing to accept it.

Super shop outlets such as Shwapno and Meena Bazar also said companies have not raised retail prices after the fuel price hike. Visits to a number of grocery stores in Dhaka found no supply shortages or delays in the availability of essential consumer products following the fuel shock too.

Neaz Morshed, assistant director of Category Management at Shwapno, said there had been no price revisions since the latest fuel price hike.

Meanwhile, Meghna Group of Industries, another major industrial conglomerate, said it has not increased product prices despite the fuel hike and higher transport costs. It has no plans to raise prices in the immediate future either.

Meghna Group Chairman Mostafa Kamal said higher vehicle fares and transport costs will affect businesses and consumers. The cost of sending a truck from Dhaka to Dinajpur, for example, has increased from Tk 20,000 to Tk 30,000.

With transport costs rising across shipments, there is hardly any margin left, he said.

“At some point, the situation may force us to reduce our profit margins. Retailers may face margin cuts and get less promotional gifts from us,” Mostafa added.

Companies pay commissions to dealers, wholesalers and retailers from their revenue.

Like Pran and Meghna, ACI Consumer Brands, which markets food items under the ACI Pure brand, said manufacturers could not increase prices overnight as they had to consider consumer behaviour and purchasing capacity.

“Price points are very sensitive. When prices increase suddenly, consumers tend to dislike the move and may avoid purchasing the products. This ultimately affects the business,” said Md Quamrul Hassan, executive director and chief operating officer of ACI Consumer Brands.

Quamrul said their profit margins have been under pressure for the past two years because of rising utility costs, while the latest fuel hike has added to packaging costs.

Luthful Kabir Shaheen, director of business development at City Group, another large local conglomerate, said the company is trying to absorb market pressures, support retailers and minimise the impact on consumers.

RN Paul, managing director of RFL, said the company’s profit margin has fallen from 3 percent to around 1 percent recently. “We sacrifice that 2 percent, but we cannot raise prices because consumers are not in a position to absorb the increase,” he said.

He said RFL has responded by cutting expenses, installing solar power and improving labour productivity.

Against this backdrop, business growth is likely to face greater pressure in the coming years.

“Suppose our business grows 10 percent, but achieving even 3 percent growth in profit now becomes a struggle,” Md Parvez Saiful Islam, CEO of Square Food & Beverage Ltd, said.

“We are now working hard just to maintain last year’s profitability,” he said.

Meanwhile, RFL’s Paul said he expects the company to grow by only 5 percent this year, compared with 15 percent previously.

The government is formulating separate export strategies for 18 key markets, including India, China, Russia, Iran and the US, focusing on market potential, existing barriers, competitors and measures needed to expand Bangladesh's exports.

The strategies will identify potential products for each market, assess Bangladesh's current position and major competitors, and outline policy and institutional measures to increase exports.

The remaining markets include Malaysia, Singapore, the UAE, Switzerland, South Korea, Brazil, Turkey, the UK, France, Japan, Canada, Belgium, Australia, New Zealand and Fiji.

Australia, New Zealand and Fiji have been treated as a single region, as the three countries are part of Oceania.

Commerce Secretary Md Ataur Rahman Khan disclosed the plan while chairing a workshop "Bangladesh Export Diversification Strategy: Product and Market Diversification Across 18 Key Trading Destinations" at the Secretariat yesterday (28 September).

He said both product and market diversification were being prioritised to make the exports stronger and more sustainable.

"Detailed information on the selected 18 export destinations is being collected and analysed to prepare country-specific profiles and actionable strategies," he said.

This information collected on market conditions, export barriers and potential products will be consolidated to prepare separate action plans for each market, making it easier to determine which products have the greatest potential, who Bangladesh's key competitors are and what measures are needed to remain competitive, according to the secretary.

The ministry is using a specific matrix to analyse the 18 markets. It covers Bangladesh's share of total exports to each country, major competitors for specific products, ways to improve competitiveness, and policy and institutional measures required for market expansion.

"Analysing these 18 key markets will help identify new potential products, expand markets for existing products and determine the necessary steps to enter new markets," the secretary said.

At the workshop, CPD Distinguished Fellow Dr Mustafizur Rahman said export diversification should not focus only on products, stressing the need to give equal importance to services.

He called for greater support for information technology, a skills-based economy, capacity-building services and freelancers.

Improving skills and technological capabilities is crucial to strengthening Bangladesh's competitiveness in global markets, he said, urging greater use of technology in both manufacturing and services.

He also suggested stronger efforts to increase exports to neighbouring countries by leveraging geographical proximity and market potential.

Representatives from BGMEA, CPD, Walton Group, Bangladesh Agro-Processors Association and the pharmaceutical sector, among others, presented recommendations at the event.

Participants stressed the need to make pharmaceuticals, electronics, agricultural and processed agricultural products, leather and leather goods, light engineering, IT and other services more competitive globally alongside the garment sector.

They said Bangladesh has production capacity and potential in these sectors but needs stronger measures to improve market access, technology, skills, competitiveness and policy support.

Checking digital heist and cyberattack into financial institutions is one of core objectives of the comprehensive project.

Bangladesh Bank is going to execute the scheme to strengthen safeguards for the country's financial sector through technology-enabled banking, the officials said Monday.

"Under the US$400-million financial support from the World Bank, the central bank is going to implement the Financial Sector Support Project-II (FSSP-II) for conducting massive reforms and improvement in the country's banking operations," said one official.

Bangladesh Bank officials have said they will strengthen supervisory capacity and ICT systems through development of ICT infrastructure and capacity building of the financial sector in Bangladesh.

At a cost of Tk 12.76 billion, the project is likely to be approved by the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) at its meeting today (Tuesday).

Following numerous challenges facing the country's banking sector, including high levels of NPLs, weak governance, liquidity and capital pressures in some banks, and outdated information and communication technology (ICT) systems, the central bank has undertaken the project.

The NPLs in Bangladesh's banking sector ballooned to Tk 6.06 trillion as of June 2026, representing 32.78 per cent of total disbursed loans, central bank data showed.

According to the BB, the project will also provide advisory and consultancy services to improve institutional capacity and procurement related to ICT infrastructure.

A senior central bank official said, "Strengthening the financial-sector safeguards, technology-enabled banking and banking-sector reforms are among the core objectives of the project."

On completion of the project, the country's banking system will be "very tech-driven and scam like the reserve heist in 2016 would be checked", he hopes.

The central bank will strengthen financial-sector safeguards and banking-sector restructuring, including the financial-sector safeguards, bank resolution and reform of state-owned banks.

It will also seek to enhance the financial capacity of the Deposit Insurance Trust Fund (DITF) and improve the effectiveness of bank resolution and restructuring.

The BB official has said outdated ICT infrastructure and a lack of integrated information management have made it difficult for regulators to respond effectively to emerging risks, including cyberattack and trans-border financial risks.

"These challenges have collectively threatened depositor confidence and financial and economic stability," he added.

The project is being taken as a continuation of the first phase of the Financial Sector Support Project (FSSP), implemented by Bangladesh Bank.

In the next phase of the FSSP-II, the strengthening of the financial-sector safeguards through Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) and facilitating banking-sector-reform activities will be continued.

"Increasing the financial capacity of the DITF for deposit-insurance operations, ensuring effective implementation of bank resolution and restructuring, including reducing payment periods, and improving governance and financial stability of state-owned banks will be our major reform areas," the central banker said.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have continued to pull out funds from Bangladesh's equity market as they have been moving assets to developed markets amid persistent macroeconomic challenges stemming from geopolitical tensions.

Net foreign portfolio investment in Bangladesh fell to a negative $223 million in FY26, compared with an outflow of $138 million a year earlier, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

It was the sixth consecutive year of net outflows, meaning foreign investors sold more securities than they bought in a given year.

Repeated policy interventions, particularly imposition of floor prices, banking-sector stress, currency volatility and weak investor sentiment have contributed to the deterioration in foreign participation.

The trend has continued in the current fiscal year, with foreign ownership declining in several major listed firms in July and August amid weak corporate earnings, higher operating costs and a persistent energy crisis.

It is particularly striking when foreign investors returned to net buying in Asian stocks in August after a nine-month selling streak.

Foreign investors bought a net $4.72 billion of stocks in Taiwan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines during the month, according to Reuters. India alone attracted $3.1 billion of net foreign purchases, marking a second consecutive month of buying that outstripped selling.

Market participants said overseas investors were becoming increasingly selective, favouring markets and companies that offer greater liquidity, stronger earnings prospects, easier market access and clearer policy visibility.

Md Akramul Alam, head of research at Royal Capital, attributed the foreign fund outflow to weak investor confidence, a strong US dollar and instability in the financial sector.

"The overall economic activity has remained sluggish, while the profitability of major listed firms has been subdued by high input costs," he said.

Private-sector credit growth was reported at 4.62 per cent in July, reflecting subdued business confidence and tighter lending conditions.

Mr Alam said the prospect of a sharp recovery in private-sector credit demand appeared limited after the central bank decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at 9.5 per cent until December.

Meanwhile, the US-Iran war has triggered renewed volatility in global oil markets, while the latest fuel price hike in the local market has raised fresh concerns about inflation and its broader economic impact on the oil-importing economy.

Inflation remained around 9 per cent, while analysts warned that price pressures could persist in the coming months because of the latest fuel price increase and elevated import costs.

The strong US dollar and relatively attractive returns on US assets are adding further pressure on frontier equity markets.

Higher US Treasury yields have strengthened the incentive for global investors to hold relatively safer dollar-denominated assets rather than take on additional currency and liquidity risks in frontier markets such as Bangladesh.

Besides, foreign investors typically seek a stable, predictable and consistent policy environment before making long-term commitments.

"When the local currency weakens, foreign investors incur losses as the value of their assets falls even when share prices remain unchanged," said Mir Ariful Islam, managing director and CEO of Sandhani Asset Management.

Foreign investors are likely to look for greater policy clarity and consistency before increasing their exposure to Bangladesh's equity market.

Multinational companies, traditionally among the preferred choices of foreign investors, have failed to escape the selling pressure.

Lower-than-expected earnings and higher operating costs have weakened the investment appeal of large companies.

Grameenphone, the largest listed company by market capitalisation, reported a 6 per cent year-on-year decline in profit to Tk 14.2 billion in January-June this year, while its revenue fell 2.5 per cent during the period.

Its foreign ownership consequently fell to 0.17 per cent in August from 0.25 per cent in June this year.

Similarly, Marico Bangladesh's foreign stakes fell to 0.91 per cent in August from 0.99 per cent in July this year.

Among local companies, Olympic Industries recorded a similar decline, with foreign ownership falling to 27.33 per cent from 27.51 per cent during the period.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) Chairman Masud Khan expressed optimism that foreign investors will gradually return to the country's capital market as the regulator addresses some of the barriers that have discouraged overseas investment.

Speaking at a recent event, Mr Khan said Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) would resume regular reviews of Bangladesh's index from November this year following the removal of floor prices on the remaining two stocks — Beximco and Islami Bank — in July.

Regular MSCI reviews, coupled with easier repatriation of dividends, could help restore overseas investors' confidence in the market and attract fresh foreign capital.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman met Wall Street’s leading investors and asset managers in New York on Friday, urging them to invest in Bangladesh to take advantage of the country’s growth potential.

The meeting, hosted by leading global investment bank JPMorgan, brought together executives from BlackRock, PIMCO, TPG, Jane Street, Macquarie, GoldenTree Asset Management and MetLife, along with representatives of several private capital firms, according to media reports.

A downturn in the funneling of inflation-fueling high-powered money into the market reverses significantly and stokes fear of spikes in the inflationary pressure on living and economy.

Money-market experts have pinpointed several factors, including the central bank's growing quasi-fiscal activities and the regulator's liquidity support to the struggling banks, largely contributing to the recent leaps in reserve-money growth.

Under a tight monetary-policy regime pursued by the central bank until July last to tame obdurate inflation, the inflow of the reserve money dropped to a negative growth of 0.12 per cent in June 2025. In a rebound since, it has risen significantly in recent months.

Apart from the regular liquidity-feeding instruments of the Bangladesh Bank (BB), they said, the flow of subsidised credits or money injection through irregular arrangements keeps rising on the money market, which is contradictory to the spirit of contractionary monetary-policy stance.

As a matter of fact, the BB-claimed tight monetary policy is not transmitting into the money market properly and not being able to contain the inflationary pressure at the expected level.

This shortcoming in regulating money supply as per policy is ultimately hurting common people through eroding their purchasing power.

According to latest BB data, the growth in the reserve money was recorded 0.12-percent negative in June last year. Afterwards it started leaping to 2.52 per cent, 3.47 per cent, 9.23 per cent, 13.35 per cent and 14.39 per cent, 15.25 per cent and 17.86 per cent in July, September, December of 2025, February, April, June and August this year respectively.

Reserve money is the total amount of currency in circulation plus commercial banks' deposits held at the central bank, acting as the foundation for the entire monetary system.

It is also called "high-powered money" because it forms the foundation for the expansion of bank deposits through the money-creation process.

Seeking anonymity, a BB official said the central bank, in fact, did nothing to control the higher inflation apart from continuing a higher policy rate of 10 per cent since October in 2024.

"The volume of quasi-fiscal activities by the BB through which commercial banks avail credits from the regulator at subsidised rates, ranging from 0.5 per cent to 5.0 per cent, is still quite large," he told The Financial Express

On the other hand, the central banker added, regular government borrowing from the central bank through using ways and means, amounting to maximum Tk 120 billion, and overdraft worth maximum Tk 120 billion, goes on to operate some 119 accounts at 8.0 per cent and 9.0 per cent respectively.

"Certainly, it (reserve money growth) is a concern for all of us because it fuels inflation to some extent," he said.

Considering possible spikes in inflation following latest upward revision of fuel prices and reserve-money growth, the central banker said, the banking regulator decided not to cut the policy rate (now it is 9.50 per cent) until December next.

Overall inflation in Bangladesh eased slightly to 8.26 per cent in August 2026, down from 8.32 per cent in July, according to data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

Apart from growing government bank borrowing and quasi-fiscal activities, Director-General of Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM) Dr Md. Ezazul Islam points out that the regulator has purchased more than US$6.0 billion since July 13 last year to stabilise the exchange rate and injected huge volumes of money into the market. These all factors contributed to the rising growth of reserve money.

But the money-multiplier effect was not too high because of lower credit demand by the private sector. The credit appetite of the entrepreneurs is expected to increase in the coming days.

"If the uptrend in reserve money continues and private-sector-credit growth gets enhanced, it will be an issue of serious concern in the context of a tight monetary stance," the monetary economist added.

A sharp decline in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports in September has tightened supplies, pushing the retail price of the widely used 12-kg cylinder more than Tk400-Tk500 above the regulator-fixed rate.

LPG importers and Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) sources said the country imported around 160,000 tonnes of LPG in August, while imports so far this month have fallen to about 120,000 tonnes, a 25% decline.

The supply squeeze has pushed the retail price of a 12-kg cylinder above Tk2,000 in recent days, against the BERC-fixed price of Tk1,585 for September.

Industry insiders attributed the shortage mainly to disruptions along key shipping routes, a vessel shortage and sharply higher freight costs amid the ongoing conflict and attacks in the Middle East.

Supply routes disrupted

The closure and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea route have severely affected LPG shipments from the Middle East, Bangladesh's main sourcing region. Importers are increasingly dependent on longer, costlier routes, while higher international LPG prices have further raised import costs.

"The main problem is cargo availability. Cargo is simply not available," said Abu Sayed Raza, chief marketing officer of Meghna Fresh LPG Ltd.

"Previously, while one route might have been restricted, at least one remained open; now, both routes are blocked – the Red Sea route and the Strait of Hormuz route," he said, adding that only small and irregular quantities were arriving through alternative routes, including Oman, Malaysia and Norway.

Importers said suppliers under term contracts were also unable to provide their full contracted volumes. Raza said traders had informed his company they could not supply 20% of the agreed monthly volume.

"Under the BERC pricing mechanism, the premium was set at $160 last month. We are ready and willing to pay a premium of $250 to $300 to secure the product, yet we still cannot obtain the cargo," he said.

Tanzeem Chowdhury, CEO of Omera Petroleum Limited, said the company imported around 30,000 tonnes of LPG in September. "Supply uncertainty from the producers' end has created a disruption, but we are trying our best to keep the market sufficiently supplied," he said.

Members of the LPG Operators Association of Bangladesh (LOAB) said some importers were receiving 30%-40% less than their contracted volumes, while spot-market availability had also fallen sharply.

They said the BERC pricing mechanism had previously factored in an import premium of around $160 per tonne, while traders now faced premiums of 260-400. Some companies have therefore reduced or halted imports rather than incur losses on cargoes whose higher costs cannot be reflected in the regulated retail price.

Consumers bear the brunt

Consumers are now paying the cost of the supply disruption. Although BERC cut the official price of a 12-kg cylinder by Tk13 to Tk1,585 on 2 September, consumers in many areas are paying Tk500-Tk600 more, taking the price above Tk2,000.

BERC Chairman Jalal Ahmed told The Business Standard that the September market was experiencing a supply shortage after some companies failed to receive scheduled imports. "We will hold talks with LPG importers to keep the supply normal," he said.

Bangladesh has annual LPG demand of around 1.5-1.6 million tonnes, with nearly 10 million consumers relying on the fuel. Household cooking accounts for about 80% of consumption. Private companies supply around 99% of the market, while state-owned firms account for about 1%.

The country faced a similar crisis in December last year after private-sector imports fell sharply. The government subsequently authorised Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) to import LPG directly.

However, efforts to secure suppliers were unsuccessful except for Speed Marketing, which was awarded a contract through direct procurement to supply 5,000 tonnes. The cargo's arrival date remains uncertain.

Jalal Ahmed warned that the LPG market could deteriorate further in October if sufficient cargoes are not secured, as international supplies remain tight amid shipping disruptions.

Bangladesh’s bond market is growing as banks and companies show greater interest in issuing bonds. But the market remains far smaller than its potential, with concerns over weak accountability of bond issuers, auditors and credit rating agencies holding back growth.

To make the market more vibrant, sustainable and trustworthy, all stakeholders, including bond issuers, financial report auditors and credit rating agencies, must be held accountable, top industry executives said at a discussion titled “Unlocking Bangladesh’s Bond Market: Opportunities, Challenges” at The Daily Star Centre yesterday.
The Daily Star organised the event as part of its discussion series under the broad theme “Business & Beyond”. It was the fifth episode of the series.
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Credit rating is full of fun here. There is no credibility of the rating, so no one invests in bonds based on the rating, but issuers take the rating only for regulatory requirement.
Tanzim Alamgir, MD & CEO, UCB Investment.

The discussants called for greater market liquidity, increased institutional participation and easier access to bond investments. A top banker also recommended allowing banks to offer wealth-management services focused on sukuk and digital bond investments.

Tanzim Alamgir, managing director and chief executive officer of UCB Investment Limited, said liquidity remains a major challenge for the bond market. Bonds therefore need to be easy to trade.

He said a bond may offer a higher return than a bank deposit, but investors are reluctant to lock in their money for years if they cannot easily sell the security when they need cash.
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Audit firms should gain trust so that regulators and investors can trust their reports and take decisions quickly. In developed nations, regulators can approve bonds within a couple of days.
Nuzhat Anwar, MD of DSE.

The bond market should also be protected from the problems facing the banking sector, he said. Bonds should not be issued simply to repay bank loans.

Banks should stop providing “free money” through lending for their own interest and for the betterment of corporates, he said.

Banks will have to play a key role in making the bond market more vibrant and improving liquidity. Their wide branch network can be used to reach more investors.

Although banks fear losing fixed deposit receipt (FDR) deposits when customers invest in bonds, some banks have already started selling bonds and open-ended mutual funds, Tanzim said.

At the discussion, Nuzhat Anwar, managing director of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), said tradability is an issue that the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) is working on. The commission is imposing conditions on banks to ensure the listing of bonds.

The DSE has already responded to industry recommendations by reducing bond listing fees by 80 percent, she said.

Tanzim also welcomed the reduction in listing fees, calling it a good initiative by the stock exchange.

On the demand side, the DSE is identifying potential institutional investors, such as mutual funds and pension funds, and examining the barriers they face. Removing these barriers could create sufficient demand for bonds, Nuzhat said.

The DSE is also considering changes to the bond market-maker process so that other institutions can play a bigger role.

Nuzhat said public awareness is also crucial for developing the bond market. Investors should consider investing through mutual funds, which could be more suitable for them.

The stock exchange is already promoting financial literacy among students at private universities to raise awareness about wealth management, she added.
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Wealth management should be open for banks; then they will be able to advise savers on how they can diversify their investments and what options they have, like equity, bonds.
Nazmul Ahsan, Head of Treasury, BRAC Bank.

Nazmul Ahsan, head of treasury at BRAC Bank, said banks have a wide branch network outside Dhaka, but current regulations limit their ability to offer wealth-management services.

He said banks should be allowed to provide wealth-management services so they can advise savers on diversifying their investments and explain different options, including equities, bonds, mutual funds, sukuk and FDRs.

Tanzim said the bond market must ensure that subscribers get their money back. He recommended starting bond trading with banks’ bonds to avoid bad experiences caused by defaults.

He also called for all bond defaults to be reported to the Credit Information Bureau (CIB), regardless of who subscribed to the bond. At present, only defaults to banks are reported, while defaults to individual investors are excluded.

Tanzim also said JPMorgan’s inclusion of Bangladesh in its new frontier bond index is a positive development. It has put Bangladesh on the radar of global investors and could help attract more foreign investment.

STRONGER STANDARDS NEEDED FOR TRUST

Nuzhat highlighted the importance of sovereign bonds, saying they are essential for creating a benchmark for the country. Although issuing sovereign bonds may seem costly now, they can bring long-term benefits, particularly by helping attract foreign investment, she said.

Bangladesh’s market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio is 11.55 percent, among the lowest in the region. It is well behind India’s 128.14 percent, Malaysia’s 96.51 percent and Singapore’s 122.23 percent.

Even smaller economies such as Sri Lanka, at 21.74 percent, and Pakistan, at 14.48 percent, have deeper equity markets.

Explaining the reasons for the weak bond market, Nuzhat said investors have little incentive to buy corporate bonds when more secure government bonds offer similar interest rates. However, the situation is improving as treasury bond yields are falling.

As of August this year, government treasury bonds continued to dominate the fixed-income segment of the DSE Main Board.

A total of 217 government bonds were listed, accounting for 3,384.51 crore certificates. They had an issued capital of Tk 3,38,450 crore and total market capitalisation of Tk 3,39,505 crore.

By comparison, the corporate bond market remained much smaller, with just 16 listed issues covering 29.07 crore certificates. These corporate bonds had an issued capital of Tk 4,939 crore and a combined market capitalisation of Tk 4,040 crore.

Nazmul said the government and companies should focus on sukuk, which are Sharia-compliant financial certificates representing partial ownership in an asset, project or business activity, as they have strong demand among investors.

He also recommended developing a digital platform that would allow people to invest in bonds through their mobile phones.

At present, buying government securities remains cumbersome and relies heavily on paperwork, he said.

Despite these challenges, government bonds have already created a broad investor base. This investor base should now be used to support the corporate bond market by offering investors good-quality corporate bonds, Nazmul said.

He also said Bangladesh needs asset valuation and appraisal firms, as there are currently no such firms in the country.

Nuzhat said audit firms must earn the trust of regulators and investors so that they can rely on audit reports and make quick decisions.

In developed countries, regulators can approve bonds within a couple of days because they trust audit reports, she said. Without reliable reports, regulators cannot easily verify whether an issuing company has properly made its purchases.

The DSE has already held discussions with auditors to improve audit quality, and the situation is improving, Nuzhat said.

At the same time, credit rating agencies also need to bring more discipline to their work, she added.

Tanzim said rating agencies should face punishment if they fail to maintain standards. Credit ratings should be based on merit rather than obtained simply to meet regulatory requirements.

“Credit rating is full of fun here. There is no credibility in the ratings, so investors do not invest in bonds based on them. Issuers obtain ratings only to meet regulatory requirements,” he said.

Bangladesh’s two private mobile operators, Robi Axiata and Banglalink, have taken opposing positions on the auction of E-GSM spectrum, the frequency range that can travel long distances and penetrate buildings effectively.

Banglalink has urged the telecom regulator to defer any major spectrum-related decisions until the country’s new Telecommunications Policy is finalised, while Robi is pressing for the spectrum’s immediate release.

The development comes as the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) has decided to hold an auction of the spectrum this year. The regulator in April decided to auction the E-GSM band, ranging from 880 MHz to 888.4 MHz, which is important for providing coverage in dense cities and remote areas.

For customers, the additional spectrum could help improve network coverage and capacity, particularly in areas where mobile networks face congestion or coverage gaps. It could also support more reliable mobile internet services as operators deploy additional capacity on their networks.

In a letter to the BTRC on September 21, Banglalink said the commission should “maintain the status quo on major spectrum-related decisions, including E-GSM” until the forthcoming policy is completed.

The operator argued that spectrum assignment, renewal, pricing, tenure and payment structures should align with the government’s long-term direction on connectivity and digital inclusion, and warned that acting before the policy is finalised “may create inconsistencies between immediate regulatory actions and the government’s long-term strategic direction”.

The operator also flagged that the new policy is expected to enable active infrastructure and spectrum sharing among operators, which could alter spectrum requirements and necessitate the refarming of existing frequency assignments.

Allocating new spectrum beforehand risked fragmentation or inefficiency, said the letter, signed by Banglalink’s Chief Corporate and Regulatory Affairs Officer Taimur Rahman.

Banglalink called for a comprehensive review of the spectrum-pricing framework — balancing public revenue against operators’ capacity to invest — once the policy takes effect, “through meaningful consultation with industry stakeholders”.

Robi Axiata PLC, however, took the opposite stance.

In a letter on September 24, Robi urged the BTRC to expedite the release and assignment of E-GSM spectrum “in the greater interest of consumers and digital connectivity”.

Robi said delaying access would postpone network capacity and coverage improvements for subscribers, and argued that releasing the spectrum “has limited bearing on the finalisation of the Telecommunications Policy” and would not prejudice future frameworks on infrastructure or spectrum sharing.

Robi contended that pricing concerns need not hold up the release, noting that these could be addressed through the spectrum renewal process scheduled for November 2026, according to the letter signed by its Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director Ziad Shatara.

It also emphasised that the contiguity of any assigned E-GSM spectrum was essential to unlock its technical and economic value, warning that fragmented assignments would undermine spectral efficiency and investment certainty.

The operator said it remained committed to “commensurate investments” in network expansion if granted regulatory certainty and contiguous spectrum.

Contacted, BTRC Chairman Major General Md Emdad-Ul-Bari (Retd) said the process would continue as it is and that the commission had already received approval from the ministry to proceed with it.

“This has nothing to do with the policy,” he said. “The government has given permission to set the pricing for the auction, noting that it is within BTRC’s jurisdiction.”

The Iran conflict has put a spotlight on the somewhat murky world of refined fuel trading as the world battles constrained supply and record-high prices.

But it is AI that may bring the trading of diesel, gasoline and other products out of the shadows for good.
While crude oil trading practices have been established for decades, attracting a wide range of market participants, the same cannot be said of refined products.These markets, especially in the top-consuming region of Asia, have largely been the preserve of a rel-atively small group of traders who represent producers, refiners, shippers and large commodity hous-es such as Trafigura and Vitol.But every now and again, the market can shift, and AI may provide the tools needed to democratise this still opaque segment of the commodities trading universe.

The idea sounds simple: use AI to collate all available data, add in the knowledge of specialised traders and analysts, and generate trading ideas tailored to specific users and situations.

One of the leaders in this process is Sparta Commodities, a Geneva-based firm that initially made its name by providing data that allowed traders to work out arbitrage opportunities when moving fuels from one region to another.

Earlier this month, it launched Leonidas AI, a decision-making tool that aims to speed up the process by which traders use data to arrive at trading calls.

It takes all the available data from Sparta’s own sources and from other providers, adds in news and the experience of what the company calls a dedicated agent in order to make recommendations.

In a demonstration for Reuters, Leonidas AI was asked about the implications of any ban on US diesel exports for various markets.

Having come up with likely pricing moves, it was then asked to make trading recommendations.

It came up with five proposed trades, ranking them by conviction.

The recommendations also covered various markets in different countries, and there was even a freight recommendation.

This all took a matter of seconds, whereas up until now, it would have taken even skilled and experi-enced trading analysts some time to work out likely price moves and how best to profit from them.

Competitors in this space, such as Kpler and Windward, are already rolling out or developing similar products.

Kpler, which started as a vessel-tracking service, uses AI to compress data into what it calls “actionable strategies” that take into account factors such as geopolitics.

Windward, another player in the tracking business, uses AI to analyse historical data and vessel movement patterns in order to highlight anomalies, such as illegal ship-to-ship transfers of cargoes.

Players such as hedge funds, which previously believed they lacked the knowledge to go up against established traders in an opaque fuel market, may now be able to get and process the necessary in-formation just as fast.

Are there any weaknesses in adopting AI to inform trading decisions?

The obvious question is whether everybody will just get the same recommendations, resulting in high-ly crowded trades that eliminate the potential for profits.
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However, different users will be seeking different outcomes, which should mitigate this risk.

For example, a refiner may be willing to lock in a fixed price for some of its output of diesel and gaso-line, while a trader may be willing to take the risk that prices will rise before taking physical delivery, thus creating the potential for profit.

As a result, the refiner and trader should get different recommendations from AI even if they are using the same model.

Another obvious question is whether the recommendations are any good — something that will only become clear with time.

Pushback could also come from established players who may resist newcomers entering their markets.

A large trader could try to influence prices through a series of trades aimed at pushing smaller players into stop-loss situations.

But history suggests that over time the existing participants will have to adapt to changed circumstanc-es — whether they like it or not.

An example of this type of change is vessel-tracking of physical cargoes in real time.

These services — from firms like Vortexa and London Stock Exchange Group — only started emerging about 15 years ago, but have since grown into household names and enjoy widespread penetration among commodity market participants.

NO RAGE AGAINST CHANGE

At the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) earlier this month in Singapore, the main topic of conversation was how to resolve the Iran conflict and restore the flow of crude and products from the Middle East.

But the second most discussed issue was AI, with questions such as how companies are using it, and what the advantages and risks are.

Across numerous conversations at the event, it became clear that commodity executives expect AI to play an increasing role in data collection and analysis, as well as in operations such as shipping and inventory management.

The overall idea is that it’s pointless to rage against change. Rather, it’s preferable to be an early adopter and leader.

In a best-case scenario, AI will level the playing field in the trading of commodities that are currently the preserve of small groups of experienced participants.

As Sparta CEO Felipe Elink Schuurman put it, the trading desk that used to win was the one with the most information, but the new winners will be the ones that can turn data into trading moves fastest.

Bangladesh Bank has introduced a new resolution framework for Bangla QR merchant payments, requiring banks, mobile financial service providers and payment service providers to resolve customer complaints within fixed timeframes.

The central bank issued the "Guideline on Dispute Resolution for Bangla QR (Merchant Payment) Transactions" today (27 September), which will take effect on 1 December.

Under the guideline, if a customer's account is debited but a transaction fails and the merchant does not receive the money, the issuing bank or MFS provider must automatically reverse the amount without requiring a complaint.

The reversal must be completed in real time or within 30 minutes.

For disputes that cannot be resolved automatically, customers can file complaints within 45 days of the transaction. The issuer must accept or reject a claim within two working days.

If the issuer fails to respond within the deadline, the case will move to a formal chargeback process through the National Payment Switch Bangladesh's centralised dispute management system.

The acquiring institution will have seven days to respond to a chargeback claim. If the dispute remains unresolved, it can proceed to arbitration, which must be completed within 30 days.

The guideline introduces eight standardised chargeback reason codes covering issues such as non-receipt of goods, duplicate payments, incorrect billing and cases where the merchant is not credited despite the customer's account being debited.

It will also introduce a transaction status inquiry mechanism, allowing issuing institutions to instantly verify unclear payment statuses with acquiring institutions. The mechanism is expected to reduce the need for manual dispute filing.

Penalties for missing transaction evidence

The guideline makes institutions responsible for providing transaction evidence during dispute investigations.

If an acquirer fails to provide required electronic journals, transaction logs, receipts, SMS records or other valid evidence, it must refund the disputed amount and may face an additional penalty of up to the same amount.

Merchants seeking refunds will have 60 days to submit requests, while acquiring institutions must respond within two working days.

The guideline also sets a 30-day period for investigating suspected unauthorised or fraudulent transactions.

Customers must be reimbursed within three business days if an institution's system failure or security lapse is found to have caused the loss. However, claims may be rejected if evidence shows that the customer was negligent or engaged in misconduct.

Bangladesh Bank warned that banks, MFS providers and other payment service providers may face supervisory action for failing to meet the stipulated deadlines or unjustifiably rejecting customer claims.

The new framework aims to make Bangla QR payments more predictable and secure for customers and merchants while strengthening confidence in the country's digital payment ecosystem.