Sri Lanka announced a $126 million fuel subsidy on Tuesday to contain the rapidly rising price of diesel -- key for public transport -- as inflation spiked to a 38-month high.

Import-dependent Sri Lanka has raised fuel prices by about 50 percent as the Middle East war, which broke out in February, caused a surge in global energy costs.
Government spokesman Nalinda Jayatissa said motorists would not have to bear the full cost of diesel for three months from October, but there would be no subsidy for petrol.

He said $175 million had already been spent subsidising both diesel and petrol in the first three months after the war broke out. “We are trying to make sure that the increase is not too steep, at least for diesel,” Jayatissa told reporters in Colombo.

“Our hope is that the war in the Middle East will end soon. Very high global oil prices are hurting us badly.”

The government restored the diesel subsidy despite warnings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the country could slip back into a financial crisis unless it ensures full cost recovery on energy sales.

Sri Lanka’s inflation hit a 38-month high of 8.0 percent in August as prices of food and other essentials rose across the board.

The country has warned that any prolonged conflict in the Middle East could threaten its fragile economic recovery from the meltdown of 2022, when the country ran out of foreign exchange to finance essential imports.

The Asian Development Bank has signed a $50 million loan deal with Modern Syntex Limited (MSL), a concern of TK Group, for its energy-efficient polyester chips manufacturing project in Bangladesh.

The financing will support MSL’s expansion of its polyester chips production capacity from 107 tonnes to 407 tonnes per day and refinance short-term local working capital loans.

The expanded facility will produce high-intrinsic viscosity polyester chips used in higher-value textile and apparel products.

“Bangladesh’s textile and ready-made garment industry is a key driver of the economy, but it continues to rely heavily on imported synthetic inputs,” said ADB Country Director for Bangladesh Qingfeng Zhang.

“ADB’s long-term financing will help MSL expand efficient domestic production, deepen backward linkages, strengthen supply chains, and support higher-value textile manufacturing. The project will also contribute to the development of the Mirsarai Economic Zone and support Bangladesh’s efforts to attract investment, create jobs, and enhance economic competitiveness.”

The project will introduce energy-efficient machinery, which is expected to save about 4,840 megawatt-hours of electricity and reduce carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by about 2,222 tonnes each year.

It will also help MSL pursue Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Platinum certification for its building and factory, ADB said in a statement.

The project is expected to strengthen Bangladesh’s textile value chain by increasing the domestic supply of polyester chips, reducing reliance on imports, shortening lead times, and improving efficiency for textile manufacturers.

It will also create about 100 new jobs and promote greater participation of women through inclusive recruitment practices.

“We greatly value ADB’s support as it enables MSL to significantly expand polyester chips production, strengthen local supply chains, and reduce dependence on imported inputs,” said MSL Managing Director Abu Sufian Chowdhury.

“By investing in advanced energy-efficient technology, we are improving our competitiveness while supporting a more sustainable textile industry. We believe this project will create long-term value for our customers, the manufacturing sector, and the broader economy.”

MSL operates Bangladesh’s first continuous polymerisation facility, strategically located in the Mirsarai Economic Zone in Chattogram, close to major port and logistics infrastructure.

The company manufactures polyester chips, synthetic yarn, and fibre, primarily for domestic textile manufacturers.

ADB is a leading multilateral development bank supporting sustainable, inclusive, and resilient growth across Asia and the Pacific.

Working with its members and partners to solve complex challenges together, ADB harnesses innovative financial tools and strategic partnerships to transform lives, build quality infrastructure, and safeguard our planet.

Founded in 1966, ADB is owned by 69 members, 50 of which are from the region.

Visa has open-sourced part of its AI-powered cyber defence system after “humbling” lessons from vulnerabilities exposed by AI models, as the payments giant braces for autonomous cyberattacks ​and future quantum-computing threats.

Visa processes roughly a billion payments a day worth around $15 ‌trillion a year, making it a key part of the world’s financial plumbing system.

Its President of Technology, Rajat Taneja, told Reuters the company had made its cyber defence system available as open-source software after weaknesses exposed ​by Anthropic’s Mythos AI model earlier this year highlighted the scale of the challenge.

The vulnerabilities ​were “humbling”, Taneja said, adding that the attack by AI agents on the Hugging Face platform may also prove to be an early glimpse of a more serious future threat.

“It’s ​hard to predict how bad it could get, but we have seen the trailer,” Taneja said, ​referring to how the AI models escaped a testing sandbox in the Hugging Face incident.

“Often the trailer is the highlights of the movie, (but) I think this is just a small snippet of what the movie will ​look like, so we have to prepare for it and we have to have a ​mindset that acknowledges this technology’s power”.

As well as the dystopian warnings about AI’s threat to humanity, global regulators fear ‌a major AI-controlled cyberattack could undermine confidence, opens new tab in the world’s financial system. Visa has plenty at stake. Payments firms rely on trust, meaning cyberattacks can be devastating. It has also started allowing certain AI agents to use Visa.

Taneja did not provide details on how many of those payments were happening, but industry estimates, opens new tab suggest ​roughly a third of ​online commerce - close to $3.1 trillion in transactions - could run through AI agents by 2030.

According to Taneja, future cyberattacks will be adaptive, continuously learning and improving without direct ​human intervention, giving attackers a “superpower”.

“Human defences, which are kind of the current model, ​won’t work,” Taneja said. “If the adversary is agentic, then the defence has to be agentic too. Otherwise it is a mismatch”.

He also highlighted the longer-term challenge posed by quantum computing, saying that Shor’s algorithm, opens new tab could one day enable ​powerful quantum computers to break the current encryption standards ​that underpin global commerce.

He said firms would therefore have to continue looking for ways to neutralise that risk.

“We have to ​have optimism,” Taneja said. “But there is no easy answer.”

The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) on Tuesday approved a Tk 12.76 billion project to strengthen financial sector transparency along with 12 others.

Presided over by the Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, the ECNEC endorsed a total of 13 projects worth Tk 158.24 billion at its meeting in Dhaka.

Of the total proposed expenditures, Tk 101.88 billion will come from the local resources, Tk 52.53 billion from foreign loans, and Tk 4.51 billion from implementing agencies’ own funds.

Under the Tk 12.76 billion cost Financial Sector Support Project-II, the Bangladesh Bank will strengthen banking-sector supervision, improve financial-sector safety nets, upgrade Bangladesh Bank’s technology and enhance the capacity for bank resolution and restructuring.

The meeting also approved a third revision to the Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport expansion project, raising its cost to Tk 222.13 billion from Tk 213.65 billion under the second revision.

Other projects approved at the meeting include the Integrated Health System Response to Fight against TB, HIV/AIDS and Malaria in Bangladesh project and the first revised project for establishing Patuakhali Medical College and Hospital.

ECNEC also approved a project to develop and expand existing physical disability training centres in the Chattogram, Khulna and Rajshahi divisions, and to expand the hostel building and capacity of the institution for children with intellectual disabilities at Chattogram’s Roufabad.

Two water-resources projects were approved: one for integrated flood and river management and drainage improvement in the Bamni River Basin, including construction of the Musapur Regulator; and another to protect Shibpur, Dhania and Medua areas of Bhola Sadar and Daulatkhan upazilas from erosion by the Meghna River.

The meeting also approved the second revised project for establishing digital land-management systems through digital land surveys in three city corporations, one municipality and two rural upazilas.

Other approved projects include the third revised rural infrastructure development project in Madaripur, Shariatpur and Rajbari districts; the second revised project to enhance the technical and technological capabilities of the Special Response Battalion; land acquisition for a solar power plant in Sonagazi, Feni; and expansion of the electricity network in the three hill districts.

Oil prices and bond yields were higher in an uncomfortable combination for Asian equities on Tuesday, as investors braced for an interest rate hike in Australia and an era where short term borrowing costs settle at their highest for years.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield spiked to a 19-year high above 5.27 percent overnight for a rise of nearly 50 basis points through September. Yields rise when bond prices fall and the monthly selloff is the heaviest for two years.

The US 2-year yield has moved even further, shooting up more than 57 bps this month to the threshold of 5 percent, as traders figure that US growth and inflation will drive three more Federal Reserve rate hikes by the middle of next year.

Sovereign yields are an anchor for global markets, a reference price for investing in riskier stocks and a benchmark for mortgages and corporate borrowing. Higher rates mean pressure on government, corporate and household budgets.

Overnight only a massive $150 billion boost to a buyback plan by chipmaker Nvidia, which lifted the stock price, held the rates-sensitive Nasdaq to a fall of 0.9 percent.

In Asia, bond markets in Japan, South Korea and Australia traded under pressure and most regional equity markets slipped.

"The way to look at expected returns and overall bond yields going forward (is) we're coming to a new environment," said Angus Hui, head of fixed income at Fullerton Fund Management in Singapore.

"Interest expenses are increasing as a part of the government budget in a lot of developed markets," he said, which means stretching sovereign finances and perhaps limiting a recovery for bonds should the global economy slow down.

"Hence we think bond yields are unlikely to go back to the very good old days when bond yields were very, very low," he said.

No sign of a breakthrough in Middle East left Brent crude futures at $106.60 a barrel and climbing.

Fragile sentiment in China's technology sector, where stocks were hit on Monday by US plans to ban Chinese components from data centres, left the blue chip CSI300 index pinned to a one-year low.

The prospectus for US AI giant Anthropic illustrates the scale of the gamble on AI, with the company targeting a $2 trillion valuation, but planning to spend $518 billion on computing and infrastructure to build its transformative vision.

Foreign exchange markets were broadly steady through the Asia morning on Tuesday, leaving the dollar headed for a monthly gain.

The yen rose on Monday when Japan's top currency diplomat told Reuters that traders ought to heed the signal from Tokyo and Washington's united concern last week at yen weakness.

It hovered at 157.31 per dollar, while the euro held at $1.1367. The Australian dollar was steady at $0.7012, with a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike fully priced, along with another hike by February.

"We question whether the governor can be sufficiently hawkish to frank the markets current mindset, especially if the decision is not unanimous," said Damien McColough and Uma Choudhury, rates strategists at Westpac, in a note.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has found flaws in the proposed revenue-sector reforms tagged to the next credit programme for Bangladesh, officials said.
Advertisement

Ahead of the next annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group, slated for October 12-18 in Bangkok, the National Board of Revenue and the central bank submitted reform plans to the Fund.

A Bangladesh delegation, led by Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, will discuss the reform blueprint with IMF top bosses on the sidelines of the annual meetings.

Officials have said revenue-and banking-sector reforms will govern the talks so their submissions are getting importance in this case.

However, after getting the NBR's submission, the IMF officials found that the revenue board gave importance on this fiscal year's higher revenue-generation plan. The proposal lacks required plans for the coming years as to how reforms will be carried out to boost revenue collection.

The IMF officials did not find the plans, submitted by the NBR, dependable for higher revenue generation, sources said.

Now, the Finance Division has decided to hold a tripartite meeting virtually with the IMF and the NBR officials to minimise the gaps in the reform proposal, sources familiar with the developments said.

A senior Finance Division official told The Financial Express the submissions from the NBR and the Bangladesh Bank are very important since major reforms will be conducted under the next lending package centring these two top institutions.

He said revenue-sector reform will remain as top priority in the next programme since revenue generation remained very low in this country, which holds back required financing and development.

"The IMF will seek clear reform agenda from the revenue board and firm commitment from the government for their implementation in the next credit programme," said the official, seeking not to be quoted by name.

However, the official said, the main negotiation for the new credit programme will take place after the annual meeting and the gaps will lessen then.

The finance officials are expecting to secure some $4.0 billion under the new lending package to attain macroeconomic stability.

The previous credit programme of $5.5 billion was scrapped by the current government few months after coming to power as it found conducting many reforms, negotiated by previous Awami League government, not feasible.

Under the previous lending package, the IMF had released in total $3.595 billion until the termination.

Bangladesh Bank has issued the country's first guideline for operating Islamic Credit Cards (ICC), allowing Islamic banks and Islamic windows of conventional banks to offer Shariah-compliant credit cards under specified models.

Issued on Sunday, the guideline requires banks to avoid riba (interest), maysir (gambling) and gharar (uncertainty) and follow specified Shariah-compliant structures for ICC transactions.

Banks can offer ICCs under two models. The Qard Hasan with Ujrah Model, mainly for unsecured cards, treats merchant payments and cash withdrawals as Qard Hasan, or interest-free loans. Customers must repay only the principal, while banks cannot charge interest or profit on the loan.
Banks may charge Category B Ujrah or service fees for card issuance, account management and payment-network services. Such fees cannot exceed the bank's actual direct costs, include any profit, or vary based on the outstanding loan, tenure or payment delay.

The Covered Card or Cash-Collateralised Card Model allows cards against cash deposits or other collateral. As transactions are settled from the cover, no Qard Hasan is created. Banks can therefore charge Category A service fees, which may include a profit element. Fees must be fixed according to the card type and cannot vary with the credit limit or deposit amount.

Banks must introduce automated Merchant Category Code (MCC) filtering to block Shariah-non-compliant transactions, including those involving alcohol, gambling, conventional insurance, pork processing and interest-based financial services.

The Shariah Supervisory Committee must approve the prohibited MCC list and monitor its implementation, with the system audited at least annually.

The guideline also sets rules for Late payment fee. A fixed fee may be imposed on a financially capable customer who fails to pay on time as a deterrent under Iltizam bi al-Tabarru'.

The fee cannot be treated as bank income and must be deposited into a separate Charity Account for approved charitable activities under the Shariah Supervisory Committee's supervision.

Bangladesh Bank Islamic Banking Regulation & Policy Department Director Anisur Rahman told The Business Standard that despite the popularity of Islamic banking, there had been no specific guideline for Shariah-compliant credit cards, limiting banks' ability to expand in the segment.

Former Islami Bank Bangladesh additional managing director Mohammad Jamal Uddin Mazumde welcomed the move, saying there had been no central guideline.

He said the bank already offers the Shariah-compliant 'Khidmah' credit card with good customer demand, but its Ujrah model allows only processing and service fees, while operating costs can be high.

The United States has exempted Bangladesh and 19 other countries and regions from a 100% tariff on certain specialised medicines, preserving the existing duty-free treatment of Bangladeshi pharmaceutical exports.

Although the exemption does not provide an additional benefit to Bangladesh's pharmaceutical sector, industry stakeholders said retaining the existing duty-free facility is positive for the country's drug exporters.

The US Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) published the list of eligible countries and regions in a notice on 23 September.

According to the BIS notice, the tariff exemption covers orphan medicines, nuclear medicines, plasma-derived therapies, fertility drugs, cell therapy products, gene therapy products, antibody-drug conjugates, medical countermeasures related to chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats, and animal health products.

Rabbur Reza, chief operating officer of Beximco Pharmaceuticals, told The Business Standard that generic medicines exported from Bangladesh to the US were already not subject to import duties.

"Generic companies had no duty, and there still is none. We are still not paying any import duty. Therefore, there is no change for us at this moment," he said.

The BIS notice also states that, at present, Section 232 pharmaceutical tariffs do not apply to generic pharmaceutical products and associated ingredients.

Reza said the continued absence of tariffs was nevertheless positive for the industry, given the importance of the US market to Bangladesh's pharmaceutical exporters.

"We export quite a few of our molecules to the United States, and the lion's share of our exports goes to the United States. We are the largest exporter from Bangladesh to the United States," he said.

"If exports of Bangladesh's pharma industry are to be increased, the United States is definitely a major destination. Therefore, this is good news for Bangladesh's pharmaceutical industry not just for now, but also for the future," he added.

The US special list also includes Argentina, Cambodia, Ecuador, El Salvador, the European Union, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, Japan, Jordan, Malaysia, North Macedonia, South Korea, Switzerland and Liechtenstein, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom and Vietnam.

The BIS said changes to the list of eligible jurisdictions may be published in a future notice.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman on Monday emphasised further expansion of bilateral trade, investment and development cooperation with China as its outgoing Ambassador Yao Wen paid a farewell call on him at his office.

Prime Minister’s Deputy Press Secretary Hasan Shiplu said the meeting discussed various issues of mutual interest, including the Rohingya crisis.

Yao Wen congratulated the prime minister on his successful participation in the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly and his various engagements in New York.

The Chinese ambassador said China’s support for Bangladesh’s development efforts would continue. He also expressed hope that relations between Bangladesh and China would be further strengthened.

State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir and Chairman of the Invest Bangladesh Authority Chowdhury Ashik Mahmud Bin Harun were present at the meeting.

The outgoing Chinese ambassador was accompanied by Deputy Chief of Mission Liu Yuyin.

IPDC Finance has received in-principle permission from Bangladesh Bank to launch an Islamic Shariah-based financing business through an Islamic Finance Wing, subject to meeting regulatory conditions.

According to a disclosure on Sunday, the company will take necessary measures to comply with the central bank’s requirements, including amending its Memorandum and Articles of Association and establishing an independent Shariah Supervisory Committee.

The company will also establish a separate Islamic Finance Division, segregate Islamic funds and implement prescribed policies, an operational manual and separate accounting arrangements, according to the disclosure.

Once it fulfils the stipulated conditions, IPDC Finance will apply to Bangladesh Bank for final approval to commence Islamic Shariah-based financing business.

The move will allow the non-bank financial institution to offer financing products based on Islamic Shariah principles alongside its existing conventional financing operations.

Bangladeshi citizens are subject to a specified limit on foreign currency spending when travelling abroad. But the amount spent on air tickets purchased by card will not count towards the travel quota, according to a Bangladesh Bank circular issued on Monday.

If a customer spends a certain amount from their card to purchase a ticket, the relevant bank may refill the same amount in foreign currency to the card after verifying the necessary documents and transaction, according to the circular.

Under Bangladesh Bank’s guidelines, Bangladeshi citizens can spend a maximum of $18,000 a year on overseas travel, while the limit was previously $12,000. But the cost of air tickets will remain outside the $18,000 limit.

Until now, proceeds from ticket sales could only be received locally through domestic banking channels. Under the new directive, however, foreign airlines operating in Bangladesh will also be allowed to receive and settle ticket-sale proceeds through their own international payment settlement arrangements outside Bangladesh. This facility will not apply to domestic airlines. Domestic airlines will continue to follow the existing local acquiring and settlement rules when selling tickets for travel from Bangladesh to any destination abroad.

Income of foreign airlines settled outside Bangladesh will be adjusted against the respective airlines’ remittable surplus income, and banks will have to submit regular reports through the module specified by Bangladesh Bank.

Bangladesh Bank said Bangladeshis would now be able to purchase tickets from foreign airlines more easily and at more competitive prices using international cards, adding that reducing complications related to international payments would also make airline operations more efficient.

The government is preparing separate export strategies for 18 key trading destinations as part of its export diversification drive.
The destinations are the United States, China, the United Kingdom, India, France, Russia, Malaysia, South Korea, Switzerland, Iran, Brazil, Türkiye, Japan, Canada, Belgium, Australia, New Zealand and Fiji.
Commerce Secretary Md Ataur Rahman Khan disclosed the plan at a workshop on export diversification at the commerce ministry’s conference room in the Secretariat in Dhaka yesterday, according to a ministry press statement.

The strategies aim to increase export earnings and reduce Bangladesh’s reliance on garments by diversifying both products and markets, the ministry said.
Equal emphasis is being given to both product and market diversification to make exports stronger and more sustainable, said Secretary Ataur.

Bangladesh already exports goods to most of the selected markets, but the volumes remain low. Exports to Russia and Iran, both of which are currently engaged in war, have fallen recently.

Currently, the European Union (EU), the US, the UK and Canada are the major export destinations for Bangladesh.
The ministry said it is analysing the market potential, existing barriers, positions of the competing countries and Bangladesh’s scope for expanding trade in these destinations to prepare separate market-specific export strategies.

Ataur said related information to that end has been collected from the country’s trade wings abroad.
Based on the data, a separate action plan will be drawn up for each country, he said.

The analysis follows a set matrix, which covers Bangladesh’s share of total imports in each country, its main competitors in specific products, ways to improve competitiveness, and the policy and institutional measures needed to expand markets, he added.

The exercise will help identify promising new products, expand the market for existing ones and determine the steps needed to enter new markets, the commerce secretary said.

Also speaking at the event, Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said services exports deserve equal weight alongside goods.

He called for effective steps to develop information technology, skills-based and capacity-building services, and to support freelancers.

Emphasising skills development and technological advancement, he said the use of technology in the production and service sectors must be increased to enhance Bangladesh’s competitiveness in international markets.

At the same time, he recommended strengthening initiatives to increase exports of Bangladeshi products and services to neighboring countries by leveraging geographical proximity and market potential.

Other participants called for making pharmaceuticals, electronics, agricultural and agro-processed goods, leather and leather goods, light engineering, information technology and other services more competitive in global markets, alongside garments.

India has revised anti-dumping duties on jute products imported from Bangladesh, with the highest rate set at $445 per tonne for jute yarn and twine produced by manufacturers not specifically listed in the new duty schedule.

The revised rates were notified by India's Ministry of Finance on 24 September following a mid-term review by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR). The measure covers jute yarn/twine, hessian fabric, jute sacking bags and jute sacking cloth.

The new duty structure varies by producer. Asha Jute Industries Ltd, for example, will face a duty of $59 per tonne on jute yarn/twine, while several Bangladeshi producers have been granted zero-duty treatment for specific products.

Six Bangladeshi producers – AM Jute Industries, Bonanza Jute Composite, Lovely Jute Mills, Nawhata Jute Mills, Poddar Agro Industries and Ranu Agro Industries – have been granted zero-duty treatment across the product categories covered by their exports. Natore Jute Mills and Janata Jute Mills have also received zero-duty treatment for jute sacking bags and hessian fabric.

For producers outside the specified list, the duty will be $445 per tonne on jute yarn/twine, $88 on hessian fabric and $283 on jute sacking bags. The notification also requires exporters seeking producer-specific rates to provide documentation identifying the manufacturer.

The review was initiated in June 2025 following applications from the Indian Jute Mills Association and the AP Mesta Twine Mills Association, which sought a reassessment of the existing anti-dumping duties on jute products from Bangladesh and Nepal. The DGTR sought information from 54 Bangladeshi mills, of which 38 responded.

The DGTR's final findings, issued on 25 June, recommended re-quantifying the duties for the remaining period of the existing measure.

According to the review, demand for jute products in India declined by 20% during the period under consideration, while imports from Bangladesh and Nepal fell by 13%. The DGTR said this resulted in foreign suppliers increasing their market share relative to Indian producers.

Bangladesh's jute goods exports to India fell 18% year-on-year to 1,17,000 tonnes in fiscal 2024-25, according to the review.

The revised notification replaces the earlier duty structure imposed on jute products from Bangladesh and Nepal and will apply for the remaining period of the existing anti-dumping measure.

Bangladesh's inflation-adjusted, or real, cigarette prices have declined across most price tiers despite nominal price hikes introduced in the FY2026-27 budget, according to an analysis presented by the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC).

The findings were presented at a media workshop on tobacco tax policy held at the PPRC office yesterday (28 September), where researchers, journalists and tobacco-control stakeholders discussed cigarette taxation, market trends, government revenue and public health implications.

Mohammad Ihtesham Hassan, senior research associate at PPRC, presented the analysis titled "Media Workshop on Tobacco Tax Policy: Lessons from FY2026–27 Budget, Market Trends, Policy Outcomes and Way Forward".
He said the four-tier cigarette pricing structure remained unchanged in the latest budget, while the minimum retail price of low-tier cigarettes was raised from Tk60 to Tk62 and later to Tk65. The minimum prices for medium-, high- and premium-tier cigarettes were set at Tk92, Tk160 and Tk210 respectively.

However, after adjusting for inflation, real cigarette prices had declined across most tiers by August 2026, PPRC's analysis showed.

The workshop also highlighted limitations of Bangladesh's current ad valorem tobacco tax system, under which increases in retail prices do not necessarily translate into proportional increases in government revenue.

Participants discussed the introduction of a specific excise component as a way to make tobacco tax revenue more predictable and responsive to market changes.

PPRC data also showed a significant shift in cigarette market shares. The low-tier segment's share fell from 77% in FY2021-22 to below 49% by May 2026, while the medium-tier segment increased from 9% to 42%.

The shift was partly attributed to brand reclassification following the January 2025 price revision, although the analysis suggested that changing consumer preferences may also have contributed.

The workshop further discussed a reported Tk3,000 crore year-on-year decline in cigarette VAT and supplementary duty revenue during July-August 2026.

PPRC cautioned that the figure should be treated as a provisional revenue gap, as the new quarterly VAT system may have affected the timing of revenue recording.

Speakers said tobacco tax policy should take into account inflation, changes in cigarette market dynamics and the government's revenue requirements, while preventing tobacco products from becoming increasingly affordable.

Md Mostafizur Rahman, former chairman of the Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC); Syed Ziauddin Ahmed, director of HR and Budget at PPRC; and Ataur Rahman, advocacy manager of Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids (CTFK)-Bangladesh, also spoke at the workshop.

QatarEnergy has extended force majeure notices and will not be able ‌to deliver liquefied natural gas cargoes to Italian utility Edison or some Asian clients as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Edison and trading sources said today (28 September).

Edison, one of the company's biggest customers in Europe, will not ​receive LNG cargoes until the beginning of December, the Italian group said on Monday, in ​the latest extension under a force majeure notification first issued in April following disruptions caused ⁠by the US-Iran war.
Clients in Asia, including in Bangladesh and Pakistan, were also informed that force ​majeure notices had been extended until November, two trading sources said.

QatarEnergy did not immediately respond to a ​request for comment.

Qatar is among the Iran conflict's biggest economic casualties, with its liquefied natural gas exports slashed by 96%, Reuters calculated at the end of August.

While neighbouring Gulf exporters have managed to ship oil secretly out of the ​Strait of Hormuz, Qatar had exported just 18 LNG cargoes until end-August, down from 509 in the ​same period last year, according to data intelligence firm ICIS.

Winter season will fuel competition for limited supply

With the winter ‌heating ⁠season starting within days, buyers in Europe will have to look elsewhere to refill gas storage inventories ahead of the coldest months of the year.

That will fuel competition with Asian clients for the limited available global supply, and keep gas prices elevated.

While Italy is confident it will meet the European Union's ​target for its gas ​buffer, several countries, including ⁠Germany, are rushing to fill their storage tanks.

In a message on an Italian energy markets platform, Edison said QatarEnergy would cancel a further six LNG ​cargoes, taking the total undelivered shipments to 35.

The Italian subsidiary of France's ​EDF has replaced ⁠23 cargoes so far, turning mainly to US suppliers to make up for missing deliveries from the Gulf.

Edison holds a long-term contract with QatarEnergy for the supply of 6.4 billion cubic metres of natural gas ⁠per year ​to Italy, around 10% of the country's total consumption.

The contract, ​which has been in force since 2009, has a total duration of 25 years.

The capital market extended its losing streak for a third consecutive session today (28 September) as investor sentiment remained cautious amid ongoing fiscal year-end earnings and dividend announcements from June-closing companies.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange edged down by 6 points to close at 5,525, bringing cumulative losses over the past three sessions to 71 points.

The blue-chip DS30 index also slipped 1 point to settle at 2,097.
Market breadth favoured the bears, with 224 issues declining against 125 advances and 45 remaining unchanged, while daily turnover posted a modest 3% rise to reach Tk746 crore.

According to Sheltech Brokerage Limited, market movement was characterised by a sharp tug-of-war between selling pressure and bargain hunting. The index initially gained momentum to touch an intraday high of 5,561 points before profit-booking set in. Mid-session recovery attempts lacked conviction, and late-session selling dragged the benchmark index down to an intraday low of 5,525 points, near which it closed.

Sector-wise, Textile generated the highest turnover at 27.2%, followed by General Insurance at 22.8% and Pharmaceuticals at 10.1%.

Most sectors posted losses, led by Mutual Funds, which fell 2.5%, Paper, down 1.6%, and Tannery, dropping 1.0%.

Conversely, Life Insurance and General Insurance bucked the trend, gaining 1.8% and 1.1% respectively.

Apex Spinning emerged as the most-traded stock, alongside Saiham Textile, Mercantile Insurance, IPDC Finance, and Envoy Textiles.

Chartered Life Insurance and Saiham Textile topped the gainers' chart, both surging 7.28%, followed by Apex Spinning, Evince Textile, and Trust Islami Life Insurance.

On the flip side, First Prime Finance Mutual Fund led the losers' list with an 8.74% drop, followed by LR Global Mutual Fund One, BD Thai Food, Green Delta Mutual Fund, and Exim Bank First Mutual Fund.

At the Chittagong Stock Exchange, the selective CSCX index inched up to close at 9,057, while the all-share price index, CASPI, dropped 5 points to 14,777. Turnover at the port city bourse fell sharply by 73% to Tk10.73 crore.

LPG operators today (28 September) assured Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood Tuku that there is no shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in the country's market.

They gave the assurance while presenting and reviewing the LPG sector's overall situation at a meeting organised by the ministry's Energy and Mineral Resources Division, according to a press release.

The meeting, chaired by the minister, reviewed the country's current LPG imports, stock and supply situation, market prices, and related issues.

According to data provided by a source at the National Board of Revenue (NBR), Bangladesh imported 157,760 tonnes of LPG in August and 118,742 tonnes between 1 and 22 September.

The data presented at the meeting showed that LPG supply and stock levels in the country are currently satisfactory.

The energy minister urged all concerned to ensure that consumers do not face supply shortages despite adequate stocks.

He also warned against hoarding LPG for illegal purposes and creating public hardship.

The operators assured the minister of their full cooperation in this regard.

The minister also heard about various difficulties faced by operators in running their businesses and instructed the Energy and Mineral Resources Division to take steps to resolve them quickly.

Gold fell 3 percent on Monday to touch its lowest in more than seven weeks, as higher oil prices stoked inflation fears, bolstering the case for elevated interest rates.

Spot gold was down 3 percent at $4,156.45 per ounce, as of 0814 GMT, hitting its lowest since August 5.

US gold futures for December delivery fell 3.1 percent to $4,188.80.

The dollar held firm, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies, while US Treasury yields extended gains.

“Higher oil prices and the increased probability of further US rate hikes being priced in by market participants are the main drivers behind gold’s recent weakness,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

“This backdrop could keep US real yields and the US dollar elevated, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and contributing to further near-term volatility in the precious metal.”

Brent crude oil rebounded after US President Donald Trump rejected a peace deal from Iran to resolve their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping tensions in the Middle East elevated.

Rising energy costs tend to drive inflation higher by lifting prices across the economy.

Traders see a 70.3 percent chance of a Fed rate hike in October, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed.

The US central bank earlier this month lifted rates by a quarter percentage point and indicated that additional increases are likely.

On Friday, Cleveland Fed chief Beth Hammack said she is concerned that persistently high inflation risks could condition the American public to accept elevated prices as the norm, adding the central bank cannot let that happen.

Focus is now on a series of US economic releases scheduled for this week, including job openings, the ADP employment report, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) readings and nonfarm payrolls.

The government is facing pressure to finance the budget at the start of the current fiscal year. Against a record budget of BDT 9.38 trillion, the government has set an ambitious revenue collection target of nearly BDT 7 trillion. Revenue is falling short of expectations amid sluggish economic activity. Pressure is also mounting on the balance of payments. Rising fuel import costs and subsidies, higher salaries and allowances for government employees, and the government’s financing obligations for major projects are also increasing expenditure. Budget financing has consequently come under strain in the first quarter of the fiscal year.

The agency collected BDT 518.92 billion in revenue in the first two months of the current fiscal year, July and August, against a target of BDT 810.53 billion for the period, according to data from the National Board of Revenue (NBR). The shortfall was therefore around BDT 291.61 billion. More concerningly, the collection was not only below the target but also lower than the BDT 547.68 billion collected during the same period of the 2025-26 fiscal year, meaning revenue collection has already entered negative territory at the beginning of the fiscal year.

The government has set a revenue collection target of BDT 6.95 trillion for the current fiscal year. Of this, the NBR’s target has been set at BDT 6.04 trillion. The NBR has not yet officially released the revenue collection figures for the first two months of the current fiscal year.

Former National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Dr Nasiruddin Ahmed told Bonik Barta, “Revenue collection is directly linked to economic activity. If people’s incomes increase, income tax will rise; if business profits increase, corporate tax will rise; and if imports increase, customs and other revenues will rise. The more dynamic the economy and business and trade become, the greater the scope for revenue collection. Much will depend on how much support the government provides to businesses and trade in the coming days and how it addresses global challenges.”

Stagnation in private-sector lending and investment is also putting pressure on the budget financing situation. Business and trade activity has slowed due to high interest rates, the energy crisis and weak market demand. This is affecting industrial production, employment and business profits. As the economy loses momentum, the government’s tax base is also shrinking. Private-sector credit growth is currently at its lowest level, and it has remained below 5 percent for five consecutive months. Experts believe that if this trend continues, the government will not be able to collect revenue from business, trade and industry at the desired rate, increasing its reliance on borrowing to meet expenditure.

The investment picture in the public sector is also not encouraging. As a large share of the budget is being spent on the operating side, expenditure on development has fallen behind. In the outgoing 2025–26 fiscal year, only BDT 1.41 trillion was spent against an allocation of around BDT 2.09 trillion under the Annual Development Programme (ADP), or 67.52 percent of the total allocation, the lowest implementation rate in 50 years. The downward trend has continued into the current fiscal year. ADP implementation stood at only 1.85 percent in July and August combined. Revenue expenditure is consequently increasing while implementation of capital expenditure is falling behind.

Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI), told Bonik Barta, “Private-sector credit flows have been declining steadily, while government spending has been relatively high. ADP implementation was also at its lowest level last year. There has been no significant positive change in the first two months of the current fiscal year either. Investment in both the public and private sectors is consequently declining. This is affecting economic growth and revenue collection.”

The business leader also said: “Many small, cottage and micro businesses in rural areas are shutting down due to high interest rates and the energy crisis. Large industries are also under pressure. When businesses shut down, it doesn’t only reduce production; employment and people’s incomes also decline. This affects government revenue as well. New investment is also falling due to high inflation, electricity and energy costs, and high interest rates on bank loans. Many industrial establishments are unable to operate at full capacity as market demand has declined. It’ll be difficult to increase revenue unless the economy regains momentum.”

The energy sector is one of the major sources of expenditure pressure. Geopolitical tensions arising from the conflict between Iran and the United States in the Middle East have disrupted energy supplies and triggered an abnormal rise in prices. The government has consequently had to spend more on fuel imports. The government claims that the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) incurred losses of BDT 228.75 billion over the past six and a half months since it took office. During this period, spot-market LNG prices tripled.

In the first two and a half months of the current fiscal year, the government has had to provide BDT 103 billion in subsidies for the LNG sector. The allocation for LNG subsidies for the entire fiscal year, however, was BDT 60 billion. If current prices persist, LNG import costs could exceed BDT 900 billion in the current fiscal year. Losses in the power sector could also reach BDT 600 billion. The government is already trying to manage the additional costs by raising electricity and energy prices.

Analysts, however, say higher energy and electricity prices will push up the prices of goods and services, further fuelling inflation. This will increase pressure on consumers while reducing household consumption expenditure, potentially prolonging the slowdown in the economy.

Alongside higher expenditure in the energy and power sectors, increased salaries and allowances for government employees are also creating fresh pressure on government spending. Although the government has decided to pay the increased salaries and allowances in several phases, the financial burden will begin in the current fiscal year. Once the full increase is implemented, government expenditure will rise by more than BDT 1 trillion. The government will also have to incur additional expenditure on the basic salaries of employees of state-owned entities and institutions, as well as teachers and staff under the Monthly Pay Order (MPO) scheme.

Export growth has also been declining amid stagnation in the industrial sector and the energy crisis. Import costs, in contrast, are rising due to higher prices of energy and consumer goods in the global market. Import expenditure on services has also increased along the same lines. This trend of expenditure rising faster than foreign currency earnings is having an adverse impact on the country’s balance of payments (BoP).

Bangladesh exported goods worth $4.42 billion in July of the 2025–26 fiscal year, according to central bank data, while the figure fell to $4.35 billion in the same month of the 2026–27 fiscal year, meaning exports declined by 1.6 percent year-on-year.

Meanwhile, goods worth $6.44 billion were imported in July of the current fiscal year, compared with imports worth $5.93 billion in the same month of the previous fiscal year, reflecting an increase in import expenditure by 8.6 percent. If this divergent trend of falling export earnings and rising import expenditure persists, the BoP deficit could widen further by the end of the fiscal year, while the country’s foreign exchange reserves could also come under pressure.

These additional expenditure pressures are compounded by the government’s obligations to repay various loans taken by the previous government. In the first two months of the current 2026–27 fiscal year, July and August, the government repaid more than twice as much in foreign loans as it received in disbursements of foreign assistance. Foreign loan disbursements during the two months amounted to $294.56 million, while the government had to repay $698.9 million. The amount of debt repayment will increase further by the end of the fiscal year. A substantial amount will also have to be paid in interest on these loans during the same period.

To meet the budget deficit, the government borrowed nearly BDT 200 billion from domestic sources in July, the first month of the fiscal year, according to central bank data. The government’s demand for such borrowing increased further in August and the current month, according to sources. The figures, however, have not yet been released.

To increase revenue collection, the NBR is taking various measures, including resolving revenue disputes pending in court. But it remains uncertain how quickly and to what extent these measures will generate additional revenue. At the same time, unless new investment and business expansion take place in the economy, there will be limited scope to strengthen the base of regular revenue collection.

Dr Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, told Bonik Barta, “Various signs indicate that the government is facing a financial crunch at the very beginning of the fiscal year. Although raising fuel and electricity prices may help ease the expenditure pressure to some extent, the overall pressure isn’t declining. The government will have to spend additional funds on higher salaries for government employees, as well as salaries and allowances for employees of state-owned institutions and agencies and MPO-listed teachers. The government’s funding obligations for major projects will also add to this. As expenditure is rising, the sources of financing are still unclear.”

He said the expenditure pressure has not arisen solely from conditions in international markets; policy decisions taken by the government are also a major factor. “The big question now is how the government will finance the major spending commitments already made. It won’t be possible to manage this pressure simply by raising taxes or cutting development expenditure. The situation will have to be managed by coordinating all sources, including domestic and foreign borrowing, revenue collection and expenditure rationalisation.”

He further said, “Although the government is considering raising funds by issuing bonds in international markets, the cost won’t be low given current global interest rates. Bond financing will also create repayment pressure when the bonds mature. So if spending decisions are made in anticipation of receiving funds, the government’s financial pressure could increase further in the future.”

The government is increasingly likely to rely on borrowing to finance the budget deficit. If it borrows more from domestic sources, demand for government borrowing in the banking sector will increase, potentially putting pressure on private-sector access to credit. There will also be a risk of higher interest rates. Consequently, efforts to address the budget financing shortfall could further constrain private investment.

Alongside conventional foreign lenders such as the World Bank, IMF and ADB, the government is also considering raising funds by issuing bonds in international markets. But the country’s macroeconomic conditions pose a risk of higher bond yields, creating doubts over whether raising funds through bonds at high interest rates would be financially beneficial in the long run.

Mohammad Muslim Chowdhury, former finance secretary and former comptroller and auditor general (CAG), told Bonik Barta, “A form of macroeconomic imbalance is emerging within the budget deficit target itself. Even after fuel prices have been increased, the pressure from subsidies remains. Revenue collection is also weakening as private-sector credit and investment decline. Despite increasing revenue expenditure, capital expenditure has yet to reach the desired level. Consequently, there’s a risk that the deficit will exceed the target.”

He added: “If the government relies more heavily on domestic borrowing, access to credit for the private sector could shrink and interest rates could rise. If spending approvals continue without restoring the balance between revenue and expenditure, additional risks could emerge in the future for both the value of the currency and the country’s international credit rating.”

China and the United States have agreed to cut tariffs imposed on $60 billion worth of goods ‌imported from each other, on an array of products ranging from US corn to cosmetics, and from Chinese household appliances to toys.

Under the US-China Board of Trade, both countries have each recommended $30 billion of trade in non-sensitive goods for more favourable tariff treatment, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement on Sunday.

For the United States, that was “unlocking improved market access” for about 30 percent ​of US exports to China, he said.

The reciprocal tariff reduction as well as an extension of a trade truce were among the key takeaways from the ​second summit this year between President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, hosted in Washington last week.

One of two lists from ⁠the White House showed that China planned to trim duties on a variety of US agricultural goods, including corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy, vegetable oils and meals. It ​did not include soybeans.

Beijing will also look to reduce levies on US fish and seafood, logs and wood products, cosmetics and medical devices.

In another list were Washington’s reciprocal tariff ​cuts for Chinese small appliances such as coffee makers and toasters, tableware, blankets and bed linens.

The lists also included toys, fireworks, artificial flowers, Christmas tree lamps and other holiday decorations, and children’s car seats.

LONGER TRADE TRUCE

China’s commerce ministry said on Monday a two-month extension of a trade truce with the United States through to January 10 would provide room for both sides to evaluate their ​ongoing arrangement to resolve economic and trade issues, while considering how to advance on those fronts.

The extension also provides a “relatively stable and predictable policy environment” for cooperation ​among companies and continued active discussions.

Both sides will hold regular talks on potential investment opportunities and barriers, enhancing policy transparency and predictability, and responding to enterprises’ concerns, the ministry said.

Stocks fell ‌sharply in ⁠China on Monday, with investors having few concrete details to cheer from the leaders’ summit and underlying tensions resurfacing. Technology stocks fell on a bipartisan US push to ban Chinese components from data centres and the benchmark blue-chip index slid more than 2 percent to a one-year low.

AGRICULTURE AND COAL

China’s choice of products for tariff cuts looks designed to help Beijing meet what the White House says is a $17-billion commitment to buy agricultural goods. China has already resumed large-scale buying of US soybeans under a deal ​struck last year to buy 25 million ​metric tons annually.

Both countries will set ⁠up an agriculture working group under a trade council, which will hold its first meeting before the year ends to discuss two-way market access and regulation, the commerce ministry said.

The presidential summit also yielded an agreement for China to import 10 million ​metric tons of coal annually from the United States in 2027 and 2028, the White House release showed. That amount ​roughly equals 2 percent of ⁠China’s coal imports each year.

Liquefied natural gas and oil were not on the list.

“Importing US coal is not only a beneficial supplement to China’s domestic coal market, but also brings stable economic income and employment to the US coal industry,” the Chinese ministry said.

AI, FINANCIAL FIRMS AND DIRECT FLIGHTS

On artificial intelligence, both sides have agreed on a communication channel ⁠for incidents ​and will hold a follow-up dialogue by the end of November.

China will also examine and approve foreign ​financial services institutions, including those with US capital, to conduct business and open branches in China.

There will also be continued communication on increasing flights between China and the United States, the ministry statement said.