The government has approved the purchase of nine liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from Trafigura between December 2026 and December 2027 subject to mutually agreed upward or downward adjustments, while rejecting a separate proposal for a Tk13,161 crore floating LNG terminal at Kutubjom in Cox's Bazar.

At separate meetings yesterday (13 October), the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs also recommended in-principle approval for LNG procurement from five international suppliers to ensure uninterrupted gas supplies.

The proposals cover direct purchases from BP Singapore Pte Limited, Sahara Energy Resource Limited and Shell International Trading Middle East Limited FZE, alongside G2G procurement from Cheniere Marketing International LLP and Trafigura Pte Ltd. The proposals did not specify volumes, contract values or delivery schedules.

Separately, the Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase (CCGP) declined to approve a proposal to establish a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) at Kutubjom in Maheshkhali under a G2G arrangement. The Energy and Mineral Resources Division later withdrew the proposal, according to a Cabinet Division press release.

Proposed by China National Energy Engineering and Construction Company, the terminal was estimated to cost Tk12,324 crore over 15 years or Tk13,161 crore over 20 years.

Scheduled for completion by 2028, it would have added 600 million cubic feet per day of regasified LNG to the national grid amid declining domestic gas production and technical problems at existing terminals. The committee had granted in-principle approval on 28 July.

The CCGP also approved fertiliser imports worth around Tk1,466 crore from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and Canada, covering urea, muriate of potash (MOP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP).

The approved purchases include 82,000 tonnes of urea from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, 115,000 tonnes of MOP from Russia and Canada, and 40,000 tonnes of DAP from Saudi Arabia.

The committee also recommended awarding Meghna Sugar Refinery Ltd contracts to supply 10,000 tonnes of sugar for Tk103.45 crore through open tender.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury chaired the CCGP meeting.

US inflation rose faster than expected in the 12 months to September, according to official data, in the final major inflation report before next month's midterm elections.

The annual inflation rate climbed to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in the year to August, driven largely by rising gasoline prices amid disruptions to energy supplies in the Middle East linked to the US-Israel conflict with Iran, reports BBC.

The cost of living has emerged as a major issue in the US midterm elections, putting renewed focus on the pace of price increases and their impact on households.

What is inflation?

Inflation measures how quickly the prices of goods and services rise over time.

For example, if a bottle of milk costs $1 and its price increases to $1.10 after a year, the annual inflation rate for that product is 10%.

In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks inflation using the consumer price index (CPI). The index measures price changes across a wide range of everyday goods and services, including food, gasoline and medical care, to assess overall price movements in the economy.

The BLS periodically updates the basket of goods and services used in its calculations to reflect changes in consumers' spending patterns and lifestyles.

What causes inflation?

Inflation can rise for several reasons, including stronger demand, limited supply and higher production costs.

When demand for a product exceeds the available supply, sellers may increase prices. The popularity of Labubu dolls in recent years, which pushed up resale prices, is one example.

Rising incomes can also increase consumer spending, potentially putting upward pressure on prices.

Supply disruptions can have a similar effect. When the availability of a product falls but demand remains steady, prices tend to rise. Crude oil is one example, as it is a key raw material used to produce gasoline and diesel.

Before the US-Israel conflict with Iran began, crude oil was trading at just over $70 a barrel. Disruptions to supplies during the conflict pushed prices sharply higher, with oil currently trading above $100 a barrel, according to the supplied BBC report.

What is the current rate of inflation?

US inflation reached 3.7% in the year to September, exceeding expectations as gasoline prices surged.

Fuel prices rose 34.2% over the 12-month period and increased by 9.1% in September alone. The monthly rise accounted for more than half of the overall increase in inflation, according to the BLS.

Energy inflation climbed 20.4% over the year, reflecting higher prices for fuel oil, energy services and electricity. Fuel oil, which is commonly used for home heating, recorded a 74.2% annual increase.

Economists will be watching whether higher energy costs spread to other parts of the economy, particularly food prices, and push inflation further upwards. The US Federal Reserve will also monitor these developments as it considers interest-rate policy.

Food inflation remained relatively subdued, with prices unchanged in September and up 2.5% over the year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, stood at 2.6%.

Will the inflation hike change Social Security payments?

Following the inflation report, the Social Security Administration announced a 3.6% increase in Social Security benefits for 2027, covering programmes including retirement, survivors and disability insurance.

The adjustment is expected to raise the average monthly retirement benefit by $75.

The cost-of-living adjustment will take effect in January for around 72 million people. Higher payments for the 7.2 million people receiving Supplemental Security Income are due to begin on 31 December.

How have tariffs affected inflation?

Since returning to office for a second term, US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on imports from trading partners around the world.

After the Supreme Court struck down most of the additional global tariffs in February, Trump announced a new 10% global tariff to replace them.

Trump has argued that tariffs would increase government revenue, encourage domestic manufacturing and persuade consumers to buy American-made products. However, the additional import taxes have also contributed to higher prices, according to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Tariffs are taxes on imported goods that are generally paid by importing businesses. Unless overseas suppliers cut their prices to absorb some of the additional cost, US companies face higher expenses that can be passed on to consumers.

The New York Fed found that foreign exporters reduced their prices only marginally in response to the new tariffs, leaving US businesses to bear nearly 90% of the additional tax burden.

Tariffs can also increase the cost of domestically manufactured products when US producers rely on imported components or raw materials.

The research found that each percentage-point increase in average tariffs led to an almost 0.25% rise in consumer goods prices after one year.

Has inflation been worse lately?

Although the current inflation rate remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, it is well below the levels recorded in recent years.

Inflation accelerated during the Covid-19 pandemic as supply-chain disruptions and other pressures pushed up costs.

Energy prices climbed further in early 2022 after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sending oil prices above $100 a barrel.

Together, these pressures helped drive US inflation to a peak of about 9%.

Can inflation ever go down?

A slowdown in inflation does not necessarily mean prices are falling. It means prices are increasing at a slower pace.

For example, if inflation drops from 5% to 3%, goods and services are generally still becoming more expensive, but at a slower rate than before.

Moderate inflation is widely considered compatible with a healthy economy. The Federal Reserve's 2% target reflects its aim of maintaining relatively stable prices while supporting economic activity.

If inflation falls too low, consumers may postpone purchases in anticipation of further price declines. Weaker demand can then prompt businesses to cut wages or reduce their workforce, potentially slowing economic growth.

Factory owners, trade union leaders and economists yesterday called for a review of garment workers’ wages to reflect the rising cost of living.

They made the call at a seminar organised by the Garment Workers’ Trade Union Center (GWTUC) at the Jatiya Press Club in Dhaka.
In a statement presented at the seminar, the GWTUC said the latest minimum wage for garment workers was fixed in 2023 and took effect on December 1 that year.The minimum monthly wage was raised from Tk 8,000 to Tk 12,500, but the increase was only half of what workers had demanded, the statement said. Since then, the cost of living has continued to rise, while the minimum wage has remained unchanged.

The statement estimated that goods and services that cost Tk 8,000 in 2018 would now require Tk 14,500 to Tk 15,000 to buy.

Despite nominal wage increases, workers’ purchasing power has therefore declined, it said.

Workers’ incomes are insufficient to cover essential expenses such as food, rent, healthcare, education and transport, according to the statement. Many are forced to work excessive overtime but still struggle to maintain a basic standard of living for their families.

It said wage determination should take into account the actual cost of living, inflation, productivity and the equitable distribution of wealth generated by the industry.

Mujahidul Islam Selim, former president of the Communist Party of Bangladesh, said workers’ interests and the garment industry’s interests were not contradictory.

Fair wages, better working conditions, skills development and investment in technology could strengthen the industry’s long-term competitiveness, he said.

Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said employers supported the formation of a wage board, but the timing of its formation was for the government to decide.

He said the BGMEA’s current leadership would not interfere in the selection of workers’ representatives to the board.

Employers would also need time to implement a new wage structure, he added.

Khondaker Golam Moazzem, president of Knowledge Hub Institute Trust, said garment workers had already taken to the streets demanding higher wages.

Although the minimum monthly wage for the lowest grade is Tk 12,500, workers in a lower grade are paid Tk 9,875, he said.

Moazzem urged workers to remain united, select their own representatives to the wage board and announce their choices publicly.

He also called for garment workers’ wages to reflect the industry’s productivity.

GWTUC President Montu Ghosh chaired the seminar.

Bangladesh and Bhutan have discussed strengthening bilateral trade and cooperation, alongside issues related to the SAARCFINANCE working group, during a meeting between their central bank governors on the sidelines of the ongoing 2026 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group here.

Governor Yangchen Tshogyel of the Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan (RMA) paid a courtesy call on Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman today to exchange views on matters of mutual interest, according to a Bangladesh Bank press release issued today.

The meeting focused on issues related to the SAARCFINANCE working group, as well as bilateral trade and cooperation between Bangladesh and Bhutan.

Bangladesh Bank Deputy Governor Dr Md Habibur Rahman and RMA Deputy Governor Ms Uygen Choden were also present at the meeting.

Both sides considered the meeting successful.

SAARCFINANCE is a network of central bank governors and finance secretaries of the SAARC member states that provides a platform for regional cooperation on monetary and financial issues.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has formed a seven-member interim board to oversee the Capital Market Stabilisation Fund (CMSF), ending a 26-month leadership vacuum as the regulator moves to replace the fund's existing rules-based framework with a dedicated law.

Established in 2021 with undistributed dividends and other unclaimed investor assets, the CMSF holds around Tk1,700 crore, including Tk900 crore in cash and Tk800 crore in stocks.
The fund had been operating without a board since the previous board's tenure expired in 2024.

In a directive, the BSEC said the interim Board of Governors would ensure uninterrupted operations until the proposed Capital Market Stabilisation Fund Act, 2026, receives final approval. It instructed the fund to complete the necessary formalities while complying with all applicable laws, rules, regulations and directives.

BSEC Chairman Masud Khan will lead the board. Other members are BSEC Commissioner Hossain Sadat; an additional secretary from the Financial Institutions Division, subject to ministry nomination; Institute of Chartered Accountants of Bangladesh President Sabbir Ahmed; Bangladesh Association of Publicly Listed Companies President Riad Mahmud; Dhaka Stock Exchange Managing Director Nuzhat Anwar; and the CMSF chief executive officer, who will serve as member secretary.

CMSF Act to establish legal basis

The regulator is pursuing a dedicated law to strengthen the fund's legal standing following concerns raised by Bangladesh Bank over the legal basis for receiving unclaimed investor dividends.

A joint committee of Finance Ministry officials and the BSEC was formed to address the issue. Sources said the committee initially recommended winding up the fund and transferring its assets to the government exchequer, but the regulator maintained that the money should be used exclusively for investors. The decision was subsequently made to replace the rules-based framework with a statutory act.

After stakeholder feedback, officials expect the draft law to be placed before parliament for approval.

Draft law expands fund's mandate

Under the draft law, the fund's resources would include undistributed dividends and rights shares, unallotted initial public offering (IPO) and qualified investor offering (QIO) subscription money, undistributed assets of delisted companies, investment returns, government and institutional grants, and other approved sources.

The CMSF would act as custodian of these assets and settle eligible claims for dividends, rights shares, bonus shares, IPO subscription money and undistributed assets of delisted companies.

Claims would remain valid indefinitely until settled. Lawful heirs could also claim assets by following the prescribed procedures, subject to verification.

The draft would establish a centralised framework for dividend distribution and tax deducted at source (TDS) management. It would also allow the fund to finance investor education and awareness programmes, institutional capacity building, research and training.

Existing rules govern fund investments

The CMSF was established under the BSEC's Capital Market Stabilisation Fund Rules, 2021, to hold undistributed cash and stock dividends, unrefunded public subscription money and unallotted rights shares from listed issuers. Investors can claim eligible cash and shares indefinitely.

Under the existing rules, up to 40% of the fund's cash balance may be used to buy and sell listed securities. At least 50% must be used to provide refinancing loans to market intermediaries for margin lending, while up to 10% may be invested in fixed deposits, government and fixed-income securities, mutual funds and other permitted instruments.

Bangladesh’s economy has found some breathing space in its foreign currency flows, but the relief has yet to reach the factories, businesses and investment decisions that drive growth.

Instead, three key indicators are flashing warning signs: imports of industrial machinery are falling, private-sector credit growth remains below 5 per cent, and government development spending has slowed to a crawl.

Together, they paint a picture of an economy struggling to turn greater external stability into productive activity.

Business leaders blame high borrowing costs, energy shortages, concerns over law and order, and uncertainty over whether new investments will generate adequate returns.

Economists warn that if the slowdown persists, it could constrain industrial output, job creation and the growth of people’s purchasing power.

After a year and a half of turbulence under the interim government, the arrival of a new political administration in February had raised hopes of a more favourable investment climate.

Nearly eight months into its tenure, however, those expectations have yet to translate into a meaningful revival.

Machinery Imports Tell a Troubling Story

Bangladesh imported $506.9 million worth of capital machinery in July and August, the first two months of the 2026-27 fiscal year, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

That was down 32.5 per cent from $750.7 million in the same period a year earlier.

The decline came even as overall merchandise imports increased. Import expenditure rose by around 12.1 per cent year-on-year to $12.2 billion during the two months.

The contrast suggests that businesses are spending more on imports overall but pulling back on machinery needed to establish, expand or modernise factories.

Imports of other industrial capital goods also fell, dropping 12.5 per cent to $1.1 billion from $1.25 billion a year earlier. Combined spending on industrial capital goods was $1.6 billion, down about 20 per cent from nearly $2.01 billion.

For the full 2025-26 fiscal year, capital machinery imports reached $3.21 billion, up 4.93 per cent from $3.06 billion the previous year.

But the longer-term picture remains uneven. Imports peaked at $5.15 billion in 2018-19 before falling and fluctuating in subsequent years.

The figures matter because machinery purchases often signal whether businesses are preparing to increase production capacity or build new facilities. Their retreat points to weakening appetite for fresh investment.

Businesses Struggle to See a Return

For entrepreneurs, the central question is no longer simply whether they can invest, but whether they can expect a return in an uncertain business environment.

Anwar-Ul-Alam Chowdhury Parvez, president of the Bangladesh Chamber and a former president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said the conditions for new investment remained deeply unfavourable.

“How can there be new investment? Who will invest? Who can guarantee that an investment will bring returns? For many, even keeping their existing businesses afloat has become difficult,” he told bdnews24.com.

Problems continue to accumulate, he said, despite the arrival of a new government.

“One problem after another keeps cropping up. A new government has come in, and we thought everything would now run smoothly. Sadly, the situation has not improved. Many are disappointed.

“Law and order have not improved. Taken together, an investment-friendly environment has yet to return to the country, and interest rates are high. I do not know when a normal, favourable environment will return.”

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), also described a punishing climate for business.

“Business and investment are currently going through an extremely adverse situation. Entrepreneurs are fighting to survive in the market. Then came the energy crisis. These are major blows to business.

“Who would dare think of expanding a business in such circumstances? They say lending has grown by nearly 5 per cent, but I do not know how that growth came about or who the borrowers are. Will they be able to repay their loans? I have serious doubts about that.”

Private Credit Remains below 5 per cent

Private-sector credit growth, another key indicator of investment appetite, stood at 4.75 per cent at the end of August, up slightly from 4.62 per cent in July, Bangladesh Bank data show.

It had fallen to 4.47 per cent in June, the lowest level recorded at the time, after standing at 4.98 per cent in May. Despite small monthly fluctuations, growth has remained below 5 per cent.

Weak credit growth can indicate limited demand for loans to finance new investment or business expansion. But lending also depends on banks’ capacity to provide credit, the quality of borrowers and demand across the wider economy.

In May, Bangladesh Bank Governor Mostaqur Rahman announced a special Tk 600 billion lending package to revive closed and struggling factories and stimulate economic activity.

Initiatives have been taken to implement the scheme across several sectors, but the anticipated acceleration in lending has yet to materialise.

The central bank had expected private-sector credit growth to approach 5.5 per cent by June 2026. It later set a target of 6.8 per cent by December under its next six-month monetary policy.

Shamsul Arefin, managing director of NCC Bank, said global uncertainty was also weighing on demand.

“The global economy is still facing a degree of uncertainty because of geopolitical tensions. Its effects are being felt in our economy, too. Credit growth is unlikely to be very strong at a time like this.”

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director of Mutual Trust Bank, said the outlook could improve as the elected government settles into office. But demand remains decisive.

“There are many reasons for a decline in lending. The biggest is whether there is demand in the economy,” he said.

“Entrepreneurs will borrow only when they are confident they can use the money in a secure environment. They have to pay interest as soon as they borrow. Now that a political government has come to power and some time has passed, demand may begin to rise.”

Public Development Spending Slows

The government’s own investment drive is also lagging. In July and August, ministries and divisions spent Tk 57.1 billion under the Annual Development Programme (ADP), equivalent to just 1.85 per cent of the total allocation, according to the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED).

Implementation stood at 2.39 per cent in the same period a year earlier, when spending reached Tk 57.15 billion. In the first two months of 2024-25, the rate was 2.57 per cent, with expenditure of Tk 71.43 billion.

The slowdown in public development spending adds to the weakness in private investment, limiting another potential source of economic momentum.

World Bank Cuts Growth Forecast

The investment malaise has prompted concern over Bangladesh’s growth prospects. In its latest report on the country, published on Oct 6, the World Bank forecast GDP growth of 3.4 per cent for the 2026-27 fiscal year, down from its April projection of 4.6 per cent.Buy Maps

The lender cited energy-sector constraints, weaknesses in the financial system, revenue shortfalls and global uncertainty as factors weighing on investment and economic activity.

Investment has weakened, export growth has slowed, and high inflation has eroded purchasing power while increasing business costs.

The World Bank expects growth to recover to 3.9 per cent in 2027-28, but says improved energy supplies and faster reforms will be necessary. If its current forecast holds, growth would be lower than the 3.45 per cent recorded during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Currency Pressure Eases, but Costs Remain High

Bangladesh’s foreign currency strain intensified after Russia’s military advancement into Ukraine in February 2022 drove up global food and energy prices, increasing import costs. The country introduced import restrictions to contain pressure on the dollar.

Remittance and export earnings later improved foreign currency inflows, easing some of that pressure. But stronger inflows have not produced a corresponding revival in private investment.

Inflation continues to complicate the outlook. Overall inflation rose to 8.34 per cent in September 2026, from 8.26 per cent in August, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

Food inflation increased to 7.22 per cent, while non-food inflation edged down to 9.30 per cent.

Businesses remain concerned about gas and electricity supplies, alongside high interest rates, energy costs and broader production expenses. These pressures make long-term investment decisions harder to justify.

Challenge of Turning the Economy around

The combined signals from machinery imports, private credit and public spending point to a persistent weakness in investment. When businesses build factories or expand existing facilities, they can increase production capacity and create jobs. A prolonged investment slump threatens to slow both.

Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, said the lender’s latest assessment reflected familiar problems in Bangladesh’s economy. The government’s response would now be crucial.

Agreeing with the forecast of 3.4 per cent growth this fiscal year, he said: “There does not seem to be much prospect of the economy turning around. Although growth is forecast to reach 3.9 per cent in the next fiscal year, there is no guarantee that it will be achieved.”

He also considered the report’s findings on rising poverty, shrinking investment, exports, private-sector lending, women’s participation in the labour market and declining industrial output to be realistic.

One pressing concern is the potential inflationary impact of higher energy prices and recent public-sector pay rises.

“Based on past experience, I have calculated that the recent increase in electricity prices could add 1 to 2 per cent to food inflation, while the rise in diesel prices could increase non-food inflation by 1 to 1.5 per cent,” he said.

Zahid argued that monetary policy remained the principal tool for controlling inflation and said the central bank should not cut its policy rate further.

He also cautioned that refinancing schemes intended to revive factories must target viable industrial businesses rather than large loan defaulters.

“If the money goes to major defaulters instead of genuine industrial enterprises, it will not contribute to productivity; on the contrary, it could increase inflation.”

He said Bangladesh must protect its reserves while maintaining a flexible exchange rate, and address weaknesses in the financial sector, secure reliable energy supplies and ensure policy continuity to encourage investment and employment.

“The international crisis is not over. There are still many risks,” he said.

For now, the easing of dollar pressure offers only limited comfort. Until businesses see a more predictable environment in which to borrow, produce and earn returns, the recovery in foreign currency flows may do little to revive the investment Bangladesh needs.

An investigation into allegations that state-owned Padma Oil PLC incurred financial losses in handling US dollar earnings from jet fuel sales remains incomplete more than five months after the government ordered it, despite a five-working-day deadline.

The Energy and Mineral Resources Division formed a three-member committee on 27 April and instructed it to submit its findings within five working days.

However, the report has yet to be submitted, a deputy secretary-level division official told TBS yesterday on condition of anonymity.

The delay has left key questions unanswered about whether the company's previous dollar-handling practice caused losses, how much money was involved, and whether any officials were responsible.

Irshad Reza, deputy secretary of the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, heads the committee. The remaining members include Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) Director (Planning) Asadul Haque, and Deputy Secretary (Planning Section-1) of the division SM Jakaria.

Asadul told TBS, "Financial investigations are time-consuming. We had to collect various information and data from banks and review them," claiming that he had completed his part of the investigation and submitted his findings to the committee chairman.

Contacted for comment on 8 October, Irshad said he was ill. A ministry source subsequently confirmed that the report had not been formally submitted.

Dollar-handling practice under scrutiny

The probe followed media reports questioning Padma Oil's practice of converting dollars earned from foreign airlines into taka and handing the proceeds to BPC.

BPC then had to purchase dollars from the market to open letters of credit (LCs) for petroleum imports, exposing the state-owned corporation to exchange-rate losses estimated up to Tk2 per dollar.

Following BPC's instructions, Padma Oil and BPC have since opened foreign-currency accounts to avoid repeated conversions between dollars and taka.

Over the past five months, proceeds from jet fuel sales have been deposited into Padma Oil's foreign-currency account and transferred to BPC's account, officials said.

This month, BPC used the funds to open an import LC for petroleum products, marking the first time it had purchased fuel using foreign currency generated directly from jet fuel sales, according to officials.

Although the new arrangement has addressed the need for repeated currency conversion, the pending investigation must establish whether the previous practice caused actual losses, who approved it, whether it complied with applicable rules and why the foreign-currency mechanism was not introduced earlier.

ACC investigates CFO allegations

Separately, the Anti-Corruption Commission has launched an investigation into allegations against Padma Oil Chief Financial Officer and acting General Manager (Finance and Accounts) Kanchan Chandra Shome.

An ACC official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the commission began investigating a complaint submitted by a Padma Oil employee on 1 September.

The complaint raises allegations concerning Shome's recruitment, financial management, bank deposits, foreign travel, promotions and influence over administrative decisions.

The complainant questions whether Shome's appointment as manager (accounts) in 2009 complied with BPC recruitment rules and alleges irregularities in his reported professional experience.

The complaint also alleges that more than Tk300 crore in company funds was invested in fixed deposits with several banks, with a substantial amount remaining unrecovered. It further claims that company collections were kept for years in special notice deposit accounts offering comparatively low interest rates, causing financial losses.

Another allegation concerns a foreign trip in 2019, which the complainant claims Shome undertook on leave without prior approval from the Energy and Mineral Resources Division. The complaint also questions the handling of the dollar earnings from jet fuel sales.

The ACC investigation will determine whether the allegations have merit and whether any financial or administrative wrongdoing occurred.

Padma Oil, CFO yet to respond

TBS sent detailed questions to Padma Oil Managing Director Md Mofizur Rahman by email and WhatsApp, seeking his response to the allegations and the delay in the government probe.

When contacted by phone, he said he was in a meeting and ended the call.

TBS also sent questions to Shome's official email address and WhatsApp account and attempted to reach him by phone, but he did not answer. Neither had responded before publication.

With the government committee's report still pending and the ACC conducting a separate investigation, questions over financial oversight and accountability at the state-owned company remain unresolved.

Sonali Life Insurance PLC has partnered with mobile financial services provider Nagad to offer two life insurance products through its digital platform, aiming to expand customer access to insurance services in Bangladesh.

Under the strategic partnership agreement signed at Sonali Life's head office in Dhaka on 14 October, the company's Quick Savings Insurance Plan and Monthly Savings Plan will be made available through Nagad's platform.

The initiative will allow customers to purchase the insurance products digitally, while enabling Sonali Life to reach a wider customer base through Nagad's existing digital network.
Md Rafiqul Islam, additional managing director and chief executive officer (in charge) of Sonali Life Insurance, said digital transformation was an important part of the company's strategy to improve customer experience and expand access to insurance.

He said the partnership would provide customers with a convenient digital channel to purchase the two products and support the company's efforts to offer accessible, customer-focused insurance solutions.

Sheikh Mohammad Danial, a director of Sonali Life, said the agreement marked a step towards expanding access to life insurance through digital innovation. Offering the products through Nagad could help the company reach more customers and raise awareness of insurance, he added.

Fauzia Quamrun Tania, another director of Sonali Life, described the partnership as an initiative to make financial protection more accessible in Bangladesh. Combining the insurer's expertise with Nagad's digital reach could help bring life insurance to more people, she said.

Mohammed Shahin Sarwar Bhuiyan, chief commercial officer of Nagad, said the partnership would expand access to life insurance through digital channels.

He said Nagad had been working to simplify everyday financial transactions while introducing new digital services, expressing optimism that the initiative would make purchasing insurance more convenient and support the growth of digital financial services in Bangladesh.

The signing ceremony was attended by Sonali Life directors Fauzia Quamrun Tania and Sheikh Mohammad Danial, Chief Operating Officer Mohammad Manzur Morshed, Chief Financial Officer Mohammad Abdul Hannan, and Chief Information Officer and Company Secretary Md Abdur Rob, along with other senior officials.

Representing Nagad, attendees included Md Saidur Rahman Dipu, head of business sales; Istiaque Ahmed Shawon, head of bank, financial institution, insurance and microfinance business; Tapash Ahmed, lead for insurance and non-bank financial institutions; and Al Timayat, key account manager.

The partnership is expected to broaden the distribution of life insurance products through digital platforms as both companies seek to make insurance services more accessible to customers.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange has decided to issue 30 new Trading Right Entitlement Certificates (TRECs) to eligible domestic and foreign corporate entities to expand its commercial operations and broaden market participation.

The port city bourse currently has 153 TREC holders. The move is part of its broader business expansion plan, particularly as it prepares to operationalise the country's first commodity exchange, for which it received a licence from the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Bsec) on 19 March 2024.

According to an official notice, interested applicants, including large conglomerates, foreign institutions and commodity value chain participants, must submit applications in sealed envelopes to the bourse offices in Chattogram or Dhaka by 4pm on 15 November.
A non-refundable application fee of Tk1 lakh must be paid through a pay order or demand draft.

The issuance will comply with the Exchanges Demutualization Act, 2013 and the bourse's demutualisation scheme.

Under the eligibility criteria, locally owned companies must have a minimum paid-up capital of Tk5 crore. The requirement rises to Tk8 crore for companies jointly owned by local and foreign shareholders and Tk10 crore for wholly foreign-owned entities.

Applicants must also maintain an audited net worth of at least 75% of their paid-up capital at all times.

Selected firms will be required to maintain security deposits of Tk3 crore for local entities, Tk4 crore for joint ventures and Tk5 crore for foreign-owned companies.

The exchange has barred loan defaulters, convicted individuals and firms whose directors have previously been expelled by any stock exchange. Applicants seeking to operate Shariah-compliant businesses must maintain a dedicated Shariah board and appoint a qualified adviser.

The expansion drive comes as the Chattogram bourse faces mounting operating losses and declining profitability amid subdued trading activity.

The exchange's operating loss widened 13.54% year-on-year to Tk16.58 crore in FY26, up from Tk14.60 crore in FY25, while net profit after tax fell 28.35% to Tk20.59 crore from Tk28.74 crore.

Consequently, earnings per share declined to Tk0.32 from Tk0.45, according to disclosures approved by the board on 8 October.

An official said the exchange remained profitable mainly because of interest income from fixed deposit receipts held with different banks. However, a shortage of listed products and low trading turnover continued to drive operating losses.

Despite the decline in net profit, the board recommended a 3.25% cash dividend for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2026.

The recommendation is subject to shareholders' approval at the annual general meeting, scheduled for 10 December at the conference hall of the Chittagong Stock Exchange Building in Agrabad, Chattogram. The record date for dividend entitlement is 8 November.

Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus) has reduced gold prices in the domestic market, cutting the price of 22-carat gold by Tk3,266 per bhori to Tk2,28,031.

The new prices took effect from 10am today (13 October). Bajus said the adjustment followed a fall in the price of pure (tejabi) gold in the local market.

The decision was taken at a meeting of the association's Standing Committee on Pricing and Price Monitoring.

Under the revised rates, 21-carat gold will sell at Tk2,17,767 per bhori, down Tk3,149. The price of 18-carat gold has been cut by Tk2,683 to Tk1,87,032, while gold of the traditional method will cost Tk1,52,798 per bhori, down Tk2,158.

Bajus last raised gold prices on 9 October, when the price of 22-carat gold went up by Tk2,216 to Tk2,31,297 per bhori. The latest reduction comes just four days later.

In that earlier adjustment, 21-carat gold was priced at Tk2,20,916 per bhori, 18-carat at Tk189,715, and traditional-method gold at Tk1,54,956.

Bajus has also lowered silver ornament prices. A bhori of 22-carat silver will now cost Tk4,199, down Tk117.

The price of 21-carat silver has been cut by Tk175 to Tk4,966 per bhori, and 18-carat silver by Tk117 to Tk3,441. Silver of the traditional method is now Tk2,624 per bhori, down Tk59.

Lub-rref (Bangladesh) PLC has received regulatory approval to use its unutilised initial public offering (IPO) proceeds to meet working capital needs as the listed lubricant manufacturer grapples with mounting losses, a liquidity crunch and production constraints.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) approved the proposal last week, a commission official told The Business Standard on condition of anonymity. The company must return the funds to its IPO account within one year.

The approval allows Lub-rref to redirect around Tk20 crore, originally earmarked for machinery purchases, project expansion and loan repayment, to settle outstanding liabilities and support day-to-day operations.

The company's financial position remains under pressure. It incurred a net loss of Tk32.27 crore in the July-March period of FY26, with a loss per share of Tk2.22 against revenue of Tk27.11 crore.

Its shares closed at Tk12.40 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (13 October).

The approval could offer temporary relief by easing immediate cash-flow pressures. However, persistent losses and previous production constraints raise questions about whether the funds will be enough to restore normal operations and improve financial performance.

IPO funds remain idle after promised loan fails to materialise

Lub-rref raised Tk150 crore through an IPO in 2021. A portion of the proceeds remained unused after the company failed to secure a syndicated loan promised by Social Islami Bank PLC for the balancing, modernisation, rehabilitation and expansion (BMRE) of its project.

The unused funds are currently held in a short notice deposit (SND) account at the bank's Agrabad branch in Chattogram, generating only nominal returns, according to the company.

Lub-rref attributed the erosion of its working capital to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and political instability in Bangladesh in 2024. It said these disruptions weakened its financial capacity, making it difficult to sustain operations and meet financial obligations.

Under the revised utilisation plan, the company will use $364,811 of the proceeds to settle outstanding liabilities against letters of credit (LCs), equivalent to approximately Tk4.56 crore at an exchange rate of Tk125 per dollar.

Another Tk4.33 crore will be used as a down payment to reschedule long- and short-term loans under Bangladesh Bank's Banking Regulation and Policy Department (BRPD) Circular No 7. The remaining funds will be available for working capital after these payments.

The company's board approved the revised plan at its 187th meeting on 9 June, and the proposal was subsequently placed before shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting on 9 July.

According to the company's disclosures, 51% of shareholders, excluding sponsors and directors, approved the proposal.

The company said the initiative was taken in the interests of general shareholders, while the BSEC also considered the interests of ordinary investors in reaching its decision.

Production constraints and mounting losses

Lub-rref manufactures and refines lubricants under its BNO brand. Its expansion plans at Julda, beside the Karnaphuli River, included a base oil refinery, tank terminal, jetty, hydrogen plant and specialised bitumen plant.

However, dollar shortages, difficulties importing raw materials, global economic disruptions and delays in bank loan disbursements put pressure on project implementation and production.

In May 2024, the company sought permission to use Tk56 crore of its then-unutilised IPO proceeds as working capital. At the time, its chief financial officer said the company was operating at just 30%–40% of its normal production capacity.

Its financial performance subsequently deteriorated, with losses reaching Tk66 crore in FY2024-25. The latest nine-month loss indicates that the company continues to struggle to revive operations and recover revenue.

Kabir Hossain, company secretary of Lub-rref, did not respond to requests for comment on the company's current business and financial conditions.

The latest approval may help the company settle overdue liabilities, secure working capital and meet immediate financial obligations. However, it does not resolve the underlying challenges of restoring production, boosting revenue and returning to profitability.

Lub-rref must also replenish the IPO account within one year, making the effective use of the funds crucial. Its ability to revive operations and generate sufficient cash flow will be key to meeting this obligation while addressing its ongoing financial difficulties.

Bangladesh is heading for a possible 16-year high in inflation, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today (13 October) projecting it to reach 10.9% in the current FY27 fiscal year, a sharp reversal from the 6% forecast it made just six months ago.

Bangladesh last recorded a similar annual average in FY2010-11, when inflation reached 10.92%, according to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data.

More recently, inflation surged amid global price pressures following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with the annual average reaching 10.03% in FY25.

Inflation subsequently moderated, with average headline inflation falling to 8.7% in FY26, but remained high.

The easing continued into the new fiscal year, with monthly inflation slipping from 8.32% in July to 8.26% in August before rising again to 8.34% in September, BBS data show.

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, released today, said, "Global inflation is expected to pause its steady decline, primarily because of the war-induced negative supply shock."

Global headline inflation is projected to rise notably to 4.7% in 2026 from 4.1% last year and will ease to 4.1% in 2027.

"Energy-importing economies outside the technology value chain face the most difficult outlook," it added in its outlook released as global economic and finance leaders gather in Bangkok for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.

Against this backdrop, the IMF's 10.9% projection for Bangladesh is higher than forecasts issued by other international lenders.

In its September Asian Development Outlook, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised its forecast for 12-month average inflation in FY27 to 9%, from 8.8% projected in July.

The ADB attributed the expected increase to the lagged effects of a stronger El Niño event, persistent supply-side price pressures from energy shortages, higher production and transport costs, as well as possible shipping disruptions.

A gradual shift towards less restrictive monetary policy and expanded liquidity support could add to the pressure, the Manila-based lender said.

The World Bank, meanwhile, projected in its October 2026 Bangladesh Development Update that inflation will remain elevated at 8.6% in FY27.

It cited recent increases in domestic energy prices, persistent supply-side constraints, expansionary fiscal policy and a shift towards a less contractionary monetary policy stance.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has decided to take strict legal action against listed companies that fail to deposit their declared final cash dividends into separate bank accounts before their annual general meetings (AGMs).

The decision was taken at a commission meeting today (13 October), chaired by BSEC Chairman Masud Khan.

Under existing regulatory directives, listed companies proposing annual cash dividends must deposit the full declared amount into a designated dividend bank account at least one day before their AGMs.

They must also obtain a bank certificate confirming the deposit, duly certified by the managing director, chief financial officer and company secretary, and submit it to the stock exchanges before presenting it to shareholders at the AGM.

Noting recent instances of non-compliance, the commission decided to take punitive action against defaulting companies under the applicable securities laws.

The BSEC also decided to amend the existing directive to explicitly prohibit companies from presenting dividend proposals at AGMs without first depositing the full amount into a separate bank account and obtaining the required bank certificate.

In a parallel move to simplify administrative procedures under the Corporate Governance Code, 2018, the capital market watchdog streamlined the appointment and reappointment framework for independent directors.

The commission decided that approval for the reappointment of existing independent directors will now be granted upon receiving an updated clean Credit Information Bureau (CIB) report from Bangladesh Bank.

Additionally, if an independent director was previously granted an exemption or relaxation regarding qualification and experience criteria under condition of the Corporate Governance Code, that waiver will now automatically apply to new appointments in other listed firms or reappointments in the same company, eliminating the need to seek fresh approval.

Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir today sought the Netherlands’ support in advancing negotiations for a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) with the European Union (EU) and expanding Bangladesh’s trade benefits in the European market after its graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category.

The minister sought the cooperation at a meeting with Sjoerd Sjoerdsma, the Netherlands’ minister of foreign trade and development cooperation, held at the commerce ministry in Dhaka.

Muktadir emphasised the importance of taking bilateral economic relations to a new level by leveraging Dutch technology and investment in agriculture, the jute industry, energy, ports and water management, according to a statement from the commerce ministry.

Highlighting the importance of maintaining Bangladesh’s export competitiveness in the post-LDC era, he said Europe is one of Bangladesh’s most important export markets.

The minister stressed the importance of advancing technical discussions on the proposed FTA with the EU and removing non-tariff barriers.

He particularly noted the potential for joint initiatives to improve the quality and productivity of potatoes and other vegetables, produce export-oriented agricultural goods that meet international standards, and develop new markets.

Regarding cooperation in the jute industry, Muktadir said growing global demand for environment-friendly products was creating new market opportunities for Bangladesh’s jute and jute-based goods.

He noted that Dutch technological assistance could play an important role in developing improved jute seeds, increasing productivity, establishing joint research laboratories and producing diversified jute products.

In particular, he highlighted the potential for adding greater value to the jute industry through environment-friendly packaging and the production of blended-fibre fabrics.

The Dutch minister expressed interest in expanding investment in promising sectors and strengthening existing economic ties with Bangladesh.

He emphasised the importance of drawing on Dutch expertise in agricultural technology, food processing, industrial modernisation, maritime transport and water management.

In the areas of port management and maritime transport, the discussions focused on developing Bangladesh’s port infrastructure, including the Laldia Terminal, establishing modern logistics systems, and exploring potential investment and technological participation by Dutch companies, the statement said.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday and were on track for their first decline in nearly a week, as traders assessed supply risks from attacks on Saudi Arabia while weighing the prospect of additional diesel supplies from Russia.

Brent crude futures fell $1.30, or 1.2 percent, to $105.35 a barrel by 0329 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $1.25, or 1.3 percent, at $92.49 a barrel.

Both benchmarks climbed nearly $2 a barrel in the previous session, with Brent settling at its highest since September 15.

US President Donald Trump said Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets, and his administration temporarily lifted US sanctions on Russian fuel designed to deprive Moscow of revenue for its war on Ukraine.

Additional supplies could help alleviate tightness in global fuel markets, tempering some of the supply concerns that have supported crude prices recently.

However, "there is considerable scepticism over the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, particularly with reports that Russia has hit Ukrainian energy targets since Trump announced it," ING analysts said in a note.

Lawmakers from both parties in the US complained Trump's agreement with Putin appears to violate US law barring imports of Russian energy until Moscow ends its aggression against Ukraine.

Concerns over the vulnerability of Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping lanes remained in focus after Iran-aligned Houthis struck Riyadh's international airport over the weekend, while tanker attacks were reported near the Strait of Hormuz.

The incidents threatened to derail a recovery in Middle East supplies seen in September, and have reinforced fears of further disruptions along one of the world's most important energy transit routes.

"Fresh diesel supply from Russia and steadier Saudi flows are offering some relief, yet the market still looks more worried about the risk of further hits to ships or pipelines in the Gulf than it is reassured by extra barrels," said Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade.

"Until we see clearer signs of de-escalation, the path of least resistance still leans higher," he said.

Ministers of OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries in the Declaration of Cooperation said shipping and insurance costs have surged to unprecedented levels of over one-third of the commodity value, impeding efficient movement of crude oil and products.

OPEC has revised down its oil demand growth forecast for this year to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million bpd at the start of the year, in line with developments throughout the year, Haitham Al Ghais, Secretary General of the organisation said on Monday.

US payments firm Visa has received approval from China's central bank to begin preparations for a domestic bank card clearing institution in the country, ending years of waiting to tap into one of the world's largest payment markets.

The move marks a major step for Visa to join rivals American Express and Mastercard in operating bank card clearing services in China and represents a further opening up of the nation's tightly controlled financial sector.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued an administrative approval to Visa Information Technology (Beijing) Co Ltd permitting it to begin preparatory work, according to the central bank's website.

Visa Information Technology (Beijing) is a foreign-invested enterprise established in China by Visa.

"The approval of our Application to Prepare marks a significant step forward in Visa's long-standing commitment to China," Visa CEO Ryan McInerney said in a statement on Tuesday.

The approval comes after US President Donald Trump's summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping earlier this year in China, which included more than a dozen CEOs of top US companies, including those of Mastercard and Visa.

"We greatly appreciate the important role of the leaders of the United States and China in pursuing a constructive and strategically stable relationship between the world's largest economies," McInerney said.

Visa must complete its preparations within one year, after which it can apply to open for business, the PBOC said.

The central bank, together with the nation's top banking regulator, will review the application and, if it approves, issue a bank card clearing business license.

A GOODWILL GESTURE?

Visa was hoping to break into the Chinese market, which is dominated by state-controlled China UnionPay, with an unprecedented 100 percent ownership stake in a future joint venture license, sources have told Reuters.

"This should be viewed as a goodwill gesture from Beijing towards Washington ahead of the next meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump," said George Chen, partner and chair of digital practice at The Asia Group.

The two are expected to meet again on the sidelines of the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen in November.

Greater market access in financial services has long been a priority for Washington, which has consistently urged Beijing to provide a more open and level playing field for foreign firms operating in China's financial sector, said Chen.

Mastercard, partnering with local clearinghouse NetsUnion Clearing Corp, won approval to prepare to set up its bank card clearing business in China in 2020.

American Express' joint venture in the country was cleared to start bank card clearing services later that year.

In China, bank cards processed 4.6 trillion transactions worth 963.60 trillion yuan ($143.92 trillion) in 2025, according to data from the central bank, highlighting the market's enormous potential.

Dhaka Electric Supply Company (Desco) returned to profitability in FY2025-26 after three years of losses, which had been exacerbated by currency volatility and foreign exchange losses.

The state-owned power distributor posted a profit of Tk40.15 crore, with earnings per share of Tk1.01, driven by higher revenue and gains from foreign currency movements, according to a disclosure published on the stock exchanges today (13 October).

The company also recommended a 5% cash dividend for shareholders for FY26, after skipping dividend payments for two consecutive years due to heavy losses.

Under the recommendation, shareholders will receive Tk0.50 for each share held, with the total dividend payout amounting to Tk6.42 crore.

This marks a major turnaround for the power distributor, which had incurred a heavy loss of Tk125 crore in FY25.

Following the declaration of dividend and annual corporate declaration, Desco's share price declined by 6.75% to Tk23.50 each at the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

In the three years, it had incurred a total Tk1,172 crore losses since FY2022-23 to FY2024-25.

Due to the losses, it had skipped dividend payouts for FY24-25, according to its financial statements.

According to disclosure, Desco managed to break its three-year streak of losses due to several positive operational and financial developments.

It said, this positive result was mainly attributed to higher yields from increased sales revenue by enhancing operational activities, interest income and a positive swing in foreign exchange operations, shifting from a foreign currency exchange loss in the prior period to a foreign exchange gain.

It previously faced blow due to heavy loss for foreign currency fluctuation for paying its foreign debts.

The net operating cash flow per share stood at Tk17.99, and the net asset value per share at Tk39.23, which was Tk15.93 and Tk35.33 respectively for the previous fiscal year.

On the capital market front, Desco's current market capitalisation stands atTk1,001 crore.

In a previous disclosure, it said the company received consent from the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission for issuance of 4.59 crore Irredeemable Non-Cumulative Preference Shares of Tk10 each amounting total Tk45.90 crore. The shares to be issued in favour of the Government of Bangladesh, represented by the Secretary, Power Division, Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, against share money deposits.

The state-owned Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL) is financing Walton Hi-Tech Industries' 50-megawatt (MW) captive solar power project, marking one of the largest rooftop and floating solar investments by a private manufacturer in the country.

IDCOL will provide Tk 1.44 billion in total for the project, of which Tk 440 million has already been disbursed, IDCOL acting managing director Monirul Islam told energy reporters at Walton's complex in Chandra, Gazipur on Monday.

Walton has so far installed 32 MW from solar — covering factory roofs, walkways and a 1.25 MW floating plant on a factory pond — with support from IDCOL, Monirul said.

The electronics giant consumes around 35 MW a day. It plans to add another 18 MW by December this year, taking total green generation to 50 MW.

"We are working to meet our entire daytime load from green sources," Walton Additional Managing Director Md Nazrul Islam Sarker said during the site visit, organised by the Forum for Energy Reporters Bangladesh (FERB) in collaboration with IDCOL.Buy Maps

IDCOL has been a key financier of renewable energy since 2002, starting with its nationwide Solar Home System programme, and is now focusing on industrial rooftop and floating solar to help meet the government's renewable energy targets.

The government has recently cut import duties and offered incentives for solar equipment as Bangladesh looks to diversify its fuel mix, improve energy efficiency and cut carbon emissions amid rising industrial power costs.

Walton said the solar shift is expected to significantly reduce its grid dependence and energy bill, while advancing its green factory compliance for export.

Once completed, the 50 MW plant will be among the largest captive renewable projects by a single industrial group in Bangladesh, officials said.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has decided to enforce strict legal action against listed companies failing to deposit declared final cash dividends into separate bank accounts prior to their Annual General Meetings (AGMs).

The decision was made during the regulator's commission meeting, presided over by BSEC Chairman Masud Khan, today (13 October).

Under existing regulatory directives, listed companies proposing an annual cash dividend must transfer the entire declared sum into a dedicated, separate dividend bank account at least one day before their AGM.

Companies are also required to obtain a bank certificate validating the deposit, which must be certified by the managing director, chief financial officer, and company secretary, before submitting it to stock exchanges and presenting it to shareholders at the AGM.

Observing recent non-compliance with these rules, the BSEC resolved to take punitive measures against defaulting companies under applicable securities laws.

Furthermore, BSEC decided to amend the existing directive to explicitly mandate that no dividend proposal can be presented at an AGM without first depositing the full amount into a separate account and securing the requisite bank certificate.

In a parallel move to simplify administrative procedures in line with the Corporate Governance Code, 2018, the capital market watchdog streamlined the appointment and reappointment framework for independent directors.

The commission decided that approval for the reappointment of existing independent directors will now be granted upon receiving an updated clean Credit Information Bureau (CIB) report from Bangladesh Bank.

Additionally, if an independent director was previously granted an exemption or relaxation regarding qualification and experience criteria under the conditions of the Corporate Governance Code, that waiver will now automatically apply to new appointments in other listed firms or reappointments in the same company, eliminating the need to seek fresh approval.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its economic growth forecast for Bangladesh in the current fiscal year (FY2026-27) to 3.2 percent from the 4.3 percent projected in April, joining other major development partners in downgrading their outlooks amid persistent economic challenges.

It also projected an increase in average inflation in Bangladesh to 10.9 percent in the current fiscal year, reversing the easing seen in FY26, when average consumer price inflation fell to 8.7 percent from double digits, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released yesterday at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group in Bangkok.

The IMF’s inflation projection is higher than the World Bank’s forecast of 8.6 percent for the current fiscal year, FY27, made earlier this month. However, both multilateral lenders have cut their economic growth forecasts for the South Asian country.

The World Bank has recently revised down its forecast for Bangladesh’s economic growth to 3.4 percent this year, while the ADB trimmed its growth projection for Bangladesh to 4 percent in September.

It would be the fourth consecutive year of slowing economic growth, as energy shortages, banking sector vulnerabilities, subdued credit growth and tight fiscal constraints continue to weigh on Bangladesh’s economy.

The downgrade in the economic outlook for the South Asian economy comes as the IMF expects the global economy to grow by 3.1 percent in 2026, down from 3.5 percent last year, with the war in the Middle East and a surge in artificial intelligence-related investment pulling economies in different directions.

It projects that advanced economies will grow by 2.1 percent this year and emerging and developing economies by 3.7 percent. The Middle East and Central Asia region is expected to be the hardest hit, contracting by 0.3 percent.

In South Asia, India is projected to grow by 7 percent in both FY27 and FY28, among the fastest rates in the region. Pakistan’s economy is projected to expand by 3.6 percent in FY26 and 3.5 percent in FY27.

The IMF said the global outlook masks growing disparities, with 32 economies expected to account for 95 percent of global growth, down from 54 in April. About 47 percent of economies have had their growth forecasts downgraded.

Countries less exposed to the energy shock and more closely connected to the technology supply chain are holding up better, it said.

Energy-importing economies outside that supply chain, including many low-income countries, face higher import bills, currency pressures and weaker incomes. The IMF said oil prices will average around $96 a barrel in 2026, compared with $68 a year ago.

The fund said global inflation would rise to 4.7 percent this year from 4.1 percent in 2025, driven mainly by energy and food prices.

The multilateral lender warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and weather disruptions linked to El Niño could push energy and food prices higher. A reassessment of expected returns from artificial intelligence investment could also trigger a sharp market correction.The IMF urged governments to rebuild fiscal buffers, avoid broad fuel subsidies and price controls, and keep any support temporary and targeted, preferably through cash transfers.