Iran’s economy contracted by more than 10 percent during the Middle East war, which began with US-Israeli attacks in late February.

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 10.1 percent year-on-year from late March to late June, a period known in Iran as the first quarter of the Persian calendar, according to the Statistical Center of Iran on Sunday.

Iran has been at war with the United States since late February, when US-Israeli strikes killed the Islamic republic’s supreme leader and senior military officials at the start of a vast offensive.

The strikes sparked Tehran’s retaliation in blocking the Strait of Hormuz -- causing global oil prices to surge -- as the conflict spread in the Middle East.

Aside from this, Iran’s economy has long struggled with hyperinflation and devaluation of its currency, caused in large part by economic sanctions.

The government has formed five specialised working groups to implement the National Logistics Policy 2025 and strengthen Bangladesh’s capacity for domestic and international trade.

The working groups are focused on logistics digitalisation, investment, skills development, multimodal logistics infrastructure and trade facilitation, according to notifications issued by the Prime Minister's Office by the end of last week.

The panels have been formed in line with the decisions of the National Logistics Development and Coordination Committee (NLDCC).

The interim government framed National Logistics Policy 2025, aiming to position Bangladesh as a leading regional trade and logistics hub by 2050, by annulling the previous one formulated in April 2024 by the ousted Awami League-led government.

Of the groups, the trade facilitation working group will be headed by the commerce secretary.

It is mandated to formulate time-bound action plans to reduce time, operational costs and procedures in import-export, customs clearance, cargo release, and port and border management under the policy.

The group will also review progress under the World Trade Organization Trade Facilitation Agreement (WTO-TFA) and propose frameworks for pre-arrival processing, electronic declarations, automated clearance, risk management, green channels, Authorised Economic Operators and post-clearance audits, according to the notification.

Headed by the secretary of the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Division, the logistics digitalisation working group will prepare a roadmap for real-time tracking and tracing of goods, containers and vehicles from source to destination, integrating digital systems across customs, ports, transport, warehousing, tax and banking, and defining verification metrics for a National Logistics Dashboard.

The investment working group, led by an executive member of Invest Bangladesh, will identify foreign and local investment potential in the sector and identify impediments.

The logistics infrastructure working group will formulate short-, medium- and long-term action plans for physical infrastructure development.

The panel, led by the member for physical infrastructure at the Planning Commission, will also identify bottlenecks across transport modes, ports, inland container depots, container freight stations and logistics hubs.

It will also evaluate and prioritise Public-Private Partnership projects in the logistics sector.

The skills development working group has been tasked with identifying skill gaps and assessing human resource requirements across the logistics sector.

Private inland container depots (ICDs) in Chattogram have raised several container handling and transportation charges by 9.85% following the government's latest increase in diesel prices.

The Bangladesh Inland Container Depots Association (BICDA) announced the revised rates in a circular issued today (21 September), with the new charges taking effect from today. The circular was signed by BICDA Secretary General Ruhul Amin Sikder.

The government raised the price of diesel by 17.4%, from Tk115 to Tk135 per litre, effective the same day.

BICDA said the surcharge was introduced to account for higher operating costs for fuel-dependent activities at private ICDs.

The 9.85% surcharge will be added to the previously reviewed rates for several services, including transporting empty containers between Chattogram Port and private ICDs, and between Patenga Container Terminal (PCT) and ICDs.

It will also apply to empty container lift-on and lift-off charges.

The surcharge will apply to the export goods stuffing and handling package.

The package covers lifting empty containers at the empty yard, transporting them to the container freight station shed, stuffing export goods, transporting loaded containers to the load yard and subsequently moving them to Chattogram Port or PCT.

Charges for weighing export-loaded containers, known as Verified Gross Mass (VGM), will also increase by 9.85%.

The VGM package includes lifting a loaded container at the load yard, transporting it to the weighing scale, weighing it, returning it to the load yard and lifting it off there.

The increase will also apply to import goods delivery package charges.

The package includes transporting import-loaded containers from Chattogram Port or PCT to private ICDs, lifting them off, placing them at import delivery yards and unloading goods from the containers onto trucks using labourers.

BICDA instructed individual ICDs to notify their clients about the 9.85% increase in the previously reviewed rates.

Private ICDs handle export and import cargo linked to Chattogram Port and play a key role in the country's trade and logistics chain.

The oil shock caused by the Iran war is re-charging the electric vehicle (EV) market as high gasoline and diesel prices stimulate consumer demand for alternatives.

Economics is becoming as powerful a driver of EV sales as government subsidies and green ideology, particularly in countries most exposed to the loss of oil and gas supply from the Gulf.

This has huge implications for both the oil and metal markets, particularly for critical EV inputs such as lithium, nickel and copper.

Metal bulls lost interest in the EV story a couple of years ago after reality failed to live up to the early hype.

Grid storage and data centers are now the hot talking-points for lithium and copper markets respectively.

But wars in both the Middle East and Ukraine are acting as powerful accelerators of the green transport revolution.

At a headline level, nothing very much appears to be happening in the EV sector.

Global sales of new energy vehicles grew by just 4 percent year-on-year from January to August, according to consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI).

That pedestrian growth rate, however, masks wildly differing regional markets.

US President Donald Trump’s elimination of his predecessor’s subsidy scheme has sent the country’s EV sector into steep decline.

Sales in August were down 33 percent year-on-year, bringing the year-to-date contraction to 21 percent.

US auto manufacturers have pivoted back to conventional engines, cancelling planned investment in new electric models and battery supply chains.

China is another weak spot.

The world’s largest EV market saw sales shrink by 12 percent year-on-year in the January-August period.

But this should be seen in the context of a broader downturn in the domestic vehicle market, which registered a 24 percent year-on-year drop in total passenger vehicle sales in August.

The EV segment of the market has fared relatively well, and the new energy vehicle penetration rate hit a new high of 65 percent last month. Not that China’s auto companies are too concerned anyway.

They are exporting record amounts of EVs to the rest of the world.

European sales jumped by 36 percent year-on-year in August, with year-to-date growth running at 29 percent as high pump prices combine with government subsidy schemes. But the most spectacular growth is outside the big three markets.

EV sales in the rest of the world have doubled so far this year, according to BMI.

On a total cost-of-ownership basis, battery EVs have already reached price parity with traditional internal combustion engine vehicles in China, according to analysts at consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

The flood of low-priced Chinese exports at a time of high gasoline prices is rapidly closing the gap in other Asian markets.

But, equally critically, consumer perceptions are changing.

For many, buying an EV is no longer a commitment to the green cause but rather an economic choice.

Wood Mackenzie has modeled what it calls an “electric shock” scenario, in which high oil prices both accelerate consumer adoption of battery-powered vehicles and stimulate governments to prioritise reducing fossil-fuel reliance.

With battery performance continuously improving and EV costs falling, a structural shift in the passenger vehicle market could arrive much faster than expected.

The longer the Iran war grinds on and the longer Ukraine targets Russian oil refineries, the more likely that scenario becomes.

If the EV sector is shifting out of the slow lane, it will mean more pressure on already stressed metal supply chains.

Wood Mackenzie assesses that there will be enough metal to meet even accelerated EV demand but — and it’s a big “but” — only if investment in new production capacity is scaled up at the same rate.

Under the company’s shock scenario, copper demand would only grow by an incremental 2 percent relative to a base-case scenario that assumes global EV sales keep growing at a modest 4 percent annual pace.

But that means additional new mine capacity would have to rise from the long-term average of 850,000 metric tons per year to 960,000 tons between 2025 and 2040.

Lithium demand would grow by an extra 14 percent with availability complicated by China’s dominant control of the global supply chain.

Over the last decade, EV metal markets have struggled to match supply with demand, generating a sequence of price booms and busts.

It’s quite possible they’re going to get wrong-footed again as EV sales accelerate just about everywhere outside the US.

The irony is that while the Trump administration has stalled the US transition to vehicle electrification, it has inadvertently persuaded much of the rest of the world that it is time to go green.

The Bangladesh Fertilizer Association (BFA) has demanded that the sales commission per sack of fertiliser be doubled from Tk 100 to Tk 200 and that the recruitment of new fertiliser dealers be put on hold.

Md Mosharraf Hossain, chairman of the association, made the demands at a press conference held at its office in Dhaka yesterday.

He said dealers have been pressing for a higher commission for 18 years without result. Over that period, fuel prices, transport costs and the prices of essentials have risen repeatedly, sharply increasing dealers’ operating costs.

In 2008, the combined transport cost and sales commission was Tk 100 per sack. After transport and other expenses, dealers were left with a net commission of roughly Tk 25 to Tk 30 per sack.

Under the same arrangement now, Mosharraf claimed, dealers lose around Tk 50 to Tk 55 on every sack.

He acknowledged that the government has raised the commission by Tk 50 per sack, but noted that the increase will not take effect until July 1, 2027.

Even then, it would only bring dealers to a “no profit, no loss” position.

To ensure their survival, he said, the commission must be raised by a further Tk 100 to Tk 200 per sack.

Mosharraf warned that without an increase, dealers may gradually lose interest in the trade, which could disrupt the supply of fertiliser to farmers.

He urged the government to give long-established dealers a chance to stay in business.

The association also objected to the Integrated Policy on Fertiliser Dealer Appointment and Distribution-2026, alleging that several of its provisions are inconsistent, unconstitutional and self-contradictory. It filed a writ petition on the issue on September 2.

According to the BFA, the High Court has since issued a 60-day rule for the issues to be settled legally. The association alleged, however, that district fertiliser and seed monitoring committees are still appointing new dealers in various districts despite the court’s rule.

The BFA added that the agriculture ministry has yet to take any initiative to discuss the disputed provisions with it.

Mosharraf cautioned that the authorities concerned would be held responsible for any untoward incident arising from the situation.

For millions of Bangladeshis already struggling with high cost of living, a Tk20-a-litre increase in fuel prices means another blow to household budgets.

The impact is being felt far beyond filling stations, triggering higher bus fares for commuters, larger fuel bills for motorcyclists, rising irrigation costs for farmers, and heavier logistics bills for factories already struggling with acute energy shortages.

The adjustment marks the second fuel price hike since the BNP-led administration took office eight months ago. It comes at a precarious time: national inflation remains well above 8%, while wage growth has lagged behind living costs for more than four years.

The fallout was immediate.

Public transport operators across Dhaka adjusted fares upwards on several key routes, intercity bus operators raised ticket prices, and freight transporters announced impending rate increases.

For professional ride-sharing motorcyclists, the increase presents a difficult dilemma: absorb the added operating expense and take a direct pay cut, or pass it on to passengers and risk losing trade.

Fuel price hike to intensify inflation, squeeze households: Fahmida Khatun
"The earnings from riding throughout the day barely cover food and clothing for my five-member family. Now that fuel prices have increased, I don't know how I will manage my household," said Jasim Uddin, a ride-sharing motorcycle driver in Chattogram.

For those like him, there is little room to absorb another rise in operating costs.

Al Amin, who drives for Pathao in Dhaka, said his daily fuel bill would rise by Tk100-150, adding Tk3,000-4,000 to his monthly fuel expenses.

The problem extends beyond professional drivers.

The burden also extends to daily commuters who rely on two-wheelers for work, school runs, and errands.

"I need my bike every day to take my children to and from school and for necessary tasks. The way fuel prices are increasing, it will put a lot of pressure on my monthly budget," said motorcycle user Jahangir Alam.

A cost that travels through the economy

Fahmida Khatun, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said the impact would cascade across households, agriculture, industry, and transport.

"Individuals face higher direct travel expenses, but even households that do not purchase fuel directly will be affected as logistics costs push up the price of food and basic necessities," she said, noting that low- and middle-income families would suffer disproportionately.

That transmission mechanism is already visible. In Dhaka, commuters reported Tk5 to Tk10 fare increases on various local routes. Fares for Laguna human-hauliers running from Chittagong Road to Jatrabari rose from Tk20 to Tk25, while long-distance bus fares from Sayedabad to southern districts jumped by up to Tk50. Some Chattogram-bound services increased fares by Tk100.

Freight networks are feeling similar pressure. A truck operator in Rajshahi noted that hauling produce from Bogura to Chattogram would now cost an additional Tk3,000 to Tk4,000 per trip, an added expense that will inevitably reach retail vegetable markets.

"The additional fare will certainly be passed on by businesses to vegetable prices. As a result, consumers will have to pay more," said truck driver Mohammad Shamim Hossain.

At Benapole, the nation's largest land port, truck freight rates to Dhaka surged from Tk22,000-Tk23,000 to as much as Tk30,000. Cargo runs to Chattogram rose to between Tk35,000 and Tk40,000 per shipment.

Businesses fear those additional costs will eventually reach consumers.

Fears of rising essential costs

While retail prices for basic groceries, poultry, and fresh produce remained broadly stable on Sunday, shopkeepers warn that higher transport costs will feed into shelf prices as new wholesale stock arrives.

Miraj Ahmed, a grocery shopkeeper at New Market, said prices had not changed yet due to the fuel price hike.

"Prices of our products have not changed so far because of the fuel price increase. However, if the cost of transporting goods rises, prices of some products may go up in the coming days," he said.

With key staples like chillies, eggplant, broiler chicken, and fish already trading at elevated levels, consumers fear further freight-driven price increases will make daily nutrition increasingly unaffordable.

Hafiz Uddin, a private-sector employee shopping at Hatirpool, said consumers were now waiting to see whether the fuel price hike would affect the markets. "If transportation costs increase, vegetable prices will certainly go up," he said.

Farmers face higher costs

Agriculture is another major pressure point because diesel remains central to irrigation and mechanisation.

Around 70% of the country's irrigation pumps run on diesel. A study by researchers from Bangladesh Agricultural University and the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute found that irrigation accounts for around 20-25% of total production costs for Boro rice.

That means the fuel increase comes directly at farmers' production costs.

Fuel price hike to push up transport and production costs, worsen inflationary pressure: Selim Raihan
"Diesel-dependent agriculture will face higher irrigation, mechanisation and transportation costs. This could potentially raise food prices, but reduce farmers' returns," Fahmida Khatun said.

For farmers already facing weak prices for some crops, the prospect is particularly worrying.

A farmer in Naogaon, Ahsan Habib, said mechanised irrigation had become essential for cultivation, while fuel prices continued to rise.

He said rice prices had fallen and there were few buyers for potatoes, leaving farmers squeezed between rising production costs and weak selling prices.

The dilemma is straightforward: farmers cannot easily pass all their higher costs on to buyers, particularly when market prices are weak. Their margins can therefore shrink even as consumers eventually face higher food prices through transportation and other costs.

Businesses squeezed from both sides

For manufacturers, exporters and small businesses, the fuel increase adds another layer of costs at a time when many are already struggling with expensive inputs, inadequate gas and electricity supplies and weak demand.

Mosharraf Hossain, Managing Director of Mosharraf Group, which has spinning and dyeing mills, told TBS, "Due to the latest increase in fuel prices, additional expenses will rise by nearly Tk40 lakh per month."

Currently, on average, his spinning mill requires over Tk60 lakh worth of diesel per month due to the gas crisis. And dyeing requires Tk75 lakh to Tk80 lakh. Because of the recent price hike, his monthly diesel expenses will increase by about Tk30 lakh.

Mosharraf said expenses had already risen due to using diesel amid the gas shortage. This new increase will further escalate costs, which will overall raise production expenses. "However, we cannot pass this extra cost on to buyers because demand is not increasing," he said.

He added that while gas pressure has slightly increased compared to before, it is still not sufficient to run the factories at full capacity. "Against my requirement of 15 PSI, we are currently receiving only 2.5 PSI. As a result, I am forced to use diesel," he said.

Fuel prices hiked by Tk20 per litre
Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries, said businesses were already operating under severe pressure.

"At such a time, increasing fuel prices by more than 15% without consulting anyone will create additional pressure across all sectors," he said.

He warned that higher fuel prices would increase production and transportation costs and could force some businesses to scale back operations.

Shams Mahmud, managing director of Shasha Denims, said manufacturing, logistics, agriculture, services and fast-moving consumer goods were already under stress.

For export-oriented businesses, he said, the increase would add to the cost of doing business at a time when competitiveness was already under pressure.

The effect can be particularly sharp for businesses that depend on generators or climate-controlled facilities.

At Benapole, frozen shrimp exporter Shyamol Das said higher fuel and transport costs would increase the expense of maintaining cold-chain facilities and moving goods to Chattogram.

"For export-oriented industries, which are already in a vulnerable state with decreasing competitiveness, it will add to the already increasing cost of doing business," Mahmud said.

Dr Fahmida of CPD also believes Bangladesh's export competitiveness may erode because of the latest fuel price hike.

Was there any way out?

Fahmida noted that while the government has limited alternatives to raising prices due to its severely constrained fiscal space, it could still consider two key options: temporarily reducing high import taxes on fuel oils and managing demand more efficiently.

She explained that although high taxes on petroleum products generate crucial government revenue, temporarily lowering them could have cushioned the impact of the recent price hike and eased economic pressure on transport, agriculture, and essential goods.

"Of course, lower taxes would reduce revenue and require alternative financing. The government should therefore publish the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation's (BPC) import costs, operating expenses, tax payments, and losses," she said.

"When global oil prices surge unexpectedly, taxes could be adjusted temporarily and reviewed once conditions stabilise – balancing consumer relief with fiscal requirements in a measured manner."

She also urged the government to curb fuel pilferage and prioritise distribution to sector-critical needs.

Apparel exporters will now be able to import specialised fabrics and materials used to produce niche products such as seamless sportswear, underwear and functional garments more easily, as the government has relaxed several provisions of the country’s import policy.

The commerce ministry amended the Import Policy Order 2026-2029 through a notification issued on Sunday, with the changes taking immediate effect.

Under the amended provisions, specialised fabrics and materials required for producing certain types of garments can be imported on the recommendation of either the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) or the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA).

The move is expected to ease sourcing of inputs for manufacturers producing specialised apparel, which often require fabrics and materials that are not commonly used in mainstream garment production.

The latest amendment also removes some procedural requirements that had created additional complications for exporters, according to Mohammad Hatem, president of BKMEA.

Speaking to The Daily Star, Hatem said the changes were largely aimed at correcting inconsistencies and unnecessary restrictions in the Import Policy Order 2026-2029.

One of the major changes concerns the import of fabrics and yarn.

Under the previous provision, importers in certain cases were required to obtain approval from the Ministry of Commerce to import knit fabrics and yarn.

“That requirement did not make much sense when imports were already being made under the utilisation declaration (UD) system and within the framework of the import policy,” Hatem said.

He said the requirement could have forced businesses to approach the ministry for approval for individual letters of credit, adding another layer of paperwork to the import process.

The amended policy has removed the requirement, he said.

The government has also scrapped a provision concerning the import of spare parts for industrial machinery.

Previously, the value of spare parts that could be imported was capped at 2 percent of the value of machinery in the first year and 5 percent in subsequent years.

Hatem said the amendment also addressed several other inconsistencies, including contradictory and unclear wording in the previous policy.

“These corrections will make import procedures easier for businesses and reduce disruptions caused by inconsistencies in the policy,” he said.

The notification, however, does not provide any specific duty concession or quantitative limit for the import of the specialised fabrics and materials. Rather, it sets out the conditions under which such inputs can be imported.

Bangladesh Bank has allowed offshore banking units of commercial banks to buy and sell foreign currency and conduct cross-currency swaps, widening their access to dollars for domestic banking operations.

The central bank announced the move in a notification on Monday, saying the new facility was intended to make foreign-currency fund management “more efficient and cost-effective”.

“Offshore banking units have been allowed to directly buy and sell foreign currency and conduct cross-currency swap transactions,” the circular said.

Bangladesh Bank expects the decision to increase access to foreign-currency financing for trade and business at more competitive costs.

The facility has also been introduced to bring the country’s offshore banking operations more closely in line with internationally recognised treasury practices.

Under the new arrangement, offshore banking units will be able to buy and sell foreign currencies and enter into cross-currency swaps with their own banks’ domestic banking operations and with other authorised dealers.

The central bank believes this will enable offshore units to mobilise more foreign currency than before to meet domestic demand. Greater investment opportunities are also expected to make the units more active.

A senior official of the relevant department at Bangladesh Bank told bdnews24.com that offshore banking units would now be able to supply dollars to the domestic banking system whenever needed.

“This creates scope for banks to access more dollars, which should increase the supply of foreign currency across the banking sector,” added the official, who declined to be named.

“As dollar availability increases, competition among banks to sell dollars should also rise. That, in turn, could allow businesses to obtain dollars at a lower cost.”

New US tariffs could slash Canada's fourth quarter growth to below 1%, reflecting a new wave of uncertainty that threatens to hit investment ​and hiring, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said today (21 September).

Macklem said that as ‌the bank pondered what to do with rates, it had to take into consideration the fact that while slower growth could drag inflation downwards, the Middle East conflict could push it up as oil prices soar.

Canada's annual inflation ​rate is 3%, well above the bank's 2% target, and it could edge up ​if oil prices remain near $100 a barrel, he said.

Canada's economy rebounded in the ⁠second quarter and posted annualized growth of 3.3%, as businesses and households started to adjust and ​plan investments and spending after almost 18 months of US tariffs.

But as a prospective trade deal ​collapsed between the two long term allies, the rift between them has widened with new tariffs from the US.

"The latest escalation could once again cause businesses to delay investment and hiring decision," Macklem said.

"If these new tariffs remain ​in place, growth could be roughly halved in the fourth quarter, to below 1%."

In July, before ​the tariffs were unveiled, the BoC had forecast a third quarter growth of 1.5% and economists say recent indicators ‌show ⁠it will most likely be around that range.

The Middle East conflict has not only impacted crude oil prices but also damaged gasoline and diesel capacity, piling up more pressure on the cost of fuel.

Macklem said that with no easing of the US-Iran conflict, the risk that inflation broadens and becomes ​more persistent has increased, ​although there is no ⁠evidence so far that the higher fuel costs are spreading to other goods or services.

"We don't want to raise our policy rate and restrain ​growth if inflationary pressures are contained. But nor do we want to ​be too slow ⁠to respond if inflationary pressures are being more persisent," he said.

Macklem said that since the start of the trade war between the US and Canada, the BoC was seeing evidence that businesses were reducing ⁠their exposure ​to tariffs by changing supply chains and changing sourcing strategies.

They ​are also adopting AI technology but its impact on productivity will take time to reflect.

That said, slower population growth and ​an aging population are also hitting labor supply and consumer demand, he added.

Bangladesh Bank has allowed Offshore Banking Units (OBUs) to buy and sell foreign currencies directly and conduct cross-currency swap transactions, giving them greater flexibility to raise cheaper foreign-currency funds and manage exchange-rate risks.

The move is expected to help OBUs optimise their funding costs and offer financing at more competitive rates, particularly for permissible trade and business activities.

In a circular issued today (21 September), the central bank said the new arrangement aims to facilitate legitimate customer transactions, improve foreign currency liquidity management, and strengthen the asset-liability management practices of OBUs.

Under the new rules, OBUs can carry out outright foreign currency purchase and sale transactions, as well as cross-currency swaps, with their respective Domestic Banking Units, other authorised dealers, other OBUs, and other legitimate counterparties.

BB said the facility will allow OBUs to access suitable foreign currency funding sources, optimise their funding structures, and manage currency exposures more efficiently.

However, such transactions must be directly linked to permissible customer transactions, funding requirements, settlement obligations, foreign currency liquidity management, asset-liability management, or foreign exchange risk management, the circular said.

The central bank has also advised OBUs to adopt prudent foreign currency funding strategies, including tapping lower-cost currency funding opportunities where feasible, and to use appropriate foreign exchange transactions or cross-currency swaps to hedge or manage related currency risks.

The decision brings OBU operations closer to internationally accepted treasury practices, giving offshore banking units greater flexibility in managing foreign currency liquidity and funding costs. It could also help lower the cost of financing for eligible trade-related activities by allowing OBUs to source foreign currency more efficiently.

Saudi Arabia has informed at least two European oil refining customers that they will not receive their usual crude oil allocations in October, as the escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupts global energy markets, reports Middle East Eye.

European refineries typically purchase Saudi crude under term contracts that guarantee regular monthly supplies. However, shipments can be cancelled under extraordinary circumstances under force majeure provisions, according to the report.

The development follows Qatar's extension earlier this month of force majeure on liquefied natural gas shipments until early November amid a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia had appeared relatively insulated from disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz because its East-West Pipeline connects the Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing the kingdom to bypass the strategic waterway.

The pipeline had enabled Saudi Arabia to export around two-thirds of its pre-war oil volumes, or about 4 million barrels per day, according to MEE.

However, a drone attack last week disabled the pipeline. Saudi authorities said the attack originated from Iraq, where militias aligned with Iran are active.

The Houthis have also claimed attacks targeting the port of Yanbu and other facilities operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco.

Saudi Arabia has since begun rerouting oil shipments through the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline after the Houthis declared an embargo on Saudi shipping, the report said.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose following the Houthi offensive in Yemen, which has placed the group in control of the country's Red Sea coastline.

The Houthis have also targeted Saudi Arabia with drones and missiles as the kingdom carries out strikes against Houthi positions in Yemen.

Brent was trading at around $103 a barrel on Friday. However, energy analysts told MEE that the benchmark price does not fully reflect the physical cost of securing crude supplies, while prices for refined products such as diesel and jet fuel are even higher.

In the United States, which has been relatively insulated from the conflict because of its domestic energy production, diesel prices rose 7.7% over the past week, according to the report.

Saudi Arabia led a coalition of Arab states that intervened in Yemen after the Houthis seized large parts of northwestern Yemen about a decade ago.

A ceasefire was reached in 2022 between the Houthis and the internationally recognised Yemeni government, backed by Saudi Arabia, after which Riyadh sought to reduce its involvement in the conflict.

However, Saudi Arabia has maintained an air and sea blockade of Houthi-controlled ports and airports.

The Houthis have said lifting the blockade is a condition for ending their embargo on Saudi Arabia.

A visiting delegation from China's Yunnan Province met with Bangladeshi officials and business leaders in Dhaka on Sunday to explore avenues for expanding bilateral trade, investment, and broader economic cooperation between Bangladesh and Yunnan.

Mohammad Hasan Arif, Vice Chairman and Chief Executive (Additional Secretary) of the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), presided over the meeting.

The discussions focused on strengthening existing trade ties, creating new market opportunities, establishing business connections, and expanding mutual trade prospects between Bangladesh and Yunnan Province, reports UNB.

Led by the Department of Commerce of Yunnan Province, the Chinese delegation comprised government officials, entrepreneurs, and business leaders representing various sectors.

The meeting emphasized facilitating direct communication and business partnerships between Yunnan-based enterprises and Bangladeshi government agencies, trade associations, and private sector stakeholders.

Members of the Yunnan delegation expressed keen interest in conducting market research, appointing local agents and distributors, exploring import-export opportunities in agricultural and agro-based products, utilizing logistics services, and gaining insights into Bangladesh’s commercial infrastructure, including Chittagong Port.

The Yunnan Department of Commerce proposed several initiatives, including assessing market demand in Bangladesh for construction materials, engineering products, and agricultural machinery. Their proposals also highlighted visiting local trade exhibitions and commercial markets, building distribution and logistics networks, and expanding exports of agricultural and light industrial goods.

Additionally, the meeting explored creating stronger trade linkages between Yunnan’s product offerings and Bangladeshi textiles and specialized agricultural products.

EPB Vice Chairman Mohammad Hasan Arif underscored the need to complement government-level cooperation with robust Business-to-Business (B2B) interactions, market integration, and strategic commercial partnerships to make economic ties between Bangladesh and Yunnan more dynamic and fruitful.

Both sides agreed to maintain continuous communication across sectors of mutual interest to establish effective commercial links between the business communities of Bangladesh and Yunnan Province.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has made online VAT return filing mandatory for 11 goods and services to improve compliance, boost revenue collection and bring VAT documentation under a digital system.

Eight are from the manufacturing sector -- cigarettes, mobile phones, medicines, beverages, cement, MS products, tiles, and paints and varnishes. Three are from the services sector -- insurance, banking and non-banking financial services, and mobile financial services.

A general order to this effect was issued by the VAT department of the NBR yesterday.

Nearly 40 percent of the revenue board’s total VAT collection comes from these sectors, according to the NBR.

The measure is aimed at bringing the submission of relevant VAT documents under a digital system.

Under the order, if a registered person is directly involved in supplying any of the listed goods or services to another person, the requirement will also apply to that person’s activities.

Any previous order issued by the NBR relating to the mandatory online submission of relevant documents will be considered cancelled once the new order comes into effect.

However, the NBR will retain the authority to amend the list of goods and services covered by the order whenever necessary. The order took effect immediately.

The move comes as the tax authority expands digital processes for VAT administration amid lower VAT collection, seeking to bring more business transactions and compliance activities under online systems.

Md Azizur Rahman, member (VAT Policy) of the NBR, said the move to bring VAT returns online was aimed at gradually incorporating all sectors into the e-VAT system.

“We want to bring all sectors under digital coverage. We are doing it gradually,” he said, adding that filing is not yet mandatory for those outside the listed sectors, as there is no official gazette and commissioners are simply taking the initiative.

The NBR is initially bringing around 11 sectors under mandatory online filing, citing a provision under Section 64 of this year’s budget.

“Among them are production sectors -- many already submit online, but we will bring the entire sector fully online. We may bring another 10 sectors next month, and gradually cover as many as possible by June,” he said.

“At present, we receive around 60 percent of returns online on average, but the remaining 40 percent isn’t coming in. For the sectors we’re bringing in now, submission will have to be 100 percent online. The VAT department will ensure that through whatever method is necessary.”

Faysal Ahmed, a chartered accountant, said the move may boost online VAT return filing and strengthen the NBR’s capacity for VAT compliance and data verification.

“As a result, businesses will need to ensure proper reconciliation and data accuracy among their sales, purchases, input-output VAT and VAT return information. This will play a positive role in the government’s VAT collection,” he said.

US factory production unexpectedly fell in August and higher oil prices and rising interest rates could offset some of the support from an artificial intelligence buildout, likely keeping activity moderate for the rest of the year.

The decline in output, reported by the Federal Reserve on Friday, followed seven straight months of increases.

The US central bank on Wednesday raised interest rates for the first time in three years and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in the months ahead.

Oil prices are hovering above $100 a barrel with no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

“Looking ahead, we think manufacturing output will rise a little further over coming months, but will fail to match the pace set in the first half of this year,” said Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“Some manufacturers likely will find that demand softens as they pass on higher energy prices to consumers.”

Manufacturing output dropped 0.3 percent last month following an unrevised 0.2 percent rise in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production would increase 0.3 percent.

Output advanced 0.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in August, a modest increase that, according to some economists, indicated the Trump administration’s aggressive trade policy had not had the desired effect of rejuvenating the nation’s industrial base.

Production in the sector, which accounts for about 9.4 percent of the economy, received a boost in prior months as businesses rushed orders to avoid shortages and higher prices from the escalation of the war in the Middle East.

The decline in August was led by a 0.5 percent drop in the production of long-lasting manufactured goods. Motor vehicles and parts production decreased 1.2 percent, notching a second straight monthly decline.

Output of computers and peripheral equipment fell 1.4 percent, but was up 5.5 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Production of communications equipment increased 0.8 percent.

Though the output of semiconductors and related electronic components dipped 0.1 percent, this category was up 12.4 percent from a year ago.

The AI spending spree has cushioned the blow from import tariffs on manufacturing.

Some economists are still betting on a strong manufacturing performance this year, despite a sharp rise in longer-dated US Treasury yields in recent weeks and the Fed’s decision to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75 percent-4.00 percent range.

POSSIBLE TAILWIND FROM HIGHER DEFENSE SPENDING

“We still look for manufacturing activity to pick up through next year, and the AI infrastructure buildout is a key reason for our sanguine outlook,” said Bernard Yaros, lead US economist at Oxford Economics.

“The demand case for AI still seems strong enough to shrug off higher-for-longer rates and increased geopolitical risk. Greater defense spending will also act as another tailwind.”

Restocking by businesses that have run down inventories for five straight quarters to meet robust demand could also provide a lift to manufacturing, though some economists argued that trend could be overshadowed by the drag from rising costs.

Production of nondurable goods was unchanged after falling 0.4 percent in July.

Rises in output at textile mills as well as for apparel and leather products were offset by declines in the production of plastics and rubber goods, and petroleum and coal.

“Factory output shows the first signs of a slowdown which could worsen if the geopolitical headwinds intensify and diesel fuel prices do not come back down,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

“Soaring energy prices are costly for industry and higher diesel prices may start to chip away at the manufacturing renaissance picture painted by White House economic officials.”

Mining production edged up 0.1 percent last month, matching the rise in July.

Oil and gas well drilling increased 0.9 percent after accelerating by 5.2 percent in July.

Utilities production shot up 1.8 percent after climbing 0.5 percent in July.

Overall industrial production was unchanged last month after gaining 0.2 percent in July.

Industrial output advanced 1.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in August.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector, a measure of how fully firms are using their resources, was unchanged at 76.3 percent in August.

It is 3.1 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average.

The operating rate for the manufacturing sector fell 0.3 percentage points to 75.7 percent.

It is 2.5 percentage points below its long-run average.

“There is no evidence here that tariffs or anything are generating an influx of new jobs in manufacturing and industry,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

Envoy Textile and Apex Footwear have scheduled board meetings to consider their audited financial statements for FY26, including potential dividend declarations for shareholders.

According to Dhaka Stock Exchange disclosures, Envoy Textile's board will meet on 27 September at 3pm, while Apex Footwear's meeting is scheduled for 26 September at 5:20pm.

The boards will consider the audited financial statements for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2026, along with other matters.

Envoy Textile's earnings weakened in the third quarter of FY26, with earnings per share (EPS) falling to Tk1.54 in January-March from Tk2.44 a year earlier. For the nine months through March, EPS declined to Tk5.89 from Tk6.03.

However, its net operating cash flow per share (NOCFPS) rose sharply to Tk16.85 during July 2025-March 2026 from Tk3.27 a year earlier. Net asset value (NAV) per share stood at Tk61.21 at the end of March, up from Tk58.32 at the end of June 2025.

Apex Footwear, meanwhile, reported higher earnings, with quarterly EPS rising to Tk0.54 from Tk0.49 and nine-month EPS increasing to Tk4.54 from Tk3.56.

The company attributed the improvement mainly to higher net sales revenue and profit before tax.

Its NOCFPS, however, fell to Tk122.92 during the nine months from Tk140.95 a year earlier, mainly due to higher payments to suppliers, employees and others amid increased material procurement costs, direct labour expenses, utilities and income tax payments.

Apex Footwear's NAV per share rose to Tk351.89 at the end of March from Tk349.35 at the end of June 2025, mainly reflecting changes in assets and liabilities.

Foreign investors have continued to offload their holdings in Marico Bangladesh Limited, an India-based multinational personal care manufacturer, selling around 3.15 lakh shares worth approximately Tk85 crore between March and August this year.

According to Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) data, foreign investors' stake in the company fell from 1.91% in March to 0.91% in August, a decline of 1% point in the company's total outstanding shares.

The monthly figures show a steady sell-off, with foreign holdings declining to 1.85% in April, 1.80% in May, 1.53% in June and 0.99% in July before reaching 0.91% in August.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund and Marico's primary foreign shareholder, also reduced its stake to 0.52% in the first half of 2026, from 0.67% in 2025.

Market insiders said Marico, once considered a preferred stock among listed multinational companies, has seen its appeal among foreign investors weaken, mainly due to macroeconomic headwinds rather than any significant deterioration in the company's underlying performance.

Despite the recent sell-off, Marico still has the third-highest foreign ownership among listed multinational companies, behind British American Tobacco Bangladesh and Bata Shoe Company (Bangladesh).

As of August, sponsors and directors held 90% of Marico's shares, while institutional investors held 6.72%, the public 2.37% and foreign shareholders 0.91%.

The foreign exit coincides with a recent quarterly earnings dip. Marico Bangladesh, producer of the popular Parachute brand, reported a 12.38% year-on-year drop in net profit to Tk170.47 crore for the April–June quarter of 2026, its first quarterly profit decline in four years. Revenue, however, grew 4% to Tk531.86 crore during the period.

Management attributed the profit contraction to rising raw material prices and lower finance income.

Earnings per share (EPS) fell to Tk54.12 from Tk61.77, while net operating cash flow per share dropped to Tk20.28 from Tk66.73 due to higher supplier payments.

Meanwhile, net asset value per share rose to Tk146.14 as of 30 June 2026, up from Tk92.02 in March.

Despite the profit decline, the board declared a massive 500% interim cash dividend (Tk50 per share), continuing its trend of high dividend payouts to repatriate profits to its Indian parent company, Marico Limited.

Expatriate Bangladeshis sent over US$1.87 billion in remittances during the first 19 days of September 2026, marking a slight monthly increase compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, according to the latest Bangladesh Bank (BB) data.

During the corresponding period from September 1 to September 19 in 2025, the country received $1.86 billion in remittances.

The latest figures reflect a 0.4 per cent growth for the month up to September 19 in the current fiscal year (FY 2026–27), reports UNB.

Between September 17 and September 19 alone, remittance inflows stood at $130 million.

The overall fiscal year-to-date performance shows stronger upward momentum.

From July 1 to September 19 of the current fiscal year (FY 2026–27), total remittance inflows reached $7.70 billion.

This represents a 13.8 per cent yearly growth compared to the $6.76 billion received during the same period in FY 2025–26 (July 1 to September 19, 2025).

OpenAI expects to burn through $278 billion in cash between 2026 and 2030 as it ramps up spending on computing power and infrastructure, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing a company presentation seen by the newspaper.

The projection highlights OpenAI’s funding needs as it seeks fresh investment, with the FT reporting earlier this week that the ChatGPT maker had held talks with investors that could value it at about $1.2 trillion ahead of a potential listing.

OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO in June, but CEO Sam Altman said on Saturday the company would not go public in 2026 because of concerns about AI safety.

OpenAI forecasts negative free cash flow of $278 billion over the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 while investing aggressively to secure computing capacity needed to train and run its AI models, FT said.

The AI firm expects revenue to increase tenfold over the same period, rising from $36 billion this year to $350 billion in 2030, the FT said, adding that OpenAI anticipates generating a cumulative $840 billion in revenue through the end of the decade.

OpenAI forecasts spending about $856 billion on computing power and infrastructure by the end of 2030, its largest expense category, the report said. The FT said the company raised $122 billion in March at an $852 billion valuation but is on track to exhaust that cash by 2028.

OpenAI could not immediately be reached for comment outside regular business hours.

The Indian deputy high commissioner has called for stronger trade and investment ties between Bangladesh and India, urging both countries to remove tariff and non-tariff barriers and build closer links between businesses.

Pawan Badhe made the call during a courtesy meeting with Md Fazlul Hoque, administrator of the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), at the federation’s Gulshan office in Dhaka yesterday.

Pawan proposed forming a business-to-business task force to strengthen cooperation between the private sectors of the two countries.

He said his office was in regular contact with the governments of Bangladesh and India to speed up the formation of the task force. He also sought support from Bangladesh’s private sector, led by the FBCCI.

Pawan also said visa procedures for Bangladeshi travellers to India had been eased and that the Indian high commission was issuing numerous visas every day.

The FBCCI administrator said a joint task force could help boost bilateral trade and deepen cooperation between the two countries.

He urged businesses and entrepreneurs from Bangladesh and India to work together to increase investment and trade in emerging and promising sectors.

The meeting comes as businesses in both countries seek to expand commercial ties and address barriers to cross-border trade.

US farmers have just begun harvesting another huge corn crop, following last year’s bumper harvest. But that apparent abundance in the top corn exporter masks a considerably less comfortable picture of world grain supply.

Global corn consumption is forecast to exceed production by nearly 30 million metric tons in 2026/27. According to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released last Friday, the deficit would be the largest in more than three decades.

Those supply concerns have already made an impression on prices. Corn, wheat and soybean futures have risen significantly in recent months, with Chicago corn staging a record 16 percent rally in August alone, a time when prices are often under seasonal pressure. So why are global grain supplies tightening when US farmers are producing so much? Part of the answer lies elsewhere in the world, and even outside grains themselves.

GLOBAL GRAIN CUSHION THINS

Combined corn and wheat production among major exporting countries is set to fall sharply from last year, even as US farmers begin bringing in their second-largest corn crop on record.

The projected year-on-year decline across those exporters is the largest by volume since 1993/94 and the steepest percentage drop since 2012/13, a season marked by heavy US drought losses.

Although crop prospects have recently improved for some key wheat exporters, that has not erased the broader setback in exportable grain supplies. And beyond the major exporters, total world wheat production, like corn, is also expected to fall short of consumption in 2026/27.

Export availability is another concern: combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat stocks are projected by the USDA to hit a 33-year high, as the war between the two leading suppliers continues to disrupt Black Sea trade. And the challenge may extend beyond this season.

GRAINS LOSING THE ACREAGE BATTLE

Over the last quarter-century, the world’s major agricultural exporters have dramatically expanded oilseed plantings, while grain acreage among key suppliers has stagnated.

Harvested area across major oilseed and oilseed product exporters in 2026/27 is more than double its 2000/01 level. Major grain exporters have expanded acreage by just 5 percent.

A closer look reveals that corn acreage has expanded substantially over that period, though wheat acres have contracted. In other words, the acreage constraint is not uniform across grains, but the overall contrast with oilseeds is unmistakable.

Yet grain demand continues to grow. Yield improvements have carried an enormous share of the burden, leaving less room for weather disappointments in years when grain acreage is relatively small.

Oilseeds are on the other side of the coin. Expanding acreage, particularly in Brazil, has been central to the explosion in global soybean production. But even there, acreage growth may be slowing.

BRAZIL HITS THE BRAKES

Brazil’s statistics body, Conab, on Tuesday issued its first 2026/27 soybean outlook, forecasting yet another record crop in the world’s leading exporter. But only fractionally so.

Brazilian farmers are expected to expand soybean plantings at the slowest rate in 20 years as weaker margins, expensive credit and fertilizer costs curb their appetite for more acres.

Add in what experts say could be the strongest El Niño on record, which threatens yields in top-producing Mato Grosso, and Brazil could be unusually vulnerable to an output decline.

The market isn’t used to that. For years, it could count on Brazil adding substantial acreage almost regardless of what happened elsewhere, often diluting the impact of year-to-year yield swings.

The grain story extends to Brazil, too. Conab sharply raised its 2025/26 domestic corn consumption estimate on stronger ethanol demand, meaning less of the country’s huge crop is available for export.

Brazil is expected to harvest another record corn crop in 2026/27, but the demand shift is a reminder that bigger crops do not necessarily translate into equally large gains in exportable supply.

SOLVABLE IN 2027?

None of this necessarily points to the kind of grain scarcity seen in 2012. The US still has a respectable corn supply buffer, Brazil remains capable of producing record crops and wheat is harvested around the world throughout the year.

But the point still stands: global grain stocks are a lot less comfortable than a year ago, and the recent rally makes clear that markets have noticed.

Exceptionally weak wheat prices helped US farmers go big on corn and soybeans in 2026, pushing all-wheat plantings to a record low. Wheat prices have since recovered, and the competition for next year’s acres is already heating up.

That could make another huge US corn planting slightly trickier in 2027, just when the global balance sheet may need it most.