Oil prices fell on Tuesday as resilient Middle Eastern crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile release eased supply concerns, though lingering security risks in the region capped further losses.

Brent crude futures were down 83 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $99.49 a barrel at around 0650 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1, or 1.1 percent, to $88.43 a barrel.

"Shipping data shows regional crude exports actually exceeded pre-war levels on several days in late September. Alternative routes and logistical adjustments have somehow allowed producers to keep barrels moving despite the disruption around Hormuz," said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova.

"However, calling this a full normalisation of supply doesn't look justified quite yet ... There have been renewed attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz, and the number of incidents has increased in recent days. This means that while barrels are still moving, the cost, insurance, routing, and security risks of moving them remain elevated."

Gulf oil flows excluding Iran surged to over 81 percent of pre-war levels in September, data showed, led by a recovery in Saudi exports despite attacks on the kingdom's oil infrastructure and escalating Iranian attacks on regional shipping, while Iranian exports fell to zero due to a US blockade.

While the market remains nervous about potential supply disruptions from the region, Gulf oil producers continue to adapt to the region's situation, ING analysts said in a Tuesday note.

"Kuwait said that it is producing at 75 percent of pre-war levels, while the Saudis also cut the official selling price of their Arab Light into Asia for November loadings, a sign of an improving supply picture," they said.

Further easing supply concerns, G7 countries agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and pledged to refrain from energy export restrictions after pressure from US President Donald Trump.

The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen continued to fuel concerns over potential disruptions to supply from the region's largest oil exporter amid a stalemate in US-Iran talks.

Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces staged a lightning advance on Monday to retake the coast around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait up to the city of Mocha.

In response, the Houthis said they had attacked key locations in Saudi Arabia, including an Aramco refinery in Rabigh. The claims could not be immediately verified.

Inter-agency coordination must be ensured to facilitate the country's economic growth through the capital market, said the special assistant to the prime minister on investment and capital market affairs.

Tanvir Shahriar Ghani was speaking at a World Investor Week programme on Monday, organised by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Bangladesh (ICAB) at its office in the capital.

He made the call against the backdrop of regulatory decisions affecting investors of listed companies.

Every organisation in Bangladesh works in isolation, said Mr Tanvir. Bangladesh Bank does its own thing while the securities regulator, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) and the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (IDRA) run their operations without bothering about the impacts on entities that fall under separate regulatory bodies.

Banks as listed companies are also regulated by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) apart from the central bank. If the primary regulator issues a circular without any coordination with the BSEC, shareholders may be affected.

"This concept of a non-integrated economy—where everyone acts as they please—doesn't work. In a $500 billion economy, it simply doesn't work," said Mr Tanvir, a former managing director of Goldman Sachs in London.

He said the central bank's exchange rate policy affected everyone, including exporters and importers. Similarly, the income tax authority needs to communicate with all businesses and other regulatory bodies before making a decision, to avert adverse impacts of taxation on the same financial ecosystem.

In his speech, BSEC Chairman Masud Khan stressed the need for good corporate governance, as it differentiates good companies from the rest.

He said his commission was moving toward making corporate governance rules, and that it had received a great deal of feedback on the draft rules.

The BSEC chief said the delayed IPO (initial public offering) process was one of the major reasons behind the drought in the pipeline of new scrips. Even the approval process for a bond issuance used to take one and a half years.

Apart from making efforts to further ease the public issue rules, the commission has cleared bonds worth Tk 35 billion in the last two months.

"And I can tell you one thing: There is absolutely no reason for an IPO to take more than three months—nowhere in the world," said Mr Khan.

Arif Khan, vice chairman of Shanta Asset Management, said different quarters wrongly blamed the securities regulator for the valuation of a company, although the valuation depended on the issuer company and investors.

Highlighting the substantial amounts of capital raised through IPOs in different countries, including India, during the last 30 months, when the Bangladesh capital market saw not a single IPO, Mr Arif Khan emphasised market-based valuation to enhance the depth of the market.

ICAB President Sabbir Ahmed moderated the programme, titled "Building Investor Confidence: the role of professional bodies in audit, reporting, governance, and risk management".

Japanese motor vehicle giant Toyota Tsusho Corporation will begin developing a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) manufacturing industry in Bangladesh next year, with full-scale production expected to start by 2029, the Prime Minister's Office said.

The announcement came after a meeting between Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and a high-level Toyota Tsusho delegation led by Vice Chairman Ichiro Kashitani today (6 October).

According to the Prime Minister's Office, Toyota Bangladesh will begin work in 2027 to establish HEV production at an economic zone in Bangladesh under a "with Bangladesh, for Bangladesh" development philosophy. Full-scale production is expected to begin by 2029.
The visiting delegation also said Toyota Bangladesh is expanding its distribution network to all divisional-level locations to make the company's services and operations more accessible across the country.

Toyota Tsusho also expressed interest in contributing to human resource development by creating technical and vocational training opportunities for young people, improving skills and developing a workforce suited to future industries.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman welcomed Toyota's interest in expanding its investment and operations, saying the government was working to ensure a stable, competitive and investment-friendly environment for local and foreign investors.

He said the government was committed to providing foreign investors with necessary policy support, infrastructure and other facilities.

The prime minister also highlighted Bangladesh's potential in waste-to-energy generation and renewable energy, and pledged government support if Toyota Tsusho is interested in investing in these sectors.

Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir, Prime Minister's Economic and Planning Adviser Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, Foreign Affairs State Minister Humayun Kobir, Science and Technology Adviser Rehan Asif Asad, and Prime Minister's Special Assistant for Foreign Employment in the Asia-Pacific region Md Shakirul Islam Khan, among others, attended the meeting.

Toyota Tsusho Mobility Division CEO Shigeru Harada, Toyota Bangladesh Ltd President Premmit Singh and other senior company officials were also present.

Bangladesh's economy has yet to deliver the rebound expected after the return of political stability, the World Bank warned in its latest "Bangladesh Development Update", sharply downgrading the country's growth forecast for the current fiscal year.

The global lender slashed Bangladesh's FY27 real GDP growth projection by 1.2 percentage points to 3.4%, down from 4.6% estimated in April. The new forecast falls below the 3.45% growth recorded during the FY20 pandemic shock and lags behind the government's 6.5% target.

The update shows Bangladesh's projected growth is the lowest in South Asia after Afghanistan. By contrast, South Asia's economy is forecasted to grow to 6.7% in 2027.

Asked for a reaction to the report yesterday, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury offered a brief response: "Wait and see."

Economic activity and investment slowed during the interim government's 18-month tenure due to political uncertainty and law-and-order disruptions. While businesses expected a turnaround following the return of an elected government, the World Bank noted that structural bottlenecks continue to stall recovery about eight months into the new administration.

The update said the downgrade reflects "a more protracted drag from energy shortages, banking sector weakness, subdued credit growth and tighter fiscal constraints than previously anticipated".

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist of the World Bank's Dhaka office, said Bangladesh's economic slowdown is the result of persistent weaknesses in several key drivers of growth.

He added that two priorities should guide the response: preventing existing problems from worsening and gradually addressing those that have already emerged.

Fahmida Khatun, distinguished fellow at the CPD, said weak investment, high business costs, uncertainty, and persistent banking-sector weaknesses are weighing on economic growth.

In response to the issues, she called for continued reforms in the banking sector.

Export growth to remain weak

The World Bank also warned that export growth is expected to remain weak.

"Exports of readymade garments will be slowed in the short term by weak demand in the EU, and in the longer term by increased competition for market share," the report said.

Last month, the Asian Development Bank also cut its FY27 growth forecast for Bangladesh to 4%, from 4.5% projected in July and 4.7% in April. Both the World Bank and ADB forecasts are well below the government's 6.5% GDP growth target for the current fiscal year.

In its new update, the World Bank estimated that Bangladesh's GDP growth slowed to 3.4% in the previous FY26 fiscal year, marking the third consecutive year of deceleration.

'The time to act is now'

Bangladesh's economic growth has slowed since 2023 amid persistent structural constraints and global uncertainty, the World Bank said. Longstanding financial-sector vulnerabilities, weak revenue mobilisation, energy bottlenecks and declining public investment have eroded the economy's resilience and constrained its growth potential.

Jean Pesme, World Bank division director for Bangladesh and Bhutan, said to avert economic downturn and return to an inclusive growth path, fast and bold reforms are needed in the banking sector, domestic revenue mobilisation, and energy sector.

"The country needs to respond with urgency and speed up the reforms essential for protecting the poor and creating more and better jobs. The time to act is now," he said.

Pesme identified the banking sector as a major risk, with the non-performing loan ratio rising to 32.2% in 2026 from around 20% in December 2024.

Weak bank capitalisation is another concern, he said, calling for asset quality reviews to be completed and viable banks to be restructured and recapitalised at fair value.

Private investment has also weakened significantly, with private-sector credit falling to a nearly 30-year low. The weak economic environment and uncertainty are discouraging businesses from investing and expanding, according to Pesme.

Pesme also highlighted weak revenue mobilisation, calling for modernising and digitalising the tax system, broadening the tax base and improving tax-expenditure management.

On energy, he urged stronger transmission and distribution systems, transparent pricing, better governance and greater use of renewable energy.

2.1m more poor in FY26

Poverty and inequality increased in Bangladesh in FY26 as a prolonged economic slowdown, weak labour demand and persistent inflation eroded household welfare, said the report.

Poverty at the $3-a-day international poverty line rose an estimated 1.1 percentage points to 10.1% in FY26, leaving about 2.1 million more people in poverty than in FY25.

National poverty also rose for the fourth year, reaching 22.5% in 2026, up from 18.7% in 2022. It is projected to rise further to 22.8% in FY27 before edging down to 22.4% in FY28.

The Gini index, a measure of income inequality, increased by 0.9 points to 34.9 in FY26, leaving it 4 points above its 2022 level. The deterioration is expected to continue in the near term. Inequality is projected to widen, with the Gini index expected to reach 35.6 by FY28.

The deterioration is expected to continue, with the index projected to reach 35.6 by FY28.

Targeted support could lift 2.85m out of poverty

Weak labour demand and persistent inflation have reduced household incomes and, leaving many families vulnerable to future economic shocks, the World Bank said.

Although Bangladesh spends about 3.5% of GDP annually on subsidies and social protection, nearly half of the country's poorest households receive no safety-net support, it said.

Effective deployment of the Family Card alone could protect an estimated 1.58 million people from poverty. Combining it with improved targeting tools and consolidating cash and food assistance could lift an additional 2.85 million people out of poverty, the report added.

Jean Pesme called for a gradual shift from broad-based subsidies towards targeted support to better protect vulnerable households.

Inflation to stay high, wage growth negative

Inflation in Bangladesh is projected to remain elevated at 8.6% in FY27 before gradually moderating over the medium term, according to the World Bank.

The pace of moderation is expected to remain slow in the short term, weighed down by high domestic energy prices, persistent supply-side constraints and a less restrictive monetary policy stance, the lender said.

Lower global commodity prices, a stable exchange rate and favourable base effects could support a gradual decline in inflation over the medium term.

Maintaining prudent monetary policy and avoiding inflationary financing to support the banking sector will be critical to keeping inflation under control.

Real wage growth among low-paid workers remained negative in FY26. Non-food inflation above 9% and higher energy and utility costs continued to erode workers' purchasing power.

What economists recommend

Zahid Hussain said banking, energy, trade and logistics, ports, transport and law and order are among the sectors currently holding back economic activity.

However, the energy crisis and high non-performing loans are not new problems, he said. "Therefore, the first task is to stop further deterioration. The banking system, energy supply and other basic business conditions must improve to revive investment."

The economist said weak growth is limiting job creation, which in turn is constraining wage and income growth. Prolonged high inflation is further eroding people's purchasing power.

"Growth is weak, employment is limited, incomes are not rising and inflation remains high. This combination reduces people's real purchasing power," he said.

Reducing poverty requires more than social assistance, he said. It needs addressing fundamental weaknesses in growth, investment, employment, banking and energy supply.

Fahmida Khatun said, "Private-sector investment remains weak as the cost of doing business is high and global geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty," she said.

Slow implementation of public investment and weaker export demand are also holding back the economy, while prolonged low growth has contributed to persistent poverty, she said.

"Prolonged inflation has eroded people's purchasing power, particularly among low-income households, while wage growth has not been sufficient to offset rising prices," Fahmida said.

To address the issues, she said viable banks should have restructuring plans, professional management and clear deadlines, while non-viable banks should undergo orderly resolution to protect depositors and minimise the cost to taxpayers.

"Loan recovery must improve, and large defaulters shouldn't receive special treatment. Stronger governance, transparent reporting, and accountability for lending decisions are also essential," added the economist.

2nd lowest growth in South Asia

The World Bank, in its "South Asia Economic Update", said the region's growth has proved more resilient than expected despite elevated energy prices.

India is forecast to lead the region, with growth of more than 7% in FY27, supported by robust domestic demand and strong exports despite global headwinds.

Bhutan is projected to be the region's second-fastest-growing economy, with growth of 6.7%. Sri Lanka's GDP is projected to grow 4.2%, although its recovery remains uneven.

Maldives' economy is expected to grow 2.2% in 2026 as tourism proves more resilient than expected. Its 2027 growth forecast, however, has been cut by 3.1 percentage points to 4.1%.

Pakistan's growth is projected to remain broadly stable at 3.8% in FY27, as elevated commodity and energy prices weigh on services and industry.

Nepal's growth is projected to slow to 3.7%, as flood damage to energy infrastructure weighs on industry, while disruptions to trade, transport and tourism constrain services.

Afghanistan, the region's slowest-growing economy, is projected to grow 3.3% in FY27.

Around 2,200 small and medium-sized NGOs in Bangladesh could be particularly vulnerable as foreign funding declines, with grant-reliant organisations providing social services facing the greatest risk, according to a study by the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS).
Unlike NGOs with microcredit operations, these organisations have no lending income to fall back on when foreign funding declines.

The study says the growth of NGOs without a lending arm is significant because they have no lending surplus to cushion a contraction in foreign grants.
A BIDS survey found that two-thirds of grant-dependent organisations reported significant damage from funding cuts
A BIDS survey found that two-thirds of grant-dependent organisations reported significant damage from funding cuts, with their budgets falling by an average of 40 percent. Among NGOs with microcredit operations, the average decline was 12 percent.

The findings were presented at a seminar titled “Beyond Foreign Dependence: The Future of NGO Financing in Bangladesh” at BIDS yesterday.

Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury called for stronger institutional partnerships among the government, NGOs and the private sector to create sustainable financing for the sector.

He urged time-bound measures to help NGOs secure alternative funding as development assistance declines worldwide.

“We do not just want to listen; we want to provide an effective response,” he said, stressing the need for an integrated framework covering human development, local culture and private-sector participation.

He said NGOs play an important role in taking government services to grassroots communities and that their contribution in areas such as the creative economy should receive stronger institutional and policy support.

The BIDS study says the decline in foreign aid is likely to be gradual but lasting. Development assistance from wealthy countries fell 23 percent in real terms in 2025, the biggest annual decline on record.

The full impact has not yet reached Bangladesh as funds for previously approved projects are still being released. Around Tk 10,143 crore in foreign grants was released in 2025-26.

Foreign grant releases peaked at $955 million in 2018-19, fell 31 percent to $655 million, and recovered to $838 million in 2025-26. However, new project approvals fell from 2,061 in 2021-22 to 1,654 in 2025-26, indicating a weakening pipeline.

As funding shrinks, organisations are likely to cut staff and programmes first, potentially causing essential social services to disappear.

The study also warns that grant cuts could push NGOs towards “mission drift”, as they shift towards microcredit to generate income while schools, clinics and community programmes are cut.

It argues that the solution is not simply to find new donors. Instead, the government should contract NGOs to deliver services where they can do so more effectively.

NGOs can reach remote households and understand local needs, while the government can provide financing, regulation and infrastructure. Joint delivery could therefore reduce the cost of providing services.

The Public Procurement Rules 2025 allow NGOs to participate in public service delivery, but the provision is rarely used. The study recommends clear guidelines, an open list of qualified NGOs eligible for government procurement and CSR funds, dedicated financing windows through organisations such as the Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation, clearer CSR rules, and legal recognition and tax benefits for social businesses.

However, alternative financing is unlikely to fully replace foreign grants. Bank CSR spending fell to Tk 345 crore in 2025, while social businesses may cover only 15-25 percent of an NGO’s budget. Innovative financing such as bonds is also difficult for smaller NGOs because it generally requires loan portfolios, collateral or strong balance sheets.

At the seminar, the minister also stressed developing local products, saying traditional crafts such as shital pati need modern design, value addition and better marketing to reach international markets.

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He also said projects should meet four conditions -- value for money, return on investment, employment or entrepreneurship creation, and environmental protection.

“No project will be approved if these four conditions are not met,” he said.

Among others, Zonayed Abdur Rahim Saki, state minister for planning; SM Shakil Akhter, secretary of the Planning Division; AK Enamul Haque, director general of BIDS; and Asif Saleh, executive director of BRAC, also addressed the seminar.

Sharp spikes in food and energy prices will likely become more common, the International Monetary Fund said, warning such crises drive inflation expectations higher for longer, worsen poverty and threaten economic stability.

IMF research released on Tuesday examined three decades of strategies used by governments to mitigate price surges, as well as a new economic model that accounts for the higher inflation experienced by poorer households, which spend a higher share of their budgets on daily necessities.

Large surges in prices of everyday necessities have been infrequent historically, especially at the global level, but they have been a recurring source of economic and social stress over the past five years following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and this year’s war in West Asia.

The new model showed a gap of 0.8 percentage point to the standard inflation measure, suggesting that 23 million more people fell below the extreme poverty line from 2021 to 2024 than previously calculated.

“In a nutshell, cost-of-living crises ... impact price stability, they reduce living standards and they worsen inequality,” said Chiara Maggi, the IMF economist who co-led the research published as Chapter 2 of the forthcoming World Economic Outlook, which will be released next week.

The IMF said last month that the global economy had weathered the energy shock caused by the war in West Asia better than feared and global economic output was still expected to expand by about 3 percent in 2026, but it cautioned that risks remained high.

That would match the IMF’s July forecast for 3.0 percent global growth, but falls short of average 3.5 percent growth in 2024 and 2025. The July forecast also assumed the war would wind down in mid-July, but Iran and the United States have both escalated their attacks in recent months, and the war has spilt over into neighbouring countries.

Inflation Expectations

The IMF said its data also showed that near- and medium-term inflation expectations increased significantly during cost-of-living crises, and they remained significantly above their pre-crisis level even three years after the onset of a crisis.

Five-year-ahead inflation expectations increased modestly initially, but remained elevated even three years after a crisis, which in turn could result in interest rate increases.

Targeted transfers were the best way for countries to protect the most vulnerable while preserving price signals, the IMF said. Actions aimed at suppressing prices, including price controls and lower consumption taxes, could cost governments three to six times more money to implement, while producer subsidies could cost 22 times as much to roll out.

Broad measures could also become less effective if many countries implemented subsidies at the same time, the IMF said. Producer subsidies, often favoured by developing countries, were particularly inefficient because they could lower costs for goods that were then exported, leaving domestic taxpayers to essentially subsidise consumers abroad, Maggi said.

Shantayanan Devarajan, a Georgetown University professor and former World Bank economist, said developing countries faced a serious crisis given the combined impact of higher oil prices, high debt levels, increased borrowing costs and the expected impact of this year’s super El Niño weather pattern.

“This is coming at a time when overall growth in low-income countries was at an all-time low,” he said in a videotaped discussion with Maggi that was also released on Tuesday. “Growth has slowed down tremendously.”

Some countries, including Egypt and Indonesia, had begun to shift away from broad subsidies toward targeted cash transfers, Devarajan said, urging countries to implement reforms aimed at boosting growth and limiting damage from the West Asia war.

“You know, they say, ‘Fix your roof when the sun is shining,’” he said. “When the crisis hits, it’s almost too late to introduce any of these measures, and the resistance is going to be huge.”

Bangladesh is yet again set to register weak economic growth of 3.4 percent in the current fiscal year, according to the World Bank, marking a fourth straight year of slowing growth amid a deepening energy crisis, financial sector vulnerabilities and global uncertainties.

The Washington-based lender expects only a slight recovery to 3.9 percent in fiscal year 2027-28, meaning Bangladesh is set to record the weakest growth among its South Asian neighbours in 2027, according to the World Bank’s latest economic update on Bangladesh and South Asia released yesterday.

The forecast is a further downgrade from the multilateral lender’s April estimate. It also marks a sharp break from past years when Bangladesh was seen as one of the region’s fastest-growing economies.

In the report, the World Bank said South Asia is forecast to accelerate from 6.8 percent in 2025 to 6.9 percent in 2026, after it revised up growth projections for most countries from its previous forecast.

According to the lender, higher energy prices have not interrupted the region’s momentum in consumption growth.

“The main exception is Bangladesh, whose forecast has been continually downgraded in recent years,” said the report.

Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 7.1 percent in fiscal 2022 but began slowing the following year. Growth fell below 4 percent in FY25, and the World Bank now expects the weakness to continue until FY28.

The lender said the return of political stability was expected to support a rebound in economic activity. But that recovery has yet to materialise, prompting it to cut the FY27 growth forecast by 1.2 percentage points to 3.4 percent.

“This deterioration reflects a more protracted drag from energy shortages, banking sector weakness, subdued credit growth, and tighter fiscal constraints than previously anticipated. Export growth is expected to remain weak,” said the global lender.

The slowdown is particularly evident in industry. Industrial output grew by just 2 percent in FY2025-26, while the industrial sector contracted in the third quarter for the first time since the pandemic.

Private investment has also been held back by uncertainty over energy supplies and vulnerabilities in the banking sector.

Private sector credit growth fell to a 33-year low of 4.5 percent in June 2026, reflecting weak business confidence, banking sector vulnerabilities and disruptions to energy supplies.

Government investment has also fallen to a historic low amid acute fiscal constraints and implementation challenges, weighing on domestic demand in the short term and the economy’s longer-term growth potential, the report said.

The World Bank said the slowdown reflected deeper structural weaknesses that were affecting investment, employment and productivity.

“Longstanding vulnerabilities in the financial sector, chronic weaknesses in domestic revenue mobilisation, persistent energy sector bottlenecks, and declining public investment have reduced the economy’s resilience and constrained its growth potential,” said the World Bank.

ENERGY CRISIS

The energy shortage has become a major constraint on factories and businesses.

Domestic gas production has declined, while imported liquefied natural gas now meets about a third of gas demand. Failures at floating LNG import terminals in Maheshkhali reduced supplies, forcing many factories to operate below capacity or suspend production.

The gas shortages also contributed to widespread load-shedding. The government ordered shopping malls to close early to reduce peak electricity demand, while petroleum import bills more than doubled in FY2025-26.

The World Bank noted that the outlook remains vulnerable to further shocks.

“The outlook is subject to significant downside risks,” it said in its latest Bangladesh Development Update.

Banking sector vulnerabilities, it said, have intensified and pose growing systemic risks.

HIGH INFLATION

Inflation has eased from its peak but remains well above the Bangladesh Bank’s target.

Average headline inflation fell from 10 percent in FY25 to 8.7 percent in FY26 and eased further to 8.3 percent in August this year, mainly because of lower food inflation.

The World Bank expects inflation to average 8.6 percent in FY27, citing higher domestic energy prices, supply constraints and continued money supply growth.

Underlying price pressures remain elevated. Despite persistent inflationary pressures, the Bangladesh Bank reduced its policy rate for the first time in six years in July 2026 and introduced targeted liquidity support for industry.

Higher public sector credit growth and stronger foreign asset inflows also supported a recovery in broad money (M2) growth.

Real wages for low-paid workers are still falling, the World Bank said.

JOBS, EXPORTS UNDER PRESSURE

The weak economy has also hit the labour market. Conditions deteriorated further in FY26 as subdued demand and energy shortages constrained hiring, especially in industry.

Factories closed, laid off workers and reduced operating hours, while weaker industrial activity spilled over into the services and agriculture sectors.

Female labour force participation fell from 42.8 percent in 2022 to 38.4 percent in 2024, as women who lost jobs in industry and services largely left the labour force.

Exports also remain a weak point.

The World Bank said ready-made garment exports would be constrained in the short term by weak demand in the European Union and, over the longer term, by greater competition for market share.

Overall exports fell 0.2 percent in FY2025-26. A survey by the United States Fashion Industry Association, cited by the World Bank, showed that US buyers’ use of Bangladesh as a sourcing base had fallen to around 78 percent from 88 percent a year earlier.

The World Bank expects the current account deficit to widen to 0.9 percent of GDP in FY27.

Remittances, however, provided some support to the external sector.

They rose 17.3 percent in FY2025-26 to a record $35.6 billion, limiting the current account deficit to 0.3 percent of GDP and helping rebuild foreign exchange reserves to more than $32 billion by August. The taka was broadly stable.

AI OFFERS OPPORTUNITY

The World Bank’s broader South Asia outlook sees the region’s growth accelerating from 6.8 percent in 2025 to 6.9 percent in 2026, with higher energy prices yet to interrupt momentum in consumption growth.

The report also examines how artificial intelligence could create new sources of growth across the region.

AI adoption in South Asia is rising but remains well behind advanced economies.

Even so, firms are increasingly using the technology to find new markets, while governments are deploying it in areas such as weather forecasting for smallholder farmers in India and AI-assisted retinal screening in Bangladesh.

“The adoption of AI has the potential to transform South Asia’s development trajectory by boosting labour productivity, expanding export opportunities, and improving public service delivery,” said Franziska Ohnsorge, World Bank Group chief economist for Asia.

“But to reap these benefits, governments need to address the foundational gaps that hold back adoption,” she added.

Johannes Zutt, World Bank vice president for South Asia, said the region needs to develop new sources of growth to maintain momentum and create jobs.

“South Asia has demonstrated remarkable resilience in a challenging global environment. But the region needs to invest in new drivers of growth to sustain momentum and create more jobs,” he said.

Johannes added, “To seize the opportunity provided by rapidly-growing AI global value chains, countries should invest in the skills, infrastructure, and enabling environment that allow workers and businesses to harness AI’s potential.”

Four years ago, the United States warned that China was poised to unleash a trade superweapon: a state-backed digital dragnet that would rapidly expand across the globe and give Beijing unprecedented insight into the flow of international cargo. The LOGINK platform promised to streamline global shipping by providing a digital system to exchange logistics data from customs authorities, ports and third-party transport services, replacing paper processes.

Instead, the venture suffered a stunning reversal, reported here for the first time. Its flagship global partnerships have stalled, it dropped out of an international maritime association, and it has become mired in domestic lawsuits over unpaid bills, according to interviews with more than 20 shipping industry insiders and officials, as well as a Reuters review of legal filings.

When a reporter visited LOGINK’s operations hub in the coastal city of Wenzhou in September, the offices appeared abandoned: lights off, reception bare, computer cabling stripped out. Calls and emails to LOGINK went unanswered. China’s transport ministry declined to answer questions. The ministry in June, however, issued a policy document calling for the system to be connected to more domestic data streams.

LOGINK's international retreat is a setback for Beijing, which has been engaged in a battle with Washington to control the physical infrastructure and technologies underpinning global shipping, a sector that carries 80 percent of world trade. The platform's decline will be welcomed by the US, which contributed to LOGINK's reversal in fortunes by "naming and shaming" those who used the system, said Randall Schriver, chair of a US Congress commission that issued a report on LOGINK in 2022.

Reuters could not establish why the platform championed by China’s cabinet as a “key project” abruptly went dark and spiraled into financial and legal troubles. The timing of its retreat, however, coincided with US efforts to pressure allies and organizations that had made tentative steps to collaborate with LOGINK as it pushed for global expansion.

US officials and security experts worried that Beijing could use the system to gather non-public information on traded goods, volumes and pricing to help Chinese firms undercut Western rivals. Some also feared that LOGINK could be used to track sensitive military shipments, including US arms deliveries to Ukraine and Taiwan, many of which move through commercial freight networks. LOGINK has not publicly disclosed the exact nature and scale of the data it collected.

In a submission to the US Trade Representative’s Office in 2024, LOGINK official Li Zhao said that it lacked “the capacity to collect sensitive commercial information or to continuously monitor global cargo movements.” A US State Department spokesperson did not provide specifics when asked about its diplomatic efforts to curb global use of LOGINK, but said that Washington would not allow a platform controlled by Beijing to “gain a chokehold over global maritime data.”

“We have prohibited its use across our own government and critical port infrastructure, and we urge allies and industry to take this threat with the same seriousness,” the spokesperson added.

LOGINK is formally known as the National Transportation and Logistics Public Information Platform. It started two decades ago as a local government project in China’s Zhejiang province to improve coordination of cargo movements by bringing data from ports, trucks and vendors into a single searchable platform. The platform won the backing of policymakers in Beijing, who soon after transferred control of LOGINK to China’s transport ministry. International expansion quickly became a priority.

In 2010, China struck a cargo data-sharing deal with the Japanese and South Korean governments that linked LOGINK to their national logistics information platforms. A few years later, LOGINK signed an agreement with a Hong Kong-based logistics platform that the Chinese entity said in a press release would give it access to “more than 90 percent of global ship tracking data.” LOGINK will be a “one-stop portal connected with global logistics information systems,” according to a 2015 Chinese transport ministry presentation to a United Nations commission which was posted online.

By the late 2010s, LOGINK was also exploring ways to collaborate with European ports. But in 2022, US policymakers started publicly pushing back on the Chinese platform. A turning point came that April, when LOGINK signed up to an international data-sharing project linking operators of digital platforms that facilitate the exchange of cargo and customs information at ports. LOGINK’s participation in that project would double its cooperation with international ports, according to the US commission’s report. A few months later, a group of Republican lawmakers urged then-US president Joe Biden in an open letter to act against LOGINK. Among them was Marco Rubio, now Trump’s Secretary of State. Unchecked expansion of LOGINK could allow the Chinese Communist Party “to gain a stranglehold on the arteries of global trade,” they said.

One of the lawmakers, then-Representative Michelle Steel, in late 2023 also asked the International Port Community Systems Association (IPCSA), which spearheaded the data-sharing project, to immediately cut its ties with LOGINK. Congress at around that time additionally passed a law prohibiting the Pentagon from entering into contracts with LOGINK-connected entities.

The law also directed officials to dissuade allies and partners from using the platform. Officials in Seoul and Tokyo who collaborated with LOGINK, however, told Reuters that the scope of data-sharing was more limited than some in Washington feared. South Korea’s Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and Japan’s transport ministry said that only vessel arrival and departure times and information on cargo loading and unloading were made available, not details on cargo contents.

Then, LOGINK beat a retreat. The platform’s participation in IPCSA ended in 2024 after it stopped paying its membership dues, according to a person familiar with the matter. LOGINK’s website went dark around that time. The latest available scrape on the Wayback Machine archive dates to June 2024. IPCSA General Manager Inga Morton confirmed that LOGINK was no longer a member and said that the international data-sharing project was “on hold and inactive”. Meanwhile, China's service with South Korea and Japan that was LOGINK’s flagship international initiative has also faltered.

Participants from the three countries have held regular meetings since the service’s launch, but China abruptly canceled an event scheduled for March 2024, citing “internal circumstances,” according to South Korea's oceans ministry. No meetings have been held since. Tokyo’s access to LOGINK data via that service later stopped without notice, a transport ministry official said. The official told Reuters in August that Japan had lost access more than a year earlier and that Tokyo had been unable to contact Chinese counterparts.

The Chinese venture also had little to show for its efforts to expand into Europe. Ana Rita Rosa, a spokesperson for the authority governing Sines, Portugal’s largest port, told Reuters that a memorandum of understanding it had signed with LOGINK in 2017 to explore data-sharing led to no significant outcomes. And Portbase, the digital system that underpins Europe’s largest port of Rotterdam, said that a 2019 MOU with LOGINK did not progress beyond exploratory discussions.

A person familiar with the matter said Dutch government queries about the relationship in early 2022 contributed to Portbase's decision not to pursue any collaboration with the Chinese platform. Rosa and Portbase declined to comment when asked if US diplomatic pressure had any impact on their decisions not to pursue collaboration with LOGINK. The Dutch foreign ministry also declined to comment.

Back in China, LOGINK has faced legal claims. The commercial entity behind the platform’s Wenzhou hub has since January 2024 faced at least 39 court claims that total some $1.3 million, according to filings on Qichacha, a corporate data provider. Some of the complaints were listed as labor disputes, while others appeared to involve unpaid utilities. Among the claimants is a local subsidiary of China Mobile, which sued LOGINK in October 2025 over a "contract dispute over service provision.” A court subsequently ordered LOGINK to pay the telco, but the filings do not show if that occurred.

LOGINK also appears to be facing eviction. A judge in May presided over a "property lease dispute" brought against the company by the state-backed developer running the industrial park where LOGINK is based, the records show. China Mobile and the developer did not respond to requests for comment. When Reuters visited the Wenzhou building, by a river on the outskirts of the city, there was no sign of activity. Emblazoned on the wall next to desks and chairs gathering dust, however, was a large Communist Party slogan heralding China’s plans to “leverage global supply chains” by 2035.

A cyber-disruption triggered by a sanctioned Russian technology vendor has severely crippled Bangladesh's digital payment infrastructure, halting card management systems and interbank transactions for millions of users since Sunday night.

The crisis stems from a row over a software migration between local payment processor Information Technology Consultants Ltd (ITCL), operator of the Q-Cash network, and Russian vendor Compass Plus.

According to the ITCL, the Russian firm installed a disruptive script on ITCL's servers after learning that it was being replaced by WAY4, an enterprise payment platform developed by Brussels-based OpenWay.
The rogue script automatically restarts ITCL's servers every eight hours, wiping out routing tables and shutting down processing capacity across the network.

"When we identified the issue, we immediately alerted bKash and all our partner banks," Kazi Saifuddin Munir, Managing Director and CEO of ITCL, told The Business Standard yesterday (6 October).

He said customer data remains secure, adding, "After Bangladesh Bank's intervention, we expect services to resume by 10pm Tuesday [yesterday]."

The dispute escalated after the ITCL notified Compass Plus in August of its intention to phase out their platform over a 12-to-18-month transition period. In response, Compass Plus allegedly threatened to cut off technical support and demanded an immediate $1.5 million migration fee, alongside advance payment guarantees backed by Bangladesh Bank.

Central bank reaction

The central bank intervened on Monday, attempting to resolve the standoff through discussion involving the vendor and the ITCL. However, BB officials expressed displeasure with ITCL's decision to shut down systems without prior notice.
Cenbank summons Q-Cash operator over disrupted services

"This is clearly a technical issue, but the failure to manage it instantly is causing immense suffering to cardholders," said Arief Hossain Khan, executive director and spokesperson for Bangladesh Bank.

Arief confirmed that the central bank will issue formal show-cause notices to affected member banks for abruptly suspending services. Central bank directives strictly require institutions to notify the public well in advance through national media, television, and direct text messages prior to any planned maintenance.

According to Bangladesh Bank's Payment Systems Department, ITCL was originally scheduled to execute its system migration towards the end of October.

"On Sunday evening, ITCL suddenly informed us that they had to take the service offline immediately," a central bank official stated. "While they claimed emergency circumstances forced their hand, taking critical payment infrastructure offline without advance notice violates the regulatory framework."

Severe industry and consumer impact

ITCL provides primary payment processing and gateway infrastructure to 33 commercial banks in Bangladesh, managing core capabilities for National Payment Switch Bangladesh (NPSB), ATMs, Point of Sale (POS) terminals, Cash Recycling Machines (CRMs), and Internet Banking Fund Transfers (IBFT).

Industry estimates indicate that ITCL powers approximately 70% of the country's banking-card transactions.

According to a notice on ITCL's website, the maintenance period was logged from 9pm on Sunday (4 October) to 12pm on 10 October. The sudden outage left millions of retail consumers stranded at restaurants, merchant outlets, and ATMs nationwide, unable to execute basic transactions or check account balances via mobile apps.

Member banks have voiced strong frustration over the reputational damage caused by the abrupt shutdown.

"ITCL informed us on Sunday evening, the very day they pulled the plug. We weren't even given a single day to notify our customers," said Mahfuzur Rahman, chief financial officer of Trust Bank. "It was an utterly unprofessional move that destroyed customer trust across all member banks."

Mahfuzur noted that while Trust Bank's debit cards remain functional on international Visa and local NPSB networks, its credit cards, prepaid cards, and Q-Cash ATM network remain entirely deadlocked.

The securities regulator has urged investors to review a mutual fund's net asset value (NAV) and other key fundamentals before investing, warning that buying overpriced units could expose them to potential losses.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) raised the alarm on Monday after observing that units of some mutual funds were being traded in the stock market at prices substantially higher than their respective NAVs.

Investors have shown heightened interest in several mutual funds, driving up unit prices in the secondary market. This has widened the gap between the market value of the units and the underlying asset value.

Investors should not base their decisions on the rise in the market value of mutual funds, said BSEC executive director and spokesperson Md Abul Kalam.

"Investors should not be influenced by rumours, information circulated through social media, or inducements and recommendations from individuals or groups," he added.

If a fund is liquidated, investors will receive value based on NAV, not market price.

Among the funds that triggered the regulatory response, Prime Finance First Mutual Fund reported a NAV of Tk 9 per unit based on the market price of its underlying assets as of Monday, and Tk 15 per unit based on cost price, against a face value of Tk 10. However, the fund's units closed at Tk 32.20 on Monday, more than three times its NAV.

The unit price of Prime Finance First Mutual Fund jumped 52 per cent in just one month, between September 6 and October 5, even though the fund had skipped dividends for two consecutive fiscal years amid net losses.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) recently served a notice on the fund's asset manager, ICB Asset Management, seeking an explanation for the unusual rise in the price and trading volume. ICB Asset Management replied that no undisclosed price-sensitive information was behind the rally or the high trading volume.

Floated in 2009, Prime Finance First Mutual Fund will mature in March 2029, as it received a 10-year extension in 2018.

Phoenix Finance 1st Mutual Fund presents a similar case. It closed at Tk 17.50 per unit on Monday against a reported NAV of Tk 8.49 per unit based on the current market price of its assets, meaning the market price was more than double the NAV.

The fund's trustee recommended no dividend for FY26, marking the third consecutive year without a payout following net losses in FY24 and FY25. Listed in March 2010, the fund also received a 10-year extension and is scheduled to mature in 2030.

The BSEC said a mutual fund is a regulated investment vehicle in which money collected from investors is invested in various financial instruments and other eligible assets in line with the fund's investment policy.

The market value of those assets determines the fund's total asset value, while NAV is calculated by deducting the fund's liabilities from its assets. NAV per unit is then determined by dividing the fund's net assets by the total number of units outstanding.

"An unusual and significant gap between the market price of a mutual fund unit and its underlying net asset value is a matter requiring special caution in making investment decisions," the BSEC said in a statement.

The commission advised investors to verify the latest published NAV per unit of the relevant fund and examine other pertinent information before making investment decisions. It further advised them to assess a fund's underlying asset value and overall financial condition, remaining tenure, investment pattern and portfolio composition, along with other publicly disclosed information, before investing.

While some mutual funds appear overpriced compared to NAV, most of the 35 listed mutual funds are trading below their respective NAVs on the prime bourse.

Stocks on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) plunged today (5 October) as risk-averse investors dumped holdings across the board, extending the broad market's losing streak to a third consecutive session amid macroeconomic concerns and caution ahead of dividend declarations.

The benchmark DSEX index fell 37 points to settle at 5,445, its lowest level of the day. The blue-chip DS30 index, comprising financially sound companies, also dropped 3 points to close at 2,081. Daily turnover on the exchange declined slightly to Tk537 crore.

Market participants attributed the persistent weakness to anxiety surrounding the upcoming earnings and dividend announcements of June-ending listed firms, alongside broader macroeconomic uncertainties that kept investors firmly on the defensive.

In its daily market review, EBL Securities said the ailing capital market witnessed another session of heavy selling pressure as investors remained cautious ahead of the corporate earnings season. Persistent domestic challenges kept investors defensive, limiting prospects for a sustainable near-term recovery.

The review added that the broad index remained on a downward trajectory from the opening bell as broad-based selling swept across the trading floor, underscoring pervasive risk aversion.

Brokerage firm Sheltech Brokerage Limited noted that market performance was weighed down by sustained selling pressure and cautious sentiment over the June-ending companies' fiscal-year disclosures, alongside concerns about a recessionary macroeconomic outlook. Heavy selling persisted throughout the session, dragging the benchmark index to its intraday low of 5,445 points, where it closed.

Market breadth remained heavily skewed towards decliners, with 284 issues falling, while 54 advanced and 48 remained unchanged on the DSE floor.

The downward movement was heavily driven by major large-cap stocks, with Islami Bank, Beximco Pharma, United Commercial Bank, Malek Spinning, and One Bank emerging as the primary index draggers for the session.

On the sectoral front, trading activity was heavily concentrated in the textile sector, which accounted for 29.5% of total daily turnover. The pharmaceuticals sector followed with a 13.1% contribution, while general insurance held 10.5%.

Most sectors posted negative returns for the day, with the ceramic sector suffering the steepest correction at 3.4%, followed by IT at 2.8% and general insurance at 2.2%.

Among individual equities, Paramount Textile, Saiham Textile, Apex Foods, Acme Pesticides, and IPDC Finance dominated the turnover table as the day's top-traded stocks.

Apex Foods led the gainers' chart with a sharp rally of 19.57%, followed by Shyampur Sugar, which jumped 8.63%, and Zeal Bangla Sugar, which gained 7.86%. ICB Sonali Bank 1st Mutual Fund rose 6.57%, while Intraco Refueling Station advanced 5.88%.

Conversely, Techno Drugs emerged as the worst performer of the session, plunging 9.82%, closely followed by Zahintex Industries, which shed 6.32%. Fareast Knitting fell 5.60%, BD Thai Food declined 5.31%, and Aman Feed dropped 5.29%.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) also ended lower in tandem with the capital's bourse. The CSCX index surrendered 32 points to close at 8,971, while the All Share Price Index (CASPI) dropped 40 points to settle at 14,620.

India is working to emerge from China’s shadow while improving diplomatic relations, but the more the world’s most populous country pushes, the more apparent its dependence on its wealthier neighbour becomes.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in New Delhi last month, Xi's first visit to the subcontinent in seven years. The two leaders pledged to rebuild ties badly damaged by deadly hand-to-hand troop clashes in 2020 on their shared but ill-defined Himalayan border.

There are other signs of warming relations since the two Asian giants last year agreed to end the military standoff. Direct flights between Indian and Chinese cities have resumed after being suspended since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and visa services in China have expanded. But such measures only go so far.

Long-standing trade dependence and strategic mistrust will not be addressed with handshakes and plane flights. The two Asian giants’ economic relationship remains deeply asymmetric. China's share of global value-added manufacturing stood at 28 percent in 2025, dwarfing India's 3 percent, according to the World Bank.

The export picture is just as lopsided for India. China’s 16.3 percent share of global merchandise exports in 2025 massively surpasses India’s 1.7 percent. Moreover, India imported goods worth $116 billion more from China than it exported in 2025. By August this year, the deficit had already hit $91 billion and was on track to surpass last year's record.

CAPTIVE SUPPLY CHAINS

The problem is not only that India imports more from China. It is also that many of those imports are indispensable to Indian industry. Electrical and electronic equipment, machinery, and chemicals – the three largest import categories – are largely intermediate goods used by domestic manufacturers.

The more India exports, the more it needs to import from China. Smartphones and generic medicines illustrate the dilemma. India has made progress in assembling electronics and expanding pharmaceutical production, but many of the components and inputs needed for both sectors still come from China.

This intense reliance has many broad strategic implications. For example, Beijing's imposition of export licensing requirements on seven heavy rare earths in April 2025 exposed vulnerabilities in India’s automotive and defense manufacturing sectors.

Of course, some of India’s manufacturing weakness is primarily homegrown. The country’s research and development spending stood at just 0.64 percent of gross domestic product in 2024, according to the most recent Economic Survey, sharply lower than that of Asian peers, partly because of private-sector underinvestment.

Skilled-labour shortages compound the problem. Foxconn's withdrawal of Chinese staff from its Indian iPhone factories in 2025 illustrated how dependent advanced manufacturing can be on foreign technical expertise.

INDIA’S FIXES

New Delhi is seeking to address the imbalance. India recently relaxed restrictions on foreign direct investment from Chinese companies, allowing them to take up to a 10 percent stake in Indian firms.

The government simultaneously announced fast-track clearance of investment proposals in five high-technology areas within 60 days, with the stipulation that they must be structured as joint ventures with majority Indian ownership.

On top of this, Indian exports to China rose by 40 percent between April and August. Industrial machinery, automotive components, printed circuit boards, smartphones and other electronics have driven much of that increase.

But the export surge should not be mistaken for a fundamental shift in the relationship. Much of India's electronics growth still depends on imported Chinese components.

Smartphone manufacturing — India’s biggest export success story — remains only 18-20 percent locally sourced. Northeast Asia’s AI boom appears to be generating positive spillovers for the subcontinent, with Indian firms picking up sub-component work from Chinese tech giants facing surging hardware demand.

But, again, this dynamic reinforces the centrality of Chinese supply chains.

TRUST DEFICIT PERSISTS

For India-bound Chinese FDI and technology transfer to materialise, one question needs to be answered: what does India bring to the table?

The obvious answers are access to a large market and a young, low-cost labour pool as well as New Delhi's various incentives to spur industrial growth — including tax breaks, production-linked payouts, and capital subsidies — but China doesn't appear to be taking the bait.

China’s pressure on its leading companies to withhold critical technologies illustrates how protective Beijing is about its most sophisticated capabilities — electric vehicles, batteries, solar energy and electronic equipment.

Meanwhile, the 3,800-km disputed border in the Himalayas continues to cast a shadow over the relationship. A gradual, multi-year stabilisation strategy is in place — diplomats met in Beijing in August pledging a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable settlement — but a final resolution doesn't appear imminent.

For now, both governments appear willing to give economic cooperation more room. But India's challenge is not simply to import less from China.

It is to use renewed engagement with its neighbour to build its own domestic capabilities. Until then, the relationship between Asia’s two largest economies will remain decidedly one-sided.

The depository authority has developed a mobile app that can instantly help investors become aware of any unauthorised transaction in their portfolios.

Currently, the Central Depository Bangladesh Ltd (CDBL) is conducting a test run of the app, intending to make it available and accessible through a formal inauguration shortly.

As a legal authority, the core function of the CDBL is to hold, record, transfer, and settle securities electronically, rather than rely on physical share certificates. So, an investor’s shareholding position recorded by the CDBL is the actual position of their assets.

However, brokers generate portfolio statements for their clients, using their back-office software.

According to insiders, brokers seeking undue profits sell securities from clients’ portfolios without their consent when they see a sudden upward trend in the market. Those portfolios may be adjusted when the market goes in reverse. There is a risk of brokers failing to repurchase securities to adjust portfolios. Whether brokers do adjust or not, selling clients’ assets without their permission is an unlawful act.

Several brokers, including Moshihor Securities and Tamha Securities, embezzled investors’ securities and kept them in the dark by providing them with fabricated statements that showed their assets intact. Later, regulatory scrutiny unveiled the scams committed by those brokers.

Such scams will be preventable with the help of the app that the CDBL has developed.

If a portfolio statement provided by a broker does not match with that of the CDBL app, the investor will know that unauthorised sales of his securities have taken place at the broker’s end.

Md. Abdul Mutaleb, managing director of the CDBL, said investors will be able to see his portfolio updated whenever any transaction will be made, using the app.

“After the ongoing test run, the app will be made available to investors. The app will add value to the CDBL’s services to investors,” said Mr. Mutaleb.

Another feature of the CDBL’s app will help investors know the valuation of his individual scrips and overall portfolio value as per the latest market price.

After being registered with the app, investors will see information pop up at the top of the app in their devices whenever any change happens in their portfolios.

Information regarding any corporate action linked to the disbursement of dividends will also be available through the app.

After the launch of the app, investors will be able to download it on their iPhones or android mobile sets. They will have the scope of making corrections relating to personal information, such as NID, bank accounts and addresses.

Moreover, the app will enable investors to open BO (beneficiary owner’s) accounts without the need to go to brokerage firms.

The CDBL has already applied to the Election Commission (EC), seeking an API (Application Programming Interface) connection to verify NIDs.

Once the connection is forged, CDBL officials said, investors themselves will be able to open BO accounts by verifying NID on the app.

China’s decision to suspend fuel exports for October has raised fresh fears of a further tightening in global markets. But a combination of rebounding crude oil imports and recent tax cuts on fuel exports makes India well-placed to fill the void.

India has the world’s fourth-largest refinery system, with 23 refineries capable of processing roughly 5.6 million barrels per day of crude oil, Indian state data show.

That refining footprint compares with more than 18 million bpd capacity in China and the US and roughly 6.7 million bpd of capacity in Russia, according to the Energy Institute, and traditionally makes India a key fuel supplier to a slew of Asian economies.

India is also the consistently larger fuel exporter compared to China, with India’s combined shipments of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel hitting roughly 47 million metric tons in 2025 compared with China’s 25.4 million tons, data from Kpler showed.

However, India’s combined exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel over the first nine months of 2026 have contracted by roughly 23 percent, or nearly 8 million metric tons, from a year earlier.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has triggered steep cuts to oil supplies from the Middle East since late February, while sparking fuel and oil rationing across most major economies – including India – for the past several months.

The Indian government also raised duties on fuel exports in the wake of the Iran war, ensuring that the country’s refiners were dissuaded from shipping too much fuel overseas while domestic supplies were at risk of depletion.

But the outlook for India’s fuel exports is starting to brighten following two consecutive cuts to fuel-export taxes, which boost the appeal of steering more fuel onto the export arena.

A steep rebound in Middle Eastern crude oil exports is likely a major driver behind the easing of India’s fuel-export taxes.

India has traditionally sourced around 45 percent to 50 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East, with around 9.4 million metric tons of Middle Eastern oil arriving in India each month in 2025, Kpler data showed.

But the war in Iran, which kicked off in late February, resulted in India’s average oil imports from the Middle East dropping to less than 6 million tons a month from March through July.

That in turn triggered a broader tightening in India’s oil reserves and prompted stepped-up oil imports from other origins, which cost more and took longer to reach India’s refineries.

Oil flows from the Middle East have now started to recover, however, with deliveries to India in September topping 11.3 million tons, Kpler data showed.

That is India’s highest monthly oil haul from the Middle East since February and has restored confidence among Indian officials that fuel exports can start to be elevated again.

The top destinations for Indian fuel exports in 2025 were the United Arab Emirates, Australia, Tanzania, Singapore and South Africa, Kpler data showed.

With tanker traffic through and around the Strait of Hormuz still impacted by the Iran conflict, Indian fuel exporters will presumably prioritize shipments to other markets which are not impacted by the war’s fallout.

Singapore and Australia are obvious candidates for stepped-up shipments from India over the near term, given their established track records of being regular and reliable buyers of Indian fuels.

But with China expected to be out of the market for the next few weeks at least, Indian fuel sellers will likely also be able to target markets such as Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, which used to be heavily reliant on China for much of their fuel inputs.

If Indian refiners can successfully step up supplies to needy buyers just as China steps back from the export market, India could establish itself as one of the world’s most important marginal suppliers of refined fuels.

That role has traditionally belonged to China, whose vast refining system has long acted as a pressure valve for regional fuel markets.

But Beijing’s repeated willingness to curb exports in favour of domestic energy security means that fuel importers can no longer assume Chinese barrels will be available when shortages emerge.

India is increasingly offering an alternative.

Its refiners are highly export-oriented, its links with Middle Eastern crude suppliers are strengthening again and policymakers now appear more comfortable with allowing a greater share of fuel production to reach international markets.

China’s export suspension may prove temporary.

The larger significance is that global fuel markets are being forced to identify who can step in when China steps back.

With crude supplies recovering, export restrictions easing and spare refining capacity available, India looks better positioned than any other country to fill that role.

For fuel consumers across Asia, that could make India more than just a major exporter.

It could make India the new swing supplier that helps keep regional energy markets balanced during periods of disruption.

France and Germany have proposed ​that the European ‌Union toughen itself up with a new measure ​that could be ​activated rapidly to strike ⁠back against countries ​that harm the bloc ​economically in a new world where trade is increasingly ​used as a ​weapon.

The new measure would not ‌target ⁠any specific country. German officials said the EU needed a ​tool ​as ⁠powerful as the Section 301 tariffs ​imposed by the ​United ⁠States or China's restrictions on exports of ⁠critical ​minerals.

Bangladesh could unlock an import-substitution opportunity worth nearly $100 million by properly processing and recycling tannery solid waste (TSW) into value-added commercial materials, according to a recent policy paper by the Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD).

The country currently imports around $95 million worth of products that could potentially be produced domestically from underutilised tannery waste, the paper said.

Presenting the keynote at a policy dialogue in the capital today (5 October), BUILD CEO Ferdaus Ara Begum said the Savar Tannery Industrial Estate generates approximately 84,000 tonnes of TSW annually, of which 60-70% consists of chrome-free beam house trimmings and fleshing that could be processed into gelatin, collagen, protein meal and tallow.

Referring to the study, Ferdaus Ara said recovered tannery waste should be recognised as a secondary industrial raw material. Commercial bio refineries and SME-level tallow extraction units could potentially substitute around $100 million worth of annual imports of gelatin, glue, shoe soles and poultry feed additives, she said.

Speaking as the chief guest at the "Waste into Resource: Tannery Solid Waste (TSW) Byproduct Entrepreneurship Model" dialogue, jointly organised by BUILD and The Asia Foundation at a city hotel, Ministry of Industries Additional Secretary Smriti Karmakar said tannery waste should not be viewed merely as an environmental or river-pollution concern but as an economic resource that can generate new products and businesses through technology, investment and entrepreneurship.

"We should not see tannery waste only as a problem or as a waste management issue. We can look at how, through technology, investment and entrepreneurship, it can be used as a raw material for new products and businesses," she said.

Abul Kashem Khan, chairperson of BUILD, said effective TSW management could diversify exports, attract foreign direct investment and generate revenue. Foreign investors are committing capital to byproduct projects but face severe raw-material shortages, underscoring the need for stronger coordination among government agencies, development partners and the private sector.

In the panel discussion, moderated by Sharifa Khan, former alternate executive director of the World Bank and former senior secretary of the Economic Relations Division, Mohammed Abu Eusuf, professor at Dhaka University and executive director of RAPID, called for a dedicated TSW policy covering coordination, compliance, financing and better-functioning slaughter houses.

Mizanur Rahaman, general secretary of the Bangladesh Tanners Association, proposed dedicated processing facilities and said no factory in the Savar Tannery Industrial Estate is currently Leather Working Group (LWG) certified.

Sajjad Hossain Khan of The Asia Foundation stressed modern technology, formalising informal waste aggregators and stronger governance to develop a circular value chain.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has urged retail investors to assess a mutual fund's net asset value (NAV) per unit and overall financial health before investing, warning against buying units at prices significantly above their underlying asset values.

In a press release issued today (5 October), the capital market regulator said units of some mutual funds are trading on the bourse at prices significantly higher than their NAV per unit.

Describing the gap as an unusual price disparity, the commission said NAV per unit is a key indicator of a fund's intrinsic value. It is calculated by dividing the fund's total net assets by its total outstanding units.

The regulator also cautioned that in the event of a mutual fund liquidation, unit holders have no scope to receive payout beyond the fund's actual net asset value, making purchases at inflated market prices inherently risky.

In light of these developments, the BSEC advised general investors to verify the latest published NAV per unit and other relevant financial disclosures before investing.

The commission strongly cautioned investors against making purchase decisions based solely on price surges, market rumours, social media speculation or persuasive advice from individuals or groups.

Reiterating its commitment to investor protection, the securities regulator urged market participants to make informed decisions by assessing a fund's actual asset value, financial health, tenure, portfolio composition and published regulatory reports.

Last June, my college alumnus, currently a Commissioner of Taxes, came to see me on a social call. During our brief chat, I learnt that he is in charge of a greater district, while two other districts are also under his command in the same zone. I innocently asked him about tax collection. His answer was frustrating and surprising. He said that in 92 percent of files and tax returns, there were no tax payments, while only 8 percent paid nominal taxes.

I occasionally visit markets and shopping malls and, while talking to shop owners as a potential customer, ask how they pay taxes. Most say they are not fully aware of the process, but a middleman or consultant handles it as a package deal, as has been done for years. They do not know how much of the money goes towards tax, incidental expenses or the consultant’s fee. Other small traders and businesses follow similar practices, except some chain shops and businesses managed centrally.
Small businesses should gradually be encouraged to avoid cash transactions and become tax compliant. Otherwise, our goal of raising the tax-to-GDP ratio to a reasonable level will remain unfulfilled.

SMEs formally contribute 25 percent to 35 percent of GDP and informally much more in Bangladesh. The expansion of the trade sector is visible in cities and upcountry areas. The financial condition of people outside the tax net has improved considerably. Rents, salaries and utility bills are high, while the decoration of shops and outlets, particularly in malls and shopping arcades, is often luxurious and attractive. Yet tax collection from these areas remains low because of widespread tax evasion.

Inadequate records of business transactions and financial statements, a lack of transparency, and collusion between tax inspectors, assessing officers and businessmen have kept these areas out of focus. As a result, little tax is collected from them. Similar situations exist in districts and upcountry areas. Usually, a nominal lump sum without any clear basis, plus a bribe disguised as incidental expenses, is the normal way of settling tax.

There is apparently no research on how these growing businesses and SMEs pay taxes or the level of tax evasion. The focus is instead on large businesses, foreign companies and multinationals that maintain proper books and records, have their financial statements audited by credible chartered accountants, and are often pressured to pay additional tax.

SMEs and small traders pay high rents and utility bills and, in some cases, salaries and large rent advances. Tax withholding does not apply to them, and landlords also evade tax in many cases. Although rent can be collected through a dedicated bank account using account-payee cheques, most is paid in cash, keeping it outside the tax net or resulting in only nominal tax payments.

In a society where tax evasion has become common practice, it is difficult to bring people into the tax net overnight. To my surprise, even many affluent people tacitly support this practice. Unless transactions are fully digitalised, SMEs and small traders are unlikely to declare sales or turnover correctly. Given the peculiarities of Bangladesh and people’s apathy towards paying taxes, most transactions are still conducted in cash. In these circumstances, I recommend that SMEs and traders be taxed based on a percentage of rent, salaries and utilities as a basis for minimum tax. This would vary from area to area and could help determine the appropriate tax level. Those who regularly pay reasonable taxes and maintain reliable financial records should be given due credit and kept outside this proposed system.

SMEs and small traders should also gradually be encouraged to avoid cash transactions and become tax compliant. Otherwise, our goal of raising the tax-to-GDP ratio to a reasonable level will remain unfulfilled.

Bangladesh’s energy planning has created an uncomfortable contradiction. A country struggling to afford its current LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports is planning to more than double its import capacity within the next two years. The question is not whether Bangladesh needs LNG, but whether it can afford such a massive expansion.

Is the government creating another LNG trap, similar to the one in the power sector? People are already bearing the costs of capacity payments, loan interest and fuel imports, while high energy prices are pushing up the cost of living. Yet households and industries continue to face unreliable energy supplies.

With mounting debt and growing subsidy requirements for state-owned Petrobangla and the Power Development Board (PDB), the government must carefully assess the economic costs and benefits of expanding LNG infrastructure before committing public resources to another long-term financial burden.

One-third of the national budget could go towards LNG imports

Bangladesh currently operates two floating LNG terminals with a combined capacity of 1,100 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd). The government plans to add three more by 2029, raising the total capacity to 2,700 mmcfd to address gas shortages and ensure supplies to industries.

The rationale is understandable. Domestic gas reserves are declining, industries are facing shortages, and gas-fired power plants cannot operate at full capacity. But the ability to import gas does not necessarily mean the country can afford it.

Following the Iran war, Bangladesh had to purchase LNG from the spot market at around $29-30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), reflecting the volatility seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. These crises demonstrate how geopolitical tensions can disrupt global energy markets and make future prices extremely difficult to predict.

If Bangladesh operates LNG import infrastructure with a combined capacity of 2,700 mmcfd, the annual import bill could reach around $29 billion at an average price of $28 per MMBtu. At $30, the bill could approach $30 billion.

Although Bloomberg’s Global LNG Market Outlook 2030, published in September 2025, projected average global prices below $10 per MMBtu in 2026 and potentially below $5 by 2030, such forecasts cannot account for every geopolitical crisis or supply disruption. Indeed, the report was published before the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Bangladesh’s national budget for FY2026-27 stands at Tk 9.38 trillion. In a future wartime scenario at $28 per MMBtu, importing LNG equivalent to the planned capacity could cost more than Tk 350,000 crore annually at the current exchange rate—over one-third of the national budget. Any further depreciation of the taka would increase the burden.

Limited foreign currency earnings, massive spending

According to Bangladesh Bank, the country earns around $80 billion in foreign currency annually. Earnings stood at $83.5 billion in FY2025-26. An annual LNG import bill of $30 billion would therefore place enormous pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

Bangladesh must also spend billions of dollars importing food, fertiliser, edible oil, industrial raw materials, machinery, pharmaceutical ingredients and other forms of energy. The country already spends around $12 billion annually on oil, gas and coal imports, while its trade deficit exceeded $27 billion in FY2025-26.

The country’s foreign currency earnings remain heavily dependent on readymade garment exports and remittances, both of which are vulnerable to global economic uncertainty. Although increased energy supplies could support industrial growth and exports, high energy costs could undermine the competitiveness of local industries.

Many factories are already struggling with rising production costs and cannot afford significantly higher gas prices if subsidies are withdrawn. Without diversifying its export base and moving towards higher-value products, Bangladesh cannot assume that expensive LNG imports will generate enough additional foreign currency to cover their costs.

Lower prices will not eliminate the problem

LNG prices will not remain at $28-30 per MMBtu indefinitely. However, even if prices fall to $10, importing LNG equivalent to 2,700 mmcfd would still cost Bangladesh more than $10 billion annually.

For an economy with a narrow export base, this would remain a substantial burden, competing with essential imports, debt repayments and investment in other sectors. LNG at $28 per MMBtu would be prohibitively expensive, but even at $10, it would not be cheap.

The hidden costs of LNG infrastructure

The financial burden does not end with purchasing LNG. Individual terminals can cost between Tk 5,000 crore and Tk 11,000 crore to construct, depending on their capacity.

Bangladesh’s first LNG terminal, built by US-based Excelerate Energy in 2016-17, cost around $180 million, or Tk 2,214 crore at the time. Petrobangla currently pays Tk 2.9 crore a day in capacity charges for the terminal, amounting to approximately Tk 1,064 crore annually. Over its 15-year contract, these payments will total around Tk 16,000 crore.

Using this terminal as a reference, three additional terminals could cost at least Tk 10,000 crore each on average. Their capacity payments could reach around Tk 50,000 crore. Including the costs associated with all five terminals, the total could rise to approximately Tk 75,000 crore, or $7 billion.

There are also concerns about the proposed rental charge for a third LNG terminal, approved for a Chinese company. The proposed daily charge of $342,000, equivalent to Tk 4.2 crore, is around 40 percent higher than the rates for existing terminals. If approved without changes, it would further increase capacity-payment obligations.

The risk of stranded assets

Bangladesh could complete these terminals but later struggle to import sufficient LNG because of high prices, foreign currency shortages or global market volatility. Yet rental payments, loans and interest obligations would continue regardless of how much gas the terminals handle.

The power sector offers a clear warning. Many power plants remain idle, but Bangladesh pays more than Tk 25,000 crore annually on average in capacity charges. In 2025 alone, these payments exceeded Tk 42,000 crore.

Bangladesh’s public debt exceeded Tk 22 lakh crore in early 2026 and is increasing by around Tk 1.5 lakh crore annually. Rising interest payments are adding further pressure. Expensive energy imports and infrastructure financed through borrowing could create a cycle in which efforts to secure energy undermine broader economic security.

The government is simultaneously planning three new LNG terminals, expanding domestic gas exploration through 150 wells and pursuing a target of 10,000 MW of solar power by 2030. If domestic gas exploration and renewable energy programmes succeed, expensive LNG infrastructure could be underused or become stranded assets.

A report by Zurich-based SolAbility, Global LNG Market Outlook 2026–2035, notes that several countries, including Pakistan, Vietnam and the Philippines, are cancelling LNG projects as they expand renewable energy. One key reason is the high cost of LNG-based electricity, estimated at $80–120 per megawatt-hour (MWh), compared with just $30–40 per MWh for solar power combined with battery storage.

Before approving additional terminals, the government should publish transparent economic assessments based on LNG prices of $10, $20 and $30 per MMBtu. These should detail annual foreign currency requirements, funding sources and capacity charges, including payments for underutilised infrastructure.

The government must also compare LNG investments with domestic gas exploration, rehabilitation of ageing gas wells, improvements in transmission infrastructure, industrial energy efficiency, renewable electricity and grid modernisation.

Has the energy strategy really changed?

In 2023, the previous government finalised the Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP) with Japanese assistance. The plan opened the way for LNG imports of up to 5,000 mmcfd by 2040 and proposed $179 billion in energy infrastructure investments, including LNG terminals.

Some experts have raised concerns about the influence of Japan’s commercial interests, given its position as a major LNG re-exporter and its investments in LNG trading infrastructure and gas-fired power plants across Asia.

Although the IEPMP lost relevance following the departure of the Awami League government, questions remain about how much Bangladesh’s fundamental energy strategy has changed. The current administration also appears interested in pursuing several similar initiatives.

Bangladesh does need LNG in the short term as domestic gas production declines and industries face shortages. But LNG cannot be a permanent solution to the country’s energy crisis.

If Bangladesh is struggling to secure 1,100 mmcfd today, how will it manage to secure 2,700 mmcfd within the next two years—and, more importantly, how will it afford the bill?

The writer works for an international development organisation and is an independent energy journalist.

The Ministry of Finance has lifted a 16-year-old restriction on direct listing, allowing multinational, state-owned and high-value private companies to list on local stock exchanges without issuing an initial public offering (IPO).

According to a ministry order issued today (5 October), the government revoked a circular issued on 1 February 2010 that prohibited direct listing of state-owned, private and foreign companies.

The decision came after the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) recommended on 19 August 2026 that the restriction be withdrawn to support the sustainable development of the capital market.

The move removes a long-standing regulatory barrier to direct listing by private-sector companies, potentially expanding the range of companies eligible to raise capital through the stock exchanges.

In December 2016, the BSEC had instructed the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) to suspend provisions allowing the direct listing of unlisted securities of non-governmental companies.

As a result, the direct-listing mechanism became largely limited to state-owned enterprises.

The restriction followed controversy over earlier direct listings, particularly sharp share-price volatility and substantial capital gains made by existing promoters after the companies were listed.

The latest decision is expected to reopen the direct-listing route for eligible private and foreign companies, subject to applicable listing and regulatory requirements.

Under the new regulatory push, Bangladesh is set to revive direct listing for large, established enterprises after a 16-year hiatus. In early September 2026, the BSEC approved draft rules titled the "Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Direct Listing of Securities by Stock Exchange) Rules, 2026" for public consultation.

Under the proposed framework, qualified entities will be permitted to list their shares on the main board by offloading 10% to 20% of existing shareholders' holdings on the secondary market, rather than raising new capital through conventional IPOs. This alternative entry pathway aims to entice top-tier corporate names to go public while offering institutional and founding shareholders a structured exit mechanism.

However, the regulator has emphasised that the facility will remain tightly guarded to prevent past abuses, restricting eligibility strictly to large, strategically important firms meeting stringent thresholds. Eligible entities include government-owned or majority-held companies, firms where the government holds at least 10% paid-up capital, and foreign-owned or multinational corporations.

Additionally, telecommunications and ICT infrastructure providers approved by the BTRC with a minimum paid-up capital of Tk300 crore will qualify. Scheduled banks, non-bank financial institutions, and insurance companies boasting a minimum three-year operational track record can also seek direct listing.

Furthermore, general private corporations holding annual turnover or total assets of at least Tk500 crore will be eligible, subject to satisfying exchange and central depository compliance rules.

Direct listing was first introduced in Bangladesh under a 2006 framework, through which major state-owned power and energy giants including DESCO, Power Grid Company of Bangladesh, Jamuna Oil, Meghna Petroleum, and Titas Gas successfully tapped the market. Private firms like ACI Formulations, Shinepukur Ceramics, and Navana CNG also entered the bourse via direct listing during that era.

However, aggressive price discovery and trading anomalies, most notably surrounding Navana CNG's listing in 2009, triggered regulatory investigations, prompting authorities to impose severe restrictions in 2010. Controversies resurfaced in 2020 over Best Holdings' attempted direct listing on the DSE.

By lifting the 2010 restriction and replacing it with the comprehensive 2026 framework, regulators aim to replace old loopholes with clear eligibility standards, offering blue-chip multinationals and large domestic conglomerates a fast-track route to the capital market.