Bangladesh has set an ambitious export goal for the current fiscal year, targeting a 15% jump in earnings to $63.4 billion despite factories operating well below capacity for months amid a persistent shortage of orders.

The challenge is clear, considering exports shrank 0.58% in the last fiscal year.

Economists and exporters say meeting the target will require far more than a rebound in global demand. Manufacturers continue to struggle with gas shortages, double-digit borrowing costs, weak investment and US tariffs, while sluggish consumer spending in major Western markets and geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the global trade outlook.

Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muqtadir today (26 July) announced the export target for 2026-27 fiscal year at a press conference at the ministry.

The government aims to earn $63.4 billion from exports–- $55.2 billion from merchandise shipments and $8.2 billion from services. The target represents a 15% increase over the actual export earnings recorded in FY26.

Of the merchandise export target, the government expects the ready-made garment sector to earn $44.5 billion, up from the $38.7 billion earned in previous fiscal.

For FY26, the government had targeted $63.5 billion in total exports, including $55 billion from goods and $8.5 billion from services. However, the target was missed.

Merchandise exports fell 0.58% year-on-year to $48 billion, while services exports stood at $7 billion. The services figure will be finalised in two to three months, Muqtadir said.

As a result, the overall export target for FY27 is effectively lower than the previous year's target, despite being higher than last year's actual export earnings.

'Realistic opportunity to recover'

At the press conference, Muqtadir, on the feasibility of achieving the export growth target, said business confidence had improved following the restoration of policy certainty.

He added that clarity over Bangladesh's LDC graduation and the country's market access during the transition period, together with ongoing trade negotiations, should support export growth despite domestic challenges, including the energy shortage.

He mentioned that the government had launched initiatives to accelerate exports by improving the business environment, facilitating investment and simplifying public service delivery, which he expected would produce tangible results in the near term.

He said negotiations on free trade agreements (FTA) with South Korea and the UAE are in final stages. The government aims to conclude FTAs with several other countries within this year and expects to begin formal negotiations with the European Union on an FTA shortly.

Asked when the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan would take effect, he said the deal would be tabled at the next session of parliament for ratification.

Regarding the trade deal with the US, Muqtadir said only the tariff's name had changed, not its rate, and it would not pose an additional obstacle to exports.

On export diversification, he said to reduce reliance on the ready-made garment sector, the government is prioritising leather, footwear, shipbuilding, ship recycling, light engineering and information technology, with sector-specific action plans to be rolled out soon.

"We want garment exports to reach $80 billion, while other sectors together contribute another $100 billion," he said.

The minister acknowledged that domestic gas production had reached its limit and Bangladesh was already importing 900 million cubic feet of liquefied natural gas a day.

With only two FSRUs in operation, the country cannot increase imports further, making any near-term improvement in energy supplies unlikely. He said the government plans to install two more FSRUs and is treating the issue as a priority.

Muqtadir said the gas shortage has left 30% of the country's installed industrial capacity idle. "While there is no quick fix, the government is working to address the problem."

'May not reach 15%, but could come close'

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said the government targeted 9% export growth in FY26 over the previous year's actual earnings, but merchandise exports ultimately contracted.

He cited the US' 10% new tariff, LDC graduation uncertainty and global headwinds, alongside high business and borrowing costs at home, as major obstacles to export growth. "Given these domestic and global conditions, a 15% export growth target is highly ambitious."

However, the economist said stronger export growth remains achievable if the government effectively implemented the positive measures announced in the budget, including the national single window, faster port clearance, and reliable gas supplies.

"It may not reach 15%, but it could come close," he added.

Shehab Udduza Chowdhury, vice-president of BGMEA, said the government has announced some positive policies, but implementation remains weak.

"Overall, the challenges are mounting, making the target unrealistic," he said.

For instance, he said India's FTA with the European Union will allow its exports to enter the bloc duty-free within the next five to six months, creating a fresh challenge for Bangladesh.

He warned that renewed tensions in the Middle East could trigger another energy shock, while gas shortages at home had already intensified.

Shehab further said manufacturers were being squeezed by rising production costs while weak demand prevented them from raising export prices.

"If the government can at least resolve domestic bottlenecks, particularly the gas crisis, exporters may be able to achieve modest positive growth," he said.

Md Fazlul Hoque, managing director of Plummy Fashions and former president of the BKMEA, shared a similar view, saying that there is little indication that global apparel demand will rebound sharply anytime soon

"At the same time, high borrowing costs, gas shortages and a weakened banking sector are making financing more difficult and driving up production costs. Bangladesh also lags competitors in productivity," he told TBS.

He added that uncertainty over global energy prices persists despite the easing of recent conflicts. "The government's target does not reflect the realities facing exporters."

Bangladesh is seeking to deepen economic ties with China as part of a broader strategy to accelerate industrialisation, modernise infrastructure and reduce vulnerability to global economic shocks, Finance Adviser Dr Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said on Sunday, outlining what he described as a pragmatic, interest-driven approach to foreign policy under the country's new government.

Speaking at a seminar titled "Bangladesh-China Relations: Enhanced Trust and New Direction", Titumir said the relationship with Beijing would be guided by Bangladesh's national priorities rather than geopolitical alignments, as Dhaka pursues an ambitious target of becoming a US$1.0 trillion economy by 2034.

"China occupies a place of special importance," he said. "Our foreign policy is primarily driven by our social, economic and political factors. Our task now is to translate our shared vision into tangible outcomes that benefit the peoples of both countries."

South Asia Institute of Policy and Governance (SIPG) of the North South University organised the seminar.

His remarks reflect Bangladesh's efforts to position itself amid intensifying strategic competition between China, the United States and India, while maintaining a foreign policy centred on economic development. The government has repeatedly described its approach as "Bangladesh First", emphasising national interest over bloc politics.

Titumir said Bangladesh's newly approved five-year strategic framework for reform and development closely complements China's forthcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, creating opportunities for cooperation in industrial development, infrastructure and investment.

Rather than pursuing growth through consumption-led investment, Bangladesh is prioritising production-oriented foreign investment, he said, arguing that Chinese expertise in manufacturing and industrial upgrading makes Beijing a natural partner for the country's economic transformation.

"We are looking for investment for industrialisation," he said. "China has followed that particular form of economic modernisation."

He said the government had inherited an economy and public institutions weakened by years of mismanagement and was pursuing a phased strategy of recovery, restoration and reconstruction before accelerating growth.

The finance adviser also linked the government's economic philosophy to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party's historical development policies, crediting former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia with overseeing one of the country's fastest periods of poverty reduction and describing the economic vision of late President Ziaur Rahman as rooted in indigenous solutions rather than externally prescribed austerity.

Without naming previous governments directly, Titumir said Bangladesh's development strategy would reflect its own historical experience rather than copy any foreign economic model.

Infrastructure emerged as a central theme of his address. Bangladesh is seeking Chinese participation in rail modernisation, expressways, port expansion and multimodal logistics networks, including implementation of the framework agreement on Mongla Port modernisation signed during Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's recent visit to China.

He also welcomed President Xi Jinping's proposal for a transport corridor linking Kunming and Chattogram and reiterated Bangladesh's interest in discussions on the China-Bangladesh-Myanmar Economic Corridor, saying improved regional connectivity would stimulate trade, investment and tourism.

The government is encouraging Chinese companies to relocate manufacturing operations to Bangladesh and integrate the country into regional and global value chains, while also attracting investment from a broader range of international partners.

"We do not believe in exclusive relationships; we believe in inclusive relationships," Titumir said.

Trade remains heavily skewed towards China, however. Bilateral trade has reached nearly US$24bn annually, while Bangladesh's exports remain below US$1bn.

Titumir said narrowing that imbalance had become a priority and urged greater utilisation of China's duty-free and quota-free market access. Bangladesh hopes to expand exports of garments, jute products, leather goods, pharmaceuticals, agricultural products and processed foods.

He welcomed recent Chinese approval for import of Bangladeshi guava and jackfruit and called for similar access for additional products.

The finance adviser also identified water management as another priority area for bilateral cooperation, highlighting Bangladesh's interest in Chinese expertise on flood control, river management, hydrological forecasting and irrigation.

He described the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project as one of Bangladesh's most important development priorities and expressed hope for continued Chinese technical and financial support.

Beyond economics, Titumir called for closer cooperation in renewable energy, healthcare, digital infrastructure, education and cultural exchanges to broaden public engagement between the two countries.

On regional diplomacy, he thanked China for its role in supporting efforts to resolve the Rohingya refugee crisis and urged Beijing to continue facilitating conditions for the refugees' safe and sustainable return to Myanmar.

He also expressed Bangladesh's support for revitalising the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), while seeking Chinese backing for Dhaka's aspirations to join groupings including BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

The speech signals that Bangladesh intends to deepen engagement with China while simultaneously pursuing diversified international partnerships - an approach the government argues will strengthen economic resilience in an increasingly fragmented global economy.Stock Market Data

Dr Liu Zongyi, director of the South Asia Studies of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, said "Not long ago, Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman hit a successful visit to China.When President Xi Jinping met with Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, the two sides announced the building of a China Bangladeshi community with a shared future in the new era, opening a new chapter for bilateral relations". He noted that this high-level visit helped bilateral relations achieve stronger political mutual trust, a deeper practical cooperation, and more effective international coordination.

"Our two countries aim to realize organization together. We are driven by shared development. We take shared governance as our responsibility and connected each other through exchanges between civilizations. We work hands in hand for a shared future".

He noted that present Bangladesh-China partnership goes beyond its ordinary bilateral friendship.

Foreign Secretary Asad Al Siam said during his bilateral meeting with Bangladesh PM Tarique Rahman, Chinese President Xi assured that China would stand beside Bangladesh regardless of changes in the international environment which conveys a message of confidence in the bilateral partnership at a time of increasing global uncertainty.

According to the foreign secretary, the visit has set a high benchmark. "The agreements are ambitious. The political understanding has been refreshed. The economic opportunities are substantial. Our task now is to translate these achievements into tangible outcomes for the people. Together with our colleagues, both in public and private sector, we are ready to do so".

Moderated by Professor Sheikh Tawfique M Haque, Director, South Asia Institute of Policy and Governance (SIPG) of the North South University, the seminar was also addressed by Benazir Ahmed, a member of the Board of Trustees of the university.

India said on Saturday it would continue engaging with the United States to conclude a bilateral trade agreement, after Washington imposed a 10 percent tariff on imports from the South Asian nation under new trade measures.

The Trump administration on Friday unveiled fresh duties of between 10 percent and 12.5 percent on goods from 60 trading partners, including India, alleging those countries had failed to curb imports made with forced labour.
The fresh duty on India is lower than the 12.5 percent tariff proposed in June and excludes products such as generic pharmaceuticals, smartphones, steel, aluminium and auto parts, India’s commerce ministry said in a statement.

India remains engaged with the United States and would continue discussions on sector-specific issues, including textiles, as part of negotiations on a bilateral trade pact, the statement said.

The two countries have been negotiating a trade agreement since last year as they seek to deepen economic ties and resolve long-standing market access issues.

“The government remains committed to working with the United States towards the early conclusion of the India-U.S. Bilateral Trade Agreement,” the ministry said.

It said about 45 percent of India’s exports to the United States would remain outside the scope of the fresh tariff because of product exemptions, while the remaining 55 percent would face the new 10 percent duty.

The fresh levy applies on top of standard US most-favoured-nation tariffs.

Reuters reported on Friday that Indian textile and apparel exporters are likely to be at a disadvantage against several Asian rivals under the new tariff regime.

RAK Ceramics (Bangladesh) Limited staged a turnaround in the first half (January-June) of 2026, returning to profit with Tk2.28 crore in earnings after posting a Tk21 crore loss in the same period a year earlier.

According to price-sensitive information disclosure published on the company's website today (26 July), the ceramic tile manufacturer reported earnings per share (EPS) of Tk0.05 for the first six months of 2026, compared to a negative EPS of Tk0.49 a year earlier.

The company attributed the turnaround to changes in income tax regulations, lower depreciation costs, and improved production following a recovery in gas supply.

Revenue also increased 21% year-on-year to Tk374 crore during the January-June period, up from Tk310 crore in the same period of 2025.

The company said improved gas pressure helped increase production, while higher sales volume contributed to revenue growth. Lower depreciation costs also helped raise its gross profit margin to 19.24%, from 14.97% a year earlier.

In the second quarter (April-June) of 2026, RAK Ceramics recorded sales of Tk199 crore, compared to Tk163 crore in the same quarter last year.

The company posted a quarterly net profit of Tk7.85 crore, reversing a net loss of Tk18.50 crore in the April-June period of 2025.

As of 30 June 2026, the company's net asset value (NAV) stood at Tk645 crore, with NAV per share at Tk15.08, compared to Tk15.73 a year earlier.

India said on Saturday that a "substantial" share of its exports to the United States, which now attracts zero additional duties, including generic medicines and smartphones, continues to remain outside the scope of the additional 10% duty imposed by Washington under Section 302 related to the use of forced labour in manufacturing in 60 countries.

Also, products already covered under Section 232 measures, including steel, aluminium and auto parts, are not subject to the additional 10% duty, the Indian Commerce Ministry said in a statement.

On account of these exemptions, an estimated 45% of India's exports to the United States remain outside the purview of the additional 10% Section 301 duty, it said, adding that the remaining 55% of exports will attract the additional 10% duty, where India's tariff incidence is comparatively lower than that for most other economies covered by the investigation.

The textile-specific mechanism referenced in the final measures is yet to be established and operationalised, the statement said.

Bangladesh Bank has warned the Parliamentary Standing Committee on the Ministry of Finance that rising defaulted loans have created capital and provision deficits at many banks, increasing instability in the country’s financial sector.
The observations were presented by Bangladesh Bank’s Monetary Policy Department at the first meeting of the committee at the parliament on Sunday, bdnews24.com reports.

The central bank also identified uncertainty over fuel supplies, sluggish investment and low demand for credit in the private sector as key domestic challenges to the economy.

Speaking to bdnews24.com after the meeting, committee member Md Saiful Alam said the panel had recommended reducing the policy interest rate to a single digit and reviewing it every six months instead of leaving it unchanged for long periods.

Bangladesh will require an estimated US$421 billion in additional financing over the next five years to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), according to a latest government assessment.

The assessment was unveiled on Sunday at the National Validation Workshop on the Development Finance Assessment (DFA) and SDG Financing in Dhaka, organised by the Economic Relations Division (ERD) with support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the UN Resident Coordinator's Office in Bangladesh.

The workshop reviewed the findings of the DFA-a global framework designed to align financing policies, institutions and financial flows with national development priorities-and discussed Bangladesh's updated SDG Financing Strategy, according to a press statement.

"The remaining period of SDGs up to 2030 will be challenging. The financing gap is large, the time available is limited, and the global environment remains uncertain. Nevertheless, I remain confident that Bangladesh can make meaningful progress," it said, quoting ERD Secretary Md. Shahriar Kader Siddiky.

"What we now need is a clear set of priorities, coordinated action, better governance and effective implementation", he said while speaking at the workshop as the chief guest.

Presenting the findings, Dr Selim Raihan, Professor of Economics at the University of Dhaka, outlined Bangladesh's changing financing landscape and options for raising more money from public and private sources.

He presented the $421 billion estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2026-2030, noting most of the amount would need to come from domestic public and private finance, climate finance and international partnerships.

Carol Flore-Smereczniak, UN Resident Coordinator highlighted the significance of domestic resource mobilisation at this moment in Bangladesh's development journey.

She said: "In today's world, opportunities for development financing are diminishing. This is an opportunity for Bangladesh to increase its domestic investment in the SDGs, by increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio and by encouraging the private sector to make SDG-aligned investments".

Additional Secretary of ERD and the Chair of the event A.H.M. Jahangir stressed the need for a joined-up financing plan as Bangladesh prepares to graduate from LDC status.

Speaking for UNDP, Sonali Dayaratne, Deputy Resident Representative, underscored the need for stronger financing policies and partnerships to close the funding gap.

"Financing today is no longer simply about mobilising more resources; it is about ensuring that all key government institutions, development partners, the private sector, and civil society are active partners in the design process from the outset." she noted.

The workshop was supported by the UNDP Climate Finance Network (CFN) Programme, funded by the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).

It brought together government officials, development partners, banks, academics, and civil society to discuss the findings of the two studies to better plan the financial roadmap to achieve the SDGs, the statement added.

Bangladesh received US$2.30 billion in workers' remittances during the first 25 days of July 2026, marking a 20.6 percent year-on-year increase compared with US$1.91 billion received during the corresponding period of July 2025, according to the latest data from Bangladesh Bank.
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The central bank data showed that expatriate Bangladeshis sent US$129 million in remittances between July 23 and July 25 alone, BSS reports.

The strong inflow in the opening month of the 2026-27 fiscal year reflects the continued contribution of Bangladeshi migrant workers to the country's foreign exchange reserves and overall economic stability.

The US Federal Reserve is set to hold its second meeting under new chairman Kevin Warsh starting Tuesday, with markets expecting policymakers to keep interest rates steady amid inflation concerns that could be exacerbated by US President Donald Trump’s renewed war on Iran.

Warsh was chosen to lead the US central bank by Trump, who has made his demand for lower interest rates clear as he has exerted unprecedented pressure on the independent monetary policy making body.
After two days of closed-door sessions, the Fed’s open market committee (FOMC) will announce its decision on Wednesday at 2:00 pm (1800 GMT), followed by a press conference by Warsh.Most investors expect the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.50-3.75 percent for the fifth straight meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch monitoring tool.US consumer inflation eased to 3.5 percent year-on-year last month, but remains far higher than the Fed’s long-term two-percent target, which it has not achieved for more than five years.

Since last week, a ramping up of hostilities has seen intense US strikes and Tehran’s retaliatory action targeting Washington’s allies across the region, while Yemen’s Houthi rebels have threatened to blockade the Red Sea oil trading route.The fighting has sent energy prices soaring once more, with the benchmark oil futures contract breaching $100 per barrel for the first time since late May, when energy prices were on their way down.At the Fed, policymakers have been losing patience with persistent inflation, indicating that a rate hike may be near.The Fed “has to be ready to tighten monetary policy to prevent a repeat of the 2021-to-2022 inflation episode,” Fed Governor Chris Waller said last week.“Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option.”

Since taking office, Warsh has vowed to reduce or eliminate the amount of forward guidance the Fed provides on its decision-making process, a move that has received mixed reactions.

The new chairman has said that providing forward guidance locks policymakers into positions that they may need to change. Some analysts, however, argue that opacity in decision-making creates more uncertainty for markets.

In public statements since taking control of the Fed, Warsh has said he has a “resolute commitment” to delivering price stability, but has not offered details on how and when he thinks it would be appropriate to act.

The Fed has a dual mandate to keep inflation to its long-term target while also delivering maximum employment.

Its main tool to achieve this is the economy’s key interest rate -- raising rates tends to curtail economic activity and high prices, while lowering them encourages hiring and investment but can also stoke inflation.

The US labor market has largely stabilized, with steady unemployment despite zigzagging job growth, leaving policymakers mostly focused on inflation.

“’Resolute commitment’ is, in my opinion, insufficient to tighten monetary policy and curb any inflationary pressures,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

With Warsh largely remaining silent, several other policymakers have been vocal about their concern over high prices and the potential need for action in the near-term.

“When you create a vacuum, it’s oftentimes the case that the vacuum gets filled,” said Daco.

With headline inflation dipping in June, ahead of further rises expected ahead, analysts say they do not expect a rate hike at this meeting -- but that the decision will likely see some dissenting voices.
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“We may have a new chairman, but the old guard is now worried about where the economy has moved since the beginning of the year,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, told AFP.

Inflation has been under pressure not just from rising fuel prices due to the war, but also due to heightened demand from the AI boom and the continued effect of Trump’s tariffs rippling through the economy.

“The hawkish core of the Fed has not only hardened but it’s broadened,” said Swonk, who expects two rate hikes later this year.

US President Donald Trump had no time for lengthy tariff investigations when he returned to office last year, wanting to hammer trading partners right away to wring concessions.

What followed was a chaotic start to a trade agenda that was eventually upended by a stinging Supreme Court defeat this year.
Now he and his team are moving into a new phase to build a more durable US tariff wall using more traditional and court-tested trade laws, those he had little patience for 18 months ago.His latest global tariff salvo — duties of 10 percent or 12.5 percent on 60 countries over allegedly weak enforcement of forced-labor bans — marks the first of numerous tariff actions to be unveiled in the months ahead.They include probes into excess industrial capacity, alleged intellectual property theft by Vietnam, and national security protections for strategic industries from semiconductors to robotics and industrial machinery.“We’re at the end of the beginning of the Trump tariff agenda,” said Dan Ujczo, associate general counsel at Canadian oil producer Cenovus Energy, who specializes in US-Canada trade.

“Within the next few weeks, and certainly by the end of the summer, we will see large parts of President Trump’s trade policy fully in effect.”This could bring more clarity and certainty for businesses on Trump’s ultimate tariff structure, along with dread in foreign trade ministries that they may have to cough up more concessions to protect access to a $3.4 trillion US import market.

Trump’s new anti-forced labor duties imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the unfair trade practices statute used against China during his first term, almost directly replace a global 10 percent temporary tariff that expired on Friday.

They cover 99.4 percent of US imports, the US Trade Representative’s office said.

This rebuilds part of Trump’s signature “Liberation Day” tariffs of 10 percent-50 percent on nearly every country, which the US Supreme Court struck down as illegal under an untested national emergencies law Trump used to impose them.

Another part of the baseline tariffs is likely to be rebuilt by another Section 301 investigation into excess industrial capacity, targeting 16 big trading partners, including China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, Mexico and Vietnam.

That ongoing probe targets industrial subsidies and other export-focused policies.

Amid a wider uproar over Trump’s move, some viewed it as largely maintaining the status quo.

Mark Bissell, CEO of Michigan-based vacuum maker Bissell Inc, said the newest tariffs were largely what the company anticipated and it hadn’t frontloaded inventory from China and elsewhere to try to beat them.

“We continued to run the business based on the belief that the tariffs would stay in the 10-15 percent range,” Bissell said in an email to Reuters.

Trump’s gamble on quick but untested tariffs right out of the gate did four things.

It heaped added costs onto retailers and other import-dependent industries; it brought dozens of trading partners to the negotiating table, yielding concessions for lower rates; it prompted swift retaliation and tariff escalation from China that led to a delicate truce; and it filled US fiscal coffers with hundreds of billions of dollars.

The Liberation Day tariffs alone yielded $166 billion in revenue, a major offset to a growing federal deficit, but refunds to importers have now turned those collections negative.

The 150-day temporary tariffs, based on a law meant to quell balance-of-payments crises, have added $31 billion in assessed revenue through July 5.
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But if a federal court ruling against them stands, that money, too, is subject to refund.

With US public debt approaching $40 trillion, Josh Lipsky, chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council, said subsequent administrations may become addicted to tariff revenue that is likely to be sustained.

“The tariff wall is being rebuilt strong brick by strong brick, and it’s very durable,” Lipsky said.

Trump’s broad use of Section 301 in the forced-labor case prompted an immediate legal challenge by small businesses, but trade and legal experts say this will take time to play out.

The statute has a solid track record in the courts, and judges may be reluctant to enjoin actions aimed at curbing forced labor and lowering barriers to US goods.

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US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer made clear this week that Trump will use everything at his disposal to erect tariffs to reshore production and shrink the trade deficit.

“The specific authorities this administration is using have changed, but the trade strategy has not,” Greer told the US Senate Finance Committee.

Greer, who has not committed to a timeline for the industrial capacity investigations, has said the layers of tariffs being rebuilt will not exceed caps included in deals he has been negotiating,

including 15 percent for the EU, Japan and South Korea and higher rates for Southeast Asian countries.

Administration officials say even though China is viewed as the world’s largest source of excess manufacturing, its rates will not exceed the cap of about 20 percent agreed by Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last November,

which is on top of the 25 percent tariffs from his first term.

Some nominal — or announced — duties may be higher than actual applied rates, which analysts say may be an enforcement mechanism for countries to stick to agreed trade deal terms.

Still, some things continue to come out of the blue, including the 50 percent duties on Canadian beer, dairy, hockey sticks and other products Trump announced on Monday over Ottawa’s refusal to make trade concessions,

and his threat to cut off all trade with Spain over not meeting NATO military spending targets.

That proclivity for spontaneous tariff announcements remains an ongoing risk, said Eswar Prasad, a trade professor at Cornell University and former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China department.

“Trump’s eagerness to impose tariffs to address a whole range of grievances will not only continue disrupting the global trading system but will have significant adverse effects on American households and businesses.”

Trust Bank PLC reported a consolidated net profit of Tk119.33 crore in the first half of 2026, down 11.81% year-on-year, according to the bank's price-sensitive information.

The bank's earnings per share (EPS) stood at Tk1.20 during the January-June period, compared with consolidated net profit of Tk135.32 crore in the same period a year earlier.

On a solo basis, the bank's net profit stood at Tk123.78 crore in the first half of 2026, down from Tk139.64 crore in the corresponding period of 2025.

In the second quarter, covering April-June, Trust Bank's consolidated net profit stood at Tk92.38 crore, down around 13% from Tk105.94 crore in the same quarter a year earlier.

The bank's consolidated net operating cash flow per share stood at Tk23.13 in the first half of 2026, compared with Tk26.43 in the January-June period of 2025.

Its net asset value (NAV) per share increased to Tk30.06 as of June 2026, from Tk27.04 a year earlier.

At the Dhaka Stock Exchange, Trust Bank shares closed at Tk15.70 each today (26 July), down 0.63% from the previous trading session.

In 2025, Trust Bank reported a profit of Tk372.32 crore.

Based on its 2025 profit, the bank recommended a 13% dividend for shareholders, comprising an 8% cash dividend and a 5% stock dividend.

The country's foreign exchange market has started to feel the pinch as recent changes to the interest rate cap on trade financing, along with the reimposition of tax on interest paid on offshore loans, have discouraged foreign borrowing, creating devaluation pressure that is already evident in the recent volatility of the dollar.

Bankers say the two policy changes have made foreign lenders more cautious, narrowed financing options for importers, and increased import costs.

The banking sector has been facing exchange rate volatility since early July, with the interbank dollar rate climbing to nearly Tk124 after remaining below Tk123 for about a year.

The central bank has also suspended dollar purchases from banks for the past one and a half months amid mounting depreciation pressure. In FY26, the central bank bought $6.4 billion when the taka was under appreciation pressure. Its last purchase was on 4 June.

Although the impact of the policy changes is not yet fully visible because of weak import demand amid a sluggish business environment, bankers warned of potential volatility in the dollar market if offshore funding becomes less attractive while export earnings and remittance remain insufficient to finance trade.

Shift from UPAS LCs to Sight LCs

Explaining the recent dollar volatility, the treasury head of a private commercial bank, who requested anonymity, said changes to the tax treatment of foreign borrowing have prompted many importers to shift from UPAS (Usance Payable at Sight) letters of credit (LCs) to Sight LCs to avoid the additional tax burden.

In the latest national budget, the government also reintroduced a 20% income tax on interest payments for offshore loans, ending the exemption granted in 2024. The tax was reimposed at a time when the country needs to attract greater inflows of overseas funds.

An offshore loan is a financing arrangement in which a borrower secures funds from a lender located in a foreign country, typically through an offshore banking unit.

Immediate payment requirements under Sight LCs would increase demand for US dollars, placing additional pressure on the foreign exchange market, the banker said.

He said a UPAS LC allows an importer to obtain short-term financing from a foreign bank, usually for 60 to 180 days. The foreign bank pays the exporter immediately, while the importer repays later. As this constitutes foreign borrowing, the interest is now subject to the reimposed tax.

By contrast, a Sight LC requires immediate payment once compliant documents are presented. As there is no extended financing period, it avoids the additional tax burden associated with UPAS financing.

The banker further said the tax has made UPAS financing less attractive, prompting importers to opt for Sight LCs despite the greater liquidity requirement.

However, the shift comes with higher immediate demand for US dollars because importers must arrange payment upfront instead of after 60-180 days. As a result, they need foreign currency immediately, increasing spot demand for dollars.

He said large importers can hedge part of their exposure through forward contracts, although the scope for such hedging is limited. Consequently, greater reliance on Sight LCs could add short-term pressure and volatility to the dollar market.

He added that while banks generally ensure dollar availability before opening a Sight LC, the shift away from UPAS financing could tighten foreign exchange liquidity and increase funding pressure on import-dependent businesses, particularly on commodities such as sugar and edible oil.

If cross-border borrowing declines because of the additional tax burden, the banker warned, the domestic foreign exchange market could come under further pressure. Unless export earnings and remittance inflows increase sufficiently, banks may have to rely more heavily on local dollar liquidity or arrange more expensive sources of foreign currency funding.

Interest rate ceiling

Another consequence is the central bank's 3% interest rate ceiling on short-term offshore borrowing, which has discouraged foreign lenders from extending credit to Bangladesh.

In April, the central bank instructed banks through a circular that interest rates on trade finance must not exceed SOFR plus 3%, tightening the previous ceiling of SOFR plus 4%.

Before the circular, banks could charge around 7.51% on UPAS LCs. Following the new cap, the rate has fallen to around 6.51%. By comparison, banks can charge 12% to 13% on local currency loans.

Soon after the circular was issued, the Association of Bankers Bangladesh (ABB) requested the Bangladesh Bank to revise the cap, warning that it could increase devaluation pressure because banks would be unable to meet short-term trade financing needs adequately.

The ABB also warned that interest rates on local currency loans could rise as demand for domestic borrowing increases. It said shortages of funds for short-term trade financing would increase the cost of doing business and keep inflation elevated, contrary to the central bank's policy objectives and the country's current economic needs.

Speaking to TBS, Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director of Mutual Trust Bank, said the 3% interest rate cap is making the business much less attractive for banks.

"We requested the central bank to reconsider it because everyone – including the IMF – is saying that the borrowing cost is already more than 2.5%," he said.

Cap on short-term trade finance concern for international lenders

The treasury head of another private commercial bank, who also requested anonymity, said long-term borrowing has remained largely unaffected, but the 3% cap on short-term trade finance has become a concern for international lenders.

Foreign banks have already begun renegotiating pricing with Bangladeshi banks, although the impact on borrowing volumes is not yet evident because demand for trade finance remains weak, he said.

The banker said the bigger concern is that correspondent banks view regulatory pricing caps as a departure from standard market practice. International lenders invest heavily in assessing country risk, allocating capital and building correspondent banking relationships. If lending rates are administratively capped, they may lose the incentive to provide financing or expand their exposure to Bangladesh, he added.

He further said if offshore funding becomes less attractive, importers may increasingly rely on direct buyer's credit or bill discounting from overseas financial institutions. However, the new Finance Act taxes interest on such cross-border financing, raising borrowing costs that are ultimately likely to be passed on to consumers.

He also warned that domestic banks could lose leverage in negotiating terms. Banks currently use their broader relationships with customers – including loans, deposits, payroll services and other business – when arranging trade finance. If financing shifts offshore, those relationships become fragmented, weakening local banks' bargaining power.

He added that importers forced to replace cheaper foreign currency borrowing with costlier local currency loans would face financing costs typically three to four percentage points higher, driving up the prices of imported goods.

Bangladesh Bank data show commercial banks' foreign deposits posted a net inflow of $391 million during July-May of FY26, compared with a net outflow of $1.14 billion in the same period a year earlier.

Although stronger foreign borrowing recently turned the balance positive, bankers expect inflows to weaken in the coming months because of the recent policy changes.

The US has imposed new tariffs on 60 trading partners, including Bangladesh, accounting for the vast majority of its imports, over claims they failed to properly stop forced labour.

The duties, ranging from 10 per cent to 12.5 per cent, target key economic partners– including the UK, China, the European Union, Canada, Japan and India.

They came into effect on Friday, as a temporary 10 per cent tax on foreign goods introduced earlier this year expired, reports BBC.

The move is the latest escalation in the global trade war reignited by US President Donald Trump when he returned to office last year.

The US Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that many of the tariffs imposed globally under emergency powers were illegally enacted.

The president has since sought other ways to pursue his flagship trade policy.

Last month, the White House proposed 10 per cent -12.5 per cent duties on imports from dozens of countries over concerns they were not doing enough to tackle forced labour.

On Thursday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, acting under Trump's direction, said those duties would now take effect.

"Today's action will begin to correct what is both a human rights abuse and a distortive trade practice to improve the welfare of workers everywhere," his statement said.

Greer invoked Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which governs US trade enforcement of practices that burden or restrict American commerce.

Earlier this week, the Trump administration invoked a different statute, Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, to impose 50 per cent tariffs on products from Canada.

On Thursday, the Office of the US Trade Representative said the latest tariffs were being imposed on partners "for their failure to impose and effectively enforce a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour".

The new duties apply to the top 60 US trade partners covering 99.4 per cent of US imports, it added.

The office said Trump had made adoption of a ban on imports produced with forced labour a "critical" part of reciprocal trade agreements with other nations.

It said so far 10 trading partners had agreed to enact such a ban in these agreements, and other countries had implemented bans in response to its investigations in recent weeks.

Trading partners that have "made commitments to adopt, and effectively enforce" bans on forced labour imports will be subject to a 10 per cent tariff, while those that have not will have the higher 12.5 per cent rate, the office added.

Greer said he was "encouraged by the trading partners who have moved quickly to adopt forced labour import prohibitions, and look[ed] forward to ensuring their effective enforcement".

The new levies show the Trump administration is "determined" to push on with its tariff strategy, said trade policy expert Deborah Elms from the Hinrich Foundation.

It is unlikely countries hit with tariffs will be able to prove that they have sufficient measures to prevent forced labour imports, she told the BBC.

The levies are likely to raise costs for businesses and consumers, although its impact could be softened due to the number of exempted goods, said the Asia Society Policy Institute's economic security expert Wendy Cutler.

Most trading partners will be disappointed with the new levies and are likely to focus on ways to "reduce their dependence on the US market" by making deals with other countries, Cutler added.

What have other countries said?

Some countries have responded to the announcement, including Brazil. Its government called the move "unjustified" and "arbitrary".

Washington has chosen to "manipulate an issue of great importance" to workers' rights to support its protectionist trade policy, Brazil's government said in a statement.

Brazil, which has been hit with a new 12.5 per cent US tariff, added that it will respond with measures under its "reciprocity law" and consider other trading partners.

Earlier this month, the US imposed a separate 25 per cent tariff on furniture, machinery, sugar and other imports from Brazil, while keeping exemptions of some goods, including beef and coffee.

The Japanese government said on Friday that it "regrets" the new US tariffs, saying that its trade is conducted in line with international rules.

Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said the levies were "completely unjustified" and that he will continue to press Washington to lift all duties on his country's goods.

China has previously said it opposed any form of unilateral tariff, and denied allegations of forced labour.

"There is no so-called forced labour in China, and we oppose using this as an excuse for political manipulation," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said.

But several international human rights groups have said forced labour does exist in China, particularly among Muslim ethnic minorities in Xinjiang.

Trump's signature policy

Trump has long argued that tariffs protect American workers and boost the US economy.

In April 2025, Trump imposed tariffs of up to 50 per cent on global trading partners on what he called "Liberation Day", aiming to address what he saw as unfair treatment of the US.

In February, the US Supreme Court struck down those tariffs and said the president had exceeded his authority, prompting tens of billions of dollars in refunds.

But the White House has since looked at alternative ways to impose import duties, including a sweeping 10 per cent levy as part of a temporary solution that expired on Friday.

Washington has also imposed other tariffs on countries like Brazil and Canada.

The US and China have also been embroiled in a tit-for-tat tariffs war, which is currently on hold.

Trump has used tariffs to press countries, such as Mexico, on non-trade issues.

The administration could be set to impose further tariffs as it is currently investigating 16 countries - accounting for the vast majority of US imports - over claims of manufacturing overcapacity.

Premier Bank PLC, a private sector lender, incurred a consolidated loss of Tk388.77 crore in the first half of 2026 as declining interest income and higher funding costs weighed on its financial performance.

The bank reported a loss per share of Tk3.15 for January-June 2026, according to its quarterly financial statements.

The losses widened significantly compared with the same period last year, when the bank posted a consolidated loss of Tk136.56 crore.

The bank's net interest income turned negative at Tk315.85 crore during the first half of 2026, meaning its expenses on deposits and borrowings exceeded income generated from investments.

Its investment income and other operating income declined during the period compared with the previous year. However, income from commission, exchange and brokerage activities showed a slight improvement

Premier Bank's consolidated net asset value stood at Tk1,288 crore at the end of June 2026, down from Tk2,532.84 crore in June 2025.

The bank's net operating cash flow per share improved to Tk9.75 in the first half of 2026, compared with a negative Tk7.64 during the same period last year.

Explaining the decline in net asset value, the bank said it resulted from increased operating losses. The improvement in cash flow per share was mainly due to higher borrowing from other banks and financial agents.

Premier Bank incurred a loss of Tk992.59 crore in 2025, with a loss per share of Tk8.05. Due to continued losses, the bank has not paid dividends to shareholders.

The bank's shares closed at Tk5.30 each on the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (23 July).

Consumer electronics and home appliance manufacturer Singer Bangladesh Limited returned to quarterly profitability in the second quarter of 2026, supported by improved operating performance and lower finance costs.

However, the company remained in losses during the first half of the year as weak consumer demand, higher costs and challenging market conditions continued to affect its overall performance.

According to a price-sensitive information (PSI) disclosure published today (23 July), Singer's board approved its unaudited financial statements for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.

The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of Tk1.36 for the April-June quarter, recovering from a loss per share of Tk3.11 during the same period last year.

For the January-June period, Singer posted a loss per share of Tk4.24, though the loss narrowed from Tk6.61 recorded in the same period of 2025.

Singer's share price closed at Tk76.90 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange today.

The company's net asset value per share turned negative at Tk2.55 as of 30 June 2026, compared with a positive Tk1.69 at the end of December 2025. Meanwhile, net operating cash flow per share declined to Tk5.49 in the first half of 2026 from Tk12.52 a year earlier.

Singer said its second-quarter revenue increased 3.4% year-on-year to Tk8.4 billion, up from Tk8.1 billion in the same quarter last year. However, sales remained below expectations due to weak demand in the consumer electronics market.

The company attributed the slowdown to persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and unfavourable weather conditions that reduced consumer spending.

Although gross profit margins improved slightly, intense price competition prevented the company from fully passing higher costs on to customers.

Operating profit increased 10.7% year-on-year, helping Singer achieve a pre-tax profit of Tk140.8 million in the second quarter, compared with a pre-tax loss of Tk279.1 million in the same period last year.

Finance costs also declined 35.8%, mainly due to exchange rate stability.

Despite the quarterly recovery, Singer faced pressure on working capital. Inventory increased 9.2% as sales remained below expectations, while short-term borrowings rose 19% from December 2025.

Trade receivables surged 77.1% due to higher dealer credit sales and slower collections amid weak economic activity.

Singer said its operating cash flow was affected by dealer financing, seasonal business patterns and extended credit facilities. The company expects cash flow to improve from the third quarter as business conditions recover.

South Korean memory chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will supply US tech companies, including Nvidia, in agreements worth $950 billion, a presidential adviser said on Saturday.

The announcement was made as President Lee Jae Myung visited San Francisco for talks with the heads of major US technology companies, including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei and Broadcom’s Hock Tan.

The two South Korean chip giants and US tech companies agreed to “pursue cooperation” in the sector, presidential chief of staff for policy Kim Yong-beom told reporters in San Francisco while accompanying Lee.

South Korea is home to the world’s leading memory chipmakers, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, whose advanced memory chips are essential to the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence industry and have fuelled optimism about the country’s economic outlook.

The announcement includes SK hynix’s planned five-year cooperation agreement to supply $750 billion worth of memory chips to companies including Nvidia, Kim said.

It also includes a $200 billion memorandum of understanding between Samsung Electronics and Broadcom covering the supply of advanced memory chips and foundry services for AI chip production over the next five years, he said.

South Korea has pledged to triple spending on AI this year, aiming to join the United States and China as one of the world’s top powers in the sector.

SK hynix and Samsung Electronics are among the world’s three leading advanced memory chipmakers, along with US-based Micron.

Such chips, called high-bandwidth memory (HBM), are used in AI processors alongside powerful silicon known as GPUs to generate chatbot responses or realistic images.

The AI boom has also fuelled worker demands over pay packages, with Samsung averting a major strike in May by agreeing a deal on bonuses with its largest union.

Samsung and Broadcom plan to “pursue a strategic collaboration for the supply of industry-leading memory solutions, including HBM, supporting Broadcom’s next-generation AI accelerators”, Samsung said in a statement.

SK hynix and Nvidia also aim to “accelerate large-scale AI infrastructure development”, the South Korean firm said.

The two firms “will co-develop and optimize next-generation AI memory solutions, including HBM, to meet evolving infrastructure demands ranging from large language model training to physical AI”, it said in a statement.

Bangladesh has slipped behind Vietnam to become the world's third-largest garment exporter, former BGMEA President Faruque Hassan claimed today (25 July), warning that the country's flagship export sector is losing competitiveness amid mounting financial, policy and operational challenges.

"We must work together to regain the position," Faruque said at a programme organised by the Bangladesh Packaging Accessories Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BPAMEA) ahead of its board election.

Although the latest World Trade Organization report still ranks Bangladesh as the world's second-largest garment exporter in 2025, with Vietnam a close third, business leaders at the event said the sector is facing one of its most critical periods in recent years.

They cited rising production costs, financial constraints, policy uncertainty and administrative bottlenecks as key pressures threatening the industry's competitiveness.

Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) President Showkat Aziz Russell said manufacturers were grappling with multiple crises, including financial and safety challenges, warning that conditions could worsen. He also cautioned against relaxing restrictions on free-of-cost (FOC) imports and imposing value-addition requirements on exports, arguing that the measures could encourage imports rather than local sourcing. He urged the government to support domestic manufacturers through incentives.

Bangladesh Employers' Federation (BEF) President Fazlee Shamim Ehsan echoed the concerns, saying the apparel industry was "passing through a terrible time" – a sentiment shared by other business leaders.

Customs graft allegations add to industry's concerns

Former BPAMEA President Moazzem Hossain Moti alleged that corruption in Customs has become a major burden for exporters, claiming businesses are forced to pay bribes to renew bonded warehouse licences.

"Even a small business that imports only 50 tonnes of raw materials a year has to pay Tk20 lakh in bribes. Otherwise, the file is not renewed," he said, urging the authorities to expose and take action against those responsible.

BPAMEA President Md Shahriar echoed the concern, describing Customs as one of the biggest obstacles facing businesses.

The remarks came ahead of the BPAMEA board election on 1 August, where Shahriar is leading the Oikko Parishad panel comprising 25 director candidates.

After more than a decade of delay, construction of the long-awaited Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone (CEIZ) in Chattogram's Anwara is finally set to begin tomorrow.

Authorities expect the project to attract around $500 million in foreign direct investment (FDI) and create more than 1 lakh direct and indirect jobs.

The groundbreaking ceremony for the economic zone will be held at 10am at the project site in Anwara, marking the formal start of the construction of the zone's core infrastructure.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed, Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen, and Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (Beza) Executive Chairman Ashik Chowdhury are expected to attend the event.

The government-to-government project is being developed on around 800 acres of land and is considered one of Bangladesh's flagship initiatives to deepen economic cooperation with China while expanding the country's export-oriented manufacturing base. The project is expected to be completed by 31 December 2031.

Business leaders have welcomed the government's move to expedite the long-delayed project, saying it could significantly boost investment, employment, and industrial growth.

Amirul Haque, president of the Chittagong Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI), hoped a dedicated economic zone for Chinese companies would further strengthen trade and economic partnership between the two countries. "Besides creating employment opportunities, the zone will help expand international trade and attract more foreign investment," he told The Business Standard.

SM Abu Tayyab, a director of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said the zone will bring substantial benefits to the country's readymade garment industry.

"We import fabrics, accessories and other raw materials from China, which increases both lead time and production costs. If Chinese manufacturers produce and supply these inputs from the economic zone in Chattogram, it will save both time and money, reduce production costs and enhance the competitiveness of our apparel sector," he said.

Officials said the zone is expected to host Chinese as well as domestic and other foreign investors in sectors such as advanced textiles, pharmaceuticals, light engineering, information technology and other export-oriented industries.

Major General (Retd) Md Nazrul Islam, executive member (planning and development) at Beza, said the project is scheduled for completion by 31 December 2031.

"Although the implementation period is five years, we expect to make at least 60% of the industrial plots ready for factory construction within the first three years," he said.

Fresh momentum after PM's China visit

The project gathered pace following Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's official visit to China on 22-26 June, during which the two countries signed several investment-related deals.

On 25 June, Beza exchanged a developer agreement with China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) for the development of the economic zone.

Following the visit, Ambassador Yao Wen said the long-delayed project had achieved tangible progress, with almost all required documentation completed within four months of the new government's tenure. According to him, more than 30 Chinese companies have already committed around $500 million in investment for the zone.

The ambassador also said meetings between the prime minister and leading Chinese companies in Beijing and Dalian generated strong investment interest, describing the progress of CEIZ as a signal that Bangladesh is open for Chinese investment.

Tk4,189cr infrastructure project

The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) approved a Tk4,189 crore supporting infrastructure project for the economic zone on 16 June, shortly before the prime minister's China visit.

Under the arrangement, the Chinese government will provide Tk2,467 crore through concessional financing, while the Bangladesh government will fund the remaining amount.

The supporting infrastructure includes a 1,235-metre jetty link road, a 330-metre bridge, a 1,181-metre four-lane road, a 25-million-litre Central Effluent Treatment Plant (CETP), a 20,000 deadweight-tonne multipurpose jetty, gas transmission facilities, power substations and transmission lines, water reservoirs, and nearly 12 kilometres of boundary wall.

Strategic location

Located near the Karnaphuli Tunnel, Chattogram Port and Shah Amanat International Airport, the economic zone is expected to benefit from strong transport and logistics connectivity, making it an attractive destination for export-oriented industries.

The government believes the project will play a key role in accelerating industrialisation, creating employment and increasing foreign investment inflows.

Bangladesh and China signed a memorandum of understanding on the project in 2014, while land acquisition was completed in 2016.

However, the project remained stalled for years due to delays in appointing a developer, finalising financing arrangements and resolving administrative issues.

Initially, China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) was considered for the role of developer, but negotiations did not progress.

In 2022, the Chinese government nominated CRBC to take over the development of the project, paving the way for its implementation.

Real effective exchange rate (REER) in Bangladesh rose to a seven-month high of 103.10 by June count, up 0.67 per cent from 102.41 in May, with its domino effect on the country's external trade. Bangladesh market analysis

According to data released Thursday by Bangladesh Bank, the REER has been on an upward trajectory since March after falling to 101.43 in February. The increase coincided with the taka-dollar exchange rate having reached Tk 122.95 per US dollar in June.

The higher REER indicates that the local currency remained overvalued against the currencies of Bangladesh's major trading partners despite its gradual depreciation against the greenback.

The local currency weakened by around 0.11 per cent against the dollar in June compared to the previous month.

Market participants say the exchange rate would have been around Tk 126.65 per dollar in June had it fully reflected market fundamentals. Trade capacity planning

However, the central bank appears to have sought to avoid a sharper depreciation because of its potential impact on import costs and domestic inflation.

While many analysts believe a REER reading in the range of 100-103 does not warrant immediate concern, one central banker, requesting anonymity, has said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may view the taka as still being overvalued.

"The IMF would probably prefer the REER to decline to around 95 to improve Bangladesh's export competitiveness. It has often argued that the central bank should allow greater exchange-rate flexibility rather than influencing the market," he said.

An exporter from the apparel sector said businesses had incurred exchange-rate losses during periods of sharp movements in the taka value.

Economists say an overvalued exchange rate has long been regarded as one of the factors affecting the competitiveness of Bangladesh's exports.

According to Bangladesh Bank data, the taka depreciated by 0.60 per cent against the US dollar at the end of FY2025-26 compared to the end of the previous fiscal year.

Experts attribute the rise in the REER largely to Bangladesh's persistently higher inflation relative to its major trading partners, where inflation has generally remained between 2.0 per cent and 3.0 per cent compared to around 9.0 per cent in Bangladesh.

"In my view, higher inflation is the principal reason behind the increase in the REER," said Dr Md. Ezazul Islam, Director-General of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM).

He thinks Bangladesh would need either to bring inflation under control or allow the aka to depreciate further to restore external competitiveness.

The Bangladesh Bank calculates the REER using a 17-currency basket (base: FY2023-24 = 100), taking into account the country's trade and remittance flows.

Heidelberg Materials Bangladesh PLC, a leading multinational cement manufacturer, has reported a significant financial downturn for the first half of 2026, swinging into a net loss due to shrinking profit margins and a decline in sales volume.

According to the company's price-sensitive statement released today (25 July), the firm incurred a consolidated net loss of Tk11 crore during the January-June period, a sharp reversal from the Tk22.30 crore net profit recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.

The company's revenue for the first six months of the year dropped by 11% to Tk684 crore, down from the previous year's levels. This poor performance resulted in a loss per share of Tk1.96.

The company's balance sheet also showed signs of strain, with the net asset value (NAV) per share settling at Tk70.86, while the net operating cash flow per share turned negative at Tk0.89, highlighting tightening liquidity.

The deterioration in earnings was also evident in the second quarter alone. During the April-June period of 2026, the company's turnover edged down by 5% to Tk321 crore. Consequently, it posted a quarterly net loss of Tk6.13 crore, compared to a net profit of Tk2.65 crore in the same quarter of the previous year. The loss per share for the three-month period stood at Tk1.09.

Management attributed the losses primarily to a lower profit margin per tonne of cement produced and a general slowdown in sales volume amidst a competitive and challenging market environment.

In 2025, the company had distributed an 11% cash dividend, a significant drop from the 25% cash dividend paid in 2024.

Shares of Heidelberg Materials closed 0.82% lower at Tk231 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange today.