The World Bank on Tuesday called on developing countries to embrace artificial intelligence technology tools to deliver better governance outcomes, warning that they risked being left behind if they failed to do so.

“AI has thrown developing economies a lifeline, and they should seize it,” Indermit Gill, chief economist of the World Bank Group, said as the organization launched its annual World Development Report.

“They do not need large models or big data centers to reap its benefits,” he added, advocating for the adaptation of lower-cost AI tools to local conditions to deliver results in the health, education, justice and agricultural sectors.

Advanced AI models -- largely developed in the United States and China -- offer the ability to quickly analyze data and automate many tasks that otherwise take skilled humans longer to do.

These AI models, however, require huge data centers and large amounts of complex computing power, using massive amounts of electricity and water -- with implications for climate change.

“Developing economies today are in the midst of their weakest average growth performance in three decades,” said a World Bank statement accompanying the report. “AI could significantly boost that performance before the end of the 2020s while delivering tangible benefits to people.”

The report calls for countries to use AI to “help extend otherwise costly medical, legal, educational, and agricultural services to underserved billions -- doing in a decade what might otherwise take a century.”

Lower-income countries have struggled through the 2020s, hit by a series of successive shocks that saw the World Bank earlier this year dub it a “lost decade” for their economic growth.

The Bank has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to its lowest level since the pandemic, with the economic fallout of the Iran war battering countries around the world.

The shock has hit low-income and developing countries hardest, with Asia the worst-affected region.

The Bank’s new report advocates for developing countries to start working with localized AI tools and solutions now, and to invest in electricity generation and distribution; expand access to computing power; and improve the availability of local data.

“The window to get this right is narrow,” said Gaurav Nayyar, director of the report.

“AI presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to solve problems that have resisted solutions for generations,” he added.

For the 6.8 billion people -- 83 percent of humanity -- who live in low-income and developing countries, AI tools will need to be adapted to meet their needs.

The report shares examples of AI applications in governance, such as to increase diabetes screening volumes in Bangladesh, or in reducing costs for Indian farmers through advanced weather forecasts.

The solutions, the report stresses, will need to meet people where they are.

“For example, AI solutions will need to be delivered through voice calls on basic mobile phones for those who cannot read or afford smartphones,” it says.

“Simply importing an AI model does not mean it will work well locally.”

The report calls for policymakers to also build public trust as they expand AI use.

“Improved public services and better learning outcomes in schools will reinforce trust -- but if AI embeds bias in government decisions or erodes data privacy, that trust will be difficult to recover,” said the statement.

The report delivers a stark warning, too: “AI could widen gaps between countries, increase inequality within them, concentrate market power, weaken trust in public institutions, and create new risks for safety, rights, and social cohesion.”

And while risks to employment in developing countries are low at the moment, it warns that in the long run AI tools could cut off economic mobility by eliminating many of the middle-class jobs that enable it.

The report was written with the aid of several of the world’s most advanced AI tools, including offerings from OpenAI, DeepSeek, Google and Anthropic, according to a disclosure.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has ended the fiscal year 2025-26 with revenue that is Tk 875 billion short of the target set in the budget.
Advertisement

The government had little choice but to increase revenue collection in the face of macroeconomic pressure, but now – six months into the BNP government’s tenure – the data indicates that tax collectors have had limited success doing so.

A number of factors - such as the stalling of development projects following the 2024 July Uprising, stagnation of business and trade, deterioration in law and order, and global economic headwinds – have disrupted supply chains and contributed to the shortfall.

Updated data from the NBR released on Tuesday says that the agency collected a total of Tk 4.15 trillion in revenue from the three main sectors - customs, VAT, and income tax - in FY26.

The target was to collect Tk 5.03 trillion.

As a result, the revenue deficit for the fiscal year stands at around Tk 875.27 billion.
However, despite the inability to reach the revenue collection target, the NBR has seen overall growth in revenue.

The revenue collection figure is 12.03 percent higher year-on-year.

The total revenue collection of the NBR for FY25 was around Tk 3.71 trillion.

The revised budget had set a target of collecting Tk 5.03 trillion through the NBR, which the initial budget had set at Tk 4.99 trillion.

Most economists and organisations and institutions have described the revenue collection target set in the current fiscal year's budget, based on the revenue collection trend of the outgoing fiscal year, as “ambitious”.

It was believed that revenue growth of about 45 to 50 percent from the amount collected in the outgoing fiscal year would be required to reach the budget’s target.

There, however, had been little data on how much revenue had been collected within that time frame.

Now, with the latest revenue collection data available, it is clear that the NBR will need revenue collection growth of 45.38 percent to reach its Tk 6.04 trillion revenue collection target for FY27.

Looking at past data, the NBR has never seen such a huge jump in revenue in a year.

The agency’s revenue collection is usually done while accounting for inflation and GDP growth. Accordingly, in years where the agency has made significant progress, the jump in revenue is about 10-15 percent.

How Much Was Collected in Which Sector?

The highest growth in NBR's revenue collection in the outgoing fiscal year was the income tax sector.

This includes company tax, travel tax and tax at source.

In FY26, the total revenue collected by the NBR from the income tax and travel tax sector was around Tk 1.46 trillion, up from approximately Tk 1.3 trillion in 2024-25.

This means record revenue growth of 12.80 percent was achieved in the income tax sector.

Typically, Bangladesh’s largest source of revenue is from the value added tax, or VAT, sector.

The total revenue from this sector in the outgoing fiscal year was around Tk 1.58 trillion.

The NBR data says the amount in 2024-25 was approximately Tk 1.42 trillion, which means revenue collection grew 11.8 percent year on year.

The revenue from the import and export duty sector in the outgoing fiscal year was around 1.12 trillion, which was around Tk 1.1 trillion in the previous fiscal year.

Private-sector credit growth has fallen to a record low, underscoring the fragile state of the country’s economic recovery despite a series of regulatory measures by the central bank.

Bankers and economists attribute the sharp slowdown to mounting bad loans, persistent energy shortages, high borrowing costs and a deteriorating business climate that has dampened investment appetite.

According to the central bank, private-sector credit growth fell to 4.47 per cent by the end of June, the lowest level in Bangladesh’s history. The previous record low was 4.72 per cent, registered in March 2026.

In value terms, total outstanding loans to the private sector stood at Tk 18.26 trillion at the end of June, up 4.47 per cent from Tk 17.48 trillion a year earlier.

In fact, private-sector credit growth has remained in single digits since August 2024, reflecting prolonged weakness in the country’s US$500-billion economy, which is largely driven by the private sector.

June’s credit growth was also well below the Bangladesh Bank’s projection of 5.50 per cent outlined in its latest monetary policy statement released on 30 June 2026.

To revive the economy after months of sluggishness, the central bank has introduced several support measures, including a Tk 600-billion stimulus package aimed at restarting stalled manufacturing activities, easing the exit policy for classified borrowers and providing other forms of regulatory support.

However, these policy initiatives have so far done little to restore confidence among private-sector investors, as reflected in the latest central bank data. Seeking anonymity, a Bangladesh Bank official said the central bank had introduced various regulatory measures to revive investment and economic growth, but many of the incentives, including the stimulus package, have yet to be implemented.

He added that the banking regulator had recently cut the policy rate by 50 basis points to 9.50 per cent in an effort to encourage private investment.

“If the stimulus package is implemented properly and the ongoing energy crisis in the industrial hubs is resolved quickly, private-sector credit growth will certainly begin to recover,” the central banker said.

President of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), Mohammad Hatem, said entrepreneurs were struggling to survive under the prevailing adverse business and investment climate, particularly because of the persistent gas and electricity shortages.

He said the energy crisis had become so severe that many entrepreneurs had been forced to suspend operations temporarily.

Citing his own factory as an example, Mr Hatem said international buyers had reduced one-third of their orders over concerns about delays in shipment deliveries.

“Under such circumstances, who will think about investment or business expansion?” he asked.

Managing Director of Fareast Knitting & Dyeing Industries, Asif Moyeen, said one of the company’s foreign buyers was due to visit next month to assess its production capacity.

“They want to know whether we will be able to deliver shipments on time,” he said, adding that the company could lose orders if the energy crisis persisted.

Managing Director of Shahjalal Islami Bank, Mosleh Uddin Ahmed, said many people blamed high lending rates for the decline in private-sector borrowing. “Yes, it is one of the factors, but not the main one. The biggest challenge is the energy crisis, which must be resolved as quickly as possible,” he said.

He suggested that the issue be addressed through an inter-ministerial meeting and that a comprehensive action plan be formulated to revive the economy.

Director General of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM), Dr Md Ezazul Islam, said private-sector credit growth of around 5.0 per cent was not necessarily undesirable if the funds were channelled into productive sectors.

Bangladesh hopes to procure liquefied natural gas from next-door neighbour Myanmar in 12-hour transportation once a much-expected LNG sales-and-purchase deal is done, as the country faces exigencies of energy.
Advertisement

Currently, the country sources LNG from the United States, Australia and Angola wherefrom import consignments take 15 to 30 days.

It, however, takes around six to seven days to import the fuel from the nearest sources in Middle-Eastern countries.

But Bangladesh has not got LNG from its Mideast sources -- QatarEnergy and OQ Trading -- over the past several months as they have stopped supplying the gas by enforcing 'force majeure' since late February immediate after the war between the USA and Iran broke out.

"If both countries agree and settle price negotiations, Bangladesh will be able to import LNG from Myanmar within 12 hours -- the shortest possible time to import the fuel," Iqbal Hasan Mahmood, Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources (MPEMR), told The Financial Express on Tuesday.

"We have proposed importing gas from neighbouring Myanmar through pipeline or as LNG," he said.

"I made the proposal on Sunday after having the green signal from Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to import gas from our neighbour, which is a gas-rich country in this region, to resolve our mounting natural-gas crisis," said the minister.

Myanmar has around 40 per cent of gas of its own in various oil-and gas-exploration projects being implemented under partnership with Chinese, Korean, Indian and Thai energy companies, from where the country can export LNG to Bangladesh, said the Bangladeshi minister.

The option was discussed during a meeting with Myanmar's ambassador in Bangladesh, Kyaw Soe Moe, on Sunday at the secretariat.

As a close neighbour, Bangladesh is prioritising enhanced energy cooperation with Myanmar, he said, as industries, households and other consumers are in a crying need for gas amid a fuel crunch.

Importing LNG from Myanmar could further cut Bangladesh's dependence on the volatile spot market, he added.

Bangladesh has significant domestic demand for natural gas, and the government is particularly interested in sourcing energy from Myanmar via pipeline in the long term and as LNG in the short term, Mahmood said.

Meanwhile, the Myanmar ambassador welcomed Bangladesh's proposal and said supplying gas as LNG would be the easiest way for energy cooperation between the two bordering countries.

The envoy suggested that the matter could be reviewed at a Bangladesh-Myanmar joint technical-committee meeting.

The minister also extended a formal invitation to Myanmar's energy minister to visit Bangladesh and expressed his own willingness to undertake a trip to Myanmar to discuss the gas import. Bilateral energy cooperation could play a supportive role in establishing the proposed China-Myanmar-Bangladesh corridor, which was discussed during the Bangladeshi prime minister's recent visit to China, the energy minister said.

Currently, Myanmar exports gas to Thailand and China through pipelines.

Bangladesh is currently struggling to meet its gas demand amid elevated LNG prices, and as contracted long-term LNG suppliers continue to restrict scheduled cargo deliveries.

Due to disruptions to long- and short-term LNG supply, Bangladesh's LNG spot cargo purchases this year are set to reach 41 by August, 39 of which have come after the start of the war in the Middle East.

In addition to limited contractual supplies due to the war in the Middle East, Bangladesh is currently facing a restriction in natural gas supply following the abrupt shutdown of operations at one of its two FSRUs on July 21.

Bangladesh's overall natural gas supply fell to about 2,139 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) on August 2, with 493mmcfd of regasified LNG, down from the pre-accident level of 2,642mmcfd, according to official Petrobangla data.

The country's natural gas demand is about 4,000mmcfd, according to Petrobangla, which far outstrips the availability from domestic production and imports.

Gas-fired power plants are the worst hit, with electricity generation of about 2,500 megawatts being affected due to the FSRU disruption, state-owned Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) Chairman Md Rezaul Karim said.

The gas-fired power plants are currently receiving about 680mmcfd, down from about 950mmcfd in the pre-accident period, he said.

The shutdown of the FSRU has reduced gas pressure in many areas, disrupting industrial production, too, he said.

Although the deadline for filing income tax returns was extended four times until March, the return filing rate fell in fiscal year 2025-26 from a year earlier.

It was also the lowest in nearly a decade, except in FY22, when the economy was emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic, which disrupted personal incomes and business activity.
Only about 38 percent of registered taxpayers, including companies, filed income tax returns in FY26, highlighting a persistent gap between taxpayer registration and compliance despite a growing number of taxpayer identification number (TIN) holders.

Tax experts and business leaders attribute the low filing rate to two factors: an outdated and inflated TIN database containing many inactive registrants, and weak enforcement that leaves many eligible taxpayers outside the tax net.

To improve compliance, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) has introduced year-round return filing under the new Income Tax Act, strengthened enforcement and, most recently, offered a tax rebate of up to 5 percent for early filers.

Whether those measures will significantly improve compliance remains to be seen, experts say.

NBR data show the number of TIN holders rose 11 percent to 1.30 crore by June 2026 from 1.17 crore a year earlier. Yet only 49.55 lakh returns were filed, meaning nearly 62 percent of registered TIN holders did not submit returns despite repeated deadline extensions.

Income tax collection nevertheless rose 13.2 percent year-on-year to Tk 1.46 lakh crore in FY26 from Tk 1.29 lakh crore.

The stronger growth in tax revenue despite weaker return filing suggests collections still rely heavily on tax deducted or collected at source and advance tax payments rather than voluntary compliance.

The corporate picture is similar. Of 1.60 lakh corporate TIN holders, only 42,000 filed returns in FY26, up from 39,659 a year earlier.

Corporate income tax contributes about a quarter of total tax revenue. Yet collections amount to only 1.5 to 1.8 percent of GDP, roughly half the level in peer economies, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and below several small Latin American and Caribbean economies.

The shortfall leaves the government more dependent on VAT, customs duties and borrowing, with the burden ultimately falling on ordinary people.
Image

WHY COMPLIANCE LAGS

Both Kamran T Rahman, president of the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), and Snehasish Barua, director of SMAC Advisory Services Limited, attribute much of the mismatch to an outdated database.

Many TINs were issued not because their holders had taxable income, but because a TIN is required to buy land, register property, open a bank account, obtain a credit card or secure a loan, Kamran said.

Others belong to people who have since died, left the country or become inactive, yet their records have never been removed.

“The database should be updated regularly so that inactive TINs are removed. That will give a more realistic picture of the country’s active taxpayer base,” he told The Daily Star on Saturday.

The two, however, differ on priorities.

Kamran said even the return-filer count overstates compliance because many returns show zero tax due. The priority, he argued, should be expanding the pool of active taxpayers rather than increasing the number of TIN holders, or “the burden will keep falling on existing compliant taxpayers.”

Snehasish, by contrast, said cleaning up the database alone would not solve the deeper problem. A large pool of eligible taxpayers remains outside the net, and the real solution is enforcing existing rules, particularly the mandatory Proof of Submission of Return (PSR) requirement under Section 264 of the Income Tax Act.
Google News LinkFor all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.

City corporations renewing trade licences, banks accepting large term deposits or opening letters of credit, and chambers issuing memberships should require a PSR wherever the law mandates it.

“The NBR needs to first run awareness sessions and then work closely with these institutions to enforce the existing provisions.”

Both Kamran and Snehasish were sceptical that the NBR’s year-round filing option and incentives for early filers would move the needle.

“People who already file returns will continue to do so,” Snehasish said.

“The incentives may encourage some small taxpayers, but they are unlikely to persuade habitual non-filers or large taxpayers.”

Kamran agreed. He said that without a fully digitised tax administration and firmer enforcement, the tax net is expanding, but the pace is still too slow.

NBR’S POSITION

Md Rafiqul Islam Chowdhury, NBR member for tax survey and inspection, pushed back against interpreting the low filing rate as evidence of widespread tax evasion, echoing concerns raised by Snehasish and Kamran about the TIN database.

A significant share of TINs, he said, likely belongs to people who have died but whose records have not been purged, or to people who obtained TINs for credit cards or bank loans without ever having a filing obligation.

Rafiqul said business closures in recent years have also contributed to the low filing rate, as many taxpayers have since become inactive.

He added that thousands of teachers and other professionals were brought into the tax net through administrative drives, but many may no longer be filing returns.

To improve compliance, the NBR has introduced year-round return filing under the new Income Tax Act and strengthened enforcement. Tax offices can now simultaneously issue notices requiring taxpayers to file returns and impose penalties on non-filers.

Rafiqul expressed optimism that year-round filing, stronger enforcement and incentives for early filers would encourage more taxpayers to submit returns in the coming years as Bangladesh seeks to raise its tax-to-GDP ratio, one of the lowest in South Asia.

Gold rose more than 2 percent on Wednesday to a one-month high as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal tempered some inflation concerns, while investors awaited key US jobs data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Spot gold climbed 2.2 percent to $4,164.13 per ounce by 0836 GMT, its highest level since July 7. US gold futures rose 1.7 percent to $4,223.60.
US President Donald Trump said his administration had “very good discussions” with Iran during all-day negotiations on Tuesday, fuelling expectations of an imminent end to the five-month conflict.

“There are increasing signs of a Gulf ceasefire deal, which means Treasury yields are moving lower on easing inflation worries, which helps make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive,” said Jamie Dutta, a market analyst at trading platform Nemo.money.

The US dollar remained under pressure, making greenback-priced metals more attractive to holders of other currencies, while yields on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note fell to a one-week low.

Gold tends to lose its appeal in a high interest-rate environment despite its status as an inflation hedge, as it yields no interest.

Traders are now pricing in a 59 percent probability of a September rate hike, down from 67 percent a day earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid said on Tuesday that some sort of monetary policy tightening is needed to get “too high” inflation back to the 2 percent target.

“Concerns about the Fed’s credibility will probably ease as the central bank raises interest rates over the coming months. That would result in gold prices falling and settling below $4,000 per ounce before the end of this year,” said Hamad Hussain, a climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.

In focus now is the ADP employment report due at 1215 GMT and the July nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for Friday.

The Bangladesh Bank has removed the long-standing loan disbursement ceilings on five key corporate branches of state-owned Sonali Bank PLC, allowing them to resume lending to large and eligible borrowers subject to due diligence.

The central bank withdrew the restrictions following a recent application by the bank, removing credit caps on Sonali Bank's Local Office, Foreign Exchange Corporate Branch, Shilpa Bhaban Corporate Branch and Shaheed Abrar Fahad Avenue Corporate Branch in Dhaka, as well as the Laldighi Corporate Branch in Chattogram.

Before the latest directive, the branches were subject to lending limits ranging from Tk5 crore to Tk20 crore, depending on the branch. With the restrictions now lifted, the branches can sanction larger loans after conducting the required scrutiny of borrowers.

Following the removal of these barriers, all branches under the state-owned lender are now empowered to process and issue loans to qualified clients in accordance with standard risk-assessment guidelines.

The Bangladesh Bank has eased import declaration requirements for intercompany transactions, allowing importers to conduct business with their parent companies, approved foreign subsidiaries and branch offices under enhanced transparency and compliance conditions.

The central bank issued the revised instructions through Foreign Exchange Policy Department today (4 August), amending the earlier requirement that importers must declare they have no direct or indirect connection or financial interest in foreign exporters, reports BSS.

The circular said the change was introduced in recognition of the fact that many international trade transactions are legitimately conducted between related companies.

Under the revised rules, importers engaged in intercompany transactions must declare that the transactions are conducted on an arm's length basis at competitive market prices and comply with all applicable transfer pricing regulations, relevant laws and Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) standards.

In such cases, the declaration previously required under clause 1(c) of the prescribed IMP Form regarding the absence of any relationship between the importer and the exporter will no longer be applicable. Bangladesh Bank has amended the IMP Form accordingly.

The central bank directed Authorized Dealers (ADs) to obtain the required declarations before processing import transactions.

The US trade deficit narrowed slightly in June, government data showed on Tuesday, with both imports and exports contracting over the month before.

The overall trade gap came in at $73.3 billion, down 5.6 percent from May on the back of a bigger decrease in imports than exports.

The data missed expectations slightly, with Briefing.com forecasting the deficit to come in at $69.6 billion.

US President Donald Trump has sought to remake the global trade order since taking office last year, imposing a raft of sometimes eyewatering tariffs on Washington’s friends and foes alike.

Some of the tariffs have been withdrawn after being contested in court. His latest salvo faced a similar challenge earlier this week in the New York-based Court of International Trade.

The Republican billionaire has made narrowing the US trade gap by increasing exports while onshoring industries and manufacturing a key promise of this term.

In June, imports came in at $388 billion, down $7.3 billion from the month before, while exports dropped $2.9 billion compared to May.

The reduction in exports saw the biggest drop coming from crude oil and fuel oil, as energy prices fell on the back of positive negotiations in the US war on Iran in June.

Trump’s war on Iran has roiled global energy markets as Tehran’s retaliatory action has virtually closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally travels.

Iran has also hit Washington’s Gulf allies with missile and drone attacks, affecting key energy production facilities.

Over the course of 2026 so far, the US goods and services deficit has decreased by 33.8 percent compared to the same period in 2025, mostly off the back of a 11.7 percent increase in exports.

The Indian rupee rose to its highest level in a month on Wednesday, buoyed by lower oil prices and a weaker dollar, while forward premiums dropped ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision.

The currency opened 0.5 percent higher at 94.92 per US dollar, its highest level since July 1, and has been moving in the 94.92-95.02 range in early trade.

The Brent crude oil benchmark tumbled 5.2 percent on Tuesday, extending losses by another 1 percent in Asian trade amid comments from Qatari and US officials that fuelled hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the months-long Iran conflict.

The latest decline in crude oil prices reinforced the rupee’s positive bias, which has been building over recent sessions. Despite the recent momentum, traders said the break past the 95-per-dollar mark came as a surprise.

“I hadn’t expected the 95 level to give way,” a currency trader at a private-sector bank said.

“It appears the underlying trend has become so supportive that positive developments are having a bigger impact (on lifting the rupee) than they normally would.”

The decline in oil prices comes ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision due shortly, where it is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

Traders expect the policy outcome to have only a limited impact on the rupee, with oil prices, the dollar and RBI FX intervention seen as dominant drivers of the currency in the near-term.

Dollar/rupee forward premiums eased ahead of the policy decision, largely tracking the move in the spot market.

The one-year implied yield fell 4 basis points to 2.82 percent.

Bumper oil refining profits triggered by the Iran war are turbocharging Big Oil’s earnings, breathing new life into a business many investors had largely written off.

The sector looks poised to produce unusually strong returns for several years, but long-term structural changes in oil consumption mean refining’s star will likely fade quickly.

Despite occupying a critical position in the global energy supply chain, refining has long been the least glamorous corner of the oil business.

Western oil majors have steadily retreated from the sector over the past two decades, deterred by high operating costs, notoriously volatile margins, rising carbon costs and growing competition from state-backed refiners in the Middle East, Africa and Asia.

That retreat accelerated in the late 2010s, particularly in Europe, as governments and companies increasingly bet that rapid electric vehicle adoption would curb fuel demand by the 2030s, reducing the need for new refining investment.

As a result, Western oil giants’ refining capacity shrank dramatically.

Combined refining volumes for BP, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Shell and TotalEnergies fell from 16.4 million barrels per day in 2005, representing around 22 percent of the global total, to 10.4 million bpd last year, or roughly 13 percent of worldwide crude processing, according to Reuters Open Interest calculations.

Shell has led the retreat, reducing its interests in refineries from 40 to just seven over the period.

But the refining environment has improved considerably in the past year, thanks to a spike in military conflict in several oil-rich regions.

First, there’s Iran.

The combination of the months-long effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz – which has limited refiners’ access to crude – and Tehran’s attacks on refineries throughout the Middle East have sent refining margins for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to record highs.

The loss of Middle Eastern crude forced refineries, particularly in Asia, to cut operating rates.

While China has enormous crude stockpiles, it chose to scale back refining activity aggressively and halt fuel exports to offset its sharp reduction in crude imports.

Together, these disruptions removed roughly 5 million barrels per day, or around 6 percent, of pre-war global refining output in the second quarter.

Global refinery runs averaged around 78 million bpd, the lowest level since the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency.

Meanwhile, months of relentless Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have sharply reduced Russia’s refining output, forcing Moscow to ban diesel exports.

That announcement sent diesel prices soaring.

PRICING SUPERPOWER

The combined impact of the two conflicts on refining profitability has been dramatic.

The refined product shortage has left Big Oil with enormous pricing power and encouraged operators to run plants at full capacity.

US refineries, which emerged as the world’s largest fuel suppliers during the conflict, operated at 97 percent of capacity in the week to July 24, well above their long-term average of around 90 percent.

BP’s refining-indicator margin, a gauge of global refining profits, climbed to $30 per barrel in the second quarter from $17 in the first quarter and $12 a year earlier.

The indicator has averaged $42 per barrel so far in the third quarter.

Exxon posted downstream profits of $5.5 billion in the second quarter, its strongest result since 2022, driven by record diesel production, while Chevron’s downstream earnings climbed to $4.9 billion, their highest level this decade.

Shell reported adjusted earnings of $2.5 billion for its products division, the highest this decade, as its refining network operated at a utilisation rate of 102 percent during the quarter.

TotalEnergies Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanne summed it up neatly when he told analysts late last month that the company’s refining segment had performed in “an exceptional way.”

BP reports earnings on Tuesday.

CAN IT LAST?

Most of the immediate pressures supporting these refining margins are likely to ease – the question is how quickly.

A sustainable resolution to the US-Iran conflict involving a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the eventual recovery of Chinese refining activity would help loosen fuel markets meaningfully, but when that might occur is anyone’s guess.

What’s clear is that the industry’s problems cannot be repaired immediately. Fixing damage to dozens of refineries in the Middle East and Russia will take months, and in some cases years.

In the meantime, global spare refining capacity remains exceptionally thin.

There’s also reason to be positive on the demand side of the equation.

The Iran war has revived concerns about energy security.

Many governments are thus expanding strategic storage facilities for both crude oil and refined fuels to protect against future supply shocks.

Governments need to start by simply refilling inventories depleted during the conflict.

Global oil stocks fell by 5.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter and are forecast to decline by a further 2.2 million bpd in the third quarter, according to US Energy Information Administration estimates.

Rebuilding inventories of diesel, jet fuel and gasoline will likely take years, creating persistent demand.

Alan Gelder, senior vice president for refining at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, expects refining margins and utilisation rates to remain strong through the end of the decade, supported by continued growth in oil demand and a limited pipeline of new refining projects.

THE PARTY WON’T LAST

But the boom masks a deeper fragility.

Today’s windfall profits are being generated by war, damaged infrastructure and scarcity, not by a structural improvement in the industry’s underlying fundamentals.

Refiners are benefiting because the world has lost capacity faster than demand has disappeared.

But that might not be the case for long.

Several countries with limited domestic refining capability are now reassessing whether they need more local processing capacity.

Australia, for example, is already considering such plans.

Over time, those investments could create a new wave of capacity and eventually lead to oversupply.

The oil majors understand this reality.

A few years of exceptional margins may slow the decline of the refining sector.

But they are unlikely to reverse it.

Policymakers, economists, development practitioners and industry experts on Monday called for a fundamental overhaul of Bangladesh's skills-development ecosystem.

They also observed that a persistent mismatch between education and labour- market demand is preventing the country from fully capitalising on its demographic dividend.

Speaking at a discussion titled "Linking Skills with Employment: Challenges and Way Forward" at PKSF Bhaban in the capital, they stressed the need for closer collaboration among government, academia and industry to ensure that training programmes produce employable graduates and internationally competitive workers.

The Financial Express in association with Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF) organised the event.

Managing Director (MD) of Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation Md Fazlul Kader said Bangladesh must change its social perception of vocational education, arguing that technical education continues to receive lower social recognition than conventional academic qualifications.

"For better employment opportunities and skills-based education, we must move towards vocational education in line with global practices," he said.

Mr. Fazlul Kader suggested that the government incentives should be redirected towards industries to encourage them to provide training, develop skilled workers and award recognitions, instead of focusing solely on subsidised loans.

He also highlighted the employment potential in Bangladesh's informal economy, particularly in agriculture, livestock and value-added micro-enterprises, stressing the need for stronger forward and backward linkages to unlock the growth potential.

Describing modern agriculture as a highly-skilled profession, he noted that an increasing number of educated young people are entering the sector.

Referring to overseas employment, he observed that Bangladeshi migrant workers remained vulnerable because many of them lack formal skills and certification.

"Providing training and producing skilled manpower is essential to protect migrant workers from job losses and exploitation," he said.

Quazi Moshrur-Ul-Alam, Senior Programme Manager of the PKSF's RAISE project, said Bangladesh has established a training system, but it is yet to build a complete ecosystem connecting skills with employment.

"The problem is not a lack of jobs, but the absence of an effective linkage between skills and employment," he said.

Highlighting the impact of practical skills training, a graduate apprentice Ashfakur Rahman shared how a RAISE-supported driving course enabled him to rebuild his family's livelihood after his father's death. He now works as a service engineer at Hyundai.

Director General of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Dr A K Enamul Haque said Bangladesh faces a demand-side problem, as the economy fails to generate sufficient opportunities for science graduates and knowledge-based professionals.

"We continue to value clerical qualifications over practical knowledge, while industries lack incentives to innovate and absorb skilled graduates," he said.

Professor Sayema Haque Bidisha of the Department of Economics at the University of Dhaka said Bangladesh needs to address the persistent mismatch between the supply of graduates and industry demand.

She said both domestic and international labour market requirements should be carefully assessed so that skills development programmes reflect actual market demand.

"This requires coordinated efforts among academia, industries and policymakers," she added.

ATM Mahbubul Karim, Project Director and Joint Secretary of the Wage Earners' Welfare Board (WEWB), underscored the importance of strengthening the capacity of recruitment agencies to facilitate sustainable overseas employment.

The World Bank Task Team Leader Aneeka Rahman also called for an integrated skills ecosystem in which curricula and training delivery are directly aligned with labour market requirements.

The FE News Editor Anisur Rahman stressed the importance of strengthening foundational education, arguing that basic education and skills development should be linked to reduce school dropout rates and prepare students for vocational training.

Md Ashfaqur Rahman Khan of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) Bangladesh said the country lacks reliable labour market data to determine future demand for different occupations, calling for institutional reforms instead of fragmented project-based interventions.

Executive Director of UCEP Bangladesh Dr Md Abdul Karim said Bangladesh's education system remains heavily skewed towards general education, unlike developed countries where technical graduates dominate.

"This imbalance leaves many graduates unemployed while industries struggle to recruit skilled workers," he noted.

Executive Director of ESDO Dr Md Shahid Uz Zaman stressed the need for addressing the psychosocial challenges faced by marginalised youth alongside technical training, proposing the creation of "job banks" to better support employment transitions.

Dr Md Towfiqul Islam suggested introduction of foreign languages such as Japanese and Arabic from the primary level to improve overseas employment prospects, saying language proficiency could significantly enhance earning potential.

Joint Secretary of the Ministry of Finance Kamrul Hoque Maruf stressed the need for anticipating future labour market requirements in emerging fields such as machine learning and industrial automation, supported by tracer studies to evaluate employment outcomes.

Deputy Managing Director of PKSF Md Mashiar Rahman said successful training initiatives should be expanded through enterprise financing models, enabling experienced entrepreneurs to train additional workers and generate large-scale employment.

Towhidur Rahman of the International Labour Organization (ILO) warned that nearly 90 per cent of Bangladeshi migrant workers still lack internationally recognised skill certificates, weakening their bargaining power and exposing them to exploitation abroad.

Additional Secretary Mohammed Walid Hossain concluded the discussion by highlighting the need to embrace emerging technologies, including 3D printing and industrial automation, through a practical, industry-oriented approach to skills development.

Moderated by Shiabur Rahman Shihab, FE online head, the discussion was attended by representatives from government agencies, development partners, academia, international organisations and the private sector, who agreed that stronger industry participation and demand-driven training are essential to creating sustainable employment and enhancing Bangladesh's global competitiveness.

Bangladesh is now confronting a "triple burden" of malnutrition, with undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and a rapidly growing prevalence of obesity posing a major public health challenge, experts warned yesterday (3 August).

They said malnutrition is reducing economic growth by 8% annually, but every Tk1 invested in nutrition could generate more than Tk23 in long-term economic returns, underscoring the need for stronger public-private partnerships to improve nutrition services.

The observations came at a roundtable titled "Integration of Nutrition Action in Primary Healthcare System through Public-Private Platforms in Bangladesh," organised by Max Foundation Bangladesh. The Business Standard was the media partner of the event.

Poor diets, maternal malnutrition fuel crisis

Presenting the keynote paper, Saiqa Siraj, public health nutrition specialist, said nearly 70% of Bangladeshis still depend on cereal-based diets despite years of awareness campaigns, while nutrition services remain inadequate in marginalised areas, including chars, haor regions and urban slums.

She said the nutritional needs of child brides, garment workers, persons with disabilities and older people continue to receive insufficient attention, calling for stronger public-private partnerships and coordinated initiatives involving local entrepreneurs.

Dr Tahmeed Ahmed, executive director of icddr,b, said one in four Bangladeshi children under five remains stunted. New research shows stunting begins in the womb rather than after six months of age, with maternal malnutrition – particularly during adolescence – being a major contributor.

Unsafe water, poor sanitation and inadequate hygiene, which lead to environmental enteric damage, are also driving childhood stunting, he said, adding that increasing public health spending from the current 1% of GDP to 3-5% could reduce the stunting rate from 24% to 12%.

He also said around 4 lakh children are suffering from severe acute malnutrition, although only 6-7% require hospitalisation, with the remainder able to recover through community-based care.

Govt plans preventive healthcare overhaul

Professor Dr Pravath Chandra Biswas, director general of the DGHS, said Bangladesh has yet to achieve its nutrition goals despite launching the National Nutrition Programme in 1974.

He said 60-70% of Bangladeshis rely on private providers for primary healthcare, while child wasting stands at 13%. Anaemia affects 53% of pregnant women and 55.5% of women of reproductive age, and malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies are contributing to the growing burden of non-communicable diseases, which now account for about 70% of all diseases in the country.

To strengthen preventive healthcare, the government plans to introduce artificial intelligence-based support into the healthcare system, Dr Pravath said.

Dr Mohammad Eunus Ali, director of the Institute of Public Health, said the institute continues to implement the Vitamin A Plus Campaign and enforce the Breast-milk Substitutes Act.

He also proposed integrating data on children suffering from severe acute malnutrition into the government's central database through NGOs and Upazila Health Complexes to eliminate duplicate records and improve service delivery.

Dr SM Ziauddin Hyder, special assistant to the prime minister on health affairs, said Bangladesh has never developed a sustained national commitment to nutrition despite multiple initiatives since the National Nutrition Council was established in 1974.

He said policy decisions have often been driven by development partners rather than strong government ownership, limiting long-term progress.

Dr Ziauddin said the government is shifting from a treatment-oriented healthcare model to preventive care by establishing Primary Healthcare Units in every union and urban ward.

The government will recruit an additional 100,000 health workers, expanding the existing workforce of 43,000. Every citizen will receive a digital health card to reduce unnecessary hospital visits and out-of-pocket healthcare costs.

He added that the government would propose establishing a National Nutrition Commission.

Dr ATM Tariqul Islam, country director of Max Foundation Bangladesh, said the organisation is working to bring together the government, private sector and civil society to scale up successful pilot initiatives.

Dr Rudaba Khondker, Country Director of GAIN Bangladesh, said Bangladesh's health and food systems continue to operate in parallel despite the country's heavy climate burden, with weak linkages between the two.

She said transforming the food system would be impossible without the private sector, which produces most of the country's food. Yet there is no reliable data on private sector investment, making effective public-private partnerships difficult to design.

Market-based solutions, she added, must be aligned with government systems and bring the private sector within a clear regulatory framework.

Iqbal Kabir, a public health nutrition specialist, said integrating nutrition into primary healthcare is not a new concept. However, achieving Universal Health Coverage now requires strengthening that integration through effective public-private partnerships.

Prof Kaosar Afsana, head of the Humanitarian Hub at the BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, said nutrition, health, agriculture, the environment and food systems are closely interconnected, requiring a coordinated, multi-sectoral approach.

Improving nutrition cannot be left to the health sector alone, she said, stressing the need for coordinated action by ministries responsible for agriculture, food and related sectors. Ensuring healthy diets also depends on strengthening the entire food system.

Prof Afsana said policy alone is not enough. Effective action requires active participation from the private sector, development partners and community organisations. She also stressed the need to strengthen the science-policy interface so researchers can engage policymakers from the outset, helping translate evidence into effective policies and action.

Dr Rawshan Zahan Akhter Alo, deputy director of the Institute of Public Health Nutrition (IPHN); Dr Santhia Ireen, deputy director at the BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health; Prof Kaosar Afsana, head of the Humanitarian Hub at the BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health; Mohammad Solaiman Rasel, CTO and CBO of Grameen Health Tech Ltd (Shukhee); Dr Rudaba Khondker, country director of GAIN; and ASM Shahidul Alam attended from SMC, also spoke.

Bangladesh's listed banks came under mounting pressure in their core banking operations in the first half of 2026, as sluggish private sector credit growth and rising deposit costs squeezed earnings from traditional lending.

Although many lenders posted higher overall profits, the gains were largely driven by investment income from government securities rather than their core business of mobilising deposits and extending loans.

An analysis of the half-year financial statements of 27 listed banks shows a widening gap between core banking performance and bottom-line profitability. Eight banks posted negative net interest income (NII), 13 reported lower NII, and only six increased their core interest earnings during the January-June period.

AB Bank, SBAC Bank, Standard Bank and ICB Islamic Bank have yet to publish their half-year financial statements.

Net interest income, the key measure of a bank's core business, is the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. A decline in NII indicates lending income is failing to keep pace with funding costs.

National Bank posted the largest negative NII at Tk2,034 crore, followed by IFIC Bank (Tk1,542 crore) and Rupali Bank (Tk1,345 crore). Islami Bank reported a negative NII of Tk330 crore, while Premier Bank, Bank Asia, Southeast Bank and NRB Bank also slipped into negative territory.

Another 13 banks recorded sharp declines in NII. NRBC Bank saw the steepest fall, with NII plunging 95% year-on-year, followed by Trust Bank (90%), Prime Bank (82%), Mutual Trust Bank (72%) and Mercantile Bank (69%). United Commercial Bank, Eastern Bank, Dhaka Bank, Midland Bank, NCC Bank, One Bank, Dutch-Bangla Bank and Pubali Bank also reported lower NII.

Only six banks posted growth in core interest income. BRAC Bank led with a 29% rise in NII to Tk1,057 crore, followed by City Bank, Al-Arafah Islami Bank, Jamuna Bank, Shahjalal Islami Bank and Uttara Bank.

Treasury income cushions profits as banks turn cautious

Despite weaker lending income, many banks reported strong profit growth by capitalising on high-yield government securities.

Bangladesh Bank's tight monetary policy has pushed Treasury bill and bond yields into double digits over the past year, encouraging banks to park surplus liquidity in risk-free government instruments instead of expanding private sector lending.

BRAC Bank earned Tk2,656 crore from treasury investments in the first half, followed by Pubali Bank (Tk2,093 crore) and City Bank (Tk1,910 crore). Dutch-Bangla Bank, Rupali Bank, Bank Asia, Eastern Bank, Prime Bank, United Commercial Bank and Mutual Trust Bank also reported substantial income from government securities.

For several banks, treasury income exceeded earnings from traditional lending, highlighting their growing dependence on investment income to sustain profitability.

Industry insiders attribute the pressure on core banking to weak private sector credit demand amid slower economic activity, higher deposit costs, and banks' increasing caution in extending fresh loans because of rising credit risks and growing non-performing loans.

A chief financial officer (CFO) of a private commercial bank, requesting anonymity, said describing banks' core business as weakening could be misleading.

"The banking sector cannot lend out all deposits because of regulatory limits on the Advance Deposit Ratio (ADR). Any idle funds have to be invested somewhere, and government securities provide a safe avenue while still generating returns for depositors," he told The Business Standard.

Under Bangladesh Bank regulations, conventional banks can maintain an Advance Deposit Ratio of up to 87%, while Islamic banks operate under an Investment Deposit Ratio ceiling of 92%.

The CFO also said international accounting standards generally present lending and investment income together as interest income.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) ended lower today (3 August), with the benchmark index slipping below the psychological 5,900-point mark as persistent gas supply shortages, escalating tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over the draft margin loan rules dampened investor sentiment.

After moving in a narrow range for most of the session, the market came under renewed selling pressure in the second half of trading. Market analysts said that while Bangladesh Bank's accommodative monetary policy and the government's efforts to ease the energy crisis have offered some support, lingering uncertainties continue to keep investors cautious.

The benchmark DSEX index shed 10.62 points, or 0.18%, to close at 5,886. The blue-chip DS30 index fell 9.06 points to 2,204, while the DSES Shariah Index lost 6.18 points to finish at 1,186.

Turnover on the premier bourse also declined, dropping 3.74% from the previous session to Tk1,211 crore.

Among the 393 issues traded, 165 advanced, 169 declined and 59 remained unchanged. Although gainers and losers were nearly evenly matched, stronger selling pressure toward the close dragged the market into negative territory.

Market participants said uncertainty over the proposed margin loan rules has added to investors' concerns. With the deadline for public feedback approaching, investors remain uncertain whether the regulator will revise several contentious provisions before finalising the rules. As a result, many investors, particularly those relying on margin financing, are refraining from taking fresh positions.

In its daily market commentary, EBL Securities said the capital bourse slipped back into negative territory after witnessing day-long volatility, as selling pressure intensified near the psychological 5,900-point level. Despite supportive monetary easing and government initiatives to alleviate the energy crisis, persistent gas shortages and lingering Middle East tensions kept investors cautious, resulting in range-bound trading.

According to the brokerage, the benchmark index opened higher before selling pressure intensified across the board, pushing the market into negative territory by mid-session. A modest recovery attempt later in the day proved short-lived as profit-taking re-emerged, reflecting investors' continued caution amid an uncertain near-term market outlook.

On the sectoral front, textiles accounted for the largest share of turnover at 26.2%, followed by pharmaceuticals and chemicals at 11.8% and engineering at 10.6%.

Sector performance was mixed with mutual funds posting the strongest gain, rising 2.1%, followed by jute at 1.4% and information technology at 0.9%. On the downside, food and allied stocks fell 0.8%, general insurance declined 0.6%, and the miscellaneous sector lost 0.5%.

Fareast Finance topped the gainers' list with a 10% rise. Peoples Leasing and Financial Services and International Leasing and Financial Services followed, each advancing 9.52%.

Among the decliners, Meghna Pet Industries fell 5.15%, while SBAC Bank and Bangladesh Export Import Company (Beximco) lost 4.0% and 3.88%, respectively.

The most actively traded stocks of the day were Sharp Industries, Far East Knitting, and Monno Fabrics.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) also closed lower, with the CSCX index shedding 14.2 points and the CASPI falling 30.2 points.

Shares of IT sector-listed Aamra Technologies have surged 65% over the past two months, but the company says there is no undisclosed price-sensitive information (PSI) behind the sharp rise.

Following the unusual increase in the share price and trading volume, the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) separately sought explanations from the company.

In replies to the DSE's query dated 12 July and the CSE's query dated 2 August, Aamra Technologies said it is not aware of any undisclosed price-sensitive information that could have influenced the recent movement in its share price or trading volume.

The company said there had been no significant changes in its business operations, financial position or future plans that could explain the rally.

The stock closed at Tk21.40 on the DSE today (3 August).

According to DSE data, the company's share price rose from Tk13 on 1 June to Tk21.50 on 2 August, a gain of 65.38% in two months.

Trading activity also increased sharply during the period, with turnover in several sessions well above the stock's usual average. Market observers say simultaneous spikes in price and trading volume in relatively small-cap stocks can sometimes indicate speculative trading, although determining the cause falls within the purview of the stock exchanges and the market regulator.

Aamra Technologies was listed on the stock market in 2012 and is currently in the 'Z' category. The company has a paid-up capital of Tk65.70 crore.

As of 30 June 2026, sponsor-directors held 30.01% of the company's shares, institutional investors owned 33.68%, while general investors held the remaining 36.31%.

Shares of loss-making Sharp Industries have surged 132.35% in just six weeks despite the company reporting a net loss of Tk65 crore in the first nine months of FY2025-26.

Trading in the stock has also increased sharply, although the company says there is no undisclosed price-sensitive information (PSI) behind the rally.

According to data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), Sharp Industries' share price rose from Tk17 on 15 June to Tk39.50 on 3 August, gaining Tk22.50 during the period.

The unusual rise in both the share price and trading volume prompted the DSE to seek an explanation from the company on 13 July.

In its response, Sharp Industries said there had been no material developments, including changes in business operations, financial condition, new investments, asset sales, mergers, restructuring or any other corporate event, that could explain the recent surge in its share price.

The company also said it had no undisclosed price-sensitive information related to the movement.

Trading activity has risen significantly in recent weeks, with the stock featuring among the DSE's top-traded issues in several recent sessions.

Sharp Industries emerged from the merger of RN Spinning Mills Limited and Samin Food and Beverage Industries and Textile Mills Limited. RN Spinning had suspended operations following a fire in 2019 and had been incurring continuous losses since FY2018-19. As part of its revival plan, the company merged with Samin Food to resume operations.

The High Court approved the merger in December 2022, while the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission granted its consent in October 2023.

Following the completion of the merger, the company began trading on the DSE under the name Sharp Industries PLC on 29 October 2024.

Despite the restructuring, the company's financial performance remains weak. During the first nine months of FY2025-26, Sharp Industries posted a Tk65 crore net loss on Tk257 crore in revenue.

In the January-March quarter alone, it incurred a Tk21 crore loss while generating Tk56 crore in revenue. As of March 2026, the company's accumulated retained losses stood at approximately Tk78 crore.

Market participants say the sharp rally in the shares of a company that continues to report substantial losses and has shown no visible improvement in its fundamentals is unusual.

They note that Bangladesh's textile sector is still facing significant challenges due to persistent gas shortages and rising production costs, making such a dramatic appreciation difficult to justify based on fundamentals alone.

Under DSE regulations, the exchange seeks explanations whenever a listed company's share price or trading volume shows unusual movements, with the objective of determining whether any undisclosed price-sensitive information exists.

Analysts advise investors to base investment decisions on a company's financial performance and fundamentals rather than short-term price momentum.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has allowed businesses to use both their old and newly reassigned Business Identification Numbers (BINs) for customs-related activities until November 30, 2026, aiming to ensure uninterrupted import and export operations following the restructuring of VAT commissionerates.

As part of an administrative reform to expand the tax net, improve revenue collection, and enhance taxpayer services, the NBR has reorganised the jurisdictions of the existing VAT commissionerates and created new ones.

Under the restructuring, the BINs of many businesses have been transferred to new VAT jurisdictions.

While the last four digits of the BIN -- indicating the relevant VAT commissionerate and division -- have changed, all other business information linked to the BIN remains unchanged.

To prevent disruptions to international trade, both the old and new BINs will remain temporarily active in the Customs ASYCUDA World system.

This will allow businesses to complete the ongoing customs procedures, including letters of credit (L/Cs), bills of entry, customs declarations, and other import-export formalities initiated under the previous BIN.

The NBR has requested all affected businesses to complete all pending transactions under the old BIN and switch to the new BIN by November 30, 2026.

After that date, the old BINs will be automatically deactivated in the ASYCUDA World system, and all customs-related import and export activities must be carried out using the new BIN only.

The revenue authority said the transitional arrangement was intended to ensure uninterrupted economic activities while supporting a more dynamic, efficient, and modern tax administration.

Most leading commercial banks have cut deposit interest rates by 50 to 100 basis points from the beginning of August, pushing returns further below inflation as excess liquidity and weak private-sector credit demand reduce the need to attract fresh deposits.

The rate adjustments follow broader policy shifts, including Bangladesh Bank's recent decision to cut the policy rate from 10% to 9.50% after nearly two years and enforce interest rate spread caps. Consequently, banks lowered lending rates as well.

The move comes at a severe cost to savers. With overall inflation standing at 9.16% in June, the fresh round of rate cuts will drag deposit yields down to 8.50-9%, down from the 9-10.15% range offered through July. As a result, depositors face negative real returns, as interest rates fail to keep pace with rising prices.

According to Bangladesh Bank's latest banking sector update, real deposit interest rates have remained persistently negative. Official data show deposit growth reached 11.41% in May, a performance bankers attribute to previously attractive deposit rates. However, industry leaders warn that reducing deposit rates while inflation remains elevated could eventually discourage savers.

"High deposit rates create massive future liabilities, which is why banks are moving to lower their cost of funds," said a senior executive at a private commercial bank. He added that yields on Treasury bills and government bonds had softened, squeezing banks' margins and reducing the incentive to offer 10% returns on one-year deposits.

Toufic Ahmad Choudhury, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management, questioned the central bank's policy decision.

"The question is why the central bank has decreased the policy rate? It is not a prudent decision anymore. Depositors are not getting real interest rates due to high inflation," he told The Business Standard.

Despite the continued erosion of purchasing power, bankers said depositors are still prioritising the safety of their funds over higher returns, helping deposits remain stable for the time being.

Excess liquidity weakens banks' appetite for deposits

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director of Mutual Trust Bank, said lower yields on Treasury bills and bonds, combined with abundant liquidity and healthy deposit growth, had reduced banks' need to offer high deposit rates.

"Currently the interest rates on Treasury bills and bonds are lower than before. Banks have excess liquidity, and deposit growth is good. I think deposit interest rates will fall below the inflation rate," he said.

Mahbubur said the Bangladesh Bank had instructed banks to keep the interest rate spread within 4%, prompting lenders to reduce both deposit and lending rates, although deposit rates would be adjusted first.

Mohammad Ali, managing director of Pubali Bank, said higher deposit rates had previously helped banks attract savings.

"Depositors received attractive deposit rates earlier, and as a result deposit growth reached a satisfactory level. But leading commercial banks now have excess liquidity and weak credit demand. So banks have moved away from offering higher rates to depositors and have already reduced deposit rates," he said.

Another managing director of a commercial bank, speaking on condition of anonymity, said depositors are increasingly choosing financially credible banks rather than chasing higher interest rates. He added that if banks could reduce their funding costs, they would increase investment in Treasury bills and government bonds. However, he noted that weaker banks still needed to offer relatively high deposit rates to attract deposits.

Bangladesh Bank data show surplus liquidity rose to Tk3,27,877 crore in May from Tk2,35,500 crore in the same month of 2025.

Lending income weakens as investment demand slows

Banks' earnings from both lending and government securities have come under pressure as interest rates on Treasury instruments have eased and private-sector borrowing has weakened.

According to bankers, yields on Treasury bills are now below 9%, while Treasury bonds offer slightly above 10%, compared with around 12% previously. Lower returns from government securities have reduced their attractiveness compared with the period of higher yields.

Meanwhile, sluggish private investment has continued to suppress demand for bank credit. Bangladesh Bank data show private-sector credit growth remained below 5% in May 2026, reducing banks' income from lending over an extended period.

Banks' financial statements illustrate a significant shift in their income structure over the past four years. In 2021, the country's 52 major banks generated Tk40,793 crore in total income, with lending contributing 47%, investments 34% and commissions 19%.

By 2025, investment income had become banks' largest source of revenue, accounting for 73% of total income, while net interest income had fallen to 6.8%. Commission income remained broadly unchanged at around 20%.

Banks have increased their investment in Treasury bills and government bonds since late 2023, when yields on those instruments rose sharply, although returns have moderated more recently.

Chevron Bangladesh's fresh investment proposal to ramp up onshore gas exploration gets under processing, sources say, amid a thrust on energy search to meet shortages of fuels in the country.

The energy ministry has asked state-run Petrobangla to review the investment proposal from the US multinational.

Chevron Bangladesh, a part of the global energy company Chevron, submitted the investment proposal for further hydrocarbon exploration in block-11 and block-12 in the country's gas-rich northeastern region.

The American company is currently installing a compression station near Jalalbad gas field at a cost of around US$65 million to increase gas production from nearby producing gas fields.

The project is expected to be completed within 30 months, making additional gas available by 2028.

Chevron's investment proposal for these unexplored onshore areas in the Surma basin is long pending for approval by Bangladesh government.

The company has recently renewed interest in making further investment there to ramp up the country's overall natural-gas output against the backdrop of growing energy crisis since the beginning of the Middle East crisis late February, dwindling local gas reserves and mounting demand in industries, power plants and fertiliser factories.

Sources could not confirm how much investment Chevron will pour into these onshore blocks, but said that it would be no less than US$500 million.

"Chevron has planned to drill a good number of wells in new exploration areas and would be able to supply natural gas within the shortest possible time," said one source.

The US company is learnt to have sought to link the gas price to the price of Brent Crude on the international market and demanded that the price should be 10 per cent of the Brent Crude price, which will be variable.

Under the current international market rate, the price would be US$9.0 per cubic meter, considering the Brent Crude price at US$90 per barrel, which is around three times higher than the price at which it sells gas to Petrobangla from the currently operational gas fields.

Chevron placed the proposal after carrying out 'exploration study' in 11 onshore blocks, fully or partially, to delineate new hydrocarbon prospects over the past couple of years.

Among the blocks 1, 2A, 2B, 3A, 3B, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13 and 14, which were studied by Chevron, few are still vacant, or unexplored, some owned by state-run Bangladesh Gas Fields Company Ltd (BGFCL) and some owned by Sylhet Gas Fields Ltd (SGFL) and the remaining are Chevron's.

During the study, the company attained access to relevant data and carried out study in reservoir 'stratography', and unconventional reservoir 'farcies.'

Officials have said the US firm attained a 60-square-kilometer 'flank' area from Petrobangla outside its existing contract zone to the north of the Bibiyana gas field in the gas-rich region during the previous Awami League government.

It also invested around US$150 million in drilling a couple of new wells BY-27 and BY-28.

The onshore block-11 is one of the several blocks that were kept ring-fenced for development by BAPEX.

Chevron Bangladesh is currently the largest producer of natural gas in Bangladesh with its output of around 890 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) from three of its onshore fields -- Bibiyana, Jalalabad and Moulavi Bazar, which are located in blocks 12, 13 and 14 respectively, according to official data of Petrobangla as on August 1, 2026.LPG supply solutions

The country's overall natural-gas output hover around 2,151mmcfd, including 500mmcfd regasified liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the remaining 1,651mmcfd from local gas fields that include the Chevron-operated ones.

Previously, the Bangladesh Oil, Gas and Mineral Corporation or Petrobangla had turned down a similar proposal from Chevron to develop onshore Rashidpur gas field, owned by the corporation's subsidiary Sylhet Gas Fields Ltd (SGFL).

Chevron then also had sought 10 per cent of the Brent Crude price for Rashidpur gas after development of the field and initiating production.

Instead of allowing it to develop Rashidpur gas field, Petrobangla has engaged its subsidiary Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Ltd (BAPEX) to drill extensively over there.

More than a decade back in 2015, Chevron also had proposed to invest around US$650 million in installing a new compression station at Bibiyana gas field and drilling three more wells in Jalalabad gas field, tagging condition of annual tariff hike by 3.0 per cent for Bibiyana gas.

The US firm later dropped the investment plan as Petrobangla rejected its plea for annual hike in gas tariffs. Chevron instead announced sellout of its Bangladesh stakes to Chinese joint-venture Himalaya Energy in April 2017.

The US firm reversed its decision in October 2017 when Petrobangla moved to acquire its assets. It decided not to sell off its Bangladesh stakes but to stay in Bangladesh.