Six months into the Iran war , the world’s most powerful oil alliance, OPEC+, finds itself in an unfamiliar position: unable to influence a market it once helped shape. The war, which has shut a major export route for Middle Eastern oil and damaged energy infrastructure in several OPEC countries, has eroded the group’s market share and, with it, its ability to affect prices. Its statements and policy decisions barely move oil markets anymore.

Instead, cuts in Chinese crude imports have emerged as one of the dominant themes of 2026, helping to balance oil markets amid what analysts describe as the worst-ever supply disruption. OPEC+ — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia — accounted for about 40 percent of global oil output in July, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency data.

That’s down from more than 48 percent before the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February, although about four to five percentage points of the decline were due to the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC in May. OPEC+’s core group of seven producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, accounted for only a quarter of world oil output in July. The war has reduced OPEC+’s ability to quickly raise or cut supply by effectively shutting the Strait of Hormuz, a key export route for top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia and other members such as Iraq and Kuwait.

OPEC was formed in 1960, and the expanded OPEC+ framework was created in 2016 when Russia and other producers joined efforts to help the group counter its shrinking share of world oil production. OPEC’s share of global crude output peaked at about 50 percent during the oil crises of the 1970s before falling to 30 percent by the mid-1980s as output from the North Sea, Alaska and Siberia increased. OPEC did not reply to a Reuters request for comment. OPEC+ says its decisions are aimed at supporting market stability and it does not target a specific oil price.

Wartime supply disruptions are not new for OPEC, from Kuwait during the 1990-91 Gulf War to Iraq following the 2003 US-led invasion. What is unusual now is the scale of the outage, which is constraining multiple producers simultaneously, reducing the group’s ability to offset losses elsewhere.

Since March, the core OPEC+ group has announced six oil output increases. Yet, because of the Hormuz blockade, most have remained largely on paper, with the decisions having little effect on oil prices, apart from in July during a brief US-Iran ceasefire that raised hopes Hormuz would reopen.

Apart from in July, OPEC+ decisions do not impact oil prices

The contrast with 2019 is striking. Then, OPEC+ and US President Donald Trump, during his first term, regularly clashed over oil prices, and OPEC+ decisions were closely watched by traders for their potential market impact. At that time, the key question was how much oil OPEC+ chose to pump. Now, the focus is how much oil can physically be produced and exported amid a Middle East war.

One of the biggest price drivers this year has been a steep decline in Chinese oil imports. Since the war began, China has bought roughly 400 million fewer barrels of oil than during the same period last year. The decline reflects a ban on fuel exports, lower refining output and the growing use of electric transport. The trend further highlights China’s growing role in balancing oil markets, a role once associated almost exclusively with OPEC+ as the world’s swing producer. China’s weaker demand for oil has helped place a ceiling on prices this year. By contrast, its buying spree last year, which may have accounted for as much as half of global oil demand growth, helped underpin the market. “They’ve become the swing demand centre,” said June Goh, an analyst at Sparta Commodities.

US retailers, manufacturers and small businesses are paying hefty fuel surcharges to ship their goods, not only as the US-Israeli war on Iran boosts fuel costs but also as some shippers profit from the fees.

The charges have become a growing source of tension across supply chains, with customers arguing that some companies are using them to boost profits rather than simply recover higher fuel costs. Ultimately, those extra costs can be passed on to inflation-weary consumers.

The surcharges have generated tens of millions of dollars in profit for railroad operator Union Pacific and provided a modest earnings boost for UPS, the companies said.

In the clearest publicly available example, Union Pacific collected $91.1 million more in fuel surcharge revenue than it paid for fuel during the second quarter, boosting profits by $83.2 million, or 14 cents per share.

Union Pacific's result far outpaced rivals, spurring concerns that fuel recovery charges are generating profit.

"Ultimately, fuel surcharges are a component of the overall cost we negotiate with customers and ⁠something they take into consideration when choosing Union Pacific and the service we provide," the company said in a statement.

US railroads are the only transportation providers required to report fuel costs and surcharge revenue to federal regulators, offering a rare window into the impact of the charges since the Iran war began on 28 February.

Fuel surcharges are designed to offset higher energy costs, but customers have long argued they can become disconnected from the actual cost of fuel and boost profits.

UPS and FedEx, have steadily increased the size of their fuel surcharges in recent years.

"The original part of the cost consideration almost seems to be lost in translation," said Mingshu Bates, chief analytics officer at invoice auditing firm AFS Logistics, referring to the growing surcharge rates.

When the average diesel price was $3.35 a gallon in August 2021, UPS added a fuel charge of about 9% to the base shipping rate for the everyday packages shipped to homes and businesses. That surcharge is 24.25% today for UPS and 23.75% for FedEx, according to an analysis by AFS Logistics.

UPS and FedEx, often described as a duopoly because of their dominance of the market, offer customers little room to push back because their fuel surcharges are broadly similar.

UPS Chief Financial Officer Brian Dykes said fuel surcharge collections had a "modest" net impact on consolidated ⁠operating profit in the latest quarter. Brie Carere, chief customer officer at FedEx, said they were "not a material driver of our adjusted operating income."

Neither company explained why the surcharge percentages have risen so sharply.

For contrast, the heavily regulated United States Postal Service imposed its first surcharge on April 26: 8% on most packages.

MAERSK'S 'COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE'

The issue extends beyond US railroads and parcel delivery firms. War-related disruption and higher fuel costs have rippled through global shipping networks, allowing some carriers to impose emergency surcharges and raise rates, fueling complaints that crisis-driven fees have become a profit source.

Fuel surcharges have also supported profits at container ship companies such as A.P. Moller-Maersk.

The Danish carrier reported second-quarter profit excluding items of $3 billion, almost $1 billion more ⁠than analysts expected and up from $2.3 billion the year earlier.

Maersk imposed emergency surcharges and made other adjustments to cover higher fuel costs for the roughly 70% of cargo it moves under longer-term contracts. A rate surge on the remaining spot market shipments drove profit in the quarter, executives said. The company did not directly address the impact of fuel surcharges on profits.

Chief Executive Vincent Clerc in an earnings call this month said digital investments helped the company raise rates more quickly ⁠than rivals, an ability he called a "competitive advantage." Maersk declined to elaborate further.

An analysis by supply chain data provider VesselBot showed that when marine fuel costs jumped about 30% this year, container shipping fuel surcharges surged by as much as 75%, decoupling dramatically after closely tracking fuel prices in 2025.

"After March, these charges exploded," said VesselBot CEO Constantine Komodromos.

Analysts said freight rates and surcharges in container shipping currently are driven as much by supply ⁠and demand as by underlying costs, giving carriers scope to recover more than just higher fuel bills when market conditions are favorable.

Ship operators' bargaining power is at its strongest since the COVID-era shipping boom, according to Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand.

Industry earnings reports have reinforced container cargo customers' long-standing concerns that transport providers can use periods of disruption to push through additional charges. James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers Forum, said Maersk's latest profit figures would do little to ease those fears.

"The Maersk results further enforce the 'crisis-means-cash' syndrome," Hookham said.

Britain needs a clear economic strategy focused on supporting growth ‌rather than holding it back, the boss of supermarket group Asda said on Friday.

Asda’s executive chairman Allan Leighton, who in a five decade career has also chaired Britain’s Co-operative ​Group and the Royal Mail, said the Labour government that came ​to power in 2024 had inhibited growth by piling costs on to business, such as higher employer taxes and packaging levies.

He wants ​that to change under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham and his new finance minister ​John Healey, who will present his first budget on October 28.

“We haven’t had an economic plan for growth, we had an economic plan that inhibited growth, so just changing that ​would make a big difference,” Leighton told reporters after Asda updated on third ​quarter trading.

“If on top of that they could introduce some things that actually encourages businesses ‌to go even faster for growth that would be even better.”

Leighton backed Healey: “He is a very sensible guy, I think he’ll probably be quite a good chancellor.”

On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that Mike Ashley, ​the retail billionaire ​behind Frasers Group (FRAS.L), opens new tab, had lambasted Burnham’s proposals to revive British shops as “delusional” and “populist”, and warned that the country’s high streets would be “further ​devastated” unless taxes were cut.

However, Healey, like his predecessor Rachel ​Reeves, ⁠has little, if any, room for tax cuts given the pressure on the public finances.

Leighton also said that England’s ongoing drought meant more food inflation was inevitable.

“In produce ⁠there ​is bound to be some because of the ​production capacity and capability at this moment in time,” he said.

However, he said Asda continued to ​inflate “behind the rest of the market.”

US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said on Friday that high inflation in the world's largest economy was "concerning," as he opened a key central bankers' meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

"On the price-stability side of our mandate, the numbers are more concerning," said Warsh, according to prepared remarks. He added that he would be "hard pressed" to describe current financial conditions as "restrictive," a potential hint that interest rate hikes could be on the horizon.

The US central bank has missed its long-term two-percent target for inflation for more than five years, with the latest measure of the Fed's preferred gauge coming in at 3.7 percent this week.

Warsh, who has been reticent to share his views on the economy since he took office, said that the central bank's "predominant focus right now should be on prices."

"We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do," he said.

The Fed has held rates steady through 2026, but a growing faction of policymakers have called for interest rate hikes to combat inflation fueled by US President Donald Trump's war on Iran and his tariff policies.

At its last meeting in July, the Fed once again held rates, but a quarter of voting members on the rate-setting committee dissented, calling for an immediate hike.

Warsh had positives to note elsewhere in his economic outlook, however.

"I am impressed by the overall performance of the economy, which appears to have strengthened," he said, noting metrics in business capital expenditures, corporate earnings and consumer spending.

The Fed has a dual mandate to keep long-term inflation to its two-percent target while also delivering maximum employment.

Unemployment has remained relatively steady in the United States over the last year, despite seesawing job growth numbers -- mainly due to demographic shifts driven by an aging population and lower net immigration.

"On the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, our country is doing well," said Warsh, noting he believed the current unemployment level of 4.1 percent was "consistent with full employment."

Warsh's speech also spoke of the effects of Artificial Intelligence technology on the US economy, calling the moment "a hinge point in history."

The central bank has been investigating the effect of AI on productivity and jobs through a task force formed by Warsh after he took office earlier this year.

Notably, Fed Chair Warsh's speech made no mention of the central bank's independence, which has been under unprecedented attack by Trump since the latter took office last year.

Earlier this month, Trump renewed his attempts to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and he frequently insulted and criticized Warsh's predecessor Jerome Powell as he demanded lower interest rates despite high inflation.

US consumer sentiment fell in August, survey data from the University of Michigan confirmed Friday, reflecting worries over persistent inflation as war in the Middle East weighs on the world’s biggest economy.

“Consumer sentiment confirmed its early month reading, falling about six percent from last month,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the survey.

This is 11 percent down from a year ago, with the gloominess fueled by “continued worries that inflation will remain elevated for the foreseeable future,” she added.

The university’s consumer sentiment index came in at 51.7 this month, a slight revision from the preliminary reading of 51.0 points.

This was a retreat from July’s reading of 55.2 points.

Global energy prices soared after the United States and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February, plunging the Middle East into conflict.

Tehran had retaliated by attacking Washington’s Gulf allies and snarling a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies. “Sentiment declines in August were seen for all political groups and were particularly acute among Republicans,” the University of Michigan survey found.

This comes just months ahead of key US midterm elections in November. Survey data added that older consumers, alongside those from lower- and middle-income groups, showed a sharper drop in sentiment.

War in the Middle East has already sent US inflation higher, with prices at the gasoline pump climbing and piling pressure on households.

“With ongoing policy uncertainty including the Iran conflict, consumers anticipate further increases in gasoline prices both in the short and long run,” Hsu said.

While year-ahead inflation expectations crept down to 4.0 percent, from 4.2 percent in July, current readings still exceed levels seen before the war began.

Wall Street stocks dipped while the dollar rallied Friday after Federal Reserve chief Kevin Warsh flagged fighting high inflation as a priority in a speech received as more hawkish than expected.

“We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do,” Warsh said in a highly anticipated speech.

Short-term US Treasury bonds, which reflect monetary policy expectations, saw yields spike in anticipation of a higher Fed rate after the speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Futures markets also raised the odds of a rate hike in September, while the dollar jumped against the euro and other major currencies.

At 3.7 percent, inflation in the world’s biggest economy is nearly double the Fed’s target of two percent, and investors worry that high energy prices from the Iran war could persist as winter approaches.

“On the price-stability side of our mandate, the numbers are more concerning,” Warsh said, even as he said he was “impressed” with US economic performance, with employment “doing well”.

Wall Street stocks remained in positive territory for a stretch after the speech, but later moved downward. The S&P 500 finished down 0.3 percent.

“Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium delivered a far clearer -- and hawkish -- message than his last press conference appearance” in July, said Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics.

“Hikes are not guaranteed, but Warsh is now at least suggesting he is on board with them if economic growth remains strong” and inflation remains elevated, he said. Earlier, European stocks closed higher, with Paris climbing one percent as luxury shares led gains.

Asian equity markets largely advanced Friday, though tech firms struggled to extend Thursday’s rally that came on the back of Nvidia’s profit blowout and bumper forecast, which soothed worries over the AI boom.

Tokyo and Hong Kong rose, while Seoul and Shanghai retreated.

Oil prices finished slightly lower as traders weigh assessed the mixed signals over the prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz against US threats against Iran.

US officials have vowed an “economic asphyxiation” to make Iran open the Strait of Hormuz -- through which about a fifth of world oil usually passes -- after six months of war.

Apex Footwear has introduced biodegradable shopping bags, replacing conventional plastic ones, for its customers amid growing concern over the widespread use of plastic in Bangladesh and its impact on the environment.

The bags use a bio-resin derived from corn starch and do not contain synthetic materials such as polyethylene and polystyrene, which are commonly used in traditional plastic packaging, Apex said in a press statement.

Apex, one of the largest footwear manufacturers in the country, said the bags have been tested by the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) and the Bangladesh Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (BCSIR) to assess their quality and environmental characteristics.

According to test findings, the bags can fully biodegrade within seven months of disposal without leaving harmful residues.

Plastic waste, particularly single-use items such as polythene, has been cited by environmentalists and authorities as a major challenge for waste management, drainage systems and ecosystems.

Bangladesh generates around 800,000 tonnes of plastic waste a year, of which only about 40 percent is recycled, according to the Bangladesh Plastic Goods Manufacturers and Exporters Association.

Apex Footwear has a retail presence across 64 districts, with more than 250 retail outlets nationwide, along with more than 260 franchise outlets and a network of over 90 wholesale dealers, according to Raihan Kabir, head of marketing at Apex Footwear.

Together, its outlets require around 700,000 shopping bags a month, he said.

The footwear manufacturer is the latest to join the transition from plastic bags in stores.

Supershops have also moved to cut plastic use in recent years. Following the enforcement of a decades-old polythene ban, chains including Shwapno, Agora, Unimart and Meena Bazar began offering jute and paper bags at checkout counters.

Speaking on the launch of the bags, Raihan said the company had been seeking an alternative to its existing shopping bags for some time.

“We had been looking for something that would allow us to take our sustainability efforts to a wider group of consumers,” he told The Daily Star yesterday.

The search for a supplier took more than a year, as Apex evaluated several locally developed alternatives before selecting a manufacturer capable of meeting its requirements

Raihan informed that a group of students from Chattogram first approached the company with a jute-based bag.

“I found the idea interesting because sustainability is one of our core values. But when we looked at their production capacity, raw material availability and financial strength, we realised they were not yet in a position to supply a company of our size,” he said.

Later, a supplier from Rajshahi proposed a corn-starch bag, but was also found to lack sufficient production capacity to fulfill Apex’s needs.

The footwear company eventually began working with a packaging manufacturer supported by BRAC, after assessing its production capacity, financial stability, raw material availability and technical certifications.

“We checked their documents and were satisfied with their capacity. That was when we decided to start working with them,” he said.

Developing samples and negotiating prices took 6-7 months, as the initial cost of the biodegradable bags was considerably higher than that of conventional alternatives, Raihan said.

“After several rounds of sample development and negotiation, we reached a level where we felt we could move forward,” he said.

The bags were introduced at several outlets on a pilot basis to collect feedback from customers and staff before wider rollout. “The response was very positive. Our store managers, sales officers and customers appreciated the initiative.”

Raihan said the bag initiative is part of broader sustainability efforts at the company.Water-saving measures had also helped reduce electricity consumption from generators by around 30 percent, and Apex has also received a sustainability-related award from Singapore, he said.

The government has begun searching for nearly US$4.5 billion in foreign financing to build the proposed Dhaka-Chattogram Expressway, one of Bangladesh's largest planned transport infrastructure projects.

With the total project cost estimated at Tk 710 billion, the government is exploring concessional loans, co-financing and alternative models, including public-private partnerships, to develop the strategic economic corridor linking Dhaka with Chattogram Port, officials said on Saturday.

The Planning Commission (PC) recently requested the Economic Relations Division (ERD) to explore sources of foreign financing for the project, they said.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has already expressed interest in financing the construction of the Dhaka-Chattogram Expressway, said an official of the Ministry of Road Transport and Bridges (MoRT&B).

The ERD is also attempting to prepare a hybrid co-financing proposal. The framework could potentially bring in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) alongside traditional lenders to break the financing deadlock, he added.

The ministry recently sent a preliminary development project proposal (PDPP) to the Planning Commission, as the planned Dhaka-Chattogram Expressway will require Tk 710 billion in funding.

Of the Tk 710 billion, the government aims to mobilise Tk 550 billion, or about US$4.48 billion, through external borrowing, while providing Tk 160 billion from its own exchequer.

Planning Commission Chief Kabir Ahmed told the FE that the PDPP had already been sent to the ERD to explore foreign financing options.

The expressway project will require massive investment to develop the economic corridor connecting Bangladesh's largest port in Chattogram with the capital, Dhaka, he added.

The existing Dhaka-Chattogram highway currently has four lanes and often experiences congestion at different points. The new expressway is intended to ease congestion and ensure the smoother movement of passengers and freight.

The existing Dhaka-Chattogram National Highway handles more than 80 per cent of Bangladesh's total import-export cargo.

An MoRT&B official said the government was also exploring other options, including Government-to-Government (G2G) arrangements, public-private partnerships (PPP) and the Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) model, to construct the expressway.

"If we get concessional financing from any development partner, such as the ADB, we will try to proceed with that lender to build the expressway," he added.

According to the Roads and Highways Department (RHD), the proposed Dhaka-Chattogram Expressway will span approximately 232.76 kilometres, or roughly 231 to 233 km depending on the final route alignment.

The route will stretch from Daudkandi in the

Dhaka region to GEC Crossing in Chattogram, running mostly parallel to the existing Dhaka-Chattogram National l

Highway (N1).

The proposed design divides the route into three key geographic stretches: a 38-km section crossing Dhaka, Narayanganj and Munshiganj; a 125-km central section from Cumilla to Feni; and a 69-km section ending in Chattogram.

RHD officials said the upgraded highway had been designed as a toll-based facility.

Vehicles will not be able to move freely between the main carriageway and service lanes. Controlled access is expected to reduce congestion and travel times while improving safety and reliability.

The design includes a 13.5-km elevated section from Jatrabari to Madanpur and an 8-km elevated section from Salimpur to Sagarika at the entrance to Chattogram city.

It will also include six flyovers at Signboard, Shimrail and Madanpur in Narayanganj, and at Baraiyarhat, Abutorab Bazar in Mirsarai and Salimpur in Chattogram, with up to 10 lanes, including service lanes, in urban sections.

The corridor currently struggles with a daily traffic volume of more than 30,000 vehicles, leading to severe delays in cargo movement.

A fully isolated, access-controlled expressway is considered essential to reduce soaring logistics costs and help local businesses remain globally competitive.

Even a month ago, machine operator Alauddin could earn more than Tk 15,000 a month, including overtime. Now, the 40-year-old garment worker at Choydana area in Gazipur struggles to earn even his basic pay of Tk 10,000.

And the fall in monthly income due to the ongoing acute gas and power crisis has its own implications.

“I used to eat rice for lunch; now I eat bread and bananas,” said Alauddin, requesting that his employer not be named.

His experience is increasingly common among garment workers in Gazipur, one of the country’s biggest industrial cities.

Asma Akter, who works at a factory at Konabari, told The Daily Star last week that her monthly income had also fallen by half.

“I used to earn Tk 20,000 a month, but now I get Tk 10,000. Working hours have been reduced, and there is no overtime now,” she said.

The squeeze comes at a difficult time for garment workers. For Asma, who lives in Gazipur with her children and family, the loss of income has made it harder to cope with rising living costs.

During the August to December period, factories would normally be running almost round the clock to meet Christmas shipment deadlines, with workers earning extra through overtime.

But a gas crisis that has lasted for more than a month is disrupting production across industrial belts. The crunch followed an accident at a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Cox’s Bazar. Supplies improved slightly in the second week of August before gas pressure in supply lines fell again to almost zero.

Manufacturers say the shortage is disrupting production, raising costs and making it harder to meet delivery deadlines. For workers, it is also cutting into their incomes.

PLENTY OF ORDERS, REDUCED WORKING HOURS

Around noon on Sunday last week, several garment workers were sitting at a roadside tea stall at Ambagh of Konabari. It was an unusual sight in an area where factory floors normally remain busy until late evening.

The workers said they were spending time outside because there was little or no work at their factories.

A short distance away, the dyeing machines at MM Knitwear Ltd were found largely silent and idle.

Nurul Haque, production director of the company, said gas shortages occurred in previous years too. But the latest situation has deteriorated sharply over the past month, with virtually no gas available now.

“This is making it extremely difficult to run the boilers. We are spending around Tk 20 lakh on diesel every day to meet urgent shipment deadlines,” he said.

MM Knitwear is using diesel to keep production going and meet delivery commitments, but the additional cost is becoming difficult to absorb.

“If this continues, it will not be possible to absorb the additional costs for long. If production falls because of the gas crisis and wages cannot be paid on time, worker unrest may erupt. There is also a risk that buyers may move away from Bangladesh,” said Nurul.

There are currently 2,674 active apparel and industrial factories in Gazipur city, according to Industrial Police data. Most manufacturers said they have enough work orders, but are struggling to ship them on time.

M Naimul Hoque, manager of human resources at DBL Group, said the company has adequate work orders ahead of Christmas.

“There is no shortage of foreign orders for other items too. But we are struggling with the delivery due to the gas crisis,” said Hoque.

DBL Group employs around 36,000 workers in its ready-made garment segment.

Another large manufacturer Ananta Group has four factories in Gazipur employing around 18,000 workers.

Mazharul Islam Milon, the company’s HR manager, said the gas crisis at the factories has become more severe.

The company is using diesel to run gas-dependent production sections. Its factories now need around Tk 7 lakh to Tk 8 lakh worth of diesel every day just to operate the washing machines.

“Overall, the situation is bad,” he said.

WORKERS FACE AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE

Mohammad Sakhawat Hossain, deputy managing director of Titas Gas’s Gazipur office, said, “We are trying to manage with whatever gas we are receiving. However, what we are getting is very little compared with the demand.”

Industrial Police Superintendent Amzad Hossain said production at factories had fallen by around 20-25 percent because of the gas shortage.

He said factories in Gazipur have so far avoided a major crisis by extending the use of shifts and distributing workers accordingly.

Ashrafuzzaman, central organising secretary of the National Garment Workers Federation Bangladesh, said owners continue to bear higher operating costs, wages and allowances even when production is suspended.

“If the situation does not improve quickly, many owners may be forced, against their wishes, to take difficult decisions such as declaring layoffs or shutting down factories to reduce losses,” Ashrafuzzaman said.

That could further deepen the pressure on workers already struggling with falling incomes.

Syed Sultan Uddin Ahmmed, executive director of the Bangladesh Institute of Labour Studies (BILS), said the government should introduce a rescue programme for workers and employers affected by production disruptions.

He said the government should identify how many workers have lost their jobs or seen their incomes fall and take measures to support them.

“We are talking about solving the gas problem, but we are not paying enough attention to the problems caused by the gas shortage. The workers who are losing income because of it also need support,” said Sultan, who led the Labor Reform Commission during the interim government.

He said prolonged disruption could have wider social consequences, including growing discontent, poverty, malnutrition and people being forced to change professions.

“When a working person loses a job or income, the impact spreads through the whole society. He has to pay house rent, and his children have to go to school. The person who receives that rent also has a family, children to educate and parents to care for. So, the effect multiplies,” he said.

He called for a universal social security system that would provide temporary support to people who become unable to meet their basic needs, regardless of the reason.

[The Daily Star Senior Reporter Jagaran Chakma has contributed to this report]

Eel fish, which grows naturally in haors, beels and other water bodies across Bangladesh, has emerged as a major live fish export product, helping drive a more than threefold increase in the country's live fish exports over the past decade.

Although domestic demand for eel remains limited, exporters say strong demand in international markets has created opportunities for the fish collected from natural sources to be shipped abroad.

According to the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), Bangladesh earned $8.05 million from live fish exports in FY2016-17. The figure rose to $25.98 million in FY2025-26, marking a 222.7% increase over the decade.

Recent trade data also indicate continued growth. Bangladesh earned $15.06 million from live fish exports during July-December of FY2025-26, up 5.98% from $14.21 million in the same period a year earlier.

Exporters say eel accounts for a significant share of live fish exports. With relatively low domestic demand, most eel collected from natural sources can be exported.

Mahmudur Rahman, proprietor of exporter HIS Investment, told The Business Standard that the company exports almost all the eel it collects because of limited demand in the local market.

China is the largest market, while Japan, Hong Kong, Thailand and Vietnam are also important destinations, he said. The company makes an average of two shipments a week.

Mahmudur said relatively low prices make Bangladeshi eel attractive in international markets.

Before the monsoon, exporters can receive around Tk300 per kilogram, although prices sometimes fall to Tk180. During Christian festivals, stronger demand can push prices up to around Tk600 per kilogram, he added.

However, exporters face challenges in maintaining consistent quality and supply as the industry relies heavily on naturally harvested eel.

"Alongside natural harvesting, the government needs to focus on artificial breeding and production to ensure a steady supply and maintain export continuity," Mahmudur said.

Bangladesh currently exports eel to around 15 countries, according to fisheries sector sources. Major markets include Japan, China, Mongolia, Thailand, Malaysia and South Korea.

Researchers warn that continued dependence on natural harvesting could create supply constraints as exports expand. They say developing eel farming and artificial breeding will be crucial to sustaining the industry.

Researchers also see scope for increasing the value of eel through processing into higher-value products such as canned food.

Dr Paresh Kumar Sharma, head of the eel fish research team at Bangladesh Agricultural University, said eel can be processed into safe, nutritious and long-shelf-life canned food. Scientific rearing after collection from natural sources can also improve its quality, he said.

Eel contains omega-3 fatty acids and has medicinal value, according to Paresh.

His research team has experimentally produced canned eel using temperature control, hygienic processing, quality packaging and preservation technologies.

However, limited access to authorised quality-testing facilities remains a challenge for the sector, he said. BSTI approval could encourage agricultural businesses to invest in commercial canned eel production and create new export opportunities, he added.

Research is also underway on artificial production of eel fry, Dr Sharma said. Successful breeding could reduce reliance on natural harvesting and help ensure a consistent supply of quality eel, creating scope for further expansion of the export-oriented industry.

Seat-trim covers made at a Japanese-owned factory in Bangladesh are shipped to Japan, where they are assembled into complete seats and fitted into vehicles made by manufacturers including Honda and Suzuki.

TS Tech Bangladesh Limited, located at Adamjee Export Processing Zone (EPZ), began operations in Bangladesh in January 2017. The company has invested $4.67 million in the country, employs 375 people and exported products worth $14.75 million in the last fiscal year, mainly supplying seat-trim covers to Japanese vehicle manufacturers.

The company operates from a six-storey Standard Factory Building (SFB) rented from the Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (Bepza).

At the factory, workers cut leather and other materials, sew different components and prepare seat-trim covers according to specific designs. Most of the raw materials are sourced from Japan and China.

The finished covers are then sent to different TS Tech facilities in Japan, where they are assembled into complete seats before being supplied to the respective vehicle manufacturers.

"Among our major customers are Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki and Kawasaki in Japan. At our facility, we mainly produce car seat-trim covers, motorcycle seat-trim covers and various plastic parts like door trims and roof trims," Satoru Onishi, managing director of TS Tech Bangladesh, told TBS.

"Cutting and sewing of raw materials are mainly done at the Bangladesh factory. Complete seats are then prepared in Japan and later installed in vehicles at the manufacturers' end," he said.

The Bangladesh factory currently produces about 206,000 seat-trim cover units a year, and the company plans to maintain roughly the same level of production next year.

Automation and 3D printing

During a visit to the factory recently, the production floor was found busy across a large area. Leather materials were being cut in some sections, while workers used sewing machines to stitch different parts. Others were carefully joining sections of the covers, while workers elsewhere inspected and measured finished products.

Onishi said TS Tech is increasingly focusing on productivity and automation while using modern technologies such as 3D printing for internal production work. The company's production capacity has been expanded gradually since it began operations.

The company began several initiatives in August 2023 to improve its production system. These included installing conveyor belts, automation systems and auto-lay machines.

It also manufactures various jigs and production-support equipment in-house for use in its manufacturing process. Some of these tools are designed and produced using 3D printers.

TS Tech is a global company with 73 plants operated under 13 establishments around the world. The group has about 141,000 employees in total, including around 16,000 in Japan.

"In the Japanese market, we make products for various companies. Outside Japan, TS Tech also does business with various international vehicle manufacturers," Onishi said.

Day-care centre

Alongside its manufacturing operations, TS Tech Bangladesh has introduced workplace facilities aimed at supporting its employees, around 60% being women.

The company opened an in-house day-care centre in 2025. Onishi said 19 children were currently staying there under the care of five babysitters.

Asma, a Japanese-language interpreter at the company who has a child at the day-care centre, said, "It is very helpful for me. I can leave my child at the day-care centre and concentrate on my work without worry."

The company also provides special facilities for pregnant employees, who wear separate green ribbons so they can be easily identified and given the necessary support.

A worker wearing a green ribbon said, "Pregnant employees receive special care."

The international development agency SNV will support Bangladesh in bringing small-scale urban service projects under the public-private partnership (PPP) framework, seeking to address limited private-sector interest caused by lengthy PPP processes.

SNV and the PPP Wing of Invest Bangladesh Authority signed a five-year memorandum of understanding (MoU) in Dhaka yesterday (29 August) to mainstream small-scale PPPs and help local government institutions develop and implement such projects. The signing ceremony was held at the PPP Unit office in Agargaon.

The MoU creates no immediate financial obligations. SNV will mobilise funding for its activities, while any joint financial commitments will be covered by separate agreements.

The partnership will focus on translating the existing small-scale PPP guideline into practical tools and processes for municipalities and city corporations, particularly for water supply, sanitation, faecal sludge management and solid waste management.

The partners will develop standardised templates for requests for quotation and proposals, model contracts and viability gap funding forms. They will also pilot the guideline in a selected city, strengthen the capacity of LGI officials and private-sector partners, and disseminate the finalised tools nationwide.

SNV Bangladesh Country Director Ismène RAC Stalpers said small-scale PPPs could provide a practical way for local governments to work with the private sector to improve essential urban services.

Choudhury Muazzam Ahmed, director general of the PPP Wing, said the partnership would help LGIs identify, structure and implement viable PPP initiatives.

He said it was the PPP Wing's first MoU with an international development organisation.

The initiative is being implemented under SNV's Sustainable Urban Water Cycles programme, with support from the Embassy of the Netherlands in Bangladesh.

The partnership builds on SNV's previous collaboration with the PPP Wing, including feasibility studies, PPP training for LGIs and capacity-building activities involving representatives from all 12 city corporations.

Danish shipping and logistics giant Maersk Line has expressed interest in making direct investments in Bangladesh's shipbuilding industry.

The company also discussed the possibility of investing in the country's ship recycling sector.

The issues were discussed at a meeting held at the residence of Commerce, Industry, and Textiles and Jute Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir in Dhaka today (29 August).

Danish Ambassador to Bangladesh Christian Briks Moller and Rene Pil Pedersen, managing director of AP Moller Singapore Pte Ltd, attended the meeting.

During the meeting, the Danish ambassador said Maersk Line was interested in making direct investments in Bangladesh's shipbuilding industry.

Maersk has long operated ships and conducted shipping and logistics businesses globally.

Commerce Minister Muktadir urged Maersk to expand its investment beyond shipbuilding to Bangladesh's ship recycling industry.

"Maersk Line has a large number of large ships worldwide. Therefore, Bangladesh can emerge as a promising hub not only for the environmentally sound and internationally compliant recycling of the company's old vessels, but also for building new ships," the minister said.

The meeting noted that Bangladesh has long-standing experience and potential in both shipbuilding and ship recycling.

The participants said attracting large-scale international investment to the sectors could create greater opportunities for industrialisation and help tap the potential of the blue economy.

Such investment could also contribute to employment generation, technology and skills transfer, and the development of related industries, the meeting observed.

The amount of cash held outside Bangladesh's banking system continued to rise in June, signalling a growing preference for physical money at a time when economic activity remains subdued and confidence in banks has yet to fully recover.Bangladesh Trade Data
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Currency in circulation outside banks, often dubbed mattress money, rose to Tk 3.36 trillion at the end of June 2026, up 13.5 per cent from Tk 2.96 trillion a year earlier, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

The increase means an additional Tk 400 billion was held outside the formal banking channel over the year, potentially putting further pressure on banks' cash positions as demand for withdrawals remains elevated.

The latest figure also represents a sharp increase from Tk 3.03 trillion recorded in March, with cash outside banks rising by around 10.9 per cent in just three months.

The buildup gathered pace during the first quarter of 2026. Currency outside banks increased from Tk 2.83 trillion in January to Tk 2.86 trillion in February before jumping to Tk 3.03 trillion in March.

People familiar with the development said banks were continuing to face pressure on their vault cash as customers preferred holding physical money rather than keeping funds as deposits.

They said uncertainty surrounding the banking sector, including the unexpected change of leadership at the banking regulator and amendments to a relevant legal instrument, had not been viewed positively by depositors and other market participants.Economic Trend Analysis

Such developments have contributed to uncertainty and encouraged some depositors to hold more cash outside banks, they added.

The rise in cash holdings came as overall money supply expanded at a comparatively slower pace.

Broad money, or M2, increased 11.11 per cent year-on-year to Tk 24.16 trillion in June 2026, up from Tk 21.74 trillion a year earlier.

This means currency outside banks grew about 2.4 percentage points faster than broad money during the period, indicating that the increase in physical cash holdings outpaced the expansion of the overall money supply.

June's M2 growth was also higher than the central bank's estimated 10.80 per cent and well above the 6.95 per cent growth recorded in June 2025.

Meanwhile, reserve money (RM), which reflects the monetary base and includes currency in circulation and banks' reserves, surged by Tk 631.89 billion, registering 15.29 per cent year-on-year growth at the end of June 2026.

The faster growth in reserve money than M2 suggests that liquidity at the base of the monetary system expanded significantly, although a substantial portion of the increase in currency demand was held outside commercial banks.

Currency outside banks stood at Tk 2.96 trillion in June 2025, compared with Tk 2.90 trillion in June 2024, showing that the pace of cash accumulation has accelerated considerably over the past year.Market Analysis Service

The latest increase marks a significant shift from the relatively modest rise recorded between June 2024 and June 2025.

Industry Insiders said restoring confidence in the banking system would be crucial to bringing more cash back into formal financial channels.

They said sustained uncertainty could encourage households and businesses to maintain larger cash buffers, potentially weakening deposit mobilisation and constraining banks' ability to channel funds into productive lending.

M Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, said the rise in currency outside banks reflected heightened uncertainty among households and businesses and could indicate a preference for liquidity and precautionary cash holdings amid weak economic activity.

He said the trend could put additional pressure on banks' deposit mobilisation and reduce the funds available for productive investment if sustained.

"Restoring confidence in the banking sector is critical. Stronger governance, transparency and accountability, along with greater certainty over bank resolution measures, are needed to encourage people to keep their money within the formal financial system," he said.

Reaz added that the rise in currency outside banks should be monitored alongside deposit growth, credit demand and broader economic activity to determine whether it reflects temporary precautionary behaviour or a more persistent shift away from bank deposits.

Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Country Representative Kazuiki Kataoka said political and social stability following Bangladesh's February 2026 general election has encouraged Japanese companies to reassess the country's market potential and investment opportunities.

In an interview with BSS, Kataoka said political and social instability had been one of the major concerns for Japanese investors under the interim government.

The establishment of a new government following the election, however, has provided companies with greater scope to formulate medium- and long-term business plans and consider investment decisions, he added.

According to JETRO's FY2025 Survey on Business Conditions of Japanese Companies Operating Overseas, 94.4 percent of Japanese companies operating in Bangladesh identified "unstable political and social conditions" as an investment risk.

The figure was almost unchanged from 94.8 percent in the previous year, indicating that political and social stability remained a major concern for Japanese businesses, he said.

"Greater stability makes it easier for companies to formulate medium- and long-term business plans and make investment decisions," Kataoka said.

He noted that JETRO has recently observed an increase in visits to Bangladesh by senior executives of Japanese companies from their headquarters in Tokyo and regional offices such as Singapore.

"I believe that one factor behind this trend is that, with political and social conditions becoming more stable, more companies are reassessing Bangladesh's market potential and business opportunities," he said.

However, Kataoka cautioned that political stability alone would not automatically lead to a significant increase in investment.

He stressed the need for continued improvements in the day-to-day business environment, particularly in taxation and customs clearance, licensing and permits, and the transparency of laws and regulations.

Regarding the future of Bangladesh-Japan economic relations, Kataoka said the two countries should move beyond traditional development cooperation and build a stronger trade- and investment-driven partnership.

He also emphasized that economic relations should not be limited to Japanese investment in Bangladesh.

"Economic relations should not be limited to investment from Japan into Bangladesh. We would also welcome investment from Bangladeshi companies into Japan," he said.

"To further develop economic relations between the two countries, it is important not only to promote investment in one direction, but also to expand investment and business transactions by companies from both countries and build a relationship that generates mutual economic benefits," Kataoka added.

He said Japanese companies have shown increasing interest in Bangladesh's domestic consumer market, particularly in Dhaka.

Citing a survey by the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI), Kataoka said Dhaka accounts for approximately 46 percent of Bangladesh's GDP, while its per capita income exceeds US$5,000.

Alongside Bangladesh's population of around 180 million, rising income levels in Dhaka are making the capital increasingly attractive as a consumer market, he said.

Kataoka pointed to the growing number of cafes, restaurants and other businesses in Dhaka offering higher levels of quality and service as an indication of rising demand for quality products and services.

He also noted that Bangladesh's relatively high tariff rates can make imported products expensive.

"As a result, some Japanese companies are considering entering the market not simply through exports, but by combining local production with local procurement," he said.

He identified food and consumer goods as sectors that could offer increasing opportunities for Japanese companies as domestic demand expands.

The combination of Bangladesh's large population, rising consumer demand and potential for local production could provide a stronger basis for Japanese investment in the coming years, he said.

At the same time, Kataoka reiterated that sustained efforts to improve the business environment would be crucial to translating growing investor interest into actual investment commitments.

Bangladesh has sought greater cooperation from the United States on small modular reactors (SMRs), peaceful nuclear technology and other areas of the energy sector as it looks to strengthen energy security and meet rising electricity demand.

The issue was discussed at a meeting between Science and Technology Minister Faqir Mahbub Anam and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Washington, DC, on Thursday.

The Bangladesh minister stressed the importance of adopting modern and safe nuclear technologies and expanding the exchange of technology, expertise and knowledge with the US and other technologically advanced countries, according to a press statement

Anam said the peaceful use of modern and safe nuclear technology could play an important role in meeting the country's growing energy needs, strengthening energy security and supporting sustainable development.

Bangladesh remained committed to the peaceful, safe and responsible use of nuclear technology and wanted to deepen the exchange of knowledge, experience and technology with countries such as the US, he added.

US Energy Secretary Wright expressed a positive view of the potential for greater US-Bangladesh cooperation in the energy and nuclear technology sectors.

He noted that the development and expansion of modern nuclear technologies, including SMRs, were among the priorities of the US.

The two sides also discussed possible US assistance in the energy sector, technology and knowledge exchange, and ways to deepen mutual understanding and cooperation in nuclear science and technology.

They expressed interest in working together to further strengthen cooperation in nuclear science and technology as well as the broader energy sector.

Sales of state-run savings tools rebounded in the just-concluded fiscal year, signaling a recovery in demand for the government savings instruments after a sharp decline in the previous fiscal year.

However, the recovery remained fragile as investors continued to encash their certificates at a significant pace.

The instruments again recorded net repayment in the final month of the fiscal year, indicating continued pressure on household savings.

People familiar with the developments said the rise in fresh sales is encouraging, but the relatively weak net position suggests that investors remain cautious about locking their funds into savings certificates amid changing returns, liquidity needs and alternative investment opportunities.

Total sales of National Savings Certificates (NSCs) increased by Tk 240.74 billion, or 35.18 per cent, in FY26 over the previous fiscal year, according to Bangladesh Bank (BB) official data.

Total repayment also increased by Tk 175.75 billion, or 23.59 per cent, during the period.

As a result, the net sales of NSC stood at Tk 4.36 billion in FY26 against the net repayment of Tk 60.63 billion in FY25, reflecting a great improvement in NSC sales.

However, the government recorded a net repayment of Tk 3.69 billion in June, as repayments exceeded the volume of fresh sales.

The outstanding sales of NSCs stood at Tk 3.34 trillion at the end of June 2026, which was only 0.13 per cent higher than the amount a year earlier.

Dr Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, said the increase in the NSC sales was encouraging compared with the previous year's net repayment, but the relatively small net sales indicated that the recovery remained fragile.

"The renewed net repayment in June suggests that households are still cautious about keeping their funds locked in savings certificates. Investors are likely weighing returns against liquidity requirements and alternative investment opportunities," he said.

He said the government should focus not only on increasing gross sales but also on understanding the reasons behind the high level of repayments.

"A sustainable savings-certificate market requires predictable policies, prudent returns and greater confidence among small savers," Dr Reaz added.

He also suggested gradually diversifying the government's domestic borrowing sources and strengthening the bond market to reduce excessive reliance on NSCs.

Bangladesh's export competitiveness on the global market has weakened as the taka gets stronger in exchange with peer currencies, prompting exporters to entreat the government to consider currency devaluation. Exchanging Foreign Currency

The real effective exchange rate (REER) rose to 103.93, as of July, up 1.28 points from the previous month by official count, signifying further erosion in the country's export competitiveness.

The increase in the REER suggests that the taka has become relatively stronger in real terms against a basket of trading-partner currencies after adjusting for inflation and trade weights.

A sustained rise in the index makes Bangladeshi exports relatively more expensive on the international market while making imports cheaper for the importers.

"The central bank should consider depreciating the currency as the REER has surged," a senior Bangladesh Bank official told the FE, requesting not to be named.

"The export-earning sector might face problems if the taka remains overvalued."

The central bank calculates the REER against a basket of 17 currencies, using Fiscal year 2024 as the base year with an index value of 100.

The calculation takes into account trade patterns, including exports and imports, as well as remittance inflows.Managing Global Trade

An REER reading above 100 does not, by itself, mean that the taka must be depreciated by a particular amount. Rather, it indicates that the currency's real exchange-rate position is stronger than its level in the base period.

The direction and size of any adjustment depend on a range of factors, including inflation differentials, productivity, capital flows and external-sector conditions.

At the end of July, the nominal exchange rate stood at Tk123.98 to the US dollar. The rise in the REER indicates that the taka's real value has strengthened relative to the base period despite the nominal depreciation of the currency, the Bangladesh Bank said in its latest report.

The taka depreciated by about 0.35 per cent against the greenback between June and July, compared with a depreciation of more than 1.0 per cent in the Indian rupee over the same period, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

The divergence could put additional pressure on Bangladesh's exporters, particularly if competing economies experience faster currency depreciation while Bangladesh's real exchange rate remains elevated.

The REER is widely used in international economics as a gauge of a currency's external value and a country's trade competitiveness because it combines nominal exchange rates with relative price levels and trade weights.Taking Economics Courses

A decline in the REER, all else being equal, would improve the price competitiveness of Bangladeshi exports, while a further rise could make it harder for exporters to compete on the international market.

For Bangladesh, where export earnings are heavily concentrated in the ready-made garment sector or RMG, maintaining a competitive exchange

rate is particularly important as exporters face competition from other low-cost manufacturing economies.

Surplus liquidity in Bangladesh’s banking sector has risen 39.40 per cent in a year as deposit growth outpaces weak credit demand.

The excess stood at Tk 4.08 trillion at the end of June, up from Tk 2.93 trillion in the same month last year, according to the latest Bangladesh Bank data.

It increased by Tk 712.28 billion, or 21.14 per cent, from May, when the surplus stood at Tk 3.37 trillion.

Overall liquidity in the banking sector grew 26.47 per cent over the year to Tk 7.42 trillion in June, from Tk 5.86 trillion a year earlier.

Banks were required to maintain Tk 3.27 trillion under cash reserve ratio and statutory liquidity ratio rules. Bangladesh Bank put excess liquidity at Tk 4.08 trillion.

Of the total liquidity, Tk 168 billion was held in foreign currency.

With private-sector credit demand weak, commercial banks are parking part of their surplus funds in Bangladesh Bank’s Standing Deposit Facility, or SDF.

Banks placed around Tk 1.5 trillion in the facility in June, a record for the sector, despite its 7.50 per cent interest rate being well below the call money rate.

The liquidity glut is unevenly distributed, however.

Some banks still rely on the call money market, interbank repos and Bangladesh Bank’s repo facility to meet short-term funding needs and manage daily operations.

Such borrowing rose from Tk 2.66 trillion in June 2025 to Tk 2.93 trillion in December before reaching Tk 3.97 trillion this June.

Mutual Trust Bank Managing Director Syed Mahbubur Rahman said shrinking investment opportunities could turn the growing liquidity surplus into a major challenge for banks.

Banks still have to pay interest to depositors even when they earn relatively little from idle funds, he said.

Shahjalal Islami Bank Managing Director Mosleh Uddin Ahmed said weak loan demand was swelling banks’ uninvested funds and could push lending rates below inflation.

He also pointed to the industrial fuel crisis as a factor behind the slowdown in credit growth.

Bangladesh Bank data shows private-sector credit growth fell to 4.53 per cent in June, while deposit growth stood at 10.74 per cent.

Bangladeshi expatriates sent home US$2.455 billion in remittances during the first 26 days of August, according to the latest data released by Bangladesh Bank.Shopping For Authentic South Asian Apparel

Between August 1 and August 26, total remittance inflows registered a 22.3 per cent monthly growth compared to $2.007 billion received during the corresponding period of the previous year.

During the two-day period of August 25 and 26, the country received $115 million in remittances.

Cumulative remittance inflows from July 1 to August 26 in the current fiscal year 2026-27 reached $5.314 billion, reflecting an 18.5 per cent yearly growth over the $4.485 billion recorded during the same timeframe in FY26.

Central bank figures indicate a sustained upward momentum in official remittance channels, driven by strong inflows through formal banking networks.