The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has exempted businesses and companies with annual turnover of up to Tk 2 crore from minimum turnover tax, easing a tax burden that applies regardless of whether a business makes a profit.

The tax authority issued a notification yesterday introducing a revised structure for the minimum turnover tax.

Under the new arrangement, businesses and companies with annual turnover of up to Tk 2 crore will not have to pay the minimum turnover tax.

Those with annual turnover above Tk 2 crore and up to Tk 4 crore will pay the tax at a rate of 0.5 percent, while businesses and companies with turnover above Tk 4 crore will continue to pay the existing 1 percent minimum turnover tax.

The move is expected to provide relief to small businesses, particularly those operating on thin profit margins, as the minimum turnover tax is payable even when a business reports little or no profit.

The revised threshold is also aimed at reducing the tax burden on smaller businesses and encouraging compliance among firms with relatively low turnover.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has extended until September 30 the deadline for affected business entities to apply for policy support for restructuring their operations and financial obligations.

The Banking Regulation and Policy Department (BRPD) of the central bank issued a circular to the managing directors and chief executives of all scheduled banks on Monday, outlining updated guidelines to ensure the effective implementation of its debt-restructuring framework.

Under the updated guidelines, borrowers who previously received policy support through the "Selection Committee for Policy Support for Business and Financial Restructuring" are also eligible to submit fresh applications to their respective banks by September 30.

As per the circular, for single entities or groups with total outstanding loan balances of Tk 1,000 crore or more, special rescheduling can be approved for up to 15 years, including a maximum grace period of two years based on banker-customer relations.

In cases of special restructuring, banks may extend the existing tenure by up to an additional four years beyond the timeframe specified in BRPD Circular No. 16/2022.

For borrowers with total outstanding debts under Tk 1,000 crore, the tenure and conditions outlined in the original BRPD Circular No. 07/2025 will remain applicable.

Borrowers who previously received benefits under BRPD Circular No. 07/2025 or via the Selection Committee can avail themselves of the expanded facility. Any grace period already enjoyed will be adjusted against the permitted timeline.

Unclassified loans (STD-0, 1, 2, and SMA) as of September 30, 2026, will qualify for special restructuring, while adversely classified loans (Sub-Standard, Doubtful, and Bad/Loss) will be eligible for special rescheduling. Banks must finalise all applications upon receiving the required down payments by December 31, 2026.

The central bank stated that these revised instructions take effect immediately.

The government has kept retail prices of diesel, octane, petrol and kerosene unchanged for September, according to a notification issued today (31 August).

Under the existing pricing structure, diesel will continue to sell at Tk115 per litre, octane at Tk145, petrol at Tk140 and kerosene at Tk135.

The Energy and Mineral Resources Division said the prices approved by the authorities will remain effective throughout September, starting from 1 September.

The current prices were set through a notification issued by the division on 31 May 2026.

The latest decision was taken following a proposal from Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) submitted on 25 August.

Around 10 lakh agricultural households in Bangladesh, representing nearly 50 lakh people, are projected to need emergency agricultural assistance between June and November 2026, according to the recent report of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The number of households requiring emergency assistance has risen by 2 lakh since November 2025, FAO said in the report styled 14th round of “Monitoring Emergency Agriculture Support”. For the latest round of monitoring, FAO carried out month-long telephone interviews with 6,143 households across all 64 districts.

The report, published on 25 August, measured need in two different ways, which point to different districts.

By total number of households in need of assistance, Chattogram had the most in the country, followed by Rangpur, Dhaka and Rajshahi -- these divisions have large farming populations, so even a smaller percentage in need adds up to a bigger headcount. Rangpur is the only division that ranks high on both counts.

By share of farming households affected, Sylhet, Mymensingh and Rangpur ranked highest -- in these divisions, a larger proportion of agricultural households are in need, even though the divisions are smaller.

Needs were most acute in river-system areas, Haor basins and flash-flood hotspots, the report said, pointing to flooding and waterlogging as the monsoon season intensified.

The households in need were disproportionately resource-poor smallholders. Of the households in need, 57 percent cultivated less than one hectare of land, and 60 percent fell into the least well-off wealth bracket.

Their reliance on casual farm labour, casual off-farm labour and low-capital self-employment further limited their ability to finance production or absorb shocks, the report said.

Economic shocks affected around 84 percent of the households in need, while exposure to natural hazards reached 16 percent -- six percentage points higher than the previous round.

Financial pressure remained evident with 67 percent reporting that they had to purchase food on credit, 66 percent reporting reduced health expenditures and 30 percent reporting reduced spending on agricultural inputs, it added.

Crop producers faced mounting difficulties with inputs, plant health and marketing. Compared to the FAO 13th round observations published last November, reports of plant disease rose by 30 percentage points and difficulty accessing fertiliser rose by 17 points.

Crop sales difficulties nearly tripled, from 9 percent in the previous round to 30 percent, mainly due to low selling prices.

Crop inputs remained the top assistance priority, cited by 72 percent of households in need.

Demand for cash assistance saw the sharpest rise, up 41 percentage points from November observations to 57 percent -- which FAO linked to the combined effects of monsoon floods, food inflation and falling household incomes.

Livestock feed and veterinary services were flagged as priorities by 51 percent and 33 percent of households respectively.

The report called for a seasonally timed package combining input support, cash assistance, animal healthcare and water-management support ahead of the Aman cultivation period.

According to an assessment by the agriculture ministry, more than 2.43 lakh farmers across 43 districts suffered losses from heavy monsoon rains between July 7 and 19. More than 1.34 lakh tonnes of crops, worth around Tk 478 crore, were damaged across 24,138 hectares of farmland -- about 3 percent of the more than 8.17 lakh hectares under cultivation.

Reacting to the FAO findings, Agriculture Minister Mohammed Aminur Rashid told The Daily Star that the government is taking immediate steps to support affected farmers and strengthen the country’s agricultural resilience.

He said the ministry had responded to damaged seedbeds and crops by providing seeds, seedlings, relief materials and alternative land for seed production.

He also pointed to the introduction of BRRI dhan 118, an early-maturing rice variety meant to help farmers in Haor regions avoid losses from early flooding, which can be harvested 10-15 days sooner than conventional varieties.

The minister added that the government plans to boost domestic production of summer tomatoes and green chillies through incentives and expanded cultivation, and is working with international companies to develop processing and export opportunities for these and other value-added agricultural products.

He said the initiatives aim to protect farmers from climate-related losses while also improving incomes and building stronger agricultural markets.

Abu Saleh Md Shamim Alam Shibly, research fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said the FAO report is not just showing a humanitarian crisis.

“It also highlights how poorly the existing agricultural subsidy and social protection systems are targeting those who need support most,” he said.

“The government needs to ensure that agricultural support reaches the farmers who need it most, particularly those without secure land ownership or financial buffers,” he added.

The US Environmental Protection Agency on Monday granted small refinery exemptions worth 1.76 billion renewable fuel credits for the 2025 compliance year and said it will propose reallocating the waived obligations to larger refiners in future years, a move that could deepen divisions within the oil industry over biofuel policy.

The decision caps a week of intense lobbying by the Farm Belt and Big Oil over pending small-refinery exemption requests, pitting farmers who fear lost demand for biofuel crops against refiners seeking relief from costly blending mandates.

The exemptions were larger than expected. The EPA also plans to shift the waived obligations to produce biofuels such as ethanol from corn or sugarcane and biodiesel from oils and fats onto larger refiners in future years.

Those developments threatened to inflame tensions between the powerful energy and agriculture industries as the Trump administration seeks to lower fuel prices without alienating farm-state voters ahead of November's congressional elections.

The Renewable Fuel Standard, established by Congress, requires refiners and fuel importers to blend specified volumes of renewable fuels into the nation's transportation fuel supply or purchase credits known as renewable identification numbers, or RINs.

Small refineries can seek exemptions from those requirements if complying would cause them disproportionate economic hardship. When plants receive exemptions, the EPA can force other refiners to make up the production difference so that the overall quota of biofuel produced is met for the year.

The EPA, which administers the programme, has faced political pressure from both the refining and agricultural industries over how broadly to grant the waivers.

On Monday, the EPA said it has granted full exemptions to 18 out of 34 refineries that had sought exemptions from their Renewable Fuel Standard obligations for the 2025 compliance year. The agency has delayed 2025 compliance until 1 September and is currently seeking another extension.

The EPA statement said it granted 50% exemptions to 11 refineries, denied three petitions and determined two petitions to be ineligible.

Marathon, Chevron receive exemptions

Refineries owned by Marathon Petroleum and Chevron were among those that received exemptions, according to the EPA. The companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The exemptions totalled 1.76 billion worth of renewable fuel credits, roughly double the amount the agency estimated earlier this year.

The EPA said it will propose by the end of October requiring larger refiners to produce biofuels equal to the difference between the actual and estimated volumes exempted in the 2026 and 2027 obligation years.

This would ensure the issue of how the overall production quota is met gets addressed before the November midterm elections. But the plan would remain subject to public scrutiny and a regulatory process that does not guarantee it will take effect.

Ethanol blending credits, known as RINs, rose 16% to $2.07 each as of 3:45 pm ET, up from $1.78 on Thursday, according to market data.

Biofuel trade group Growth Energy said the exemptions appeared difficult to justify given refiners' recent profits, arguing that small refineries should receive relief only when they can demonstrate "disproportionate economic hardship."

The group praised lawmakers for fighting to preserve the biofuel quotas finalised earlier this year and said it would work with EPA "to fully account for lost biofuel gallons and make producers and farmers whole."

The American Petroleum Institute, the nation's largest oil trade group, said the larger-than-expected package of exemptions undermined regulatory certainty. API CEO Mike Sommers said granting exemptions "significantly above" EPA's projection would be "a significant step backward."

API also opposed shifting the exempted obligations to larger refiners in future years.

"Both actions would inject uncertainty into the fuels marketplace," Sommers wrote, adding that "new compliance surprises" would move "in the wrong direction at precisely the wrong moment."

Farm-state lawmakers have warned that broad exemptions could depress demand for crops and undermine the biofuel industry, while refiners argue that the mandates can impose steep costs when compliance credits are expensive.

Business leaders have called for sector-specific action plans to help industries prepare for Bangladesh’s graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category.

They said businesses urgently need to improve productivity, skills, technology, access to finance and trade capacity to remain competitive in global markets.

They also stressed that the plans should be based on reliable data, properly implemented and regularly monitored. Greater private sector participation is also needed in government reform efforts.

The recommendations came at a discussion organised by the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) at its Motijheel office yesterday on private sector participation in LDC-related reforms and strengthening business capacity.

FBCCI Administrator Md Fazlul Hoque chaired the meeting. FBCCI Secretary General Md Alamgir presented a report on the challenges and opportunities Bangladesh may face after graduating from the LDC category.

The report warned that Bangladesh could lose preferential market access in major export destinations, including duty-free benefits under the European Union’s Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) and Everything But Arms (EBA) scheme.

The pharmaceutical and other sectors may also face stricter intellectual property requirements, it said. The report called for greater private sector involvement in designing and implementing reforms to ensure a smooth transition.

TRADE SKILLS, IP RIGHTS KEY CONCERNS

Rajib H Chowdhury, senior vice-president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said Bangladesh needs stronger capacity to negotiate trade agreements and deal with emerging market-access challenges.

“We do not have enough negotiation capacity. We need to improve it,” he said.

KSM Mostafizur Rahman, president of the Bangladesh Agrochemical Manufacturers Association, said intellectual property rights would be a major challenge for several industries after graduation.

The pharmaceutical, agriculture and agro-chemical sectors could be particularly vulnerable, he said.

Shamim Ahmed, president of the Bangladesh Plastic Goods Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said much of the domestic plastic industry still relies on copying existing products.

This could make intellectual property rights a major challenge for the sector after graduation, just as they are expected to be for the pharmaceutical industry, he said.

Md Munir Chowdhury, national trade expert of the Bangladesh Regional Connectivity Project-1 under the Ministry of Commerce, said businesses should clearly identify the challenges facing their respective sectors.

Ismat Zerin Khan, president of the Patuakhali Women Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the LDC graduation strategy should also cover businesses outside Dhaka.

Fazlul Hoque urged all district chambers and sector-based associations to submit their specific recommendations to the FBCCI in writing. The federation will review the proposals and present them to policymakers, he said.

He said Bangladesh must make effective use of the additional three years to prepare for graduation.

“If we can strengthen the capacity of the private sector, our competitiveness in international markets will also improve,” he said, seeking cooperation from district chambers and sector-based associations.

Bangladesh is scheduled to graduate from the UN’s LDC category on November 24, 2026. Although the country meets all three graduation criteria, the government has sought a three-year extension until November 2029 to address economic challenges and complete reforms.
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The UN Committee for Development Policy (CDP) has backed a shorter extension, while the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) has forwarded Bangladesh’s request to the UN General Assembly, which will make the final decision before the graduation deadline.

Bangladesh's international bandwidth demand and the need for new investments is rising rapidly, but delays in deciding on new submarine cable connections could create a major capacity crunch by 2028, industry stakeholders warned at a workshop today (31 August).

The country's international bandwidth use, now about 13.5 terabits per second (Tbps), is projected to reach 19.1 Tbps in 2027 and nearly 27 Tbps in 2028, according to data presented at the event.

The Telecom and Technology Reporters Network Bangladesh (TRNB) organised the workshop titled "The need for new submarine cables to protect digital sovereignty and meet future bandwidth demand", in Dhaka yesterday.

International bandwidth use has increased nearly 260-fold over the past 13 years. It rose from just 50 Gbps in 2013 to 0.76 Tbps in 2018, 1.78 Tbps in 2020, 4.2 Tbps in 2022, 6.86 Tbps in 2024 and about 13.5 Tbps in 2026.

The demand could reach 54 Tbps by 2030, 305 Tbps by 2035 and 432 Tbps by 2036, according to the projections.

Bangladesh currently relies mainly on two government-owned submarine cables, SEA-ME-WE-4 and SEA-ME-WE-5, with capacities of 4.6 Tbps and 2.5 Tbps, respectively. Part of the remaining demand is met through bandwidth imported via International Terrestrial Cable (ITC) operators.

Bangladesh also has relatively few international submarine cable connections compared with regional peers. India is connected to 19 cables, Malaysia to 23, Thailand to 12 and the Philippines to 19, while Bangladesh's main connections currently number only two.

This leaves the country vulnerable to pressure on international internet services if a cable faces faults, maintenance or other disruptions, participants said.

Although the government's third submarine cable, SEA-ME-WE-6, is expected to add capacity, further expansion will be needed in the long term. SEA-ME-WE-4 is also scheduled to reach the end of its operational life in 2030.

Industry stakeholders see approval for privately owned submarine cables as a potential solution. They estimate that proposed cables could add around 51 Tbps of capacity, taking the country's total capacity to about 67 Tbps.

Mohammad Aminul Hakim, chief executive officer of Metacore Subcom Ltd, said private submarine cables could increase competition in the international bandwidth market and reduce dependence on bandwidth imported through ITCs.

He also said the proposal could create scope for lower internet prices.

Mashiur Rahman, chief executive officer of C-Data Communications Ltd, and Mahmud Shahed, project lead at Metacore Subcom Ltd, made separate presentations on Bangladesh's submarine cable infrastructure, future bandwidth demand and the need for new investment.

Stakeholders said planning, financing, constructing and commissioning submarine cables take several years. Waiting until demand and shortages become apparent could therefore delay the availability of required capacity.

They said Bangladesh should start planning new international connections now, considering demand beyond 2030.

Bangladesh will get a small benefit in garment exports to the US as its effective final tariff rate is slightly lower than those faced by China and Vietnam, two major competitors in the global apparel supply chain.

The US on July 24 imposed a new 10 percent duty on exports from Bangladesh to the American market, citing imports of goods produced with forced labour. With that, the country’s effective tariff rate now stands at 25.6 percent.

Meanwhile, China currently faces an effective tariff of 35.6 percent on garment exports to the US, including the 7.5 percent surcharge imposed in 2020, while Vietnam faces a rate of 28.1 percent.

An effective tariff rate is the overall import duty after taking into account all applicable US tariffs and surcharges on a product.

India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Cambodia face the same 25.6 percent duty as Bangladesh, according to data from the Tariffs Tool, a resource for estimating US import duties and understanding the tariff landscape.

The tariff rates were verified by Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), a research organisation based in Dhaka.

While the lower rate compared with China and Vietnam gives Bangladesh a competitive advantage, local garment exporters and economists say the benefit may be limited because the difference is not large and other factors, such as the ongoing energy crisis, are affecting production and shipments.

AK Azad, chairman of Ha-Meem Group, which ships the majority of its garments to the US, said the lower effective tariff rate could benefit Bangladesh, although the domestic energy crisis is affecting production.

Azad said that US retailers are not considering the duty but are instead asking for timely shipment of goods as production at industrial units is being affected.

“The government should resolve the energy crisis soon so that the local exporters can enjoy the benefit of lower rate to the American market,” he added.

MA Razzaque, chairman of RAPID, said that US tariff policy remains uncertain as the current US administration changes the rates frequently.

“Moreover, the difference in tariffs on Bangladesh compared with China and Vietnam is not too much. So, Bangladesh may not benefit much from the lower tariff rate compared to its key competitors in the US market,” he said.

“Overall, the tariff has been increased, and this is the fact,” he said, adding that because of the increase, US buyers would either reduce the price of garments or ask local suppliers to share part of the additional 10 percent duty imposed recently.

Razzaque said China has created some connector destinations such as Vietnam and Mexico through which it can do good business by producing garments and shipping them to the US. Bangladesh has no such connector destinations yet.

“But it is true that numerically, Bangladesh’s tariff is lower than China and Vietnam, which matters less now,” he said.

However, Inamul Haq Khan, senior vice-president of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), is hopeful that Bangladesh will benefit from the lower tariff.

Garment exports from Bangladesh to the US totalled $4.01 billion in the January-June period of this year, down 5.75 percent year-on-year, according to data from the Export Promotion Bureau.

Inamul said that although shipments to the American market are gradually rebounding recently, Bangladesh’s garment exports to the US might not increase much because of the lower rate.

He also said the energy crisis has been affecting production significantly.

Mohiuddin Rubel, founder and CEO of Bangladesh Apparel Voice, said buyers look at the total landed cost of garments rather than tariffs alone.

“The rate advantage only becomes a lasting one when we manage our capabilities better than competitors,” he said.

That means securing adequate energy, ensuring efficient port handling and keeping other costs under control, he added.

“Bangladesh also needed to shift towards non-cotton products and make use of its clean record,” he said.

The government’s net borrowing from the banking system stood at Tk 165,538 crore in fiscal year (FY) 2025-26, far exceeding its plan for the year amid falling foreign financing and lower-than-expected revenue collection, according to Bangladesh Bank (BB) data.

At the beginning of FY26, the government planned to borrow Tk 104,000 crore. It later revised its borrowing plan upward to Tk 118,000 crore for the year but ended up borrowing an additional Tk 47,538 crore.

At the end of June 2026, credit to the public sector grew 30 percent, while credit growth to the private sector increased by 4.47 percent, according to BB data.

Two analysts have raised the alarm, warning that increased government borrowing could crowd out loans for the private sector and undermine economic stability and its gradual recovery.

“Persistent government borrowing creates two forms of crowding out,” said Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh.

He said the immediate pressure from high government borrowing from the banking system may appear limited because aggregate liquidity remains comfortable and private credit growth is already weak.

“However, banks have a strong incentive to invest in relatively safe government securities rather than finance productive but riskier private activity. If investment demand recovers, continued government borrowing will place upward pressure on interest rates and restrict credit, particularly for SMEs, working capital and new investment,” he said.

“It will also crowd development priorities out of the budget,” Ashik said, adding that since salaries, subsidies and interest payments are difficult to reduce, development expenditure and the quality of Annual Development Programme implementation will probably bear much of the adjustment.

“Unless revenue mobilisation improves dramatically, the government will again have to exceed its borrowing target, accumulate arrears or compress expenditure.”

The BB, in its monthly report on major economic indicators, said that in FY26 the National Board of Revenue (NBR), which collects roughly 86 percent of total annual revenue, recorded 12 percent year-on-year growth in tax collection, a significant leap from 2.23 percent growth registered the previous year.

Revenue still lagged behind expectations, reaching only 82.60 percent of the government’s target, it added.

FY26 was the 10th year in a row that the NBR missed the government’s revised annual collection target. The tax authority collected Tk 415,500 crore, falling Tk 88,000 crore short of the revised goal for the fiscal year, according to provisional data.

“Consequently, the government progressively relied more on borrowing to finance its deficit. Specifically, deficit financing was primarily sourced from domestic sources, with the banking system accounting for the major share of net domestic borrowing in FY26,” the BB report said.

Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional director, research at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said the substantial revenue shortfall is now evident, as is the extent to which bank borrowing overshot the target.

“Together, these outcomes highlight a noteworthy absence of fiscal discipline.”

For the current FY27, the NBR has been given a target of Tk 604,000 crore to finance the Tk 938,000 crore budget. The tax target is 45 percent higher than the actual collection in FY26, and it would be highly challenging for the NBR amid a slowdown in the economy.

Of the deficit estimated at Tk 243,000 crore, the government plans to borrow Tk 127,000 crore from domestic sources, with Tk 112,000 crore coming from the banking sector.

The continued high borrowing from the banking sector, Ashik said, has created a broader concern of “a growing fiscal-monetary contradiction”.

“Bangladesh Bank cannot sustainably reduce inflation and revive productive credit while fiscal policy continues to absorb a disproportionate share of banking resources. The inflationary risk would become greater if the central bank were ultimately required to accommodate this borrowing through additional liquidity,” he warned.

MA Razzaque, chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), said the government has already stretched expenditure well beyond what its current revenue capacity can comfortably support.

“The pressure could intensify if expected foreign financing falls short, particularly as the FY27 budget appears to assume an ambitious level of external assistance.”

In FY26, net foreign financing decreased by 20 percent year-on-year, according to the BB.

In July, Bangladesh received $180 million in foreign loans, down from the amount received in the same month of the previous year. But it repaid $453 million in principal and interest to foreign creditors.

Razzaque said the government is taking on more and more spending commitments. A new pay scale, the Family Card Programme, support for business activity, help for financially troubled banks, and higher development spending will all require money.

“But revenue is not growing fast enough, there has been little serious effort to cut or rationalise spending, and foreign aid is also likely to fall short. That makes bank borrowing the easy, sometimes seemingly the only, option, but for Bangladesh now it is an option we can increasingly ill afford.”

He said crowding out has so far been masked by exceptionally weak private-sector credit demand. “With businesses borrowing and investing less, heavy government borrowing has not yet created acute competition for bank funds,” he said.

“But as economic activity strengthens and private credit demand recovers, continued high government borrowing could begin to constrain financing available to firms and raise borrowing costs.”

Bangladesh Bank (BB) is introducing a comprehensive electronic Foreign Exchange (FX) Market Module to automate and streamline foreign exchange intervention auctions, interbank FX transactions and the collection of market data for the preparation of the reference exchange rate.Market Research Reports

According to the Operational Guidelines on the FX Market Module, the system is designed to improve efficiency, transparency, accuracy and regulatory oversight in the country’s foreign exchange market.

The module will automate the entire FX intervention process, including auction management, bid submission and evaluation, allocation, reporting and record-keeping. Bangladesh Bank may conduct FX buying or selling auctions when required as part of its market intervention operations.

Under the system, Bangladesh Bank will publish auction notices specifying the auction amount, date and time, transaction type, eligible participants and other applicable requirements. Authorised Dealer (AD) banks will then submit their bids electronically within the prescribed cut-off time.

The system will also operate as a centralised electronic dealing platform for interbank FX transactions among AD banks.

Spot, Forward and Swap transactions will be conducted through the platform, with trade confirmation, transaction monitoring, reporting, audit trails and record management incorporated into the system.Bangladesh Trade Data

For Spot transactions, the settlement cycle may be up to T+2, while Forward transactions will be settled according to the specified tenor. Swap transactions will consist of two legs-a spot transaction and a forward transaction, or vice versa-with separate settlement procedures for the near and far legs.

The guidelines provide separate responsibilities for Front Office, Mid Office and Back Office users of AD banks.

Front Office users will create and accept FX deals and submit or authorise auction bids, while Mid Office users will administer user IDs and dealer limits. Back Office users will handle foreign currency and taka settlement as well as reporting.

The new system will also support preparation and publication of the official FX Reference Rate (RR).

AD banks will submit standardised client-level data on export, import and remittance transactions, which will be used to calculate the reference rate for the foreign exchange market.

Under the guidelines, AD banks will have to submit client-level FX transaction data three times on each business day.

Data covering transactions up to 11:00am must be submitted by 11:30am, while data up to 4:00pm must be submitted by 4:30pm. Transactions conducted after 4:00pm may be reported by 11:00am on the following working day.

Even if there is no reportable FX transaction during a reporting period, banks will have to submit a “Null Report”.Business News Portal

Transactions equivalent to US$100,000 or above are required for construction of the reference rate, while wage-earner remittance transactions must be reported regardless of their size.

The guidelines say AD banks will be able to submit client-level data either through a prescribed Excel file or by entering individual transactions directly into the system.

Submitted data will be subject to approval by designated Checker users, creating a maker-checker mechanism for the reporting process.

The electronic platform is expected to reduce manual intervention and processing time while strengthening transparency and standardisation in Bangladesh’s foreign exchange market.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) is planning to frame a regulation to bring certain “public interest companies” to the stock market under the Securities Act, said its Chairman Masud Khan yesterday.

He made the remarks as chief guest at an open discussion on the current state of the capital market, organised by the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) at the DSE’s multipurpose hall in Dhaka.

Under the Securities Act, the stock market regulator has the authority to direct any company to list in the public interest, Masud said.

He said the commission now plans to define what qualifies as a “public interest company” and frame rules under the existing provision. “Those companies falling under certain categories will have to apply.”

The move is aimed at bringing eligible companies to the market rather than relying solely on voluntary listing decisions, according to the BSEC chief.

He said the commission expects direct listing, a revamped initial public offering (IPO) process and a hybrid listing mechanism to encourage more good companies to get listed.

The direct listing regulation will be made public for feedback within days, while the IPO rules will be made public within a few months, he said.

Noting that the IPO process currently takes too long, Masud said companies are required to submit documents to both the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and the BSEC.

He explained that assessments by both agencies lead to a prolonged listing process, which can sometimes take a year to a year and a half. “This is how the patient dies.”

To address this, the BSEC is proposing an extended audit under the new IPO rules, the BSEC chief said. The audit would go beyond a conventional statutory audit, verifying whether a company’s assets, land titles, receivables and liabilities actually exist.

Under the proposed system, auditors would certify financial statements as “true and fair”, after which the DSE would not raise further questions about those statements. The exchange would instead assess whether the company’s business model is viable.

“From now on, issuing companies will submit IPO applications to DSE or Chittagong Stock Exchange and give us a copy,” Masud said. “We at BSEC will not ask any questions. All questions will go to DSE or CSE.”

He said several large companies are already showing interest in listing through direct listing.

The hybrid mechanism is also expected to be introduced within a week, he said. Under it, a company would be able to offload some shares through direct listing and some through an IPO.

Beyond listing reforms, the BSEC and DSE have taken steps to develop the bond market, including cutting trading fees, he added.

Also speaking at the event, Md Mominul Islam, chairman of the DSE, said the stock exchange had already decided to reduce bond listing fees and other fees by around 80 percent to revamp the corporate bond market.

He also said the bourse is working on returning client funds stuck at several brokerage houses.

Thousands of investors have fallen victim to embezzlement at several brokerage firms over the past five years, The Daily Star has reported previously.

Nearly a dozen brokerage houses have reportedly embezzled hundreds of crores of taka over the last few years.

Four brokerage houses -- Moshihor Securities, Banco Securities, Crest Securities and Tamha Securities -- collectively embezzled around Tk 270 crore since 2020, according to the BSEC.

Earlier in May this year, the regulator fined four firms -- NBL Securities, Gibson Securities, UCB Stock Brokerage and Khulna Printing & Packaging -- and several of their officials Tk 1.09 crore for securities law violations and fraud in the stock market.

Later in June, a BSEC probe found that brokerage firm Salta Capital had embezzled around Tk 100 crore in client funds and shares.

Several brokers at the event called for bringing good companies to the market, simplifying the listing process, and ensuring greater transparency and accountability.

They also said the exchange should not issue notices over large buy orders from a single brokerage house, but should instead examine whether brokerage houses are conducting repeated trades to influence the index.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has unveiled an ambitious roadmap to rescue the country's capital market from a decade of stagnation, promising to dismantle the "analog" hurdles of the "paper age" and transition into a technology-driven institutional powerhouse.

Speaking at an open discussion titled "The Current State of the Bangladesh Capital Market and Way Forward", organised by the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) at DSE Tower today (31 August), BSEC Chairman Masud Khan outlined a "Mega Plan" featuring digital share trading, T+1 settlement, AI-powered surveillance and mandatory market participation for large companies.

He identified the "IPO drought", liquidity crunch and lack of investor confidence as the major challenges facing the market, and said the regulator aims to shift it from a "retail-dominated, rumor-based" environment to one driven by professional analysis and valuation.

Masud, who has 46 years of corporate leadership experience, said the current government is perhaps the most market-friendly in Bangladesh's history. He cited the FY2026-27 budget's market-oriented measures, particularly the treatment of the 15% tax on individual dividend income as a "final tax liability".

He said such structural changes are needed to encourage informed investment rather than herd behaviour.

Reflecting on his first two months at the regulator, Masud said the removal of the floor price on his second day in office was a pivotal step towards restoring free-market dynamics.

He said MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) has decided to resume publishing the Bangladesh Index from November, while the resolution of Beximco Pharmaceuticals' GDR listing issue on the London Stock Exchange within a month of his tenure has helped restore the country's international credibility and could encourage other large local companies to pursue global listings.

Trading to go fully digital

Masud described the current system of using physical documents for buy and sell orders as a "horror story", saying it creates scope for signature forgery and fund misappropriation.

He said BSEC will introduce digital order placement through mobile apps, bringing the process in line with global practices.

The regulator will also digitise its internal file management and adopt IAS 34 to allow "condensed" quarterly reporting, which Masud said would reduce excessive regulatory queries to listed companies.

Easier IPO, direct listing

Addressing the IPO drought that has persisted since 2024, Masud said the existing public-issue rules are discouraging entrepreneurs from entering the capital market.

He said BSEC is overhauling direct-listing rules, previously restricted to government companies, to allow all companies, including large multinationals and profitable local firms, to list directly.

The mandatory offloading requirement will also be reduced from 25% to 10%. BSEC is additionally planning a "hybrid" capital-raising model combining IPO and direct listing, which Masud said could be approved within seven days for fundamentally strong companies.

To further institutionalise the market, BSEC is formulating rules to bring "Public Interest Entities" (PIEs) into the capital market. The category would cover companies using Tk300 crore or more in public funds through equity or bank loans.

Masud also indicated that a new law could require major multinational branches, including Standard Chartered and HSBC, to register as local companies and eventually list on the stock exchange.

T+1 settlement, AI surveillance

BSEC is moving towards a T+1 settlement cycle, with a long-term goal of T+0, or same-day settlement.

Masud said he is in discussions with Bangladesh Bank to extend Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) hours to facilitate the cash side of stock transactions.

He has also given the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) one year to shift its surveillance department to an AI-based automated system. The system would use automatic triggers to detect and halt suspicious trading, reducing human intervention and potential bias, he said.

Masud called on market stakeholders to support the reforms, saying BSEC would not intervene in price levels but would remain focused on ensuring a fair, transparent and internationally compliant market.

DSE cuts bond listing fees

DSE Managing Director Nuzhat Anwar and Chairman Mominul Islam expressed support for coordinated reforms.

Mominul said the DSE board had reduced listing fees for bonds by up to 80% to encourage fixed-income trading on the main board.

He also said the DSE is working to resolve the long-standing issue of investors whose funds are trapped in closed brokerage houses, estimating that 95% of affected investors would be repaid in full by the end of this year.

Meanwhile, Riad Mahmud, president of the Bangladesh Association of Publicly Listed Companies (BAPLC), urged BSEC to act as a "vanguard" for listed companies.

He said the worsening energy crisis is now a direct threat to industrial survival and called for BSEC and Bangladesh Bank to work together to ensure listed companies receive priority in working-capital financing to protect production and jobs.

He also urged the regulator to remove legal barriers preventing stronger corporate groups from taking over sick or non-operational listed companies.

Investor confidence in Bangladesh's stock market is weakening as persistent selling pressure, weak fresh fund inflows and concerns over the economic outlook continue to weigh on market activity.

The DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), fell another 16 points today (31 August) to close at 5,598, taking its total loss to 306 points, or nearly 5%, in just 13 trading sessions. The index also slipped below the 5,600-mark for the first time in around two months.

According to EBL Securities' daily market commentary, the downbeat capital market extended its negative trajectory despite brief recovery attempts by bargain hunters. Persistent domestic headwinds and a lack of fresh positive catalysts continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

Although the market staged intermittent recovery attempts, the indices failed to sustain the momentum as selling pressure regained dominance in the latter half of the session, reflecting weak investor conviction across the market, the brokerage said.

Trading activity has also plunged. Daily turnover on the DSE fell 61%, or Tk734 crore, over the past 18 trading sessions, from Tk1,211 crore on 4 August to Tk477 crore today.

The DS30 index declined 9 points to 2,113, while the DSES index fell 4 points to 1,124. Of the 391 companies and mutual funds traded today, 192 declined, 128 advanced and 69 remained unchanged.

Market participants say the lack of fresh or net fund inflows is one of the biggest challenges facing the market. Much of the current trading is driven by existing investors reallocating funds rather than new money entering the market.

As a result, buying pressure remains too weak to sustain a recovery. They said a durable market rally requires a steady flow of fresh funds; otherwise, selling pressure can quickly overwhelm buying interest, even in fundamentally strong stocks.

The DSEX had earlier climbed from around 5,200 points to nearly 5,900, but failed to sustain the momentum. The recent correction has further increased uncertainty over the market's near-term direction.

The weakness comes despite bank deposit and lending rates starting to decline, while yields on government treasury bills and bonds are also moving downward. Under normal circumstances, this could make equities more attractive, but investors have yet to shift significant funds into the stock market.

Market participants said many institutional and large retail investors are staying on the sidelines. While some have reduced their equity exposure, others are waiting for lower prices before making fresh investments. Meanwhile, some retail investors are selling shares over fears of further losses, adding to the selling pressure.

Ongoing gas and electricity shortages are also weighing on investor sentiment. Many manufacturing companies are operating below capacity due to inadequate gas and power supplies, raising concerns over production, sales and profitability in sectors such as textiles, ceramics and plastics.

EBL Securities also highlighted concerns over the short-term market outlook amid the gas and power crisis as a factor negatively affecting investor sentiment.

Increased regulatory scrutiny is another source of caution. The DSE is investigating several listed companies, while the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has intensified spot inspections of market institutions.

Market participants said stronger regulatory oversight is positive in the long run as it can improve transparency and accountability. However, a series of investigations and regulatory actions could make investors cautious in the short term, especially amid weak liquidity.

The Tk775 crore rights issue of United Commercial Bank (UCB) could further strain liquidity, as some investors may sell existing shares to raise funds for the issue, increasing selling pressure in the secondary market.

However, they do not see the current weakness as the start of a prolonged downturn. Investor interest could return if uncertainty eases, fresh funds enter the market and fundamentally strong stocks become attractive at lower valuations.

For now, the 306-point fall in the DSEX in 13 sessions and the 61% decline in turnover over 18 sessions indicate a significant deterioration in market liquidity and investor confidence.

The US government plans to take a 35% passive stake in Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt's North American Blue Energy Partners, the Wall Street Journal reported ‌on Saturday, citing people involved in negotiating the deal.

The US also plans to secure preferential rights to purchase 20% of the company's production at cost, the WSJ reported.

The Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital plans to structure the investment ⁠through penny warrants that would yield the US an equity ownership in the business without significant capital investment, the WSJ reported.

The report comes only a day after US President Donald Trump said on Friday that the US would take control of a fifth of Venezuela's vast oil reserves.

Trump provided few details about the arrangement, saying only that the US had secured majority ‌control ⁠of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven oil reserves through a partnership with private business.

Responding to a Reuters request for comment, chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said: "The Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) ⁠does not take equity stakes in private companies. Under its statutory authority, OSC's role is strictly limited to providing capital assistance in the ⁠form of a loan, loan guarantee, or technical assistance (including transaction structuring for developing and financing investments)."

The White House and ⁠North American Blue Energy Partners did not respond to requests for comments outside regular business hours.

Nepal may need $4 billion to $5 billion to rebuild after this week’s devastating floods, Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle told Reuters on Saturday, a bill equal to nearly a tenth of the economy.

“The initial estimate is between $4-$5 billion. Just an estimate,” Wagle said. “We will require much less than what we needed for the 2015 earthquake. Loss and damage is being assessed.”
A glacier collapse on Wednesday unleashed a huge torrent of rock, ice, mud and debris through Himalayan mountain river systems, killing more than 600 people in Nepal and China’s Tibet, with more than 2,000 still unaccounted for.

The flood levelled towns in the border area, sweeping away bridges and roads and damaging major hydropower stations.

Wagle did not elaborate on why the reconstruction bill was expected to be less than the $9 billion spent after the 2015 magnitude-7.8 quake, Nepal’s worst recorded disaster.

It killed nearly 9,000 people, destroyed more than half a million homes and caused losses estimated at around a third of Nepal’s economy.

Wednesday’s floods will nevertheless be a major blow to an economy reliant on remittances, tourism and hydropower, damaging power projects that account for more than 12 percent of national generating capacity.

British businesses turned the most confident since March this month, bolstered by a ​rosier view of the economy, according to ‌a survey that echoes other signs of an improving outlook.

Lloyds, a bank, said on Friday that its monthly business ​confidence index had risen by 4 points ​in August to +53 percent, above its average +47 percent over the past 12 months.

“Overall, businesses are reporting stronger ​customer demand, greater optimism about the wider economy ​and growing confidence in their own trading outlook, all of which will be helping to support investment and ​growth plans,” Amanda Murphy, chief executive of ​Lloyds Business and Commercial Banking, said.

মধ্যপ্রাচ্য যুদ্ধ শুরুর পর এখন পর্যন্ত জি৭ জোটভুক্ত দেশগুলোর ঘাড়ে চেপেছে ১ হাজার ৬০০ কোটি ডলার ঋণ বাবদ বাড়তি ব্যয়ের বোঝা। এ প্রবণতা অব্যাহত থাকলে আগামী বছরের প্রথম প্রান্তিকের (জানুয়ারি-মার্চ) শেষ নাগাদ বাড়তি ব্যয় ৩ হাজার ৪০০ কোটি ডলারে পৌঁছতে পারে।

ফাইন্যান্সিয়াল টাইমসের (এফটি) সাম্প্রতিক বিশ্লেষণে এসব তথ্য উঠে এসেছে। বিভিন্ন সরকারের বন্ড ইস্যুর তথ্য বিশ্লেষণ করে বাড়তি ঋণ ব্যয়ের হিসাব করা হয়েছে। এতে দেখা গেছে, জি৭-এর প্রায় সব দেশেই বিভিন্ন মেয়াদের সরকারি বন্ডের ইল্ড ফেব্রুয়ারির তুলনায় এখন বেশি। ফলে নতুন করে ঋণ নিতে সরকারগুলোর বেশি অর্থ ব্যয় করতে হচ্ছে।

বাড়তি ঋণ ব্যয়ের সবচেয়ে বড় অংশ বহন করছে যুক্তরাষ্ট্র। দেশটির ক্ষেত্রে এ পর্যন্ত অতিরিক্ত ব্যয়ের পরিমাণ আনুমানিক ১ হাজার ৬০ কোটি ডলার। জি৭-ভুক্ত দেশের মধ্যে যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের অর্থনীতি সবচেয়ে বড়। দেশটির সরকারি বন্ডের বাজারও বিশ্বের বৃহত্তম। ফলে ইল্ড বাড়ার প্রভাবও দেশটির ওপর বেশি পড়ছে।

বর্তমান পরিস্থিতি অব্যাহত থাকলে আগামী বছরের প্রথম প্রান্তিকের শেষ নাগাদ যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের অতিরিক্ত সুদ বাবদ ব্যয় আরো ২ হাজার ১৭০ কোটি ডলার বাড়তে পারে ধারণা করছেন বাজার বিশ্লেষকরা।

সাম্প্রতিক সপ্তাহগুলোয় যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের বন্ড ইল্ড দ্রুত বেড়েছে। এর পেছনে রয়েছে দেশটির বাড়তে থাকা সরকারি ঋণ নিয়ে বিনিয়োগকারীদের উদ্বেগ। একই সঙ্গে ইরানের সঙ্গে যুদ্ধের কারণে মূল্যস্ফীতি আরো বাড়ার আশঙ্কাও কাজ করছে। যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের অর্থমন্ত্রী স্কট বেসেন্ট দীর্ঘমেয়াদি বন্ড কেনার মাধ্যমে ইল্ড কম রাখার চেষ্টা করলেও এর উত্থান থামেনি।

তবে শুধু যুক্তরাষ্ট্র নয়। যুক্তরাজ্য, ইতালি, জার্মানি ও জাপানের মতো বড় জ্বালানি আমদানিকারক দেশও চাপে রয়েছে। হরমুজ প্রণালি বন্ধ হয়ে যাওয়ায় সংকট তৈরি হয়েছে জ্বালানি সরবরাহে। এতে মূল্যস্ফীতির প্রত্যাশা বেড়েছে। এর প্রভাব পড়ছে এসব দেশের বন্ডের ইল্ডেও।

এফটির হিসাবে, ১ হাজার ৬০০ কোটি ডলারের বাড়তি ব্যয় নির্ধারণ করা হয়েছে যুদ্ধ শুরুর আগের ইল্ডের সঙ্গে বর্তমান ঋণ ব্যয়ের তুলনা করে। আর ৩ হাজার ৪০০ কোটি ডলারের সম্ভাব্য ব্যয়ের হিসাব করা হয়েছে বিভিন্ন দেশের অর্থ মন্ত্রণালয়ের প্রকাশিত বন্ড ইস্যু পরিকল্পনার ভিত্তিতে। কোন দেশে কোন মেয়াদের কত বন্ড ইস্যু হবে, সে তথ্যও হিসাবের মধ্যে নেয়া হয়েছে।

জেফরিজের প্রধান ইউরোপীয় অর্থনীতিবিদ মোহিত কুমার বলেন, ‘সুদহার বাড়া শেয়ার ও ঋণবাজারের জন্য বড় ঝুঁকি।’ তার মতে, সুদহার আরো বাড়লে শেয়ারবাজারে নেতিবাচক প্রতিক্রিয়া দেখা দিতে পারে। বিশেষ করে যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের ১০ বছর মেয়াদি ট্রেজারি বন্ডের ইল্ড ৫ শতাংশের ওপরে উঠলে শেয়ারবাজারে চাপ বাড়তে পারে।

বন্ডের ইল্ড বাড়লে শেয়ারের তুলনায় বন্ডের আকর্ষণ বাড়ে। একই সময়ে কোম্পানিগুলোর ঋণ নেয়ার খরচও বেড়ে যায়। এতে মুনাফার ওপর চাপ তৈরি হতে পারে। ফলে উচ্চ ইল্ড শুধু সরকারি অর্থ ব্যবস্থার জন্য নয়, বেসরকারি খাত ও শেয়ারবাজারের জন্যও ঝুঁকি তৈরি করছে।

প্রতিবেদন বলছে, বিশ্বের বিভিন্ন দেশে এখন বাজেট ঘাটতিও বাড়ছে। সরকারগুলো অর্থনীতিতে ব্যয় বাড়াচ্ছে। এর সঙ্গে যুক্ত হচ্ছে প্রতিরক্ষা খাতের ব্যয়, অবকাঠামো উন্নয়ন ও পরিবেশবান্ধব জ্বালানি খাতে বিনিয়োগ। এসব কারণে সরকারের অর্থের চাহিদা বাড়ছে। ফলে ঋণের বাজারে চাপ আরো বাড়তে পারে।

পিটারসন ইনস্টিটিউটের প্রেসিডেন্ট অ্যাডাম পোসেনের মতে, মূল্যস্ফীতির ঝুঁকির পাশাপাশি বিভিন্ন দেশের রাজনৈতিক স্থিতিশীলতা নিয়েও ঝুঁকি রয়েছে। যুক্তরাষ্ট্র, ফ্রান্স, জাপান ও যুক্তরাজ্যের রাজনৈতিক পরিস্থিতিও বন্ডের ইল্ডে প্রভাব ফেলতে পারে। এর সঙ্গে ভূরাজনৈতিক উত্তেজনা যুক্ত হলে ঝুঁকি আরো বাড়বে।

প্রতিরক্ষা, জনসংখ্যাগত চাহিদা, অবকাঠামো ও সবুজ বিনিয়োগে ব্যয় বাড়ায় দীর্ঘমেয়াদে সুদহার বাড়তে পারে। এর সঙ্গে যুক্ত হয়েছে কৃত্রিম বুদ্ধিমত্তা বা এআই খাতে বিপুল বিনিয়োগ। সম্পতি বিপুল অর্থ যাচ্ছে এআই অবকাঠামো তৈরিতে। এতে সরকারি বন্ডের মতো অন্যান্য বিনিয়োগ মাধ্যমের জন্য অর্থের জোগান কমে যেতে পারে। ফলে বন্ডের ইল্ডের ওপর আরো ঊর্ধ্বমুখী চাপ তৈরি হওয়ার আশঙ্কা রয়েছে।

আইএনজির প্রধান বৈশ্বিক অর্থনীতিবিদ জেমস নাইটলির মতে, বাড়তি ঋণ ব্যয় শুধু সরকারি অর্থ ব্যবস্থার জন্য সমস্যা নয়। যুক্তরাষ্ট্রে এটি এরই মধ্যে অর্থনৈতিক কর্মকাণ্ডেও প্রভাব ফেলছে। কারণ পরিবার ও কোম্পানির ঋণ নেয়ার খরচ বেড়ে যাচ্ছে। দেশটির আবাসন বাজারও স্থবির হয়ে পড়েছে। ইল্ডের ব্যবধান বাড়তে থাকলে বন্ধকি ঋণের সুদ ৭ শতাংশের ওপরে উঠতে পারে বলে সতর্ক করেন তিনি।

ইল্ডের উত্থানকে দীর্ঘস্থায়ী প্রবণতা হিসেবে দেখার বিষয়ে সতর্ক করেছেন মরগ্যান স্ট্যানলির ইউরোপীয় রেট কৌশল বিভাগের প্রধান জিয়ানলুকা সালফোর্ড। সব মিলিয়ে বন্ড ইল্ডের সাম্প্রতিক উত্থান এখন জি৭ দেশগুলোর জন্য নতুন আর্থিক চাপ তৈরি করছে। যুদ্ধ ও মূল্যস্ফীতির ঝুঁকির সঙ্গে বাড়ছে সরকারি ঋণ। একই সময়ে এআই ও অন্যান্য খাতে বিনিয়োগের চাহিদাও বাড়ছে। ফলে বিশ্বজুড়ে ঋণ ও বিনিয়োগের অর্থের চাহিদা-জোগানের পরিস্থিতিতে পরিবর্তন এসেছে। এমন পরিস্থিতিতে ইল্ড আরো বাড়লে সরকারি ঋণ ব্যয়ের পাশাপাশি ব্যবসা ও বিনিয়োগেও এর প্রভাব পড়তে পারে।

Six months into the US-Israeli war with Iran, governments across Europe and Asia are scrambling to accelerate a renewables build-out in a bid to cut dependence on fossil fuel imports, providing a fresh impetus to the global energy transition.

As the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked off a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, governments from South Korea and Thailand to the European Union have pledged to increase funding for renewables.

Has the conflict delivered a boon to the clean energy transition? Here are some ways to measure the impact.

RENEWABLES ARE SURGING, BUT COAL IS ALSO UP

Renewable power output is soaring across the world, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects it to become the top electricity source for the first time this year.

Since the war began, rooftop solar has proved attractive because it is quick and cheap to install.

In the Philippines, high power prices driven by costlier imported fuel are pushing households and businesses onto solar, while a battery subsidy scheme is fuelling a rooftop resurgence in Australia.

European demand for rooftop systems has also jumped since the war began.

But coal is rising too.

With the Strait of Hormuz closed and renewables still unable to guarantee round-the-clock power, coal-fired generation is set to grow — though the IEA’s forecast 8.5 percent jump in renewable output this year dwarfs the 1.4 percent rise in coal.

In the United States, where President Donald Trump has opposed green energy, renewable generation rose 10 percent in the first half of the year from the same period in 2025.

EMISSIONS ARE STILL CLIMBING

Even as renewable generation surges, the IEA expects emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change to rise 1.1 percent this year to an all-time high of 14.2 billion tonnes.

In 2027, the IEA expects coal output to dip by 0.7 percent, but gas-fired power generation to rise 1.5 percent from this year’s levels. Curbing climate change will require even more renewable energy and investments in power grids and energy storage.

ASIA BEARS THE BRUNT

Asian economies most dependent on oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz have absorbed the sharpest shock.

China leaned hard into solar, with output rising more than three times as fast as coal between March and July.

India, Vietnam and South Korea went the other way, burning more coal.

Some European countries also saw extra coal burn, but the IEA expects EU coal generation to resume its decade-long decline in 2026.

Last month, the Vietnamese government said it was considering building more coal plants to secure supply — despite pledging at the 2021 U.N. climate summit to build no new coal after 2030.

TRANSPORT

Most of the world’s oil is burned as transport fuel — in cars, trucks, ships and planes.

The war has not collapsed that demand, but it has reversed the growth forecasters had pencilled in.

Higher prices, reduced air travel, softer Chinese consumption and faster EV adoption mean the world is now likely using less oil for transport than projected before the war.

Goldman Sachs estimates gasoline-related demand fell about 20 percent at the April peak of the disruption; GL Consulting puts the drop nearer 15 percent.

Costlier fuel has pushed drivers toward EVs, and China — the world’s biggest maker — has seen its EV export value top $10 billion for the first time this year.

Electric models made up 63 percent of the country’s passenger-car retail sales in June, up from 53 percent a year earlier, according to BofA analysts, who estimate electrification explains roughly a third of China’s year-to-date decline in crude imports.

EV sales have also soared across Europe since the war began as high oil prices have caused pain at the pump.

HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?

As long as Hormuz stays shut, high oil and gas prices are likely to persist, strengthening the case for countries to invest in cheaper, home-grown renewables and reduce their exposure to volatile fuel costs.

But whether a shift away from oil and gas gathers even more momentum is difficult to predict.

“Changing a nation’s energy mix requires investments, and higher interest rates will make the considerable upfront capital required for renewables and power grids more expensive. Thus, while the present conflict is likely to ultimately favour decarbonization, it is not a one-way street,” said Sverre Alvik, vice president and energy transition outlook director at DNV.

Many large Asian markets have substantial gas and coal resources to provide a buffer against Middle East supply disruptions and a lot more US LNG supply is expected to come online between 2026 and 2030.

“As this supply materialises, LNG should become more affordable for import-dependent Asian markets, reducing the incentive for a permanent shift away from gas driven solely by the current conflict,” said Victor del Carpio Neyra, senior research associate at Aurora Energy Research.

European Union nations outside the euro have made little to no progress in convergence in recent years and even Hungary, the nation most actively ​discussing accession, meets none of the key criteria, a European Central ‌Bank report showed on Wednesday.

All EU members except for Denmark have a legal requirement to adopt the common currency but non-compliance is not penalised, so only a few are actively ​working on joining, with most others preferring to retain the leverage provided ​by an independent monetary policy.

"Progress towards compliance with the convergence criteria ⁠has been held back by external shocks," the ECB said in a biennial ​report, echoing a similar conclusion made two years ago and suggesting that progress ​has essentially stalled.

"Public finances have deteriorated in most countries since the 2024 Convergence Report, with debt-to-GDP ratios in some cases rising significantly," the ECB said.

While Bulgaria joined the currency bloc at ​the start of the year, the five prospective members --the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, ​Romania and Sweden -- all appear many years away from membership.

Hungary's new government promised to meet key conditions, ‌commonly ⁠known as the Maastricht criteria, by 2030 but the country is among the furthest away.

It has the highest debt and interest rate level among the five, while its budget deficit, inflation rate and its currency's volatility level are all outside ​reference values.

In addition, its ​central bank law ⁠does not comply with requirements and it needs to improve the rule of law and tackle corruption, the ECB's report ​said.

"Further improving the quality of public institutions and ensuring that ​they are ⁠free from undue political interference, fighting corruption, implementing adequate product market policies and safeguarding the rule of law, are prerequisites for private sector-led economic growth," the ECB said ⁠of ​Hungary.

Hungary also faces structural challenges related to ageing ​as well as emerging skill mismatches in the labour market, the ECB added.

MIDAS Financing, a non-bank financial institution (NBFI), plans to sell three commercial properties at prevailing market prices, subject to approval from shareholders and regulators.

According to a disclosure to the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) yesterday, the decision was taken at a board meeting on August 27. The properties include commercial floor space on the second floor, along with eight car parking spaces, at Nahar Green Summit in Dhanmondi.

Another property comprises commercial floor space on the first floor, along with one car parking space, at Excel SM Tower in East Nasirabad, Chattogram.

The third property comprises commercial floor space on the third floor, along with one car parking space, at Jamil Shopping Center in Bogura.

The asset sale comes as the company faces a liquidity crunch amid a rise in classified and non-performing loans, said Tanvir Hasan, company secretary of MIDAS Financing PLC.

“Some of our good borrowers also failed to repay their loans,” he said.

There has also been some demand from depositors to withdraw their deposits, he said, adding that the company has a large fixed-asset base and the board wants to revive its financial position by selling some of its assets. Shares of MIDAS Financing rose 1.79 percent to Tk 5.70 on the DSE yesterday.

The NBFI reported a loss of Tk 89.30 crore in the first six months of 2026, sharply higher than the Tk 46.88 crore loss recorded in the same period a year earlier, according to its financial statements.