News

EV investments spark on budget perks
15 Jul 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Bangladesh's electric vehicle (EV) industry is poised to enter a new growth phase, with around Tk4,000 crore in private investments announced over the past few years expected to gather pace following incentives unveiled in the FY2026-27 budget.

From automotive manufacturers and industrial conglomerates to energy companies and filling station operators, private investors are positioning themselves for what they believe could become Bangladesh's next major manufacturing and infrastructure industry.

Industry leaders, however, say the sector's biggest challenge has shifted to ensuring reliable electricity, faster grid connections, and commercially viable charging stations.

The budget has changed the investment equation significantly, several industry leaders told The Business Standard. They added that charging stations remain a long-term business that requires policy support, quality electricity and patience.

The FY27 budget reduced import duties on EVs, introduced tax incentives for local EV manufacturing, exempted duties on charging equipment, and proposed fiscal incentives for charging station operators. The draft EV Industry Development Policy has also proposed a 10-year income tax exemption for charging station businesses.

The government has also set a target of establishing 1,200 commercial EV charging stations by 2030, with the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (Sreda) tasked with preparing the regulatory framework and implementation guidelines.

Md Aminur Rahman, director of Sreda, said they have received a large number of applications for commercial charging stations. "We are approving applications phase by phase after technical inspections," he told TBS.

Tk4,000cr investment in pipeline

Industry insiders estimate that more than Tk4,000 crore in investments are now in the pipeline, spanning the manufacture and assembly of electric cars, motorcycles and scooters, as well as the development of charging infrastructure.

The Bangladesh Auto Industries Limited has announced the largest investment so far, committing Tk1,500 crore to establish an EV manufacturing facility in Mirsarai while simultaneously developing charging infrastructure.

Nasir Group and Akij Motors have each unveiled Tk500 crore investment plans, while Rancon Motors has committed Tk300 crore for EV assembly and charging stations.

Runner Automobiles, in partnership with EV giant BYD, is implementing a phased Tk260 crore investment to locally manufacture electric vehicles alongside charging infrastructure.

PRAN-RFL and Walton Group have each earmarked around Tk200 crore for electric mobility projects, primarily electric scooters and related infrastructure.

Several other companies, including TMSS, Progress Motors, Sena Hotel (Radisson Blu), Kazi LPG, Good Luck Filling Station, and Isha Kha Group, have either secured approval or are preparing investments in commercial charging stations.

According to Sreda, 32 commercial charging stations have received approval, but only nine are currently operational, including in Dhaka, Chattogram, Cox's Bazar, and Cumilla. Besides, thousands of home charging units have already been installed alongside newly sold EVs.

By comparison, India has 29,151 public EV charging stations, Nepal has around 400, while more than 100 stations have been licensed in Pakistan, according to available official data from the respective countries.

Sreda Director Aminur said commercial DC charging stations have already been approved for Rancon Motors and Progress Motors in Dhaka, Kazi LPG and Sena Hotel in Chattogram, TMSS along the Bogura-Rajshahi corridor and Good Luck Filling Station in Rajshahi.

"We have comprehensive guidelines covering land requirements, location, equipment quality, investment size and electricity quality," he said.

Meanwhile, the government is set to introduce 400 electric buses in Dhaka, aimed at reducing air pollution and modernising the capital's public transport system.

Transport experts have welcomed the initiative, but said the project's success will depend on developing adequate charging infrastructure, and maintenance facilities.

Power reliability, profitability remains biggest hurdles

Hafizur Rahman Khan, chairman of Runner Automobiles, said every BYD vehicle sold by the company is supplied with a home charger that can operate using a standard household electricity connection.

"Commercial charging stations are a different story," he said. "They require high-quality, uninterrupted power supply, and that remains our biggest concern."

He explained that home charging typically takes between 5-10 hours, whereas highway charging must be completed within 5-10 minutes using ultra-fast DC charging technology.

"BYD already has that technology. But Bangladesh currently lacks both the quality electricity supply and the supporting infrastructure needed to deploy it on a large scale," he said.

Establishing a conventional commercial DC fast-charging station requires an investment of around Tk1-Tk1.5 crore, while an ultra-fast charging station, including land acquisition and dedicated substations, could cost between Tk3-Tk5 crore, he said.

"After making such a large investment, operators will need years to attract enough customers to generate acceptable returns," Hafizur added.

Shahriar Hasan Utsho, co-founder of Crack Platoon Charging Solutions, said they are currently assisting dozens of businesses in establishing charging stations and obtaining regulatory approvals.

"There is strong investor interest, but everyone asks the same question: When will we recover our investment?" he said. "A DC charging station costs around Tk1-Tk1.5 crore, yet the number of EVs remains limited. No one can estimate how long it will take to break even."

He cited the example of a privately operated charging station in Bogura that sometimes goes an entire day without serving a single vehicle. "The staff remain idle because there simply are not enough EVs on the road yet," he said.

The manager of one charging station said his company invested nearly Tk70 lakh to install a 10-kW Level-2 charger, but customer numbers remain low. "This is still a new business in Bangladesh. We hope demand will gather momentum."

Sreda's Aminur acknowledged that deploying ultra-fast charging infrastructure nationwide would take time. "Given Bangladesh's current power system, we are prioritising DC fast-charging stations based on an energy-efficient model.

He said Sreda's immediate focus is to ensure uninterrupted electricity supply, and it arranges dedicated power support for charging stations depending on location and demand. Sreda is also focusing on introducing solar-based charging stations, he added.

Runner Chairman Hafizur Rahman Khan argued that private investors alone cannot build a nationwide charging network during the market's early stage.

"This business is still at a nascent stage. Initially, the government needs to take the lead by investing in charging infrastructure or providing financial support. Once the market matures and vehicle numbers increase, private investment will naturally follow," he said.

Companies build entire EV ecosystem

Runner Automobiles has established branded charging points in Dhaka, Cumilla, Chattogram, Bogura and Cox's Bazar for BYD customers while expanding technician training. The company said it has already sold more than 1,000 BYD vehicles in Bangladesh.

Samiul Hasan, chief marketing officer of Nasir Group, said, "We are investing across the entire ecosystem vehicle manufacturing as well as charging stations because we believe the market will expand significantly."

Mir Masudul Karim, managing director of Bangladesh Auto Industries, said the company's locally manufactured EVs will offer a driving range of more than 450km on a full charge and support fast charging in 30 minutes.

"We are supporting both home charging and commercial charging infrastructure alongside vehicle production," he said.

Sheetal Taslim, country lead for marketing and operations at Audi Bangladesh and Ekhon Charge, said the company has installed 150 home charging units and established five commercial charging stations across the country.

She said Ekhon Charge, Bangladesh's first and largest EV charging solutions provider, has the capability to support the establishment of charging stations anywhere in the country.

Execution now matters

A full highway charge typically costs between Tk308 and Tk759, making electric driving roughly 70% cheaper per kilometre than petrol-powered vehicles.

However, industry leaders said the next phase of Bangladesh's EV transition will depend less on investment announcements and more on execution.

According to Taskeen Ahmed, president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI), around 6 million battery-powered three-wheelers already operate across Bangladesh, while only a few thousand electric passenger vehicles are officially registered.

"The actual number of EVs is much higher than official records. Without reliable data, planning and policymaking become difficult," he said.

He said charging infrastructures, reliable power, common technical standards, and an investment-friendly policy are essential to accelerating EV adoption.

Mohammad Wahid Hossain, chairman of the Bangladesh Energy and Power Research Council, said uninterrupted electricity would ultimately determine the industry's success.

"If EV adoption increases while electricity shortages persist, the sector cannot grow at the desired pace," he said, adding that Bangladesh also needs greater use of renewable energy and stronger coordination among government agencies.

Oil extends gains after latest US strikes, tech suffers more losses
15 Jul 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

Oil prices jumped and stocks fell again Tuesday after fresh US strikes against Iran that marked a new escalation in hostilities that has fuelled fears over their already fragile truce and the chances of another spike in inflation.Tech firms were once again in the crosshairs, with South Korea's Kospi extending a painful selloff as chip titan SK hynix continued to be routed amid growing fears about the AI boom.
The latest attacks came after Iranian forces struck a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz -- through which a fifth of global oil passes -- early Sunday, before announcing the closure of the waterway.That led to a series of US strikes on sites in the Islamic republic, which replied by hitting targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Oman.Before the latest US attacks, President Donald Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt on Monday that "we're going to hit them very hard tonight, and we're going to hit them hard tomorrow".

He later declared on Truth Social that the United States would be "known as 'THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT'" and levy a 20 percent fee on all cargo shipped through the waterway.

While Iran's ports would again be blockaded, Trump said "all other countries will have fair and open use of the strait".However, he also said a deal with Tehran to end the crisis was still possible."Yeah, I think a deal is possible. Sure, I do," he told reporters in the Oval Office. "We had a deal with them two days ago and then they said 'Oh we can't make that deal. We have to negotiate it further.'"Oil prices shot up more than nine percent Monday over fears of renewed conflict and the possibility that a fresh surge in inflation could force the Federal Reserve and other central banks to hike interest rates soon.And they continued to rise Tuesday, piling on more than one percent."With Trump, one never quite knows how seriously to take such pronouncements, but Gulf allies would not be pleased with this plan, and it almost certainly violates international law," said BNZ's Jason Wong.

"The 20 percent levy would add about $16 to the cost of every barrel of oil passing through the strait on a typical supertanker.

"It remains to be seen whether the plan will stick -- probably not -- and whether it is merely a negotiating tactic aimed at getting Iran to pause its military strikes on shipping in the area."

The renewed hostilities once again dragged on equities, compounding the flight from tech firms that has characterised markets in recent weeks as traders worry that the sector's AI-led rally has gone too far.

Seoul again suffered heavy selling, with SK hynix shedding more than three percent, the day after a 15 percent collapse. Its New York-listed shares -- which soared more than 13 percent on their debut Friday -- plunged more than nine percent Monday.

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, Taipei, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta were also sharply down.

The losses came at the start of a big week for traders, with earnings season about to kick off, Fed boss Kevin Warsh due to testify in Congress and US inflation data set to be released.

Meanwhile, Fed governor Christopher Waller stoked concerns over an early interest rate hike as inflation continues to remain elevated.

"If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the (rate-setting committee) will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term," he said Monday.

21 junk stocks dodge DSE axe, trade at premium
15 Jul 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

They are the stock market’s dividend-free club.

The 21 listed companies have not paid shareholders any dividend for at least five years. Most have shut their factories, while others are burdened by constant losses.


Under stock exchange rules, these companies should already have been delisted. Market analysts say keeping them on the market is an anomaly by almost any international standard.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) also acknowledges it has allowed the problem to persist for too long. The DSE says it is now reviewing the companies one by one before deciding on the next steps.

Even as the market considers action against these junk stocks, investors continue to trade them. And some are changing hands at prices higher than those of some of the country’s strongest listed companies.

According to DSE data, shareholders have invested Tk 2,286 crore in paid-up capital across the 21 companies. Paid-up capital represents the equity shareholders have committed through initial public offerings and subsequent share issues, including stock dividends.

In return, investors have received nothing from what has effectively become dead capital. In some cases, they have gone without any return for nearly a decade, as 15 of the 21 companies have paid neither cash nor stock dividends since 2016.

The companies are Bangladesh Services, Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC), Fareast Finance and Investment (FFIL), Hami Industries, ICB Islamic Bank, Jute Spinners, Meghna Condensed Milk Industries, Meghna Pet Industries, Mithun Knitting and Dyeing, People’s Leasing and Financial Services, Savar Refractories, Shyampur Sugar Mills, Tallu Spinning Mills, Tung Hai Knitting & Dyeing, and Zeal Bangla Sugar Mills.

The remaining six companies issued a single stock dividend at some point during the past decade but have paid neither cash nor stock dividends in the past five years.

They are Appollo Ispat Complex, Delta Spinners, Familytex BD, International Leasing and Financial Services, Ring Shine Textiles, and Usmania Glass Sheet Factory.

Under the listing regulations, a listed security may be delisted if the issuer fails to declare a cash or stock dividend for five years from the date of its last dividend or from the date of listing.

Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA), said most people who buy these shares either do so without fully understanding what they are investing in or knowingly take the risk in the hope of making short-term profits.

“Market manipulators target these stocks because they belong to companies with relatively small paid-up capital. They create manipulative traps to lure inexperienced investors into buying them,” he said.

Saiful added that every market has a group of day traders who treat the stock market like a casino, chasing these gambling-type stocks.

On the impact of keeping such companies listed, the DBA president said, “Most of these are virtually non-existent companies. They will not be able to generate returns over the long term. Instead, they create noise in the market and undermine the overall ecosystem.”

“The number of such companies is increasing day by day. When investors in these companies incur losses, the ripple effects spread across the entire market.”

“Moreover, if the share price of these companies exceeds that of fundamentally sound companies, what kind of image does that create about the market?”

Saiful said such companies should be removed from the market. “Listing and delisting should proceed in parallel in the stock market.”

DSE Managing Director Nuzhat Anwar acknowledged that the exchange had allowed the problem to persist for too long.

“Decisions regarding many of these companies should have been taken much earlier, but they were not,” she said. “As a result, the problems have accumulated over a long period and reached their current state.”

“We are currently reviewing the matter,” she added.

The exchange said it is reviewing the companies individually, holding discussions before submitting its findings to the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC).

“We intend to clean up the situation,” Nuzhat said. “However, we want to ensure that any action we take is justified, which is why we are proceeding carefully and taking the necessary time.”

She said the DSE has recently suspended trading in several companies whose factories were closed but whose share prices continued to rise. In some cases, the companies themselves said there was no valid reason for the increase.

“Halting trading sends investors a signal that something is wrong,” she said.

“At the same time, we are working to bring more quality companies to the market so that investors have better investment opportunities and a wider range of sound investment options,” she added.

Apart from the 21 companies, another 13 appear to have found a way to remain listed. Each paid a token dividend of between 0.1 percent and 2 percent on a single occasion, apparently enough to stay within the five-year requirement.

Speaking at a public event last week, Masud Khan, the newly appointed chairman of the BSEC, said Bangladesh is an outlier in the way it manages its capital market.

“Most stock markets do not keep non-operational companies listed indefinitely, but Bangladesh does, leaving retail investors exposed to risks they may not fully understand,” he said.

The responsibility rests with the stock exchange as the primary regulator, said Masud, and the DSE is now trying to establish a more rational and transparent process.

Under the proposed approach, he said inactive companies could be given a fixed period, such as one year, to resume operations before facing further action.

The BSEC chairman also urged investors to be cautious about companies that are non-operational, are no longer going concerns, fail to hold annual general meetings or do not pay dividends.

Meanwhile, a senior DSE official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the exchange had tried several times to delist these companies but backed down each time for fear of protests from investors.

Stocks extend rally as confidence grows on reform hopes
15 Jul 2026;
Source: The Financial Express

Stocks opened higher on Tuesday, extending the previous session's gains as growing investor confidence, driven by recent regulatory reforms and supportive fiscal measures, outweighed concerns over the possibility of renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

By 11:10 am, the benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) had advanced 26 points, or 0.43 per cent, to 5,892, supported by strong buying in large-cap and fundamentally strong stocks.

Market operators said investor sentiment has continued to strengthen following the passage of the Finance Bill 2026, which introduced a range of incentives aimed at revitalising the country's capital market. They also noted that recent reform initiatives announced by the securities regulator have reinforced expectations of a more efficient and transparent market.

Analysts said the budgetary measures are expected to make equity investments more attractive, encourage greater participation from both retail and institutional investors, strengthen the mutual fund industry, and enable companies to raise long-term funds more efficiently through the capital market.

Trading activity also remained buoyant. Turnover on the premier bourse reached Tk 4.84 billion within the first one hour and 10 minutes of trading, reflecting sustained buying interest across major sectors.

Market breadth was broadly positive, with 238 issues advancing, 80 declining and 69 remaining unchanged by 11:10 am, indicating widespread gains.
The Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) also witnessed a positive trend. Its benchmark CASPI index rose 18 points to 15,729, while the CSCX index gained 12 points to 9,646 in early trading.

BSEC approves intraday trading
15 Jul 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has approved the introduction of intraday trading, in a move aimed at modernising the capital market and improving trading efficiency.

Intraday trading allows investors to buy and sell stocks within the same day, aiming to capitalise on short-term price movements and market volatility.

The decision was taken at the regulator’s commission meeting held yesterday, chaired by BSEC Chairman Masud Khan, according to a press release.

The commission approved the necessary arrangements to introduce the system, subject to completing required preparations before launch, it said.

Stock brokers had recently demanded the facility, prompting the BSEC chairman to announce at an event that it could initially be introduced for a select group of fundamentally strong stocks.

The regulator said the move is intended to make the stock trading system more dynamic, efficient and modern.

Meanwhile, the commission also approved, in principle, amendments to the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Margin) Rules, 2025. The detailed amendment will be published on the commission’s website for public feedback.

Separately, BSEC approved Royal Footwear PLC’s proposal to raise Tk 12 crore through an Initial Qualified Investor Offer (IQIO), issuing 1.2 crore ordinary shares at Tk 10 each to qualified investors.

Royal Footwear is a fully export-oriented manufacturer that supplies footwear to several countries, including the US brand ROSS. Proceeds will go toward repaying bank loans, improving its working environment, purchasing machinery, and meeting IPO-related expenses.

According to the company’s audited financials as of December 31, 2025, its net asset value per share stood at Tk 27.54 with revaluation, and half-year earnings per share stood at Tk 0.82.

Prime Bank Investment PLC is the issue manager, with Prime Bank Investment PLC and EC Securities Limited acting as underwriters.

The commission approved the proposal submitted by Bangladesh General Insurance Company, trustee of Vanguard AML BD Finance Mutual Fund One, to redeem the fund as its tenure expires.

Vanguard Asset Management Limited is the asset manager of the fund; its total unit capital fund is Tk 104.32 crore, with a face value of Tk 10 per unit.

Deutsche Bank pays $1.3m penalty for Australian trade reporting failures
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Deutsche Bank has paid an A$2 million ($1.3 million) penalty for misreporting more than 260,000 over-the-counter (OTC) derivative transactions, Australia's securities regulator said on Monday.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) issued the infringement notice after finding that the German bank failed to accurately report the 'direction' field data across foreign exchange and commodities transactions between 21 October 2024 and 15 August 2025.

ASIC considers the direction data reporting failures were systemic and reflected deficiencies in Deutsche Bank's internal reporting framework.

Deutsche Bank has cooperated with the investigation and is implementing measures to prevent further reporting errors, the watchdog said.

Deutsche Bank declined a Reuters request for comment.

6 merchant banks face licence cancellation over capital deficiency, inactivity
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Financial Express

In a major regulatory crackdown, the stock market watchdog has initiated the process of cancelling the licences of six more merchant banks over allegations of prolonged inactivity and capital deficiency.
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The move was triggered by preliminary findings that some of the institutions had long failed to meet minimum capital requirements, while the others faced accusations of persistent regulatory non-compliance and prolonged operational inactivity.

The merchant banks facing licence cancellation are FAS Capital Management, Imperial Capital, NDB Capital, Riverstone Capital, HAL Capital and Roots Investment.

"Our preliminary investigation uncovered serious irregularities," said Md. Abul Kalam, executive director and spokesperson of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC).Bangladesh Investment Guide

The commission has now ordered detailed, case-by-case investigations into the operational and financial conditions of the merchant banks before taking a final decision. The affected merchant banks will also be given an opportunity to explain their positions and defend themselves as part of the regulatory process.

Officials said investigators would examine why the firms had failed to restore their capital positions despite repeated regulatory warnings and whether there were any governance failures, negligence or violations of securities laws.

Under the Securities and Exchange Commission (Merchant Banker and Portfolio Manager) Rules, 1996, a full-fledged merchant bank must maintain a minimum paid-up capital of Tk 250 million. In addition, its continuous net assets must not fall below 50 per cent of the paid-up capital to ensure financial soundness and investor protection.

The commission also ordered separate investigations into UniCap Investments and GSP Investments over their failure to maintain the required net capital. At the same time, BRAC EPL Investments has been asked to explain why its net capital fell below the regulatory threshold.

The Market Intelligence and Investigation Division has been directed to conduct comprehensive investigations into UniCap Investments and GSP Investments, focusing on the reasons behind their capital erosion, their overall financial health, compliance with securities laws and any governance lapses.

"If investigators find evidence of irregularities, negligence or violations of securities laws, legal action will be taken against those responsible," Mr Kalam said.

The latest move is one of the toughest enforcement actions against merchant banks in recent years, reflecting the new BSEC commission's determination to strengthen market discipline, improve governance and ensure that licensed intermediaries remain financially capable of protecting investors' interests.

IMF agrees with proposed framework for new programme: Finance Minister
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Financial Express

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury on Monday said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has acknowledged the government’s financial reform efforts and respected its political responsibility towards protecting public welfare as both sides discussed the framework for a new IMF-supported programme.
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Speaking to reporters after a meeting with IMF Mission Chief for Bangladesh and Hong Kong, Ivo Krznar, at the Finance Ministry, the minister said the discussions focused on the foundation, sequencing and overall policy direction of a future programme rather than detailed conditions.

“The basis on which the new IMF programme will be structured has been clarified, and the IMF has agreed with the proposed framework,” the finance minister said.

He said the reforms would be implemented gradually, taking into account Bangladesh’s economic realities and maintaining continuity in the ongoing reform agenda.

“Major changes cannot be introduced overnight. The IMF also agrees that reforms should be sequenced in line with the country’s economic situation and priorities,” he said.

Both sides agreed that reforms should be carried out step by step based on national priorities instead of following a rigid timeline, he said.

Amir Khosru also said the IMF has shown respect for the responsibilities of a democratically elected political government in safeguarding public welfare while pursuing economic reforms.

“The country’s economic decisions will be taken by protecting the interests of the people,” he said.

The finance minister said the IMF delegation expressed satisfaction over the progress made during the current government’s first four months, particularly in financial sector reforms, the development of the capital market and revenue collection.

He claimed that the IMF recognised the government’s tax collection performance during the four-month period as a significant achievement and held positive discussions on proposals to further raise Bangladesh’s tax-to-GDP ratio.

On the issue of subsidies, the minister said no detailed discussions has yet taken place regarding specific conditions or policy measures.

“We have only discussed the basic framework of the new programme. Detailed issues, including subsidies, will be taken up during subsequent negotiations,” he said.

Khosru said the negotiations would continue over the coming months, with the next round of discussions expected to take place on the sidelines of the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings in September or October.

He expressed optimism that the government’s reform-oriented performance would provide a solid foundation for finalising a new IMF programme.

LDCs urge global action on finance, debt, climate, trade, technology
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Financial Express

The Group of Least-Developed Countries has urged the international community to take urgent action on five priority areas-concessional finance, debt relief, climate finance, market access and technology transfer-to help the world's poorest nations achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and ensure smooth LDC graduation.
Presenting the LDC Group's priorities at the High-Level Segment of the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) General Debate in New York on Monday, Bangladesh Prime Minister's Finance and Planning Adviser, Dr Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, warned that mounting debt burdens, climate shocks, shrinking fiscal space and declining development assistance are putting sustainable development at risk.

Speaking on behalf of the 44-member LDC Group, Dr Titumir said progress towards the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development remained "alarmingly off track", with LDCs facing the greatest challenges.

As the group's first priority, he calls for a significant increase in predictable, affordable concessional financing to address mounting debt vulnerabilities and boost investment in education, healthcare, productive capacity, resilient infrastructure, job creation, poverty reduction, social protection and essential services.

Second, he urges reforms to the international financial architecture to better reflect the structural vulnerabilities of LDCs through expanded access to concessional resources, debt-suspension mechanisms, sustainable debt solutions and more equitable financing arrangements.

Third, he stresses that climate finance must be predictable, accessible and commensurate with countries' vulnerabilities, while calling for greater support for adaptation, resilience-building, energy transition and the Loss and Damage Fund, alongside increased investment in clean energy and resilient infrastructure.

Fourth, the LDC Group calls on the international community to preserve and expand market access for LDC exports by reversing protectionist measures and ensuring transparent, simplified and development-friendly rules of origin.

Fifth, Dr Titumir underscores the need for stronger international cooperation to bridge digital and technological divides through enhanced technology transfer, capacity-building and digital transformation.

He reaffirms the group's commitment to implementing the 2030 Agenda and the Doha Programme of Action (DPoA), describing them as the key frameworks for advancing sustainable development and ensuring smooth graduation from LDC status.

The adviser has said persistent structural vulnerabilities, worsening climate change, widening digital divides and limited access to affordable finance continue to hamper development efforts across LDCs, threatening the DPoA's goal of enabling more countries to achieve sustainable and irreversible graduation by 2031. He notes that 14 LDCs are currently at different stages of the graduation process and continue to require sustained international support.

Bangladesh and Nepal, he mentions, have sought a three-year extension of their preparatory period for graduation until November 2029 due to unprecedented political, macroeconomic, environmental and external shocks.

Describing next year's Mid-Term Review of the Doha Programme of Action in Doha as a critical opportunity to accelerate implementation of global commitments, Dr Titumir urges heads of state and government, ministers, international financial institutions and development partners to ensure the meeting delivers "transformational and implementable outcomes".

"The LDC Group stands ready to work with all partners to ensure that the Mid-Term Review becomes a turning point, one that restores momentum, rebuilds trust and delivers on the promise of sustainable development, leaving no one behind."

Dhaka bourse halts trading for Daffodil Computers, Usmania Glass
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has suspended trading in the shares of two listed companies— Daffodil Computers and Usmania Glass Sheet Factory—after detecting abnormal price and volume spikes.

In separate disclosures issued at 10:56am, the bourse said trading in both stocks would remain suspended for the rest of the trading session due to unusual increases in share prices and trading volumes.

According to the DSE, shares trading halt for Usmania Glass for second time as it had faced trading halt on 9 June, and resume on the next trading session.

Daffodil Computers' share price jumped 16% to Tk170.6 between 28 June and 9 July. The stock later fell to Tk160.8 on Sunday before rebounding to Tk163.8 on Monday prior to the trading suspension.

Meanwhile, Usmania Glass Sheet Factory's shares price surged abnormally in recent trading sessions, the DSE data showed. Its share price climbed from Tk37.3 on 22 June to Tk70.2 on 9 July.

After the earlier trading suspension, the stock slipped to Tk67.5 on 12 July but surged again yesterday to Tk74.2 each, making significant surge in a single trading session.

Due to this price surge, the premier bourse halted the company's trading.

Previously, DSE halted share trading Meghna PET Industries, Zeal Bangla Sugar Mills due to abnormal share price jumps.

Bourse officials told TBS that such trading halts are part of the exchange's efforts to curb market manipulation and protect investors from unusual price movements.

Govt targets 30% electric vehicles in road transport by 2030
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

The government has set a target of converting at least 30% of vehicles used in Bangladesh's road transport sector into electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030 as part of its efforts to reduce carbon emissions and promote sustainable transport.

Road Transport and Bridges MInister Shaikh Rabiul Alam disclosed the plan in parliament today (13 July) while responding to an urgent public importance notice raised by ruling party lawmaker Shawkat Ara Akter from the reserved women's seat-33.

He said the government is implementing a range of policy measures to shift public transport to environmentally friendly fuels, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build a sustainable transport system.

The minister noted that greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, particularly carbon dioxide, are a major contributor to global warming, making the transition from fossil fuel-powered vehicles to EVs increasingly important.

Under Bangladesh's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the country has pledged to unconditionally reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector by 3.4 million tonnes by 2030. The 30% EV conversion target forms part of that commitment, he said.

To support the transition, the Road Transport and Highways Division has already formulated policies governing the registration and operation of electric vehicles.

The government has also approved duty-free imports of fully electric buses for educational institutions, while imports of such buses for other uses will be subject to a reduced 15% duty to encourage wider adoption.

Addressing demands raised by lawmakers, Robiul said bridge tolls are a revenue matter under the Finance Division, meaning the Ministry of Road Transport and Bridges cannot unilaterally waive tolls.

He added that toll concessions for smaller bridges could be considered through policy decisions in consultation with the Finance Division, but toll collection cannot be suspended solely based on requests or recommendations from individual lawmakers.

On calls to increase stoppages of intercity trains, the minister said existing policies are designed to preserve the fast-service nature of intercity rail.

Allowing trains to stop at every location would undermine their efficiency and defeat the purpose of rapid travel, he added.

Aamra Technologies recommends 0.25% dividend
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Aamra Technologies Limited has recommended a 0.25% cash dividend for general shareholders for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2025, despite reporting a sharp decline in financial performance.

According to a price-sensitive information (PSI) disclosure filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) today (13 July), .

The payout for general shareholders will amount to around Tk11.32 lakh, the company said.

Aamra Technologies said the date, time and venue of its Annual General Meeting (AGM), along with the record date, will be announced after receiving approval from the High Court.

The dividend recommendation comes amid worsening financial results. For FY25, the IT services company reported earnings per share (EPS) of negative Tk3.17.

Its net asset value (NAV) per share declined to Tk18.46 from Tk21.73, while net operating cash flow per share (NOCFPS) dropped to Tk0.70 from Tk4.21, indicating increased financial pressure and weaker operational performance.

The company was earlier downgraded to the 'Z' category from the 'B' category on 12 February after failing to distribute its approved 1% cash dividend for FY24 within the regulatory deadline of 30 days after its AGM.

Although Aamra submitted a dividend compliance report on 7 July, the DSE has not yet upgraded its category.

A senior company official attributed the financial setback to regulatory challenges. In May 2024, the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) restricted the company's bandwidth capacity as an internet gateway service provider over unresolved government revenue-sharing dues.

The restriction significantly affected the company's core operations, which were brought close to a standstill, the official said.

The company said it is working to resolve the issue with the BTRC, but the matter remains pending, affecting business continuity.

Aamra Technologies has been listed on the capital market since 2012, with an issue price of Tk24 per share.

Stocks end higher on optimism over market-friendly reforms
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Financial Express

Stocks ended higher on Monday, driven by renewed investor optimism following recent capital market-friendly fiscal measures and regulatory reforms.
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The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange gained 17 points, or 0.30 per cent, to close at 5,866.

Market operators said investor confidence has continued to improve following the passage of the Finance Bill 2026, which introduced a series of incentives aimed at revitalising the capital market.

The Finance Bill, recently passed by Parliament, reduced taxes on dividend income, removed the investment ceiling for claiming tax rebates on investments in mutual funds, and eased listing requirements for companies seeking to raise funds through the stock market.

Analysts said these measures are expected to enhance the attractiveness of equity investments, encourage greater participation by both retail and institutional investors, strengthen the mutual fund industry, and facilitate companies' access to long-term capital through the capital market.

The DS30 index, comprising leading blue-chip companies, increased 2.35 points to 2,203, while the DSES index, which tracks Shariah-based stocks, increased 4.32 points to 1,196.80.

Market participation reduced on Monday, with turnover on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) falling to Tk 14.19 billion from Tk 16.69 billion in the previous session.

Gainers outnumbered Losers on the DSE floor. Of the 394 issues traded, 181 closed higher and 165 ended lower, while 48 remained unchanged.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also ended higher, with its All Shares Price Index (CASPI) increasing 118.32 points to 15,711, while the Selective Categories Index (CSCX) increased 74.78 points to 9,635.

Rupali Bank gets BSEC approval for Tk680cr share issuance to govt
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Rupali Bank, the country's only listed state-owned commercial bank, has received final approval from the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) to issue shares worth nearly Tk680 crore to the government against its existing equity support.

According to a price-sensitive information (PSI) disclosure published on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) today (13 July), BSEC approved the bank's proposal to issue 45.33 crore ordinary shares to the Government of Bangladesh through a letter dated 12 July.

The shares will be issued at Tk15 each, including a Tk10 face value and a Tk5 premium, raising a total of Tk679.99 crore. The shares will be allotted to the Secretary of the Finance Division under the Ministry of Finance on behalf of the government.

The approval follows a decision by Rupali Bank's board on 30 June to issue the shares. The proposal will now be placed before shareholders at an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) scheduled for 27 August. The bank's Annual General Meeting (AGM) will also be held on the same day.

The government had provided Tk679.99 crore in equity support to Rupali Bank in phases through the Ministry of Finance. The amount was recorded as share money deposits in the bank's accounts.

Under a 2020 directive of the Financial Reporting Council (FRC), companies are required to convert such share money deposits into ordinary shares within a specified period. The proposed issuance is aimed at complying with that regulatory requirement.

Following the issuance, Rupali Bank's paid-up capital will increase from Tk487.93 crore to Tk941.26 crore, while the government's ownership in the bank is expected to rise from 90.19% to around 95%.

As the revised paid-up capital will exceed the bank's current authorised capital of Tk700 crore, Rupali Bank will also seek shareholder approval to increase its authorised capital to Tk2,500 crore.

The share issuance will not bring any fresh funds into the bank, as it only converts the government's previous equity support into paid-up capital. The funds have already been injected into the bank and reflected in its financial statements.

The development comes as Rupali Bank continues to face financial challenges. Due to its weak financial position, the bank did not declare any dividend for the 2025 financial year.

For the January-March quarter of 2026, the bank reported an operating loss of Tk84 crore and a net loss of Tk396 crore, resulting in a loss per share (EPS) of Tk8.12. As of 31 March 2026, its net asset value (NAV) per share stood at Tk27.05, while its shares closed at Tk17.10 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange today

Dollar hits Tk 123 in inter-bank trade
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

The US dollar has climbed to Tk 123 in the inter-bank market as stronger demand for foreign currency coincides with slower inflows of remittances and export earnings.

The weighted average inter-bank exchange rate stood at Tk 123 yesterday, up slightly from Tk 122.97 a day earlier, according to the latest Bangladesh Bank (BB) data.

Since the beginning of this month, the weighted average exchange rate has been hovering around Tk 123 per USD.

Banks are now trading the US dollar between Tk 122.70 and Tk 123.75.

For example, Eastern Bank sold dollars to importers at Tk 123.70 yesterday, while buying them from exporters and other sources at Tk 122.70. Prime Bank sold dollars at Tk 123.75 and bought them at Tk 122.75.

Bankers said the dollar has strengthened mainly because of mounting payment pressure in recent months.

They said remittance inflows have slowed after the two Eid months, creating a slight shortage of US dollars in the market.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director and chief executive officer of Mutual Trust Bank, told The Daily Star that the banking sector is facing payment pressure from government imports, especially fuel and fertilisers, which has pushed the dollar exchange rate slightly higher.

He said remittance inflows have also eased after Eid. Together, these factors have increased pressure on the foreign exchange market.

In June, Bangladeshi expatriates sent home $2.81 billion in remittances, down slightly from $2.82 billion in the same month last year, according to BB data.

The June figure was 18.17 percent lower than the previous month.

In May, remittance inflows reached $3.42 billion, up 15.34 percent from a year earlier, as Bangladeshis living abroad sent more money home ahead of Eid-ul-Azha.

Preferring anonymity, the treasury head of a private commercial bank told The Daily Star that banks came under pressure at the end of June to settle letters of credit (LCs) for government imports and debt servicing, increasing demand for US dollars.

He, however, argued that the central bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange market was not wise.

The central bank has stopped buying US dollars from the market as demand for the currency has increased. The BB has not purchased dollars since June 8.

Between July 2025 and June 2026, the BB bought $6.4 billion from the market as part of its effort to build reserves.

Lower import payments and the central bank purchases of foreign currency helped boost the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

As of July 9, gross foreign exchange reserves stood at $31.90 billion under the BPM6 calculation method, up from $24.44 billion a year earlier, according to BB data.

The inter-bank exchange rate has reached Tk 123 at a time when an International Monetary Fund (IMF) fact-finding mission is visiting Bangladesh to assess the feasibility of the government’s proposal for a loan package worth nearly $4.5 billion.

Berger affiliate to invest $13.7m in special economic zone
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

Jenson & Nicholson Packaging Ltd, an affiliate of Berger Paints Bangladesh, will invest $13.7 million in the National Special Economic Zone (NSEZ) under a land lease agreement signed with the Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (Beza) yesterday.

The company will set up its manufacturing facility on 6.34 acres of land and is expected to create around 600 jobs, according to a press release.

The plant will produce high-quality rigid plastic pails, industrial paint containers, food-grade packaging, metal packaging and other products to strengthen Berger Paints’ backward linkage.

Berger Paints had earlier been allocated 40 acres in the same economic zone, where commercial production is expected to begin within the next two months.

Speaking at the signing ceremony, Saleh Ahmed, executive member for investment development at Beza, said the investment reflects growing confidence among local investors in the country’s economic zones.

He said Beza is working to ensure faster and more investor-friendly services to help industries start operations quickly.

Rupali Chowdhury, director of Jenson & Nicholson Packaging and managing director of Berger Paints Bangladesh, said the investment would enhance the company’s production capacity while supporting environmentally friendly manufacturing, employment generation and the development of the paints industry’s backward linkage.

She also urged Beza to address gaps in utility services and policy issues to make the National Special Economic Zone a more attractive manufacturing hub.

Commodity supply under pressure amid non-stop rain
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

Incessant rain across the country over the past week, coupled with flooding in the southeast, is threatening to push up prices of food and other essential goods.

Businesses say the downpour has disrupted the entire supply chain, from loading and unloading vessels at Chattogram port to trading at major wholesale markets and transporting goods across the country.

The monsoon rains have also submerged large areas of farmland, damaging vegetables and other crops. Getting farm produce to major urban markets has become more difficult, with vegetable prices already rising in Dhaka.

Some dry food items, including flattened rice, puffed rice, vermicelli, biscuits, noodles and dates, have become more expensive as demand has surged because of flood relief campaigns.

Businesspeople say prices of most other food items are stable for now, but prolonged disruptions could trigger wider market volatility.

Bangladesh relies heavily on imports for essential commodities such as sugar, edible oil and wheat. These bulk goods are transferred from mother vessels to lighter ships, which then carry them across the country through inland waterways.

Over the past week, rough seas and heavy rain severely disrupted the transfer of cargo from larger ships to lighter vessels.

Only five to 10 lighter vessels loaded cargo from larger ships each day over the past week, compared with the usual daily average of 40 to 50, said Gazi Belayet Hossain, president of the Bangladesh Cargo Vessel Owners’ Association.

Loading and unloading resumed yesterday morning as sea conditions improved. However, Belayet said more than 400 lighter vessels were still waiting to load cargo as of yesterday, and it would take a few days for operations to return to normal.

Meanwhile, traders at major wholesale markets in Chattogram’s Khatunganj, Chaktai and Asadganj markets said daily trading had fallen sharply because buyers from nearby districts were unable to reach the markets.

“Business has slowed because wholesale buyers from different districts are unable to come to the market,” said Aminul Haque, a wholesaler at Khatunganj.

Demand for dry food, however, has risen. Prices of chira, muri and vermicelli have increased by Tk 3 to Tk 5 per kilogramme.

The wholesale price of a 25-kilogramme sack of standard-grade flattened rice has risen to Tk 1,300 from Tk 1,200 a week ago. Puffed rice now sells for Tk 65 to Tk 68 per kilogramme, up by Tk 2 to Tk 3, while a 30-kilogramme basket of loose vermicelli has increased to Tk 1,050 from

Tk 900. Prices of dates have also risen by Tk 20 to Tk 30 per kilogramme.

“We think this is a temporary increase driven by the floods,” Aminul told The Daily Star.

Heavy rain also disrupted the loading of essential goods onto trucks, while transport shortages made the situation worse.

As many as 408 unions across Chattogram division have been affected by flooding, waterlogging and landslides. Khagrachhari has been the worst-hit district, with around 73 percent of its area affected, followed by Chattogram at 50 percent and Cox’s Bazar at 49 percent.

Road links with Cox’s Bazar, Bandarban, Rangamati and Khagrachhari have been disrupted by waterlogging and landslides in hilly areas, making it difficult to transport goods to those districts, traders said.

Despite these disruptions, businesses in Chattogram said wholesale supplies of rice, lentils, sugar and edible oil are adequate. However, the market could become volatile if the rain and flooding continue.

Like Chattogram, wholesalers in Dhaka also reported supply disruptions.

Mostafa Kamal, a vegetable wholesaler at Karwan Bazar, said supplies have fallen because of heavy rain and flooding, pushing wholesale prices up by about 10 percent compared with normal levels.

He said persistent rain has disrupted harvesting and transport, making it difficult for farmers to send produce to market.

Abu Bakar Siddique, a grocery trader at Karwan Bazar, said flooding and waterlogging have disrupted supplies of edible oil, sugar and flour.

“For the last four to five days, companies have been unable to meet even half of the existing demand,” he said.

Although wholesale prices have risen only slightly, retail prices of some essential goods, especially dry food items, have increased because of higher transport costs and supply shortages, he added.

Meanwhile, some industrial groups said flooding and waterlogging have disrupted their supply chains, making it difficult to deliver products.

SM Mujibur Rahman, head of accounts of Meghna Group of Industries, said the company usually delivers 280 to 300 tonnes of goods a day but managed only around 50 to 60 tonnes daily over the past week.

Mujibur said the situation has worsened after rainwater partially submerged the company’s depot premises in Chattogram. The company was unable to move vehicles from the depot for four days.

Md Shafiul Ather Taslim, director for finance and operation of TK Group, said the company had been struggling to secure enough transport over the past two to three days.

“When available, vehicles were unable to reach many areas due to a cut off supply network.”

He added that deliveries had been disrupted in several areas, including Rangamati, Khagrachhari, Bandarban, Cox’s Bazar, Satkania, Lohagara and parts of Sylhet city.

Taslim said the impact has not yet become significant because dealers still have enough stock available.

An emboldened India holds out for better terms in US trade talks
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

India rejected a quick trade agreement with the US in recent talks and is holding out for a better deal as Prime Minister Narendra Modi draws confidence from new trading partners, eased economic risks and political gains at home, officials and analysts said.

After months of talks, the two nations failed to finalise an interim trade agreement during US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's visit to New Delhi last month, despite expectations from both sides that a limited deal was within reach.

There was no consensus because Washington did not offer assurances on New Delhi's key demands: a tariff advantage over competitors such as China and no new US levies after the deal, said an Indian government official aware of the talks.

"Our position is clear - we don't intend to rush into a deal that is not on favourable terms or compromise on red lines like ceding ground on agriculture," the official said.

Washington had hoped for quick trade concessions from a strategic partner as President Donald Trump prepares new tariffs likely to come into effect later this month, officials and analysts said, while India's holdout risks higher levies on its exports and prolonged uncertainty for businesses.

A day after talks with Greer, Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said the US deal would not be implemented unless an advantage is ensured, indicating New Delhi's hardened position and lack of urgency despite the risk of higher tariffs.

Like most countries, the bulk of goods from India currently face a 10% US tariff. But the Trump administration is expected to introduce steeper tariffs later this month through probes into excess industrial capacity. India has denied US charges of surplus capacity.

Washington has already proposed new tariffs of up to 12.5% on dozens of nations, including India, over allegations they failed to curb trade in goods made with forced labour.

The US view has been that India needs to earn the preferential treatment on trade provisions it has sought by making its own concessions, a US source aware of the talks said.

The Indian official and the US source did not wish to be named as negotiations are confidential. The Indian trade ministry and the Office of the United States Trade Representative did not respond to emailed requests for comment.

A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Washington remained engaged with India and still expected an agreement, but did not offer a timeline.

The official however added India had at times been slow, bureaucratic and difficult in the negotiations, signalling that no quick deal was likely.

Asked about the impasse, White House spokesman Kush Desai said: "The Trump administration continues to productively engage with Indian officials to finalise a historic trade deal that puts Americans and America First."

India's exports tick up, economic risks ease

Rising exports, new trade deals with other countries and blocs and eased economic risks have strengthened India's hand, trade analysts said.

In April-June, India's overall goods exports rose about 15% from a year earlier despite disruptions from the war on Iran, buoyed by pricier petroleum shipments, officials said.

Exports to Gulf countries have recovered to pre-war levels, rising to $5.3 billion in May from $2.62 billion in March as traders shifted to alternative shipping routes, while exports to the United States edged up to $17.29 billion during April and May.

India is also broadening access to other developed markets, with a UK free trade pact set to take effect this month, and an EU agreement expected by early next year.

"Indian negotiators have gained some leverage in the talks, given its strong economy, diversification initiatives with other partners, and its strategic standing in the world," said Wendy Cutler, senior vice president at the Washington-based Asia Society Policy Institute, and a former US trade official.

The interim US-Iran peace deal improved India's economic outlook by easing oil prices, Goldman Sachs economist Santanu Sengupta said in a report.

The bank has raised its 2026 growth forecast for India to 6.8%, and lowered its inflation and current-account deficit estimates, suggesting New Delhi has more economic room to hold out for better terms.

A weaker rupee has also improved exporters' competitiveness.

Waiting out Washington

India is also calculating that some US trade measures could face legal or political setbacks, another Indian official said.

A group of 22 Democratic state attorneys general have already filed objections to the Trump administration's proposed tariffs from probes into forced labour.

Trade analysts said legal uncertainty over US tariffs, combined with Modi's recent state election victories, have helped India resist a rushed deal.

Senior leaders of Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party have argued publicly that trade agreements should protect Indian farmers and small businesses, two politically influential constituencies that New Delhi has long shielded in trade negotiations.

"India realises that delaying - or even abandoning - a rushed deal may be more prudent than locking into obligations whose costs could far exceed any temporary tariff relief," said Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, and a former trade negotiator.

China’s GDP growth set to slow
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

China’s economy likely slowed in the second quarter after a solid start to the year. Weak domestic demand offset the boost from resilient exports during a global oil shock, fueling expectations for fresh policy stimulus.

Beijing is grappling with a deepening supply-demand imbalance. Strong industrial output, buoyed by AI-driven exports, contrasts with weakening consumption and private investment amid a prolonged property downturn and volatile global oil prices.

Gross domestic product is forecast to have grown 4.5 percent year-on-year in April-June, cooling from 5.0 percent in the first quarter, a Reuters poll of 54 economists showed.

The projected pace would mark a fall from the 4.7 percent growth forecast in a Reuters poll in April. It would be at the lower end of the official full-year target of 4.5-5 percent.

Growth has become more uneven. Exports continue to support headline activity, but domestic demand has softened notably, analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.

Moreover, the boost from exports has not translated into a stronger labour market or meaningful profit improvement. This limits the pass-through from external demand to domestic growth.

China’s exports, due for release on Tuesday, likely grew at a slightly slower but still-solid pace in June. Firms accelerated shipments to the US ahead of potential new tariffs.

They also rode the AI boom. Additionally, companies competed aggressively on prices to win over cost-conscious consumers.

Investors are closely watching an expected late-July Politburo meeting for clues on fresh stimulus. This could shape policy for the rest of the year.

Analysts expect no aggressive action unless growth slows more sharply. This is given resilient exports and Beijing’s focus on curbing excess factory capacity to fight deflation.

GDP growth is projected to edge up to 4.6 percent in the third quarter. It is then expected to slow to 4.5 percent in the fourth, according to the poll.

For 2026 as a whole, China’s GDP growth is forecast to cool to 4.6 percent from 5.0 percent last year. It is projected to ease further to 4.4 percent in 2027.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to have expanded 0.9 percent in the second quarter. This marks a slowdown from 1.3 percent in January-March.

The government is due to release second-quarter GDP data on July 15. June retail sales, industrial production and investment data will come out at 0200 GMT.

Analysts expect China to lean on fiscal policy to cushion any further slowdown. The central bank has limited room for high-profile easing even after the retreat in oil prices.

The government is expected to speed up fiscal spending after a second-quarter slowdown. This followed front-loaded support early in the year.

Beijing has set a budget deficit of around 4 percent of GDP for 2026. It has also lined up heavy bond issuance to shore up growth.

China’s growth should pick up over the second half of this year as fiscal support ramps up, Capital Economics said in a note.

But domestic overcapacity will remain entrenched. This leaves China’s economy reliant on exports for growth.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect the central bank to keep its key policy rate unchanged for the rest of 2026. The seven-day reverse repo rate will remain steady.

They also expect the weighted average reserve requirement ratio to remain steady in the third quarter. A possible 20-basis-point cut is expected in the fourth.

The central bank has left policy rates and RRR unchanged since May 2025. It opted instead to use short-term liquidity operations to keep funding conditions supportive.

This comes while overhauling its monetary policy framework and strengthening policy transmission. Analysts estimate a 1.2 percent rise in consumer prices for this year.

This is below the government’s target of around 2 percent. Inflation is expected to steady at 1.2 percent in 2027.

Iran faces oil glut as China opts for cheaper rivals
14 Jul 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

Iranian oil supplies at sea are rising after Tehran ramped up exports during the interim peace deal with the US. However, sales have been slow.

China’s independent refiners have turned to cheaper crude from Iraq, the UAE and Qatar. The return of US sanctions this week risks leaving Tehran with more cargoes searching for buyers just as shipments arrive in Asia.

Independent Chinese refiners based in the eastern oil hub of Shandong, known as teapots, bought 16 million to 20.5 million barrels of crude from Qatar, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates in recent weeks, traders said.

This marked their largest purchases of non-sanctioned Middle Eastern oil since the conflict began. Shandong teapots account for the bulk of China’s purchases of Iranian crude. State refiners have largely avoided direct imports since 2018.

Separately, privately owned refiner Shenghong Petrochemical bought 12 million barrels of Iraqi, Abu Dhabi and Saudi crude. The wave of non-Iranian cargoes displaced demand for Iranian barrels as rival Middle Eastern producers rushed to resume exports.

This followed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in late June. The rush of non-Iranian shipments was sold on a delivered basis by European traders such as Mercuria and Vitol.

State majors including PetroChina International and Zhenhua Oil, and Gulf producer Abu Dhabi National Oil Company also took part. The sales were done at discounts of $5 to $8 a barrel to ICE Brent.

These deliveries are scheduled for August to September. Discounts for Iranian Light crude, however, were little changed at $2 to $3 a barrel to ICE Brent, according to several traders active in dealing with teapots.

This prompted two traders to describe the sellers as slow and stubborn. Ironically, Iranian oil becomes the most expensive, a senior trader remarked.

Traders said the week of funeral events that ended in the burial of the slain Supreme Leader also slowed sales. Offices were closed during the mourning period.

Traffic through the vital waterway has slowed again this week after tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran. Between June 15 and July 6, about 30 million barrels of Iranian oil were loaded.

This volume is equivalent to 1.35 million barrels per day, according to tanker tracker Vortexa Analytics. Kpler recorded an estimated 34.5 million barrels of Iranian crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz on 21 tankers. This transit occurred from June 14 through July 10. An estimated 60.7 million barrels, averaging 2.17 million barrels per day, were exported in February 2026.

This was an increase of 20 percent from January 2026, according to analysis from US advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran. That number dropped to 35.7 million barrels in March, averaging 1.136 million barrels per day.

Since the ceasefire deal announced June 14, 52 tankers have sailed with Iranian oil and petrochemicals products. They carried approximately 62 million barrels of Iranian crude oil and products, UANI analysis showed.

Of those vessels, 15 have reached the Singapore Strait. They are bound for the Eastern Outer Port Limits anchorage around Malaysia’s Johor area, according to UANI analysis.

Three Iranian-flagged very large crude carriers have already discharged their cargoes. Tehran shipped out no less than 10 million barrels of crude oil and fuel oil overnight, TankerTrackers.com said in a post.

They did this anticipating a possible imminent resumption of the US navy blockade. The US Central Command did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Traders expect Iranian oil sales to pick up next week. Independent refiners are expecting $4 to $5 discounts for August to September arriving cargoes.

China’s Iranian oil imports so far this month came at 556,000 bpd, Kpler data showed. This marks the lowest level recorded since January 2023.