India has hiked domestic cooking gas price by Rs 29 per cylinder, in the second increase in three months as state-owned fuel retailers continue to grapple with elevated global energy costs due to West Asia conflict.

The price of a 14.2-kg domestic cooking gas cylinder in Delhi will rise to Rs 942 from Rs 913 with effect from 7 June, Indian media reported today citing industry sources.

The latest increase follows a Rs 60-per-cylinder hike on 7 March after the conflict in West Asia disrupted global energy supplies and drove up international fuel prices.

Industry sources said the increase had only partly offset losses incurred on domestic LPG sales.

Petrol and diesel prices have been raised by a cumulative Rs 7.50 per litre since mid-May while compressed natural gas (CNG) rates were increased by around Rs 6 per kg.

Meanwhile, the Petroleum And Natural Gas Ministry said in a statement today recipients of subsidized cooking gas under a special scheme for women will receive Rs 300 a cylinder on the first four refills each year.

The effective cooking gas price under the subsidized scheme for women for the first four cylinders at Rs 642 is at a discount of about 60% to the actual international price of an LPG cylinder, it said.

The statement said cooking gas cylinders in India are cheaper than in any neighbouring country and far below the price in advanced economies such as the United States, Australia and Canada.

The cost of supplying a cylinder has risen to over Rs 1,600, an under-recovery of about Rs 700 on each domestic cylinder.

The prices of petroleum products in India are linked to the corresponding prices in the international market.

What the household does not bear the brunt of is the several hundred rupees a cylinder which the government is bearing.

As the West Asia conflict tightened the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and a large share of India's energy imports pass, most commercial traffic in the waterway was brought to a near halt.

About 54 per cent of India's LPG consumption was routed through the Strait, leaving the cooking-gas supply directly exposed to the disruption.

However, India was among the few that kept its energy cargoes moving. In fact, India brought out the largest number of energy-carrying without paying any toll.

Besides, sourcing was widened to suppliers across the world, including those that do not route through the Hormuz Strait, like the United States, Canada and Algeria and available LPG was directed to households and to priority users such as hospitals and educational institutions.

The ministry said measures were taken to secure supply through the disruption. On the supply side, domestic LPG production was raised by more than 60 per cent to offset the constrained imports.

With an upscale new budget coming in few days now, the government targets borrowing 8.0-percent higher from the banking sector and 20-percent bigger from savings schemes to finance deficit amid unpromising revenue-earning prospects, officials say.

According to Finance Division sources, in the next fiscal year, the government plans to borrow some Tk 1.12 trillion from banks compared to current year's budgetary target of Tk 1.04 trillion.

Data show that until May 10, the government had actually borrowed Tk 1.95 trillion from the banking sector to meet its needs.

Also, the government is targeting to borrow some Tk 150 billion from the national savings schemes to help finance the Tk 9.38-trillion largest-ever fiscal budget in Bangladesh.

In the outgoing fiscal year, the government had targeted borrowing Tk 125 billion from national savings schemes. However, due to selling pressure from the buyers, the government's net selling of savings instruments fell into negative territory by Tk 5.55 billion until February last.

Officials say that as the government is making a large-size budget without confirming adequate sources of earnings, it will have no option but to raise dependence on the banking sector to meet its financial needs.

In the next year's budget, the government is setting a target of collecting Tk 6.95 trillion as revenues, compared to its highest revenue collection in the recent past amounting to Tk 4.09 trillion.

The finance officials say the National Board of Revenue (NBR) alone is going to be given a target to collect Tk 6.04 trillion, higher by Tk 2.43 trillion than its previous records in revenue mobilisation.

So, they say, as revenue collection will fall short of its target and foreign fund flow is not promising in the coming year, government's net bank borrowings will mount in the next fiscal year, surpassing the target.

Dr Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, says it seems that "debt trap is now a matter of time" as the government is increasingly depending on loans instead of enhancing revenue earnings.

"The money the government is borrowing from the banks is being used for meeting its operational needs instead of using them in productive sectors," the economist notes.

Thus, he adds, the government's debt burden is increasing day by day.

Because, he says, the government will have to return the money with interest.

Mr Hussain also makes a point that high government borrowing from banking sector lessens fund flow for private-sector investment, thus lowering employment growth that ultimately impacts overall economic growth in the country.

OPEC+ is set to agree on Sunday a fourth increase in oil output targets in as many months, three OPEC+ sources said, even though the US war with Iran is still preventing several of the group's members from pumping more.

The war has cut oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz, creating the world's biggest ever supply crisis as key OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia have been unable to supply customers in full since the end of February. The crisis for OPEC+ deepened when the United Arab Emirates left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries after almost 60 years.

Seven core members of OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allied producers including Russia, have increased their output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 barrels per day.

In reality, the group's production has collapsed due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million bpd in April versus 42.77 million in February, according to OPEC figures.

On Sunday, the seven members will likely increase targets by about 188,000 bpd from July, the sources said. This is the same as the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases of 206,000 bpd in May and April to take into account the UAE exit.

All the sources spoke on condition of anonymity and said a final decision had not been made.

The seven of 21 OPEC+ members due to meet on Sunday are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman.

A full OPEC+ ministerial meeting is also scheduled for Sunday but is not expected to make any policy changes, the sources said.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is considering reducing the source tax on a range of non-core supply items – including packaging materials, office stationery, and administrative and marketing-related goods used in local industry and service sectors – from 5% to 4%. The advance income tax (AIT) levied at the import stage may also be trimmed by one percentage point.

A senior NBR official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the proposal has been shaped by business demands and is expected to feature in the upcoming budget. "This may reduce costs for businesses and, ultimately, help protect consumers from rising prices of goods and services."

The move follows remarks by NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan in March, when he signalled that source tax rates across sectors would be rationalised and aligned with firm and industry profitability to minimise refund complications.

Under the current framework, excess source tax deducted at the supply stage can be offset against future profits. In practice, however, many firms either fail to claim such adjustments or avoid doing so because of procedural complexity. The result: companies frequently pass on the burden through higher prices, while others underreport income to ease compliance pressure.

Business leaders and tax experts have broadly welcomed the proposal.

Debabrata Roy Chowdhury, Director of Nestlé Bangladesh, called it a positive development. "We deduct tax from our suppliers and deposit it. But at the current rate, suppliers need to earn more than 20% profit to absorb it, which is not realistic. They cannot adjust it, so they pass it on through higher prices," he told TBS.

Another entrepreneur noted that while compliant firms properly deduct and remit taxes, a significant portion of the market underreports income to sidestep the burden – a trend the higher rate has helped entrench. Chowdhury added that at the 5% rate, a substantial sum is withheld annually at the supply stage, squeezing cash flows across the chain.

Tax experts are calling for further refinement, suggesting that source tax rates be calibrated against corporate profitability based on financial statement analysis. They note that the rollout of the Document Verification System (DVS) has improved transparency, making such fine-tuning more feasible.

Snehasish Barua, managing director of SMAC Advisory Limited, backed the proposal, describing the cut as beneficial for both businesses and consumers. "Lowering the upfront tax on imports and supplies from 5% to 4% directly solves a major corporate headache: trapped cash flow," he said, adding that easing upfront tax pressure would improve liquidity, reduce transactional friction, and strengthen compliance.

On the question of fiscal impact, Barua acknowledged a likely short-term dip in revenue but argued that improved efficiency and stronger compliance would offset it over time. "With inflation squeezing everyday budgets, this policy acts as a shield against rising prices," he said.

Source tax collections currently account for more than 60% of the government's income tax revenue, though a detailed breakdown between local supply deductions and import-stage AIT is not publicly available.

According to NBR's 2022-23 financial statement, Tk15,728 crore was collected at the local supply stage and Tk11,866 crore at the import stage – a combined figure that experts say is substantially tied to the prevailing 5% rate.

Bangladesh’s point-to-point inflation rose to 9.42 per cent in May 2026, driven mainly by an increase in food prices, according to the latest data released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

The inflation rate was 9.04 per cent in April 2026 and 9.05 per cent in May last year.

Food inflation climbed to 9.06 per cent in May from 8.39 per cent in April. The rate was 8.59 per cent in May 2025.

Non-food inflation also increased slightly to 9.71 per cent in May from 9.57 per cent in the previous month. It was 9.42 per cent in the same month a year ago.

Meanwhile, the 12-month moving average inflation declined to 8.63 per cent during the July 2025-May 2026 period, compared to 10.13 per cent recorded in the corresponding period a year earlier.

The BBS data showed that inflation increased in both rural and urban areas in May.

In rural areas, the general inflation rate rose to 9.48 per cent in May from 9.05 per cent in April. Food inflation in rural areas stood at 8.95 per cent, while non-food inflation was 9.98 per cent.

In urban areas, the general inflation rate increased to 9.25 per cent in May from 9.02 per cent in April. Urban food inflation stood at 9.29 per cent and non-food inflation at 9.24 per cent.

The latest inflation data came at a time when consumers across the country continue to face pressure from elevated prices of essential commodities and household expenses.

Despite vast potential for expanding local or native chicken production, rural farmers are being deprived of fair prices due to weak market systems, disease outbreak, a shortage of quality chicks, and the dominance of middlemen.

Against this backdrop, stakeholders believe that establishing an integrated value chain from production to marketing, directly connecting farmers to markets, and ensuring fair pricing could transform the local chicken sector into one of the key drivers of Bangladesh's rural economy.

These views emerged at a national-level roundtable discussion titled "Building a resilient Native Chicken Economy in Bangladesh," held yesterday (7 June) at the TBS conference room in the capital.

The event, which was jointly organised by Heifer International Bangladesh and The Business Standard, attended by government officials, researchers, poultry sector entrepreneurs, development organisations, and farmer representatives.

Presenting the keynote paper, Dr Md Mufazzal Hossain noted that nearly half of the country's total poultry population consists of indigenous or native chickens, and around 70% of rural households raise them in some form. Even a modest improvement in the sector's productivity, he said, could make a significant contribution to national animal protein production.

He pointed out that native chickens have stronger disease resistance and can be raised at relatively low cost. However, major challenges remain-including Newcastle disease, a shortage of quality chicks, inbreeding, and weak market linkages. While rural farmers sell local or indigenous chickens at around Tk450 a kg, the price in urban markets reaches up to Tk600-700 per kg.

He also called for cooperative-based marketing systems, linkages with supermarkets, easy access to credit, and a dedicated government project for the development of native chicken.

Sharing her experience, Roshni Akter, a farmer representative from Baraigram, Natore, said her income from raising native chickens has grown significantly through training and technical support.

She stressed that without adequate nutrition, egg production drops and profitable farm management becomes difficult, and called for affordable quality feed and market support for the small farmers.

President of the Bangladesh Poultry Industries Central Council (BPICC) Md Moshiur Rahman emphasised that ensuring biosecurity and rapidly delivering domestically produced vaccines to the field level are essential for the sustainable development of the poultry sector, noting that demand for eggs and poultry meat is rising rapidly, and consumer interest in native chicken has also grown noticeably – supermarkets that once stocked it occasionally now maintain near-regular supplies. He also called for waste management to be included as a condition of farm registration.

Shoshi Ahmed, a faculty member at Rajshahi University, said there is significant potential to substantially increase native chicken production at the rural level. While most households currently raise an average of 10 chickens, proper management and modest investment could raise that number up to 70–100. She stressed the importance of regular vaccination for disease control and ensuring improved housing conditions. She also emphasised the need to develop cooperative-based value chains to ensure the commercialisation of the native chickens and fair pricing for the farmers.

In her welcome address, Country Director of Heifer International Bangladesh Nurun Nahar said that strong partnerships among the government, private sector, research institutions, and development organisations are essential for the sustainable development of the indigenous chicken sector.

She said the time has come to move beyond isolated projects and adopt long-term, nationally coordinated programmes, with equal importance given to increasing production, improving market systems, ensuring fair pricing, and food security – alongside biosecurity and hygiene standards at the market level. Through coordinated efforts and effective policies, she added, it is possible to build a sustainable and safe production system for the indigenous chicken sector.

Speaking as chief guest, Md. Shahzaman Khan, Director General of the Department of Livestock Services, reaffirmed the government's commitment to developing indigenous breeds and local livestock.

He noted that through research, improved indigenous chicken breeds capable of laying 140-170 eggs per year have been developed. Since 80–90% of farmers in Bangladesh are still at the marginal level, building their capacity and increasing their income remains critical.

He stated that ensuring four key elements – improved breeds, proper housing, balanced feed, and regular vaccination — would make indigenous chicken farming more profitable, and that the Department of Livestock Services aims to work with all stakeholders toward this goal.

Participants collectively emphasised the need for coordinated policy support, stronger extension services, and accessible quality chicks and vaccines, as well as the development of cooperative-based marketing systems — all of which, they agreed, would enable the indigenous chicken sector to play a vital role in rural employment, nutrition security, and economic development.

Bangladesh's stock market continued to surge today (7 June) as investors welcomed BSEC's new leadership, with turnover jumping 13% to 22-month high in the first trading session following the new appointment on hopes of long-awaited capital market reforms.

Masud Khan was appointed as chairman while three others were as commissioners at the BSEC on Thursday last following the resignation of the previous chairman and its four commissioners.

According to Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) data, the benchmark index DSEX closed 41 points higher, after opening with a stronger gain of 74 points.

While the turnover at the bourse surged to Tk1,529 crore marking the highest turnover since 11 August 2024. On 11 August at DSE, turnover was Tk2,010 crore, on that day DSEX surged 91 points, the data showed.

Meanwhile, majority stocks traded on the bourse saw price increase. Of the traded 393 stocks, 184 advanced, while 160 stocks declined and 49 stocks remained unchanged.

Despite increasing majority stocks, the market capitalization fell by Tk801 crore to Tk6.92 lakh crore due to price correction on some stocks.

The two other indices— DSES, the shariah index and DS30, the blue-chip index surged by 6.57 points and 19 points respectively to close at 1,115 and 2,087 points, the DSE data showed.

At the opening of the trading session, stocks surge amid buying pressure significantly pulling DSEC over 74 points in the first 12 minutes.

Later, as selling pressure became active on profit taking in some specific stocks, indices turned into red shading DSEX until 10.39am.

After that buying pressure became active on the trading floor that again pulled indices. Finally, the market ended on the green at the first trading session.

Akramul Alam, head of research at brokerage firm Royal Capital Ltd, said that a positive sentiment among investors has started to build following the assumption of office by the new commission. In particular, various positive signals from the commission regarding market reforms, increased transparency, and safeguarding investors' interests have helped restore an atmosphere of confidence in the market.

He said, "There had been a long-standing crisis of uncertainty and lack of confidence in the market. After the new commission took charge, investors are now hoping for effective initiatives to address various structural problems in the market. The positive assurances given by the commission have created new expectations among investors, the impact of which is also being reflected in trading activity and share prices."

Akramul Alam said that at the close of trading on Tuesday, share prices of several fundamentally strong companies had increased positively. This indicates that investors are gradually shifting away from rumor-driven or weak stocks towards quality companies.

He further said, "Following the continuous rise in the market over the past few sessions, some investors have attempted to book short-term profits, which is a normal market behavior. As a result, selling pressure was seen in some stocks, but this should not be viewed as a sign of market weakness. Rather, it is part of a healthy correction process."

According to him, after this profit-taking trend ends, there is a possibility of renewed buying pressure in the market. If investor confidence strengthens further and positive measures from the regulator continue, the upward trend in the market may broaden further.

He added, "In the current situation, both liquidity and investor participation in the market are increasing. If the positive policy signals and the momentum of confidence are sustained, the market may move into a stronger position in the days ahead."

Chairman-linked stocks led top gainer

Shares of companies linked to newly appointed BSEC Chairman Masud Khan surged on his first trading day in office, reflecting strong investor interest. Khan previously served as Group CEO of Crown Cement Group, whose sponsors also hold directorship positions in Premier Cement.

Crown Cement and Unilever Consumer Care, where Khan held key positions prior to joining at the BSEC, recorded gains during the session.

According to data, Crown Cement's share price increased 10% to Tk57.2, hitting the upper circuit breaker and triggering a trading halt. Premier Cement also rose 9.78% to Tk51.6 each.

Meanwhile, shares of Unilever Consumer Care increased 1.78% to Tk2,103 each, Khan earlier served as chairman and an independent director of Unilever Consumer Care.

Other gainers was Sonargaon Textile as its shares price surged 9.95% to Tk71.8 each, followed by Paramount Textile by 9.90% to Tk57.7 each, IPDC Finance by 9.84% to Tk21.2 each, Mercantile Insurance by 9.83% to Tk33.5 each.

Loss-making firms led loser list

Some loss-making companies, whose shares price abnormally surged in recent trading sessions, saw price declines amid selling-pressure today.

Meghna PET Industries, a non-performing firm since 2002, shares price fell 9.90% to Tk81.9 each. Its shares price surged significantly since March as its shares price was Tk23.6 each on 8 March. Since then, its share price gradually surged.

Another loss-making and closed company Meghna Condensed Milk's shares fell 9.82% to Tk42.2 each followed by Safko Spinning Mills by 9.21% to Tk20.7 each, SK Trims by 8.21% to Tk13.4 each, and Apex Spinning Mill by 7.94% to Tk290.8 each.

A special parliamentary committee has recommended expanding Bangladesh's strategic fuel reserves to ensure a minimum three-month storage capacity and diversifying import sources to strengthen the country's energy security.

The committee also made 12 recommendations to address the recent energy situation and prevent similar crises in the future.

It emphasised introducing comprehensive digital monitoring of the supply system, expanding the use of renewable energy, and accelerating the implementation of key infrastructure projects.

Power and Energy Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud presented the committee's report in parliament today (7 June).

The report also incorporated 10 recommendations submitted by opposition members.

The committee stressed the need to increase the use of LNG and renewable energy as alternative energy sources. It also recommended the swift implementation of the Dhaka-Chattogram pipeline, the Single Point Mooring (SPM) project and the second unit of Eastern Refinery (ERL-2).

In addition, the committee highlighted the importance of making rooftop solar installations mandatory and ensuring regular monitoring of their effectiveness. It also advised adopting necessary plans and effective measures to reduce system losses in electricity distribution.

According to the report, pressure on the country's fuel supply system has been created by rising international fuel prices, the war situation in the Middle East, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, instability in global supply chains, and domestic factors such as panic buying, illegal stockpiling and black-market activities. As a result, concerns and uncertainty have emerged among the transport, agriculture and industrial sectors, as well as the general public.

The committee recommended adopting an integrated plan for power generation from a variety of sources, including oil, gas, coal, solar and wind energy.

The report stated that a study should be conducted to determine whether opportunities can be created for private companies, alongside Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC), to import fuel products.

It also recommended strengthening public awareness campaigns to reduce irrational stockpiling and panic buying during periods of crisis.

According to the report, in the context of volatility in global energy markets and prevailing geopolitical realities, there is a pressing need to make the country's long-term energy policy, infrastructure and supply system more stable, diversified and technology-driven.

The special committee believes that the recent situation has created an important opportunity to reassess Bangladesh's energy security framework.

Opposition's 10 recommendations

The opposition proposed conducting demand assessments for power and energy through an independent committee of experts free from political influence.
According to them, realistic planning is needed to avoid exaggerated demand forecasts.

They also recommended maximising the utilisation of coal-fired power plants, increasing domestic gas production, undertaking new gas exploration both onshore and offshore, continuing crude oil exploration, and accelerating the implementation of the SPM and Eastern Refinery-2 projects.

The opposition's recommendations also included large-scale expansion of solar power, assessing the feasibility of micro-hydro projects in the hill regions, exploring the potential for river-flow-based power generation, and reducing the use of government vehicles during energy crises.

They further proposed research into the potential of hydrogen fuel technology, biogas and waste-to-energy generation. According to the opposition, it is essential to diversify the power and energy sector and reduce excessive dependence on any single energy source.

On 26 April, the 10-member special committee comprising parliament members from both the government and opposition was formed to review the country's energy security and determine future actions in the national interest.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has extended the deadline for businesses to enter previously submitted paper-based VAT returns into the electronic VAT (e-VAT) system until June 30, 2026, ahead of the planned introduction of mandatory online VAT return filing from July.

According to an NBR press release issued on Sunday, a new sub-module titled "Hard Copy Return Entry" has been incorporated into the e-VAT system to facilitate the digital entry and preservation of all monthly VAT returns that had earlier been submitted in hard copy form.

The revenue authority said it had issued a circular on January 5, 2026 outlining the procedures for using the sub-module and had initially set March 31, 2026 as the deadline for entering all paper returns into the online system.

However, data from the e-VAT platform indicate that a significant number of hard-copy returns have yet to be entered electronically.

As part of its preparations to make online VAT return submission compulsory from July 2026, the NBR has decided to grant businesses additional time until June 30 to complete the process.

The NBR warned that businesses failing to enter their paper returns into the e-VAT system within the revised deadline would face restrictions.

In such cases, their closing balances as of May 2026 would be frozen, meaning no adjustments could be made against those balances in the future.

The revenue authority also noted that all VAT returns must be available in the online system for refund applications to be processed. As a result, businesses that do not enter all their previous VAT returns into the e-VAT platform will not be eligible to submit refund claims.

The NBR urged taxpayers to cooperate fully with its ongoing efforts to digitise all revenue-related activities, saying the initiative is aimed at enhancing transparency and accountability in the country's tax administration system.

To expand the tax base, the government is set to make Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) mandatory for opening bank accounts. Existing account holders will also need a TIN to keep their accounts active.

However, exemptions may apply only to students, recipients of government allowances, and individuals or entities officially exempted through gazette notifications, according to sources at the National Board of Revenue (NBR).

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is expected to propose the measure in the upcoming budget.Currently, a large number of bank account holders do not have TINs. In such cases, higher source tax is applied on interest income, although obtaining a TIN has never been mandatory for banking access.Bankers warned that the requirements could reduce the number of bank accounts and slow transactions through formal channels. However, experts argue that linking banking activities with tax compliance would improve monitoring and reduce tax evasion.The NBR is also planning wider data integration with banks. Beyond banking data, it aims to link its systems with National ID (NID), utility services, sub-registry offices, and other government databases through an online platform.

In addition, the tax authority is considering several new measures to widen the tax net, including making TIN mandatory for registering motorcycles with engine capacity of 150cc or above, introducing a Withholders Registration Number (WIN) for entities deducting source tax, and imposing a 0.20% tax on retailers.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director of Mutual Trust Bank, told TBS that previous moves to make TIN mandatory for credit card holders had reduced uptake. A similar impact could be seen in banking transactions if account opening is tied to TIN requirements.

"There is already a degree of fear about the banking sector. The NBR should address these concerns before introducing further mandatory requirements," he said.

Bangladesh currently has around 17 crore bank accounts, although many individuals or institutions hold multiple accounts. The exact number of account holders remains unclear.

Tax expert and Managing Director of SMAC Advisory Limited Snehasish Barua said mandatory electronic TIN (e-TIN) requirements risk reversing financial inclusion in Bangladesh's cash-heavy economy.

He said such a barrier could push entrepreneurs away from formal banking, increase reliance on cash, ultimately affecting bank deposit growth and liquidity.

He added that instead of strict mandates, the state should first move towards a cashless ecosystem, allow digital disclosure of bank accounts in tax returns, and gradually integrate tax and banking systems within a defined timeframe.

"Full integration of national asset databases with tax returns would help curb evasion and expand the tax base," he added.

The country's private sector credit growth stood at a historic low of 4.75% in April this year, reflecting weak business confidence, slowing investment, and mounting global economic challenges.

Private sector credit growth stood at 4.72% in March, indicating a slight increase. Central bank data shows that growth remained below 5% for two consecutive months.

Economists and bankers said that following the February national election, the overall political environment has improved comparatively. However, the global economic situation and fuel crisis have disrupted demand and supply chains. As a result, investment has remained subdued.Mohammad Ali, Managing Director of Pubali Bank, believes there are several reasons behind the record-low private sector credit growth. He said that while there are many barriers to doing business in the country, the global fuel crisis significantly affected economic activity in March and April. The situation created concern among businesspeople and disrupted the private sector as well.

"Businessmen consider fuel costs when starting a new business or expanding an existing one. The country's businesspeople were reluctant to expand their operations due to the fuel crisis stemming from the Middle East war," he said.

He further said the export situation is not encouraging either. Exporters are not receiving more orders from abroad, while production costs have increased. As a result, costs are rising but even minimum profit margins are not being ensured.Ezazul Islam, Director of BIBM, said there are many challenges to making new investments in the country, and the fuel crisis has become an additional obstacle. Currently, growth remains slow due to weak demand.Private sector credit growth had been declining steadily in recent months, falling from 6.58% in November 2025 to 6.20% in December, and then to 6.03% in both January and February 2026, before dropping sharply in March, according to central bank sources.Bangladesh Bank has been publishing private sector credit growth data since 2003. A review of the data shows that March recorded the second-lowest growth rate in the past 24 years.

A deputy managing director of a private bank told TBS that many businesses shut down after the fall of the Awami League government, while others are operating far below capacity.

He said several factories owned by large business groups, including Nassa Group, Beximco Group and Gazi Group, had closed, reducing demand for bank borrowing.

"When the factories were operational, they imported capital machinery. But even the firms that are still running have reduced production by 60-70%," he said.

Experts, bankers, academics and policymakers yesterday called for the formation of a dedicated reform commission for the banking sector, warning that years of politically backed bank takeovers, weak oversight and regulatory failures have eroded public confidence in the financial system.

The call was made at a seminar titled “Good Governance in the Banking Sector and the Role of the Media”, organised by the Economic Reporters’ Forum (ERF) at its office in Paltan, Dhaka.

Speaking as the chief guest, Information and Broadcasting Minister Zahir Uddin Swapon said the government would bring banking sector reforms under a dedicated commission.

“When commissions have been formed for the media, anti-corruption efforts, and administrative reforms, why should such an important sector be left out? We will certainly do it,” he said.

He added that good governance in the banking sector cannot be achieved without broader reforms in the state and political system. He alleged that economic data had been manipulated in the past to hide the true condition of the economy.

“Without support from the state, it would not have been possible to alter performance-related statistics and information in this way,” he said.

Swapon also stressed the need to reduce the economy’s heavy reliance on bank financing and develop a stronger capital market.

At the seminar, Mohammad Mamdudur Rashid, managing director and CEO of United Commercial Bank (UCB), said the sector is facing multiple challenges due to governance failures, although some banks have continued to perform well.

He added that the industry had also been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and developments after August 2024.

According to Rashid, accountability and transparency are the two foundations of good governance.

“The ratio of non-performing loans rose from 11 percent to 25 percent mainly because of greater transparency. In 2025, Bangladesh Bank instructed banks to disclose the actual figures, making the true picture visible,” he said.

He also said vested interests and weak ethics contributed to current problems, adding that the media had helped expose irregularities long before they became widely acknowledged. However, he warned that inaccurate reporting could weaken depositor confidence.

Shamsul Huq Zahid, editor of The Financial Express, said Bangladesh has too many banks.

“If the economy needed 15 banks, licenses were issued for around 60. Supervising such a large number of banks has become difficult,” he said, adding that comprehensive reforms are urgently needed.

DEPOSITORS’ HARDSHIP AND REGULATORY CONCERNS

Md Shahidul Islam Zahid, professor and chairman of the Department of Banking and Insurance at the University of Dhaka, said depositors are now being forced to queue up to access their own money, which shows the depth of the sector’s problems.

“We tried to build a strong economy while hiding enormous amounts of dirt under the carpet. The question is: where were the regulators?” he said.

He criticised regulators’ role during politically backed bank takeovers and questioned why Bangladesh Bank did not raise public concerns at the time.

Referring to audit irregularities, he said some banks reported profits that later turned into losses after independent audits.

“In one case, a bank reported a profit of Tk 450 crore in 2023, but an audit later found it had actually incurred a loss of Tk 250 crore. Such manipulation involved top-tier auditors and received regulatory approval,” he said, calling for accountability for all parties involved.

Md Ezazul Islam, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM), said shareholders provide only about 4 percent of funds in the banking sector, while depositors supply the remaining 96 percent.

“Yet those who own just 4 percent effectively control the banks, while depositors who provide most of the funds are struggling to access their money,” he said.

He called for greater autonomy, transparency and accountability at Bangladesh Bank, urging it to fully use its legal powers.

Sayema Haque Bidisha, professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Dhaka, stressed the need for objective analysis of financial data. She also urged the media to closely monitor how the newly announced Tk 60,000 crore stimulus package is used.

As a special guest, Nurun Nahar, deputy governor of Bangladesh Bank, said most bank funds belong to depositors, who keep their money in banks based on trust.

“When people cannot withdraw their money when needed, a crisis arises,” she said.

She said some borrowers take loans without any intention of repaying them and are identified as wilful defaulters. She stressed the need for regular inspections and effective implementation of inspection reports to prevent irregularities.

She also acknowledged that many banking sector scandals were first exposed through media reports, adding that misuse or embezzlement of public money can never be justified.

Masrur Riyaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, also spoke at the event.

The keynote paper was jointly presented by Obaidullah Rony, special correspondent of Samakal, and Sanaullah Sakib, senior reporter of Prothom Alo.

The seminar was chaired by ERF President Doulot Akter Mala and moderated by ERF General Secretary Abul Kashem.

Gold fell about 3 percent on Friday after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report reinforced expectations that ‌the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer amid inflation concerns fuelled by the war in the Middle East.

Spot gold was down 2.96 percent at $4,341.52 per ounce at 1:44 p.m. EDT (1744 GMT), after falling ​to its lowest level since March 24 earlier in the session. Bullion was down ​about 4.3 percent this week.

US gold futures for August delivery settled 3.1 percent lower at $4,365.3.

Nonfarm ⁠payrolls increased by 172,000 jobs in May after rising by an upwardly revised 179,000 ​in April, the US Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its report. A Reuters ​poll had forecast a gain of 85,000 jobs after a previously reported rise of 115,000 in April.

“We’ve got payrolls that came in fairly significantly over what was expected,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy ​at TD Securities.

“In light of the fact that we continue to have the war in ​Iran and very large energy prices and inflationary pressures, it makes it quite unlikely that the Fed is ‌in ⁠any mood whatsoever to lower rates. The implication for gold here is that the cost of carry is getting quite high.”

US Treasury yields jumped after the release of the jobs data, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

The price of Brent crude oil was on track ​for a weekly gain. ​Bullion has fallen more ⁠than 17 percent since the US-backed war with Iran began in late February. The conflict has led to a surge in oil prices and stoked fears of ​inflation and higher interest rates.

Although gold is seen as an inflation hedge, ​higher rates tend ⁠to weigh on the metal. Markets are currently pricing about a 72 percent chance of a Fed rate hike in December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, compared to about 50 percent before the jobs data.

Gold demand ⁠was ​subdued in India this week, while premiums in China ​eased.

Bangladesh’s overall inflation climbed to a 16-month high of 9.42 percent in May, driven largely by a sharp rise in food prices that is squeezing household budgets, particularly for low- and middle-income families.

According to data released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), food inflation rose to 9.06 percent in May from 8.39 percent in April, reflecting higher prices of essential commodities. Non-food inflation also increased, reaching 9.71 percent from 9.57 percent in April.

Rural areas bore the brunt of the rise, with inflation climbing to 9.48 percent from 9.05 percent the previous month. Urban inflation rose from 9.02 percent to 9.25 percent.

A BBS official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the increase was spread across a range of commodities rather than concentrated in any single category of items.

“It increased in some places and decreased in others. For example, summer vegetable prices have been easing, but year-round and winter vegetables such as tomatoes and carrots are rising again. Egg prices have also gone up,” the official noted.

They added that the full effect of the recent fuel price adjustment had not yet been captured in the May figures, and that a further spike in inflation next month was likely as a result.

Analysts and policy researchers agree that the current trajectory is cause for concern, and that the risks ahead may be greater than the May figures alone suggest.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh, said the government was compelled to adjust fuel and electricity prices to tackle the impacts of the US-Israel war on Iran.

It is natural that the impact will eventually spread across the entire supply chain and be reflected in higher prices, he noted.

“What is more concerning is that inflation may rise further in the coming days,” he said, arguing that the financial situation, combined with planned subsidy expansion in the budget, pointed in that direction.

Rahman said judging from the design of the budget, it could no longer be said that the country is pursuing a contractionary monetary policy, since such a policy required a tight fiscal stance alongside a high policy rate.

Instead, he said, the government was moving toward expansionary fiscal policy and a looser monetary environment simultaneously — a combination that carried significant inflation risk.

“If immediate attention is not given to this issue, inflation could rise sharply within a short period,” he cautioned, noting that similar situations have been observed in Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

“When an economy experiences a supply shock, some argue that there is no need for a contractionary monetary policy environment. This view is wrong,” he said. “To bring inflation under control, a tight monetary environment is necessary, accompanied by a correspondingly tight fiscal stance. Unfortunately, we are moving in the opposite direction on both fronts.”

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has reached a similar conclusion about the underlying drivers.

In a recent report, the think-tank found that external shocks, including the Covid-19 outbreak, the Russia–Ukraine war, and the Middle East conflict, have exerted significant upward pressure on essential commodity prices in Bangladesh, exposing the economy’s growing vulnerability to international disruptions and their spillover effects on domestic inflation.

Both Rahman and CPD point to structural weaknesses in domestic markets as compounding the problem.

The CPD called for stronger monitoring and regulatory oversight of intermediaries, particularly those who trade in bulks, to curb collusive practices and artificial price manipulation in essential commodity markets.

It also recommended reducing excessive layers of intermediaries in supply chains to narrow the gap between farm-gate and retail prices.

The think-tank also urged the government to maintain strategic reserves of essential food items and release them during supply shocks to stabilise prices. It also recommended strengthening social protection schemes for low-income households in light of recent hikes in cooking gas and transportation costs.

PRI’s Ashikur, meanwhile, noted that with inflation approaching 10 percent, attempting to stimulate growth through expansionary policies was highly risky.

He recommended attracting investment through productivity-enhancing reforms instead, including privatisation of state-owned enterprises, easing of investment and business regulations, and prioritised spending in the energy and logistics sectors.

The global airline industry nearly halved its ​2026 profit forecast on Sunday, citing conflict in the Middle East that has driven up fuel costs, disrupted key air ‌corridors and exposed the fragility of a sector operating on thin margins.

The International Air Transport Association, which represents more than 370 airlines accounting for about 85 percent of global air traffic, said in its annual report that it now expects the industry to post a combined net profit of $23 billion in 2026, well below a previous projection of ​about $41 billion and down from $45 billion in 2025.

The downgrade underscores airlines’ exposure to geopolitical shocks and fuel volatility, even as passenger ​demand remains resilient, planes are flying fuller and revenues are set to rise to more than $1.1 trillion.

“There are two major factors: one is the significant increase in jet fuel prices, which has gone way higher than I think anybody would have expected, and ​then the disruption to the airlines in the Gulf region, so that combination has led us to reduce the forecast,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh ​told Reuters at the group’s annual meeting in Rio de Janeiro.

Walsh said he expects some smaller airlines to go bankrupt or be taken over by bigger carriers this year and next as higher fuel costs bite. US low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines shut down last month, the first airline casualty of the Iran war.

Airlines are also expected to cut ​unprofitable routes to protect margins, while fares - which have surged since the start of the Iran war - are unlikely to fall soon, Walsh said.

“In ​an environment where demand remains pretty robust, but capacity comes down, that will likely lead to a situation where fares will remain elevated,” Walsh said.

The Middle East conflict, triggered by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, has forced airlines to reroute flights around closed or restricted airspace, adding hours to some journeys, increasing fuel burn and straining already tight capacity.

At the same time, oil prices have surged on fears of supply disruption, pushing jet fuel prices sharply higher and widening refinery margins, leaving airlines facing a steep jump in their largest cost.

Gulf airlines such as Emirates, Qatar Airways ​and Etihad Airways face the greatest ​operational uncertainty after a near-complete shutdown of regional airspace at the start of the conflict.

Walsh said most regions should remain profitable, though at lower levels, while Middle East airlines are likely to slip into the red due to the conflict and weaker ​demand.

IATA expects airlines’ fuel bill to surge to about $350 billion this year from roughly $252 billion in 2025, with ​fuel accounting for ⁠nearly a third of operating costs.

That is eroding profitability per passenger, with airlines now expected to earn about $4.50 per passenger, roughly half last year’s level.

On the upside, IATA expects industry revenues to rise 9.4 percent to around $1.16 trillion this year, driven by steady travel demand, higher fares, and growing income from extras such ⁠as seat ​upgrades and onboard services.

Aircraft shortages are also squeezing the sector. Delivery delays at Boeing and ​Airbus are forcing airlines to keep older, less fuel-efficient planes in service for longer, raising maintenance bills and blunting efforts to improve margins, Walsh said.

Masud Khan, the newly appointed chairman of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission, has announced an aggressive strategy to bring high-quality companies to the stock market through direct listing, describing the move as essential for building stronger institutions and ensuring the long-term sustainability of the private sector.

Speaking as the chief guest at the 10th Anniversary Gala Night of the CFA Society Bangladesh yesterday (6 June), Masud said the regulator would actively encourage state-owned enterprises, multinational companies and fundamentally strong local corporates to join the capital market.

"Once you create a listed company, you bring in more professionals, and ultimately, you solve the issues of succession and sustainability," he said.

"Private sector companies often collapse when ownership changes, but listing turns a company into a lasting institution. I personally think we are going to be very aggressive in a direct listing. We will identify good companies and tell them: go for it."

The BSEC chairman pointed out that many well-governed entities, such as banks and MNCs, already maintain transparent accounts and do not necessarily need to raise fresh capital through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). For such firms, he suggested that direct listing is the most logical route to enter the capital market.

"For banks, MNCs, and good local corporates that are already capital-sufficient, I will say: I don't want your capital; just go for direct listing to allow public participation and enhance your institutional status," he added.

Simplification over complication

Masud, who brings decades of experience from the corporate sector, laid out a regulatory philosophy based on the mantra: "Regulate where necessary and simplify where possible." He expressed a firm commitment to overhauling the existing rulebooks for IPOs, margin loans, and mutual funds, which he believes have become unnecessarily cumbersome.

"The rules have to be simplified significantly. If we want the market to deepen, we cannot work in isolation; market intermediaries must be part of this process," he said.

The BSEC chairman lamented the lack of meaningful dialogue between the regulator and market participants in recent years, noting that many constructive suggestions from reform committees previously failed to "see the light of day" because regulators believed they knew better than the market.

While advocating for simplification, he issued a stern warning against malpractice. Referring to a finance minister's stance, he said, "Please self-govern, but if you are caught violating the rules, your 'chips will fry.' Be very sure that whatever you are doing is absolutely right, because once caught, there is no easy entry back."

Science of valuation and 'horror' of paper

A key priority for the new BSEC leadership is the digitisation of the entire capital market ecosystem. Masud described the current state of reporting as a "horror story," pointing out that merchant banks and mutual funds are still required to submit applications for IPOs and rights issues on physical paper. "How are we still living in the Stone Age? This has to stop immediately," he asserted.

Addressing market volatility, he characterised the share market as a "science" involving the intricate study of valuation - a skill he noted is severely lacking among the general investing public. "We are in a situation with many uninformed investors. As a result, most trading today takes place in junk shares - small-cap companies or firms that have been closed for years. This is not efficient."

To combat manipulation in these "previous" or junk shares, the chairman announced plans for a robust, integrated surveillance system. This system will align the BSEC, the Dhaka Stock Exchange, Chittagong Stock Exchange and the Central Depository Bangladesh Limited with automated triggers to halt or release trading instantly based on suspicious activity.

CFA Society's milestone

The event also served as a platform for the CFA Society Bangladesh to celebrate a decade of promoting professional excellence. The Society recognised the top employers of CFA Charterholders in the country, including Bangladesh Bank, BRAC Bank, City Bank, IDLC Finance, EDGE AMC, IDLC Finance, Prime Bank Securities, Shanta Asset Management, Shanta Securities, Standard Chartered Bank, HSBC Bangladesh, United Commercial Bank. It also honoured top universities such as the University of Dhaka, BUP, BRAC University, and North South University for their high registration rates in the CFA Program.

M Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, delivered the keynote address, focusing on the need for a conducive fiscal policy to improve the investment climate.

Asif Khan, president of the CFA Society Bangladesh, highlighted the society's growth, noting that it now boasts over 131 Charterholders and 80 Associate Members working across the nation's most reputed financial institutions.

The government is set to announce corporate tax rates for the next five years, offering the long-term policy certainty businesses and investors have long sought for.

Tax rates, however, are unlikely to increase. Finance ministry officials familiar with the matter say the government plans to keep rates unchanged until fiscal year 2030-31.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is expected to go further in his first national budget, due on June 11, by introducing a broader three-year predictable tax framework, extending beyond the two years already announced by the interim government.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman approved the proposal in principle on May 14 during a high-level meeting at the Secretariat, according to finance ministry officials who attended.

Under the proposed roadmap, listed companies would pay a corporate tax rate of 22.5 percent, while non-listed firms would be taxed at 27.5 percent. Both categories could qualify for reduced rates of 20 percent and 25 percent, respectively, if all income is channelled through banking transactions.

One Person Companies (OPCs) are likely to face a tax rate of 27.5 percent. Banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions would pay 37.5 percent if listed and 40 percent if non-listed.

Mobile operators are likely to be taxed at a flat 45 percent, while private universities and colleges could benefit from a reduced rate of 10 percent. Tobacco products and cigarettes would remain subject to a 45 percent tax plus a 2.5 percent surcharge.

“There will be an indication in the budget to reduce corporate tax gradually as the government looks to expand its coverage,” a senior finance ministry official said, requesting anonymity.

The official added that companies currently paying the highest rates are likely to see gradual reductions in the coming years.

In fiscal year 2021-22, the corporate tax rate for non-listed companies was reduced to 30 percent from 32.5 percent, while the rate for listed firms was cut to 22.5 percent from 25 percent.

Rupali Chowdhury, president of the Foreign Investors’ Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), welcomed the move, saying policy predictability is essential for business planning and investment decisions.

“We like predictability very much. Predictability is good. Businesses need certainty to make long-term investment decisions,” said Chowdhury.

She argued that recent increases in supplementary duties have offset the benefits of lower corporate tax rates.

“Corporate tax is imposed on profits, but supplementary duty is imposed on revenue. On one hand, the tax rate is being reduced, but on the other hand, the government is taking back more through higher supplementary duties,” she said.

Chowdhury said businesses often have little choice but to pass the additional costs on to consumers, contributing to inflation and raising operating costs.

She also expressed concern that compliant companies bear a disproportionate share of the tax burden while non-compliant firms continue to evade taxes, undermining fair competition and reducing government revenue.

Snehasish Barua, managing director of SMAC Advisory Services, said the roadmap would provide much-needed certainty but warned against locking in tax rates for an extended period.

“Globally, corporate tax rates are falling. Locking Bangladesh’s private company tax rate at 27.5 percent until assessment year 2030-31 risks severely damaging our competitiveness against regional peers such as Vietnam and Indonesia,” he said.

He noted that international practice usually limits such policy commitments to two or three years.

Barua said maintaining relatively high corporate tax rates over the long term could discourage private investment at a time when Bangladesh needs stronger economic growth and job creation.

“If the government’s ultimate goal is to create employment, it must rethink locking in uncompetitive long-term rates and instead design an agile fiscal strategy that stimulates domestic investment and robust job growth,” he added.

Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, also welcomed the proposal, saying it addresses longstanding concerns about policy inconsistency. However, he said Bangladesh’s corporate tax rates and overall tax burden are high compared with regional competitors such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and India.

“This is the first positive step, but the next important step should be rationalising the corporate tax rate, which is still quite high compared to comparable economies,” he said.

He added that advance income tax and other mechanisms increase the effective tax burden beyond the headline rate. “While predictability is welcome, the next step must be rationalisation of tax rates to improve competitiveness,” he said.

A motorcycle helmet declared at just $3, or about Tk 370, during import is being sold in the local market for as much as Tk 4,500.

The wide price difference between import values and retail rates has prompted local manufacturers and large importers to accuse customs authorities of failing to properly assess imports of the essential protective headgear for riding.

They allege that the failure encourages under-invoicing, deprives the government of revenue and undermines both local production and rider safety.

Meanwhile, a senior revenue official acknowledged that under-invoicing, where importers declare goods at lower-than-actual values to reduce taxes, remains a “major challenge” in helmet imports.

According to customs data, Bangladesh imported 8.75 lakh motorcycle helmets in 2025. The total declared value stood at $2.45 million. As per this estimate, the average import value per unit helmet is less than $3, or about Tk 370 at an exchange rate of Tk 123 to the dollar.

Last year, India supplied the majority of imports, accounting for 633,384 helmets, followed by China with 223,293 units. Smaller quantities arrived from Vietnam, Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia and Japan.

Customs records show helmets imported from India were declared at an average value of $3.02 per unit, while those from China were valued at just $1.96.

But visits to markets in Dhaka, as well as in Chattogram, found many of the same brands selling for between Tk 1,200 and Tk 6,000, depending on model and quality.

Import data show that several Indian brands, including Vega, Steelbird, Gliders, Axor, Telish and Aerostar, were declared at prices ranging from $2.50 to $3 per unit. Many of those helmets are retailing in the local market for between Tk 1,100 and Tk 4,500.

In May this year, Narayanganj-based New Nation Automobiles imported 7,236 Gliders helmets from India, declaring a unit value of $2.52. Customs assessed the shipment at $3 per unit for duty purposes.

Even after adding duties, taxes and value-added tax (VAT), which together amount to 59 percent, the estimated landed cost would remain below Tk 600 per helmet, according to import documents. But the same brand is selling in the local market for between Tk 1,200 and Tk 4,500.

Contacted, Nurul Haque, proprietor of New Nation Automobiles, said the declared import value did not reflect the total cost of bringing a product to market.

“After adding LC commissions, shipping costs, customs duties and VAT, our cost exceeds Tk 800 per helmet. We sell to wholesalers at Tk 900-Tk 950. By the time the product reaches retailers through multiple distribution layers, the price increases further,” Haque told The Daily Star.

He said helmets priced between Tk 800 and Tk 1,200 account for nearly 80 percent of market demand.

Industry players, however, say the practice remains widespread and is hurting compliant businesses.

Rokon Sarkar, deputy director of ACI Motors, which imports helmet brands including SMK and Studds, said compliant importers are facing mounting pressure as some traders allegedly understate helmet values to reduce taxes.

“Some importers are declaring a helmet at only $2.5, while we declare the actual price, around $15, and pay taxes and VAT accordingly,” he told The Daily Star.

He said the practice allows some importers to avoid a substantial portion of the roughly 62 percent duty and tax on helmet imports, making it increasingly difficult for compliant businesses to compete.

According to Sarkar, under-declaration is also contributing to the spread of lower-quality helmets while reducing government revenue.

ACI Motors previously imported premium Italian brands Nolan and X-Lite, which sold for between Tk 25,000 and Tk 60,000.

Motorcycles have become increasingly popular in major cities as a fast and affordable means of transport. According to Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA) data, the number of registered motorcycles stood at 45.8 lakh at the end of 2024, up from 31.25 lakh four years ago.

At the same time, motorcycle crashes have emerged as the leading cause of road fatalities. According to the Road Safety Foundation, motorcycles were involved in around 40 percent of all fatal road crashes in 2025.

The organisation recorded 3,029 motorcycle-related accidents that year, killing 2,671 riders and passengers.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says quality helmets can reduce the risk of death in a road crash by more than six times and lower the risk of brain injury by up to 74 percent.

While most Vega, Steelbird and Gliders helmets were declared at around $3 per unit, premium brands such as Studds, SMK and Graphic were declared at values ranging from $8.50 to $30.80. These products usually retail for between Tk 2,200 and Tk 6,000 in Bangladesh.

An NBR official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said under-invoicing in helmet import remains a major problem.

According to an analysis by the NBR’s valuation committee, around 95 percent of helmets imported in 2025 were declared at $3 or less per unit. Another 4 percent were declared at values between $3.50 and $15, while only about 1 percent were declared within the $15-$31 range.

“Whenever importers declare values of $3 or less, we usually apply a loading of $0.20 to $0.50 cents during assessment. This helps recover part of the revenue loss, although we know the actual value is often much higher,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

Industry representatives argue that the consequences extend beyond lost revenue and are also affecting road safety and domestic manufacturing.

RN Paul, managing director of RFL, which manufactures Safemet helmets, said local manufacturers could expand production if imported helmets were assessed at their proper value during customs clearance.

“Increasing capacity is not difficult for us,” he said. “But if the existing duty structure continues, there is little point in expanding because consumers will not buy our products.”

Shah Muhammad Ashequr Rahman, chief marketing officer of Bangladesh Honda Private Limited, which imports Honda helmets, said quality-certified helmets are becoming less competitive because of lower import value declarations by non-compliant traders.

He said the practice allows cheaper and lower-quality helmets to dominate the market, discouraging imports of internationally certified products.

Rahman also said the BSTI approval process requires multiple sample units for each size and model, along with testing and certification fees, increasing costs for compliant importers.

“If regulatory costs, approval time and import duties are reduced while maintaining proper quality standards, internationally certified helmets will become more accessible and affordable,” Rahman said.

Global oil inventories are running dangerously low as a deal to re-open tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has proven elusive, and industry executives and analysts warn there could be another oil price shock in the coming weeks, severe enough to upset broader financial markets.

Some fear the next move higher for oil prices would pose a risk to economic growth, bond yields and the bull market for stocks.

"We're approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels. You can debate whether that's going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. But once you get to that point, you'll see prices shoot up," Neil Chapman, Exxon Mobil senior vice president, said at the Bernstein conference in New York on 28 May.

Chapman said that if inventory levels get much lower, dated Brent, which is used to price more than 60% of globally traded crude, could rise to $150 or $160 a barrel.

Crude inventories and strategic reserve releases have kept oil prices somewhat under control in the four months that the war with Iran has kept supplies from reaching much of the world. Crude futures have been trading below $100 a barrel despite the strait remaining effectively closed.

For days, US President Donald Trump has said a deal to reopen the strait is imminent. But so far it has been elusive, and warnings from the oil industry have gotten sharper.

If stock draws continue at their current pace, sinking global oil inventories could hit critically low levels just as summer fuel demand hits its peak, the head of the International Energy Agency's oil industry and markets division, Toril Bosoni, said on Tuesday.

"Once they (cushions) thin out, prices have to do more of the adjustment work. That means either consumers pay more or demand gets destroyed," said Mehmet Beceren, vice president and senior market strategist at Rosenberg Research, who said a tipping point could be reached by the end of June.

"Once we move into the back half of June it is likely that we see oil prices rapidly appreciate" unless the Strait of Hormuz throughput normalises to pre-conflict levels, JPMorgan's Data Assets and Alpha group predicted, citing the bank's research.

In the US, the world's largest crude producer, crude inventories including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 791 million barrels in the week to 29 May, their lowest since February 2024, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

US crude stocks are down almost 64 million barrels since the start of the war, and have fallen for eight straight weeks.

The US is in the process of releasing 172 million barrels from the SPR, part of a coordinated effort by the IEA to release a record 400 million barrels of oil to combat rising prices.

Those stock releases alongside a drop in Chinese seaborne crude imports, which in May hit the lowest level in nearly 10 years, have helped quell some of the supply shock.

"I think the risk of a second price shock is real, but the key point is that it may come from the exhaustion of buffers rather than from the initial Hormuz closure itself," Shohruh Zukhritdinov, a Dubai-based oil trader, said.

Drawdowns in US strategic petroleum reserves, fuel substitution and other factors that have limited the price spike may not be enough if the disruption drags on, analysts in JPMorgan's Data Assets and Alpha group said.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Knock-on effects

Investors said that the conflict has embedded a lasting risk premium in crude, with knock-on effects for inflation, bond yields and consumer spending.

Recent events suggest a lasting structural change in energy markets, said Joseph Tanious, chief investment strategist at Northern Trust Asset Management.

"The Strait of Hormuz is now firmly established as a persistent geopolitical chokepoint," Tanious said, adding that a return to pre-war oil prices below $70 looked unlikely even if tensions eased.

As a result, he sees an uneven global impact, with Europe and Asia remaining more vulnerable to sustained energy inflation, while the US, a net exporter, is relatively better insulated.

Higher oil prices are "a modest headwind" for the US economy, said Adam Schickling, senior economist at Vanguard, thanks to domestic oil production and strong investments in artificial intelligence which have offset pressure on consumers.

Yet in a scenario where crude rises to around $120 per barrel and remains there for a year, US economic growth could slow by about 0.4 percentage points, according to Vanguard's estimates.

For households, the impact depends less on the precise level of oil prices and more on how long they stay elevated. Consumers retain some buffer, with fuel costs accounting for a smaller share of income than in previous oil shocks. But that cushion diminishes over time.

If prices remained high through the next three months as the summer driving season begins, consumer spending could slow further, said Phil Blancato, chief market strategist at Osaic.

"Consumer sentiment is already at all-time lows, but if oil prices stay here for another three months, or move meaningfully higher in the short term, start to look for a real economic impact," Blancato said, urging portfolio diversification, including looking outside of equities.

SpaceX’s record-smashing IPO plan shows investors are eager to keep pouring money into all things AI, even as alarm bells ring for the wider economy.

And that has analysts wondering: Where will the cash come from if soaring inflation dents growth? Or if the artificial intelligence rollout proves less profitable than hoped?

HISTORIC INFLUX

Investment by AI labs is at historically “unprecedented” levels, with expected outlays by the 11 top American players over the next 12 months representing nearly three percent of US GDP, said Raphael Gallardo, chief economist at asset management group Carmignac in Paris.

At the beginning of this year confidence in that spending surge wobbled, with chipmakers and other tech hardware firms taking a hit on stock markets worldwide. But despite the outbreak of an ongoing war in the Middle East, “for now, those concerns largely have been dismissed by the markets” after reassuring profit reports, said Adam Sarhan of 50 Park Investments in New York.

“If you look at the actual earnings, those fears did not come to pass and in fact a lot of companies” committed to spend more on AI, Sarhan told AFP. Google for example announced this week that it would raise up to $80 billion for a major expansion of its AI infrastructure.

It said it was “compute constrained in the near term” -- jargon meaning it cannot build necessary infrastructure fast enough to meet demand. SpaceX meanwhile aims to raise $75 billion in an initial public offering expected next week, by far the largest IPO ever.

Its rivals OpenAI and Anthropic, behind ChatGPT and Claude respectively, are set to follow suit in the coming months, valuing the companies around a whopping $1 trillion.

GOBBLING UP CHIPS

Beyond US-based chatbot makers, companies worldwide have profited from the AI rush, especially chipmakers providing their computing power.

South Korea’s benchmark Kospi stock index for example has nearly doubled its value since January this year, propelled by chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK hynix -- both also now trillion-dollar companies.

Those two companies alone account for half the Kospi’s market capitalisation.

“The fact that two companies make up such a large portion of the market highlights just how concentrated that dependence is, and that is the biggest risk factor,” said Kim Dae-jong, a professor at Sejong University.

In Taiwan, TSMC, a supplier to AI chip specialist Nvidia, represents on its own 40 percent of the Taipei stock market, while technology investor SoftBank in Japan this week surpassed Toyota as the country’s most valuable company.

In the United States, red-hot demand for Micron and Intel chips have seen their share prices more than double so far this year, while European equity benchmarks have soared thanks in large part to Infineon and STMicroelectronics.

TOO HOT FOR COMFORT

There are signs however that market expectations have outstripped the ability of companies to meet them.

This week the US chip specialist Broadcom saw its shares plunge despite its second-quarter profit having nearly doubled to $9.3 billion as its forecast for third-quarter chip revenue growth of over 200 percent failed to meet expectations.

“The support provided by huge capital inflows to AI and chip stocks is fading, exposing the often extreme overpricing in these sectors,” said Andreas Lipkow, analyst at CMC Markets.

“In a best case, investors will take profits ahead of the summer pause, and markets would have time to consolidate,” he said, especially if they sell tech holdings to buy the new SpaceX shares.

“If not, the likelihood of a major short-term correction on international equity markets remains high,” he said.

“These companies are cash cows and we’re in one of the biggest investment cycles in history”, said Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management in Switzerland.

But so far none of the three AI powerhouses -- SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI -- are turning profits, he noted, “which argues for more caution”, he said.

AI VS STAGLFATION?

Analysts and policymakers are worried that AI enthusiasm cannot escape the gravitational pull of soaring energy costs -- data centres suck huge amounts of electricity -- and slowing growth overall.

In the US alone, AI investments currently account for nearly nine-tenths of GDP growth overall -- overshadowing weak consumer demand and rising costs for small and midsize firms, said Gallardo at Carmignac.

“AI-related spending has become a huge part of the US growth story... the same handful of firms raising money, buying chips, leasing compute and booking revenues off one another,” added James Smith, an economist at ING.

“But the fact remains that if you strip out AI, the rest of US private non-residential investment has been falling year-on-year for six straight quarters,” he said.

And the situation could worsen if the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and other central banks raise rates to contain energy-fuelled inflation, something many analysts consider inevitable.