International oil prices have fallen sharply amid signs of easing tensions between the United States and Iran, but consumers in Bangladesh are unlikely to see immediate relief at the pump as the government continues prioritising the recovery of subsidy costs accumulated during recent market volatility.

The international benchmark Brent crude, which is used to price refined petroleum products, stood at around $72.48 per barrel on 27 February, just before the Iran conflict escalated. It surged during the conflict, reaching a peak of $112 per barrel on 18 May – an increase of 54.5% from pre-war levels.

Since then, prices have retreated sharply. Brent was trading at $83.19 per barrel yesterday (15 June), down 4.74% in a single session amid reports of progress in potential US-Iran negotiations. The benchmark has now fallen 25.7% from its May peak, though it remains 14.8% higher than pre-conflict levels.

Despite the correction in global markets, Energy Division officials say domestic fuel prices are unlikely to be reduced in the near term.

"Oil prices are falling in the international market but are still higher than the pre-war level, which continues to require substantial subsidy support for diesel," said Monir Hossain Chowdhury, Joint Secretary (Operations Wing) of the Energy Division. He added that diesel still requires a subsidy of about Tk50 per litre.

"We are monitoring the global fuel market closely. Future decisions on price adjustments will depend on market movements, as discussions on the Iran issue are still ongoing," he said.

Officials estimate that fuel subsidies in FY2025-26 could reach around Tk5,000 crore, largely to keep diesel prices below cost. Petrol, octane and other petroleum products are currently priced largely in line with international markets and do not require subsidy support.

Middle Eastern crude benchmarks see steeper decline

The decline has been steeper in Middle Eastern crude benchmarks used for Asian pricing.
Murban crude, produced in the United Arab Emirates, fell from $110.04 per barrel on 18 May to $77.31 yesterday, a 29.7% drop.

Arab Light crude, used by Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation for refining at Eastern Refinery, declined from $119.09 to $87.75 over the same period, down 26.3%.

Prices were raised as global oil surged

Domestic fuel prices were previously raised on 18 April, when global markets spiked amid fears of supply disruption following the US-Israeli attack on Iran. At that time, Brent crude closed at $91.87 per barrel – already 26.8% higher than the pre-war level.

Diesel was increased to Tk115 per litre from Tk100, octane to Tk140 from Tk120, petrol to Tk135 from Tk116, and kerosene to Tk130 from Tk112. A second adjustment on 31 May added Tk5 per litre to octane, petrol and kerosene, taking them to Tk145, Tk140 and Tk135 respectively.

Energy expert M Tamim said declines in global prices do not always translate into lower transport or commodity costs domestically. "Price reductions during downward cycles rarely reach consumers, as bus fares and freight charges do not adjust accordingly. That is why there is limited pressure to reduce fuel prices," he said.

He added that stronger monitoring in the transport sector would be needed to ensure that any future reductions in fuel prices benefit consumers.

The era of customs authorities arbitrarily determining the value of imported consignments instead of accepting buyers' declared and actual transaction values is set to end.

To this effect, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) has issued an order, under which internationally recognised websites and journals will be used as valuation benchmarks.

Experts believe the move will not only prevent the practice of imposing additional taxes through overvaluation but will also reduce opportunities for revenue evasion through false declarations. As a result, consumers may be spared an estimated additional Tk15,000 crore in costs annually.

According to the NBR order, if the value information provided in import documents submitted by importers is found to be consistent with information from internationally recognised and independent pricing publications, websites or journals such as S&P Global Platts, Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), London Metal Exchange (LME), Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), Bloomberg, International Sugar Organization (ISO), or similar publications, the importer's declared value may be accepted as the correct transaction value for customs assessment purposes.

A senior NBR official involved in the budget process, speaking to The Business Standard on condition of anonymity, said, "The journals mentioned cover nearly 95% of imported goods."

The websites and publications in question regularly update commodity prices and are widely used around the world as benchmarks for determining transaction values.

Businesspeople say Bangladesh customs authorities often continue to assess goods based on reference prices established when global prices were high. Although prices frequently return to normal levels or decline after temporary increases, customs authorities continue to use the higher reference values, forcing importers to pay additional duties and taxes, which ultimately raise consumer prices.

At the same time, if an importer purchases goods at a price higher than the reference value, that higher value must now be declared, reducing opportunities for under-invoicing.

NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan told The Business Standard, "The new decision will reduce opportunities for both under-invoicing and over-invoicing. Assessment based on transaction value will ensure the government receives the correct amount of revenue, while reducing the scope for complaints from businesses.

"A major issue under the current valuation system is the large number of litigations and appeals. These disputes and appeals will decline significantly."

The NBR chairman said, "This will provide substantial relief to businesses."

Business leaders and experts have described the initiative as "groundbreaking". They argue that assessments based on actual prices will reduce the likelihood of higher costs for consumers while also limiting opportunities for money laundering.

According to recent estimates, importers paid nearly Tk30,000 crore in additional duties over the past two years because customs authorities assessed imported consignments at values higher than their actual import prices. Experts believe consumers ultimately bore this additional cost.

They also argue that the practice is unscientific and inconsistent with the principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

For years, businesses have opposed customs assessments based on reference values, instead demanding that import duties be calculated using actual transaction values.

The BNP-led political government has now moved to fulfil that long-standing demand.

Salman Karim, managing director of Confidence Infrastructure Ltd, one of Bangladesh's leading business conglomerates, said, "The decision to assess import consignments based on transaction values will be transformative for us.

"It will create opportunities to reduce both our costs and the harassment we face."

Snehasish Barua, a chartered accountant and director of SMAC Advisory Services Limited, told TBS, "This decision will reduce costs and harassment for compliant businesses, while non-compliant operators will face greater scrutiny."

Calling it a "landmark initiative", he said, "Whenever we attend hearings, we see that most litigation revolves around valuation issues. These disputes will now decline significantly, and the government will receive the correct amount of revenue."

Current valuation system can increase taxes by 50%

The total tax incidence on polypropylene fibre (PP fibre) – the main raw material used to manufacture geobags – including duties and taxes, is approximately 28%.

A Confidence Group company manufactures geobags. Salman Karim told TBS that the average import price of PP fibre over the past two and a half years has been around $1,200 per tonne. However, customs authorities assessed imports using a reference value of $1,550 per tonne, roughly 30% higher than the actual price.

He said, "Although actual import prices have increased recently due to developments in the Middle East and other factors, they still remain below $1,350 per tonne. Yet importers have been paying duties based on the inflated valuation used over the past two and a half years.

"As a result, importers in this sector have been paying around Tk70 crore in additional import taxes every year."

He added, "This increased our costs and pushed up product prices."

Faridur Rahman, a small importer based in Mirpur who imports switches, sockets and other electrical and electronic products, told TBS, "The value used by the NBR for assessing switches and sockets is around 50% higher than the actual value, which significantly raises our costs."

"We have no choice but to pass these additional costs on to consumers because our profit margins are already very small," he said.

A new report titled "Tax Policy for Development: A Reform Agenda for Restructuring the Tax System," prepared by the National Task Force for Tax Reforms, found that overall import values in FY24 and FY25 were increased by up to 15% compared with importers' declared transaction values.

While the report does not quantify the additional revenue collected through loading, importers estimate they paid up to Tk15,000 crore extra annually, or roughly Tk30,000 crore over two years. According to NBR data, more than Tk2 lakh crore in import taxes was collected during those two fiscal years.

Accessing the data will cost money

NBR sources said access to the international databases mentioned in the order will require paid subscriptions, with total annual costs estimated at around Tk2 crore.

The NBR chairman said the subscription process for these platforms has already begun.

However, another source said discussions on obtaining subscriptions have been ongoing for the past year with little progress, largely due to bureaucratic delays.

The NBR official said, "Importers themselves may subscribe to these databases and provide the data to the NBR, and the NBR will accept it."

However, the cost could be prohibitively high for small importers.

The official suggested another option: "Instead of individual businesses subscribing separately, their trade associations could obtain subscriptions and share access among members."

"What we need is access to the data. If importers can obtain access themselves and share it with us while our own process is delayed, we will accept it," he said.

The extreme ​volatility of global oil prices has drained liquidity from the market this year at the fastest pace ‌on record, as investors have become increasingly wary of committing cash to an asset that has become hostage to US President Donald Trump’s daily social media posts on the Iran war.

Liquidity, or how well matched the number of buyers is to the number of sellers, is the ​product of a number of factors, including traded volume and open interest.

Open interest, or the number of Brent ​crude futures contracts that investors own, has fallen by nearly 17 percent this year, the fastest rate since at least 2009, according to LSEG data .

Trump’s pattern of ratcheting up threats against Tehran, only to assert hours later ​that a peace deal is imminent, as well as the difficulty in tracking real-world oil fundamentals right now, has led ​to a degree of fatigue among investors, traders say.

“People are exhausted by this chaos. They want this to be over. You cannot trade futures without being constantly burned in an environment when the messaging changes every other hour,” a senior executive from a major trading desk said. ​The executive asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Oil prices fell nearly 3 percent to their lowest ​in nearly two months on Friday after Trump called off threatened new strikes on Iran on Thursday, saying a deal to end ‌the war was close.

The front-month August Brent futures contract registered the lowest open interest since last July when it became the most-actively traded at the start of this month, with 534,227 lots. Open interest peaks at the start of the month and gradually dwindles until expiry of the contract, at which point, it shifts to the next month in the ​chain.

When liquidity becomes thin, buyers and ​sellers must often accept far higher, or lower prices than they otherwise would, because of a dearth of willing counterparties, thereby creating larger price swings. This increases possible rewards, but also the risk of losses.

Former ​Goldman Sachs commodities chief Jeffrey Currie said this week the real reason the oil ​price had not returned meaningfully above $100 a barrel in the past few weeks was not a sign of supply - which has been severely constricted by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz - being plentiful, but rather of what he called “capital aversion”.

“Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to ​hold,” he said in a post on X on June 10.

“2026 year-to-date open interest ​decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion,” Currie, who is a ​senior adviser to alternative asset manager Carlyle, said.

Business leaders have welcomed the proposed national budget for FY2026-27, describing it as a positive step for the private sector and evidence of a shift in the government's approach toward businesses and investors.

The observations were made at a seminar titled "The Finance Bill 2026 Unveiled", organised by SMAC Advisory Services Limited at Gulshan Club in Dhaka on Sunday (14 June).

Speaking at the event, Foreign Investors' Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) President Rupali Chowdhury said the budget had been well received by investors.

"The budget is really welcome. We have seen a change in the government's mindset," she said.

However, she noted that several longstanding issues affecting businesses and investors remain unresolved and require immediate attention.

"Time is running out. The issues that still exist need to be resolved quickly," she said.

Referring to the imposition of supplementary duties and other tax measures, she said certain sectors, including the beverage industry, continue to face a growing tax burden.

She also stressed that attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) would require more than competitive labour costs.

"The ground reality for companies is still challenging. FDI will not come simply because of cheap labour," she said.

Dr M Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, said, "The biggest positive aspect of the budget is that it sends a good signal to businesses and taxpayers."

He warned that containing inflation would remain one of the government's most pressing challenges.

During the seminar, Snehasish Barua, director of SMAC Advisory Services Limited, outlined key changes proposed in the Finance Bill relating to income tax, value-added tax (VAT) and customs duties.

Zareen Mahmud Hosein, Sukanta Bhattacharjee, director of SMAC Advisory Services Limited, and senior officials of the National Board of Revenue (NBR) also spoke at the event.

Britain’s economy contracted in April as the Middle East war hit growth, official data showed Friday, dealing a setback to Prime Minister Keir Starmer as he grapples with a political crisis.

Gross domestic product fell 0.1 percent in April following growth of 0.3 percent in March, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement.

The reading matched analysts’ expectations and followed a stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter. Surging energy prices triggered by the war, which began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, have reignited inflationary pressures and threatened to derail growth.

“Before the conflict in the Middle East, growth was higher than expected and inflation was falling,” finance minister Rachel Reeves said in response to the figures.

“This is not a war we wanted or joined, but one that will have an impact at home,” she said.

The weak economic showing dealt a fresh blow to Starmer, who is facing calls to step down.

Britain’s defence and armed forces ministers quit Thursday in a row over military spending, further weakening Starmer’s authority just a week before a by-election that could prompt a bid to replace him.

Defence Secretary John Healey resigned warning that Starmer’s long-awaited Defence Investment Plan for funding over the next decade -- which the leader has yet to publish -- risked making Britain “less safe”.

“The effects of the conflict in the Middle East are now well and truly showing up in the economic data, and it isn’t pretty reading for the UK,” said Stuart Clark, portfolio manager at Quilter.

“We expect the economy to continue to fade as the year goes on, and particularly for as long as there is no lasting peace deal in the Middle East,” he added.

Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves have risen to $31.08 billion after the Asian Development Bank (ADB) disbursed $1 billion in budget support, according to a statement from the central bank issued today (14 June).

The funds, released as part of ADB's budget assistance for Bangladesh, were added to the country's foreign currency holdings, pushing the reserves to just over the $31 billion mark.

According to updated data from the Bangladesh Bank, reserves stood at $30.07 billion on 10 June.

The latest inflow from the Asian Development Bank resulted in a sharp increase over the weekend.

Officials said additional disbursements from other development partners are expected in the coming months, which could further strengthen the reserve position.

The entire Board of Directors of embroiled Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC, led by its new chairman, stands dissolved in a latest regulatory move aimed at safeguarding interests of the bank, its depositors and the public.Regional business directory

According to a statement issued Sunday, the central bank exercised its authority under Sections 45 and 47(3) of the Bank Company Act 1991 to cancel the appointments of all directors of the country's largest Shariah-based bank.

"The decision has been taken in the interest of the bank, depositors and overall public interest," says the Bangladesh Bank (BB) statement.

Under the Act, Mohammad Zahir Hossain, an Executive Director of the central bank, has been entrusted with exercising "all powers and carrying out all responsibilities of the Board of Directors".

A senior BB official told The Financial Express (FE) that Mr. Hossain will perform all functions and responsibilities of the Board of Directors until a new board is formed.

Earlier in the day, the Bangladesh Bank injected Tk 25 billion into the cash-strapped Islami Bank in a special loan to help mitigate its severe liquidity crunch after the Eid vacation.

This sum happens to be the first tranche of Tk 100 billion the Islamic lender last week sought in liquidity assistance from the banking regulator for overcoming the liquidity starvation, Islami Bank officials have said.

The central bank disbursed the financial support to the country's largest Shariah-based bank on Sunday, according to BB spokesperson Arief Hossain Khan.Personal finance e-book

The unconventional bank plunged into a severe trouble in terms of managing liquidity following days of unrest that erupted after the Eid-ul-Azha holiday over the appointment of its new chairman Md. Khurshed Alam.

A group of people who claimed to be clients of the bank started the protest on June 01 under the banner of 'Islami Bank Sachetan Grahok Forum (Islami Bank Conscious Customers' Forum)'.

The continuous agitation triggered panic among many of the depositors who keep withdrawing funds from the beleaguered bank.

As a matter of fact, Islami Bank's liquidity position deteriorated sharply in recent days, resulting in a struggle to meet growing withdrawal demands.

In spillover effect, the bank also reportedly failed to maintain the requisite Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) with the central bank.

Later in the day, a delegation from Islami Bank met BB governor Md. Mostaqur Rahman at the central bank headquarters briefing him on the bank's current liquidity situation.Investment guide

The delegation comprised Islami Bank's managing director (current charge), two additional managing directors, and six deputy managing directors.

Seeking anonymity, an Islami Bank official says they informed the central bank governor that the trend of cash withdrawal keeps intensifying, leading to the struggle.

Despite the crisis, they managed to settle the cash-withdrawing demand. "That's why we appealed for the central bank, the lender of the last resort."

About the cash withdrawals, the Islami bank official says they have observed the net volume of cash withdrawal having reached around Tk 12 billion a day in the last couple of days.

"And the governor, during the meeting, wanted to know how the bank is using the funds provided to the bank in the meeting and they informed him in detail."

The Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) is aiming to launch Bangladesh's first commodity exchange this year, with its Managing Director M Shaifur Rahman Mazumdar, saying the bourse could go live within three to four months once it receives the remaining regulatory approvals.

Speaking at a post-budget press conference held at the CSE conference hall today (14 June), Shafiqur said the exchange's technological infrastructure is fully ready and efforts to build market awareness are in their final stages.

"We could have launched the commodity exchange a year earlier had the government's thinking and the regulatory authorities' approach been aligned with our roadmap," he said.

Shafiqur added that the government's latest budget has explicitly mentioned the establishment of a commodity exchange alongside other infrastructure development initiatives, removing a major policy hurdle.

"We have already placed our proposals before the regulator. If the new regulatory authority approves the brokers and products we have proposed, we will be able to go live within three to four months," he said.

"We are hopeful that since government policy is now aligned with our programme, the commodity exchange will be launched within this year."

Commodity derivatives to be introduced first

Shafiqur clarified that the planned exchange would initially operate as a commodity derivatives platform rather than a spot market involving physical delivery of goods.

"There is a misconception that a commodity exchange means physically delivering commodities. In reality, there are two types of exchanges – spot exchanges, where physical delivery takes place, and derivatives exchanges, where futures and options contracts are traded," he said.

According to him, CSE plans to start by allowing the trading of commodity futures contracts, enabling investors, hedgers and participants across the commodity value chain to manage risks through a transparent marketplace.

Under futures trading, participants enter contracts by depositing margins, while the exchange's technology platform ensures real-time adjustment and risk management.

"Our objective is to provide a platform for price discovery, hedging and risk management," Shafiqur said.

What is commodity exchange

According to Shafiqur, a commodity exchange is a regulated marketplace where commodities or contracts linked to commodities are traded, much like shares are traded on a stock exchange.

These commodities can include precious metals such as gold and silver, agricultural products such as rice and wheat, and imported goods such as crude palm oil.

Commodity exchanges generally operate either as spot markets, where physical delivery of goods takes place, or as derivatives markets, where futures and options contracts are traded without the immediate exchange of the underlying commodity.

By enabling participants to discover fair prices, hedge against price volatility and manage risks, commodity exchanges help create more transparent and efficient markets.

They can also benefit producers, including farmers, by allowing them to secure prices for their products in advance, reducing uncertainty and distress sales.

Gold, silver and crude palm oil are proposed as initial products

CSE has proposed launching the platform with gold, silver and crude palm oil futures, considering them relatively straightforward products with internationally recognised pricing benchmarks.

"Gold and silver prices are globally available and well understood. Crude palm oil is an important product for Bangladesh. If we can successfully launch the platform with these products, we can gradually bring other essential commodities into the market," he said.

Shafiqur said agricultural products could eventually be incorporated into the exchange, creating opportunities for producers to secure prices for their goods months before harvest.

"If agricultural products are introduced, producers will be able to trade their future output in advance. Farmers would face less pressure to sell immediately after harvest and could better manage price risks," he said.

He added that any product introduced on the exchange would require approval from the regulator, ensuring appropriate checks and balances, particularly for sensitive commodities.

Farmers could benefit through guaranteed pricing

Shafiqur argued that commodity futures markets could strengthen farmers' bargaining power by allowing them to lock in prices before bringing products to market.

"If farmers can secure prices in advance, the pressure they currently face at the time of sale will reduce significantly," he said.

He cited rice as one of the agricultural products CSE may consider in the future if the initial phase proves successful.

Lessons from India's experience

Director Major (Retd) Emdadul Islam pointed to India's commodity exchange experience as an example of how organised markets can improve quality standards and pricing.

Referring to India's cotton sector, he said commodity exchanges helped organise producers, establish scientific storage facilities and ensure both quality assurance and fair prices.

"Farmers became assured of prices and quality, while users gained confidence that they would receive products of a certain standard," he said.

Emdadul noted that Bangladesh often experiences severe price volatility and post-harvest losses in agricultural products due to inadequate storage and fragmented markets.

"Many times farmers are forced to throw away products or sell at distress prices because they have no bargaining power," he said.

Emdadul added that a well-functioning commodity exchange could improve price transparency and reduce inefficiencies in markets ranging from agricultural goods to imported essentials such as edible oils.

"We are operating with an imperfect market serving 180 million people. A perfect market requires proper price discovery and advance certainty. Commodity exchanges can contribute to that process with the support of regulators and the government," he said.

The benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange climbed above the 5,600-point mark for the first time in more than nine months today (14 June), as investors responded positively to the post-budget policy environment and expectations of stronger economic conditions.

The DSEX gained 105 points, or 1.9%, to close at 5,625. The blue-chip DS30 index rose 47 points to 2,120, while the Shariah-based DSES advanced 14 points to 1,129.

Market turnover increased by 9.6% from the previous session to Tk1,358 crore. Of the issues traded, 246 advanced, 96 declined and 50 remained unchanged, reflecting broad-based buying interest across the market.

Analysts said investors welcomed a range of policy measures outlined in the budget, including support for private-sector growth, liquidity-enhancing initiatives and expectations of improving global economic conditions.

Demand strengthened across several major sectors, including banking, financial institutions, manufacturing and engineering, while rising turnover pointed to stronger participation from both institutional and retail investors.

However, market participants cautioned that sustaining the rally would depend on the effective implementation of policy measures, improved liquidity and continued structural reforms.

Akramul Alam, head of research at brokerage firm Royal Capital Ltd, said several positive factors contributed to the strong performance of the stock market on the day.

He said that although the budget did not offer direct incentives to investors, changes in taxation and measures viewed as unfavourable by dividend-focused investors had prompted a shift in investment strategies.

"As a result, many investors are reallocating their portfolios away from dividend-yielding stocks towards sectors with higher capital gain potential," he said, adding that this had increased buying pressure, particularly in banking, financial institutions and engineering stocks.

He also said the government's Tk60,000 crore rescue package for closed factories was expected to improve short-term liquidity in the market. "This injection is likely to increase the velocity of money, creating a more active trading environment and supporting overall market momentum," he said.

According to Akramul, plans to gradually shorten the settlement cycle from T+2 to T+0 have also strengthened investor confidence, as faster settlement is expected to attract more active traders and improve participation over time.

On the international front, he said easing tensions involving Iran and lower crude oil prices were positive developments for the global economy.

"If oil prices stabilise at normal levels, it would help control inflation in Bangladesh and ensure a more stable energy supply," he said.

Akramul added that buyers had outnumbered sellers for several weeks, indicating sustained accumulation and strong market momentum.

He also noted that the Tk2,500 crore liquidity support provided to Islami Bank had boosted the bank's share price, contributing to the rise in the benchmark index.

DSE Brokers Association President Saiful Islam said the health of the market should not be measured solely by movements in the index.

"The true strength of the stock market should not be judged only by the rise in the index, but by the level of investor confidence in the market," he said.

He said sustainable growth would depend on restoring and maintaining investor trust. If coordinated efforts by policymakers, regulators and market stakeholders continue, both turnover and the benchmark index could grow in a more stable and consistent manner.

Saiful also said several external economic indicators were turning favourable for Bangladesh, helping improve sentiment in the capital market.

He expressed hope that the domestic economy would strengthen gradually as broader macroeconomic conditions improved.

"If the underlying economic fundamentals continue to recover, the stock market will also benefit through higher participation, improved liquidity flow and reduced volatility," he said.

"Over time, this would help the market move towards greater stability and more balanced growth in both trading activity and index performance," he added.

In its daily market review, EBL Securities said the benchmark index of the capital bourse surpassed the 5,600-mark as favourable fiscal policy measures aimed at reviving private-sector growth and incentives for long-term capital market development bolstered investor confidence and fueled broad-based accumulation across the market.

The brokerage said the market remained firmly positive from the opening bell, with optimism driving sustained buying interest throughout the session and lifting share prices across most sectors.

General insurance stocks accounted for the largest share of turnover, contributing 15.4% of total market activity. The pharmaceutical and banking sectors followed, each accounting for 11.9%.

Most sectors finished higher. Financial institutions led the gains with a 4.4% rise, followed by banking stocks, which gained 3.3%, and information technology shares, which advanced 3.2%. The miscellaneous sector was the only major loser, declining by 3.5%.

Meanwhile, the rally extended beyond Dhaka, with the Chittagong Stock Exchange also ending higher. The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) rose 91.1 points, while the All Share Price Index (CASPI) gained 147.6 points, reflecting broad-based optimism across the country's two stock exchanges.

Gold prices have fallen sharply in 2026 despite a major conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, challenging the precious metal's traditional reputation as a safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical turmoil.

Prices have declined from a January peak of $5,303 per troy ounce to around $4,235, marking the lowest levels of the year even as tensions in the Middle East continue, says Al Jazeera.

Why is gold usually considered a safe-haven asset?

Investors often buy gold during periods of economic uncertainty, geopolitical conflict or inflation because it is viewed as a store of value that can preserve wealth when other assets come under pressure.

However, gold's performance can also be influenced by factors such as interest rates and the strength of the US dollar.

How has the conflict affected the economy?

The current economic environment has been shaped by the US-Israel war against Iran, which began in late February.

Iran's response has included blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and gas shipments. The disruption has driven energy prices higher and pushed US inflation to a three-year high of 4.2%.

Why has higher inflation not helped gold?

Although gold is often used as a hedge against inflation, investors are increasingly focused on the possibility of higher interest rates.

Gold is a non-yielding asset, meaning it does not pay interest or dividends. Investors earn returns only if its price rises.

When interest rates increase, assets that generate income become more attractive relative to gold. As a result, demand for the metal can weaken even during periods of elevated inflation.

What has changed in interest rate expectations?

Earlier in 2026, financial markets expected interest rate cuts.

Those expectations have shifted as inflation has remained elevated and the labour market has stayed resilient. Investors now see a 50% probability that interest rates could be raised by December.

The prospect of tighter monetary policy has increased pressure on gold prices.

What role does the US dollar play?

The conflict has strengthened the US dollar, creating another headwind for gold.

Because gold is priced in dollars, a stronger US currency makes the metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies. This can reduce demand and weigh on prices.

Analysts describe the current dynamic as a balance between inflation, which would normally support gold, and rising interest-rate expectations, which are currently exerting greater influence on the market.

What is the outlook for gold?

Gold prices have recovered slightly following reports of a potential agreement between the United States and Iran.

Market participants say a ceasefire could help ease inflationary pressures by reducing disruptions to energy markets. However, gold may continue to face challenges in the coming months as central banks respond to the recent surge in inflation and investors assess the future path of interest rates.

The government's proposed budget for the 2026-27 financial year (FY27) has been built on outdated economic assumptions that completely ignore the ongoing Middle East conflict.

The oversight has resulted in artificially depressed allocations for subsidies and public debt servicing, leaving key macroeconomic projections detached from current global and domestic realities, according to budget documents, discussions with government officials and independent analysts.

Despite a sharp increase in subsidy requirements following the escalation of conflicts involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, the government has proposed slashing subsidy allocations for FY27 to Tk89,538 crore. This represents a drop of over Tk19,000 crore—nearly 18%—compared to actual spending in FY25.

Similarly, the proposed allocation for public debt interest payments has been cut to Tk127,500 crore—roughly Tk9,000 crore lower than the FY25 expenditure—even though total public debt stock is projected to surge to Tk26.33 lakh crore by FY27.
Formulated on pre-war assumptions

Ministry of Finance sources revealed that the revised FY26 budget and FY27 projections rely on data approved back in November last year by the interim government's Coordination Council on Fiscal, Monetary and Exchange Rate Matters, chaired by then Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed.

Although the council met again in April after the BNP government took office in February, the projections were never updated to account for the Middle East crisis that erupted in late February.

The omission is explicitly acknowledged in a footnote within the Medium-Term Macroeconomic Policy Statement, released alongside the budget on 11 June:

"The projections presented are based on data covering July-November of FY2025-26 approved by the coordination council for the revised budget. As such, the effects of the Middle East conflict were not captured in the underlying data used for these estimates... As a result, some projections may, in retrospect, appear somewhat overstated when considered in more recent context and available information."

The conflict has severely disrupted regional energy markets, driving up global prices for oil, gas, coal, and fertiliser. Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury recently admitted that these surging import costs have already saddled the current fiscal year with an additional subsidy burden exceeding Tk42,600 crore.The conflict has also contributed to a renewed rise in inflation and weakened momentum in both imports and exports after earlier signs of improvement.

Questions over macroeconomic

forecastsEconomists and policy analysts have heavily criticised the ministry's ambitious growth, inflation, and credit targets, pointing out that they defy current trends.

According to official data, inflation rose to 9.42% in May, while average inflation during the first 11 months of FY26 stood at 8.63%. Despite this, the finance ministry projects inflation will fall to 7% by the end of the fiscal year and has forecast average inflation of 7.5% for FY27.

Similarly, export earnings recorded negative growth of 2.55% during the first 11 months of FY26. Nevertheless, the government expects export growth to reach 9.02% by the end of the fiscal year and has projected growth of 7.94% for FY27.

Bangladesh Bank data show private sector credit growth slowed to 4.75% in April. However, the finance ministry expects credit growth to accelerate to 8% by June and further to 9.42% in FY27.

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has openly questioned whether these targets are remotely achievable. CPD Executive Director Fahmida Khatun noted that the revised budget failed to ground itself in actual implementation progress.

"The projections and targets are unlikely to be achieved because they were formulated based on conditions that no longer exist," Dr Khatun told The Business Standard. "Many assumptions are entirely inconsistent with current realities."

Artificially compressed expenditure

Before the intensification of the Middle East conflict, softening global commodity prices and a weakening US dollar had kept Bangladesh's subsidy bill manageable. That window has closed, yet the budget reflects the opposite reality.

That situation has changed dramatically. Despite this, the proposed subsidy allocation for FY27 has been reduced compared with both actual spending in FY25 and revised estimates for FY26.

Government records show actual subsidy expenditure reached Tk108,673 crore in FY25. The revised allocation for FY26 has been estimated at Tk95,031 crore, while the proposed allocation for FY27 stands at Tk89,538 crore.

A similar pattern is evident in debt servicing.

The government spent Tk1,36,123 crore on interest payments in FY25, when total public debt stood at Tk21.44 lakh crore. Budget documents project public debt will increase to Tk26.33 lakh crore in FY27. Nevertheless, the proposed allocation for interest payments has been reduced to Tk127,500 crore.

Finance Division officials privately concede that if international commodity prices remain elevated or domestic energy tariffs are not hiked, actual subsidy requirements will wildly exceed the budget. They estimate that debt servicing alone will require an additional Tk15,000 crore over the current allocation.

Operating expenditure compressed

On paper, the government has managed to compress operating expenditure to 66.30% of total spending in FY27, down from 72.73% in the revised FY26 budget. Officials claim this reduction accommodates a 50% boost to the Annual Development Programme (ADP) and welfare initiatives, alongside a Tk33,812 crore block allocation for a new public sector pay scale.

Additional block allocations include Tk4,000 crore for unforeseen expenditure and Tk2,041 crore under other expenditure categories.

However, insiders suggest the numbers are a mathematical placeholder. One ministry official hinted that slow implementation of development projects and delays in the planned expansion of the 41-lakh Family Card welfare scheme will likely result in funds being quietly diverted later in the year to cover the inevitable overruns in subsidies and debt interest.

Neither the finance minister nor Finance Secretary Khairuzzaman Mozumder directly responded to questions from TBS at a post-budget press briefing regarding whether operating expenditure had been understated in the proposed budget.

The Dhaka bourse is set to shorten its trading settlement cycle from T+2 to T+1 by December this year, a move aimed at boosting trading volume.
FE

A committee comprising representatives of Bangladesh Bank (BB) and the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has already begun working to identify the changes needed for a smooth transition, said DSE Managing Director Nuzhat Anwar. The committee was formed after a DSE delegation met with the central bank's governor at his office.Bangladesh investment opportunities.Bangladesh economic report

The primary task in this transition will be to extend banking hours in alignment with the new settlement cycle.

"We are yet to declare any time to start the T+1 trading cycle. But we are optimistic that it will happen by December this year," Ms Nuzhat said, adding that things were moving positively with the cooperation of the central bank and that she did not see any major obstacle.

The securities regulator is also aware of the progress and will facilitate the introduction of the new settlement cycle by approving amendments to the trade settlement regulations, the DSE chief added.

At present, the DSE operates on a T+2 settlement cycle, which defines the time between when a trade is placed and when it is fully settled - that is, shares and cash transferred - through brokers, the exchange, banks and the depository authority, Central Depository Bangladesh Ltd (CDBL).

To illustrate, consider an investor who purchases shares on a Sunday through a broker under the T+2 cycle. The exchange receives the money from the buyer's broker on Monday through the banking system. The funds are then transferred to the seller's broker the following day, by which time CDBL transfers the shares into the buyer's beneficiary owner's (BO) account. Sunday trades are thus fully settled by Tuesday.

Under a T+1 cycle, the exchange would need to receive funds from the buyer's broker on the same day the shares are purchased. The funds would then be transferred to the seller's broker and the shares credited to the buyer the next day.

For this to work, extending banks' Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) hours is essential, as trades are not complete until funds are transferred by banks. Currently, banks settle funds until 4:00pm, a deadline that would need to be extended to accommodate the T+1 cycle - making the central bank's intervention crucial.

"One or two regulations might need changing too. That's not very difficult," Ms Nuzhat added.

Faster settlement will facilitate faster trade turnover. It is also one of the requirements Bangladesh must meet for its frontier market to be upgraded to emerging market status.Bangladesh investment opportunities

"If we consider competition for foreign investments, our competitors - bourses of other countries including those of India - have already made significant progress," Ms Nuzhat said.Market trend analysis

Ironing out risks in the T+1 settlement cycle

Executing trades within the T+1 cycle requires the exchange to receive funds from buyers' brokers on the day of purchase. However, there may be instances of delays in receiving cheques or in their encashment. In such cases, the buyer's broker will have to cover the funds, making capital adequacy a critical requirement for brokers to avoid any disruption in trade settlements.

Md. Ashequr Rahman, managing director of Midway Securities, emphasised the importance of broker capital adequacy for the smooth running of the T+1 cycle.

He also said the T+1 cycle should initially be applied only to stocks with high liquidity. Investors who typically put money into blue-chip stocks of the DS30 index tend to have sufficient funds and financial literacy.

"So, I think, the DSE should apply the T+1 cycle to the stocks in the DS30 index," Mr Rahman said, noting that India too had not introduced the T+1 cycle across all listed companies at once.

The finance minister, in his budget speech, stressed the need for capital market reforms, one of which would be a gradual shift in the settlement cycle from T+2 toward T+1 and eventually T+0.

A backlog of more than Tk5,000 crore in government reimbursements for remittance incentives has persisted for over nine months, putting pressure on commercial banks' liquidity and profitability.

Banks disburse a 2.5% cash incentive to expatriates on remittance inflows on behalf of the government and are later reimbursed through the central bank. However, bankers say the arrears continue to accumulate as these reimbursements remain unsettled.

According to available data, the outstanding amount stood at Tk4,000 crore in December 2025 and has since risen by a further Tk1,000 crore over the past six months. Ten banks alone account for Tk3,701 crore of the unpaid incentives as of June this year.

Liquidity strain and profit pressure

Bankers say they are funding the incentive payments from deposit mobilisations, which is restricting their ability to deploy funds in income-generating assets. As a result, a portion of deposits remains uninvested or is diverted from normal lending operations.

Speaking to TBS, they noted that banks typically use such funds in short-term government securities, where annual returns are estimated at around 10.20%. One private-sector banker said if Tk5,000 crore had been invested in one-year Treasury bills, banks could have earned about Tk383 crore in interest over nine months.

Instead, banks are reportedly financing costs, including deposit interest payments estimated at around Tk300 crore, without generating equivalent returns from the delayed reimbursement funds.

A senior policymaking official at a private bank said the mismatch between funding costs and delayed government payments is eroding profitability and may weaken banks' incentives to mobilise remittances in the coming months.

Rising burden on individual banks

A managing director of a private commercial bank said his institution alone is awaiting nearly Tk700 crore in reimbursement, which he said has significantly affected its liquidity planning and investment decisions. He added that timely payment would have reduced the need to fund incentives from deposits and could have allowed investment in Treasury bills at returns of around 10.20%.

Mohammad Ali, managing director of Pubali Bank, said the outstanding amount is currently recorded as an asset in accounting terms but does not generate income. He warned that prolonged delay could force banks to make provisions if repayment is not secured.

He estimated that full investment in Treasury bills could have generated over Tk500 crore annually in interest income for the banking sector.

Islami Bank Bangladesh, which channels the highest volume of remittance, holds an outstanding incentive claim of approximately Tk1,350 crore up to June.

System-wide concerns over remittance flows

Bankers said the rising volume of remittances has increased the government's incentive burden, while delays in reimbursement have worsened funding stress. They added that banks are increasingly reliant on deposit mobilisation to bridge the gap, putting pressure on balance sheets.

A senior treasury official said reimbursements were previously settled within a month, but are now being released roughly every three months, creating significant strain on liquidity management.

Another banker noted that earlier the scheme operated on an advance funding basis with quicker settlements, but delays have gradually increased over the past one and a half years.

Fiscal constraints and government borrowing

Bankers also linked the delays to broader fiscal pressures, noting that government revenue collection has weakened and borrowing from banks has increased. The government has set a borrowing target of Tk1,12,000 crore from the banking system in the upcoming fiscal year.

Central bank assurances

The issue was actively discussed at a recent bankers' meeting, where bank managing directors raised their concerns directly with central bank leadership.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman assured the top executives that the central bank would liaise with the finance ministry to ensure the outstanding dues are cleared within the current fiscal year. Industry insiders expect fund releases to begin in earnest in July.

When contacted, Bangladesh Bank spokesperson and Executive Director Arief Hossain Khan clarified that the matter falls under the purview of the fiscal authority rather than the central bank.

"Since the government is providing the subsidy, the funds will definitely come. There may be a delay, but there is absolutely no chance of non-payment," he said.

Omega’s Constellation watch has been flashed in campaigns, movies and at the Met Gala by stars like George Clooney and Nicole Kidman, turning it into a symbol of luxury and glamour. But with gold prices near record highs struck in January, some such classic watches are being melted down as the value of their metal content outstrips their resale worth.

Used models by the likes of Omega and LVMH’s TAG Heuer are most hit by the trend, according to Reuters interviews with over a dozen traders, industry experts, and investment advisers.

British dealer Jon White of Gold Traders melted down an 18-carat late-1970s Constellation in excellent condition in May, one of dozens of mainstream luxury watches he has had scrapped this year as demand for investment gold has risen.

“Beautiful watch. But in reality, had the customer consigned that to auction, what would they have achieved?” White, who also manages an auction house, told Reuters. The gold content of the Constellation watch, one of many models produced by Swatch-owned Omega, was worth £5,750 ($7,749), 35 percent more than its estimated £4,000-4,500 auction value, White said.

James Lamdin, founder of Watches of Switzerland’s second-hand unit Analog Shift, said melting was “primarily happening with contemporary pre-owned and also with older vintage watches that are not already collectible.”

Spokespersons for Swatch and Rolex said they would not comment for this story. LVMH, Richemont, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet did not respond to requests for comment.

LIQUID GOLD

Gold prices surged to a record $5,600 an ounce in January as geopolitical concerns and trade worries pushed investors towards safe-haven precious metals. Gold now hovers around $4,200 per ounce, almost double its 2024 average. The market price for used watches has not moved in the same way, however.

“I find it very sad, because obviously once something has been melted, it’s gone forever,” said Adrian Hailwood, a specialist in horological history.

There are no official figures showing how many luxury watches are being melted. World Gold Council data shows overall gold recycling in the first quarter rose 5 percent to 366 tonnes, while gold jewellery demand rose 31 percent in value to $47 billion.

Watches can hold anything from a sliver of gold to more than 200 grams, meaning their scrap value can run into tens of thousands of dollars. In an Omega Constellation, the gold can be found in the case and the strap.

With gold expected to reach between $5,400 and $6,300 an ounce this year, the pressure to dismantle some watches will continue, especially as traders that resell them must cover costs and the expense of providing a warranty. New watches that are over-produced might also be melted down.

“I’ve seen a lot of totally mediocre watches get melted down,” said Lamdin. “There’s a lot of unsold overstock in the Swiss market. And those watches are basically brand new, unworn, and they’re just getting stripped down... they made too many of them.”

“But when you have something that’s vintage and rare and has some story or some patina, that’s where it becomes a short-sighted tragedy.”

THE RESALE TRAP

High-end brands that tightly manage new production like privately owned Patek Philippe and Rolex command the highest premiums over melt value, three industry experts said.

For some models “the wait lists are astronomical. You’re talking anything from two to eight years,” said Simon Lazarus, head of PR and content at online luxury watch platform Chrono Hunter.

Rolex accounted last year for 61 percent of the sales value of new Swiss watches priced above 3,000 Swiss francs ($3,770), up from 57 percent in 2023 despite lower volumes, according to Vontobel.

Less exclusive brands like TAG Heuer, Breitling and Omega struggle to command high new retail prices, however, as buyers can buy a second-hand timepiece for much less. Models like Omega’s Speedmaster often depreciate sharply once sold, exposing them to scrapping, three experts said.

Higher gold prices motivated retired New York engineer Mitchell Talisman to sell two gold watches and a chain containing a combined 35 grams of gold with 58 percent purity for $2,660 cash in December.

“I’d had a bunch of stuff sitting in a safety deposit box for over 10 years,” he told Reuters.

For some owners however, the idea of selling a watch only for it to be melted by a dealer is too much to bear. “It may be a family piece, it may be their first watch,” said Hailwood. “They don’t like the idea of it being destroyed, so they keep it.”

Bangladesh’s revenue collection has grown more slowly than the economy over the past decade, indicating substantial untapped revenue potential, according to a recent analysis by the Finance Division.

The analysis showed that the country’s average revenue buoyancy -- a measure of how quickly government revenue grows relative to the economy -- stood at 0.93 between fiscal years 2014-15 and 2024-25.

A revenue buoyancy coefficient above 1 indicates that tax collection is outpacing economic growth, reflecting a highly efficient revenue system. Conversely, a coefficient below 1 suggests revenue growth is trailing economic expansion, often because of structural inefficiencies or a narrow tax base.

In its latest Medium-term Macroeconomic Policy Statement (MTMPS) for FY2026-27 to FY2028-29, published last week, the Finance Division said revenue buoyancy had been highly volatile, peaking at 2.10 in FY21 before plunging to 0.15 in FY22. The coefficient fell again to 0.60 in FY25.

“On average it stood at 0.93, indicating revenue growth has structurally lagged behind nominal GDP expansion,” the MTMPS said.

Nominal GDP grew by an average of 11.71 percent annually between FY21 and FY25. Over the same period, actual tax revenue expanded by an average of 11.4 percent
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, nominal GDP grew by an average of 11.71 percent annually between FY21 and FY25. Over the same period, actual tax revenue expanded by an average of 11.4 percent, the Finance Division said.

“This persistent trend indicates that revenue collection is not keeping pace with economic growth, revealing the existence of substantial untapped revenue potential,” the Finance Division said.

The division suggested a strategic shift towards digital integration and administrative reforms to align revenue mobilisation more closely with the nation’s trajectory towards a trillion-dollar economy.

The MTMPS also compared Bangladesh’s performance with neighbouring and peer countries in South and Southeast Asia, highlighting the country’s relatively weak revenue mobilisation.

While comparable emerging economies have expanded fiscal buffers alongside economic growth, Bangladesh continues to operate with a narrow revenue base and low collection efficiency, the report said.

The gap became more pronounced in 2025. Bhutan recorded a revenue-to-GDP ratio of 27.8 percent, followed by India at 21 percent, Myanmar at 20.3 percent, Nepal at 20 percent and Vietnam at 19.9 percent.

Bangladesh’s ratio stood at just 7.9 percent that year.

“This persistently low taxation level indicates that structural reform in taxation policy and administration is required so that taxes can be more efficiently collected from potential revenue sources.”

The MTMPS said a large traditional agricultural sector and an extensive informal economy outside the formal tax net continue to pose major challenges to effective tax administration.

“Also, the absence of tax administration-wide digitalisation and low tax morale make it very difficult for the tax administration to perform effectively.”

The report noted that revenue-to-GDP ratios in Pakistan, Cambodia and Sri Lanka also exceed Bangladesh’s, underscoring the scope for greater revenue mobilisation and the need to tap underutilised fiscal resources.

The MTMPS highlighted “a significant and persistent gap” between the number of Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) holders and actual income tax return filings.

Although the number of registered TIN holders rose to 1.2 crore in FY25, compliance remained weak. Only 46 lakh returns were filed, meaning nearly 62 percent of TIN holders failed to submit returns, resulting in a record compliance gap of 74 lakh taxpayers.

However, a positive shift is emerging in FY26, as mandatory online filing has driven a 24.3 percent increase in submissions as of March. The trend suggests that while systemic inertia persists, digital enforcement is becoming a key driver of improved compliance and a more disciplined tax culture.

The National Board of Revenue currently generates 88 percent of total tax revenue. Indirect taxes -- including VAT, supplementary duty, customs duty and other levies -- account for 65.6 percent of the NBR’s collections.

Direct taxes, led primarily by income tax, contribute the remaining 34.4 percent, underscoring the tax system’s continued reliance on consumption-based indirect taxation.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is counting on business expansion, a broader tax net, digitalisation and a harder crackdown on evasion to meet its proposed Tk 6.04 lakh crore revenue collection target for FY2026-27.

Speaking at an event on the proposed Finance Bill yesterday, NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan said businesses are passing through a tough time due to lingering impacts of wars and the pandemic.

“The government wants to raise tax collection and create more jobs by stimulating the economy, so NBR tried to address the problems of entrepreneurs,” he said at the programme organised by the Economic Reporters’ Forum in Dhaka.

The proposed target for NBR is about 20 percent higher than the current year’s original target of Tk 5.03 lakh crore, which was later revised to Tk 5.54 lakh crore.

The higher goal for FY27 arrives as the board is faced with a huge shortfall in the current year. Provisional NBR data shows the board collected Tk 3.27 lakh crore through April and needs another Tk 2.27 lakh crore by June 30 to meet its FY26 goal. NBR has failed to meet its goal for 14 consecutive years.

“We have taken many bold steps and we did not consider whether the step will reduce tax collection, but we thought whether it is justified,” the NBR chief said in response to a question regarding how the board will meet its target next year, especially considering the government has proposed tax exemptions for several sectors.

He said if businesses grow as expected, tax collection will rise across all fronts.

The board will simultaneously intensify its drive against leakages to ensure lower evasion, not just higher rates, drives collection growth, he added.

He cited the tobacco sector, the NBR’s single largest revenue source, as a concrete example.

The board plans to introduce “QR and AR codes” on every cigarette packet, allowing consumers to scan and verify whether tax has been paid.

The measure could yield an additional Tk 7,000 crore from the sector alone, he said, with the system to be gradually extended to other products.

On digitalisation, the NBR has simplified and moved the VAT submission process online and digitised corporate tax filing.

“So we will track everybody easily — whether anyone is evading tax,” the chairman said.

He added that by benchmarking against compliant taxpayers within each sector, the system will more readily flag those who are not.

For small and marginal VAT payers, the NBR is introducing a flat-rate VAT calibrated by area and business type, removing the need to maintain detailed accounts – a measure aimed at pulling informal traders into the net without burdening them with compliance costs.

Snehasish Barua, a partner at Snehasish Mahmud & Co, Chartered Accountants, welcomed the business-friendly measures in the budget but urged full implementation and further reductions in individual and corporate tax rates.

The proposed FY27 budget projects a total revenue collection of Tk 6.95 lakh crore, including the NBR’s target. Historically, revenue mobilisation has been one of the country’s weakest policy areas and Bangladesh’s tax-GDP ratio remains among the lowest in Asia.

The event was also addressed by ERF President Doulot Akter Mala, NBR first secretaries Jafar Imam and Md Tarek Hasan, among others.

The government has announced a series of tax incentives for semiconductor and chip-related activities in a bid to develop a domestic ecosystem for the high-tech industry and create skilled jobs.

In his budget speech for FY2026-27 on Thursday, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury proposed exempting regulatory duty, supplementary duty, value added tax (VAT) and advance tax on raw materials used in semiconductor or chip design, testing and packaging until June 30, 2031. A 1 percent import duty will still apply on such imports.

The proposal is a part of a broader effort to strengthen the country’s capacity in advanced technologies and diversify its export base.

The finance minister said Bangladesh produces a large number of engineering graduates each year, and that many Bangladeshi professionals already work in the global semiconductor industry.

He said the government has proposed the incentives for the sector “to harness their talent, create high-skilled employment and promote export-oriented growth”.

The budget also set out plans to establish specialist laboratories for artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors, robotics, machine learning and big data analytics.

It also outlined initiatives to strengthen national capacity in space research, semiconductor technology, and earthquake and seismographic research.

The government pledged continued support for researchers through the Science and Technology Fellowship Trust, saying investment in research and innovation would be critical to developing new technologies and preparing young people for the demands of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Industry stakeholders welcomed the move, saying the incentives could help attract investment in chip design, testing and packaging services, areas where Bangladesh already has a modest presence.

MA Jabbar, president of the Bangladesh Semiconductor Industry Association (BSIA), welcomed the proposed incentives, saying the industry had long engaged with policymakers to secure support.

“We have 21 member companies already invested in the local semiconductor sector,” he said. “We met officials from the National Board of Revenue and later the finance minister to explain the need for policy support.”

According to Jabbar, the country has strong potential to develop a skilled semiconductor workforce, particularly in chip design and related services.

“So far, we have trained around 1,200 semiconductor engineers and expect to develop another 3,000 within the next two years,” he said.

While the country has yet to enter semiconductor manufacturing, local firms have established a foothold in chip design, a key segment of the global semiconductor value chain.

“Our current focus is design. We are also working to establish testing laboratories to gradually move towards manufacturing,” Jabbar said.

He noted that the expanding global semiconductor market presents opportunities for countries able to supply skilled talent and specialised services.

“If we are to capture a share of this market, policy support must continue. The incentives announced in the budget are a positive step,” he said.

Jabbar added that sustained support could generate high-skilled jobs, boost exports and attract foreign investment. “There is considerable potential for foreign direct investment in this industry. But first, we must build the ecosystem and strengthen the sector domestically.”

In a statement, BSIA welcomed the fiscal and policy support for the semiconductor sector, saying it formally recognises activities such as IC design, electronic design automation (EDA), outsourced semiconductor assembly and testing (OSAT), packaging and fabrication within customs, tariff and VAT frameworks.

The association said exemptions from customs duty, regulatory duty, supplementary duty, VAT and advance tax on eligible inputs would lower costs, help attract investment, create skilled jobs and strengthen the country’s position in the global semiconductor and deep tech industries.

Syed Almas Kabir, president of the Bangladesh Association of Software and Information Services (BASIS), described the incentives as a strategic step towards high-value technology manufacturing.

“The incentives are timely and aligned with global industry trends. However, their success will depend not only on tax benefits but also on the ability to develop skilled talent, strengthen infrastructure and foster industry-academia collaboration,” he said.

According to Kabir, the tax relief for chip design, testing and packaging aligns policy support with the growing engineering talent base. “The real impact will come when these measures are backed by investment in advanced laboratories, stronger university-industry partnerships and a dedicated VLSI talent pipeline,” he added.

He said countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia built successful semiconductor industries by developing complete ecosystems rather than relying solely on incentives.

Kabir also highlighted the potential role of the Bangladeshi diaspora, many of whom work at leading global companies including TSMC, Intel, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, AMD and Synopsys. A structured programme to engage these professionals, he said, could significantly accelerate the country’s semiconductor capabilities.

Every budget tells a story. Some focus on spending, some on growth and some on reform. Bangladesh’s proposed fiscal framework for FY2026-27 tells a different story: one of widening the tax net, tightening compliance and pushing taxpayers, both individual and corporate, into a more transparent and increasingly digital ecosystem. At first glance, some changes appear taxpayer-friendly. The advance income tax threshold for individuals has been raised from Tk 6 lakh to Tk 10 lakh, offering breathing space for salaried professionals and small entrepreneurs battling inflation. The government has also introduced incentives for timely return filing. Those filing by September will receive a 5 percent rebate, while delays beyond December will attract penalties. Tax compliance is no longer just about how much one pays, but also when.

But beneath these relief measures lies a far stronger enforcement framework. One of the most significant changes is the expansion of audit requirements. All companies must now submit audited financial statements along with an income computation sheet certified by a chartered accountant. Firms, associations of persons and Hindu undivided families with turnover above Tk 10 crore or capital exceeding Tk 5 crore will also fall under mandatory audit, while other entities will need certification from a CA, CMA or tax lawyer. Accounting records must also be preserved in line with company law requirements, effectively for up to 12 years for many companies.

Corporate tax rates remain largely unchanged, but with a meaningful twist. While standard rates stay at 27.5 percent for private companies and 22.5 percent for publicly traded ones, companies conducting all transactions through banking channels will enjoy reduced rates of 25 percent and 20 percent, respectively. This is formalisation by incentive.

The budget also takes a stricter position on tax deducted at source (TDS). Failure to deduct, collect or deposit withholding tax will trigger recovery of the shortfall, a 50 percent penalty and even disallowance of the related expenditure. Since TDS locks up working capital while refunds take months, the promise of electronic refunds within 120 days for certain self-assessed returns is welcome, provided implementation follows. Minimum tax remains a concern. The 1 percent levy on gross receipts stays unchanged, meaning companies will continue paying tax even in loss-making years. Tax disputes are becoming costlier. An appeal before the Commissioner (Appeals) will now require payment of 1 percent of the disputed tax demand. There is relief at the tribunal stage, however, where the pre-deposit has been reduced from 10 percent to 3 percent.

The capital market faces its own recalibration. Listed companies, excluding banks and financial institutions, must distribute at least 30 percent of after-tax profits as dividends or face additional tax. Stock dividends will attract a 10 percent tax, while capital gains tax on securities has been halved from 10 percent to 5 percent. These measures may reshape dividend policy and investor expectations, while the lower gains tax could improve market participation.

Unpaid interest claimed as a business expense for three years will now be treated as taxable income, and related-party loans below 12 percent interest may trigger deemed income adjustments. On the VAT side, reverse-charge VAT on imported services has widened, raising costs for foreign software, cloud platforms, consultancy and digital advertising. VAT audits now have clear timelines: documents within two months of notice, extendable by one month, with the audit completed within a year. The VAT appeal structure also imposes pre-deposit requirements at successive stages.

Foreign digital businesses with more than 100,000 users in Bangladesh may now fall within the tax net. TIN will be required for most bank accounts, and BIN for loans, utility connections and trade licence renewals. Cigarette, brick and gold prices may rise, while exporters gain relief through lower TDS on subsidies. The message is unmistakable: Bangladesh is moving towards a data-driven tax culture. For taxpayers, compliance itself has become a financial strategy.

The Bangladesh Small and Cottage Industries Corporation (BSCIC) industrial estate in Sherpur is grappling with poor infrastructure, inadequate utility services and security concerns, with entrepreneurs warning that the problems are discouraging investment and constraining industrial growth.

Established in 1987 on 15 acres in the Nouhata area, the estate began allocating plots in 2000. It now comprises 107 plots and 33 industrial units. Of these, 28 are operational and four are under implementation.

Although the estate currently employs around 700 workers, stakeholders say the figure could rise severalfold if all units became fully operational.

Business owners say unreliable utility services remain one of the biggest obstacles to growth.

“Gas shortages have disrupted production and prevented the estate from developing as expected,” said Fazle Nazim Parvez, proprietor of Modina Food and Beverage.

Md Kamal Hossain, proprietor of Taj Bread and Biscuit Factory, said the roads within the estate are narrow and in poor condition, with no alternative access route. He added that the drainage system also requires urgent improvement.

Security has emerged as another major concern. The estate has operated for nearly four decades without a boundary wall, leaving it vulnerable to criminal activity.

“Security is a major concern at the estate. The roads here become unsafe after evening. Although there are streetlights, they are not enough. Without a boundary wall, the area has become a haven for muggers and drug users,” said a factory owner, who requested anonymity.

Entrepreneurs have called for the construction of a boundary wall and main gate, the installation of adequate lighting and CCTV cameras, and the establishment of a permanent police check post or camp instead of occasional patrols.

They have also demanded better roads, improved drainage and a lasting solution to the gas crisis.

Businesspeople said several factories that once employed hundreds of workers shut down within a decade because of these concerns. They also blamed inadequate monitoring and support from the authorities for the closure of many units.

According to entrepreneurs, the unfriendly business environment, weak security and chronic gas shortages are deterring potential investors.

“I run businesses in several districts and had planned to establish a food-processing factory in the area. However, because of inadequate gas supply and security concerns, I have not been able to proceed, despite the availability of relatively cheap labour,” said another entrepreneur, also requesting anonymity.

Stakeholders said small industries in the area are not expanding as expected. Even after nearly four decades, they argue, the estate has yet to develop into a major industrial and employment hub and still lacks large-scale industries.

Md Anamul Haque, estate officer of BSCIC, said the estate has dedicated electricity and water supply systems, but frequent power cuts continue to disrupt production.

He added that although gas connections were provided to seven industrial units in 2008, supply interruptions and low gas pressure remain persistent problems. Many factories are still without gas connections, further hampering production.

Regarding complaints about the boundary wall, Md Ataur Rahman Fakir, deputy manager of BSCIC in Sherpur, said a lack of funding has caused the long delay in its construction.

Regular consultation meetings are held with entrepreneurs to discuss their concerns and explore the estate’s potential, he added.

Fakir said that issues such as new gas connections, low gas pressure and the establishment of a police camp have been raised with higher authorities, and efforts are underway to support existing businesses and attract new entrepreneurs.

SpaceX shares jumped 19 per cent in their Nasdaq debut on Friday, sending the company's value past $2 trillion to make it the sixth-biggest US company by value and turning Elon Musk into the world's first trillionaire.

Investors jumped at the ​chance to get a piece of Musk's sprawling empire spanning rockets, satellites and AI after the record-setting $75 billion IPO. More than 510 million shares worth about $84 billion changed hands, even though SpaceX is ‌currently unprofitable and generated only a fraction of the revenue brought in by similarly valued tech giants.

The launch was smoother than many observers expected, with trading kicking off late on Friday morning without the hiccups that had marred Facebook's debut in 2012. SpaceX shares ended the day at $160.95 a share to bring its value to $2.1 trillion. The gain pushed SpaceX's market value past Broadcom, with Amazon next in line at $2.6 trillion.Market trend analysis

The trade capped off a lead-up fraught with anxiety over the Nasdaq exchange's ability to handle the launch, particularly after a recent ​swoon in technology shares raised concerns about stratospheric gains in AI-linked names. Mega-listings from AI heavyweights Anthropic and OpenAI are waiting in the wings.

Investors across the spectrum, from large institutions to retail fans of Musk, ​ended the day euphoric.

"For many investors, SpaceX is the closest thing to investing in the railroads during the Industrial Revolution and they are willing to pay the Elon Musk ⁠premium for that opportunity," said Seth Hickle, chief investment officer at Mindset Wealth Management in Indianapolis.

Analysts and portfolio managers said investors should brace for volatility, particularly early in SpaceX's life as a public company, due to its small relative ​float and high valuation. SpaceX's $18.7 billion in revenue gives the company a price-to-revenue ratio of roughly 112, far above other megacap stocks.

"The question remains is, what happens in a couple of weeks from now. Right now, people want to ​bid the stock higher because it's a winner at this point. Whether it stays that way, that remains to be seen," said Todd Schoenberger, chief investment officer at Crosscheck Management in Washington, DC.

Retail investors received about 20 per cent of the allocation, far more than the typical IPO, with some even celebrating an allocation of one share.

SpaceX executives, including President Gwynne Shotwell and Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen, celebrated at the Nasdaq market site in New York's Times Square after ringing the opening bell on Friday. Musk held a separate event for ​employees in Texas.Personal finance e-book

'ALMOST SURREAL'

The IPO is a culmination of Musk's long-held ambitions in space and technology, and has stood out for rewriting Wall Street's IPO playbook and drawing legions of retail investors into the market.

“Elon deserves an extreme premium because of ​his track record and his vision for calling technology trends early," said Shaun Maguire, a Sequoia Capital partner who has led the firm's $2 billion investment in SpaceX. Sequoia Capital's investment is worth over $20 billion at the IPO price, a person familiar with the ‌matter told Reuters.

At $75 ⁠billion, the IPO's proceeds were more than double those of Saudi Aramco's record-setting 2019 IPO.

SpaceX's valuation could rise further should underwriters exercise their right to sell additional shares, a decision typically made within 30 days after the offering.

“Seeing the company that I joined when it was just some sketches on paper become this valuable is almost surreal," said Tom Mueller, a founding SpaceX employee who spent 18 years at the company and a shareholder, who is now CEO of Impulse Space, a spacecraft startup.

An estimated 4,000 current or former SpaceX employees will become millionaires based on the value of their SpaceX shares, according to Hill.com.Business strategy consulting

Although SpaceX's lack of profitability makes it ineligible to join the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab, its expected fast-track inclusion ​in the Nasdaq 100 will soon make it a major ​holding for passive funds and ETFs that track ⁠the index, creating a fresh source of demand for its shares.

It will take about a month before SpaceX gets added to that index under Nasdaq's new fast-entry rules, as opposed to a typical wait of as much as a year.

Some analysts expect SpaceX's debut to trigger a reshuffling of investor portfolios, creating selling pressure on other technology heavyweights as ​funds rotate into the stock. On Friday, shares of other space firms and satellite companies declined sharply, with Planet Labs down 9 per cent and EchoStar down 11 per cent.

SpaceX said its ​market opportunity spans $28.5 trillion, a figure ⁠it called the largest in human history. With its leading position in space - the firm says its operation is responsible for more than four-fifths of the mass launched into orbit over the past three years - and revenues from Starlink, some investors said it has a strong foundation upon which to build.

Some analysts have already issued positive ratings on the company, but Morningstar analysts this month said it is more fairly valued at around $780 billion, and CFRA on Friday started coverage with a sell rating.

"This ⁠is not a ​name you're buying based on fundamentals. For me, the analogy is Amazon. This was a company that changed the way we live," said Nancy ​Tengler, CEO and CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments.