State-owned Biman Bangladesh Airlines is set to sign another multibillion-dollar agreement with European aerospace giant Airbus by 31 August to purchase 10 aircraft, adding a second major order to its recent $3.7 billion deal with US manufacturer Boeing.

"The government has decided to proceed with the acquisition of 10 Airbus aircraft," State Minister for Civil Aviation and Tourism M Rashiduzzaman Millat told The Business Standard. "We hope to sign the agreement by 31 August."

"However, the Airbus aircraft will not be delivered immediately. Deliveries are expected to begin from 2031. Therefore, until the new aircraft arrive, we will have to strengthen the fleet by leasing aircraft," he added.

Millat said details of the procurement, including the price and other terms and conditions, would be disclosed after the agreement is finalised, adding that negotiations are going on.

Talks advance at Farnborough Airshow

The proposed deal gained momentum at the Farnborough International Airshow 2026 in the United Kingdom, where Airbus and Biman officials met yesterday to discuss the timeline for signing the agreement, according to Airbus sources.

"The meeting at the Farnborough Airshow discussed the progress of the proposed agreement and the next steps in the timeline," an Airbus spokesperson based in South Asia told TBS.

He said the national flag carrier had sent a letter to Airbus this week expressing its intention to sign the agreement by 31 August.

"This is the first time we have received a clear commitment from Biman," the spokesperson said.

Biman Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Kaizer Sohel Ahmed, accompanied by four senior officials from flight operations, engineering and corporate planning, travelled to the UK on 19 July to attend the airshow.

Airbus Vice President Edward Delahaye also recently met Civil Aviation and Tourism Minister Afroza Khanam, State Minister Millat and senior Biman officials in Dhaka to advance discussions on the proposal.

Fleet expansion plans

The proposed purchase comes as the government reviews a long-term roadmap to expand Biman's fleet to 47 aircraft by the fiscal 2034-35 as part of efforts to modernise the flag carrier, strengthen international connectivity and establish Bangladesh as a regional passenger and cargo hub.

Biman currently operates 19 aircraft, 14 of which are manufactured by Boeing. With the addition of the Boeing and Airbus orders, the fleet would expand to 43 aircraft.

Because neither manufacturer is expected to deliver new aircraft before 2030, Biman plans to lease 10 aircraft by next year to address its fleet shortage.

Industry insiders said Bangladeshi airlines are expanding their fleets in anticipation of rising passenger demand and additional capacity following the expected opening of Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport's Third Terminal later this year.

Board approval still pending

Although the government has publicly expressed its interest in purchasing Airbus aircraft, the deal still requires internal corporate and government approvals, according to Airbus.

"Although Biman's Board had earlier given policy approval on certain aspects, the issue of the down payment has not yet been finalised. Therefore, the proposal will have to be placed before the Board again before the agreement can be signed," the Airbus spokesperson said.

He added that advance payments are standard international practice in aircraft procurement, with around 1% of the total contract value typically paid upfront, although the amount may vary depending on negotiations.

Biman acting spokesperson Md Mohiuddin confirmed that the government approval process is underway.

Asked about the price of the aircraft, the Airbus spokesperson said: "We cannot make the price public because of legal obligations. However, the customer may disclose it after the agreement is signed."

According to aviation news portal Simple Flying, Airbus's flagship A350-900 wide-body aircraft had a list price of $317.4 million in late 2023, while the larger A350-1000 was listed at $366.5 million. The A320ceo carried a list price of $101 million, while the A320neo was priced at $110.6 million.

Airbus revises proposal

According to Airbus and Biman sources, the European manufacturer has revised its proposal, reducing its earlier offer from 14 aircraft to 10 following Biman's agreement with Boeing in April.

The latest proposal, submitted to Biman's techno-finance committee, includes four A350-900 wide-body aircraft and six A321neo narrow-body jets.

The revised offer comes less than three months after Biman signed a $3.7 billion agreement with Boeing on 30 April to purchase 14 aircraft, including eight Boeing 787-10 Dreamliners, two Boeing 777-9 aircraft and four Boeing 737 MAX aircraft.

Airbus and Boeing have competed for a place in Biman's future fleet for several years, attracting considerable diplomatic and commercial interest from both the United States and Europe.

Debate over a mixed fleet

Former Civil Aviation Authority of Bangladesh chairman Air Vice Marshal (retd) M Mafidur Rahman said he supports a mixed fleet comprising both Boeing and Airbus aircraft.

According to Rahman, reliance on a single manufacturer exposes airlines to operational risks if one manufacturer's aircraft encounter technical or regulatory problems.

However, he cautioned that operating aircraft from two manufacturers would increase maintenance costs, training requirements and technical complexity.

"A mixed fleet certainly involves additional costs. But with proper planning, it also offers strategic advantages. The most important thing is that Biman prepares a comprehensive commercial and operational plan so that the government and the public clearly understand the benefits expected from this investment," he said.

Rahman added that Biman has significant opportunities to expand revenue and strengthen its international competitiveness, but that achieving those goals would require professional management, policy continuity and a long-term strategy.

Europe's long campaign

Industry insiders said Airbus scaled back its original proposal as part of a strategic effort to remain competitive in Bangladesh's long-term fleet expansion programme.

The company had earlier proposed supplying 14 aircraft, including 10 A350 wide-body jets and four A320neo narrow-body aircraft.

Diplomats from France, the United Kingdom and Germany have repeatedly encouraged Bangladesh to consider Airbus aircraft as part of a balanced procurement strategy.

Airbus's campaign gained momentum in 2023 following French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Bangladesh and references in the Bangladesh-UK Joint Statement to the possible acquisition of 10 Airbus A350 aircraft, including freighters.

On 4 November last year, the ambassadors and high commissioners of France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union publicly urged Biman to diversify its Boeing-heavy fleet, arguing that a more balanced mix would improve operational resilience and competitiveness.

According to people familiar with the matter, at least two high-level meetings involving European envoys and senior officials from Bangladesh's aviation sector were held this month to discuss the proposal.

TSMC is seeing strong, multi-year demand for its AI chips as it invests a further $100 billion to expand its Arizona facilities,

but it needs to address several challenges, such as a shortage of construction workers there, a top executive said.
Speaking after blockbuster second-quarter results on Thursday, Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang said the company is “very happy” with progress in Arizona,which is why it decided to ramp up investment to $265 billion.“We will continue to invest,” he said in an interview, adding that the company was very grateful for US government support.“We continue to see customers’ strong demand — multi-year structural demand.”The world’s main producer of advanced AI chips and a major Nvidia supplier, TSMC’s aggressive capital spending and soaring profit marginshave made it a barometer of demand in the global semiconductor industry.

The pledge to expand in Arizona is a win for US President Donald Trump, who has pushed for more chipmaking at home.

Trump has repeatedly accused Taiwan of stealing American semiconductor business.

He has said that by the time he leaves office, the US will have 50 percent of the world’s semiconductor manufacturing capacity.

ARIZONA FABS

TSMC’s first Arizona fabrication plant — or fab — is operational and achieving yields “as good as” the flagship fab in Taiwan, Huang said.

The second fab will shortly begin moving in equipment, while construction of a third fab is under way

and preparatory work has started on a fourth fab and the site’s first advanced packaging facility, Huang said.

In total, current and planned projects will bring TSMC’s Arizona footprint to 12 fabrication and advanced packaging facilities plus an R&D centre.

He did not provide a timeline for the latest investment.

However, “there are physical constraints — the number of construction workers available, the infrastructures available,” Huang said.

“We’ll work closely with the government to solve these issues.”

At the same time, TSMC continues to invest at home, where it is building 13 leading-edge and advanced packaging fabs over the next several years.
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“Land is a scarce resource in Taiwan,” Huang said.

“Therefore, whenever there are available lands, we will use them for the most leading-edge technologies.”

“When you ramp the most leading-edge technologies, you need very close collaboration between the R&D and operation functions,” he added.

“It has to be in Taiwan. And after it stabilizes, then we can consider transferring overseas.”

BOND ISSUANCE

Asked if the company would consider raising money by selling new shares in the US, Huang said it would “not rule out issuing new bonds”

if market conditions are favourable.

Despite its aggressive expansion plans, TSMC faces headwinds from geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing,

with the US seeking to control advanced chip exports to China.

Reuters reported last year that TSMC could face a penalty of $1 billion or more to settle a US export control investigation

over a chip it made that ended up inside a Huawei AI processor.

Huang referred questions about the status of the case and any potential penalty to the US government,

but said TSMC’s internal export control system was constantly being reviewed.

“I have to say there is (only) so much we can do in terms of complying with all the rules and regulations,

but when the customers sell to customers, they sell to customers,” he said.

“At some point in time, you lose the visibility. That’s the reality.”

Investors worries about the sustainability of the AI boom amid massive infrastructure spending has re-emerged recently.

TSMC’s Taipei-listed shares fell 7.3 percent on Friday despite the company’s record results.

Even so, its shares remain up nearly 50 percent this year.

While TSMC has long been by far the market leader in making the world’s most advanced chips, competitors are seeking to narrow the gap, including Samsung Electronics, which has benefited from a recovery in the memory chip market,and Intel, which enjoys backing by the US government.

Huang said the company remains confident in its business model.

“We do not intend to leave anything on the table,” he said.

“Our competitors are good, but we are even better.”

Reporting by Wen-Yee Lee and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Kevin Buckland

Bangladesh's GDP growth slowed to 2.22% year-on-year at constant prices in the third quarter (January-March) of FY2025-26, down from 4.53% in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year.

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) released the third-quarter GDP estimates for FY26 today (20 July).

According to the quarterly data, the economy grew by 4.96% and 3.03% in the first and second quarters of FY26, respectively, compared with 3.91% and 3.53% in the corresponding quarters of the previous fiscal year.

At current prices, the size of the economy reached Tk15.391 trillion in the third quarter of FY2025-26, up from Tk14.192 trillion in the same quarter a year earlier.

BBS data show that growth slowed across all three major sectors – agriculture, industry and services – compared with the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Agricultural sector growth declined to 1.74% in the third quarter, from 4.61% a year earlier. The sector had grown by 2.11% and 3.68% in the first and second quarters of the current fiscal year, compared with -0.12% and 1.90% in the corresponding quarters of FY2024-25.

The industrial sector recorded negative growth of 0.28% in the third quarter, a sharp reversal from 3.33% growth in the same period last year. However, the sector had expanded by 6.82% and 1.27% in the first and second quarters of FY2025-26, compared with 4.80% and 5.78% in the corresponding quarters of the previous fiscal year.

Growth in the services sector slowed to 3.52% in the third quarter from 7.32% a year earlier. During the first and second quarters of the current fiscal year, the sector grew by 4.51% and 4.45%, compared with 4.49% and 5.84%, respectively, in the same quarters of FY2024-25.

Economists said the slowdown across all three major sectors in the third quarter, particularly the contraction in industry, signals growing concerns for the economy.

Dr Sayema Haque Bidisha, professor of economics at the University of Dhaka, said it would be inappropriate to draw policy conclusions based on GDP growth data from a single quarter.

"Quarterly growth figures are heavily influenced by the base effect – the level of growth recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. If growth was unusually high or low in the base period, the current year's growth rate may appear disproportionately different. Therefore, one quarter's data alone should not be used to assess the overall state of the economy," she said.

Bidisha added that the broader economic context of the January-March quarter should also be considered.

"National elections were held during this period, which may have affected normal economic activity and, consequently, GDP growth," she said.

However, she identified the negative growth in the industrial sector as the most worrying development.

"This is a warning signal for the economy and calls for prompt policy intervention. While very high agricultural growth is not expected, post-election changes in supply chains may also have had some impact," she said.

According to Bidisha, the performance of the industrial sector in the April-June quarter will be crucial. "If growth remains weak, major policy and strategic measures will be needed to revive the sector, as industrial growth is directly linked to employment, industrialisation and the country's overall economic expansion," she said.

Bangladesh's economic growth was on a slide as the latest official count found it 2.22 per cent in the third quarter of the just-past fiscal year, in a headlong fall from 4.53 per cent estimated in the same period of previous fiscal.Maps

The primary driver behind this significant deceleration is a contraction in the industrial sector, alongside cooled growth across agriculture and services, official data showed on Monday.

The drastic fall in the industrial growth in January-March has affected the economic-growth momentum of the country as Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in its provisional estimation has recorded a negative 0.28-percent rate.

In the same period of the previous fiscal year (FY2025), the industrial growth was recorded at 3.33 per cent as per the BBS data.

The latest figure marks a continuing downward trajectory for the just-concluded FY2026, following a 4.96-percent growth in the first quarter and 3.03-percent growth in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, in its provisional estimation, BBS had recently shown Bangladesh's GDP could grow at a 4.14-percent rate in the past fiscal year in an upturn from a slower 3.49 per cent in the previous year (FY2025).

Analysts say the slower growth in the Q3 last fiscal may hamper the achievement of the 4.14-percent overall annual GDP growth.

According to the statistical bureau, the industrial sector experienced a negative growth of -0.28 per cent in the third quarter at constant prices, comparing poorly to the 3.33-percent growth recorded during the third quarter of FY2024-25.

Within this vital sector, manufacturing growth dipped into negative territory, to 0.34 per cent, while utility sectors like electricity, gas, and water supply experienced a deeper contraction to -3.56 per cent.

This industrial slump severely impacted the overall economic output during the January-March period.

Other key pillars of the economy also registered slower growth. The services sector, which historically carries a heavy weight in the country's GDP, grew 3.52 per cent in the third quarter of FY2026.

While this remains the strongest performing macro-sector for the quarter, it represents a steep decline from the robust 7.32-percent expansion seen in the same quarter in the previous FY2025.

Similarly, the agricultural sector recorded a growth of 1.74 per cent in Q3 FY2026. Though positive, yet this is a sharp reduction from the 4.61-percent growth achieved in the 3rd quarter of FY2025, the BBS data showed.

In nominal terms, the estimated size of the Q3 GDP at current prices reached Tk 15.391 trillion, up from Tk 14.192 trillion in the corresponding period of FY2024-25.

At current prices, the sectoral share of the economy during this quarter was led by the services sector with 54.63 per cent, followed by the industrial sector at 35.51 per cent, and agriculture at 9.86 per cent.

Analysts point out that the negative growth in industrial sectors and utilities reflects ongoing constraints in domestic production, energy-supply challenges, and shifting demand dynamics.

A rebound in momentum in manufacturing in the final quarter of the fiscal year just gone by would need "targeted policy interventions", they felt.

In a press release today, the national standards body said the products were found to contain excessive preservatives, harmful microorganisms or other deviations from prescribed quality standards.

According to BSTI, Fresh Garden Agro Resources' mango pickle contained preservative levels above the permitted limit.

The Bellisimo Rotondo Hazelnut Coated Chocolate ice cream, produced by Kazi Food Industries Ltd, was found to contain total milk solids-not-fat above the level specified under the Bangladesh Standards.

Laboratory tests also detected harmful microorganisms in Olive Bangladesh Ltd's Labannya Milk Skin Lotion, Aloe Vera Skin Lotion, Olive and Labannya Facewash Moringa+Matcha, Foaming Milk & Tulsi, and Labannya Aloe Vera Shampoo.

Meanwhile, Dekko Foods Limited's Dekko Fruit Funda soft drink powder in Mango and Orange variants was found to contain less vitamin C than required under the Bangladesh Standards.

BSTI said the companies concerned have already been notified of the test results and instructed to suspend the production, sale and distribution of the affected products until their licences are renewed or reapproved.

The companies have also been directed to immediately withdraw the products from distributors, dealers, retailers and the market.

BSTI said it would closely monitor compliance with the directive and take legal action under existing laws if any company fails to comply.

The standards body said maintaining product quality in line with national standards is both a legal and ethical obligation for licensed manufacturers.

It added that administrative and legal measures would be taken against companies that fail to meet these requirements in order to protect consumers and safeguard the public interest.

BSTI Director General (Secretary) Kazi Imdadul Haque advised buyers to check the BSTI certification mark, licence number, manufacturing date, expiry date and other relevant information before making a purchase.

He also urged consumers to report any complaints regarding product quality, adulteration, fraud or misuse of the BSTI certification mark to the organisation.

While contacted, Kazi Food Industries Ltd said in a statement that the company appealed to BSTI on July 2 for a re-test of samples of its Bellisimo Rotondo Hazelnut Coated Chocolate ice cream following complaints that it contained total milk solids-not-fat above the level specified under the Bangladesh Standards.

"We have submitted the application for the re-testing as recommended by BSTI representatives. Kazi Food has full respect for the standards and regulations set by BSTI and is committed to complying with and implementing them properly."

British International Investment (BII), the UK’s development finance institution, has unveiled a new five-year strategy for Bangladesh, reaffirming its long-term commitment to supporting sustainable economic growth, private sector development and climate-focused investment in one of South Asia’s fastest-growing economies.

The 2026-2031 strategy, launched on Monday, builds on more than four decades of investment in Bangladesh and signals Britain’s intention to deepen its economic partnership with the country by supporting businesses that generate employment, improve resilience and accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy.

BII, which has invested in Bangladesh since the early 1980s, currently manages a portfolio worth more than $270m in the country. Its new strategy prioritises investment in financial services, manufacturing, micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), digital infrastructure and renewable energy, while seeking to attract greater volumes of private capital into high-growth sectors.

The move comes as Bangladesh seeks to diversify its economy, strengthen industrial competitiveness and attract foreign investment amid global economic uncertainty and mounting climate challenges.

“Bangladesh has made remarkable economic progress over recent decades, underpinned by a dynamic private sector and entrepreneurial talent,” said Srini Nagarajan, managing director and head of Asia at BII.

“Through our new strategy, BII is reaffirming its strong commitment to Bangladesh’s long-term development and will build on more than 40 years of partnership in the country by backing businesses that expand opportunity, strengthen resilience and support the green transition.

“Our ambition is not only to invest, but to help mobilise greater pools of private capital into the sectors that will shape Bangladesh’s future growth.”

The institution said its future investments would place greater emphasis on job creation, gender inclusion and environmentally sustainable business practices.

Among its previous investments, BII highlighted its financing for Jinnat Textile Mills, which helped create more than 900 direct jobs, with women accounting for more than 44% of new recruits while also improving workplace standards and promoting more sustainable manufacturing.

It also pointed to its lending partnership with BRAC Bank, which has supported approximately 3,500 entrepreneurs, particularly MSMEs and women-owned businesses that often face difficulties accessing formal finance.

The strategy also aligns with BII’s broader commitment to frontier markets. The institution said at least 25% of the value of its new investments globally during the strategy period would be directed towards countries classified by the United Nations as Least Developed Countries, including Bangladesh.

British High Commissioner to Bangladesh Sarah Cooke said the initiative reflected the UK’s confidence in Bangladesh’s long-term economic prospects.

“The United Kingdom believes in Bangladesh’s economic future,” she said. “British International Investment’s new strategy will help create jobs, crowd-in private sector investment and support economic transformation.

“As a reliable, long-term economic partner, it demonstrates our commitment to a modern UK-Bangladesh partnership built on trade, investment, knowledge partnerships and shared prosperity.”

The announcement underscores Britain’s continuing effort to position itself as a long-term development and investment partner for Bangladesh, with a growing focus on mobilising private capital alongside public investment to support the country’s next phase of economic transformation.

Provisioning against negative equity surged by 36 per cent over the past 18 months to Tk 36.68 billion as of May 30, up from Tk 27.0 billion in October 2024, as brokerage houses and merchant banks are complying with regulatory directives to build stronger financial buffers against potential losses.

Market insiders point out that this reflects a gradual improvement in the financial health of brokerage firms, as many institutions have strengthened their balance sheets through higher provisioning and tighter risk management practices following regulatory directives.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) last year granted market intermediaries additional time to complete provisioning for unrealised losses and adjust negative equity.

Depending on board-approved roadmaps, most institutions received one- to two-year extensions, while a few were granted deadlines stretching to 2030 or even 2032.

The regulator also instructed all institutions enjoying extended deadlines to submit quarterly progress reports until full compliance is achieved.Economics

The scale of the exposure

The latest progress report, prepared by the securities regulator as of May 30 this year, showed that 146 brokerage houses and merchant banks, operating under the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), collectively extended Tk 160.41 billion in margin loans.

Of that amount, the industry's outstanding principal stood at Tk 78.20 billion, while accrued interest reached Tk 27.27 billion, taking the total outstanding exposure linked to negative equity to Tk 109.78 billion.

The report also showed that unrealised losses remained high at Tk 40.43 billion, reflecting the prolonged weakness of the stock market and the large number of defaulted margin accounts.

Despite the sharp rise in provisioning, outstanding negative equity has increased slightly from Tk 105.2 billion reported in October 2024. At that time, outstanding principal amounted to Tk 78.6 billion and accumulated interest stood at Tk 26.6 billion.

According to the latest data, the capital market had 1.41 million active beneficiary owner (BO) accounts, including 131,524 margin accounts. Among them, 36,610 accounts remained under negative equity, meaning the market value of pledged shares was lower than the outstanding margin loan balance.

Emergence of negative equityMaps

Before the 2010-11 stock market crash, lenders disbursed margin loans aggressively, boosting liquidity in the market. Some lenders exceeded regulatory limits and provided margin loans to artificially push certain stocks.

Stockbrokers and merchant banks provided margin loans using funds received from parent companies, most of which are banks.

The market surged in 2010 driven largely by margin loans and then crashed, causing massive erosion of asset values.

The problem, persisting since the 2010 debacle, has intensified over the past 16 years, becoming a heavy burden on the equity market and restricting its growth.

Over time, negative equity ballooned as lenders refrained from selling securities in margin accounts to make adjustments, hoping for a market rebound that never came.

Market operators said margin loans deepened financial distress and weakened intermediaries and banks, ultimately straining the entire capital market-even those who did not take margin loans.Exchanges

Previously, the securities regulator extended the deadline for negative equity adjustment at least six times, but most intermediaries failed to comply due to a prolonged bearish market.

As the market failed to recover as expected, unrecovered losses accumulated over the years, leaving brokers and merchant banks burdened with a large volume of negative equity.

Recognising the issue as one of the capital market's most persistent structural weaknesses, the BSEC in 2024 sought the intervention of the Financial Institutions Division under the Ministry of Finance to explore a permanent solution.

Nevertheless, the latest data indicate that market intermediaries have made substantial progress in strengthening their balance sheets through increased provisioning.

An analyst said the higher level of provisions would improve the industry's capacity to absorb potential credit losses and enhance the financial resilience of brokerage houses and merchant banks.

They, however, cautioned that the continued increase in outstanding negative equity underscores the need for sustained provisioning, recovery of long-overdue margin loans, prudent risk management and supportive policy measures to finally eliminate one of the country's longest-running capital market vulnerabilities.Economics

The overseas presence of Bangladesh's state-owned banks has suffered another setback, as four branches of Janata Bank in the United Arab Emirates face possible closure – four years after Sonali Bank's licence was cancelled in the United Kingdom.

The UAE central bank imposed restrictions on Janata Bank's operations over a capital shortfall and ordered the bank to prepare for a wind-down of its existing operations unless the deficit is addressed.

Under Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) regulations, Janata Bank's UAE operations are required to maintain paid-up capital of 400 million dirhams. The current paid-up capital is 100 million dirhams, leaving a shortfall of 300 million dirhams, or nearly Tk1,000 crore.

The UAE central bank has restricted withdrawals from the Janata Bank branches' accounts held with it, stopped them from opening new customer accounts and instructed them to prepare to gradually wind down existing operations.
According to Janata Bank officials, the measures were taken because the bank failed to maintain the minimum paid-up capital required under UAE banking regulations and due to concerns over the bank's overall financial condition in Bangladesh.

On 8 July, CBUAE Assistant Governor Ahmed Saeed Al Qamzi wrote to Janata Bank's UAE Chief Executive Officer Mohammad Kamruzzaman, directing him to inform the bank's board of directors and quickly communicate its decision.

The UAE central bank also informed Janata Bank Managing Director Mazibur Rahman and Bangladesh Bank's Off-site Supervision Department of its decision on 9 July.

The bank, in a board meeting on 14 July, decided that an emergency meeting involving the Financial Institutions Division, the Bangladesh Bank, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the bank's chairman and managing director was needed to address the situation.

Accordingly, the MD wrote to the secretary of the Financial Institutions Division on the same day requesting such a meeting.

Speaking to TBS on Saturday, Mazibur said that since 2016, all profits earned by the UAE branches have been retained there and added to paid-up capital – from 75 million dirhams to 100 million dirhams.

He said the bank had proposed increasing its paid-up capital in phases over three years.

Mazibur said that if the UAE central bank does not accept the proposal, they will try to increase the paid-up capital with government assistance.

Concerns over Janata's capital position

In its letter, the CBUAE said the regulatory measures had been taken because of concerns over Janata Bank's capital position and its failure to comply with minimum capital requirements.

It said withdrawals from the bank's accounts with the UAE central bank would be approved only in limited amounts to meet depositors' claims. It also instructed the bank to stop accepting new customers and focus on settling existing liabilities and business.

In a separate letter sent to the bank's head office on 9 July, UAE CEO Kamruzzaman sought guidance from the board on the next course of action.

Responding to concerns raised by the UAE central bank over Janata Bank's financial condition, Mazibur cited the country's banking sector's broader challenges, with more than 20% of loans nationwide classified as defaulted.

He said although around 70% of Janata Bank's loans had become defaulted, it continues to operate without relying on emergency borrowing.

In a separate letter dated 22 April, CBUAE's Qamzi pointed out the bank's audited 2024 financial statements that showed the capital of Janata's head office had also fallen below the minimum equivalent of 2 billion dirhams required under UAE regulations.

According to Bangladesh Bank data, Janata Bank's capital deficit stood at Tk52,891 crore at the end of December 2024. At the end of March this year, its provision shortfall was Tk50,131 crore, while defaulted loans totalled Tk74,996 crore, representing 73.94% of its outstanding loans.

Future of UAE branches uncertain

Janata Bank began operations in the United Arab Emirates in October 1976 with an initial paid-up capital of 12.7 million dirhams. It now operates four branches in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah and Al Ain.

The branches primarily facilitate remittance services for Bangladeshi expatriates and provide banking services to non-resident Bangladeshis. They also handle import and export letters of credit, trade finance, guarantees, deposits and commercial lending.

According to bank documents, the UAE operations earned a profit of 32 million dirhams up to 2020, of which 25 million dirhams was added to paid-up capital.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said if the government does not provide the required capital, any closure of the UAE branches would have to follow the UAE central bank's regulations, taking into account the branches' paid-up capital, deposits and other liabilities.

He said such a process would also involve high costs for the bank.

Sonali Bank's trouble in UK

Sonali Bank began its UK operations in 1999 with the registration of Sonali Trade & Finance (UK) Ltd in London. In December 2001, it was renamed Sonali Bank (UK) Ltd and started operating as a full-fledged bank, providing accounts, remittance, and trade finance services to expatriate Bangladeshis and business clients.

Though initially popular, the bank soon faced a series of regulatory challenges. In 2016, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority fined it for weaknesses in anti-money laundering systems, while financial losses and irregularities also mounted.

Under increasing regulatory pressure, the UK's Prudential Regulation Authority cancelled the bank's licence in August 2022.

Following the licence loss, the entity was restructured and renamed Sonali Bangladesh (UK) Ltd on the same day, taking over the liabilities of the former company. The new entity no longer offers retail banking; instead, it focuses on trade finance, correspondent banking, and institutional transactions.

Sonali Bank later established an exchange house named Sonali Pay (UK) Limited and a non-banking financial institution named Sonali Bangladesh (UK) Limited in London. However, neither of these newly created entities is performing well, with both consistently running at a loss and requiring capital injections from Bangladesh to survive, according to Sonali Bank officials.

Performance of other banks' overseas operations

While state-owned Agrani Bank's exchange houses in Singapore and Malaysia currently play a vital role in remittance inflows, their internal governance and management have plunged into a severe crisis due to widespread financial irregularities and corruption uncovered in recent years.

An internal audit conducted by Agrani Bank, covering the period from 1 July 2017 to 31 December 2024, revealed that the officials in charge of these two entities engaged in numerous activities that were "completely contrary to banking policies, financial discipline, and good governance" – many of which amount to direct criminal offences.

According to Bangladesh Bank's latest Financial Stability Report 2024, the combined net profit of overseas branches and exchange houses of Bangladeshi banks dropped to $5.96 million in 2024, representing a 36.56% decline from the $9.40 million recorded in 2023.

Over the same period, the combined return on assets for these branches fell from 1.74% to 1.15%.

The report also noted that Sonali Bank and Janata Bank, alongside the private-sector AB Bank, operate a total of seven full-fledged foreign branches across the UAE and India. Furthermore, another 21 Bangladeshi banks are providing remittance collection services overseas through 21 dedicated exchange houses.

President Donald Trump unveiled 50% tariffs on a wide range of imports from Canada on Monday in response to what the US administration called its discriminatory treatment of American-made cars, alcohol and dairy goods, threatening a new front in a global trade war.

In slapping import taxes on goods ranging from wine to cement and ice hockey gear, Trump invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which permits a president to impose punitive tariffs of up to 50% against trading partners deemed to have discriminated against US goods. That marked the law's first known usage in nearly a century of existence.

The new tariffs, set to take effect in 30 days, would also apply to dairy products, swimming pools, furniture, fishing rods, seeds, clothing and wigs, among other items.

"While the Administration continues to secure fair and reciprocal trade deals with our trading partners, Canada, unlike other partners and allies, continues to retaliate against the United States for its efforts to rebalance trade and protect US industry in national-security sensitive sectors," US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a statement that his government has made comprehensive proposals to resolve trade disputes with Washington, asserting that Trump's past tariffs violated the North American trade pact.

"This trade dispute has raised costs for families, particularly in the US," he said. "Canada stands ready to engage intensively to address outstanding issues with the US to the mutual benefit of our citizens."

The Trump administration has long complained that Canada and China implemented retaliatory measures in response to the barrage of tariffs Trump has tried to impose since returning to the White House last year.

Greer has pointedly left Canada out of negotiations under way with Mexico on changes the US wants in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade. He holds bilateral talks on USMCA in Mexico City this week.

When Trump and Carney met at the Fifa World Cup Final in New Jersey on Sunday, Trump demanded that Carney take action to contain wildfires that have sent smoke billowing across swathes of the US. The US president last week threatened to add the "incalculable cost" of dealing with the pollution to existing tariffs on Canadian goods.

First usage

The Tariff Act of 1930 and its Section 338 are better known for massive US tariff increases and subsequent retaliation that economic historians say worsened the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Section 338 was intended to ensure countries apply tariffs equally and don't give preferential rates to some countries at the expense of US exports, said John Veroneau, a US trade official in the President George W. Bush administration who has extensively researched the statute.

He said that some presidents, including Franklin D. Roosevelt, considered imposing tariffs under Section 338, but no record could be found of any president taking such action until Trump's proclamations on Monday.

"It is ironic, to say the least, to use this authority to impose tariffs to retaliate against tariffs that were imposed in response to actions taken by the US," said Veroneau, senior counsel with the Covington and Burling law firm.

"These tariffs may be lawful under Section 338, but they at a minimum violate the spirit of Section 338, which was to create a world where countries apply the same tariffs on the same goods to all countries," he said, adding Trump has moved away from this principle "in a maximalist way."

After World War Two, major countries created the "most-favoured-nation" tariff system through the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade to try to prevent a return to the pre-war "beggar-thy-neighbour" economic policies marked by competitive trade restrictions and currency devaluations.

Trump's new levies are set to take effect on 19 August and apply regardless of whether goods qualify for tariff exemptions under USMCA, although Trump exempted a range of key goods including energy, potash, fish, critical minerals and products already covered by Section 232 tariffs.

Among grounds for the tariffs, the White House cited Canada's "protectionist" dairy supply management system as well as tariffs and quotas on cars imported to Canada from the US but not from other countries. Carney said that Canada "as is its right, merely matched" US tariffs on the auto sector that were in violation of the USMCA.

Washington also highlighted that most Canadian provinces have halted the sale of US alcohol, which they did in response to prior US tariffs.

The White House said Canadian imports of US motor vehicles dropped by 22% and of US alcoholic beverages by 81% over the past year.

Diamond Isinger, a former senior adviser to ex-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on US-Canada relations, said Carney would have limited ability to compel provinces to start selling American alcohol again.

"Unless there are some sort of extraordinary measures invoked here, the premiers of those provinces are the ones who decide whether to restock alcohol," Isinger said.

The stock market regulator has proposed making it easier for investors to borrow money to buy shares, believing the move could increase trading and improve market liquidity.

However, market experts say that easier access to borrowing could encourage riskier investing and make the market more vulnerable to sharp swings later.

With the proposals, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) published draft amendments to the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Margin) Rules last week and invited comments from stakeholders.

A margin loan is money borrowed from a broker or merchant bank to buy shares. Investors pay part of the purchase price from their own funds and borrow the rest, allowing them to buy more shares than they otherwise could.

Among the seven major changes proposed by the BSEC, one of the most significant is expanding margin loans to more B-category companies.

B-category companies generally pay lower dividends than A-category companies and are considered riskier investments.

Under the current rules, investors can obtain margin loans only to buy shares of B-category companies that pay at least a 5 percent dividend. The draft rules would remove that requirement, allowing investors to borrow to buy shares even if those companies pay less than a 5 percent dividend.

According to market experts, margin loans are generally intended for relatively stronger shares because borrowing magnifies both gains and losses. Extending margin finance to weaker companies could encourage speculation and increase risks for both investors and lenders.

Faruq Ahmed Siddiqi, a former chairman of the BSEC, said companies that pay very low dividends or are fundamentally weak should not be eligible for margin loans.

“Instead, the level of dividend payment could be incorporated as a criterion for determining the margin loan ratio,” he said.

In other words, companies that pay lower dividends should qualify for lower margin financing. There should be some form of restriction on companies with poor dividend records.

Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA), said, “Under the proposed rules, even a company that pays only a 0.5 percent dividend would be eligible for margin lending; that should not happen.”

“While it is true that lenders will assess the risks before providing loans, such a provision should not exist in the first place. The proposal suggests that margin lending may be made more flexible,” he said.

The draft amendments also propose lowering the minimum investment required to qualify for a margin loan.

At present, investors must hold at least Tk 5 lakh worth of shares in their BO accounts for at least one year before they become eligible for margin finance. The proposed rules would reduce the threshold to Tk 3 lakh, allowing more investors to qualify.

The BSEC also wants brokers and other intermediaries to lend more.

At present, they can provide margin loans worth up to three times their core capital or net worth, whichever is higher. Under the proposed rules, that limit would rise to five times.

For example, a lender with Tk 100 in core capital can currently lend up to Tk 300. The proposed rules would allow it to lend up to Tk 500.

The draft amendments also seek to remove the minimum free-float requirement for companies whose shares qualify for margin loans.

Free float refers to the shares that are available for public trading. It excludes shares held by founders, sponsors and other long-term owners that are not normally traded.

Currently, a company must have at least Tk 50 crore in free-float market capitalisation for its shares to qualify for margin lending. The proposed rules would remove that requirement.

The BSEC has also proposed increasing the maximum exposure to a single stock to 20 percent from 15 percent. This would allow brokers to concentrate a larger share of their lending in one company.

Another proposed change would revise maintenance margin requirements. A margin call would be triggered when the value of an investor’s portfolio falls below 70 percent, compared with the current 75 percent threshold.

The compulsory forced-sale threshold would remain unchanged at 50 percent.

Former BSEC chairman Faruq said the regulator may be relaxing margin lending rules to support the capital market. One argument in favour of such a move is that the risks associated with margin lending should be borne by the lender and the borrower.

“However, this assumption holds true only if investors behave rationally.”

Given the investment behaviour typically observed in Bangladesh’s stock market, he said regulators need to exercise great caution when setting margin lending requirements.

“It is better for the rules to remain relatively stringent in the interest of investors.”

During a rising market, many investors become eager to borrow while intermediaries are equally willing to extend credit. But when the market corrects, excessive margin lending can create significant risks, he added.

DBA President Saiful said expanding the market through margin lending is not sustainable. Instead, it could create significant risks.

“In a market where a large number of companies are underperforming, using leverage to inflate the market would be suicidal. Greater use of leverage may be appropriate when the market is dominated by institutional investors, but in a retail-driven market, excessive reliance on margin loans is not desirable.”

Moreover, for the market to grow in a sustainable manner, the mutual fund industry needs to become much larger, he added.

The draft amendments also revise the valuation criteria for companies eligible for margin loans.

For most companies, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio must remain below 30. For banks and other financial institutions, lenders would instead use the price-to-book (P/B) ratio because book value is generally considered a more appropriate measure for financial companies.

As per the proposal, banks and financial institutions with a P/B ratio above 3 would not qualify for margin lending. For insurance companies, the limit would be 1.

Md Sayeed Ahmed, a veteran chartered accountant and former executive director of the Financial Reporting Council, said using the price-to-book ratio as the primary or sole valuation criterion for financial sector securities, while relying on earnings-based measures for other sectors, appears “inconsistent” with well-established valuation principles.

He said a going concern business derives its economic value primarily from its expected future earnings and cash-generating capacity rather than merely from the historical carrying value of its net assets.

Book value is fundamentally an accounting measure representing historical net assets after applying accounting standards. It does not necessarily reflect a company’s future profitability, competitive strength, franchise value, management quality, business model, technological capability, or long-term growth prospects, he added.

Agencies are groping in the dark in executing Family Card recipes as a huge sum is being handed out under this government's flagship social-protection programme sans designating real recipients amid data dearth, sources say.

This is also the ruling BNP's key electoral pledge that went for rapid execution through disbursing cash assistance to insolvent families across Bangladesh after its election to power.

To bridge the data gaps, the Department of Social Services (DSS) has proposed conducting a nationwide census within three months by recruiting more than 60,000 enumerators to identify eligible beneficiaries of the Family Card charity.

Economists and government officials, however, have questioned the feasibility of the proposal, arguing that completing a nationwide census within such a short timeframe is unrealistic, particularly as the DSS lacks experienced personnel, institutional capacity to conduct a census or large-scale survey, and the legal mandate to undertake such an exercise.

A senior official at Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has said any public or private agency could conduct surveys only in areas where the BBS does not already have its reach.

The government has allocated Tk145.0 billion under the Annual Development Programme (ADP) for the current fiscal year to provide Family Card to 4.1 million families, with each beneficiary family set to receive Tk 2,500 per month.

The DSS has proposed revising the ongoing 'Strengthening Social Protection for Improved Resilience, Inclusion and Targeting' project to implement the Family Card programme, incorporating the proposed census and several other components.

The project documents reveal that the pilot phase of the Family Card programme, launched in March this year, has been implemented successfully over the past few months, and the government planned to formally roll out the programme nationwide from July 1st.

The documents also state that the Cabinet Committee assigned the Ministry of Social Welfare for conducting the census and data-entry activities for the programme.

Since proposed in Parliament, 17 years have elapsed but a poverty database remains elusive.

While presenting the national budget in Parliament, then finance minister Abul Maal Abdul Muhith pledged to prepare a comprehensive database of hardcore poor, vulnerable elderly citizens, and persons with disabilities to ensure targeted government assistance.

In the following year's budget speech, he said the government had already started developing a database of social-safety-net beneficiaries to improve coordination among social-service programmes.

However, even after 17 years, Bangladesh has yet to establish an effective and functional poverty database.

The BBS's Tk7.27-billion project fails to deliver. Following the commitment, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) initiated a project in 2013 to develop the National Household Database (NHD) with an estimated cost of Tk3.29 billion, aiming to identify beneficiaries of social-safety-net programmes through a database of 35 million households.

The project, originally scheduled for completion in 2017, was finally completed in 2022 after costs surged to Tk7.27 billion. However, the database remains inaccessible due to the failure to develop a Management Information System (MIS).

In a revised project proposal in 2024, BBS acknowledged that the poverty database remained unusable due to the absence of an MIS and application-programming interface (API).

Database gap fuels targeting failures in social-safety-net delivery. The lack of a comprehensive database has contributed to persistent targeting failures in social-safety-net programmes, with inclusion and exclusion errors remaining high, according to the social-security budget report for the current fiscal year.

Evidence shows that social transfers are still not reaching the poorest effectively. Only about half of poor households received social assistance in 2022, while around 22 per cent of total social benefits went to the richest 20 per cent of households, highlighting continued exclusion, inclusion errors and leakages in programme delivery.

Economist Prof Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), terms unfortunate the absence of a comprehensive database of poor people even after so many years.

He has said, "The lack of such a database results in misallocation of funds, with a significant share of benefits going to affluent groups while many poor people remain excluded."

He suggests creating a reliable database through a quality survey or census before launching the Family Card programme, noting that such exercises are usually conducted by the BBS and the DSS's capacity in this area remains untested. He also recommends involving all relevant stakeholders in the census process.

Shah Mohammad Mahboob, Director-General at the DSS, has said that although BBS conducts various surveys, the data generated from those surveys would not be sufficient to accurately identify beneficiaries for the programme.

He said the ministry was, therefore, was given the responsibility of conducting a census under the DSR framework. To carry out the exercise, a nationwide workforce will be recruited and monitoring teams will be formed.

"The census and beneficiary-selection process will be completed within three months by covering all households across the country," he said.

Md Firoz Sarker, secretary of the Statistics and Informatics Division, has said the DSS had not yet shared any plan to conduct a survey or census. "Instead, the department had shared a plan to conduct a Proxy Means Test (PMT) to assess people's socioeconomic condition using proxy indicators that reflect income levels."

He has expressed the hope the DSS would seek support from the BBS if it proceeds with any census or survey in the future.

Bangladeshi expatriates living in different countries across the world remitted US$1.94 billion in the first 19 days of July, recording a robust 27.6 per cent growth compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, according to the latest data of Bangladesh Bank.

During the same period last year, the country received $1.52 billion in remittance inflows.

On July 19 alone, expatriates sent home $140 million.

The central bank also revised the remittance inflow figure for the three-day period between July 16 and July 18 to $166 million.

The strong growth in remittance inflows at the beginning of the fiscal year 2026-27 provides a substantial boost for the country's foreign exchange reserves and overall macroeconomic stability.

Pragati Insurance has reported a 23.57% year-on-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter of 2026, driven by higher operating and other income.

According to a disclosure published today (20 July), the listed non-life insurer's EPS rose to Tk1.52 for the April-June quarter, up from Tk1.23 in the corresponding period a year earlier.

For the first six months of 2026, the company's EPS climbed 37.6% to Tk3.11, compared with Tk2.26 in the January-June period of 2025.

The insurer also reported a sharp improvement in its net operating cash flow per share (NOCFPS), which increased to Tk2.00 during the first half of 2026. The company attributed the growth to higher premium collections and increased other income.

Its net asset value (NAV) per share stood at Tk54.43 as of 30 June 2026, compared with Tk55.69 at the end of December 2025.

For the full year of 2025, Pragati Insurance posted a net profit of Tk41.88 crore, with an EPS of Tk5.31. The company rewarded shareholders with a 27% cash dividend.

Despite the strong earnings growth, the company's share price fell 2.93% to Tk76.30 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) on Monday.

As of June 2026, sponsor-directors held 40.13% of the company's shares, institutional investors owned 23.83%, while the general public held the remaining 36.04%.

The country’s only state-owned diammonium phosphate (DAP) fertiliser plant has remained shut since June 28 after failing to secure phosphoric acid through multiple tenders, raising concerns over fertiliser supplies for agriculture.

Officials said the shutdown at DAP Fertilizer Company Limited (DAPFCL) in Anwara, Chattogram, followed a shortage of phosphoric acid, a key raw material, after repeated import efforts failed amid global supply disruptions.

The plant, in commercial operation since 2006, has two units capable of producing 800 tonnes of fertiliser per day.

“Phosphoric acid and ammonia are the two main raw materials for producing DAP fertiliser,” said Rabiul Alam Khan, deputy general manager (commercial) of DAPFCL.

He told The Daily Star that ammonia is sourced locally from Chittagong Urea Fertilizer Limited (CUFL) and Karnaphuli Fertilizer Company Ltd (KAFCO), while phosphoric acid is imported through tenders.

DAPFCL floated a tender in January to import 20,000 tonnes of phosphoric acid, but the chosen supplier failed to deliver.

The Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) invited two more tenders on June 8 and June 23, but got no bids amid market instability linked to renewed conflict in the Middle East, Khan said.

BCIC has floated two fresh tenders, to be opened on August 8 and September 9.

A prolonged shutdown could hit domestic supplies and deepen import reliance, officials said.

Despite earlier ammonia shortages halting output for 58 days this year, DAPFCL produced around 82,000 tonnes of DAP against its 100,000-tonne target in FY26.

The company has again set a 100,000-tonne target for the current fiscal year but fears missing it as production has already stopped.

Bangladesh’s annual fertiliser demand is 65 lakh to 69 lakh tonnes, including 15 lakh tonnes of DAP, according to BCIC and the agriculture ministry. The country imports around 14 lakh tonnes of DAP annually, mainly from Morocco, Tunisia, China and Saudi Arabia.

Modern retail outlets are steadily expanding their footprint across Bangladesh’s urban landscape as consumers increasingly prioritise convenience in shopping.

The number of supermarket chain outlets more than doubled to over 1,500 in 2025 from more than 750 a year earlier. The number of small modern retail stores also increased to 1,500 from 1,000 during the same period, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Exporter Guide Annual reports for 2025 and 2026.

The expansion lifted the industry’s annual turnover to an estimated $800 million in 2025, up 33 percent from $600 million the previous year, the reports said.

The USDA published its latest Exporter Guide Annual on Bangladesh early this month. It said the modern retail sector, including supermarkets, convenience stores, and online businesses, is growing as consumers attach greater importance to appearance, ambience, comfort, and the availability of a wide range of products.

While modern retail outlets are increasing in number, industry contacts believe they still account for only 3-4 percent of total urban retail market sales.

“These modern retail chains are striving to differentiate themselves from wet markets by offering a wider range of high-quality products and greater convenience,” the report said.

The USDA report names Shwapno, Agora, Meena Bazar, Unimart, Daily Shopping, Metro Mart, Prince Bazar, Fresh Super Mart, Chaldal, and Pandamart as the top 10 retailers in the country.

The agency said the easing of VAT rules for modern retail by the National Board of Revenue buoyed the sector’s growth.

“However, they also face challenges, such as cold chain capacity, food preservation and packaging, and general transportation logistics,” the report added.

The USDA noted that the e-commerce sector is thriving in the urban food and non-food retail market in Bangladesh, stating that “the adoption of digital technologies and e-commerce is expected to play a crucial role in shaping the sector’s future”.

Furthermore, the hotel and restaurant sector has experienced growth, especially in urban areas. Bangladesh now has 53 government-licensed international chains, local hotels, and resorts, including 20 five-star, eight four-star, and 25 three-star hotels.

Most of these establishments are located in Dhaka, Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, and Sylhet, catering to the business community and domestic tourists.

The report further highlighted that Bangladesh has more than 1,000 food processing companies. This $8 billion sector grows at an average of eight percent annually as more consumers demand high-value, safe, and quality products.

“The evolving Bangladesh market presents new opportunities for US exporters in fast-moving consumer goods and beverages for the growing modern retail and hospitality sectors,” the report said, adding that consumer-oriented food importers have an interest in US brands and new products.

The report said that US exports of consumer-oriented products to Bangladesh totalled $13.9 million, accounting for less than 1 percent of the $2 billion that Bangladesh imported in that category in 2025. These US exports were valued at $12.7 million in 2024.

The global oil refining industry is flashing warning signs. The supply chain for the products that fuel the global economy is under growing stress as conflicts in the Middle East and Russia ripple through energy markets.

Benchmark crude prices have retreated sharply from the highs of $118 a barrel reached during the height of the Iran war and are now hovering around $85, suggesting many investors believe the threat of an energy crisis has faded.

While crude supplies have partially recovered, the system that converts crude into fuels is still struggling after months of disruption from conflicts in Russia and the Middle East.

Gasoline and diesel inventories sit near multi-year lows, refining margins have surged to record levels, and refinery throughput remains severely curtailed across key producing regions. Households and industry consume refined products, not crude, so this is the stress they should be monitoring.

WARTIME CASUALTIES

Refineries have proven to be tempting targets. In the Middle East, major refineries in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates remain either partially or entirely offline after the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28 triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

China, meanwhile, has sharply reduced refinery runs to compensate for the massive decline in imports during the Iran conflict. Across Asia, refiners have also been forced to reduce operations because of constrained crude supplies.

And Russia’s refining sector has been battered by sustained Ukrainian drone attacks, triggering domestic fuel shortages that have forced Moscow to curb diesel exports in a bid to contain soaring local prices.

Taken together, those disruptions removed roughly 5 million barrels per day of global refining output in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, with refinery runs averaging around 78 million bpd, according to the International Energy Agency.

The temporary reopening of Hormuz following the US-Iran ceasefire on June 17 briefly eased some of the pressure. But even though Gulf producers rushed crude exports through the waterway, refined product flows remained far weaker.

According to Kpler data, the region exported around 4 million bpd of crude in June, but only 1 million bpd of oil products, totalling a quarter of pre-war levels.

Now, the renewed disruption to traffic through Hormuz — due to escalating hostilities between the US and Iran — has once again choked off regional exports, threatening hopes for a recovery in Asian or Middle Eastern refinery activity.

Buffers and time are both running short.

US RUNNING OUT OF STEAM

The US emerged as the world’s refinery of last resort in the first half of this year, ramping up exports of crude, gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel to compensate for disruptions elsewhere. But it is now running out of steam.

US crude inventories, including commercial stocks and those in the government’s emergency reserve, have fallen since the start of the Iran war to their lowest level since 1984.

Gasoline stocks are at their thinnest seasonal level since 2012, while diesel inventories only recently recovered from their lowest levels in more than two decades.

At the same time, total US crude and product exports have started to retreat as refiners meet rising domestic demand.

Weekly exports fell to 10.7 million bpd last week, the weakest since March, after reaching a record 14.2 million bpd in April.

With domestic stockpiles under pressure and summer fuel demand at its seasonal peak, Washington’s ability to keep supplying the rest of the world looks increasingly constrained.

CRACKING CRACKS

Perhaps the clearest signal of distress comes from refining profits. The benchmark US 3-2-1 refining margin, or crack spread, recently surged to nearly $70 a barrel, an all-time high. In Northwest Europe, refining margins climbed to seasonal records near $30 a barrel. Diesel markets appear particularly tight.

European diesel margins have jumped to a record of around $65 a barrel, while US gasoline margins are hovering near the record levels reached during the energy shock of 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Markets do not pay refiners such extraordinary premiums unless consumers are competing for scarce fuel supplies.

TRUMP CARD MIGHT NOT WORK

As the Iran crisis enters its fifth month, traders have become increasingly convinced that US President Donald Trump will do almost anything to avoid a politically damaging spike in US fuel prices.

But the bright flashing warning signs coming out of the refining system suggest the US president may struggle to prevent one. A rapid recovery in global refinery output remains unlikely.

Several major refining hubs remain impaired, due to conflict, supply disruptions or export restrictions, just as summer demand for road fuels and jet fuel is reaching its peak. Diesel stocks typically build during summer ahead of winter.

Refining output in Russia will likely take months, if not years, to recover, assuming no further Ukrainian strikes — an assumption few are willing to make.

Middle East refineries will also require months to ramp up operations once flows through Hormuz are normalised — whenever that is. As inventories run dry, the only remaining market lever would be demand destruction, which could curtail economic activity around the world.

Energy markets have handled the chaotic first half of 2026 remarkably well, but with global fuel stocks now running worryingly thin, the global economy finds itself dangerously exposed.

Gold prices were little changed on Monday as investors assessed an escalation in the Middle East war that pushed oil prices higher.

Another US Federal Reserve policymaker signalled that interest rate hikes may be needed to curb inflation.Spot gold was steady at $4,018.19 per ounce, as of 0756 GMT. US gold futures for August delivery gained 0.1 percent to $4,023.Oil prices jumped more than 3 percent after US forces struck Iran for a ninth consecutive day on Monday.

This came as the number of confirmed American military deaths in the renewed fighting rose to three.Concals also grew over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The war is still ongoing, with a focus on rising oil prices that could lead to higher inflation, which is keeping gold pressured, said GoldSilver Central Managing Director Brian Lan.

However, $4,000 has been an important level, and shows that there is support for the metal when it falls below that mark.

Elevated oil prices stoke inflation fears and bets of higher-for-longer interest rates.

While gold is typically seen as an inflation hedge, high interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack added her voice to a growing chorus of policymakers arguing interest rates may need to rise.

This is to beat back persistent inflation, setting up a charged debate at the Fed’s next meeting on July 29.

Traders are now pricing an 82 percent chance of a December interest-rate hike, versus 73 percent last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

In the longer term, I’m more cautious on gold and looking at the key $3,886 level, said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

If that level is taken out on the downside, it could potentially unleash further weakness towards $3,500, Wong added.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) and its affiliated institutions provided investment education to a total of 21,732 individuals during the 2025-26 fiscal year.

This extensive nationwide outreach, which included various training programmes, seminars, workshops, and conferences, was part of a broader strategy to increase investor awareness, facilitate informed decision-making, and build a healthy and stable capital market.

According to a press release issued by the BSEC today (20 July), these initiatives targeted a wide range of participants, from retail investors to financial professionals and journalists.

The BSEC's Financial Literacy Division played a central role in this initiative, reaching 4,660 people between July 2025 and June 2026. This training pool included 1,896 general investors and 1,194 employees of various market intermediary firms. To ensure accurate media coverage, the commission conducted workshops for 52 capital market journalists.

Furthermore, the division organised a high-level seminar on US SEC surveillance, capital issuance, and financial literacy for 81 participants, while also training 106 authorised representatives of DSE TREC-holders.

Special events also drew significant participation, with 1,290 individuals attending programmes during World Investor Week 2025.

The commission further focused on sector-specific growth by training 91 SME entrepreneurs on raising capital through public offerings. In a bid to promote gender inclusivity in the financial sector, 35 women investors participated in dedicated financial investment workshops, alongside another 26 individuals in miscellaneous educational sessions.

The regulator emphasised that this massive educational drive was a collective effort involving the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), Central Depository Bangladesh Limited (CDBL), and the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB).

Key academic and professional bodies, including the Bangladesh Institute of Capital Market (BICM) and the Bangladesh Academy for Securities Markets (BASM), also took part.

Additionally, individual brokerage houses, merchant bankers, and listed companies carried out their own literacy initiatives to reach a broader audience.

Institutional data showed that, excluding BSEC's affiliated divisions, brokerage houses trained the highest number of participants at 3,876, followed by the Chittagong Stock Exchange (3,350), the Bangladesh Academy for Securities Markets (2,589), merchant bankers (2,352) and the Dhaka Stock Exchange (1,339).

Other contributors included 185 people trained by publicly listed companies, 181 by the BICM, 180 by the CDBL, and 111 by the ICB.

This multi-stakeholder approach underlines the regulator's commitment to ensuring that market participants at all levels are well-equipped with the financial knowledge necessary to navigate the bourse safely and effectively.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has warned the public in Bangladesh against fraudulent schemes that misuse its name and logo to offer fake loans in exchange for fees.

ADB does not provide loans, funds, or financial assistance directly to individuals. Nor does it request personal financial information or seek payments through mobile banking or any other channel in exchange for financial assistance, the multilateral lender said in a statement yesterday.

Citing recent reports, ADB said fraudsters have created fake websites, Facebook pages, IDs, and other deceptive materials impersonating the bank and its staff to mislead people and solicit payments.

“ADB has no involvement in these schemes,” it said.

The international financial institution advised the public to remain vigilant and avoid responding to fake loan offers. Anyone approached by individuals or groups claiming to offer ADB loans or financial assistance should report the incident to the appropriate authorities.

ADB said it is a long-standing development partner of Bangladesh, working with the government and private sector organisations to support development projects through transparent business processes.

“Any person claiming to represent ADB and offering loans directly to individuals is acting fraudulently,” it said.

Founded in 1966, ADB is a multilateral development bank that supports sustainable, inclusive, and resilient growth across Asia and the Pacific. It is owned by 69 members, 50 of whom are from the region.

The US dollar has resumed its upward trend over the past three to four weeks, driven by higher import payment pressures, weaker remittance inflows, slower export earnings and changing market expectations following recent discussions between the Bangladesh Bank and the International Monetary Fund, according to bankers and central bank officials.

Yesterday (20 July), several commercial banks purchased remittance dollars from exchange houses at Tk123.75 per dollar, about 10 paisa higher than in early July. Bangladesh Bank data also show the interbank exchange rate rose by 75 paisa over the past week to Tk123.60.

Although the central bank had kept the benchmark interbank rate at Tk122.85 for a prolonged period, treasury officials say actual transactions were rarely conducted at that level.

Bangladesh Bank data show that letters of credit worth more than $7 billion were settled in June, with government imports accounting for a significant share. Higher global prices of fuel and fertiliser, partly due to the conflict in the Middle East, pushed up import costs and increased demand for foreign currency.

Since LCs are generally settled one to three months after opening, many import orders placed in March and April became due in June and July.

In addition, a large number of deferred-payment UPAS [Usance Payable at Sight] LCs opened during Ramadan were settled in June, while some are still being settled this month, keeping demand for dollars elevated.

Meanwhile, foreign currency inflows have weakened. Bangladesh received $2.82 billion in remittances in June, the lowest monthly inflow in eight months.

Export earnings have also declined. According to the Export Promotion Bureau, merchandise exports fell by $4.2 billion in FY26 compared with the previous fiscal year, reducing the supply of dollars in the banking system.

Bangladesh Bank's Economic Indicators report shows LC settlements reached $70.4 billion in FY26, slightly higher than $70.3 billion a year earlier, indicating import demand remained strong despite slower export growth.

Bankers also attribute the market's volatility to aggressive competition among some commercial banks for remittance dollars. Treasury officials say some banks are paying higher prices to secure remittance inflows while selling dollars at lower rates, particularly for government LC payments, creating distortions in the foreign exchange market.

Market expectations have also shifted following recent IMF discussions. Officials said the IMF questioned why Bangladesh Bank's dollar purchases through auctions remained within a narrow price range.

After the meetings, the central bank began publishing the prevailing interbank exchange rate on its website instead of the earlier benchmark, reinforcing expectations that the exchange rate would be increasingly market-driven.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said that, as the government negotiates a new IMF loan programme, the central bank is refraining from informal intervention in exchange rate determination, encouraging exchange houses to seek higher prices for remittance dollars.