Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus) has raised the prices of gold for the second consecutive day, pushing the rate of 22-carat gold up by Tk 2,741 per bhori to Tk 2,24,182, inclusive of VAT.

In a notice issued today (22 July), Bajus said the revision followed a rise in the price of pure gold in the local market, prompting the fresh adjustment. The new rate came into effect from 10am today (22 July).

Under the revised pricing, each bhori (11.664 grams) of 21-carat gold will now cost Tk 2,14,093, while 18-carat gold has been set at Tk 1,83,883 per bhori. Traditional gold will sell at Tk 1,50,232 per bhori, the notice said.

Bajus said the new prices will remain effective at all jewellery outlets until further notice, though making charges will continue to apply depending on ornament design.

Since VAT is already included in the selling price of gold and silver ornaments, jewellers cannot charge it separately from customers.

The association added that its existing rules on exchange and repurchase of ornaments, excluding specified VAT, making charges and stone costs, will remain unchanged.

The previous adjustment came on the morning of July 21, when Bajus raised the price of 22-carat gold by Tk 1,633 per bhori to Tk 2,21,441, inclusive of VAT.

So far in 2026, the price of gold has been revised 93 times in the domestic market, increased on 45 occasions, decreased on 47, and adjusted once for VAT.

Alongside gold, the price of silver was also raised.

The rate of 22-carat silver went up by Tk 175 per bhori to Tk 4,782. Similarly, 21-carat silver is now selling at Tk 4,549 per bhori, 18-carat at Tk 3,907, and traditional silver at Tk 2,974 per bhori.

Silver prices have been adjusted 57 times so far this year, with 29 increases and 28 decreases.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has allowed National Bank to lease out its under-construction Twin Tower building in Dhaka’s Panthapath area, which was originally planned to become the private lender’s headquarters.

In a notification issued yesterday, the central bank said it has exempted the bank from the relevant provision of the Bank Companies Act until 2031, allowing it to lease the property.
The NBL Twin Tower was intended to become the bank’s head office. As per the law, such a building cannot normally be leased out.However, after years of losses, National Bank received the special facility, which is expected to support the efforts to improve its financial position.The bank has posted losses every year since 2022. Its accumulated losses reached nearly Tk 8,900 crore, driven by a high volume of non-performing loans and financial irregularities.National Bank began construction of the 12-storey Twin Tower in Panthapath nearly a decade ago after the Sikder family, owners of the Sikder Group, took control of the bank in 2009. The family has faced allegations of financial irregularities, including approving loans in breach of rules and regulations.Construction was suspended for several years after a 2015 accident in which the shore pile bracing and retaining wall collapsed.

According to the bank’s financial statements, work resumed in 2020 after the necessary approvals were secured from the relevant authorities.The structural work on both towers has now been completed up to the 12th floor. The bank said the 11kV electricity connection had already been installed.

It added that approval has also been obtained for water and sewerage connections.According to the bank, the floor plans and layouts have been completed, while network installation and internal power connection work are under way. It said the interior decoration of the second floor of one tower has already been completed, and the Card Division and several other divisions would be moved there soon.

National Bank posted a loss of Tk 2,431 crore in the 2025 financial year, up 42 percent from about Tk 1,700 crore a year earlier, according to its financial statements.The Daily Star sought comment from the bank’s Managing Director Adil Chowdhury, but he did not answer phone calls or respond to messages.

The government is preparing an ambitious five-year trade and investment strategy to support a smooth transition from least developed country (LDC) status, targeting a 75% rise in per capita income to $5,000 by 2031 through higher investment, stronger export competitiveness, and wide-ranging regulatory reforms.

It also hopes to make significant progress in reducing economic vulnerability while improving human assets and social development indicators under the plan.

The targets are outlined in the Country Programme Document 2026-2031, prepared by the commerce ministry with financial support from the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

The programme aligns with the BNP's election manifesto and the "Smooth Transition Strategy" prepared during the previous Awami League administration.

Under the plan, Bangladesh aims to increase services exports to $10 billion within five years while expanding the number of exportable products by 60%. It also seeks to raise export-oriented investment from 0.65% of GDP to 1%.

The strategy comes at a time when Bangladesh's financial sector remains under pressure, private sector investment growth is at its lowest level on record, and many businesses are unable to start production despite making investments because of energy shortages.

The plan also follows decades of limited progress in export diversification and efforts to improve the investment climate.

The Country Programme places strong emphasis on modernisingtrade infrastructure, attracting FDI and reducing Bangladesh's heavy dependence on the ready-made garments sector.

Prepared jointly by the Ministry of Commerce and the WTO's Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF), the report stresses the need to make the business and investment environment simpler and more modern, alongside wide-ranging regulatory reforms.

The programme has initially identified 52 projects to help achieve its objectives. It also outlines the expected financial and technical support from development partners, alongside the respective roles of the government and business organisations.

Investment constraints

Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said higher public, private and foreign investment would be essential if Bangladesh was to achieve its 2031 targets.

"Private investment is currently at its lowest level in history. This is due to the gas and electricity crisis, infrastructure bottlenecks and high bank lending rates," he told The Business Standard after reviewing the programme.

"If reliable gas and electricity supplies cannot be ensured and lending rates are not brought down to single digits, investment will not increase and these targets will remain beyond reach."

Implementation key to success

The commerce ministry held a validation workshop on Sunday to finalise the five-year programme.

At the event, Commerce Secretary Md Ataur Rahman Khan said preparing policies and research reports alone would not be enough, stressing that successful implementation would determine whether the programme achieved its objectives.

Former additional secretary and EIF consultant Md HafizurRahman said development partners would provide financial and technical assistance to support implementation. "If the government takes the right decisions at the right time and implements them effectively, achieving these targets will become much easier."

The programme also states that Bangladesh's progress will be assessed against various international benchmarks to measure both the implementation of reforms and improvements in the country's overall capacity.

Preparing for post-LDC challenges

Government reports have warned that once Bangladesh graduates from LDC status, it will gradually lose duty-free and quota-free market access, simplified rules of origin and flexibilities under the WTO's Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), with potential implications for exports and investment.

Bangladesh is officially set to graduate from its LDC status on 24 November 2026.

However, citing global economic uncertainty and persistent structural vulnerabilities, the government has sought a three-year extension of the preparatory period until 2029. The request has been endorsed by the UN Committee for Development Policy (CDP) and is awaiting final approval from the UN General Assembly.

To address the challenges, the government plans to sign free trade agreements (FTAs) or economic partnership agreements (EPAs) with nine countries over the next five years.

Bangladesh currently has an EPA only with Japan. Negotiations are under way with India, China, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, the European Union and several other trading partners.

The action plan targets an increase in per capita income from $2,820 in 2026 to $5,000 by 2031. It also aims to double services exports from $5 billion to $10 billion.

The document also describes Bangladesh's services export earnings as disappointing.

"More than 56% contribution in the GDP is coming from service sectors. But the exports in these sectors are minimal; they are not more than $7 billion. Product-based export earnings have limits to be explored," it says.

"Poor logistics efficiency, inadequate tourism infrastructure and limited strategic foreign investment in service industries reduce competitiveness. As Bangladesh transitions from LDC status, the service sector will face stronger international competition, making regulatory reform, skills upgrading, digital transformation and a long-term service trade development roadmap critical for sustainable growth," it adds.

Export diversification, reforms

The programme places strong emphasis on export diversification, noting that Bangladesh currently exports around 500 products worth more than $1,000 each. It aims to increase that number to 800 within five years.

The commerce ministry also plans to raise export-oriented investment from 0.65% of GDP to 1%.

The report says Bangladesh is currently utilising only 71% of the trade preferences available to it as an LDC because of limited export diversification. The government aims to increase that utilisation rate to 80% over the next five years.

Alongside trade and investment targets, the programme gives priority to regulatory reforms.

Bangladesh currently scores 25.7 on the Regulatory Quality Index. The government aims to raise that score to 40 within five years, saying the target is achievable because of strong political commitment at the highest levels to implement regulatory reforms.

The government also plans to improve the country's score on the Investment Facilitation Index from 65.6 to 80 over the next five years through its reform agenda.

According to the Global Economic Diversification Index, Bangladesh scored 95 on the Trade Diversification Index in 2025. The programme aims to raise that score to 130 by 2031 by encouraging greater private sector diversification and higher value addition.

The board of directors of Rupali Life Insurance Company Limited has recommended a 12% cash dividend for the year ended 31 December 2025, maintaining shareholder returns despite reporting an underwriting deficit in the first half of 2026.

The recommendation was disclosed today (21 July) through the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). The insurer paid a 10% cash dividend for 2024.

Shareholders will vote on the proposal at the company's annual general meeting (AGM), scheduled for 24 September 2026 at 10:00am on a digital platform. The record date has been set for 20 August 2026.

In line with stock exchange regulations, the company's shares traded without a price limit yesterday following the dividend declaration. The share price of the insurer rose 1.21% to Tk91.70 on the DSE.

The dividend recommendation comes despite continued pressure on the insurer's core underwriting business.

According to its life revenue account, Rupali Life posted a Tk7.09 crore deficit in the January-March quarter of 2026, improving from a Tk15.05 crore deficit a year earlier.

The trend, however, reversed in the April-June quarter, when the company reported a Tk8.11 crore deficit, compared with a Tk0.15 crore surplus in the same period of 2025.

As a result, the insurer recorded a first-half cumulative deficit of Tk15.21 crore, slightly higher than the Tk15 crore deficit in the corresponding period last year.

Despite the underwriting losses, Rupali Life continued to strengthen its policyholders' fund. Its Life Insurance Fund stood at Tk486 crore as of 30 June 2026, up from Tk480 crore a year earlier, an increase of Tk5.76 crore.

The fund had reached Tk494 crore at the end of March 2026, compared with Tk480 crore a year earlier, reflecting steady growth in long-term policyholders' assets despite fluctuations in quarterly operating performance.

Life insurers in Bangladesh typically determine dividends based on their overall financial position, including actuarial valuation, investment income, accumulated life fund and regulatory capital requirements, rather than quarterly underwriting performance alone.

As a result, temporary deficits in the life revenue account do not necessarily prevent dividend payments if regulatory requirements are met and the insurer remains financially sound.

The final dividend is subject to shareholders' approval at the AGM.

The EU on Monday slapped a 550-million-euro ($630 million) fine on online retailer AliExpress for allowing the sale of illegal products, including unsafe toys and cosmetics.

The European Union said AliExpress also did not do enough to stop the sale of counterfeit products and that when the platform detected illegal goods were on sale, many remained online for several weeks.

The EU found some of the products sold on the platform did not meet the bloc’s strict environmental and safety standards during its investigation into AliExpress launched in March 2024.

“Risks must be identified and addressed systematically to ensure consumers can safely shop online. Today, we are holding AliExpress to this standard and request it to take action,” EU tech chief Henna Virkkunen said in a statement.

EU said AliExpress failed to adequately stop counterfeit sales and many detected illegal products remained online for several weeks after being identified there
It is the largest fine ever imposed under the EU’s powerful Digital Services Act (DSA), part of the bloc’s legal armoury to police big tech that entered into force in 2022.

Elon Musk’s X social media platform received a 120-million-euro fine in December last year, while the EU slapped e-commerce giant Temu with a 200-million-euro fine in May.

AliExpress criticised the “disproportionate” fine, saying in an updated statement that the EU’s decision “ignores our sound risk management framework and the significant, proactive enhancements we have made”.

The company added it would appeal the fine.

The EU said the amount took into consideration the nature of the violations, the impact on Europeans and the duration of the infringements.

AliExpress is the biggest Chinese e-commerce platform in the EU with 193 million users, while Asian fashion giant Shein and retailer Temu respectively have 156 million and 130 million users.

The EU is AliExpress’ biggest market, a senior European official said.

Under the DSA, the world’s most popular digital platforms including social media networks and online retailers must evaluate what risks they pose and take measures to tackle the dangers.

The EU said AliExpress’ “overestimated the effectiveness of its system in detecting and removing illegal products”.

Millions of products would also reappear, the EU official said. And many illegal products would be recommended to users before they were removed.

Those selling illegal goods were still able to remain active on AliExpress.

The platform also did not “adequately” stop the sale of counterfeit products because its mandatory “brand authorisation” system “proved ineffective and understaffed. Therefore, traders easily bypassed this”, the EU found.

The DSA is part of a strengthened legal weaponry to rein in what the EU views as Big Tech’s excesses, and fines can go as high as six percent of a company’s total worldwide annual turnover.

The EU official said the global turnover of Alibaba, AliExpress’ parent company, was 122 billion euros last year, but the fine was well below six percent of that.

AliExpress has to now pay the fine and present a plan to the EU by October 20 that includes what action it will take to tackle the breaches.

If it does not comply, AliExpress risks periodic penalty payments.

Virkkunen told reporters AliExpress was “cooperating very actively” with the European Commission, the EU’s digital watchdog.

The EU has stepped up its efforts in recent years to combat what it says is unfair competition from Chinese retailers, including slapping a levy of three euros this month on cheap parcels entering the 27-nation bloc.

But Virkkunen insisted the EU did not target platforms based on their origin.

“We are investigating several online platforms. So a big part of them are from the USA, many of them are from China and also from Europe,” she said.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) has restructured its benchmark CSE-30 Index, adding four companies and dropping four others following its semi-annual review, with the revised index set to take effect on 30 July 2026.

In a statement issued today (21 July), the bourse said the rebalancing was based on an assessment of listed companies' financial performance and market-related indicators.

The four companies newly included in the index are Grameenphone, Jamuna Bank, LafargeHolcim Bangladesh, and Paramount Textile PLC.

The companies dropped from the index are Crown Cement, National Credit and Commerce (NCC) Bank, Square Textiles, and Uttara Bank PLC.

Following the latest revision, the CSE-30 comprises Bangladesh Shipping Corporation, Bangladesh Steel Re-Rolling Mills (BSRM), Bangladesh Submarine Cables, Beximco Pharmaceuticals, BRAC Bank, British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company, BSRM Steels, City Bank, DBH Finance, Delta Life Insurance Company, Eastern Bank, Eastern Housing, Grameenphone, IDLC Finance, IT Consultants, Jamuna Bank, Jamuna Oil, LafargeHolcim Bangladesh, Meghna Petroleum, MJL Bangladesh, Olympic Industries, Padma Oil, Paramount Textile, Pioneer Insurance Company, Prime Bank, Sonali Paper & Board Mills, Square Pharmaceuticals, The ACME Laboratories, Unique Hotel & Resorts, and Walton Hi-Tech Industries PLC.

According to the CSE, the reconstituted CSE-30 Index represents about 44.69% of the total market capitalisation of all listed companies. On a free-float basis, its constituents account for around 43.13% of the market's total free-float capitalisation.

How companies are selected

Under the CSE's index methodology, the CSE-30 is a rules-based, free-float market capitalisation-weighted index reviewed every six months. Constituents are selected through a two-stage screening process.

In the first stage, companies must meet basic eligibility criteria, including a minimum market capitalisation of Tk600 million, at least 20% free-float shares, trading on at least 70% of trading days during the six-month review period, positive retained earnings, dividends declared in at least one of the previous two years, and no "Z" category classification.

Financial institutions on Bangladesh Bank's watchlist and companies penalised under securities laws in the past two years are also excluded.

In the second stage, eligible firms are ranked based on financial and market indicators, including net asset value (NAV) per share, earnings per share (EPS), dividend rate, price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, dividend yield, free-float ratio, price-to-book (P/B) ratio, trading frequency, number of contracts, and the length of continuous inclusion in the CSE-30. The top 30 companies are then selected.

As a free-float market capitalisation-weighted index, the CSE-30 assigns weights based only on publicly tradable shares, excluding holdings of sponsors, directors, the government, strategic investors and shares under lock-in restrictions.

The CSE has followed this methodology since 2013, aligning the index with international benchmark standards used by major global index providers such as MSCI, FTSE and S&P.

Bangladesh has the potential to achieve in a much shorter period the level of economic development that the Republic of Korea attained over the past 70 years, Kim Ji-Joon, the newly appointed South Korean ambassador to Bangladesh, said yesterday.

He made the remarks at a reception hosted by the Korea-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KBCCI) at Hotel Amari in Dhaka to welcome him, according to a press release.

Kim said Bangladesh could accelerate its path to sustainable economic growth by drawing lessons from South Korea’s development experience while avoiding the mistakes it made along the way.

Highlighting the long-standing friendship between the two countries, he stressed the importance of deepening economic ties to ensure their shared long-term prosperity. He called for greater bilateral cooperation in trade, investment, technology transfer and joint ventures.

Speaking at the event, KBCCI President Shahab Uddin Khan reaffirmed the chamber’s commitment to strengthening bilateral trade, investment and economic cooperation between Bangladesh and South Korea. Welcoming the new ambassador, he expressed confidence that Kim’s tenure would mark a new chapter in bilateral relations and help deepen the economic partnership between the two friendly nations.

Md Nazrul Islam, secretary (bilateral) at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said the economic and commercial relationship between Bangladesh and South Korea had continued to strengthen over the years.

He emphasised the need to further expand cooperation through industrialisation, technology transfer, investment promotion and human resource development, while commending the KBCCI for its role in enhancing economic ties between the two countries.

During the programme, Kim presented a certificate of merit, signed by South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun, to Shahab Uddin Khan in recognition of his contribution to strengthening economic cooperation, promoting bilateral trade and supporting South Korea’s diplomatic activities in Bangladesh.

Ambassadors and high commissioners from various countries, senior government officials, members of the diplomatic corps, business leaders and KBCCI members also attended the event.

Bangladesh has decided to participate in 50 international trade fairs across 27 countries in the current fiscal year, prioritising exhibitions featuring products from 12 sectors as part of efforts to attract more international buyers.

The decision was taken at a meeting of the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) at its office in Dhaka.

The meeting also fixed January 1 as the opening date for the 31st edition of the Dhaka International Trade Fair (DITF) next year, according to a statement released by the commerce ministry yesterday.

Many businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, do not have the financial capacity to explore foreign trade opportunities, Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir said at the meeting.

Participation in international trade fairs will help improve the business networking opportunities for these entrepreneurs, he said.

Leather and leather goods, light engineering. and agro-processing have the potential to achieve double-digit export growth, Muktadir said.

Today’s large companies started out as small businesses, so new entrepreneurs and startup founders should be provided with opportunities to grow in the future, he said.

The minister also reiterated that the government has been working to cut red tape and create a business- and investment-friendly environment in the country, the statement said.

US President Donald Trump unveiled 50 per cent tariffs on a wide range of imports from Canada on Monday in response to ​what the US administration called its discriminatory treatment of American-made cars, alcohol and dairy goods, threatening a new front in a global trade war.
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In slapping import taxes on goods ranging from ‌wine to cement and ice hockey gear, Trump invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which permits a president to impose punitive tariffs of up to 50 per cent against trading partners deemed to have discriminated against US goods. That marked the law's first known usage in nearly a century of existence.

The new tariffs, set to take effect in 30 days, would also apply to dairy products, swimming pools, furniture, fishing rods, seeds, clothing and wigs, among other items.

The US Trade Representative's office said that the tariffs would ​apply to nearly $20 billion of imports from Canada. That's about 5.2 per cent of the $382 billion worth of goods that the US imported from Canada in 2025, according to US Census Bureau data.

"While the Administration continues ​to secure fair and reciprocal trade deals with our trading partners, Canada, unlike other partners and allies, continues to retaliate against the United States for its efforts to ⁠rebalance trade and protect U.S. industry in national-security sensitive sectors," US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a statement that his government has made comprehensive proposals to resolve trade ​disputes with Washington, asserting that Trump's past tariffs violated the North American trade pact.

"This trade dispute has raised costs for families, particularly in the U.S.," he said. "Canada stands ready to engage intensively to address outstanding issues with the U.S. ​to the mutual benefit of our citizens."

The Trump administration has long complained that Canada and China implemented retaliatory measures in response to the barrage of tariffs Trump has tried to impose since returning to the White House last year.

Greer has pointedly left Canada out of negotiations under way with Mexico on changes the US wants in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade. He holds bilateral talks on USMCA in Mexico City this week.

When Trump and Carney met at the FIFA World Cup Final in New Jersey on Sunday, ​Trump demanded that Carney take action to contain wildfires that have sent smoke billowing across swaths of the US. The US president last week threatened to add the "incalculable cost" of dealing with the pollution to existing tariffs on ​Canadian goods.

FIRST USAGE

The Tariff Act of 1930 and its Section 338 are better known for massive US tariff increases and subsequent retaliation that economic historians say worsened the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Section 338 was intended to ensure countries apply tariffs ‌equally and don't ⁠give preferential rates to some countries at the expense of US exports, said John Veroneau, a US trade official in President George W. Bush's administration who has extensively researched the statute.

He said that some presidents, including Franklin D. Roosevelt, considered imposing tariffs under Section 338, but no record could be found of any president taking such action until Trump's proclamations on Monday.

"It is ironic, to say the least, to use this authority to impose tariffs to retaliate against tariffs that were imposed in response to actions taken by the U.S.," said Veroneau, senior counsel with the Covington and Burling law firm.

"These tariffs may be lawful under Section 338, but they at a minimum violate the spirit ​of Section 338, which was to create a world ​where countries apply the same tariffs on the ⁠same goods to all countries," he said, adding Trump has moved away from this principle "in a maximalist way."

After World War Two, major countries created the "most-favored-nation" tariff system through the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade to try to prevent a return to the pre-war "beggar-thy-neighbor" economic policies marked by competitive trade restrictions and currency devaluations.

Trump's new levies are ​set to take effect on August 19 and apply regardless of whether goods qualify for tariff exemptions under USMCA, although Trump exempted a range of key goods ​including energy, potash, fish, critical ⁠minerals and products already covered by Section 232 tariffs.

Among grounds for the tariffs, the White House cited Canada's "protectionist" dairy supply management system as well as tariffs and quotas on cars imported to Canada from the U.S. but not from other countries. Carney said that Canada "as is its right, merely matched" US tariffs on the auto sector that were in violation of the USMCA.

Washington also highlighted that most Canadian provinces have halted the sale of US alcohol, which they did in response ⁠to prior US ​tariffs.

The White House said Canadian imports of US motor vehicles dropped by 22 per cent and of US alcoholic beverages by 81 per cent over the ​past year.

Diamond Isinger, a former senior adviser to ex-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on US-Canada relations, said Carney would have limited ability to compel provinces to start selling American alcohol again.

“Unless there are some sort of extraordinary measures invoked here, the premiers of those provinces are the ones ​who decide whether to restock alcohol,” Isinger said.

Bangladesh's GDP growth slowed to 2.22% year-on-year at constant prices in the third quarter (January-March) of FY2025-26, down from 4.53% in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year.

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) released the third-quarter GDP estimates for FY26 today (20 July).

According to the quarterly data, the economy grew by 4.96% and 3.03% in the first and second quarters of FY26, respectively, compared with 3.91% and 3.53% in the corresponding quarters of the previous fiscal year.

At current prices, the size of the economy reached Tk15.391 trillion in the third quarter of FY2025-26, up from Tk14.192 trillion in the same quarter a year earlier.

BBS data show that growth slowed across all three major sectors – agriculture, industry and services – compared with the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Agricultural sector growth declined to 1.74% in the third quarter, from 4.61% a year earlier. The sector had grown by 2.11% and 3.68% in the first and second quarters of the current fiscal year, compared with -0.12% and 1.90% in the corresponding quarters of FY2024-25.

The industrial sector recorded negative growth of 0.28% in the third quarter, a sharp reversal from 3.33% growth in the same period last year. However, the sector had expanded by 6.82% and 1.27% in the first and second quarters of FY2025-26, compared with 4.80% and 5.78% in the corresponding quarters of the previous fiscal year.

Growth in the services sector slowed to 3.52% in the third quarter from 7.32% a year earlier. During the first and second quarters of the current fiscal year, the sector grew by 4.51% and 4.45%, compared with 4.49% and 5.84%, respectively, in the same quarters of FY2024-25.

Economists said the slowdown across all three major sectors in the third quarter, particularly the contraction in industry, signals growing concerns for the economy.

Dr Sayema Haque Bidisha, professor of economics at the University of Dhaka, said it would be inappropriate to draw policy conclusions based on GDP growth data from a single quarter.

"Quarterly growth figures are heavily influenced by the base effect – the level of growth recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. If growth was unusually high or low in the base period, the current year's growth rate may appear disproportionately different. Therefore, one quarter's data alone should not be used to assess the overall state of the economy," she said.

Bidisha added that the broader economic context of the January-March quarter should also be considered.

"National elections were held during this period, which may have affected normal economic activity and, consequently, GDP growth," she said.

However, she identified the negative growth in the industrial sector as the most worrying development.

"This is a warning signal for the economy and calls for prompt policy intervention. While very high agricultural growth is not expected, post-election changes in supply chains may also have had some impact," she said.

According to Bidisha, the performance of the industrial sector in the April-June quarter will be crucial. "If growth remains weak, major policy and strategic measures will be needed to revive the sector, as industrial growth is directly linked to employment, industrialisation and the country's overall economic expansion," she said.

Regional bloc Bimstec is pursuing alternative mechanisms to boost trade and investment among its seven member-states while negotiations on a long-pending free-trade agreement (FTA) continue, says its chief executive.
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The forum's Secretary-General, Indra Mani Pandey, explained the trade-promotion programme to journalists on Tuesday during an interaction with members of the Diplomatic Correspondents Association of Bangladesh (DCAB) at the headquarters of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec) in Dhaka.

He said the FTA negotiations remained a complex process involving multiple countries with differing priorities, but expressed optimism that progress could be made on several constituent agreements in the coming months and years.

The Bimstec FTA framework agreement was signed in 2004. Subsequently, a Trade Negotiation Committee (TNC) was established along with six working groups to negotiate six constituent agreements covering different areas of the proposed trade pact.

"The working groups have been meeting from time to time, and in some subgroups we have made significant progress. We are quite hopeful that in the coming months and years we will see progress in the finalisation of some of the constituent agreements," Pandey said.

He noted that multilateral trade negotiations naturally take longer than bilateral FTAs because member-countries seek to balance regional trade liberalisation with their respective national priorities and concerns.

"FTA is one mechanism for enhancing trade, but it is not the only mechanism."

To strengthen economic cooperation while the negotiations continue, Bimstec is promoting several complementary initiatives aimed at facilitating business and investment across the region.

Among the proposals are establishing a Bimstec Chamber of Commerce and Industry to strengthen business-to-business links, creating a platform for investment-promotion authorities to encourage cross-border investment, and exploring cooperation on common standards to reduce non-tariff barriers to trade.

Pandey said differences in standards remain a significant obstacle to expanding intra-regional trade, and member-states are examining whether greater harmonisation could help facilitate commerce.

"The goal is very clear. We need to have more trade and investment in our region. There are many opportunities to pursue, and that's where Bimstec is fully focused."

Bangladesh, which recently assumed the Bimstec chairmanship, intends to accelerate the negotiation process by convening meetings of the Trade Negotiation Committee and its working groups more frequently to provide "the much-needed push" towards concluding the pending agreements, he told the reporters.

On regional connectivity, Pandey said member-states are also working on a visa-facilitation scheme to promote business travel, tourism and people-to-people exchanges.

An expert group on visa measures agreed last year to work towards such a framework. However, discussions are continuing as the members have yet to reach a consensus on the specific provisions of the proposed scheme.

"All member-states fully understand that if we need to have more trade, more travel, more tourism and more exchanges among our member-states, ease of travel through visa facilitation is very important," he observed.

Looking ahead, Pandey has noted that Bangladesh's second year as Bimstec chair in 2027 will coincide with the organisation's 30th anniversary, raising the possibility that the next Bimstec Summit could also serve as a platform to commemorate the milestone.

He notes that Bimstec continuously reviews the implementation of its programmes through regular meetings of experts, senior officials and ministers.

Action plans are updated periodically to incorporate new areas of cooperation, with all initiatives undertaken on the basis of consensus among the seven member-states.

The global leather industry is changing rapidly. Environmental sustainability, resource efficiency, traceability and responsible production have become essential for competing in international markets. For Bangladesh, which has one of the world’s largest supplies of naturally available hides and skins, this shift presents both challenges and opportunities. At the centre of this changing landscape is the Leather Working Group (LWG), the world’s leading sustainability assessment system for leather manufacturers.

A common misconception is that LWG imposes foreign environmental standards on leather-producing countries. In reality, it does not set environmental laws. Instead, it assesses whether a tannery complies with the environmental regulations of its own country while adopting internationally recognised best practices. LWG certification should therefore be seen as internationally accepted verification of environmental compliance and responsible manufacturing.

For Bangladesh, this distinction matters. The Environment Conservation Act and the Environment Conservation Rules 2023 provide the legal framework for pollution control, environmental clearance, wastewater discharge, waste management and environmental monitoring. Many requirements assessed under the LWG protocol closely match these regulations. As a result, investment in complying with Bangladeshi environmental laws also strengthens readiness for LWG certification.

The LWG Leather Manufacturer Audit covers environmental and operational indicators including environmental management systems, chemical management, traceability, water use, energy efficiency, air emissions, waste management, occupational health and safety, emergency preparedness and governance.

Modern leather production depends on a wide range of chemicals throughout tanning and finishing. International buyers expect manufacturers to maintain strict control over chemical storage, handling, use and disposal. Effective chemical management reduces environmental risks, improves workplace safety, enhances product quality and supports sustainable production.

Water management is another key part of the certification process. Leather manufacturing requires large amounts of water. Tanneries that monitor consumption, adopt cleaner production techniques, recycle water where practical and reduce waste demonstrate environmental responsibility and operational efficiency. Buyers are also placing greater emphasis on energy efficiency as they seek suppliers with lower carbon footprints.

Traceability is one of the fastest-evolving parts of the LWG framework. Global brands increasingly want visibility across their supply chains to ensure responsible sourcing and meet sustainability commitments. Bangladesh has a natural advantage because most raw materials come from domestic livestock. Stronger traceability systems can improve transparency and increase buyers’ confidence.

Waste management and effluent treatment remain the biggest environmental challenges for Bangladesh’s leather industry. The tanning process generates large volumes of wastewater, sludge and other by-products that require proper treatment, disposal or recovery.

The relocation of tanneries from Hazaribagh to the Savar Tannery Industrial Estate was a major environmental reform. The estate was designed to support cleaner leather production through shared infrastructure, including a CETP. Although progress has been made, further improvements are needed in CETP performance, sludge management, hazardous waste handling, chromium recovery and environmental monitoring. These issues increasingly shape how international buyers judge a country’s commitment to sustainable leather production. Better environmental infrastructure strengthens not only regulatory compliance but also industry reputation, market confidence and long-term competitiveness.

The future of Bangladesh’s leather sector will depend on its ability to demonstrate environmental responsibility. Sustainable production is no longer optional. By strengthening compliance with national environmental regulations and expanding LWG certification, Bangladesh can establish itself as a trusted source of responsibly produced leather.

The writer is former director of the Institute of Leather Engineering and Technology

The ongoing forensic audit of key official statistics disclosed during the previous governments, including gross domestic product (GDP) and the consumer price index, is likely to be completed this month, according to an official.

A seven-member committee, led by Statistics and Informatics Division (SID) Secretary Md Firoz Sarker, is carrying out the audit on data produced by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The panel includes five government officials and two Dhaka University professors.

Once completed, the report will be submitted to Prime Minister’s Finance and Planning Adviser Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir. The audit comes after debate over Bangladesh’s official economic growth figures during the Awami League government.

The interim government had formed an expert taskforce to assess the quality, transparency and accessibility of official statistics. After taking office, the BNP-led government said it was prioritising an in-depth investigation and review to determine whether any official data had been incorrect or distorted.

The committee is reviewing historical GDP and consumer price index data, cross-checking BBS figures against the Bangladesh Bank records to verify sector-wise estimates

As part of that process, the SID-led committee was due to submit its report by July 15. However, it missed the deadline and now needs more time, according to planning ministry sources.

The committee is reviewing historical GDP and consumer price index data, cross-checking BBS figures against the Bangladesh Bank records to verify sector-wise estimates. It is also assessing progress on the Open Government Data initiative.

“It is a very challenging exercise because we are tracing the figures back to the source data,” said a committee member on condition of anonymity.

The committee is revisiting the GDP estimates for each financial year based on the 2005-06 base year. “Given the debate surrounding these figures, this work will be very important,” the member said.

He said the review is taking longer than expected because of the scale of the verification.

“This is a huge research exercise. We are sitting down to examine where every figure came from,” he said, adding that the team hopes to finish within the month.

Another committee member said the review is focused on strengthening the methodology rather than revisiting past growth figures.

“Our main objective is to identify methodological loopholes in GDP estimation and determine how they can be closed so that the statistics are produced more accurately,” he said.

As part of that work, the team is tracing how estimation methods evolved from the 2005-06 GDP base year to the 2015 base year and through later revisions to identify where weaknesses may have emerged.

“Our task is not to validate the populist speculative claims but to ensure the methodology is strong enough so that such concerns cannot arise in future.”

He said the review has already uncovered cases of incomplete documentation.

“In many cases, there are no records explaining how certain figures were generated. We are trying to identify those gaps so the process becomes more transparent and reliable,” he said.

“If the methodology or the process is weak, any government could face the same problem. Our objective is to strengthen the system itself,” he said.

In June, State Minister for Planning Zonayed Abdur Rahim Saki said that all past data was being re-examined.

“It is being looked into whether any information has been manipulated. The government is now emphasising in-depth investigation and review to identify incorrect and distorted data,” he said.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has instructed the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) to ensure that stockbrokers and merchant banks submit quarterly reports on negative equity, unrealised losses and related provisioning.

The move follows the discovery that several margin lenders failed to comply with a regulatory order issued in November, requiring quarterly submissions alongside board-approved action plans.

According to BSEC data, the total provisioning deficit against negative equity and unrealised losses stood at Tk9,367 crore as of May.

Under the November directives, stockbrokers, dealers and merchant banks must continue submitting the reports until the issue is fully resolved.

During the provisioning period, no new securities may be purchased through Beneficiary Owner (BO) accounts with negative equity, although existing holdings may be sold at fair market value for adjustment.

Lenders are also barred from charging interest on margin loans or portfolio management fees on such accounts and, during the extended period, may not declare or distribute cash dividends.

BSEC sources said some lenders obtained deadline extensions after submitting action plans, while others failed to do so and were required to complete full provisioning by December 2025.

In a letter issued last week, the commission asked the DSE to ensure all stockbrokers and merchant banks submit the prescribed quarterly reports within 10 days of the end of each calendar quarter.

BSEC Spokesperson Abul Kalam told The Business Standard, "We asked the bourses to take measures to ensure proper submission of reports to the commission."

Sumit Podder, secretary general of the Bangladesh Merchant Bankers Association (BMBA), said, "Negative equity and unrealised losses are a long-standing problem that will not be solved easily."

"Despite that, we have improved a lot in terms of maintaining provisions, as the majority of institutions received deadline extensions," he said, adding, "If the capital market performs well in the future, we hope all the lenders currently bearing these woes will be able to overcome them."

Tk10,978cr in negative equity

BSEC documents show total negative equity stood at Tk10,978 crore at the end of May. Negative equity arises when the market value of assets securing margin loans falls below the outstanding loan balance.

Of the total, Tk7,820 crore was principal and Tk2,726.87 crore accrued interest, indicating that continued interest charges significantly contributed to the problem. Although many loans remained unrecovered, lenders continued charging interest until BSEC barred the practice for BO accounts with negative equity.

Against the total negative equity, stockbrokers and merchant banks maintained Tk3,668.46 crore in provisions, leaving a Tk7,309.61 crore shortfall.

Among them, 102 DSE trading right entitlement certificate (TREC) holders extended Tk6,033 crore in margin loans, comprising Tk4,935 crore in principal and Tk1,116 crore in interest, while maintaining Tk1,810.22 crore in provisions. Merchant banks kept Tk1,855 crore in provisions against their Tk4,920 crore in negative equity.

Tk2,058cr deficit in unrealised losses

BSEC documents show unrealised losses reached Tk4,042 crore as of May. Unrealised losses occur when an asset's market value falls below its purchase price without being sold.

Portfolio managers are required to maintain provisions against such losses, but prolonged market volatility has eroded portfolios and weakened their ability to meet provisioning requirements.

Against the Tk4,042 crore in unrealised losses, brokerage houses and merchant banks maintained Tk1,984 crore in provisions, leaving a Tk2,058 crore deficit.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) staged a robust recovery yesterday, with the benchmark index gaining 41 points to settle at 5,898, just a fraction away from the psychological threshold of 5,900.

This rebound follows a brief period of corrective momentum and was primarily fuelled by renewed investor optimism regarding potential favourable revisions to the proposed margin lending rules, according to market insiders.

Market participation saw a healthy spike as total turnover jumped by 17% to reach Tk1,129 crore, indicating that liquidity is flowing back into the secondary market with renewed vigour.

According to the daily market review by EBL Securities, the capital bourse maintained a firm upward trajectory from the opening bell. The surge was driven by sustained buying interest and strengthening investor participation, which led to broad-based price appreciation across the majority of traded scrips, it said.

A significant highlight of the day was the stabilisation of the insurance sector, which had faced heavy selling pressure in recent sessions, said EBL Securities. Investors appeared to be banking on potential regulatory easing regarding marginable criteria for insurers, while simultaneously rotating their interest toward non-bank financial institution (NBFI) stocks in anticipation of short-term gains, it added.

Sheltech Brokerage Limited noted that the session's performance was shaped by this renewed buying interest following the recent correction. Early momentum pushed the DSEX to an intraday high of 5,915.68 points.

Although orderly profit-taking led to a moderate pullback in the mid-session, the underlying buying pressure remained sufficiently strong to absorb the sell-offs, allowing the benchmark index to ultimately retain most of its early gains, it said.

The upcoming half-year earnings season is also serving as a psychological catalyst, prompting investors to take positions in fundamentally strong stocks, said Sheltech Brokerage.

On the sectoral front, the textile sector dominated market activity, accounting for 18.4% of the total turnover, followed by the pharmaceutical and banking sectors.

Market breadth was overwhelmingly positive, with 294 issues advancing compared to only 58 that declined, while 41 remained unchanged.

Almost all sectors posted positive returns, with mutual funds leading the gains at 4.5%, followed by financial institutions at 3.6% and the tannery sector at 2.4%. In contrast, only the services and pharmaceutical sectors faced marginal corrections of 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively.

Individual stock performance was highlighted by National Polymer, which topped the gainers' list with a 9.94% jump. It was followed by several mutual funds, including IFIC Bank 1st Mutual Fund, Exim Bank 1st Mutual Fund, and MBL First Mutual Fund, all of which saw robust price appreciation.

On the liquidity front, Queen South Textile Mills emerged as the most-traded stock, followed by Malek Spinning, LankaBangla Finance, IPDC Finance, and Dragon Sweater.

On the losing side, Islami Insurance and ACI Formulation were among the few scrips that faced notable corrections.

The bullish sentiment was mirrored at the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), where the key indices also settled in green territory. The broad CASPI index rose by 60 points to settle at 15,798, while the Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) gained 37 points. Trading activity at the port city bourse saw a significant 71% jump, reaching a turnover of Tk19 crore.

Southeast Bank reported that its consolidated net profit jumped by 64% in the first half of this year.

According to its price-sensitive statement approved at a board meeting held today (21 July), the bank posted the consolidated net profit of Tk218.77 crore in January-June of 2026, which was significantly higher from Tk133.53 crore in the same period of 2025.

During the first half, its consolidated earnings per share stood at Tk1.64, which was Tk1 a year ago.

The bank said net profit increased due to higher investment income and lower provisions against loans and advances compared to the previous period.

Pressures of climate-change impacts on Bangladesh's balance-of-payments (BoP) situation haunts their mind as an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team begins diagnosing in-depth the country's climate policy before framing a new lending package, sources say.

In the previous US$5.5-billion credit programme for Bangladesh, the IMF had earmarked US$1.3 billion under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement.

However, the Fund had disbursed funds totaling $887 million under the RSF before Bangladesh new administration announced the scrapping of the programme while seeking a new lending arrangement.

Officials have said a six-member team of the IMF, led by Senior Economist Suphachol Suphachalasai, is now in Dhaka on a two-week mission and having discussion with the officials of different ministries and divisions concerned on the climate issues.

As part of the spadework, they are assessing Bangladesh's climate-policy framework, climate-related fiscal arrangements, adaptation and mitigation policies, disaster-risk financing, and climate-finance architecture to develop findings and recommendations for the authorities concerned.

"Like the previous loan programme, impacts of climate change on Bangladesh's overall economy and steps for mitigation will get priority in the proposed new programme," a senior finance division official told The Financial Express Tuesday.

He said the IMF team, thus, is now diagnosing the overall climate-related measures Bangladesh now pursues to fight its impacts.

Finance officials say Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to the adverse impacts of climate change, even though it accounts for less than 0.43 per cent of global greenhouse-gas emissions.

The country's climate-relevant budgetary allocation is rising every year to cope up with the impacts of climate change. In the current fiscal year, the government has allocated some Tk 517 billion in favour of 25 ministries and divisions for taking measures to fight climate-related challenges, up from the previous year's allocation of Tk 469 billion.

Data show while adaptation continues to receive the largest share of climate financing, with allocations coming to Tk 389 billion in the current fiscal year, the country is also spending a significant amount of Tk 99.25 billion for mitigation efforts.

According to different estimations, climate change costs Bangladesh between $3.0 billion and $4.0 billion each year in direct disaster-related damages. The economic losses reach up to $24 billion per annum when taken into account the extreme heat and reduced labour productivity that severely impacts agriculture and informal labour sectors.

"The significant budgetary spending to fight the impacts of climate change puts severe pressures on Bangladesh's economy, minimising scopes to finance development works of the country," another finance official said.

Sources have said at the meetings with the finance division officials this week the IMF team took stock of climate-and disaster-related works, status of Bangladesh Climate Development Partnership (BCDP), National Strategy for Disaster Risk Financing, the considerations of climate-related risks in macro-fiscal planning, budgeting and allocations of climate- and disaster-related spending, and subsidies on fossil fuels, electricity, and water supply.

At the National Board of Revenue, they inquired about tax policies related to electricity, fossil fuels, and petroleum products, and tax policies on natural and mineral resources, source said.

The IMF team at the Power Division discussed power-sector policies and strategies, renewable energy and energy efficiency, power-sector performance and reform roadmap, electricity subsidies, including capacity charge, electricity-tariff structure, and electric vehicle-sector development and implications.

At the ministry of environment, the visiting team discussed climate-related strategies, laws, and policies, NDC 3.0 and NAP implementation, status of Bangladesh Climate Development Partnership (BCDP), Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund, Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund and sustainable forest management.

Sources said at the meeting with central bank officials, they also took updates on climate-related financial-sector policy and initiatives, sustainable financing and climate finance, role of banks and financial institutions in climate-and disaster-risk management, and financial-sector resilience and climate-stress testing.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has drafted new rules to make margin lending easier, allowing investors to borrow money from their brokerage to buy shares, using shares they already own as collateral.

The draft has been published for stakeholder comment. BSEC argues that rules brought in by the previous commission made these loans too hard to get.

Under the new proposal, whether a stock qualifies for margin lending would depend on things like the company’s book value and how regularly it has paid dividends.

The real question is whether relaxing these rules will actually help the market. While it may inject some liquidity into the stock market in the short term, could it also create greater risks over the longer term?

It is worth recalling that the previous commission’s primary justification for tightening the flow of margin loans was that many investors had borrowed money to purchase shares but failed to manage their leveraged positions properly, resulting in significant losses.

That’s the basic danger of a margin loan. The money has to be paid back no matter what happens to the share price. If the price falls far enough, the broker is supposed to sell the borrower’s shares automatically to recover the loan -- this is called “forced selling.”

When many investors are in this position at once, forced selling by one can push prices down further, which triggers more forced selling elsewhere, and the whole market slides.

The aftermath of the 2011 stock market crash -- one of the worst in Bangladesh’s stock market history -- offers an important lesson. At that time, brokerage houses were not allowed to execute forced sales of clients’ shares.

Many brokers ended up owing more than their clients’ accounts were worth -- what’s called “negative equity” -- and some still haven’t recovered. The episode also placed the capital market under prolonged stress.

So, what is the solution? Margin loans exist in stock markets all over the world, and normally that’s fine. However, in a market like Bangladesh, where there is a shortage of fundamentally strong listed companies and investors often speculate on manipulated stocks, borrowing money to invest in equities is extremely risky. Borrowing to invest in that kind of market doesn’t only put individual investors at risk but it can also leave brokerages and other institutions exposed if they cannot force-sell in time.

The real problem, hence, becomes the question about whether forced selling can actually be executed if market conditions warrant it. In Bangladesh, the pattern has been that investors take margin loans to buy speculative stocks, and when prices fall and their shares are due to be sold off, they often take to the streets to protest instead.

In a market investors hold such a mindset, margin lending isn’t just a risk-management issue, it can turn into a political headache for the government, since forced selling has a history of triggering street protests. So why is BSEC moving to ease it?

There seem to be two justifications. One is that it should be up to lenders and borrowers to weigh their own risk before extending or taking a loan. But that only works if investors act rationally. Irrational, herd-driven investing is one of the well-known weaknesses of Bangladesh’s stock market.

The second argument could be that easier loans mean more money flowing into the market, which should boost trading activity. However, the local capital market’s problem isn’t a shortage of money, it’s a shortage of good companies to invest that money in. Pumping in more borrowed cash without more solid companies to absorb it is unlikely to produce sustainable benefits. In the long run, it may not serve anyone’s interests.

The proposed framework for which stocks qualify for margin loans -- book value, dividend history -- raise another concern: how reliable are those financial indicators? After all, investors relied on the published financial statements of several Islamic banks when purchasing their shares over the last decade. Some of these banks were classified as Category A companies, consistently paid attractive dividends, and reported strong earnings per share. Later, it turned out the banks’ financial statements had been inflated, and the real value of those shares collapsed.

In such an ecosystem, why should capital market intermediaries also be exposed to additional risks by extending margin loans?

To be fair, plenty of listed companies do report genuine, trustworthy profit and book-value figures, and those numbers are still useful. But they shouldn’t be the only test for whether a stock is safe to buy on margin. Other checks are needed too.

Most importantly, until Bangladesh’s financial reporting and credit rating systems are more reliable, margin loans shouldn’t be made easier for small investors to get.

There’s also the matter of financial literacy. Many retail investors in Bangladesh don’t fully understand what they’re signing up for when they take a margin loan, which is part of why forced selling triggers protests instead of acceptance.

The problem extends beyond investors alone. In a country where the finance minister himself instructed market participants in 2012 not to execute forced sales even when portfolio equity fell below the prescribed threshold, and where the BSEC also discouraged forced selling, it is legitimate to question whether margin lending is an appropriate product for the country’s capital market.
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More than half the companies listed on Bangladesh’s stock exchanges fall into the two lower-quality tiers -- Category B and Category Z. Making margin loans easier to get in a market this heavy with weaker companies is unlikely to do much long-term good. It’s more likely to generate business for brokers and other intermediaries while adding risk to the system as a whole.

A better policy focus for the government would be attracting more genuinely strong companies to list on the stock exchange in the first place. Once high-quality companies are listed, investors will naturally return, and liquidity will improve without artificial stimulus. Capital naturally flows to opportunities where sustainable returns are available.

Equity investment should ideally be financed through personal savings rather than borrowed money. If equity investments are increasingly funded by debt, the very nature and purpose of equity financing become distorted.

It’s true that easing margin loans could give the market a short-term lift. But, from the long-term perspective, keeping margin lending as limited as reasonably possible is likely to be a healthier policy for a market like Bangladesh.

Lastly, since stocks are volatile assets, that volatility, if it moves upward, allows for rapid wealth creation through margin loans. However, when the market becomes in a falling trend, investment can evaporate very fast. Are our investors ready for that?

The upbeat remarks came after official General Administration of Customs figures showed a sharp turnaround in bilateral trade in goods. After slumping 18.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, China-US goods trade rebounded to post a 13.7 percent year-on-year gain in the second quarter.

This trade recovery aligns with fresh bilateral moves to stabilize economic relations. The Ministry of Commerce confirmed that during the latest round of China-US economic and trade consultations held in May, the two sides reached an agreement to negotiate a reciprocal tariff cut framework via a newly established trade council. The deal would cover goods valued at $30 billion or more from each country.

Although neither side has released a final product list, trade analysts expect the tariff cuts to cover textiles, footwear, consumer goods, electronic components, industrial machinery parts, chemicals, plastics and agricultural products, while excluding sectors such as advanced semiconductors and strategic resources.

Diao Daming, a professor of international relations at the Beijing-based Renmin University of China, said recent progress in the China-US economic and trade talks has helped bolster business confidence across the world and is creating conditions for more predictable trade and investment.

Yu Xinding, a professor of international trade at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, said that once implemented, the new tariff framework will support further growth in China-US trade while setting a positive example for resolving trade disputes through dialogue.

“Faced with multifaceted costs triggered by tariffs, this move offers a practical solution to help reverse trade distortions created by previous tariffs,” said Yu. “The initiative goes far beyond lowering tariffs on selected goods. Equal consultations will improve market access, ease corporate burdens and restore bilateral trade to market-oriented, mutually beneficial dynamics.”

Though modest relative to overall China-US trade, the planned tariff relief targets products with clear market demand and practical benefits, delivering early, verifiable results that can strengthen confidence in two-way economic ties, she added.

While the recent rebound in bilateral trade points to improving momentum, analysts cautioned that the relationship remains subject to structural challenges and external uncertainties, despite the progress made through dialogue.

Ma Xue, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said that strategic competition between China and the US in high-tech sectors will continue to intensify, while tighter controls on semiconductors, artificial intelligence and critical minerals, alongside geopolitical tensions, could weigh on the bilateral trade climate.

“Overall, institutionalized consultations and differentiated management of disputes could help offset short-term political disruptions,” Ma said. “Although disagreements and periodic bargaining will persist, structured cooperation, accompanied by occasional friction in specific sectors, is likely to become the new normal in bilateral economic ties.”

Data from the General Administration of Customs also showed that China-US goods trade reached 2 trillion yuan ($295 billion) in the first half of the year, accounting for 7.9 percent of China’s total foreign trade.

James Zimmerman, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said he hopes this year will be a productive one for China-US relations, noting that current China-US trade policy is increasingly characterized by a “managed trade” approach centered on reciprocity.

Saying that engagement is in the best interest of the US, Zimmerman reiterated that China brings real value to US consumers and benefits Washington’s long-term economic interests.

Similar views were expressed by Jim Sutter, CEO of the US Soybean Export Council. “The recent announcement on tariff reductions is a positive signal. We hope the commitments made during the talks will soon be translated into concrete policy measures,” he said.

Such optimism also resonates with US industrial companies stepping up long-term investment and innovation in China. Lin Chunmei, president and general manager of Corning China, said that as AI reshapes the global industrial landscape and drives demand for advanced materials and computing infrastructure, the US industrial materials manufacturer has evolved from technology introduction to collaborative innovation in China.

Corning will deepen local innovation, support next-generation computing infrastructure and contribute to the upgrading of China’s industrial ecosystem, she said.

The company’s confidence also comes as China continues to strengthen its position in advanced manufacturing and high-tech exports. In the first half of 2026, the country’s exports of integrated circuits surged 88.7 percent year-on-year, while exports of electronic components rose 62.6 percent, statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed on Monday.

The United States is set to impose new tariffs that could hit dozens of countries soon, trade envoy Jamieson Greer signaled Tuesday, with President Donald Trump's temporary global levies due to expire this week.

The Trump administration has prepared fresh tariffs targeting 60 trading partners over their alleged failures to act against forced labor, as officials push to rebuild the US leader's trade agenda after legal setbacks.

"We expect to see some action soon," Greer told CNBC when asked if new duties were incoming. He did not specify a timeline.

Trump imposed a 10-percent global duty this year after a swath of his tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court in February, but this levy expires on Friday.

US proposes new tariffs on Bangladesh, 59 others over forced labour concerns

Analysts expect that new tariffs over forced labor concerns -- set between 10 percent and 12.5 percent -- would replace these temporary duties.

They come as Trump makes a renewed push to use tariffs as leverage against US trading partners, sparking fears of retaliation and diplomatic tensions.

Washington announced a fresh 25-percent duty on certain Brazilian goods last week, and on Monday unveiled a 50-percent levy on many Canadian products to take effect in 30 days.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday that he was looking at "all options," adding that he and Trump had agreed to "intensify discussions" in the coming weeks on a possible deal.

On Tuesday, Trump announced a new 100 percent sector-specific tariff on imported generic drugs to take effect from August 2028, with that level rising to 200 percent in 2029.

For now, the US leader said the tariff on generic drugs would be cut to zero from August 2026, in an effort to build a window for the onshoring of such pharmaceutical production to the United States.

Forced labor concerns

Greer said Tuesday that new action on forced labor will cover the majority of US trade, with the moves likely to reignite trade tensions.

A 10-percent tariff rate would hit US imports from partners including Canada, the European Union, Mexico, Taiwan and the United Kingdom. They were found to have taken steps against forced labor.

Goods from over 40 other major economies like China, India and Japan face a 12.5 percent levy.

The EU previously said that it considers tariffs imposed on these grounds "unjustified."

Canada pressure

Washington's planned 50-percent tariff on Canada also comes as US-Mexico talks over a North American free trade pact intensify.

Washington recently declined to extend the accord in its current form.

Greer is set to travel to Mexico from Wednesday to Friday for discussions linked to a joint review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

But negotiations with Canada have proceeded at a slower pace. Carney on Tuesday did not suggest that he would head to Washington for talks.

Some lawyers see Trump's use of an untested legal provision -- Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 -- as a means to gain leverage over Canada in USMCA negotiations.

Trade lawyer Dave Townsend of Dorsey & Whitney added that higher tariffs "appear to be aimed at encouraging an agreement between Canada and the United States, or in retaliation for the failure to reach such agreement, or both."

The question, he said, is whether both sides will start a "cycle of escalation and retaliation."

Crucially, Trump's latest salvo will not exempt affected Canadian products entering his country under the USMCA.

Trump told reporters Tuesday that the Canada tariffs were unrelated to his earlier threats over wildfire smoke that descended into the United States.

Brazil tensions

US plans for a 25-percent tariff on Brazilian goods over accusations of unfair trade practices have separately drawn a sharp rebuke from the Latin American giant.

The levy is due to take effect Wednesday, while shaping up as a major campaign flashpoint just months before Brazil's presidential election.

A range of products like beef, coffee and certain aircraft parts will be exempted, as will some goods that the United States does not produce.

Still, the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil recently warned that Washington's measure places Brazil among countries "facing the most restrictive conditions for access to the US market," affecting more than $11 billion in exports.