Bangladesh Bank yesterday purchased $50 million from four commercial banks at a cut-off rate of Tk 122.75 per US dollar, as strong remittance earnings boosted inflows.

Remittance inflows reached an all-time high of $3.75 billion in March. Inflows stood at $1.60 billion between April 1 and April 14, up 25.2 percent year-on-year, Bangladesh Bank data shows.

The banking regulator on Wednesday resumed dollar purchases after one and a half months, buying $70 million from Islami Bank Bangladesh.

With the latest transaction, the central bank’s total dollar purchases for April rose to $120 million, officials said.

Cumulatively, the central bank has bought $5.61 billion from the market so far in the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26).

Bangladesh Bank began purchasing dollars at the start of the current fiscal year as supply increased, supported by higher export earnings and remittance inflows.

However, between FY21 and FY25, Bangladesh Bank sold more than $25 billion from its foreign exchange reserves to meet import payments for fuel, fertiliser, and food.

Officials of the central bank said that the country’s forex market is currently quite liquid due to high remittance inflows ahead of Eid-ul-Adha.

On the other hand, demand for imports, except for fuel, is set to increase, which is why the Bangladesh Bank is purchasing US dollars from the market, an official added.

Following the recent dollar purchases, gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $35.03 billion on Thursday, up from $34.87 billion a day earlier.

Industry insiders said that the central bank is planning to increase its foreign exchange reserves, as pressure on the forex market is likely to rise in the upcoming days due to higher global oil prices stemming from the Middle East crisis.

On Thursday, the interbank exchange rate of the US dollar stood at Tk 122.70 per dollar, down from Tk 122.75 just two days earlier, reflecting a liquid foreign exchange market.

Gold prices extended gains on Friday, supported by a ‌weaker dollar and comments from Iran’s foreign minister that passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains open during the ceasefire, which pushed oil prices lower and eased some inflation concerns.

Spot gold was up 1.5 percent ​at $4,861.32 per ounce at 1:58 p.m. ET (1758 GMT), rising more than 2 percent so ​far this week.

US gold futures settled 1.5 percent higher at $4,879.60.

The passage of vessels through the strait will be on the coordinated route as already announced by the Ports and Maritime ​Organisation of Iran, Iran’s foreign minister said in a post on X. US President Donald ​Trump said talks could take place this weekend and he believed a deal to end the Iran war would come “soon”.

“Reopening the strait was a key event, and with oil prices under pressure, it is expected ​to ease inflation concerns and revive expectations of interest rate cuts - all good news ​for gold,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Gold prices could see ‌short-term gains back above the $5,000 per ounce level, he added.

The US dollar and oil prices extended their fall after the comments on Hormuz opening. A weaker US currency makes bullion more attractive to holders of other currencies.

The core area of Beijing's Satellite Town, designed as a hub ​for satellite manufacturers and operators, ‌will be completed in the second half of 2026, state-owned media Beijing Daily reported on ​Saturday.

- Commercial launches now account ​for over 60% of all space launches ⁠and a number of companies are ​rushing to go public, Beijing Daily ​said.

- Gao Yibin, head of the Strategic Research Department at Future Aerospace, said with the acceleration ​of launch approvals, the localisation of ​components and the continued injection of capital by ‌industrial ⁠funds, China's trillion-yuan commercial space market is moving towards standardisation and scale

- "The accelerated implementation of scenarios such as low-Earth ​orbit constellation ​networking, satellite ⁠internet, space computing power, and 6G air-space-ground integration suggests sustained ​growth is expected in 2026," ​said ⁠Gao.

- The Beijing Satellite Town will provide the support to develop the aerospace ⁠industry ​by fostering industrial clustering ​and enabling talent, capital and technology to flow efficiently.

China's economy picked up speed early in 2026, riding an export surge before the Iran war sent energy costs soaring and put global demand - vital to Beijing's growth ambitions - at risk.

The 5.0% year-on-year pace in the first quarter sits at the top of China's full-year target range of 4.5%-5.0%, highlighting a resilience that sets it apart from much of Asia, helped by ample strategic oil reserves and a diversified energy mix.

Yet the Middle East conflict lays bare a core vulnerability: an export-led growth model that delivers annual trade surpluses the size of the Dutch economy depends on open sea lanes - for China and for the customers it sells to.

And as the world's biggest energy importer and manufacturing powerhouse, soaring oil prices threaten to drive up production costs and squeeze already thin margins at factories that employ hundreds of millions of people. The longer the conflict drags on, the higher the risks, and the pressure is already mounting.

Peng Xin, general manager of Guangdong Rongsu New Materials, which buys petrochemical feedstock from refineries and turns it into plastic pellets for injection-moulding factories, says prices for two types of nylon spiked roughly 40%-60%.

Peng is passing the increases on, while some of his customers rush to place orders and stockpile before costs climb further.

"The current coping method is to negotiate the price for every single order. If you accept my price, we cooperate. Otherwise, there's nothing we can do," he said.

"The entire industry chain is under pressure."

Imbalances expose China to global demand risks

The first-quarter GDP growth beat forecasts of 4.8% and October-December's three-year low of 4.5%, which a statistics bureau official described as a "rare and commendable" achievement, while warning of a "complex and volatile" external environment.

But the trade data for March earlier this week pointed to strains. Exports grew just 2.5% last month, slowing sharply from 21.8% in January–February.

And while factory-gate prices rose out of deflation in March for the first time in more than three years, analysts warn "bad inflation" driven by input costs could be even worse for growth.

"The solid start to the year on the back of strong export performance suggests the direct impact of the Middle East conflict remains contained for now," said Junyu Tan, North Asia economist at Coface.

"But the outlook is not all rosy despite China's relative resilience," Tan added. "The export engine could still be constrained by weaker global demand if the conflict persists."

And the economy remains imbalanced, with consumers unlikely to pick up the slack if exports falter.

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, grew 1.7% last month, down from 2.8% in January-February, and - as has been the norm in recent years - underperformed industrial output, which rose 5.7% in March versus 6.3% in the first two months.

Lending data earlier this week also showed sluggish credit demand from households and businesses.

Breaking China's protracted property slump will be critical to reviving consumption, but fresh data showing new home prices still falling suggest further pain for the country's embattled developers.

"On one hand you see resilience - the Iran war's impact on China is very limited. On the other hand you see imbalance - a strong export sector versus modest domestic demand," said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Beijing to ramp up stimulus if exports slow

Analysts do not expect the central bank to ease policy significantly, but say Beijing could deploy more fiscal firepower if the target comes under threat, adding to a debt burden more than three times the size of the economy.

Fiscal expenditure rose 3.6% in January–February, picking up from a 1% increase in 2025.

"The net exports' contribution to Chinese growth could turn negative in the second quarter," said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group.

"If that happens, then the domestic infrastructure spending and fiscal spending will step up in order to bridge the gap."

There is one silver lining for China, however. Cut off from the West after invading Ukraine, Russia now supplies it with discounted oil and gas. Heavy use of coal, rapid expansion of renewables and a growing electric vehicle fleet further shield China from energy shocks.

As the Iran crisis jolts markets, Chinese manufacturers may emerge in better shape than rivals in Europe and elsewhere, where production costs rise even faster.

"In a cost-push inflation cycle, firms normally cannot fully pass on the cost increase to consumers, and this will hit their profit margin," said EIU's Xu.

"That said, Chinese manufacturers still enjoy lower production costs relative to peers in other countries. That will help to preserve, if not increase, their global market share."

The Gulf energy crisis isn’t over. Ever since the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, regional tumult has throttled worldwide oil and gas supplies. On Friday, Iranian Foreign ​Minister Abbas Araqchi declared the opening of the key Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, through which a fifth of global oil and ‌gas shipments typically transit daily — part of a 10-day ceasefire that now encompasses hostilities in Lebanon. The question is whether investors are right in their apparent sense that the acute phase of the impasse is giving way to a longer-term chronic period, or whether energy prices are going to snap back up again.

For now, the mood is ​one of relief. Brent futures plummeted below $90 a barrel on Friday morning, having neared $120 late last month. In Europe, where gas storage ​levels are near the lowest they’ve been since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, May futures priced off the Dutch TTF benchmark collapsed to under 39 euros per megawatt-hour, from a mid-March high above 60 euros per MWh.

The reaction is understandable. Morgan Stanley analysts envisioned ​prices rising to perhaps $150 per barrel if the situation escalated. Already, at the recent level of $110 a barrel, the bank predicted that Asian GDP growth ​would fall from 5 percent to 4.2 percent this year. The International Monetary Fund similarly cut its forecast for global economic activity. The initial policy response sought to stem the worst effects. Price caps in Asia helped hold domestic fuel-price rises to only 16 percent, adjusting for purchasing power, well below a 53 percent increase in oil prices in local currencies, Morgan ​Stanley reckons. Though presented in broader terms, the UK government has said it will eliminate a carbon tax on natural gas generation.

Any sense of ​normalization needs to be qualified. As Gulf oil and gas storage filled, producers with nowhere to shift their product have shuttered output. War-ravaged infrastructure must be rebuilt. Ships take ‌time to reach port, with full resumption of traffic maybe months away.

A return to that daily norm of 100-plus ships is also far from guaranteed. President Trump’s promise to continue blockading Iran remains. And Araqchi noted that tankers must still coordinate with Iranian authorities: whether this means the country will continue extracting tolls for safe passage is unclear. Fresh costs or risks of re-erupting conflict could lead to a perhaps $10 per barrel oil price premium, experts previously told ​Breakingviews.

If the crisis is in its ​chronic phase, there are other implications. Any deal between Iran and the US to curb Tehran’s nuclear enrichment may not last — after all, the one struck a decade ago by President Barack Obama didn’t. Other consequences abound: Japan is seeking to restart nuclear reactors; ​China raised its target for renewable energy. Consumers too, will respond, judging by reports of frenzied electric-vehicle buying.

Brent prices ​are still meaningfully higher than their pre-conflict low-$70s a barrel in late February. Even still, they could prove to be too low. In a post on social media network X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on April 17 that “passage for all commercial vessels” through the Strait of Hormuz is “declared completely open for the ​remaining period” of a ceasefire that has now extended to Lebanon.

In a subsequent post ​on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump also said that the Strait is “completely open,” but added that a “naval blockade” will remain in place “as it pertains to Iran,” until “our transaction” is complete. ​US and Iranian negotiators are working towards a peace plan, Axios reported.

Bangladesh’s garment sector is going through a period of sustained pressure as the war in the Middle East disrupts production and international retailers scale back orders.

Western retailers are expected to cut apparel orders by up to 10 percent next season, as higher clothing prices dampen demand and unsold stock piles up in stores.

The latest setback is another blow for local manufacturers, who are already dealing with frequent load shedding, rising transport costs and a deepening fuel crunch following the US-Israel war on Iran.

Exporters say the war has already driven up raw material import bills and freight charges for shipments abroad.

The readymade garment sector, which accounts for more than 80 percent of national export earnings, had only just begun to steady itself after reciprocal tariff turbulence.

But now, conditions are combining to create a perfect storm for the readymade garment sector. Many fear the combined effect could lead to a decline in future orders.

Preferring anonymity, a senior official of a leading European buyer said that overall, 8 percent to 10 percent of garment work orders will be cut for the next season as buyers begin placing orders.

He said retailers and brands across the West are still burdened with unsold winter merchandise, while goods for the current season have already arrived. As a result, orders for the next cycle have slowed.

Amid the fuel crisis, the official said freight costs inside Bangladesh have also climbed. The fare of goods-laden trucks plying between Dhaka and Chattogram has risen, despite no official increase in petroleum prices.

Truck operators, citing fuel rationing, have raised per-truck charges to Tk 50,000 from Tk 38,000. On average, he said fares have increased by around 20 percent since the outbreak of the war.

Moreover, factories that depend on diesel generators are facing mounting disruption. Many report delays in getting adequate supplies, while cotton prices have risen, pushing yarn costs up by 17 percent to 18 percent.

“But buyers are reluctant to absorb higher prices,” said the official. “The consumers will not pay higher prices during the bad times because of an increase in the cost of production. So, at the end of the year, the overall export growth in the garment sector may be much lower than last year.”

Another European buyer, also requesting anonymity, said that the war has slowed down the business and the recovery is still very uncertain.

He added that demand for outerwear in Europe could rise next season as higher energy prices prompt consumers to buy warmer clothing. However, inventories are still elevated.

Ramzul Seraj, managing director of Elite Garments Ltd, which exports to the United States, said demand for garment items in the US has weakened, while factory output in Bangladesh has been hit by diesel shortages.

Delays in production could force some exporters to use more expensive air shipments to meet delivery deadlines, he added.

Masud Kabir, managing director of Motex Fashion, a Gazipur-based sweater factory, said he receives diesel using a special card introduced by the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA). But the supply falls short of covering nearly eight hours of load-shedding.

He can run the factory with the diesel collected from a nearby petrol pump for three and a half hours, he said. As a result, production has suffered.

Anwar Ul Alam Chowdhury, chairman of Evince Group, said the government is supplying diesel, but factories require larger volumes to operate generators smoothly.

Md Fazlul Hoque, managing director of Plummy Fashions, said inadequate diesel supplies have also disrupted his operations. At the same time, freight charges for sea shipments have increased, along with prices of cotton, yarn and polyester.

The combined effect, Hoque said, is a likely decline in future orders.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), said some competing countries such as Turkey are expanding exports despite the war, helped by their proximity to Europe and the United States and more reliable energy supplies.

He also expressed concern that recurring two-to-three-hour power cuts could lead to greater reliance on costly air freight.

BGMEA Director Faisal Samad said the association is in contact with buyers, urging them to take into account the exceptional circumstances created by the global oil crisis. Since April 13, member factories have been able to access diesel on a priority basis through a special card facility.

“Even so, overall productivity has declined because of insufficient fuel supplies,” he said.

BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan said buyers also want factories to keep running as this is a global crisis.

The DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) has teamed up with the Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) to foster sustainable development, enhance efficiency, and strengthen international cooperation in Bangladesh’s capital market.

Takashi Hibino, chairman and CEO of JSDA, and Saiful Islam, president of DBA, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on April 9, according to a press release issued by the DBA today.

Under the agreement, the two organisations will collaborate in several key areas to support the development of the securities market, including the exchange of laws and regulations related to financial investment businesses and capital markets.

They will also work on developing governance frameworks, policy-making processes, and operational practices of self-regulatory organisations; strengthening supervision and compliance mechanisms; enhancing efficient financial transaction systems; fostering innovation in investment instruments and services; and expanding investor education programmes.

Additionally, both organisations will extend cooperation and consultation on other areas of mutual interest as needed.

Commenting on the agreement, the DBA president said the deal represents a significant advancement for Bangladesh’s capital market.

Partnering with a well-established and experienced self-regulatory organisation like JSDA will play a crucial role in strengthening market structure, governance, and institutional capacity, he said.

“We believe this collaboration will facilitate the exchange of global best practices and contribute to making our capital market more modern, transparent, and investor-friendly.”

Islam expressed optimism that the MoU would help build a more organised, dynamic, and internationally aligned capital market in Bangladesh, benefiting all market participants.

The heads of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) yesterday underscored the importance of close cooperation to support stability and safeguard development progress amid heightened global uncertainty and mounting pressures on member economies.

Meeting on the sidelines of the World Bank Group–International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings, the heads noted that the impacts of current global developments, including the evolving situation in the Middle East, are being felt through higher energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and tighter financial conditions.

“MDBs are working more closely than ever to support our members and clients through a complex and evolving global environment,” said Masato Kanda, president of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and current chair of the MDB Heads Group, according to a press release.

The MDB Heads Group includes the African Development Bank, ADB, AIIB, European Investment Bank, and the World Bank Group, among others.

The institutions will combine financial strength and partnerships to help countries manage immediate pressures and build long-term resilience, he added.

Reaffirming a shared commitment to deep collaboration, the group focused on private sector development, job creation, and infrastructure.

To facilitate this, the heads agreed to establish a working group to mobilise private finance and expand financing capacity through originate-to-distribute approaches.

The leaders also recognised the importance of increasing credit risk transparency in emerging markets through the Global Emerging Markets (GEMs) consortium.

They pledged to scale up local currency financing and develop domestic financial markets to mitigate exchange rate risks.

For sector-specific resilience, the MDBs are strengthening collaboration on critical minerals to support responsible supply chains. They also launched Water Forward, a global initiative to advance investable water systems to drive food security and prosperity.

The heads agreed on a common Value for Money procurement framework to ensure the sustainability of financed projects.

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned Wednesday of difficult times ahead for the global economy if war in the Middle East is unresolved and oil prices stay high, adding that inflation risks could seep into food prices.

“We must brace for tough times ahead” if the conflict persists, she told reporters at a press briefing during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s spring meetings in Washington.

The gathering brings government and financial leaders to the US capital this week, with policymakers looking to limit economic fallout from the war.

US-Israeli strikes launched against Iran on February 28 sparked Tehran’s retaliation, virtually closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for oil and fertilizers.

Energy prices have since surged, squeezing countries -- especially vulnerable economies and those dependent on oil imports from the region.

“We are concerned about risks for inflation moving into food prices should the delivery of fertilizers at a reasonable price (not be) restarted soon,” Georgieva said.

But as countries move to limit price shocks on their citizens, Georgieva urged central banks to “wait and see” before adjusting interest rates if they can do so.

She said this was particularly the case where the public has a “well-anchored” expectation of inflation being kept under control.

“If we are to move faster out of the war, it may not be necessary to take action,” she said.

But she conceded that countries where central banks lack such credibility might need to send stronger signals.

For now, “we are still at a time when a faster resolution of hostilities is possible,” she said.

Noting that fallout is “highly asymmetric,” Georgieva urged IMF member countries to come forward to the Washington-based lender if they need financial assistance during the conflict.

Low-income countries spend around 36 percent of their consumption on food, while emerging markets spend about 20 percent, said the IMF’s director of strategy Christian Mumssen in press remarks.

Advanced economies spend about nine percent, he added.

The IMF estimates for now that near-term demand for new fund financing would be in the range of $20 billion to $50 billion.

“Currently, we have 39 programs, and prospective demand for new programs from at least a dozen countries, a number of them in sub-Saharan Africa,” Georgieva said of the fund’s financial aid.

“The sooner we act, the more we would protect the economy and the people,” she added.

She stressed the need to protect fiscal sustainability as countries move to help their populations, cautioning that “untargeted measures, export controls or broad-based tax cuts” could serve to “prolong the pain of high prices.”

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over domestic fuel supply continued to erode investor confidence, keeping the Dhaka stock market on a downward trajectory throughout the week.

Although trading opened on a mildly positive note, the momentum quickly faded as selling pressure intensified. Within a few sessions, major indices slipped, reflecting growing caution among investors.

Midweek, bargain hunters briefly returned to the market, taking advantage of lower prices and triggering a short-lived recovery. However, the rebound failed to sustain due to the absence of strong positive triggers or policy support. By the week's end, selling pressure resumed, leaving the market firmly in bearish territory.

The benchmark DSEX index edged down by 0.86 points to close at 5,257. The blue-chip DS30 fell 12 points to 1,990, while the Shariah-based DSES rose slightly by 3 points to 1,066. The SME index (DSMEX) dropped sharply by 31 points to 1,054.

Despite weak sentiment, trading activity increased. Average daily turnover rose 22.2% to Tk818 crore, up from Tk670 crore in the previous week. Total weekly turnover stood at Tk3,273 crore across four sessions, slightly lower than Tk3,348 crore a week earlier.

Market capitalisation declined by 0.44% to Tk6,85,632 crore. Of the 411 issues traded, 213 advanced, 142 declined, 35 remained unchanged, and 22 saw no trading activity.

Market analysts said global instability and fears of a potential energy crisis are key factors influencing investor behaviour. Government remarks on stock market restructuring have also prompted many investors to stay on the sidelines, putting the market in a wait-and-see mode.

In its weekly review, the market showed a flat-to-negative trend with volatile movements, reflecting a lack of clear direction. Early in the week, some buying interest emerged in December-closing stocks on expectations of favourable earnings. However, worries over ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East triggered renewed selling pressure.

Subsequent sessions saw intermittent bargain hunting, but gains were limited by cautious selling in large-cap stocks ahead of corporate earnings announcements.

Sector-wise, engineering stocks led turnover with 17.2%, followed by pharmaceuticals (11.6%) and general insurance (10.3%). Performance remained mixed, with ceramic, IT, and general insurance sectors posting gains, while banking, jute, and service sectors declined.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also ended lower, with the CASPI index falling 0.08% to 14,762 and the CSCX index closing at 9,040.

Analysts remain cautious about near-term market stability unless fuel supply conditions improve, global tensions ease, and clearer policy direction emerges.

Despite a broader market downturn amid the Middle East conflict, several fundamentally weak and loss-making stocks – mostly from the non-bank financial institution (NBFI) sector – emerged as the top gainers on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) in March.

According to monthly DSE data, five of the top 10 gainers were NBFIs, led by International Leasing and Financial Services, which surged 100% to close at Tk3.20 per share. Premier Leasing and Finance rose 83.33% to Tk3.30, while People's Leasing and Financial Services and Fareast Finance each gained 76.47% to Tk3. FAS Finance and Investment also saw a 70.59% increase to Tk3.90.

The remaining gainers included textile firms Hamid Fabrics and Familytex (BD), IFIC Bank First Mutual Fund, engineering firm Atlas Bangladesh, and Pacific Denims, reflecting a mix of low-cap and speculative stocks.

In total, 390 stocks were traded during the month, of which 173 advanced, 183 declined, and 34 remained unchanged, indicating a generally weak market trend.

Sector-wise, manufacturing stocks – including pharmaceuticals, textiles, engineering, cement, and food – accounted for the largest share of turnover at 46.86%, or Tk4,785 crore out of Tk10,211 crore. The financial sector, comprising banks, NBFIs, and insurance, contributed 29.97%, while the services and miscellaneous sector made up 23.09%.

Market insiders say the sharp rise in these stocks follows a prolonged slump, with many NBFIs previously hitting rock-bottom prices amid restructuring and liquidation concerns. Such rallies are often driven by speculative trading rather than strong fundamentals.

A similar trend was observed in February, when several struggling NBFIs posted sharp price increases after steep declines, highlighting continued volatility in the segment

The government has increased retail fuel prices at the consumer level, citing rising global oil market trends.

According to a gazette notification issued by the Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Division tonight (18 April), new prices will take effect from 12am Sunday (19 April).

Under the revised structure, diesel will cost Tk115 per litre, octane Tk140, petrol Tk135 and kerosene Tk130.

The latest adjustment represents a sharp increase across all major fuel categories. Diesel has been raised by Tk15 per litre, octane by Tk20, petrol by Tk19 and kerosene by Tk18.

The notification stated that the move was necessary to maintain stability in supply and ensure adjustment with global price trends.

Earlier, on 24 March, the BERC increased jet fuel prices by around 80% for domestic routes and nearly 79% for international routes in a single adjustment.

Officials said the latest revision was intended to align domestic prices with the international market, where oil prices have surged since the beginning of the Iran war on 28 February.

The government had previously resisted increasing fuel prices despite a steep rise in import costs, fearing that a higher diesel price would trigger transport fare increases, raise commodity prices and add to inflation.

However, officials said the growing cost of subsidies eventually left the government with little choice but to increase retail rates.

Bangladesh's oil import costs have increased significantly since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supplies and forced the country to buy fuel from non-traditional sources and the spot market.

The government had kept fuel prices unchanged for April, saying it wanted to protect consumers from further hardship.

Following the start of the Iran war, crude oil prices climbed to as high as around $116 a barrel from about $70-75 before the conflict.

The increase in global fuel prices forced the state-run Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation to spend an additional Tk1,200 crore to import 10 oil consignments in March.

Long queues have persisted at filling stations in recent weeks because of fuel shortages. Officials said panic buying and hoarding were major reasons behind the shortage.

The decision to keep prices unchanged earlier was also partly aimed at discouraging hoarding by reducing the incentive to store fuel in anticipation of a future price rise.

However, as subsidy costs mounted, the government decided to pass part of the burden on to consumers.

Meanwhile, in a Facebook post, Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman criticised the hike, saying global prices are falling while Bangladesh has increased fuel rates.

He described the move as "deeply unfortunate" and said it would further burden people already struggling with rising living costs.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is holding continuous discussions with Bangladesh over the release of the remaining tranche of its ongoing loan programme, Krishna Srinivasan, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, has said.

"The [IMF] team is negotiating and is having continuous discussions with the [Bangladesh] authorities, and we will have an update down the road," he said at a press briefing in Washington, DC, on 16 April, replying to a queries including that over Bangladesh's due loan instalment.

Srinivasan said Bangladesh's revenue base remains weak by global standards, limiting the government's capacity to provide support at a time of rising economic pressure.

"People are hurting in Bangladesh, so it is even more important to use whatever resources you have to make it as targeted as possible," he said.

He added that improving revenue collection and addressing structural issues in the financial sector are critical for sustaining growth in both the short and long term.

Srinivasan also highlighted the impact of the global energy shock, noting that Bangladesh, as a major energy importer, remains vulnerable to price volatility in international markets.

"Like other countries in Asia, Bangladesh is also affected by the energy shock," he said. "We are working with the authorities in terms of policy support and programmes, and discussions are ongoing. We will have to wait and see how things pan out."

He said continued engagement between the IMF and Bangladesh will determine the outcome of the negotiations, as the country also explores options for additional external financing.

Under the $5.5 billion IMF programme, disbursements are typically made in June and December. However, the lender withheld the fifth tranche in December to engage with the newly elected government. At the time, then finance adviser Salehuddin Ahmed said $1.3 billion from two tranches could be released together in June.

Srinivasan visited Bangladesh in March and met Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury. After the meetings, the finance minister said the combined tranches were likely in June and that detailed talks would follow at the IMF Spring Meetings in April.

However, no decision has been made even after the meetings, according to a statement issued by the Bangladesh Press Wing. The finance minister also said several issues remain unresolved, with further discussions expected over the next 15 to 20 days.

The Bangladesh Bank has discouraged commercial banks from engaging in forward dollar bookings to prevent artificial supply shortages in the spot market that could drive up the greenback's price.

Speaking to The Business Standard, senior officials at the central bank said several banks sharply increased forward bookings after conflict escalated in the Middle East, prompting fears that the dollar could become more expensive in the coming months.

Forward foreign currency selling is a transaction in which a bank or another party commits to selling a specified amount of foreign currency at a pre-determined exchange rate on a future date. The mechanism is commonly used by businesses and financial institutions to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations.

Under existing Bangladesh Bank guidelines, authorised dealer banks may undertake forward sales only against the genuine needs of customers and must ensure that the contracts are intended to neutralise exchange rate risk.

Banks may buy forward from exporters, foreign currency account holders, exchange houses, and other counterparties, but are required to cover their own risk as soon as possible.

The forward price is determined by adding a premium to the current price.

According to central bank officials, banks have been verbally advised not to rely on dollars purchased from the spot market to meet forward contracts. Instead, they have been encouraged to undertake forward sales only against their own forward purchases.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said that a small number of banks had been increasing forward bookings aggressively.

"After the matter came to the attention of the Bangladesh Bank, the banks were told to avoid further forward booking because rising forward sales create pressure in the spot market, increasing the risk of a higher dollar rate," the official said.

"When banks cannot obtain enough dollars in the spot market to meet demand, the exchange rate rises. If banks continue to make excessive forward commitments, the dollar could become more expensive again," he explained.

The official said banks that had previously contributed to instability in the foreign exchange market by purchasing large amounts of dollars in May 2022 were among those increasing forward bookings this month.

"However, the Bangladesh Bank has been able to bring the situation under control before it became more serious," the official added.

Demand for forward bookings rises

Industry insiders said demand for forward bookings rose sharply from the middle of March and remained strong until the first week of April. Although demand eased somewhat by mid-April, businesses remain interested in locking in exchange rates because of uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.

Bankers said demand could rise further if the conflict continues, if there are renewed expectations of a higher dollar rate, or if disruption occurs in the Strait of Hormuz.

A senior executive at a private commercial bank said the Bangladesh Bank had instructed lenders not to use dollars bought in the spot market for forward selling.

"We have been told that forward selling should be backed only by forward buying. But that is not possible for many banks because most do not have sufficient forward purchases in stock," he said.

"At the same time, businesses are seeking more forward bookings than before."

Several leading business groups have faced difficulties securing forward contracts since the central bank began discouraging the practice.

A senior executive at one of the country's largest conglomerates said the company had approached several private banks over the past week to arrange forward contracts, but the banks refused in line with the central bank's instruction.

According to the managing directors of some banks. The central bank had recently contacted them to seek details of how their institutions had calculated forward contracts after demand increased following the outbreak of war.

Despite the rise in forward demand, bankers said the supply of dollars in the market remains relatively comfortable and the exchange rate has begun to ease after a brief rise.

According to bankers, the dollar rate started falling after the Bangladesh Bank purchased dollars from commercial banks through auctions for two consecutive days at Tk122.75.

A senior official at a leading private company said his firm settled an import letter of credit at Tk122.98 per dollar last Wednesday, compared with Tk123.10 on Tuesday.

Cenbank move questioned

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, questioned the central bank's argument that forward booking itself would increase the dollar rate.

"The pressure on the dollar is coming from international markets. The increase in the taka-dollar exchange rate in Bangladesh has broadly matched the rise in the international dollar index," he said.

He also said there was a contradiction between Bangladesh Bank's commitment to a market-based exchange rate and its intervention in the market whenever the exchange rate fluctuates.

"If banks are forced to undertake forward selling only against forward buying, or if forward booking is discouraged altogether, that is itself a form of intervention that prevents the market from functioning naturally," he said.

Arfan Ali, former managing director of Bank Asia, said forward booking should be viewed as a legitimate risk management tool.

He said the volume of foreign exchange transactions in Bangladesh remains relatively low compared with many other countries, and most businesses have not traditionally engaged in hedging.

"Businesses may not previously have felt much need for forward booking. But the war has changed the situation, so demand has increased as companies seek to reduce their risk," he said. "This market should be allowed to become more viable."

Bangladesh's gross foreign-exchange reserves surpassed US$35-billion mark on Thursday, driven by stronger remittance inflows and lower import-payment obligations, amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The country's gross forex reserves rose to $35.04 billion on the day, $33.87 billion up from the previous day, according to the central bank's traditional calculation method.

Under the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Balance of Payments International Investment Poisson Manual-six edition, generally known as BMP6, the forex reserves stood at $30.37 billion during the period under review from $30.20 billion.

"Hefty growth in inward remittances has helped boost the overall foreign exchange inflows rather than outflows, despite the Middle East conflict," a senior official of the Bangladesh Bank (BB) told The Financial Express (FE).

The amount of inward remittances grew by more than 21 per cent to $1.79 billion during the first 15 days of this month (April), up from $1.47 billion in the corresponding period of last year.Bangladesh economy analysis

According to the central banker, the country's overall import payment obligations remain relatively low, at around $6.0 billion per month, despite the volatile oil prices.

On the other hand, the central bank intervened in the forex market again on Thursday by purchasing $50 million through auction from four banks in the interbank spot market in a bid to keep the exchange rate of the US dollar against the local currency stable.

The amount was bought under the Multiple Price Auction method and the cutoff rate was Tk 122.75 per dollar, according to the central bank officials.

A day earlier, the central bank resumed dollar purchases after a six-week pause, signalling renewed intervention in the market to help stabilise the exchange rate of the US dollar with the local currency, amid a surge in remittance inflows.

The central bank purchased $70 million worth of dollars on Wednesday from a Shariah-based bank in a similar auction.

The ongoing intervention is also contributing to a gradual strengthening of the country's foreign exchange reserves, according to the officials. "We're buying US dollars from banks directly to absorb the higher inflow of remittances," another BB official said, adding that such intervention had helped keep the exchange rate, thus encouraging both exporters and remitters.

The central bank of Bangladesh has so far bought $5.61 billion from banks directly since July 13 last under the prevailing free-floating exchange rate arrangement, the central bank's latest data showed.

The DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) to enhance cooperation and support the sustainable development of Bangladesh's capital market.

The agreement, signed virtually on Thursday (16 April), aims to improve market efficiency, strengthen governance, and promote international collaboration.

The DBA represents brokerage firms operating under the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), while JSDA functions as a self-regulatory organisation (SRO) and a key representative of Japan's securities industry.

According to its website, JSDA has around 500 member institutions, including securities firms, banks, and other financial entities.

The MoU was signed by Takashi Hibino, chairman and CEO of JSDA, and Saiful Islam, president of DBA, on behalf of their respective organisations.

In a press release, DBA said this is its first formal agreement with an international SRO, marking a significant milestone for the association.

Under the agreement, the two organisations will collaborate across several key areas, including the exchange of laws and regulations related to financial investment and capital markets, development of governance frameworks, policy-making processes, and operational practices of SROs.

The partnership will also focus on strengthening supervision and compliance mechanisms, enhancing financial transaction systems, promoting innovation in investment instruments and services, and expanding investor education programmes. Both sides will extend cooperation in other areas of mutual interest as needed.

Commenting on the development, Saiful Islam said the MoU represents a major step forward for Bangladesh's capital market.

"Partnering with a well-established and experienced self-regulatory organisation like JSDA will play a crucial role in strengthening our market structure, governance, and institutional capacity," he said.

He added that the collaboration would facilitate the exchange of global best practices and help make the country's capital market more modern, transparent, and investor-friendly.

Saiful Islam also expressed optimism that the agreement would contribute to building a more organised, dynamic, and internationally aligned capital market, benefiting all stakeholders.

Despite a broader market downturn amid the Middle East conflict, several fundamentally weak and loss-making stocks – mostly from the non-bank financial institution (NBFI) sector – emerged as the top gainers on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) in March.

According to monthly DSE data, five of the top 10 gainers were NBFIs, led by International Leasing and Financial Services, which surged 100% to close at Tk3.20 per share.

Premier Leasing and Finance rose 83.33% to Tk3.30, while People's Leasing and Financial Services and Fareast Finance each gained 76.47% to Tk3. FAS Finance and Investment also saw a 70.59% increase to Tk3.90.

The remaining gainers included textile firms Hamid Fabrics and Familytex (BD), IFIC Bank First Mutual Fund, engineering firm Atlas Bangladesh, and Pacific Denims, reflecting a mix of low-cap and speculative stocks.

In total, 390 stocks were traded during the month, of which 173 advanced, 183 declined, and 34 remained unchanged, indicating a generally weak market trend.

Sector-wise, manufacturing stocks – including pharmaceuticals, textiles, engineering, cement, and food – accounted for the largest share of turnover at 46.86%, or Tk4,785 crore out of Tk10,211 crore. The financial sector, comprising banks, NBFIs, and insurance, contributed 29.97%, while the services and miscellaneous sector made up 23.09%.

Market insiders say the sharp rise in these stocks follows a prolonged slump, with many NBFIs previously hitting rock-bottom prices amid restructuring and liquidation concerns. Such rallies are often driven by speculative trading rather than strong fundamentals.

A similar trend was observed in February, when several struggling NBFIs posted sharp price increases after steep declines, highlighting continued volatility in the segment.

Two leading entrepreneurs in Bangladesh's cement and steel sectors have initiated a significant wealth transfer to family members, as part of a structured push toward generational succession in their businesses.

Mohammed Jahangir Alam, chairman of Crown Cement and managing director of GPH Ispat, along with Alamgir Kabir, vice-chairman of Crown Cement and chairman of GPH Ispat, have announced plans to gift shares worth a combined Tk166.14 crore to their spouses and children.

According to disclosures filed with the Chittagong Stock Exchange, the transfers aim to facilitate a smooth transition of leadership to the second generation while deepening their involvement in the companies' ownership structures.

The valuation of the gift is based on the closing market prices of the respective companies as of today (15 April).

Jahangir Alam, also a director of Premier Cement, plans to transfer 1.40 crore shares of Crown Cement, 45 lakh shares of Premier Cement, and 3.50 crore shares of GPH Ispat to his wife Masuma Begum, daughter Sadman Syka Sefa, and son Salehin Musfique Sadaf.

Following the transfers, his stake in Crown Cement will fall from 12.47% to 3%, while his holdings in Premier Cement and GPH Ispat will decline to 3.15% and 11.17%, respectively.

At the same time, Alamgir Kabir intends to gift 46 lakh shares of Crown Cement to his wife Kamrun Nahar, son Raihanul Kabir, and daughters Raisa Kabir and Nusaibah Kabir. His personal stake in the cement manufacturer will decrease from 5.67% to 2.57% after the transfer.

All the recipients are currently registered as general shareholders of the companies.

The regulatory disclosures specify that the share transfers will be executed as gifts outside the stock exchange's trading system, subject to regulatory approval, with a target completion date of 30 April 2026.

Market observers say such large-scale intra-family transfers among major industrial groups are increasingly reflecting a shift toward formalised succession planning in Bangladesh's corporate sector. By transferring these assets, the founders are not only securing their legacy but also ensuring that the next generation has a vested interest and a formal role in the companies' capital structures.

While the individual holdings of the senior directors will decline, overall family ownership will remain within the sponsor-director category, ensuring continued control over Crown Cement, Premier Cement, and GPH Ispat.

The Energy Division today (15 April) assured that there is no risk of a fuel crisis in Bangladesh, even as state-owned Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL) continues to operate at reduced capacity due to disruptions in crude oil shipments.

At a press conference at the Secretariat, Energy Division spokesperson Monir Hossain Chowdhury said a proactive strategy to ramp up imports of refined petroleum products has successfully cushioned the domestic supply chain, ensuring uninterrupted fuel availability across the country.

"As I mentioned earlier, the current stock of octane and petrol is sufficient to meet demand for at least the next two months. I can assure that we have adequate reserves," he said.

He acknowledged that the ERL is currently running on a "low feed" due to a shortage of crude oil, but stressed that this would not affect overall supply.

"We have a dual strategy in place. While we work to secure crude supplies, we have simultaneously increased the import of finished petroleum products to meet 100% of the country's demand. The supply chain is stable and uninterrupted."

The disruption follows delays in crude shipments linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly affecting key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz since late February.

An Eastern Refinery official earlier said refinery operations were temporarily halted due to the shortage of crude, following the Iran war.

According to the Energy Division, around 300,000 tonnes of crude imports were delayed in March and April. A vessel carrying 100,000 tonnes of Arabian Light crude from Saudi Arabia remains stranded at Ras Tanura port due to security concerns, while another shipment from the UAE has been postponed.

However, the Energy Division outlined several proactive measures to mitigate the impact.

"A fresh shipment of 100,000 tonnes of Arabian Light crude left for Bangladesh via an alternative route on 20 April and is expected to arrive at Chattogram port between 2 and 3 May," said Monir Hossain Chowdhury.

Additionally, the government has requested a further 100,000 tonnes of crude from Saudi Arabia for May and approved emergency procurement of another 100,000 tonnes through direct purchase to strengthen reserves.

Eastern Refinery, the country's only refinery, typically processes around 1.5 million tonnes of crude annually from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, accounting for roughly 20% of Bangladesh's fuel demand. The remaining 80% is met through imports of refined petroleum products.

According to the energy division data, Eastern Refinery supplied about 15% of the country's diesel and nearly 12% of its petrol demand in the last fiscal year, alongside by-products like furnace oil, kerosene, and bitumen.

After a gap of nearly two months, the Bangladesh Bank has purchased dollars from commercial banks through an auction.

The central bank today (15 April) bought $70 million from commercial banks at a rate of Tk122.75, a senior official confirmed.

Earlier this week, the central bank issued a verbal instruction to banks to purchase dollars from remittance houses at a maximum rate of Tk122.90.

Regarding this, a senior central bank official told The Business Standard, "The remittance rate is Tk122.90, while dollars were purchased from commercial banks via auction at Tk122.75.

"This indicates that the Bangladesh Bank intends to reduce the dollar rate slightly further. Essentially, the central bank signaled to the market that the dollar rate should hover around Tk122.75."

Commenting on the matter, a senior official of a private bank told TBS, "There are sufficient dollars in the market. The central bank purchased dollars at this price to ensure the rate does not rise further, as inflation remains a major challenge for them.

"High inflation has persisted in the country for a long time, and controlling it is the central bank's primary objective. Therefore, the central bank believes that by bringing down the dollar rate, it will be able to reduce inflation. This will also somewhat lower costs for importers."

Another senior official from a private bank said, "The price of the dollar began to rise following the start of the Iran war. The Bangladesh Bank has received information that several banks purchased dollars at higher prices because of this. It is expected that the dollar rate will decrease again in the coming days."