A day after hiking fuel prices, the government has announced a 10-20% increase in diesel, octane and petrol supplies from today to ease the shortages that kept motorists waiting in long queues for hours in Dhaka and elsewhere as of yesterday.

In a notification last night, the Energy Division said the distribution companies under the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) will sell 13,048 tonnes of diesel, 1,422 tonnes of octane and 1,511 tonnes of petrol per day from 20 April. This marks a 10% increase for diesel and petrol, and 20% for octane.

"Considering the present demand for fuel oils, companies under the BPC have been instructed to sell at the increased rates to keep up the supplies at dealers' and consumers' levels," reads the notification.

The government raised the price of octane by Tk20 per litre, petrol by Tk19 and diesel by Tk15, effective from yesterday.

Earlier in parliament yesterday, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku blamed panic buying, stockpiling and black market activity for the shortages at filling stations.

He said there is no shortage of fuel in the country, but that an artificial crisis is being created.

Despite a sharp increase in fuel prices aimed at reducing the subsidy burden, motorists across Bangladesh continued to face long queues at filling stations and shortages yesterday, with no sign of an improvement in supply.

Many motorists had expected the price increase to be followed by higher supplies from depots to petrol stations, easing the shortages that have persisted for weeks. Instead, the situation remained largely unchanged.

Drivers and motorcyclists in Dhaka and elsewhere in the country were still waiting for hours at filling stations to obtain fuel.

At some filling stations, motorcyclists who joined queues at midnight on Saturday were only able to buy fuel yesterday afternoon. Even then, some said they had not been allowed to fill their tanks.

Measures taken by the Energy Division to tackle hoarding and black market sales, including appointing tag officers at filling stations, forming monitoring teams at district and upazila level and conducting mobile court operations, have so far failed to improve the situation.

Energy Adviser to the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) M Shamsul Alam said the ministry had created a narrative that "fuel reserves are overflowing and that there is insufficient storage space".

"Yet people are standing on the streets for hours without getting fuel. The Energy Division, the BPC, the Competition Commission, the Directorate of National Consumer Rights Protection and the law enforcement agencies are all standing like wooden puppets. There are no words to describe this," he told TBS.

Shamsul Alam said the public could have accepted the difficulties if the government had acknowledged that supply is being disrupted by the Middle East conflict, the dollar shortage and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz.

"Instead, the ministry has created the opposite narrative and is not even admitting there is a fuel shortage. That is proof of the government's serious inefficiency and inability to control the supply chain," he said.

Asked whether fuel supplies would be increased after the price rise, Energy and Mineral Resources Division spokesman Monir Hossain Chowdhury said, "We are often supplying more than the allocated amount. But unless panic buying stops, the situation will not return to normal."

Sajjadul Karim Kabul, president of one faction of the Petrol Pump Owners' Association, said depot supplies had not increased despite the higher prices.

"What is the point of raising fuel prices? The crisis will not end unless supplies increase. If they supplied fuel at full capacity for one week, everything would calm down," he said.

Kabul said officials appear worried that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed again and are therefore reluctant to release more fuel.

"We do not even know whether the government has the fuel. They keep telling the press that reserves are at their highest level in 50 years. If there are reserves, then release the fuel," he said.

Kabul said his 13,500-litre tanker had received only 9,000 litres from the depot and that the same situation had continued for the past three days.

The government's position also drew criticism in parliament.

Rumin Farhana, member of parliament for Brahmanbaria-2, accused the government of misleading the public.

Speaking on a point of order yesterday, she said: "The government keeps saying there is no fuel shortage, but the reality is completely different. There are queues stretching for three kilometres. Drivers are waiting until midnight and still not getting fuel. If there is no crisis, why are there such long queues? Why has the government increased fuel prices?"

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, told this newspaper that the price increase had been necessary because the government could no longer bear the cost of rising international fuel prices caused by supply disruptions.

"Consumers now want access to fuel without difficulty. The government must ensure adequate supply in order to normalise the situation," she said.

Countrywide paralysis

The shortage is not confined to the capital, according to TBS correspondents. Reports from Savar suggest that 75% of filling stations lacked octane and petrol by Sunday morning. Local officials claimed that while 68% of pumps had diesel, the concentrated demand on a few functional stations created a sense of panic.

The crisis has also hit the transport sector in Bogura, where goods-carrying trucks are unable to secure sufficient diesel, and in Barisal and Brahmanbaria, where pump owners report receiving no clear timeline from depots regarding when normal supply will resume.

At some stations, such as the SI Chowdhury Filling Station in Savar, managers reported receiving only one-third of their usual weekly octane allocation.

Amid ongoing domestic and global challenges, businesses have urged the government to ensure that the upcoming national budget for the 2026-27 fiscal year is supportive and growth-oriented rather than “punitive”.

They also called for a reduction in effective tax rates, including turnover tax, and stressed the need for a balanced and pragmatic tax policy to encourage investment and economic expansion.

The demands were made at a pre-budget seminar on private-sector priorities in Dhaka, jointly organised by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka (MCCI), and the Economic Reporters’ Forum (ERF).

“In the current global and domestic economic context, we are going through a challenging time,” said Kamran T Rahman, president of MCCI.

High inflation, sluggish investment, elevated interest rates, and pressure on foreign exchange have made doing business difficult, he said, adding that small and medium enterprises are the worst affected.

He said the budget should focus on boosting investment and job creation, urging a further 2.5 percentage point cut in corporate tax for both listed and non-listed companies and the removal of the cash transaction condition.

Rahman also proposed introducing a “Unified Taxpayer Profile” to replace separate tax, VAT, and customs systems, which he said would reduce complexity and harassment.

Golam Mainuddin, chairperson of Apex Footwear Limited, said the tax burden remains disproportionately high on compliant taxpayers.

Habibullah N Karim, senior vice-president of MCCI, said, “This is an opportunity to rethink our taxation paradigm; high rates often discourage compliance.”

“Bangladesh once had such high-income tax rates that no one paid at the top bracket. When rates were reduced, collection increased and it could rise further if rates are lowered again,” he added.

Citing VAT, he noted, “If rates come down from 15 percent, more businesses will comply, and overall collection could increase.”

“There is a huge scope to expand the tax net, but a rent-seeking culture within the tax administration remains a major barrier.”

“Without making the system service-oriented and addressing this culture, even automation will not deliver effective results,” he said.

Malik Mohammed Sayeed, chief executive officer of Square Toiletries Limited, called for retaining tax exemptions on sanitary napkins and diapers.

He also urged a reduction in taxes on imported raw materials to around 10 percent, as key inputs are not locally produced and require large-scale investment.

Asif Ibrahim, former president of the Chittagong Stock Exchange, said, “Investment has stagnated. Without protecting domestic investors, foreign investment will not come.”

He noted that declining private-sector credit growth is a concern, and financial sector reforms are needed.

“We expect the budget to support both domestic and foreign investment through a collaborative approach to drive growth and jobs,” he said.

Former NBR chairman Muhammad Abdul Mazid stressed policy predictability, saying businesses need clarity on tax rates in advance.

ERF President Doulot Akter Mala warned of a potential revenue shortfall of nearly Tk 100,000 crore this fiscal year, cautioning against overly ambitious targets in the next budget.

Business leaders have called for the urgent appointment of a private-sector administrator and swift elections at the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), warning that prolonged administrative uncertainty is weakening the country’s apex trade body and undermining the interests of the private sector.

They made the call at a meeting with Commerce Minister Khandker Abdul Muqtadir at the commerce ministry today.

The FBCCI has been run by an administrator for the past two years following the political changeover on August 5, 2024.

At today’s event, Mohammad Hatem, president of the BKMEA, stressed the need to appoint an experienced businessperson as administrator of the FBCCI, instead of a government official, so that the concerns of the business community can be addressed more effectively.

He emphasised greater engagement with businesses in policymaking, particularly in the trade and industrial sectors, and highlighted the need to ensure the federation remains active, inclusive, and responsive to all business groups.

Hatem also underscored the urgency of restoring effective leadership through timely elections, warning that prolonged uncertainty is undermining business confidence.

He said the apex trade body must function as a strong and credible representative of the private sector, especially at a time when businesses face multiple domestic and global challenges. Without an elected committee, he noted, the organisation cannot effectively carry out its role in policy advocacy and coordination.

He called for prompt steps to hold elections and restore normal operations, adding that representative leadership would better protect business interests and support economic growth.

Md Zakir Hossain, general secretary of the Bangladesh Supermarket Owners’ Association, also called for the immediate appointment of a new administrator for the FBCCI from within the business community, saying the association has become ineffective under the current setup.

He said the organisation has effectively been left “without guardianship” following consecutive government-appointed administrators. While a previous administrator, Hafizur Rahman, initiated reforms and announced an election schedule, the process was later stalled due to legal challenges from business leaders.

Hossain acknowledged shared responsibility within the business community but warned that prolonged uncertainty is hurting small and medium enterprises the most. “Large businesses can directly approach ministries, but SMEs depend on FBCCI,” he said.

He criticised current administrator Abdur Rahim for limited engagement, calling for a full-time, business-backed administrator. He added that elections should be held quickly, with any rule-related issues addressed either before or after polls by an elected committee.

Abdul Haque, president of the Bangladesh Reconditioned Vehicles Importers and Dealers Association (BARVIDA), also called for the immediate holding of elections at the FBCCI, saying prolonged delays are harming the private sector.

He said the federation has been without an elected committee for nearly two years, calling the situation detrimental to the business environment. “In an economy where around 80 percent is driven by the private sector, the absence of elected leadership in its apex body is unacceptable,” he said.

Haque warned that several policies have been adopted without adequate private-sector input and could have negative impacts. He particularly flagged the long-pending import policy, urging a thorough review.

While acknowledging shared responsibility, he urged the government to appoint a private-sector administrator and hold elections swiftly. Citing the 2006–07 caretaker period as precedent, he said timely action is both possible and necessary.

In response, Commerce Minister Khandker Abdul Muqtadir called for transforming the FBCCI into a truly representative, effective, and non-political body for the business community.

He said the association must play a more proactive role in protecting business interests and conveying concerns to the government, while applying constructive pressure when needed without being politicised.

“We want an FBCCI that genuinely serves as a unified platform for all businesses,” he said, adding that it should provide practical, ground-level input in policymaking.

Muqtadir stressed that competent and dynamic leadership from within the business community is essential to revitalise the organisation. He also reassured leaders of the government’s commitment to a business-friendly environment, noting that a new import policy is in its final stage and that committees will be formed to simplify services across key ministries.

At the meeting, FBCCI Administrator and Additional Secretary (export) Md Abdur Rahim Khan also spoke.

Among the business leaders present were former FBCCI president Mir Nasir Hossain, former BKMEA president SM Fazlul Haque, former FBCCI director Nasreen Fatema Awal, Bangladesh CNG Machineries Importers Association president Zakir Hossain Nayan, former FBCCI director Gias Uddin Chowdhury Khokon, former Rangamati Chamber president Belayet Hossain Bhuiyan, former FBCCI vice-president Nizam Uddin Rajesh, and former director Syed Bakhtiar.

Economist Debapriya Bhattacharya yesterday urged the government to explain the intention behind recent revisions to the Bank Resolution Act, which now allow former owners to regain control of five Islamic banks being merged amid a severe liquidity crisis due to past irregularities.

At a session of the annual economists’ conference at BRAC Centre Inn in Dhaka, he said political authorities must set out their position in parliament and issue a clear statement explaining their intent.

Earlier this month, the House passed the revised Bank Resolution Act 2026, paving the way for former owners of the merging banks to reclaim control under relatively easy terms. The move has been widely viewed as a reversal of the interim government’s banking reform drive.

Under the law, former directors or owners can reclaim control by paying 7.5 percent of the funds injected by the government or the Bangladesh Bank upfront. The remaining 92.5 percent is to be paid within two years at 10 percent simple interest.

“I have no problem with the policy itself, but I want clarity,” Debapriya said at the conference organised by the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem).

He said, “Even the central bank governor has not given a statement on this. So, instead of relying on our own interpretations, the authorities must speak.”

Debapriya, convenor of the Citizen’s Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh, said, “I am worried. I have already said over the past couple of days that we need a political statement on this issue. We need a discussion in parliament.”

“What we are doing now, what you, I, and others are saying, is based on our goodwill, but it is still just interpretation,” he said.

“I believe in political interpretation backed by commitment. That commitment should ensure that past problems or actors do not return. And this issue is not limited to today; it will affect the media tomorrow, and then oil and LNG imports the day after. It extends beyond banking; it affects the entire economy,” he further said.

“We have seen such patterns before. That is why I am looking for a clear political explanation, and wondering why the political leadership is silent,” added Debapriya, also a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

He said the situation highlights a broader failure to pursue meaningful reform. If reforms are delayed further and pushed into a Five-Year Plan, the approach would be misplaced.

“Unfortunately, although I am also a member of that planning committee, I must say that now is the time for consolidation and reform in order to move forward,” he said.

Without reforms, including stronger revenue generation, better public spending and balanced deficit financing, he asked where the economy would go.

He also referred to findings in a white paper on the economy published by the interim government, which highlighted how deals were struck between politicians and businesspeople, especially around the Prime Minister’s Office.

Businesspeople observed such arrangements and thought, “Why shouldn’t I have a share in this?” he said, adding that some then tried to cut transaction costs by becoming directly involved, including awarding contracts to family members. Eventually, some even entered parliament themselves.

On the capital market, he suggested including not only multinational companies but also state-owned enterprises.

This, the economist said, could achieve two goals at once: raising funds in the short term, even if it feels like selling family silver, and strengthening the quality of listed shares to make the market more vibrant.

Researchers, businesspeople, economists, trade analysts and students from home and abroad took part in the discussion, which was moderated by Selim Raihan, executive director of Sanem.

‘BANK DEFAULT NOW EMBEDDED IN FINANCIAL SYSTEM’

At the session, Professor Rehman Sobhan, chairman of CPD, said banking reforms have been discussed since the time of President Ziaur Rahman, yet major defaults began then and have continued through successive governments.

Although it was once suggested that defaulters should not contest elections, laws were later introduced allowing them to do so if they made a 5 percent down payment and rescheduled loans.

This has resulted in a large group of defaulters in parliament who, he said, help block meaningful reform.

The CPD chairman added that bank default has now become embedded in the structure of the financial system and cannot be addressed simply by targeting a few crony capitalists.

He said legislation alone is not enough. Reforms must be translated into operational measures implemented by the bureaucracy, with outcomes monitored on the ground.

Prof Rehman Sobhan added that an active opposition should work with civil society to act as a watchdog over reform implementation. Ultimately, he said, the government must show genuine intent and build accountability from the Prime Minister’s Office down to the field level.

He said the ultimate test of accountability lies in the government’s willingness to subject its performance to a free, fair and inclusive election.

Mohammad Muslim Chowdhury, former Comptroller and Auditor General of Bangladesh, said that although banks such as Sonali, Janata, Agrani and Rupali were converted into public limited companies two decades ago, they continue to function largely as extensions of the government.

He suggested that these banks should be brought under a genuine corporate structure, merged if necessary, and eventually listed on the stock exchange after a thorough review of their asset quality and balance sheets.

He also called for bringing the Financial Institutions Division (FID) under the regulatory oversight of the Bangladesh Bank to prevent misuse of authority and strengthen supervision.

He further said the total number of banks should be reduced, with particular attention to those with weak balance sheets and negative net worth, through liquidation or other corrective measures.

The latest fuel price increase is expected to send shockwaves through much of the economy, lifting costs for farmers, transporters and manufacturers while offering only slight relief to the government finances and the exchange rate, according to an analysis by Brac EPL Stock Brokerage Ltd.

The brokerage estimates that seven out of nine key economic indicators it reviewed will face negative pressure. Only two areas, fiscal space and the dollar-taka exchange rate, are likely to benefit.

The government on Saturday night raised the prices of four fuels with effect from midnight. Diesel now sells at Tk 115 per litre, octane at Tk 140, petrol at Tk 135 and kerosene at Tk 130.

Bangladesh introduced an automatic, market-driven fuel pricing mechanism on March 7, 2024. Under the guidelines, prices are adjusted in the first week of each month based on the Mean of Platts Arab Gulf benchmark published by S&P Global.

For months, however, prices moved within a narrow Tk 1 to Tk 2 range in line with global markets. This time, the adjustment crosses over 15 percent, reflecting global price volatility amid conflicts in the Middle East.

Brac EPL estimates that a 15 percent increase across hydrocarbons could cut the subsidy bill by about Tk 700 crore a month at current price levels. That would ease pressure on public finances at a time when weak revenue collection and high operating costs have left the government with limited room to manoeuvre.

Lower subsidy requirements could also trim government borrowing, offering some support to the external balance and the exchange rate. But the impact is not straightforward, rather layered and uneven.

The immediate burden of the fuel shock will fall on irrigation, transport and power generation. North Bengal is in the middle of the Boro season, the largest paddy cycle of the year.

Irrigation there depends heavily on diesel and electricity. Higher diesel prices will raise cultivation costs unless offset by policy support or price adjustments.

Transport and logistics are equally exposed. Freight operators usually pass on higher fuel costs quickly, especially in goods transport. That, in turn, feeds into the prices of agricultural produce, consumer goods and manufactured items.

Although diesel-based generation accounts for less than 2 percent of total power output, its share can rise during peak demand, especially as liquified natural gas (LNG) shortages drag on. Higher generation costs may be passed on to consumers or absorbed through fresh subsidies, according to the report.

It said there could be second-round effects too. Dearer transport, irrigation and energy will add to inflationary pressures already stoked by high imported food prices.

The brokerage said that rising inflation expectations could push up yields on government securities and lift borrowing costs for companies if not carefully managed.

Higher inflation and interest rates, according to the report, would weaken demand, lower output, and leave factories running below capacity, which may ultimately translate into slower GDP growth.

While the country usually depends on long-term supply contracts, diesel, which accounts for nearly 65 percent of hydrocarbon consumption, is increasingly sourced from the volatile spot market.

Because geopolitical tensions have disrupted trade routes, with some suppliers declaring force majeure amid infrastructure damage and shipping blockade through the Strait of Hormuz.

The country’s sole crude oil refinery, Eastern Refinery Limited, has an annual capacity of 1.5 million tonnes and meets about 20 percent of domestic demand across 16 fuel products.

The refinery is currently running well below capacity because of crude shortages and is unlikely to scale up production before May this year.

Besides, existing trade agreements with the US limit Bangladesh’s ability to diversify its fuel sourcing, creating added pressure on procurement.

Brac EPL said reliance on spot purchases, low refinery utilisation and limited sourcing options could prompt further price increases, though at a slower pace.

Bangladesh is seeking an additional $2 billion in external support to cushion exposure to volatile fuel markets, ease foreign exchange pressure, and gradually reduce subsidies.

In the meantime, the country has secured a 60-day waiver from the United States to import fuel from Russia and has sourced 100,000 tonnes from Kazakhstan at around $75 a barrel.

Economist Rehman Sobhan today (19 April) said Bangladesh's loan defaulters have become embedded in the political system and are now creating barriers to financial and institutional reforms.

"Loan defaulters have become part of the political structure. They themselves are obstructing reforms. So the problem is no longer person-specific, it is structural," he said on the final day of the three-day 9th South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem) Annual Economists' Conference in Dhaka.

"Reform is not merely about passing laws, but a continuous process requiring implementation, enforcement and measurable outcomes," he added at the session titled "Romancing the Reform: The Bangladesh Story", held in Dhaka today.

Sobhan said many reform efforts fail because governments do not follow through after legislation. "The first step of reform is enacting laws, followed by building the necessary administrative framework, ensuring proper enforcement and finally evaluating results."

The session was moderated by Sanem Executive Director Selim Raihan. The keynote paper was presented by CPD Distinguished Fellow Debapriya Bhattacharya, while former Finance Secretary and former Comptroller and Auditor General Mohammad Muslim Chowdhury served as designated discussant.

Debapriya said Bangladesh has pursued multiple reforms since independence but progress has been slowed by what he termed a "kleptocratic legacy" of corruption, misuse of public resources, weakened institutions and collusion among political, bureaucratic and business elites.

He said reforms often fail due to weak political ownership, poor implementation capacity, vested interests, lack of consultation, corruption, financing constraints and weak accountability.

Referring to the interim government, he said despite strong rhetoric, it failed to establish a coherent reform framework, lacked an integrated economic vision and did not create a real-time system for citizens to monitor progress.

Banking sector at center of crisis

Debapriya said the banking sector has become one of the clearest examples of how reform plans are derailed during implementation. He said rising non-performing loans (NPLs) are weighing heavily on the economy, while repeated attempts to restructure weak banks have been blocked by political resistance.

"The government has finally disclosed the names of major defaulters. But the real question is what to do with banks that have effectively collapsed," he said.

He also criticised amendments to the Bank Resolution Act, saying the changes created an opportunity for former owners of failed banks to regain influence by injecting a relatively small amount of money.

"This is seen as the comeback of oligarchs in a new form, with political patronage," he said, warning that such policy reversals send the wrong signal when depositors and investors need confidence.

He also criticised overlapping administrative control in the sector, saying governance reforms have been delayed for too long. "Good intentions are not enough. If banking reforms are delayed again, the cost to the economy will be much higher," he warned.

However, he welcomed promises of greater central bank autonomy, stronger supervision, action against defaulters and depositor protection, but questioned whether those commitments would be implemented.

Reform needs political commitment

Rehman Sobhan said political parties make major reform promises during elections, but it remains unclear whether they have the leadership or commitment to deliver them.

He said past reforms succeeded only when they had strong public support, citing the Six-Point Movement as an example of a widely backed reform agenda.

He added that such mobilisation is now weak, with parties failing to effectively communicate manifestos to voters. "In many cases, even party members do not properly know their own manifesto," he said.

Questioning the policy debate culture, Sobhan asked how many commentators have direct government experience, arguing that reform cannot be fully understood without working inside the state. "Without that experience, it is hard to know who supports reform, who resists it, and why it fails," he said.

Recalling his time at the Planning Commission, he said passing reform laws was not the main challenge.

Using police reform as an example, he said success should be measured by outcomes in practice. If accountability mechanisms are introduced, their effectiveness must be tested over time by citizens and journalists, he said. "That would be the real test of reform," he added.

Sobhan said many reform proposals promoted by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are not new, but have been discussed for decades under successive governments.

According to him, governments often show limited progress to unlock loan disbursements, while development partners also have an interest in showing money has been spent.

"What actually happens in the long run is rarely examined," he said.

Need for performance budgeting

Sobhan said he has repeatedly proposed performance-based budgeting to show citizens what outcomes are achieved through public spending. "At present, we only see expenditure figures, with little analysis of results," he said.

Referring to health and education, he said allocations are often underutilised even as complaints persist over inadequate budgets. "If allocated money is not spent properly, where is the real problem?" he asked.

Citing India, Sobhan said major reforms such as the right to food, education and work were driven by strong citizen movements. In Bangladesh, he said civil society remains fragmented and unable to build unified pressure for large-scale reform.

He described the democratic process as the ultimate test of reform, calling for free, fair and inclusive elections. "A government becomes truly accountable when it accepts the people's verdict."

Despite repeated notices and a High Court directive, People's Leasing and Financial Services has failed to recover any dues from four former directors who collectively owe Tk1,785 crore.

The non-bank financial institution is now moving towards legal action to recover the long-overdue loans.

"We sent multiple letters to the permanent addresses of the four directors requesting repayment but have not received any response," managing director Md Sagir Hossain Khan told The Business Standard. The court gave them six months to repay, but the January deadline passed without compliance.

"Action is being taken under prevailing laws. Legal notices have already been served, but no response has been received. It has been decided to file cases, which are also in process," he added. "The company has also filed a fresh petition seeking further directions from the court."

The four directors

Recovery efforts have been complicated by the status of the accused directors. Former chairman Motiur Rahman and former director Khabir Uddin have died. Another director, Bishawjit Kumar Roy, remains absconding and his whereabouts remain unknown. Arafin Samsul Alamin remains active in business as a director of Shamsul Alamin Real Estate and managing director of SA Spinning Mills.

A special forensic audit, ordered by the court in 2021, revealed that the four sponsor-directors alone accounted for Tk1,413 crore of the Tk2,800 crore outstanding to major defaulters as of 2022.

The audit, conducted by MABS & J Partners covering 2009-2022, was submitted in January last year. Based on its findings, the High Court's company bench in January 2022 directed the defaulters to clear their dues within six months. The order was later published on the company's website in September.

According to the audit, outstanding loans as of 2022 were Tk565.47 crore for Motiur, Tk404.38 crore for Khabir, Tk415.66 crore for Arafin, and Tk28.47 crore for Bishawjit. By March 2026, the total outstanding to these four had risen to Tk1,785 crore.

The report detailed the nature of borrowing: Arafin and Bishawjit took direct loans, Motiur availed both loans and margin loans for share trading, while Khabir Uddin borrowed solely for share trading.

Motiur was chairman of MK Group, a major importer of fertilisers and commodities, while Khabir was engaged in jewellery and real estate development, according to the company's 2014 annual report.

Attempts to reach Arafin were unsuccessful. A woman who answered his phone denied that the number belonged to him and disconnected the call after the reporter identified himself.

Managing Director Sagir said the audit exposed deep-rooted governance failures. "The company's directors colluded among themselves to take loans and diverted funds from People's Leasing," he said.

"Some loans had collateral, while others had none. Even where collateral exists, it is negligible compared to the loan amount. We also found that for 65% of the loans, the required collateral was not provided, which has severely damaged the institution," he added.

Struggles of People's Leasing

People's Leasing has been struggling for years under the weight of non-performing loans, negative interest margins, operating losses, and mounting obligations to depositors. Since 2015, it has not paid dividends due to continuous losses.

Following a petition by Bangladesh Bank under the Financial Institutions Act, the High Court in July 2019 placed the company under liquidation. That order was later recalled in July 2021, when the court formed a new board, which has since been restructured to manage the institution.

The company's 2024 annual report, citing the forensic audit, pointed to widespread financial irregularities, systemic governance failures, and gross mismanagement. These included irregular loan approvals and disbursements, inaccurate interest calculations, unapproved waivers, dubious loan adjustments, regulatory non-compliance, and unreliable financial statements.

It also highlighted the involvement of former directors, board-level oversight failures, and negligence by officials, noting that repeated warning signals from external auditors since 2014 had been ignored.

In response to a query from the Dhaka Stock Exchange, People's Leasing said the current board and management have been working to stabilise the institution.

Since July 2021, around Tk200 crore has been recovered from default borrowers, while Tk85-90 crore has been repaid to depositors in phases. The third phase of repayment has also begun.

The company said its financial distress stemmed largely from irregularities, weak governance, and non-performing loans disbursed before 2019, with the forensic audit identifying significant liabilities linked to former directors.

As part of revival efforts, the company has sought around Tk750 crore in government support following court directives involving Bangladesh Bank and the Ministry of Finance. It has also resumed limited lending on a fully secured basis, disbursing approximately Tk25 crore in new loans so far.

Bangladesh’s mobile operators have warned of an imminent nationwide telecom disruption as a deepening electricity and fuel crisis pushes networks to the brink, raising serious concerns over the vulnerability of data centres and the wider digital economy.

In an urgent letter to the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission, they said the situation has “reached a point where continued telecom operations can no longer be sustained without immediate government intervention.”

The warning, issued by the Association of Mobile Telecom Operators of Bangladesh (AMTOB), comes as prolonged outages -- often lasting 5-8 hours daily during storms -- force operators to run critical infrastructure on diesel generators.

According to the letter, seen by The Daily Star, base transceiver stations (BTS) alone are now consuming over 52,000 litres of diesel and nearly 20,000 litres of octane daily across operators.

A shutdown would “critically disrupt emergency services, disaster response, law enforcement coordination, financial transactions, digital governance, and economic activity.”
Providing a breakdown, it stated that the country’s largest telecom operator Grameenphone consumes 28,079 litres of diesel and 9,254 litres of octane, Robi Axiata uses 13,140 litres of diesel and 5,610 litres of octane, and Banglalink requires 11,206 litres of diesel and 4,995 litres of octane daily to keep towers operational.

The most acute vulnerability, however, lies in data centres and switching facilities – the core of the country’s digital infrastructure.

“Core telecom infrastructure including data centres, switching facilities, and transmission hubs are frequently operating without grid power, posing serious risk to network stability,” the AMTOB said.

Each data centre consumes an estimated 500-600 litres of diesel per hour, translating to around 4,000 litres per day per facility, according to the letter.

Combined daily consumption for data centres and switching hubs has already surged to 27,196 litres, with Grameenphone, Robi and Banglalink accounting for 11,184, 9,732 and 8,200 litres respectively.

Industry insiders say this level of dependence on backup power is unsustainable.

Unlike BTS towers, data centres host critical systems such as call routing and internet traffic management. Any disruption at this level can trigger cascading failures across networks.

“If fuel can’t be managed and data centres go offline, it would cause widespread call drops, internet outages, and service blackouts,” said an official of an operator on condition of anonymity.

Tanveer Mohammad, chief corporate affairs officer of Grameenphone, echoed the concern.

Noting that operators are experiencing challenges in electricity and fuel availability, he said, “The evolving situation calls for timely and targeted measures to sustain uninterrupted telecom services nationwide.”

He said in order to “proactively avoid disruptions to essential services for millions”, they need further support from the government for priority electricity access to critical infrastructure, streamlined fuel supply, and facilitation of fuel transportation for emergency operations.

The consequences could extend far beyond communication breakdowns. The AMTOB cautioned that a shutdown would “critically disrupt emergency services, disaster response, law enforcement coordination, financial transactions, digital governance, and economic activity.”

Bangladesh’s fast-growing digital economy -- heavily reliant on mobile connectivity -- would be particularly exposed. Mobile financial services, e-commerce platforms, ride-sharing apps, and cloud-based enterprise systems depend on uninterrupted network availability. A prolonged outage could halt transactions, delay salary disbursements, and paralyse logistics chains.

The crisis is being compounded by fuel supply constraints. Local stations cannot provide volumes at this scale, the letter noted, and law enforcement barriers during inter-district transport have further disrupted supply lines.

“Multiple strategically vital telecom facilities are currently running on dangerously low fuel reserves,” it warned.

The operators’ association called for immediate government intervention, including uninterrupted electricity supply to key telecom facilities, priority power status for mobile towers, and direct fuel allocation from depots.

They also urged authorities to ensure smooth fuel transportation.

“Issue immediate written directives to LEAs (law enforcement agency) to ensure uninterrupted fuel transportation for emergency telecom operations,” they said in the letter.

“The telecom network is the backbone of national communications, public safety, governance, and emergency response. Any prolonged disruption will have severe and potentially irreversible consequences for the country,” they added.

They proposed that authorities hold an urgent high-level coordination meeting involving the power and energy divisions, fuel authorities, regulators, and operators.

There are 46,567 telecom towers in Bangladesh, operated by tower infrastructure companies and mobile operators, providing network coverage to over 18.58 crore customers. Operators have around 27 data centres across the country.

An acute shortage of ammonia has closed down production at the state-owned DAP Fertilizer Company Limited (DAPFCL), marking a fresh setback for the country’s fertiliser supply chain, officials said.

The closure of five of the country’s six urea factories is behind the crisis, they claimed.

The ammonia needed for production at the factory is primarily sourced from Chittagong Urea Fertilizer Company Limited (CUFL) and Karnaphuli Fertilizer Company Limited (Kafco).

These two fertiliser factories were among the five shut down in early March, as a precaution amid fears of gas supply disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. They are yet to resume operations, and ammonia supply to the DAP facility remains cut off.

The DAP plant exhausted its stock of the indispensable raw material on Saturday. Fertiliser output had stopped around 7:00 pm, Deputy General Manager (Commercial) Robiul Alam Khan confirmed.

“If gas supply to those plants resumes, they can restart production, and we will receive raw materials again. There is no alternative source at the moment,” he told The Daily Star.

DAP production requires phosphoric acid and ammonia.

“We have sufficient phosphoric acid in stock, but without ammonia, production cannot continue,” Robiul Alam Khan added.

Typically, the plant produces around 500 tonnes of fertiliser daily using imported phosphoric acid and ammonia supplied by Kafco and CUFL.

The most recent batch of 3,000 tonnes of ammonia from Kafco had sustained production till Saturday, Khan said.

DAPFCL had managed to continue operations for nearly one and a half months using existing stock, but was forced to shut down after the reserves ran out.

Located in Rangadia of Anwara upazila in Chattogram, DAPFCL operates under the Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) of the Ministry of Industries.

Established to meet domestic demand for nitrogen and phosphorus-based fertilisers, the plant has been in commercial operation since 2006 and remains the country’s only DAP-producing plant. It has two units with a combined production capacity of 800 tonnes per day.

The plant produced around 92,600 tonnes of DAP in fiscal year 2023-24 and about 49,500 tonnes in fiscal year 2024-25, reflecting a sharp decline amid supply disruptions.

According to BCIC and the Ministry of Agriculture, the country’s total annual fertiliser demand is estimated at 6.5-6.9 million tonnes, including 2.7 million tonnes of urea, 752,000 tonnes of TSP, 1.507 million tonnes of DAP, 2.6 million tonnes of NPKS and 987,000 tonnes of MOP.

Around 1.4 million tonnes of DAP are imported. A significant portion comes from Morocco, Tunisia, China, and Saudi Arabia.

BCIC officials said geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have created uncertainty over timely imports.

Authorities initially shut five urea fertiliser factories for 15 days from March 4 as a precaution amid concerns over gas supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure.

However, the shutdown has stretched well beyond the initial timeline, with plants still idle after more than six weeks.

Even Kafco, initially operating at limited capacity, was forced to suspend production late last month due to worsening gas shortages.

BCIC officials said around 197 million cubic feet of gas per day are required to run the five major urea plants at full capacity, underscoring the severity of the supply crunch.

“We have been unable to produce around 7,100 tonnes of fertiliser daily from these plants for the past one and a half months,” BCIC Director (Production and Research) Md Moniruzzaman said.

He added that gas supply to Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited and CUFL is expected to resume from May 1.

“Once ammonia production restarts, we expect the DAP plant to receive feedstock and resume operations,” he said.

Global finance leaders, whipsawed by Middle East war ​news, came to grips this past week with their inability to mitigate the economic damage from increasingly frequent geopolitical shocks, and a realization that counting on U.S. leadership to resolve crises is no longer ‌the guarantee it had long been.Finance committee reports

At International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, participants swung from gloom over a worsening global economic outlook due to deepening energy price and supply shocks to tentative optimism as it appeared Iran may reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow flows of oil, gas, fertilizer and other commodities to resume.

By Saturday that optimism was already fading amid new attacks on shipping.

The IMF and the World Bank pledged up to a combined $150 billion in new financing assistance for developing countries hit hardest by the massive energy price shock, and celebrated ​their re-engagement with Venezuela’s acting government after a seven-year pause.

They warned countries not to hoard oil and not to go overboard with expensive and untargeted fuel price subsidies. But in the end, there was not much they ​could do but watch statements from Tehran and the White House.

“Actually some of the most important decisions on the global economy are not happening here,” Josh Lipsky, international economics chair ⁠at the Atlantic Council, said of the IMF and World Bank campus.

“The single most important development in the global economy happened between the U.S. and Iran,” he said. “We hope it’s good news, and we’ll wait and see.”Economy news updates

Despite buoyant stock markets ​and a sharp drop in oil futures prices on Friday, Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan summed up the mood of many officials when he said he would not be comfortable predicting an improved outlook until tankers start moving freely through the ​strait again with reasonably priced insurance and physical energy prices dropping.

“If the clear waters are open,” Al-Jadaan told a news conference, “I think that’s what would trigger, for me, a change in the scenario.”

As soon as the IMF released a mild cut in its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1% under the most optimistic of three scenarios it devised for the task, it said that was already outdated and that the global economy was drifting towards a more adverse growth scenario of just 2.5%. The fund’s latest World Economic Outlook said a prolonged war could push the ​global economy into recession.

SHOCK AFTER SHOCK

Before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February, the global economy had just been recovering from last year’s shock from President Donald Trump’s wave of steep tariffs on global trading ​partners.

Discussions of trade tensions were more muted at this year’s meetings, as was Russia’s war on Ukraine, though G7 finance ministers pledged to keep up pressure on Russia.

But a constant drumbeat of shocks that started with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ‌in 2022 was ⁠teaching countries the U.S. is no longer “the general” of the international order and would not necessarily provide solutions, Lipsky said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday launched an initiative calling for G20 countries, the IMF and World Bank to take coordinated action to ensure adequate access to fertilizers amid supply disruptions from Gulf countries. But seven weeks after the war’s start, that will do little to ease shortages and high prices for farmers now planting spring crops across the Northern Hemisphere.

Kevin Chika Urama, chief economist at the African Development Bank, said the Middle East crisis provided a fresh imperative for African countries to deepen regional trade and economic ties, work on alternative energy sources, expand their domestic tax bases, and tap into enormous natural gas reserves.

“Geopolitical tensions are ​the new normal and uncertainty in policymaking has become certain,” ​he told a panel with other chief economists from ⁠the multilateral institutions.

NOT OUR WAR

Finance ministers, central bankers and other officials attending the meetings expressed frustration at being thrust into another economic calamity by Trump’s actions.Finance committee reports

Behind closed doors, officials, particularly from Europe, sent a clear message to the U.S. that Washington needed to take action to reopen the strait, a senior finance official who attended the meetings said. In public, the comments ​were more diplomatic with less finger-pointing.

“The knot of this conflict is the Strait of Hormuz. We need this to open, but not at any price,” French Finance Minister Roland ​Lescure told reporters. “I don’t want to ⁠pay a dollar to go through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Successive shocks, including this war, have scrambled planning for developing economies “and you hardly have time to breathe,” Retselisitsoe Adelaide Matlanyane, Lesotho’s Minister of Finance and Development Planning, said during a panel of African ministers.

“For small, open, and vulnerable economies like Lesotho, these shocks have presented extraordinary pressures on the fiscals, on prices and on everything.”

Matlanyane said managing debt has now become very complex and the tensions have “brought on a sense that we have to rethink policy and we have to think differently.”

“It’s ⁠frustrating dealing with ​this,” she told Reuters.

For Thailand, a net energy importer that will host IMF and World Bank annual meetings in October, the lingering effects of ​destroyed Gulf oil and gas infrastructure will keep prices elevated for a long time, said Ekniti Nitithanprapas, deputy prime minister of Thailand.

But he said the crisis was an opportunity for Thailand to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and boost the role of renewable energy, including solar farms - the opposite of ​Trump’s energy agenda.

“We need to commit to transform...to help people transform to face the new fragmented world and high oil prices,” Nitithanprapas said.

Bangladesh has surpassed all previous records for wheat imports with nearly three months of the financial year still remaining, driven by growing demand from bakeries, processed food manufacturers, and fish feed producers, combined with lower global prices.

Officials at the food ministry say another 10-15 lakh tonnes of wheat could be imported in the remaining period of the 2025-26 fiscal year.

According to ministry data, 5.83 lakh tonnes of wheat were imported by the government and 61.6 lakh tonnes by the private sector during the first nine months of the fiscal year, totalling the figure to 67.43 lakh tonnes. In FY25, total wheat imports stood at 62.35 lakh tonnes.

Speaking to The Business Standard, industry insiders say wheat demand has risen sharply because of changing food habits and greater use of wheat in bakery products, processed foods and fish feed. Lower prices in the international market have also encouraged companies to buy more than their immediate requirements.

Md Moniruzzaman, director of procurement at the Directorate General of Food, said changing food habits had increased wheat demand in recent years. "This year, wheat imports have reached the highest level in the country's history."

Bangladesh's annual wheat requirement is estimated at 70-80 lakh tonnes. In addition to imports, the country produces around 10-12 lakh tonnes of wheat domestically each year. The Department of Agricultural Extension forecasts local wheat production at 11.14 lakh tonnes in the current fiscal year, up from 10.41 lakh tonnes a year earlier.

The pace of imports has accelerated significantly in recent months. Bangladesh imported 35.35 lakh tonnes of wheat in the first six months of the fiscal year, while another 32.08 lakh tonnes arrived between January and 8 April alone.

Sector insiders say wheat prices surged to record levels in 2022 following the Russia-Ukraine war, but fell to nearly half by the middle of last year and have since remained relatively stable. The lower prices have prompted private companies to increase purchases.

Private sector representatives say demand for bakery products has grown steadily as consumer preferences shift. A decade ago, only a handful of industrial groups marketed processed food products, but now the number is rising continuously. Alongside small bakeries, major industrial groups are making substantial investments in the sector.

Demand has also increased for eateries, restaurants and street food stalls. Wheat is now widely used in the production of noodles, biscuits, bread, chanachur, snacks, dried foods and frozen foods for both the domestic and export markets.

Pran-RFL Group, one of the country's largest food producers, now requires around 2.5 lakh tonnes of wheat a year for its food processing operations, up from about 1.8 lakh tonnes two to three years ago.

Kamruzzaman Kamal, marketing director at Pran-RFL Group, said the processed food market is expanding rapidly and becoming more diversified.

"Demand for wheat-based food products is rising among consumers. These products are being sold not only in the domestic market but also exported abroad," he said.

Echoing Kamal, Taslim Shahriar, deputy general manager of Meghna Group of Industries, said wheat imports have increased because of greater dietary diversity and stronger consumer demand.

Similar views were shared by FH Ansarey, managing director of ACI Agrolink Ltd. Consumers are showing more interest in wheat-based foods than rice because of growing health awareness, he said.

Changing food habits

Although there is no official estimate of the size of the bakery market, industry representatives believe it is worth around Tk15,000 crore. There are around 7,000 manual and live bakeries across the country, employing nearly 10 lakh people. Almost 1,000 bakeries operate in the capital alone.

Corporate investment in the bakery industry has also increased markedly over the past few years, contributing to greater use of wheat.

Md Rezaul Haque Rezu, general secretary of the Bangladesh Bread, Biscuit and Confectionery Manufacturers Association and owner of Haque Bakery, said the industry had suffered first during the pandemic and later because of the Russia-Ukraine war, when many bakeries closed as most wheat imports came from Ukraine.

"Over the last one to one-and-a-half years, the bakery sector has recovered significantly," he said.

"The industry is becoming more diversified and demand is increasing. Many people are eating less rice because of diabetes, while younger consumers are more interested in bakery products. Overall wheat consumption in the country is rising."

Data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics show that changing food habits are contributing to the shift towards wheat. According to the Household Income and Expenditure Survey published in 2023, per capita daily consumption of wheat-based foods rose from 19.8 grams in 2016 to 22.9 grams in 2022, an increase of 15.65%.

Among urban consumers, wheat consumption increased by nearly 26% over the same period, while per capita rice consumption fell by 10.43%.

Rising rice prices and falling wheat prices have also encouraged consumers to switch. Three years ago, loose flour cost Tk8-9 more per kg than coarse rice. Now flour is around Tk15 cheaper.

According to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh, coarse rice currently sells for Tk55-60 per kg, while loose flour costs Tk40-45. In 2023, coarse rice was priced at Tk46-50 per kg, compared with Tk55-58 for flour.

Rising demand in feed industry

Demand for wheat has also increased in the feed industry. Wheat bran is used in animal feed, while wheat itself is widely used in fish feed.

Md Anwarul Haque, general secretary of the Feed Industries Association Bangladesh and managing director of Padma Feed and Chicks Ltd, said fish feed typically contains 18-22% wheat.

"Commercial fish farming is expanding, so demand for feed is also rising. Floating feed is widely used in fish farming, which has increased wheat use in this sector more than ever before," he said.

He added that wheat bran was also used extensively in livestock feed.

Different thoughts

However, not all importers believe the rise reflects a structural increase in demand. Md Shafiul Athar Taslim, director of TK Group, said there is a large market for wheat-based products but argued that imports this year have exceeded actual demand.

"It cannot be said that demand has increased significantly. More wheat has been imported this year than is required. In some years imports are lower, in others they are higher," he said.

The ongoing fuel crisis is disrupting irrigation for the ongoing boro season across multiple districts, with farmers and pump owners struggling to secure diesel at a critical stage of crop growth.

In districts including Brahmanbaria, Bogura, Naogaon, Rangpur, Sirajganj, Tangail and Khulna, farmers say diesel supply has fallen short, forcing them to wait for hours at filling stations or return without fuel. In many areas, diesel is being sold at Tk120-130 per litre, above the government rate, while in some cases it is not available even at pumps.

The shortage is delaying irrigation and increasing costs, as farmers are forced to buy diesel at higher prices or collect fuel from multiple sources. Power outages lasting seven to eight hours a day in some areas are also preventing electric pumps from operating, adding pressure on diesel-run irrigation systems.

Authorities have introduced measures such as priority cards and certification from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) to manage supply. However, farmers say they are still not getting adequate fuel. Some pump owners also said they have not received such cards, while others said the supply does not match official claims of availability.

With most irrigation dependent on diesel, farmers say fields are drying due to delayed watering, crop growth is slowing at the paddy heading stage, and the risk of lower yields is increasing. Some also alleged that parts of the fuel supply are controlled by syndicates, contributing to scarcity, and called for stronger monitoring.

High diesel prices in Brahmanbaria

Farmers in Brahmanbaria are struggling to irrigate boro fields amid diesel shortages and load-shedding.

Pump owners said diesel is not available as required, while electric pumps cannot run due to power outages. Diesel is selling at Tk125-130 per litre in local markets.

Boro has been cultivated on 111,770 hectares in the district this season, with 4,338 diesel-run and 4,287 electric pumps in use.

Load-shedding has increased in rural areas, with many areas facing power cuts for seven to eight hours daily. As a result, electric irrigation pumps cannot be operated regularly.

The shortage has intensified since mid-March, with diesel often unavailable at filling stations and sold at higher prices when available.

Abdul Aziz from Ibrahimpur village in Nabinagar upazila said, "Diesel is available at Tk125 per litre, so we have to charge farmers more," adding that irrigation cost per kani has risen from Tk4,000 to Tk5,000.

Another farmer, Abdul Hannan from Akhaura upazila, said, "We cannot run pumps continuously and often have to collect diesel from different places, which increases costs."

Long queues in north

In Bogura, Angur Begum from Kagail area of Gabtali upazila said collecting diesel has become difficult, with long queues at filling stations and prices Tk10-15 higher per litre.

In Naogaon, a card system has been introduced to prioritise diesel supply, but farmers say supply remains inadequate. Rustam Ali from Bhimpur area of Naogaon Sadar upazila said, "We have to wait for hours, and it is becoming difficult to continue cultivation."

According to the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), most irrigation systems in the region depend on diesel, and the shortage is severely disrupting irrigation. The district has set a target to cultivate boro on 132,410 hectares this season.

In Rangpur, Abdul Malek from Gangachara upazila said diesel is not being sold even when farmers go to filling stations with containers. "Farmers are in a difficult situation. If we cannot irrigate on time, the entire crop may be lost," he said, alleging that some dishonest traders are involved in a fuel syndicate and calling for stronger monitoring.

In Sirajganj, Naim Sheikh from Telkupi village in Khokshabari union said he sometimes buys diesel at Tk120 per litre after waiting for hours, as demand has increased at a critical stage of paddy growth.

Shahidul Islam from Barakandi village in Kamarkhand upazila said pump owners are reducing irrigation to cut costs due to the shortage. "This may lead to lower yield," he said.

50,000 pump owners 'face shortage' in Tangail

More than 50,000 diesel-run irrigation pump owners in Tangail are facing difficulties due to a fuel shortage during the boro season.

Ayub Khan from Gopalkeutail village in Tangail Sadar upazila said diesel is selling at Tk130 per litre against the government rate of Tk100, but remains unavailable. "Paddy is at a critical stage and lack of irrigation could cause losses," he said.

Local residents said the shortage has led to long queues at filling stations, with some remaining closed for one to two days.

Khokon Mia from the same village said he often travels long distances but returns without fuel. "We have not been able to meet demand for weeks," he said, adding that he received only 20 litres after waiting several hours.

"The situation on the ground does not match official claims of adequate supply," he added.

Md Azad Ali and Abdur Rouf from Omorpur village said they have not received farmer cards and already struggle to recover costs from paddy cultivation, adding that the diesel shortage would further increase losses.

Hours of wait even with certification in Khulna

Farmers in Khulna are struggling to get sufficient diesel despite certification from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), often returning with small amounts after waiting for hours.

Gouranga Mondal from Basurabad village in Sadar union of Batiaghata upazila said he has not been getting diesel for 15 days. "Even with certification, I got diesel worth only Tk500 after waiting in line. Without irrigation at this stage, yield will fall," he said.

Debabrata Mondal from the same village said crop growth has slowed as he could not irrigate for 10 days. "The agriculture office says the shortage is due to the ongoing conflict," he said.

Dip Narayan Biswas from Debitala village said he received 60 litres after 13 days using certification. "This will last a few days, but I do not know what will happen next," he said, adding that watermelon cultivation would face losses without regular irrigation.

Stock markets fell on Friday as investors awaited news of an extension to the Iran-US ceasefire, while crude prices edged back down following the previous day's rally.

The losses follow a healthy, record-breaking week for equities, fuelled by hopes the Middle East war, which is heading into a seventh week, could be close to an end after Donald Trump said negotiators were close to a deal.

But worries abound that a shaky truce agreed earlier this month -- and which ends next week -- could fall apart and spark a fresh market rout.

The US president on Thursday struck an optimistic tone, telling reporters that "it's looking very good that we're going to make a deal with Iran, and it's going to be a good deal", adding that talks between Washington and Tehran could resume this weekend.

He also claimed Iran had "agreed to give us back the nuclear dust", using his name for the country's enriched uranium stockpile, and the deal would include "free oil" as well as the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

"We had to make sure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon," Trump said at the White House. "They've totally agreed to that. They've agreed to almost everything, so maybe if they can get to the table, there's a difference."

Iran has given no public indication that it would surrender its stockpile.

However, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth took a tough line on the situation earlier in the day, telling a Pentagon news conference: "If Iran chooses poorly, then they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy."

Meanwhile, some Gulf Arab and European leaders fear a long-term agreement could take six months to achieve and called for the truce to cover such a time period, Bloomberg reported.

They wanted the Strait of Hormuz -- through which about a fifth of global oil and LNG passes -- opened immediately and have warned in private of a global food crisis if that is not achieved by next month, the report said.

Fragile sentiment

Stocks fell across the region, with Tokyo, which hit a record high Thursday, among the biggest losers, with Seoul, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Wellington, Manila and Singapore also well down.

Taiwan's TAIEX dropped. On Thursday it hit a market capitalisation of US$4.14 trillion to top the UK's market capitalisation and become the world's seventh biggest, according to Bloomberg data.

London edged lower, Paris edged up, and Frankfurt was flat.

That came even after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq enjoyed record closes on Wall Street.

Analysts said traders were heading into the weekend to position for any surprise developments.

Oil prices dropped, a day after sharp gains, though both main contracts remain just below $100 a barrel.

There was some support from a 10-day ceasefire agreed between Israel and Lebanon that took effect at 2100 GMT Thursday.

Tel Aviv has sent troops into its northern neighbour since militant group Hezbollah launched rocket attacks in support of Iran last month.

Hezbollah has not officially said if it will recognise the ceasefire, but one of its lawmakers told AFP on Thursday that the group would respect it if Israeli attacks on its militants stopped.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon offered an opportunity for a "historic peace agreement", but insisted that the disarmament of militant group Hezbollah remained a precondition.

Trump said he will invite the countries' leaders to the White House.

"While investors remain buoyed by talks of an extension in the US-Iran ceasefire and an announced Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire, risk sentiment remains fragile as an immediate deal remains unlikely given that the countries remain far apart on key issues," wrote National Australia Bank's Skye Masters.

Fiona Cincotta of City Index said, "While risks remain -- particularly around disruptions to key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz -- markets are increasingly pricing in a scenario where oil prices have peaked unless tensions re-escalate."

But she warned, "the outlook remains fragile. A breakdown in diplomacy or renewed escalation could quickly reverse recent gains".

Key figures around 0715 GMT

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.8 percent at 58,475.90 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.2 percent at 26,087.89

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 4,051.43 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 10,584.26

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.0 percent at $93.73 a barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.6 percent at $98.76 a barrel

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1777 from $1.1784 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3507 from $1.3529

Dollar/yen: UP at 159.40 yen from 159.14 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 87.17 pence from 87.09 pence

New York - Dow Jones: UP 0.2 percent at 48,578.72 (close)

Iran said it was tightening control over the ​Strait of Hormuz on Saturday (18 April), warning mariners that the energy lifeline was again closed, as shipping sources said at least two vessels reported coming under fire while trying to transit the waterway.

Tehran said it ‌was responding to a continued US blockade of Iranian ports, calling it a violation of their ceasefire, while Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran's navy was ready to inflict "new bitter defeats" on its enemies.

Tehran's renewed tough messaging injected fresh uncertainty around the Iran conflict, raising the risk that oil and gas shipments through the Strait could remain disrupted just as Washington weighs whether to extend the fragile ceasefire.

Some merchant vessels received radio messages from Iran's navy saying no ships were allowed through the waterway, maritime security and shipping sources said, reversing signs earlier in the day that traffic ​might resume.

At least two vessels reported being hit by gunfire as they attempted to cross the strait, the sources said.

Earlier, maritime trackers had shown a convoy of eight tankers transiting the narrow passage in the first major movement ​of ships since the US-Israeli war on Iran began seven weeks ago.

US-Iran ceasefire due to end on Wednesday

Hours earlier, US President Donald Trump had cited "some pretty good news" about Iran, declining to ⁠elaborate. But he also said fighting might resume without a peace deal by Wednesday, when the two-week ceasefire expires.

Iran had announced its temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following a separate US-brokered 10-day ceasefire agreement on Thursday between Israel and Lebanon. Israel ​invaded parts of southern Lebanon after the Iran-allied Hezbollah militant group joined the fighting in early March.

But on Saturday Iran's armed forces command said transit through the strait had reverted to a state of strict Iranian military control, citing what it described ​as repeated US violations and acts of "piracy" under the guise of a blockade.

The spokesperson said Iran had earlier agreed, "in good faith," to the managed passage of a limited number of oil tankers and commercial vessels following negotiations, but said continued US actions had forced Tehran to restore tighter controls on shipping through the strategic chokepoint.

US Central Command said in a statement that American forces were enforcing a maritime blockade of Iran, but did not comment on the latest Iranian actions.

Unclear if any direct talks this weekend

The war with Iran, which began on 28 February with a US-Israeli ​attack on the Islamic Republic, has killed thousands, spread to Israeli attacks in Lebanon and sent oil prices surging because of the de facto closure of the strait.

Despite the initial movement of ships, Iran's deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said no ​date had been set for the next round of negotiations, adding that a framework of understanding must be agreed first.

Asked about reports Tehran had closed the Strait, he said that the Americans had violated the terms of the ceasefire, and so "there will be repercussions for them".

Pressure for ‌a way out ⁠of the war has mounted as Trump's fellow Republicans defend narrow majorities in Congress in the November midterm elections with US gasoline prices high, inflation rising and his own approval ratings down.

"It seems to be going very well in the Middle East with Iran," Trump told reporters on Air Force One while returning to Washington from Phoenix, Arizona, on Friday. "We're negotiating over the weekend. I expect things to go well. Many of these things have been negotiated and agreed to.

"The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. You cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon, and that supersedes everything else."

But in sharp contrast, Trump also said he might end the ceasefire with Iran unless a long-term deal to end the war was agreed before it ​expires on Wednesday, adding that a US blockade of Iranian ports ​would continue.

Trump has told Reuters there would probably be ⁠more direct talks between Iran and the US this weekend. Some diplomats said that was unlikely given the logistics of gathering in Islamabad, where the talks are expected to take place.

There were no signs of preparations early on Saturday for talks in the Pakistani capital, where the highest-level US-Iran negotiations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution ended without agreement last weekend.

The key Pakistani mediator, ​army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, has concluded three days of talks in Tehran, the Pakistani military said. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was also returning to Islamabad after talks ​this week in Qatar, Saudi Arabia ⁠and Turkey.

A Pakistani source aware of mediation efforts said a meeting between Iran and the US could produce an initial memorandum of understanding, followed by a comprehensive peace agreement within 60 days.

No clarity on Iran's nuclear programme

Differences remained over Tehran's nuclear programme, which has been a sticking point in peace talks, with Iran defending its right to what it says is a civilian nuclear energy programme.

Trump told Reuters the US would remove Iran's stockpiles of enriched uranium. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson told state TV the material would not be transferred ⁠anywhere.

Separately, a senior ​Iranian official said Tehran hoped a preliminary agreement could be reached in the coming days.

Oil prices , fell about 10% and global stocks jumped on Friday on ​the prospect of marine traffic resuming through the strait. Despite that, hundreds of vessels and about 20,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Gulf awaiting passage through the waterway, shipping sources said.

At last weekend's talks, the US proposed a 20-year suspension of all Iranian nuclear activity, while Iran suggested a halt of ​three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals.

Two Iranian sources have said there were signs of a compromise that could remove part of the stockpile.

The unequal agreement signed by the interim government with the US poses a major obstacle to energy security in Bangladesh rather than the disruption in fuel imports through the Strait of Hormuz, said Debapriya Bhattacharya, a public policy analyst.

“The Strait of Hormuz is indeed an obstacle to fuel imports, but the US trade agreement is a bigger barrier,” he said at a pre-budget shadow parliamentary debate competition organised by the Debate for Democracy on Saturday.

The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) signed on February 9, just three days before the election, commits Bangladesh to purchasing $15 billion in US energy products, including LNG, over 15 years. It also restricts Bangladesh’s ability to buy cheaper fuel from countries under US sanctions such as Russia.

“The current government says it will not pursue country-specific foreign policies. Yet, that is exactly what is happening in the trade deal -- we now need permission regarding whom we can buy oil from,” said Bhattacharya, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue.

However, Bangladesh should make the best of the 60-day waiver offered by the US on oil purchases from Russia.

While criticising the deposed government, Bhattacharya said the energy policy was confusing and controversial, with exploitative policies adopted by an unholy nexus of bureaucrats, business groups and politicians.

Instead of productive investment, priority was given to import-dependent energy strategies to serve vested interests, leading to the import of LNG instead of domestic gas exploration.

Institutions like the state-owned Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration and Production Company (BAPEX) were weakened.

There were major irregularities in energy imports, Bhattacharya said.

The government has formed a cabinet committee on energy security, but it should inform the public about its activities through transparency and bring the matter for discussion in the national parliament.

Although the government has spoken about forming a reform commission in line with its electoral promises, it has not yet been made visible.

The government should clearly disclose its plans for reforms in public financial management, revenue collection and incentives, Bhattacharya added.

While moderating the programme, Hassan Ahamed Chowdhury Kiron, chairman of the Debate for Democracy, said that due to past corruption, Bangladesh failed to achieve self-reliance in energy.

Import dependence was increased for vested interests, while domestic production was neglected.

Therefore, ensuring energy security will be a major challenge for the government in the upcoming budget, he said.

The upcoming budget must reflect the expectations of ordinary people.

During a crisis, a people-friendly, business-friendly, sustainable and cautious budget needs to be presented.

The new government, which has achieved a large mandate, must maintain its popularity by presenting a budget that ensures maximum welfare, avoids placing pressure on lower- and middle-income groups, prevents public suffering and maintains price stability.

Additionally, to keep the economy active and ensure investment and employment growth, a hassle-free business environment must be created.

Therefore, the upcoming budget must be people-oriented and practical, he said.

Uttara Bank PLC has decided to bolster the financial standing of its brokerage subsidiary, Uttara Bank Securities Limited, by investing Tk192 crore through a rights share subscription.

The decision, aimed at expanding the firm's capital and ensuring smoother operations, comes at a time when the subsidiary is grappling with financial losses and a relatively small capital footprint.

According to a price-sensitive statement issued by the bank, the investment will be made by subscribing to a rights offer recently approved by the subsidiary's shareholders.

The rights offer was formally sanctioned during an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) of Uttara Bank Securities on 16 April. Under the approved terms, the brokerage firm will issue four rights shares for every one existing share held by its investors. Each of these rights shares is valued at its face value of Tk10, with the total initiative set to raise Tk200 crore in fresh paid-up capital.

The capital injection is structured to reflect the current shareholding pattern of the brokerage firm. While Uttara Bank will provide the lion's share of the funds, amounting to Tk192 crore, the remaining Tk8 crore will be subscribed by six individual investors who hold a minor stake in the company.

According to the bank's statement, the entire subscription process must be completed within 30 days of the EGM approval date.

Speaking to The Business Standard regarding the move, Muhammad Golam Farukh, chief executive officer of Uttara Bank Securities, said the firm's existing paid-up capital of Tk50 crore was insufficient for its growing operational needs.

He added that the primary objective behind increasing the capital is to strengthen the firm's capital base, which is essential for maintaining stability and ensuring the brokerage house can function efficiently in a competitive market.

This move toward capital fortification is also aligned with the evolving regulatory landscape. The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) enacted risk-based capital rules on 29 May 2019, setting minimum capital requirements ranging between Tk5 crore and Tk15 crore for stockbrokers, depending on the nature of their operations. These rules were formulated based on the bitter experience of the 2010-11 stock market crash, where lenders were largely blamed for disbursing margin loans far beyond their risk-management capacities.

Furthermore, the conditions of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the best practices of developed financial markets were taken into account while formulating these risk-based supervision rules. By raising its capital, Uttara Bank Securities is moving to ensure it remains well above regulatory cushions and is prepared for more complex market activities.

Uttara Bank Securities was incorporated in 2013 as a fully-fledged subsidiary of Uttara Bank and holds a Trading Right Entitlement Certificate (TREC) at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). Despite its decade-long presence, the firm has faced a challenging financial period recently.

In the first nine months of 2025, the firm incurred a net loss of Tk4.94 crore. Furthermore, its financial statements for 2024 revealed negative retained earnings of Tk1.80 crore, although the firm maintained a significant asset base valued at Tk369.70 crore during the same period.

In contrast to the subsidiary's struggles, the parent organisation remains financially robust. Uttara Bank reported a consolidated net profit of Tk335 crore for the January–September period of 2025, with a consolidated earnings per share (EPS) of Tk3.46. This strong performance by the parent bank provides the necessary fiscal cushion to support its subsidiary through this capital expansion.

Currently, Uttara Bank maintains 99.994% ownership in the securities firm, with the remaining portion held by the six individual investors. This strategic move is expected to transform the subsidiary's balance sheet and provide the necessary liquidity to navigate the volatility of the capital market, said the bank.

Claim settlement in Bangladesh's life insurance sector improved significantly in the final quarter of 2025, yet many policyholders remain unpaid, deepening the sector's persistent crisis of confidence.

According to unaudited data from the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (Idra), total claims in the life insurance sector stood at Tk13,158 crore by the end of the October-December quarter.

Of this, companies managed to settle Tk8,755 crore, leaving Tk4,403 crore in unpaid claims. In percentage terms, the settlement rate rose to 67%, a sharp increase from just 35% in the previous quarter.

A similar trend is visible in terms of policy numbers. Out of a total of 28.43 lakh matured policies, claims for 16.58 lakh have been settled. However, around 11.85 lakh policyholders are still waiting for payments.

Industry insiders said increased regulatory pressure and closer monitoring by the authorities played a key role to the higher settlement rate in the final quarter. As companies approached the year-end, the need for licence renewal also pushed them to settle claims. Besides, higher business volumes during this period improved liquidity, enabling insurers to pay more claims.

Despite this progress, structural weaknesses in the sector remain evident. Stakeholders said that while a handful of well-performing companies are committed to timely claim settlements, many others continue to show little urgency. As a result, delays persist, leaving policyholders in uncertainty. In many cases, customers wait years, even after policy maturity, to receive their dues.

Insurance expert and UNDP consultant SM Zialul Haque explained that typically 40% to 45% of life insurance business is conducted in the final quarter, compared to 20% to 25% during other periods.

"This increases cash flow for companies, allowing them to settle more claims," he told TBS, pointing out that regulatory pressure related to licence renewal further compels companies to act.

He added that nearly one-third of insurers show a strong reluctance to settle claims. However, a segment of companies remains proactive, especially when they have sufficient funds. "The good companies always try to pay customers on time. But the reluctance of some players is affecting the entire sector."

Top insurers pay over 95%

Data shows that MetLife Bangladesh settled 98.3% of its claims during the period. Its Chief Executive Officer Ala Ahmad said, "The true value of insurance is proven at the moment a claim is made. In 2025, we are proud to have settled Tk2,853 crore in claims, the highest in the industry."

He added that MetLife operates through disciplined financial management and significant technology investments. "We have ensured the largest life fund and a digital process that delivers claim payments in just three to five days."

Pragati Life Insurance also set a positive example by settling 98.5% of its claims. Managing Director and CEO Md Jalalul Azim said that around seven to eight companies are consistently working to improve settlement rates. However, others are moving in the opposite direction, showing little commitment to paying customer claims, which is harming the sector as a whole.

Sheikh Rakibul Karim, Chief Executive Officer of Guardian Life Insurance, said, "Every settlement reflects our commitment to keeping our promises. By ensuring transparency and prompt support, we strive to stand beside our customers and their families when it matters most." The company settled 97.5% of its claims within the stipulated period.

Regulatory interventions

Idra spokesperson Saifunnahar Sumi told TBS that the recent improvements are the result of a series of regulatory interventions. The authority is working to maintain a non-corrupt and unbiased regulatory environment while implementing reforms. These include introducing a grading system for insurers, placing lower-ranked companies under special audits, and rewarding better-performing firms.

The regulator has also strengthened accountability through governance review meetings, where board chairmen and senior management are required to attend. In addition, an interview system has been introduced for the appointment and reappointment of CEOs and advisers to ensure compliance.

The Idra spokesperson said efforts were under way to introduce the proposed Insurers' Resolution Act, which would allow authorities to place non-performing companies under resolution if they fail to improve.

"Amendments to the Insurance Act are also being finalised, including provisions for strict penalties if claims are not settled within the stipulated time," Sumi said. "The regulator is regularly monitoring and following up on unresolved claims to ensure faster settlements."

Bangladesh’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sector has grown rapidly, yet lacks the storage capacity to buffer itself against global market shocks, according to the president of the LPG Operators Association of Bangladesh (LOAB).

“Expanding storage capacity is essential for improving supply security,” Mohammed Amirul Haque said in an interview with The Daily Star recently. “If operators can store larger volumes, they can better manage fluctuations in global supply and price movements.”

According to industry estimates, Bangladesh currently consumes around 17-18 lakh tonnes of LPG annually. Around 80 percent of this demand comes from households, mainly for cooking in areas where natural gas through pipeline is unavailable. Industrial, commercial, and autogas use together account for the remaining share.

Haque, also the managing director of Delta LPG Limited, said the country’s transition toward LPG took place over the last decade after the government decided to permanently halt new pipeline gas connections to households in order to manage limited domestic gas reserves.

He, however, pointed out that the industry’s dependence on imports means that the entire supply chain, from procurement to pricing, remains highly sensitive to global market conditions.

“Geopolitical tensions, disruptions in shipping routes, or volatility in international benchmark prices can directly affect supply costs and domestic pricing,” he said.

Most LPG used in Bangladesh is sourced from the Middle East, with prices typically linked to the Saudi Aramco Contract Price, which serves as a reference point for global LPG trade. Changes in that benchmark are quickly transmitted to the domestic market, leaving consumers exposed to international volatility.

“Any disruption in the international supply chain can affect Bangladesh’s LPG market because we do not have significant domestic production,” Haque said. “Even freight costs and insurance premiums can change depending on geopolitical developments, which ultimately affects the landed cost of LPG.”

Disruptions along major shipping corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea can have immediate repercussions on global LPG trade flows.

When global shipping rates rise, the additional cost is reflected in the final price of LPG in the domestic market.

Haque argued that the country’s growing LPG demand has intensified the need for stronger storage and distribution infrastructure. Currently, most operators rely on coastal storage terminals and bottling plants to distribute LPG cylinders across the country.

“Expanding storage capacity is essential for improving supply security,” he said. “If operators can store larger volumes, they can better manage fluctuations in global supply and price movements.”

Without sufficient storage, the market remains more vulnerable to sudden price spikes or supply delays, he added.

Diversifying import sources is another important strategy for reducing supply risk, the LOAB president also said, noting that Bangladesh relies heavily on a relatively small number of international suppliers.

By broadening procurement sources and strengthening supply agreements with multiple exporting countries, the industry could reduce its exposure to regional disruptions, he said.

Haque also called for infrastructure improvements at ports and terminals to support the continued expansion of the sector, noting that such logistical bottlenecks can slow shipment movement and increase costs.

Domestically, he said, private sector investment has played a major role in expanding LPG infrastructure across Bangladesh. Over the past decade, operators have invested heavily in bottling plants, storage facilities and distribution networks to support the growing market.

However, regulatory stability and predictable pricing mechanisms are also crucial for maintaining investor confidence in a market that is closely tied to global energy dynamics.

Local LPG prices are regulated by the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission, which adjusts retail prices in line with international benchmarks. While this mechanism provides transparency, sudden changes in global prices can still create challenges for both operators and consumers.

“Transparent and predictable pricing mechanisms are essential,” Haque said. “When international prices rise, adjustments should be gradual so that consumers are not suddenly burdened while the industry remains financially viable.”

He expects demand for LPG to continue growing as urbanisation increases and more households move away from traditional cooking fuels such as firewood and biomass.

Industrial and commercial sectors are also gradually expanding their use of LPG due to its efficiency and environmental advantages compared with some conventional fuels.

Industry projections suggest that Bangladesh’s LPG consumption could reach around 40 lakh tonnes annually over the next decade if infrastructure and policy support keep pace with demand.

However, the country’s continued reliance on imported LPG means that global market conditions will remain a defining factor in the sector’s long-term stability.

Strengthening storage capacity, diversifying supply sources, improving port infrastructure and ensuring regulatory consistency will be key steps toward building a more resilient LPG supply chain, said Haque.

Two listed non-life insurance companies – Bangladesh National Insurance Company and Central Insurance Company have declared cash dividends for the year ended 31 December 2025, as both firms posted earnings growth alongside contrasting cash flow performances.

Bangladesh National Insurance Company has recommended a 22% cash dividend for the period. The insurer will hold its annual general meeting (AGM) on 23 June 2026 through a digital platform, while the record date has been set for 13 May 2026.

The company's share price on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) declined 1.66% to Tk70.90 on Thursday.

Despite the market dip, the insurer posted stronger financial results in 2025. Its earnings per share (EPS) rose to Tk4.81 from Tk4.19 a year earlier, while net asset value (NAV) per share increased to Tk31.26 from Tk28.45, indicating improved profitability and asset growth.

However, net operating cash flow per share (NOCFPS) fell sharply to Tk4.10 from Tk6.71 in 2024, signalling weaker cash generation from core operations.

The company provides general insurance services across fire, motor, marine, engineering, personal accident, contractor all risk, industrial all risk and health insurance segments.

Meanwhile, Central Insurance Company has recommended a 12% cash dividend for the same financial year. Its AGM will be held on 18 June 2026 via a digital platform, with the record date fixed for 20 May 2026.

The company's share price slipped slightly by 0.25% to Tk40.40 on Thursday's trading session at the DSE.

Central Insurance recorded modest financial growth in 2025, with EPS rising to Tk1.87 from Tk1.85 and NAV per share improving to Tk50.69 from Tk50.17, reflecting stable performance.

Unlike Bangladesh National Insurance, the company saw a slight improvement in cash flow, with NOCFPS increasing to Tk1.64 from Tk1.50 a year earlier.

Its insurance portfolio includes fire, marine cargo, marine hull, engineering, motor, liability, aviation, overseas mediclaim and other miscellaneous products.

Analysts said both insurers maintained operational stability through steady EPS and NAV growth. However, they cautioned that diverging cash flow trends highlight the need for closer scrutiny of liquidity conditions, particularly for Bangladesh National Insurance.

They added that while earnings remain positive, sustained cash generation will be key to assessing long-term financial strength.

The ongoing US-Israel war on Iran has disrupted global trade and weighed on economic growth, but some sectors are benefiting from heightened volatility and shifting policy priorities.

The International Monetary Fund has cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, citing supply disruptions linked in part to the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Gulf energy infrastructure, says Al Jazeera.

Here are five sectors that analysts say are seeing gains:

Why are Wall Street banks benefiting?

Major US investment banks have reported higher profits as market volatility drives trading activity and portfolio shifts.

Morgan Stanley posted a 29% rise in profit to $5.57 billion, while Goldman Sachs reported a 19% increase to $5.63 billion. JPMorgan Chase recorded a 13% gain to $16.49 billion.

Banks cited "robust client engagement" to explain the results. Analysts say frequent repositioning by investors—sometimes referred to by traders as the "TACO trade," short for "Trump Always Chickens Out"—has boosted commissions and trading revenues.

"Clients want to reposition, so they trade frequently. Spreads tend to increase, which increases the profitability for trade intermediaries like banks," said Sean Dunlap, director of equity research at Morningstar Research Services.

What is driving growth in prediction markets?

Crypto-based prediction platforms are drawing increased attention as users speculate on geopolitical outcomes.

Polymarket has expanded rapidly, revising its fee structure in March 2026 and generating more than $21 million in fees in early April alone.

Regulators are examining the sector over concerns about potential insider trading linked to event-based betting, while data suggests the majority of gains accrue to a small share of users.

How is the defense sector performing?

Global military spending has risen amid conflicts in Iran, Ukraine and Gaza, supporting defense contractors.

Members of NATO have pledged to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, particularly in Europe.

The MSCI World Aerospace and Defense Index has delivered net returns of about 32% year-on-year, outperforming broader equity benchmarks.

Why is artificial intelligence holding up?

The AI sector has remained resilient despite wider economic uncertainty, supported by strong demand for computing infrastructure.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported first-quarter net income of $18.1 billion, up 58% from a year earlier, reflecting continued demand for advanced semiconductors.

Companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic are also pursuing plans to go public, signaling investor interest in the sector.

"Despite the shocks from the Iran war, we're still seeing resilience in a lot of sectors like artificial intelligence and renewable energy," said Nick Marro, lead analyst for global trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

How is the war affecting renewable energy?

Energy supply disruptions have accelerated investment in alternatives to fossil fuels.

Countries in Asia, many of which rely heavily on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, are increasing support for solar, wind and nuclear power as part of energy security strategies.

"Boosted" renewable energy "given the urgency to switch away from fossil fuels and diversify towards renewable sources," said Nick Marro.

A report from the International Energy Agency said: "150 countries have active policies to advance renewable and nuclear deployment, 130 have energy efficiency and electrification policies, and 32 have policies to incentivise supply chain resilience and diversification across critical minerals and clean energy technologies."

The S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index has risen nearly 71% year-on-year, reflecting increased policy backing and investor demand.

What is the broader outlook?

While these sectors are benefiting, economists warn that prolonged conflict and supply disruptions could continue to weigh on global growth, trade and energy markets, underscoring uneven economic effects from the war.