News

Unilever Consumer Care revenue drops by 8% in Jan-Mar
21 Apr 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Unilever Consumer Care reported that its revenue dropped by 8% in the first quarter of this year.

According to the financial statement for the January-March period of 2026, the health drinks like Horlicks producer posted a revenue of Tk87.44 crore, which was Tk95.40 crore during the same quarter a year ago.

Following the revenue decline, its net profit also dropped by 12% year-on-year to Tk12.11 crore in the first quarter.

At the end of March, its earnings per share stood at Tk6.29, which was Tk7.13 a year ago.

Govt to prioritise 12 sectors in upcoming budget
21 Apr 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

In alignment with the BNP government's election manifesto, the finance ministry will prioritise 12 sectors in the upcoming FY2026-27 budget, including ensuring advanced education and healthcare, job creation, and food and energy security.

The Finance Division has instructed various ministries to submit their budget estimates for the next fiscal year and projections for the following two fiscal years to the finance ministry by 30 April, keeping these priorities in mind.

A circular issued today (20 April) emphasised prioritising human resource development, social protection, women and child development, poverty alleviation, the expansion of creative economic activities, tackling climate change, and bringing dynamism to economic development.

The first budget of the BNP government is likely to be announced on 11 June.

The estimated budget size is Tk9.30 lakh crore, which includes Tk3 lakh crore for development expenditure and Tk6.30 lakh crore for operating expenditure.

Pioneer Insurance profit rises 25% despite 19% drop in premium income
21 Apr 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Pioneer Insurance PLC posted a 25% year-on-year growth in net profit in the first quarter of 2026, driven largely by a sharp cut in management expenses, even as its premium income declined significantly.

According to the company's financial statements for the January–March period, net profit after tax rose to Tk16.59 crore, up from the same period last year. Earnings per share (EPS) also increased to Tk1.70, compared to Tk1.36 a year earlier.

However, the insurer's premium income dropped by 19% to Tk77.72 crore during the quarter, reflecting a broader slowdown in the general insurance sector.

The profit growth was mainly supported by a 45% reduction in management expenses, which fell to Tk16.37 crore. The decline followed a regulatory move by the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (IDRA) to cancel agent commissions for non-life insurers, easing operational costs.

Despite the improved bottom line, the company faced rising claims, which surged by 64% year-on-year to Tk12.11 crore during the quarter.

Commenting on the performance, Syed Shahriyar Ahsan, chief executive officer of Pioneer Insurance, said the industry is currently navigating a challenging environment.

"The cancellation of agent commissions has significantly reduced business volumes that were previously driven by agents," he told The Business Standard.

He added that a slowdown in private sector exports and imports, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has further impacted the sector.

According to Ahsan, the general insurance industry experienced a combined premium income decline of Tk221 crore in the first two months of 2026, reflecting sluggish economic activity and the absence of agent incentives.

He also raised concerns over pricing practices among smaller insurers, alleging that some companies are undercutting premiums to secure business. "This creates an uneven playing field for companies that maintain standard pricing and transparency," he said, urging regulators to address the issue.

To stabilise the sector, he suggested reintroducing mandatory motor insurance, citing rising road accidents and the need to expand coverage while improving industry transparency.

Despite the quarterly profit growth, investor sentiment remained cautious. Pioneer Insurance shares declined by 1.13% to close at Tk61.30 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange on Monday.

For the year ended 31 December 2025, the company reported an EPS of Tk4.57 and a net asset value per share of Tk46.97. Based on this performance, its board has recommended a 25% cash dividend alongside a 5% stock dividend, subject to regulatory approval.

The company's annual general meeting is scheduled to be held on 4 May through a digital platform.

Shahjibazar Power profit surges 138% in Jul-Mar FY26
21 Apr 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Shahjibazar Power Co Ltd, a concern of Youth Group, has reported a staggering 138% growth in its consolidated net profit during the first nine months of the 2025-26 fiscal year, driven by higher operational efficiency and strong contributions from its associate companies.

According to the company's price-sensitive disclosure released on Monday following its board meeting, consolidated net profit reached Tk81.53 crore for the July-March period, while the consolidated earnings per share (EPS) surged to Tk4.37 from the previous year's levels.

This growth was supported by a 15% increase in total consolidated revenue, which climbed to Tk1,055 crore.

The company's performance was even more robust in the third quarter alone, spanning January to March, where consolidated net profit skyrocketed by 254% to settle at Tk24.71 crore.

During these three months, consolidated revenue grew by 13% to Tk331.31 crore, yielding an EPS of Tk1.32.

The company attributed this stellar numerical performance primarily to a substantial increase in its plant factor, which rose to 77% during this period compared to just 55% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Beyond its core operations, Shahjibazar Power benefited significantly from its diversified investment portfolio.

A senior company official noted that the firm's bottom line was bolstered by substantial earnings from its two associate companies – Midland East Power and Midland Power Company.

Additionally, the company's subsidiary, Petromax Refinery Limited, showed a healthy recovery, with its revenue jumping by 6% to Tk721.32 crore during the nine-month period.

The parent company, Shahjibazar Power, also displayed remarkable standalone strength as its revenue grew by 41% to reach Tk333.71 crore.

On Monday, Shahjibazar Power shares ended 2.12% higher at Tk53.10 at the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

Foreign investment falls 18%
20 Apr 2026;
Source: Daily Sun

Economists have attributed the decline to overall political instability and uncertainty surrounding the elections.

Former World Bank Dhaka office lead economist Zahid Hossain said there was no conducive environment for investment at the time.

“There was uncertainty over the direction of political consensus, making it unrealistic to expect foreign funds to flow into the country. Although the interim government took some initiatives to attract investment, those efforts faced obstacles,” he said.

He added that foreign investors were hesitant as they knew the interim government would not be permanent and there was no clear roadmap regarding the elections.


Reinvested earnings also saw a sharp decline during the period. Bangladesh Bank data showed a 35.31 percent drop, with reinvested earnings standing at $217.4 million at the end of the October–December quarter, compared to $325.75 million a year earlier.

Reinvested earnings refer to profits generated by foreign companies from local operations that are reinvested in the country instead of being repatriated. While this indicates some level of investment activity, overall FDI growth depends largely on new equity investments, which remain weak.

Distinguished Fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Mustafizur Rahman said foreign firms reduced reinvested earnings considering the overall economic and political environment.

“There was uncertainty over whether elections would take place, which discouraged reinvestment. Although elections were held in February, concerns persisted during that quarter,” he said.

Apart from political factors, economists pointed to several structural challenges hindering FDI inflows, including policy complexities, high business costs, and infrastructural limitations.

Bangladesh also lags behind other South Asian countries in port management, transport, and logistics facilities, as well as cargo and container handling capacity.

Mustafizur Rahman said issues such as the absence of an effective single-window system and high costs of doing business are discouraging foreign investors.

“Even if the political environment improves, investment will not increase unless these structural problems are addressed. The arrival of an elected government alone will not automatically boost FDI, as investors evaluate overall opportunities and conditions,” he added.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said private sector investment has also declined, indicating that both local and foreign investors are reluctant to undertake new investments.

According to Bangladesh Bank, total foreign investment—including equity, reinvested earnings, and intra-company loans—stood at $363.82 million during the period, down from $494 million in the same quarter of 2024.

 

DSEX dips on fuel price adjustment, geopolitical jitters
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

The country's capital market began the week on a sluggish note today (19 April), as investors remained cautious following the recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices and ongoing uncertainty regarding the Middle East conflict.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) edged down by approximately 9 points to settle at 5,247.

Market participants remained cautious, refraining from taking fresh positions and instead adopting a wait-and-see stance amid lingering geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties that continued to weigh on market momentum.

Despite a relatively steady performance during the mid-session, the early optimism failed to hold as mounting selling pressure in major large-cap scrips eventually eroded the initial gains.

EBL Securities, in its daily market review, noted that the recent hike in domestic fuel prices further reinstated investor caution.

While the benchmark index fell, the blue-chip DS30 index saw a marginal uptick, closing at 1,990. However, the overall market breadth remained bearish, with 223 issues declining against 125 advancing, while 56 remained unchanged.

Trading activity on the premier bourse saw a slight upward trend compared to previous sessions, with total turnover rising to Tk819 crore.

On the sectoral front, the engineering sector dominated market participation, accounting for 18.9% of the total turnover, followed by the textile and general insurance sectors.

However, the majority of sectors recorded negative returns. The paper and printing sector faced the steepest correction, dropping by 1.7%, while the travel and leisure and jute sectors declined by 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively.

In contrast, the general insurance sector emerged as a rare bright spot, posting a 2.2% gain, while the textile and tannery sectors also managed to end the day with marginal positive returns.

Several high-cap stocks acted as significant index draggers during the session, including Islami Bank, Walton Hi-Tech Industries, National Bank, ACI, and Beacon Pharmaceuticals.

On the other hand, turnover leaders included City Bank, Paramount Textile, Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag, Runner Auto, and Acme Pesticides.

Among individual stocks, Runner Auto and Janata Insurance emerged as the top gainers, both surging by 9.94%, while Sonar Bangla Insurance and Prime Textile also posted significant gains.

Conversely, Popular Life First Mutual Fund and Meghna Cement were among the top losers of the session, facing notable price corrections.

The bearish sentiment was mirrored at the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), where the key indices both closed in negative territory.

The CSCX ended 5 points lower at 9,035, while the CASPI shed 9 points to settle at 14,751. Turnover at the port city bourse, however, saw an increase, reaching Tk41 crore

Oil claws back losses as Strait of Hormuz is closed again
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Oil prices rebounded more than 6% today (20 April) after tumbling more than 9% on Friday on news the Strait of Hormuz is closed again after both the US and Iran said the other party had violated their ceasefire deal by attacking ships over the weekend.

Brent crude futures jumped $6.11, or 6.76%, to $96.49 a barrel by 2327 GMT and US West Texas Intermediate was at $90.38 a barrel, ⁠up $6.53, or 7.79%.

The US military had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade, US President Donald Trump said yesterday, while Iran said it would not participate in a second round of peace talks despite Trump's threat of renewed airstrikes.

The United States has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran has lifted and then reimposed its own blockade of the Strait, which handled roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply before the war began almost two months ago.

"Oil markets continue to gyrate in response to ⁠oscillating social media posts by the US and Iran, rather than the realities on the ground which remain challenging for oil flows to resume in a rapid fashion," Saul Kavonic, MST Marquee's head of research, said.

Both contracts posted on Friday their largest daily declines since April 18 after ⁠Iran said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remaining ceasefire period and Trump said Iran had agreed to never close the strait again.

"The announcement of ⁠the Strait opening proved premature," Kavonic said.

"Ship owners will be twice shy about heading towards the Strait again without receiving much more confidence that any announced passage is ⁠real."

More than 20 ships passed the strait on Saturday carrying oil, liquefied petroleum gas, metals and fertilizers, Kpler data showed, the highest number of vessels crossing the waterway since 1 March.

Govt will not take loans from IMF by accepting all conditions: Khosru
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has said that the government will not accept all the conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to take loans.

"Decisions will be taken after safeguarding the interests of the country's people and businesses," he said while speaking with journalists at his office in the Secretariat today (19 April), after returning from the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings.

Khosru stressed that the relationship with the IMF is not charitable but commercial.

He further said, "There are many ongoing discussions between the government of Bangladesh and the IMF and World Bank, and the issue is not only about the amount of money involved, which many people fail to understand."

He added that loan discussions with the IMF are ongoing and may continue for another 15 to 20 days, or even up to a month.

"We have not fully agreed with the IMF in the discussions. We are reviewing what the IMF is asking for, and we also have our own expectations. We are an elected government, and we will not accept everything just because someone asks us to," Khosru said.

The current government will not take any decision that creates pressure on the people or businesses, he added.

Khosru said discussions with the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Infrastructure Bank have already been completed.

He said the current IMF loan programme is not tied to the months of June or July.

"Many people do not understand this. The current IMF programme was taken under the previous Awami League government and includes many conditions. Its tenure is only seven months. Some of those conditions may not be acceptable to the current government."

"We will decide whether we will proceed with the next programme," Khosru added.

Responding to a journalist's comment that the introduction of the Family Card may have caused the IMF to step back or impose new conditions, the finance minister said there is no connection between the Family Card and IMF loans.

"On the contrary, the Family Card has been widely appreciated. It will help deliver the benefits of the economy to poor people."

When asked whether the increase in fuel prices was made to meet IMF conditions, he said fuel prices have increased globally.

"We are not the only ones who have increased prices. Everyone has asked why we are not increasing fuel prices. In Sri Lanka, fuel prices were increased by up to 25%."

He added, "If we do not increase fuel prices, pressure on the treasury increases, and with the upcoming budget, it is not easy to manage. So, we have increased it only as much as necessary. This has no relation with the IMF."

Asked whether inflation will rise, he said it may or may not increase. "The recent increase in fuel prices is temporary and not significant. Fuel has a small share in the inflation basket."

He further said representatives from the IMF, World Bank, ADB, Infrastructure Bank, and IDB will visit Bangladesh. "All of them want to work with the current government."

He added that their policies align with the government's election manifesto, so they are interested and supportive of cooperation.

Khosru also said that the presidents of the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank will visit Bangladesh.

World Bank launches new strategy to help small states tackle challenges
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

The World Bank on Friday unveiled a new strategy aimed at helping small island states and other ​small countries better address unique challenges such as remoteness, exposure to shocks and a narrow economic base by ‌focusing firmly on jobs.

World Bank President Ajay Banga discussed the initiative at a closed-door gathering of ministers and central bank governors from 50 small countries held during the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

He said the concept was aimed at using differentiated tools to help small ​states attract more private investment, carry out policy and regulatory reforms to make it easier for businesses to operate ​and grow, and ultimately create more jobs.

It will focus on areas such as health, affordable energy, resilient ⁠infrastructure and micro- and small businesses where Bank officials see the greatest opportunities to boost growth, strengthen businesses, and create more and better jobs.

The World Bank Group last year approved a record $3.3 billion in new commitments and guarantees for small states, which face unique economic challenges and are disproportionately affected by shocks, as seen during the war in the Middle East.

"For small businesses, a single hurricane, a sudden surge in imported fuel prices, or a downturn in tourism can undo months of investment and income in a matter of days," the bank said in a blog released with the new strategy.

Banga said the Bank will take a differentiated approach to shape the regional projects it pursues in such countries, and partnerships would be a big component.

"This is not a one-size-fits-all approach. Small states are diverse, and our support will ‌reflect that," ⁠Banga told the finance officials. "We also know the economics are different."

He noted that working in small states costs up to four times more than in larger countries, so the Bank planned to streamline delivery of its services, use more flexible financing and scale solutions to make the most of each dollar.

Some projects are already underway.

In Tonga, for example, the bank will co-finance an urban resilience project with the Asian Development Bank under a mutual reliance ⁠framework agreement, a first-of-its-kind agreement between multilateral development banks.

Banga said more such agreements were planned, including one with the Inter-American Development Bank to expand the approach to the Caribbean. The World Bank was also expanding the tools available to countries, he said.

Better diagnostics were also important, the bank said. ⁠Deeper reports studying the constraints to private-sector–led hiring were underway for Barbados, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mauritius, Samoa, and Seychelles.

The World Bank could also leverage its power to help drive investments, the blog noted.

For instance, the International Finance Corp, the bank's investment arm, helped fund ⁠development of Botswana's first utility-scale solar project, while the World Bank worked on a parallel project on battery storage to enable the integration of solar projects into the grid.

"The result is not only a solar plant, but a replicable model for how unlocking private finance can open markets and create jobs," the bank said in its blog.

How defaults and delayed justice trap bond investors
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Bangladesh's bond investors are caught in a prolonged limbo, facing stalled coupon payments and expired tenures without redemption, while recovery efforts often drag on for years, typically starting only after the issuers collapse.

The crisis has exposed weak enforcement, delayed legal action and regulatory blind spots, eroding confidence in what was once promoted as a safer investment alternative.

Corporate bonds were marketed as a middle ground between volatile equities and low-yield bank deposits – offering predictable coupons, fixed maturities and asset-backed security. Mutual funds, banks, state-owned institutions and other institutional investors poured money into these instruments on the assumption that risks were limited and well regulated.

That assumption has increasingly proved misplaced.

One of the most telling cases is Regent Spinning Mills, a concern of the now-defunct Chattogram-based Habib Group. In 2015, Regent raised Tk200 crore through a five-year corporate bond to finance expansion. The bond matured in 2020, but investors, including RACE Asset Management and trustee Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB), are still struggling to recover their funds.

Although Regent was formally declared in default in June 2020, legal action to recover the money was initiated only in August 2024. By then, the Habib Group had unravelled: factories were shuttered, Regent Airways grounded and key directors had fled the country amid multiple cases and arrest warrants.

A similar pattern is emerging in Beximco's Green Sukuk Al Istisna'a, where 94% of the five-year sukuk remains unpaid even as its maturity approaches in December 2026. The trustee has proposed extending the tenure by another five years, effectively locking investors in for a decade.

Earlier, a senior Beximco official, requesting anonymity, said that in light of the group's setbacks after 5 August 2024, repaying the principal by 2026 is "not possible", although a five-year extension could make full repayment feasible.

Beximco's owner, Salman F Rahman, remains in jail facing multiple cases, but the company is still paying profit instalments to Sukuk investors.

ICB is also yet to recover Tk325 crore invested in Sea Pearl Beach Resort & Spa's convertible bond, despite collateral backing and an eight-year tenure that is nearing its end.

While corporate bond failures highlight issuer weakness and sluggish trustee action, a separate – and potentially more systemic – risk has surfaced in bank-issued subordinated bonds. These instruments, though governed by similar regulations, are fundamentally different: they are designed to absorb losses in times of stress.

In practice, however, prolonged non-payment and regulatory ambiguity following bank mergers have frozen more than Tk4,000 crore of institutional funds.

Abu Ahmed, chairman of ICB and a former economics professor at Dhaka University, said bonds often appear risk-free because they are backed by collateral. "However, private corporate bonds are not always risk-free, and investors should keep this in mind," he told The Business Standard.

Failure to repay interest or principal, he added, primarily hurts institutional investors and weakens their balance sheets. "Regulators should take measures against defaulters to protect investors' interests."

Market participants said weak enforcement has prevented the bond market from maturing. Shahidul Islam, CEO of VIPB Asset Management, said delayed coupon payments and non-repayment of principal are the main reasons the market has failed to gain depth or credibility.

"The regulator approved bonds despite knowing the issuer's weak financial condition. Approving Beximco's Tk3,000 crore bond despite its default history is a regulatory failure," he said, recalling that Beximco's debentures in the 1990s had also defaulted.

Shahidul argued that poor financial disclosure is another major constraint. "Without credible financial reporting, it is impossible to assess an institution's real condition. Regulators must be stricter so reports reflect reality," he said, adding that only financially transparent institutions should be allowed to issue bonds.

Market growth, hidden risks

According to the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), the current commission – reformed after the change of government in August 2024 – has allowed 24 firms, including banks, to raise Tk14,000 crore to meet regulatory capital requirements and for business expansion.

Before that, the previous commission had approved around Tk41,000 crore in bond fundraising. At present, 16 bonds are listed on the stock exchange, with a combined market capitalisation of Tk3,334 crore as of June 2025.

Of the Tk41,000 crore approved, the banking sector accounted for the largest share at Tk27,350 crore, followed by manufacturing with Tk6,600 crore. Financial institutions were approved to raise Tk2,100 crore, while NGOs received approval for Tk2,000 crore, with Green Sukuk bonds alone amounting to Tk3,000 crore.

BSEC data also show that City Sugar Mill, Akij Food and Beverage, CDIP, Sajida Foundation, Mir Akhter Hossain Limited, Runner Auto, Pran Agro and Envoy Textile have raised funds from the capital market through bonds.

Yet despite widespread defaults in coupon and principal repayments, there is currently no comprehensive database of defaulters at the regulator's end.

Ahsan H Mansur, the previous governor of Bangladesh Bank, at a seminar on 28 January said lack of investor confidence remains the biggest obstacle to developing Bangladesh's corporate bond market, and restoring trust requires strict regulatory action against issuers who fail to honour coupon payments.

Without restoring investor trust, any attempt to deepen the bond market would be futile, he said, pointing out that weak enforcement of rules has badly damaged confidence, particularly in cases where issuers have failed to pay bond coupons without facing consequences.

In developed markets, he said, even a single missed coupon payment is treated as a serious default that triggers regulatory action and reputational damage. "But in our country, there is hardly any consequence if a company fails to pay bond coupons. No one seems to care."

Regulator shifts responsibility to trustees

BSEC spokesperson Abul Kalam told TBS that if any bond issuer defaults, meaning it fails to make coupon payments or repay the principal, the trustee must inform the commission.

"The trustee is responsible for overseeing whether coupon payments and principal redemptions are being made properly. If any legal proceedings or liquidation become necessary, the trustee will notify the commission, and the commission will then take necessary actions," he said.

Asked specifically about the Regent Spinning Mills default, Abul Kalam said, "It is the trustee's responsibility to take initiative. If any assistance is required, the commission will take action and provide support in accordance with the law."

He added, "At present, the commission has taken an initiative to create a database of bond defaulters, similar to the CIB database."

Regent Spinning fallout

Regent Spinning floated a Tk200 crore corporate bond in 2015, approved by the BSEC in May that year. ICB was appointed as trustee. Several institutional investors, including ICB itself and RACE, invested.

RACE allocated Tk150 crore, or 75% of the total bond amount. In June 2020, the trustee identified Regent as a defaulter. Investors stopped receiving coupons, and RACE was required to make accounting provisions against the investment.

In a written comment to TBS, Regent said it was a core subsidiary of Habib Group, which once ranked among Bangladesh's most influential conglomerates.

"In the initial years following the bond issuance, the group maintained its financial obligations and paid out coupons to investors regularly. However, the conglomerate eventually suffered a historic financial collapse that extended far beyond a single bond default," the company said.

The fallout was severe, with Regent Airways grounded, factories shut and top directors fleeing the country to avoid legal cases and arrest warrants.

"Today, many of the remaining assets of the Habib Group are subject to court-ordered liquidation processes as part of the effort to settle outstanding debts with various creditors and bondholders," the company said.

Despite being declared in default in June 2020, ICB only filed a recovery suit in August 2024, four years later. By then, the issuer's financial position had deteriorated sharply.

Seeking anonymity, an ICB trustee division official said, "To protect the investors' funds poured into the bond, ICB initiated legal proceedings and filed a suit, which is pending in court."

Sea Pearl convertible bond

In 2017, Sea Pearl raised Tk325 crore through a 20% convertible bond, fully subscribed by ICB. The bond was backed by mortgages on hotel properties and equipment and was issued to repay debts and complete the Sea Pearl Beach Resort & Spa in Cox's Bazar.

It had an eight-year tenure, including a two-year moratorium, and carried a 10% coupon. Green Delta Insurance was the trustee.

After the moratorium, repayments were to begin in April 2020. But citing the pandemic's impact, the company failed to pay and repeatedly sought waivers.

Managing Director Md Aminul Islam did not respond to calls.

Subordinated bonds: Money stuck

In the banking sector, Tk4,010 crore in subordinated bonds issued by four Shariah-based banks – Exim Bank, Social Islami Bank, Union Bank and First Security Islami Bank – remain effectively frozen following mergers and restructuring.

Exim Bank alone accounts for Tk1,890 crore.

Bangladesh Bank spokesperson Arif Hossain Khan said investors would "eventually" receive their principal, though he acknowledged it could take time – offering little clarity on timelines or interim compensation.

BanglaBiz to become single investment portal after 2030: Bida
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

All investment-related services in Bangladesh will be brought under a single digital platform called BanglaBiz after 2030, a senior Bida official said yesterday at a memorandum of understanding signing ceremony with five private banks at Bida Bhaban.

Jibon Krishna Saha Roy, director general (investment promotion) of the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (Bida), said, "We are calling it the Bangladesh Investment Portal. After 2030, there will be no separate portal – only one platform, BanglaBiz."

He said existing one-stop service (OSS) portals will be gradually integrated into the platform.

Bida, in partnership with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica), also unveiled new features of BanglaBiz. The first version was launched on 28 September 2025 as an information portal linking OSS systems of Bida, Beza, Bepza, BHTPA and BSCIC.

Bida executive member Air Commodore Md Shaharul Huda said BanglaBiz is not limited to Bida. "OSS of all investment-related authorities will be connected to this platform. Services already integrated into Bida's OSS will also be transferred soon," he said.

He added that Bida is continuously upgrading the OSS system to ensure faster and more modern services for investors.

The five banks joining the initiative are NCC Bank PLC, One Bank PLC, United Commercial Bank PLC, Shimanto Bank PLC and Al-Arafah Islami Bank PLC.

Under the agreement, investors will be able to open bank accounts online through the OSS portal, including temporary accounts for foreign investors.

Bida said its OSS platform currently offers 142 services and is integrated with 47 agencies. So far, more than 215,000 applications have been processed.

The authority has signed 68 MoUs with service providers and plans to expand OSS coverage to over 150 services across 60 institutions.

It is also working to develop BanglaBiz as a unified digital platform based on a "one-time information" principle for investors.

Energy-saving LED tubes, electrical accessories drive BD Lamps' sales growth
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Bangladesh Lamps, widely known as BD Lamps, posted more than 11% year-on-year revenue growth in the first nine months of the current fiscal year, driven by higher sales of energy-saving LED tube lights and electrical accessories, according to its quarterly financials as of March.

Despite the rise in revenue, the company reported a loss of Tk87 lakh for the July-March period, with a loss per share of Tk0.83 – a sharp improvement from the same period a year earlier, when it incurred a loss of Tk5.74 crore and a loss per share of Tk5.46.

The company said its earnings position improved significantly compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, "primarily driven by an 11.3% growth in revenue and an 8.9% reduction in operating expenses".

The financial statements were approved at a board meeting held on Thursday and published on the stock exchange website today (19 April).

BD Lamps reported a revenue growth of Tk153.81 crore for the nine-month period, up from Tk138.23 crore a year earlier.

According to the report, most of the revenue came from the sale of energy-saving LED bulbs, which contributed Tk56.25 crore, slightly down from Tk56.67 crore in the same period last year.

Electrical accessories generated Tk47.78 crore, marking a 40% year-on-year increase, while sales of energy-saving tube lights rose 18% to Tk43.58 crore. In contrast, revenue from electric bulbs fell to Tk6.20 crore.

 

Jan-Mar financials

In the January-March quarter, BD Lamps reported revenue of Tk51 crore, a 6% increase from Tk48.32 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.

The company posted a profit of Tk27 lakh for the quarter, with earnings per share of Tk0.26, up from a profit of Tk11 lakh and EPS of Tk0.11 a year earlier.

For the full fiscal year 2024-25, BD Lamps recorded revenue of Tk188.47 crore, compared with Tk173.29 crore in the previous year, reflecting an 8.76% growth.

However, the company said it suffered a significant loss of Tk5.88 crore in the first quarter of FY25, mainly due to the July uprising in 2024. "As a result, we could not achieve our targeted sales, which affected overall profitability," it said in its annual report.

For the year, BD Lamps posted a net loss of Tk6.55 crore, narrowing from Tk13.43 crore in the previous year.

The company also noted that a new statutory regulatory order (SRO) issued in the national budget in May 2025 increased duties from an average of 10% to 28%, further affecting profitability.

To comply with the new requirements, BD Lamps has committed to investing nearly Tk10 crore in moulds and machinery to set up in-house production facilities for plastic and metal components used in switch sockets and lighting products.

The company expects this move to reduce duties back to an average of 10%, supporting profitability in the coming years.

BD Lamps declared a 10% cash dividend for its shareholders for FY25.

16.2pc growth of remittance inflow till April 18
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Financial Express

Inflow of remittances witnessed a year-on-year growth of 16.2 percent reaching US$1,968 million in the first 18 days of April, according to the latest data of Bangladesh Bank (BB) issued today (Sunday).

Last year, during the same period, the country's remittance inflow was $1,694 million, BSS reports.

During the July to April 18, 2026 of the current fiscal year, expatriates sent remittances of $28,177 million, which was $23,479 million during the same period of the previous fiscal year.

MCCI seeks turnover tax cut to 0.3 percent to ease business burden
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

The Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) today urged the government to cut turnover tax on gross receipts to 0.3 percent from 1 percent, saying the existing regime burdens businesses and distorts the tax framework.

The chamber pointed to mismatches between tax deducted at source (TDS), taxes on gross receipts and final corporate tax liabilities, which it said raise compliance costs, strain cash flow and risk double taxation.

“To remove these distortions, tax rates across different stages need to be rationalised and aligned with business realities,” MCCI said.

The proposal was placed at a pre-budget seminar in Dhaka for fiscal year 2026-27, jointly organised by MCCI and the Economic Reporters Forum.

It also proposed setting TDS on export proceeds at 0.50 percent to improve competitiveness amid uncertain global trade conditions, adding that advance deductions erode exporters’ working capital.

At the import stage, MCCI recommended reducing tax collection at source to 3 percent from 5 percent to ease costs for raw materials and capital machinery, supporting industrial production and investment.

For domestic transactions, it suggested a flexible TDS range of 1–3 percent on supply, depending on transaction type and risk profile, and fixing TDS on packing materials at 3 percent for clarity.

The chamber also called for resolving refund complications by issuing “No TDS” certificates until refundable amounts are fully adjusted to ease cash flow and cut delays.

At the event, Kamran T Rahman, president of MCCI, said businesses face mounting pressure from high inflation, elevated interest rates and foreign exchange constraints, with small and medium enterprises hit hardest.

He urged a supportive budget to lower business costs, encourage investment and restore private sector confidence, stressing the need for coordinated policy action to stabilise the economy and sustain growth.

IMF warns of war's human impact far from Middle East
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

IMF economists warned Thursday that the war in Iran could have “very, certainly severe” consequences far outside the region – especially for energy-importing countries.

Countries in East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are among the countries most affected now -- and who could suffer the most -- outside the region, as the conflict stretches on.

Ironically, the ongoing virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas passes -- has been a windfall for some petroleum-exporting nations, like Nigeria or Algeria.

But for those that rely on imports for food, fertilizer, and energy, the elevated prices are proving worrisome.

"Oil impacted importers, particularly non-resource-rich and fragile states, face deteriorating trade balances, rising living costs and limited buffers" to absorb future shocks," warned Abebe Selassie, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director for Africa, at a press conference Thursday.

"The human consequences are almost certain to be severe," he added.

IMF economists are briefing government officials and media on their latest economic analysis as they hold their spring meetings alongside the World Bank this week in Washington.

HITTING THE MOST VULNERABLE

Sub-Saharan Africa -- which for IMF statistical purposes does not include Sudan and parts of the Horn of Africa -- could see 20 million people pushed towards hunger, an IMF report said.

For Sahel countries, where poverty is widespread, factors that are expected to drive up the cost of food include scarce, expensive fertilizer and rising transportation costs.

"Already transportation costs are very high for people in urban areas, rural areas even more so," Selassie explained. "We are already seeing quite a bit of a pinch from the crisis on people, impoverishing people -- it's making life difficult for people."

The economic effects of the crisis hit at a time when international aid is in steep decline, another source of concern for the IMF.

The aid declines aren't a temporary ebb, but are "more structural," Selassie said. "It is falling hardest on the region's most vulnerable countries -- fragile states and low-income economies -- that depend on aid, not as a supplement but as a critical source of budget financing for healthcare and food assistance."

HEAVY OIL RELIANCE

Further afield, small Pacific islands are of great concern, said the IMF's Asia-Pacific Director Krishna Srinivasan, due to their heavy reliance energy imports and the amount of time it takes ships to reach them -- even when shipping disruptions are minimal.

Zooming out, the entire region -- not just small islands -- faces unique risks because it spends almost double what Europe does on oil and gas, as a percent of GDP.

Some countries, such as Malaysia and Thailand spend around 10 percent of their GDP on oil and gas -- a sign of how reliant they are on energy imports.

DOWNGRADES LIKE 2008

None of this is to downplay the effects in the Middle East, where the IMF's regional director, Jihad Azour, told reporters that their updated estimates of economic activity are "among the largest six-month downgrades to regional growth projections we have made since the global financial crisis."

Markets are now demanding higher interest rates across the board, further driving up the cost of borrowing for countries in the region that were already facing difficulties.

Here again, food is a pressure issue, especially in the region's poorest.

"Food items already account for 45 to 50 percent of total imports in Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and more than half of their population are already experiencing food insecurity," Azour said.

So what's to be done?

IMF officials have repeated the same mantra all week: governments should adopt only temporary, limited measures to avoid further stretching already thin budgets.

Food, transport, trade costs set to spike
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Financial Express

Food production, trade and transportation costs may increase further on fuel-price hike by Tk 15-20 per litre in Bangladesh amid an exigent global crunch.
Bangladesh uses about 4.35 million tonnes of diesel annually, and around 24 per cent of it is used in agriculture. About 80 per cent of irrigation depends on this fuel oil. It is also needed for land preparation, harvesting, threshing, and transporting crops.
On Saturday, the government increased diesel price from Tk 100 to Tk 115 per litre, octane Tk 140, up from Tk 120, petrol Tk 135, up from Tk 116, and kerosene Tk 130 in a rise from Tk 112.
Economists, agriculturists and businesspeople are concerned about domino effect of the fuel-price rises across a spectrum of economic activities, price indices and trade and transport.
Agro economists say farmers may have to spend around Tk 18 billion more per year on diesel for farming.
"This will create pressure in two ways. First, higher production costs will make it harder for farmers to get fair prices. Second, food prices on the market may go up, increasing the cost of living, especially for low-income people," says former Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) executive chairman Dr Wais Kabir.
He says Boro is now being harvested, so irrigation needs are lower. "However, costs for harvesting, threshing, and transport will increase due to higher fuel prices."
He notes that fuel-price hikes affect all sectors and will increase farmers' costs significantly, which may lead to higher rice prices.
Agricultural economist Prof Dr Rashidul Hasan says farmers are worried about reduced profits. Paddy prices are already low due to imports from India, and farmers are unsure about getting good prices for Boro.
"The fuel-price hike has made the situation worse."
Data show about 55 per cent of the country's rice comes from Boro cropping which depends fully on irrigation.
There are around 1.9 million agricultural machines in the country in the process of mechanization of agriculture, about 75 per cent of which run on diesel.
Prof Hasan feels ensuring diesel supply and providing subsidies are important to support farmers.
Group Director of TK Group Mohammad Mostafa Haider says the impact of fuel-price hikes on product prices cannot be measured immediately.Bangladesh market report
He notes that global oil-and raw-material prices have already increased, along with transport costs.
As such, the businessman says, many product prices have already been adjusted. However, he believes transport fares should not increase again if fuel supply improves, as fares already went up earlier due to shortages.
And, in the meantime, transporters and the government authority concerned were in a meeting on Sunday night with a proposal on the table for bus-fare hike, too.
Recent data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh and the Department of Agricultural Marketing show prices of vegetables, edible oils, fish, and poultry on an upturn over the past two weeks.
Traders say truck and pickup-van fares for goods have already increased 15-20 per cent due to fuel shortages in many places.
Meanwhile, the fuel price hike has affected the transport sector as a whole.
The Fare Adjustment Committee under the Bangladesh Road Transport Authority met to discuss new bus fares for city and long routes on Sunday evening. The meeting ended inconclusively. The meeting discussed an increase of Tk 0.22 in fare per kilometre. However, the meeting resumes today.
Although buses charged regular fares on the first day, operators demanded fare increases to make up for higher fuel costs and earlier losses during the fuel crisis.
Some ride-sharing services also charged up to 50-percent higher fares on Sunday, citing fuel shortages and higher costs.
However, the Passenger Welfare Association of Bangladesh opposes fare hikes without fair representation of commuters in the decision-making process. They say fare decisions were previously "influenced by interest groups".
Water-transport operators have also demanded a 36-42-percent increase in launch fares, saying that their operating costs have risen sharply.
Currently, bus fares are Tk 2.12 per km for long-haul run and Tk 2.42 for city routes. Launch fares may also increase if the proposals get through.
Commuters have expressed concern about possible fare hikes, though many say they paid normal fares on the first day after the fuel-price increase.
Transport owners' leaders say fare adjustment is necessary after the fuel-price hike, while commuters argue that fares were not properly reduced when fuel prices fell in 2024.
Leaders of the country's apparel sector Sunday demanded uninterrupted supply of fuels amid the price hike and adjustment of the rate on a regular basis.
Economists term the decision 'good', suggesting regular price adjustment in line with global price indices.
Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) president Mahmud Hasan Khan, in an immediate reaction, says, "So far I know, the government has raised the fuel prices in line the understanding with the IMF."
He says the price must be adjusted on a regular monthly basis according to the global price indices, adding that 'adjustment means not only to raise the price but also reduce when global prices fall."
He, however, stresses that factories should get the fuel uninterruptedly as price hike will surely increase the production cost which for many reasons is on the rise.
Citing a rise in global market rates, the government Saturday increased fuel-oil prices at the retail level by Tk 15 to Tk 20 per litre.
Under the new pricing structure, diesel has been fixed at Tk 115 per litre, octane at Tk 140, petrol at Tk 135, and kerosene at Tk 130 per litre.
Talking to The Financial Express, Khan Monirul Alam, Managing Director of Fashion.Com, says his factory located at Ashulia faces five to six hours of load shedding daily.
To run two factories-medium in size--he needs 1200-litre diesel daily to operate generators during the electricity outage.
Due to the 15-percent hike in diesel prices, he will have to bear an additional financial cost of Tk 0.4 million to Tk 0.5 million monthly.
"As the generators are for backup supports and they also have a limited capacity, the machines are overheated, posing risk of possible accident," he says explaining the current situation.
Mr Alam says majority of the factories in the export industry have generators as alternative supports.
Echoing the BGMEA leader, Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) president Mohammad Hatem says there is no denying the fact that production cost will increase. "But the main problem is that we are not getting fuel."
"Last government increased prices of gas several times but we did not get the adequate supply of gas," he laments.
Talking to the FE, Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM) director-general Dr Md Ezazul Islam says the latest fuel-price hike will fuel the inflation rate which has been on the higher side.
If the government does not raise the prices of fuel, it has to subsidize, which will put a negative impact on revenue policy, he says about a double bind.
Terming the raise 'good', he says the government also needs to adjust the fuel prices every month with the international market trends-reducing the rate when prices go down globally.
Distinguished fellow of CPD Prof Mustafizur Rahman says the price hike is made at a time when the government has to buy fuels at high rates amid uncertainties.
"It would affect most the direct users like transport, manufacturing and consumers," he says, adding that the government has to monitor the market strictly so that bus fare and other transportation price do not rise disproportionately but reasonably.
He also suggests strengthening the social-safety net to help low-and fixed-income groups who are already under pressure due to higher inflation.
Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood and State Minister Aninda Islam Amit met Prime Minister Tarique Rahman at the Secretariat on Sunday and briefed him on the country's fuel situation.
"They met the Prime Minister at his office at the Secretariat and informed him of the latest fuel situation," said Prime Minister's Additional Press Secretary Atikur Rahman Rumon.
After the meeting, the Energy Minister told waiting journalists that the government had no alternative but to hike the prices as fuel imports require foreign currency, and the adjustment was necessary to keep the situation at a tolerable level.

Dollar falls to multi-week lows
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

The safe-haven US dollar dropped ​to multi-week lows on Friday as risk appetite soared after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is open, boosting optimism that the Middle East ‌conflict is winding down.

In afternoon trading, the dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.3 percent to 97.96 after earlier ​dropping to 97.632, its lowest in seven weeks.The index was down 0.6 percent on the week, set for a second straight weekly decline. Over the past two weeks, ​it has fallen about 2.1 percent, its largest two-week drop since late January.

“The dollar’s weakness is mainly about the market unwinding the geopolitical risk premium,” said George Vessey, lead FX and macro strategist at Convera in London. “I don’t think we are pricing in a fundamentally weaker US dollar because there are question marks around the Federal Reserve, what’s the Fed’s next move ​is going to be after inflation came out hotter than expected.

So the economy is still somewhat resilient so it’s not going to be the start ​of a full structural dollar decline.”

BOJ LIKELY TO HOLD RATES THROUGH JUNE

Against the Japanese yen , the dollar slid 0.6 percent to 158.22 after earlier climbing to 159.86. It was on track ‌to post ⁠its largest weekly drop in nine weeks.

Loss of energy output in MidEast will take about two years to recover, IEA says
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Daily Star

It will take about two years to recover the energy ​output lost in the Middle East from the ‌conflict there, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, was quoted as saying on Friday in an interview with ​the Neue Zuercher Zeitung newspaper.

"That will vary ​from country to country. In Iraq, for example, ⁠it will take much longer than in Saudi Arabia. ​However, we estimate it will take approximately two years ​overall to reach pre-war levels again," Birol told the Swiss newspaper.

Birol added that the market was underestimating the consequences of a ​prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipments of oil ​and gas that were already en route to their destinations before ‌the ⁠war in Iran began have now arrived, mitigating the impact of shortages, he said.

"But no new tankers were loaded in March. There were no new deliveries of ​oil, gas ​or fuels to ⁠Asian markets. This gap is now becoming apparent. If the Strait of Hormuz ​is not reopened, we must prepare for ​significantly higher ⁠energy prices."

Asked whether the IEA could carry out another release of emergency oil reserves after its March move, ⁠Birol ​said the agency was ready to ​act immediately and decisively.

"We're not there yet, but it's definitely under ​consideration," Birol said.

Metropolitan Chamber seeks supportive, growth-oriented budget
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) President Kamran T Rahman today (19 April) called for a "supportive and growth-oriented" national budget for fiscal year 2026-27, warning that businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, are under severe strain from high inflation, sluggish investment, elevated interest rates and foreign exchange pressure.

Speaking at a seminar of MCCI and the Economic Reporters' Forum (ERF) on budget priorities, he said the upcoming budget must be balanced and realistic, arguing that a sensible tax policy can simultaneously boost revenue, encourage investment and generate employment rather than punish businesses further.

Kamran proposed full integration of the National Identity (NID) and Tax Identification Number (TIN) databases to expand the tax net, noting that though over one crore taxpayers hold TINs, fewer than half file returns.

He also recommended introducing a symbolic minimum tax to bring new taxpayers into the fold and simplifying return filing through mobile applications.

The MCCI chief urged the government to reconsider conditions tied to corporate tax benefits, especially restrictions on cash transactions.

He further suggested cutting tax rates for both listed and non-listed companies by an additional 2.5% to stimulate investment.

Kamran proposed a unified taxpayer profile covering income tax, VAT and customs to reduce administrative complexity and harassment, along with online hearings and digital notices to cut time and cost for businesses.

On VAT and customs, he urged simpler procedures, transaction-based valuation, stronger automation, and allowing quantity disclosure instead of value in some VAT forms to protect confidentiality.

The MCCI President called for special policy support for SMEs, including separate tax treatment, input tax credit facilities and reduced duty and VAT on raw materials.

Comprehensive reform roadmap presented

Md Shahadat Hossain, former President of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Bangladesh, presented policy recommendations in a paper titled "National Budget 2026–2027: Private Sector Priorities & Perspectives," outlining reforms in corporate tax, VAT, customs and capital markets.

He said the budget should go beyond revenue and spending to serve as a broader policy framework for growth, investment, jobs and inflation control.

Shahadat flagged Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio hovering between 6.5% and 7.3% in FY2024-25 as among the lowest globally, well below the 15% threshold considered necessary for sustainable development.

Bangladesh in its own Strait: Caught between war and policy paralysis
20 Apr 2026;
Source: The Business Standard

The World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings ended with more questions than answers for Bangladesh. There was no firm signal on the size or timing of external financing, no breakthrough on the stalled IMF programme, and no assurance that the expected $3.2 billion in budget support from the World Bank, ADB, AIIB, and Japan can be mobilised within the government's timeline. At a moment when tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are already unsettling global energy and freight markets, this ambiguity could not have come at a worse time.

Yet the government's post-Meeting narrative has been one of calm continuity. Officials insist the IMF programme is not off the table and that external financing will materialise once routine discussions conclude in the coming months. This confidence, however, sits uneasily alongside the fiscal choices now on the table: a record Tk9.3 trillion budget built on an ambitious revenue target that keeps the deficit deceptively modest as a share of GDP. The implicit message is that adjustment can wait – even as the global environment grows more hostile.

That assumption is increasingly difficult to sustain. Bangladesh sits at the wrong end of every transmission channel emanating from the Strait of Hormuz. Even a partial disruption pushes up oil prices, inflating the import bill and expanding subsidy requirements. Disruptions to Saudi and Qatari urea shipments raise fertilizer costs and threaten agricultural cycles. War-risk premiums on Gulf shipping routes increase freight costs for an import-dependent manufacturing base. Each additional dollar spent on fuel, fertiliser, and freight becomes a direct drawdown on already strained foreign exchange reserves.

Crucially, these pressures are not temporary. Even if the conflict were to de-escalate quickly, the lagged effects on prices, supply chains, and risk premiums are likely to persist for months. This is a shock that compounds over time – and it is arriving just as Bangladesh's policy credibility is beginning to fray.

The deeper problem is that the pressure is no longer one-sided. Bangladesh today finds itself caught between a shock it cannot control and policies it has been slow to adjust. The global environment is tightening from one end; policy inertia is tightening from the other. The result is a narrowing policy space – an economy squeezed from both directions.

This is why the stalled IMF programme matters far beyond its immediate financing value. Without an active IMF programme, Bangladesh loses more than access to disbursements – it loses its credibility anchor. And without that anchor, budget support from other multilaterals becomes harder to unlock, with IMF endorsement now effectively the gatekeeper of macroeconomic confidence. If these flows do not materialise, the consequences are immediate: a wider external financing gap, sharper import compression, rising inflation, and further pressure on reserves.

It is also important to recognise the constraints under which the current government is operating. Barely two months into office, it has been forced to navigate a fragile macroeconomic landscape while confronting a global shock that intensified within days of assuming power. Under such conditions, delays in advancing reforms are understandable.

What is harder to justify, however, is not inertia but reversal. The issue is not that reforms have yet to move forward – it is that some have not yet moved backward. The reintroduction of discretion in petroleum pricing, renewed exchange-rate management despite commitments to a market-based regime, and amendments to the bank resolution framework that reopen the door to previously discredited owners all signal a retreat from earlier reform commitments. Meanwhile, larger structural measures – particularly in tax and financial sector reform – remain stalled.

This mix of reversal and inertia creates a credibility problem at precisely the wrong moment. Backtracking signals unreliability; delays signal a lack of urgency. Together, they raise doubts about the government's willingness to adjust, keeping external financing on hold while the global shock intensifies.

The adjustment path itself is not complicated – but it is politically difficult. It begins with restoring exchange-rate credibility, because without that, reserves cannot be rebuilt and external balances cannot stabilise. It requires aligning interest-rate policy with genuine monetary tightening to contain inflation. It demands a shift in fiscal policy from expansionary optimism to targeted consolidation – anchored in realistic revenue expectations, rationalised subsidies, and prioritised expenditure. And it necessitates moving forward on long-delayed structural reforms, from tax administration and banking sector cleanup to energy pricing, port management, and state-owned enterprise governance.

Ultimately, macroeconomic adjustment is never neutral. When policy delays persist, the burden does not disappear – it shifts. Import compression translates into raw-material shortages for industry. A defended exchange rate erodes export competitiveness while diverting remittances into informal channels. Delayed energy pricing reforms inflate subsidies, crowding out social spending. In the absence of timely policy action, adjustment takes place through even higher inflation, stricter and more chaotic rationing, and slower growth – mechanisms that disproportionately affect those least able to absorb the shock.

Bangladesh is now operating in a dangerously exposed position: caught between a volatile global environment, a stalled IMF programme, and a fiscal stance that assumes the storm will pass. But the world is tightening, not easing. External conditions are becoming less forgiving, not more.

The government may have had limited time – but the direction of travel is already visible.

The war delivered the shock, but the distribution of pain is being decided at home. Without timely and credible reforms, the burden of adjustment will not be shared evenly – it will cascade downward, onto households, workers, and small businesses. That is the real cost of delay: not just macroeconomic strain, but a quieter, more unequal adjustment that unfolds as policy continues to look the other way.