Governments scrambled to limit the impact on economies and consumers from the widening Iran war, which fuelled a record surge in oil prices on Monday after key producers cut output and Tehran signalled that hardliners would remain in charge.

In a sign of mounting governmental concern over supply disruptions, the Group of Seven finance ministers will discuss the possibility of a joint release of emergency oil reserves in a meeting on Monday, a French government source said.

In South Korea, which buys 70% of its oil from the Middle East, President Lee Jae Myung said Seoul would cap fuel prices for the first time in nearly 30 years and he warned against panic buying.

Speaking at an emergency meeting, Lee called the crisis "a significant burden on our economy, which is highly dependent on global trade and energy imports from the Middle East."

A senior Japanese member of Parliament on Sunday said the government had instructed a national oil reserve storage site to prepare for a possible crude release, although the country's chief cabinet secretary later said no decision had been made to release stockpiles.

Japan imports around 95% of its oil from the Middle East. It has reserves to cover 354 days of consumption.

Elsewhere, Vietnam removed import tariffs on fuels and Bangladesh shut universities to conserve electricity and fuel, while China last week asked refiners to halt fuel exports and try to cancel shipments that were already committed.

Trump downplays US price surge

President Donald Trump tried to downplay concerns about rising US gasoline prices, which were up 11% for the week on Friday, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called on him to sell oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

"Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for USA, and World, Safety and Peace," Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday night. "ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!"

Oil jumped 25%, with Brent on track for a record one-day gain, while OPEC producers Kuwait and Iraq cut output over the weekend as the crucial Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut.

Brent jumps 25% on supply fears

Across Asia, which sources 60% of its oil from the Middle East, equities slid and the dollar rose as worries grew that the disruption in energy supplies could be prolonged.

Iran on Monday named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, a move that is expected to draw Trump's ire. Weekend attacks on Iranian oil storage facilities fuelled fears of retaliatory strikes on energy facilities.

In Bahrain, Bapco Energies declared force majeure on Monday following an attack on its refinery complex, the company said.

"Oil prices have now gathered all the ingredients for a perfect storm - Middle East Gulf producers cutting output, the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz ... all compounded by a growing pessimism about a quick turnaround in the current situation," said Kpler senior oil analyst Muyu Xu.

Iraq cut oil production at its main southern oilfields by 70% to 1.3 million barrels per day, three industry sources said on Sunday, while Kuwait Petroleum Corp began cutting oil output on Saturday and declared force majeure.

No. 2 LNG exporter Qatar has already halted exports of the superchilled fuel and analysts predict that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will also have to cut output soon as they run out of oil storage due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.

When tensions escalate among global and regional powers, the shockwaves ripple through oil markets, shipping lanes, labour migration routes, and financial systems, reaching economies thousands of kilometres away.

The US-Israel war on Iran is rapidly emerging as one of the most significant geopolitical crises for the global economy in recent years, sending tremors through markets and supply chains.

Although the fighting is roughly 4,000 kilometres from Bangladesh, economists say the impact could be substantial for a nation heavily reliant on imported fuel and remittances from workers in the Middle East.

According to economists, the crisis due to the war risks setting off a chain reaction: rising energy prices, disrupted trade flows, weakened export competitiveness, turmoil in the migrant labour market and remittance inflows, higher inflation, and renewed pressure on foreign exchange reserves amid a constrained fiscal space.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka office, said Bangladesh’s economic exposure could unfold through three channels: energy, the dollar, and trade and finance.

He compared the potential shock of the war to an earthquake rather than a passing storm.

A storm passes temporarily, Hussain said. “Water rises and then recedes. Some damage happens, but the situation stabilises. But an earthquake damages the underlying infrastructure, affecting both life and property.”

The economist said the scale of the impact will depend on both the intensity and duration of the war.

“The key question is not only the magnitude of the shock, but also how long it lasts. The longer it continues, the greater the damage,” he said.

ENERGY SHOCK LOOMS

The most immediate and potentially severe impact of the Iran war is on global oil markets, with the price surging to $119 as of yesterday compared to around $72 per barrel a year ago.

The Gulf region sits at the heart of the world’s energy supply chain.

Following last week’s US and Israel’s attack on Iran, Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route, seriously disrupting cargo transport between the Middle East and Bangladesh.

Major shipping lines have suspended cargo bookings between the Indian subcontinent, including Bangladesh, and the Gulf.

For Bangladesh, the consequences could be painful.

The country imports almost all its fuel -- from crude oil to refined petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG). A spike in oil prices would immediately inflate the country’s energy import bill.

Long queues have already appeared at fuel stations across the country as panic buying spreads, while the government has closed universities and introduced fuel rationing to cushion the fallout.

Higher fuel prices would also increase costs for electricity generation, transportation, and industrial production.

In that case, the government, already struggling to manage energy subsidies, would face difficult choices: absorb the cost through larger subsidies or pass it on to consumers through higher fuel and power prices.

Both carry economic consequences, such as rising subsidies straining public finances, while higher domestic energy prices push up living costs and production expenses.

INFLATION COULD GO WILD, AGAIN

Energy shocks rarely stay confined to the power sector; instead, they ripple through the entire economy.

Bangladesh has been struggling with stubbornly high inflation for around three years. Inflation was above the 9 percent mark from March 2023, easing slightly in 2025, and showing a resurgence recently.

The drivers for renewed price pressure include high food prices, currency depreciation, and rising import costs.

A further rise in global oil prices would amplify these pressures by raising transport and logistics costs across supply chains.

Higher fuel costs affect everything from agricultural irrigation to the distribution of essential commodities, potentially pushing food inflation higher and squeezing household purchasing power.

This dynamic could leave the economy facing elevated inflation alongside slowing growth.

After months of easing, headline inflation reached a 10-month high in February due mainly to rising food prices, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

FOREIGN EXCHANGE UNDER STRAIN

Energy imports are one of Bangladesh’s largest sources of foreign currency outflows. A prolonged rise in oil prices would add pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Bangladesh has previously faced periods of reserve stress due to high import bills and currency volatility. Another energy shock could widen the current account deficit, increasing the cost of fuel imports.

As demand for dollars rises, the Bangladeshi taka may face renewed depreciation, further raising the domestic price of imported goods and reinforcing inflation.

REMITTANCE RISKS

Bangladesh’s large migrant workforce in the Middle East is another vulnerability. Since fiscal year 2025, around 86 lakh Bangladeshi workers have gone abroad for jobs, with Saudi Arabia employing nearly half.

Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, account for around 75 percent of overseas employment, according to the Bangladesh Economic Review 2025.

If the conflict escalates, economic activity in the Gulf could slow, threatening employment for migrant workers and reducing remittance inflows.

Even a moderate slowdown would put additional pressure on Bangladesh’s external balance, as remittances play a crucial role in offsetting the country’s large import bill.

The war could also disrupt global trade routes. During geopolitical tension, shipping companies often raise insurance premiums, and freight rates increase if vessels reroute to avoid conflict zones.

For Bangladesh’s export-oriented industries, particularly the ready-made garment sector, higher logistics costs could reduce competitiveness. Importers would also face higher charges for essential commodities, machinery, and industrial inputs, feeding through into domestic prices.

Bangladesh’s energy system remains fragile. Power generation depends heavily on imported fuels and LNG.

Tight global gas markets or surging LNG prices could make affordable supply difficult, leading to potential power shortages or higher generation costs. Such disruptions could affect industrial production, especially in energy-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and textiles.

“The first risk is energy, both in terms of price increases and availability,” said economist Hussain.

“Even if you are willing to pay a higher price, you may not be able to secure supply. If energy supply is disrupted, the real economy, agriculture, industry and services, comes under risk,” he added.

The economist also warned of mounting pressure on the US dollar. “As global uncertainty rises, the dollar strengthens and our import bill increases,” Hussain said.

“Even if the volume of imports does not rise, the total bill will increase, meaning we will have to spend more local currency to buy the same amount of dollars. That will further fuel inflation.”

A stronger dollar could complicate external payments.

“When dollars become scarce, settlement of outstanding payments becomes difficult, and payment obligations start to accumulate,” he said, adding that this could create pressure on banks’ balance sheets and the government budget.

The third channel is trade and financial flows, particularly higher logistics costs.

“Freight charges, port costs and insurance premiums are already rising, which increases payments under the services account of the balance of payments,” Hussain said. “Individually, these costs may seem small, but collectively they create significant pressure.”

He also flagged risks to remittance flows.

“There are two risks for remittances. First, employment and wage risks for migrant workers if the conflict spreads, and second, possible disruptions in payment systems that could affect money transfers,” he said.

“The external balance, financial sector and energy supply are all exposed, and their combined impact will eventually affect the real economy -- growth, employment and wages,” Hussain added.

BANGLADESH NEEDS A CONTINGENCY PLAN

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said Bangladesh should prepare a contingency plan to deal with emerging risks.

“We need to think about how to use the foreign financing already in the pipeline so that pressure on foreign exchange reserves remains limited,” he said. Once these funds arrive, they could add several billion dollars to reserves, easing external pressure.

Rahman also called for mobilising additional support, including budgetary assistance from institutions such as the World Bank.

“If fuel import costs surge, it will be very difficult to manage through reserves alone,” he said. “In that case, we may need financing arrangements such as import credit facilities from institutions like the Islamic Development Bank. Preparing a contingency plan in advance would be a prudent step.”

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, when asked about the potential impact of the war and whether austerity measures were being considered, did not provide a detailed response.

“We are working on this issue,” he told The Daily Star.

The government must address seven major economic challenges, including persistent inflation and energy constraints, through coordinated reforms to restore growth and strengthen economic resilience, speakers said yesterday.

Bangladesh’s economy faces multiple structural obstacles, as highlighted at the launch of a publication by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) titled “Reviving Private Sector-Led Economic Growth: Critical Issues and Priorities Facing the New Government in Bangladesh”, organised jointly with Policy Exchange Bangladesh in Dhaka yesterday.

The report identifies seven priority reform areas: macroeconomic stabilisation, fiscal management, financial sector reform, export competitiveness and diversification, revitalising private investment, energy security and skills development for employment.

Presenting the report, M Masrur Reaz said Bangladesh’s economic management requires an integrated approach as multiple structural constraints are slowing investment, exports and job creation.

He said the country entered a macroeconomic crisis in mid-2022 when inflation rose to around 13-14 percent, foreign exchange reserves dropped from nearly $48 billion to about $19 billion, and the taka depreciated sharply.

Although reserves have recovered to around $28-29 billion, major vulnerabilities remain.

Economic growth has slowed to about 3.49 percent, while the tax-GDP ratio has fallen to around 7 percent and debt servicing now accounts for roughly 21 percent of the national budget.

Private investment has declined from 24.9 percent to 22.5 percent of GDP, while foreign direct investment remains below 1 percent of GDP. Export concentration is another concern, with the readymade garment sector accounting for about 81 percent of exports.

The report recommends key reforms within the government’s first 100 days, including improving macroeconomic coordination, adopting a market-based exchange rate and launching investment climate reforms to restore investor confidence and revive growth.

Hossain Zillur Rahman, executive chairman of the Power and Participation Research Centre, said the private sector must re-establish an independent and constructive voice in national policymaking following the political transition.

He noted that during the previous long period of authoritarian governance, many private sector bodies lost their independent voice and became extensions of political processes.

Dewan Hanif Mahmud, editor of The Daily Bonik Barta, said Bangladesh should conduct forensic audits of major state-owned institutions to understand the true condition of the economy.

He stressed that forensic audits should be carried out in key state entities, including banks and energy institutions, to determine their financial health and asset quality.

Kamran T Rahman said Bangladesh’s economic recovery remains fragile despite some easing of balance of payments pressure and inflation.

He warned that LDC graduation will bring new challenges, including reduced preferential market access, tougher compliance requirements and sharper global competition.

Habibullah N Karim, vice president of MCCI, and Farooq Ahmed, secretary general and CEO of MCCI, also spoke at the event.

For four years, Bangladesh has struggled to escape the inflation spiral unleashed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a crisis that turned it into South Asia's highest-inflation economy.

Now another geopolitical shock is gathering force. On the tenth day of the US-Israel war on Iran, global oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel for the first time since that invasion, threatening to unleash yet another inflation storm on an already strained economy.

The uncomfortable irony is that the escalating war in the Middle East arrives just as a freshly elected government takes office and just as inflation had finally begun to slow.

Following a tightening monetary stance by the Bangladesh Bank, inflation had slipped below 9% – still high, but hinting that the long price surge might finally be losing momentum.

Oil soars 25%, gold drops as Iran war jolts global commodity markets

The latest data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics reveal just how uneasy the inflation landscape still is. Overall inflation climbed to 9.13% in February 2026, a ten-month high. Even more worrying, food inflation – the measure that defines everyday living costs – jumped to 9.30%, the highest in 13 months.

For ordinary households, the pain is becoming structural. Wage growth stood at 8.06%, marking the 48th consecutive month in which income growth has lagged behind inflation.

US crude oil, the front-month West Texas Intermediate futures soared 30% to hit $118.28 a barrel in Monday (9 March) trading hours, while Brent, the international benchmark, jumped more than 25% to $116.67 per barrel.

The surge comes as the escalating US-Israel war on Iran has fuelled fears of prolonged disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply, while the UAE and Kuwait have begun cutting oil production after the Strait blockage.

Inflation shoots up to 9.13% in February, highest in 10 months

For Bangladesh, such shocks rarely remain distant geopolitical headlines. Even before oil crossed $100 per barrel, panic buying gripped petrol pumps, showing that government assurances and rationing did little to calm fears.

The country imports most of its fuel and fertiliser, so global oil spikes ripple through the economy: transport costs rise, electricity becomes more expensive, fertiliser and irrigation costs climb, shipping costs increase, and eventually the pressure spreads to food markets and consumer goods. In short, global oil shocks quietly reach domestic kitchens.

Bangladesh has faced this before. The Russian invasion of Ukraine sent fuel, fertiliser, and food prices sharply higher, pushing inflation above 9% and keeping it stubbornly elevated for years. Today, the macroeconomic environment is even more fragile.

Merchandise exports fell for the seventh consecutive month in February 2026, while private credit growth dipped to a record low of 6% in January. Even the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission could not look away – its February 2026 Monthly Economic Update & Outlook report highlighted that a revenue shortfall, combined with weak mid-year Annual Development Programme (ADP) utilisation, is creating mounting fiscal challenges.

Governments scramble to limit fallout of Iran war as oil prices surge

The pressure on the taka is a particular concern. From Tk86 in February 2022 to crossing Tk100 in September 2022, it has now stood at Tk122.5 against the US dollar. With the US-Israel war on Iran driving energy costs ever higher, a further weakening of the taka could sharply push up import bills, electricity and fuel costs, and production expenses, sending the economic burden soaring across Bangladesh.

This also creates a difficult dilemma for monetary policy. With inflation already high, there is little room to loosen policy to stimulate growth. Yet tighter financial conditions risk slowing investment and employment.

Whether this becomes another full-scale inflation storm will depend largely on how long the war persists and whether global energy supply and routes stabilise. But the early signals from markets are unsettling.

Bangladesh is bracing for a storm it cannot fully control, and the coming months will test both policy resilience and the patience of ordinary citizens.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has relaxed rules allowing foreign investors to repatriate proceeds up to Tk 100 crore from sales and share transfers without prior approval.

The central bank issued a circular on Sunday, saying banks can now independently process such repatriations if the fair value of the transaction is determined by an independent valuer using approved valuation methods.

Previously, banks could approve transactions of only up to Tk 10 crore, with most cases requiring central bank permission.

The relaxed rules apply to both state-owned and private companies that are not listed on stock exchanges.

The central bank said the move aims to simplify procedures and make the country a more attractive destination for foreign direct investment.

For deals where the transaction value does not exceed the net asset value (NAV) based on the latest audited financial statements, banks can approve repatriation regardless of the amount involved.

For smaller transactions of up to Tk 1 crore, investors no longer need to provide an independent valuation report.

To ensure proper oversight, the circular instructs banks to form internal committees to verify valuation reports and approve repatriation requests.

For small transactions, the committee must be led by the chief financial officer, while deals of up to Tk 100 crore require the chief executive officer’s leadership. Members with professional qualifications, such as CFA certification, must be included.

The circular also introduces procedural improvements to speed up transfers. Banks must complete repatriation within five working days if no discrepancies are found.

The overall share transfer process must be finalised within 45 days of signing the memorandum of understanding or receiving BB approval, whichever comes later.

The escalating crisis in the Middle East has dramatically changed the outlook for Asian central banks, with the huge supply shock posing a difficult trade-off ​between underpinning growth and countering inflation.

For emerging Asian central banks, cutting interest rates has become a risky bet not just because of the added price pressure from higher ‌fuel costs, but the risk of triggering capital outflows through worsening terms of trade with the US.

The Reserve Bank of India, for one, expects to focus more on supporting growth by keeping interest rates low, sources have told Reuters. But a rush towards the safe-haven dollar, which is intensifying from the US-Iran war, may force it to ramp up intervention to prop up its weakening currency.

"We don't see a possibility of a near-term rate hike in India - we do not ​see retail fuel prices moving higher immediately," said Suvodeep Rakshit, economist at Mumbai-based Kotak Institutional Equities.

"At this stage, the immediate priority of the central bank will be what happens on FX. ​We expect them to continue intervening to curb volatility there. An afterthought will be the liquidity impact of that intervention and they will infuse liquidity ⁠as needed."

Thailand and the Philippines may be forced to reverse their dovish monetary policy stance, even as rising fuel costs hurt their economies, said Toru Nishihama, chief emerging market economist at Dai-ichi Life ​Research Institute in Tokyo.Market Research Reports

"Many central banks will face a tough decision as they come under pressure from both markets and governments," Nishihama said. "With no clear end in sight to the conflict, the risk of stagflation ​is heightening day by day."

Share markets plunged and the safe-haven US dollar rose in Asia on Monday as oil surged past $110 a barrel, stoking fears of a protracted Middle East war on global energy supplies and higher inflation that may force central banks to hike rates.

The trade-off is particularly acute for manufacturing-heavy economies like South Korea and Japan, which are dependent on global trade, stable markets and cheap raw material costs - all being undermined by the widening Middle ​East crisis.

South Korea's central bank, which kept rates steady in February, could take a more hawkish stance if inflation persistently stays a percentage point above its target, said Citigroup economist Kim Jin-wook.

"For now, ​we continue to believe BoK is unlikely to hike policy rate in response to a higher-than-expected oil price," with government steps to curb fuel prices limiting the pass through of oil moves on inflation, Kim said.

'THINK OF THE ‌UNTHINKABLE'

Developed market ⁠central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, also face a tricky act balancing growth, inflation and increasing political pressure.

The dilemma runs deep for the Bank of Japan. If crude oil prices stay at $110 for a year, that could knock 0.39 of a percentage point off growth, according to Nomura Research Institute, a huge blow to an economy with subdued potential growth of around 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent.Global Economy Insights

But unlike in the past when it could afford to pause rate hikes, the BOJ has less room now to look through price pressures with inflation having exceeded its 2 per cent target for nearly four years.

That means the BOJ will have little ​choice but to repeat its mantra of continued ​rate hikes, while staying mum on the timing ⁠of such a move that could draw the ire of an administration hostile to higher borrowing costs, analysts say.

Australia and New Zealand are typical of how economies in different cycles put policymakers in a difficult bind.

Sustained oil price hikes risk de-anchoring price expectations in Australia, where inflation is already elevated, said ​Jonathan Kearns, chief economist at Challenger who is also a former Reserve Bank of Australia official.

"If inflation expectations increase, which they obviously could in ​this period where we've had ⁠high inflation, that will mean that the Reserve Bank would need to have interest rates higher for longer in order to bring inflation back down."

New Zealand faces a different challenge as the economy has struggled to recover from the hit from past rate hikes.

"We suspect central banks, and the RBNZ in particular, may well have to tolerate higher inflation in the short run to avoid tightening into a slowing global economy," said Jarrod ⁠Kerr, chief ​economist at Kiwibank.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday a 10 per cent rise in oil prices, if persistent through ​most of the year, would result in a 40-basis-point increase in global inflation.

"We are seeing resilience tested again by the new conflict in the Middle East," Georgieva said in a symposium in Tokyo. "My advice to policymakers in this new global environment is ​think of the unthinkable and prepare for it."

Oil prices surged over $119 a barrel, hitting ‌levels not seen since mid-2022, on Monday as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions gripped the market due to the expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Brent crude futures were up $13.02, or 14%, at $105.71 per barrel at 0917 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were ​up $12.16, or 13%, at $103.06.
In a whiplash session, Brent had earlier hit a high of $119.50 a barrel, indicating the biggest-ever ​absolute price jump in a single day, and WTI reached $119.48 a barrel. Before the surge on Monday, ⁠Brent had already climbed 28% and WTI 36% over last week.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the ​world's oil and liquefied natural gas typically passes, is virtually shut. Also boosting prices is the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his ​father Ali Khamenei as Iran's supreme leader, signalling that hardliners remain firmly in charge in Tehran a week into its conflict with the United States and Israel.
The war could leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the conflict, which started on ​February. 28, ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics and elevated risks to shipping.
U.S. gasoline contracts surged to ​their highest since 2022 at around $3.22 a gallon, at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump has told U.S. consumers the impact on ‌their cost ⁠of living would be limited ahead of mid-term elections in November.
Governments can release strategic petroleum reserves to counteract supply disruptions. U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called on Trump to make such a move and a French government source said on Monday that the Group of Seven nations would discuss this also.

Bangladesh has floated tenders to buy three more liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from the spot market for April delivery in a desperate race to secure gas amid deepening turmoil in the Middle East.

State-run Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Co Ltd (RPGCL) sought delivery of the LNG cargoes in three phases between April 5 and April 13, a move that came four days after the company floated tenders to buy two cargoes of gas for March 15-16 and March 18-19 deliveries.

Bangladesh had to buy two LNG cargoes from the spot market after failing to attract bidders for two consecutive days, although at more than double the normal rate.

The move comes amid uncertainty over the timely arrival of LNG shipments from Qatar, as shipping in the Gulf remains severely disrupted after Tehran threatened to "set fire" to vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US-Israeli war with Iran continues for a tenth day.

Located between Oman and Iran, and connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, the strait is one of the world's most important oil chokepoints.

Bangladesh meets nearly 30 percent of its gas demand, equivalent to 2,650 mmcfd, through imported LNG as domestic output continues to fall short.

The country also spends roughly $1 billion per year to import more than 60 lakh tonnes of petroleum and relies heavily on the Hormuz route. It sources most petroleum from the Middle East, and more than half of LNG imports in 2025 passed through this chokepoint.

The share price of British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company (BATBC) came under significant pressure after it reported a major loss and sharply reduced its dividend, triggering a negative investor reaction and a notable fall in the stock.

Around the annual disclosure on 2 March, the company's share price dropped by nearly 21% in four consecutive trading sessions.

The sharp fall came as the company, which has long been known for paying high dividends, significantly reduced its dividend payout this year, prompting many investors to sell their holdings.

Even before declaring the dividend, its share price had fallen 7% and after the news was widely reported, selling pressure intensified further. In the trading sessions following the publication of the news, the share price declined by around 21%, reflecting investors' concerns over the company's weak earnings performance and lower dividend declaration.

The company's share price today regained 2.41% to Tk216.80 on the Dhaka stock exchange, while the premier index DSEX rose 132 points in a positive sentiment.

BATBC recommended a 30% cash dividend for 2025, sharply lower than the 300% cash dividend it distributed in 2024, reflecting a significant decline in its financial performance.

The multinational tobacco company reported a loss of Tk136 crore in the October-December quarter of 2025, indicating a sharp deterioration in earnings due to declining cigarette sales and higher operating costs.

According to the company, earnings per share (EPS) fell by 67% for the year ended 31 December 2025, mainly due to lower turnover and increased operating expenses. Costs rose amid inflationary pressure and higher levels of operational activity in certain segments of the business.

In July 2025, the company shut down its Dhaka factory and transferred plant, machinery, and cigarette manufacturing equipment to its Savar factory. The forced closure, along with relocation and restructuring costs, created a one-off negative impact of Tk715 crore on operating profit compared to the previous year.

For the full year ended December 2025, the company's EPS stood at Tk10.81, while it posted a loss per share of Tk2.53 in the fourth quarter.

The company will hold its annual general meeting on 30 April, with the record date set for 1 April to approve the financial statements and proposed dividend.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman will inaugurate the Family Card programme today (10 March) at the T&T playground in Banani, adjacent to the Korail slum, aiming to deliver economic benefits directly to citizens' doorsteps.

At a press conference on the launching programme at the Secretariat yesterday (9 March), Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury described the initiative as non-political, non-partisan, and fully transparent, noting that it is designed to ensure the benefits of the nation's economy reach every citizen.

Social Welfare Minister Abu Zafar Md Zahid Hossain detailed the programme, explaining that under the pilot phase, 37,567 female-headed households have been selected to receive allowances ahead of Eid in March.

Each eligible family will receive one Family Card covering up to five members, with additional cards issued proportionally for larger households, he added. "If a woman head of household already receives other government allowances, those will be cancelled, while benefits to other family members will continue," the minister explained.

Under the pilot, each household will receive a monthly allowance of Tk2,500, with plans to expand to include food assistance in the future.

A total of Tk38.07 crore has been allocated for the pilot, with Tk25.15 crore (66%) earmarked for direct cash transfers and Tk12.92 crore (34%) for data collection, system development, card preparation, and programme management.

The pilot covers 13 city corporations and 15 wards across 13 districts, supported by committees at ward, union, upazila, and district levels.

Ward committees collected detailed household information—including socio-economic status, family size, education, housing, assets (TV, fridge, computer, mobile), and remittance flows—which was then verified at union and upazila levels.

During the pilot, data from 67,854 female-headed households were analysed using a Proxy Means Test (PMT) or poverty index, classifying families into five categories: ultra-poor, poor, lower-middle-class, middle-class, and upper-class.

After verification, 47,777 households in the ultra-poor, poor, and lower-middle-class categories were confirmed, and the final 37,567 households were selected based on factors such as existing government allowances, employment, or pension status.

"The entire selection process is software-driven through the PMT, leaving no room for corruption, favouritism, or manual interference," the Social Welfare Minister stressed.

Each selected household will receive a modern smart Family Card equipped with a chip, QR code, and Near-field communication (NFC) technology to ensure safety and durability.

Minister Zahid Hossain said that households were deemed ineligible if any member received a salary, allowance, grant, or pension from government, autonomous, or state-owned institutions, if the female head worked as a teacher or staff member in an MPO-listed institution, or if the household owned commercial licenses, large businesses, luxury assets (cars, air conditioners), or savings certificates worth Tk500,000 or more.

The Family Card allowance will be disbursed directly from the Social Welfare Ministry's social security budget to beneficiaries' mobile wallets or bank accounts via the G2P (Government-to-Person) system, he added.

During data collection, beneficiaries' account information was gathered to ensure timely, accurate, and interference-free delivery of funds directly to recipients

The government is managing the country's overall economic activities with a careful eye on the global economic situation and various crises, Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said today (9 March).

"The economic challenges arising from wars and other global factors cannot be avoided. Our current activities and future economic projections are determined with these realities in mind," he said at a press conference held at the ministry's conference room to inaugurate the "Family Card" programme which launches tomorrow.

Responding to a question on whether the government would continue austerity measures in spending, he said all ministries have been instructed to plan programmes according to the prevailing situation.

"The upcoming budget will also be prepared considering these circumstances," he added.

Asked about securing oil supply from China, Khasru said, "For energy security, we are seeking cooperation from various countries. Energy security is extremely important for the country, so the government is in discussions with all countries that can supply energy and seeking their support."

He also highlighted the "Family Card" initiative as a landmark poverty reduction effort.

"To my knowledge, such a large-scale poverty alleviation programme has not been undertaken in Bangladesh before. Through this, we aim to deliver economic benefits directly to people at their doorstep," he said.

The minister emphasised that the initiative reflects a gradual shift toward a welfare state in Bangladesh.

"In the past, economic benefits were distributed through patronage systems. Now, the government is directly reaching the common people," he noted.

Mobile telecom operators have urged the regulator to ensure priority allocation of fuel and electricity for network operations, warning that disruptions in supply could affect nationwide connectivity.

Limited availability of fuel at filling stations is creating risks for maintaining uninterrupted telecom services across the country, Association of Mobile Telecom Operators of Bangladesh (AMTOB) said in a letter to the chairman of the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) yesterday (9 March).

Companies have also expressed concern about sustaining operations during the upcoming Eid holidays amid government indications of possible load shedding.

AMTOB Secretary General Mohammad Zulfikar said mobile operators rely heavily on diesel- and petrol-powered generators to keep networks running, particularly during power outages.

"If fuel supply becomes uncertain, it could hamper maintenance activities, generator operations and emergency responses required to keep the telecom network functioning," he said.

The association noted that telecommunications have been declared an essential service by the government and currently support more than 185 million mobile subscribers across the country.

Telecom infrastructure also plays a vital role in enabling emergency communication, public safety services, digital financial transactions, business operations and government services.

According to the letter, reduced fuel availability at some filling stations has already created operational challenges for operators.

AMTOB warned that insufficient fuel supply could lead to network outages across large geographical areas, instability in data centres, equipment damage and longer service restoration times.

To prevent such disruptions, the association requested the regulator to coordinate with relevant authorities to ensure priority fuel allocation for mobile network operators and tower companies.

It also called for uninterrupted fuel supply for core network facilities and data centres, assured fuel availability for base transceiver stations (BTS) and maintenance vehicles, and reduced load shedding at critical telecom infrastructure sites.

Bangladesh has been facing persistent energy challenges in recent times as the country remains heavily dependent on imported fuels, including liquefied natural gas, petroleum products and coal.

The war in the Middle East has raised concern of fuel supply, triggering the government to adopt rationing measures. Conflict has also sparked panic buying, creating shortages at fuel pumps.

A tanker carrying more than 27,000 tonnes of diesel reached the waters of Chattogram Port today (9 March), amid a nationwide fear of supply shortage ten days after the conflict in the Middle East broke out.

Shipping agents said four more diesel tankers are scheduled to arrive at the port within a week.

Together, the five tankers will bring about 147,205 tonnes of refined diesel imported from Asian countries, according to port and shipping sources.

The arrival comes at a time when diesel demand has increased due to panic buying following the war in the Middle East. To manage stock levels, the government has recently reduced the daily fuel supply.

Port sources said the tanker Xiu Chi, carrying 27,204 tonnes of diesel from Singapore, entered the port's maritime area earlier in the day. According to vessel tracking data from MarineTraffic, the tanker is currently anchored near Kutubdia.

Another tanker, Lian Huan Hu, is expected to reach the port tonight from Singapore with nearly 30,000 tonnes of diesel. The tanker SPT Themis is scheduled to arrive on Thursday carrying 30,484 tonnes.

Two additional vessels — Raffles Samurai and Chang Hang Hong Tu — are expected to reach the port next Saturday, each carrying around 30,000 tonnes of diesel.

Nazrul Islam, managing director of Pride Shipping Lines, the local agent for the four tankers, told The Business Standard that the vessels are expected to arrive within a week according to schedule.

"Once they reach the port waters, the unloading will begin sequentially," he said.

According to the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC), the country's normal daily demand for diesel is around 12,000 tonnes. The five tankers together could meet roughly 12 days of demand.

However, since Sunday, the government has reduced daily diesel supply to about 9,000 tonnes to maintain adequate reserves. At that rate, the incoming shipments could cover around 16 days of demand.

Existing stockpiles are expected to last another 16 to 17 days, meaning the combined supply would be sufficient to meet nearly a month of the country's diesel demand.

BPC data shows that diesel accounts for about 70% of Bangladesh's total fuel consumption, with most of it imported directly.

According to the National Board of Revenue, Bangladesh imported 2.328 million tonnes of diesel from nine countries between July and February of the current fiscal year.

Of that total, 78% came from Singapore, Malaysia, and India, while no diesel was imported from Middle Eastern countries during the period.

The Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers will ‌discuss on Monday a joint release of oil from emergency reserves coordinated by the International Energy Agency, the Financial Times reported.

Three G7 countries, including ⁠the US, have so far expressed support for the idea, the FT said citing sources, and added that the ministers and the IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol will hold a call to discuss the impact of the Iran ‌war.

The ⁠report comes as oil prices surged more than 25% on Monday to their highest levels since mid-2022 as some major producers cut ⁠supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions gripped the market due to the expanding US-Israeli ⁠war with Iran.

The IEA and the G7 presidency did not respond to ⁠requests for comment outside regular business hours.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has appointed observers at National Bank, Al-Arafah Islami Bank, Premier Bank, and IFIC Bank to closely monitor their activities.

The central bank made the decision this week.

“The decision to appoint observers at these banks is part of a continuous process,” said Arief Hossain Khan, executive director and spokesperson of Bangladesh Bank.

Munir Ahmed Chowdhury, director of the Bank Supervision Department-12 of BB, has been appointed as an observer to the National Bank.

Mohammad Anisur Rahman, director of the Islamic Banking Regulations and Policy Department, has been assigned to observe Al-Arafah Islami Bank.

ANM Moinul Kabir, director of the Payment Systems Department-1, has been appointed to Premier Bank.

AKM Kamruzzaman, director of the Forex Reserve and Treasury Management Department-1, has been appointed to IFIC Bank.

The central bank usually appoints observers to banks whose financial health is deteriorating.

Observers take part in board meetings and monitor the banks’ operations. They are withdrawn once the financial health of the bank improves.

After the fall of the Awami League-led government on August 5, 2024, the central bank restructured the boards of 14 banks, including these four lenders.

The government has issued a fresh circular to appoint a managing director (MD) for state-owned Sammilito Islami Bank after the previously selected candidate declined to take the position.

The Financial Institutions Division of the Ministry of Finance published the new recruitment notice today (8 March), inviting applications from qualified and experienced candidates.

In February, Nabil Mustafizur Rahman, additional managing director of United Commercial Bank (UCB) PLC, was appointed as the MD of Sammilito Islami Bank.

However, he later expressed his inability to assume the role citing "physical illness," a reliable Bangladesh Bank source confirmed the matter to The Business Standard.

As he did not join the post, the authorities have issued a fresh recruitment notice for the position.

According to the circular, the selected candidate will initially be appointed on a three-year contractual basis, with the possibility of renewal based on satisfactory performance.

Applicants must have at least 20 years of experience in the banking sector. They must also have served either as the chief executive officer of a bank or held a position directly below the CEO for at least two years.

Candidates are required to have expertise in Islamic banking operations, Shariah governance, Islamic accounting systems, profit distribution mechanisms, and Islamic risk management. Experience in digital banking, organisational transformation, or bank mergers will be considered an added qualification.
Nabil Mustafizur Rahman appointed first MD of Sammilito Islami Bank

Applicants must be between 45 and 60 years of age at the time of the circular's publication and must not be loan defaulters.

The appointed MD will oversee all operations of the bank, including corporate, SME, retail, treasury, agriculture, international trade, and digital banking. The role will also involve developing Shariah-based banking products, strengthening risk management, and coordinating organisational integration following the bank merger.

Applications will initially be screened based on qualifications, after which shortlisted candidates will be invited for interviews. Final appointment will require background verification and approval under Bangladesh Bank's "fit and proper" criteria.

Interested candidates must submit their CV, cover letter, attested copies of academic and professional certificates, a copy of their national ID card, and a passport-size photograph. Applications must be sent in a sealed envelope addressed to the Secretary of the Financial Institutions Division at the Bangladesh Secretariat in Dhaka, along with a PDF copy sent via email.

The deadline for submitting applications is 25 March by 5pm.

Sammilito Islami Bank PLC was formed as a new state-owned bank through the merger of five weak Islamic banks – EXIM Bank, Social Islami Bank, First Security Islami Bank, Global Islami Bank, and Union Bank.

The bank's paid-up capital has been set at Tk35,000 crore, of which the government will contribute Tk20,000 crore and Tk15,000 crore will come from depositors' shares. Its authorised capital has been fixed at Tk40,000 crore.

Fuel reserves in Bangladesh have increased with the arrival of two fuel-laden ships, but the government will continue rationing supplies due to uncertainty surrounding the ongoing war, Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood Tuku said today (8 March).

"Once these two ships deliver fuel, our reserves will increase further," he said while speaking at a discussion programme at the Jatiya Press Club.

The minister said rising reserves do not mean fuel can be used in an uncontrolled manner. "We will continue rationing for as long as the war continues."

Explaining the need for rationing, Tuku said the duration of the war remains uncertain and the government wants to use the existing reserves carefully.

"We do not know when the war will end. That is why we have asked people to use fuel sparingly and introduced rationing so that the reserves last longer. If we consume everything at once, the reserves will quickly run out. But if we manage consumption properly, we will be able to continue for a longer time," he added.

Tuku also said rumours are being spread that the government may increase electricity and fuel prices due to the war.

"I want to assure people that we are not increasing power prices for now," he said.

The minister urged people not to panic or stockpile fuel out of fear of a price hike.

"There is no shortage of fuel, but rationing must continue. We do not know when the war will end, and people should understand that," he added.

The minister also urged BNP leaders and activists, as well as the public, to remain vigilant so that fuel is not smuggled or sold on the black market.

Referring to the condition of the power sector under the previous government, Tuku said the current administration inherited a fragile and debt-ridden system with outstanding dues of around Tk76,000 crore.

"Despite the challenges, we have managed to keep the system stable so far, and we hope it will remain stable in the future," he said.

Oil prices surged about 20% on Monday (9 March), hitting their highest since July 2022, as the expanding US-Israeli war with Iran ‌led some major Middle Eastern oil producers to cut supplies and on fears of prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.

Iraq and Kuwait have begun cutting oil output, adding to earlier liquefied natural gas reductions from Qatar, as the war blocked shipments from the Middle East.

Analysts predict the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will have to also cut output ​soon as they run out of oil storage.

The war could leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even ​if the week-old conflict ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics and elevated risks to shipping.

Brent crude futures ⁠rose as much as $18.35, or 19.8%, to $111.04 a barrel and were up $15.24, or 16.4%, at $107.93 as of 0014 GMT on Monday.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were ​up $16.50, or 18.2%, at $107.40 a barrel, after rising as much as $20.34, or 22.4%, to $111.24 earlier in the session.

Brent climbed 27% and WTI rose 35.6% last week, before ​the latest jumps.

"I think prices have rallied this morning on the reports that Middle East producers are now reducing output due to storage facilities filling up fast," said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ.

"The next flag will be whether it eventually gets to a point where they have to start shutting in oil wells, which not only impacts output even further, it ​delays a response once the conflict eases as well. That would potentially sustain those prices for much longer," Hynes added.

Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields ​has fallen by 70% to just 1.3 million barrels per day as the country is unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war, three industry ‌sources said ⁠on Sunday. Crude storage has reached maximum capacity, said an official with the state-run Basra Oil Company.

Kuwait Petroleum Corporation began cutting oil output on Saturday and declared force majeure on shipments, though it did not say how much production it would shut.

Iran's attacks on oil infrastructure across the region have continued. Fujairah Media Office said fire broke out in the UAE's Fujairah oil industry zone resulting from debris falling, with no injuries reported. Saudi Arabia's Defence Ministry said on X it intercepted a drone heading to ​the Shaybah oilfield.

New leader

Iran on Monday named Mojtaba ​Khamenei to succeed his father Ali ⁠Khamenei as Supreme Leader, signalling that hardliners remain firmly in charge in Tehran a week into its conflict with the United States and Israel.

"With the appointment of the late leader's son as Iran's new leader, US President Donald Trump's goal of ​regime change in Iran has become more difficult," said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities.

"That view accelerated buying, ​as Iran is expected ⁠to continue its closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on other oil-producing nations' facilities, as seen last week," he said, predicting WTI could rise to $120 and then $130 a barrel in a relatively short period.

Israel's military has threatened to kill any replacement for Khamenei, while Trump said the war might only end once Iran's military and rulers had ⁠been wiped ​out.

Meanwhile, as oil prices surged, US Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called on Trump to release ​oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

"President Trump should release oil from the SPR now to stabilise markets, bring prices down, and stop the price shock that American families are already feeling thanks to his ​reckless war," Schumer said in a statement.

Banks will have to keep provisions for potential losses before loans turn bad, from January 2028, according to a directive given by Bangladesh Bank (BB), which aims to enable lenders to detect the risk of credit deterioration in advance and enhance transparency in financial reporting.

To identify potential loan losses, banks will be required to classify loans based on a global standard -- the International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9). It specifies how an entity should classify and measure financial assets, financial liabilities and some contracts to buy or sell non-financial items.

In a circular yesterday, BB introduced guidelines for the loan loss framework based on IFRS 9.

Under the guidelines, banks will be required to apply the IFRS 9-based Expected Credit Loss (ECL) model to funded and non-funded credit facilities from January 1, 2028. The system will later be extended to other financial instruments from January 1, 2029.

Under the new framework, loans will be classified into three stages based on changes in credit risk: performing loans (Stage 1), loans with a significant increase in risk (Stage 2), and credit-impaired loans (Stage 3).

Provisions will be calculated based on either 12-month or lifetime expected credit losses, depending on the stage. A provision against loans is an expense set aside by banks from their earnings to cover anticipated losses from unpaid or defaulted loans.

The new rules will also extend provisioning requirements to off-balance-sheet exposures such as loan commitments, bank guarantees and unused credit lines, enabling banks to assess risks more comprehensively.

Currently, banks follow a rule-based loan classification and provisioning system, which relies on the “incurred-loss” approach -- where provisions are typically made after loans show clear signs of deterioration.

The IFRS 9 framework will shift the system to a forward-looking model, requiring banks to estimate potential credit losses in advance rather than waiting for borrowers to default.

Lenders will also have to account for macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, inflation and interest rate trends when assessing credit risk.

Banks will need to upgrade their data infrastructure and risk-modelling systems to implement the framework, while the central bank will provide regulatory guidance and supervisory support to ensure a smooth transition, central bank officials said.

Industry insiders said that the successful implementation of IFRS 9 would make the banking sector more resilient and attractive to foreign investors by strengthening international confidence.

The US dollar held broadly steady in Asian trade ​on Friday and was poised for its steepest weekly gain in more than a year as the escalating conflict in the Middle East drove demand for safe-haven ‌assets.

The euro and yen remained on the back foot as the crisis drove oil prices ever higher, spurring inflation risks in economies dependent on energy imports and upending policy expectations for the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

Earlier hopes for a de-escalation gave way to fresh uncertainty, with Iran warning that Washington would “bitterly regret” the sinking of an Iranian warship. US President Donald Trump said he wanted to be involved in choosing ​Iran’s next head of state after US and Israeli air strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the early moments of the war.

“If the Middle Eastern conflict ​continues at its current intensity, it’s likely to bring sustained higher inflation, a stronger US dollar, and a vastly reduced chance of Fed ⁠rate cuts,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was trading a touch lower at 99.03, still on ​course for a 1.4 percent gain this week that would be the most since November 2024.

The euro was little changed at $1.161 and set for a 1.7 percent slide this week. The yen fell ​0.2 percent to 157.83 per dollar. Sterling nudged up 0.02 percent to $1.3358.

The war intensified on Thursday, with US and Israeli jets hitting areas across Iran, and Gulf cities coming under renewed bombardment.

In a phone interview with Reuters, Trump said Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of the late supreme leader who has been considered a favorite to succeed his father, was an unlikely choice.

The greenback was one of a handful of winners in a volatile ​few sessions that have dragged stocks, bonds and, at times, even safe-haven precious metals lower.

“Broadly speaking, we are seeing most clients reduce risk across both G10 and EM currencies,” said ​Nathan Swami, head of FX trading for Japan, Asia North, Asia South and Australia at Citi in Singapore.

“When the conflict started over the weekend, we saw hedgers and custodians buy dollars in many of the onshore ‌markets. Central bank ⁠support has kept Asian FX markets in check for now, but we think more depreciation pressure will build up the longer the conflict lasts.”

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said in parliament that the weak yen was pushing up import costs and may affect underlying inflation.

If the Middle East conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz last only about a month, the impact on growth in developing Asia would be modest, said Albert Park, chief economist for the Asian Development Bank.

The spike in energy prices from the Middle East war has stoked fears of ​a resurgence in inflation, with overnight index swaps (OIS) ​showing shifts in rate outlooks for major ⁠central banks.