Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday they would not let any oil be shipped from the Middle East ​if US and Israeli attacks continue, prompting President Donald Trump to say the US would hit Iran much harder if it blocked exports.

The rhetoric did little to quell a fall ‌in crude prices and a rally in global shares that followed Trump expressing confidence in a swift end to hostilities, even after Iran showed defiance by naming Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader.

Trump said on Monday the US had inflicted serious damage on Iran's military. He also predicted the conflict would end before the initial four-week time frame he had set out, although he has not defined what victory would look like.

Israel says its war aim is to overthrow Iran's system of clerical ​rule.
"Our aspiration is to bring the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement issued by his office on Tuesday.

"In the ​end, that depends on them. But there is no doubt that through the actions taken so far we are breaking their bones - and our hand is ⁠still extended," he said. "If we succeed together with the Iranian people, we will bring about a permanent end - if such things exist in the life of nations."

US officials have mainly said Washington's aim is ​to destroy Iran's missile capabilities and nuclear programme, but Trump has said the war can end only with a compliant Iranian government.

At least 1,332 Iranian civilians have been killed and thousands wounded, according to Iran's ​U.N. ambassador, since the US and Israel began air and missile strikes across Iran at the end of February.

Trump said US attacks could increase sharply if Iran sought to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

“We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world," Trump told a press conference on Monday.

IRAN SAYS IT ​WILL DETERMINE END OF WAR

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it would not allow any oil to leave the region if attacks from the US and Israel continue.

"We are the ones who will determine the ​end of the war," a spokesperson said, describing Trump's comments as "nonsense", according to state media.

In a later Truth Social post, Trump repeated his warning.

"If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, ‌they will be ⁠hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," he said.

Saudi Aramco, the world's top oil exporter, warned on Tuesday of "catastrophic consequences" for global oil markets if the war continued to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait is the world's most vital oil export route, connecting the biggest Gulf oil producers with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

The war has already effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving tankers unable to sail for more than a week and forcing producers to halt pumping as storage facilities fill.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran was ​unlikely to resume negotiations with the U.S, which he ​said had spoken of progress after three ⁠rounds of talks.

"Still, they decided to attack us. So, I don't think talking to the Americans anymore would be on our agenda any more," he said in an interview with PBS.

The appointment on Monday of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appeared to dash hopes of a swift end ​to the war, sending oil markets surging and share markets nosediving. Markets swung in the other direction when Trump predicted a quick end to the ​war and after reports of ⁠a possible ease in sanctions on Russian energy.

After speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump said the US would waive oil-related sanctions on "some countries" to ease the shortage.

According to multiple sources, that could mean a further easing of sanctions on Russian oil, which could complicate efforts to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine. Other options include a possible release of oil from strategic reserves or restricting US exports, sources said.

Brent crude futures fell more ⁠than 10 percent on ​Tuesday after soaring by as much as 29 percent on Monday to their highest since 2022. Global stock markets also bounced.

The price ​of gasoline has particular political resonance in the United States, where voters cite rising costs as a top concern ahead of the November midterm elections, when Trump's Republicans will try to keep control of Congress.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday found 67 percent of Americans expect ​gas prices to rise over the coming months, and only 29 percent approve of the war.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has approved the conversion of the “SEML Lecture Equity Management Fund” from a closed-end to an open-end mutual fund.Bangladesh Economic Report

The decision was finalised during the 1002nd commission meeting held today at the Commission’s meeting room, said a press release.

BSEC Chairman Khondoker Rashed Maqsood presided over the session, where the fund’s structural transition was among several regulatory matters addressed.

The commission’s approval to transform the fund into a perpetual, open-end format follows the completion of its mandatory 10-year term as a closed-end fund.

Additionally, the Commission approved all relevant documents pertaining to the fund.

The initial size of the newly converted open-end SEML Lecture Equity Management Fund will be Taka 50 crore.

Strategic Equity Management Limited is acting as the Asset Manager, while Bangladesh General Insurance Company PLC and Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC are serving as the Trustee and Custodian, respectively.

Policy experts suggest the new government should adopt a realistic fiscal framework for the upcoming national budget as overly ambitious targets could worsen macroeconomic pressures amid geopolitical tensions and domestic economic challenges.Global Economy Insights

To make it, the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) economists have recommend for the government's finance authorities to set achievable revenue projections and adopt measures for stronger fiscal management and structural reforms in the 2026-27 budget in the offing.

The CPD suggestion came at a media briefing the think-tank arranged Tuesday in Dhaka for placing recommendations for the budget.

Executive director of CPD Dr Fahmida Khatun noted that the country's economy was currently facing multiple internal and external pressures that require careful and strategic policy responses.

Ensuring macroeconomic stability, boosting investment, protecting vulnerable groups and creating employment opportunities should be the key priorities in the FY2026-27 budget, she said.

The CPD executive makes a point that this happens to be the first national budget of the newly elected government and, therefore, represents "an important opportunity to demonstrate leadership in fiscal management and policy direction".Earned Wage Access

However, she warns that credible revenue projections and disciplined public spending would must-dos to achieve those objectives.

"The government should avoid setting overly ambitious targets and instead focus on realistic revenue projections, stronger fiscal management and structural reforms," she told the press.

The policy outfit warns that global geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Israel and Iran, pose significant risks to Bangladesh's economy by increasing energy prices and inflating the country's import bill.

Bangladesh relies heavily on imported energy, particularly liquefied natural gas and crude oils from the Middle East, making the economy vulnerable to supply disruptions and global price volatility.

Any disruption to global energy-supply chains could quickly translate into higher domestic inflation, the think-tank alerts.

Dr Khatun raised concerns over a recent trade agreement between Bangladesh and the United States.City & Local Guides

Under the agreement, Bangladesh will provide duty-free access to around 4,500 US products, while tariffs on another 2,210 products will be gradually reduced over the next five to ten years.

As a result, CPD estimates, the government may lose about Tk13.27 billion in customs revenue during the current fiscal year.

"The government should reassess the implications of the agreement for both revenue earnings and public spending and, if necessary, reopen discussions with the United States," Dr Khatun said.

According to the CPD, the agreement could also raise issues under World Trade Organisation rules, as Bangladesh might face pressure to extend similar tariff concessions to other trading partners.

She points out that some provisions require Bangladesh to purchase certain products from the United States which could increase government expenditure.

Distinguished fellow of the CPD Dr Mustafizur Rahman said global trade is increasingly being used as a geopolitical tool, weakening the multilateral trading system.

He suggests that the full details of the agreement should be made public as it contains important financial and policy implications.

Since the private sector will be involved in implementing parts of the agreement, the government may need to provide incentives or subsidies to encourage businesses to import US products, he said.Bangladesh Stock Market

The CPD also expressed concern over Bangladesh's weak revenue mobilisation.

Revenue growth reached only 12.9 per cent until January of the current fiscal year, far below the annual target of 34.5 per cent.

To meet the annual target, revenue collection would need to grow by nearly 59 per cent during the remaining months of the fiscal year, which Dr Khatun describes as unrealistic and impossible.

The revenue shortfall has already come to around Tk600 billion, increasing pressure on government finances.

Due to weak revenue collection, the government's reliance on bank borrowing has risen sharply.

Until December, the government had borrowed Tk 596.55 billion from the banking sector, while non-bank borrowing and foreign financing declined.

"Excessive borrowing from banks creates risks in the financial sector and crowds out private-sector credit," Dr Khatun said.

The think-tank also has highlighted broader economic challenges, including persistently high inflation, weak investment and slow implementation of development projects.Earned Wage Access

Inflation has remained above 8.0 per cent, while export earnings declined by 3.2 per cent during the current fiscal year. Imports, meanwhile, rose by 3.9 per cent.

Implementation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) also slowed significantly, with only 20.3 per cent of projects completed by January - the lowest rate in the past 15 years.

The CPD mentions that Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio remains extremely low, around 6.8 per cent, and calls for comprehensive reforms to improve domestic resource mobilisation.

To strengthen the investment climate, Dr Khatun suggests simplifying business-registration procedures and reducing regulatory complexities.

The think-tank also recommends introducing tax incentives for digital infrastructure and establishing a special credit programme offering loans at interest rates of 3.0-5.0 per cent for environmentally sustainable small and medium enterprises.

The Centre further urges improvements in logistics and energy planning.

Among its proposals is also full automation of operations at Port of Chittagong to improve efficiency and reduce delays in trade and cargo handling.Global Economy Insights

The organisation also calls for a clear national roadmap for energy security, emphasising the need to strengthen electricity transmission and distribution alongside power generation.

The CPD notes that although the government has applied to the UN to extend time for the LDC graduation, it is still pending.

But the government should start rationalising the tariffs and incentives for the domestic industries as well as exploring regional trade agreements.

A high-profile mission of the United Nations (UN) is scheduled to visit Dhaka next month to present its findings on Bangladesh's graduation readiness assessment, although the Bangladesh government has sought a three-year postponement of its graduation from the LDC category.Maps

According to a UN official communication, the mission of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS) is expected to visit Bangladesh from April 03 to April 07, 2026 to share the results and conclusions of the country's 'Graduation Readiness Assessment'.

The delegation will be led by UN Under-Secretary-General and High Representative Rabab Fatima.

During the visit, a half-day high-level multi-stakeholder consultation is scheduled to be held in Dhaka on April 5, where the UN team will discuss the assessment findings and the proposed pathway for Bangladesh's smooth and sustainable transition from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category.

The UN delegation has also requested bilateral meetings with several top government leaders during the visit, including Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman, Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury and Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir, it was learnt.

Officials concerned said the proposed meetings are expected to provide an opportunity to discuss the readiness assessment in detail and explore policy options to ensure a smooth and sustainable transition for Bangladesh after its graduation from the LDC group.

The UN mission comes at a time when Bangladesh has requested the United Nations to defer its LDC graduation timeline, citing mounting local and global economic uncertainties, trade vulnerabilities and structural challenges.

Bangladesh is currently scheduled to graduate from the LDC category in 2026, a transition that will gradually phase out several international trade benefits, including preferential market access and special support measures, a senior official of the commerce ministry said.Personal Finance Advice

However, economists and policymakers have raised concerns that the loss of such privileges could affect key export sectors-particularly the apparel industry-unless adequate preparations and international support mechanisms are secured.

Officials familiar with the process said the upcoming UN consultations are expected to focus on assessing Bangladesh's economic and institutional readiness for graduation, identifying policy gaps and transition risks and discussing possible international support measures during the post-graduation period.

The UN office noted that the exchanges in Dhaka would provide a valuable platform to review the readiness assessment and chart the way forward for Bangladesh's graduation process.

Blue-chip stocks led a strong recovery in the capital market for the second consecutive session, helping the benchmark index of the Dhaka bourse rebound sharply after the recent heavy sell-offs triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) benchmark index, the DSEX, gained 148 points today (10 March) to close at 5,290, extending a two-day rally that has recovered about 280 points, largely driven by gains in large-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly shares of the bank and telecom sectors.

Stocks suffered their highest single-day fall in six years on Sunday, the first trading session of the week, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered panic selling across the market.

The index plunged 231 points, or 4.42%, to close at 5,008, hitting a two-month low and marking the biggest one-day decline since the Covid-19 pandemic era.

According to data, turnover at the Dhaka bourse increased by 42.7% to Tk593.7 crore as investor participation rose compared with the previous session's Tk416 crore.

Yesterday, trading began at DSE on a positive note as buying appetite surged. Throughout the session, buyers dominated the market.

By the end of trading, the DSEX, which reflects around 97% of the total market capitalisation, closed up 2.88%, or 148 points.

The other two major indices – DSES, the Shariah index, and DS30, the blue-chip index – also surged by 2.24% (23.24 points) and 3.18% (63 points), respectively.

The DS30 is constructed with 30 leading companies and is considered the exchange's investable index. It reflects around 51% of the total market capitalisation.

Among the traded stocks, 339 advanced, 13 declined, and 37 remained unchanged.

According to the LankaBangla Financial Portal, bank stocks contributed significantly to the rise in the indices. BRAC Bank pulled the DSEX up by 19 points, while Islami Bank Bangladesh added 14 points, Pubali Bank 5 points, City Bank 4.52 points, and Prime Bank 4.50 points.

Meanwhile, Square Pharmaceuticals contributed 11 points, and BAT Bangladesh added 6 points to the index.

In the previous session, Islami Bank Bangladesh, BRAC Bank, City Bank and Pubali Bank jointly lifted the DSEX by 54 points out of the total 132-point increase.

Although 36 banks are listed, trading is currently active for 31 banks, as the shares of five Islamic banks remain suspended following their merger into a single entity named Sammilito Islami Bank.

Share prices of 24 banks increased yesterday, while no bank stocks declined, and seven remained unchanged.

EBL Securities, in its daily market commentary, said the recovery momentum in the country's capital market extended for a second consecutive session, as investors took comfort from indications of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict and easing concerns over immediate fuel supply shocks in the country.

"The market started with predominant buying pressure, and the momentum strengthened steadily as the session progressed, leading to broad-based price appreciation across most scrips for consecutive sessions," it said.

On the sectoral front, bank stocks accounted for the highest share of turnover at 24%, followed by the food sector at 15.5% and the pharmaceutical sector at 12.8%.

Pragati Life Insurance topped the gainer list, hitting the upper circuit, the highest single-day limit capped by the regulator, by 9.98% to Tk210.3 each.

It was followed by Asia Insurance by 8.30% to Tk37.8 each, Nahee Aluminum by 8.29% to Tk20.9 each, the First Janata Mutual Fund by 7.69% to Tk2.8 each, and Asia Pacific Insurance by 7.41% to Tk36.2 each.

While on the losing side, Metro Spinning Mills topped the loser list as its share price fell by 2.06% to Tk9.5 each, followed by Premier Cement by 1.89% to Tk36.3 each, and Newline Clothing by 1.75% to Tk5.6 each.

Meanwhile, the port city bourse, at Chittagong Stock Exchange, also settled in a positive territory.

Its Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) and All Share Price Index (CASPI) advanced by 206.8 points and 332.3 points, respectively.

Bangladesh's exporters are increasingly concerned that the ongoing war in the Middle East could slow new export orders as rising fuel prices push up living costs in major consumer markets.

Industry leaders say higher energy costs are already driving up prices of essential goods such as groceries and transport in key destinations including Europe, the United States and Australia. As households spend more on necessities, exporters fear demand for non-essential products such as ready-made garments (RMG) may weaken, potentially leading to fewer purchase orders.

Some European buyers have already postponed order plans, while others have cancelled orders, exporters said.

"We expected orders to increase after the national election, but that has not happened, largely because the war has begun," said Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA).

He said some buyers have recently put pre-order negotiations on hold.

Concerns spread beyond garments

The worries extend beyond the country's largest export sector, the RMG industry, which accounts for around 85% of Bangladesh's export earnings.

Exporters from other sectors say they are also seeing early signs of hesitation from overseas buyers.

Officials at Creations Private Limited, a major exporter of jute-based lifestyle products, said they had expected to finalise new orders with international buyers after attending the Ambiente consumer goods fair in Frankfurt two weeks ago.

Md Rashedul Karim Munna, managing director of the company, said several buyers discussed potential orders during the fair and negotiations were scheduled for this week.

"But after the war began, they suspended those discussions," he told The Business Standard.

"Not only have order plans been postponed, in some cases orders that had already been placed were cancelled."

Munna said rising energy costs across Europe are forcing buyers to reallocate budgets.

"As transportation and grocery prices rise, buyers are allocating more of their budgets to those sectors. As a result, demand for our exported products may decline," he said, warning that a prolonged conflict could significantly affect exports.

Footwear exporters also cautious

Exporters in the leather and synthetic footwear sector are also reporting uncertainty.

Tipu Sultan, managing director of Bengal Leather Complex Limited and the newly elected president of the Bangladesh Tanners Association, said negotiations for new orders were expected to begin in April.

"But after the war started, those discussions have been temporarily suspended," he said.

"If the war drags on, we may fail to secure export orders."

Exporters had hoped that although 2025 was a difficult year, the formation of a new government following the national election would create a more favourable environment for trade and investment.

However, industry leaders say global uncertainty is now overshadowing those expectations.

Freight delays and rising shipping costs

Exporters say logistics are also becoming more complicated as the conflict disrupts global energy supply routes.

Mohammad Hatem said freight costs have already started to rise and shipping times are getting longer.

Although buyers typically bear freight costs under most export contracts, he said some of the increased expenses are eventually passed back to suppliers indirectly.

Officials at DBL Group, one of Bangladesh's largest exporters, also expressed concern.

MA Rahim Feroz, vice chairman of DBL Group, said grocery prices in Europe are already increasing.

"With rising fuel prices, transportation costs will also increase," he said.

"Since incomes cannot easily increase, consumers will prioritise spending on groceries and transport, pushing clothing purchases further down their list of priorities."

However, he added that buyers in Europe and the US have not yet sent any formal negative signals.

Export slump continues

Bangladesh's export performance has already been weakening in recent months.

According to the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), the country's exports have declined for seven consecutive months.

During the first eight months of the current 2025-26 fiscal year – from July to February – exports fell by 3.15% compared with the same period a year earlier. In February alone, exports dropped by more than 12%.

Exporters and analysts say the slowdown has been partly driven by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in mid-2025.

Diesel shortages raise fresh concerns

At the same time, industrialists warn that domestic fuel supply problems are emerging as the conflict disrupts oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Some factories have already reported difficulty obtaining diesel.

Minhazul Hoque, a director of BKMEA, said three member factories have reported shortages.

"If they cannot get diesel, it will be difficult to run factories, which could disrupt export shipments," he said.

Bangladesh's industries rely heavily on gas-based electricity generation, but declining gas pressure and frequent power outages in recent years have forced many factories to rely on diesel-powered generators.

Spinning mills – a key backward linkage industry for garments – are particularly energy-intensive.

"Diesel is not available," Mohammad Hatem said.

Nafis-Ud-Doula, a director of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said the issue has already been raised with the power, energy and mineral resources ministry.

"We have requested that a quota be allocated for industries in diesel distribution," he said.

Supply chain risks emerging

SM Khaled, managing director of Snowtex Group, said shipping schedules at ports have already become more complicated.

"Some buyers are asking suppliers to send goods to the port ahead of schedule," he said.

He added that rising oil prices could also increase the cost of fuel-based yarn and fabric, raising production costs for exporters.

Kazy Mohammad Iqbal Hossain, South Asia sustainability manager of Lindex HK Ltd, an EU-based brand, said the impact on Bangladesh's supply chain has so far been limited.

"However, if this war continues for two to three weeks, it will have a significant impact," he said, adding that vessel schedules could face disruptions.

Inflation risk for export markets

Economists say prolonged conflict could trigger inflation in Bangladesh's export destinations, further weakening demand.

Dr Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), said rising energy prices would increase inflation in importing countries.

"As inflation rises, demand for the products Bangladesh mainly exports will decline," he said.

"At the same time, disruptions in supply chains and higher oil prices will increase the cost of doing business."

The taka weakened further yesterday as concerns grew over exports and remittance inflows, amid the ongoing war in Iran, which has driven up oil prices and raised fears of an energy crisis.

The dollar rose by up to Tk 0.8, reaching Tk 122.63 in the spot market, compared with a high of Tk 122.55 the day before.

In the interbank market, the weighted average rate of the dollar climbed to Tk 122.58 from Tk 122.49. This marks the fifth consecutive day of gains for the dollar after remaining stable at Tk 122.30 per US dollar for over a month, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

Globally, the US dollar strengthened as turmoil in the Middle East intensified, pushing investors toward the currency amid rising oil prices caused by the US-Israel war on Iran.

Local bankers said the recent rise in the dollar is partly due to the Bangladesh Bank’s decision to avoid intervening in the market.

Since the start of fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26), the central bank has purchased over $5 billion from the foreign exchange market to rebuild reserves, which had fallen below $20 billion after earlier sales aimed at preventing a sharp fall in the taka’s value.

Between FY21 and FY25, the Bangladesh Bank sold more than $25 billion from its reserves to help the government pay for fuel, fertiliser, and food imports.

As of 8 March 2026, Bangladesh’s gross forex reserves stood at $34 billion, while readily usable reserves, calculated using an IMF formula, were $29.38 billion.

Bangladesh has asked Bhutan to submit a proposal for a possible free trade agreement (FTA) after the Himalayan kingdom expressed interest in upgrading existing bilateral trade ties from the current preferential trade agreement (PTA).

Once the proposal arrives, it will be sent to the technical committee on trade for scrutiny before a final decision is taken, Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman told The Daily Star today.

The development came on the final day of a two-day visit to Dhaka by a commerce secretary-level delegation from Bhutan.

Tashi Wangmo, secretary of Bhutan’s Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Employment, raised the proposal for an FTA during a meeting between the two sides at a hotel in Dhaka.

In December 2020, Bangladesh and Bhutan signed a PTA. Under the agreement, Bangladesh grants duty-free access to 34 Bhutanese products, while Bhutan allows duty-free entry for 100 Bangladeshi goods.

The deal marked Bangladesh’s first bilateral trade agreement.

During today’s meeting, Bhutan also asked Bangladesh to expand the list of products eligible for duty-free access under the PTA from the current 34 items.

Moreover, the Bhutanese side proposed using Chattogram port for imports and exports, citing the country’s landlocked geography, Rahman said.

He added that Bangladesh would allow Bhutan to use Pangaon port in Keraniganj and Khanpur river port in Narayanganj to transport goods. Dhaka will review Thimphu’s request to use Chattogram port.

Recently, a shipment imported from Thailand by Bhutanese importers passed through Chattogram port as a trial run, Rahman said.

If the arrangement is approved, the ministries of road transport and highways and shipping, along with other relevant agencies, will determine the fee structure for Bhutan’s use of Chattogram port, he added.

Bangladesh has sought assistance from China to ensure a seamless fuel supply from Chinese suppliers under a settled long-term agreement following reports of restrictions on fuel exports from Chinese refineries.

The request was made during a meeting held at the power, energy and mineral resources ministry yesterday (10 March), attended by the minister, state minister, two secretaries, and Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen.

Chinese state-owned company Unipec exports a substantial amount of diesel to Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) is supposed to receive at least three diesel cargoes with 30,000 tonnes each between 13 and 29 March.

Following the restrictions, BPC said there is uncertainty about those cargoes, as well as concerns raised by other suppliers about the smooth supply of fuel, citing the Middle East war.

Energy ministry officials said after Bangladesh requested an uninterrupted supply, the ambassador advised the minister to share the fuel import plan earlier determined between the BPC and Chinese suppliers.

When asked about the meeting with the Chinese envoy, ministry officials declined to comment on record.

Energy Division sources said the ambassador assured that the fuel supply issue would be discussed with the Chinese government once Bangladesh submits details on the fuel supply window and quantity expected from Chinese suppliers.

Speaking to journalists at the ministry later, the Chinese ambassador said there are proposals from both sides to expand energy cooperation.

"We discussed better ways forward and modalities on how to expand cooperation in the power and energy sector," he said.

Wen added that China had raised the issue of expanding investment in Bangladesh's power and energy sector, particularly in solar energy cooperation.

When asked whether Bangladesh raised the issue of the ongoing energy crisis, the ambassador replied, "Yes. We discussed this issue, but I am not in a position to comment on it now."

Energy Division sources told TBS that Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku raised the issue of supply uncertainty from Chinese companies.

5,000 tonnes of diesel imported from India

Meanwhile, amid panic buying and growing concern in the fuel market, Bangladesh imported 5,000 tonnes of diesel from India yesterday, just a day after BPC imported more than 27,000 tonnes of diesel.

BPC Chairman Muhammad Rezanur Rahman confirmed the import of diesel from India.

Energy Division officials said BPC will receive another 5,000 tonnes of diesel from India today through the 131-kilometre India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline, which runs from the Siliguri Marketing Terminal in India to the Parbatipur depot in Dinajpur, enabling direct diesel transportation between the two countries.

The diesel import is taking place under an earlier agreement between BPC and Numaligarh Refinery Limited, an Indian state-owned refinery, for the January–June supply window this year.

Earlier, Bangladesh requested India to ramp up diesel exports under the existing agreement.

Under the deal between BPC and Numaligarh Refinery Limited, the refinery is scheduled to supply 1.8 lakh tonnes of diesel annually through the cross-border pipeline.

Of this volume, around 1.2 lakh tonnes have already been confirmed, while Bangladesh retains the option to import an additional 60,000 tonnes depending on demand.

The pipeline was inaugurated in March 2023 during the tenure of the Sheikh Hasina-led government and has the capacity to transport around 2 lakh tonnes of diesel annually.

"According to the agreement, at least 90,000 tonnes of diesel should be imported to Bangladesh from India within six months.

"The consignment arriving today (Tuesday) is 5,000 tonnes, and we hope that within the next two months we will bring in the total diesel amount for the entire six months," the BPC chairman said.

Outstanding power bills

Meanwhile, leaders of the Bangladesh Independent Power Producers' Association (BIPPA) met State Minister for Power and Energy Aninda Islam Amit, raising the issue of outstanding power bills amounting to Tk14,000 crore as well as liquidated damages (LD) imposed by BPDB for failing to provide electricity as demanded.

During the meeting, a six-member BIPPA delegation, led by its President David Hasanat, urged the government to release funds to clear the outstanding power bills so that Letters of Credit (LCs) can be opened to import fuel and keep HFO-based power plants running during the upcoming summer.

Power Division sources said the state minister acknowledged the seriousness of clearing the bills and assured that the matter would be settled soon.

No plan to hike fuel prices

The state minister also reiterated the government's position on a possible fuel price hike amid rising global prices and panic buying.

"There is no reason to increase the prices of fuel or electricity," he said.

Earlier, on 5 March, all state-owned oil marketing companies proposed raising fuel prices to discourage panic buying as Bangladesh faces growing uncertainty over energy supplies amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Managing directors of Padma Oil Company Limited, Jamuna Oil Company Limited, and Meghna Petroleum Limited jointly recommended a price hike, arguing that higher prices could discourage consumers and businesses from stockpiling fuel.

The state minister also said Bangladesh has the capacity to maintain normal energy and power supply until May.

"The concerns and anxiety people are feeling over fuel and electricity will fade soon. At present, there is no shortage in the country," the state minister said.

Intense monitoring over the years resulted in steady progress in project implementation and portfolio management, leading to a gradual decline in cancellation and repurposing of Asian Development Bank (ADB)'s loans in Bangladesh – from $1 billion in 2024 to $450 million last year.

In 2026, an additional $245.6 million is projected for adjustment through cancellations and repurposing, according to a report presented at the Tripartite Portfolio Review Meeting on Asian Development Bank-funded projects that began yesterday (10 March) in Dhaka.

The report says in 2025, Bangladesh's portfolio of ADB projects saw improvements in both contract awards and disbursements compared to the previous year.

Contract awards reached $581.2 million, achieving 95.8% of the annual target of $611.3 million, while disbursements totalled $1.118 billion, or 82.5% of the target of $1.351 billion. The figures represent an overall increase in performance compared with 2024, reflecting progress in project implementation and portfolio management, it says.

The lender identifies those projects for cancellation or repurposing which show limited progress despite concerted efforts for improvement.

The ongoing portfolio of the ADB in Bangladesh stood at $10.21 billion covering 48 projects across six sectors as of 15 February 2026, according to the latest portfolio review report.

About 71% of the total portfolio is concentrated in the transport, energy, and water and urban development sectors, which remain the main focus of ADB-supported investments in the country.

The report said Bangladesh's ADB portfolio had steadily expanded from $6.5 billion in 2015 to $13.8 billion in 2023, reflecting strong growth in development financing. However, the pace of expansion slowed after the political unrest in 2024, leading to a gradual decline in the active portfolio through 2025.

In 2025, ADB approved eight new projects worth about $1.67 billion in Bangladesh. Of these approved projects, two have already achieved contract awards covering at least 30% of their loan amounts, indicating early progress in project implementation.

The two-day review meeting is co-chaired by Md Shahriar Kader Siddiky, secretary of Economic Relations Division, Hoe Yun Jeong, country director of ADB's Bangladesh Resident Mission, and the regional head for operations coordination of ADB's South Asia Department. Officials from relevant line ministries as well as executing and implementing agencies are participating in the meeting.

Targets for 2026

The report also outlined several performance targets. The government and ADB aim to achieve 100% of the contract award and disbursement targets in 2026, with $939 million in contract awards and $1.1147 billion in disbursements.

The five-year trend shows that the share of projects facing risks rose to 12% in 2025, the highest level in the past five years. These risks are mainly attributed to weak government coordination, poor project management, and low project readiness. The target for 2026 is to reduce the risk level to 5%.

Procurement performance will also be closely monitored. End-to-end procurement time, a key performance indicator for project implementation, is targeted to be reduced by 10% in 2026 compared to the 2025 level.

The average procurement time for high-value contracts awarded last year was 485 days, highlighting opportunities for efficiency improvements.

Sector-wise data show that the energy and transport sectors recorded the longest procurement times, taking as high as 794 days in some cases.

For low-value contracts, average times gradually declined from 218 days in 2020 to 172 days in 2025, reflecting continued improvement in overall procurement efficiency.

Long procurement timelines in Bangladesh's ADB portfolio are mainly caused by inadequate project preparation, weak project design, poor-quality bid documents, and lengthy government approval processes, the report reveals, suggesting measures such as preparing realistic procurement timelines, engaging experienced consultants, and using advanced procurement.

Sectoral priorities

According to the ADB report, disbursement projections for 2026 indicate that the transport, energy, water, and urban sectors will drive the majority. Together, transport, energy, water, and urban development account for about 71% of the annual disbursement target.

The transport sector projects include the SASEC Dhaka-Northwest Corridor Road Project, the Flood Emergency Project, and the Dhaka-Sylhet Corridor Road Investment Project.

In the energy sector, key projects include the Rupsha 800MW Combined Cycle Power Plant Project, the Bangladesh Power System Enhancement and Efficiency Improvement Project, and the Dhaka Power System Expansion and Strengthening Project, which together account for about 64% of the sector's projected disbursements.

In the water and urban sector, major projects include the Improving Urban Governance and Infrastructure Programme, the Khulna sewerage project, and the Dhaka water supply project.

To optimise its portfolio, ADB's Business Resilience Management (BRM) framework will strengthen monitoring of loans with unutilised funds.

To enhance overall portfolio performance, ADB's local office is undertaking several initiatives, including strengthening portfolio monitoring through regular consultations, supporting capacity development for project implementation, and cleaning up the portfolio through cancellations or the repurposing of unutilised funds.

A growing diesel shortage is threatening the operations of lighterage vessels that transport bulk cargo from ships anchored off Chattogram port to destinations across Bangladesh, raising concerns of disruptions in the country's supply chain.

Industry insiders warn that if the fuel crisis persists, unloading cargo at the port's outer anchorage and transporting goods through inland waterways could be severely affected, potentially triggering shortages in domestic markets ahead of Eid.

A lighterage vessel typically requires between 2,500 and 5,000 litres of diesel per trip, depending on capacity. These vessels usually collect fuel from bunkering tankers, but supplies have become scarce after the government introduced rationing measures amid a broader fuel shortage linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Distributors say the volume of diesel they are receiving from state-run fuel marketing companies is now less than half of the actual demand. As a result, many vessels remain unable to depart even after loading cargo.

Key link in supply chain

Bangladesh's inland waterways play a critical role in transporting imported commodities across the country.

Bulk goods arriving at Chattogram port on large mother vessels are unloaded at the outer anchorage and transferred to smaller lighterage vessels, which then carry the cargo to different river ports nationwide. Around 1,500 lighterage vessels are involved in transporting imported goods from the mother vessels at the outer anchorage of Chattogram port.

Any disruption in this system could affect the flow of essential commodities, potentially causing shortages in markets during the upcoming Eid season and pushing up prices.

Vessel operators struggling

Mohammad Jahangir Alam, owner of ANJ Trading, operates a fleet of 60 vessels, including both owned and chartered ships.

If we send a vessel on a long route, it needs around 5,000 litres at once. Unlike road transport, there are no refuelling stations along waterways. That's why we are avoiding long-distance trips. More than half of our vessels are sitting idle.
Mohammad Jahangir Alam, owner, ANJ Trading

His operations require around 2,05,000 litres of diesel each month. Under a distributor licence from Padma Oil Company, he normally lifts about 70,000 litres of diesel weekly to supply his vessels.

However, he said the company has not supplied any diesel since 3 March.

"For the past few days we have been managing local trips by giving only 400 to 500 litres of diesel to each vessel," Jahangir told TBS.

"If we send a vessel on a long route, it needs around 5,000 litres at once. Unlike road transport, there are no refuelling stations along waterways. That's why we are avoiding long-distance trips. More than half of our vessels are sitting idle."

'Supply cut by 25%'

Padma Oil Company Managing Director Mofizur Rahman said distributors are still receiving diesel supplies, though at a reduced level.

"According to government instructions, we are supplying 25% less than usual," he told TBS.

He added that several fuel shipments have recently arrived.

"One vessel arrived yesterday, another today, and another is expected tomorrow. Fuel supply should return to normal within a few days," he said.

Port cargo handling at risk

Parvez Ahmed, convener of the Bangladesh Water Transport Coordination Cell, said around 73 mother vessels carrying various bulk commodities are currently waiting at the outer anchorage of Chattogram port.

The coordination cell allocates about 100 lighterage vessels daily to transport cargo from these ships to destinations across the country.

"These lighterage vessels require around 4,00,000 to 5,00,000 litres of fuel every day for their operations," he said.

Due to the shortage, many vessels loaded with cargo are now floating in the Karnaphuli River, unable to sail without adequate fuel.

"If the vessels cannot depart, cargo cannot be unloaded from the mother vessels. This could disrupt the supply of food and other essential goods and create instability in the market," Parvez said.

He added that the coordination cell has written to the government requesting uninterrupted fuel supply for lighterage vessels in order to maintain commodity prices, protect the reputation of Chattogram port and keep the national economy functioning smoothly.

Call for urgent action

Sarwar Alam Sagar, president of the Bangladesh Ship Handling and Berth Operator Association, warned that prolonged disruption in waterway cargo transport could collapse the country's supply chain.

"If cargo movement through waterways is disrupted due to the fuel shortage, the supply system could break down and create a humanitarian crisis," he said.

"The government should ensure adequate fuel supply for lighterage vessels to keep the supply chain running."

India today came out with a fresh set of guidelines easing norms for foreign direct investment (FDI) coming from countries sharing land border with it, providing for a 60-day timeline for approval to investments in critical sectors, including electronic capital goods and electronic components.

A meeting of the Indian cabinet presided by Prime Minister Narendra Modi approved the changes in FDI policy for investments from Land Bordering Countries (LBCs), which will help manufacturing in electronic components, capital goods and solar cells, an official statement said this evening (10 March).

Countries that share land borders with India are China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Afghanistan and Myanmar.

The amendments in the FDI policy aim to unlock greater FDI inflows from global funds for startups and deep techs, take forward the agenda of ease of doing business, it said.

The changes in the policy envisage "expeditious approval in 60 days to help companies enter into collaborations to expand manufacturing in India" with access to technology and integration with global supply chains.

In 2020, India had clamped restrictions on foreign companies having shareholders from the LBCs, which required mandatory government approval for investments in India in any sector, in a bid to curb opportunistic takeovers or acquisitions of Indian companies due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

At that time, the Indian government clearance was mandatory for an entity of a country, which shares land border with India or where the beneficial owner of an investment into India is situated in or is a citizen of any such country. Additionally, any transfer of ownership of any existing or future FDI in an entity in India resulting in the beneficial ownership falling within the aforesaid jurisdiction(s) also requires government approval.

The statement noted that the restrictions on cases where LBC investors may have only non-strategic, non-controlling interests were seen as adversely affecting investment flows from investors, including global funds such as PE/VC funds.

It said, "The new guidelines will provide clarity and ease of doing business in India, and facilitate investments which can contribute towards greater FDI inflows, access to new technologies, domestic value addition, expansion of domestic firms and integration with global supply chain."

"This would help in leveraging and enhancing India's competitiveness as a preferred investment and manufacturing destination," according to the statement.

The statement said the existing policy has been reviewed and amended to provide for a definition and criteria for the determination of beneficial ownership (BO) that is widely used by the investing community under the Prevention of Money Laundering Rules, 2005.

The beneficial ownership test will be applied at the level of the investor entity. Investors with non-controlling LBC beneficial ownership of up to 10% would be permitted under the automatic route, subject to applicable sectoral caps, entry routes and attendant conditions.

Under the amended FDI rules, such investments would be subject to the reporting of relevant information/details by the investee entity to the Commerce Ministry. Expedited clearance of investments in specific sectors –

Proposals for LBC investments in specified sectors of manufacturing in capital goods, electronic capital goods, electronic components, polysilicon and ingot-wafer would be processed and decided within 60 days.

The Companies under the Cabinet Secretary may also revise the list of specified sectors.

In these cases, the majority shareholding and control of the Investee entity will have to be with resident Indian citizens and/or resident Indian entities owned and controlled by resident Indian citizens at all times.

China stands at the 23rd position with only a 0.32% share ($2.51 billion) in the total FDI equity inflow reported in India from April 2000 to December 2025.

Relations between New Delhi and Beijing nosedived following the fierce clash between their armies in Galwan Valley across the unresolved Himalayan borders in eastern Ladakh in June 2020 that marked the most serious military conflict between the two sides in decades.

Following the military faceoff, India banned over 200 Chinese mobile apps like TikTok, WeChat, and Alibaba's UC browser.

Bilateral trade between India and China has grown multi-fold with the balance trade heavily tilted in favour of China. In fact, China has emerged the second-largest trading partner of India.

In 2024-25, India's exports to China shrunk 14.5% to $14.25 billion as against $16.66 billion in 2023-24. Imports, however, rose 11.52 per cent in 2024-25 to $113.45 billion against $101.73 billion in 2023-24. The trade deficit was widened to $99.2 billion in 2024-25 from $85 billion in 2023-24.

During April-January 2025-26, India's exports to China rose 38.37% to $15.88 billion, while imports rose 13.82% to $108.18 billion. Trade deficit stood at $02.3 billion.

According to Exim Bank of India data, cumulative inflows of FDI into India from Bangladesh during April 2000- March 2020 amounted to $0.1 million.

Cumulative Foreign Direct Investment from India to Bangladesh has more than doubled from $243.91 million in 2014 to $570.11 million in December 2018. Indian companies have invested in various sectors, including telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, FMCG and automobile sectors in Bangladesh.

During Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's visit in April 2017, 13 agreements worth around $10 billion of Indian investment mainly in power and energy sectors in Bangladesh, were signed.

Billions of dollars have already been spent by the United States on weapons in the war with Iran, making war a highly profitable business for defence contractors.

Last week, stock prices for major US arms-producing companies rose, including Northrop Grumman (up 5%), RTX (up 4.5%) and Lockheed Martin (up 3%).

In 2024, the top 100 defence companies in the world generated more than $679b in revenue, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

European heavyweights such as the UK's BAE Systems, Italy's Leonardo, the trans-European Airbus, France's Thales and Germany's Rheinmetall are among the top 20 companies, with many expanding amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Largest US defence contractors

According to SIPRI's report, 39 US contractors appear on its list of the top 100 defence companies, far exceeding China's eight groups.

The five largest US defence companies are Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and Boeing.

Lockheed Martin, the world's largest defence contractor formed in 1995 through the merger of Lockheed and Martin Marietta, generated $68.4b in revenue in 2024 and manufactures aircraft such as the F-35 as well as missile and space systems.

RTX, created in 2020 after the merger of Raytheon and United Technologies, focuses on missile systems, jet engines and avionics, with $43.6b of its 2024 revenue coming from defence.

Northrop Grumman, formed in 1994 after Northrop acquired Grumman, produces stealth aircraft such as the B-21 Raider and develops space and nuclear modernisation systems, earning $37.9b from defence in 2024.

General Dynamics develops nuclear submarines, battle tanks and armoured vehicles and recorded $33.6b in defence revenue in 2024.

Boeing, founded in 1916, generates revenue from commercial aircraft production as well as defence and space programmes including the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, AH-64 Apache and P-8 Poseidon, with $30.6b coming from defence in 2024.

Israel's major defence firms

According to SIPRI, three Israeli companies appear on the list of the world's top 100 defence companies.

Elbit Systems, Israel's largest defence company, specialises in drones, surveillance systems and battlefield electronics, generating $6.3b from defence in 2024.

Israel Aerospace Industries focuses on missile defence systems, satellites, combat drones and radar technology and earned $5.2b from defence.

Rafael, the developer of Israel's Iron Dome missile defence system, generated $4.7b from defence in 2024.

Defence spending and stock growth

According to SIPRI, global defence spending rose 9.4% in 2024 to reach $2.7 trillion.

NATO members have also pledged to increase their defence budgets from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035, adding hundreds of billions of dollars in annual spending.

To replenish rapidly depleting munitions used in the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, major weapons contractors are investing billions in new orders, responding to rising demand and driving up their stock prices.

From March 2023 to March 2026, RTX recorded the largest stock increase among major US contractors at 110%, followed by Northrop Grumman at 60%, General Dynamics at 57%, Lockheed Martin at 37% and Boeing at 5%.

Oil prices plummeted 7 percent on Tuesday after soaring to a more than three-year high in ​the previous session as US President Donald Trump predicted the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil ‌supplies.

Brent futures were down $7.15, or 7.2 percent, at $91.81 a barrel by 1307 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $6.26, or 6.6 percent, at $88.51 a barrel. Both contracts fell as much as 11 percent earlier in the day.

Trading volumes in Brent dropped to about 328,000 contracts, the lowest amount since February 27, just before the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. Volumes in WTI ​fell to 296,000 contracts, the lowest since February 23.

Oil surged to more than $119 a barrel on Monday to its highest since mid-2022 as supply cuts by Saudi ​Arabia and other producers stoked fears of major disruptions to global supplies.

Prices later retreated after Russian President Vladimir Putin had a ⁠call with Trump and shared proposals aimed at a quick settlement to the war, according to a Kremlin aide, easing concerns about oil supply.

Trump said on Monday in a ​CBS News interview that he thought the war against Iran was "very complete" and Washington was "very far ahead" of his initial four- to five-week estimated time frame.

“Clearly Trump's comments ​about a short-lived war have calmed markets. While there was an overreaction to the upside yesterday, we think there is an overreaction to the downside today," said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, adding that the market was under-appreciating risks at these levels for Brent.

“Murban and Dubai grades are still well above $100 per barrel, so practically nothing much has changed ​in terms of ground realities," he added, referring to benchmark Middle Eastern oil grades.

In response to Trump, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said they would “determine the end ​of the war” and Tehran would not allow “one litre of oil” to be exported from the region if US and Israeli attacks continued, state media reported on Tuesday.

They're too expensive.

Meanwhile, Trump is considering easing ‌oil sanctions ⁠on Russia and releasing emergency crude stockpiles as part of a package of options aimed at curbing spiking prices, according to multiple sources.

“Discussions around easing sanctions on Russian oil, comments from Donald Trump hinting that the conflict could eventually de-escalate, and the possibility of G7 countries tapping strategic oil reserves all pointed to the same message - that oil barrels will somehow continue to reach the market," Priyanka Sachdeva, a Phillip Nova analyst, said in a note.

“Once traders sensed that supply routes could ​still be maintained, the initial 'panic premium' that ​had pushed prices above the $100 mark ⁠yesterday started to fade, and oil prices quickly pulled back."

Saudi Arabia's Aramco, the world's top oil exporter, said on Tuesday there would be "catastrophic consequences" for the world's oil markets if the Iran war continues to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

“Policy measures ​may have limited impact on oil prices unless safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is assured, given the potential ​losses of up ⁠to 12 million bpd over the next two weeks," JPMorgan said in a note.

In the latest disruption to global supplies, Abu Dhabi state oil giant ADNOC has shut its Ruwais refinery, a source said on Tuesday, after a fire broke out at a facility within the complex following a drone strike.

Goldman Sachs said because the situation remains fluid, it ⁠was not ​changing its oil price forecast for Brent at $66 per barrel in the fourth quarter and WTI at $62 ​per barrel.

G7 energy ministers will discuss how to tackle soaring energy prices due to the war in Iran on a call on Tuesday while a group of European Union leaders will do so later ​in the day, officials said.

Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC has approved a proposal to bring US-based B100 Holdings LLC as a strategic investor in its mobile financial services subsidiary mCash Ltd, according to a price sensitive disclosure issued yesterday (8 March).

The decision was taken at the bank's board meeting held yesterday at its head office in Dhaka.

According to the statement, the bank approved the onboarding of B100 Holdings as a strategic partner in mCash Ltd, which operates the bank's mobile financial services platform, subject to compliance with applicable legal and regulatory requirements.

As part of the plan, the paid-up capital of mCash will be increased in phases to Tk500 crore, with Islami Bank maintaining a minimum 51% equity stake in the company. B100 Holdings may acquire up to 48.99% ownership through the subscription of shares, subject to approval from the mCash board and relevant regulatory authorities.

The proposed investment is expected to strengthen the capital base of mCash and support the expansion of digital financial services under its mobile financial services platform.

After months of stability, Bangladesh’s currency has started to lose value against the US dollar as Bangladesh Bank stopped intervening in the market due to the possible impact of the US-Israel war against Iran.

Yesterday, the greenback was traded at a maximum of Tk 122.55 each, up from Tk 122.37 on the previous day.

The weighted average interbank exchange rate stood at Tk 122.49 per US dollar, up from Tk 122.43 a day earlier, according to the latest data from Bangladesh Bank.

The interbank exchange rate was Tk 122.36 last Thursday and Tk 122.33 on Wednesday, the data showed.

Central bank data shows that the weighted average interbank exchange rate against the greenback has continued to weaken since March 2 this year.

Officials of the central bank said the regulator has now stopped intervening in the market due to the possible impact, which is why the value of the taka has started to weaken against the US dollar.

They also noted that fuel prices in the international market have increased sharply, which is likely to raise import costs and lead to volatility in the forex market in the coming days.

Considering that potential impact, Bangladesh Bank halted purchasing US dollars from the market, they added.

Bangladesh Bank purchased more than $5 billion from the foreign exchange market since the beginning of this fiscal year until March 2.

However, between FY21 and FY25, Bangladesh Bank sold more than $25 billion from its foreign exchange reserves to meet import payments for fuel, fertiliser and food.

The new governor of Bangladesh Bank recently hinted that the regulator will provide US dollar support from forex reserves to import fuel if needed, officials said.

Due to Bangladesh Bank’s dollar purchase spree, the country’s foreign exchange reserves have continued to rise.

Forex reserves stood at $34 billion as of March 8 this year, according to Bangladesh Bank data. However, the reserves stood at $29.38 billion as per the IMF calculation.

On Saturday, eight leading economists of the country met the new governor of the central bank to discuss ways to address the possible impact of the Middle East crisis on the economy.

The economists suggested that Bangladesh Bank remain cautious about spending from the country’s foreign exchange reserves as tensions in the Middle East threaten to create fresh economic shocks.

They also warned that rising global fuel prices due to the Middle East crisis could increase the country’s import bills and eventually put pressure on the foreign exchange reserves.

The economists advised the central bank to explore alternative funding sources to settle fuel import payments instead of using the reserves.

A day after a massive bloodbath at the Dhaka bourse, stocks rebounded yesterday as the sell-off largely subsided and buyers dominated the market.

The DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), surged 132 points, or 2.64%, with more than 90% of the traded stocks advancing on the bourse, although turnover fell by 22%, data showed.

On Sunday (8 March), the first trading session of the week, stocks suffered the highest single-day fall in six years as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered panic selling across the market.

The index plunged 231 points, or 4.42%, to close at 5,008, hitting a two-month low and marking the biggest one-day decline since the Covid-19 pandemic era.

Market insiders said Sunday's sell-off was mostly panic driven assuming fuel crisis significantly may hit businesses due to Middle East conflict. After the conflict began, stocks witnessed bearish trends as cautious investors preferred to pull-off funds selling shares.

"Stocks declined significantly in recent trading sessions due to heavy sell-offs. As investors offloaded shares in previous sessions, funds generated from those sales were reinvested in the market, which helped stocks rebound," said the managing director of a brokerage firm.

The port city bourse, Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), settled on a positive territory. The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) and All Share Price Index (CASPI) advanced by 51.9 points and 82.6 points, respectively.

Bank stock save indices

The data showed that stocks began trading on the red pulling DSEX below 5,000 points marks. Six minutes later after starting trades, stock climbed to green as sell-offs reversed into buy domination, and continued till 10.22am with DSEX increasing 100 points.

After that a wave of sell-off again gripped the market, the bank stocks saved the indices as share prices of some large cap stocks including Islami Bank, BRAC Bank, City Bank and Pubali Bank increased.

According to LankaBangla financial portal, the four banks pulled DSEX by 54 points with a total increase of 132 points.

At the DSE, shares of 36 banks listed, but trading continued for 31 banks as shares trading of five Islamic banks suspended as the banks were merged into a one entity namely Sammilito Islami Bank.

On Sunday, the share price of 39 banks increased, only a bank share declined and shares price remained unchanged for a bank.

EBL Securities said, the capital bourse staged a partial rebound following the steep selloff in recent sessions, as bargain hunters turned back to accumulate equities at attractive price points; however, overall investor participation remained subdued amid lingering uncertainties surrounding the ongoing Middle East conflict.

It said, market indices maintained an upbeat trajectory throughout the session, supported by broad-based price appreciation across most scrips. However, cautious investors remained on the sidelines, closely monitoring market direction amid the absence of any visible progress toward a resolution or ceasefire in the ongoing conflict.

Apparently, market turnover decreased by 21.8% to Tk4.2 billion from Tk5.3 billion in the previous session. On the sectoral front, Bank stocks accounted for the highest share of turnover by 25.5%, followed by Pharma by 19.3% and Textile by 8.9%.

Gainers, losers

Islami Bank Bangladesh topped the gainer list hitting upper circuit, a highest single day limit capped by the regulator, by 9.89% to Tk41.10 each at the DSE.

Followed by City Bank by 8.24% to Tk30.2 each, AB Bank by 8.19% to Tk6.6 each, EBL NRB Mutual Fund by 8% to Tk2.7 each, and First Bangladesh Fixed Income Fund by 8% to Tk2.7 each.

While on the losing side, Green Delta Insurance topped the loser list as its shares price fell by 7.10% to Tk52.3 each, followed by Vanguard AML Rupali Bank Balanced Fund by 5.35% to Tk5.3 each, Dulamia Cotton Spinning Mills by 5.32% to Tk112 each, Renwick Jajneswar by 1.93% to Tk521.8 each, and Golden Jubilee Mutual Fund by 1.69% to Tk5.8 each.

Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC has approved a proposal to bring little-known US-based B100 Holdings LLC as a strategic investor in its mobile financial services subsidiary mCash Ltd, aiming to strengthen the platform's capital base and expand its digital financial services.

The decision was taken at a board meeting of Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC held at its head office in Dhaka on Sunday, according to a price-sensitive disclosure issued the same day.

Under the proposal, the New York-based B100 Holdings will join as a strategic partner in mCash Ltd, which operates the bank's mobile financial services platform. The investment will be subject to compliance with legal and regulatory requirements and approvals from relevant authorities.

Following the announcement, Islami Bank's share price rose 9.89% on the Dhaka Stock Exchange yesterday, reaching Tk41.10. The bank's market capitalisation increased by around Tk690 crore to Tk6,617 crore.

According to the disclosure, the paid-up capital of mCash will be increased in phases to Tk500 crore. Islami Bank will retain at least 51% ownership of the subsidiary, while B100 Holdings may acquire up to 48.99% of shares through subscription, subject to approval from the mCash board and regulators.

Under rules set by Bangladesh Bank, commercial banks must hold a minimum 51% stake in mobile financial service providers. Islami Bank said it would comply with the requirement while allowing the foreign investor to hold a maximum of 48.99% of shares.

Based on the proposed capital structure, B100 Holdings could invest nearly Tk245 crore in the company.

Omar Faruk Khan, managing director of Islami Bank, said the proposal originated from the US firm.

"They approached us with the investment proposal and our board has accepted it in principle because they committed to bring funds as needed, potentially from the Middle East," Omar told The Business Standard.

He said the bank would now examine the firm's financial strength and capability before finalising any agreement.

"At this stage, we are still in the initial phase. After reviewing their strength and ability, we will make the final decision regarding the partnership," he added.

Omar also acknowledged that mCash has struggled to secure a strong position in the market since its launch more than a decade ago.

"Despite operating for over ten years, mCash remains in a relatively weak position compared to other mobile financial service providers. Our goal is to develop mCash into a competitive platform similar to bKash, the country's leading MFS provider," he said.

To achieve that goal, the bank plans to increase investment in the platform and bring in a strategic partner capable of supporting long-term expansion.

Limited information about US investor

Public information about B100 Holdings, however, remains limited. According to the New York company registry, the firm was established on 22 December 2025 in New York. Arman Chowdhury is listed as its co-founder and chairperson.

Several stock market analysts contacted by The Business Standard said they were unfamiliar with both the individual and the newly formed investment firm.

Information available online indicates that Arman has been serving as national executive director of the Muslim Ummah of North America since 2021. He is also associated with New York's Baitul Mamur Masjid and Community Center as its president.

According to the company's website, B100 Holdings aims to invest in Bangladesh's economic infrastructure by supporting 100 large business enterprises through institutional capital, governance frameworks, and operational expertise.

The firm describes itself as a principal investor and long-term sponsor that deploys capital on a deal-by-deal basis alongside select institutional partners.

It says this model allows it to focus on long-term value creation without the constraints of traditional fund cycles or forced exits.

Islami Bank launched the mCash service in December 2012 and operated the platform directly through its own infrastructure for more than a decade. In January this year, the bank spun off the service into a separate subsidiary to strengthen governance and attract external investment.

The newly formed mCash Ltd has an authorised capital of Tk1,000 crore and an initial paid-up capital of Tk50 crore.

Iran has agreed to provide Bangladeshi oil ships with safe passage as the Bangladesh government has intensified efforts to maintain a stable fuel supply through multiple strategic measures amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Bangladesh has sought assurances from Iran for the safe passage of its oil and LNG-carrying vessels through the Strait of Hormuz as escalating conflict in the Middle East threatens one of the world's most critical energy shipping routes.

Iran has agreed that Bangladeshi ships will be allowed to pass through the strategic waterway after notifying Iranian authorities before entering the strait, energy officials said, easing immediate concerns over the country's fuel supply.

Meanwhile, a vessel carrying 27,000 tonnes of diesel arrived at Chattogram port from Singapore yesterday, and four more ships carrying 1,20,205 tonnes of fuel are scheduled to arrive at the port later this week, energy officials have said.

They said to meet April's demand, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources has begun the process of importing 3 lakh tonnes of diesel from alternative sources through direct procurement.

An official said Bangladesh is planning direct procurement outside long-term contracts, as deliveries under existing agreements have become uncertain following the war.

Under normal circumstances, the country's daily diesel demand is 12,000 tonnes, but the government is currently supplying 9,000 tonnes per day. If the current supply continues, the five incoming shipments totalling 147,205 tonnes will cover 16 days of national demand.

On Monday morning, Mohammad Arif Sadek, the ministry's public relations officer, confirmed the arrival of a fuel vessel at Chattogram port and said another ship was expected on Monday night.

China and India signal support

India and China have also expressed willingness to assist Bangladesh in supplying fuel. Finance Minister Amir Khasru confirmed seeking cooperation from India and China to ensure energy security, stating:

"Not only India and China, we have approached several countries to secure fuel supplies and maintain communication with them. There is no reason for a fuel crisis."

After a meeting with Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury and Energy Minister Tuku yesterday, the ambassador China Yao Wen confirmed his country's interest in supporting Bangladesh.

After the meeting, Yao Wen said Bangladesh and China will work together to resolve fuel issues, and China is eager to provide fuel assistance.

Option to import more diesel from India

Under an existing agreement between BPC and India's Numaligarh Refinery Limited, the Indian state-owned refinery is scheduled to supply 180,000 tonnes of diesel annually through the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline.

Of this volume, around 120,000 tonnes have already been confirmed, but Bangladesh still has the option to import an additional 60,000 tonnes depending on its demand.

According to BPC officials, the additional supply being explored would mainly cover the last week of March and the entire month of April, as two diesel cargoes scheduled for early March failed to arrive within their delivery windows.

Monir Hossain Chowdhury, Joint Secretary (Operations) of the Energy Division, told TBS that several suppliers have proactively offered to sell fuel to Bangladesh. The BPC will review these offers and forward them to the ministry for approval.

4 more tankers due this week

Port sources said tanker Xiu Chi, carrying 27,204 tonnes of diesel from Singapore, entered Chattogram port yesterday. Shipping agents said four more diesel tankers are scheduled to arrive in the coming days.

Another tanker, Lian Huan Hu, was expected to reach the port last night from Singapore with nearly 30,000 tonnes of diesel. The tanker SPT Themis is scheduled to arrive on Thursday carrying 30,484 tonnes.

Tanker carrying 27,000 tonnes of diesel reaches Ctg Port, 4 more due this week

Two additional vessels – Raffles Samurai and Chang Hang Hong Tu – are expected to reach the port on Saturday, each carrying around 30,000 tonnes of diesel.

Nazrul Islam, managing director of Pride Shipping, the local agent for the four tankers, told TBS that the vessels are expected to arrive within a week according to schedule.

Emergency imports under consideration

Amid supply uncertainty, the government has moved to secure around 300,000 tonnes of diesel from alternative suppliers outside its existing long-term contracts.

Officials said the fuel will be procured through the direct procurement method (DPM) to expedite the process. Discussions are currently underway with several North American suppliers to arrange emergency diesel shipments.

Speaking to TBS on Sunday, Energy Secretary Md Saiful Islam said the government is exploring every available option to ensure adequate diesel supply for April.

"So far we don't have that many problems in March. Keeping the supply uncertainty from long term contracts, we are exploring all sources to ensure around 3 lakh tonnes of diesel under DPM so that there is no disruption in the supply chain," he said.

Regarding when the supply will be confirmed from alternative sources, the energy secretary said, "We are trying to confirm delivery as soon as possible."

The authorities began exploring alternative sourcing options early, anticipating the lengthy approval process required for emergency purchases.

"There is an approval process involving the government's purchase committee. That is why we started the process earlier," Saiful Islam said.

Currently, Bangladesh imports refined petroleum products from eight countries – Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, China, Indonesia, Thailand, India, Oman and Kuwait.

However, officials noted that a significant portion of petrol and octane is produced locally, helping reduce reliance on imports for these products.

Import disrupted

According to a fuel import scenario prepared by BPC on 7 March and presented before Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, the country planned to import 293,000 tonnes of diesel in March.

However, around 60,000 tonnes of diesel cargoes have either been deferred or cancelled, raising concerns about supply stability.

In its briefing to the prime minister, BPC noted that despite having contracts with suppliers from both the Near East and the Far East, geopolitical developments have made fuel supply increasingly uncertain.

In one instance, Singapore-based Vitol Asia cancelled a scheduled octane shipment for March, citing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

According to BPC data as of 7 March, Bangladesh currently has 129,000 tonnes of diesel in reserve, which is enough to meet demand for around 14 days. The country also has 23,000 tonnes of octane, sufficient for about 25 days, and 15,000 tonnes of petrol, enough for roughly 15 days.

In addition, BPC reported 67,000 tonnes of furnace oil in reserve, which could last about 49 days, while Jet A-1 aviation fuel reserves stand at around 60,000 tonnes, also enough for roughly 49 days.

Mobile courts launched nationwide

To ensure uninterrupted fuel supply, the Cabinet Division has instructed all deputy commissioners to operate mobile courts across the country. This directive was issued in a letter from the Cabinet Division on Monday.

District authorities have been directed to take necessary measures accordingly.

Additionally, the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has established central and regional monitoring and control cells to closely track fuel supply, maintain market stability, and resolve complaints promptly.

Special attention is being given to ensure that fuel supply for irrigation during the ongoing Boro season is not disrupted.

The Bangladesh Independent Power Producers' Association (Bippa) has urged the government to clear outstanding power bills owed to private power plants, warning that delays could disrupt fuel imports and lead to load-shedding during the upcoming summer.

The association said power producers are struggling to open letters of credit (LCs) to import fuel due to delayed payments at a time when global energy markets remain volatile amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

The appeal was made at a press conference held in the capital yesterday by Bippa, which represents privately owned power plants in the country. Former Bippa president Imran Karim presented an overview of the current power sector situation at the event.

Bippa said outstanding payments owed to private power producers have reached around Tk14,000 crore, making it increasingly difficult for companies to maintain operations.

Under existing power purchase agreements, electricity bills are supposed to be settled within 30 days, but payments are currently being delayed by 180 to 270 days, according to the association.

Such prolonged delays have created severe financial pressure for power plant operators, making it difficult to procure fuel and sustain electricity generation.

"If the payments are cleared, fuel can still be imported even under difficult global conditions, including the ongoing war situation," Imran said.

To address the issue, Bippa suggested that the government could adopt a similar approach to the one taken by the previous interim administration.

Imran noted that the interim government had earlier issued Tk5,000 crore in bonds to partially clear outstanding payments to power producers.

The move, along with regular bill payments afterward, helped stabilise the sector and ensured uninterrupted electricity supply during last summer, he said.

"As a result, there was no major load-shedding during last year's summer," Imran said, adding that the current government could also issue bonds or allocate funds to settle the dues and avoid a similar crisis this year.

Effective power capacity lower than installed capacity

Although Bangladesh's installed electricity generation capacity exceeds 28,000 megawatts (MW), a large portion of that capacity remains idle due to fuel shortages and other operational constraints, power plant owners noted.

According to Bippa, more than 6,000MW of generation capacity remains unused because of insufficient gas supply, while another 1,626MW is currently offline for maintenance.

In addition, solar power is unavailable at night, and many diesel-fired plants remain shut due to high operating costs.

As a result, the country's effective available capacity during peak demand stands at around 18,627MW, and actual generation could reach about 18,000MW if fuel supplies remain stable, Imran said.

Fuel costs rising faster than electricity tariffs

Imran also pointed out that global fuel price increases have significantly raised electricity generation costs.

According to his analysis, fuel costs for power generation have risen by about 95% over the past six years, while electricity tariffs have not increased at the same pace.

During the same period, operational costs of power plants have increased by 55%, adding further financial pressure on plant operators.

Meanwhile, about 70% of electricity consumption in Bangladesh occurs in residential, commercial, and agricultural sectors, where tariffs have increased by only 54% over the same period.

As a result, higher electricity generation would increase the government's subsidy burden, as production costs continue to rise faster than retail tariffs.

To ease pressure on electricity generation costs, Bippa called on the government to temporarily withdraw import duties on fuel used for power generation.

Specifically, the association proposed removing 34% duty on imported fuel oil and 22% duty on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG).

According to Bippa, such measures could help lower generation costs at a time when global energy prices remain volatile.

Gas shortages limiting power generation

Bippa President David Hasanat also noted that managing electricity demand during the upcoming summer could be challenging due to multiple constraints.

"The situation could become even more complicated due to the ongoing Iran war, which is affecting global fuel markets," he said.

Hasanat added that around 23% of the country's power plants are currently unable to operate due to gas shortages, further straining the electricity system. He noted that increasing gas supply in the short term remains difficult because of infrastructure limitations.

"There is no immediate scope to significantly increase gas supply, and the infrastructure needed to expand imports is also limited," he said.

Fuel reserves may last until early April

According to Imran, oil-based power plants currently have enough fuel reserves to operate until 7-10 April, although the situation may vary across facilities depending on individual fuel stocks.

"To keep these plants operational, it is essential to ensure a steady fuel supply and timely payment of bills," he said.

Responding to questions about reducing generation costs, Imran said operators of furnace-oil-based power plants have already made concessions.

He noted that the interim government had reduced the service charge on fuel imports from 9% to 5%, which plant owners accepted.

He also said power producers are not charging interest on overdue payments, despite bills remaining unpaid for up to nine months.

"In contrast, some suppliers in other sectors shut down operations due to unpaid bills, but private power plants have continued operating despite the outstanding dues," he said.

Despite the challenges, Hasanat said private power producers remain committed to supporting the government in maintaining the electricity supply.

"We are ready to support the government in maintaining a stable electricity supply. After all, if the country survives, we all will survive," he said.