South Korea's March exports probably rose at the strongest pace in nearly five years on a boom in chip demand fuelled by artificial intelligence investment, although the Iran war was set to drive up imports and inflation, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy, a bellwether for global trade, were projected to have risen 44.9% from a year earlier, according to a median forecast of 11 economists.

That would be faster than the 28.7% rise in February and the strongest since May 2021. It would also mark the 10th consecutive month of year-on-year gains.

"Semiconductor prices are continuing to rise sharply on robust demand for memory chips," said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities, expecting this year's trade surpluses at record levels.

In the first 20 days of this month, exports rose 50.4%, as semiconductor sales surged 163.9%. Shipments to the US and China rose 57.8% and 69.0%, respectively, while those to the European Union were up 6.6%.

"However, due to the impact of high oil prices, import growth will also be higher than previously projected," said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities. "It is expected that there will be some disruption to shipments to the Middle East."

In Monday's monthly survey, imports were forecast to have risen 18.0% in March from a year earlier, after growing 7.5% in February. That would mark the biggest jump since September 2022.

The median forecast for the country's monthly trade balance stood at $21.2 billion, wider than $15.4 billion in the previous month and a record high.

Consumer inflation probably accelerated in March to 2.4%, the fastest pace in four months. Inflation was 2.0% in February.

South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for March on Wednesday, 1 April, at 9 am (0000 GMT).

Iran’s annual inflation rate rose to 50.6 percent by mid-March, up three percentage points from the previous month, the country’s official statistics centre said on Sunday.

“The inflation rate for the twelve months ending in Esfand (from February 20 to March 20) reached 50.6 percent,”the centre said in a statement carried by the official IRNA news agency.

The rate had stood at 47.5 percent in the previous month, covering the period from January 21 to February 19.

The rise in prices comes with Iran at war with the United States and Israel since February 28, when strikes that killed the country’s supreme leader triggered a conflict that has since spread across the Middle East.

On March 20, Iran marked the start of the Nowruz holidays, the Persian New Year.

More than 1,300 ongoing projects approved by the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) under previous governments are now under review, Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has said.

He made the remarks while responding to a question during the question-and-answer session of the first sitting of the 13th Jatiya Sangsad this afternoon (30 March).

The minister said around 500 of these projects have made less than 10% progress so far.

"Many of the projects involve concerns of waste and corruption, which is why they have been brought under review," he said.

The projects currently being undertaken aim to strengthen the rural economy, he added.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman has said he expects to receive funds from the finance ministry in July this year to liquidate six non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs).

He made the remarks at a meeting with senior journalists at the central bank on Sunday. "We expect that the funds required to liquidate the six financial institutions will be received from the finance ministry in July this year," he said.

A senior central bank official told TBS, "The finance division has informed us that the money will be released in two phases. In the first phase, Tk2,600 crore will be provided. Then, by June, another Tk3,000 crore will be released in the second phase."

He added, "As soon as we receive the first tranche, we will appoint administrators to the institutions concerned. Their primary task will be to repay depositors in the private sector. We will first settle individual depositors' funds and then apply to the court for liquidation of the institutions."

Earlier, on 27 January, the Bangladesh Bank board decided to liquidate six institutions. In the same meeting, three institutions were given three to six months' time.

The six NBFIs are FAS Finance, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, Aviva Finance, People's Leasing, and International Leasing.

The three institutions given time are Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company, GSP Finance Company, and Prime Finance and Investment Limited.

Currently, there are 35 non-bank financial institutions in the country, of which 20 have been identified as distressed by the central bank.

These 20 institutions have total loans amounting to Tk25,808 crore, of which Tk21,462 crore – about 83.16% – are defaulted. In contrast, the value of collateral stands at only Tk6,899 crore.

On the other hand, the 15 relatively healthy institutions have a default loan rate of just 7.31%. Last year, they made a profit of Tk1,465 crore and have a capital surplus of Tk6,189 crore.

Deposits in the 20 troubled institutions total Tk22,127 crore, of which net individual deposits amount to around Tk4,971 crore. The central bank believes that this amount may be required initially to support the liquidation and restructuring process.

The dollar was near a 10‑month high on Monday and heading for its biggest monthly gain since last July ​as mixed signals from Iran and the United States dimmed hopes of a possible quick end to the ‌Middle East conflict.

US President Donald Trump said that Iran's new leaders have been "very reasonable", as more US troops arrived in the region and Tehran warned it will not accept humiliation.

The yen hovered near the key 160 per‑dollar level, after hitting its weakest since July 2024 when Tokyo last intervened to shore up the currency, while ​the euro found some support from expectations of European Central Bank rate hikes.

Markets have been rattled this month after the Iran conflict effectively ​shut the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil and gas flows, driving Brent ⁠crude toward a record monthly rise.

The dollar has benefited from its safe‑haven status since early March, with higher oil prices hurting Japan ​and the euro zone but insulating the United States as a net crude exporter.

The US dollar index was roughly unchanged at 100.19. It ​hit 100.54 in mid-March, its highest level since May 2025, and was on track for its biggest monthly rise since July 2025.

Barclays said dollar sentiment was approaching "max bullish" levels on its index, according to traditional gauges including growth proxies, rate differentials and beta indicators.

"The playbook is to sell rallies in risk and ​maintain volatility hedges," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

Markets will closely watch US jobs data later in the week, which could ​affect expectations for the Federal Reserve policy path.

"In the eye of the storm, this week delivers a crucial run of US labour market data," said ‌Bob Savage, ⁠head of markets macro strategy at BNY.

"Given the weak February jobs report and a month of conflict in the Middle East, we’re keen to learn how the jobs situation has responded," he added.

Foreign aid disbursement to Bangladesh fell by 26 percent year-on-year during the July-February period of the current 2025-26 fiscal year, according to the Economic Relations Division (ERD).

Development partners and international lending agencies released $3.05 billion in loans and grants during this eight-month window, the ERD said in a report published on Monday..

This marks a sharp decline from the $4.13 billion disbursed during the same period in the previous fiscal year.

While the inflow of funds slowed, the burden of repayment continued to climb.

Between July and February, the government paid $2.90 billion in principal and interest on existing foreign debts.

In contrast, debt servicing stood at $2.64 billion during the corresponding months of the last fiscal year.

Economists and ERD officials attribute the slowdown to lingering economic instability following the political transition in 2024.

Development organisation Sajida Foundation has got regulatory approval to raise Tk158.5 crore through a non-convertible, unsecured zero-coupon bond aimed at expanding financial inclusion and strengthening women-led enterprises and SME financing across Bangladesh.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission approved this in a meeting held in Dhaka today (30 March).

The proposed instrument, titled "Sajida Orange Zero-Coupon Bond," is designed as a social impact financing tool to support long-term development initiatives. The bond will be issued through private placement and is intended to channel funds into women-focused economic empowerment programmes.

Earlier, Sajida Foundation raised Tk198 crore through a zero-coupon bond in 2024 and Tk100 crore through a green zero-coupon bond in 2021, reflecting its gradual shift towards capital market-based financing to reduce donor dependency and scale up development activities.

Zahida Fizza Kabir, chief executive officer (CEO) of Sajida Foundation, told The Business Standard, "The Orange bond is a vital tool that allows us to scale our impact by mobilising domestic capital to meet the essential needs of underserved women in Bangladesh."

He said, "By focusing on SME financing, secure housing, and food security, we are not just providing financial aid, we are investing in the resilience and leadership of women who are the backbone of our communities."

Zahida further said, "This is a watershed moment for Bangladesh's capital market. The Orange bond proves that purpose and profit are not in conflict; rather, they are complementary. The BSEC's approval signals that our market is ready to compete globally in sustainable finance, and we are proud to have pioneered this journey alongside Sajida Foundation."

Under the proposed structure, BRAC EPL Investments Limited will act as the issue manager, while DBH Finance PLC will serve as a trustee. The issuance will require approval from the BSEC and a no-objection certificate from the Microcredit Regulatory Authority.

The proceeds will be deployed under "eligible orange projects," focusing on women's empowerment, SME development, employment generation, agriculture, food security, and housing. A key priority is expanding access to affordable credit for women entrepreneurs, particularly in rural and underserved communities.

According to the allocation plan, around 32% of the funds will be directed to SME financing and employment generation, 20% to housing-related initiatives, and approximately 40% to agriculture and food security projects. The remaining portion will be used for microfinance operations, programme implementation, and technology-driven financial inclusion initiatives.

The bond is structured as a zero-coupon instrument, meaning investors will not receive periodic interest payments. Instead, they will purchase the bond at a discounted price and receive the full face value at maturity. The total issue size is Tk158.5 crore, while the indicative present value, based on an 11.5% discount rate, is estimated at around Tk127.99 crore.

Each bond carries a face value of Tk3,33,333, with a total of 4,755 bonds to be issued. Investors will have the option to choose tenors of one, two, or three years, with expected yields ranging between 7% and 11.5%, depending on market conditions.

The instrument will be listed on the Alternative Trading Board of the stock exchange, though secondary market liquidity is expected to remain limited. The repayment structure is designed on an equal annual basis, with portions of the bond redeemed each year to manage cash flow efficiently.

Sajida Foundation has received a long-term credit rating of AA+ and a short-term rating of ST-2 from Emerging Credit Rating Limited, reflecting a strong capacity to meet financial obligations and a stable outlook. However, the bond remains unsecured and carries no collateral backing.

To mitigate risk, the structure includes a rating-trigger mechanism. If the credit rating falls below investment grade (below BBB or ST-3), an additional premium of 0.25% to 1% will be added to the discount rate, offering partial protection to investors.

The bond does not include an early redemption option, meaning investors must hold it until maturity. In case of delayed payments, the issuer will be required to pay an additional 2% annual penalty on overdue amounts.

Founded in 1987, Sajida Foundation began as a privately funded family charity and has since evolved into one of Bangladesh's leading development organisations. It works across microfinance, healthcare, education, and social protection programmes, currently operating in 36 districts and reaching over 60 lakh people.

The organisation also maintains a strong financial base, including a 51% ownership stake in Renata Limited, a listed pharmaceutical company whose dividends significantly support its financial sustainability. In addition, Sajida Foundation collaborates with national and international development partners.

Market analysts note that the issuance reflects a broader shift in Bangladesh's development financing landscape, where non-government organisations are increasingly accessing capital markets to diversify funding sources. While the bond offers attractive returns and strong social impact potential, experts caution that its unsecured nature and limited liquidity may pose risks for conservative investors.

The Sajida Orange Zero-Coupon Bond represents a significant step towards integrating capital market financing with social development objectives, particularly in advancing women's economic empowerment and inclusive growth in Bangladesh, say analysts.

Foreign investors have continued withdrawing funds from Bangladesh's equity market over the past nine months through February this year amid persistent geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties.

Political stability following the Bangladesh Nationalist Party's landslide victory in the February polls has failed to attract foreign investment, as intensifying conflict in the Middle East poses fresh economic challenges.

Md Akramul Alam, head of research at Royal Capital, said overall economic activity remained sluggish amid continued uncertainty, while the profitability of major listed companies stayed subdued due to high input costs.

"Persistent macroeconomic uncertainties and ongoing geopolitical tensions discouraged overseas investors from making fresh investments in stocks," he said.

Moreover, private sector credit growth fell to a historic low of 6.03 per cent in January, reflecting weak business confidence and tighter lending conditions, he added.

The ongoing US-Israel war involving Iran has already triggered volatility in global oil and gas prices, raising concerns about inflation and broader economic spillovers in Bangladesh.

"This has dampened the prospect of a sharp recovery in private sector credit demand and the much-needed spike in fresh investment," Mr Alam noted.

He also cited a confidence crisis, a high-value dollar against the local currency, and vulnerabilities in the banking sector as key deterrents to foreign investment.

Foreign investors typically seek a stable, predictable, and long-term policy environment under an elected government to ensure the safety of their investments with good returns.

The newly elected government has yet to outline a clear economic roadmap, while the intensifying Middle East conflict has added to global economic tension.

Ahsanur Rahman, chief executive officer of BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage, said foreign investors are seeking greater clarity. "They want more information and explanations," he told The Financial Express in a recent interview.

A limited number of investable securities and frequent policy changes have also discouraged foreigners from keeping funds in the Bangladesh equity market. The market has not seen any new listings for more than two years.

The impact on stocks is palpable. Foreign investors purchased shares worth Tk 18.25 billion in 2025 against sell-offs of Tk 20.95 billion; outflow outweighed inflow, according to data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

When it comes to investing in stocks in Bangladesh, foreigners usually prefer multinational companies. Currently, they are not interested in putting their money into these companies either, owing to lower-than-expected earnings in recent quarters.

Most multinational companies saw their profits decline in the nine months through September 2025 compared to the same period last year, largely due to high finance costs amid political uncertainty.

Grameenphone, the largest stock in terms of market capitalisation, reported its lowest annual profit of Tk 29.6 billion in 2025 in eight years, largely driven by cost pressures and a high tax burden.

What is more, GP projected a year-on-year decline in its financial performance for the first quarter of 2026, citing mounting pressures from global geopolitical tensions and domestic economic challenges.

Subsequently, foreign stakes in GP fell to 0.60 per cent in February this year from 0.98 per cent in June last year.

British American Tobacco (BAT) Bangladesh's profit also nosedived to Tk 5.84 billion in 2025, the lowest since its listing, due to lower sales, higher excise duty, and one-off costs for the Dhaka factory closure.

As a result, BAT's foreign stake dropped from 3.43 per cent to 3.24 per cent between June last year and February this year.

Olympic Industries experienced a similar trend. Its foreign stake fell to 30.26 per cent in February this year from 34.21 per cent in June last year.

Foreign shareholding in DBH Finance also dropped from 3.73 per cent to 0.44 per cent in the nine months through February this year.

However, BRAC Bank experienced a rise in foreign stakes from 33.80 per cent to 36.72 per cent during the period, while it reported record profits.

BRAC Bank's consolidated profit stood at Tk 15.36 billion for January-September 2025, surpassing its previous year's record annual profit.

Along with the record profit, BRAC Bank provided capital-gain opportunities in the secondary market, as its stock surged 78 per cent between June last year and February this year.

According to Akramul Alam, foreign investors are concerned about the high value of the dollar against the local currency.

Although the foreign exchange market has stabilised in recent months due to higher dollar inflows, supported by strong remittance and export earnings, the taka-dollar exchange rate remains as high as before.

"When the local currency weakens, foreign investors incur losses as the value of their assets falls even when share prices remain unchanged," Mr Alam said.

He also noted that many global fund managers have, in the meantime, rebalanced their portfolios, while others have shifted to gold to secure their investments instead of investing in equities.

"Foreign investors are closely monitoring Bangladesh. Portfolio investment may pick up again if geopolitical tensions ease," he added.

Overseas credit card spending by Bangladeshis declined by 5.74%, falling to Tk463 crore in January from Tk491.2 crore the previous month, according to the latest report of the Bangladesh Bank.

However, Bangladeshis spent the highest amount using credit cards in Thailand in January 2026, totalling Tk69.4 crore, reveals it.

The central bank's report titled "An Overview of Card Usage Patterns Within and Outside Bangladesh" showed that spending in Thailand increased from Tk64.9 crore in December.

After Thailand, the United States was the second most popular destination, where spending stood at Tk67.5 crore in January, slightly down from Tk68.2 crore in December.

The United Kingdom ranked third with Tk38.4 crore in spending, also decreasing from Tk44.4 crore a month earlier.

Spending in Singapore rose slightly to Tk38.3 crore while expenses in India dropped significantly to Tk28.5 crore from Tk35.1 crore in December.

According to the report, India had been the top destination for Bangladeshi credit card spending until August 2024. However, stricter visa policies have reduced travel to India, shifting spending to other countries.

The report also showed debit card usage abroad, with the UK, US, China and India topping the list.

Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry is facing mounting pressure as the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran disrupts global supply chains, threatening the availability of raw materials, pushing up freight costs and raising concerns over production stability.

The issue was highlighted at the inaugural session of the 17th Asia Pharma Expo 2026 and Asia Lab Expo 2026, held at the Bangladesh-China Friendship Exhibition Center in Dhaka’s Purbachal yesterday.

Health Minister Sardar Md Sakhawat Hossain, who inaugurated the three-day exposition as the chief guest, said the government is closely monitoring the evolving situation and stressed that ensuring access to quality medicines remains a top priority.

He also reiterated a zero-tolerance stance on corruption and irregularities in the sector.

Industry leaders said the Gulf region unrest has already started to affect the import of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and other essential inputs, many of which rely on complex shipping routes through the Middle East.

“The war has disrupted logistics, increased freight costs and caused shipment delays,” said Abdul Muktadir, president of the Bangladesh Association of Pharmaceutical Industries (BAPI).

“Rerouting of sea and air cargo is making imports more expensive and unpredictable.”

The disruption is particularly significant for Bangladesh, which remains heavily dependent on imported raw materials despite its strong domestic manufacturing base. Prolonged instability could drive up production costs and put pressure on medicine prices in the coming months, industry insiders said.

According to BAPI, the industry now meets nearly 98 percent of domestic demand and exports medicines to more than 120 countries, reflecting steady expansion over the past decade.

Bangladesh currently exports around $300 million worth of medicines annually and is emerging as a growing player in the global pharmaceutical market.

However, sustaining this momentum will depend on the sector’s ability to navigate external shocks and ensure an uninterrupted supply of inputs.

Muktadir stressed the urgency of accelerating the development of a domestic API industry to reduce reliance on imports.

“The current situation highlights our vulnerability. Policy support is essential to strengthen local capacity,” he said.

He warned that if the conflict persists, rising freight costs and supply uncertainties could erode profit margins and disrupt production cycles, with smaller manufacturers likely to face greater pressure.

Despite the challenges, Bangladesh has so far managed to keep medicine prices relatively lower than in neighbouring countries, supported by strong local production and regulatory oversight, he added.

Md Shameem Haidar, director general of the Directorate General of Drug Administration, said the industry continues to maintain quality and effectiveness, although global disruptions pose new risks.

Industry insiders estimate the market size has already exceeded $3.5 billion, which could surpass $6 billion by 2026, driven by annual growth of 15 to 18 percent.

However, they cautioned that geopolitical tensions could test the sector’s resilience in the near term.

Bank Asia PLC, a listed private bank, is set to acquire the Bangladesh operations of Bank Alfalah in a deal valued at Tk 580 crore, equivalent to approximately $47.5 million.

According to a disclosure published by Bank Alfalah at the Pakistan Stock Exchange, the decision was approved by 96.5 percent of its shareholders at the annual general meeting held on March 26.

The acquisition is contingent upon approval from the Bangladesh Bank, the State Bank of Pakistan, and other relevant regulatory bodies, as well as consent from Bank Asia’s shareholders. To this end, Bank Asia will hold an extraordinary general meeting on April 12.

In May last year, Bank Asia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Bank Alfalah to acquire its Bangladesh operations, subject to regulatory approval and completion of legal formalities.

The sale process began in April last year. Legal formalities for the transfer of assets and liabilities are still pending, while core banking system migration must also be aligned.

The audit and valuation of Bank Alfalah’s Bangladesh operations were conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Bangladesh, a UK-based multinational tax, audit, and consulting firm.

Bank Asia, which began its journey in 1999, is a pioneer in agent banking services in Bangladesh. If the acquisition is completed, it will be the third such takeover by Bank Asia in its 26 years of operation.

In 2001, the bank acquired the operations of the Canada-based Bank of Nova Scotia in Dhaka -- the first of its kind in Bangladesh’s banking history, according to Bank Asia’s website. It later took over the Bangladesh operations of Muslim Commercial Bank Ltd, a renowned Pakistani bank.

Bank Alfalah is incorporated in Pakistan, with its main capital base coming from Abu Dhabi Investment Funds. Over 51 percent of its equity is held by the Abu Dhabi Royal Family. The bank began operations in Bangladesh in 2005 and currently has seven branches in the country.

Gold demand in India saw a slight ‌uptick this week as softer bullion prices attracted some buyers, though many remained cautious and held off for further price drop, while premiums in China narrowed as physical demand slowed.

Bullion dealers in India offered discounts of up to $61 ​per ounce over official domestic gold prices this week, down from as much as $75 last ​week. These prices include 6 percent import duty and 3 percent sales tax.

Meanwhile, spot gold experienced volatile trading, flitting between $4,100 and $4,600 per ounce. Prices briefly touched a four-month low of $4,097.99 ​on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and growing expectations of hawkish US monetary policy.

“Falling prices are ​helping revive interest in gold. However, prices remain well above levels seen last year, and many buyers are postponing purchases in hopes of a bigger fall,” a Kolkata-based jeweller said.

Gold prices in India were trading around 141,000 rupees ​per 10 grams on Friday, after rising to 169,880 rupees earlier this month. Volatility in the rupee ​and global prices left jewellers sidelined, with many waiting until the financial year-end to make fresh purchases, said a ‌Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank.

In Singapore , gold was sold at prices ranging from a discount of $0.50 to premiums of $3.50 an ounce.

Singapore set out plans on Friday to turn the city state into a gold trading hub for the whole of Asia, with regulators and industry players working together to strengthen the ​market’s trading, clearing and ​storage infrastructure.

In top consumer ⁠China, bullion traded at premiums of $14-$18 an ounce over global benchmark prices this week, narrowing from a $10-$22 premium last week.

“Physical demand has cooled, reflected in lower ​premiums, but the market remains underpinned by central bank buying and quota ​restrictions,” said ⁠Bernard Sin, regional director of Greater China at MKS PAMP, adding that the unresolved Middle East conflict has tarnished gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset.

“China’s divergence is clear: while global headwinds weigh on gold, domestic ⁠resilience persists, ​sustained by policy, cultural demand, and structural supply constraints.”

In ​Hong Kong, physical gold traded at par to premiums of $1.90, while in Japan , gold was sold at par with spot prices.

Two liquefied petroleum gas tankers, BW Elm and BW Tyr, are crossing the ​Strait of Hormuz bound for India, according to ‌ship tracking data from LSEG and Kpler.

The US-Israeli war against Iran has all but halted shipping through the strait, but Iran ​said this week that "non-hostile vessels" may transit the waterway ​if they coordinate with Iranian authorities.

The two India-flagged ⁠vessels have crossed the Gulf area and are in ​the eastern Strait of Hormuz, the data showed.

India is ​gradually moving its stranded LPG cargoes out from the strait, with four LPG tankers moved so far - Shivalik, Nanda Devi, Pine Gas, and Jag ​Vasant.

As of Friday, 20 Indian-flagged ships including five ​LPG carriers were stranded in the Gulf, Rajesh Kumar Sinha, special ‌secretary ⁠in the federal shipping ministry, said.

LPG carriers Jag Vikram, Green Asha and Green Sanvi are still in the western Strait of Hormuz, LSEG data show.

India, the world's second-largest ​LPG importer, ​is battling its worst ⁠gas crisis in decades, with the government cutting supplies for industries to shield ​households from any shortage of cooking gas.

The country ​consumed ⁠33.15 million metric tons of LPG, or cooking gas, last year, with imports accounting for about 60 percent of demand. ⁠About ​90 percent of those imports came ​from the Middle East.

India is also loading LPG onto its empty vessels stranded ​in the Gulf.

Stocks at the Dhaka bourse declined further today (29 March) as investor sentiment weakened amid the escalating US-Israeli war on Iran.

Since the war began on 28 February, most trading sessions have witnessed sell-offs, dragging down share prices and overall market capitalisation, although a brief rebound was recorded in the first session after the Eid holiday on 25 March when the benchmark index gained 31 points.

Yesterday, the DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, fell by 44 points to close at 5,272, as investors adopted a cautious stance, leading to declines in 63% of traded stocks.

Besides that, DSES, the Shariah index declined 7 points to 1,066, and DS30, the blue-chip index, fell 21 points to 1,998.

Despite cautious sentiment in the market, turnover on the DSE surged 7% to Tk646 crore, while market capitalisation – the total value of companies' outstanding shares – dropped by Tk3,268 crore to Tk6.95 lakh crore.

Of the traded stocks, 114 advanced, 250 declined and 30 remained unchanged.

EBL Securities, in its daily market commentary, said the capital bourse failed to extend the recovery momentum as investors continued their cautious stance amid lingering uncertainties stemming from the Middle East conflict, triggering a broad-based sell-off across the trading board.

"The market opened on a dismal note as selling pressure remained predominant from the opening bell. Despite an attempt for partial recovery from the initial plunge, the market largely remained under sustained downward pressure throughout the session, with most scrips closing in negative territory," it said.

On the sectoral front, the Pharmaceutical and the Chemical sectors issues exerted the highest by 17.6% in total turnover, followed by the Engineering sector 12.9% and the Bank 9.9%.

Sectors displayed mixed returns, out of which the Paper, the Ceramic and the Mutual Fund exhibited the most positive returns on the bourse.

Bangladesh Autocars topped the gainer chart with its share price surging by 6.91% to Tk185.1 each, followed by BD Thai Foods by 9.30% to Tk18.8 each, PHP Mutual Fund One by 9.09% to Tk3.6 each, Techno Drugs by 8.91% to Tk33 each and IFIC First Mutual Fund by 8.33% to Tk3.9 each.

While on the loser list, Prime Textile was at the top as its share price fell 6.86% to Tk19 each, followed by Sea Pearl Beach Resorts by 5.14% to Tk38.7 each, Orion Infusion by 4.61% to Tk343 each, ICB Agrani First Mutual Fund by 4.34% to Tk6.6 each, and Phoenix Finance by 4.25% to Tk4.5 each.

The port city bourse, Chittagong Stock Exchange, also settled in a negative zone. The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) and All Share Price Index (CASPI) lost 165.4 points and 245.9 points, respectively.

The country’s merchandised shipments of processed foods and agricultural products to Gulf nations are facing a serious shock from the war in the Middle East, with freight charges soaring fourfold and new orders plunging.

Before the US and Israel launched the war on Iran on February 28, sending a container of processed foods cost around $1,500. Manufacturers say rerouting has now pushed the price to roughly $6,500.

“Besides, the volume of orders from Middle Eastern markets has declined by around 40 percent compared to pre-war levels,” said Ahsan Khan Chowdhury, chairman and chief executive officer of PRAN-RFL Group.

Bangladesh exports a wide range of products to the Gulf, including spices, biscuits, puffed rice, chanachur, noodles, mustard oil, beverages and other snacks. The main customers are Bangladeshi migrant workers in the region and members of the diaspora.

Official data puts the size of the market at more than $100 million. Major destinations include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.

Chowdhury, the CEO of PRAN-RFL Group, one of the largest food and beverage brands in Bangladesh, said shipments to Middle Eastern countries were previously routed through five to six ports.

“But after the Strait of Hormuz was closed and other ports came under retaliatory attacks, exporters were left with only Jeddah port operational,” he said. “This pressure on the Saudi Arabian port on the Red Sea has largely contributed to the rise in freight charges.”

Apart from these issues, he added that sending products to Middle Eastern markets now takes longer.

“Although factory production has not yet been affected, if the current situation persists, a reduction in production will likely become unavoidable in the near future,” he commented.

Rezaul Hoque Khondaker, manager for international marketing at local food processor Bombay Sweets and Company Limited, said the company suspended Middle East orders and halted production in late February, anticipating further escalation after the attack on Iran.

“At that time, only one shipment had already left Chattogram via Colombo for Qatar, and recalling it was not viable,” he said. “Despite shrinking margins, we proceeded with delivery to minimise losses and sought partial compensation from importers.”

Sayedul Azhar Sarwar, head of business at Danish Foods Ltd, a concern of Partex Star Group, said rising freight rates have introduced a new “war cost” that is significantly increasing overall expenses.

“Importers are increasingly reluctant to accept deliveries as higher costs erode competitiveness, particularly for goods already in transit,” he said.

He estimated that overall costs have risen by at least 15 percent, prompting many buyers to delay orders in the hope of more stable conditions.

He also said that job uncertainty among migrant workers is beginning to affect consumption, which could dampen demand for non-essential food items.

Luthful Kabir Shaheen, director for business development at City Group, said shipment schedules had become increasingly unpredictable, causing delays not only in the Middle East but also in Europe and the US, with transit times extending by around 10 days.

He, however, said production remains broadly stable, with companies adapting by routing goods through alternative Gulf hubs such as Dubai. “Despite steady demand for essential food items, the export process has become more complex, requiring greater operational flexibility.”

Similar to City Group, Sameera Rahman, head of export at Meghna Group of Industries, said their output for Middle Eastern markets remains steady.

“Our manufacturing operations are fully functional, supported by coordinated supply chains and careful resource planning,” she said. “But logistics remain under strain.”

She added that many shipping lines have paused new bookings and cancelled existing ones, disrupting dispatch schedules, while rising risk premiums were further driving up costs.

“War risk surcharges have nearly doubled freight costs on some routes, including shipments to Oman,” added Rahman.

According to the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), processed food exports to the Middle East stand at $40-$45 million annually, while the broader agricultural sector earned $65.24 million in the fiscal year 2024-25.

Sixty-six World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries, representing 70 percent of global trade, have adopted a pathway to bring into force electronic commerce (e-Commerce) agreement through interim arrangements.

The adoption to bring the agreement into force via interim arrangements took place on March 28 at the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14) in Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Bangladesh has yet to officially clarify its stance, with Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir saying nations attending the summit offered varying opinions. While some favoured a four-year extension of the moratorium and others two years, very few sought a permanent moratorium.

Bangladesh has not spoken on this issue yet, he added.

Under the interim mechanism, participating members will begin applying the rules among themselves once 45 of the 66 signatories ratify the deal.

“This step marks a significant milestone. With digital transactions accounting for over 60 percent of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), there is an urgent need to implement global digital trade rules that allow businesses and consumers to seize the benefits of digital trade,” the WTO said in a joint statement.

The agreement encourages legal frameworks that recognise electronic transactions and treat electronic and paper-based information as legal equivalents.

It also seeks to establish common principles for the interoperability of e-invoicing and the legal recognition of electronic transferable records, such as bills of lading and promissory notes.

Data from the WTO and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development suggest that failing to implement the agreement leaves approximately $159 billion worth of trade “on the table” annually. If implemented globally, the pact could boost global GDP by $8.7 trillion by 2040.

Major economies that have accepted the interim agreement include Singapore, Australia, Japan, the European Union, Canada, and China.

“By moving forward with the E-Commerce Agreement, participating economies are helping to establish a shared regulatory framework that can lower costs and unlock new opportunities,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in the statement.

The agreement is not applicable to Bangladesh as the country remains in favour of continuing the long-standing moratorium on imposing customs duties on electronic transmissions, said Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), who is attending the conference.

“It means only the signatory countries will apply the agreement among themselves. Non-signatory countries like Bangladesh will continue to enjoy the moratorium until the agreement is adopted by the majority of WTO members,” he said.

Rahman said Bangladesh should cautiously observe the development before making a decision, adding that with the massive digitalisation of global trade, a significant volume of transactions now occurs digitally.

As a major importer and exporter of commodities and services, the withdrawal of the e-commerce moratorium could increase business costs for Bangladesh, he said.

The issue of electronic commerce was first raised at the Second Ministerial Conference in 1998, where members adopted a declaration to not impose tariffs on digital transmissions. At the 13th Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi in 2024, members had agreed to maintain the moratorium until MC14 or March 31, 2026.

Despite unrest across the Middle East, Bangladeshi expatriates have sent $3.33 billion to the country in the first 28 days of March, marking the highest single-month remittance in the nation's history.

The previous record was $3.29 billion in March 2025, Bangladesh Bank spokesperson and Executive Director Arief Hossain Khan told reporters today (29 March).

Speaking to The Business Standard, a treasury head at a private bank noted that remittance typically rises during the Eid period.

He added that ongoing instability in the Middle East, particularly due to the Iran conflict, has prompted many expatriates to send money home early to support their families.

Remittance inflows have been increasing since the fall of the previous Awami League government in August 2024, a trend that continues. Bangladesh Bank officials said the central bank is taking strict measures to prevent money laundering.

Various initiatives are also in place to stop fund diversion under the guise of loans. As a result, the decline in informal money transfers (hundi) has boosted remittance through legal channels.

The final investment size and financial implications of the agreement between Runner Automobiles PLC and Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD have yet to be determined, the company said in a disclosure to investors.

In response to a query from the Dhaka Stock Exchange, Runner Automobiles stated that the Master Supply and Manufacturing Agreement (MSMA) currently serves as a preliminary framework to assess the project's feasibility, implementation timeline and expected financial outcomes.

The company's share price closed at Tk40.30 on the Dhaka bourse today (29 March).

Earlier, Runner informed the DSE that it would assemble and supply electric vehicles of BYD, following the signing of an agreement with BYD Auto Industry Company.

The board of directors approved the MSMA on 20 March, prompting the DSE to seek further clarification, including details of the agreement and its potential financial impact.

In its explanation, Runner said the MSMA outlines a structural framework for vehicle production under the Completely Knocked Down (CKD) model, under which components will be imported and assembled locally.

The company noted that the agreement is being used to evaluate key aspects of the project, including investment size, production capacity, supply chain requirements, market potential, and projected revenues and costs.

However, it emphasised that detailed commercial and financial terms have not yet been finalised. These will be determined through separate Technical Licence Agreements (TLAs) for each vehicle model.

Under these model-specific agreements, key elements such as technology transfer, production processes, pricing, marketing strategy, and financial structure will be defined. As a result, the actual investment size and profitability of the project will depend on the terms of these future agreements.

Runner further stated that the MSMA was signed on 20 March 2025, during a BYD conference held in Shenzhen, China. However, some legal formalities from BYD's side are still pending.

The company expects these formalities to be completed within the next five to six working days. Once completed, the signed copy of the agreement will be shared with the DSE and other relevant stakeholders.

Meanwhile, the final investment, financial projections, cost structure, and other key indicators of the project remain under evaluation.

The company noted that these will require approval from both BYD and the board of directors of Runner Automobiles before being finalised.

Market insiders say that the absence of immediate financial clarity may create some uncertainty among investors in the short term.

However, considering BYD's strong position in the global electric vehicle market, the partnership could offer significant long-term potential.

Although Bangladesh's electric vehicle market is still at an early stage, rising fuel costs, growing environmental awareness, and supportive government policies are gradually increasing interest in alternative mobility solutions.

Local assembly under the CKD model could also contribute to industrialisation, job creation, and technological advancement.

Runner Automobiles said it will disclose the investment details, financial impact, and other relevant information in due course once these are finalised and approved.

Bangladesh’s exports have become a powerhouse for its economy, increasing by some $10 billion over the last six years. But when it comes to its immediate South Asian neighbours, the outward trade has remained trapped in a narrow range, failing to grow by even a billion dollars throughout.

Total global export earnings reached $43.6 billion in fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25), up from $33 billion six years ago, Bangladesh Bank (BB) data shows.

Meanwhile, exports to seven member countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) stood at just $1.9 billion in FY25, a mere 4.4 percent of the total. The figure was $1.4 billion in FY19.

A recent report by the central bank on the country’s economic engagement points out that while Bangladesh’s relationships with major partners in the European Union, the United States and the Middle East are well documented, “its economic linkages within Saarc remain surprisingly underexplored yet vitally important.”

Experts identify persistent non-tariff barriers, limited connectivity, logistical bottlenecks and weak regional cooperation frameworks as major constraints to expansion.

ONE MARKET, ONE BASKET

Even within Saarc, the trade is heavily concentrated, with India alone absorbing nearly 89 percent of Bangladesh’s regional exports, making the bloc effectively a one-market story.

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan remain peripheral, their combined share too thin to move the needle. While exports to Pakistan and Sri Lanka have shown some improvement, their scale remains too small to shift the overall trajectory. Nepal, meanwhile, has seen declining exports.

The concentration poses a huge risk – any policy shift or demand shock in New Delhi ripples immediately through Bangladesh’s entire regional trade position.

The export basket is equally narrow, dominated by ready-made garments, pharmaceuticals and leather goods.

The central bank notes that this lack of diversification limits growth prospects, especially in markets where production structures are similar and competition is high. Unlike Bangladesh’s global trade, which has gradually moved into higher-value segments, regional exports have seen little structural transformation.

The limitations of regional exports are also evident in the widening trade imbalance. Bangladesh bought $10.5 billion worth of goods from Saarc nations last fiscal year, more than five times what it sold, yielding a trade deficit of $8.6 billion.

India supplied over 90 percent of those imports, covering essential commodities and industrial inputs. Bangladesh is far more integrated with its neighbourhood as a buyer than as a seller.

THE ROADS NOT TAKEN

Policy experts point to infrastructure as the primary constraint. Except for India, Bangladesh has no direct land links with its South Asian neighbours, pointed out Khandker Golam Moazzem of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). This makes trade with the neighbours less lucrative.

For instance, he said, “Exporting to Hong Kong can sometimes cost less than trading with India, a reflection of poor logistics, inadequate land ports and inefficient customs systems.”

Outdated Safta (South Asian Free Trade Area) negative lists and persistent non-tariff barriers add further friction, he added.

Moazzem stressed the need for improved port facilities, modernised land ports and digitalised one-stop border services. He also highlighted the importance of sub-regional initiatives like BBIN and BIMSTEC to enhance connectivity through India.

Ahsan Khan Chowdhury, chairman of Pran-RFL Group, which exports nearly $100 million annually to India, identified demand mapping in each market as a prerequisite for expansion. “Saarc countries hold significant trade potential, but identifying demand in each market remains crucial for expansion.”

He flagged the “northeastern Indian states as a particular opportunity” for Bangladesh, while noting that trade became harder to sustain during the interim government period due to strained bilateral ties.

Chowdhury also called for upgrading Bangladesh’s standards testing infrastructure to meet Indian requirements and proposed an ASEAN-style duty-free framework for the bloc.

At the same time, he emphasised the need to negotiate with India to reduce trade barriers and improve port efficiency.

The contrast with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) -- which has built integrated regional value chains sustaining high intra-regional volumes – illustrates the scale of South Asia’s failure to deepen economic ties.

Sub-regional frameworks such as Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) initiative and Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec) offer a partial path forward, but analysts say physical connectivity remains the essential precondition for any meaningful expansion.

Bangladesh is eyeing an additional $2 billion from multilateral partners, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to manage pressure on external payments amid increased emergency energy purchases caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, said the central bank governor yesterday.

The disclosure comes as oil prices soar amid Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint handling one-fifth of global oil trade.

Brent crude futures, the benchmark for international oil trade, closed 4.2 percent higher at $112.57 a barrel on Friday (March 27), up from $72.48 a barrel just a month ago, the day before the US-Israel war on Iran began.

Bangladesh meets 95 percent of its oil and 30 percent of its gas needs through imports.

Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which use the Strait of Hormuz to export energy and fertiliser, are two key sources for the country. Bangladesh spends more than $10 billion a year importing petroleum and energy products.

“We are providing the government with ideas about various potential impacts of oil price increases,” said Bangladesh Bank (BB) Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman at a view-exchange meeting with senior business journalists at his office, where deputy governors and senior officials of BB were also present.

Based on different scenarios, the BB is analysing the possible impact on foreign exchange reserves. For example, if the price of oil is $210, the impact will be one type; if it is $150, it will be different; and if it is $100, the result will be different again.

“We are informing the government of these calculations,” he said, adding that discussions are underway regarding obtaining about $2 billion in balance of payment (BoP) support.

Bangladesh, already under an IMF loan programme, resumed talks with an IMF delegation in Dhaka on March 24-25 regarding the stalled $5.5 billion loan approved in January 2023, which has been on hold since the fifth review in November last year.

The country could receive a $1.3 billion tranche by June if it implements key reforms. Two instalments released together in June last year brought the total received so far to $3.6 billion.

Rahman said talks are ongoing with various international partners. “The matter of obtaining additional assistance from the IMF is also under consideration, although no formal discussions have taken place yet,” he added.

The possibility of extra financing from the Asian Development Bank and other sources is also being explored.

Appointed last month after the new government took office, Rahman said Bangladesh needs to ensure energy security and cut costs, and that the government is trying.

“The situation is changing rapidly -- sometimes there is talk of a ceasefire, and then again, fears of new conflict arise. Therefore, efforts are being made to take necessary decisions by constantly monitoring the situation and coordinating with all relevant parties.

“Our goal is only one: to keep the economy relatively stable even in this uncertain situation,” he said.

He added that in the current situation, the central bank’s policy stance is extremely important. “Especially on the exchange rate issue, we have to remain cautious. The BB is also not going to reduce the policy rate.”

“In the current situation, it is not realistic to reduce interest rates quickly, as controlling inflation is essential. It will also take time for confidence in new investments to return,” the BB chief said.

He added that over the last five to eight years, crises have become a new normal. “New problems appear every one or two years -- including Covid, war, and other challenges. It seems we have to move forward accepting this reality.”

STRENGTHENING FINANCIAL SECTOR AND INDUSTRY

The governor also spoke about keeping the financial sector free from political influence. Work is ongoing to recover defaulted loans and assets siphoned abroad. Most of the non-disclosure agreements have been signed by banks with international asset recovery firms.

Last week, the governor met with large industrial groups and employment-generating firms to address their concerns.

“Our main priorities are three -- agriculture, the SME sector, and restarting closed factories. Efforts are being made to bring closed factories back into production, even partially, because these are national assets,” he said.

Initiatives have been taken to increase cashless transactions. By June 30, the Bangla QR code will be mandatory at all payment points, with strict enforcement from July. This will increase transactions and boost revenue.

Responding to questions about troubled non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), he said efforts are being made for a quick solution. The BB had earlier decided to liquidate six NBFIs due to poor financial health and sought funds from the finance ministry to repay depositors.

“It is our responsibility to protect depositors, as they have kept money in licensed institutions,” he added, noting that the BB will also move forward with making Sammilito Islami Bank operational.

The bank was created as a state-owned entity in December last year through the merger of five troubled Shariah-based lenders. The appointment of a managing director is underway, and the board of the bank will be reconstituted.