Foreign buyers are increasingly diverting garment work orders away from Bangladesh over concerns about energy reliability and an uncertain business climate, said Anwar-Ul Alam Chowdhury (Parvez), president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI), yesterday.

“Buyers are telling us that within the next two to three months, Bangladesh may face electricity shortages. Because of that, their top management is discouraging them from placing new orders here,” he said, citing recent communications from international sourcing teams.

He made the remarks at a discussion with senior officials of the National Board of Revenue (NBR) at its headquarters in Dhaka. The NBR organised the meeting as part of its consultation with businesses and other stakeholders ahead of formulating tax proposals for the next fiscal year, 2026-27.

The BCI president said some orders had already been redirected to India and other competing countries, while others were being withheld amid growing uncertainty.

He added that several large buying houses had warned local suppliers of potential disruptions, triggering anxiety across the export-oriented manufacturing sector.

“Orders for July and August, which were expected by now, have either slowed significantly or stopped altogether. We are still in discussions, but in many cases we have not been able to secure the orders,” he said.

Chowdhury cautioned that a further downturn could follow if the situation does not improve.

Beyond energy concerns, he also highlighted the burden of minimum tax on loss-making businesses. Under the current rules, companies must pay a minimum turnover tax of 1 percent even if they incur losses, a provision he said is particularly challenging for small enterprises.

He urged policymakers to introduce a slab-based system for smaller firms and called for clearer safeguards regarding provisions in the Income Tax Act 2023 that allow tax officials to access business systems and financial records for withholding tax verification.

Md Abdur Rahman Khan, chairman of the NBR, along with other officials from both organisations, were present at the meeting.

The government has secured sufficient fuel supply to meet demand in May, with preparations underway for June and July, State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Anindya Islam Amit said today (22 April).

He made the remarks in parliament while responding to an urgent public importance notice raised by Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman on addressing the "ongoing energy crisis" and reducing public suffering.

Highlighting stock, distribution and global situation, the state minister said fuel prices in the global market have increased by an average of 186.59% since the start of the Iran war.

Despite intense pressure for price adjustments, he said the government refrained from raising fuel prices during the peak boro irrigation season. "After irrigation demand eased, prices were adjusted, and even then, the increase was lower than in neighbouring countries," he added.

He also said the government remains open to constructive proposals. "If the opposition or any party has a clear plan to resolve the fuel crisis, the government is willing to consider it."

Opposition lawmakers also took part in the discussion on the proposal.

Bangladesh’s economy is facing renewed pressure from global geopolitical tensions and commodity market disruptions, with risks of elevated inflation, slower growth and mounting fiscal strain, according to Eric Robertsen, global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered.

In an interview with The Daily Star, Robertsen said financial markets appear “overly optimistic” about a swift resolution of the ongoing Gulf tensions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies.

If shipping resumes soon, it could take weeks or months for oil, gas and petrochemical supply chains to normalise, prolonging price pressures worldwide, Eric Robertsen said
He added that even if shipping resumes soon, it could take weeks or months for oil, gas and petrochemical supply chains to normalise, prolonging price pressures worldwide.

“Even when the Strait reopens, it will take time for exports to normalise and for supply chains to stabilise,” he said, adding that such shocks typically leave behind persistent economic damage across vulnerable economies.

He explained that governments tend to follow a predictable policy response during commodity crises, starting with subsidies to cushion consumers and businesses, followed by price caps, rationing and, in some cases, more aggressive interventions.

“What we have seen in this crisis is that many economies, particularly in Asia, have moved through all these steps very quickly,” he said, adding that such measures come at a high fiscal cost.

“There will be a negative impact on fiscal balances as governments step in to support their economies,” he added.

Robertsen also flagged rising risks of stagflation -- a combination of high inflation and weak growth, particularly for emerging economies like Bangladesh.

“The inflation impact is immediate in a commodity shock, but the hit to growth comes with a lag,” he said.

Bangladesh has been witnessing persistently high inflation for the last three years.

“Higher energy prices reduce disposable income and investment capacity, which ultimately weakens demand,” Robertsen said.

He cautioned that central banks face a difficult balancing act in such an environment.

“If policy tightening happens too early or too aggressively, it could worsen the growth outlook,” he said.

However, he noted a key relief factor in the current crisis: the absence of a sharp appreciation of the US dollar.

“This has not turned into a currency crisis, which is extraordinarily good news for central banks,” he said.

About the global outlook, Robertsen highlighted four key risks for emerging economies: higher inflation, weaker growth, potential policy missteps and deteriorating fiscal balances.

“For the next two quarters, there is a need to build a higher risk premium into both market expectations and economic forecasts,” he said.

He also pointed to a longer-term structural shift in the global economy.

“We are moving into a world where control over commodities becomes both an economic and geopolitical tool,” he said, citing recent examples of export restrictions on energy products and critical inputs.

“One of the key lessons is the importance of maintaining strategic reserves of oil and gas,” he said. “Many countries have learned the hard way that they were underprepared.”

As a result, he expects global energy prices to remain structurally higher even after the current crisis subsides.

Naser Ezaz Bijoy, the chief executive officer of Standard Chartered Bangladesh, said in the same interview that Bangladesh’s ongoing economic challenges have been building over several years.

“Bangladesh’s current challenges did not begin with the war. They started during Covid-19, followed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which created foreign currency pressures,” he said.

“There was a strong expectation that after the political transition, investment would pick up and economic activity would accelerate,” Bijoy said. “However, fresh external disruptions have continued to weigh on the outlook.”

He stressed that limited fiscal capacity remains a core constraint.

“Our tax-to-GDP ratio is weak, and revenue collection has been consistently low,” he said, warning that this leaves the country with less room to respond to shocks.

Government decisions to adjust administered prices, particularly in energy, are also adding to cost pressures.

“The government initially deferred price adjustments due to political sensitivities, but ultimately had little choice but to implement them,” he said, adding that such measures would inevitably affect both inflation and the cost of doing business.

At the same time, he emphasised that ensuring an uninterrupted energy supply is more critical than keeping prices low.

Bijoy also pointed to setbacks in external financing discussions. “The IMF negotiations did not progress as expected, which is another hurdle,” he said, adding that the issue would require high-level policy attention.

On the external sector, Bijoy said export performance has weakened in recent months, particularly in Europe.

“The decline in exports began around August,” he said, attributing it to softer demand, higher costs and intensifying competition from countries such as China and India.

Buyers are also changing sourcing strategies.

“They are increasingly diversifying and consolidating orders with larger suppliers who are better equipped to meet sustainability standards and manage risks,” he said.

Despite the slowdown, Bijoy does not foresee a sharp downturn. “We are seeing a modest dip in exports, around 4.5 percent, which may reach 5 to 5.5 percent. It is not a catastrophic situation,” he said.

Rancon Auto Industries Ltd (RAIL) has entered a strategic partnership with Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation to manufacture vehicles in Bangladesh for sale in domestic and regional markets.

Under the agreement, Mitsubishi will take a 25 percent equity stake in Rancon Auto, which began local production of the Mitsubishi Xpander in June last year.

Announcing the joint venture at an event at Sheraton Dhaka yesterday, Rancon Holdings Group Managing Director Romo Rouf Chowdhury said the partnership would mark a major step forward for the country’s automotive sector.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, State Minister for Civil Aviation M Rashiduzzaman Millat and Japanese Ambassador to Bangladesh Saida Shinichi were present at the event.

Rancon Holdings Group Managing Director Chowdhury said, “The landmark strategic alliance -- the first of its kind in the country’s automotive sector -- underscores the strength of Bangladesh-Japan trade relations.”

He added that the strategic investment is expected to enhance access to affordable and convenient vehicle financing, expand after-sales services, ensure spare parts availability, and strengthen distribution networks across the country.

“It will also facilitate the transfer of technology and knowledge to develop a highly skilled local workforce, while contributing to government revenue through VAT and taxes,” said Chowdhury, adding the company’s automobile arm has gradually built its manufacturing base since starting operations in 2017.

Rancon Auto, which focuses on multi-brand vehicle manufacturing and assembly, began with the local assembly of the Mitsubishi Outlander. It later expanded its portfolio to include the Fuso BM117, Mercedes OF1623, Proton X70, as well as trucks and pickups from JAC and GMC.

The company upgraded its factory in 2023 with a modern paint facility. The following year, it launched the locally painted and assembled Mitsubishi Xpander, which quickly gained traction, with monthly sales exceeding 100 units, making it the highest-selling brand-new vehicle in Bangladesh.

Despite this growth, Chowdhury said the country’s automobile market remains largely underdeveloped.

With one of the lowest per capita vehicle ownership rates in the region and a population of around 200 million, he said Bangladesh offers strong long-term demand potential as the middle class expands.

Against this backdrop, Rancon initiated discussions with Mitsubishi Corporation to leverage its manufacturing and distribution expertise. The talks culminated in the joint venture, under which Mitsubishi Corporation acquired a 25 percent stake in Rancon Auto Industries through direct foreign investment.

“This is a proud moment for us,” Chowdhury said, adding that the partnership reflects growing international confidence in Bangladesh’s industrial prospects.

He said it could be the first instance of direct foreign investment in four-wheel vehicle manufacturing in the country.

Chowdhury expressed hope that the move would encourage other global players to invest, helping build a stronger automotive manufacturing ecosystem capable of generating employment and eventually developing into an export hub.

He also pointed to regional examples such as Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, India and Pakistan, which have developed established automotive industries with export capacity.

Japanese Ambassador to Bangladesh Saida Shinichi described the joint venture between Mitsubishi and Rancon as a “significant milestone”, crediting engineers, technicians and government officials for their roles in bringing the project to fruition.

He said Mitsubishi had begun training Rancon engineers in 2024, followed by the launch of Xpander assembly in June last year, calling it evidence of strong collaboration between the two sides.

The envoy also highlighted Bangladesh’s efforts to improve the investment climate, including its first Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan, signed in February, and initiatives such as the “Investment Gateway”.

He said the Mitsubishi Xpander is the only locally assembled Japanese-brand vehicle in Bangladesh, calling it the country’s first “made-in-Bangladesh” Japanese car.

He added that local assembly could support wider industrial development, including technology transfer, job creation and growth in upstream industries such as parts manufacturing.

Hiroyuki Egami, senior vice-president and division COO of Mitsubishi Corporation, reaffirmed the company’s commitment to bringing its global automotive expertise to the partnership.

In his speech, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury described the Mitsubishi-Rancon joint venture as a “refreshing change” for an automobile sector long dependent on imported vehicles.

“Bangladesh has traditionally depended on cars imported from Japan, Europe and the United States, a pattern that had become a way of life,” he said, adding that local assembly with a global brand like Mitsubishi marks a significant turning point.

He said Rancon’s experience in the automobile market makes it a suitable partner and expressed confidence that the collaboration would grow “from strength to strength”.

The minister highlighted the venture’s wider economic impact, pointing to its potential to raise value addition, create jobs and support industrial development, particularly in light engineering.

He added that the government is planning a dedicated zone for light engineering industries to support such initiatives.

At the programme, State Minister for Civil Aviation M Rashiduzzaman Millat announced that direct flights between Dhaka and Tokyo would resume next month, restoring a key air link between Bangladesh and Japan after a prolonged suspension.

He said the resumption would strengthen connectivity, facilitate trade and business, and deepen people-to-people ties between the two countries.

“You will be happy to know that we are starting flights to Tokyo from next month,” he said, adding that the move was expected to boost bilateral engagement on multiple fronts.

Inflation is likely to remain high and reach 8.6 percent in the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) due to higher energy prices driven by the war in the Middle East, according to BMI, a provider of insights, data and analytics.

The firm, owned by Fitch Solutions, said inflation may remain above the Bangladesh Bank’s (BB) 6.5 percent target set in its latest monetary policy.

It added in its report on Bangladesh published on Tuesday that this is partly due to base effects from low food price inflation during FY26.

Inflation averaged 10 percent in FY25, up from 9.7 percent in the previous year. It is expected to stay high at 9 percent in FY26, according to the Asian Development Bank in its April issue of the Asian Development Outlook.

The ADB projects inflation at 8.5 percent in FY27 as external shocks ease and domestic supply conditions improve.

BMI said that as inflation is expected to remain high, the BB may keep the policy rate unchanged at 10 percent in FY27 instead of cutting it, as it had previously projected.

“Our revised forecast reflects high projected inflation, a recent decline in long-term borrowing costs, and a renewed need for International Monetary Fund (IMF) financing,” said the report.

It added that the Iran conflict would add 0.13 percentage points to headline inflation in the coming fiscal year through higher energy prices.

“Elevated inflation threatens the BB’s price stability mission, making a rate cut in FY27 difficult to justify,” it said, adding that rising energy prices have made rate cuts untenable for many central banks worldwide.

The report said surging inflation in recent years has eroded real wages in Bangladesh, particularly for industry workers, who make up 21 percent of the economy’s labour force. Although salary declines have slowed in 2025, this follows five consecutive years of falling real wages, it added.

“An uncontrolled supply-side shock to inflation will worsen this problem. This will make the BB even more cautious about cutting rates, which could cause inflation to run unchecked.”

BMI also said falling long-term borrowing costs are another reason to keep the policy rate high. The 10-year treasury yield has trended down since January 2025, even though the policy rate remains elevated.

“Over the same period, credit growth has surged, driven by higher government borrowing. Apart from fuelling inflation, looser credit could also shift financial flows towards lower-quality investments. This is likely given the fragility of Bangladesh’s banking sector,” it said.

The report also noted the government’s request for $3 billion in financial support from the IMF and the World Bank.

“The government’s spending needs are real. Aside from cushioning the impact of the Iran conflict on Bangladeshi households, Dhaka will likely have to recapitalise several banks as it reforms the financial sector,” it said.

It added that IMF support is likely to depend on the government maintaining a degree of macroeconomic stability.

“Keeping monetary policy tight when economic conditions support it would help preserve confidence among international investors in Bangladesh’s medium-term prospects,” it said.

Bangladesh and Ethiopia have agreed to elevate their bilateral relations to a higher level through enhanced economic cooperation.Economy news updates

Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman, now visiting Ethiopia, held a meeting with Minister of Foreign Affairs Gedion Timothewos and discussed issues of mutual interest.

The two Ministers exchanged views on areas of cooperation in both bilateral and multilateral relations, said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia.

Gedion noted that Ethiopia continues to register sustained economic growth and invited Bangladeshi companies to engage in priority investment sectors identified by the Government, including renewable energy generation, agro-processing, the pharmaceutical and medical equipment manufacturing industries, as well as the broader manufacturing sector.

Minister Dr Khalilur underscored his country’s commitment to further strengthening bilateral relations with Ethiopia, particularly in the areas of trade and investment cooperation.

In recent weeks, making a simple phone call has become a daily struggle for Md Mosharraf at Char Bahadurpur, a village at Phulpur upazila in Mymensingh district. For it, he blames prolonged power cuts.

“Nowadays, we get electricity for less than five hours a day. Once the electricity is gone, there is no network,” said Mosharraf. “I can’t even speak through my phone most of the time.”

Currently, this problem is no longer limited to remote villages.

Mobile operators and tower companies say network quality has deteriorated over the weeks as power cuts have become more frequent and fuel supplies have worsened following the war in the Middle East.

During power outages, operators depend on battery backups at tower sites. Most sites, however, have backup capacity for only four to six hours.

“When cuts last longer than that, there is no way to recharge the batteries,” said Shahed Alam, chief corporate and regulatory affairs officer at Robi Axiata.

Mobile operators then turn to generators. But only about 25 percent of towers are equipped with fixed generators, forcing many to depend on portable units.

“Adding insult to injury, we are not getting fuel supply to the towers and our critical data centres,” Alam said.

There are 46,567 telecom towers across the country, operated by tower infrastructure companies and mobile operators. This provides network coverage to over 18.58 crore customers. Operators have around 27 data centres across Bangladesh.

Tower companies yesterday said that the fuel crisis could severely disrupt national connectivity.

“Bangladesh’s connectivity ecosystem is facing a real and immediate threat,” said Sunil Issac, interim president of the Bangladesh TowerCo Association and country managing director of EDOTCO Bangladesh.

He said telecom underpins all digital and economic activity and cannot be allowed to fail.

“If the telecom sector is not prioritised within national energy allocation and fuel access frameworks, we risk a cascading failure that will impact businesses, essential services, and everyday life. Ensuring uninterrupted connectivity is no longer a sectoral concern; it is a national imperative,” he said.

Data collected by tower companies through remote monitoring sensors show that electricity availability at tower sites has dropped over the past month.

In 12 districts, supply has fallen from 93 percent to 77 percent from the first week of March to the second week of April, according to tower company statistics.

A tower company official said operators run thousands of towers nationwide and track power availability continuously.

Sunil Issac said, “We have engaged with the relevant authorities to outline the risks and propose immediate, practical solutions, including priority access to fuel and enabling policy support to help the sector navigate this challenging period.”

He said that given the scale of dependency on digital networks, proactive and coordinated action is essential.

In recent weeks, mobile operators have sent at least two letters to the telecom regulator, saying an imminent nationwide disruption. The Association of Mobile Telecom Operators of Bangladesh said the electricity and fuel crisis has “reached a point where continued telecom operations can no longer be sustained without immediate government intervention.”

The association said prolonged outages have forced operators to run key infrastructure on diesel generators.

According to the letters, base transceiver stations (BTSs) consume more than 52,000 litres of diesel and nearly 20,000 litres of octane each day across operators. Each data centre uses an estimated 500 to 600 litres of diesel per hour, or about 4,000 litres a day per facility.

Industry insiders say such reliance on backup power cannot continue for long. Unlike tower sites, data centres manage call routing and internet traffic. Any shutdown at that level could cause failures across the network.

“If fuel can’t be managed and data centres go offline, it would cause widespread call drops, internet outages, and service blackouts,” said an official at a mobile operator, preferring not to be named.

Contacted, Tanveer Mohammad, chief corporate affairs officer of Grameenphone, said operators are facing electricity and fuel shortages.

“The evolving situation calls for timely and targeted measures to sustain uninterrupted telecom services nationwide,” he added.

He said that to “proactively avoid disruptions to essential services for millions”, operators need government support to secure priority electricity for critical infrastructure, streamline fuel supply and ease fuel transport for emergency operations.

Md Emdad ul Bari, chairman of the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC), said, “We have been trying to coordinate for over a month and have spoken to the telecom ministry and the energy ministry. In some places, there has been priority supply.”

He acknowledged that some tower sites are facing low fuel supplies.

“The regulator will meet the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation tomorrow and other stakeholders later this week to improve fuel availability,” he said.

About two-thirds of agent banking outlets in Bangladesh were not engaged in lending as of December 2024, highlighting a major gap in credit delivery despite the network’s rapid expansion, a recent study has found.

Titled “Agent banking in Bangladesh: Strong expansion, some inclusion”, the research was funded by the UK-based International Growth Centre (IGC) and examines whether agent banking has translated into meaningful financial inclusion.

The study used a newly constructed dataset that collected information linked to the geographical location of agent banking outlets, developed by the Policy Research Institute (PRI), covering 2022-2024. It maps the expansion, distribution, and financial activity of agent banking outlets across Bangladesh.

Since its introduction in 2013, the agent banking network has grown from 2,601 outlets in 2016 to over 21,000 by 2024. However, recent trends suggest a slowdown, meaning expansion may be approaching saturation.

Despite growth, agent banking is more effective at mobilising deposits than providing credit, according to the study.

Deposits rose from Tk 380 crore in 2016 to Tk 41,960 crore in 2024, while cumulative credit disbursement reached Tk 24,030 crore, giving a loan-to-deposit ratio of 57.3 percent.

However, this increase in the provision of financial services is uneven and concentrated in fewer active outlets, it was found.

The research also highlights a shift in banking geography. Traditional banking is heavily concentrated in Dhaka and Chattogram, which account for around 65 percent of deposits and 78 percent of total lending.

In contrast, only about 11 percent of agent banking loans originate from these cities, showing that agent banking has helped decentralise credit flows.

Rural areas have benefited, with about 15 outlets per 100,000 people, improving access compared to traditional branch banking. Rural per capita deposits are also higher, indicating strong uptake outside urban centres.

However, credit delivery remains limited. The study identifies a “zero-loan phenomenon”, where about two-thirds of outlets had no outstanding loans in 2024, suggesting those outlets function mainly as deposit and transaction points rather than credit providers.

This is more pronounced in remote and disadvantaged regions, including the Chittagong Hill Tracts.

Outlet distribution is closely linked to existing branch density, suggesting agent banking often extends traditional banking rather than expanding independently into underserved areas.

There is also no strong evidence that poorer upazilas are prioritised, while higher literacy levels are associated with greater activity.

On gender, over 92 percent of operators are male, but women are using the system more and more. Female account growth outpaces male growth between 2022 and 2024.

“As expansion begins to slow, policy should shift from improving access to strengthening financial intermediation. This requires enabling agent-based lending through appropriate regulatory frameworks, using digital data for credit scoring, and aligning incentives so agents can serve as effective credit channels for underserved communities,” said Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the PRI and co-author of the study.

He also called attention towards a stark gender imbalance among agents and stressed that addressing this issue must become a policy priority to ensure that financial inclusion is both deep and equitable.

The study concludes that while agent banking has significantly expanded access to financial services, its next challenge is strengthening credit intermediation, particularly in underserved and rural areas.

Speakers at a high-level workshop yesterday emphasised the critical role of robust shariah governance in ensuring transparency, accountability, and public trust within the Islamic banking sector.

The remarks were made during the opening session of a three-day special training workshop, titled “Shariah Governance for Members of Shariah Supervisory Committees”, held at the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM) in the capital. The programme is being jointly organised by BIBM and the Bangladesh Bank.

Md Kabir Ahmed, deputy governor of Bangladesh Bank, inaugurated the workshop as the chief guest.

He stated that effective shariah governance is essential for upholding public confidence in the Islamic banking system.

He further noted that shariah-based supervision plays a pivotal role in ensuring accountability across all banking operations.

Abu Bakar Rafique, chairman of the Shariah Advisory Board of Bangladesh Bank, attended as a special guest.

He stressed the need for a strong institutional framework to guarantee transparency in Islamic financial activities.

Supporting this view, Mohammed Abdul Mannan, chairman of the Executive Committee of the Central Shariah Board for Islamic Banks of Bangladesh (CSBIB), highlighted that as the country’s Islamic banking sector continues to expand rapidly, the need for effective shariah oversight has become more crucial than ever.

The inaugural session was presided over by Md Ezazul Islam, director general of BIBM. In his address, he reaffirmed BIBM’s commitment to enhancing good governance and professional expertise in the banking sector through regular training, research, and knowledge-sharing initiatives.

The workshop, which runs from April 21 to April 23, 2026, is being attended by members of Shariah Supervisory Committees from various Islamic banks and financial institutions across the country. The sessions will focus on shariah governance frameworks, regulatory policies, and global best practices.

Earlier, Mohammed Tazul Islam, professor and director at BIBM, also spoke in the opening event.

A refund system for businesses that paid tariffs, which the US Supreme Court ruled President Donald Trump imposed without the constitutional authority to do so, launched Monday.

Importers and their brokers could begin claiming refunds through an online portal beginning at 8 am, according to US Customs and Border Protection, the agency administering the system.

It’s the first step in a complicated process that also might eventually lead to refunds for consumers who were billed for some or all of the tariffs on products shipped to them from outside the United States.

Companies must submit declarations listing the goods on which they collectively put billions of dollars toward the import taxes the court struck down on February 20. If CBP approves a claim, it will take 60-90 days for a refund to be issued, the agency said.

The government expects to process refunds in phases, however, focusing first on more recent tariff payments. Any number of technical factors and procedural issues also could delay an importer’s application, so any reimbursements businesses plan to make likely would trickle down to consumers slowly.

The co-owner of a clothing company based in Washington, D.C., said the system seemed buggy on Monday when she tried to create an account on the portal, which was required before companies could do anything else. A lawyer in Northern Virginia said his clients reported some system delays and lag time.

In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court found that Trump usurped Congress' tax-setting role last April when he set new import tax rates on products from almost every other country, citing the US trade deficit as a national emergency that warranted his invoking of a 1977 emergency powers law.

Although the court majority did not address refunds in its ruling, a judge at the US Court of International Trade determined last month that companies subjected to IEEPA tariffs were entitled to money back.

Not all taxed imports immediately eligible

Customs and Border Protection said in court filings that over 330,000 importers paid a total of about $166 billion on over 53 million shipments.

Not all of those orders qualify for the first phase of the refund system's rollout, which is limited to cases in which tariffs were estimated but not finalized or within 80 days of a final accounting.

To receive refunds, importers have to register for the CPB's electronic payment system. As of April 14, 56,497 importers had completed registration and were eligible for refunds totaling $127 billion, including interest, the agency said.

System requires accuracy

Meghann Supino, a partner at Ice Miller, said the law firm has advised clients to carefully list in their declarations all of the document numbers for forms that went to CBP to describe imported goods and their value.

“If there is an entry on that file that does not qualify, it may cause the entire entry to be rejected or that line item might be rejected by Customs,” she said.

Supino thinks the portal going live will require composure as well as diligence.

“Like any electronic online program that goes live with a lot of interest, I would expect that there might be some hiccups with the program on Monday,” she said.

“So, we continue to ask everyone to be patient, because we think that patience will pay off.”

Nghi Huynh, the partner-in-charge of transfer pricing at accounting and consulting firm Armanino, said most companies claiming refunds will have imported a mix of items, and not all will qualify right away.

“It’s about having a clear process in place and keeping track of what’s been submitted and what’s been paid, so nothing falls through the cracks,” she said. “Each file can include thousands of entries, but accuracy is critical, as submissions can be rejected if formatting or data is incorrect.”

Patience with the process

Small businesses have eagerly awaited the chance to apply for refunds. Rebecca Melsky, co-owner of the clothing brand and online store Princess Awesome, said she was unable to register for a portal account Monday despite trying to submit her CPB import code and company information using two different web browsers.

She said Princess Awesome would file for a refund eventually. The company imports some of its clothes from factories in Bangladesh, China, India and Peru. Melsky estimated it paid $32,000 in IEEPA tariffs.

“My expectations have been pretty low about whether we were actually going to see any money back to us,” she said.

“I’m heartened by the fact that there’s any system at all, but I’m only slightly more optimistic than I was last week, which was not very."

Justin Angotti, an associate attorney in the international trade practice of global law firm Reed Smith, said his clients ultimately had their declarations accepted Monday, even if it might have taken a few attempts.

“So far, Customs has been very responsive in trying to troubleshoot the issue,” Angotti said.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday while most stocks rose on lingering hopes for a deal to end the US-Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even as Tehran said it had not decided whether to attend peace talks.

With the end of a two-week ceasefire approaching, the White House said Vice President JD Vance was ready to return to Pakistan for fresh negotiations to end a conflict that has sent crude soaring and revived inflation fears.

However, the Islamic republic's position remained uncertain as it accused Washington of violating their fragile truce through its blockade of the country's ports and seizure of a ship.

Crude plunged on Friday after Tehran said it would allow ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, which had been effectively closed since the war began on February 28.

But the commodity rebounded on Monday as Iran closed the waterway again, citing the blockade and seizure.

Donald Trump has similarly accused Tehran of violating the ceasefire by harassing vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the transit passage for about one-fifth of global oil.

The US president said the blockade would not be lifted until an agreement had been reached.

"THE BLOCKADE, which we will not take off until there is a 'DEAL,' is absolutely destroying Iran," Trump said on social media. "They are losing $500 Million Dollars a day, an unsustainable number, even in the short run."

He told PBS News that Iran was "supposed to be there" at the talks in Pakistan.

"We agreed to be there," he said, warning that if the ceasefire expired "then lots of bombs start going off".

He separately told Bloomberg News it was "highly unlikely" he would extend the truce.

Based on its start time, the truce theoretically expires overnight on Tuesday, Iran time, although in his comments to Bloomberg Trump said the end was Wednesday evening Washington time.

The Middle Eastern country's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said "Trump wants to turn this negotiating table into a surrender table or justify renewed hostilities, as he sees fit".

"We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the last two weeks we have been preparing to show new cards on the battlefield," he wrote on X.

Still, investors remained largely upbeat that the two sides will eventually come to a deal that will reopen the strategic strait.

US benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate rose more than one percent, while Brent was also higher.

Seoul led the equity market gains thanks to a resumption of the tech rally that had pushed the Kospi to multiple records before the war, while Tokyo and Taipei were also well up.

Hong Kong, Singapore and Manila also advanced, although Shanghai and Sydney fluctuated.

That came even after a down day on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated from Friday's record closes.

Asia had opened "with a gentle lean into risk as signs Iran may join talks with the US offer a pathway, however narrow, toward easing tensions ahead of the ceasefire deadline", wrote SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

"Markets are pricing the possibility of progress rather than its certainty," he said.

"Trump's remark that a ceasefire extension is 'highly unlikely' if no deal is reached has effectively put a clock on the market.

"However, traders recognize the playbook. Hard deadlines and firm rhetoric often soften as negotiations evolve, but the presence of a timeline still sharpens positioning and raises the stakes around each headline."

In company news, Japanese arms firms enjoyed healthy buying after Tokyo said on Tuesday it would ease decades-old export rules, paving the way for the sale of lethal weapons overseas.

The policy shift, which ends Tokyo's self-imposed restraint on the sale of lethal arms, comes as it seeks to enter the international arms market, hoping to bolster national defence as well as boost economic growth.

Fujitsu climbed 2.4 percent, NEC added 3.7 percent and Mitsubishi Electric was up 0.9 percent, while Mitsubishi Heavy gained 0.4 percent.

Bangladesh's total foreign exchange reserves stood at $30.46 billion as of last night (21 April).

Arif Hossain Khan, spokesperson and executive director of the central bank, confirmed while addressing journalists yesterday that the reserve position was previously $30.37 billion.

Bangladesh Bank purchased over $180 million from last week to Monday this week, contributing to the rise in reserves through increased foreign currency holdings.

A senior official of the central bank said Bangladesh Bank will make a payment to the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) next month, which prompted the purchase of US dollars from commercial banks.

Despite official assurances of adequate fuel stocks, underpinned by Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) data, long queues and intermittent supply disruptions continued at filling stations across the country yesterday.

While analysts and experts have proposed measures such as an odd-even rationing system and digital tracking to manage demand and ease pressure on pumps, proposals remain sidelined, leaving motorists to endure hours-long waits and sporadic "no fuel" notices.

In response to the strain, the BPC has announced a 10-20% increase in supply of diesel, petrol and octane, with 13,048 tonnes of diesel, 1,422 tonnes of octane and 1,511 tonnes of petrol being distributed daily through three state-run marketing companies. However, the retail situation has yet to stabilise.

On the ground, the supply boost has not fully translated into availability at pumps. While waiting times have eased slightly in parts of Dhaka and Chattogram, motorists across much of the country continue to face delays and uncertainty.

Imports and stock data show no shortage

According to port and BPC sources, between 28 February and 21 April, 823,170 tonnes of fuel arrived at Chattogram port in 26 shipments.

Of this, 624,452 tonnes came as diesel in 16 vessels, 124,087 tonnes furnace oil in six, 53,364 tonnes octane in two, and 21,266 tonnes jet fuel in two. A Singapore-flagged vessel, Hafnia Cheeta, carrying 32,000 tonnes of diesel from Malaysia, docked yesterday around noon.

Based on an average daily demand of 12,500 tonnes, diesel imports over 53 days could meet around 50 days of demand. With a 12-day opening stock in early March, total availability should have covered about 65 days, indicating no supply shortage.

For octane, the country had an 18-day stock at the start of March. Imports of 53,364 tonnes, against a daily demand of 1,200 tonnes, add 45 days of supply. Local refineries produce around 700 tonnes daily, adding roughly 37,000 tonnes or 30 days' supply. Combined, availability reaches about 93 days.

Despite these figures, retail-level disruptions have continued.

Mismanagement, panic and weak oversight

The strain began between 28 February and 6 March, when over 175,000 tonnes of fuel were sold in just seven days – more than double normal demand – rapidly depleting reserves. In response, authorities introduced rationing measures, after which long queues formed across fuel stations nationwide. Many motorists were forced to wait for hours and often returned without fuel.

According to Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) and port sources, 26 vessels carrying 823,170 tonnes of fuel arrived at Chattogram between 28 February and 21 April. Of this, 624,452 tonnes were diesel, alongside furnace oil, octane and jet fuel shipments. BPC data show that, in theory, the combined stock and imports were sufficient to meet demand for extended periods.

Despite this, retail disruptions persisted, with officials announcing a 10–20% increase in daily fuel distribution to ease shortages. Yet filling stations continued to report uneven supply, shortened operating hours and "no fuel" notices.

Analysts attribute the crisis to distribution failures rather than supply shortages. They cite irregular withdrawals in early March, panic buying triggered by expectations of price hikes, and weak monitoring across depots and stations as key factors. Some fuel was reportedly hoarded, while portions may have been smuggled due to price gaps with neighbouring countries.

Former Eastern Refinery general manager Monjare Khorshed Alam said early excess demand was not contained. "If the excessive fuel supply during the first week had been controlled, the crisis would not have become so severe," he said, adding that expectations of price hikes encouraged stockpiling.

Energy expert Professor M Tamim pointed to gaps in monitoring and the absence of tracking systems, which allowed irregularities in distribution. He also criticised early signals of price increases, saying they intensified hoarding behaviour.

Experts suggest that tools such as app-based fuel tracking and odd-even number plate rationing could have helped stabilise supply and reduce congestion at pumps.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) has urged deeper collaboration and the deployment of Indian capital market expertise, particularly in promoting the commodity derivatives market.

CSE Managing Director M Shaifur Rahman Mazumdar made the call on April 19 when Rajeev Ranjan, assistant high commissioner of India, visited the port city bourse in Chattogram.

In a press release, the CSE said Mazumdar presented a strategic plan for Bangladesh’s capital market growth and diversification, highlighting opportunities for collaboration with India in several priority areas.

He sought cooperation in expanding other asset classes, positioning CSE as a multi-asset exchange, and invited Indian brokers and investors to explore opportunities in Bangladesh.

In his remarks, Ranjan said India has a wealth of experience in the capital market—expertise it is eager to share with Bangladesh.

By arranging joint technical sessions, specialized workshops, and knowledge transfer programs, Bangladesh can tap into India’s proven expertise to develop its financial market, particularly in commodity derivatives.

This, he noted, is an essential step for price discovery and risk management for Bangladeshi commodity stakeholders.

The Multi Commodity Exchange of India, a global leader in commodity derivatives, could serve as a blueprint for CSE once formal cooperation is established with the Securities and Exchange Board of India.

“India is fully committed to supporting Bangladesh’s ambitions. We see Bangladesh not only as a neighbor but as a true development partner, and we will walk this path side by side,” Ranjan added.

CSE Chairman AKM Habibur Rahman expressed hope for further strengthening bilateral cooperation in the development of Bangladesh’s capital market.

Commercial banks' borrowing appetite continues to fall amid a squeeze in credit demand in the face of persisting economic sluggishness in recent months.Economy news updates

Apart from the private sector's lower credit demand, the Bangladesh Bank (BB) keeps injecting liquidity in the form of buying US dollars from the market to keep the exchange rate stable, which further cut commercial lenders' borrowing appetite, according to money market experts.

It ultimately helps banks, which often go for borrowing either from the interbank market or the central bank to meet their requirements, lessen their liquidity appetite and borrowing by overcoming the demand-supply mismatch.

According to the latest Bangladesh Bank data, the monthly volume of call-money transactions, through which banks make short-term borrowing within themselves, dropped to Tk 945 billion in March from Tk 1.47 trillion and Tk 1.06 trillion recorded in September and December last year, respectively.

The central bank repo is another major instrument through which banks can borrow funds from the regulator.

The data shows commercial banks altogether borrowed Tk 1.55 trillion in July last year, but monthly borrowing dropped to Tk 996 billion in September and Tk 1.08 trillion in December.

This further dropped to Tk 986 billion in March 2026.Bangladesh market report

On the other hand, through the special liquidity facility, under which there are seven borrowing windows like assured liquidity support (ALS), assured repo (AR), and Islamic Banks Liquidity Facility (IBLF), banks overall borrowed Tk 1.43 trillion from the central bank in July last year.

The monthly borrowing volume declined to Tk 603 billion and Tk 383 billion in September last year and March this year, respectively.

Seeking anonymity, a central bank official says the banking regulator kept purchasing US dollars from banks since July 13 last year to stabilise the taka-dollar exchange.

Under such forex-market intervention, the central bank has so far bought $5.68 billion from the market and injected more than Tk 650 billion into banks, he says.

"This intervention plays a major role in commercial banks' plummeting borrowing trend," he says.

In fact, he says, commercial banks now park their surplus liquidity in the central bank's deposit instrument called Standing Liquidity Facility (SDF) significantly despite lower gains at the rate of 7.50 per cent, while the call money rate is around 10 per cent.

According to the central bank data, the monthly volume of fund banks deposited in the SDF increased to Tk 578 billion in March from last December's count of Tk 424 billion.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Mutual Trust Bank Syed Mahbubur Rahman says the private sector's credit demand keeps plummeting, reaching 6.03 per cent by the end of February 2026.

He says industrial units are facing difficulties in their operation due to various factors like the energy crisis and the recent crisis in the Gulf countries worsened the situation further.

"So, the investment avenues of banks kept shrinking in recent months. That is why their borrowing appetite continues to drop," the experienced banker adds.

Picture a garment factory in Ashulia on a Tuesday morning. Machines hum, deadlines loom, and a buyer waits on a shipment. Then the power cuts out. The generator kicks in. Diesel is expensive and polluting. The factory absorbs the cost and carries on. This is not a crisis. This is Tuesday. Bangladesh’s energy crisis is the “common cold” of the RMG sector: chronic, underestimated and quietly debilitating. Painful, yet rarely dramatic enough to force action. The prescription is known, and the reforms are within reach, but the cost of inaction is no longer theoretical. What was once a logistical headache has become an existential threat.

On the factory floor, reality is harsher. Chronic gas shortages idle machines, delay shipments and raise costs. Global buyers are asking tougher questions about carbon footprints. With only 5.24 percent of installed capacity coming from renewables, we are not merely missing targets; we are risking competitiveness in a market that rewards reliability and sustainability. The country aims to generate 40 percent of its electricity from clean sources by 2041. Yet, of 32,345 MW total capacity, renewables account for just 1,695 MW. In more than a decade, the renewable share has risen by barely 3 percent, while investment has continued to favour fossil fuels. The energy mix is also unbalanced. About 82.7 percent of renewable capacity comes from solar, with minimal contributions from wind and hydro. Limited diversification leaves the grid exposed to supply and price shocks.

Industry is already paying the price. Gas shortages, often exceeding 1,300 MMCFD, mean factories receive well below the required fuel. To keep production lines running, many rely on diesel generators. That raises costs and erodes margins already squeezed by currency depreciation and global price competition. Energy insecurity is making Bangladeshi goods more expensive, precisely when buyers demand lower prices. The greater risk lies in compliance. The EU, our largest export market, is tightening environmental standards. Buyers increasingly link orders to carbon intensity.

Waiting until 2030 is not an option. Four shifts are urgent. First, enable private power. A Merchant Power Plant framework should allow producers to sell directly to large industries at market rates. The policy must be bankable and free of excessive open access tariffs. RMG hubs should be able to sign long-term power purchase agreements with solar and wind developers. Second, modernise the grid. The transmission and distribution network was not designed for variable renewable generation. Scaling up clean energy requires smart grid investment, faster net metering rollout and a clear modernisation roadmap with financing and timelines.

Third, remove fiscal barriers. The FY2025-26 budget cut import duties on solar panels and inverters to 1 percent, but mounting structures still face duties of 58.6 percent and battery storage remains heavily taxed. Duty relief must extend to all essential components so that fiscal policy aligns with national energy goals. Fourth, mobilise green finance. Bangladesh needs up to $980 million annually until 2030 to meet renewable targets, several times the current annual investment of $238 million. The Tk 200 crore single borrower cap under the Green Transformation Fund is too small for utility-scale projects. Developing a liquid green bond market and securing risk guarantees from development partners would help attract investment at scale.

The textile and RMG sectors must be central to energy policy. Policies detached from factory realities will fail. The priority must shift from announcements to implementation. Renewable energy is no longer a distant aspiration or a branding exercise. It is an industrial necessity. If we do not accelerate the transition now, we risk leaving our most vital sector behind as global trade shifts towards low-carbon production.

The writer is a former director of BGMEA and additional managing director at Denim Expert Ltd

Assistant US Trade Representative (USTR) Brendan Lynch for South and Central Asia will visit Bangladesh soon, US Ambassador to Bangladesh Brent T Christensen said today.

The ambassador shared the information during a meeting with Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir at the commerce ministry’s secretariat office in Dhaka.

Trade experts believe the USTR may discuss various trade-related issues during the visit, as Bangladesh and the USA signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade on February 9 this year.

He comes to Bangladesh months after the USTR began investigations into production overcapacity in different sectors across 60 countries, including Bangladesh, and into forced labour practices.

In today’s meeting, various aspects of strengthening bilateral trade, investment, and economic cooperation between Bangladesh and the United States were discussed, according to a statement from the commerce ministry.

The US ambassador noted that expanding bilateral trade would be beneficial for both countries.

The commerce minister said his ministry, along with other relevant ministries, is working on formulating the new Import Policy Order. He expressed hope that the draft of the Import Policy Order 2026 would soon be shared with the business community for feedback.

Both sides expressed interest in further expanding cooperation in trade, investment, and policy matters, the statement read.

Bangladesh confronts a nearly trillion-taka record revenue shortfall in the bygone three quarters of this financial year, scaling up pressure on government's fiscal management.Bangladesh market report

Until March, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) had lagged behind its target by about Tk 980 billion, marking the largest deficit in the country's history for the July-March period.

Revenue officials say the gap was partly due to an upward revision of the target without adequate assessment of prevailing economic conditions, as the interim government raised the tax-revenue target from Tk 4.99 trillion to Tk 5.03 trillion for the first time.

Revenue growth remained weak, rising only 2.67 per cent in March.

Over the July-March period, the NBR had collected Tk 2.87 trillion against a target of Tk 3.85 trillion, leaving a deficit of Tk 979.90 billion.

None of the three major tax heads met their targets, with income tax posting a shortfall of Tk 400 billion, VAT Tk 340 billion and import duty Tk 229.73 billion.

Officials and analysts attribute the poor performance to sluggish business activity, declining imports, weak investment inflows, Middle East tensions, rising fuel prices and persistently high inflation.

The large shortfall is set to put further pressure on the new government to manage rising expenditures and secure external budget-support funds.Banking sector news

On Tuesday, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury held a meeting with Prime Minister Tarique Rahman discussing conditions tied to the loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the next course of action.

Under the original US$4.7-billion IMF loan programme, Bangladesh is required to increase revenue by at least 0.5 per cent of GDP annually, although the tax-to-GDP ratio declined by 0.66-percentage points last year instead of a coveted rise.

In the remaining three months of the fiscal year, from April to June, the NBR will need to collect about Tk 2.15 trillion, which translates into Tk 710 billion to Tk 730 billion per month, far exceeding the current monthly average of Tk 300 billion to Tk 370 billion. Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), says weak revenue mobilisation has forced the government to rely more on bank borrowing to meet expenditures, warning that a year-end shortfall now appears inevitable and describing the situation as worrisome.

"Although the government has started trimming development spending to contain the budget deficit and ease borrowing pressure, such measures cannot be sustained for long."

The revenue target for the next fiscal year, set at Tk 6.04 trillion, will be difficult to achieve unless the NBR intensifies efforts to reduce tax exemptions and identify new sources of revenue, the economist forewarns.Global economy analysis

He cautions that if the current shortfall persists, achieving nearly 50-percent growth in revenue mobilisation next year would be unrealistic under prevailing economic conditions.

The economist, however, welcomes government move to introduce property tax and inheritance tax in the upcoming fiscal year as a positive step.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury on Tuesday told Parliament that Bangladesh’s foreign debt stood at around $78 billion as of February 2026.

“According to the account up to February, 2026, the foreign debt of the Bangladesh government amounts to $78,067.20 million,” he said while replying to a starred question from independent lawmaker Rumeen Farhana (Brahmanbaria-2).Bangladesh economic indicators

Earlier, the Tuesday’s sitting of parliament started at 3:00 pm with Speaker Hafiz Uddin Ahmad, Bir Bikram, in the chair.

The finance minister said the Economic Relations Division (ERD) repays foreign loans on behalf of the government.

Each fiscal year, a projection is prepared to estimate the total expenditure for servicing foreign debt including both principal and interest, and necessary allocations are kept in the national budget.

Loan repayments are being made from the budgetary allocation throughout the year following a scheduled plan.

In reply to a scripted question from treasury bench member Md Shamsur Rahman Simul Biswas (Pabna-5), Khosru said that the government received a total of $85,992.64 million (nearly $86 billion) in foreign loans from 2008–09 fiscal year to 2025–26 fiscal year.

During the same period, the government repaid $22,328.47 million in principal and $8,696.82 million in interest, he said.

As of December 30, 2025, the foreign debt stood at $77,279.12 million ($77 billion), said Amir Khosru.

He told the House that from the 2007–08 fiscal year to February of 2025–26, the government borrowed a total of $87,396.03 million and repaid $22,050.79 million in principal.

“As a result, the country’s foreign debt amount increased by $65,346.24 million during this period,” the minister added.

US President Donald Trump said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran to allow for further peace talks, although it was not clear on ​Wednesday if Iran or Israel, the US ally in the two-month war, would agree.

Trump said in a statement on social media the US had agreed to a request by Pakistani ‌mediators "to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal ... and discussions are concluded, one way or the other."

Pakistan's leaders have hosted peace talks in Islamabad to end a war that has killed thousands of people and shaken the global economy.

But even as he announced what appeared to be a unilateral ceasefire extension, Trump also said he would continue the US Navy's blockade of Iran's trade by ​sea, considered an act of war by Iran.

On my personal behalf and on behalf of Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, I sincerely thank President Trump for graciously accepting our request to extend the ceasefire to allow ongoing diplomatic efforts to take their course.

With the trust and confidence reposed in, Pakistan…
— Shehbaz Sharif (@CMShehbaz) April 21, 2026

There was no response early on Wednesday to Trump's announcement from senior Iranian officials, although some initial reactions from Tehran suggested Trump's comments were being treated ​skeptically.

Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, said Iran had not asked for a ceasefire extension and repeated threats to break the US blockade ⁠by force. An adviser to Iran's lead negotiator, the speaker of parliament Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said Trump's announcement carried little weight and may be a ploy.

Trump's wartime rhetoric has veered between extremes. In an ​expletive-filled threat against Iran only two weeks ago he promised that a "whole civilization will die tonight", while at other times has appeared keen to end the violence and market uncertainty.

With his announcement, Trump again pulled ​back at the last moment from his threats to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges. United Nations Secretary General António Guterres and others have condemned those threats, noting international humanitarian law forbids attacks targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.

NEXT PEACE TALKS UNCERTAIN

The US and Israel began the war on February 28 with aerial bombardments of Iran. The conflict quickly spread to Gulf states that host US military bases and to Lebanon once the Iran-allied militant group Hezbollah joined the fighting.

Israeli ​Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has for decades sought to oust Iran's leadership, but Trump has given shifting and sometimes contradictory rationales for joining Israel to launch the war and how he foresees it ending, stirring confusion ​in global markets.

More than 5,000 civilians have been killed across the region and hundreds of thousands displaced so far, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, and the war has led to the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a ‌vital chokepoint in ⁠global energy markets between Iran and Oman, sending oil prices soaring and fears that the global economy could enter a recession.

Iran has repeatedly exploited its ability to control the passage of oil tankers and other ships in the strait in response to US and Israeli attacks.

Trump said in his statement he was willing to extend the ceasefire because "the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so," a reference to US-Israeli assassinations of some of the country's leaders in the war's first weeks, including the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been succeeded by his son.

A few hours before his announcement, Trump had told ​the CNBC news channel that he was not inclined ​to continue the temporary truce and the ⁠US military was "raring to go."

Those comments came as tentatively scheduled peace talks in Islamabad seemed on the verge of falling apart: US Vice President JD Vance, whose presence has been requested by the Iranians, had planned to return to Pakistan on Tuesday.

Before Trump's latest announcement, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran's ​negotiators had been willing to attend another round of talks if the US abandoned a policy of pressure and threats, and rejected negotiations aimed ​at surrender.

Iran has condemned the ⁠US Navy intercepting and seizing two commercial Iranian ships at sea as part of its blockade, the second earlier on Tuesday, with its foreign ministry accusing the US of "piracy at sea and state terrorism." The US, joined by multiple other countries, has condemned Iran for impeding freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

A first session of talks 10 days ago produced no agreement, with much of the focus on Iran's stockpiles of highly ⁠enriched uranium.

Trump wants ​to take the uranium out of Iran in order to prevent the country from enriching it further to the point ​where it could develop a nuclear weapon. Iran says it has only a peaceful civilian nuclear program and a sovereign right to continue that as a signatory of the nuclear weapons non-proliferation treaty.