Two leading entrepreneurs in Bangladesh's cement and steel sectors have initiated a significant wealth transfer to family members, as part of a structured push toward generational succession in their businesses.

Mohammed Jahangir Alam, chairman of Crown Cement and managing director of GPH Ispat, along with Alamgir Kabir, vice-chairman of Crown Cement and chairman of GPH Ispat, have announced plans to gift shares worth a combined Tk166.14 crore to their spouses and children.

According to disclosures filed with the Chittagong Stock Exchange, the transfers aim to facilitate a smooth transition of leadership to the second generation while deepening their involvement in the companies' ownership structures.

The valuation of the gift is based on the closing market prices of the respective companies as of today (15 April).

Jahangir Alam, also a director of Premier Cement, plans to transfer 1.40 crore shares of Crown Cement, 45 lakh shares of Premier Cement, and 3.50 crore shares of GPH Ispat to his wife Masuma Begum, daughter Sadman Syka Sefa, and son Salehin Musfique Sadaf.

Following the transfers, his stake in Crown Cement will fall from 12.47% to 3%, while his holdings in Premier Cement and GPH Ispat will decline to 3.15% and 11.17%, respectively.

At the same time, Alamgir Kabir intends to gift 46 lakh shares of Crown Cement to his wife Kamrun Nahar, son Raihanul Kabir, and daughters Raisa Kabir and Nusaibah Kabir. His personal stake in the cement manufacturer will decrease from 5.67% to 2.57% after the transfer.

All the recipients are currently registered as general shareholders of the companies.

The regulatory disclosures specify that the share transfers will be executed as gifts outside the stock exchange's trading system, subject to regulatory approval, with a target completion date of 30 April 2026.

Market observers say such large-scale intra-family transfers among major industrial groups are increasingly reflecting a shift toward formalised succession planning in Bangladesh's corporate sector. By transferring these assets, the founders are not only securing their legacy but also ensuring that the next generation has a vested interest and a formal role in the companies' capital structures.

While the individual holdings of the senior directors will decline, overall family ownership will remain within the sponsor-director category, ensuring continued control over Crown Cement, Premier Cement, and GPH Ispat.

The Energy Division today (15 April) assured that there is no risk of a fuel crisis in Bangladesh, even as state-owned Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL) continues to operate at reduced capacity due to disruptions in crude oil shipments.

At a press conference at the Secretariat, Energy Division spokesperson Monir Hossain Chowdhury said a proactive strategy to ramp up imports of refined petroleum products has successfully cushioned the domestic supply chain, ensuring uninterrupted fuel availability across the country.

"As I mentioned earlier, the current stock of octane and petrol is sufficient to meet demand for at least the next two months. I can assure that we have adequate reserves," he said.

He acknowledged that the ERL is currently running on a "low feed" due to a shortage of crude oil, but stressed that this would not affect overall supply.

"We have a dual strategy in place. While we work to secure crude supplies, we have simultaneously increased the import of finished petroleum products to meet 100% of the country's demand. The supply chain is stable and uninterrupted."

The disruption follows delays in crude shipments linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly affecting key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz since late February.

An Eastern Refinery official earlier said refinery operations were temporarily halted due to the shortage of crude, following the Iran war.

According to the Energy Division, around 300,000 tonnes of crude imports were delayed in March and April. A vessel carrying 100,000 tonnes of Arabian Light crude from Saudi Arabia remains stranded at Ras Tanura port due to security concerns, while another shipment from the UAE has been postponed.

However, the Energy Division outlined several proactive measures to mitigate the impact.

"A fresh shipment of 100,000 tonnes of Arabian Light crude left for Bangladesh via an alternative route on 20 April and is expected to arrive at Chattogram port between 2 and 3 May," said Monir Hossain Chowdhury.

Additionally, the government has requested a further 100,000 tonnes of crude from Saudi Arabia for May and approved emergency procurement of another 100,000 tonnes through direct purchase to strengthen reserves.

Eastern Refinery, the country's only refinery, typically processes around 1.5 million tonnes of crude annually from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, accounting for roughly 20% of Bangladesh's fuel demand. The remaining 80% is met through imports of refined petroleum products.

According to the energy division data, Eastern Refinery supplied about 15% of the country's diesel and nearly 12% of its petrol demand in the last fiscal year, alongside by-products like furnace oil, kerosene, and bitumen.

The government has drafted a five-year strategic framework proposing to designate ICT as a special priority sector and send 20 lakh workers abroad annually.

The draft framework has been made in line with the government’s aim of achieving a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, according to a presentation by the General Economics Division (GED) of the Bangladesh Planning Commission at an advisory council meeting yesterday.

It projects real GDP growth reaching 8 percent by fiscal year 2029-30 (FY30), nominal GDP at $749 billion, inflation falling to 5 percent, and gross investment rising to 37.6 percent of GDP.

The outline will go through further consultations with relevant stakeholders before being finalised.

ICT AND JOBS

As per the draft, within the ICT sector alone, the government is targeting 10 lakh direct and indirect jobs.

Of the 10 lakh ICT jobs, 2 lakh are targeted in five areas -- cybersecurity, business process outsourcing (BPO), artificial intelligence (AI) and data, semiconductors, and Industry 4.0. The remaining 8 lakh are to be created indirectly through freelancing.

A national initiative will strengthen software, hardware, and BPO industries, backed by a commitment to universal high-speed internet, the GED said.

The draft also states plans to introduce a national e-wallet, including PayPal access, for freelancers and tech professionals.

Beyond ICT, the government aims to send 20 lakh people abroad annually through short-term language and skills training.

More than 5 lakh vacant government posts are to be filled through a transparent recruitment process.

EXPORT AND ENERGY

As per the draft plan, the garment sector will see stronger “Made in Bangladesh” branding through new product innovation.

The draft aims to broaden the export base by prioritising pharmaceuticals, leather, footwear, and agriculture and fisheries-based products.

Strategic free trade agreements at bilateral, multilateral, and minilateral levels are planned with key economic blocs across East and Far East Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.

On the energy front, the draft proposes ensuring supply of at least 20 percent of electricity from renewable sources -- solar, wind, hydropower, and waste-to-energy -- by 2030.

The power generation capacity is set at 35,000 megawatts, with transmission lines to be expanded to 25,000 circuit kilometres.

INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS

The outlined framework aims to increase foreign direct investment (FDI) from 0.45 percent to 2.5 percent of GDP within the next five years.

It proposes dedicated liaison officers and a formal complaint resolution system to build investor confidence, alongside a commitment to avoid sudden policy changes in tariffs, taxes, and export incentives.

To improve the business environment, it has set a target to complete digitalisation of approval processes to eliminate red tape and reduce physical contact in business transactions.

Company registrations are to be completed within 48 hours, and work permits within seven days.

A Bangladesh International Commercial Court will be established for fast-tracking commercial dispute resolution, and a Deposit Protection Ordinance is planned to ensure repayment from distressed banks as quickly as possible.

Besides, the tax-to-GDP ratio is targeted at 15 percent by 2035, to be achieved through expanded economic activity rather than a higher tax burden.

BLUE, CREATIVE ECONOMIES

The blue economy -- covering oil and gas exploration, renewable energy, fish harvesting, and shipbuilding -- will be developed as a national priority within Bangladesh’s maritime area.

The proposed framework has also set a target for the government to raise the contribution of the creative economy -- spanning film, music, theatre, gaming, VFX, and content creation -- to 1.5 percent of GDP, and create 5 lakh new jobs by 2035.

TOURISM AND SMEs

A national tourism policy update has been proposed, alongside a programme to help each village produce and market its own traditional product through design support, order-based loans, and e-commerce connectivity.

The draft also recommends that government channels low-interest loans based on each district’s heritage and renowned products, support for cottage industries, links to global e-commerce platforms.

AKM Ansar Uddin, a former official of Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Limited (Bapex), placed his retirement savings of Tk 16 lakh with People’s Leasing and Financial Services Limited in the hope of earning a steady return.

He set aside the money for his three children, especially for the marriages of his two daughters. But when the deposit matured, the company did not return the principal, let alone any interest.

As his health deteriorated, the elderly depositor was unable to withdraw the funds for treatment. He died in November last year. Amid financial hardship, the family later arranged the daughters’ weddings without ceremony.

Speaking at a press conference at the Jatiya Press Club yesterday, his wife, Akhtari Begum, broke down in tears as she described their ordeal. Their youngest son, Anaf Uddin, sat beside her.

The event was organised by the Alliance of 6 NBFIs Depositors Recovery Committee, which represents depositors of six non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) now under liquidation. The institutions are FAS Finance, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, Aviva Finance, People’s Leasing and International Leasing.

Over the years, several non-bank institutions collapsed amid widespread mismanagement, weak governance and heavy exposure to non-performing loans. Poor regulatory oversight and delayed action by the Bangladesh Bank (BB) deepened the crisis and ultimately led to liquidation.

At the press conference, Akhtari Begum said she had struggled to arrange her daughters’ marriages with dignity. “We are now uncertain how to survive with my children and cannot even ask others for help. Now I feel completely lost.”

She said her husband expected to receive Tk 7 lakh, which he planned to use for medical treatment instead of taking loans, fearing he would leave his family in debt. Now, she said, she does not know how she will live the rest of her life.

Nashid Kamal, a professor and Nazrul exponent, coordinated the press conference, where other depositors recounted similar hardship after their savings became trapped in the six institutions.

She said some depositors, including Mustafa Zaman Abbasi, a musicologist, reportedly died without proper medical treatment because he could not access his money.

Another depositor said her family invested funds primarily meant for medical treatment and savings in Aviva Finance. Since 2024, they have been unable to withdraw their money or receive regular returns.

“Even urgent medical requests submitted to the company were ignored, leaving us uncertain about our future,” she said, urging collective action, including approaching the BB governor and the finance minister.

A representative of the Khaled Mansur Trust, a privately funded charitable organisation, said the trust invested donated assets in institutions such as People’s Leasing, International Leasing and FAS Finance.

“The returns were used for education, healthcare, and welfare activities for underprivileged communities. However, with the funds now lost, our humanitarian work has been severely disrupted,” the representative said.

The trust urged the government to recognise it as a charitable entity and ensure the return of its deposits, saying that without support, its work for orphans and disadvantaged children may collapse.

Speakers called on the authorities to take immediate steps to repay the depositors, saying many families are living in acute distress. They said about 2,000 families have been affected. Many have neither recovered their principal nor received interest.

At the beginning of the press conference, Nashid Kamal read out a written statement on behalf of the affected depositors. She demanded the return of their hard-earned savings.

“For nearly seven years, depositors of various non-bank financial institutions have been suffering severe financial hardship due to mismanagement, weak governance, and delayed regulatory actions,” she said.

She said that while reforms, deposit protection and recovery mechanisms have been introduced in the banking sector, similar effective measures have not been properly implemented in the NBFI sector.

“We firmly state that any recovery or deposit protection framework applied to banks must also be extended to NBFIs, with necessary adjustments while safeguarding depositors’ fundamental rights. A depositor is a depositor whether in a bank or an NBFI. Equal protection, fair compensation, and timely repayment must be ensured in both sectors.”

The forum demanded a clear, transparent and time-bound roadmap to return deposits within 36 months, immediate recovery efforts for troubled institutions, regulatory protection equivalent to that in the banking sector, full transparency and accountability in liquidation and recovery processes, and strict legal action against those involved in financial irregularities.

In the statement, she said, “We call upon the government, the central bank, and all relevant authorities to take urgent and effective steps to restore confidence in the financial sector and ensure justice for affected depositors.”

“Our demands are simple and fair,” she said, adding that they would remain united in lawful protest until depositors’ rightful money is fully returned.

In January this year, the central bank decided to liquidate six of the country’s 35 non-bank financial institutions because of poor financial health.

The current BB governor, Md Mostaqur Rahman, appointed by the BNP-led government, has said reforms will continue, including the liquidation of the six institutions.

Despite a broader market downturn amid the Middle East conflict, several fundamentally weak and loss-making stocks – mostly from the non-bank financial institution (NBFI) sector – emerged as the top gainers on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) in March.

According to monthly DSE data, five of the top 10 gainers were NBFIs, led by International Leasing and Financial Services, which surged 100% to close at Tk3.20 per share.

Premier Leasing and Finance rose 83.33% to Tk3.30, while People's Leasing and Financial Services and Fareast Finance each gained 76.47% to Tk3. FAS Finance and Investment also saw a 70.59% increase to Tk3.90.

The remaining gainers included textile firms Hamid Fabrics and Familytex (BD), IFIC Bank First Mutual Fund, engineering firm Atlas Bangladesh, and Pacific Denims, reflecting a mix of low-cap and speculative stocks.

In total, 390 stocks were traded during the month, of which 173 advanced, 183 declined, and 34 remained unchanged, indicating a generally weak market trend.

Sector-wise, manufacturing stocks – including pharmaceuticals, textiles, engineering, cement, and food – accounted for the largest share of turnover at 46.86%, or Tk4,785 crore out of Tk10,211 crore. The financial sector, comprising banks, NBFIs, and insurance, contributed 29.97%, while the services and miscellaneous sector made up 23.09%.

Market insiders say the sharp rise in these stocks follows a prolonged slump, with many NBFIs previously hitting rock-bottom prices amid restructuring and liquidation concerns. Such rallies are often driven by speculative trading rather than strong fundamentals.

A similar trend was observed in February, when several struggling NBFIs posted sharp price increases after steep declines, highlighting continued volatility in the segment.

Gold hit a near one-week low on Monday as a stronger dollar and ‌oil’s surge above $100 after the US moved to blockade Iranian ports fuelled inflation concerns, prompting traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Spot gold was down 0.4 percent at $4,730.75 ​per ounce, as of 0735 GMT, after hitting its lowest since April 7 ​earlier in the day at $4,643. US gold futures for June delivery fell 0.7 percent to $4,753.30.

The dollar strengthened 0.3 percent as the US Navy prepared a blockade of ​the Strait of Hormuz that could restrict Iranian oil shipments after peace talks between the US ​and Iran broke down.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded by warning that military vessels approaching the strait will be considered a ceasefire breach and dealt with harshly and decisively.

“Ceasefire optimism has unwound following the failure of ​the peace talks, and the resulting push higher by the dollar and oil ​prices has put gold on the back foot again,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM ‌Trade.

Spot gold ⁠has fallen more than 11 percent since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February. While inflation and geopolitical risks typically boost gold’s appeal as a safe haven, elevated interest rates weigh on the non-yielding metal.

A stronger dollar also makes greenback-priced bullion more expensive for ​holders of other ​currencies.

“As soon as oil ⁠prices push back above $100, attention quickly turns to potential central bank rate hikes to curb inflation, and it is this interest ​rate outlook that is undermining gold’s performance,” Waterer said.

Traders now ​see little ⁠chance of a US rate cut this year, as higher energy prices threaten to feed into broader inflation and limit the scope for monetary easing.

Investors had priced in two Fed ⁠rate cuts ​for 2026 before the start of the war.

Interest payments, subsidies, incentives and cash loans could gobble up big pies of the next budget as the government earmarks over Tk 2.59 trillion on this account and officials predict higher energy costs could bloat the figure.

The sum is roughly 27.86 per cent of the national budget worth Tk 9.3 trillion for fiscal year 206-27, officials at the finance division say.Personal Finance Software

The amount is 7.99-percent higher than the Tk 2.39-trillion revised allocation in the current fiscal year.

They say subsidy allocations have not been estimated taking into account a potential doubling of fuel-import costs amid the ongoing volatility and caution that if the Gulf conflict persists, additional funding will be required for gas, power and fertiliser subsidies.

Finance Ministry officials also warn that government's interest burden on domestic borrowing could rise further if inflation does not ease and liquidity in the financial sector takes longer to recover.

Further fiscal pressure may arise if the BNP government proceeds with its election pledges to implement "family card" and "farmer card", which would require additional allocations, they note.

The projections emerged at a meeting of the Coordination Council on Fiscal, Monetary and Exchange Rate Affairs held last Friday with Finance Minister Ameer Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury in the chair.

According to documents presented at the meeting, the budget deficit for the next fiscal year has been estimated at Tk 2.35 trillion, or 3.4 per cent of GDP, taking into account the heavy burden of subsidies, incentives and debt obligations. In the revised budget for the current fiscal year, the deficit was set at 3.3 per cent of GDP, amounting to Tk 2.0 trillion.

To finance the deficit, the government plans to borrow Tk 1.19 trillion from domestic sources like banks and savings instruments, while Tk 1.16 trillion from foreign sources, an overall increase of Tk 350 billion, or 17.5 per cent, compared to the current fiscal year.

External borrowing alone is set to surge by over 84 per cent, according to the documents.

Officials note that the government is increasingly leaning towards external borrowing to ease pressure from high-cost domestic debt, as a significant share of interest payments is tied to bank loans and savings certificates.

Interest payments alone are estimated at Tk 1.42 trillion in the next budget, including Tk 1.15 trillion for domestic debt and Tk 270 billion for foreign loans.

However, officials caution that interest expenses could rise further if inflation persists, fuel prices increase, or liquidity conditions in the banking sector fail to improve.

Subsidy allocations, meanwhile, remain under pressure amid global energy-price volatility. The government has earmarked Tk 370.0 billion for the power sector, Tk 65.0 billion for LNG, Tk 270.0 billion for fertiliser and Tk 96.0 billion for food-support programmes.

Total spending on subsidies, incentives and cash loans is set at Tk 1.17 trillion, up from Tk 1.12 trillion in the revised budget.

Officials note that subsidy needs could increase further if the ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to push up fuel-import costs. The finance minister recently informed parliament that higher global fuel prices had already added Tk 360.0 billion in subsidy pressure during March-June of the current fiscal year.

While allocations for agricultural, export and jute incentives are being kept unchanged, remittance incentives are set to rise by Tk 8.0 billion to Tk 70.0 billion, reflecting stronger inflows.

"Expenditures such as interest payments offer little scope for control," says economist and former Director-General of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Dr Mustafa K. Mujeri, adding that the government has scope of controlling such spending in future.Local Business Directory

He told The Financial Express that subsidy spending, financed by public funds, needs to be rationalised through careful targeting.

He suggests phasing out blanket subsidies and limiting support to sectors that do not directly benefit the poor, warning that failure to do so would raise the debt burden on future generations.

Mobile financial service provider Nagad has consolidated its position as the leading platform for disbursing government allowances—including old-age, widow, and disability benefits—as well as education stipends under the national social safety net programme.

Although the disbursement window is open to all financial institutions, Nagad remains the preferred platform for beneficiaries, according to a press release issued on Monday.

In the January–March quarter of this year, approximately 1.47 crore beneficiaries selected Nagad to receive government allowances and stipends. During this period, total government disbursements through Nagad reached Tk3,049.23 crore across several categories.

Of this total, the largest number of beneficiaries and highest volume of funds were disbursed under the government's social safety net programme. Between January and March, around 1.31 crore beneficiaries received Tk2,878.35 crore through Nagad accounts—Tk300 crore more than in the same period last year.

Nagad also disbursed Tk32.68 crore in education stipends to 4,12,697 primary school students during the quarter.

During the same period, 5,785 students participating in sewing and embroidery training programmes received Tk2.68 crore through Nagad, marking an increase from the corresponding period last year.

In technical education, 1,22,937 students received stipends totalling Tk45.58 crore through Nagad—nearly Tk10 crore more than in the same period a year earlier.

Under the Madrasa Education Directorate, 38,055 students received Tk3.43 crore in stipends via the platform.

Meanwhile, under the Mother and Child Benefit Programme, Nagad disbursed Tk86.50 crore in maternity allowances to 10,11,557 beneficiaries.

The government also distributed funds under the 'Family Card' programme on a pilot basis through Nagad as part of the social safety net during the same period.

Md Samsul Islam, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer of Nagad, stated, "Nagad remains the preferred choice for customers receiving allowances, stipends, and government grants. We are grateful to our customers and the government for their trust. This confidence is a testament to our service quality, and as a result, both the number of beneficiaries and the volume of disbursements through Nagad continue to rise each quarter."

In the 2024–25 fiscal year, the government disbursed Tk9,000 crore in social safety net allowances via Nagad. The amount is expected to increase further in the current fiscal year, according to the press release.

Stocks at the Dhaka bourse slipped back into losses yesterday after a brief rebound in the previous session, as persistent sell-offs driven by cautious investor sentiment eroded early gains.

The downturn came amid heightened global uncertainty following the failure of talks between the US and Iran, prompting investors to offload shares and adopt a wait-and-see approach.

The benchmark index, DSEX, of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) fell by 41 points to close at 5,230. Market turnover also declined by 5%, while total market capitalisation dropped by Tk2,555 crore to Tk6.85 lakh crore, according to DSE data.

Market breadth remained negative, with 55% of traded stocks declining, compared to 31% advancing, while 14% remained unchanged.

The decline follows a modest recovery in the previous session when the market snapped a losing streak.

On Sunday, the DSEX gained 14 points after shedding around 60 points in earlier sessions.

Yesterday's trading began on a positive note, with indices staying in the green for the first 38 minutes until 10:38am, supported by early buying interest. However, the momentum proved short-lived as selling pressure, particularly in blue-chip stocks, pulled the indices into losses.

By the end of the session, the Shariah-based index DSES fell by 3 points to 1,057, while the blue-chip DS30 index declined by 31 points to 1,981.

Data showed that around 60% of A-category stocks, typically known for offering over 10% dividends, registered price declines. Meanwhile, 40% of Z-category stocks, considered junk stocks, also lost value.

In contrast, mutual funds posted gains, with 73% of traded funds closing higher.

In its daily market commentary, EBL Securities said the market failed to sustain the previous session's recovery as geopolitical concerns dampened investor confidence.

"Although the market opened on a positive note, the momentum quickly faded as jittery sentiment triggered broad-based sell-offs," the brokerage firm noted.

"Selling pressure intensified in large-cap stocks as the session progressed, dragging the broad index into negative territory and reflecting a lack of confidence among investors," it added.

Among the gainers, Mir Akhter Hossain Ltd topped the chart with a 9.82% rise to Tk31.3 per share. It was followed by Yeakin Polymer (9.03%), Fareast Finance (8.69%), Phoenix Finance 1st Mutual Fund (8.61%), and Premier Leasing (8.3%).

On the losing side, Meghna Condensed Milk Industries led the decliners, falling 4.67% to Tk36.7 per share, despite its operations remaining suspended for years. Other major losers included Apex Tannery (4.33%), KDS Accessories (4.27%), Sena Insurance (4.22%), and Peoples Insurance (3.86%).

The capital market in Bangladesh faces persistent problems with trust. IPO fraud and manipulation continue despite reforms, undermining investor confidence and impeding economic growth. Long-term stability and national development are at stake.

The nation has learned painful lessons. An estimated $27 billion in market value—roughly 22 percent of GDP at the time—was destroyed by the crashes of 1996 and, more catastrophically, 2010–2011. Millions of investors suffered losses, leaving social repercussions that still shape public perception of the stock market. The same structural flaws remain more than a decade later.

Recent enforcement data highlight the severity. The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) fined individuals nearly Tk 1,488 crore in the past 18 months for manipulation and misconduct. Yet only a fraction has been recovered due to lengthy legal battles. This gap between punishment and accountability sends the wrong signal: wrongdoing is costly on paper but not in practice.

Systemic weaknesses drive these failures—coordinated trading through omnibus accounts, abuse of placement shares, diversion of IPO proceeds, and lack of real-time surveillance. Bangladesh’s market capitalization remains low, around 6 percent of GDP in mid-2025, compared to over 100 percent in deeper, better-run markets. This underdevelopment hampers financing for infrastructure, SMEs, and industrial growth—key to Vision 2041 and the “Smart Bangladesh” agenda.

Globally, fraud persists but is increasingly managed with technology. Scandals like Enron and Madoff spurred regulators to adopt AI for real-time surveillance. Exchanges are also testing blockchain-based settlement systems that are faster, cheaper, and more transparent. Emerging economies such as India and Brazil have embraced digital reforms, strengthening disclosure, monitoring, and enforcement.

Bangladesh, however, still relies on manual oversight and fragmented data. In an era of cyber-enabled scams, this is insufficient. For a small, fragile market, each crisis inflicts disproportionate damage and deters investors. Modern technology offers a transformative opportunity.

Blockchain can fundamentally change IPOs and securities transactions. In a permissioned blockchain, every transaction is permanently recorded, time-stamped, and visible to authorized participants. Smart contracts can automate IPO rules—ensuring funds are released only when verified conditions are met, allocations follow transparent logic, and lock-up periods cannot be bypassed. Immutable records eliminate manipulation.

AI complements this as a real-time watchdog. It can analyze trading patterns, detect unusual movements, and identify coordinated networks far faster than traditional monitoring. Leading exchanges report fewer false alarms and quicker enforcement after adopting AI-driven systems.

Together, blockchain and AI create a powerful regulatory architecture: blockchain ensures data integrity, AI provides intelligence and early warning. Such systems could flag suspicious IPO activity, trigger halts during abnormal behaviour, and deliver regulators immediate, evidence-based alerts. Privacy-preserving technologies safeguard data.

For Bangladesh, implementation can be phased. Pilot IPOs integrated with the central securities depository would allow testing and scaling. International experience shows such reforms reduce fraud risk, shorten settlement cycles, improve liquidity, and restore confidence.

A regulatory sandbox led by BSEC, with Bangladesh Bank, could test blockchain-based e-IPO systems and AI surveillance. Capacity building is vital—training regulators, auditors, and intermediaries to oversee data-driven systems. Collaboration among exchanges, the depository, banks, and technology providers will be essential.

Implementation should begin with targeted pilots: blockchain-enabled IPOs and AI surveillance in the secondary market, before scaling. This gradual approach limits disruption while signaling decisive reform.

Bangladesh is well-positioned to leapfrog. High mobile penetration, a young tech-savvy population, and strong policy backing under the Smart Bangladesh Master Plan provide a solid foundation. While advanced economies refined systems over decades, late adopters can now deploy mature technologies quickly.

The cost of inaction is clear: repeated scandals will cap growth, deter foreign investment, and push savings into informal channels. The benefits of action are equally clear: a transparent market that channels savings into productive investment, lowers risk premiums, and supports sustainable transformation.

Fraud is not inevitable—it is a governance problem that can be solved. By adopting blockchain and AI as core regulatory tools now, Bangladesh can protect investors, strengthen institutions, and become a regional leader in financial innovation. Decisive reform today will yield economic, social, and strategic dividends for decades.

The US military began a blockade of Iran's ports, angering Tehran and adding uncertainty around the crucial waterway, although hopes for dialogue to end the war provided some relief to ​oil markets, where benchmark prices fell below $100 on Tuesday (14 April).

After a breakdown of weekend talks in Islamabad between the two adversaries, a US official said there was continued engagement and ‌forward motion on trying to get to an agreement. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also said efforts were still underway to resolve the conflict.

US President Donald Trump said Iran had been in touch on Monday and wanted to make a deal but that he would not sanction any agreement allowing Tehran to have a nuclear weapon.

Since the United States and Israel began the war on 28 February, Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels except its own, saying passage ​would be permitted only under Iranian control and subject to a fee.

The fallout has been widespread, since nearly a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies flowed through the narrow ​waterway before the start of the conflict.

Trump has said Washington would block Iranian vessels and any ships that paid such tolls and that any Iranian "fast-attack" ships ⁠that went near the blockade would be eliminated. Tehran has threatened to hit naval ships going through the strait and to retaliate against its Gulf neighbours' ports.

Shipping data on LSEG showed Chinese-owned oil-and-chemicals tanker Rich ​Starry passed through the strait on Tuesday - the first since the US blockade began at 10am EDT (1400GMT) on Monday. The vessel, which departed Sharjah anchorage off the coast of Dubai on Monday heading for China, had ​earlier turned back minutes after approaching the strait.

The US's blockade has further clouded the outlook for global energy security and the supply of a vast array of goods that rely on petroleum, and has little, if any, international backing.

Nato allies including Britain and France said they would not be drawn into the conflict by taking part in the blockade, stressing instead the need to reopen the waterway.

Despite the breakdown of talks between the US and Iran on Sunday, Vice President JD Vance, who ​led the US delegation, told Fox News on Monday the US "made a lot of progress" by communicating to Tehran where the US "could make some accommodation" and where it would remain inflexible.

He said Trump was adamant ​that any enriched nuclear material must be removed from Iran and a mechanism must be established to verify that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons.

Tehran "moved in our direction, which is why I think we would say that we had ‌some good ⁠signs, but they didn't move far enough," Vance said, without disclosing details.

Ceasefire under strain

The ceasefire that halted six weeks of US-Israeli airstrikes and retaliatory fire from Iran across the Gulf looked in jeopardy, with only a week left to run.

The US military's Central Command said the blockade would be "enforced impartially against vessels of all nations" entering or leaving Iranian ports in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman. It would not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations, it said in a note to seafarers seen by Reuters.

An Iranian military spokesperson called any US restrictions on international shipping "piracy," warning that if Iranian ports were threatened, ​no port in the Gulf or Gulf of ​Oman would be secure. Any military vessels approaching ⁠the strait would violate the ceasefire, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said.

Trump said Iran's navy had been "completely obliterated" during the war, adding that only a small number of "fast-attack ships" remained.

"Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against ​the drug dealers on boats at Sea. It is quick and brutal," Trump said on social media.

He was apparently referring to the US strikes carried ​out against suspected drug boats ⁠in the Caribbean and Pacific. The strikes, which began in September, killed more than 160 people. The US military has not provided evidence that the vessels were ferrying drugs.

Lebanon faces attacks

With the war unpopular at home and rising energy prices causing political blowback, Trump paused the US-Israeli bombing campaign last week after threatening to destroy Iran's "whole civilisation" unless it reopened the strait.

In a letter to the United Nations, Iran's UN delegation on Monday asked for reparations from ⁠Saudi Arabia, ​the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan, alleging they have allowed their territory to be used in the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Israel has ​continued to bombard Lebanon and on Monday troops launched an attack it said was intended to seize a key south Lebanon town from Iran-backed Hezbollah. The Israeli military said on Tuesday that an Israeli soldier was killed and three reservists were wounded during combat in southern Lebanon.

Israel ​and the US have said the campaign against Hezbollah was not part of the ceasefire, while Iran has insisted it is.

With Islamic banking now commanding 30% of Bangladesh's market, the shift from interest-based to asset-backed models is accelerating. Bank Asia is at the forefront, boasting a 70% deposit-investment ratio and a portfolio where Musharakah-based financing – true risk-sharing – hits 50%.

In a recent conversation with The Business Standard, the Bank's AMD ANM Mahfuz discusses the sector's trajectory and evolving strategic priorities

What is your outlook for the Islamic banking sector in the near future?

Islamic banking in Bangladesh has experienced remarkable growth since its introduction in 1983.

The sector has built deep public trust by aligning financial services with ethical and religious values.

With rising demand for Shariah-compliant products, expansion in SME and retail segments, and supportive regulatory frameworks, the outlook is highly promising.

In my view, Islamic banking will continue to increase its market share and play a transformative role in building a more inclusive, ethical and value-driven financial system.

What is driving the preference for Islamic banking over conventional banking?

Islamic banking is gaining popularity, particularly in Muslim-majority countries such as Bangladesh, primarily because it complies with Shariah principles, where interest (riba) is prohibited.

Beyond religious considerations, it is based on real economic activities involving tangible assets, unlike conventional banking, which is largely interest-based.

This asset-backed, risk-sharing approach enhances transparency and fairness. As a result, Islamic banking is increasingly regarded as a more ethical, stable and socially responsible alternative to traditional banking.

How has your bank's Islamic banking segment performed in recent years?

Bank Asia's Islamic banking segment has demonstrated strong and steady growth in recent years. The deposit–investment ratio has improved significantly, rising from around 50% to nearly 70%, indicating better fund utilisation and operational efficiency.

We remain fully committed to uncompromised Shariah compliance across all operations. A key strength of our portfolio is Musharakah-based financing, which accounts for approximately 50% of total investment, ensuring genuine risk-sharing and ethical financing.

In addition, we have built a strong presence in Sukuk investments and expanded our network from five to 15 Islamic banking windows. These achievements reflect our growing footprint and commitment to excellence in Islamic banking.

What strategies are you adopting to restore depositor confidence in Islamic banks?

Rebuilding depositor confidence in Islamic banking depends fundamentally on strict Shariah compliance and transparency.

Since its inception on 24 December 2008, Bank Asia Islamic Banking has upheld the principle of "Shuddhotai Apnar Munafa", emphasising purity and compliance in all operations.

Confidence is strengthened through a robust Shariah Supervisory Committee, regular Shariah audits and monitoring, skilled Islamic banking professionals, and transparent communication regarding fund utilisation and profit generation.

What opportunities exist to develop the Islamic bond market to support business capital-raising?

The Sukuk market offers significant opportunities for raising Shariah-compliant capital.

Globally, it has grown rapidly, particularly in countries such as Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. In Bangladesh, Sukuk issuance has already laid a strong foundation for further market expansion.

Sukuk can play a crucial role in financing infrastructure, supporting corporate growth, and attracting both individual and institutional investors, including non-resident Bangladeshis.

With appropriate regulatory support, Sukuk can become a key instrument for sustainable and ethical financing, aligning economic growth with social and environmental objectives.

What regulatory support is needed to diversify Islamic banking products?

To diversify Islamic banking products, strong regulatory support is essential.

This includes clear Shariah-compliant guidelines for products such as Sukuk, Takaful and structured investments, tax neutrality for Islamic financial contracts, standardised profit-sharing frameworks, and the development of secondary markets for Islamic instruments.

There is also a need for Shariah-compliant liquidity and risk management tools. Furthermore, promoting fintech integration, innovation and professional training will strengthen the overall ecosystem.

How can Islamic banking products be leveraged to attract NRBs?

Islamic banking products provide a strong platform to attract non-resident Bangladeshis (NRBs). Shariah-compliant options such as Mudarabah deposits, Sukuk investments and Islamic savings schemes offer halal and ethical returns.

Transparent profit-sharing, asset-backed investments and digital banking facilities enhance trust and accessibility, while remittance-linked Islamic accounts simplify fund transfers.

These initiatives can boost foreign currency inflows and strengthen diaspora engagement in Bangladesh's economic development.

How can Islamic banking contribute to sustainable growth and financial inclusion?

Profit-and-loss sharing models such as Mudarabah and Musharakah support SMEs, agriculture and infrastructure, driving job creation and economic development.

Financial inclusion is further enhanced through microfinance, micro-Takaful and Shariah-compliant savings products targeting underserved populations.

In addition, instruments such as green Sukuk finance environmentally sustainable projects.

By combining ethical finance with inclusivity, Islamic banking contributes to long-term economic stability and social equity.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has sought information from the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) to evaluate its request for extending the deadline for complying with new margin rules by three months.

In a letter sent to the regulator last week, DBA asked to extend the deadline for complying with the requirements set out in the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Margin) Rules 2025. In response, BSEC, in a letter issued on Sunday (April 12), sought information from the brokers’ association.

The rules came into force on November 1 last year, and are designed to strengthen risk management, protect investors and boost market stability. Three key provisions must be implemented within six months, with the current deadline set for April 30.

DBA’s letter said that brokerage houses need time for internal consultations, risk assessments, board approvals and integration of the new requirements into their operational systems.

The brokers’ association added that many firms are still finalising their policies and implementation plans due to a shortage of skilled personnel required under the rules, as well as limited technical support and client feedback.

Responding to the letter, BSEC asked for data so that the regulator can make a concrete decision regarding DBA’s proposal to extend the deadline.

BSEC asked how many brokers have already completed finalising the conservative policy of following the margin rules, and how many brokers have formed a risk management committee.

It sought information on companies that have not aligned with the risk-based capital adequacy rules of 2019, and also on brokers that have not applied for a time extension of provisioning of unrealised losses.

Additionally, the regulator asked for information on which brokerage houses hold non-marginable securities, and the cost value and market value of those securities.

BSEC gave the DBA three working days to submit the abovementioned information.

A ship named 'MT Great Princess' arrived at Chattogram Port carrying 12,000 tonnes of jet fuel from Singapore this morning (14 April).

The cargo was supplied by Indian Oil Corporation Limited.

Two more ships, 'MT Term Damini' and 'MT Lucia Solis', are expected to arrive tonight with a total of around 68,000 tonnes of diesel.

As of 12 April, Bangladesh had an estimated stock of 22,000 tonnes of jet fuel, which can meet the demand for about two weeks.

The recent consignment has slightly increased the stock. Jet fuel consumption has been relatively low, with 21,000 tonnes sold in the first 12 days of the month, averaging 1,758 tonnes per day, slightly higher than last year.

Diesel consumption is significant in Bangladesh, accounting for about 63% of total energy consumption. The arrival of the two diesel-carrying ships tonight will further contribute to the country's energy supply.

The demand for diesel is high across various sectors such as transport, agriculture, industry, and power. In April, the total demand is around four lakh tonnes according to BPC.

To meet this demand, a detailed import plan has been implemented throughout the month.

At the beginning of April, two ships delivered a total of 61,000 tonnes of diesel on 12 April. Despite this, the demand pressure has not completely eased. Between 1 and 12 April, 133,000 tonnes of diesel were sold at an average daily rate of 11,138 tonnes.

As of 12 April, the available diesel stock was approximately 119,000 tonnes, which could cover the demand for about 10 days.

With the addition of two new shipments, the stock may last a few more days, but the long-term relief depends on continuous imports.

Currently, over 11,000 tonnes of diesel are being sold daily in the country.

BPC Chairman Md Rezanur Rahman told journalists that efforts are being made to source fuel from alternative suppliers to prevent any major crisis this month.

He mentioned that several ships have already arrived, and more are expected to come to ensure an adequate fuel supply.

Bangladesh is scrambling to secure urea imports after an international tender floated last month failed to attract any bidders, with the Aman paddy, the country’s second-largest rice crop, due for planting in June.

Authorities met Russian representatives yesterday to explore a government-to-government deal. At the same time, Dhaka is approaching nearby producers such as Brunei, as well as more distant and less conventional suppliers, including Latvia and Ukraine.

The government has also asked Saudi Arabia, a regular supplier, to consider alternative shipping routes.

Since the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz -- a key artery for global fertiliser trade -- remains closed. It disrupts flows, accounting for roughly 30 percent of global fertiliser shipments.

Requesting anonymity, a senior official at the state-run Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC), said they are currently in discussions with Russia, Latvia, Brunei, and Ukraine to secure imports.

“We are looking to get the fertiliser from these countries as they can ship using routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.

After a meeting with Russian representatives yesterday, he said Moscow is expected to submit a formal proposal soon.

The urgency follows the shutdown of five of the country’s six urea factories because of gas supply concerns after the US-Israel war on Iran. The conflict has reverberated across the Middle East, a crucial hub for fertiliser exports and for natural gas used in domestic production.

Bangladesh needs more than 26 lakh tonnes of urea each year. About three-quarters of demand is met through imports, as local plants often operate below capacity when gas is diverted to other sectors.

Current stocks stand at around 300,000 tonnes, enough to meet demand until June. BCIC previously said it was working to build reserves to cover requirements in the second half of the year.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are Bangladesh’s main suppliers, providing nearly 10 lakh tonnes annually. Since the war broke out, major producers in Qatar and Saudi Arabia declared force majeure and temporarily halted production.

In response to the US-Israel attack, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has compounded supply disruptions, pushing up the cost of fertiliser and the natural gas used to produce it.

According to the World Bank’s latest commodity price data, urea prices have jumped by more than 50 percent compared with levels before the war began on February 28. The average price rose to $725.6 a tonne in March from $472 earlier.

Prices of other fertilisers, including diammonium phosphate (DAP) and triple superphosphate (TSP), have also surged.

In March, as prices climbed and the planting season drew closer, BCIC floated a tender to import 200,000 tonnes of urea. As it failed to attract any offers, a second tender is now underway with the closing deadline on Thursday this week.

Contacted, BCIC Chairman Md Fazlur Rahman said Saudi Arabia has agreed to supply 40,000 tonnes, but the shipment has yet to arrive because of the disruption in Hormuz.

“So, we have requested them to see whether the fertiliser could be shipped via alternative ports that would avoid the Strait of Hormuz and ensure delivery to Bangladesh,” he said.

Rahman said prices rose to $785-$786 a tonne last week and have climbed above $800 this week.

He said that higher prices would swell the subsidy bill, as the government provides urea and other key fertilisers such as DAP and TSP to farmers to ensure food production.

The government has set aside Tk 17,000 crore for fertiliser subsidies in the current fiscal year. Officials expect that figure to exceed Tk 30,000 crore next year if prices remain elevated.

Rahman said efforts are underway to restart factories closed because of gas shortages. “At present, the situation is quite complex and uncertain. We are making every possible effort to overcome this crisis.”

A blog published last week by the International Food Policy Research Institute said that rice production in countries, including Bangladesh, could suffer if fertiliser supplies remain disrupted.

“Rice is fertiliser-intensive and concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, regions heavily dependent on Gulf urea imports. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and much of Southeast Asia source a significant share of their nitrogen fertiliser from Gulf producers,” the authors wrote.

“If higher fertiliser costs persist into the second half of 2026 and coincide with an El Niño event, rice-producing regions could face both rising input costs and less favourable growing conditions at the same time,” it mentioned.

The newly elected BNP government is preparing a large expansionary budget in its first fiscal plan, aimed at meeting public expectations, accelerating development activities to create jobs, and restoring the economy to a higher growth trajectory through increased investment.

For the fiscal 2026-27, the government is planning to spend Tk9.30 lakh crore – up by 25% from the current fiscal year's budget, while the finance ministry is expected to set a revenue collection target of Tk6.95 lakh crore, according to budget documents drafted by the finance ministry.

If approved, the revenue agency will have to chase a target which is higher by Tk1,00,000 crore than that of the current year, a level economists consider beyond its existing capacity.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is facing a shortfall of nearly Tk72,000 crore against its target in the first eight months of the current year.

To mobilise additional revenue, the NBR may have to reduce tax exemptions across multiple sectors, raise value-added tax rates, and shift tariffs towards more market-based structures.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said budget sizes typically grow by 12% to 15% annually, but the government is planning an increase of more than 25% to fulfil multiple commitments, making revenue mobilisation the central challenge.

"The main problem with the projected budget is the fiscal constraint and how to generate the required funds. How will so much money come? " she said.

She added that achieving such revenue targets with the current capacity of the NBR is unrealistic, and the government should instead set more achievable targets and focus on implementation.

Priorities in budget

The current fiscal year's budget stands at Tk7.90 lakh crore in the original estimate and Tk7.88 lakh crore in the revised version, with the NBR revenue target set at Tk5.03 lakh crore. By the end of February, revenue reached Tk2.50 lakh crore.

According to draft budget documents presented by the finance ministry at a meeting on Friday, the proposed budget prioritises welfare-based initiatives such as Family Card and Farmer's Card, in line with the election manifesto. It also focuses on containing inflation and maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Other key priorities include skills development to promote entrepreneurship and expand domestic and overseas employment, accelerating growth, strengthening agricultural support, expanding healthcare, restoring discipline in the financial sector, and removing investment barriers through deregulation.

The budget also places emphasis on developing the creative economy, including film, music, sports, and rural culture. The government has already initiated recruitment of sports and music teachers in primary schools and introduced incentive schemes for athletes.

Deficit financing

The next budget sets a revenue collection target of Tk6.04 lakh crore, equivalent to 9.21% of GDP. However, the tax-to-GDP ratio has fallen below 7% and continues a long-term decline.

To raise revenue, the government plans digitalisation of tax administration, expansion of the tax base, stronger institutional capacity, and higher non-NBR collections.

The finance ministry has also sharply raised the non-NBR tax target. Against Tk5,786 crore collected in the first eight months of the current fiscal year, the target for next year is Tk25,000 crore.

The fiscal deficit is projected at Tk2.35 lakh crore, or 3.4% of GDP. While the current fiscal year's original budget was smaller than the previous year, its deficit was also set at 3.4% of GDP, higher than the next budget's projection.

The deficit financing plan includes borrowing Tk1.19 lakh crore from banks and savings certificates, and Tk1.16 lakh crore from foreign sources.

In managing the deficit, the government is expected to shift towards lower-interest foreign loans instead of high-cost domestic borrowing. A significant share of annual budget expenditure on interest payments goes to domestic bank loans and savings instruments.

The finance ministry has projected Tk1.27 lakh crore for interest payments, of which Tk1.05 lakh crore is allocated for domestic debt interest and Tk22,500 crore for foreign debt interest.

Finance officials said, if energy prices rise, inflation does not ease, or liquidity recovery in the financial sector is delayed, the government may face higher interest payment pressures on domestic borrowing.

The IMF generally considers a deficit within 5% of GDP manageable. The government is, however, aiming for tighter fiscal discipline. Still, shortfalls in revenue could force additional borrowing.

The Annual Development Programme (ADP) allocation is set to rise by 50% from the current revised budget to Tk3 lakh crore, which officials expect will boost public investment and employment.

Finance officials said project public investment will reach 6.5% of GDP next fiscal year, arguing that each taka of government spending can attract multiple times more private investment. Private investment is therefore expected to rise to 24.9% of GDP.

Subsidy pressure to grow

Despite the large overall budget, subsidy allocations have not been fully adjusted for rising fuel import costs amid instability in the Middle East.

Allocations include Tk37,000 crore for power, Tk6,500 crore for LNG imports, Tk27,000 crore for fertiliser, and Tk9,600 crore for food assistance, taking total subsidies, incentives and cash support to Tk116,125 crore, up from Tk112,455 crore in the revised budget of the current fiscal year.

The finance minister told Parliament that the Iran conflict alone added Tk36,000 crore in subsidy pressure between March and June due to higher global fuel prices. Budget documents warn that prolonged instability could further increase funding needs for gas, electricity and fertiliser subsidies.

Additional funding pressures may arise from the BNP government's election pledges, including family and farmer cards. The government has begun paying Tk2,500 monthly to low-income households under these schemes, alongside Tk9,600 crore for broader social protection programmes.

In the current fiscal year, this allocation was Tk9,663 crore in the original budget and Tk10,214 crore in the revised budget.

In the next fiscal year, allocations for agricultural incentives, export cash support and jute exports remain unchanged, while remittance-linked incentives rise by Tk800 crore to Tk7,000 crore.

ADP allocations also show a sharp increase in health spending to Tk20,608 crore, about six times the revised level, lifting the sector from 15th to third position.

The largest development allocations go to the Local Government Division and Roads and Highways Division, followed by power, primary education, and secondary and higher education.

While the World Bank and Asian Development Bank had lowered Bangladesh’s GDP growth forecast due to the Persian Gulf crisis and domestic vulnerabilities, the International Monetary Fund has kept its earlier projection unchanged.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects Bangladesh’s GDP growth at 4.7 percent for FY2025–26, which was the same as its earlier projection from January.

However, IMF's growth projection is set to dip further to 4.3 percent in the next fiscal.

The World Bank revised its projection down to 3.9 percent growth from 4.6, while the ADB revised its forecast down to 4 percent from its previous projection of 4.7 percent.

Former World Bank Lead Economist Zahid Hussain told The Daily Star that the IMF’s forecast “appears rather strange,” adding that “it is the same as projected in their Article IV report released in January 2026".

The absence of any impact of the war in the current fiscal year is inconsistent with their own assumption that economies with vulnerabilities and limited buffers are likely to be hit hardest. Bangladesh is one such economy.

He also said individuals and firms in Bangladesh have been living with the growth and inflation impact ever since the war started. There is no reason in fact or logic to believe Bangladesh will remain insulated from the impact of the war for four months.

Hussain notes that the IMF’s 4.3% growth projection for FY27 is more realistic if its reference scenario, in which the war shock fades by June, materialises.

The government, however, remains confident, insisting that GDP growth will reach 5 percent in 2026.

Brazil and the United States have become two key suppliers of corn to Bangladesh’s growing feed industry, as imports from India -- the traditional source -- have declined, according to a recent report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Bangladesh imported nearly 15 lakh tonnes of corn, also known as maize, in the first 10 months of the marketing year 2025-26 (MY26). Of this, 78 percent came from Brazil, while the remaining 22 percent was supplied by the US and India, with each accounting for 11 percent, the report on Bangladesh’s grain and feed sector, published last week, said.

The report said lower global maize prices encouraged traders and feed producers to import and stockpile large volumes. Bangladesh needs about 70 lakh tonnes of maize annually and imports around 15 lakh tonnes to cover gaps in local production.

“Growth in the poultry, dairy, and aquaculture sectors has increased demand for corn as a key feed ingredient,” the US agency said.

India has traditionally been a major supplier of corn to Bangladesh due to competitive prices, efficient logistics and shorter shipping times. However, since 2024, India’s exportable corn surplus has fallen sharply as it expanded corn-based biofuel production. As a result, Brazil has become the leading supplier for Bangladesh.

The report added that Bangladesh imported maize from the US in MY26 for the first time since 2018, after three local feed companies began purchases. This followed an agreement for Bangladesh to increase imports of US agricultural goods under a reciprocal trade deal aimed at reducing a trade deficit of more than $6.2 billion.

Under the deal, the US imposed a 19 percent reciprocal tariff on Bangladesh’s exports, on the condition that Dhaka would increase imports of US goods. The agreement covers wheat, soybeans and soy products, as well as cotton, with a total estimated value of $3.5 billion.

Total maize shipments from the US to Bangladesh reached about 160,000 tonnes in MY26, the USDA said.

The USDA projects that Bangladesh’s maize imports could reach 18 lakh tonnes, which is 27.2 percent higher than its estimate for MY25. However, it has lowered its forecast for MY27 to 17 lakh tonnes due to higher domestic production and larger beginning stocks.

Farmers are expected to harvest about 59 lakh tonnes of maize in MY27, up 1.7 percent from the previous year.

The report added that maize cultivation has expanded in recent years as farmers receive better prices due to strong demand from the local feed industry.

Farmers are prioritising corn because returns are about three times higher than production costs, while input costs are lower than for boro rice and vegetables grown in the same season.

Banks will be borrowing and lending among themselves for the short-term, using a new transaction-based reference rate from Wednesday.

At a press conference at its headquarters in Dhaka yesterday, the Bangladesh Bank (BB) announced the shift away from the long-standing practice of relying on quoted rates under the Dhaka Interbank Offered Rate (DIBOR).

Instead of simply using the rates banks said they would charge, the new framework draws on actual transactions to determine borrowing costs.

The new system is meant for improving transparency and efficiency in the money market. It also brings Bangladesh into line with global benchmarks such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), published daily by the New York Fed and widely used in international markets.

Similarly, the BB will publish the new reference rates regularly on its website from Wednesday.

DIBOR, introduced in 2010, was based on rates banks reported for lending to one another. Over time, however, the system showed its weaknesses. Many commercial lenders did not provide data consistently, meaning the rate often failed to reflect real market conditions.

Under the new automated system, the BB will rely on actual interbank transactions and two new benchmark rates -- the Bangladesh Overnight Financing Rate (BOFR), and the Dhaka Overnight Money Market Rate (DOMMR).

BOFR is a secured, or risk-free, rate derived from interbank repo transactions. In a repo deal, one bank sells government securities to another with an agreement to buy them back later at a slightly higher price. The securities act as collateral, reducing the risk for the lender.

DOMMR, by contrast, is based on unsecured call money transactions. In this market, banks lend to one another for very short periods without providing collateral, relying instead on mutual trust and liquidity needs.

BOFR will be available for overnight and one-week tenors. DOMMR will cover overnight, one-week, one-month and three-month tenors.

According to the central bank, these rates will be calculated using a volume-weighted mean method so that larger transactions carry greater weight in the final figure.

This means if one bank borrows Tk 100 crore and another borrows Tk 5 crore, the larger deal will have a proportionately bigger influence on the average rate.

To prevent unusual deals from skewing the outcome, the BB will apply statistical techniques to filter out outliers.

For example, an exceptionally high lending rate on a single transaction would not be allowed to distort the benchmark. Similarly, if trading is thin on a particular day, the calculation will draw on data from recent working days to ensure stability.

The central bank expects the new framework to provide a dependable benchmark for pricing loans, bonds and floating rate instruments, and to support the development of new investment products.

Officials said the rates have been tested on a trial basis since March. They added that the system will be refined through regular monitoring and annual reviews.

Pragati Insurance has recommended a 27% cash dividend and a 3% stock dividend for the year ended 31 December 2025, reflecting a continued effort to reward shareholders while strengthening its capital base.

In the previous year, the insurer paid 20% cash and 7% stock dividend for their shareholders.

According to a disclosure on the stock exchange yesterday, the company will hold its Annual General Meeting on 18 June 2026 via a digital platform. For this, the record date has been fixed for 12 May 2026.

Despite this declaration, the share price of the company decreased yesterday by 2.61% to Tk71 on the Dhaka stock exchange.

End of December 2025, the company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of Tk5.31, marking a slight increase from Tk5.24 in the previous year.

The net asset value (NAV) per share also improved to Tk57.36, compared to Tk53.82 a year earlier, indicating a stronger asset base.

However, net operating cash flow per share declined significantly to Tk1.44 from Tk3.13 in 2024, suggesting a reduction in cash generation from core business operations despite improved profitability.

The company explained that the declaration of bonus shares aims to increase its paid-up capital, which is expected to enhance its financial strength and support expansion.

It further clarified that the stock dividend has been declared from retained earnings, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements.

The company also said that the bonus shares have not been issued from capital reserves, revaluation reserves, or any unrealised gains. Additionally, the retained earnings will remain positive after the dividend distribution, avoiding any negative balance.

The primary objectives of the company are to carry on all kinds of non-life insurance business. The company's non-life insurance products include fire and allied perils insurance, marine cargo and hull insurance, aviation insurance, automobile insurance and miscellaneous insurance.

Market analysts said that while the steady growth in EPS and NAV signals operational stability, the sharp decline in cash flow may raise concerns among investors regarding liquidity and sustainability of earnings.

They suggest investors closely monitor the company's future cash flow trends.