The government is planning to upgrade Bangladesh's stock market from its current frontier market status to an emerging market in a bid to strengthen the capital market and restore investor confidence, Prime Minister's Adviser on Finance and Planning Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir has said.

He said the government's immediate priority is to deepen and broaden the capital market while increasing participation from ordinary citizens so that more people can take part in economic activities not only as consumers but also as owners.

Titumir made the remarks at a discussion titled "Challenges and Way Forward for the New Government in the Capital Market," organised by the Capital Market Journalists Forum (CMJF) at Fars Hotel in Dhaka yesterday.

Bangladesh's equity market is currently classified as a frontier market by major global index providers, a category generally used for smaller or less liquid markets that are still developing and have not yet reached the scale and accessibility of emerging markets.

Speaking at the event, Titumir said structural reforms are essential to transform the capital market and achieve the government's long-term goals.

According to him, the market has long suffered from stagnation due to persistent problems such as manipulation, lack of transparency and weaknesses in the regulatory framework.

"If the market itself does not function properly, external oversight alone cannot solve the problem," he said, stressing the need for greater accountability among institutions responsible for maintaining market discipline.

The adviser noted that auditors, asset valuers and credit rating agencies play a critical role in ensuring transparency in the financial system. If these institutions fail to perform their responsibilities properly, investor confidence in the capital market will continue to decline, he added.

Titumir also emphasised the need for a clear financing structure in the economy. Policymakers, he said, must determine which companies should rely on bank loans and which should raise long-term funds from the capital market.

He further suggested that the government could finance large public infrastructure projects through bonds rather than relying solely on budgetary allocations.

Highlighting the need for diversification of financial instruments, the adviser said Bangladesh should gradually move toward a bond-based financing system and develop new products in the capital market.

He also proposed establishing an Islamic stock exchange in the country to attract investors from Indonesia, Malaysia and Gulf countries, alongside creating an investment gateway for non-resident Bangladeshis.

Titumir said an economy driven mainly by consumption or borrowing cannot be sustainable in the long run. "We want to move from a debt-dependent society to an ownership-based society," he said, noting that the capital market could serve as an important platform for economic democratisation.

At the event, Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) Chairman Khandoker Rashed Maqsood said the regulator has conducted around 200 investigations and imposed fines amounting to nearly Tk1,500 crore as part of recent reforms in the market.

National Board of Revenue Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan said incentives provided to the capital market in the past did not produce the expected outcomes. He stressed the need to address negative perceptions about the market while ensuring sustainable revenue collection.

Market stakeholders also highlighted structural challenges in the financial system. Md Moniruzzaman, managing director of Prime Bank Securities, said Bangladesh faces three major problems: liquidity shortages in the capital market, pressure on the banking sector and low tax collection.

Dhaka Stock Exchange Chairman Mominul Islam emphasised the need for coordination among ministries to bring more state-owned institutions to the market.

Chittagong Stock Exchange Chairman AKM Habibur Rahman said a strong capital market requires a stable banking system, a stable economy and the rule of law.

Bangladesh Association of Publicly Listed Companies President Riyad Mahmud called for greater digitalisation and said high listing fees are discouraging companies from launching initial public offerings.

Bangladesh Merchant Bankers Association Secretary General Sumit Poddar said no new companies have entered the market in the past two years, stressing the importance of attracting a few high-quality firms during IPO seasons rather than focusing on the number of listings.

The price of the US benchmark WTI oil contract topping $100 after the United States launched a military attack against major crude producer Iran is the latest significant swing experienced by the commodity this century.

AFP examines the volatile movements, including when crude surged to record highs close to $150 per barrel in 2008, before turning negative 12 years later during the Covid-19 pandemic.

2022: Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Crude futures last climbed above $100 in February 2022, soon after the invasion of Ukraine by oil and gas producer Russia.

In March of that year, prices approached their 2008 highs, with Brent reaching $139.13 and the main US contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), $130.50.

Fears of insufficient oil supplies as Western sanctions against Russia followed -- coupled with increased demand after the Covid-19 pandemic -- kept prices mostly above $100 until the summer of 2022.

Prices went on to fall back largely owing to high supplies.

2020: Covid pandemic

Just two years before surpassing $100 following Russia's invasion, oil prices briefly turned negative following the onset of the coronavirus pandemic that shut offices and factories -- and grounded planes worldwide.

The market also tumbled on scarce storage facilities and a Saudi-Russia price war.

WTI slumped to minus $40.32, meaning that producers paid buyers to take the oil off their hands.

At the same time, Brent tanked to a record low of $15.98.

2012: Iran crude embargo

After falling under $90 over a eurozone economic crisis, oil prices rose back above $100 after Western powers imposed a raft of economic sanctions on Iran, including crude exports, aimed at halting its nuclear programme, long a source of Washington-Tehran tension.

Wider tensions in the Middle East owing to the Syria conflict kept prices almost continuously above $100 until 2014, before sliding under $50 at the start of the following year as a result of American shale oil flooding the market.

2011: Arab Spring

Brent soared to $127 in March 2011 following unrest in the oil-producing Middle East and North Africa region.

The market bounded higher after the so-called Arab Spring uprisings toppled the long-standing leaders of Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen, while unrest also rocked other parts of the region, especially crude producer Libya.

2008: Record-high $147

On July 11, 2008, Brent hit a record high of $147.50 per barrel, having breached $100 at the start of the year for the first time.

The same day, WTI achieved an all-time peak at $147.27 per barrel.

Crude surged thanks to falling stockpiles in the United States, strong Chinese demand and unrest in key OPEC members Iran and Nigeria.

A weaker dollar also lent strong support, making crude priced in the greenback cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.

But by December 2008, Brent had tanked to sit at around $36 owing to a severe economic recession worldwide in the wake of the global financial crisis.

In a bid to curb share manipulation, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission imposed hefty fines totalling around Tk1,500 crore on influential investors – often described as gamblers – for breaching securities laws, mostly through serial trading, over the past one and a half years under the interim government.

The fines, aimed at restoring market order, were primarily issued between 8 August 2024 and 16 February this year, marking the largest enforcement action in the country's capital market since the regulator was established in 1993.

However, recovery of the fines has reached only about 0.35% – roughly Tk5.23 crore – as many penalised investors have yet to pay, and some have challenged the regulator's decisions, raising questions about the effectiveness of the enforcement drive.

Following the formation of the new government, the Ministry of Finance sought details about the commission's activities. In response, the BSEC submitted a report outlining measures taken during the past 18 months, including enforcement actions against share manipulation.

The current commission, led by former banker Khondoker Rashed Maqsood, was formed after the ousting of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024.

After taking office, the commission pledged strict action against market manipulation in an effort to stabilise the capital market.

According to officials, the regulator has taken action against manipulation cases that occurred during the previous administration but were largely overlooked by the then-commission.

Under the rules, fines must be paid within 30 working days after being imposed. Those penalised can appeal to the commission for a review within three months and seek a revision within six months.

Companies linked to manipulation cases

The companies whose shares were manipulated include Karnaphuli Insurance, Paramount Insurance, Global Insurance, BD Finance, Prime Finance First Mutual Fund, Delta Life Insurance, NRB Commercial Bank, Sonali Paper, Fortune Shoes, Fine Foods, Alltex Industries, Khan Brothers PP Woven Bags, Asia Insurance, Sonali Life Insurance, and Gemini Sea Food Limited.

Among the largest penalties was imposed on Beximco Limited, owned by Salman F Rahman, the former private industry and investment adviser to the prime minister. The company and its associated entities – Marjana Rahman and Associates and Mosfequr Rahman and Associates – were fined a combined Tk428 crore for share manipulation.

Abul Khayer, a government cooperative cadre officer, and his associates – including family members and cricketer Shakib Al Hasan – were fined Tk194 crore.

At least 50 other investors were fined Tk351 crore for violating securities laws in transactions involving several insurance sector companies.

In another case, Jashim Uddin, Masudur Rahman, Shikkito Bekar, and their associates were fined Tk5.52 crore for share manipulation. The commission also imposed Tk28.87 crore in penalties for non-payment of dividends.

Abul Kalam, spokesperson for the BSEC, said the penalties were intended to restore discipline in the market.

"The commission has imposed fines to restore discipline in the capital market. Those involved in manipulation have been fined their entire realised gain, minus 10%, to ensure no one can make gains from foul play in the market anymore," he told The Business Standard.

He acknowledged that collecting the fines can take time. "Collecting share manipulation fines is time-consuming. Accused individuals have at least nine months for review and revision, after which legal proceedings can begin. Fine collection is ongoing," he said.

According to the regulator, individuals penalised by the commission are given three months to seek revision and six months to apply for a review after a fine is imposed.

The taka weakened sharply against the US dollar yesterday (8 March), snapping six months of exchange rate stability as demand for greenbacks rose to meet growing energy import bills amid the Middle East war.

In the inter-bank market, the dollar rose by as high as Tk0.25 in a single day to trade between Tk122.50 and Tk122.55 yesterday, compared with Tk122.30 on the last working day on Thursday, according to banking sources.

The sudden rise in the dollar price has raised concerns about further inflationary pressure. Consumer inflation already climbed over 9% in February, the highest level in the past 10 months.

Although the Bangladesh Bank had verbally instructed banks to keep the remittance exchange rate at a maximum of Tk122.45, most banks did not maintain the limit, according to industry insiders.

Energy crisis averted for now as more oil, gas on the way

Bankers say exchange houses had already raised remittance rates, forcing banks to buy more dollars from the market to meet growing energy import bills for the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation as global oil prices increased following the outbreak of the war.

In addition, remittance inflows from the Gulf countries have slowed since last week due to the ongoing war, further tightening the dollar supply in the market, several bankers said, wishing not to be named.

The Bangladesh Bank is likely to step in to sell dollars to retain rates if banks come up with demand, said a senior executive of the regulator.

He noted that the central bank has already stopped purchasing dollars from banks as a precautionary measure as the foreign exchange market shows signs of stress.

Despite yesterday's rise in the dollar price, no banks approached the regulator to buy dollars, he added.

During the current 2025-26 fiscal year, the central bank purchased about $5.4 billion from the market to prevent excessive appreciation of the taka amid weak import demand caused by sluggish business activity.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India has also intervened in the market by selling dollars to stem losses in the Indian rupee, which recorded its steepest decline in more than a month, closing above Rs91.47 per dollar in the first week of March, according to media reports.

Recently, the Bangladesh Bank held discussions with economists to assess the potential impact of the war. Experts advised the central bank to allow some exchange rate adjustment in order to protect foreign exchange reserves.

According to the latest data, the country's foreign exchange reserves stood at $30.76 billion on 5 March, calculated under the methodology of the International Monetary Fund, which is sufficient to cover more than four months of import payments.

Mobile financial services (MFS) are increasingly becoming a major channel for remittances sent by millions of Bangladeshis working abroad.

Remitters sent Tk 20,236 crore through MFS, excluding Nagad, in 2025, almost double the amount -- Tk 10,786 crore -- they sent home a year ago.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) data shows that MFS accounted for a small but growing portion of remittances transferred by Bangladeshis abroad. Roughly 90 percent of them work in the Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia.

This situation would have been inconceivable seven years ago. In 2019, migrant workers sent $18.3 billion or more than Tk 150,000 crore in remittances, out of which only Tk 315 crore came through MFS. Since then, remittances sent through MFS have grown 64 times, thanks to efforts by MFS providers, mainly bKash.

The country’s largest MFS provider has been a pioneer in delivering remittances to the doorsteps of migrant workers’ families. In 2025, these workers sent home $33 billion, or over Tk 400,000 crore, in remittances.

bKash alone handled Tk 20,000 crore in remittances last year. While the growth was substantial, the amount of remittance sent using MFS was only 5 percent of the total.

Industry stakeholders said MFS operators do not directly collect remittances from Bangladeshi migrants working abroad. Migrant workers themselves decide whether they want to send money to MFS accounts or take the more traditional route of sending remittances through bank accounts.

MFS is gaining popularity fast as it is more convenient and offers instant delivery to remote, rural areas. Another perk is that money can be sent to multiple MFS accounts instead of just one bank account, so remitters can transfer funds to a number of people without any hassle.

In the case of MFS, the ticket size is small. When one has to send a large amount of money, bank accounts are preferred. Additionally, there is a 2.5 percent government incentive on remittances. If a migrant worker sends Tk 1,000 as remittance, the recipient will receive Tk 1,025.

Promotional campaigns by MFS providers in Bangladesh’s migrant belts abroad have supported the growth.

Ali Ahmmed, chief commercial officer of bKash, said that currently, expatriates can send remittances directly to their loved ones’ bKash accounts through 135 international money transfer operators (MTOs) from over 170 countries, which get settled at 27 commercial banks in Bangladesh.

“This commitment to delivery has made bKash a preferred platform, resulting in the highest inward remittance flows among MFS channels in 2025,” he said.

“This momentum has also inspired more global money transfer companies to collaborate with us, offering exclusive Eid incentives for expatriates to further encourage the use of formal banking channels.”

A total of 41 lakh bKash accounts received these remittances, almost double that of the previous year.

While the BB data does not account for remittances sent through Nagad, Muhammad Zahidul Islam, head of Media and Communication of the platform, said they witnessed “tremendous growth” recently.

“Overall, remittance growth at Nagad exceeded 28 percent last year compared to the previous year, and the numbers continue to rise steadily,” he said.

Nagad has modernised the remittance receiving process, Islam noted, which enabled Bangladeshi expatriates to send their hard-earned money to their loved ones from anywhere in the world.

“Through our campaigns, we are also actively promoting remittances via legal channels, and these initiatives are delivering positive results, as reflected in the growing figures,” he added.

A senior BB official said policy support by the central bank -- allowing banks to transfer remittances through MFS providers -- gave the main boost.

“This way, money is sent to the end user. Almost everyone has MFS accounts,” he said.

Despite the surge in remittance transfers through MFS channels, these transactions accounted for only one percent of total transactions -- Tk 18.73 lakh crore -- in 2025.

BB, in its latest monthly review, said MFS has significantly expanded financial inclusion in Bangladesh by providing accessible, secure, and convenient digital financial services to millions of people, especially in rural and underserved areas.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) did not approve the proposal for FCS Holdings Ltd to acquire the shares of Yeakin Polymer held by the company's sponsor directors because the required No Objection Certificates (NOCs) for defaulted loans were not provided.

According to BSEC sources, the application was rejected because the applicants failed to submit the required No Objection Certificates (NOCs) from the relevant banks and financial institutions regarding the company's defaulted loans. Yeakin Polymer currently has outstanding loans of around Tk52 crore with banks and financial institutions.

Sources said FCS Holdings had sought approval from the commission to acquire a significant number of shares from the sponsor-directors of Yeakin Polymer. Under the plan, the share transfer would have enabled FCS Holdings to become a major shareholder in the company.

However, during the review process, the regulator found that Yeakin Polymer has defaulted loans with Islami Bank Bangladesh and Industrial and Infrastructure Development Finance Company Ltd (IIDFC). In such cases, obtaining consent from the lending institutions is mandatory before any transfer of sponsor-directors' shares can proceed.

The applicants failed to collect and submit the necessary NOCs from the lenders to the commission. As a result, the BSEC cancelled the application.

However, the commission has not completely closed the matter. Instead, it has instructed FCS Holdings to submit a fresh application along with NOCs related to the rescheduling of the company's bank loans.

This means that if the concerned banks and financial institutions agree to reschedule the loans or provide consent regarding the liabilities and issue the necessary NOCs, FCS Holdings may reapply to the commission seeking approval to acquire the shares.

Mohammad Harunor Rashid, managing director of Yeakin Polymer stated that they have already obtained No Objection Certificates (NOCs) from financial institutions- IIDFC for loans totaling Tk9 crore. However, the NOC from Islami Bank, which involves a loan of Tk43 crore, has not yet been received, though they expect to get it soon. The bank is currently assessing how it will recover its loan.

He also mentioned that the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has not directly rejected their application. Instead, BSEC has asked them to submit a new application along with the required NOCs. Once they receive the remaining NOC, they will submit the application promptly.
Infograph: TBS
Infograph: TBS

According to regulatory sources, FCS Holdings and three sponsor-directors of Yeakin Polymer jointly applied to the commission last September seeking approval to transfer 1,58,52,993 shares, representing about 21.50% of the company's total shares, to FCS Holdings.

The shares were to be transferred from Yeakin Polymer's chairman Chakladar Rezaunul Alam, director Kapita Packaging Solutions Ltd, and director Didarul Alam.

During the review process, the securities regulator asked the applicants to submit NOCs from the lenders due to the company's outstanding loans and financial obligations with multiple institutions.

However, the applicants were unable to provide the required approvals within the stipulated timeframe, prompting the commission to cancel the proposal and instruct them to submit a fresh application with the necessary lender approvals if they wish to proceed.

BSEC Officials familiar with the matter said that regulatory approval for such transfers is subject to ensuring that the interests of lenders and other stakeholders are protected, particularly when the shares involved are linked to outstanding liabilities.

Under the proposed arrangement, FCS Holdings planned to acquire the shares without making any direct cash payment to the selling sponsors. Instead, the company intended to assume responsibility for settling certain financial obligations of Yeakin Polymer, including bank loans and outstanding supplier payments.

Sources said the plan was part of a broader strategy to restructure the finances and management of the struggling polymer manufacturer.

If approved, the transaction would have allowed FCS Holdings to become a major shareholder and potentially play a key role in reviving the company's operations. The plan also included restructuring the board of directors, with representatives of FCS Holdings expected to join the board after the share transfer. However, the lack of lender consent halted the process.

Market analysts note that when shares are pledged against bank loans or linked to corporate liabilities, obtaining lender approval is essential. Without such consent, regulators generally do not allow ownership changes to proceed. Yeakin Polymer, a publicly listed company, has been facing business and financial challenges in recent years.

The company raised Tk20 crore from the capital market through an initial public offering (IPO) in 2016 to expand its operations. However, its performance declined after government policies encouraged the use of environmentally friendly jute sacks instead of polymer bags for agricultural packaging, reducing demand for the company's core products.

Since listing, Yeakin Polymer has struggled to maintain profitability and declared only a 1% cash dividend once after its IPO, reflecting weak financial performance.

Due to prolonged operational challenges and failure to meet certain listing requirements, the company has also been placed in the Z category on the stock exchanges.

The proposed takeover by FCS Holdings initially drew attention from investors who hoped the change in ownership could revive operations and improve the company's financial condition.

But with the commission cancelling the proposal due to incomplete documentation, the future of the planned takeover remains uncertain.

Rising food and service costs are eroding household purchasing power, particularly for lower-income groups whose consumption baskets are more heavily weighted toward essentials, according to the latest monthly economic update by the General Economics Division (GED).

The report released yesterday said the divergence between wage growth and price inflation widened further in January 2026.

While general inflation rose to 8.58 percent, wage growth remained stagnant at 8.08 percent, following 8.07 percent in December.

Since September 2025, inflation has consistently outpaced wages: inflation moved from 8.36 percent in September to 8.17 percent in October, 8.29 percent in November, 8.49 percent in December, and 8.58 percent in January.

In contrast, wage growth hovered narrowly between 8.01 percent and 8.08 percent over the same period.

“This sustained gap signals pressure on real incomes,” said the report, adding, “The persistence of this mismatch suggests that nominal wage adjustments are failing to keep pace with inflationary dynamics.”

“This identifies a need for coordinated wage and price management, as inflationary pressures continue to undermine real income stability,” added the report by GED under the planning ministry.

Food inflation rose to 8.29 percent in January from 7.71 percent in December, the report said, while non-food inflation moderated to 8.81 percent from 9.13 percent over the same period, narrowing the inflation differential between the two components.

“The recent trend indicates continued pressure from food prices within the overall inflation framework.”

Food remains the largest contributor to overall inflation and accounted for 43.06 percent in January, up 3 percentage points from December.

Housing and utilities contributed 15.05 percent, while miscellaneous goods and services accounted for 9.31 percent.

“The increase in food’s contribution suggests a greater concentration of inflationary pressure within essential consumption items.”

The report said notable increases were recorded in clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, and food.

It, however, said the internal composition warrants closer examination, citing that the contribution from rice to inflation decreased, but contributions from other food components continue to sustain overall food inflation.

“Despite a good harvest, higher vegetable prices are largely attributed to increased transportation costs and unhealthy profit motives among wholesale and middlemen traders. This highlights the need for improved supply chain management of food items, particularly rice, vegetables, and fish, to contain inflationary pressures more effectively.”

“Closer examination of item-wise prices at the market level remains essential for targeted policy action.”

The GED report also highlighted lower-than-targeted revenue collection by the National Board of Revenue and weak implementation of the government’s Annual Development Programme (ADP), suggesting urgent reform in planning, procurement, and fund release.

“Policymakers now face a trade-off: emergency fast-tracking with higher fiduciary risks versus focusing on fewer priority projects for quality outcomes. Without systemic reforms in planning, procurement, and fund release, fiscal year 2025-26 is poised to record the lowest ADP implementation rate, undermining infrastructure delivery and development goals.”

The GED also flagged risks from the high reliance on the apparel sector for exports.

At the same time, the very low share of capital machinery in total imports suggests limited investment-driven expansion, indicating that the recent rise in import payments is primarily consumption- or input-driven rather than linked to capacity-building.

“Taken together, the combination of strong apparel exports and weak capital machinery imports underscores the need for policies that promote investment in productive capacity and diversification, which are critical for sustaining external stability and supporting medium-term structural transformation.”

The GED report said the new government should give priority to attracting investment, generating employment, and reining in inflation to build a solid foundation for the economy.

“Restoring confidence among both local and foreign investors, further boosting foreign exchange reserves, and ensuring exchange rate stability will remain essential to strengthening overall economic stability.”

The US-Israeli war with Iran could leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the week-old conflict ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics, and elevated risks to shipping.

The outlook poses a global economic threat and a political vulnerability for US President Donald Trump leading into the midterm elections, with voters sensitive to energy bills and unfavorable to foreign entanglements.

"The market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption, as refinery shutdowns and export constraints begin to impair crude processing and regional supply flows," JP Morgan analysts said in a research note on Friday.

The conflict has already led to the suspension of around a fifth of global crude and natural gas supply, as Tehran targets ships in the vital Strait of Hormuz between its shores and Oman, and attacks energy infrastructure across the region.

Global oil prices have surged more than 25% since the start of the war, driving up fuel prices for consumers worldwide.

A nearly complete shutdown of the Strait means the region's giant oil producers - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait - have had to suspend shipments of as much as 140 million barrels of oil - equal to about 1.4 days of global demand - to global refiners.

As a result, oil and gas storage at facilities in the Middle East Gulf are rapidly filling, forcing oil fields in Iraq and Kuwait to cut oil production, with the United Arab Emirates likely to cut next, analysts, traders and sources said.

"At some point soon, everyone will also shut in if vessels do not come," said a ⁠source with a state oil company in the region, who asked not to be named.

Oilfields forced to shut in across the Middle East as a result of the shipping disruptions could take a while to return to normal, said Amir Zaman, head of the Americas commercial team at Rystad Energy.

"The conflict could be ended, but it could take days or weeks or months, depending on the types of fields, age of the field, the type of shut-in that they've had to do before you can get production back up to what it once was," he said.

Iranian forces, meanwhile, are targeting regional energy infrastructure - including refineries and terminals - forcing them to shut down too, with some of those operations badly damaged by attacks and in need of repairs.

Qatar declared force majeure on its huge volumes of gas exports on Wednesday after Iranian drone attacks and it may take at least a month to return to normal production ‌levels, sources told Reuters. Qatar supplies 20% of global LNG.

Saudi Aramco’s mammoth Ras Tanura refinery and crude export terminal, meanwhile, has also closed due to attacks, with no details on damage.

The White House has justified the attack on Iran, saying the country posed an imminent threat to the United States, although it has not provided details. Trump has also said he was concerned about Iran's efforts to obtain a nuclear weapon.

DANGER IN THE STRAIT

A quick end to the war would soothe markets. But a return to pre-war supply and pricing could take weeks or months, depending on the extent of the damage to infrastructure and shipping.

"Considering physical damage due to Iranian strikes, so far we have not seen anything that would be considered structural, although the risk remains as long as the war continues," said Joel Hancock, energy analyst, Natixis CIB.

The biggest question for energy supplies is how and when the Strait of Hormuz will become safe for shipping again. Trump has offered naval escorts to oil tankers and promised US insurance support to vessels in the region.

But safety in the waterway may be elusive, as Iran has the capacity to sustain drone attacks on shipping for months, intelligence and military sources have said.

The conflict could also encourage countries to top up their strategic petroleum reserves in the weeks and months after the conflict ends, by exposing the dangers of thin inventories. That would increase demand for oil and support prices.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL RISK

In the meantime, the disruption in energy shipments is reverberating through supply chains and economies in import-reliant Asia, which sources 60% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

In India, state-run Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals MRPL.NS declared force majeure on gasoline export cargoes, sources said this week, joining a growing number of refineries in the region unable to fulfill sales contracts due to lack of supply.

At least two refineries in China have cut runs. China, a big supplier to the region, has asked refineries to suspend fuel exports. Thailand has also suspended fuel exports, while Vietnam has suspended crude shipments.

Disruption has given Russia a boost. Prices for Russian crude cargoes have risen as the US has given Indian refiners a 30-day waiver to buy Russian crude to substitute for lost Middle East supply. Washington had pressured India to cut Russian oil imports under the threat of tariffs.

In Japan, the No. 2 global LNG importer, baseload power futures for Tokyo for the fiscal year starting in April jumped more than a third this week on the EEX in anticipation of higher fuel prices. And in Seoul, drivers queued up at petrol stations in anticipation of rising pump prices.

For European consumers, the crisis in gas supplies and the higher prices are a double whammy. The region was hit the hardest by the disruption to gas supplies due to sanctions on Russian energy imports after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Europe turned to LNG imports to substitute for Russian pipeline gas. And Europe now needs to buy 180 more LNG cargoes than it did last year to fill gas storage to the levels needed before next winter.

The supply risks to the United States are fewer, as the country has grown in recent years into the world’s largest oil and gas producer. But US crude and fuel prices rise in tandem with international crude markets, so pump prices for gasoline and diesel are affected even if domestic supply is plentiful.

US average retail gasoline, for example, hit $3.32 a gallon nationally on Friday, up 34 cents over last week, according to AAA. Diesel prices, meanwhile, hit $4.33 a gallon, up from $3.76 a gallon a week ago.

Higher prices at the pump mark a major risk for Trump and his fellow Republicans as they head into midterm elections in November.

"Gasoline prices are psychologically powerful," said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial. "They are the inflation number that consumers see every single day."

Authorities have shut five of the country’s six urea fertiliser factories as a precaution amid fears of gas supply disruptions caused by the widening war in the Middle East and Iran’s closure of the Hormuz Strait, a key global energy route.

From Wednesday, gas supplies to the urea plants, including one privately owned unit, were suspended as part of an energy rationing, said officials at the state-run Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC).

The corporation runs seven fertiliser factories, including four producing urea.

The factories affected are Ghorashal Polash Fertiliser Public Ltd Company, Chittagong Urea Fertiliser Factory Ltd (CUFL), Jamuna Fertiliser Company Ltd, Ashuganj Fertiliser & Chemical Company Ltd, and the privately run Karnaphuli Fertiliser Company Limited (KAFCO). Of these, production has remained suspended in the Ashuganj factory for months.

Officials say that now only the Shahjalal Fertiliser Factory remains operational, though even this may not continue for long.

However, two state-owned non-urea factories that do not rely on gas remain open.

The country meets nearly 30 percent of its gas demand, equivalent to 2,650 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), through imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) as domestic output continues to fall short.

Officials said about 197 million cubic feet of gas per day are required to run the five urea factories at full capacity. The factories were already suffering from an inconsistent gas supply before the shutdown.

The suspension of urea output comes at a critical time for farmers planting Boro, the main dry season rice crop, which accounts for more than half of Bangladesh’s annual 40 million tonnes of grain.

Bangladesh requires more than 26 lakh tonnes of urea each year. Around 40 percent is produced locally, while the remainder is imported from Middle Eastern countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

Two-thirds of the annual urea demand falls between November and March, mainly for Boro rice cultivation.

Contacted, Md Moniruzzaman, director of production and research at BCIC, said the corporation currently holds 468,000 tonnes of urea in stock, enough to cover demand for the rest of the Boro season.

“So, there will be no shortage of the fertiliser during the current Boro rice cultivation season,” he said.

The BCIC officials said they were asked to keep production shut for 15 days. The closed factories together have a total daily capacity of around 7,100 tonnes. This means more than 1 lakh tonnes of urea production will be affected.

Although the target for fertiliser output in the 2025-26 fiscal year was 10 lakh tonnes, only 550,000 tonnes have been produced in the eight months to February, according to officials.

One of them expressed doubts about meeting the target in the remaining four months.

Engineer Syed Abu Naser Md Saleh, general manager of the engineering services division at Karnaphuli Gas Distribution Company, said that gas supply to the two fertiliser plants has been suspended since Wednesday in line with government instructions.

“Around 70-80 million cubic feet of gas used to be supplied to the two plants,” he said.

Riaz Uddin Ahmed, executive secretary of the Bangladesh Fertiliser Association, said the urea factory closures are unlikely to affect the current Boro season.

Planned imports of non-urea fertiliser for this fiscal year have already been completed, he added.

“So, I see no problem until June-July of this year. We have to be ready for the later months. If the crisis [in the Middle East] lingers, there will be a problem,” he said. “We should start exploring alternative sources to avoid any risk.”

Unilever Consumer Care Limited has recommended a 420% cash dividend for its shareholders for the year ended 31 December 2025, according to a price-sensitive disclosure approved on 5 March.

The company had declared a higher 520% cash dividend for the previous year. The proposed dividend will be placed for approval at the annual general meeting scheduled for 18 May, while the record date to determine eligible shareholders has been fixed for 6 April.

The healthcare and consumer products manufacturer reported improved profitability during the year. Earnings per share rose 19% year-on-year to Tk41.21. However, the net asset value per share declined by 8.30% to Tk116.30.

Despite higher profits, the company posted a negative net operating cash flow per share of Tk21.54, compared to a positive Tk25.62 in the previous year.

In its disclosure, the company said profit growth was mainly driven by strong revenue performance and improved operational efficiency. It also benefited from a one-off gain arising from the reassessment of prior obligations related to technology and trademark royalty payments. Additionally, efficient investment of surplus cash contributed to significantly higher net finance income during the year.

The decline in net asset value per share was attributed to the higher dividend payout in the 2025 financial year compared to the earnings generated during the same period.

Explaining the sharp change in operating cash flow, the company said that although profit increased, net operating cash flow per share dropped significantly due to the settlement of all outstanding Usance Payable at Sight (UPAS) letters of credit during the year, without availing any new UPAS facilities.

As a result, the company experienced a substantial cash outflow during the period compared to the operating profit generated.

UPAS is a widely used trade finance instrument structured as a letter of credit that allows importers to defer payment while exporters receive immediate payment.

Under this arrangement, banks bridge the payment timing gap by financing the transaction, enabling buyers to pay later while ensuring sellers are paid at sight.

Unilever Consumer Care shares closed 0.37% down at Tk2,153 each on Thursday at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).

According to the shareholding report for January, sponsors and directors hold 92.80% shares in the company, while institutional investors have 3.58%, foreign investors have 0.11% and the remaining 3.51% are held by public shareholders.

Deposit growth in banks hit a five-year high at the end of December 2025 -- owing to a gradual recovery in confidence among savers.

Banks in the country recorded Tk 21 lakh crore in savings at the end of last year, which was 11.51 percent higher year-on-year, according to quarterly statistics of scheduled banks published by the Bangladesh Bank (BB).

With this growth, deposits in 61 banks crossed the Tk 20 lakh crore mark, the highest so far.

“It appears that people’s confidence in banks is gradually being restored,” said Md Mahiul Islam, deputy managing director at BRAC Bank.

But not all banks registered an increased flow of savings. The deposit surge is limited to some seven to eight banks, he said.

The BB data showed that private banks, including Islamic banks, accounted for 69.52 percent of the total deposits, followed by state banks and foreign banks.

In 2024, the growth of deposits in the banking sector slowed due to a confidence crisis centring on some banks that suffered from high loan irregularities and faced problems returning money to savers on demand, even though most banks offered high interest on savings.

The BB had to inject funds into those weak banks to help them overcome a liquidity crisis.

A top banker at a private bank said a number of banks still face challenges in attracting savers.

The Bangladesh Bank Quarterly -- another report by the central bank -- said, “A gradual easing of inflationary pressure apparently halted dissaving by households and businesses, leading to strong inflows into time and savings deposits.”

It said the robust expansion of bank deposits reflects increased savings and a higher public propensity to hold financial assets in the formal banking sector.

“This trend was further supported by heightened public confidence in the banking industry, likely resulting from recent political developments that fostered greater stability and trust,” it said.

Despite deposit expansion, banks recorded the slowest growth in loans and advances in 2025 amid muted investment demand from the private sector due to rising interest rates and banks’ cautious lending to avoid a buildup of default loans.

Banks gave Tk 17.77 lakh crore in loans and advances, up 5.6 percent from a year ago.

The BB in its quarterly said advance growth remained steady, reflecting banks’ cautious lending amid high NPLs and tighter monetary policy.

Qazi Saleemul Huq, director of GQ Ball Pen Industries, has announced plans to gift company shares worth Tk10.50 crore to his sister, Shermin Huq, a general shareholder, marking a transfer of ownership within the family.

According to a disclosure filed with the stock exchanges today (5 March), Saleemul Huq – who currently holds 23.44 lakh shares – will transfer 2 lakh shares, representing ar 2.24% stake in the company, as a gift outside the trading system of the exchanges.

The transfer is expected to be completed within 30 working days starting from 3 March.

After eight consecutive years of losses and steadily declining sales, the company's shares have surged significantly in recent months. Despite weak business fundamentals – including low sales and continued losses – the company's market capitalisation has climbed to about Tk474 crore, even though its annual sales are only around Tk2 crore.

According to data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange, GQ Ball Pen's share price closed at Tk525.10 each today.

The company manufactures various types of ballpoint pens and distributes them to stationery shops through its distributor network as well as to institutional buyers through sales personnel.

GQ Ball Pen has a paid-up capital of Tk8.93 crore, divided into 89.28 lakh shares, with about 60% of the shares held by general investors.

China has told its largest oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline, Bloomberg News reported Thursday, citing unidentified sources, as the war in the Middle East risks an energy supply crunch.

China is a net importer of oil and is one of several major Asian economies that depend on the vital Strait of Hormuz for energy. Traffic through the strait is currently blocked.

The Middle East was the source of 57 percent of China’s direct seaborne crude imports in 2025, according to analytics firm Kpler.

Officials from China’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, met refinery representatives “and verbally called for a temporary suspension of refined product shipments that would begin immediately”, Bloomberg said Thursday, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

“The refiners were asked to stop signing new contracts and to negotiate the cancellation of already-agreed shipments,” it said.

A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry denied knowledge of the suspension when asked about it at a regular news conference.

PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Sinochem Group and private refiner Zhejiang Petrochemical regularly obtain fuel export quotas from the government, Bloomberg said.

The companies did not respond to AFP’s requests for comment.

Bangladesh’s top economists have suggested forming an inter-ministerial crisis committee to address public panic over the potential economic shock from the Middle East crisis.

They recommended that the committee provide regular briefings to prevent unnecessary alarm. The proposal came during a meeting between the Bangladesh Bank governor and eight leading economists at the central bank headquarters today.

Deputy governors, members of the Monetary Policy Committee, and the chief economist of Bangladesh Bank also attended the meeting.

Md Mostaqur Rahman, the new governor of Bangladesh Bank, convened the discussion in light of the ongoing Middle East crisis.

Central bank officials said the economists advised against using foreign exchange reserves under any circumstances. Since reserves are limited, alternative methods of paying for oil imports must be explored.

“If necessary, agreements should be reached with exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia. Opportunities for deferred payment should be sought, or loans could be taken from the Asian Development Bank or other sources to settle fuel import bills,” they said.

The meeting also emphasized the need to encourage remittances during this period. Incentives may be offered to motivate expatriates to send money through formal channels.

Cutting the policy rate should not be considered at this time, given the current situation.

Among those present were Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD); Fahmida Khatun, executive director of CPD; former chief economist of Bangladesh Bank Mustafa K Mujeri; Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID); Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM); Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh; AK Enamul Haque, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS); and Nazmus Sadat Khan, senior economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange fell for the third day in a row as cautious investors today offloaded shares in response to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a volatile global energy market.

The benchmark DSEX index plunged 82 points, or 1.54%, to settle at 5,241, bringing the total losses over the last three sessions to 293 points

Blue-chip stocks were not spared, with the DS30 index dropping 34 points, or 1.65%, to settle at 2,012, while the shariah-based DSES index slipped slightly by 14 points to close at 1,049.

Market breadth remained sharply negative, as 308 issues declined compared to only 52 advancing, with 33 stocks unchanged. Turnover fell 21.13% to Tk459 crore from Tk582 crore in the previous session, while the bourse's total market capitalisation shrank by Tk3,096 crore, settling at Tk6,97,952 crore in a single session.

Market insiders highlighted that the sell-off is closely linked to both international and domestic economic uncertainties. The ongoing Middle East conflict, particularly involving Iran, has driven up global crude oil and LNG prices, creating fears of energy supply disruptions for import-dependent economies like Bangladesh.

The international benchmark Brent crude oil surged from around $70 to $80-$84 per barrel, marking a 10-15% increase, while the Asian LNG benchmark Japan Korea Marker (JKM) jumped from $13-$14/MMBtu to $24-$25/MMBtu, an extraordinary 70-80% rise.

Insiders said these higher energy costs will directly affect Bangladesh by increasing fuel import bills, raising electricity generation costs, and potentially forcing the government to adjust tariffs or increase subsidies.

Against this backdrop of uncertainty, investors opted for caution, triggering broad-based selling. Analysts warned that continued geopolitical developments and fluctuations in global energy markets could prolong market volatility in the coming sessions.

Among the top gainers, International Leasing and Financial Services Limited led with a 10% rise, followed by FAS Finance & Investment Limited and Fareast Finance & Investment Limited, each up 9.09%. On the losing side, First Finance Limited suffered the biggest drop at 10%, followed by Prime Finance & Investment Limited, down 8%, and ICB Islamic Bank Limited, which fell 7.89%.

Trading activity remained concentrated in a few high-volume stocks, with Orion Infusion, City Bank, and Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag Industries emerging as the most actively traded shares, demonstrating significant participation by large investors despite overall market weakness.

All major large-cap sectors recorded losses, highlighting widespread selling pressure. Food & Allied was the worst performer, down 2.44%, followed by Banking at 2.36%, and Non-Bank Financial Institutions at 2.29%. Other sectors also declined: Engineering fell 1.36%, Fuel & Power down 1.20%, Pharmaceuticals dropped 0.99%, and Telecommunication slipped 0.23%. Block trades contributed 4.7% of total turnover, reflecting ongoing institutional participation.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also ended lower, with the CASPI index falling 192 points to 14,825, while the CSCX index declined 115 points to 9,061, signalling negative sentiment across both major bourses.

The auditor of National Feed Mills, a listed company on the stock exchanges, has flagged several non-compliances, including understated purchases, overstated profits, lower reported finance expenses, unpaid workers' participation fund contributions, and a deficit in the unclaimed dividend account.

The auditor's qualified opinion for the year ended 30 June was published on the stock exchanges' website on Thursday (5 March).

The auditor pointed out that National Feed Mills reported Tk7.83 crore in material purchases, while its VAT return showed Tk10 crore.

The auditor's report said there is a possibility that the company's management understated purchases by Tk2.26 crore and overstated the net profit for the year, which could significantly affect the company's earnings per share (EPS).

"Also, we did not find a ledger, vouchers or other supporting evidence for material purchases during the year," the auditor said.

The audit report also said National Feed reported Tk4.40 crore as interest charges in the statement of financial position and Tk2.44 crore as financial expenses for interest on term loans.

"Therefore, the management of the company understated financial expenses by Tk1.96 crore and overstated profit, which could significantly affect EPS," it said.

Moreover, the auditor said it did not find the interest expense ledger, the loan statement of Tk25.78 crore from Bank Asia, or supporting evidence of loan repayment or adjustment amounting to Tk1.96 crore during the period.

The company has Tk2.48 crore in the workers' profit participation fund, but the amount has remained unpaid for several years.

Deficit in unclaimed dividend account

According to the auditor, the company showed Tk3.15 lakh in the unclaimed dividend account, which has remained unclaimed for more than three years.

The fund is supposed to be transferred to the Capital Market Stabilisation Fund (CMSF), but the company's management did not transfer the amount to the fund.

The auditor said the closing balance in the unclaimed dividend account was Tk77,020. Therefore, there is a shortage of Tk2.38 lakh in the dividend bank account.

Inventory items unverified

In its financial statement, National Feed reported Tk55.31 crore in inventory at the end of June 2025.

The auditor said it did not find a slow-moving items list, a damaged items list, a net realisable value (NRV) test, an inventory valuation report, counting sheets, or other supporting evidence.

The NRV test is an accounting procedure used to ensure inventory is not overstated on the balance sheet and is valued at the lower of cost or market value.

"No physical inventory verification was conducted by us due to management unawareness," the auditor said.

When asked about the non-compliances in the financial statements, Md Jahidul Islam, acting company secretary of National Feed Mills, declined to comment and asked to be contacted next Sunday.

Gold rose on Friday after softer US payrolls data kept hopes of a Federal ‌Reserve rate cut alive, but remained on track for its first weekly decline in five weeks as a stronger dollar kept gains in check.

Spot gold was up 1.4 percent at $5,149.14 per ounce as of 01:31 p.m. ET (1831 GMT), ​but was down 2.4 percent this week. US gold futures for April delivery settled 1.6 percent higher at $5,158.70.

“An alarmingly ​weak payrolls report that saw heavy private sector job losses along with higher wages whispers stagflation; let’s see if this is enough to help gold recover from what ​has been a disappointing week,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

Data showed that nonfarm payrolls decreased ​by 92,000 jobs last month, compared with economists’ expectations for a 59,000 gain, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent.

Kuwait said it had implemented a ​precautionary reduction in crude ‌oil production and refining throughput following the ​ongoing attacks by ​Iran against Kuwait and "Iranian threats ⁠to safe passage ​of ships through the ​Strait of Hormuz," Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) said in a ​statement on Saturday.

The ​state oil company said the ‌move ⁠was part of its "risk management and business continuity strategy."

It said ​the adjustment ​was ⁠strictly precautionary and would be ​reviewed as the ​situation ⁠develops, and it remained ready to restore ⁠production ​levels once conditions ​allow.

A shortage of edible oil has emerged in several markets across the capital, as consumers rush to collect more than demand fearing a price hike due to the ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran.

Some grocery stores still have one-litre and two-litre bottles on their shelves; five-litre bottles have almost disappeared from many markets.

Retailers said supply from companies has declined over the past week, leaving them unable to stock larger bottles. However, major producers deny reducing deliveries and instead blame stockpiling at the dealer level for the shortage.

A visit to Meradia Bazaar and nearby shops in South Banasree yesterday (7 March) revealed that no five-litre bottles of soybean oil were available. Even at the Shwapno outlet in the area, shoppers could not find any soybean oil.

A Shwapno salesperson said the stock ran out quickly. "Every customer who came in the morning bought a bottle. Now we have none left."

The same situation prevailed at the Agora outlet in the area, as there were no five-litre bottles available, and only a few two-litre bottles of Fresh brand soybean oil remained. To ensure more customers could purchase the product, staff members allowed each buyer to take only one bottle.

Most shops had no soybean oil in Badda and Shahjadpur, while a few larger stores managed to keep three or four bottles of two-litre packs on display.

Shahjadpur shopkeeper Md Saiful Islam said companies rarely deliver five-litre bottles and only occasionally supply two-litre ones, citing the shortage of oil.

Another seller, Ilias Hossain, said his shop had not received any oil deliveries for two weeks.

When contacted, Taslim Shahriar, deputy general manager of Meghna Group, which produces Fresh brand soybean oil, said they supplied large volumes in January and February.

"We have imported additional oil to ensure stable supply during Ramadan. More than 50,000 tonnes are being distributed every month, so there should be no crisis," he said.

Echoing Taslim, City Group Executive Director Biswajit Saha said they have not reduced supply, though some smaller companies may be struggling to import oil due to complications with letters of credit.

The crisis was created due to increased demand in Ramadan and stockpiling by some consumers and traders, he added.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman today (7 March) said the government has taken steps to make the zakat management system more effective and targeted, noting that zakat can play an important role in poverty alleviation if it is distributed in a planned and organised way.

"Zakat is one of the five pillars of Islam. I would like to share with you a plan regarding zakat management in the country. According to Islamic teachings, many wealthy people in our society pay zakat on their own initiative. Some also pay their zakat through the government's Zakat Board," he said.

If zakat is distributed in a planned and organised manner can make a significant contribution to reducing poverty, the prime minister said at an iftar mahfil hosted for ulema, Islamic scholars and orphans at State Guest House, Jamuna.

"In this context, the government has taken steps to make zakat management more effective and target-oriented," he said.

The prime minister mentioned that various research reports suggest the amount of zakat collected in Bangladesh exceeds Tk20,000 to Tk25,000 crore every year and some estimates put the figure even higher.

However, he said the absence of a planned and organised distribution system means that although wealthy individuals fulfil their zakat obligation, questions remain about how effectively the funds help reduce poverty.

"As far as I know, Islamic teachings encourage zakat to be distributed in such a way that a recipient may not need to receive zakat again the following year after receiving it once," the Prime Minister observed.

He said there are currently around four crore families in the country, both rich and poor.

If poor and extremely poor families are identified and five lakh families are given Tk1 lakh each in zakat every year in phases, most of those families may not need to receive zakat again the following year, Tarique Rahman said.

"If zakat is distributed in a targeted and well-planned manner, it could play an effective role in poverty alleviation in the country within 10 to 15 years through zakat management alone," he added.

The prime minister said if the idea of zakat management for poverty alleviation is considered logical, ulema and religious scholars can play the biggest role in raising awareness among wealthy people.

He also said the existing Zakat Board under the Ministry of Religious Affairs can be reorganised with leading Islamic scholars, religious experts and government officials to work more effectively for poverty alleviation through zakat management.

"By using zakat for poverty alleviation, there is an opportunity to present Bangladesh as a model in the Islamic world," the prime minister said.