Bangladesh and other South Asian countries could face lower remittances from the Middle East as the ongoing conflict in the region weakens labour demand and squeezes migrant worker incomes, according to new research by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The report, released yesterday, estimates that the conflict could lower economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific by up to 1.3 percentage points over 2026-2027 and push inflation up by 3.2 percentage points if energy market disruptions persist beyond a year.

Nearly half of Bangladesh’s more than $30 billion in annual remittances come from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait together accounted for 86 percent of Bangladeshi migrant workers who secured jobs abroad in fiscal year 2024-25, according to the Bangladesh Economic Review 2025.

The disruption is already visible. Hundreds of Middle East-bound flights from Bangladesh have been cancelled since the escalation of the US-Israel war on Iran, mostly affecting migrant workers.

The ADB warned that a remittance shock could compound the effects of higher energy prices and tighter external financing conditions by simultaneously weakening foreign currency inflows and household demand.

“This channel is especially important because remittance dependence does not always align with exposure based on trade or energy indicators, and may therefore represent an additional source of macroeconomic vulnerability,” the report said.

The report said remittances to many Asian economies have historically exhibited countercyclical behaviour, often increasing and providing an important buffer during periods of stress.

“However, the current shock may differ, as it is centred in the Middle East -- a significant migration destination and source of remittances,” the report said, adding that economies in South Asia appear particularly exposed, with inflows from the Middle East exceeding 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in some cases.

The ADB brief said remittances from Middle Eastern economies accounted for 8.1 percent of Nepal’s GDP, 5.6 percent of Pakistan’s GDP, and 2.9 percent of Sri Lanka’s GDP in 2021.

For Bangladesh, remittances accounted for 2.8 percent of its GDP, according to estimates from five years ago.

The ADB also warned that higher energy prices could fuel inflation across the region, with the largest impact in South Asian economies.

The conflict affects economies in Asia and the Pacific through higher energy prices, supply chain and trade disruptions, and tighter financial conditions. Tourism and remittances could also be impacted, the Manila-based multilateral lender said.

“Higher oil and gas prices feed into energy and producer prices, with pass-through also determined by each economy’s dependence on imported energy and the degree of domestic energy price regulation. Because the shocks are assumed to be temporary, inflation moderates in 2027 as energy prices normalise,” it said.

Bangladesh’s external debt remained largely stable in the last quarter of 2025, with a slight increase mainly driven by public sector borrowing.

According to Bangladesh Bank (BB) data, the country’s gross external debt rose to $113.52 billion in October-December, from $112.22 billion in July-September -- an increase by $1.3 billion or over 1 percent compared to the previous quarter.

This reflects a relatively slow growth in debt in the final quarter, following fluctuations earlier in the year.

Public sector external debt grew from $92.56 billion in September to $93.46 billion in December, an increase of about $900 million, according to central bank data.

Within this, general government debt edged up to $80.94 billion from $80.48 billion, while government loans rose slightly to $80.36 billion from $79.86 billion, as spending on development projects remained slow.

As a result, foreign aid for development projects has not been disbursed despite a large pipeline of assistance, so overall foreign debt has not grown significantly.

Liabilities of other public corporations also increased, reaching $12.52 billion from $12.08 billion, highlighting the government’s ongoing reliance on external financing to support public spending and development projects.

Private sector external debt showed more variation. It fell in the September quarter to $19.66 billion from $19.84 billion in June, reflecting businesses’ cautious approach amid tighter external financing. However, the trend reversed in the final quarter, with private debt rising to $20.06 billion in December.

The increase was mainly due to short-term borrowing, as long-term debt remained flat, and investment activity has yet to pick up.

Short-term liabilities grew to $10.19 billion from $9.66 billion, with short-term loans rising sharply to $3.11 billion from $2.71 billion. Exposure through offshore banking units also rose during this period.

Meanwhile, long-term private sector debt edged down slightly to $9.87 billion from $10 billion, showing low demand for longer-term external financing.

In the public sector, long-term external liabilities remained concentrated in the central bank and state-owned enterprises.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) fell short of its revenue target by 28 percent during July-February of fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26), leaving a gap of Tk 71,472 crore.

As per provisional data released yesterday, the shortfall came despite a 12 percent year-on-year rise in collections to Tk 2.54 lakh crore, buoyed largely by robust VAT (value-added tax) receipts from domestic trade and economic activity.

The deficit underscores the widening gap between the tax authority’s ambitions and ground reality. The board has consistently missed its target over the last decade.

Yet, in late November, the previous interim government had revised the NBR’s full-year target upward to Tk 5.54 lakh crore from Tk 4.99 lakh crore, following strong first-quarter collections.

Meeting that goal would now require mobilising around Tk 3 lakh crore over the remaining four months of the fiscal year, an outcome economists say is highly unrealistic given persistent inflation, sluggish development spending, and broader economic weakness.

Amid this sluggish revenue performance, the government is increasingly turning to borrowing to finance its expenditures.

According to provisional data from Bangladesh Bank, net borrowing from the banking sector crossed Tk 48,800 crore by January 25, nearly five times higher than the Tk 10,558 crore borrowed during the same period a year earlier, highlighting the growing fiscal strain.

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has warned that Bangladesh’s revenue targets for the current fiscal year are getting increasingly out of reach, urging a shift toward more realistic planning and stronger domestic resource mobilisation.

According to a paper by Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional director (research) at CPD, the total revenue shortfall for FY26 will likely exceed Tk 1 lakh crore, much like what was recorded in FY25, The Daily Star reported in February.

According to the think tank, the annual revenue growth target for FY26 was set at 34.5 percent over the previous year’s actual collection, an ambitious benchmark from the outset. But with collections lagging in the first half, the pressure has now shifted sharply to the remaining months.

“If the annual growth target is to be met, tax collection will need to increase by 59.4 percent during February to July of FY26,” said Fahmida Khatun, executive director of CPD, at a briefing on FY27 budget recommendations this month.

“This appears highly unlikely given the current pace of revenue collection.”

Against this backdrop, CPD has emphasised the need to strengthen domestic resource mobilisation without placing an excessive burden on citizens. The call comes as the current ruling party has set an ambitious goal of raising the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio to 15 percent by 2035, up from 6.8 percent in FY25.

However, CPD cautioned that such a target must be backed by a comprehensive and well-sequenced action plan, alongside consistent implementation and strong political commitment -- areas where Bangladesh has historically struggled.

To expand the revenue base, the think tank suggested exploring new avenues of taxation, including meaningful levies on wealth and property, as well as capturing revenue from the rapidly growing digital economy.

The government’s manifesto also includes proposals to introduce a modern property and wealth tax regime, which CPD sees as a step in the right direction if properly designed and enforced.

At the same time, CPD called for a rationalisation of tax incentives.

“Starting in FY27, all ad hoc provisions of tax incentives should be discontinued,” Khatun said, stressing the need for transparency and predictability in the tax system.

Yet, the think tank acknowledged the political and economic realities ahead. With businesses facing a challenging environment, demand for incentives is likely to rise in FY27.

In this context, CPD urged the NBR to exercise greater caution and selectivity in granting tax breaks.

A medium-term strategy to gradually phase out existing tax exemptions should also be put in place, it added, to avoid sudden shocks while improving revenue efficiency over time.

Another critical area highlighted by CPD is the large volume of disputed tax claims stuck in the system. Accelerating their resolution through the Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) mechanism could unlock significant revenue, the think tank noted.

Within the July-February tax receipts, VAT from domestic activity was the largest contributor, accounting for 38 percent of total collection, rising 14.83 percent year on year to Tk 97,281 crore.

Direct taxes -- income and corporate -- accounted for 33.5 percent, climbing 13 percent to Tk 85,136 crore. Import tariffs grew more modestly, up 8.8 percent to Tk 71,912 crore.

Akij Food & Beverage Ltd secured approval from the capital market regulatory body to raise Tk 500 crore through issuing bonds, aiming to strengthen its financing base.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) gave the approval yesterday at a commission meeting at its office in the capital.

According to an official BSEC press release, the company will raise the fund through floating an unsecured, non-convertible, fully redeemable zero-coupon bond with a tenure ranging from six months to a maximum of five years.

A zero-coupon bond is a debt instrument that does not pay interim coupons but instead trades at a deep discount, rendering profit at maturity, when the security is redeemed for its full face value.

The bond will be issued to banks, non-bank financial institutions, insurance companies, institutional investors, and high-net-worth individuals through private placement. Each unit of the bond will carry a face value of Tk 10 lakh.

Sena Insurance PLC will act as the trustee for the bond, while North Star Investments (BD) Limited has been appointed as the fund arranger.

According to the company’s website, Akij Food started its journey in 2006. It exports its products to over 40 countries in Asia and Africa. The company holds several popular brands including Mojo, Frutika, and Speed.

Major stock indexes eased on Thursday as Brent oil futures rose above $105 a barrel, with Iran's denial of any talks with the US dimming hopes of a quick resolution to the nearly one-month-long Middle East war.

Global debt markets also sold off, pushing yields higher, while safe-haven buying boosted the US dollar.

Prospects of a prolonged war in the Middle East fanned worries about energy supply disruptions. Oil and European natural gas rose, with Brent futuresLCOc1 up $4.77 at $106.99 a barrel and US crude futures CLc1 up at $93.64.

US President Donald Trump warned Iran on Thursday to "get serious" about a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had earlier said Tehran was reviewing the US proposal but that there were no talks on winding down the war. Iran on Thursday launched multiple waves of missiles at Israel.

The war, triggered by US–Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, has rattled global markets and effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

Stocks fell "as oil prices resumed their upward climb", said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

"Unfortunately, we're in a market that's being driven by oil prices. The rhetoric back and forth is continuing, and until talks begin, the market is going to be subject to the price of oil," he said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell 75.50 points, or 0.19 percent, to 46,342.69, the S&P 500 fell 43.59 points, or 0.68 percent, to 6,547.14 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC fell 216.95 points, or 1.02 percent, to 21,705.16.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS dropped 6.75 points, or 0.68 percent, to 988.71. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.64 percent.

Japan's Nikkei ended down 0.3 percent, while worries over rising energy costs hammered South Korea's KOSPI, which slumped 3.2 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.9 percent and China's blue chips dropped 1.3 percent.

The Philippines held an unscheduled central bank meeting due to the turmoil, while Germany's central bank head said an ECB rate hike next month was "an option".

Fears of a 2022-style inflation shock have seen traders fully price out any chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, further supporting the dollar.

Germany's two-year bond yield DE2YT=RR, sensitive to European Central Bank rate expectations, rose after falling on Wednesday. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Worries about persistent inflation also drove US Treasury yields higher. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR was last up 4.2 basis points at 4.37 percent. The two-year note's yield US2YT=RR was last up 5.4 bps at 3.934 percent.

Earlier, the yield on Japan's two-year government bond JP2YT=RR hit its highest level in 30 years at 1.33 percent, as traders cemented bets on another Bank of Japan rate hike as early as next month.

In currencies, the US dollar rose against most major currencies, reviving its safe-haven appeal.

Bangladesh will import two liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from the spot market at prices lower than its recent purchases, as global fuel rates ease amid diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the US-Israel war on Iran.

The Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase yesterday approved the procurement for delivery in late April.

UK-based TotalEnergies Gas & Power Ltd offered $19.77 per MMBtu (metric million British thermal unit) for both cargoes, down from over $20 per MMBtu in deals struck earlier this month. The total cost is estimated at Tk 1,667 crore.

Officials at the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources said the lower rate reflects a recent dip in global energy prices, driven by expectations of a negotiated end to the Middle East conflict, which has outweighed concerns over supply disruptions in the Gulf.

Oil prices have softened in recent days, creating a window for cheaper spot purchases.

According to US media reports, prices fell as a diplomatic push by the US to end the war gathered pace, eclipsing news of more troops being sent to the region and the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely shut.

Brent sank as much as 7 percent toward $97 a barrel before paring the drop, while West Texas Intermediate was near $88.

The US drafted a 15-point plan to help bring the conflict to a close, according to news reports. The proposal was delivered to Iran via Pakistan.

On March 17, the government approved two LNG cargoes from Aramco Trading Singapore at $20.96 and $20.92 per MMBtu.

Prior to that, three cargoes were secured at above $20, including one from TotalEnergies at $21.58 and two from South Korea’s Posco International at $20.76. The three shipments are expected to arrive between April 5 and April 13.

Immediately after the war began on February 28, Petrobangla, the state-owned agency responsible for managing gas, bought two emergency cargoes at significantly higher rates – $28.28 per MMBtu from US-based Gunvor and $23.08 from Vitol.

In December, LNG had cost just $9.99 per MMBtu.

Since the onset of the war, the government has approved at least nine spot LNG cargoes to avoid supply shortages.

Bangladesh’s growing reliance on LNG reflects structural shifts in its energy sector. Domestic gas output has stagnated, prompting imports since 2018 through floating storage and regasification units at Moheshkhali.

In 2025, Bangladesh imported 109 LNG cargoes worth $3.88 billion, up from 86 cargoes costing $3.02 billion in 2024, according to LightCastle Partners.

Qatar remained the largest supplier, followed by Oman’s OQ Trading, while the rest were sourced from the spot market.

Gold rose more ​than 1% on Wednesday, buoyed by a drop in oil prices that eased ‌inflation worries and tempered expectations for interest rate hikes, even as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict lingered.

Spot gold was up 1.6% to $4,546.59 per ounce as of 9am EDT (1300 GMT) after hitting a four-month low on Monday. ​US gold futures for April delivery jumped 3.3% to $4,545.40.

"Gold is seeing a technical ​recovery and is also being supported by optimism that hostilities involving Iran ⁠may be diminishing, which has helped ease oil prices," said Peter Grant, vice president and ​senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

"We will need to see some further easing of inflation ​concerns to start thinking about the possibility of another US rate cut at some point this year. Gold could get back up to $5,000 if that were to become the case."

Oil prices sank after reports the ​US had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war. Pakistan has delivered ​a proposal from the US to Iran, and either Pakistan or Turkey could be venues for discussions ‌to ⁠de-escalate the war, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is planning to send thousands of airborne troops to the Gulf to give Trump more options to order a ground assault, sources have told Reuters.

Falling oil prices help ease inflation pressures, reducing the likelihood of ​prolonged higher interest rates. ​Despite being an ⁠inflation hedge, gold loses appeal in high‑rate environments as the opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding asset increases.

Analysts at SP Angel said in ​a note the recent volatility in gold prices reflects a significant ​rise in ⁠speculative investment flows in 2025.

"The recent pullback has seen a sharp exit of much of this capital. However, we see the recent trend of central bank reserve diversification as set to continue, ⁠with ​new entrants buying in 2026."

Spot gold rose 64% last ​year and prices hit an all-time high of $5,594.82 an ounce on 29 January.

Spot silver added 2.2% to $72.83, platinum gained 0.7% to $1,948.10 ​and palladium steadied at $1,439.31.

The dollar rose on Friday and was on course for its strongest monthly gain in ​almost a year, buoyed by safe-haven demand as the Middle East war intensifies and hopes fade for de-escalation.

The yen was particularly under pressure, falling in afternoon trading ‌to its weakest since July 2024 and raising the possibility of currency market intervention by the Japanese authorities.

Iran is expected to respond on Friday to a US peace proposal to end the war, with US President Donald Trump and senior White House officials told by interlocutors to expect a counter-proposal.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the war was expected to last weeks, rather than months, and that US objectives ​could be met without ground troops.

US consumer sentiment slipped to a three-month low in March as war-driven oil price rises weighed on the economic outlook.

Safe-haven flows underpinned the ​dollar, which has also been lifted by rising expectations for a US rate increase this year. The dollar index rose 0.3 percent to 100.17, up 2.57 percent so far in March and on course for its best monthly showing since July 2025, when it rose 3.4 percent.

“Weekend trading is also, to a certain degree, ​taking hold in terms of what you might or might not want to be long or short over the weekend,” said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street ​in Boston. “The dollar has been pretty correlated with risk these days in the correct way.”

While senior Iranian officials said diplomacy continued, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterated a ban on all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that was linked to allies of the US and Israel.

Markets stayed on edge at the end of another volatile week, as Trump again extended a deadline for striking Iran’s energy facilities even as Washington and Tehran ​offered starkly conflicting accounts of diplomatic progress.

The Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 more ground troops to the region, the Wall Street Journal reported, further dimming investor hopes of ​a near-term end to the war.

Oil prices ​rose on Friday and notched weekly gains, reflecting scepticism about prospects for a ceasefire in the ‌month-old Iran war.

Brent crude futures rose by $4.56, or 4.2 percent, to $112.57 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures rose $5.16, or 5.5 percent, to settle at $99.64.

The Brent benchmark has jumped 53 percent since February 27, the day before the US and Israel ​launched strikes against Iran, while WTI has gained 45 percent since then. On a weekly basis, Brent gained ​about 0.3 percent, while WTI gained over 1 percent.

Traders are cautious about Trump’s statements about the Iran talks. An Iranian official told Reuters that a US proposal conveyed to Tehran by Pakistan ​was “one-sided and unfair”.

“Investors remain focused on the war’s longevity rather than headlines, with any prolonged closure of ​the strait (of Hormuz) or damage to infrastructure keeping a significant risk premium in prices,” StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said.

While Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure, ​the US has also sent thousands of troops to the Middle East, with Trump weighing whether ​to use ground forces to seize Iran’s strategic oil hub of Kharg Island. “We look for the oil market to develop ‌an immunity to Trump’s conciliatory comments and optimistic tone regarding a deal, especially given apparent intentions to send an additional 10,000 troops toward Iran,” oil trading adviser Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note to clients.

The Iran war has taken about 11 million barrels per day out of global oil supply, with the ​International Energy Agency describing the ​crisis as worse than the two 1970s oil shocks combined.

“Every day flows through the Strait remain restricted, more than 10 million barrels of oil are missing ... tightening the oil ​market further,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Analysts at Macquarie Group said that oil ​prices will fall quickly if the war begins to wind down soon but still remain above pre-conflict levels. However, prices could rise to $200 if the war drags on until the end of June, they added.

Elsewhere, Russian oil producers have ​warned buyers that they could declare force majeure on supplies from ​major Baltic Sea ports after Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Global brewers operating in India ​are warning of price increases and supply disruptions as a shortage of gas due to the Iran war ‌drives up the cost of glass bottles and shipping delays hit imports of aluminium needed by can makers.

India is especially vulnerable to fuel availability as the world's fourth-largest importer of natural gas, relying heavily on the Middle East for shipments, sourcing about 40% of its supply from Qatar.

Iranian attacks have partially disrupted Qatar's export capacity, tightening ​gas availability for Indian manufacturers.

The Brewers Association of India, representing global brewers Heineken, Anheuser-Busch InBev and Carlsberg told Reuters that ​glass bottle prices have surged around 20%, paper carton rates have doubled as well as other packaging materials ⁠such as labels and tape.

Gas is essential to keeping furnaces and production lines running, and shortages have forced several glass bottle makers ​to partially or fully halt operations. Aluminium can suppliers have also warned of possible reductions just as India heads into its peak summer ​season, when beer sales typically rise.

"We are asking for price increases in the range of 12-15%," the association's director general Vinod Giri told Reuters. "We have advised our member companies to individually approach states."

The rising cost of production is making some operations unsustainable, he added.

Heineken's India unit United Breweries, Anheuser-Busch InBev and Carlsberg ​did not respond to Reuters queries.

The market was worth $7.8 billion in 2024, and is expected to double by 2030, Grand View Research says. ​Heineken alone accounts for roughly half the market, while AB InBev and Carlsberg each account for 19%, the association said.

While the three companies dominate India's ‌beer sector, ⁠many smaller players such as Bira and Simba also operate in the market.

Glass, plastics industry crisis

Beer and liquor sales in India have grown steadily alongside rising urbanisation and a young, increasingly affluent population.

The Confederation of Indian Alcoholic Beverage Companies, which represents many domestic companies, said it has written to several states seeking price adjustments to offset rising freight, logistics and input costs.

India's alcohol sector is tightly regulated, and raising retail prices typically requires ​approval. Around two-thirds of India's 28 ​states must authorise changes.

"Brewers may ⁠find it difficult to maintain supplies in states that do not allow price increases," the association said.

Some glass bottle vendors are warning their clients of reduced supplies and have increased their prices.

Nitin Agarwal, CEO ​of Fine Art Glass Works in Firozabad, a glass-making hub in northern Uttar Pradesh state, said ​he has cut production ⁠by 40% at his glass bottle making factory due to gas shortages. His customers include many liquor companies as well as producers of juice and ketchup bottles.

"We've cut production and increased prices by 17-18%," Agarwal said.

The shortages have already affected India's $5 billion bottled water market with some producers increasing ⁠prices by ​11% due to rising rates of plastic bottles and caps.

And there are signs ​the crisis is spreading.

An executive at Lotte Chilsung Beverage, one of the leading South Korean soft drinks companies, told Reuters that it has up to three months of inventory ​for plastic bottles and plastic materials.

"The situation is serious," he said.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday on ​supply fear, as Iran denied it had talks with the United States to end the war in the ‌Gulf, contradicting US President Donald Trump who said a deal could be reached soon.

Brent futures rose $4, or 4%, to $103.94 a barrel at 0400 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $3.49, or 4%, to $91.62.

Crude futures dropped more than 10% on Monday, after Trump ordered a five-day delay to ​attacks on Iran's power plants, saying the US had talks with unnamed Iranian officials that produced "major points of ​agreement".

"By shelving the plan to strike Iranian power plants for five days, the US effectively sucked ⁠much of the 'war premium' from the oil price," said KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer.

"Today's moderate bounce is ​just the market finding its footing in the mud. Traders are aware that while the missiles are on hold, the Strait ​of Hormuz is still far from a clear waterway."

The war has all but halted shipments of about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz. However, two tankers bound for India sailed through the strait on Monday.

Tehran rejected the claim of contact ​with Washington, dismissing it as an attempt to manipulate financial markets, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had attacked US ​targets and denounced Trump's comments as "worn-out psychological operations".

"Even with a possible decrease in tensions after (Monday's) announcement from President Trump, we expect a ‌price floor ⁠of $85–$90 and a natural drift back to the $110 range until the Strait of Hormuz is restored," Macquarie said in a client note.

If the strait remains effectively shut until the end of April, Brent could still reach $150 a barrel, Macquarie said.

In the latest attacks on energy infrastructure across the region, a gas company office and a pressure-reduction station were hit in the ​Iranian city of Isfahan, while ​a projectile struck a gas ⁠pipeline feeding a power station in Khorramshahr, Iran's Fars news agency reported.

To ease supply shortage, the US temporarily waived sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil already at sea. Industry sources said ​traders have since offered Iranian crude to Indian refiners at a premium to ICE Brent.

The ​International Energy Agency ⁠Executive Director Fatih Birol on Monday said the agency is consulting Asian and European governments on possible further releases of strategic reserves "if necessary".

Still, markets are bracing for market disruption at least until April, which continue to be a tailwind beneath Brent while maintaining ⁠momentum for ​inflation, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova.

Oil executives ​and energy ministers at a conference in Houston flagged the longer-term impact of the US–Israel war with Iran on the global economy. US Energy Secretary Chris ​Wright downplayed the crisis.

The Indian rupee is poised to rise at the open on Tuesday, boosted by the dip in oil prices after US President Donald Trump hinted at talks about a resolution with Iran, although Tehran's denial of any talks kept uncertainty high.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 93.50 to 93.60 range versus the US dollar, after settling at 93.9750 in the previous session, when it hit an all-time low of 93.98.

Brent crude dropped 11% on Monday after Trump said he had ordered a delay to attacks on Iran's power plants, adding the US had held productive talks with unnamed Iranian officials. US equities advanced, the dollar dropped and US Treasury yields declined.

Part of these moves reversed in Asian trading, with Brent recovering nearly 4%. Asian equities rose, though they were well off their highs.

Iran's denial of talks with the US, coupled with a Wall Street Journal report that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are inching towards joining the fight against Tehran dented the positive sentiment triggered by Trump's remarks.

"From Asia's perspective, what matters is the physical flow of barrels (via the Strait of Hormuz), and over here time is of essence," MUFG Bank said in a note.

The 1-month USD/INR had dropped to a low of 93.35 immediately after Trump's remarks, which would have meant that the rupee would have risen past the 93 handle. However, with oil prices marching higher, the 93 level looks "out of the question", a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.

"Basically all markets are chasing headlines and looking at oil," he said. The rupee is at levels "which look really attractive, however you just do not know how Iran situation will play out and that keeps conviction low".

Indian equities were poised to open higher, according to futures, though they too were well off the highs seen after Trump's remarks.

The government is arranging fuel supply from multiple sources, despite the immense pressure on the economy due to global conflicts and the energy crisis, Prime Minister's Adviser on Finance and Planning Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said today (24 March).

"Whether it is from North America or Africa, fuel supply will be ensured. Financing for this has already been secured. We are fully committed to keeping gas and electricity supply uninterrupted," he said while responding to questions from journalists at the Deputy Commissioner's conference hall.

Earlier, he visited various industrial areas, including the BSCIC industrial towns in Kurigram and Lalmonirhat, to review long-standing development disparities in the northern region and promote industrial growth.

Discussing the government's plans to revive the northern economy, Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said, "We have already identified potential sectors for industrialisation. There is great scope for agro-based industries here. Industries can be developed for potatoes, corn, tomatoes, and dairy products from livestock. Using abundant natural resources in the region, especially gravel from rivers, glass factories can also be established."

He added, "In the past, the state never paid attention to this region. However, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has explicitly mentioned balanced regional development in her manifesto.

"Ensuring agro-based industrialisation here will generate significant employment and revive the local economy."

Bangladesh expects to receive a combined $1.3 billion instalment from the International Monetary Fund by July, merging a delayed December tranche with the next scheduled disbursement under its $5.5 billion loan programme, the finance minister said.

A final round of discussions is set to take place on the sidelines of the IMF's Spring Meetings in Washington in April, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury told reporters on Tuesday (24 March).

His remarks followed a meeting between Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and Krishna Srinivasan, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department.

"We discussed the IMF loan disbursement. The review for the $1.3 billion tranche will take place in July. In the meantime, we will prepare the national budget," said the minister, who attended the meeting.

He added that the government had also sought additional financing for fuel imports, an issue expected to feature prominently in the upcoming Spring Meetings.

Bangladesh has been under an IMF programme for several years, which is now under review, the minister said, adding that discussions on reform conditions are ongoing. However, he cautioned that not all conditions can be implemented immediately. "We have to consider what is feasible in the current economic context and implement the remaining conditions gradually."

He also pointed to rising global uncertainty stemming from tensions involving Iran, the United States and Israel, warning that Bangladesh faces similar external pressures.

Srinivasan said discussions had covered the ongoing programme, with further engagement planned ahead of the next review.

The meeting was held at the Bangladesh Secretariat, according to the Prime Minister's Office.

Central bank engagement and next steps

Bangladesh Bank Governor Mostaqur Rahman also held a courtesy meeting with IMF officials.

Following the Spring Meetings, an IMF mission is expected to visit Dhaka to conduct the programme review, a senior central bank official said. Its findings will be submitted to the IMF Executive Board.

Talks are likely to focus on the policy rate, exchange rate stability and banking sector conditions, another official added.

Bangladesh secured a $4.7 billion IMF package in January 2023 amid pressures triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. The programme was later expanded to $5.5 billion in June last year with an additional $800 million.

So far, the country has received $3.64 billion across four tranches. A scheduled disbursement last December was withheld pending engagement with an elected government.

Dhaka seeks additional $2bn for energy

Amid rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions, Bangladesh has sought an additional $2 billion in financing from the IMF, the World Bank and other development partners to support fuel imports.

Prime Minister's adviser Rashed Al Titumir recently said there were "positive indications" that multilateral lenders would step in to support the energy sector and bolster growth.

Officials said securing the next IMF tranche remains a priority in the near term.

In a 23 February letter, the Economic Relations Division said the IMF planned to meet the prime minister to assess reform progress and reaffirm cooperation with the new government.

However, key conditions remain unmet, including revenue mobilisation targets, restructuring of the National Board of Revenue, strengthening central bank independence and full adoption of a market-based exchange rate, according to finance ministry officials.

Reforms, fiscal pressures and public appeal

The finance minister said the government had inherited a fragile economy and a weak banking system, underscoring the need for gradual but sustained reforms.

"The banking sector and capital market remain weak, while the tax-to-GDP ratio is very low. These issues can be addressed through step-by-step reforms," he said.

The government has begun expanding social safety nets, including family support programmes and agricultural loan relief, while stalled development projects are being revived.

Improving the ease of doing business and reducing costs through deregulation will be key priorities in the upcoming budget, he added.

Amid concerns over fuel supply, the minister urged restraint in consumption. "The government alone cannot manage this crisis. People must be cooperative."

Despite global energy pressures, he said transport and the garments sector remained stable during Ramadan and Eid. "Together, we will overcome this crisis."

QatarEnergy on ​Tuesday ‌declared force ​majeure ​on some of ⁠its ​affected ​long-term LNG supply ​contracts, ​with counterparties including ‌customers ⁠in Italy, Belgium, ​South ​Korea, ⁠and ​China.

The stock market’s performance depends on how well listed companies perform, but many firms disappointed shareholders in the last fiscal year, offering low dividends mainly due to weak sales and profits.

So far, 158 out of 228 listed companies -- excluding banks, non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), and insurance firms -- have published their financial reports and announced dividends for the last fiscal year.

Among them, 80 companies provided dividends of less than 5 percent, while 47 gave no dividend at all. 49 firms declared dividends of more than 10 percent, and 24 companies offered exactly 10 percent.

Data showed that dividends of 41 companies increased, 55 paid lower dividends, and 62 kept their payouts unchanged compared to the previous year.

Rashedul Hasan, chief executive officer (CEO) of UCB Asset Management, said dividends are “very crucial for understanding a company’s willingness to share profits with minority shareholders and its ability to generate enough cash flow.”

He added that dividends also help develop the capital market, but “we do not expect all companies to pay high dividends every year.”

He explained that if a company can generate higher returns by reinvesting cash, it should retain profits instead of paying dividends.

“However, some companies avoid sharing profits with shareholders even when they earn well, which is not a good sign. Typically, well-governed firms and multinational companies provide good dividends, even if many others make high profits.”

Rashedul said many companies faced a tough year due to high interest rates and inflation. “High inflation reduced people’s purchasing power, which tightened sales, while profitability was under pressure from high bank loan rates,” he added.

Looking ahead, he said, “There is little hope for strong improvement amid the ongoing global conflicts.”

OPERATIONAL INEFFICIENCY AND MARKET CHALLENGES

In some cases, companies struggle because they cannot manage operations efficiently over the long term. Other reasons include macroeconomic shocks, loss of competitiveness, or a lack of commitment from sponsors to run the company profitably, said Kazi Monir, CEO of Shanta Asset Management.

He added that many companies fail to sustain their performance after listing, particularly when sponsors offload their shares.

“Companies are usually listed when they are performing at their peak, and sponsors often exit within three to five years. Regulators and issue managers need to be more careful and carry out stronger checks when bringing such companies to the market,” he said.

Monir also highlighted that this trend is not unique to Bangladesh. Investors are advised to carefully assess initial public offerings (IPOs) and distinguish between strong and weak companies to avoid losses.

Weak performance among many listed firms has made the stock market less attractive to investors. Data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) shows that the benchmark index, DSEX, fell by about 13 percent during the last fiscal year.

The number of beneficiary owner (BO) accounts also dropped by 5 percent to 16.67 lakh, according to the Central Depository Bangladesh Limited (CDBL).

Despite overall weak performance, some companies continue to perform strongly and provide handsome dividends. Fifteen companies declared dividends of more than 50 percent, most of them following good corporate governance and efficient management.

Among the top dividend payers, Meghna Petroleum Limited announced a 200 percent dividend, Jamuna Oil Company Limited 180 percent, Walton Hi-Tech Industries PLC 175 percent, and Padma Oil Company Limited 160 percent. Square Pharmaceuticals PLC provided a 120 percent dividend, while Eastern Cables Limited and Eastern Lubricants Blenders Limited each declared 80 percent.

Other high-paying companies include United Power Generation & Distribution Company Limited at 65 percent, IBN Sina Pharmaceutical Industry PLC 64 percent, Renata PLC 55 percent, Mobil Jamuna Lubricants Limited 52 percent, Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) Limited 50 percent, BSRM Limited 50 percent, BSRM Steels Limited 50 percent, and Runner Automobiles PLC 55 percent.

Despite a nationwide holiday for financial institutions, operations at the Chittagong Port Authority continued largely uninterrupted during the Eid break, handling over 2.5 million tonnes of cargo and nearly 55,000 TEUs of containers in seven days.

According to port data, a total of 2,508,614 tonnes of cargo was processed between 17 March and 23 March. Imports accounted for 2,361,786 tonnes, while exports stood at 146,828 tonnes.

Container throughput also remained strong, reaching 54,898 TEUs, including 28,961 TEUs of imports and 25,937 TEUs of exports.

Vessel traffic saw no major disruption during the extended holiday, with 64 ships berthing at the port – an average of more than nine vessels per day.

Daily activity peaked on 18 March, when the port handled 434,434 tonnes of cargo, the highest for the week. The same day also recorded the highest container throughput at 11,861 TEUs.

Operations slowed on Eid day, 21 March, when cargo handling dropped to 255,874 tonnes and container movement to just 962 TEUs, with only three vessels berthing, the lowest for the week.

Officials said the steady handling of cargo and containers during the holiday underscores the port's capacity to maintain essential services and keep supply chains functioning.

Syed Refayet Hamim, secretary and spokesperson for the port authority, said operations remained normal on most days except Eid, adding that special measures were taken to ensure uninterrupted supply.

He noted, however, that delivery operations were relatively slower due to transport workers being on holiday, but are expected to pick up as government and private offices reopen.

The Chittagong Port Authority typically keeps key operations running during major holidays to prevent congestion and ensure the timely delivery of essential imports and industrial raw materials.

India today (24 March) announced the restoration of full benefits for exporters under the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) scheme, amid the West Asia war's impact on Indian exports through higher shipping costs.

According to a Commerce Ministry statement, the restored rates will match those in effect on 22 February this year, reversing the 50% cut imposed a month ago.

The statement also added that the step is intended to provide timely support to Indian exporters facing increased freight costs and war-related trade risks arising from disruptions in the Gulf and the wider West Asia maritime corridor.

"Recent developments in West Asia have led to challenges in maritime logistics, including changes in routing and transit patterns, and these have had an impact on logistics costs and shipping schedules for export consignments moving to or through the region," the statement said.

It said the decision is aimed at sustaining India's export competitiveness in a challenging global environment.

MK Footwear PLC has signed a major export agreement with China-based Jinjiang Akia Sports Co Ltd aiming to boost its international business with an estimated annual export value of up to $10 million.

In a disclosure filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (24 March), the SME-listed company said it entered into a manufacturing and supply agreement with the Chinese firm on 24 March. Under the deal, Jinjiang Akia Sports has committed to placing a minimum annual order of 1 million pairs of footwear, subject to mutually agreed designs and specifications.

The company expects the agreement to generate between $8 million and $10 million in export revenue annually, to be executed through regular purchase orders each contract year.

To meet the anticipated demand, MK Footwear will allocate dedicated production capacity for the buyer. The agreement also includes standard provisions covering quality assurance, production timelines, payment terms, and other commercial conditions.

Company officials said the deal is expected to significantly strengthen its export pipeline and support future business growth, provided that purchase orders are executed successfully and contractual obligations are met.

Following the announcement, MK Footwear's share price rose by 2% to Tk85.90 on the SME platform, reflecting positive investor sentiment.

The development comes amid improving financial performance for the company. In the fiscal year 2024–25, MK Footwear reported revenue of Tk78.79 crore, while net profit surged 116% to Tk8.76 crore.

However, a significant portion of the profit growth was driven by gains from stock market investments. The company earned Tk6.37 crore by selling shares of Legacy Footwear, which it had acquired earlier at a lower cost.

Earlier, MK Footwear declared a 12% cash dividend for shareholders other than sponsors and directors for the year ended 30 June 2025.

The pre-Eid optimism at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) proved short-lived as the market witnessed a sharp downturn today, with investors rattled by rising global geopolitical tensions and their potential economic fallout at home.

Trading resumed after the weeklong holidays with heavy selling pressure dominating the session, as concerns over inflation, possible fuel price hikes, and energy supply disruptions linked to the ongoing Middle East crisis dampened sentiment.

The uncertainty triggered a broad-based decline across sectors, wiping out nearly Tk9,000 crore in market capitalisation in a single day – an indication of weakening investor confidence.

The benchmark DSEX index fell by 68 points, or 1.28%, to close at 5,284. The decline was even steeper among blue-chip stocks, with the DS30 index shedding 39 points, or 1.91%, to settle at 2,011. Market breadth remained decisively negative, with 243 issues declining against 121 gainers, while 27 stocks remained unchanged.

Despite the significant drop, trading activity was subdued. Daily turnover stood at Tk492 crore, reflecting a cautious stance among investors who appear to be adopting a wait-and-see approach amid persistent uncertainties.

Market analysts attributed the bearish trend largely to macroeconomic concerns exacerbated by global developments.

Analysts say the market's near-term direction will largely depend on developments in global energy markets and the government's ability to manage domestic inflationary pressures. Until greater clarity emerges, investors are likely to remain cautious, limiting fresh capital inflows into an already volatile market.

According to EBL Securities, the market slipped into negative territory from the opening bell as the initial festive enthusiasm quickly faded. The brokerage noted that fears of energy shortages and inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East tensions overshadowed any positive sentiment.

Although the market attempted a modest recovery during mid-session trading, it failed to sustain momentum, closing firmly in the red.

A more detailed assessment by BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage highlighted the potential sectoral impact of escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The report suggested that manufacturing, cement, and power sectors are likely to face immediate pressure due to their heavy reliance on imported fuel and raw materials.

These sectors are confronting a dual challenge. Rising global prices of furnace oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to squeeze profit margins, while the risk of industrial load-shedding and higher transportation costs – driven by a so-called "Gulf risk premium" – could disrupt production cycles.

Gulf risk premium refers to extra cost added to oil prices or shipping and insurance rates due to geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region. It reflects perceived risk of supply disruption from major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait.

The BRAC EPL analysis also pointed out that export-oriented readymade garment (RMG) companies with strong financial positions may benefit marginally if they can position themselves as reliable suppliers amid global uncertainty. However, this advantage will depend on their ability to absorb higher freight and insurance costs without losing competitiveness.

In contrast, the banking and telecommunications sectors were identified as relatively resilient. Banks may benefit from increased trade finance activities and higher interest income, while telecom companies are often considered defensive investments during periods of restricted mobility. Nonetheless, these sectors were among the major contributors to Tuesday's decline.

Key index draggers included BRAC Bank, Robi Axiata, Grameenphone, Square Pharmaceuticals, Walton Hi-Tech Industries, and Islami Bank Bangladesh, all of which weighed heavily on the indices.

Sector-wise, the banking sector led turnover with a 15.5% share, followed by pharmaceuticals at 12.8% and engineering at 11.5%. Among individual stocks, ACME Pesticides Limited topped the turnover chart, alongside City Bank PLC and Sea Pearl Beach Resort and Spa Limited.

All major sectors ended in negative territory. The banking and telecommunications sectors recorded the steepest declines, each falling by 2.45%. Non-bank financial institutions dropped 1.88%, followed by food and allied at 1.18% and fuel and power at 1.14%.

Amid the widespread losses, the mutual fund sector emerged as a rare bright spot, posting a 6.55% gain. Several funds delivered strong returns, offering some relief to investors.

The bearish sentiment extended to the Chittagong Stock Exchange, where the CSCX index declined by 47 points to 9,118 and the CASPI fell by 75 points to 14,954. Turnover at the port city bourse remained modest at Tk18.79 crore.