Bangladesh's economy last week revolved around energy-related costs straining public finances, a halt in fertiliser production due to gas shortages, and fresh burdens on trade from rising container depot charges.

The week was also marked by a revenue collection shortfall heading into the fiscal year-end, and pushback from the garment industry against US allegations of forced labour and overcapacity.

The following is a recap of those major stories as covered by Star Business.

$2 billion out of pocket as energy costs surge, says finance minister (April 19)

Bangladesh has incurred nearly $2 billion in additional energy costs owing to global supply chain disruptions, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said while addressing an event in Washington. He called for urgent budget support to ease fiscal pressure and shore up weakened banks.

Gas shortage brings DAP fertiliser production to a halt (April 20)

Production at the state-owned DAP Fertilizer Company Limited in Chattogram ground to a halt after an acute ammonia shortage, itself a consequence of the prolonged closure of five urea factories, including CUFL and Kafco, disrupted by gas supply problems tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

ICDs raise charges, a day after fuel price hike (April 21)

Private inland container depots hiked handling charges by 8.5 percent, just one day after diesel prices climbed 15 percent. Exporters immediately protested the move, warning it would raise trade costs and further weaken Bangladesh's competitiveness in global markets.

Missed targets: NBR needs Tk 2.6 lakh crore by June to avoid shortfall (April 22)

The National Board of Revenue faces a Tk 2.6 lakh crore collection target in the final quarter of FY26 after falling nearly Tk 1 lakh crore short of its nine-month goal. Analysts pointed to slowing GDP and elevated energy costs as the chief obstacles to closing the gap.

No overcapacity, forced labour in apparel sector (April 23)

The BGMEA firmly rejected US allegations of forced labour and overcapacity in Bangladesh's garment sector. In a formal position paper, the association said that its exports support rather than undercut the US economy, and that the industry operates in full compliance with internationally recognised labour standards.

Oil climbed on Monday (27 April) as stalled US-Iran peace talks prolonged the disruption of Middle East energy exports, while renewed excitement about artificial intelligence spending drove up chip stocks ‌at the beginning of a week where war, central banks and tech earnings are in focus.

Benchmark Brent crude futures rose around 2% to touch a three-week high of $107.97 a barrel in Asia trade, a level that has stoked inflation worries and prompted traders to all but price out rate cuts in developed markets this year.

S&P 500 futures wobbled in the Asia session but tacked on small gains of around 0.2% after markets in Taiwan, Tokyo and Seoul followed Wall Street to notch record highs on a new wave of AI optimism.

Currency trading was broadly steady, with the euro at $1.1724 and the yen at 159.32 per dollar.

Bond ⁠markets were calm ahead of central bank meetings in Japan, the US, Britain, Europe, Canada and a smattering of emerging markets.

While a ceasefire has frozen most fighting in the war, starting with US-Israeli strikes on Iran two months ago, markets are focused on the shuttered Strait of Hormuz, where barely any ships carrying oil and gas have transited.

The average LNG price for June delivery into northeast Asia was $16.70 per million British thermal units last week, nearly 61% above pre-war levels.

Goldman Sachs analysts lifted year-end oil price forecasts sharply from $80 to $90 a barrel for Brent, and even that rests on normalisation of Gulf exports by the end of June.

"Non-linear price increases are likely if inventories drop to critically low levels, which we have not seen in the last few decades," they warned in a note.

US President Donald Trump cancelled a trip to Islamabad by US envoys for talks on the weekend, but investors were buoyed slightly by an Axios report saying Iran wants to make a deal ‌on opening ⁠the strait first and postpone nuclear talks until later.

Rates and hyperscalers earnings

Beyond oil derivatives and the even more stretched physical market where jet fuel fetches $185 a barrel in Singapore, equity investors have hoped for a breakthrough and tried to look past the oil shock to an AI trend that is seen as unstoppable.

"AI is something that people are very optimistic about and very much considered a winner," said Mike Seidenberg, senior portfolio manager for Allianz Technology Trust.

"It's the top of the portfolio."

Intel's forecast for second-quarter revenue above Wall Street ⁠expectations last week set off the latest round of buying that has pushed the total value of the chip-maker-heavy stock markets in Taiwan and South Korea above Germany's.

US tech earnings headline the week ahead, with 44% of the S&P 500 by market cap due to report and the focus on capex at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms, which report ⁠on Wednesday. Apple reports on Thursday.

Major central banks are expected to stay on hold this week, though aggressive bets on future rate hikes in Britain and Europe could be tested if policymakers strike a cautious tone.

The Bank of Japan is the first off the rank and is expected to keep its short-term policy rate steady at ⁠0.75% on Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve is also expected to leave rates where they are at what is likely to be Jerome Powell's final meeting in the chair.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England are likewise expected to hold, but their tone and outlook could challenge market pricing for both banks to make two 25-basis-point hikes later in the year.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are likely to remain strained through the end of 2027 due to disruptions and infrastructure damage from the US-Iran war, the International Energy Agency said Friday.

Energy prices have soared since Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to Gulf tanker traffic and began striking oil and gas targets in neighbouring countries in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks.

“The combined effect of short-term supply losses and slower capacity growth could result in a cumulative loss of around 120 billion cubic metres of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030,” the Paris-based agency said in a new report.

It said nearly 20 percent of LNG supply has been lost due to the conflict, and warned that new investments to increase production are likely to be delayed.

“While new liquefaction projects in other regions are expected to offset these losses over time, the impact will prolong tight markets through 2026 and 2027,” it said.

Soaring prices could also depress demand for gas, with many countries already announcing energy-saving measures that could drive demand for renewable energy sources.

“The demand side is set to play a key role in balancing the market -- particularly in Asia, where fuel switching is already picking up alongside energy-saving measures,” the IEA said.

Economists warn that persistently high prices could spark widespread inflation that could derail growth worldwide if consumers curtail spending in response.

More than a decade after Bangladesh and China announced a Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone in Anwara upazila of Chattogram, the project remains largely on paper with no visible construction.

The Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (Beza), which is overseeing the project, says the zone could attract $1.5 billion in investment and create more than 200,000 jobs. However, there are still no firm commitments, signed land-lease agreements, or confirmed factory setups.

Of the nearly 784 acres allocated in Anwara, only about 60 acres have been prepared, and not a single factory has been established.

Basic infrastructure on the ground is still incomplete, with utility services only partly in place. The Chattogram Water Supply and Sewerage Authority has installed a limited water supply pipeline, while the Karnaphuli Gas Distribution Company has set up a nearby gas station.

Beza has also built an administrative building and two access roads.

This reflects a broader pattern in Bangladesh’s investment landscape, where large pledges do not always translate into actual inflows. Chinese foreign direct investment also remains modest, with only a small share of announced amounts materialising.

HOW THE PROJECT BEGAN

The project dates back to June 2014, when, during a visit to China, former prime minister Sheikh Hasina proposed an exclusive economic zone for Chinese investors. Beza pursued the plan and signed an agreement with China’s commerce ministry during the visit.

The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council approved the project in September 2015 and allocated Tk 420.37 crore for the first phase, with China expected to provide a loan to fund it.

Beza later acquired land in Anwara, about 270 kilometres south of Dhaka, for the zone.

In October 2016, Beza signed a contract with China Harbour Engineering Company Limited, but the development and land-lease agreements could not be finalised, and the deal collapsed in April 2022.

Later, on July 16, 2022, China nominated the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) as the new developer. Beza signed cooperation and investment terms with CRBC later that year and finalised the shareholder agreement in October 2023.

Progress remained slow under the Awami League government. After the political change in August 2024, the interim government renewed efforts to move the project forward, but there has still been no progress on the ground.

This is happening despite stronger Dhaka-Beijing ties and rising US tariffs that are encouraging Chinese manufacturers to consider relocating factories.

Beza sources said some Chinese manufacturers visited the site last year, and around 200 investors are expected to participate in the zone, suggesting the project still has strong potential if long-standing delays are resolved.

BEZA EXPLAINS DELAYS IN NEGOTIATIONS

“Progress on the proposed Chinese economic zone has been slow due to unresolved contractual and commercial issues,” said Mohammad Zakaria Mithu, director (MIS and research) at Beza.

He said that although land acquisition is complete, no formal agreement has been signed with the Chinese side, and negotiations on the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract are still ongoing.

“The development agreement, which is needed to start physical work, depends on finalising the EPC contract,” he added.

Mithu also said disagreements over cost valuation under the Chinese loan framework remain a key obstacle, with both sides yet to align their expectations.

He attributed the delays mainly to prolonged negotiations and pending approvals, while a multi-ministry committee is working to resolve the issues.

Mithu added that once the EPC contract is finalised, further steps such as the development agreement, company registration and formal approval can proceed, enabling implementation.

He also said Chinese investment is expected in sectors including textile manufacturing, electronics assembly, renewable energy (solar), light engineering and agribusiness.

Meanwhile, Ashik Chowdhury, executive chairman of Beza, has outlined a 180-day roadmap to complete negotiations for the long-stalled project.

He said that although part of the land is ready, progress has been delayed due to unresolved commercial issues between the government and Chinese private partners.

“These disputes have delayed the signing of key land-lease and development agreements,” he added.

Chowdhury said the immediate focus is to resolve technical cost issues and complete administrative procedures so that groundwork can begin within six months.

He added that the goal is to shift the project from prolonged negotiations to actual industrial development.

India has ramped up purchases of Russian oil and revived alternate supplies from Africa, Iran and Venezuela to blunt a sharp crude shortfall from the crisis-ridden Middle East, analysts say.

India, the world’s third-largest oil buyer, normally sources about half of its crude through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that has seen only a trickle of traffic since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28.

India’s heavy import dependence, combined with modest oil reserves compared with major consumers like China, has prompted analysts to warn that India could be among the most vulnerable to a sudden oil price hike.

But while India is grappling with disruptions to cooking gas supplies, it has so far avoided the petrol shortages that have hit some neighbouring nations.

Ship‑tracking and import data show that India has partially plugged the gap by turning to old allies, expanding promising ties and reviving suppliers it had not tapped in years.

The biggest backstop has been Russian crude -- a fuel source New Delhi spent much of the past year trying to pivot away from under stiff US tariffs.

Indian refiners imported an average of nearly 1.98 million barrels per day (bpd) from Russia in March, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler -- a sharp jump from the previous two months.

Analysts say the surge was likely aided by a temporary US waiver granted in March covering Russian oil already at sea.

“Imports rose from approximately one million bpd in January and February,” said Nikhil Dubey, an analyst at Kpler.

“This near‑doubling suggests that this additional volume was likely contracted following the sanction waiver,” he told AFP.

USEFUL PURCHASE

India likely purchased an additional 60 million barrels of Russian oil that will be delivered through April, two trade analysts said.

Washington’s exemptions have drawn criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who says they complicate efforts to choke off Russia’s revenues more than four years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

But Kyiv gained little leverage after US President Donald Trump last week extended the waiver on Russian seaborne oil by another month.

“The extension gives Indian refiners the runway they urgently needed,” said Rahul Choudhary, vice‑president at Rystad Energy.

“Indian refiners will likely move quickly to lock in the additional barrels the extension unlocks before the May 16 deadline.”

Other markets have also aided India.

Imports from Angola averaged 327,000 bpd in March, data from Kpler shows, nearly three times what India received in February.

Industry watchers say African crude purchases were made before the United States struck Iran and have proven to be useful.

“A lot of the uptick you’re seeing from Angola in March or Nigeria in April comes because we were (already) looking at sources other than Russia,” an official at a state‑run refiner told AFP, requesting anonymity because they were not authorised to speak with journalists.

“It’s now come in handy because shipments from Iraq and most of the Middle East have fallen heavily.”

According to Kpler, crude from both Iran and Venezuela began arriving this month.

Imports from Iran averaged 276,000 bpd as of mid‑April, while shipments from Venezuela stood at around 137,000 bpd, preliminary data from Kpler shows.

The purchases have proven to be a fortuitous windfall for refiners who largely steered clear of both suppliers previously to avoid US ire.

HIGHER PRICES

Despite the diversification, the road ahead looks difficult.

India’s overall crude imports fell in March, sliding to 4.5 million bpd from 5.2 million in February, according to Kpler.

Analysts also cautioned that oil from the African nations has limits as a substitute.

“In a prolonged Iran conflict scenario, African crudes can partially backfill supply. However, they are unlikely to fully replace Middle Eastern barrels on a structural basis due to crude slate mismatches,” said Dubey, explaining Indian refineries were configured for different grades than what comes from the African countries.

Higher prices are also a problem.

“The era of cheap oil is over for now, but access has been preserved. Either way, India doesn’t have the luxury of walking away,” said Choudhary, noting that April barrels were secured at between $5 and $15 above the Brent global oil benchmark.

State‑run retailers have yet to raise pump prices, with the government instead cutting excise duties on fuel.

Some analysts warn prices could rise by as much as 28 rupees (30 cents) per litre once voting in key state elections ends later this month.

The oil ministry acknowledged Thursday that government‑owned fuel companies were incurring losses but denied that a price hike was imminent.

“India is the only country where petrol and diesel prices haven’t increased in the last four years,” it said.

The government and state oil firms “have taken relentless steps in order to insulate Indian citizens from steep increases in international prices”.

Bangladesh can increase its tax revenue from the current level of less than 7 per cent of GDP to around 15 per cent without raising tax rates by ensuring transparency, accountability and greater efficiency in tax administration, experts and economists said.

They stressed the need for urgent reforms, including separating tax policy formulation from tax collection authorities, along with institutional and procedural improvements to enhance enforcement capacity and reduce tax evasion.

The observations came on Sunday at a policy dialogue titled “Rationalising Supplementary Duty and VAT in Bangladesh: Evidence, Challenges, and Reform Pathways,” organised by the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh with support from The M Group, Inc.

Zakir Ahmed Khan, chairman of Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation, attended as the chief guest. The event was chaired by Zaidi Sattar.

Shamsul Huq Zahid, editor of The Financial Express, and Zakir Hossain, associate editor of Daily Samakal, shared their insights on the keynote presented by Bazlul Haque Khondker, research director of PRI, and Hafiz Choudhury, principal of The M Group.Financial news subscription

Zakir Ahmed Khan said Bangladesh’s tax potential could be significantly higher if enforcement is strengthened and systemic leakages are reduced. Proper enforcement of existing laws alone could raise revenue by 30–40 per cent, he added.

He argued that instead of comparing with other countries, Bangladesh should assess its own tax potential based on its economic structure, rates and base. With improved compliance and enforcement, the country could reach a tax-to-GDP ratio of around 15 per cent without increasing tax rates.

However, he cautioned that enforcement should not turn into “tax terrorism” but should promote voluntary compliance and trust in the system.

Khan also emphasised the need to separate tax policy formulation from tax administration under the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to improve efficiency, accountability and research capacity. He said stronger reforms, better analysis and continuous policy review are essential to unlock Bangladesh’s revenue potential and address fiscal challenges.

Zaidi Sattar said Bangladesh’s ongoing tax liberalisation reflects a structural tax deficit and weak revenue capacity, as indicated by low tax buoyancy.

He observed that heavy reliance on import tariffs, regulatory duties and supplementary duties has raised domestic prices, particularly for consumer goods, making them higher than international levels and even compared to India.Economic analysis reports

He added that although purchasing power parity suggests higher real income, high domestic prices reduce affordability and competitiveness.

Shamsul Huq Zahid said the NBR tends to rely on supplementary and regulatory duties to offset weak direct tax collection, often using high duties to protect inefficient domestic industries.

He noted that Bangladesh, once a pioneer in introducing VAT in the region, is now lagging behind countries like India and Nepal in modern tax systems such as GST, largely due to inefficiencies in tax administration.

“The NBR’s inability to generate sufficient direct tax revenue has led to growing dependence on indirect taxation, which distorts the tax structure and reduces efficiency,” he said.

A surfeit of 'high-powered' money in the economy stokes concern about inflation upturn as reserve money more than doubled in terms of year-on-year growth as of February.Economic analysis reports

The central bank of Bangladesh has injected Tk 200 billion in printed money into

economy recently to feed government expenditure needs, economists say.

Bangladesh Bank officials, however, play down such concern as they claim the regulator has got a stronger rise in its net foreign assets (NFA), including foreign- exchange reserves, during the current fiscal year.

The increase in reserve, dubbed 'high-power money', signifies a sharp expansion of liquidity on the money market. Data released from the central bank show reserve money grew 13.35 per cent in February 2026, up from 6.16 per cent in the same month a year earlier.

The BB attributes the increase largely to a stronger rise in its net foreign assets, including foreign-exchange reserves, during the fiscal year 2025-26, compared with only a marginal increase in the previous year.

Reserve money is also referred to as the monetary base that comprises currency in circulation and commercial banks' reserves held with the central bank.

It forms the foundation of the broader money supply and can have significant implications for inflation and credit conditions, economists explain.Bangladesh economic statistics

People familiar with the developments told The Financial Express that the recent surge in the net foreign asset reflects sizeable dollar purchases by the Bangladesh Bank.

The central bank bought more than $5.50 billion from the market during the fiscal year, boosting its foreign-asset holdings and in turn expanding reserve money.

They also say inflows of foreign grants and assistance from some international lenders, for example, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, also contributed to the rise in net foreign assets in the state treasury.

Some economists strike a note of caution that the increase in high-powered money could add fuel to inflationary pressures if not managed carefully.

"We believe the situation remains under control," says Dr Md Ezazul Islam, director- general of Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management.

He says a potential increase in private-sector imports in the coming months could help moderate reserve-money growth.

Others appear more concerned about the inflationary impact.

"This helps explain why inflation is not easing," says Dr M Masrur Reaz, chairman and chief executive officer of Policy Exchange Bangladesh.Financial news subscription

He adds that the central bank has recently injected around Tk 200 billion in the economy, amplifying liquidity through multiplier effects and contributing to persistent price pressures.

The European Union and United States signed an agreement Friday to coordinate on the supply of critical minerals needed for key industries including defense, as China's dominance becomes a growing concern.

The pact marks a rare embrace by President Donald Trump's administration of the role of the EU, which it often berates as it instead champions right-wing populists within Europe.

Flexing its muscle at times of tension, Beijing has restricted exports of critical minerals needed for products including semiconductors, electric vehicle batteries and weapons systems.

"The overconcentration of these resources, the fact that they're dominated by one or two places, is an unacceptable risk," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said as he signed a memorandum of understanding with EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic.

Sefcovic told a separate press briefing that the agreement "formalizes our partnership across the entire value chain, from exploration and extraction to processing, refining, recycling and recovery."

On concerns that China could retaliate against a potential critical minerals deal involving multiple parties, Sefcovic said: "For us, it's really a matter of economic security. It's a matter of overcoming dependencies."

From recent experience, "we know how dependencies could be expensive, and we have a huge price tag for being dependent on the sources of our fossil fuels," he added.

"We simply want to learn from that experience and have a much more diversified portfolio of suppliers," Sefcovic said.

Rubio noted that the United States and the EU combined are "the largest customers and users" of critical minerals.

"We have to make sure that these supplies and these minerals are available for our futures and in ways that are not monopolized in one place or concentrated heavily in one place," Rubio added.

An action plan said that the EU and United States would explore setting minimum prices on critical minerals -- effectively preventing China or other outside powers from flooding the market with inexpensive exports.

They will also look at coordinating any subsidies and stockpiles of critical minerals, and could coordinate joint standards to ease trade across the Western world, and together invest in research.

The US Trade Representative's office said this plan will be the main mechanism to "coordinate trade policies and measures on critical minerals supply chains with a view to concluding a binding plurilateral agreement on trade."

The Trump administration has previously called for a preferential trade zone among allies on critical minerals.

Washington has also unveiled critical minerals action plans with Mexico and Japan, alongside a supply framework with Australia and others.

Three years after launch and with 99 percent of its budget unspent, a nearly Tk 1,700 crore customs modernisation project is set to be presented to the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) today with a proposal to extend its deadline and raise costs by nearly 40 percent.

The Customs Modernisation and Infrastructure Development project was launched in April 2023 with World Bank (WB) financing to modernise key customs offices, including Chattogram, Benapole and Dhaka.

It was scheduled for completion by March 2026. As of June 2025, only Tk 5.14 crore had been spent of the original Tk 1,686 crore budget, of which Tk 1,475 crore was a WB loan.

Although Tk 113 crore has been allocated in the current fiscal year, the government is now seeking to extend the project’s duration and increase its cost.

A senior planning ministry official said a revised proposal has been listed for presentation at today’s scheduled Ecnec meeting.

The proposal, seen by The Daily Star, recommends increasing the project cost by 39 percent to Tk 2,344 crore, with the WB loan increasing by 34 percent, or Tk 507 crore. It also proposes extending the deadline to June 30, 2028.

The proposal attributes the cost increase to revisions made at the detailed design stage, after the initial estimate was based on conceptual design.

The earlier exchange rate assumption of Tk 102 per US dollar has been revised to Tk 122. Rising construction rates and higher VAT and tax rates have also contributed to the escalation.

At present, Dhaka Customs handles large volumes of air freight and courier consignments, Chattogram Customs manages 90 percent of the country’s import-export activity, and Benapole Customs oversees the bulk of land trade.

The project will introduce modern infrastructure and technology at these offices to speed up import-export operations, reduce tax evasion, and strengthen the detection of money laundering.

Planned works include construction of office buildings, laboratories, warehouses and residential facilities at Chattogram Customs House, as well as a new building for the Customs, Excise and VAT Training Academy. Baseline, midline and endline time-release studies will be conducted at major customs stations.

A tariff policy implementation plan will also be prepared, the existing tariff structure reviewed, and the feasibility of tariff reforms assessed using ASYCUDA World, National Single Window and Automated Risk Management System software.

Raising tax rates on high-income earners without expanding the tax net could backfire, potentially encouraging money laundering and capital flight, the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) said today.

“Raising tax rates on high-income taxpayers may discourage compliant taxpayers and increase the risks of tax evasion or capital flight,” said MCCI President Kamran T Rahman while presenting budget proposals for FY2026-27 at a pre-budget discussion with the National Board of Revenue (NBR) in Dhaka.

“In the context of regional competition, it is essential to keep tax rates reasonable. Expanding the tax base, rather than increasing tax rates, could be a more effective and sustainable solution for boosting revenue,” he added.

The chamber said that maintaining a rational and predictable tax regime is essential to retain investment and ensure compliance in a region marked by growing tax competition.

Instead of raising rates, the trade body recommended broadening the tax base to bring more individuals and businesses, particularly from the informal sector, under the tax net.

Currently, despite having more than one crore registered taxpayers with electronic tax identification numbers (e-TINs), fewer than half regularly file returns, pointing to a structural weakness in the system.

The MCCI proposed introducing a symbolic minimum tax, ranging from Tk 100 to Tk 1,000 annually, along with a simplified one-page digital return-filing system via mobile applications.

"This would encourage first-time taxpayers to enter the formal system and gradually build a culture of compliance," Rahman said.

The chamber also flagged concerns over the effective tax rate faced by businesses, noting that multiple layers of advance income tax (AIT), tax deducted at source (TDS), and various conditionalities often push the actual burden to as high as 40–50 percent, far exceeding statutory rates.

Such distortions reduce the benefits of nominal tax cuts and create disincentives for formal business operations, it said.

MCCI urged policymakers to move towards a simplified, income-based taxation system, reduce conditionalities tied to corporate tax rates, and accelerate digital integration across income tax, VAT, and customs platforms.

It also called for easing compliance requirements, such as the Proof of Submission of Return (PSR), rationalising VAT rates, and ensuring faster, automated input tax credit mechanisms.

For small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which form the backbone of employment and industrial growth, the chamber recommended targeted tax relief, lower turnover taxes, and reduced duties on raw materials to enhance competitiveness.

The MCCI said that revenue policy should balance mobilisation and facilitation, warning that overly aggressive taxation could prove counterproductive in an already fragile economic environment.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) today approved a US$250 million loan to support Bangladesh in operationalising and institutionalising critical reforms to improve the efficiency, coverage, and effectiveness of the country’s social protection system.

The Subprogram 2 of the Second Strengthening Social Resilience Program aims to strengthen protective and preventive social protection measures to reduce vulnerability, exclusion, and poverty risks, said an ADB press release.

The program focuses on improving social protection system management, expanding its coverage and scope, and enhancing protection for vulnerable populations.

ADB Country Director for Bangladesh Hoe Yun Jeong said this program represents an important milestone in Bangladesh’s transition toward a more modern, inclusive, and resilient social protection system.

By expanding coverage for vulnerable groups -- particularly women -- and introducing contributory protection mechanisms, the reforms, introduced by this program, will help reduce poverty risks while supporting long-term economic stability, said ADB country director

“ADB is proud to partner with Bangladesh in building a system that is more efficient, adaptive, and better equipped to promote inclusive growth and shared prosperity” Jeong added.

Reforms under the program include the development of contributory social protection schemes, which are expected to help ease longer-term fiscal pressure.

The widow allowance program will also extend support to at least 250,000 additional vulnerable women, while adaptive social protection will be strengthened through initiative climate adaptive measures under a core workfare program. In addition, access to financial services for women entrepreneurs will increase by at least 15% through the Bangladesh Bank’s targeted refinancing scheme.

The initiatives under the program are expected to generate significant micro-level outcomes, including enhanced productivity and efficiency, increased female labour force participation, and greater poverty reduction -- leading to positive macroeconomic effects and contributing to inclusive economic growth, added the release.

Oil prices extended their gains on Thursday, rising more than $1 ‌in the wake of stalled peace talks between Iran and the United States and as both nations maintained restrictions on the flow of trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures rose $1.26, or 1.2 percent, to $103.17 a barrel at 0630 GMT, after settling above $100 for the first time in ​more than two weeks on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate futures were also up $1.20, or 1.3 percent, at $94.16.

Both benchmarks closed ​more than $3 higher on Wednesday after larger-than-expected gasoline and distillate stock draws in the US, and over the lack of progress on Iran peace talks.

“The oil market is repricing expectations with little sign of progress in ​finding a resolution in the Persian Gulf,” said ING analysts in a note, adding that hopes for a resolution are ​fading as peace talks stall.

“In addition, Iran’s seizure of two vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz suggests disruptions to shipments are set to continue.”

While US President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire between the countries following a request by Pakistani mediators, Iran and the US are still restricting ​the transit of ships through the strait, which carried about 20 percent of daily global oil supplies until the war began on ​February 28.

Iran seized two ships in the waterway on Wednesday, tightening its grip on the strategic chokepoint.

Trump has also maintained a US Navy ‌blockade ⁠of Iran’s trade by sea, and Iranian parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said a full ceasefire only made sense if the blockade was lifted.

The US military has intercepted at least three Iranian-flagged tankers in Asian waters and is redirecting them away from positions near India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, shipping and security sources said on Wednesday.

With his extension of the ​ceasefire on Tuesday, Trump again ​pulled back at the ⁠last moment from warnings to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges. Trump has not set an end date for the extended ceasefire, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

US EXPORTS ​SET A RECORD HIGH

On energy trade, total exports of crude oil and petroleum products from the ​United States climbed ⁠by 137,000 barrels per day to a record 12.88 million bpd as Asian and European countries bought up supplies after disruptions tied to the Iran war.

US crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories ⁠rose by ​1.9 million barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a ​1.2 million-barrel draw.

US gasoline stocks fell by 4.6 million barrels, while analysts had expected a 1.5 million-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles dropped by 3.4 million barrels versus ​expectations for a 2.5 million-barrel drop.

US consumer sentiment fell to a record ​low in April as households shrugged off a ceasefire in the war with Iran, remaining focused on the inflation ‌fallout from the conflict.

The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a final reading of 49.8 this month, an all-time low. The reading was a slight improvement, however, from the 47.6 reported earlier in the month.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 48.0. It was at 53.3 ​in March. The deterioration in sentiment was across political party affiliation, and among consumers with investments in the stock market.

The Iran war ​has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, boosting the price of oil, and ultimately the cost of gasoline ⁠and diesel. Prices for other commodities, including fertilizers, petrochemicals and aluminum, which will soon impact consumers, have also surged.

Tehran effectively closed the strait ​after the start of the war on February 28. President Donald Trump this week indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran, though a US Navy blockade ​of Iranian ports remained in effect.

"The Iran conflict appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices," said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. "In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that do not lift supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to buoy consumers."

GASOLINE AND DIESEL ​PRICES INCREASE

The national average retail gasoline price has hovered above $4 a gallon this month, with diesel well above $5 a gallon, data from the US ​Energy Information Administration showed.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll on Friday showed a clear majority of Americans blamed Trump for surging gasoline prices, which are weighing on his Republican Party ahead ‌of November's ⁠congressional midterm elections.

Expensive diesel is likely to raise prices of goods transported by road. Economists said while the correlation between consumer sentiment and spending was weak, they expected households, especially lower-income groups, to scale back on consumption.

"We expect the hit to real disposable income growth from higher gas prices will slow consumption growth," said Grace Zwemmer, a US economist at Oxford Economics. "The impact will be mostly felt by low- and middle-income households, ​since a larger share of their ​overall spending goes toward gasoline."

The ⁠survey's measure of consumer expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to 4.7 percent this month from 3.8 percent in March. April's reading exceeded levels that prevailed in 2024 and remained well above the 2.3 percent-3.0 percent range seen ​in the two years before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Consumers' expectations for inflation over the next five years climbed ​to 3.5 percent from 3.2 percent ⁠last month.

Higher inflation expectations added to a survey from S&P Global on Thursday showing a measure of prices charged by businesses for their goods and services jumped in April to the highest level in nearly four years in strengthening financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would probably not cut ⁠interest rates ​this year.

"More pain will come as higher transportation costs are passed along for food, ​appliances, toys and every other item that travels on a ship, car or plane," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "Sentiment won't improve until the Strait of ​Hormuz is open and there is a permanent end to the conflict."

Prime Bank PLC has signed a $30 million term-loan agreement with the Opec Fund for International Development (Opec Fund), an international development finance institution.

The strategic collaboration is expected to significantly enhance Prime Bank’s capacity to support critical trade finance requirements across the country’s small and medium enterprise (SME), agriculture, and corporate sectors.

Faisal Rahman, chief executive officer (current charge) of the bank, and Abdulhamid Alkhalifa, president of the Opec Fund, signed the agreement in Dhaka recently, according to a press release.

Commenting on the partnership, Alkhalifa said, “MSMEs and agribusinesses play a vital role in jobs, food security, and economic resilience in Bangladesh, yet many still struggle to access trade finance.”

“Our partnership with Prime Bank will help unlock new opportunities, diversify exports, and strengthen the country’s private sector. This loan builds on our long-standing collaboration and reflects our commitment to inclusive, sustainable growth,” he added.

Rahman said, “We are delighted to enter into this strategic partnership with the Opec Fund. The three-year expandable term-loan facility will meaningfully enhance our capacity to support the trade financing needs of our valued clients.”

“This collaboration comes at a critical time when businesses are navigating uncertainties in the global economic landscape,” he added.

The Opec Fund’s support reinforces our relationship and reflects its strong confidence in Prime Bank’s governance, operational resilience, and future ambitions in supporting the national economy, the release added.

The facility, structured as a term-loan, will be provided to Prime Bank’s offshore banking unit by the Opec Fund.

It carries an initial tenor of one year, with a provision for extension up to three years.

This financing is expected to strengthen Prime Bank’s trade finance portfolio, providing much-needed stability and support to Bangladeshi businesses navigating complex global economic headwinds.

A US naval blockade of Iranian ports is likely to squeeze Iran’s oil output in the coming weeks but claims it will throw the Islamic republic into economic free fall remain premature, analysts say.

After weeks of bombing and counter-strikes, focus has shifted to the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, which ordinarily carries around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

In response to Iran’s blockade of the strait since the start of the Middle East war, the US imposed a counter-blockade of the Islamic republic’s ports, a push to force its leaders into a compromise in peace talks.

That bid, however, looks set to fail, at least in the short term.

“If the blockade lasts for more than two or three months, it can cause more damage” to Iran, economic analyst and professor at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran Saeed Laylaz told AFP.

“If Iran suffers any damage, the damage to the countries in the southern Persian Gulf will definitely be greater,” he added.

There’s a limit on how long Iran can bide its time, however.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management said Iran “was expected to run out of storage capacity within approximately one month, but it may already be forced to shut in part of its oil production within a couple of weeks”.

‘COLLAPSING FINANCIALLY?’

Trump said Tuesday that Iran was “collapsing financially” under the blockade imposed by the US Navy on April 12, claiming that the country was “starving for cash”.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the blockade meant storage at Iran’s Kharg Island, the main export terminal through which most of the country’s crude is shipped, “will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in”.

Jamie Ingram, managing editor of Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), told AFP it was likely the timeline for Iran to hit its oil storage limits would be measured in “weeks rather than days”.

He added it was likely that “Iran will slightly reduce production before getting to the stage where storage constraints start to bite”.

According to analysis by oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi shared by energy intelligence firm Kpler, Iran’s crude production has already slowed since the start of the war.

Output fell by around 200,000 barrels per day in March to 3.68 million bpd and is expected to drop a further 420,000 bpd in April to about 3.43 million bpd, reflecting “the broader impact of export disruptions and refining constraints linked to the ongoing conflict,” Falakshahi said.

But Laylaz in Tehran said beyond the psychological effect of the blockade, the “real material effect has been small so far”.

Ingram said Kharg Island “shouldn’t be a particular bottleneck,” for Iran.

“This is the final storage facility used before oil is exported and Iran can divert crude oil to other facilities rather than straight to Kharg,” he said.

‘MUTUALLY ASSURED DISRUPTION’

The MEES expert also said Iran’s dependency on oil exports via Hormuz had “deepened due to the damage caused by US and Israeli strikes to other sections of the Iranian economy”.

“But Iran has also proven its ability to withstand huge oil-revenue declines during previous rounds of sanctions. I would not underestimate the regime’s resilience in this regard,” he added.

As the initial two-week truce between Iran and the US was set to expire Trump had said Tuesday he would maintain the ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks.

Iran said it welcomed the efforts by mediator Pakistan but made no other comment on Trump’s announcement, while vowing not to reopen Hormuz so long as the US blockade remains in place.

“It will take a long time before such economic pain forces Iran to compromise,” Ingram said, explaining it is “more likely economic disruption... pushes China into exerting more pressure on Iran to negotiate”.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said “Iran’s economy was battered before the war, is contending with added strains caused during it, and now faces the combination of sanctions, seizures and potential strikes”.

“Iran’s leadership has previously shown a high threshold for pain even if the pressure on ordinary Iranians increases. It also likely calculates that its own efforts to subdue traffic through Hormuz act as a sort of mutually assured disruption,” he added.

Demand for rooftop solar systems across Europe has surged since the start of the Iran war, as households rush to shield themselves from soaring power prices triggered by the worst global energy disruption in history.

The ​conflict has pushed oil, gas and electricity prices sharply higher, hitting companies and households alike and accelerating efforts to find cheaper alternatives and reduce exposure to volatile energy ‌markets.

Solar is among those options, with demand from homeowners more than doubling for some industry players since the war began in late February, according to interviews with more than half a dozen energy equipment wholesalers and renewable utilities in Germany, Britain and the Netherlands.

It’s a timely boost for a technology that accounts for about a third of Europe’s total power capacity, but saw the pace of new installations dip last year for the first time in ​nearly a decade. Industry advocates argue Europe still needs to do far more to cut its reliance on imported oil and gas.

“The war has merely exposed the problem that has ​existed all along: energy dependency,” said Janik Nolden, co-founder of German privately owned solar equipment wholesaler Solarhandel24, adding European governments had been “walking into a trap”.

Solarhandel24 said net sales more than tripled in March to nearly 70 million euros ($82 million) from a year earlier, and are expected to triple again this month to ​as much as 60 million euros. The company plans to expand its workforce by about 85 people, roughly a third, to cope with demand.

To secure supply, Solarhandel24 has stocked up around half a ​million solar panels in recent weeks - a costly decision, Nolden said, but one he sees as worthwhile given the potential for net sales to rise to around 400 million euros in 2026 from about 250 million euros last year.

Germany’s Enpal is seeing a similar trend. The energy firm said orders rose 30 percent year-on-year in March to 130 million euros, while April was on track for a 33 percent increase to about 120 million euros, driven by rooftop ​solar installations.

“This is about European resilience,” said Enpal CEO and founder Mario Kohle. “We are seeing this trend in the defence sector too. Just as Europe must be able to defend itself, we must ​be able to supply our own energy.”

The financial figures from Solarhandel24 and Enpal have not been previously reported.

While aggregated installation data for Europe are not yet available, industry associations in Germany and the Netherlands have confirmed ‌a pickup ⁠in demand since the war began.

Executives say homeowners are increasingly opting for full systems combining solar panels - nearly 90 percent of which are supplied by China - with batteries and electric-vehicle wallboxes, allowing surplus power to be stored and used later.

That trend is also lifting demand for energy storage technologies, which Holland Solar’s Wijnand van Hooff says is seeing demand increases of 40 percent-50 percent.

“This cannot be explained by purely seasonal factors,” said Filip Thon of E.ON (EONGn.DE), , Europe’s largest energy network operator, which also sells rooftop solar systems. Customer requests, he said, have nearly doubled year-on-year.

A STRUCTURAL SHIFT?

Some executives also point to upcoming changes ​to Germany’s renewable energy law as an additional ​driver of demand for rooftop installations, which ⁠typically cost between 10,000 and 20,000 euros for an average family home.

The war-driven surge comes after the pace of new European solar installations slowed, in 2025, according to industry lobby SolarPower Europe, with weak residential demand a key factor following the phase-out of support schemes.

Shares in SMA Solar (S92G.DE), , the world’s third-largest ​solar inverter maker and one of the few remaining European equipment producers, have risen about 50 percent since the war began. The company has ​also reported an uptick in ⁠demand.

“We view the spike in demand as a structural shift that current geopolitical events are accelerating, not creating,” said Ed Janvrin, who heads the solar and heating business at Britain’s OVO Energy, adding April sales in the division were roughly 10 times higher than a year earlier.

Chinese solar manufacturers, however, say any war-related boost in global demand is unlikely to significantly ease the sector’s overcapacity, with China alone having enough ⁠manufacturing capacity to ​meet this year’s expected global demand nearly twice over.

Even so, the surge highlights how geopolitical shocks can rapidly reprice ​the value of renewables, said Jannik Schall, co-founder of German renewables firm 1Komma5Grad, noting that solar demand during the 2022 energy crisis had been even stronger.

“The recurring energy crises prove the renewables sector right.”

When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) database on April 14, one data point quickly made its way through financial markets and newsrooms.

Bangladesh is projected to record a higher gross domestic product per capita than India in 2026, measured in current US dollars. The forecast puts Bangladesh at $2,911 per person against India at $2,812. The difference is small in absolute terms, but its symbolism is significant.

India’s economy, valued at $3,916 billion in 2025, is roughly eight times the size of Bangladesh’s $458 billion. It is also one of the most closely watched growth stories in the world. Yet on this narrow measure, the smaller neighbour appears set to edge ahead.

The reaction in India was swift. Kaushik Basu, former chief economist of the World Bank, described the development as "shocking". Indian commentators debated whether the figure reflected a deeper structural divergence or merely a statistical quirk.

The answer, as is so often the case with economic data, is: both.

Measured in current dollars, Bangladesh led India in per capita income for seven years from 2018.

India moved ahead in 2025 after the Bangladeshi taka weakened sharply. This is not without precedent.

Bangladesh was also ahead of India in per capita GDP between 1989 and 2002.

India then pulled in front for around 15 years before slipping below Bangladesh in 2018.

The rupee's own depreciation against the dollar in the subsequent period then swung the comparison back.

According to the latest projections, Bangladesh is set to move ahead in 2026 by roughly $100 per person.

The IMF expects India to regain the lead in 2027 and to remain ahead at least until 2031.

To understand why this measure is so volatile, consider the arithmetic.

GDP per capita in current dollars is calculated by converting each country's output into US dollars at the prevailing exchange rate.

When a currency depreciates — as both the taka and the rupee have done in recent years, though at different speeds — it compresses the dollar value of output regardless of how productive the underlying economy has become.

The crossing of the two lines in 2026, seen on any given screen, tells us something real: that exchange-rate dynamics now place the two economies' dollar incomes within touching distance of each other. It does not, on its own, tell us which population is better off.

The second measure complicates the picture considerably. The IMF also publishes GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), which strips out exchange-rate movements and instead converts output into a common "international dollar" based on what each currency can actually buy domestically.

On this basis, India leads Bangladesh by a wide margin — and always has in the modern era.

In 2025, India's PPP-adjusted GDP per capita stands at $11,789 — some 15 percent above Bangladesh's $10,271.

By 2031, the IMF projects the gap will widen to nearly 24 percent, with India reaching $18,485 against Bangladesh's $14,857.

Nearly 1.6 crore people in Bangladesh faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025, placing the country among the top ten nations with the largest number of people struggling to secure enough food, according to the latest Global Report on Food Crises.

The 2026 report, published by an alliance of UN agencies, the European Union and other partners, said that food conditions in those ten worst-affected countries are unlikely to improve this year.

Together, including Afghanistan, Myanmar and Pakistan, they accounted for two-thirds of the 26.6 crore people worldwide who experienced acute food insecurity last year.

The other countries on the list are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen.

The report said chronic economic weakness continues to erode resilience at both household and national levels.

"Half of the world's poorest people live in five countries, three of which -- Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria -- are in protracted food crises," it said.

Acute food insecurity occurs when one or more dimensions of food security, including availability, access, utilisation and stability, are disrupted to a degree that threatens lives or livelihoods.

Despite the scale of the challenge, Bangladesh recorded progress. The number of people facing acute food insecurity fell by 32 percent in 2025 compared with the previous year, with no major natural disasters reported.

The report, however, highlighted worsening conditions among forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals in two districts, amid a fresh influx of Rohingya refugees, flooding and cuts to humanitarian assistance.

Bangladesh is also listed among countries facing a moderate nutrition crisis, alongside Niger, parts of Nigeria and Sudan, and the Syrian Arab Republic, even as overall food security indicators improved.

Qu Dongyu, director-general of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said acute food insecurity had become structural rather than temporary. "Acute food insecurity today is not just widespread -- it is also persistent and recurring.”

Conflict remained the primary driver, accounting for more than half of all people facing severe hunger. More than 39 million people in 32 countries faced emergency levels of food insecurity, while the number experiencing catastrophic hunger had risen ninefold since 2016.

Children bore a heavy toll. In 2025, 35.5 million children were acutely malnourished, including nearly 10 million suffering from severe acute malnutrition.

Ricardo Pires, spokesperson for the UN Children's Fund (Unicef), warned that children with severe wasting faced heightened mortality risk, as weakened immune systems left them vulnerable to ordinarily non-fatal illnesses.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres, writing in the foreword, called for scaled-up investment in aid and an end to the conflicts driving the crisis.

The report also states that the outlook for 2026 remains bleak. Ongoing conflict, climate shocks, economic instability and Middle East-linked supply chain disruptions are expected to sustain critical food insecurity levels across multiple countries.

Bangladesh’s macroeconomic outlook is fragile as it faces three concurrent adverse external headwinds, including the Middle East crisis and the country’s impending graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category, said the Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh yesterday.

Presenting the institute’s Monthly Macroeconomic Insights at its Dhaka office, Principal Economist Ashikur Rahman said uncertainty around US tariff policies is another factor casting a shadow over the economy’s prospects for a faster recovery.

“These shocks are feeding through energy prices, weakened trade flows, and supply chain disruptions, with broad economy-wide implications,” he said.

At the same time, pressure is building on the balance of payments amid weaker exports and higher energy costs, with limited policy buffers heightening overall vulnerability amid the US-Israel war on Iran.

Rahman noted that around 31 percent of Bangladesh’s energy imports originate from the Middle East, largely transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A study by Zero Carbon Analytics found that severe price shocks could raise the country’s energy bill by 40 percent to $16-$17 billion in the ongoing fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26).

The PRI economist noted that Bangladesh has seen a fragile recovery over the 18 months to February 2026, with reserves rising from about $18 billion to $30 billion, inflation easing to 8-9 percent, and deposit growth strengthening.

“Yet, this recovery was underpinned by core vulnerabilities,” said Rahman, noting growth slowed to 3 percent in the second quarter of FY26, the weakest since Covid. Non-performing loans stand at around 30 percent, dampening private credit growth to 6 percent, while limited fiscal space is pushing the government toward costly bank borrowing.

Against this backdrop, Rahman warned that rolling back reforms now would be self-defeating. “If we step back from economic reforms at this stage, it would be an economically suicidal decision. It must be treated as a national economic imperative.”

The reforms, he stressed, should not be framed as conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “These are essential for strengthening our own economy and ensuring long-term growth.”

ICC Bangladesh President Mahbubur Rahman, speaking as the chief guest, said persistent uncertainty is making it harder for businesses to plan.

He pointed to a disconnect between policy direction and business expectations as a drag on private investment — and, by extension, on foreign direct investment. “In Bangladesh, politics and business often operate in parallel rather than in coordination. In reality, they should be deeply interconnected. Government, businesses, and investors are part of the same ecosystem.”

Besides, he said weak domestic investment is also constraining foreign direct investment inflows. “Local investment is not picking up, and naturally that raises a question: how will foreign direct investment come if domestic investors themselves are hesitant? Even machinery imports are declining because investors lack confidence.”

Uncertainty over energy supply and financial sector risks are key concerns, he said. “There is deep uncertainty among investors about whether they will get gas or electricity tomorrow. This lack of predictability is holding back decisions.

“On top of that, fears of becoming loan defaulters and difficulties in accessing finance are further increasing risk perception.”

Khondokar Shakhawat Ali, a visiting research fellow at the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development at BRAC University, stressed that economic stability requires structural reforms rather than short-term fixes.

He also pointed to the close nexus between political actors, bureaucrats, and sections of the private sector, saying, “It has blurred lines of responsibility and made reform more urgent.”

With Bangladesh facing both internal and external shocks, he cautioned that without prudent fiscal management, the country risks sliding into a deeper economic crisis.

Meanwhile, highlighting rising external risks, PRI Chairman Zaidi Sattar said geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, are posing systemic risks to global supply chains and fertiliser trade.

“Rising food, fuel, and fertiliser prices are pushing up import costs and intensifying inflationary pressures,” he said.

On Bangladesh’s LDC graduation, he said preparedness remains limited due to gaps in export diversification and competitiveness.

He also noted slow reform progress, stressing that “comprehensive tax reform is essential to strengthen domestic resource mobilisation.”

Former National Board of Revenue (NBR) chairman Muhammad Abdul Mazid said revenue reform is essential for economic stability, warning that delays will deepen fiscal risks.

“We must stop thinking that reforms are imposed from outside; these are reforms we need for our own survival,” he said, adding that continued failure to meet revenue targets is pushing the government into a cycle of borrowing that weakens the financial system.

“You cannot fix the economy without fixing the revenue system. This is where the foundation lies,” he said, noting that while reforms take time, postponing them will only raise long-term costs.

“If the economic ‘bleeding’ continues and we fail to act, recovery will become extremely difficult,” he added.

Top business leaders have urged the market regulator to be flexible on the use of initial public offering (IPO) funds for loan repayment, including allowing repayment of rescheduled loans amid a challenging business climate.

They made the request at a meeting organised by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) at its Dhaka office yesterday to discuss the use of IPO proceeds.

Syed Nasim Manzur, managing director of Apex Footwear Limited, said many countries, including neighbouring ones, do not impose restrictions on the use of IPO funds for loan repayment.

Considering global standards, the scope for using IPO proceeds to repay loans could be expanded, he added.

In 2025, the regulator introduced the Public Offer of Equity Securities Rules, 2025. Under the new rules, companies may use up to 30 percent of IPO proceeds for debt repayment or investment, subject to conditions.

For loan repayment, the borrowing must have been used for a company project, business, machinery, renovation or expansion, and an auditor report must confirm proper utilisation of the funds.

The loans being repaid cannot be classified or rescheduled. In other words, they must not be overdue or deferred because of repayment problems.

These provisions are stricter than those under the 2015 rules, which allowed up to one-third of IPO funds to be used for debt repayment or working capital without linking the loans to specific projects or imposing conditions on their classification status.

Riad Mahmud, president of the Bangladesh Association of Publicly Listed Companies, said even well-performing companies may incur losses because of global crises and economic challenges, and may have rescheduled loans.

It is not sufficient to follow strict policies based only on ideal situations; flexibility is also necessary considering real-world circumstances, he said.

Taking into account economic conditions and global crises, he called for allowing the repayment of rescheduled loans using IPO proceeds.

Mominul Islam, chairman of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, also spoke in favour of allowing IPO funds to be used for loan repayment.

Khondoker Rashed Maqsood, chairman of the BSEC, thanked stakeholders for their opinions and proposals. He said the regulator would evaluate their views and recommendations, adding that one of its key mandates is to protect investor interests in the capital market.

He said, “The commission will ensure overall market development while safeguarding investor interests.”

Maqsood also said efforts are ongoing to bring fundamentally strong companies to the capital market.

Tapan Chowdhury, chairman of the Central Depository Bangladesh Limited and managing director of Square Group, said regulators must assess whether IPO funds are used properly and whether they genuinely benefit the company or project.

He noted that many large and reputed groups in the country have highly ambitious projects, and merely relying on the group’s reputation should not justify using IPO proceeds to repay loans for such projects.

Abdul Hai Sarker, chairman of the Bangladesh Association of Banks, said a strong and developed capital market is an effective solution for maintaining competitiveness in the global market and ensuring economic growth.

He called for the proper development and expansion of the market.

Mashrur Arefin, chairman of the Association of Bankers Bangladesh, said companies should have an opportunity to restructure capital by repaying loans taken for productive or expansion purposes using IPO funds.

Considering the country’s economic conditions and various crises, he said loans that have not been rescheduled more than twice could be allowed under such provisions, while maintaining appropriate control mechanisms.

Kamran T Rahman, president of the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka, said, “In the country, short-term deposits are being used to finance long-term investments. This practice should be discouraged, and long-term financing should be ensured through the capital market. To achieve this, policy and regulatory alignment are necessary.”

AKM Habibur Rahman, chairman of the Chittagong Stock Exchange, Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh, and senior BSEC officials also attended the meeting.