Bangladesh-based agri-tech startup iFarmer has secured $1.5 million in foreign funding as it aims to strengthen the country’s agricultural value chain.

The funding comes from Symbiotics, a Switzerland-based market access platform for impact investing, according to a statement.

The investment will support iFarmer’s working capital requirements, enabling it to expand agricultural input distribution and strengthen market linkages for farmers across Bangladesh.

iFarmer said the investment marks another important milestone, as international investors continue to back technology-driven agricultural platforms that improve efficiency, transparency, and access to financing in emerging markets.

Bangladesh’s agriculture sector employs nearly 40 percent of the workforce and contributes significantly to the national economy, supporting around 25 million farmers across 17 million farms and accounting for about 12 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). However, farmers continue to face challenges related to financing, input quality, and market access.

iFarmer is addressing these challenges by building an integrated agricultural platform that connects farmers, retailers, suppliers, and institutional buyers through financing, digital advisory, input supply, and output market linkages.

With this new financing from Symbiotics, iFarmer will expand its agri-input distribution platform, KriShop, and strengthen its supply chain operations to ensure farmers have access to quality inputs and reliable market access for their produce, according to the statement.

The funding will also support iFarmer’s broader platform operations that connect farmers directly with large buyers, improving efficiency across the agricultural value chain.

Founded in 2019, iFarmer has grown into one of Bangladesh’s leading agri-fintech platforms, currently working with over 300,000 farmers and 24,000 agricultural retailers across the country.

The company combines embedded finance, digital advisory, input supply, and market linkage services into a single platform designed to increase farmers’ income and improve agricultural productivity.

Fahad Ifaz, co-founder and CEO of iFarmer, said, “This partnership with Symbiotics is an important step in our journey to build the digital and financial infrastructure for agriculture in Bangladesh.”

“Access to working capital is critical for scaling agricultural supply chains. With this investment, we will be able to expand our operations, reach more farmers and retailers, and strengthen market linkages across the agricultural ecosystem.”

“We believe this is just the beginning, and we look forward to working with more global partners who want to invest in building the future of agriculture in emerging markets.”

Aldric Luyt, head of fintech at Symbiotics, said, “This investment reflects our commitment to supporting underserved agricultural communities in Bangladesh. iFarmer’s innovative model improves supply chain efficiency and expands economic opportunities. Our investment will help scale their impact, contributing to more resilient and sustainable food systems.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised Bangladesh to withdraw all forms of tax exemptions, covering income tax, value-added tax (VAT), and customs duties, starting from the next national budget (FY2026-27).

Alongside ending tax exemptions, the IMF has also pressed for the reduction of supplementary duties imposed at the import stage.

The recommendation was raised during discussions at the Annual and Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group held in Washington, DC, sources at the National Board of Revenue (NBR) said.

A senior NBR official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Business Standard, "At the ongoing meetings, the IMF asked that all types of tax expenditure be withdrawn."

Another Bangladeshi representative in Washington said the IMF was urging the government to withdraw a large share of tax exemptions in the upcoming budget.

An official from the Bangladeshi delegation attending the IMF board meetings told TBS, requesting anonymity, that the lender had taken a positive stance on Bangladesh's request for additional budget support to help meet rising fuel import costs.

However, the size of the potential new loan and its conditions have yet to be finalised.

The official said the Bangladeshi delegation, led by Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, held separate meetings with IMF officials seeking the release of about $1.53 billion by June, including overdue instalments under the existing loan programme as well as fresh financing.

"During the discussions, the IMF maintained a firm position on implementing two key conditions of the main loan agreement," the official said.

"The conditions include cancelling all tax exemptions alongside tariff rationalisation, and withdrawing energy subsidies for gas and electricity while bringing low-income groups under social safety net programmes. If these conditions are implemented, the IMF is ready to release the funds within the current fiscal year," the official added.

The official added that the IMF also reiterated its call for Bangladesh to move towards a fully market-based exchange rate.

Officials from the Bangladesh Bank told the IMF that the country intends to gradually move towards a fully market-driven exchange rate in order to maintain economic stability.

The meetings, which began on 13 April, are scheduled to conclude on 18 April. Senior officials from the finance ministry are attending alongside NBR chairman Abdur Rahman Khan.

Wide range of exemptions currently in place

The government currently provides VAT, tax and import duty exemptions on most agricultural and food products. Some goods also enjoy partial exemptions.

Essential services such as education and healthcare also benefit from tax relief. Exemptions are also available for certain essential sectors, including fuel and electricity.

In addition, to encourage investment and job creation, the government offers income tax, VAT and customs duty exemptions for investors in export processing zones, economic zones and hi-tech parks. Export-oriented industries also receive tax incentives.

Remittances are fully exempt from tax to encourage overseas earnings. Bangladesh received more than $30 billion in remittances in the 2024-25 fiscal year, while export earnings stood at nearly $50 billion.

Tax exemptions – defined as the difference between standard tax or VAT rates and the amount actually collected due to concessions – represent a large fiscal cost.

According to the latest data from the NBR, tax exemptions in income tax, VAT, and customs duties amounted to about Tk2.66 lakh crore in the 2022-23 fiscal year. In comparison, total government revenue collection in that year stood at Tk3.25 lakh crore.

In 2022, during the tenure of the Awami League government, Bangladesh secured a $4.7 billion loan programme from the IMF. Of this amount, roughly $3 billion has already been disbursed in instalments.

However, the lender later suspended further disbursements toward the end of the interim government's tenure, citing slow progress in implementing reform measures under the programme.

Negotiations over the release of remaining funds resumed after a new government led by the BNP took office.

Experts warn against abrupt withdrawal

Economists say that while reducing tax exemptions is necessary, eliminating them entirely may not be feasible in the short term.

They warn that withdrawing exemptions across the board in line with IMF recommendations could increase tax burdens in several sectors. This could affect both wealthy and low-income groups directly and indirectly, potentially fuelling inflation.

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said removing all exemptions within a year would not be reasonable.

He warned that such a move could undermine the confidence of both local and foreign investors in government policy.

"The government should plan to withdraw these benefits through sunset clauses, which the NBR has already begun implementing," he said. "However, the entire exemption framework should first be reviewed before decisions are made."

Mustafizur noted that some sectors have enjoyed tax exemptions and incentives for more than 50 years.

"In some cases, individuals or groups have obtained exemptions through influence. These should not continue indefinitely," he said, adding that exemptions should be streamlined by lowering tax or VAT rates.

Towfiqul Islam Khan, an additional director at CPD, said the government needs stronger fiscal discipline and should align incentives with the country's graduation plan from the UN's least developed country status.

"Tax exemptions should be reduced gradually and according to a clear plan, particularly in sectors such as poultry, fisheries, agriculture and remittances," he said. "The principle should be simple – those who earn should pay tax."

Risks of abrupt policy shifts

Snehasish Barua, managing director of SMAC Advisory Limited, warned that an abrupt withdrawal of tax exemptions could trigger economic shocks.

"The sudden withdrawal of tax exemptions risks triggering an acute macroeconomic shock. Such an abrupt policy shift could destabilise capital markets, cripple RMG export competitiveness and fuel immediate cost-push inflation," he told The Business Standard.

"Moreover, it threatens to deter foreign direct investment, stifle the burgeoning digital economy and spark widespread corporate compliance crises."

He added that investors allocate capital based on established statutory frameworks and that removing incentives without a transition period could erode trust in fiscal policy.

"To navigate this necessary reform, a phased and predictable transition is vital. The government must rigorously audit all active tax exemptions to guarantee they deliver tangible strategic value," he said. "Moving forward, every tax expenditure must be tied to specific, measurable criteria, undergo stringent annual reviews and be bound by a mandatory sunset clause."

Govt signals shift in approach

While indicating a move away from the blanket tax exemptions granted by previous governments, the new administration has said it plans to introduce performance-based incentives.

Speaking to reporters after a meeting at the NBR on 29 March, the prime minister's adviser on finance and planning, Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, said, "The target would be met by accelerating economic activity through higher investment and employment, alongside structural and policy reforms; curbing tax evasion and fraud; and shifting from blanket tax exemptions and rebates to performance-based incentives."

According to NBR data, VAT exemptions currently apply to several products and raw materials under 53 different categories, most of which involve agricultural and food items.

Nine essential services related to basic needs – including social welfare, cultural activities, financial services, transport services and certain personal services – are also fully exempt from VAT.

The standard VAT rate currently stands at 15%.

Under the third schedule of the VAT law, reduced VAT rates are applied at different stages of production and supply for several goods.

At the import stage, many goods and services face substantial supplementary duties, in some cases reaching as high as 500%.

Experts say such high supplementary duties create uneven competition in the market and increase costs for consumers. The IMF has also urged Bangladesh to reduce these duties and make the tariff structure more rational.

The government does not want to dictate the Bangladesh Bank’s actions under any circumstances, said Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, the prime minister’s adviser on finance and planning.

“We do not want to dictate the central bank’s actions in any way. Our approach is to ensure coordination between fiscal and monetary policy,” he said.

“The central bank will listen to stakeholders, including you (businesses), and take appropriate actions independently.”

Titumir made the remarks yesterday at a discussion on synergising the banking sector from the lender and borrower perspectives, organised by the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) in the capital.

He stressed that reviving closed industries and expanding existing ones would be key to restoring economic momentum.

“Reviving closed factories is fundamental. This is how we bring dynamism back into the economy and generate employment,” he said.

Regarding efforts to tame inflation, Titumir said that the government is prioritising the people’s interests.

During the Ukraine war, despite fluctuations in global gas prices, the previous (Awami League) government repeatedly raised fuel prices, he said, shifting the burden onto citizens amid what he described as economic mismanagement and capital flight.

However, with a strong public mandate, the present government is prioritising easing pressure on people’s livelihoods, Titumir claimed, which is why fuel prices have not been increased despite external pressures.

Speaking on the upcoming national budget, he said the government is preparing a set of measures aimed at supporting micro, small, and medium enterprises (SMEs), which remain central to employment generation.

“These measures may include stimulus support, tax reforms, and the creation of joint financing funds,” he said.

DCCI President Taskeen Ahmed said the country’s industrial sector is going through a highly challenging period due to the prolonged absence of a business-friendly environment.

“There are several reasons for this, including declining production, rising outstanding loans in the industrial sector, a high rate of non-performing loans, reduced credit flow to the private sector despite no liquidity shortage, and increased government borrowing from the banking sector,” he said.

To address the situation, he stressed the need for structural reforms in the banking sector to ensure stability and good governance, as well as strengthening coordination between the banking and private sectors.

Ahmed said that the public sector credit growth has surged to an unprecedented 26.15 percent. Meanwhile, government borrowing from the banking system reached Tk 73,035 crore during the July-January period, a 673 percent increase compared to the same period last year, indicating that banks are increasingly prioritising risk-free lending.

“This trend has created a severe ‘credit crowding out’ effect, leaving the private sector deprived of adequate access to credit.”

He noted that many businessmen and SMEs are suffering because of a small number of wilful defaulters.

Nawshad Mustafa, director of the SME and Special Programmes Department of Bangladesh Bank, said a key challenge in the financial sector is the shortage of authentic and accurate data, which hampers effective decision-making.

He stressed the need for stronger AI-based connectivity among financial institutions and government agencies to improve data flow and policy formulation.

Abdul Hai Sarker, chairman of Bangladesh Association of Banks (BAB), said there is no alternative to simplifying SME financing, noting that private banks are now increasingly stepping in to fund the sector.

He also pointed to a lack of coordination between policymakers and stakeholders, which he said needs to be addressed.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman said today (15 April) Bangladesh is seeking a $2 billion fund from development partners to help overcome the energy crisis and stabilise the economy

"The situation before us demands urgency, solidarity and decisive action," he said while addressing the Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) Plus Online Summit.

The prime minister said immediate support for the most vulnerable countries must be at the top of the collective agenda of the summit.

"In this regard, Bangladesh is seeking to mobilise $2 billion from development partners to meet our immediate energy needs and safeguard our economic stability. We urge the international community to respond swiftly and positively to this call," he said.

The prime minister said the current global energy crisis is a stark reminder of global communities' shared vulnerability and interdependence.

No nation – regardless of its size or strength – can overcome this challenge in isolation, he said, adding that it demands a coordinated and forward-looking Asian response to strengthen regional energy security, address immediate supply disruptions, and support the most vulnerable countries.

"The energy crisis has already disrupted Bangladesh's economy. In response, we have taken a range of short-term measures to contain the impact," Tarique said.

He said the measures include demand-side management through the rationing of government office and market hours; stabilisation of fuel supplies through emergency imports and diversification of sourcing; and consumption controls, including fuel rationing and limits on retail sales to prevent hoarding and panic buying through initiatives such as 'Fuel App'.

The prime minister said Bangladesh is concerned that the scale and consequences of this crisis could exceed those of the 1970's oil shock, which triggered a decade of stalled development in the 1980s.

Since gaining independence in 1971, he said Bangladesh has worked relentlessly to drive economic growth, lift millions out of poverty, and improve the quality of life for its people. "Today, these hard-earned gains are in danger, facing the real threat of reversal."

The prime minister said Bangladesh is not alone in facing this risk, nor can the country overcome it through national effort alone.

"This moment calls for a decisive and coordinated global action, to contain the impact of the ongoing energy crisis, particularly to protect vulnerable countries, including the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), from its severe economic and social impact," he said.

Tarique Rahman appreciated Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for convening this timely and important Summit.

Tarique Rahman addressed the AZEC Plus Online Summit from his Bangladesh Parliament Secretariat office.

Bangladesh Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman and PM's Foreign Affairs Adviser Humayun Kabir were present.

Heads of state and governments of various countries, including Prime Minister of Japan Sanae Takaichi, also virtually spoke on the occasion.

Heads of the government and the representatives of different countries, including India, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Timor-Leste, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Australia, Brunei, Cambodia and Indonesia, participated in the online summit.

The organisations from which representatives joined the session are International Energy Agency (IEA) and Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Uber has committed more than $10 billion to buying thousands of autonomous vehicles and taking stakes in their developers, breaking from its asset-light "gig economy" business model to avoid disruption from robotaxis, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.

Reuters could not immediately verify the report. Uber did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Uber is positioning itself as a marketplace for multiple robotaxi operators, and has partnered across much of the autonomous vehicle industry, including with Baidu, Rivian and Lucid, and has outlined plans to launch robotaxi services in at least 28 cities by 2028.

These deals put Uber on track to invest more than $2.5 billion in equity stakes and spend over $7.5 billion on robotaxi fleets in the next few years, FT reported, citing its calculations based on analyst estimates and people familiar with Uber's deals. The agreements are contingent on its partners hitting certain deployment milestones.

Interest in driverless taxis has surged in recent months after years of missed promises, with artificial intelligence and tech partnerships offering hopes of solving complex traffic scenarios faster and mitigating high costs.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, after holding a video conference with leaders from Southeast Asia, told reporters that the assistance, dubbed "Power Asia," is aimed at providing loans needed to secure crude oil, petroleum products, and to maintain the supply chain in an emergency response to help hard-hit nations.

The fund also aims to expand an oil reserve system within Asia, diversify energy, and promote energy conservation and industrial advancement, Takaichi said.

Japan, which imports petroleum-related products such as medical supplies from Southeast Asia, is increasingly worried that the region's oil supply shortages would affect the Japanese economy.

The fund is one year's worth of oil imports for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations member countries, or about 1.2 billion barrels, Takaichi said. The assistance is not meant to just provide oil, but for Asian nations to support each other.

Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir has assured that the government will not impose any additional tax burden on businesses in the upcoming national budget despite mounting fiscal pressures.

Reducing the cost of doing business and easing access to government services are essential to boost private sector investment and trade, he made the remarks while addressing a pre-budget discussion organised by the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) at a hotel in Dhaka today (13 April).

The minister acknowledged that the government is under significant financial strain due to what he described as "over-ambitious projects" undertaken by the previous administration.

He noted that although Bangladesh's economy is valued at around $460 billion, nearly 70 million people remain below the poverty line, while the number of taxpayers is still relatively low.

Muktadir also pointed to the country's limited energy storage capacity, which forces reliance on higher-cost fuel imports from the spot market amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Emphasising the need for expansion of the tax net, DCCI President Taskeen Ahmed said sustaining economic growth would require automation and simplification of revenue collection systems.

He proposed raising the tax-free income threshold to Tk5 lakh, capping the maximum personal income tax rate at 25%, aligning the tax rates of non-listed companies with those of listed ones and abolishing the advance VAT system.

The business leader also called for modernisation of financial sector policies to ensure stability, reduction of non-performing loans, stabilisation of foreign exchange reserves, and rationalisation of policy interest rates to encourage manufacturing investment.

He highlighted the need for uninterrupted energy supply, diversification of export products and markets, and targeted incentives for promising sectors in the upcoming budget.

Mahbubur Rahman, president of the International Chamber of Commerce Bangladesh, observed that although calls to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio have persisted for years, there has been limited effective action.

He said that high lending rates, reduced credit flow to the private sector, and ongoing power and energy shortages are discouraging both domestic and foreign investment.

Mahbubur urged the government to explore alternative energy import sources and reduce reliance on intermediaries, while ensuring a stable and predictable policy environment.

Monzur Hossain, member (secretary) of the General Economics Division, emphasised that reviving sluggish economic growth remains a key priority for the government, underscoring the importance of promoting the cottage, micro, small, and medium enterprises sector and strengthening research activities to expand investment.

Former DCCI President Rizwan Rahman highlighted that bureaucratic complexities and alleged harassment from the tax authority are severely affecting the private sector.

He noted that the lack of effective initiatives to expand the tax net is increasing pressure on existing taxpayers and called for grassroots-level investment incentives along with higher allocations for healthcare and education.

Another former DCCI President Hossain Khaled said that only about 30% of transactions occur through formal channels, limiting effective revenue collection, and suggested that the current VAT system could be replaced with a GST framework.

KM Rezaul Hasanat David, president of the Bangladesh Independent Power Producers' Association, said expressed concern over delays in establishing a land-based LNG terminal and stressed the importance of expanding energy storage capacity and attracting joint and foreign investment.

Chief Economist of Bangladesh Bank Akhand Mohammad Akhtar Hossain emphasised the need to increase foreign investment, ensure accountability in government service delivery, and control inflation.

Participants across the four thematic sessions on income tax and VAT, financial sector, industry and trade, and infrastructure emphasised the need for comprehensive reforms, including automation of the revenue system, realistic tax collection targets, uninterrupted energy supply, improved infrastructure, stable exchange rates, lower lending rates, and stronger governance in the financial sector.

DCCI members, economists, researchers, and representatives from both public and private sectors also attended the event.

The Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) has proposed raising the individual tax-free income threshold to Tk5 lakh and capping the maximum personal income tax rate at 25% as part of its recommendations for the national budget for fiscal year 2026–27.

The proposals were presented today (13 April) at a pre-budget consultation titled "Budget 2026–27: Private Sector Expectations," held at InterContinental Dhaka, with participation from policymakers, economists and business leaders.

Tax reforms and compliance measures

DCCI recommended setting the corporate tax rate for non-listed companies at 25%, aligning it with listed firms to ensure parity and encourage formalisation.

To improve compliance and transparency, the chamber proposed introducing a fully automated corporate tax return system.

It also suggested integrating the e-TDS platform with the National Board of Revenue (NBR) system to accelerate processing and enhance verification efficiency.

Additionally, DCCI called for the gradual withdrawal of advance tax at the import stage for manufacturers and a reduction for commercial importers.

VAT system overhaul

In the value-added tax (VAT) regime, the chamber proposed abolishing advance VAT and introducing a mobile application to complement the existing online system.

It also recommended implementing a single-step refund mechanism to expedite VAT reimbursements and reduce administrative delays.

Boosting private investment

To stimulate private sector investment, DCCI urged the rationalisation of interest rates and reducing government reliance on domestic bank borrowing.

The chamber also emphasised expanding access to credit through refinancing schemes and credit guarantee programmes to support businesses, particularly SMEs.

Capital market development

DCCI called for strengthening the capital market by increasing initial public offerings (IPOs) and encouraging large corporations and small and medium enterprises to go public.

It also proposed introducing long-term financing instruments such as bonds to diversify funding sources.

Sectoral support ahead of LDC graduation

Highlighting the importance of Bangladesh's upcoming graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status, DCCI urged targeted policy support for key sectors, including leather, pharmaceuticals, ICT, electronics and light engineering.

The chamber further recommended budget allocations for emerging sectors such as semiconductor research and artificial intelligence, along with the establishment of specialised industrial zones.

Infrastructure and investment incentives

To accelerate infrastructure development, DCCI proposed tax incentives, including exemptions on high-cost construction materials and machinery.

It also suggested introducing infrastructure bonds and sukuk to attract long-term investment.

Energy, governance and sustainability

DCCI stressed the importance of stable energy pricing through long-term import agreements and improved project management through real-time monitoring systems.

It recommended prioritising the completion of ongoing projects over launching new mega projects to ensure efficient resource utilisation.

The chamber also called for establishing secure data centres for the service sector and allocating budgetary support for environmental, social and governance (ESG) compliance to enhance global competitiveness.

Mobile financial service provider Nagad has consolidated its position as the leading platform for disbursing government allowances—including old-age, widow, and disability benefits—as well as education stipends under the national social safety net programme.

Although the disbursement window is open to all financial institutions, Nagad remains the preferred platform for beneficiaries, according to a press release issued on Monday.

In the January–March quarter of this year, approximately 1.47 crore beneficiaries selected Nagad to receive government allowances and stipends. During this period, total government disbursements through Nagad reached Tk3,049.23 crore across several categories.

Of this total, the largest number of beneficiaries and highest volume of funds were disbursed under the government's social safety net programme. Between January and March, around 1.31 crore beneficiaries received Tk2,878.35 crore through Nagad accounts—Tk300 crore more than in the same period last year.

Nagad also disbursed Tk32.68 crore in education stipends to 4,12,697 primary school students during the quarter.

During the same period, 5,785 students participating in sewing and embroidery training programmes received Tk2.68 crore through Nagad, marking an increase from the corresponding period last year.

In technical education, 1,22,937 students received stipends totalling Tk45.58 crore through Nagad—nearly Tk10 crore more than in the same period a year earlier.

Under the Madrasa Education Directorate, 38,055 students received Tk3.43 crore in stipends via the platform.

Meanwhile, under the Mother and Child Benefit Programme, Nagad disbursed Tk86.50 crore in maternity allowances to 10,11,557 beneficiaries.

The government also distributed funds under the 'Family Card' programme on a pilot basis through Nagad as part of the social safety net during the same period.

Md Samsul Islam, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer of Nagad, stated, "Nagad remains the preferred choice for customers receiving allowances, stipends, and government grants. We are grateful to our customers and the government for their trust. This confidence is a testament to our service quality, and as a result, both the number of beneficiaries and the volume of disbursements through Nagad continue to rise each quarter."

In the 2024–25 fiscal year, the government disbursed Tk9,000 crore in social safety net allowances via Nagad. The amount is expected to increase further in the current fiscal year, according to the press release.

Gold hit a near one-week low on Monday as a stronger dollar and ‌oil’s surge above $100 after the US moved to blockade Iranian ports fuelled inflation concerns, prompting traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Spot gold was down 0.4 percent at $4,730.75 ​per ounce, as of 0735 GMT, after hitting its lowest since April 7 ​earlier in the day at $4,643. US gold futures for June delivery fell 0.7 percent to $4,753.30.

The dollar strengthened 0.3 percent as the US Navy prepared a blockade of ​the Strait of Hormuz that could restrict Iranian oil shipments after peace talks between the US ​and Iran broke down.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded by warning that military vessels approaching the strait will be considered a ceasefire breach and dealt with harshly and decisively.

“Ceasefire optimism has unwound following the failure of ​the peace talks, and the resulting push higher by the dollar and oil ​prices has put gold on the back foot again,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM ‌Trade.

Spot gold ⁠has fallen more than 11 percent since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February. While inflation and geopolitical risks typically boost gold’s appeal as a safe haven, elevated interest rates weigh on the non-yielding metal.

A stronger dollar also makes greenback-priced bullion more expensive for ​holders of other ​currencies.

“As soon as oil ⁠prices push back above $100, attention quickly turns to potential central bank rate hikes to curb inflation, and it is this interest ​rate outlook that is undermining gold’s performance,” Waterer said.

Traders now ​see little ⁠chance of a US rate cut this year, as higher energy prices threaten to feed into broader inflation and limit the scope for monetary easing.

Investors had priced in two Fed ⁠rate cuts ​for 2026 before the start of the war.

Interest payments, subsidies, incentives and cash loans could gobble up big pies of the next budget as the government earmarks over Tk 2.59 trillion on this account and officials predict higher energy costs could bloat the figure.

The sum is roughly 27.86 per cent of the national budget worth Tk 9.3 trillion for fiscal year 206-27, officials at the finance division say.Personal Finance Software

The amount is 7.99-percent higher than the Tk 2.39-trillion revised allocation in the current fiscal year.

They say subsidy allocations have not been estimated taking into account a potential doubling of fuel-import costs amid the ongoing volatility and caution that if the Gulf conflict persists, additional funding will be required for gas, power and fertiliser subsidies.

Finance Ministry officials also warn that government's interest burden on domestic borrowing could rise further if inflation does not ease and liquidity in the financial sector takes longer to recover.

Further fiscal pressure may arise if the BNP government proceeds with its election pledges to implement "family card" and "farmer card", which would require additional allocations, they note.

The projections emerged at a meeting of the Coordination Council on Fiscal, Monetary and Exchange Rate Affairs held last Friday with Finance Minister Ameer Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury in the chair.

According to documents presented at the meeting, the budget deficit for the next fiscal year has been estimated at Tk 2.35 trillion, or 3.4 per cent of GDP, taking into account the heavy burden of subsidies, incentives and debt obligations. In the revised budget for the current fiscal year, the deficit was set at 3.3 per cent of GDP, amounting to Tk 2.0 trillion.

To finance the deficit, the government plans to borrow Tk 1.19 trillion from domestic sources like banks and savings instruments, while Tk 1.16 trillion from foreign sources, an overall increase of Tk 350 billion, or 17.5 per cent, compared to the current fiscal year.

External borrowing alone is set to surge by over 84 per cent, according to the documents.

Officials note that the government is increasingly leaning towards external borrowing to ease pressure from high-cost domestic debt, as a significant share of interest payments is tied to bank loans and savings certificates.

Interest payments alone are estimated at Tk 1.42 trillion in the next budget, including Tk 1.15 trillion for domestic debt and Tk 270 billion for foreign loans.

However, officials caution that interest expenses could rise further if inflation persists, fuel prices increase, or liquidity conditions in the banking sector fail to improve.

Subsidy allocations, meanwhile, remain under pressure amid global energy-price volatility. The government has earmarked Tk 370.0 billion for the power sector, Tk 65.0 billion for LNG, Tk 270.0 billion for fertiliser and Tk 96.0 billion for food-support programmes.

Total spending on subsidies, incentives and cash loans is set at Tk 1.17 trillion, up from Tk 1.12 trillion in the revised budget.

Officials note that subsidy needs could increase further if the ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to push up fuel-import costs. The finance minister recently informed parliament that higher global fuel prices had already added Tk 360.0 billion in subsidy pressure during March-June of the current fiscal year.

While allocations for agricultural, export and jute incentives are being kept unchanged, remittance incentives are set to rise by Tk 8.0 billion to Tk 70.0 billion, reflecting stronger inflows.

"Expenditures such as interest payments offer little scope for control," says economist and former Director-General of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Dr Mustafa K. Mujeri, adding that the government has scope of controlling such spending in future.Local Business Directory

He told The Financial Express that subsidy spending, financed by public funds, needs to be rationalised through careful targeting.

He suggests phasing out blanket subsidies and limiting support to sectors that do not directly benefit the poor, warning that failure to do so would raise the debt burden on future generations.

Stocks at the Dhaka bourse slipped back into losses yesterday after a brief rebound in the previous session, as persistent sell-offs driven by cautious investor sentiment eroded early gains.

The downturn came amid heightened global uncertainty following the failure of talks between the US and Iran, prompting investors to offload shares and adopt a wait-and-see approach.

The benchmark index, DSEX, of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) fell by 41 points to close at 5,230. Market turnover also declined by 5%, while total market capitalisation dropped by Tk2,555 crore to Tk6.85 lakh crore, according to DSE data.

Market breadth remained negative, with 55% of traded stocks declining, compared to 31% advancing, while 14% remained unchanged.

The decline follows a modest recovery in the previous session when the market snapped a losing streak.

On Sunday, the DSEX gained 14 points after shedding around 60 points in earlier sessions.

Yesterday's trading began on a positive note, with indices staying in the green for the first 38 minutes until 10:38am, supported by early buying interest. However, the momentum proved short-lived as selling pressure, particularly in blue-chip stocks, pulled the indices into losses.

By the end of the session, the Shariah-based index DSES fell by 3 points to 1,057, while the blue-chip DS30 index declined by 31 points to 1,981.

Data showed that around 60% of A-category stocks, typically known for offering over 10% dividends, registered price declines. Meanwhile, 40% of Z-category stocks, considered junk stocks, also lost value.

In contrast, mutual funds posted gains, with 73% of traded funds closing higher.

In its daily market commentary, EBL Securities said the market failed to sustain the previous session's recovery as geopolitical concerns dampened investor confidence.

"Although the market opened on a positive note, the momentum quickly faded as jittery sentiment triggered broad-based sell-offs," the brokerage firm noted.

"Selling pressure intensified in large-cap stocks as the session progressed, dragging the broad index into negative territory and reflecting a lack of confidence among investors," it added.

Among the gainers, Mir Akhter Hossain Ltd topped the chart with a 9.82% rise to Tk31.3 per share. It was followed by Yeakin Polymer (9.03%), Fareast Finance (8.69%), Phoenix Finance 1st Mutual Fund (8.61%), and Premier Leasing (8.3%).

On the losing side, Meghna Condensed Milk Industries led the decliners, falling 4.67% to Tk36.7 per share, despite its operations remaining suspended for years. Other major losers included Apex Tannery (4.33%), KDS Accessories (4.27%), Sena Insurance (4.22%), and Peoples Insurance (3.86%).

The capital market in Bangladesh faces persistent problems with trust. IPO fraud and manipulation continue despite reforms, undermining investor confidence and impeding economic growth. Long-term stability and national development are at stake.

The nation has learned painful lessons. An estimated $27 billion in market value—roughly 22 percent of GDP at the time—was destroyed by the crashes of 1996 and, more catastrophically, 2010–2011. Millions of investors suffered losses, leaving social repercussions that still shape public perception of the stock market. The same structural flaws remain more than a decade later.

Recent enforcement data highlight the severity. The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) fined individuals nearly Tk 1,488 crore in the past 18 months for manipulation and misconduct. Yet only a fraction has been recovered due to lengthy legal battles. This gap between punishment and accountability sends the wrong signal: wrongdoing is costly on paper but not in practice.

Systemic weaknesses drive these failures—coordinated trading through omnibus accounts, abuse of placement shares, diversion of IPO proceeds, and lack of real-time surveillance. Bangladesh’s market capitalization remains low, around 6 percent of GDP in mid-2025, compared to over 100 percent in deeper, better-run markets. This underdevelopment hampers financing for infrastructure, SMEs, and industrial growth—key to Vision 2041 and the “Smart Bangladesh” agenda.

Globally, fraud persists but is increasingly managed with technology. Scandals like Enron and Madoff spurred regulators to adopt AI for real-time surveillance. Exchanges are also testing blockchain-based settlement systems that are faster, cheaper, and more transparent. Emerging economies such as India and Brazil have embraced digital reforms, strengthening disclosure, monitoring, and enforcement.

Bangladesh, however, still relies on manual oversight and fragmented data. In an era of cyber-enabled scams, this is insufficient. For a small, fragile market, each crisis inflicts disproportionate damage and deters investors. Modern technology offers a transformative opportunity.

Blockchain can fundamentally change IPOs and securities transactions. In a permissioned blockchain, every transaction is permanently recorded, time-stamped, and visible to authorized participants. Smart contracts can automate IPO rules—ensuring funds are released only when verified conditions are met, allocations follow transparent logic, and lock-up periods cannot be bypassed. Immutable records eliminate manipulation.

AI complements this as a real-time watchdog. It can analyze trading patterns, detect unusual movements, and identify coordinated networks far faster than traditional monitoring. Leading exchanges report fewer false alarms and quicker enforcement after adopting AI-driven systems.

Together, blockchain and AI create a powerful regulatory architecture: blockchain ensures data integrity, AI provides intelligence and early warning. Such systems could flag suspicious IPO activity, trigger halts during abnormal behaviour, and deliver regulators immediate, evidence-based alerts. Privacy-preserving technologies safeguard data.

For Bangladesh, implementation can be phased. Pilot IPOs integrated with the central securities depository would allow testing and scaling. International experience shows such reforms reduce fraud risk, shorten settlement cycles, improve liquidity, and restore confidence.

A regulatory sandbox led by BSEC, with Bangladesh Bank, could test blockchain-based e-IPO systems and AI surveillance. Capacity building is vital—training regulators, auditors, and intermediaries to oversee data-driven systems. Collaboration among exchanges, the depository, banks, and technology providers will be essential.

Implementation should begin with targeted pilots: blockchain-enabled IPOs and AI surveillance in the secondary market, before scaling. This gradual approach limits disruption while signaling decisive reform.

Bangladesh is well-positioned to leapfrog. High mobile penetration, a young tech-savvy population, and strong policy backing under the Smart Bangladesh Master Plan provide a solid foundation. While advanced economies refined systems over decades, late adopters can now deploy mature technologies quickly.

The cost of inaction is clear: repeated scandals will cap growth, deter foreign investment, and push savings into informal channels. The benefits of action are equally clear: a transparent market that channels savings into productive investment, lowers risk premiums, and supports sustainable transformation.

Fraud is not inevitable—it is a governance problem that can be solved. By adopting blockchain and AI as core regulatory tools now, Bangladesh can protect investors, strengthen institutions, and become a regional leader in financial innovation. Decisive reform today will yield economic, social, and strategic dividends for decades.

The US military began a blockade of Iran's ports, angering Tehran and adding uncertainty around the crucial waterway, although hopes for dialogue to end the war provided some relief to ​oil markets, where benchmark prices fell below $100 on Tuesday (14 April).

After a breakdown of weekend talks in Islamabad between the two adversaries, a US official said there was continued engagement and ‌forward motion on trying to get to an agreement. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also said efforts were still underway to resolve the conflict.

US President Donald Trump said Iran had been in touch on Monday and wanted to make a deal but that he would not sanction any agreement allowing Tehran to have a nuclear weapon.

Since the United States and Israel began the war on 28 February, Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels except its own, saying passage ​would be permitted only under Iranian control and subject to a fee.

The fallout has been widespread, since nearly a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies flowed through the narrow ​waterway before the start of the conflict.

Trump has said Washington would block Iranian vessels and any ships that paid such tolls and that any Iranian "fast-attack" ships ⁠that went near the blockade would be eliminated. Tehran has threatened to hit naval ships going through the strait and to retaliate against its Gulf neighbours' ports.

Shipping data on LSEG showed Chinese-owned oil-and-chemicals tanker Rich ​Starry passed through the strait on Tuesday - the first since the US blockade began at 10am EDT (1400GMT) on Monday. The vessel, which departed Sharjah anchorage off the coast of Dubai on Monday heading for China, had ​earlier turned back minutes after approaching the strait.

The US's blockade has further clouded the outlook for global energy security and the supply of a vast array of goods that rely on petroleum, and has little, if any, international backing.

Nato allies including Britain and France said they would not be drawn into the conflict by taking part in the blockade, stressing instead the need to reopen the waterway.

Despite the breakdown of talks between the US and Iran on Sunday, Vice President JD Vance, who ​led the US delegation, told Fox News on Monday the US "made a lot of progress" by communicating to Tehran where the US "could make some accommodation" and where it would remain inflexible.

He said Trump was adamant ​that any enriched nuclear material must be removed from Iran and a mechanism must be established to verify that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons.

Tehran "moved in our direction, which is why I think we would say that we had ‌some good ⁠signs, but they didn't move far enough," Vance said, without disclosing details.

Ceasefire under strain

The ceasefire that halted six weeks of US-Israeli airstrikes and retaliatory fire from Iran across the Gulf looked in jeopardy, with only a week left to run.

The US military's Central Command said the blockade would be "enforced impartially against vessels of all nations" entering or leaving Iranian ports in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman. It would not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations, it said in a note to seafarers seen by Reuters.

An Iranian military spokesperson called any US restrictions on international shipping "piracy," warning that if Iranian ports were threatened, ​no port in the Gulf or Gulf of ​Oman would be secure. Any military vessels approaching ⁠the strait would violate the ceasefire, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said.

Trump said Iran's navy had been "completely obliterated" during the war, adding that only a small number of "fast-attack ships" remained.

"Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against ​the drug dealers on boats at Sea. It is quick and brutal," Trump said on social media.

He was apparently referring to the US strikes carried ​out against suspected drug boats ⁠in the Caribbean and Pacific. The strikes, which began in September, killed more than 160 people. The US military has not provided evidence that the vessels were ferrying drugs.

Lebanon faces attacks

With the war unpopular at home and rising energy prices causing political blowback, Trump paused the US-Israeli bombing campaign last week after threatening to destroy Iran's "whole civilisation" unless it reopened the strait.

In a letter to the United Nations, Iran's UN delegation on Monday asked for reparations from ⁠Saudi Arabia, ​the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan, alleging they have allowed their territory to be used in the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Israel has ​continued to bombard Lebanon and on Monday troops launched an attack it said was intended to seize a key south Lebanon town from Iran-backed Hezbollah. The Israeli military said on Tuesday that an Israeli soldier was killed and three reservists were wounded during combat in southern Lebanon.

Israel ​and the US have said the campaign against Hezbollah was not part of the ceasefire, while Iran has insisted it is.

With Islamic banking now commanding 30% of Bangladesh's market, the shift from interest-based to asset-backed models is accelerating. Bank Asia is at the forefront, boasting a 70% deposit-investment ratio and a portfolio where Musharakah-based financing – true risk-sharing – hits 50%.

In a recent conversation with The Business Standard, the Bank's AMD ANM Mahfuz discusses the sector's trajectory and evolving strategic priorities

What is your outlook for the Islamic banking sector in the near future?

Islamic banking in Bangladesh has experienced remarkable growth since its introduction in 1983.

The sector has built deep public trust by aligning financial services with ethical and religious values.

With rising demand for Shariah-compliant products, expansion in SME and retail segments, and supportive regulatory frameworks, the outlook is highly promising.

In my view, Islamic banking will continue to increase its market share and play a transformative role in building a more inclusive, ethical and value-driven financial system.

What is driving the preference for Islamic banking over conventional banking?

Islamic banking is gaining popularity, particularly in Muslim-majority countries such as Bangladesh, primarily because it complies with Shariah principles, where interest (riba) is prohibited.

Beyond religious considerations, it is based on real economic activities involving tangible assets, unlike conventional banking, which is largely interest-based.

This asset-backed, risk-sharing approach enhances transparency and fairness. As a result, Islamic banking is increasingly regarded as a more ethical, stable and socially responsible alternative to traditional banking.

How has your bank's Islamic banking segment performed in recent years?

Bank Asia's Islamic banking segment has demonstrated strong and steady growth in recent years. The deposit–investment ratio has improved significantly, rising from around 50% to nearly 70%, indicating better fund utilisation and operational efficiency.

We remain fully committed to uncompromised Shariah compliance across all operations. A key strength of our portfolio is Musharakah-based financing, which accounts for approximately 50% of total investment, ensuring genuine risk-sharing and ethical financing.

In addition, we have built a strong presence in Sukuk investments and expanded our network from five to 15 Islamic banking windows. These achievements reflect our growing footprint and commitment to excellence in Islamic banking.

What strategies are you adopting to restore depositor confidence in Islamic banks?

Rebuilding depositor confidence in Islamic banking depends fundamentally on strict Shariah compliance and transparency.

Since its inception on 24 December 2008, Bank Asia Islamic Banking has upheld the principle of "Shuddhotai Apnar Munafa", emphasising purity and compliance in all operations.

Confidence is strengthened through a robust Shariah Supervisory Committee, regular Shariah audits and monitoring, skilled Islamic banking professionals, and transparent communication regarding fund utilisation and profit generation.

What opportunities exist to develop the Islamic bond market to support business capital-raising?

The Sukuk market offers significant opportunities for raising Shariah-compliant capital.

Globally, it has grown rapidly, particularly in countries such as Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. In Bangladesh, Sukuk issuance has already laid a strong foundation for further market expansion.

Sukuk can play a crucial role in financing infrastructure, supporting corporate growth, and attracting both individual and institutional investors, including non-resident Bangladeshis.

With appropriate regulatory support, Sukuk can become a key instrument for sustainable and ethical financing, aligning economic growth with social and environmental objectives.

What regulatory support is needed to diversify Islamic banking products?

To diversify Islamic banking products, strong regulatory support is essential.

This includes clear Shariah-compliant guidelines for products such as Sukuk, Takaful and structured investments, tax neutrality for Islamic financial contracts, standardised profit-sharing frameworks, and the development of secondary markets for Islamic instruments.

There is also a need for Shariah-compliant liquidity and risk management tools. Furthermore, promoting fintech integration, innovation and professional training will strengthen the overall ecosystem.

How can Islamic banking products be leveraged to attract NRBs?

Islamic banking products provide a strong platform to attract non-resident Bangladeshis (NRBs). Shariah-compliant options such as Mudarabah deposits, Sukuk investments and Islamic savings schemes offer halal and ethical returns.

Transparent profit-sharing, asset-backed investments and digital banking facilities enhance trust and accessibility, while remittance-linked Islamic accounts simplify fund transfers.

These initiatives can boost foreign currency inflows and strengthen diaspora engagement in Bangladesh's economic development.

How can Islamic banking contribute to sustainable growth and financial inclusion?

Profit-and-loss sharing models such as Mudarabah and Musharakah support SMEs, agriculture and infrastructure, driving job creation and economic development.

Financial inclusion is further enhanced through microfinance, micro-Takaful and Shariah-compliant savings products targeting underserved populations.

In addition, instruments such as green Sukuk finance environmentally sustainable projects.

By combining ethical finance with inclusivity, Islamic banking contributes to long-term economic stability and social equity.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has sought information from the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) to evaluate its request for extending the deadline for complying with new margin rules by three months.

In a letter sent to the regulator last week, DBA asked to extend the deadline for complying with the requirements set out in the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Margin) Rules 2025. In response, BSEC, in a letter issued on Sunday (April 12), sought information from the brokers’ association.

The rules came into force on November 1 last year, and are designed to strengthen risk management, protect investors and boost market stability. Three key provisions must be implemented within six months, with the current deadline set for April 30.

DBA’s letter said that brokerage houses need time for internal consultations, risk assessments, board approvals and integration of the new requirements into their operational systems.

The brokers’ association added that many firms are still finalising their policies and implementation plans due to a shortage of skilled personnel required under the rules, as well as limited technical support and client feedback.

Responding to the letter, BSEC asked for data so that the regulator can make a concrete decision regarding DBA’s proposal to extend the deadline.

BSEC asked how many brokers have already completed finalising the conservative policy of following the margin rules, and how many brokers have formed a risk management committee.

It sought information on companies that have not aligned with the risk-based capital adequacy rules of 2019, and also on brokers that have not applied for a time extension of provisioning of unrealised losses.

Additionally, the regulator asked for information on which brokerage houses hold non-marginable securities, and the cost value and market value of those securities.

BSEC gave the DBA three working days to submit the abovementioned information.

Banks will be borrowing and lending among themselves for the short-term, using a new transaction-based reference rate from Wednesday.

At a press conference at its headquarters in Dhaka yesterday, the Bangladesh Bank (BB) announced the shift away from the long-standing practice of relying on quoted rates under the Dhaka Interbank Offered Rate (DIBOR).

Instead of simply using the rates banks said they would charge, the new framework draws on actual transactions to determine borrowing costs.

The new system is meant for improving transparency and efficiency in the money market. It also brings Bangladesh into line with global benchmarks such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), published daily by the New York Fed and widely used in international markets.

Similarly, the BB will publish the new reference rates regularly on its website from Wednesday.

DIBOR, introduced in 2010, was based on rates banks reported for lending to one another. Over time, however, the system showed its weaknesses. Many commercial lenders did not provide data consistently, meaning the rate often failed to reflect real market conditions.

Under the new automated system, the BB will rely on actual interbank transactions and two new benchmark rates -- the Bangladesh Overnight Financing Rate (BOFR), and the Dhaka Overnight Money Market Rate (DOMMR).

BOFR is a secured, or risk-free, rate derived from interbank repo transactions. In a repo deal, one bank sells government securities to another with an agreement to buy them back later at a slightly higher price. The securities act as collateral, reducing the risk for the lender.

DOMMR, by contrast, is based on unsecured call money transactions. In this market, banks lend to one another for very short periods without providing collateral, relying instead on mutual trust and liquidity needs.

BOFR will be available for overnight and one-week tenors. DOMMR will cover overnight, one-week, one-month and three-month tenors.

According to the central bank, these rates will be calculated using a volume-weighted mean method so that larger transactions carry greater weight in the final figure.

This means if one bank borrows Tk 100 crore and another borrows Tk 5 crore, the larger deal will have a proportionately bigger influence on the average rate.

To prevent unusual deals from skewing the outcome, the BB will apply statistical techniques to filter out outliers.

For example, an exceptionally high lending rate on a single transaction would not be allowed to distort the benchmark. Similarly, if trading is thin on a particular day, the calculation will draw on data from recent working days to ensure stability.

The central bank expects the new framework to provide a dependable benchmark for pricing loans, bonds and floating rate instruments, and to support the development of new investment products.

Officials said the rates have been tested on a trial basis since March. They added that the system will be refined through regular monitoring and annual reviews.

A ship named 'MT Great Princess' arrived at Chattogram Port carrying 12,000 tonnes of jet fuel from Singapore this morning (14 April).

The cargo was supplied by Indian Oil Corporation Limited.

Two more ships, 'MT Term Damini' and 'MT Lucia Solis', are expected to arrive tonight with a total of around 68,000 tonnes of diesel.

As of 12 April, Bangladesh had an estimated stock of 22,000 tonnes of jet fuel, which can meet the demand for about two weeks.

The recent consignment has slightly increased the stock. Jet fuel consumption has been relatively low, with 21,000 tonnes sold in the first 12 days of the month, averaging 1,758 tonnes per day, slightly higher than last year.

Diesel consumption is significant in Bangladesh, accounting for about 63% of total energy consumption. The arrival of the two diesel-carrying ships tonight will further contribute to the country's energy supply.

The demand for diesel is high across various sectors such as transport, agriculture, industry, and power. In April, the total demand is around four lakh tonnes according to BPC.

To meet this demand, a detailed import plan has been implemented throughout the month.

At the beginning of April, two ships delivered a total of 61,000 tonnes of diesel on 12 April. Despite this, the demand pressure has not completely eased. Between 1 and 12 April, 133,000 tonnes of diesel were sold at an average daily rate of 11,138 tonnes.

As of 12 April, the available diesel stock was approximately 119,000 tonnes, which could cover the demand for about 10 days.

With the addition of two new shipments, the stock may last a few more days, but the long-term relief depends on continuous imports.

Currently, over 11,000 tonnes of diesel are being sold daily in the country.

BPC Chairman Md Rezanur Rahman told journalists that efforts are being made to source fuel from alternative suppliers to prevent any major crisis this month.

He mentioned that several ships have already arrived, and more are expected to come to ensure an adequate fuel supply.

Bangladesh is scrambling to secure urea imports after an international tender floated last month failed to attract any bidders, with the Aman paddy, the country’s second-largest rice crop, due for planting in June.

Authorities met Russian representatives yesterday to explore a government-to-government deal. At the same time, Dhaka is approaching nearby producers such as Brunei, as well as more distant and less conventional suppliers, including Latvia and Ukraine.

The government has also asked Saudi Arabia, a regular supplier, to consider alternative shipping routes.

Since the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz -- a key artery for global fertiliser trade -- remains closed. It disrupts flows, accounting for roughly 30 percent of global fertiliser shipments.

Requesting anonymity, a senior official at the state-run Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC), said they are currently in discussions with Russia, Latvia, Brunei, and Ukraine to secure imports.

“We are looking to get the fertiliser from these countries as they can ship using routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.

After a meeting with Russian representatives yesterday, he said Moscow is expected to submit a formal proposal soon.

The urgency follows the shutdown of five of the country’s six urea factories because of gas supply concerns after the US-Israel war on Iran. The conflict has reverberated across the Middle East, a crucial hub for fertiliser exports and for natural gas used in domestic production.

Bangladesh needs more than 26 lakh tonnes of urea each year. About three-quarters of demand is met through imports, as local plants often operate below capacity when gas is diverted to other sectors.

Current stocks stand at around 300,000 tonnes, enough to meet demand until June. BCIC previously said it was working to build reserves to cover requirements in the second half of the year.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are Bangladesh’s main suppliers, providing nearly 10 lakh tonnes annually. Since the war broke out, major producers in Qatar and Saudi Arabia declared force majeure and temporarily halted production.

In response to the US-Israel attack, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has compounded supply disruptions, pushing up the cost of fertiliser and the natural gas used to produce it.

According to the World Bank’s latest commodity price data, urea prices have jumped by more than 50 percent compared with levels before the war began on February 28. The average price rose to $725.6 a tonne in March from $472 earlier.

Prices of other fertilisers, including diammonium phosphate (DAP) and triple superphosphate (TSP), have also surged.

In March, as prices climbed and the planting season drew closer, BCIC floated a tender to import 200,000 tonnes of urea. As it failed to attract any offers, a second tender is now underway with the closing deadline on Thursday this week.

Contacted, BCIC Chairman Md Fazlur Rahman said Saudi Arabia has agreed to supply 40,000 tonnes, but the shipment has yet to arrive because of the disruption in Hormuz.

“So, we have requested them to see whether the fertiliser could be shipped via alternative ports that would avoid the Strait of Hormuz and ensure delivery to Bangladesh,” he said.

Rahman said prices rose to $785-$786 a tonne last week and have climbed above $800 this week.

He said that higher prices would swell the subsidy bill, as the government provides urea and other key fertilisers such as DAP and TSP to farmers to ensure food production.

The government has set aside Tk 17,000 crore for fertiliser subsidies in the current fiscal year. Officials expect that figure to exceed Tk 30,000 crore next year if prices remain elevated.

Rahman said efforts are underway to restart factories closed because of gas shortages. “At present, the situation is quite complex and uncertain. We are making every possible effort to overcome this crisis.”

A blog published last week by the International Food Policy Research Institute said that rice production in countries, including Bangladesh, could suffer if fertiliser supplies remain disrupted.

“Rice is fertiliser-intensive and concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, regions heavily dependent on Gulf urea imports. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and much of Southeast Asia source a significant share of their nitrogen fertiliser from Gulf producers,” the authors wrote.

“If higher fertiliser costs persist into the second half of 2026 and coincide with an El Niño event, rice-producing regions could face both rising input costs and less favourable growing conditions at the same time,” it mentioned.

The newly elected BNP government is preparing a large expansionary budget in its first fiscal plan, aimed at meeting public expectations, accelerating development activities to create jobs, and restoring the economy to a higher growth trajectory through increased investment.

For the fiscal 2026-27, the government is planning to spend Tk9.30 lakh crore – up by 25% from the current fiscal year's budget, while the finance ministry is expected to set a revenue collection target of Tk6.95 lakh crore, according to budget documents drafted by the finance ministry.

If approved, the revenue agency will have to chase a target which is higher by Tk1,00,000 crore than that of the current year, a level economists consider beyond its existing capacity.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is facing a shortfall of nearly Tk72,000 crore against its target in the first eight months of the current year.

To mobilise additional revenue, the NBR may have to reduce tax exemptions across multiple sectors, raise value-added tax rates, and shift tariffs towards more market-based structures.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said budget sizes typically grow by 12% to 15% annually, but the government is planning an increase of more than 25% to fulfil multiple commitments, making revenue mobilisation the central challenge.

"The main problem with the projected budget is the fiscal constraint and how to generate the required funds. How will so much money come? " she said.

She added that achieving such revenue targets with the current capacity of the NBR is unrealistic, and the government should instead set more achievable targets and focus on implementation.

Priorities in budget

The current fiscal year's budget stands at Tk7.90 lakh crore in the original estimate and Tk7.88 lakh crore in the revised version, with the NBR revenue target set at Tk5.03 lakh crore. By the end of February, revenue reached Tk2.50 lakh crore.

According to draft budget documents presented by the finance ministry at a meeting on Friday, the proposed budget prioritises welfare-based initiatives such as Family Card and Farmer's Card, in line with the election manifesto. It also focuses on containing inflation and maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Other key priorities include skills development to promote entrepreneurship and expand domestic and overseas employment, accelerating growth, strengthening agricultural support, expanding healthcare, restoring discipline in the financial sector, and removing investment barriers through deregulation.

The budget also places emphasis on developing the creative economy, including film, music, sports, and rural culture. The government has already initiated recruitment of sports and music teachers in primary schools and introduced incentive schemes for athletes.

Deficit financing

The next budget sets a revenue collection target of Tk6.04 lakh crore, equivalent to 9.21% of GDP. However, the tax-to-GDP ratio has fallen below 7% and continues a long-term decline.

To raise revenue, the government plans digitalisation of tax administration, expansion of the tax base, stronger institutional capacity, and higher non-NBR collections.

The finance ministry has also sharply raised the non-NBR tax target. Against Tk5,786 crore collected in the first eight months of the current fiscal year, the target for next year is Tk25,000 crore.

The fiscal deficit is projected at Tk2.35 lakh crore, or 3.4% of GDP. While the current fiscal year's original budget was smaller than the previous year, its deficit was also set at 3.4% of GDP, higher than the next budget's projection.

The deficit financing plan includes borrowing Tk1.19 lakh crore from banks and savings certificates, and Tk1.16 lakh crore from foreign sources.

In managing the deficit, the government is expected to shift towards lower-interest foreign loans instead of high-cost domestic borrowing. A significant share of annual budget expenditure on interest payments goes to domestic bank loans and savings instruments.

The finance ministry has projected Tk1.27 lakh crore for interest payments, of which Tk1.05 lakh crore is allocated for domestic debt interest and Tk22,500 crore for foreign debt interest.

Finance officials said, if energy prices rise, inflation does not ease, or liquidity recovery in the financial sector is delayed, the government may face higher interest payment pressures on domestic borrowing.

The IMF generally considers a deficit within 5% of GDP manageable. The government is, however, aiming for tighter fiscal discipline. Still, shortfalls in revenue could force additional borrowing.

The Annual Development Programme (ADP) allocation is set to rise by 50% from the current revised budget to Tk3 lakh crore, which officials expect will boost public investment and employment.

Finance officials said project public investment will reach 6.5% of GDP next fiscal year, arguing that each taka of government spending can attract multiple times more private investment. Private investment is therefore expected to rise to 24.9% of GDP.

Subsidy pressure to grow

Despite the large overall budget, subsidy allocations have not been fully adjusted for rising fuel import costs amid instability in the Middle East.

Allocations include Tk37,000 crore for power, Tk6,500 crore for LNG imports, Tk27,000 crore for fertiliser, and Tk9,600 crore for food assistance, taking total subsidies, incentives and cash support to Tk116,125 crore, up from Tk112,455 crore in the revised budget of the current fiscal year.

The finance minister told Parliament that the Iran conflict alone added Tk36,000 crore in subsidy pressure between March and June due to higher global fuel prices. Budget documents warn that prolonged instability could further increase funding needs for gas, electricity and fertiliser subsidies.

Additional funding pressures may arise from the BNP government's election pledges, including family and farmer cards. The government has begun paying Tk2,500 monthly to low-income households under these schemes, alongside Tk9,600 crore for broader social protection programmes.

In the current fiscal year, this allocation was Tk9,663 crore in the original budget and Tk10,214 crore in the revised budget.

In the next fiscal year, allocations for agricultural incentives, export cash support and jute exports remain unchanged, while remittance-linked incentives rise by Tk800 crore to Tk7,000 crore.

ADP allocations also show a sharp increase in health spending to Tk20,608 crore, about six times the revised level, lifting the sector from 15th to third position.

The largest development allocations go to the Local Government Division and Roads and Highways Division, followed by power, primary education, and secondary and higher education.