Stock markets fell on Friday as investors awaited news of an extension to the Iran-US ceasefire, while crude prices edged back down following the previous day's rally.

The losses follow a healthy, record-breaking week for equities, fuelled by hopes the Middle East war, which is heading into a seventh week, could be close to an end after Donald Trump said negotiators were close to a deal.

But worries abound that a shaky truce agreed earlier this month -- and which ends next week -- could fall apart and spark a fresh market rout.

The US president on Thursday struck an optimistic tone, telling reporters that "it's looking very good that we're going to make a deal with Iran, and it's going to be a good deal", adding that talks between Washington and Tehran could resume this weekend.

He also claimed Iran had "agreed to give us back the nuclear dust", using his name for the country's enriched uranium stockpile, and the deal would include "free oil" as well as the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

"We had to make sure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon," Trump said at the White House. "They've totally agreed to that. They've agreed to almost everything, so maybe if they can get to the table, there's a difference."

Iran has given no public indication that it would surrender its stockpile.

However, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth took a tough line on the situation earlier in the day, telling a Pentagon news conference: "If Iran chooses poorly, then they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy."

Meanwhile, some Gulf Arab and European leaders fear a long-term agreement could take six months to achieve and called for the truce to cover such a time period, Bloomberg reported.

They wanted the Strait of Hormuz -- through which about a fifth of global oil and LNG passes -- opened immediately and have warned in private of a global food crisis if that is not achieved by next month, the report said.

Fragile sentiment

Stocks fell across the region, with Tokyo, which hit a record high Thursday, among the biggest losers, with Seoul, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Wellington, Manila and Singapore also well down.

Taiwan's TAIEX dropped. On Thursday it hit a market capitalisation of US$4.14 trillion to top the UK's market capitalisation and become the world's seventh biggest, according to Bloomberg data.

London edged lower, Paris edged up, and Frankfurt was flat.

That came even after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq enjoyed record closes on Wall Street.

Analysts said traders were heading into the weekend to position for any surprise developments.

Oil prices dropped, a day after sharp gains, though both main contracts remain just below $100 a barrel.

There was some support from a 10-day ceasefire agreed between Israel and Lebanon that took effect at 2100 GMT Thursday.

Tel Aviv has sent troops into its northern neighbour since militant group Hezbollah launched rocket attacks in support of Iran last month.

Hezbollah has not officially said if it will recognise the ceasefire, but one of its lawmakers told AFP on Thursday that the group would respect it if Israeli attacks on its militants stopped.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon offered an opportunity for a "historic peace agreement", but insisted that the disarmament of militant group Hezbollah remained a precondition.

Trump said he will invite the countries' leaders to the White House.

"While investors remain buoyed by talks of an extension in the US-Iran ceasefire and an announced Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire, risk sentiment remains fragile as an immediate deal remains unlikely given that the countries remain far apart on key issues," wrote National Australia Bank's Skye Masters.

Fiona Cincotta of City Index said, "While risks remain -- particularly around disruptions to key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz -- markets are increasingly pricing in a scenario where oil prices have peaked unless tensions re-escalate."

But she warned, "the outlook remains fragile. A breakdown in diplomacy or renewed escalation could quickly reverse recent gains".

Key figures around 0715 GMT

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.8 percent at 58,475.90 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.2 percent at 26,087.89

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 4,051.43 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 10,584.26

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.0 percent at $93.73 a barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.6 percent at $98.76 a barrel

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1777 from $1.1784 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3507 from $1.3529

Dollar/yen: UP at 159.40 yen from 159.14 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 87.17 pence from 87.09 pence

New York - Dow Jones: UP 0.2 percent at 48,578.72 (close)

Bangladesh has surpassed all previous records for wheat imports with nearly three months of the financial year still remaining, driven by growing demand from bakeries, processed food manufacturers, and fish feed producers, combined with lower global prices.

Officials at the food ministry say another 10-15 lakh tonnes of wheat could be imported in the remaining period of the 2025-26 fiscal year.

According to ministry data, 5.83 lakh tonnes of wheat were imported by the government and 61.6 lakh tonnes by the private sector during the first nine months of the fiscal year, totalling the figure to 67.43 lakh tonnes. In FY25, total wheat imports stood at 62.35 lakh tonnes.

Speaking to The Business Standard, industry insiders say wheat demand has risen sharply because of changing food habits and greater use of wheat in bakery products, processed foods and fish feed. Lower prices in the international market have also encouraged companies to buy more than their immediate requirements.

Md Moniruzzaman, director of procurement at the Directorate General of Food, said changing food habits had increased wheat demand in recent years. "This year, wheat imports have reached the highest level in the country's history."

Bangladesh's annual wheat requirement is estimated at 70-80 lakh tonnes. In addition to imports, the country produces around 10-12 lakh tonnes of wheat domestically each year. The Department of Agricultural Extension forecasts local wheat production at 11.14 lakh tonnes in the current fiscal year, up from 10.41 lakh tonnes a year earlier.

The pace of imports has accelerated significantly in recent months. Bangladesh imported 35.35 lakh tonnes of wheat in the first six months of the fiscal year, while another 32.08 lakh tonnes arrived between January and 8 April alone.

Sector insiders say wheat prices surged to record levels in 2022 following the Russia-Ukraine war, but fell to nearly half by the middle of last year and have since remained relatively stable. The lower prices have prompted private companies to increase purchases.

Private sector representatives say demand for bakery products has grown steadily as consumer preferences shift. A decade ago, only a handful of industrial groups marketed processed food products, but now the number is rising continuously. Alongside small bakeries, major industrial groups are making substantial investments in the sector.

Demand has also increased for eateries, restaurants and street food stalls. Wheat is now widely used in the production of noodles, biscuits, bread, chanachur, snacks, dried foods and frozen foods for both the domestic and export markets.

Pran-RFL Group, one of the country's largest food producers, now requires around 2.5 lakh tonnes of wheat a year for its food processing operations, up from about 1.8 lakh tonnes two to three years ago.

Kamruzzaman Kamal, marketing director at Pran-RFL Group, said the processed food market is expanding rapidly and becoming more diversified.

"Demand for wheat-based food products is rising among consumers. These products are being sold not only in the domestic market but also exported abroad," he said.

Echoing Kamal, Taslim Shahriar, deputy general manager of Meghna Group of Industries, said wheat imports have increased because of greater dietary diversity and stronger consumer demand.

Similar views were shared by FH Ansarey, managing director of ACI Agrolink Ltd. Consumers are showing more interest in wheat-based foods than rice because of growing health awareness, he said.

Changing food habits

Although there is no official estimate of the size of the bakery market, industry representatives believe it is worth around Tk15,000 crore. There are around 7,000 manual and live bakeries across the country, employing nearly 10 lakh people. Almost 1,000 bakeries operate in the capital alone.

Corporate investment in the bakery industry has also increased markedly over the past few years, contributing to greater use of wheat.

Md Rezaul Haque Rezu, general secretary of the Bangladesh Bread, Biscuit and Confectionery Manufacturers Association and owner of Haque Bakery, said the industry had suffered first during the pandemic and later because of the Russia-Ukraine war, when many bakeries closed as most wheat imports came from Ukraine.

"Over the last one to one-and-a-half years, the bakery sector has recovered significantly," he said.

"The industry is becoming more diversified and demand is increasing. Many people are eating less rice because of diabetes, while younger consumers are more interested in bakery products. Overall wheat consumption in the country is rising."

Data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics show that changing food habits are contributing to the shift towards wheat. According to the Household Income and Expenditure Survey published in 2023, per capita daily consumption of wheat-based foods rose from 19.8 grams in 2016 to 22.9 grams in 2022, an increase of 15.65%.

Among urban consumers, wheat consumption increased by nearly 26% over the same period, while per capita rice consumption fell by 10.43%.

Rising rice prices and falling wheat prices have also encouraged consumers to switch. Three years ago, loose flour cost Tk8-9 more per kg than coarse rice. Now flour is around Tk15 cheaper.

According to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh, coarse rice currently sells for Tk55-60 per kg, while loose flour costs Tk40-45. In 2023, coarse rice was priced at Tk46-50 per kg, compared with Tk55-58 for flour.

Rising demand in feed industry

Demand for wheat has also increased in the feed industry. Wheat bran is used in animal feed, while wheat itself is widely used in fish feed.

Md Anwarul Haque, general secretary of the Feed Industries Association Bangladesh and managing director of Padma Feed and Chicks Ltd, said fish feed typically contains 18-22% wheat.

"Commercial fish farming is expanding, so demand for feed is also rising. Floating feed is widely used in fish farming, which has increased wheat use in this sector more than ever before," he said.

He added that wheat bran was also used extensively in livestock feed.

Different thoughts

However, not all importers believe the rise reflects a structural increase in demand. Md Shafiul Athar Taslim, director of TK Group, said there is a large market for wheat-based products but argued that imports this year have exceeded actual demand.

"It cannot be said that demand has increased significantly. More wheat has been imported this year than is required. In some years imports are lower, in others they are higher," he said.

The capital bourse returned to positive territory today as opportunistic investors stepped in for bargain hunting, seeking undervalued stocks after the previous session's decline.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) rose by 24 points to close at 5,254, signalling a cautious recovery amidst an evolving global geopolitical landscape.

Market insiders said while the market displayed resilience, participants remained intently focused on the ongoing developments regarding ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East conflict, which continues to influence broader investor sentiment.

The day's trading session was characterised by range-bound movement, with active participation on both the buying and selling sides. However, buying momentum ultimately prevailed, leading to a broad-based price appreciation across the majority of the traded scripts, they continued.

According to the daily market review by EBL Securities, the market's upward trajectory was tempered by cautious selling in certain large-cap stocks, which prevented a more significant rally.

The blue-chip DS30 index followed the benchmark's lead, inching up by 3 points to settle the day at 1,984.

Market participation showed signs of improvement as total turnover at the DSE surged by 5% to reach Tk836 crore, compared to the previous session.

The market breadth also remained strongly positive, with 239 issues advancing, 90 declining, and 64 remaining unchanged out of the 393 securities traded.

Key index pullers that contributed to the day's gains included Beximco Pharmaceuticals, BRAC Bank, Beacon Pharmaceuticals, Best Holdings, and Asiatic Laboratories.

On the sectoral front, the engineering sector continued to dominate market activity, accounting for 21.2% of the total turnover. This was followed by the pharmaceutical sector with an 11.0% share and the general insurance sector at 10.7%.

In terms of returns, the ceramic sector led the gainers with a 3.4% increase, followed by the travel and information technology sectors, which exhibited returns of 2.9% and 1.6%, respectively.

On the other hand, the banking sector saw a marginal correction of 0.3%, while the cement and food sectors also experienced slight declines.

Individual stock performance saw Coppertech Industries Limited topping the gainers' list with a 10% price hike, followed closely by Mir Akhter Hossain Ltd at 9.90%. Other notable gainers included Meghna Pet, National Polymer, and Prime Finance First Mutual Fund.

Conversely, SEML IBBL Shariah Fund emerged as the top loser, shedding 3.22% of its value, followed by Bank Asia and CAPM BDBL Mutual Fund.

In terms of liquidity, Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag emerged as the turnover leader, with City Bank, Acme Pesticides, Lovello Ice-cream, and Mir Akhter Hossain Ltd also seeing significant trading volume.

The bullish sentiment was mirrored at the Chittagong Stock Exchange where the key indices also posted gains. The CSCX inched up by 12 points to reach 9,038, while the CASPI rose by 23 points to close at 14,756.

However, unlike the premier bourse, the port city exchange witnessed a significant 41% drop in turnover, which stood at Tk24 crore.

Eastern Bank PLC (EBL) has reached a significant milestone in its financial journey, posting a record standalone profit after tax of Tk901 crore for the year 2025.

This achievement represents a robust 20% year-on-year growth, underscoring the bank's consistent earnings momentum and a resilient business model that has successfully navigated an increasingly challenging operating environment, according to a press release.

The bank's board of directors, in a meeting held today (15 April), approved the annual audited financial statements and recommended a generous payout for its shareholders.

The board proposed a 25% cash dividend and a 3% stock dividend for the year ending December 2025, a shift from the previous year's distribution of 17.5% cash and 17.5% stock.

On a consolidated basis, which includes the performance of its subsidiaries, the bank's net profit after tax reached Tk834 crore, marking an even more impressive growth of 26% compared to the previous year.

To finalise these recommendations and review the year's performance, the bank has scheduled its Annual General Meeting (AGM) for 11 June, with 6 May set as the record date for determining shareholder eligibility.

The record-breaking profitability is the culmination of a half-decade of steady growth; EBL's consolidated profit has climbed consistently from Tk480 crore in 2021 to the current Tk834 crore, reflecting a clear trajectory of sustainable value creation.

The bank's strong bottom line was driven by prudent balance sheet management and disciplined risk practices, said the bank in its statement.

Throughout 2025, EBL continued to deliver robust growth across all its key financial indicators. Total deposits rose by 21.6% to reach Tk55,645 crore, while loans and advances increased by 16.1% to settle at Tk47,704 crore by the end of the year.

Perhaps the most striking growth was observed in the bank's investment portfolio, which recorded a significant surge of 47.8%, reaching Tk21,147 crore. This surge highlights the bank's strategic move to optimise its asset allocation in a fluctuating market.

Asset quality remains the strongest pillar of EBL's operational success. While the broader banking industry in Bangladesh has struggled with high levels of defaulted loans – averaging around 30.60% – EBL has managed to bring its non-performing loan (NPL) ratio down to just 2.24%. This figure reflects a level of credit discipline and risk management that is rare in the local market, according to the press release.

Furthermore, the bank maintained full compliance with all regulatory requirements, including BASEL III liquidity standards, ensuring it remained well-capitalised and resilient against potential economic shocks.

This financial stability is reflected in the bank's solo earnings per share (EPS), which rose to Tk5.65 from a restated Tk4.70 in 2024, and its solo net asset value (NAV) per share, which increased to Tk31.86 from Tk27.16.

The bank's profitability indicators also showed sustained strength, with the return on equity (ROE) improving to 19.13% from 18.57% in the previous year. Efficiency remained a priority, as evidenced by a cost-to-income ratio of 40.36%, which is among the lowest in the industry.

To further support future growth and institutional resilience, the bank enhanced its capital base, with the solo capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) increasing to 15.49% from 15.11% in the prior year.

As EBL heads into 2026, its record performance reaffirms its position as a market leader, well-equipped to advance its strategic priorities while maintaining a focus on sustainable growth and long-term value for its stakeholders, read the press release.

The Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (Bepza) wants to establish two new export processing zones in Rangpur and Sirajganj to increase industrialisation in the north and encourage the use of solar energy, officials announced yesterday as they celebrated the organisation's 46th anniversary.

Since its inception under the Prime Minister's Office, the organisation has made a substantial contribution to the nation's economic development, and analysts have noted its ongoing influence on social and economic advancement.

Bepza Executive Chairman Major General Mohammad Moazzem Hossain said, "Currently, besides eight operational EPZs and two economic zones, new EPZs are being implemented in Jashore and Patuakhali, and EPZs in Rangpur and Sirajganj are in the planning stage. Once implemented, the geographical spread of the country's industrialisation will increase further."

Sources said 450 acres of land under Rangpur Sugar Mill in the Sahebganj area of Gobindaganj have been already handed over to Bepza for EPZ. It is anticipated that the establishment of an EPZ will provide jobs for more than a lakh people.

The Bepza Act was passed in 1980, and the organisation formally began operations on 15 April 1981 through a gazette notification, marking a new phase of planned industrialisation.

Beyond readymade garments, EPZs now produce car parts, electronics, camera lenses, wigs, shoes and bicycles. Only 32% of factories produce garments, while 68% represent diversified industries.

ASM Anwar Parvez, executive director (public relations), told TBS, "By attracting domestic and foreign investment, increasing exports through diversification of export products, and creating employment, the zones under Bepza's management are making unique contributions to the country's industrial sector.

"The total area of the eight EPZs and Bepza Economic Zone is only 3,550.33 acres or 14.37 sq-km, which is less than 0.001% of the country's total area. From this small land, Bepza contributes about 15-20% of total exports every year. In the fiscal 2024-25, the contribution was 17.03%."

He added, "In the last 45 years, Bepza has attracted $7.29 billion in investment and exported goods worth over $125 billion. Currently, around 5.5 lakh people are employed, a large portion of whom are women. This employment drives economic growth and supports social change and women's empowerment."

Following the success of eight EPZs, Bepza began establishing the Bepza Economic Zone in 2018 at Mirsharai in Chattogram, where exports have already started. The zone has drawn strong interest from investors and become a key industrial hub.

Eight companies are in production there, five are in trial production, and 34 are under implementation. Bepza has also started developing EPZs in Jashore and Patuakhali, with plot allocation expected within this year.

At an event marking "Bepza Day 2026" yesterday, Moazzem Hossain said, "Bepza has been making important contributions to the country's economic development for the last 45 years. This contribution is not limited to attracting investment and exports, but has also brought marginal communities into the mainstream through employment creation and made them self-reliant."

"Besides, Bepza is playing a pioneering role in worker welfare by establishing modern hospitals and schools in Bepza zones," he added.

The government has begun drafting a five-year strategic framework that targets economic growth of 6.2% in the 2026-27 fiscal year, up from a projected 5% in FY26, as it seeks to stabilise the economy and shift towards investment-led growth.

The proposed framework, presented at the first meeting of an advisory committee chaired by former planning adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud, sets out a gradual rise in growth over the following years, with targets of 7.1% in FY28, 7.5% in FY29 and 8% in FY30.

The plan also aims to increase total investment to 36.7% of gross domestic product by FY30, while reducing inflation to 5% by the period.

A projection presented at the first meeting of an advisory committee chaired by former planning adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud forecast a gradual depreciation of the taka against the US dollar over the current fiscal year and the following four years.

According to the General Economics Division, the exchange rate could rise to Tk126.3 per dollar in the current 2025-26 fiscal year, followed by Tk131 in FY27, Tk134.9 in FY28, Tk138 in FY29 and Tk140 in FY30.

The government plans to introduce a 180-day action plan covering exchange rate rationalisation, stabilisation of energy supply and fast-track reforms to business licensing.

A one-year programme will include restructuring of the financial sector, creation of an integrated social protection platform and expansion of financing for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Over the five-year period, the government intends to pursue industrial diversification, universal social protection and regional economic transformation.

Speaking yesterday (15 April), Prime Minister's Adviser on Finance and Planning Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said the initial measures under the plan would be implemented up to FY30 and would focus on economic recovery and stability.

"The rehabilitation process is also expected to be completed within the next year," he said.

Documents presented at the meeting showed that the framework seeks to raise capital productivity, create nearly one crore jobs across different sectors and increase revenue collection to 10% of GDP.

The first five-year plan of the BNP government will include proposals to develop Chattogram as the country's commercial capital, establish a pension fund for the private sector, introduce unemployment benefits and provide interest-free loans to small enterprises and cottage industries.

The plan also proposes waiving agricultural loans of up to Tk10,000 taken from non-governmental organisations.

The government has set a longer-term target of building a $1 trillion economy by 2034 and increasing foreign investment to 2.5% of GDP.

The framework identifies information and communication technology, the blue economy and renewable energy as the main drivers of future growth.

It aims to ensure that at least 20% of total electricity generation comes from renewable sources by FY30.

The plan also includes a target of creating around one crore jobs and recruiting five lakh people into government service through merit-based appointments.

In the social sector, the government plans to introduce a "Family Card" programme for around four crore vulnerable households.

It also intends to raise public spending on health and education gradually to 5% of GDP.

The proposed framework includes a number of governance reforms, including a 10-year limit on the tenure of a prime minister, the introduction of a bicameral parliament with an upper chamber of 100 members and the restoration of a neutral caretaker government system.

The plan targets an increase in nominal GDP to $742.57 billion by FY30 from $495.17 billion at present, as part of the government's election pledge to build a $1 trillion economy by 2034.

After the meeting, Titumir said the new framework would move away from what he described as earlier "detached and number-focused" plans and would instead emphasise practical strategies aligned with current economic conditions and future challenges.

He said accountability and a clear implementation roadmap would be among the defining features of the new strategy.

State Minister for Planning Zonayed Saki said the country is facing a fragile economic situation and that the government had inherited a weak macroeconomic structure. "The goal is to move from recovery to long-term prosperity."

He added that there had been shortcomings in the implementation of earlier development plans and that the government had already begun assessing the current situation, reviewing past outcomes and reassessing ongoing projects.

GED member Monjur Ahmed said the government had initially considered adopting a two-year recovery programme but later expanded the initiative into a comprehensive five-year strategy after the formation of the elected government.

He said a draft would be prepared within two months, followed by consultations with stakeholders.

The final document is expected to be completed within the following two to three months before the implementation phase begins.

After a gap of nearly two months, the Bangladesh Bank has purchased dollars from commercial banks through an auction.

The central bank today (15 April) bought $70 million from commercial banks at a rate of Tk122.75, a senior official confirmed.

Earlier this week, the central bank issued a verbal instruction to banks to purchase dollars from remittance houses at a maximum rate of Tk122.90.

Regarding this, a senior central bank official told The Business Standard, "The remittance rate is Tk122.90, while dollars were purchased from commercial banks via auction at Tk122.75.

"This indicates that the Bangladesh Bank intends to reduce the dollar rate slightly further. Essentially, the central bank signaled to the market that the dollar rate should hover around Tk122.75."

Commenting on the matter, a senior official of a private bank told TBS, "There are sufficient dollars in the market. The central bank purchased dollars at this price to ensure the rate does not rise further, as inflation remains a major challenge for them.

"High inflation has persisted in the country for a long time, and controlling it is the central bank's primary objective. Therefore, the central bank believes that by bringing down the dollar rate, it will be able to reduce inflation. This will also somewhat lower costs for importers."

Another senior official from a private bank said, "The price of the dollar began to rise following the start of the Iran war. The Bangladesh Bank has received information that several banks purchased dollars at higher prices because of this. It is expected that the dollar rate will decrease again in the coming days."

The Energy Division today (15 April) assured that there is no risk of a fuel crisis in Bangladesh, even as state-owned Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL) continues to operate at reduced capacity due to disruptions in crude oil shipments.

At a press conference at the Secretariat, Energy Division spokesperson Monir Hossain Chowdhury said a proactive strategy to ramp up imports of refined petroleum products has successfully cushioned the domestic supply chain, ensuring uninterrupted fuel availability across the country.

"As I mentioned earlier, the current stock of octane and petrol is sufficient to meet demand for at least the next two months. I can assure that we have adequate reserves," he said.

He acknowledged that the ERL is currently running on a "low feed" due to a shortage of crude oil, but stressed that this would not affect overall supply.

"We have a dual strategy in place. While we work to secure crude supplies, we have simultaneously increased the import of finished petroleum products to meet 100% of the country's demand. The supply chain is stable and uninterrupted."

The disruption follows delays in crude shipments linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly affecting key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz since late February.

An Eastern Refinery official earlier said refinery operations were temporarily halted due to the shortage of crude, following the Iran war.

According to the Energy Division, around 300,000 tonnes of crude imports were delayed in March and April. A vessel carrying 100,000 tonnes of Arabian Light crude from Saudi Arabia remains stranded at Ras Tanura port due to security concerns, while another shipment from the UAE has been postponed.

However, the Energy Division outlined several proactive measures to mitigate the impact.

"A fresh shipment of 100,000 tonnes of Arabian Light crude left for Bangladesh via an alternative route on 20 April and is expected to arrive at Chattogram port between 2 and 3 May," said Monir Hossain Chowdhury.

Additionally, the government has requested a further 100,000 tonnes of crude from Saudi Arabia for May and approved emergency procurement of another 100,000 tonnes through direct purchase to strengthen reserves.

Eastern Refinery, the country's only refinery, typically processes around 1.5 million tonnes of crude annually from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, accounting for roughly 20% of Bangladesh's fuel demand. The remaining 80% is met through imports of refined petroleum products.

According to the energy division data, Eastern Refinery supplied about 15% of the country's diesel and nearly 12% of its petrol demand in the last fiscal year, alongside by-products like furnace oil, kerosene, and bitumen.

Despite a broader market downturn amid the Middle East conflict, several fundamentally weak and loss-making stocks – mostly from the non-bank financial institution (NBFI) sector – emerged as the top gainers on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) in March.

According to monthly DSE data, five of the top 10 gainers were NBFIs, led by International Leasing and Financial Services, which surged 100% to close at Tk3.20 per share.

Premier Leasing and Finance rose 83.33% to Tk3.30, while People's Leasing and Financial Services and Fareast Finance each gained 76.47% to Tk3. FAS Finance and Investment also saw a 70.59% increase to Tk3.90.

The remaining gainers included textile firms Hamid Fabrics and Familytex (BD), IFIC Bank First Mutual Fund, engineering firm Atlas Bangladesh, and Pacific Denims, reflecting a mix of low-cap and speculative stocks.

In total, 390 stocks were traded during the month, of which 173 advanced, 183 declined, and 34 remained unchanged, indicating a generally weak market trend.

Sector-wise, manufacturing stocks – including pharmaceuticals, textiles, engineering, cement, and food – accounted for the largest share of turnover at 46.86%, or Tk4,785 crore out of Tk10,211 crore. The financial sector, comprising banks, NBFIs, and insurance, contributed 29.97%, while the services and miscellaneous sector made up 23.09%.

Market insiders say the sharp rise in these stocks follows a prolonged slump, with many NBFIs previously hitting rock-bottom prices amid restructuring and liquidation concerns. Such rallies are often driven by speculative trading rather than strong fundamentals.

A similar trend was observed in February, when several struggling NBFIs posted sharp price increases after steep declines, highlighting continued volatility in the segment.

The government has drafted a five-year strategic framework proposing to designate ICT as a special priority sector and send 20 lakh workers abroad annually.

The draft framework has been made in line with the government’s aim of achieving a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, according to a presentation by the General Economics Division (GED) of the Bangladesh Planning Commission at an advisory council meeting yesterday.

It projects real GDP growth reaching 8 percent by fiscal year 2029-30 (FY30), nominal GDP at $749 billion, inflation falling to 5 percent, and gross investment rising to 37.6 percent of GDP.

The outline will go through further consultations with relevant stakeholders before being finalised.

ICT AND JOBS

As per the draft, within the ICT sector alone, the government is targeting 10 lakh direct and indirect jobs.

Of the 10 lakh ICT jobs, 2 lakh are targeted in five areas -- cybersecurity, business process outsourcing (BPO), artificial intelligence (AI) and data, semiconductors, and Industry 4.0. The remaining 8 lakh are to be created indirectly through freelancing.

A national initiative will strengthen software, hardware, and BPO industries, backed by a commitment to universal high-speed internet, the GED said.

The draft also states plans to introduce a national e-wallet, including PayPal access, for freelancers and tech professionals.

Beyond ICT, the government aims to send 20 lakh people abroad annually through short-term language and skills training.

More than 5 lakh vacant government posts are to be filled through a transparent recruitment process.

EXPORT AND ENERGY

As per the draft plan, the garment sector will see stronger “Made in Bangladesh” branding through new product innovation.

The draft aims to broaden the export base by prioritising pharmaceuticals, leather, footwear, and agriculture and fisheries-based products.

Strategic free trade agreements at bilateral, multilateral, and minilateral levels are planned with key economic blocs across East and Far East Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.

On the energy front, the draft proposes ensuring supply of at least 20 percent of electricity from renewable sources -- solar, wind, hydropower, and waste-to-energy -- by 2030.

The power generation capacity is set at 35,000 megawatts, with transmission lines to be expanded to 25,000 circuit kilometres.

INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS

The outlined framework aims to increase foreign direct investment (FDI) from 0.45 percent to 2.5 percent of GDP within the next five years.

It proposes dedicated liaison officers and a formal complaint resolution system to build investor confidence, alongside a commitment to avoid sudden policy changes in tariffs, taxes, and export incentives.

To improve the business environment, it has set a target to complete digitalisation of approval processes to eliminate red tape and reduce physical contact in business transactions.

Company registrations are to be completed within 48 hours, and work permits within seven days.

A Bangladesh International Commercial Court will be established for fast-tracking commercial dispute resolution, and a Deposit Protection Ordinance is planned to ensure repayment from distressed banks as quickly as possible.

Besides, the tax-to-GDP ratio is targeted at 15 percent by 2035, to be achieved through expanded economic activity rather than a higher tax burden.

BLUE, CREATIVE ECONOMIES

The blue economy -- covering oil and gas exploration, renewable energy, fish harvesting, and shipbuilding -- will be developed as a national priority within Bangladesh’s maritime area.

The proposed framework has also set a target for the government to raise the contribution of the creative economy -- spanning film, music, theatre, gaming, VFX, and content creation -- to 1.5 percent of GDP, and create 5 lakh new jobs by 2035.

TOURISM AND SMEs

A national tourism policy update has been proposed, alongside a programme to help each village produce and market its own traditional product through design support, order-based loans, and e-commerce connectivity.

The draft also recommends that government channels low-interest loans based on each district’s heritage and renowned products, support for cottage industries, links to global e-commerce platforms.

AKM Ansar Uddin, a former official of Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Limited (Bapex), placed his retirement savings of Tk 16 lakh with People’s Leasing and Financial Services Limited in the hope of earning a steady return.

He set aside the money for his three children, especially for the marriages of his two daughters. But when the deposit matured, the company did not return the principal, let alone any interest.

As his health deteriorated, the elderly depositor was unable to withdraw the funds for treatment. He died in November last year. Amid financial hardship, the family later arranged the daughters’ weddings without ceremony.

Speaking at a press conference at the Jatiya Press Club yesterday, his wife, Akhtari Begum, broke down in tears as she described their ordeal. Their youngest son, Anaf Uddin, sat beside her.

The event was organised by the Alliance of 6 NBFIs Depositors Recovery Committee, which represents depositors of six non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) now under liquidation. The institutions are FAS Finance, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, Aviva Finance, People’s Leasing and International Leasing.

Over the years, several non-bank institutions collapsed amid widespread mismanagement, weak governance and heavy exposure to non-performing loans. Poor regulatory oversight and delayed action by the Bangladesh Bank (BB) deepened the crisis and ultimately led to liquidation.

At the press conference, Akhtari Begum said she had struggled to arrange her daughters’ marriages with dignity. “We are now uncertain how to survive with my children and cannot even ask others for help. Now I feel completely lost.”

She said her husband expected to receive Tk 7 lakh, which he planned to use for medical treatment instead of taking loans, fearing he would leave his family in debt. Now, she said, she does not know how she will live the rest of her life.

Nashid Kamal, a professor and Nazrul exponent, coordinated the press conference, where other depositors recounted similar hardship after their savings became trapped in the six institutions.

She said some depositors, including Mustafa Zaman Abbasi, a musicologist, reportedly died without proper medical treatment because he could not access his money.

Another depositor said her family invested funds primarily meant for medical treatment and savings in Aviva Finance. Since 2024, they have been unable to withdraw their money or receive regular returns.

“Even urgent medical requests submitted to the company were ignored, leaving us uncertain about our future,” she said, urging collective action, including approaching the BB governor and the finance minister.

A representative of the Khaled Mansur Trust, a privately funded charitable organisation, said the trust invested donated assets in institutions such as People’s Leasing, International Leasing and FAS Finance.

“The returns were used for education, healthcare, and welfare activities for underprivileged communities. However, with the funds now lost, our humanitarian work has been severely disrupted,” the representative said.

The trust urged the government to recognise it as a charitable entity and ensure the return of its deposits, saying that without support, its work for orphans and disadvantaged children may collapse.

Speakers called on the authorities to take immediate steps to repay the depositors, saying many families are living in acute distress. They said about 2,000 families have been affected. Many have neither recovered their principal nor received interest.

At the beginning of the press conference, Nashid Kamal read out a written statement on behalf of the affected depositors. She demanded the return of their hard-earned savings.

“For nearly seven years, depositors of various non-bank financial institutions have been suffering severe financial hardship due to mismanagement, weak governance, and delayed regulatory actions,” she said.

She said that while reforms, deposit protection and recovery mechanisms have been introduced in the banking sector, similar effective measures have not been properly implemented in the NBFI sector.

“We firmly state that any recovery or deposit protection framework applied to banks must also be extended to NBFIs, with necessary adjustments while safeguarding depositors’ fundamental rights. A depositor is a depositor whether in a bank or an NBFI. Equal protection, fair compensation, and timely repayment must be ensured in both sectors.”

The forum demanded a clear, transparent and time-bound roadmap to return deposits within 36 months, immediate recovery efforts for troubled institutions, regulatory protection equivalent to that in the banking sector, full transparency and accountability in liquidation and recovery processes, and strict legal action against those involved in financial irregularities.

In the statement, she said, “We call upon the government, the central bank, and all relevant authorities to take urgent and effective steps to restore confidence in the financial sector and ensure justice for affected depositors.”

“Our demands are simple and fair,” she said, adding that they would remain united in lawful protest until depositors’ rightful money is fully returned.

In January this year, the central bank decided to liquidate six of the country’s 35 non-bank financial institutions because of poor financial health.

The current BB governor, Md Mostaqur Rahman, appointed by the BNP-led government, has said reforms will continue, including the liquidation of the six institutions.

Two leading entrepreneurs in Bangladesh's cement and steel sectors have initiated a significant wealth transfer to family members, as part of a structured push toward generational succession in their businesses.

Mohammed Jahangir Alam, chairman of Crown Cement and managing director of GPH Ispat, along with Alamgir Kabir, vice-chairman of Crown Cement and chairman of GPH Ispat, have announced plans to gift shares worth a combined Tk166.14 crore to their spouses and children.

According to disclosures filed with the Chittagong Stock Exchange, the transfers aim to facilitate a smooth transition of leadership to the second generation while deepening their involvement in the companies' ownership structures.

The valuation of the gift is based on the closing market prices of the respective companies as of today (15 April).

Jahangir Alam, also a director of Premier Cement, plans to transfer 1.40 crore shares of Crown Cement, 45 lakh shares of Premier Cement, and 3.50 crore shares of GPH Ispat to his wife Masuma Begum, daughter Sadman Syka Sefa, and son Salehin Musfique Sadaf.

Following the transfers, his stake in Crown Cement will fall from 12.47% to 3%, while his holdings in Premier Cement and GPH Ispat will decline to 3.15% and 11.17%, respectively.

At the same time, Alamgir Kabir intends to gift 46 lakh shares of Crown Cement to his wife Kamrun Nahar, son Raihanul Kabir, and daughters Raisa Kabir and Nusaibah Kabir. His personal stake in the cement manufacturer will decrease from 5.67% to 2.57% after the transfer.

All the recipients are currently registered as general shareholders of the companies.

The regulatory disclosures specify that the share transfers will be executed as gifts outside the stock exchange's trading system, subject to regulatory approval, with a target completion date of 30 April 2026.

Market observers say such large-scale intra-family transfers among major industrial groups are increasingly reflecting a shift toward formalised succession planning in Bangladesh's corporate sector. By transferring these assets, the founders are not only securing their legacy but also ensuring that the next generation has a vested interest and a formal role in the companies' capital structures.

While the individual holdings of the senior directors will decline, overall family ownership will remain within the sponsor-director category, ensuring continued control over Crown Cement, Premier Cement, and GPH Ispat.

President Donald Trump's administration plans to launch next Monday the system it will use for issuing refunds to American importers for $166 billion the companies paid in tariffs that ‌the U.S. Supreme Court struck down in February as unlawful.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection said in a court filing on Tuesday that it has completed the development of the initial phase of the refund system, known as CAPE. The system will consolidate refunds so importers will receive one electronic payment, with interest when applicable, rather than processing refunds on an entry-by-entry basis.

Agency official ⁠Brandon Lord made the declaration in the filing with the New York-based Court of International Trade. The agency disclosed the CAPE launch date in a separate announcement on Friday.

The Supreme Court ruled that Trump overstepped his authority in imposing sweeping global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 law meant for use in national emergencies.

Tuesday's filing said that as of April 9 some 56,497 importers had completed the process to receive electronic refunds for tariffs affected by the court's ruling, an amount totaling $127 billion.

The agency has said it plans to roll out the refund system in ‌phases.

Lord ⁠said in his declaration that the agency is considering options for processing refunds on a subset of entries that were subject to $2.9 billion in tariffs. Lord said these normally would require manual processing, which would dramatically increase the workload and divert personnel from the agency's trade operations and enforcement.

After the Supreme Court's decision, ⁠importers sued for refunds in the Court of International Trade, which is monitoring the development of the refund system.

More than 330,000 importers paid the tariffs at issue on 53 million shipments of imported goods, according to court ⁠documents.

Customs and Border Protection has said the CAPE system will initially process refunds on recently imported goods and straightforward entries.

Many smaller importers feared the cost of the refund process would outweigh the ⁠benefits of trying to get reimbursed, forcing some companies to explore creative financing options related to refunds.

Trump denounced the Supreme Court after its ruling and imposed a new temporary global tariff under a different law, though that also has been challenged in court.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman today sought a US$ 2 billion fund from development partners to meet Bangladesh’s immediate energy needs and safeguard economic stability amid the ongoing global energy crisis.

“The situation before us demands urgency, solidarity, and decisive action. Immediate support for the most vulnerable countries must be at the top of our collective agenda,” he said while addressing the Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) Plus Online Summit.

“We urge the international community to respond swiftly and positively to this call,” he added.

The prime minister said the energy crisis is a stark reminder of the shared vulnerability and interdependence of countries, regardless of size or strength.

He stressed that Asia requires a coordinated and forward-looking response to strengthen energy security, address immediate supply disruptions, and support the most vulnerable nations.

Tarique said the crisis has already disrupted Bangladesh’s economy. “In response, we have taken a range of short-term measures to contain the impact,” he said.

These measures include demand-side management through the rationing of government office and market hours; stabilising fuel supplies through emergency imports and diversified sourcing; and consumption controls, including fuel rationing and limits on retail sales to prevent hoarding and panic buying through initiatives such as the "Fuel App".

He warned that the scale and consequences of the crisis could exceed those of the 1970s oil shock, which triggered a decade of stalled development in the 1980s.

Since independence in 1971, he said, Bangladesh has worked relentlessly to drive economic growth, lift millions out of poverty, and improve living standards.

“Today, these hard-earned gains are in danger of being reversed,” he added.

Tarique Rahman said Bangladesh is not alone in facing this risk, nor can it overcome the challenge through national efforts alone.

“This moment calls for decisive and coordinated global action to contain the impact of the ongoing energy crisis, particularly to protect vulnerable countries, including the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), from severe economic and social consequences,” he said.

He also thanked Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who delivered the concluding remarks, for convening the timely summit.

Leaders from Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Timor-Leste, Japan, and other countries took part in the online meeting.

The prime minister delivered his speech from his Sangsad Bhaban office. Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman and Foreign Affairs Adviser M Humayun Kabir were also present.

Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday ​as investors assessed prospects for renewed US–Iran talks and the potential for supply to be released from the ‌Middle East, where exports remain constrained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures were up 43 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $95.22 a barrel at 0821 GMT, after falling 4.6 percent in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 17 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $91.11. The contract dropped 7.9 percent the ​session before.

The war has mostly shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for crude and refined product flows out ​of the Gulf to global buyers, particularly in Asia and Europe.

US President Donald Trump said talks with Tehran on ending the war could resume this week after ending over the weekend without any agreement.

But the US has also ​enacted a blockade of shipping leaving Iranian ports that its military said on Wednesday has completely halted trade going in and out of the ​country by sea.

Despite a two-week ceasefire, transit through the strait remains uncertain, with traffic at only a fraction of the 130-plus daily crossings that moved through the waterway before the war, sources said on Tuesday.

“The trajectory of oil prices will likely hinge less on battlefield developments and more on diplomatic momentum. Markets are ​increasingly reacting to headlines around negotiations rather than troop deployments,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

“Each signal of renewed ​dialogue has been met with price declines, suggesting that traders are systematically unwinding the ‘war premium’ embedded into crude earlier this month.”

Refiners are desperately seeking alternative ‌crude supply, ⁠pushing up the premiums they are willing to pay for oil from areas such as the US Gulf Coast and North Sea. A cargo of WTI Midland for delivery to Rotterdam traded at a record premium of $22.80 a barrel above benchmark European prices on Tuesday.

A US destroyer stopped two oil tankers from leaving Iran on Tuesday, a US official said.

“The Strait of Hormuz is not Trump’s alone to reopen,” said SEB analyst ​Ole Hvalbye. “Iran has its own calculus, ​and the regime may find ⁠it strategically useful to keep flows restricted even after any peace deal, whether to extract reparations, guarantee security, or simply to inflict political pain ahead of the November US midterm elections.”

The market stands ​to lose some access to further supply after two US administration officials told Reuters on Tuesday the ​US will not renew ⁠a 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea that expires this week, and quietly let a similar waiver on sanctions on Russian oil expire over the weekend.

Later in the day, markets will be watching for official US inventory data from the Energy Information Administration, due ⁠at 10:30 ​a.m. ET (1430 GMT).

US crude oil stockpiles were expected to have risen slightly last ​week, while distillate and gasoline inventories likely fell, a Reuters poll showed.

Market sources familiar with American Petroleum Institute figures said on Tuesday US crude oil inventories jumped for a third ​straight week.

Bangladesh is unlikely to get US$1.3 billion, due in two tranches, within this fiscal year from the $5.5-billion credit programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), finance officials say.

The uncertainty has been created as the IMF is showing less interest in sending a review team now since many of the conditions binding the loan package remained unmet now, they add.

"Unless the finance minister and his team, who are now in Washington to attend spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, can convince the IMF bosses to send a review mission now, the possibility to get the two installments of the loan is very bleak," a senior finance division official told the FE Wednesday.Investment Advisory Service

Sensing the IMF's stance regarding the loan disbursement, sources say, the finance division officials have suggested finance minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury seek an additional $2.0 billion as emergency assistance from the IMF and the World Bank to offset the deficit created due to the crisis in the Middle East.

Mr Chowdhury on April 13 had separate meetings with IMF Executive Director Urjit Patel and World Bank Vice-President for South Asia John Jutt where he reportedly secured commitment from them for additional financing under the IMF's existing lending recipe.

However, after the meeting, the minister did not say any word to waiting journalists as to whether the due tranches under the credit programme will be available in time or not.

According to the finance officials, a number of conditions under the original $4.7-billion loan programme, which was later extended to $5.5 billion, remained unfulfilled, which forced the IMF to take decision to delay the release.

The IMF this January, after conclusion of Article IV Consultation with Bangladesh, said: "Weak revenue mobilisation, banking-sector vulnerabilities, incomplete implementation of the new exchange-rate framework, and elevated inflation are weighing on macroeconomic stability and growth prospects."Financial Daily Subscription

The IMF board of directors also observed an uneven programme performance and emphasised that decisive and sustained policy actions and bold reforms were needed to restore macroeconomic and financial stability and support the country's long-term development goals.

"The performance criterion on government revenue collection was missed by a wide margin. The authorities have yet to adopt a high-level reform strategy for restoring banking-sector stability, as was agreed at the 3rd and 4th combined review," it said.

Also, the IMF said Bangladesh Bank would need to adjust its forex-intervention practices to meet conditionality on the exchange-rate arrangement. "While the primary deficit target was met, this was achieved through significant cuts in capital and social spending."

While the World Bank and Asian Development Bank had lowered Bangladesh’s GDP growth forecast due to the Persian Gulf crisis and domestic vulnerabilities, the International Monetary Fund has kept its earlier projection unchanged.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday projects Bangladesh’s GDP growth at 4.7 percent for FY2025-26, which was the same as its earlier projection from January.

However, IMF’s growth projection is set to dip further to 4.3 percent in the next fiscal.

The World Bank revised its projection down to 3.9 percent growth from 4.6, while the ADB revised its forecast down to 4 percent from its previous projection of 4.7 percent.

Former World Bank lead economist Zahid Hussain told The Daily Star that the IMF’s forecast “appears rather strange,” adding that “it is the same as projected in their Article IV report released in January 2026.”

The absence of any impact of the war in the current fiscal year is inconsistent with their own assumption that economies with vulnerabilities and limited buffers are likely to be hit hardest. Bangladesh is one such economy.

He also said individuals and firms in Bangladesh have been living with the growth and inflation impacts ever since the war started. There is no reason in fact or logic to believe Bangladesh will remain insulated from the impact of the war for four months.

Hussain noted that the IMF’s 4.3 percent growth projection for FY27 is more realistic if its reference scenario, in which the war shock fades by June, materialises.

The government, however, remains confident, insisting that GDP growth will reach 5 percent in 2026.

The ongoing Middle East conflict is severely disrupting production in the garment sector due to energy shortages, Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) President Mahmud Hasan Khan said yesterday.

He made the statement at a meeting with Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir at the minister’s office in Dhaka, where he led a BGMEA business delegation.

Khan said the sector is facing a crisis due to global economic instability, the impact of the Middle East conflict, and severe gas and electricity shortages in the country, according to a BGMEA statement after the meeting.

He also said rising raw material prices and higher production costs have further worsened the situation.

In such a difficult time, strong policy support from the government and a business-friendly environment are essential to stay competitive in the international market, he added.

Khan also spoke about the RMG Sustainability Council (RSC), saying it was formed mainly to address future industry challenges, including monitoring building, fire, and electrical safety standards.

However, he said that social compliance issues such as wages and trade unions are not within its core responsibility.

Khan added that expanding its role into these areas would create extra administrative and financial burdens on the industry, which is not desirable.

He also stressed that any decision in this regard must be made in line with stakeholders’ views and national laws, the statement read.

During the meeting, the BGMEA chief called for an amendment to the current import policy to simplify the import of raw materials on a free of cost (FOC) basis.

He also requested a revision of relevant clauses in the Import Policy Order to remove the requirement for bond licences when supplying goods from bonded exporters to non-bonded direct exporters.

BGMEA leaders urged the withdrawal of the existing 10 percent income tax deduction on cash incentives to boost garment exports.

They also called for normalising trade relations with India and removing barriers to yarn imports and product exports through land ports.

To further speed up garment exports, they proposed amending relevant sections of the Import Policy 2024-2027 and automating the process for determining CIP (Commercially Important Person) status for industry entrepreneurs.

The minister acknowledged the importance of the sector as the country’s leading foreign currency earner in the current global context.

He assured that the government would provide necessary policy support to address challenges and maintain Bangladesh’s competitiveness in the global market, the statement added.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has resumed purchasing US dollars from the market after one and a half months, driven by higher inflows than outflows amid strong remittance earnings.

Yesterday, the central bank bought $70 million from Islami Bank Bangladesh at a cut-off rate of Tk 122.75 per US dollar.

Earlier, on March 2, BB purchased $25 million from two commercial banks through multiple auction methods.

During the 2025-26 fiscal year, total US dollar purchases stood at $5.56 billion, according to BB data.

Remittance inflows reached an all-time high of $3.75 billion in March, as Bangladeshis working abroad sent increased amounts to their families ahead of Eid-ul-Fitr.

In addition, remittance inflows stood at $1.60 billion between April 1 and April 14 this year, up 25.2 percent year-on-year, data showed.

The banking regulator began purchasing dollars at the start of the current fiscal year as supply increased, supported by higher export earnings and remittance inflows.

However, between FY21 and FY25, Bangladesh Bank sold more than $25 billion from its foreign exchange reserves to meet import payments for fuel, fertiliser, and food.

Due to BB’s recent dollar purchases, gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $34.87 billion yesterday, up from $34.60 billion two days earlier.

Demand for crude oil will likely decline this year for the first time since the Covid pandemic slammed the global economy six years ago, weighed down by Mideast war disruptions, the IEA warned Tuesday.

Surging prices caused by the Strait of Hormuz’s closure and damage to production facilities will force countries and industries to curtail oil use, and “demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist”, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report.

It noted that its forecasts assume a “base case” of oil shipments resuming in May through Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively closed since the US and Israel began bombing Iran on February 28.

This would lead to a decline in demand of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter, “the sharpest since Covid-19 slashed fuel consumption”, the agency said.

Overall demand is forecast to have contracted by 800,000 bpd in March and is seen dropping by 2.3 million bpd in April.

Surging prices caused by the Strait of Hormuz’s closure and damage to production facilities will force countries and industries to curtail oil use
But a “protracted case” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed would lead to persistently high prices that crimp demand by an even higher average of five million bpd through the rest of this year.

“In this case, energy markets and economies around the world need to brace for significant disruptions in the months to come,” the agency warned.

Global oil use is expected to fall over 2026 as a whole as a result of the Hormuz closure and the destruction of energy infrastructure across the Gulf from retaliatory Iranian attacks.

The IEA now sees a demand drop of 80,000 bpd this year, compared with its previous forecast of growth of 730,000 bpd.

It called it “the largest disruption in history” to the market and cautioned that with “the prospects for a lasting negotiated settlement to the conflict still unclear”, the economic pain could be worse.

Already the supply cuts took more than 360 million barrels off the market in March, a figure expected to rise to 440 million barrels for April.

Oil supplies overall plunged to 97 million bpd in March, down by 10.1 million bpd as the Mideast fighting rocked the market.

Oil prices have nearly doubled since the Mideast war began and remain near $100 a barrel, with prices of refined products like petrol and jet fuel rising even higher.

Many governments have already imposed measures to conserve use, but if the fighting continues “energy markets and economies around the world need to brace for significant disruptions in the months to come”.

Countries are also tapping into crude stock reserves to soften the blow from lost Gulf exports, and inventories fell by 85 million barrels overall in March.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol has repeatedly said the agency stands ready to approve the release of more reserves if needed.

But some analysts say energy traders are increasingly betting that neither Iran nor the United States want the war to continue, and are banking on talks producing a ceasefire.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at the investing platform XTB, said that even though tensions are high, “the market is comfortable that this war has entered a new stage, one that will lead to the end of fighting and a pathway to reopening the waterway”.