Claim settlement in Bangladesh's life insurance sector improved significantly in the final quarter of 2025, yet many policyholders remain unpaid, deepening the sector's persistent crisis of confidence.

According to unaudited data from the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (Idra), total claims in the life insurance sector stood at Tk13,158 crore by the end of the October-December quarter.

Of this, companies managed to settle Tk8,755 crore, leaving Tk4,403 crore in unpaid claims. In percentage terms, the settlement rate rose to 67%, a sharp increase from just 35% in the previous quarter.

A similar trend is visible in terms of policy numbers. Out of a total of 28.43 lakh matured policies, claims for 16.58 lakh have been settled. However, around 11.85 lakh policyholders are still waiting for payments.

Industry insiders said increased regulatory pressure and closer monitoring by the authorities played a key role to the higher settlement rate in the final quarter. As companies approached the year-end, the need for licence renewal also pushed them to settle claims. Besides, higher business volumes during this period improved liquidity, enabling insurers to pay more claims.

Despite this progress, structural weaknesses in the sector remain evident. Stakeholders said that while a handful of well-performing companies are committed to timely claim settlements, many others continue to show little urgency. As a result, delays persist, leaving policyholders in uncertainty. In many cases, customers wait years, even after policy maturity, to receive their dues.

Insurance expert and UNDP consultant SM Zialul Haque explained that typically 40% to 45% of life insurance business is conducted in the final quarter, compared to 20% to 25% during other periods.

"This increases cash flow for companies, allowing them to settle more claims," he told TBS, pointing out that regulatory pressure related to licence renewal further compels companies to act.

He added that nearly one-third of insurers show a strong reluctance to settle claims. However, a segment of companies remains proactive, especially when they have sufficient funds. "The good companies always try to pay customers on time. But the reluctance of some players is affecting the entire sector."

Top insurers pay over 95%

Data shows that MetLife Bangladesh settled 98.3% of its claims during the period. Its Chief Executive Officer Ala Ahmad said, "The true value of insurance is proven at the moment a claim is made. In 2025, we are proud to have settled Tk2,853 crore in claims, the highest in the industry."

He added that MetLife operates through disciplined financial management and significant technology investments. "We have ensured the largest life fund and a digital process that delivers claim payments in just three to five days."

Pragati Life Insurance also set a positive example by settling 98.5% of its claims. Managing Director and CEO Md Jalalul Azim said that around seven to eight companies are consistently working to improve settlement rates. However, others are moving in the opposite direction, showing little commitment to paying customer claims, which is harming the sector as a whole.

Sheikh Rakibul Karim, Chief Executive Officer of Guardian Life Insurance, said, "Every settlement reflects our commitment to keeping our promises. By ensuring transparency and prompt support, we strive to stand beside our customers and their families when it matters most." The company settled 97.5% of its claims within the stipulated period.

Regulatory interventions

Idra spokesperson Saifunnahar Sumi told TBS that the recent improvements are the result of a series of regulatory interventions. The authority is working to maintain a non-corrupt and unbiased regulatory environment while implementing reforms. These include introducing a grading system for insurers, placing lower-ranked companies under special audits, and rewarding better-performing firms.

The regulator has also strengthened accountability through governance review meetings, where board chairmen and senior management are required to attend. In addition, an interview system has been introduced for the appointment and reappointment of CEOs and advisers to ensure compliance.

The Idra spokesperson said efforts were under way to introduce the proposed Insurers' Resolution Act, which would allow authorities to place non-performing companies under resolution if they fail to improve.

"Amendments to the Insurance Act are also being finalised, including provisions for strict penalties if claims are not settled within the stipulated time," Sumi said. "The regulator is regularly monitoring and following up on unresolved claims to ensure faster settlements."

Bangladesh Bank yesterday purchased $50 million from four commercial banks at a cut-off rate of Tk 122.75 per US dollar, as strong remittance earnings boosted inflows.

Remittance inflows reached an all-time high of $3.75 billion in March. Inflows stood at $1.60 billion between April 1 and April 14, up 25.2 percent year-on-year, Bangladesh Bank data shows.

The banking regulator on Wednesday resumed dollar purchases after one and a half months, buying $70 million from Islami Bank Bangladesh.

With the latest transaction, the central bank’s total dollar purchases for April rose to $120 million, officials said.

Cumulatively, the central bank has bought $5.61 billion from the market so far in the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26).

Bangladesh Bank began purchasing dollars at the start of the current fiscal year as supply increased, supported by higher export earnings and remittance inflows.

However, between FY21 and FY25, Bangladesh Bank sold more than $25 billion from its foreign exchange reserves to meet import payments for fuel, fertiliser, and food.

Officials of the central bank said that the country’s forex market is currently quite liquid due to high remittance inflows ahead of Eid-ul-Adha.

On the other hand, demand for imports, except for fuel, is set to increase, which is why the Bangladesh Bank is purchasing US dollars from the market, an official added.

Following the recent dollar purchases, gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $35.03 billion on Thursday, up from $34.87 billion a day earlier.

Industry insiders said that the central bank is planning to increase its foreign exchange reserves, as pressure on the forex market is likely to rise in the upcoming days due to higher global oil prices stemming from the Middle East crisis.

On Thursday, the interbank exchange rate of the US dollar stood at Tk 122.70 per dollar, down from Tk 122.75 just two days earlier, reflecting a liquid foreign exchange market.

The heads of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) yesterday underscored the importance of close cooperation to support stability and safeguard development progress amid heightened global uncertainty and mounting pressures on member economies.

Meeting on the sidelines of the World Bank Group–International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings, the heads noted that the impacts of current global developments, including the evolving situation in the Middle East, are being felt through higher energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and tighter financial conditions.

“MDBs are working more closely than ever to support our members and clients through a complex and evolving global environment,” said Masato Kanda, president of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and current chair of the MDB Heads Group, according to a press release.

The MDB Heads Group includes the African Development Bank, ADB, AIIB, European Investment Bank, and the World Bank Group, among others.

The institutions will combine financial strength and partnerships to help countries manage immediate pressures and build long-term resilience, he added.

Reaffirming a shared commitment to deep collaboration, the group focused on private sector development, job creation, and infrastructure.

To facilitate this, the heads agreed to establish a working group to mobilise private finance and expand financing capacity through originate-to-distribute approaches.

The leaders also recognised the importance of increasing credit risk transparency in emerging markets through the Global Emerging Markets (GEMs) consortium.

They pledged to scale up local currency financing and develop domestic financial markets to mitigate exchange rate risks.

For sector-specific resilience, the MDBs are strengthening collaboration on critical minerals to support responsible supply chains. They also launched Water Forward, a global initiative to advance investable water systems to drive food security and prosperity.

The heads agreed on a common Value for Money procurement framework to ensure the sustainability of financed projects.

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned Wednesday of difficult times ahead for the global economy if war in the Middle East is unresolved and oil prices stay high, adding that inflation risks could seep into food prices.

“We must brace for tough times ahead” if the conflict persists, she told reporters at a press briefing during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s spring meetings in Washington.

The gathering brings government and financial leaders to the US capital this week, with policymakers looking to limit economic fallout from the war.

US-Israeli strikes launched against Iran on February 28 sparked Tehran’s retaliation, virtually closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for oil and fertilizers.

Energy prices have since surged, squeezing countries -- especially vulnerable economies and those dependent on oil imports from the region.

“We are concerned about risks for inflation moving into food prices should the delivery of fertilizers at a reasonable price (not be) restarted soon,” Georgieva said.

But as countries move to limit price shocks on their citizens, Georgieva urged central banks to “wait and see” before adjusting interest rates if they can do so.

She said this was particularly the case where the public has a “well-anchored” expectation of inflation being kept under control.

“If we are to move faster out of the war, it may not be necessary to take action,” she said.

But she conceded that countries where central banks lack such credibility might need to send stronger signals.

For now, “we are still at a time when a faster resolution of hostilities is possible,” she said.

Noting that fallout is “highly asymmetric,” Georgieva urged IMF member countries to come forward to the Washington-based lender if they need financial assistance during the conflict.

Low-income countries spend around 36 percent of their consumption on food, while emerging markets spend about 20 percent, said the IMF’s director of strategy Christian Mumssen in press remarks.

Advanced economies spend about nine percent, he added.

The IMF estimates for now that near-term demand for new fund financing would be in the range of $20 billion to $50 billion.

“Currently, we have 39 programs, and prospective demand for new programs from at least a dozen countries, a number of them in sub-Saharan Africa,” Georgieva said of the fund’s financial aid.

“The sooner we act, the more we would protect the economy and the people,” she added.

She stressed the need to protect fiscal sustainability as countries move to help their populations, cautioning that “untargeted measures, export controls or broad-based tax cuts” could serve to “prolong the pain of high prices.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is holding continuous discussions with Bangladesh over the release of the remaining tranche of its ongoing loan programme, Krishna Srinivasan, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, has said.

"The [IMF] team is negotiating and is having continuous discussions with the [Bangladesh] authorities, and we will have an update down the road," he said at a press briefing in Washington, DC, on 16 April, replying to a queries including that over Bangladesh's due loan instalment.

Srinivasan said Bangladesh's revenue base remains weak by global standards, limiting the government's capacity to provide support at a time of rising economic pressure.

"People are hurting in Bangladesh, so it is even more important to use whatever resources you have to make it as targeted as possible," he said.

He added that improving revenue collection and addressing structural issues in the financial sector are critical for sustaining growth in both the short and long term.

Srinivasan also highlighted the impact of the global energy shock, noting that Bangladesh, as a major energy importer, remains vulnerable to price volatility in international markets.

"Like other countries in Asia, Bangladesh is also affected by the energy shock," he said. "We are working with the authorities in terms of policy support and programmes, and discussions are ongoing. We will have to wait and see how things pan out."

He said continued engagement between the IMF and Bangladesh will determine the outcome of the negotiations, as the country also explores options for additional external financing.

Under the $5.5 billion IMF programme, disbursements are typically made in June and December. However, the lender withheld the fifth tranche in December to engage with the newly elected government. At the time, then finance adviser Salehuddin Ahmed said $1.3 billion from two tranches could be released together in June.

Srinivasan visited Bangladesh in March and met Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury. After the meetings, the finance minister said the combined tranches were likely in June and that detailed talks would follow at the IMF Spring Meetings in April.

However, no decision has been made even after the meetings, according to a statement issued by the Bangladesh Press Wing. The finance minister also said several issues remain unresolved, with further discussions expected over the next 15 to 20 days.

The Bangladesh Bank has discouraged commercial banks from engaging in forward dollar bookings to prevent artificial supply shortages in the spot market that could drive up the greenback's price.

Speaking to The Business Standard, senior officials at the central bank said several banks sharply increased forward bookings after conflict escalated in the Middle East, prompting fears that the dollar could become more expensive in the coming months.

Forward foreign currency selling is a transaction in which a bank or another party commits to selling a specified amount of foreign currency at a pre-determined exchange rate on a future date. The mechanism is commonly used by businesses and financial institutions to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations.

Under existing Bangladesh Bank guidelines, authorised dealer banks may undertake forward sales only against the genuine needs of customers and must ensure that the contracts are intended to neutralise exchange rate risk.

Banks may buy forward from exporters, foreign currency account holders, exchange houses, and other counterparties, but are required to cover their own risk as soon as possible.

The forward price is determined by adding a premium to the current price.

According to central bank officials, banks have been verbally advised not to rely on dollars purchased from the spot market to meet forward contracts. Instead, they have been encouraged to undertake forward sales only against their own forward purchases.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said that a small number of banks had been increasing forward bookings aggressively.

"After the matter came to the attention of the Bangladesh Bank, the banks were told to avoid further forward booking because rising forward sales create pressure in the spot market, increasing the risk of a higher dollar rate," the official said.

"When banks cannot obtain enough dollars in the spot market to meet demand, the exchange rate rises. If banks continue to make excessive forward commitments, the dollar could become more expensive again," he explained.

The official said banks that had previously contributed to instability in the foreign exchange market by purchasing large amounts of dollars in May 2022 were among those increasing forward bookings this month.

"However, the Bangladesh Bank has been able to bring the situation under control before it became more serious," the official added.

Demand for forward bookings rises

Industry insiders said demand for forward bookings rose sharply from the middle of March and remained strong until the first week of April. Although demand eased somewhat by mid-April, businesses remain interested in locking in exchange rates because of uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.

Bankers said demand could rise further if the conflict continues, if there are renewed expectations of a higher dollar rate, or if disruption occurs in the Strait of Hormuz.

A senior executive at a private commercial bank said the Bangladesh Bank had instructed lenders not to use dollars bought in the spot market for forward selling.

"We have been told that forward selling should be backed only by forward buying. But that is not possible for many banks because most do not have sufficient forward purchases in stock," he said.

"At the same time, businesses are seeking more forward bookings than before."

Several leading business groups have faced difficulties securing forward contracts since the central bank began discouraging the practice.

A senior executive at one of the country's largest conglomerates said the company had approached several private banks over the past week to arrange forward contracts, but the banks refused in line with the central bank's instruction.

According to the managing directors of some banks. The central bank had recently contacted them to seek details of how their institutions had calculated forward contracts after demand increased following the outbreak of war.

Despite the rise in forward demand, bankers said the supply of dollars in the market remains relatively comfortable and the exchange rate has begun to ease after a brief rise.

According to bankers, the dollar rate started falling after the Bangladesh Bank purchased dollars from commercial banks through auctions for two consecutive days at Tk122.75.

A senior official at a leading private company said his firm settled an import letter of credit at Tk122.98 per dollar last Wednesday, compared with Tk123.10 on Tuesday.

Cenbank move questioned

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, questioned the central bank's argument that forward booking itself would increase the dollar rate.

"The pressure on the dollar is coming from international markets. The increase in the taka-dollar exchange rate in Bangladesh has broadly matched the rise in the international dollar index," he said.

He also said there was a contradiction between Bangladesh Bank's commitment to a market-based exchange rate and its intervention in the market whenever the exchange rate fluctuates.

"If banks are forced to undertake forward selling only against forward buying, or if forward booking is discouraged altogether, that is itself a form of intervention that prevents the market from functioning naturally," he said.

Arfan Ali, former managing director of Bank Asia, said forward booking should be viewed as a legitimate risk management tool.

He said the volume of foreign exchange transactions in Bangladesh remains relatively low compared with many other countries, and most businesses have not traditionally engaged in hedging.

"Businesses may not previously have felt much need for forward booking. But the war has changed the situation, so demand has increased as companies seek to reduce their risk," he said. "This market should be allowed to become more viable."

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over domestic fuel supply continued to erode investor confidence, keeping the Dhaka stock market on a downward trajectory throughout the week.

Although trading opened on a mildly positive note, the momentum quickly faded as selling pressure intensified. Within a few sessions, major indices slipped, reflecting growing caution among investors.

Midweek, bargain hunters briefly returned to the market, taking advantage of lower prices and triggering a short-lived recovery. However, the rebound failed to sustain due to the absence of strong positive triggers or policy support. By the week's end, selling pressure resumed, leaving the market firmly in bearish territory.

The benchmark DSEX index edged down by 0.86 points to close at 5,257. The blue-chip DS30 fell 12 points to 1,990, while the Shariah-based DSES rose slightly by 3 points to 1,066. The SME index (DSMEX) dropped sharply by 31 points to 1,054.

Despite weak sentiment, trading activity increased. Average daily turnover rose 22.2% to Tk818 crore, up from Tk670 crore in the previous week. Total weekly turnover stood at Tk3,273 crore across four sessions, slightly lower than Tk3,348 crore a week earlier.

Market capitalisation declined by 0.44% to Tk6,85,632 crore. Of the 411 issues traded, 213 advanced, 142 declined, 35 remained unchanged, and 22 saw no trading activity.

Market analysts said global instability and fears of a potential energy crisis are key factors influencing investor behaviour. Government remarks on stock market restructuring have also prompted many investors to stay on the sidelines, putting the market in a wait-and-see mode.

In its weekly review, the market showed a flat-to-negative trend with volatile movements, reflecting a lack of clear direction. Early in the week, some buying interest emerged in December-closing stocks on expectations of favourable earnings. However, worries over ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East triggered renewed selling pressure.

Subsequent sessions saw intermittent bargain hunting, but gains were limited by cautious selling in large-cap stocks ahead of corporate earnings announcements.

Sector-wise, engineering stocks led turnover with 17.2%, followed by pharmaceuticals (11.6%) and general insurance (10.3%). Performance remained mixed, with ceramic, IT, and general insurance sectors posting gains, while banking, jute, and service sectors declined.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also ended lower, with the CASPI index falling 0.08% to 14,762 and the CSCX index closing at 9,040.

Analysts remain cautious about near-term market stability unless fuel supply conditions improve, global tensions ease, and clearer policy direction emerges.

Despite a broader market downturn amid the Middle East conflict, several fundamentally weak and loss-making stocks – mostly from the non-bank financial institution (NBFI) sector – emerged as the top gainers on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) in March.

According to monthly DSE data, five of the top 10 gainers were NBFIs, led by International Leasing and Financial Services, which surged 100% to close at Tk3.20 per share. Premier Leasing and Finance rose 83.33% to Tk3.30, while People's Leasing and Financial Services and Fareast Finance each gained 76.47% to Tk3. FAS Finance and Investment also saw a 70.59% increase to Tk3.90.

The remaining gainers included textile firms Hamid Fabrics and Familytex (BD), IFIC Bank First Mutual Fund, engineering firm Atlas Bangladesh, and Pacific Denims, reflecting a mix of low-cap and speculative stocks.

In total, 390 stocks were traded during the month, of which 173 advanced, 183 declined, and 34 remained unchanged, indicating a generally weak market trend.

Sector-wise, manufacturing stocks – including pharmaceuticals, textiles, engineering, cement, and food – accounted for the largest share of turnover at 46.86%, or Tk4,785 crore out of Tk10,211 crore. The financial sector, comprising banks, NBFIs, and insurance, contributed 29.97%, while the services and miscellaneous sector made up 23.09%.

Market insiders say the sharp rise in these stocks follows a prolonged slump, with many NBFIs previously hitting rock-bottom prices amid restructuring and liquidation concerns. Such rallies are often driven by speculative trading rather than strong fundamentals.

A similar trend was observed in February, when several struggling NBFIs posted sharp price increases after steep declines, highlighting continued volatility in the segment

The government has increased retail fuel prices at the consumer level, citing rising global oil market trends.

According to a gazette notification issued by the Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Division tonight (18 April), new prices will take effect from 12am Sunday (19 April).

Under the revised structure, diesel will cost Tk115 per litre, octane Tk140, petrol Tk135 and kerosene Tk130.

The latest adjustment represents a sharp increase across all major fuel categories. Diesel has been raised by Tk15 per litre, octane by Tk20, petrol by Tk19 and kerosene by Tk18.

The notification stated that the move was necessary to maintain stability in supply and ensure adjustment with global price trends.

Earlier, on 24 March, the BERC increased jet fuel prices by around 80% for domestic routes and nearly 79% for international routes in a single adjustment.

Officials said the latest revision was intended to align domestic prices with the international market, where oil prices have surged since the beginning of the Iran war on 28 February.

The government had previously resisted increasing fuel prices despite a steep rise in import costs, fearing that a higher diesel price would trigger transport fare increases, raise commodity prices and add to inflation.

However, officials said the growing cost of subsidies eventually left the government with little choice but to increase retail rates.

Bangladesh's oil import costs have increased significantly since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supplies and forced the country to buy fuel from non-traditional sources and the spot market.

The government had kept fuel prices unchanged for April, saying it wanted to protect consumers from further hardship.

Following the start of the Iran war, crude oil prices climbed to as high as around $116 a barrel from about $70-75 before the conflict.

The increase in global fuel prices forced the state-run Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation to spend an additional Tk1,200 crore to import 10 oil consignments in March.

Long queues have persisted at filling stations in recent weeks because of fuel shortages. Officials said panic buying and hoarding were major reasons behind the shortage.

The decision to keep prices unchanged earlier was also partly aimed at discouraging hoarding by reducing the incentive to store fuel in anticipation of a future price rise.

However, as subsidy costs mounted, the government decided to pass part of the burden on to consumers.

Meanwhile, in a Facebook post, Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman criticised the hike, saying global prices are falling while Bangladesh has increased fuel rates.

He described the move as "deeply unfortunate" and said it would further burden people already struggling with rising living costs.

The DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) has teamed up with the Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) to foster sustainable development, enhance efficiency, and strengthen international cooperation in Bangladesh’s capital market.

Takashi Hibino, chairman and CEO of JSDA, and Saiful Islam, president of DBA, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on April 9, according to a press release issued by the DBA today.

Under the agreement, the two organisations will collaborate in several key areas to support the development of the securities market, including the exchange of laws and regulations related to financial investment businesses and capital markets.

They will also work on developing governance frameworks, policy-making processes, and operational practices of self-regulatory organisations; strengthening supervision and compliance mechanisms; enhancing efficient financial transaction systems; fostering innovation in investment instruments and services; and expanding investor education programmes.

Additionally, both organisations will extend cooperation and consultation on other areas of mutual interest as needed.

Commenting on the agreement, the DBA president said the deal represents a significant advancement for Bangladesh’s capital market.

Partnering with a well-established and experienced self-regulatory organisation like JSDA will play a crucial role in strengthening market structure, governance, and institutional capacity, he said.

“We believe this collaboration will facilitate the exchange of global best practices and contribute to making our capital market more modern, transparent, and investor-friendly.”

Islam expressed optimism that the MoU would help build a more organised, dynamic, and internationally aligned capital market in Bangladesh, benefiting all market participants.

The core area of Beijing's Satellite Town, designed as a hub ​for satellite manufacturers and operators, ‌will be completed in the second half of 2026, state-owned media Beijing Daily reported on ​Saturday.

- Commercial launches now account ​for over 60% of all space launches ⁠and a number of companies are ​rushing to go public, Beijing Daily ​said.

- Gao Yibin, head of the Strategic Research Department at Future Aerospace, said with the acceleration ​of launch approvals, the localisation of ​components and the continued injection of capital by ‌industrial ⁠funds, China's trillion-yuan commercial space market is moving towards standardisation and scale

- "The accelerated implementation of scenarios such as low-Earth ​orbit constellation ​networking, satellite ⁠internet, space computing power, and 6G air-space-ground integration suggests sustained ​growth is expected in 2026," ​said ⁠Gao.

- The Beijing Satellite Town will provide the support to develop the aerospace ⁠industry ​by fostering industrial clustering ​and enabling talent, capital and technology to flow efficiently.

China's economy picked up speed early in 2026, riding an export surge before the Iran war sent energy costs soaring and put global demand - vital to Beijing's growth ambitions - at risk.

The 5.0% year-on-year pace in the first quarter sits at the top of China's full-year target range of 4.5%-5.0%, highlighting a resilience that sets it apart from much of Asia, helped by ample strategic oil reserves and a diversified energy mix.

Yet the Middle East conflict lays bare a core vulnerability: an export-led growth model that delivers annual trade surpluses the size of the Dutch economy depends on open sea lanes - for China and for the customers it sells to.

And as the world's biggest energy importer and manufacturing powerhouse, soaring oil prices threaten to drive up production costs and squeeze already thin margins at factories that employ hundreds of millions of people. The longer the conflict drags on, the higher the risks, and the pressure is already mounting.

Peng Xin, general manager of Guangdong Rongsu New Materials, which buys petrochemical feedstock from refineries and turns it into plastic pellets for injection-moulding factories, says prices for two types of nylon spiked roughly 40%-60%.

Peng is passing the increases on, while some of his customers rush to place orders and stockpile before costs climb further.

"The current coping method is to negotiate the price for every single order. If you accept my price, we cooperate. Otherwise, there's nothing we can do," he said.

"The entire industry chain is under pressure."

Imbalances expose China to global demand risks

The first-quarter GDP growth beat forecasts of 4.8% and October-December's three-year low of 4.5%, which a statistics bureau official described as a "rare and commendable" achievement, while warning of a "complex and volatile" external environment.

But the trade data for March earlier this week pointed to strains. Exports grew just 2.5% last month, slowing sharply from 21.8% in January–February.

And while factory-gate prices rose out of deflation in March for the first time in more than three years, analysts warn "bad inflation" driven by input costs could be even worse for growth.

"The solid start to the year on the back of strong export performance suggests the direct impact of the Middle East conflict remains contained for now," said Junyu Tan, North Asia economist at Coface.

"But the outlook is not all rosy despite China's relative resilience," Tan added. "The export engine could still be constrained by weaker global demand if the conflict persists."

And the economy remains imbalanced, with consumers unlikely to pick up the slack if exports falter.

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, grew 1.7% last month, down from 2.8% in January-February, and - as has been the norm in recent years - underperformed industrial output, which rose 5.7% in March versus 6.3% in the first two months.

Lending data earlier this week also showed sluggish credit demand from households and businesses.

Breaking China's protracted property slump will be critical to reviving consumption, but fresh data showing new home prices still falling suggest further pain for the country's embattled developers.

"On one hand you see resilience - the Iran war's impact on China is very limited. On the other hand you see imbalance - a strong export sector versus modest domestic demand," said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Beijing to ramp up stimulus if exports slow

Analysts do not expect the central bank to ease policy significantly, but say Beijing could deploy more fiscal firepower if the target comes under threat, adding to a debt burden more than three times the size of the economy.

Fiscal expenditure rose 3.6% in January–February, picking up from a 1% increase in 2025.

"The net exports' contribution to Chinese growth could turn negative in the second quarter," said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group.

"If that happens, then the domestic infrastructure spending and fiscal spending will step up in order to bridge the gap."

There is one silver lining for China, however. Cut off from the West after invading Ukraine, Russia now supplies it with discounted oil and gas. Heavy use of coal, rapid expansion of renewables and a growing electric vehicle fleet further shield China from energy shocks.

As the Iran crisis jolts markets, Chinese manufacturers may emerge in better shape than rivals in Europe and elsewhere, where production costs rise even faster.

"In a cost-push inflation cycle, firms normally cannot fully pass on the cost increase to consumers, and this will hit their profit margin," said EIU's Xu.

"That said, Chinese manufacturers still enjoy lower production costs relative to peers in other countries. That will help to preserve, if not increase, their global market share."

The Gulf energy crisis isn’t over. Ever since the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, regional tumult has throttled worldwide oil and gas supplies. On Friday, Iranian Foreign ​Minister Abbas Araqchi declared the opening of the key Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, through which a fifth of global oil and ‌gas shipments typically transit daily — part of a 10-day ceasefire that now encompasses hostilities in Lebanon. The question is whether investors are right in their apparent sense that the acute phase of the impasse is giving way to a longer-term chronic period, or whether energy prices are going to snap back up again.

For now, the mood is ​one of relief. Brent futures plummeted below $90 a barrel on Friday morning, having neared $120 late last month. In Europe, where gas storage ​levels are near the lowest they’ve been since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, May futures priced off the Dutch TTF benchmark collapsed to under 39 euros per megawatt-hour, from a mid-March high above 60 euros per MWh.

The reaction is understandable. Morgan Stanley analysts envisioned ​prices rising to perhaps $150 per barrel if the situation escalated. Already, at the recent level of $110 a barrel, the bank predicted that Asian GDP growth ​would fall from 5 percent to 4.2 percent this year. The International Monetary Fund similarly cut its forecast for global economic activity. The initial policy response sought to stem the worst effects. Price caps in Asia helped hold domestic fuel-price rises to only 16 percent, adjusting for purchasing power, well below a 53 percent increase in oil prices in local currencies, Morgan ​Stanley reckons. Though presented in broader terms, the UK government has said it will eliminate a carbon tax on natural gas generation.

Any sense of ​normalization needs to be qualified. As Gulf oil and gas storage filled, producers with nowhere to shift their product have shuttered output. War-ravaged infrastructure must be rebuilt. Ships take ‌time to reach port, with full resumption of traffic maybe months away.

A return to that daily norm of 100-plus ships is also far from guaranteed. President Trump’s promise to continue blockading Iran remains. And Araqchi noted that tankers must still coordinate with Iranian authorities: whether this means the country will continue extracting tolls for safe passage is unclear. Fresh costs or risks of re-erupting conflict could lead to a perhaps $10 per barrel oil price premium, experts previously told ​Breakingviews.

If the crisis is in its ​chronic phase, there are other implications. Any deal between Iran and the US to curb Tehran’s nuclear enrichment may not last — after all, the one struck a decade ago by President Barack Obama didn’t. Other consequences abound: Japan is seeking to restart nuclear reactors; ​China raised its target for renewable energy. Consumers too, will respond, judging by reports of frenzied electric-vehicle buying.

Brent prices ​are still meaningfully higher than their pre-conflict low-$70s a barrel in late February. Even still, they could prove to be too low. In a post on social media network X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on April 17 that “passage for all commercial vessels” through the Strait of Hormuz is “declared completely open for the ​remaining period” of a ceasefire that has now extended to Lebanon.

In a subsequent post ​on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump also said that the Strait is “completely open,” but added that a “naval blockade” will remain in place “as it pertains to Iran,” until “our transaction” is complete. ​US and Iranian negotiators are working towards a peace plan, Axios reported.

Bangladesh’s garment sector is going through a period of sustained pressure as the war in the Middle East disrupts production and international retailers scale back orders.

Western retailers are expected to cut apparel orders by up to 10 percent next season, as higher clothing prices dampen demand and unsold stock piles up in stores.

The latest setback is another blow for local manufacturers, who are already dealing with frequent load shedding, rising transport costs and a deepening fuel crunch following the US-Israel war on Iran.

Exporters say the war has already driven up raw material import bills and freight charges for shipments abroad.

The readymade garment sector, which accounts for more than 80 percent of national export earnings, had only just begun to steady itself after reciprocal tariff turbulence.

But now, conditions are combining to create a perfect storm for the readymade garment sector. Many fear the combined effect could lead to a decline in future orders.

Preferring anonymity, a senior official of a leading European buyer said that overall, 8 percent to 10 percent of garment work orders will be cut for the next season as buyers begin placing orders.

He said retailers and brands across the West are still burdened with unsold winter merchandise, while goods for the current season have already arrived. As a result, orders for the next cycle have slowed.

Amid the fuel crisis, the official said freight costs inside Bangladesh have also climbed. The fare of goods-laden trucks plying between Dhaka and Chattogram has risen, despite no official increase in petroleum prices.

Truck operators, citing fuel rationing, have raised per-truck charges to Tk 50,000 from Tk 38,000. On average, he said fares have increased by around 20 percent since the outbreak of the war.

Moreover, factories that depend on diesel generators are facing mounting disruption. Many report delays in getting adequate supplies, while cotton prices have risen, pushing yarn costs up by 17 percent to 18 percent.

“But buyers are reluctant to absorb higher prices,” said the official. “The consumers will not pay higher prices during the bad times because of an increase in the cost of production. So, at the end of the year, the overall export growth in the garment sector may be much lower than last year.”

Another European buyer, also requesting anonymity, said that the war has slowed down the business and the recovery is still very uncertain.

He added that demand for outerwear in Europe could rise next season as higher energy prices prompt consumers to buy warmer clothing. However, inventories are still elevated.

Ramzul Seraj, managing director of Elite Garments Ltd, which exports to the United States, said demand for garment items in the US has weakened, while factory output in Bangladesh has been hit by diesel shortages.

Delays in production could force some exporters to use more expensive air shipments to meet delivery deadlines, he added.

Masud Kabir, managing director of Motex Fashion, a Gazipur-based sweater factory, said he receives diesel using a special card introduced by the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA). But the supply falls short of covering nearly eight hours of load-shedding.

He can run the factory with the diesel collected from a nearby petrol pump for three and a half hours, he said. As a result, production has suffered.

Anwar Ul Alam Chowdhury, chairman of Evince Group, said the government is supplying diesel, but factories require larger volumes to operate generators smoothly.

Md Fazlul Hoque, managing director of Plummy Fashions, said inadequate diesel supplies have also disrupted his operations. At the same time, freight charges for sea shipments have increased, along with prices of cotton, yarn and polyester.

The combined effect, Hoque said, is a likely decline in future orders.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), said some competing countries such as Turkey are expanding exports despite the war, helped by their proximity to Europe and the United States and more reliable energy supplies.

He also expressed concern that recurring two-to-three-hour power cuts could lead to greater reliance on costly air freight.

BGMEA Director Faisal Samad said the association is in contact with buyers, urging them to take into account the exceptional circumstances created by the global oil crisis. Since April 13, member factories have been able to access diesel on a priority basis through a special card facility.

“Even so, overall productivity has declined because of insufficient fuel supplies,” he said.

BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan said buyers also want factories to keep running as this is a global crisis.

The DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) to enhance cooperation and support the sustainable development of Bangladesh's capital market.

The agreement, signed virtually on Thursday (16 April), aims to improve market efficiency, strengthen governance, and promote international collaboration.

The DBA represents brokerage firms operating under the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), while JSDA functions as a self-regulatory organisation (SRO) and a key representative of Japan's securities industry.

According to its website, JSDA has around 500 member institutions, including securities firms, banks, and other financial entities.

The MoU was signed by Takashi Hibino, chairman and CEO of JSDA, and Saiful Islam, president of DBA, on behalf of their respective organisations.

In a press release, DBA said this is its first formal agreement with an international SRO, marking a significant milestone for the association.

Under the agreement, the two organisations will collaborate across several key areas, including the exchange of laws and regulations related to financial investment and capital markets, development of governance frameworks, policy-making processes, and operational practices of SROs.

The partnership will also focus on strengthening supervision and compliance mechanisms, enhancing financial transaction systems, promoting innovation in investment instruments and services, and expanding investor education programmes. Both sides will extend cooperation in other areas of mutual interest as needed.

Commenting on the development, Saiful Islam said the MoU represents a major step forward for Bangladesh's capital market.

"Partnering with a well-established and experienced self-regulatory organisation like JSDA will play a crucial role in strengthening our market structure, governance, and institutional capacity," he said.

He added that the collaboration would facilitate the exchange of global best practices and help make the country's capital market more modern, transparent, and investor-friendly.

Saiful Islam also expressed optimism that the agreement would contribute to building a more organised, dynamic, and internationally aligned capital market, benefiting all stakeholders.

Iran said it was tightening control over the ​Strait of Hormuz on Saturday (18 April), warning mariners that the energy lifeline was again closed, as shipping sources said at least two vessels reported coming under fire while trying to transit the waterway.

Tehran said it ‌was responding to a continued US blockade of Iranian ports, calling it a violation of their ceasefire, while Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran's navy was ready to inflict "new bitter defeats" on its enemies.

Tehran's renewed tough messaging injected fresh uncertainty around the Iran conflict, raising the risk that oil and gas shipments through the Strait could remain disrupted just as Washington weighs whether to extend the fragile ceasefire.

Some merchant vessels received radio messages from Iran's navy saying no ships were allowed through the waterway, maritime security and shipping sources said, reversing signs earlier in the day that traffic ​might resume.

At least two vessels reported being hit by gunfire as they attempted to cross the strait, the sources said.

Earlier, maritime trackers had shown a convoy of eight tankers transiting the narrow passage in the first major movement ​of ships since the US-Israeli war on Iran began seven weeks ago.

US-Iran ceasefire due to end on Wednesday

Hours earlier, US President Donald Trump had cited "some pretty good news" about Iran, declining to ⁠elaborate. But he also said fighting might resume without a peace deal by Wednesday, when the two-week ceasefire expires.

Iran had announced its temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following a separate US-brokered 10-day ceasefire agreement on Thursday between Israel and Lebanon. Israel ​invaded parts of southern Lebanon after the Iran-allied Hezbollah militant group joined the fighting in early March.

But on Saturday Iran's armed forces command said transit through the strait had reverted to a state of strict Iranian military control, citing what it described ​as repeated US violations and acts of "piracy" under the guise of a blockade.

The spokesperson said Iran had earlier agreed, "in good faith," to the managed passage of a limited number of oil tankers and commercial vessels following negotiations, but said continued US actions had forced Tehran to restore tighter controls on shipping through the strategic chokepoint.

US Central Command said in a statement that American forces were enforcing a maritime blockade of Iran, but did not comment on the latest Iranian actions.

Unclear if any direct talks this weekend

The war with Iran, which began on 28 February with a US-Israeli ​attack on the Islamic Republic, has killed thousands, spread to Israeli attacks in Lebanon and sent oil prices surging because of the de facto closure of the strait.

Despite the initial movement of ships, Iran's deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said no ​date had been set for the next round of negotiations, adding that a framework of understanding must be agreed first.

Asked about reports Tehran had closed the Strait, he said that the Americans had violated the terms of the ceasefire, and so "there will be repercussions for them".

Pressure for ‌a way out ⁠of the war has mounted as Trump's fellow Republicans defend narrow majorities in Congress in the November midterm elections with US gasoline prices high, inflation rising and his own approval ratings down.

"It seems to be going very well in the Middle East with Iran," Trump told reporters on Air Force One while returning to Washington from Phoenix, Arizona, on Friday. "We're negotiating over the weekend. I expect things to go well. Many of these things have been negotiated and agreed to.

"The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. You cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon, and that supersedes everything else."

But in sharp contrast, Trump also said he might end the ceasefire with Iran unless a long-term deal to end the war was agreed before it ​expires on Wednesday, adding that a US blockade of Iranian ports ​would continue.

Trump has told Reuters there would probably be ⁠more direct talks between Iran and the US this weekend. Some diplomats said that was unlikely given the logistics of gathering in Islamabad, where the talks are expected to take place.

There were no signs of preparations early on Saturday for talks in the Pakistani capital, where the highest-level US-Iran negotiations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution ended without agreement last weekend.

The key Pakistani mediator, ​army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, has concluded three days of talks in Tehran, the Pakistani military said. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was also returning to Islamabad after talks ​this week in Qatar, Saudi Arabia ⁠and Turkey.

A Pakistani source aware of mediation efforts said a meeting between Iran and the US could produce an initial memorandum of understanding, followed by a comprehensive peace agreement within 60 days.

No clarity on Iran's nuclear programme

Differences remained over Tehran's nuclear programme, which has been a sticking point in peace talks, with Iran defending its right to what it says is a civilian nuclear energy programme.

Trump told Reuters the US would remove Iran's stockpiles of enriched uranium. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson told state TV the material would not be transferred ⁠anywhere.

Separately, a senior ​Iranian official said Tehran hoped a preliminary agreement could be reached in the coming days.

Oil prices , fell about 10% and global stocks jumped on Friday on ​the prospect of marine traffic resuming through the strait. Despite that, hundreds of vessels and about 20,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Gulf awaiting passage through the waterway, shipping sources said.

At last weekend's talks, the US proposed a 20-year suspension of all Iranian nuclear activity, while Iran suggested a halt of ​three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals.

Two Iranian sources have said there were signs of a compromise that could remove part of the stockpile.

The unequal agreement signed by the interim government with the US poses a major obstacle to energy security in Bangladesh rather than the disruption in fuel imports through the Strait of Hormuz, said Debapriya Bhattacharya, a public policy analyst.

“The Strait of Hormuz is indeed an obstacle to fuel imports, but the US trade agreement is a bigger barrier,” he said at a pre-budget shadow parliamentary debate competition organised by the Debate for Democracy on Saturday.

The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) signed on February 9, just three days before the election, commits Bangladesh to purchasing $15 billion in US energy products, including LNG, over 15 years. It also restricts Bangladesh’s ability to buy cheaper fuel from countries under US sanctions such as Russia.

“The current government says it will not pursue country-specific foreign policies. Yet, that is exactly what is happening in the trade deal -- we now need permission regarding whom we can buy oil from,” said Bhattacharya, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue.

However, Bangladesh should make the best of the 60-day waiver offered by the US on oil purchases from Russia.

While criticising the deposed government, Bhattacharya said the energy policy was confusing and controversial, with exploitative policies adopted by an unholy nexus of bureaucrats, business groups and politicians.

Instead of productive investment, priority was given to import-dependent energy strategies to serve vested interests, leading to the import of LNG instead of domestic gas exploration.

Institutions like the state-owned Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration and Production Company (BAPEX) were weakened.

There were major irregularities in energy imports, Bhattacharya said.

The government has formed a cabinet committee on energy security, but it should inform the public about its activities through transparency and bring the matter for discussion in the national parliament.

Although the government has spoken about forming a reform commission in line with its electoral promises, it has not yet been made visible.

The government should clearly disclose its plans for reforms in public financial management, revenue collection and incentives, Bhattacharya added.

While moderating the programme, Hassan Ahamed Chowdhury Kiron, chairman of the Debate for Democracy, said that due to past corruption, Bangladesh failed to achieve self-reliance in energy.

Import dependence was increased for vested interests, while domestic production was neglected.

Therefore, ensuring energy security will be a major challenge for the government in the upcoming budget, he said.

The upcoming budget must reflect the expectations of ordinary people.

During a crisis, a people-friendly, business-friendly, sustainable and cautious budget needs to be presented.

The new government, which has achieved a large mandate, must maintain its popularity by presenting a budget that ensures maximum welfare, avoids placing pressure on lower- and middle-income groups, prevents public suffering and maintains price stability.

Additionally, to keep the economy active and ensure investment and employment growth, a hassle-free business environment must be created.

Therefore, the upcoming budget must be people-oriented and practical, he said.

Bangladesh’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sector has grown rapidly, yet lacks the storage capacity to buffer itself against global market shocks, according to the president of the LPG Operators Association of Bangladesh (LOAB).

“Expanding storage capacity is essential for improving supply security,” Mohammed Amirul Haque said in an interview with The Daily Star recently. “If operators can store larger volumes, they can better manage fluctuations in global supply and price movements.”

According to industry estimates, Bangladesh currently consumes around 17-18 lakh tonnes of LPG annually. Around 80 percent of this demand comes from households, mainly for cooking in areas where natural gas through pipeline is unavailable. Industrial, commercial, and autogas use together account for the remaining share.

Haque, also the managing director of Delta LPG Limited, said the country’s transition toward LPG took place over the last decade after the government decided to permanently halt new pipeline gas connections to households in order to manage limited domestic gas reserves.

He, however, pointed out that the industry’s dependence on imports means that the entire supply chain, from procurement to pricing, remains highly sensitive to global market conditions.

“Geopolitical tensions, disruptions in shipping routes, or volatility in international benchmark prices can directly affect supply costs and domestic pricing,” he said.

Most LPG used in Bangladesh is sourced from the Middle East, with prices typically linked to the Saudi Aramco Contract Price, which serves as a reference point for global LPG trade. Changes in that benchmark are quickly transmitted to the domestic market, leaving consumers exposed to international volatility.

“Any disruption in the international supply chain can affect Bangladesh’s LPG market because we do not have significant domestic production,” Haque said. “Even freight costs and insurance premiums can change depending on geopolitical developments, which ultimately affects the landed cost of LPG.”

Disruptions along major shipping corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea can have immediate repercussions on global LPG trade flows.

When global shipping rates rise, the additional cost is reflected in the final price of LPG in the domestic market.

Haque argued that the country’s growing LPG demand has intensified the need for stronger storage and distribution infrastructure. Currently, most operators rely on coastal storage terminals and bottling plants to distribute LPG cylinders across the country.

“Expanding storage capacity is essential for improving supply security,” he said. “If operators can store larger volumes, they can better manage fluctuations in global supply and price movements.”

Without sufficient storage, the market remains more vulnerable to sudden price spikes or supply delays, he added.

Diversifying import sources is another important strategy for reducing supply risk, the LOAB president also said, noting that Bangladesh relies heavily on a relatively small number of international suppliers.

By broadening procurement sources and strengthening supply agreements with multiple exporting countries, the industry could reduce its exposure to regional disruptions, he said.

Haque also called for infrastructure improvements at ports and terminals to support the continued expansion of the sector, noting that such logistical bottlenecks can slow shipment movement and increase costs.

Domestically, he said, private sector investment has played a major role in expanding LPG infrastructure across Bangladesh. Over the past decade, operators have invested heavily in bottling plants, storage facilities and distribution networks to support the growing market.

However, regulatory stability and predictable pricing mechanisms are also crucial for maintaining investor confidence in a market that is closely tied to global energy dynamics.

Local LPG prices are regulated by the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission, which adjusts retail prices in line with international benchmarks. While this mechanism provides transparency, sudden changes in global prices can still create challenges for both operators and consumers.

“Transparent and predictable pricing mechanisms are essential,” Haque said. “When international prices rise, adjustments should be gradual so that consumers are not suddenly burdened while the industry remains financially viable.”

He expects demand for LPG to continue growing as urbanisation increases and more households move away from traditional cooking fuels such as firewood and biomass.

Industrial and commercial sectors are also gradually expanding their use of LPG due to its efficiency and environmental advantages compared with some conventional fuels.

Industry projections suggest that Bangladesh’s LPG consumption could reach around 40 lakh tonnes annually over the next decade if infrastructure and policy support keep pace with demand.

However, the country’s continued reliance on imported LPG means that global market conditions will remain a defining factor in the sector’s long-term stability.

Strengthening storage capacity, diversifying supply sources, improving port infrastructure and ensuring regulatory consistency will be key steps toward building a more resilient LPG supply chain, said Haque.

The ongoing fuel crisis is disrupting irrigation for the ongoing boro season across multiple districts, with farmers and pump owners struggling to secure diesel at a critical stage of crop growth.

In districts including Brahmanbaria, Bogura, Naogaon, Rangpur, Sirajganj, Tangail and Khulna, farmers say diesel supply has fallen short, forcing them to wait for hours at filling stations or return without fuel. In many areas, diesel is being sold at Tk120-130 per litre, above the government rate, while in some cases it is not available even at pumps.

The shortage is delaying irrigation and increasing costs, as farmers are forced to buy diesel at higher prices or collect fuel from multiple sources. Power outages lasting seven to eight hours a day in some areas are also preventing electric pumps from operating, adding pressure on diesel-run irrigation systems.

Authorities have introduced measures such as priority cards and certification from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) to manage supply. However, farmers say they are still not getting adequate fuel. Some pump owners also said they have not received such cards, while others said the supply does not match official claims of availability.

With most irrigation dependent on diesel, farmers say fields are drying due to delayed watering, crop growth is slowing at the paddy heading stage, and the risk of lower yields is increasing. Some also alleged that parts of the fuel supply are controlled by syndicates, contributing to scarcity, and called for stronger monitoring.

High diesel prices in Brahmanbaria

Farmers in Brahmanbaria are struggling to irrigate boro fields amid diesel shortages and load-shedding.

Pump owners said diesel is not available as required, while electric pumps cannot run due to power outages. Diesel is selling at Tk125-130 per litre in local markets.

Boro has been cultivated on 111,770 hectares in the district this season, with 4,338 diesel-run and 4,287 electric pumps in use.

Load-shedding has increased in rural areas, with many areas facing power cuts for seven to eight hours daily. As a result, electric irrigation pumps cannot be operated regularly.

The shortage has intensified since mid-March, with diesel often unavailable at filling stations and sold at higher prices when available.

Abdul Aziz from Ibrahimpur village in Nabinagar upazila said, "Diesel is available at Tk125 per litre, so we have to charge farmers more," adding that irrigation cost per kani has risen from Tk4,000 to Tk5,000.

Another farmer, Abdul Hannan from Akhaura upazila, said, "We cannot run pumps continuously and often have to collect diesel from different places, which increases costs."

Long queues in north

In Bogura, Angur Begum from Kagail area of Gabtali upazila said collecting diesel has become difficult, with long queues at filling stations and prices Tk10-15 higher per litre.

In Naogaon, a card system has been introduced to prioritise diesel supply, but farmers say supply remains inadequate. Rustam Ali from Bhimpur area of Naogaon Sadar upazila said, "We have to wait for hours, and it is becoming difficult to continue cultivation."

According to the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), most irrigation systems in the region depend on diesel, and the shortage is severely disrupting irrigation. The district has set a target to cultivate boro on 132,410 hectares this season.

In Rangpur, Abdul Malek from Gangachara upazila said diesel is not being sold even when farmers go to filling stations with containers. "Farmers are in a difficult situation. If we cannot irrigate on time, the entire crop may be lost," he said, alleging that some dishonest traders are involved in a fuel syndicate and calling for stronger monitoring.

In Sirajganj, Naim Sheikh from Telkupi village in Khokshabari union said he sometimes buys diesel at Tk120 per litre after waiting for hours, as demand has increased at a critical stage of paddy growth.

Shahidul Islam from Barakandi village in Kamarkhand upazila said pump owners are reducing irrigation to cut costs due to the shortage. "This may lead to lower yield," he said.

50,000 pump owners 'face shortage' in Tangail

More than 50,000 diesel-run irrigation pump owners in Tangail are facing difficulties due to a fuel shortage during the boro season.

Ayub Khan from Gopalkeutail village in Tangail Sadar upazila said diesel is selling at Tk130 per litre against the government rate of Tk100, but remains unavailable. "Paddy is at a critical stage and lack of irrigation could cause losses," he said.

Local residents said the shortage has led to long queues at filling stations, with some remaining closed for one to two days.

Khokon Mia from the same village said he often travels long distances but returns without fuel. "We have not been able to meet demand for weeks," he said, adding that he received only 20 litres after waiting several hours.

"The situation on the ground does not match official claims of adequate supply," he added.

Md Azad Ali and Abdur Rouf from Omorpur village said they have not received farmer cards and already struggle to recover costs from paddy cultivation, adding that the diesel shortage would further increase losses.

Hours of wait even with certification in Khulna

Farmers in Khulna are struggling to get sufficient diesel despite certification from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), often returning with small amounts after waiting for hours.

Gouranga Mondal from Basurabad village in Sadar union of Batiaghata upazila said he has not been getting diesel for 15 days. "Even with certification, I got diesel worth only Tk500 after waiting in line. Without irrigation at this stage, yield will fall," he said.

Debabrata Mondal from the same village said crop growth has slowed as he could not irrigate for 10 days. "The agriculture office says the shortage is due to the ongoing conflict," he said.

Dip Narayan Biswas from Debitala village said he received 60 litres after 13 days using certification. "This will last a few days, but I do not know what will happen next," he said, adding that watermelon cultivation would face losses without regular irrigation.

Stock markets fell on Friday as investors awaited news of an extension to the Iran-US ceasefire, while crude prices edged back down following the previous day's rally.

The losses follow a healthy, record-breaking week for equities, fuelled by hopes the Middle East war, which is heading into a seventh week, could be close to an end after Donald Trump said negotiators were close to a deal.

But worries abound that a shaky truce agreed earlier this month -- and which ends next week -- could fall apart and spark a fresh market rout.

The US president on Thursday struck an optimistic tone, telling reporters that "it's looking very good that we're going to make a deal with Iran, and it's going to be a good deal", adding that talks between Washington and Tehran could resume this weekend.

He also claimed Iran had "agreed to give us back the nuclear dust", using his name for the country's enriched uranium stockpile, and the deal would include "free oil" as well as the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

"We had to make sure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon," Trump said at the White House. "They've totally agreed to that. They've agreed to almost everything, so maybe if they can get to the table, there's a difference."

Iran has given no public indication that it would surrender its stockpile.

However, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth took a tough line on the situation earlier in the day, telling a Pentagon news conference: "If Iran chooses poorly, then they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy."

Meanwhile, some Gulf Arab and European leaders fear a long-term agreement could take six months to achieve and called for the truce to cover such a time period, Bloomberg reported.

They wanted the Strait of Hormuz -- through which about a fifth of global oil and LNG passes -- opened immediately and have warned in private of a global food crisis if that is not achieved by next month, the report said.

Fragile sentiment

Stocks fell across the region, with Tokyo, which hit a record high Thursday, among the biggest losers, with Seoul, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Wellington, Manila and Singapore also well down.

Taiwan's TAIEX dropped. On Thursday it hit a market capitalisation of US$4.14 trillion to top the UK's market capitalisation and become the world's seventh biggest, according to Bloomberg data.

London edged lower, Paris edged up, and Frankfurt was flat.

That came even after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq enjoyed record closes on Wall Street.

Analysts said traders were heading into the weekend to position for any surprise developments.

Oil prices dropped, a day after sharp gains, though both main contracts remain just below $100 a barrel.

There was some support from a 10-day ceasefire agreed between Israel and Lebanon that took effect at 2100 GMT Thursday.

Tel Aviv has sent troops into its northern neighbour since militant group Hezbollah launched rocket attacks in support of Iran last month.

Hezbollah has not officially said if it will recognise the ceasefire, but one of its lawmakers told AFP on Thursday that the group would respect it if Israeli attacks on its militants stopped.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon offered an opportunity for a "historic peace agreement", but insisted that the disarmament of militant group Hezbollah remained a precondition.

Trump said he will invite the countries' leaders to the White House.

"While investors remain buoyed by talks of an extension in the US-Iran ceasefire and an announced Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire, risk sentiment remains fragile as an immediate deal remains unlikely given that the countries remain far apart on key issues," wrote National Australia Bank's Skye Masters.

Fiona Cincotta of City Index said, "While risks remain -- particularly around disruptions to key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz -- markets are increasingly pricing in a scenario where oil prices have peaked unless tensions re-escalate."

But she warned, "the outlook remains fragile. A breakdown in diplomacy or renewed escalation could quickly reverse recent gains".

Key figures around 0715 GMT

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.8 percent at 58,475.90 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.2 percent at 26,087.89

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 4,051.43 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 10,584.26

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.0 percent at $93.73 a barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.6 percent at $98.76 a barrel

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1777 from $1.1784 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3507 from $1.3529

Dollar/yen: UP at 159.40 yen from 159.14 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 87.17 pence from 87.09 pence

New York - Dow Jones: UP 0.2 percent at 48,578.72 (close)