Bangladesh Bank (BB) has resumed purchasing US dollars from the market after one and a half months, driven by higher inflows than outflows amid strong remittance earnings.

Yesterday, the central bank bought $70 million from Islami Bank Bangladesh at a cut-off rate of Tk 122.75 per US dollar.

Earlier, on March 2, BB purchased $25 million from two commercial banks through multiple auction methods.

During the 2025-26 fiscal year, total US dollar purchases stood at $5.56 billion, according to BB data.

Remittance inflows reached an all-time high of $3.75 billion in March, as Bangladeshis working abroad sent increased amounts to their families ahead of Eid-ul-Fitr.

In addition, remittance inflows stood at $1.60 billion between April 1 and April 14 this year, up 25.2 percent year-on-year, data showed.

The banking regulator began purchasing dollars at the start of the current fiscal year as supply increased, supported by higher export earnings and remittance inflows.

However, between FY21 and FY25, Bangladesh Bank sold more than $25 billion from its foreign exchange reserves to meet import payments for fuel, fertiliser, and food.

Due to BB’s recent dollar purchases, gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $34.87 billion yesterday, up from $34.60 billion two days earlier.

Demand for crude oil will likely decline this year for the first time since the Covid pandemic slammed the global economy six years ago, weighed down by Mideast war disruptions, the IEA warned Tuesday.

Surging prices caused by the Strait of Hormuz’s closure and damage to production facilities will force countries and industries to curtail oil use, and “demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist”, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report.

It noted that its forecasts assume a “base case” of oil shipments resuming in May through Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively closed since the US and Israel began bombing Iran on February 28.

This would lead to a decline in demand of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter, “the sharpest since Covid-19 slashed fuel consumption”, the agency said.

Overall demand is forecast to have contracted by 800,000 bpd in March and is seen dropping by 2.3 million bpd in April.

Surging prices caused by the Strait of Hormuz’s closure and damage to production facilities will force countries and industries to curtail oil use
But a “protracted case” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed would lead to persistently high prices that crimp demand by an even higher average of five million bpd through the rest of this year.

“In this case, energy markets and economies around the world need to brace for significant disruptions in the months to come,” the agency warned.

Global oil use is expected to fall over 2026 as a whole as a result of the Hormuz closure and the destruction of energy infrastructure across the Gulf from retaliatory Iranian attacks.

The IEA now sees a demand drop of 80,000 bpd this year, compared with its previous forecast of growth of 730,000 bpd.

It called it “the largest disruption in history” to the market and cautioned that with “the prospects for a lasting negotiated settlement to the conflict still unclear”, the economic pain could be worse.

Already the supply cuts took more than 360 million barrels off the market in March, a figure expected to rise to 440 million barrels for April.

Oil supplies overall plunged to 97 million bpd in March, down by 10.1 million bpd as the Mideast fighting rocked the market.

Oil prices have nearly doubled since the Mideast war began and remain near $100 a barrel, with prices of refined products like petrol and jet fuel rising even higher.

Many governments have already imposed measures to conserve use, but if the fighting continues “energy markets and economies around the world need to brace for significant disruptions in the months to come”.

Countries are also tapping into crude stock reserves to soften the blow from lost Gulf exports, and inventories fell by 85 million barrels overall in March.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol has repeatedly said the agency stands ready to approve the release of more reserves if needed.

But some analysts say energy traders are increasingly betting that neither Iran nor the United States want the war to continue, and are banking on talks producing a ceasefire.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at the investing platform XTB, said that even though tensions are high, “the market is comfortable that this war has entered a new stage, one that will lead to the end of fighting and a pathway to reopening the waterway”.

Bangladesh-based agri-tech startup iFarmer has secured $1.5 million in foreign funding as it aims to strengthen the country’s agricultural value chain.

The funding comes from Symbiotics, a Switzerland-based market access platform for impact investing, according to a statement.

The investment will support iFarmer’s working capital requirements, enabling it to expand agricultural input distribution and strengthen market linkages for farmers across Bangladesh.

iFarmer said the investment marks another important milestone, as international investors continue to back technology-driven agricultural platforms that improve efficiency, transparency, and access to financing in emerging markets.

Bangladesh’s agriculture sector employs nearly 40 percent of the workforce and contributes significantly to the national economy, supporting around 25 million farmers across 17 million farms and accounting for about 12 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). However, farmers continue to face challenges related to financing, input quality, and market access.

iFarmer is addressing these challenges by building an integrated agricultural platform that connects farmers, retailers, suppliers, and institutional buyers through financing, digital advisory, input supply, and output market linkages.

With this new financing from Symbiotics, iFarmer will expand its agri-input distribution platform, KriShop, and strengthen its supply chain operations to ensure farmers have access to quality inputs and reliable market access for their produce, according to the statement.

The funding will also support iFarmer’s broader platform operations that connect farmers directly with large buyers, improving efficiency across the agricultural value chain.

Founded in 2019, iFarmer has grown into one of Bangladesh’s leading agri-fintech platforms, currently working with over 300,000 farmers and 24,000 agricultural retailers across the country.

The company combines embedded finance, digital advisory, input supply, and market linkage services into a single platform designed to increase farmers’ income and improve agricultural productivity.

Fahad Ifaz, co-founder and CEO of iFarmer, said, “This partnership with Symbiotics is an important step in our journey to build the digital and financial infrastructure for agriculture in Bangladesh.”

“Access to working capital is critical for scaling agricultural supply chains. With this investment, we will be able to expand our operations, reach more farmers and retailers, and strengthen market linkages across the agricultural ecosystem.”

“We believe this is just the beginning, and we look forward to working with more global partners who want to invest in building the future of agriculture in emerging markets.”

Aldric Luyt, head of fintech at Symbiotics, said, “This investment reflects our commitment to supporting underserved agricultural communities in Bangladesh. iFarmer’s innovative model improves supply chain efficiency and expands economic opportunities. Our investment will help scale their impact, contributing to more resilient and sustainable food systems.”

While the World Bank and Asian Development Bank had lowered Bangladesh’s GDP growth forecast due to the Persian Gulf crisis and domestic vulnerabilities, the International Monetary Fund has kept its earlier projection unchanged.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday projects Bangladesh’s GDP growth at 4.7 percent for FY2025-26, which was the same as its earlier projection from January.

However, IMF’s growth projection is set to dip further to 4.3 percent in the next fiscal.

The World Bank revised its projection down to 3.9 percent growth from 4.6, while the ADB revised its forecast down to 4 percent from its previous projection of 4.7 percent.

Former World Bank lead economist Zahid Hussain told The Daily Star that the IMF’s forecast “appears rather strange,” adding that “it is the same as projected in their Article IV report released in January 2026.”

The absence of any impact of the war in the current fiscal year is inconsistent with their own assumption that economies with vulnerabilities and limited buffers are likely to be hit hardest. Bangladesh is one such economy.

He also said individuals and firms in Bangladesh have been living with the growth and inflation impacts ever since the war started. There is no reason in fact or logic to believe Bangladesh will remain insulated from the impact of the war for four months.

Hussain noted that the IMF’s 4.3 percent growth projection for FY27 is more realistic if its reference scenario, in which the war shock fades by June, materialises.

The government, however, remains confident, insisting that GDP growth will reach 5 percent in 2026.

The ongoing Middle East conflict is severely disrupting production in the garment sector due to energy shortages, Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) President Mahmud Hasan Khan said yesterday.

He made the statement at a meeting with Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir at the minister’s office in Dhaka, where he led a BGMEA business delegation.

Khan said the sector is facing a crisis due to global economic instability, the impact of the Middle East conflict, and severe gas and electricity shortages in the country, according to a BGMEA statement after the meeting.

He also said rising raw material prices and higher production costs have further worsened the situation.

In such a difficult time, strong policy support from the government and a business-friendly environment are essential to stay competitive in the international market, he added.

Khan also spoke about the RMG Sustainability Council (RSC), saying it was formed mainly to address future industry challenges, including monitoring building, fire, and electrical safety standards.

However, he said that social compliance issues such as wages and trade unions are not within its core responsibility.

Khan added that expanding its role into these areas would create extra administrative and financial burdens on the industry, which is not desirable.

He also stressed that any decision in this regard must be made in line with stakeholders’ views and national laws, the statement read.

During the meeting, the BGMEA chief called for an amendment to the current import policy to simplify the import of raw materials on a free of cost (FOC) basis.

He also requested a revision of relevant clauses in the Import Policy Order to remove the requirement for bond licences when supplying goods from bonded exporters to non-bonded direct exporters.

BGMEA leaders urged the withdrawal of the existing 10 percent income tax deduction on cash incentives to boost garment exports.

They also called for normalising trade relations with India and removing barriers to yarn imports and product exports through land ports.

To further speed up garment exports, they proposed amending relevant sections of the Import Policy 2024-2027 and automating the process for determining CIP (Commercially Important Person) status for industry entrepreneurs.

The minister acknowledged the importance of the sector as the country’s leading foreign currency earner in the current global context.

He assured that the government would provide necessary policy support to address challenges and maintain Bangladesh’s competitiveness in the global market, the statement added.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman today sought a US$ 2 billion fund from development partners to meet Bangladesh’s immediate energy needs and safeguard economic stability amid the ongoing global energy crisis.

“The situation before us demands urgency, solidarity, and decisive action. Immediate support for the most vulnerable countries must be at the top of our collective agenda,” he said while addressing the Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) Plus Online Summit.

“We urge the international community to respond swiftly and positively to this call,” he added.

The prime minister said the energy crisis is a stark reminder of the shared vulnerability and interdependence of countries, regardless of size or strength.

He stressed that Asia requires a coordinated and forward-looking response to strengthen energy security, address immediate supply disruptions, and support the most vulnerable nations.

Tarique said the crisis has already disrupted Bangladesh’s economy. “In response, we have taken a range of short-term measures to contain the impact,” he said.

These measures include demand-side management through the rationing of government office and market hours; stabilising fuel supplies through emergency imports and diversified sourcing; and consumption controls, including fuel rationing and limits on retail sales to prevent hoarding and panic buying through initiatives such as the "Fuel App".

He warned that the scale and consequences of the crisis could exceed those of the 1970s oil shock, which triggered a decade of stalled development in the 1980s.

Since independence in 1971, he said, Bangladesh has worked relentlessly to drive economic growth, lift millions out of poverty, and improve living standards.

“Today, these hard-earned gains are in danger of being reversed,” he added.

Tarique Rahman said Bangladesh is not alone in facing this risk, nor can it overcome the challenge through national efforts alone.

“This moment calls for decisive and coordinated global action to contain the impact of the ongoing energy crisis, particularly to protect vulnerable countries, including the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), from severe economic and social consequences,” he said.

He also thanked Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who delivered the concluding remarks, for convening the timely summit.

Leaders from Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Timor-Leste, Japan, and other countries took part in the online meeting.

The prime minister delivered his speech from his Sangsad Bhaban office. Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman and Foreign Affairs Adviser M Humayun Kabir were also present.

Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday ​as investors assessed prospects for renewed US–Iran talks and the potential for supply to be released from the ‌Middle East, where exports remain constrained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures were up 43 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $95.22 a barrel at 0821 GMT, after falling 4.6 percent in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 17 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $91.11. The contract dropped 7.9 percent the ​session before.

The war has mostly shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for crude and refined product flows out ​of the Gulf to global buyers, particularly in Asia and Europe.

US President Donald Trump said talks with Tehran on ending the war could resume this week after ending over the weekend without any agreement.

But the US has also ​enacted a blockade of shipping leaving Iranian ports that its military said on Wednesday has completely halted trade going in and out of the ​country by sea.

Despite a two-week ceasefire, transit through the strait remains uncertain, with traffic at only a fraction of the 130-plus daily crossings that moved through the waterway before the war, sources said on Tuesday.

“The trajectory of oil prices will likely hinge less on battlefield developments and more on diplomatic momentum. Markets are ​increasingly reacting to headlines around negotiations rather than troop deployments,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

“Each signal of renewed ​dialogue has been met with price declines, suggesting that traders are systematically unwinding the ‘war premium’ embedded into crude earlier this month.”

Refiners are desperately seeking alternative ‌crude supply, ⁠pushing up the premiums they are willing to pay for oil from areas such as the US Gulf Coast and North Sea. A cargo of WTI Midland for delivery to Rotterdam traded at a record premium of $22.80 a barrel above benchmark European prices on Tuesday.

A US destroyer stopped two oil tankers from leaving Iran on Tuesday, a US official said.

“The Strait of Hormuz is not Trump’s alone to reopen,” said SEB analyst ​Ole Hvalbye. “Iran has its own calculus, ​and the regime may find ⁠it strategically useful to keep flows restricted even after any peace deal, whether to extract reparations, guarantee security, or simply to inflict political pain ahead of the November US midterm elections.”

The market stands ​to lose some access to further supply after two US administration officials told Reuters on Tuesday the ​US will not renew ⁠a 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea that expires this week, and quietly let a similar waiver on sanctions on Russian oil expire over the weekend.

Later in the day, markets will be watching for official US inventory data from the Energy Information Administration, due ⁠at 10:30 ​a.m. ET (1430 GMT).

US crude oil stockpiles were expected to have risen slightly last ​week, while distillate and gasoline inventories likely fell, a Reuters poll showed.

Market sources familiar with American Petroleum Institute figures said on Tuesday US crude oil inventories jumped for a third ​straight week.

President Donald Trump's administration plans to launch next Monday the system it will use for issuing refunds to American importers for $166 billion the companies paid in tariffs that ‌the U.S. Supreme Court struck down in February as unlawful.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection said in a court filing on Tuesday that it has completed the development of the initial phase of the refund system, known as CAPE. The system will consolidate refunds so importers will receive one electronic payment, with interest when applicable, rather than processing refunds on an entry-by-entry basis.

Agency official ⁠Brandon Lord made the declaration in the filing with the New York-based Court of International Trade. The agency disclosed the CAPE launch date in a separate announcement on Friday.

The Supreme Court ruled that Trump overstepped his authority in imposing sweeping global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 law meant for use in national emergencies.

Tuesday's filing said that as of April 9 some 56,497 importers had completed the process to receive electronic refunds for tariffs affected by the court's ruling, an amount totaling $127 billion.

The agency has said it plans to roll out the refund system in ‌phases.

Lord ⁠said in his declaration that the agency is considering options for processing refunds on a subset of entries that were subject to $2.9 billion in tariffs. Lord said these normally would require manual processing, which would dramatically increase the workload and divert personnel from the agency's trade operations and enforcement.

After the Supreme Court's decision, ⁠importers sued for refunds in the Court of International Trade, which is monitoring the development of the refund system.

More than 330,000 importers paid the tariffs at issue on 53 million shipments of imported goods, according to court ⁠documents.

Customs and Border Protection has said the CAPE system will initially process refunds on recently imported goods and straightforward entries.

Many smaller importers feared the cost of the refund process would outweigh the ⁠benefits of trying to get reimbursed, forcing some companies to explore creative financing options related to refunds.

Trump denounced the Supreme Court after its ruling and imposed a new temporary global tariff under a different law, though that also has been challenged in court.

Bangladesh is unlikely to get US$1.3 billion, due in two tranches, within this fiscal year from the $5.5-billion credit programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), finance officials say.

The uncertainty has been created as the IMF is showing less interest in sending a review team now since many of the conditions binding the loan package remained unmet now, they add.

"Unless the finance minister and his team, who are now in Washington to attend spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, can convince the IMF bosses to send a review mission now, the possibility to get the two installments of the loan is very bleak," a senior finance division official told the FE Wednesday.Investment Advisory Service

Sensing the IMF's stance regarding the loan disbursement, sources say, the finance division officials have suggested finance minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury seek an additional $2.0 billion as emergency assistance from the IMF and the World Bank to offset the deficit created due to the crisis in the Middle East.

Mr Chowdhury on April 13 had separate meetings with IMF Executive Director Urjit Patel and World Bank Vice-President for South Asia John Jutt where he reportedly secured commitment from them for additional financing under the IMF's existing lending recipe.

However, after the meeting, the minister did not say any word to waiting journalists as to whether the due tranches under the credit programme will be available in time or not.

According to the finance officials, a number of conditions under the original $4.7-billion loan programme, which was later extended to $5.5 billion, remained unfulfilled, which forced the IMF to take decision to delay the release.

The IMF this January, after conclusion of Article IV Consultation with Bangladesh, said: "Weak revenue mobilisation, banking-sector vulnerabilities, incomplete implementation of the new exchange-rate framework, and elevated inflation are weighing on macroeconomic stability and growth prospects."Financial Daily Subscription

The IMF board of directors also observed an uneven programme performance and emphasised that decisive and sustained policy actions and bold reforms were needed to restore macroeconomic and financial stability and support the country's long-term development goals.

"The performance criterion on government revenue collection was missed by a wide margin. The authorities have yet to adopt a high-level reform strategy for restoring banking-sector stability, as was agreed at the 3rd and 4th combined review," it said.

Also, the IMF said Bangladesh Bank would need to adjust its forex-intervention practices to meet conditionality on the exchange-rate arrangement. "While the primary deficit target was met, this was achieved through significant cuts in capital and social spending."

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman said today (15 April) Bangladesh is seeking a $2 billion fund from development partners to help overcome the energy crisis and stabilise the economy

"The situation before us demands urgency, solidarity and decisive action," he said while addressing the Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) Plus Online Summit.

The prime minister said immediate support for the most vulnerable countries must be at the top of the collective agenda of the summit.

"In this regard, Bangladesh is seeking to mobilise $2 billion from development partners to meet our immediate energy needs and safeguard our economic stability. We urge the international community to respond swiftly and positively to this call," he said.

The prime minister said the current global energy crisis is a stark reminder of global communities' shared vulnerability and interdependence.

No nation – regardless of its size or strength – can overcome this challenge in isolation, he said, adding that it demands a coordinated and forward-looking Asian response to strengthen regional energy security, address immediate supply disruptions, and support the most vulnerable countries.

"The energy crisis has already disrupted Bangladesh's economy. In response, we have taken a range of short-term measures to contain the impact," Tarique said.

He said the measures include demand-side management through the rationing of government office and market hours; stabilisation of fuel supplies through emergency imports and diversification of sourcing; and consumption controls, including fuel rationing and limits on retail sales to prevent hoarding and panic buying through initiatives such as 'Fuel App'.

The prime minister said Bangladesh is concerned that the scale and consequences of this crisis could exceed those of the 1970's oil shock, which triggered a decade of stalled development in the 1980s.

Since gaining independence in 1971, he said Bangladesh has worked relentlessly to drive economic growth, lift millions out of poverty, and improve the quality of life for its people. "Today, these hard-earned gains are in danger, facing the real threat of reversal."

The prime minister said Bangladesh is not alone in facing this risk, nor can the country overcome it through national effort alone.

"This moment calls for a decisive and coordinated global action, to contain the impact of the ongoing energy crisis, particularly to protect vulnerable countries, including the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), from its severe economic and social impact," he said.

Tarique Rahman appreciated Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for convening this timely and important Summit.

Tarique Rahman addressed the AZEC Plus Online Summit from his Bangladesh Parliament Secretariat office.

Bangladesh Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman and PM's Foreign Affairs Adviser Humayun Kabir were present.

Heads of state and governments of various countries, including Prime Minister of Japan Sanae Takaichi, also virtually spoke on the occasion.

Heads of the government and the representatives of different countries, including India, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Timor-Leste, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Australia, Brunei, Cambodia and Indonesia, participated in the online summit.

The organisations from which representatives joined the session are International Energy Agency (IEA) and Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised Bangladesh to withdraw all forms of tax exemptions, covering income tax, value-added tax (VAT), and customs duties, starting from the next national budget (FY2026-27).

Alongside ending tax exemptions, the IMF has also pressed for the reduction of supplementary duties imposed at the import stage.

The recommendation was raised during discussions at the Annual and Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group held in Washington, DC, sources at the National Board of Revenue (NBR) said.

A senior NBR official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Business Standard, "At the ongoing meetings, the IMF asked that all types of tax expenditure be withdrawn."

Another Bangladeshi representative in Washington said the IMF was urging the government to withdraw a large share of tax exemptions in the upcoming budget.

An official from the Bangladeshi delegation attending the IMF board meetings told TBS, requesting anonymity, that the lender had taken a positive stance on Bangladesh's request for additional budget support to help meet rising fuel import costs.

However, the size of the potential new loan and its conditions have yet to be finalised.

The official said the Bangladeshi delegation, led by Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, held separate meetings with IMF officials seeking the release of about $1.53 billion by June, including overdue instalments under the existing loan programme as well as fresh financing.

"During the discussions, the IMF maintained a firm position on implementing two key conditions of the main loan agreement," the official said.

"The conditions include cancelling all tax exemptions alongside tariff rationalisation, and withdrawing energy subsidies for gas and electricity while bringing low-income groups under social safety net programmes. If these conditions are implemented, the IMF is ready to release the funds within the current fiscal year," the official added.

The official added that the IMF also reiterated its call for Bangladesh to move towards a fully market-based exchange rate.

Officials from the Bangladesh Bank told the IMF that the country intends to gradually move towards a fully market-driven exchange rate in order to maintain economic stability.

The meetings, which began on 13 April, are scheduled to conclude on 18 April. Senior officials from the finance ministry are attending alongside NBR chairman Abdur Rahman Khan.

Wide range of exemptions currently in place

The government currently provides VAT, tax and import duty exemptions on most agricultural and food products. Some goods also enjoy partial exemptions.

Essential services such as education and healthcare also benefit from tax relief. Exemptions are also available for certain essential sectors, including fuel and electricity.

In addition, to encourage investment and job creation, the government offers income tax, VAT and customs duty exemptions for investors in export processing zones, economic zones and hi-tech parks. Export-oriented industries also receive tax incentives.

Remittances are fully exempt from tax to encourage overseas earnings. Bangladesh received more than $30 billion in remittances in the 2024-25 fiscal year, while export earnings stood at nearly $50 billion.

Tax exemptions – defined as the difference between standard tax or VAT rates and the amount actually collected due to concessions – represent a large fiscal cost.

According to the latest data from the NBR, tax exemptions in income tax, VAT, and customs duties amounted to about Tk2.66 lakh crore in the 2022-23 fiscal year. In comparison, total government revenue collection in that year stood at Tk3.25 lakh crore.

In 2022, during the tenure of the Awami League government, Bangladesh secured a $4.7 billion loan programme from the IMF. Of this amount, roughly $3 billion has already been disbursed in instalments.

However, the lender later suspended further disbursements toward the end of the interim government's tenure, citing slow progress in implementing reform measures under the programme.

Negotiations over the release of remaining funds resumed after a new government led by the BNP took office.

Experts warn against abrupt withdrawal

Economists say that while reducing tax exemptions is necessary, eliminating them entirely may not be feasible in the short term.

They warn that withdrawing exemptions across the board in line with IMF recommendations could increase tax burdens in several sectors. This could affect both wealthy and low-income groups directly and indirectly, potentially fuelling inflation.

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said removing all exemptions within a year would not be reasonable.

He warned that such a move could undermine the confidence of both local and foreign investors in government policy.

"The government should plan to withdraw these benefits through sunset clauses, which the NBR has already begun implementing," he said. "However, the entire exemption framework should first be reviewed before decisions are made."

Mustafizur noted that some sectors have enjoyed tax exemptions and incentives for more than 50 years.

"In some cases, individuals or groups have obtained exemptions through influence. These should not continue indefinitely," he said, adding that exemptions should be streamlined by lowering tax or VAT rates.

Towfiqul Islam Khan, an additional director at CPD, said the government needs stronger fiscal discipline and should align incentives with the country's graduation plan from the UN's least developed country status.

"Tax exemptions should be reduced gradually and according to a clear plan, particularly in sectors such as poultry, fisheries, agriculture and remittances," he said. "The principle should be simple – those who earn should pay tax."

Risks of abrupt policy shifts

Snehasish Barua, managing director of SMAC Advisory Limited, warned that an abrupt withdrawal of tax exemptions could trigger economic shocks.

"The sudden withdrawal of tax exemptions risks triggering an acute macroeconomic shock. Such an abrupt policy shift could destabilise capital markets, cripple RMG export competitiveness and fuel immediate cost-push inflation," he told The Business Standard.

"Moreover, it threatens to deter foreign direct investment, stifle the burgeoning digital economy and spark widespread corporate compliance crises."

He added that investors allocate capital based on established statutory frameworks and that removing incentives without a transition period could erode trust in fiscal policy.

"To navigate this necessary reform, a phased and predictable transition is vital. The government must rigorously audit all active tax exemptions to guarantee they deliver tangible strategic value," he said. "Moving forward, every tax expenditure must be tied to specific, measurable criteria, undergo stringent annual reviews and be bound by a mandatory sunset clause."

Govt signals shift in approach

While indicating a move away from the blanket tax exemptions granted by previous governments, the new administration has said it plans to introduce performance-based incentives.

Speaking to reporters after a meeting at the NBR on 29 March, the prime minister's adviser on finance and planning, Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, said, "The target would be met by accelerating economic activity through higher investment and employment, alongside structural and policy reforms; curbing tax evasion and fraud; and shifting from blanket tax exemptions and rebates to performance-based incentives."

According to NBR data, VAT exemptions currently apply to several products and raw materials under 53 different categories, most of which involve agricultural and food items.

Nine essential services related to basic needs – including social welfare, cultural activities, financial services, transport services and certain personal services – are also fully exempt from VAT.

The standard VAT rate currently stands at 15%.

Under the third schedule of the VAT law, reduced VAT rates are applied at different stages of production and supply for several goods.

At the import stage, many goods and services face substantial supplementary duties, in some cases reaching as high as 500%.

Experts say such high supplementary duties create uneven competition in the market and increase costs for consumers. The IMF has also urged Bangladesh to reduce these duties and make the tariff structure more rational.

The government does not want to dictate the Bangladesh Bank’s actions under any circumstances, said Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, the prime minister’s adviser on finance and planning.

“We do not want to dictate the central bank’s actions in any way. Our approach is to ensure coordination between fiscal and monetary policy,” he said.

“The central bank will listen to stakeholders, including you (businesses), and take appropriate actions independently.”

Titumir made the remarks yesterday at a discussion on synergising the banking sector from the lender and borrower perspectives, organised by the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) in the capital.

He stressed that reviving closed industries and expanding existing ones would be key to restoring economic momentum.

“Reviving closed factories is fundamental. This is how we bring dynamism back into the economy and generate employment,” he said.

Regarding efforts to tame inflation, Titumir said that the government is prioritising the people’s interests.

During the Ukraine war, despite fluctuations in global gas prices, the previous (Awami League) government repeatedly raised fuel prices, he said, shifting the burden onto citizens amid what he described as economic mismanagement and capital flight.

However, with a strong public mandate, the present government is prioritising easing pressure on people’s livelihoods, Titumir claimed, which is why fuel prices have not been increased despite external pressures.

Speaking on the upcoming national budget, he said the government is preparing a set of measures aimed at supporting micro, small, and medium enterprises (SMEs), which remain central to employment generation.

“These measures may include stimulus support, tax reforms, and the creation of joint financing funds,” he said.

DCCI President Taskeen Ahmed said the country’s industrial sector is going through a highly challenging period due to the prolonged absence of a business-friendly environment.

“There are several reasons for this, including declining production, rising outstanding loans in the industrial sector, a high rate of non-performing loans, reduced credit flow to the private sector despite no liquidity shortage, and increased government borrowing from the banking sector,” he said.

To address the situation, he stressed the need for structural reforms in the banking sector to ensure stability and good governance, as well as strengthening coordination between the banking and private sectors.

Ahmed said that the public sector credit growth has surged to an unprecedented 26.15 percent. Meanwhile, government borrowing from the banking system reached Tk 73,035 crore during the July-January period, a 673 percent increase compared to the same period last year, indicating that banks are increasingly prioritising risk-free lending.

“This trend has created a severe ‘credit crowding out’ effect, leaving the private sector deprived of adequate access to credit.”

He noted that many businessmen and SMEs are suffering because of a small number of wilful defaulters.

Nawshad Mustafa, director of the SME and Special Programmes Department of Bangladesh Bank, said a key challenge in the financial sector is the shortage of authentic and accurate data, which hampers effective decision-making.

He stressed the need for stronger AI-based connectivity among financial institutions and government agencies to improve data flow and policy formulation.

Abdul Hai Sarker, chairman of Bangladesh Association of Banks (BAB), said there is no alternative to simplifying SME financing, noting that private banks are now increasingly stepping in to fund the sector.

He also pointed to a lack of coordination between policymakers and stakeholders, which he said needs to be addressed.

The US military began a blockade of Iran's ports, angering Tehran and adding uncertainty around the crucial waterway, although hopes for dialogue to end the war provided some relief to ​oil markets, where benchmark prices fell below $100 on Tuesday (14 April).

After a breakdown of weekend talks in Islamabad between the two adversaries, a US official said there was continued engagement and ‌forward motion on trying to get to an agreement. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also said efforts were still underway to resolve the conflict.

US President Donald Trump said Iran had been in touch on Monday and wanted to make a deal but that he would not sanction any agreement allowing Tehran to have a nuclear weapon.

Since the United States and Israel began the war on 28 February, Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels except its own, saying passage ​would be permitted only under Iranian control and subject to a fee.

The fallout has been widespread, since nearly a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies flowed through the narrow ​waterway before the start of the conflict.

Trump has said Washington would block Iranian vessels and any ships that paid such tolls and that any Iranian "fast-attack" ships ⁠that went near the blockade would be eliminated. Tehran has threatened to hit naval ships going through the strait and to retaliate against its Gulf neighbours' ports.

Shipping data on LSEG showed Chinese-owned oil-and-chemicals tanker Rich ​Starry passed through the strait on Tuesday - the first since the US blockade began at 10am EDT (1400GMT) on Monday. The vessel, which departed Sharjah anchorage off the coast of Dubai on Monday heading for China, had ​earlier turned back minutes after approaching the strait.

The US's blockade has further clouded the outlook for global energy security and the supply of a vast array of goods that rely on petroleum, and has little, if any, international backing.

Nato allies including Britain and France said they would not be drawn into the conflict by taking part in the blockade, stressing instead the need to reopen the waterway.

Despite the breakdown of talks between the US and Iran on Sunday, Vice President JD Vance, who ​led the US delegation, told Fox News on Monday the US "made a lot of progress" by communicating to Tehran where the US "could make some accommodation" and where it would remain inflexible.

He said Trump was adamant ​that any enriched nuclear material must be removed from Iran and a mechanism must be established to verify that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons.

Tehran "moved in our direction, which is why I think we would say that we had ‌some good ⁠signs, but they didn't move far enough," Vance said, without disclosing details.

Ceasefire under strain

The ceasefire that halted six weeks of US-Israeli airstrikes and retaliatory fire from Iran across the Gulf looked in jeopardy, with only a week left to run.

The US military's Central Command said the blockade would be "enforced impartially against vessels of all nations" entering or leaving Iranian ports in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman. It would not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations, it said in a note to seafarers seen by Reuters.

An Iranian military spokesperson called any US restrictions on international shipping "piracy," warning that if Iranian ports were threatened, ​no port in the Gulf or Gulf of ​Oman would be secure. Any military vessels approaching ⁠the strait would violate the ceasefire, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said.

Trump said Iran's navy had been "completely obliterated" during the war, adding that only a small number of "fast-attack ships" remained.

"Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against ​the drug dealers on boats at Sea. It is quick and brutal," Trump said on social media.

He was apparently referring to the US strikes carried ​out against suspected drug boats ⁠in the Caribbean and Pacific. The strikes, which began in September, killed more than 160 people. The US military has not provided evidence that the vessels were ferrying drugs.

Lebanon faces attacks

With the war unpopular at home and rising energy prices causing political blowback, Trump paused the US-Israeli bombing campaign last week after threatening to destroy Iran's "whole civilisation" unless it reopened the strait.

In a letter to the United Nations, Iran's UN delegation on Monday asked for reparations from ⁠Saudi Arabia, ​the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan, alleging they have allowed their territory to be used in the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Israel has ​continued to bombard Lebanon and on Monday troops launched an attack it said was intended to seize a key south Lebanon town from Iran-backed Hezbollah. The Israeli military said on Tuesday that an Israeli soldier was killed and three reservists were wounded during combat in southern Lebanon.

Israel ​and the US have said the campaign against Hezbollah was not part of the ceasefire, while Iran has insisted it is.

With Islamic banking now commanding 30% of Bangladesh's market, the shift from interest-based to asset-backed models is accelerating. Bank Asia is at the forefront, boasting a 70% deposit-investment ratio and a portfolio where Musharakah-based financing – true risk-sharing – hits 50%.

In a recent conversation with The Business Standard, the Bank's AMD ANM Mahfuz discusses the sector's trajectory and evolving strategic priorities

What is your outlook for the Islamic banking sector in the near future?

Islamic banking in Bangladesh has experienced remarkable growth since its introduction in 1983.

The sector has built deep public trust by aligning financial services with ethical and religious values.

With rising demand for Shariah-compliant products, expansion in SME and retail segments, and supportive regulatory frameworks, the outlook is highly promising.

In my view, Islamic banking will continue to increase its market share and play a transformative role in building a more inclusive, ethical and value-driven financial system.

What is driving the preference for Islamic banking over conventional banking?

Islamic banking is gaining popularity, particularly in Muslim-majority countries such as Bangladesh, primarily because it complies with Shariah principles, where interest (riba) is prohibited.

Beyond religious considerations, it is based on real economic activities involving tangible assets, unlike conventional banking, which is largely interest-based.

This asset-backed, risk-sharing approach enhances transparency and fairness. As a result, Islamic banking is increasingly regarded as a more ethical, stable and socially responsible alternative to traditional banking.

How has your bank's Islamic banking segment performed in recent years?

Bank Asia's Islamic banking segment has demonstrated strong and steady growth in recent years. The deposit–investment ratio has improved significantly, rising from around 50% to nearly 70%, indicating better fund utilisation and operational efficiency.

We remain fully committed to uncompromised Shariah compliance across all operations. A key strength of our portfolio is Musharakah-based financing, which accounts for approximately 50% of total investment, ensuring genuine risk-sharing and ethical financing.

In addition, we have built a strong presence in Sukuk investments and expanded our network from five to 15 Islamic banking windows. These achievements reflect our growing footprint and commitment to excellence in Islamic banking.

What strategies are you adopting to restore depositor confidence in Islamic banks?

Rebuilding depositor confidence in Islamic banking depends fundamentally on strict Shariah compliance and transparency.

Since its inception on 24 December 2008, Bank Asia Islamic Banking has upheld the principle of "Shuddhotai Apnar Munafa", emphasising purity and compliance in all operations.

Confidence is strengthened through a robust Shariah Supervisory Committee, regular Shariah audits and monitoring, skilled Islamic banking professionals, and transparent communication regarding fund utilisation and profit generation.

What opportunities exist to develop the Islamic bond market to support business capital-raising?

The Sukuk market offers significant opportunities for raising Shariah-compliant capital.

Globally, it has grown rapidly, particularly in countries such as Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. In Bangladesh, Sukuk issuance has already laid a strong foundation for further market expansion.

Sukuk can play a crucial role in financing infrastructure, supporting corporate growth, and attracting both individual and institutional investors, including non-resident Bangladeshis.

With appropriate regulatory support, Sukuk can become a key instrument for sustainable and ethical financing, aligning economic growth with social and environmental objectives.

What regulatory support is needed to diversify Islamic banking products?

To diversify Islamic banking products, strong regulatory support is essential.

This includes clear Shariah-compliant guidelines for products such as Sukuk, Takaful and structured investments, tax neutrality for Islamic financial contracts, standardised profit-sharing frameworks, and the development of secondary markets for Islamic instruments.

There is also a need for Shariah-compliant liquidity and risk management tools. Furthermore, promoting fintech integration, innovation and professional training will strengthen the overall ecosystem.

How can Islamic banking products be leveraged to attract NRBs?

Islamic banking products provide a strong platform to attract non-resident Bangladeshis (NRBs). Shariah-compliant options such as Mudarabah deposits, Sukuk investments and Islamic savings schemes offer halal and ethical returns.

Transparent profit-sharing, asset-backed investments and digital banking facilities enhance trust and accessibility, while remittance-linked Islamic accounts simplify fund transfers.

These initiatives can boost foreign currency inflows and strengthen diaspora engagement in Bangladesh's economic development.

How can Islamic banking contribute to sustainable growth and financial inclusion?

Profit-and-loss sharing models such as Mudarabah and Musharakah support SMEs, agriculture and infrastructure, driving job creation and economic development.

Financial inclusion is further enhanced through microfinance, micro-Takaful and Shariah-compliant savings products targeting underserved populations.

In addition, instruments such as green Sukuk finance environmentally sustainable projects.

By combining ethical finance with inclusivity, Islamic banking contributes to long-term economic stability and social equity.

The capital market in Bangladesh faces persistent problems with trust. IPO fraud and manipulation continue despite reforms, undermining investor confidence and impeding economic growth. Long-term stability and national development are at stake.

The nation has learned painful lessons. An estimated $27 billion in market value—roughly 22 percent of GDP at the time—was destroyed by the crashes of 1996 and, more catastrophically, 2010–2011. Millions of investors suffered losses, leaving social repercussions that still shape public perception of the stock market. The same structural flaws remain more than a decade later.

Recent enforcement data highlight the severity. The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) fined individuals nearly Tk 1,488 crore in the past 18 months for manipulation and misconduct. Yet only a fraction has been recovered due to lengthy legal battles. This gap between punishment and accountability sends the wrong signal: wrongdoing is costly on paper but not in practice.

Systemic weaknesses drive these failures—coordinated trading through omnibus accounts, abuse of placement shares, diversion of IPO proceeds, and lack of real-time surveillance. Bangladesh’s market capitalization remains low, around 6 percent of GDP in mid-2025, compared to over 100 percent in deeper, better-run markets. This underdevelopment hampers financing for infrastructure, SMEs, and industrial growth—key to Vision 2041 and the “Smart Bangladesh” agenda.

Globally, fraud persists but is increasingly managed with technology. Scandals like Enron and Madoff spurred regulators to adopt AI for real-time surveillance. Exchanges are also testing blockchain-based settlement systems that are faster, cheaper, and more transparent. Emerging economies such as India and Brazil have embraced digital reforms, strengthening disclosure, monitoring, and enforcement.

Bangladesh, however, still relies on manual oversight and fragmented data. In an era of cyber-enabled scams, this is insufficient. For a small, fragile market, each crisis inflicts disproportionate damage and deters investors. Modern technology offers a transformative opportunity.

Blockchain can fundamentally change IPOs and securities transactions. In a permissioned blockchain, every transaction is permanently recorded, time-stamped, and visible to authorized participants. Smart contracts can automate IPO rules—ensuring funds are released only when verified conditions are met, allocations follow transparent logic, and lock-up periods cannot be bypassed. Immutable records eliminate manipulation.

AI complements this as a real-time watchdog. It can analyze trading patterns, detect unusual movements, and identify coordinated networks far faster than traditional monitoring. Leading exchanges report fewer false alarms and quicker enforcement after adopting AI-driven systems.

Together, blockchain and AI create a powerful regulatory architecture: blockchain ensures data integrity, AI provides intelligence and early warning. Such systems could flag suspicious IPO activity, trigger halts during abnormal behaviour, and deliver regulators immediate, evidence-based alerts. Privacy-preserving technologies safeguard data.

For Bangladesh, implementation can be phased. Pilot IPOs integrated with the central securities depository would allow testing and scaling. International experience shows such reforms reduce fraud risk, shorten settlement cycles, improve liquidity, and restore confidence.

A regulatory sandbox led by BSEC, with Bangladesh Bank, could test blockchain-based e-IPO systems and AI surveillance. Capacity building is vital—training regulators, auditors, and intermediaries to oversee data-driven systems. Collaboration among exchanges, the depository, banks, and technology providers will be essential.

Implementation should begin with targeted pilots: blockchain-enabled IPOs and AI surveillance in the secondary market, before scaling. This gradual approach limits disruption while signaling decisive reform.

Bangladesh is well-positioned to leapfrog. High mobile penetration, a young tech-savvy population, and strong policy backing under the Smart Bangladesh Master Plan provide a solid foundation. While advanced economies refined systems over decades, late adopters can now deploy mature technologies quickly.

The cost of inaction is clear: repeated scandals will cap growth, deter foreign investment, and push savings into informal channels. The benefits of action are equally clear: a transparent market that channels savings into productive investment, lowers risk premiums, and supports sustainable transformation.

Fraud is not inevitable—it is a governance problem that can be solved. By adopting blockchain and AI as core regulatory tools now, Bangladesh can protect investors, strengthen institutions, and become a regional leader in financial innovation. Decisive reform today will yield economic, social, and strategic dividends for decades.

Pragati Insurance has recommended a 27% cash dividend and a 3% stock dividend for the year ended 31 December 2025, reflecting a continued effort to reward shareholders while strengthening its capital base.

In the previous year, the insurer paid 20% cash and 7% stock dividend for their shareholders.

According to a disclosure on the stock exchange yesterday, the company will hold its Annual General Meeting on 18 June 2026 via a digital platform. For this, the record date has been fixed for 12 May 2026.

Despite this declaration, the share price of the company decreased yesterday by 2.61% to Tk71 on the Dhaka stock exchange.

End of December 2025, the company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of Tk5.31, marking a slight increase from Tk5.24 in the previous year.

The net asset value (NAV) per share also improved to Tk57.36, compared to Tk53.82 a year earlier, indicating a stronger asset base.

However, net operating cash flow per share declined significantly to Tk1.44 from Tk3.13 in 2024, suggesting a reduction in cash generation from core business operations despite improved profitability.

The company explained that the declaration of bonus shares aims to increase its paid-up capital, which is expected to enhance its financial strength and support expansion.

It further clarified that the stock dividend has been declared from retained earnings, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements.

The company also said that the bonus shares have not been issued from capital reserves, revaluation reserves, or any unrealised gains. Additionally, the retained earnings will remain positive after the dividend distribution, avoiding any negative balance.

The primary objectives of the company are to carry on all kinds of non-life insurance business. The company's non-life insurance products include fire and allied perils insurance, marine cargo and hull insurance, aviation insurance, automobile insurance and miscellaneous insurance.

Market analysts said that while the steady growth in EPS and NAV signals operational stability, the sharp decline in cash flow may raise concerns among investors regarding liquidity and sustainability of earnings.

They suggest investors closely monitor the company's future cash flow trends.

Bangladesh's Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) sector is witnessing a sharp decline in activity, with production down by as much as 30% in recent weeks amid the global energy crisis, rising raw material costs, and frequent load-shedding.

Mirza Nurul Ghani Shovon, President of the National Association of Small and Cottage Industries of Bangladesh (NASCIB), told The Business Standard that the situation is becoming untenable for many small-scale manufacturers.

"The energy crisis has pushed many institutions to the brink of closure. In many cases, production has already dwindled by 25% to 30%," Shovon said.

He noted that without a stable power supply, factories are unable to meet their production target, leading to a massive drop in output across the board.

The sector, which contributes over 28% to the national GDP and employs roughly three crore people, is currently navigating its toughest period since the pandemic.

The leather and chemical-dependent sectors are among the hardest hit. Ilias Hossain, the proprietor of Rajex Leather, revealed that essential production components have become extremely expensive.

"The price of chemicals used in leather processing has doubled, and in some cases, even tripled," Ilias claimed.

He added that the cost of imported raw materials from China – such as gum and pasting – has surged due to global supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. "When raw materials cost this much, the price of every finished product, from belts to footwear, must go up, which then kills consumer demand."

While production is dwindling, sales are also being stifled by operational restrictions. Shofiqul Islam, owner of Topex Leather, pointed out that the government-mandated early closing of shops to save electricity has put businesses in a tight spot.

"We are forced to wind down by 7pm or 8pm. But our primary customers, specially service holders, usually come to shop after their office hours in the evening. Our wholesale and retail sales are taking a massive hit," Shofiqul explained.

Monoranjan Sarker Noyon, proprietor of Manikganj-based Noyon Handicrafts, told TBS that the current economic climate has forced a significant reduction in corporate and wholesale orders.

"Our production hasn't been hit significantly yet, but our orders have definitely decreased," Noyon said, noting that even long-term regular clients are unable to maintain their usual purchase volumes as consumer demand falters at the retail level.

Anwar Hossain Chowdhury, managing director of SME Foundation, echoed these concerns, stating that the impact on marginal and rural entrepreneurs is particularly severe.

"The supply chain is broken. Production and marketing are both suffering a negative impact that is easily predictable and deeply concerning," he added.

Despite the challenges, some niche sectors like handmade crafts remain resilient. Jannatul Ferdous, founder of Bhumi Artisan, noted that while her production isn't fuel-dependent, the overall economic slowdown might eventually weigh on even the most specialised markets.

To prevent a total collapse of the sector, industry leaders are calling for immediate government intervention.

"The banks have moved away from single-digit interest rates and returned to higher tiers," Shovon of NASCIB remarked.

"With production down by 30% and costs rising, these high interest rates will finish us off. The government must ensure a return to single digit interest rate to keep the SME economy alive," he said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today (14 April) projected that Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 4.7% in the current fiscal year (FY26), before slowing to 4.3% in FY27.

The FY26 growth forecast remains unchanged from the IMF's January projection.

Bangladesh's inflation is now expected to rise to 9.2% in FY26, higher than the earlier estimate of 8.9%.

However, the global lender projects inflation to decline sharply to 6% in FY27.

Meanwhile, the government has set a provisional target of 6.5% GDP growth for the next fiscal year, aiming to return to a high-growth trajectory as part of its ambition to build a trillion-dollar economy by 2034.

The government is also targeting an inflation rate of 7.5% in FY27, which is higher than the IMF's projection.

The IMF's growth outlook is more optimistic than forecasts by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, both of which released their projections earlier this month.

On 8 April, the World Bank expected the country's economy to grow by 3.9% in the current fiscal year, before rising to 4.6% in FY27.

The World Bank warned that Bangladesh's economy faces significant challenges with slowing growth and rising poverty for three consecutive years, persistent inflation, a stressed banking sector, weak revenue mobilisation, and subdued private investment, which is further compounded by the headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, on 10 April, Asian Development Bank's latest Asian Development Outlook April 2026 forecasted Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 4% in FY26 and 4.7% in FY27, up from 3.5% in FY25.

Inflation is projected to remain elevated at 9% in FY26, despite some easing, reflecting persistently high global energy prices and ongoing supply disruptions. It is expected to moderate to 8.5% in FY27 as external shocks subside and domestic supply conditions improve, reads the ADB report.

It was warned that the downside to the outlook remains substantial, particularly if the conflict is prolonged.

Disruptions to global energy markets, shipping routes, and supply chains could drive sustained increases in oil and gas prices, intensifying domestic inflationary pressures and complicating ongoing disinflation efforts, thereby constraining macroeconomic policy flexibility.

While the World Bank and Asian Development Bank had lowered Bangladesh’s GDP growth forecast due to the Persian Gulf crisis and domestic vulnerabilities, the International Monetary Fund has kept its earlier projection unchanged.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects Bangladesh’s GDP growth at 4.7 percent for FY2025–26, which was the same as its earlier projection from January.

However, IMF's growth projection is set to dip further to 4.3 percent in the next fiscal.

The World Bank revised its projection down to 3.9 percent growth from 4.6, while the ADB revised its forecast down to 4 percent from its previous projection of 4.7 percent.

Former World Bank Lead Economist Zahid Hussain told The Daily Star that the IMF’s forecast “appears rather strange,” adding that “it is the same as projected in their Article IV report released in January 2026".

The absence of any impact of the war in the current fiscal year is inconsistent with their own assumption that economies with vulnerabilities and limited buffers are likely to be hit hardest. Bangladesh is one such economy.

He also said individuals and firms in Bangladesh have been living with the growth and inflation impact ever since the war started. There is no reason in fact or logic to believe Bangladesh will remain insulated from the impact of the war for four months.

Hussain notes that the IMF’s 4.3% growth projection for FY27 is more realistic if its reference scenario, in which the war shock fades by June, materialises.

The government, however, remains confident, insisting that GDP growth will reach 5 percent in 2026.

A ship named 'MT Great Princess' arrived at Chattogram Port carrying 12,000 tonnes of jet fuel from Singapore this morning (14 April).

The cargo was supplied by Indian Oil Corporation Limited.

Two more ships, 'MT Term Damini' and 'MT Lucia Solis', are expected to arrive tonight with a total of around 68,000 tonnes of diesel.

As of 12 April, Bangladesh had an estimated stock of 22,000 tonnes of jet fuel, which can meet the demand for about two weeks.

The recent consignment has slightly increased the stock. Jet fuel consumption has been relatively low, with 21,000 tonnes sold in the first 12 days of the month, averaging 1,758 tonnes per day, slightly higher than last year.

Diesel consumption is significant in Bangladesh, accounting for about 63% of total energy consumption. The arrival of the two diesel-carrying ships tonight will further contribute to the country's energy supply.

The demand for diesel is high across various sectors such as transport, agriculture, industry, and power. In April, the total demand is around four lakh tonnes according to BPC.

To meet this demand, a detailed import plan has been implemented throughout the month.

At the beginning of April, two ships delivered a total of 61,000 tonnes of diesel on 12 April. Despite this, the demand pressure has not completely eased. Between 1 and 12 April, 133,000 tonnes of diesel were sold at an average daily rate of 11,138 tonnes.

As of 12 April, the available diesel stock was approximately 119,000 tonnes, which could cover the demand for about 10 days.

With the addition of two new shipments, the stock may last a few more days, but the long-term relief depends on continuous imports.

Currently, over 11,000 tonnes of diesel are being sold daily in the country.

BPC Chairman Md Rezanur Rahman told journalists that efforts are being made to source fuel from alternative suppliers to prevent any major crisis this month.

He mentioned that several ships have already arrived, and more are expected to come to ensure an adequate fuel supply.