Gold prices have increased again in the country, with the rate of 22-carat gold rising by Tk3,324 per bhori (11.664 grams), the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus) said today (3 March).

Following the latest adjustment, the price of 22-carat gold has been fixed at Tk2,77,428 per bhori, according to a notification issued by Bajus.

Bajus said the new rate had been determined in view of an increase in the price of pure gold (tejabi gold) in the local market and the overall market situation.

Under the revised pricing structure, 21-carat gold will cost Tk2,64,773 per bhori, while 18-carat gold has been set at Tk2,26,981 per bhori.

The price of gold produced under the traditional method has been fixed at Tk1,85,749 per bhori.

The last adjustment had come yesterday, when Bajus raised the price of 22-carat gold by Tk5,424 per bhori to Tk2,74,104.

So far in 2026, gold prices have been adjusted 36 times in the domestic market, raised on 24 occasions and reduced 12 times.

Despite the hike in gold prices, silver rates remain unchanged.

Currently, 22-carat silver is being sold at Tk7,173 per bhori.

In 2026, silver prices have been adjusted 21 times, with rates increased 14 times and reduced seven times.

Bangladesh's power plants and factories risk fuel shortages within days after QatarEnergy invoked force majeure on its long-term LNG contract, forcing Petrobangla to scramble for costly spot cargoes in an increasingly strained global market.

QatarEnergy, the world's largest LNG producer and Bangladesh's biggest supplier, halted production following an Iranian attack earlier this week. Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has instructed authorities to urgently procure LNG from the spot market to avert a nationwide energy crisis.

Officials at the Energy and Mineral Resources Division confirmed that at least four spot cargoes are being sought for delivery in March.

QatarEnergy's Force Majeure notice

On 2 March, QatarEnergy formally notified Petrobangla of a "potential event of Force Majeure" under Clause 17 of their agreement, citing "recent hostilities in the region." Petrobangla Chairman Md Arfanul Hoque acknowledged receipt of the letter and said contingency measures are already underway.

Under the contract, QatarEnergy was scheduled to deliver 40 of Bangladesh's 115 planned LNG cargoes this year. With supplies now uncertain, Petrobangla fears a sweeping gas shortage that could disrupt power generation, industrial output, exports, and daily life.

Other long-term suppliers including QatarEnergy Trading LLC, OQ Trading Ltd, and Excelerate Gas Marketing Limited may also face disruptions due to their reliance on Qatari supply, though trading firms could have limited flexibility to source alternatives.

A force majeure clause excuses liability for non-performance during certain unforeseeable, uncontrollable, and exceptional events like natural disasters, wars, or pandemics.

QatarEnergy supplies around 20% of the world's seaborne LNG.

Scramble for alternatives

Policymakers warn that if such a major supplier dries up, securing cargoes from elsewhere will become increasingly difficult due to tightening global supply.

The QatarEnergy letter states, "While the Seller is still assessing the situation, it considers it important to inform the Buyer that these circumstances may prevent it from performing its delivery obligations under the Agreement."

It added, "We will keep you updated as the situation evolves and provide further information when it becomes available."

Immediately after receiving the notice, Petrobangla wrote back to QatarEnergy seeking clarification on whether deliveries would continue, as the letter used the phrase "may prevent" – leaving room for uncertainty.
PM directs LNG procurement from spot market amid Mideast crisis

Even before the production halt, LNG supply had been under pressure following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route.

According to the latest Petrobangla data, seven LNG cargoes are scheduled to arrive in March – six from QatarEnergy via the Strait of Hormuz and one from Angola.

Petrobangla has already secured four cargoes from QatarEnergy, while two remain uncertain.

"We wrote to QatarEnergy to confirm whether they would be able to supply or not by today (3 March)," Arfanul said.

Contingency plan activated

Amid uncertainty over long-term supplies, Petrobangla has activated contingency plans and on Monday called for quotations from enlisted suppliers for delivery windows on 15 and 18 March. These two windows were originally scheduled for QatarEnergy cargoes, which are now in question following the force majeure declaration.

Petrobangla has also reached out to other suppliers to confirm whether they can honour their contractual commitments, given their exposure to Qatari supply, the chairman added.

How Petrobangla plans to offset supply cut

With the oil and gas supply chain already fragile amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, concerns are deepening. US President Donald Trump has signalled that the war could drag on for another four to five weeks — a statement that sent shockwaves through global energy markets as oil and gas prices climbed.

Meanwhile, Iran's complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has left ships stranded, further complicating logistics.

Officials from the Energy Division and Petrobangla said that if hostilities persist and shipping through the Strait remains blocked, Bangladesh will have little choice but to turn to the spot market.

"We got the green light from the government to search for alternative sources like the spot market," Arfanul said. "But availability has become a major challenge following the production halt by a global giant like QatarEnergy."

Despite soaring prices, the Energy Division has instructed Petrobangla to secure spot cargoes as quickly as possible to fill the vacuum created by disrupted long-term supplies.

Before the escalation, spot LNG was trading below $9 per MMBtu. On Monday, the Asian spot LNG benchmark – the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) – surged to $13.365 per MMBtu.

If prices rise further, the burden on Bangladesh's energy import bill will aggravate.

Asked how Petrobangla would navigate prolonged high prices, the chairman struck a cautiously hopeful tone: "I hope the war will not last for months," he said. "To keep supply afloat, we have to bring LNG from the spot market. Otherwise, we will have no option but to cut supply to all sectors."

April supply also in question

Policymakers are now sounding alarm bells over April as well, fearing that the crisis may spill into the following month.

Officials say the supply chain has become increasingly fragile due to the complex geopolitical situation and the knock-on impact on QatarEnergy's output.

The Petrobangla chairman said the company has already reached out to all April suppliers seeking clarity.

"We have written to our April suppliers asking them to make their position clear regarding supply next month. They have been given time until 10 April to confirm," he said.

The chairman added that Petrobangla's next course of action will depend on their responses. "Based on their reply, we will decide our next steps, including securing additional LNG from the spot market, if necessary."

With uncertainty now stretching beyond March, energy officials fear that without timely confirmations, Bangladesh may have to rely even more heavily on high-priced spot cargoes to keep gas supply flowing.

Concerns over meeting electricity demand during Ramadan, as well as the upcoming summer and irrigation season, have intensified after two major coal-fired power plants reported fund shortages for coal imports due to unpaid subsidy arrears of Tk4,726.37 crore.

The Power Division yesterday wrote to the finance ministry warning that unless outstanding subsidy payments are released, the two largest coal-fired plants – Rampal's Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant and the Payra Power Plant – will be unable to import fuel and generate electricity.

The two plants together supply 2,400 megawatts of base-load power to the national grid. Subsidy payments have remained pending since August last year.

In the letter to Finance Secretary Dr Md Khairuzzaman Mozumder, the Power Division said that unless outstanding dues are released quickly, it will not be possible to ensure the additional electricity generation needed to meet demand during Ramadan, the irrigation season and the summer months.

"This could lead to load-shedding of 2,000–2,500 megawatts nationwide. As a result, irrigation activities will be disrupted, and public dissatisfaction may grow due to power cuts," the Power Division warned.

The developments come in the wake of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war, and Qatar – Bangladesh's main LNG supplier – announcing the shutdown of its plants.

Pending subsidy funds

The Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has requested the finance secretary to release the pending subsidy funds in line with previous practice to ensure uninterrupted electricity supply during the ongoing Ramadan, irrigation season and the upcoming summer.

Subsidy payments to the 1,320MW Rampal Power Plant and the 1,320MW Payra Power Plant – both established during the Awami League government – have been suspended since August last year, as their tariff rates have not been approved by the Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase.

Although the government has held discussions with the two companies to revise the tariff rates, BPDB has been unable to place the proposal before the purchase committee due to pending clearance from foreign lenders.

The letter, signed by Deputy Secretary Mohammad Solaiman of the Power Division, further stated that timely payment to the plants is essential to ensure uninterrupted supply during Ramadan, the irrigation season and the forthcoming summer.

According to BPDB data, approximately Tk700-800 crore in subsidies is required each month for the Rampal and Payra plants. From August 2025 to January this year, subsidy arrears for the two coal-fired plants have accumulated to Tk4,726.37 crore. Due to the delay in fund disbursement, bills of several power plants cannot be paid on time.

"Since foreign loans are involved in the two plants, clearance from the respective lenders is required for tariff revision. As such clearance has not yet been obtained, the revised tariff rate could not be placed before the Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase for approval," the letter said.

"However, discussions with lenders are ongoing, and the tariff review will be completed as soon as possible so that the revised proposal can be sent to the purchase committee," the Power Division added.

In the wake of the conflict across the Middle East following attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has directed authorities concerned to procure the necessary liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the spot market.

As per the PM's instructions, the Energy and Mineral Resources Division has taken the initiative to purchase at least four LNG cargoes from the spot market during March, sources in the division told The Business Standard today (3 March).

According to the sources, amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, the Energy and Mineral Resources Division briefed the PM today regarding the overall energy situation in both the public and private sectors.

He was informed that due to the suspension of vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz and the halt in production by QatarEnergy, there is a risk that Bangladesh may not receive LNG under its long-term contract with Qatar.

However, Oman has confirmed the delivery of two LNG cargoes under the long-term agreement this month and has also pledged to provide an additional two cargoes. Still, a minimum of eight cargoes are required for the entire month.

A senior official of the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, speaking on condition of anonymity, told TBS, "The prime minister has instructed that the necessary LNG be imported from the spot market. He has also directed Bangladesh Bank to remain prepared to make immediate payments for fuel imports."

"Additionally, Bangladesh Bank has been instructed to ensure the supply of required foreign currency for private-sector LPG imports," he said.

The official added that Petrobangla today invited tenders to import two LNG cargoes from the spot market, while tenders for the remaining two cargoes will be floated later.

Notably, the government had not planned to purchase LNG from the spot market this month, he said.

The government currently supplies between 2,600 and 2,900 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of gas daily, of which 900 to 980 mmcfd comes from imported LNG.

To meet this demand, Bangladesh imports 110 to 115 LNG cargoes annually. Of these, 60 to 70 cargoes are imported under long-term agreements with Qatar and Oman, while the rest are procured from the spot market.

According to Petrobangla data, 2,662 mmcfd of gas was supplied today, including 952 mmcfd from imported LNG.

The official further said that Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) currently has 200,000 tonnes of diesel in stock, sufficient for 14 days.

"Discussions are underway with several alternative countries to import refined fuel oil, particularly Malaysia, China and Saudi Arabia," he said.

The government has also contacted India to ensure the continuation of refined fuel oil supplies. Talks have been held with Saudi Aramco, which has assured that it will supply fuel oil from its sources outside Saudi Arabia.

According to Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) sources, as of today, the country has 201,610 tonnes of diesel, 21,705 tonnes of petrol and 34,133 tonnes of octane in stock.

Padma Oil has jet fuel reserves sufficient for 20 days' demand. As flight operations have decreased, jet fuel demand is currently lower.

Energy and Mineral Resources Division sources said private-sector importers have informed the division that letters of credit opened in February are expected to bring in 194,000 tonnes of LPG throughout March.

However, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, some LPG shipments may not arrive on time.

In response, the private sector has been advised to plan for LPG imports from alternative sources.

Business leaders have warned that unless existing public and private sector barriers to investment and exports are removed, Bangladesh will not be able to fully utilise the opportunities created by the recently signed Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan. Otherwise, they said, the agreement risks remaining only on paper.

They made the remarks at a seminar titled "Export Potential Under Bangladesh-Japan EPA: Challenges and Way Forward" organised by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) yesterday (3 March).

Dr AKM Asaduzzaman Patwary, secretary general of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI), said a study by the Japan External Trade Organization (Jetro) found that Japanese investors feel there is scope for reinvestment in Bangladesh.

"Despite that, investment has not increased significantly. Last year, only $40 million in investment came," he said.

He added, "We do not want to be complacent about the EPA. We need to identify the roadblocks and take initiatives to resolve them. If these issues are not addressed, the potential of the EPA will remain only on paper."

Mohammad Hasan Arif, vice chairman of EPB, moderated the seminar, which was attended by business leaders and experts from both countries.

Other business representatives highlighted existing challenges to expanding trade with Japan and urged prompt solutions.

Speaking to The Business Standard after the event, Dr Patwary said, "NBR- and customs-related issues, policy inconsistency and bureaucratic complexities are major obstacles to increasing Japanese investment in Bangladesh."

Maintaining product quality in line with Japanese standards is also a key challenge for exporters, speakers noted.

Other speakers echoed the importance of meeting Japanese quality standards. They said Japan offers significant export potential, but without focusing on quality, that potential cannot be realised.

Bangladesh signed the EPA with Japan on 6 February, under which around 7,379 Bangladeshi products will enjoy duty-free access to the Japanese market, while more than 1,000 Japanese products will receive duty-free access to Bangladesh in phases.

Kanchan Miah, managing director of Arot Agro, said his company exports vegetables from Bangladesh to Japan. However, due to the suspension of the direct Dhaka-Narita flight, they are facing difficulties.

He said they used to export about one tonne of vegetables per flight. They have also received orders to export mangoes, and there is potential to export carrots. But with the direct flight suspended, shipping via alternative routes is increasing costs.

He urged the government to take measures to resume the direct flight.

Business leaders also identified language barriers, technological gaps and compliance requirements as major challenges in expanding exports to Japan.

Japan is a significant market for Bangladesh's ready-made garments (RMG). Asif Ashraf, managing director of Urmi Group, a leading RMG exporter to Japan, said, "In Japan's $23 billion apparel market, we are capturing only a very small share. While there is strong demand for man-made fibre garments, we remain stronger in cotton-based products."

He said exporters must have patience to succeed in the Japanese market. "Once trust is established, they will place orders here even if prices are higher."

Tareq Rafi Bhuiyan, president of the Japan-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and Hajime Suzuki, executive officer of RX Japan Ltd, presented keynote speeches.

Hajime Suzuki, executive officer (Global Relations) of RX Japan, a major Japanese trade show and exhibition organiser, advised Bangladeshi exporters to adopt a three-year strategy to expand exports to Japan.

Global logistics and shipping giant Maersk has suspended all new cargo bookings between Bangladesh, along with three other South Asian countries, and select Gulf destinations, citing operational risks arising from the ongoing Iran crisis and wider instability in the Middle East.

"Effective immediately, we are suspending all new bookings between the Indian Subcontinent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) and the Upper Gulf markets of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia (Dammam and Jubail only)," the company said in an advisory on Monday (2 March).

The move comes as Iran said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass, Iranian media reported.

"The strait [of Hormuz] is closed. If anyone tries to pass, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze," Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander-in-chief, said in remarks carried by state media.

Maersk said it has also halted acceptance of reefer and dangerous or special cargo to and from key Gulf countries until further notice, following a fresh risk assessment.

However, it clarified that this suspension does not apply to other trade corridors.

Maersk said confirmed bookings made before the advisory will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis, while cargo already in transit remains under active management.

"Customers will be contacted directly if operational adjustments are required," it said.

Amid the US-Israeli war on Iran, several Gulf states have temporarily closed their airspace and airlines have cancelled or rerouted flights, tightening logistics capacity across sea-air corridors and potentially extending transit times.

Ahead of Eid-ul-Fitr, the government has released Tk2,500 crore under the Cash Incentive (CI) and Special Cash Incentive (SCI) schemes to meet the demand for foreign exchange in the export sector.

The funds were disbursed in two phases by the Ministry of Finance.

A senior ministry official told The Business Standard that exporters had requested the release of cash incentive funds, prompting the release of the third installment for the current fiscal year 2025-26.

On 19 February, Tk1,500 crore was released in the first phase, followed by another Tk1,000 crore yesterday.

Commercial banks will now claim the sector-wise cash incentive funds from the Bangladesh Bank, which will disburse the money according to the banks' requests.

Exporters will receive their due incentives through these commercial banks.

The government provides cash incentives for exports across 43 sectors, including domestic textiles, frozen shrimp and other fish, and leather products.

A 1% special cash incentive is also offered for ready-made garment (RMG) exports.

Incentive rates range from 0.30% to 10%, with the largest beneficiaries being the RMG and textile sectors.

Following the announcement, the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) expressed gratitude to the government for the timely release of funds ahead of Eid.

In a press release dated 3 March, BGMEA Acting Secretary Major Saiful Islam stated that BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan thanked the government's top leadership, the finance minister, the commerce minister, and the central bank governor.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has sought budget proposals from business organisations across the country as it begins preparations for the 2026-27 fiscal year budget.

In a notification issued yesterday, the revenue board said that work on the upcoming budget has already commenced.

In line with its practice in recent years, the tax authority aims to formulate a participatory, people-oriented, and equitable budget by incorporating suggestions from taxpayers at different levels, chambers of commerce, trade associations, professional bodies, research institutions, and members of the intelligentsia.

Business chambers and associations have been requested to submit their written proposals to the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) by March 15.

A soft copy of the proposals should also be sent to the NBR via email at nbrbudget2026@gmail.com.

The NBR said the initiative is intended to make revenue mobilisation more meaningful, analytical, and representative, adding that all interested stakeholders are encouraged to participate in the process.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has relaxed rules for the renewal of continuous loans, allowing banks to renew such facilities before they turn non-performing, in a move aimed at supporting businesses amid prevailing economic challenges.

The central bank issued a circular today stating that banks must initiate the renewal process at least two months before a loan’s expiry.

If renewal cannot be completed within the stipulated time due to reasons beyond control, banks may still renew the facility before it is classified as a non-performing loan (NPL), it added.

However, lenders must document the reasons for any delay in renewal.

The central bank also instructed that any excess over the approved loan limit must be adjusted before renewal.

Banks are barred from separating the excess portion to create a new loan or transferring it to another account to avoid proper classification.

The policy will remain effective until December 31, 2027. A previous circular issued in June 2025 on the same matter has been revoked.

The directive was issued under Section 45 of the Bank Company Act, 1991, and takes immediate effect.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), one of the country’s two premier bourses, suffered its steepest single-day fall in six years yesterday, as investor panic deepened over conflict in the Middle East following Iran’s warning of attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime trade routes.

The DSEX, the benchmark index of the DSE, plummeted 209 points, or 3.77 percent, to 5,325 on the day. The last time the index fell harder in a single session was on March 9, 2020, when it plunged 279 points.

The DS30, the blue-chip index, dropped 85 points, or 4 percent, to 2,050. Turnover rose 13 percent to Tk 885 crore. Among traded issues, 31 advanced, 349 declined, and 11 remained unchanged.

The declining trend extended to the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), where the CASPI, the port city bourse’s main index, dropped 414 points, or 2.6 percent, to 15,085. At the CSE, 45 stocks rose, 153 fell, and 16 remained unchanged.

“The market tumbled mainly due to panic centring on the Iran conflict,” said Kazi Monirul Islam, CEO of Shanta Asset Management.

He noted that investors had initially expected the war to be short-lived following the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, which helped the DSEX recover 72 points on Monday after shedding 139 points on the first trading day after the conflict began. Yesterday’s sharp reversal suggests that sentiment has shifted.

“Investors now realise the war will have a lasting impact on the economy. Oil and gas prices are already rising, and fears intensified further with the threat of closing the Hormuz Strait,” Islam said.

“This creates deep uncertainty among investors about the profitability of listed firms. The impact was clear on the stock market index,” he added.

The selloff was exacerbated by a sharp fall in British American Tobacco Bangladesh (BATBC), which announced its lowest dividend in nearly a decade for 2025 after its profits fell 67 percent during the year.

Islam noted that as one of the market’s largest-cap stocks, BATBC’s decline alone dragged the DSEX down by 22 points. The multinational tobacco company’s profit fell 67 percent in 2025, which contributed to a drop in its stock.

Robi Axiata, Brac Bank, Square Pharmaceuticals, Islami Bank, Beximco Pharmaceuticals, and Walton Hi-Tech Industries together contributed a further 51-point decline.

Islam also pointed to profit-booking as an additional pressure on the DSEX.

“Many investors had seen gains of 10 to 15 percent in their portfolios even though stocks remain undervalued. They are booking a profit even if they know the stocks are undervalued. This is common psychology, investors want to book profits,” he said.

Market analysts said the country’s economy is in a fragile state, making it especially vulnerable to the fallout from a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

Bangladesh sourced over 50 percent of its LNG imports, approximately 3.6 million tonnes, from Qatar and the UAE in 2025, making its energy security acutely exposed to Middle Eastern geopolitics.

BRAC Bank has promoted Md Shaheen Iqbal, CFA, and Ahmed Rashid Joy to additional managing directors (AMDs), effective from 1 March 2026.

Md Shaheen Iqbal will serve as additional managing director and head of wholesale banking. He will oversee corporate, commercial and institutional banking, transaction banking, structured finance, remittance and probashi banking, and financial institutions.

Shaheen joined BRAC Bank in 2004 and has worked across treasury and financial management, including foreign exchange, money markets, capital markets, derivatives, asset-liability management and financial institution relationships.

He completed his BSc in mechanical engineering from Bangladesh Institute of Technology, Chattogram (now CUET), and an MBA from the Institute of Business Administration (IBA), University of Dhaka. He is a CFA charterholder and a former president of CFA Society Bangladesh.

Managing Director and CEO Tareq Refat Ullah Khan said, "Shaheen Iqbal has been a cornerstone of BRAC Bank for 21 years, demonstrating unwavering commitment, leadership and excellence across multiple business functions. His strategic vision, innovation in financial products and market understanding will strengthen our wholesale banking business. In this leadership position, I am sure he will contribute to making BRAC Bank the most esteemed and preferred corporate and transaction bank in the industry."

Ahmed Rashid Joy has been promoted to additional managing director and chief risk officer. He joined BRAC Bank in October 2019 as head of credit risk management and, the bank said, has played a key role in strengthening risk governance and asset quality.

Ahmed Rashid began his banking career as a management trainee at Eastern Bank and has also worked at the International Finance Corporation (IFC), Mutual Trust Bank and IDLC Finance. He completed a master's in bank management (MBM) from the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM). The bank said he has served on several regulatory committees.

Commenting on the promotion, Khan said, "Ahmed Rashid's leadership has significantly enhanced our risk management capabilities. He has played a pivotal role in strengthening the risk management framework and driving key transformation initiatives. His technical expertise, disciplined approach and commitment to global best practices have been critical in maintaining superior portfolio quality and reinforcing our strong credit standing."

Banglalink is participating in Mobile World Congress (MWC) Barcelona 2026, held from 2–5 March 2026 in Barcelona, Spain, to engage with global industry leaders and explore the next phase of AI-led digital transformation.

Banglalink is a VEON company. VEON is a Nasdaq-listed, UAE-headquartered digital operator serving customers across five markets, including Bangladesh.

Hosted by the GSMA, MWC Barcelona 2026 is being held under the umbrella theme "The IQ Era", focusing on how artificial intelligence is reshaping networks, digital platforms and new services.

Banglalink said its officials, alongside VEON representatives, are holding bilateral meetings with global technology partners and development institutions, including the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation, to explore collaboration on digital infrastructure, financial inclusion and AI-driven innovation.

At the event, VEON Group CEO Kaan Terzioğlu delivered a keynote titled "Transforming Tomorrow's Connected World", highlighting VEON's DO1440 strategy and the need to embed digital services into daily life alongside connectivity.

Johan Buse, chief executive officer of Banglalink, said the AI era is a pivotal moment for Bangladesh's digital journey, with telecom operators evolving beyond connectivity to expand economic participation, and digital and financial inclusion.

Banglalink said it has integrated AI and machine learning into network planning and optimisation, introduced AI-enabled customer support tools, and expanded digital financial and lifestyle platforms as part of its evolution into an integrated digital services provider.

Banglalink said it has invested more than $2.5 billion in Bangladesh over the past two decades, contributed over $4 billion to the national exchequer, supported about 10,000 direct and indirect jobs, and serves more than 38 million subscribers.

An extended conflict in the Middle East after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran could trigger global stagflation -- a troublesome blend of high inflation and anaemic growth -- due to spiking oil and gas prices, economists warned.

WILL THERE BE AN OIL SHOCK?

The conflict has nearly halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of global seaborne oil passes, with several ships attacked.

Global oil prices shot higher on Monday, with the Brent crude international reference oil contract up nearly nine percent at $79.30 per barrel at 1410 GMT.

It briefly surpassed $80 per barrel earlier in the day, and was up considerably from the $61 per barrel at the start of the year.

Economist Sylvain Bersinger said the war risks “creating a third oil shock after those in 1973 and 1979 and the 2022 gas shock”.

Europe’s benchmark gas price shot more than 50 percent higher on Monday.

He said the price of oil could rise to $110 per barrel, but added that was no longer exceptional as oil prices had risen over $140 in 2008 and were above $100 in the 2010s.

Adam Hetts at asset manager Janus Henderson said that while oil prices would certainly rise, the increase should remain “at reasonable levels”.

WHAT IMPACT ON GLOBAL TRADE?

The conflict could act as a shock to trade “at the worst possible moment”, said economists at ING bank.

The global trading system is already under stress from US President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive as well as the fragmentation of supply chains since Covid and the war in Ukraine.

Moreover the closure of the Gulf airspace is disrupting aviation between European and Asia, they noted.

For Ruben Nizard, head of political risk research at Coface, a trade credit insurance company, this crisis could also “throw another wrench into the works by driving up maritime freight costs” and pushing up inflation.

“At the global level, this would open the door to an economic scenario of stagflation,” he added, referring to a situation with high inflation and weak or non-existent growth.

WHAT IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY?

According to economists at Natixis bank, a prolonged disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz “would have major implications for markets, but also for inflation dynamics and overall economic stability”.

They added that “China would be particularly affected by this war.”

Cyrille Poirier-Coutansais, director of the research department at the French Navy’s Centre for Strategic Studies, agreed that China is particularly dependent upon oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The question is whether there will be enough fuel to keep the world’s factory running,” he told AFP.

For the economist Sylvain Bersinger the impact on Europe will likely be less than the 2022 gas shock, which would help France in particular to avoid a recession.

In a sign of declining investor confidence, the interest rate on European sovereign bonds climbed on Monday.

The yield on 10-year German government bonds, the benchmark in the eurozone, stood at 2.70 percent in afternoon trading, compared with 2.64 percent on Friday.

WHAT RISKS IN A LONG WAR?

The intensity and duration of the conflict will be key in determining its impact.

“In a prolonged conflict, the combination of higher energy costs, disrupted logistics, and a generalised confidence shock would constitute a meaningful drag on global trade volumes at precisely the moment the world economy was still digesting the inflationary and growth consequences of the tariff shock,” said economists at ING bank.

Coface’s Nizard said they estimated that “an increase of roughly 15 dollars in the price of Brent over a prolonged period could shave about 0.2 percentage points off global growth and add almost half a point to inflation.”

These are “not insignificant” effects in a context of “fairly fragile global economic growth”, he added.

Bangladesh's garment exporters' body has instructed its members to suspend new business dealings with an Indian company linked to the Aditya Birla Group after it allegedly failed to clear export dues of $426,830 owed to a Bangladeshi manufacturer.

In a letter to members last month, the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) said no new transactions should be undertaken with Styleverse Lifestyle Pvt Ltd and its related entities until the outstanding payment to Ducati Apparels Ltd is settled.

It also warned that no UD or UP certificates should be issued in favour of the company without prior approval from the association.
According to BGMEA sources, Styleverse Lifestyle Pvt Ltd is a sister concern of the Aditya Birla Group, with the Indian conglomerate holding a 51% stake in the company.

Md Khayer Mia, managing director of Ducati Apparels Ltd, told The Business Standard that the Indian buyer had been sourcing products from his company for about two and a half years, initially in small quantities.

In December 2024, Styleverse placed an order for 94,000 pieces of men's joggers and cargo trousers. The goods were manufactured accordingly, and a representative from Mumbai inspected and accepted the shipment. The products were then exported to India through the Benapole-Petrapole land port.

"According to the agreement, acceptance was supposed to be given within five working days after customs clearance, but they did not provide it," Khayer said.

He added that when contacted, the company later raised complaints about product quality. "I offered to visit India and conduct a quality check, but they did not agree."

Styleverse then proposed selling the goods to another customer. "Based on that [proposal], I arranged for resale, but they did not release the products, citing issues related to their brand tags," he said. "Eventually, I decided to take back the goods, but when the company failed to return them, I filed a complaint with the BGMEA after returning to Bangladesh."

"I did so because if the export proceeds do not come into the country, I could face allegations of money laundering, and it may also lead to a violation of the conditions of my bonded licence," he added.

Arbitration call ignored

Following this, the BGMEA sent letters to the company, as well as to the commerce and foreign ministries, the Indian High Commission in Dhaka, and the Bangladesh High Commission in Delhi.

The association invited Styleverse to Dhaka for arbitration, but the company did not participate and instead sent a legal notice to BGMEA.

Later, the BGMEA issued a letter to all its member factories, instructing them to obtain approval from the association before entering into any new business agreements with the company.

In its letter to members, the garment exporters' body said it had also contacted The Indian Garage Co, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd, and Grasim Industries Limited and their representatives, but no progress had been made. Despite repeated requests to join arbitration proceedings, the Indian buyer had not responded positively.

As a result, Ducati Apparels Ltd has fallen into financial difficulty, BGMEA said.

The association advised its members not to enter into fresh contracts with the company or its related entities. It warned that any member ignoring the directive would bear responsibility for potential complications.

Speaking to TBS on the issue, a senior official at the commerce ministry said they have written to concerned officials on the Indian side and were trying to resolve the dispute as soon as possible.

The Aditya Birla Group is one of India's largest multinational industrial groups, with operations spanning metals, cement, textiles, carbon black, financial services, and retail. Its fashion and retail business is managed by Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd, which markets several international and in-house clothing brands.

BGMEA said it was seeking cooperation from all concerned to ensure swift recovery of the outstanding dues, describing the matter as urgent.

Ducati Apparels is a concern of the Hyacinth Group and manufactures denim trousers, woven bottoms, and T-shirts for global brands.

Bangladesh’s merchandise exports fell for the seventh consecutive month in February, declining 12.03 percent year-on-year (YoY) to $3.49 billion, driven primarily by weakening garment shipments.

For the first eight months of the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26), exports dropped 3.15 percent to $31.90 billion, according to Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) data released yesterday.

BAD PERIOD FOR RMG

Readymade garments (RMG), which account for over 80 percent of national exports, recorded $25.79 billion during July-February, a 3.73 percent decline from the previous year.

February alone saw garment exports plunge 13.21 percent YoY to $2.81 billion, and 22.10 percent month-on-month from January’s $3.61 billion.

Within the sector, knitwear exports fell 4.56 percent to $13.68 billion, while woven garments declined 2.79 percent to $12.10 billion during the eight-month period.

The EPB attributed the export decline to temporary factors including port disruptions, the national election, and subdued global demand. Agricultural products, cotton, jute goods, non-leather footwear, and ceramics all underperformed during the period.

Garment exporters cited multiple headwinds behind the drop in the sector.

Faruque Hassan, managing director of garment exporter Giant Group, identified the United States’ reciprocal tariffs as a major factor for the slowdown over the last few months.

In addition, he said, uncertainty ahead of the February national election prompted international retailers and brands to adopt a wait-and-see approach in the earlier months, slowing order placements.

Strained relations with India, an emerging export market for Bangladesh, have also weighed on performance.

Hassan said he does not expect exports to rebound in March as election-related and other holidays alongside a shorter month of 28 days in February significantly reduced working days.

FEAR OVER IRAN WAR

On top of these, Hassan said the US and Israel’s ongoing war against Iran “will also affect the export of garment items from Bangladesh as the price of oil will also escalate the cost of production in the country.”

Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said garment exporters had anticipated a recovery as global supply chains revived.

However, echoing Hassan, he also said a prolonged US-Iran war could derail this optimism as higher oil prices are likely to push up production costs and affect the consumers’ spending capacity.

“The war will increase spending, and consumers will buy less garment items for which shipments from Bangladesh may fall,” he added.

Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, also warned that the conflict may affect the shipment to Western countries, including the two prime destinations – Europe and the US.

He explained that conflict near the Suez Canal, a vital shipping artery between Asia and the West, could force vessels to reroute via Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding nearly 5,000 kilometers to journeys.

This would significantly increase shipping costs and maritime insurance premiums, he added.

“The ultimate sufferers will be the cost of transportation of goods and will also affect the country’s competitiveness in the global supply chain,” Reaz said.

However, BGMEA chief Khan confirmed that so far, no exporters have reported stuck shipments due to the war.

BRIGHT SPOTS

Despite the overall decline, several sectors showed resilience. EPB data shows that pharmaceuticals, home textiles, leather and leather goods, and frozen fish all posted positive growth during July-February.

China emerged as the fastest-growing major export destination, with a 19.12 percent year-on-year increase. The US remained the largest market at $5.87 billion, registering modest 0.74 percent growth.

Defaulted loans in the banking sector fell to around 31 percent at the end of last year, down from around 36 percent three months earlier, following large-scale loan rescheduling under a special policy support of the central bank.

At the end of December 2025, defaulted loans stood at Tk 5,57,217 crore compared with Tk 6,44,515 crore at the end of September, according to the latest data from Bangladesh Bank (BB).

Within three months, the volume of bad loans dropped by Tk 87,298 crore.

Bankers said widespread rescheduling and restructuring under relaxed terms caused the sharp decline in non-performing loans at the end of the December quarter.

At the end of 2024, bad loans stood at Tk 3,45,764 crore, or 20.20 percent. On a year-on-year basis, defaulted loans rose by Tk 2,11,452 crore, marking a 61 percent increase.

Despite the drop in bad loans, bankers said actual cash recovery remained weak. Some banks had to reschedule loans following the central bank’s instructions.

In January last year, BB formed a five-member committee to provide policy support for restructuring corporate borrowers affected by macroeconomic stress and political instability.

On September 16, the central bank introduced a unified special rescheduling policy aimed at sustaining economic activity and helping borrowers who defaulted due to circumstances beyond their control.

Under the policy, some borrowers were allowed to regularise loans for up to 15 years with a down payment of just 1 percent or 2 percent and a one-year grace period.

During the first nine months of last year, more than 300 companies, including large defaulter conglomerates, applied for rescheduling or restructuring facilities worth around Tk 2 lakh crore.

Bad loans surged to a historic high of 36 percent at the end of September last year after big borrowers such as S Alam, Beximco, AnonTex and Sikder Group defaulted following the fall of the Awami League government in August 2024.

Regarding the reduced figures in December last year, Mati ul Hasan, managing director of Mercantile Bank PLC, said that while defaulted loans have declined, cash flow has not increased.

As many factories and industrial units remain shut, borrowers have been given a one-year grace period. This means banks will not be able to recover funds during this time.

“The true picture will emerge in 2027 when repayments resume,” the senior banker told The Daily Star.

He also said the new government and the central bank governor are encouraging efforts to boost employment and reopen closed factories.

“It remains to be seen whether the coming days will bring positive outcomes,” he added.

Meanwhile, Masrur Arefin, chairman of the Association of Bankers Bangladesh (ABB) and managing director of City Bank, said four factors drove the decline in non-performing loans at the end of December.

Many banks partially wrote off large volumes of bad loans, with some writing off between Tk 300 crore and Tk 1,500 crore.

The second factor was the BB policy support, Arefin said. “Policy support played a role but was not the main driver.”

“Only about 42 percent of the policy support was implemented. In other words, if policy support worth Tk 100 was approved, only around 42 percent was actually executed,” said the ABB chairman.

He labelled recovery drives by banks in December last year as the third factor, which he said helped banks claw back a large chunk of loans.

Besides, he said some loans could not be classified as default due to court stay orders, which also contributed to the decline.

At the end of December last year, bad loans at state-owned banks stood at Tk 1,46,107.59 crore, or 44.44 percent of their total disbursed amounts, according to BB data.

Private commercial banks recorded Tk 3,89,579 crore in non-performing loans, equivalent to 28.25 percent of disbursed loans. Foreign banks held Tk 2,983.77 crore, or 4.51 percent, according to BB data.

Specialised banks reported Tk 18,546.47 crore, or 39.74 percent, in bad loans.

Moinul Islam, former professor of economics at University of Chittagong, said rescheduling loans on overly easy terms is not a lasting solution for reducing bad loans.

The economist said that while such measures may temporarily reduce reported figures, they do not actually solve the underlying problem.

“Strict measures must be taken against defaulters. Separate tribunals should be formed for the top 10 defaulters of each bank in order to recover their defaulted amounts,” he suggested.

After the rescheduling and restructuring, the banking sector now faces a provision shortfall of Tk 1,91,441 crore.

In 1999, bad loans in the banking sector stood at a record 41.1 percent. The ratio gradually declined and reached 6.1 percent in 2011.

Oil prices surged on Monday and shares slid as military conflict in the Middle East looked set to last weeks, sending investors flocking to the relative safety of the dollar and gold.

Brent LCOc1 jumped 4.5% to $76.07 a barrel, though it had briefly topped $82.00 at one stage, while U.S. crude CLc1 climbed 3.9% to $69.59 per barrel. Gold rose 1.0% to $5,327 an ounce XAU=. O/RGOL/

Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran showed no sign of lessening, while Iran responded with missile barrages across the region, risking dragging its neighbours into the conflict.

President Donald Trump suggested to the Daily Mail the conflict could last for four more weeks, while posting that attacks would continue until U.S. objectives were met.

All eyes were on the Strait of Hormuz where around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade flows and 20% of its liquefied natural gas. While the vital waterway has not yet been blocked, marine tracking sites showed tankers piling up on either side of the strait wary of attack or maybe unable to get insurance for the voyage.

"The most immediate and tangible development affecting oil markets is the effective halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 15 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from reaching markets," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

"Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil."

A prolonged spike in oil prices would risk reigniting inflationary pressures globally, while also acting as a tax on business and consumers that could dampen demand.

OPEC+ did agree a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April on Sunday, but a lot of that product still has to get out of the Middle East by tanker.

"The nearest historical analogue in our view is the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, which increased oil prices by 300% to around $12/bbl in 1974," said Alan Gelder, SVP of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.

"That is only US$90/bbl in 2026 terms. Eclipsing this in today's market concerned about significant losses of supply seems very achievable."

That would be expensive for Japan, which imports all its oil, sending the Nikkei .N225 down 1.4%, with airlines among the hardest hit. Chinese blue-chips .CSI300 went their own way and held steady.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 1.2%.

AND IT'S A BIG US DATA WEEK

In the Mid East, the UAE and Kuwait temporarily closed their stock markets citing "exceptional circumstances".

For Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures STXEc1 shed 1.4% and DAX futures FDXc1 slid 1.3%. On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures ESc1 and Nasdaq futures NQc1 both lost 0.6%.

The oil shock rippled through currency markets with the dollar a main beneficiary. The U.S. is a net energy exporter and Treasuries are still considered a liquid haven in times of stress, shoving the euro down 0.2% to $1.1788 EUR=EBS.

While the Japanese yen is often a safe harbour, the country imports all of its oil making the flows more two-way. The dollar added 0.1% to 156.25 yen JPY=EBS, while gaining on the Australian dollar AUD=D3, which is often sold as a liquid proxy for global risk.

In bond markets, 10-year Treasury yields steadied at 3.970%, having briefly touched an 11-month low of 3.926% US10YT=TWEB.

Bonds had gained a bid on Friday when UK mortgage lender MFS was placed into administration following allegations of financial irregularities. Its collapse stoked wider credit fears, with well-known big banks among its lenders. MFS had borrowed 2 billion pounds ($2.69 billion).

The news slugged banking stocks and combined with jitters over AI-related stocks to hit Wall Street more broadly. .N

Investors also have to weather a squall of U.S. economic data this week, including the ISM survey of manufacturing, retail sales and the always vital payrolls report.

Any weakness could shake confidence in the economy after a disappointing fourth quarter, but would also likely narrow the odds on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Markets currently imply a 50% chance of an easing in June and about 60 basis points of cuts this year. 0#USDIRPR

European gas prices soared more than 20 percent Monday on fears that the Iran war will cut supplies in the Gulf region, notably exports from Qatar.

The Dutch TTF natural gas contract, considered the European benchmark, rocketed to 38.885 euros, having earlier gained more than 22 percent.

Despite the surge, the price was below the level it reached in January during the northern hemisphere winter.

The Dhaka stock market rebounded sharply yesterday, shrugging off a global selloff triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East, as speculation over a potential change in the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) leadership spurred buying interest among local investors.

Market insiders said optimism surrounding the possible resignation of BSEC Chairman Khondoker Rashed Maqsood drove the rally throughout the session, even though no official announcement was made.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) jumped 72 points, or 1.32%, to close at 5,534, recovering from a steep 138-point fall in the previous session caused by concerns over the Iran-US-Israel conflict.

The blue-chip DS30 index gained 18 points to settle at 2,135.
Market breadth turned strongly positive, with 340 issues advancing against 42 decliners, while 12 remained unchanged.

Turnover inched up to Tk780 crore, indicating improved participation, and the bourse's market capitalisation rose by around Tk4,000 crore.

A managing director of a leading brokerage told The Business Standard that the rebound was largely sentiment-driven. "The market reacted to a rumour circulating from early trading hours that the BSEC chairman might step down. Investors took fresh positions hoping a leadership change could help restore confidence in a market that has struggled in recent years," he said.

The rumour gained traction following the resignations of several high-profile officials, including the insurance regulator's chairman, the chairman of Sadharan Bima Corporation, and the chairman of Sonali Bank.

The earlier replacement of the Bangladesh Bank governor also reinforced expectations of broader institutional reshuffling.

Although Maqsood did not resign during Monday's session, speculation continued on social media about the possible appointment of a new chairman.

Investors appeared willing to bet on anticipated reforms rather than wait for official confirmation.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury recently hinted at restructuring the securities regulator, noting that sustainable and structural reforms would be necessary for long-term market stability.

Finance ministry officials indicated that the government has already begun searching for a new BSEC chairman and may undertake broader institutional changes to address long-standing weaknesses in the capital market.

On the sectoral front, bank stocks dominated turnover, accounting for 26.5% of total transactions, followed by pharmaceuticals at 16.8% and textiles at 7.9%.

City Bank led the turnover chart with Tk46 crore in transactions, followed by Orion Infusion, BRAC Bank, Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag, and Bank Asia.

Most sectors closed in positive territory, with financial institutions posting the highest gain at 4.5%, followed by services at 3.1% and travel at 3.0%. Individual gainers included Regent Textile, New Line Clothings, LankaBangla Finance, Olympic Accessories, and BIFC, each surging 10%.

On the losing side were Rahima Food, Information Services, Intech, Grameen Scheme Two Mutual Fund, and ICB Employees Provident Mutual Fund.

The upbeat sentiment extended to the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), where the CSCX index rose 76 points to 9,498 and the CASPI index advanced 148 points to 15,500.

Turnover at the port city bourse climbed 52% to Tk19.44 crore.

India has expressed its willingness to work closely with the new government of Bangladesh to expand bilateral business, economic and investment ties.

Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Pranay Verma made the comments after a meeting with Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir at his office in Dhaka yesterday.

Speaking to journalists, Verma said the meeting covered a broad range of issues, including the resumption of trade through land ports, transhipment, investment opportunities and the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).

He emphasised that the discussions were not limited to a single topic but spanned a wide range of sectors.

“The land ports are key to expanding trade between our countries,” Verma said, adding that several land ports have remained closed over the past year, except for Benapole.

He added that India is keen to engage closely with the new government of Bangladesh to strengthen trade, economic ties and people-focused cooperation.

“We aim to work together in a positive, constructive and forward-looking manner based on mutual interest and mutual benefit. We have a very strong trade, economic and business relationship between our two countries,” said the high commissioner.

Minister Muktadir also said the meeting addressed the suspension of trade through some land ports over the last 18 months and discussed ways to increase bilateral trade.

During the meeting, the two sides discussed several trade-related issues and explored a roadmap for future cooperation.

According to state-owned news agency Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS), Muktadir described India as a major economic partner with a GDP exceeding $4 trillion.

He added that bilateral trade currently totals about $11 billion, with Bangladesh importing roughly $9.5 billion and exporting $1.5 billion worth of goods.

While talking to journalists, Muktadir said the government is closely monitoring the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

He said that while the strait is a crucial global trade route, there is no immediate threat to the supply of essential commodities or fuel.

The Strait of Hormuz is vital, as around one-fifth of global maritime trade passes through it, the minister said.

“If the strait were to remain closed for an extended period, it would have a major impact on global shipping. However, it is too early to be overly alarmed. The situation may be resolved within a few days.”

He added that the government has applied for a deferment of Bangladesh’s graduation from the group of Least Developed Countries, which will be assessed by the United Nations.