A growing diesel shortage is threatening the operations of lighterage vessels that transport bulk cargo from ships anchored off Chattogram port to destinations across Bangladesh, raising concerns of disruptions in the country's supply chain.

Industry insiders warn that if the fuel crisis persists, unloading cargo at the port's outer anchorage and transporting goods through inland waterways could be severely affected, potentially triggering shortages in domestic markets ahead of Eid.

A lighterage vessel typically requires between 2,500 and 5,000 litres of diesel per trip, depending on capacity. These vessels usually collect fuel from bunkering tankers, but supplies have become scarce after the government introduced rationing measures amid a broader fuel shortage linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Distributors say the volume of diesel they are receiving from state-run fuel marketing companies is now less than half of the actual demand. As a result, many vessels remain unable to depart even after loading cargo.

Key link in supply chain

Bangladesh's inland waterways play a critical role in transporting imported commodities across the country.

Bulk goods arriving at Chattogram port on large mother vessels are unloaded at the outer anchorage and transferred to smaller lighterage vessels, which then carry the cargo to different river ports nationwide. Around 1,500 lighterage vessels are involved in transporting imported goods from the mother vessels at the outer anchorage of Chattogram port.

Any disruption in this system could affect the flow of essential commodities, potentially causing shortages in markets during the upcoming Eid season and pushing up prices.

Vessel operators struggling

Mohammad Jahangir Alam, owner of ANJ Trading, operates a fleet of 60 vessels, including both owned and chartered ships.

If we send a vessel on a long route, it needs around 5,000 litres at once. Unlike road transport, there are no refuelling stations along waterways. That's why we are avoiding long-distance trips. More than half of our vessels are sitting idle.
Mohammad Jahangir Alam, owner, ANJ Trading

His operations require around 2,05,000 litres of diesel each month. Under a distributor licence from Padma Oil Company, he normally lifts about 70,000 litres of diesel weekly to supply his vessels.

However, he said the company has not supplied any diesel since 3 March.

"For the past few days we have been managing local trips by giving only 400 to 500 litres of diesel to each vessel," Jahangir told TBS.

"If we send a vessel on a long route, it needs around 5,000 litres at once. Unlike road transport, there are no refuelling stations along waterways. That's why we are avoiding long-distance trips. More than half of our vessels are sitting idle."

'Supply cut by 25%'

Padma Oil Company Managing Director Mofizur Rahman said distributors are still receiving diesel supplies, though at a reduced level.

"According to government instructions, we are supplying 25% less than usual," he told TBS.

He added that several fuel shipments have recently arrived.

"One vessel arrived yesterday, another today, and another is expected tomorrow. Fuel supply should return to normal within a few days," he said.

Port cargo handling at risk

Parvez Ahmed, convener of the Bangladesh Water Transport Coordination Cell, said around 73 mother vessels carrying various bulk commodities are currently waiting at the outer anchorage of Chattogram port.

The coordination cell allocates about 100 lighterage vessels daily to transport cargo from these ships to destinations across the country.

"These lighterage vessels require around 4,00,000 to 5,00,000 litres of fuel every day for their operations," he said.

Due to the shortage, many vessels loaded with cargo are now floating in the Karnaphuli River, unable to sail without adequate fuel.

"If the vessels cannot depart, cargo cannot be unloaded from the mother vessels. This could disrupt the supply of food and other essential goods and create instability in the market," Parvez said.

He added that the coordination cell has written to the government requesting uninterrupted fuel supply for lighterage vessels in order to maintain commodity prices, protect the reputation of Chattogram port and keep the national economy functioning smoothly.

Call for urgent action

Sarwar Alam Sagar, president of the Bangladesh Ship Handling and Berth Operator Association, warned that prolonged disruption in waterway cargo transport could collapse the country's supply chain.

"If cargo movement through waterways is disrupted due to the fuel shortage, the supply system could break down and create a humanitarian crisis," he said.

"The government should ensure adequate fuel supply for lighterage vessels to keep the supply chain running."

India today came out with a fresh set of guidelines easing norms for foreign direct investment (FDI) coming from countries sharing land border with it, providing for a 60-day timeline for approval to investments in critical sectors, including electronic capital goods and electronic components.

A meeting of the Indian cabinet presided by Prime Minister Narendra Modi approved the changes in FDI policy for investments from Land Bordering Countries (LBCs), which will help manufacturing in electronic components, capital goods and solar cells, an official statement said this evening (10 March).

Countries that share land borders with India are China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Afghanistan and Myanmar.

The amendments in the FDI policy aim to unlock greater FDI inflows from global funds for startups and deep techs, take forward the agenda of ease of doing business, it said.

The changes in the policy envisage "expeditious approval in 60 days to help companies enter into collaborations to expand manufacturing in India" with access to technology and integration with global supply chains.

In 2020, India had clamped restrictions on foreign companies having shareholders from the LBCs, which required mandatory government approval for investments in India in any sector, in a bid to curb opportunistic takeovers or acquisitions of Indian companies due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

At that time, the Indian government clearance was mandatory for an entity of a country, which shares land border with India or where the beneficial owner of an investment into India is situated in or is a citizen of any such country. Additionally, any transfer of ownership of any existing or future FDI in an entity in India resulting in the beneficial ownership falling within the aforesaid jurisdiction(s) also requires government approval.

The statement noted that the restrictions on cases where LBC investors may have only non-strategic, non-controlling interests were seen as adversely affecting investment flows from investors, including global funds such as PE/VC funds.

It said, "The new guidelines will provide clarity and ease of doing business in India, and facilitate investments which can contribute towards greater FDI inflows, access to new technologies, domestic value addition, expansion of domestic firms and integration with global supply chain."

"This would help in leveraging and enhancing India's competitiveness as a preferred investment and manufacturing destination," according to the statement.

The statement said the existing policy has been reviewed and amended to provide for a definition and criteria for the determination of beneficial ownership (BO) that is widely used by the investing community under the Prevention of Money Laundering Rules, 2005.

The beneficial ownership test will be applied at the level of the investor entity. Investors with non-controlling LBC beneficial ownership of up to 10% would be permitted under the automatic route, subject to applicable sectoral caps, entry routes and attendant conditions.

Under the amended FDI rules, such investments would be subject to the reporting of relevant information/details by the investee entity to the Commerce Ministry. Expedited clearance of investments in specific sectors –

Proposals for LBC investments in specified sectors of manufacturing in capital goods, electronic capital goods, electronic components, polysilicon and ingot-wafer would be processed and decided within 60 days.

The Companies under the Cabinet Secretary may also revise the list of specified sectors.

In these cases, the majority shareholding and control of the Investee entity will have to be with resident Indian citizens and/or resident Indian entities owned and controlled by resident Indian citizens at all times.

China stands at the 23rd position with only a 0.32% share ($2.51 billion) in the total FDI equity inflow reported in India from April 2000 to December 2025.

Relations between New Delhi and Beijing nosedived following the fierce clash between their armies in Galwan Valley across the unresolved Himalayan borders in eastern Ladakh in June 2020 that marked the most serious military conflict between the two sides in decades.

Following the military faceoff, India banned over 200 Chinese mobile apps like TikTok, WeChat, and Alibaba's UC browser.

Bilateral trade between India and China has grown multi-fold with the balance trade heavily tilted in favour of China. In fact, China has emerged the second-largest trading partner of India.

In 2024-25, India's exports to China shrunk 14.5% to $14.25 billion as against $16.66 billion in 2023-24. Imports, however, rose 11.52 per cent in 2024-25 to $113.45 billion against $101.73 billion in 2023-24. The trade deficit was widened to $99.2 billion in 2024-25 from $85 billion in 2023-24.

During April-January 2025-26, India's exports to China rose 38.37% to $15.88 billion, while imports rose 13.82% to $108.18 billion. Trade deficit stood at $02.3 billion.

According to Exim Bank of India data, cumulative inflows of FDI into India from Bangladesh during April 2000- March 2020 amounted to $0.1 million.

Cumulative Foreign Direct Investment from India to Bangladesh has more than doubled from $243.91 million in 2014 to $570.11 million in December 2018. Indian companies have invested in various sectors, including telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, FMCG and automobile sectors in Bangladesh.

During Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's visit in April 2017, 13 agreements worth around $10 billion of Indian investment mainly in power and energy sectors in Bangladesh, were signed.

Billions of dollars have already been spent by the United States on weapons in the war with Iran, making war a highly profitable business for defence contractors.

Last week, stock prices for major US arms-producing companies rose, including Northrop Grumman (up 5%), RTX (up 4.5%) and Lockheed Martin (up 3%).

In 2024, the top 100 defence companies in the world generated more than $679b in revenue, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

European heavyweights such as the UK's BAE Systems, Italy's Leonardo, the trans-European Airbus, France's Thales and Germany's Rheinmetall are among the top 20 companies, with many expanding amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Largest US defence contractors

According to SIPRI's report, 39 US contractors appear on its list of the top 100 defence companies, far exceeding China's eight groups.

The five largest US defence companies are Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and Boeing.

Lockheed Martin, the world's largest defence contractor formed in 1995 through the merger of Lockheed and Martin Marietta, generated $68.4b in revenue in 2024 and manufactures aircraft such as the F-35 as well as missile and space systems.

RTX, created in 2020 after the merger of Raytheon and United Technologies, focuses on missile systems, jet engines and avionics, with $43.6b of its 2024 revenue coming from defence.

Northrop Grumman, formed in 1994 after Northrop acquired Grumman, produces stealth aircraft such as the B-21 Raider and develops space and nuclear modernisation systems, earning $37.9b from defence in 2024.

General Dynamics develops nuclear submarines, battle tanks and armoured vehicles and recorded $33.6b in defence revenue in 2024.

Boeing, founded in 1916, generates revenue from commercial aircraft production as well as defence and space programmes including the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, AH-64 Apache and P-8 Poseidon, with $30.6b coming from defence in 2024.

Israel's major defence firms

According to SIPRI, three Israeli companies appear on the list of the world's top 100 defence companies.

Elbit Systems, Israel's largest defence company, specialises in drones, surveillance systems and battlefield electronics, generating $6.3b from defence in 2024.

Israel Aerospace Industries focuses on missile defence systems, satellites, combat drones and radar technology and earned $5.2b from defence.

Rafael, the developer of Israel's Iron Dome missile defence system, generated $4.7b from defence in 2024.

Defence spending and stock growth

According to SIPRI, global defence spending rose 9.4% in 2024 to reach $2.7 trillion.

NATO members have also pledged to increase their defence budgets from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035, adding hundreds of billions of dollars in annual spending.

To replenish rapidly depleting munitions used in the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, major weapons contractors are investing billions in new orders, responding to rising demand and driving up their stock prices.

From March 2023 to March 2026, RTX recorded the largest stock increase among major US contractors at 110%, followed by Northrop Grumman at 60%, General Dynamics at 57%, Lockheed Martin at 37% and Boeing at 5%.

Oil prices plummeted 7 percent on Tuesday after soaring to a more than three-year high in ​the previous session as US President Donald Trump predicted the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil ‌supplies.

Brent futures were down $7.15, or 7.2 percent, at $91.81 a barrel by 1307 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $6.26, or 6.6 percent, at $88.51 a barrel. Both contracts fell as much as 11 percent earlier in the day.

Trading volumes in Brent dropped to about 328,000 contracts, the lowest amount since February 27, just before the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. Volumes in WTI ​fell to 296,000 contracts, the lowest since February 23.

Oil surged to more than $119 a barrel on Monday to its highest since mid-2022 as supply cuts by Saudi ​Arabia and other producers stoked fears of major disruptions to global supplies.

Prices later retreated after Russian President Vladimir Putin had a ⁠call with Trump and shared proposals aimed at a quick settlement to the war, according to a Kremlin aide, easing concerns about oil supply.

Trump said on Monday in a ​CBS News interview that he thought the war against Iran was "very complete" and Washington was "very far ahead" of his initial four- to five-week estimated time frame.

“Clearly Trump's comments ​about a short-lived war have calmed markets. While there was an overreaction to the upside yesterday, we think there is an overreaction to the downside today," said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, adding that the market was under-appreciating risks at these levels for Brent.

“Murban and Dubai grades are still well above $100 per barrel, so practically nothing much has changed ​in terms of ground realities," he added, referring to benchmark Middle Eastern oil grades.

In response to Trump, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said they would “determine the end ​of the war” and Tehran would not allow “one litre of oil” to be exported from the region if US and Israeli attacks continued, state media reported on Tuesday.

They're too expensive.

Meanwhile, Trump is considering easing ‌oil sanctions ⁠on Russia and releasing emergency crude stockpiles as part of a package of options aimed at curbing spiking prices, according to multiple sources.

“Discussions around easing sanctions on Russian oil, comments from Donald Trump hinting that the conflict could eventually de-escalate, and the possibility of G7 countries tapping strategic oil reserves all pointed to the same message - that oil barrels will somehow continue to reach the market," Priyanka Sachdeva, a Phillip Nova analyst, said in a note.

“Once traders sensed that supply routes could ​still be maintained, the initial 'panic premium' that ​had pushed prices above the $100 mark ⁠yesterday started to fade, and oil prices quickly pulled back."

Saudi Arabia's Aramco, the world's top oil exporter, said on Tuesday there would be "catastrophic consequences" for the world's oil markets if the Iran war continues to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

“Policy measures ​may have limited impact on oil prices unless safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is assured, given the potential ​losses of up ⁠to 12 million bpd over the next two weeks," JPMorgan said in a note.

In the latest disruption to global supplies, Abu Dhabi state oil giant ADNOC has shut its Ruwais refinery, a source said on Tuesday, after a fire broke out at a facility within the complex following a drone strike.

Goldman Sachs said because the situation remains fluid, it ⁠was not ​changing its oil price forecast for Brent at $66 per barrel in the fourth quarter and WTI at $62 ​per barrel.

G7 energy ministers will discuss how to tackle soaring energy prices due to the war in Iran on a call on Tuesday while a group of European Union leaders will do so later ​in the day, officials said.

Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC has approved a proposal to bring US-based B100 Holdings LLC as a strategic investor in its mobile financial services subsidiary mCash Ltd, according to a price sensitive disclosure issued yesterday (8 March).

The decision was taken at the bank's board meeting held yesterday at its head office in Dhaka.

According to the statement, the bank approved the onboarding of B100 Holdings as a strategic partner in mCash Ltd, which operates the bank's mobile financial services platform, subject to compliance with applicable legal and regulatory requirements.

As part of the plan, the paid-up capital of mCash will be increased in phases to Tk500 crore, with Islami Bank maintaining a minimum 51% equity stake in the company. B100 Holdings may acquire up to 48.99% ownership through the subscription of shares, subject to approval from the mCash board and relevant regulatory authorities.

The proposed investment is expected to strengthen the capital base of mCash and support the expansion of digital financial services under its mobile financial services platform.

Governments scrambled to limit the impact on economies and consumers from the widening Iran war, which fuelled a record surge in oil prices on Monday after key producers cut output and Tehran signalled that hardliners would remain in charge.

In a sign of mounting governmental concern over supply disruptions, the Group of Seven finance ministers will discuss the possibility of a joint release of emergency oil reserves in a meeting on Monday, a French government source said.

In South Korea, which buys 70% of its oil from the Middle East, President Lee Jae Myung said Seoul would cap fuel prices for the first time in nearly 30 years and he warned against panic buying.

Speaking at an emergency meeting, Lee called the crisis "a significant burden on our economy, which is highly dependent on global trade and energy imports from the Middle East."

A senior Japanese member of Parliament on Sunday said the government had instructed a national oil reserve storage site to prepare for a possible crude release, although the country's chief cabinet secretary later said no decision had been made to release stockpiles.

Japan imports around 95% of its oil from the Middle East. It has reserves to cover 354 days of consumption.

Elsewhere, Vietnam removed import tariffs on fuels and Bangladesh shut universities to conserve electricity and fuel, while China last week asked refiners to halt fuel exports and try to cancel shipments that were already committed.

Trump downplays US price surge

President Donald Trump tried to downplay concerns about rising US gasoline prices, which were up 11% for the week on Friday, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called on him to sell oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

"Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for USA, and World, Safety and Peace," Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday night. "ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!"

Oil jumped 25%, with Brent on track for a record one-day gain, while OPEC producers Kuwait and Iraq cut output over the weekend as the crucial Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut.

Brent jumps 25% on supply fears

Across Asia, which sources 60% of its oil from the Middle East, equities slid and the dollar rose as worries grew that the disruption in energy supplies could be prolonged.

Iran on Monday named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, a move that is expected to draw Trump's ire. Weekend attacks on Iranian oil storage facilities fuelled fears of retaliatory strikes on energy facilities.

In Bahrain, Bapco Energies declared force majeure on Monday following an attack on its refinery complex, the company said.

"Oil prices have now gathered all the ingredients for a perfect storm - Middle East Gulf producers cutting output, the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz ... all compounded by a growing pessimism about a quick turnaround in the current situation," said Kpler senior oil analyst Muyu Xu.

Iraq cut oil production at its main southern oilfields by 70% to 1.3 million barrels per day, three industry sources said on Sunday, while Kuwait Petroleum Corp began cutting oil output on Saturday and declared force majeure.

No. 2 LNG exporter Qatar has already halted exports of the superchilled fuel and analysts predict that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will also have to cut output soon as they run out of oil storage due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.

When tensions escalate among global and regional powers, the shockwaves ripple through oil markets, shipping lanes, labour migration routes, and financial systems, reaching economies thousands of kilometres away.

The US-Israel war on Iran is rapidly emerging as one of the most significant geopolitical crises for the global economy in recent years, sending tremors through markets and supply chains.

Although the fighting is roughly 4,000 kilometres from Bangladesh, economists say the impact could be substantial for a nation heavily reliant on imported fuel and remittances from workers in the Middle East.

According to economists, the crisis due to the war risks setting off a chain reaction: rising energy prices, disrupted trade flows, weakened export competitiveness, turmoil in the migrant labour market and remittance inflows, higher inflation, and renewed pressure on foreign exchange reserves amid a constrained fiscal space.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka office, said Bangladesh’s economic exposure could unfold through three channels: energy, the dollar, and trade and finance.

He compared the potential shock of the war to an earthquake rather than a passing storm.

A storm passes temporarily, Hussain said. “Water rises and then recedes. Some damage happens, but the situation stabilises. But an earthquake damages the underlying infrastructure, affecting both life and property.”

The economist said the scale of the impact will depend on both the intensity and duration of the war.

“The key question is not only the magnitude of the shock, but also how long it lasts. The longer it continues, the greater the damage,” he said.

ENERGY SHOCK LOOMS

The most immediate and potentially severe impact of the Iran war is on global oil markets, with the price surging to $119 as of yesterday compared to around $72 per barrel a year ago.

The Gulf region sits at the heart of the world’s energy supply chain.

Following last week’s US and Israel’s attack on Iran, Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route, seriously disrupting cargo transport between the Middle East and Bangladesh.

Major shipping lines have suspended cargo bookings between the Indian subcontinent, including Bangladesh, and the Gulf.

For Bangladesh, the consequences could be painful.

The country imports almost all its fuel -- from crude oil to refined petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG). A spike in oil prices would immediately inflate the country’s energy import bill.

Long queues have already appeared at fuel stations across the country as panic buying spreads, while the government has closed universities and introduced fuel rationing to cushion the fallout.

Higher fuel prices would also increase costs for electricity generation, transportation, and industrial production.

In that case, the government, already struggling to manage energy subsidies, would face difficult choices: absorb the cost through larger subsidies or pass it on to consumers through higher fuel and power prices.

Both carry economic consequences, such as rising subsidies straining public finances, while higher domestic energy prices push up living costs and production expenses.

INFLATION COULD GO WILD, AGAIN

Energy shocks rarely stay confined to the power sector; instead, they ripple through the entire economy.

Bangladesh has been struggling with stubbornly high inflation for around three years. Inflation was above the 9 percent mark from March 2023, easing slightly in 2025, and showing a resurgence recently.

The drivers for renewed price pressure include high food prices, currency depreciation, and rising import costs.

A further rise in global oil prices would amplify these pressures by raising transport and logistics costs across supply chains.

Higher fuel costs affect everything from agricultural irrigation to the distribution of essential commodities, potentially pushing food inflation higher and squeezing household purchasing power.

This dynamic could leave the economy facing elevated inflation alongside slowing growth.

After months of easing, headline inflation reached a 10-month high in February due mainly to rising food prices, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

FOREIGN EXCHANGE UNDER STRAIN

Energy imports are one of Bangladesh’s largest sources of foreign currency outflows. A prolonged rise in oil prices would add pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Bangladesh has previously faced periods of reserve stress due to high import bills and currency volatility. Another energy shock could widen the current account deficit, increasing the cost of fuel imports.

As demand for dollars rises, the Bangladeshi taka may face renewed depreciation, further raising the domestic price of imported goods and reinforcing inflation.

REMITTANCE RISKS

Bangladesh’s large migrant workforce in the Middle East is another vulnerability. Since fiscal year 2025, around 86 lakh Bangladeshi workers have gone abroad for jobs, with Saudi Arabia employing nearly half.

Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, account for around 75 percent of overseas employment, according to the Bangladesh Economic Review 2025.

If the conflict escalates, economic activity in the Gulf could slow, threatening employment for migrant workers and reducing remittance inflows.

Even a moderate slowdown would put additional pressure on Bangladesh’s external balance, as remittances play a crucial role in offsetting the country’s large import bill.

The war could also disrupt global trade routes. During geopolitical tension, shipping companies often raise insurance premiums, and freight rates increase if vessels reroute to avoid conflict zones.

For Bangladesh’s export-oriented industries, particularly the ready-made garment sector, higher logistics costs could reduce competitiveness. Importers would also face higher charges for essential commodities, machinery, and industrial inputs, feeding through into domestic prices.

Bangladesh’s energy system remains fragile. Power generation depends heavily on imported fuels and LNG.

Tight global gas markets or surging LNG prices could make affordable supply difficult, leading to potential power shortages or higher generation costs. Such disruptions could affect industrial production, especially in energy-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and textiles.

“The first risk is energy, both in terms of price increases and availability,” said economist Hussain.

“Even if you are willing to pay a higher price, you may not be able to secure supply. If energy supply is disrupted, the real economy, agriculture, industry and services, comes under risk,” he added.

The economist also warned of mounting pressure on the US dollar. “As global uncertainty rises, the dollar strengthens and our import bill increases,” Hussain said.

“Even if the volume of imports does not rise, the total bill will increase, meaning we will have to spend more local currency to buy the same amount of dollars. That will further fuel inflation.”

A stronger dollar could complicate external payments.

“When dollars become scarce, settlement of outstanding payments becomes difficult, and payment obligations start to accumulate,” he said, adding that this could create pressure on banks’ balance sheets and the government budget.

The third channel is trade and financial flows, particularly higher logistics costs.

“Freight charges, port costs and insurance premiums are already rising, which increases payments under the services account of the balance of payments,” Hussain said. “Individually, these costs may seem small, but collectively they create significant pressure.”

He also flagged risks to remittance flows.

“There are two risks for remittances. First, employment and wage risks for migrant workers if the conflict spreads, and second, possible disruptions in payment systems that could affect money transfers,” he said.

“The external balance, financial sector and energy supply are all exposed, and their combined impact will eventually affect the real economy -- growth, employment and wages,” Hussain added.

BANGLADESH NEEDS A CONTINGENCY PLAN

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said Bangladesh should prepare a contingency plan to deal with emerging risks.

“We need to think about how to use the foreign financing already in the pipeline so that pressure on foreign exchange reserves remains limited,” he said. Once these funds arrive, they could add several billion dollars to reserves, easing external pressure.

Rahman also called for mobilising additional support, including budgetary assistance from institutions such as the World Bank.

“If fuel import costs surge, it will be very difficult to manage through reserves alone,” he said. “In that case, we may need financing arrangements such as import credit facilities from institutions like the Islamic Development Bank. Preparing a contingency plan in advance would be a prudent step.”

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, when asked about the potential impact of the war and whether austerity measures were being considered, did not provide a detailed response.

“We are working on this issue,” he told The Daily Star.

The government must address seven major economic challenges, including persistent inflation and energy constraints, through coordinated reforms to restore growth and strengthen economic resilience, speakers said yesterday.

Bangladesh’s economy faces multiple structural obstacles, as highlighted at the launch of a publication by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) titled “Reviving Private Sector-Led Economic Growth: Critical Issues and Priorities Facing the New Government in Bangladesh”, organised jointly with Policy Exchange Bangladesh in Dhaka yesterday.

The report identifies seven priority reform areas: macroeconomic stabilisation, fiscal management, financial sector reform, export competitiveness and diversification, revitalising private investment, energy security and skills development for employment.

Presenting the report, M Masrur Reaz said Bangladesh’s economic management requires an integrated approach as multiple structural constraints are slowing investment, exports and job creation.

He said the country entered a macroeconomic crisis in mid-2022 when inflation rose to around 13-14 percent, foreign exchange reserves dropped from nearly $48 billion to about $19 billion, and the taka depreciated sharply.

Although reserves have recovered to around $28-29 billion, major vulnerabilities remain.

Economic growth has slowed to about 3.49 percent, while the tax-GDP ratio has fallen to around 7 percent and debt servicing now accounts for roughly 21 percent of the national budget.

Private investment has declined from 24.9 percent to 22.5 percent of GDP, while foreign direct investment remains below 1 percent of GDP. Export concentration is another concern, with the readymade garment sector accounting for about 81 percent of exports.

The report recommends key reforms within the government’s first 100 days, including improving macroeconomic coordination, adopting a market-based exchange rate and launching investment climate reforms to restore investor confidence and revive growth.

Hossain Zillur Rahman, executive chairman of the Power and Participation Research Centre, said the private sector must re-establish an independent and constructive voice in national policymaking following the political transition.

He noted that during the previous long period of authoritarian governance, many private sector bodies lost their independent voice and became extensions of political processes.

Dewan Hanif Mahmud, editor of The Daily Bonik Barta, said Bangladesh should conduct forensic audits of major state-owned institutions to understand the true condition of the economy.

He stressed that forensic audits should be carried out in key state entities, including banks and energy institutions, to determine their financial health and asset quality.

Kamran T Rahman said Bangladesh’s economic recovery remains fragile despite some easing of balance of payments pressure and inflation.

He warned that LDC graduation will bring new challenges, including reduced preferential market access, tougher compliance requirements and sharper global competition.

Habibullah N Karim, vice president of MCCI, and Farooq Ahmed, secretary general and CEO of MCCI, also spoke at the event.

For four years, Bangladesh has struggled to escape the inflation spiral unleashed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a crisis that turned it into South Asia's highest-inflation economy.

Now another geopolitical shock is gathering force. On the tenth day of the US-Israel war on Iran, global oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel for the first time since that invasion, threatening to unleash yet another inflation storm on an already strained economy.

The uncomfortable irony is that the escalating war in the Middle East arrives just as a freshly elected government takes office and just as inflation had finally begun to slow.

Following a tightening monetary stance by the Bangladesh Bank, inflation had slipped below 9% – still high, but hinting that the long price surge might finally be losing momentum.

Oil soars 25%, gold drops as Iran war jolts global commodity markets

The latest data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics reveal just how uneasy the inflation landscape still is. Overall inflation climbed to 9.13% in February 2026, a ten-month high. Even more worrying, food inflation – the measure that defines everyday living costs – jumped to 9.30%, the highest in 13 months.

For ordinary households, the pain is becoming structural. Wage growth stood at 8.06%, marking the 48th consecutive month in which income growth has lagged behind inflation.

US crude oil, the front-month West Texas Intermediate futures soared 30% to hit $118.28 a barrel in Monday (9 March) trading hours, while Brent, the international benchmark, jumped more than 25% to $116.67 per barrel.

The surge comes as the escalating US-Israel war on Iran has fuelled fears of prolonged disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply, while the UAE and Kuwait have begun cutting oil production after the Strait blockage.

Inflation shoots up to 9.13% in February, highest in 10 months

For Bangladesh, such shocks rarely remain distant geopolitical headlines. Even before oil crossed $100 per barrel, panic buying gripped petrol pumps, showing that government assurances and rationing did little to calm fears.

The country imports most of its fuel and fertiliser, so global oil spikes ripple through the economy: transport costs rise, electricity becomes more expensive, fertiliser and irrigation costs climb, shipping costs increase, and eventually the pressure spreads to food markets and consumer goods. In short, global oil shocks quietly reach domestic kitchens.

Bangladesh has faced this before. The Russian invasion of Ukraine sent fuel, fertiliser, and food prices sharply higher, pushing inflation above 9% and keeping it stubbornly elevated for years. Today, the macroeconomic environment is even more fragile.

Merchandise exports fell for the seventh consecutive month in February 2026, while private credit growth dipped to a record low of 6% in January. Even the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission could not look away – its February 2026 Monthly Economic Update & Outlook report highlighted that a revenue shortfall, combined with weak mid-year Annual Development Programme (ADP) utilisation, is creating mounting fiscal challenges.

Governments scramble to limit fallout of Iran war as oil prices surge

The pressure on the taka is a particular concern. From Tk86 in February 2022 to crossing Tk100 in September 2022, it has now stood at Tk122.5 against the US dollar. With the US-Israel war on Iran driving energy costs ever higher, a further weakening of the taka could sharply push up import bills, electricity and fuel costs, and production expenses, sending the economic burden soaring across Bangladesh.

This also creates a difficult dilemma for monetary policy. With inflation already high, there is little room to loosen policy to stimulate growth. Yet tighter financial conditions risk slowing investment and employment.

Whether this becomes another full-scale inflation storm will depend largely on how long the war persists and whether global energy supply and routes stabilise. But the early signals from markets are unsettling.

Bangladesh is bracing for a storm it cannot fully control, and the coming months will test both policy resilience and the patience of ordinary citizens.

Oil prices surged over $119 a barrel, hitting ‌levels not seen since mid-2022, on Monday as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions gripped the market due to the expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Brent crude futures were up $13.02, or 14%, at $105.71 per barrel at 0917 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were ​up $12.16, or 13%, at $103.06.
In a whiplash session, Brent had earlier hit a high of $119.50 a barrel, indicating the biggest-ever ​absolute price jump in a single day, and WTI reached $119.48 a barrel. Before the surge on Monday, ⁠Brent had already climbed 28% and WTI 36% over last week.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the ​world's oil and liquefied natural gas typically passes, is virtually shut. Also boosting prices is the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his ​father Ali Khamenei as Iran's supreme leader, signalling that hardliners remain firmly in charge in Tehran a week into its conflict with the United States and Israel.
The war could leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the conflict, which started on ​February. 28, ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics and elevated risks to shipping.
U.S. gasoline contracts surged to ​their highest since 2022 at around $3.22 a gallon, at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump has told U.S. consumers the impact on ‌their cost ⁠of living would be limited ahead of mid-term elections in November.
Governments can release strategic petroleum reserves to counteract supply disruptions. U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called on Trump to make such a move and a French government source said on Monday that the Group of Seven nations would discuss this also.

Bangladesh has floated tenders to buy three more liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from the spot market for April delivery in a desperate race to secure gas amid deepening turmoil in the Middle East.

State-run Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Co Ltd (RPGCL) sought delivery of the LNG cargoes in three phases between April 5 and April 13, a move that came four days after the company floated tenders to buy two cargoes of gas for March 15-16 and March 18-19 deliveries.

Bangladesh had to buy two LNG cargoes from the spot market after failing to attract bidders for two consecutive days, although at more than double the normal rate.

The move comes amid uncertainty over the timely arrival of LNG shipments from Qatar, as shipping in the Gulf remains severely disrupted after Tehran threatened to "set fire" to vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US-Israeli war with Iran continues for a tenth day.

Located between Oman and Iran, and connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, the strait is one of the world's most important oil chokepoints.

Bangladesh meets nearly 30 percent of its gas demand, equivalent to 2,650 mmcfd, through imported LNG as domestic output continues to fall short.

The country also spends roughly $1 billion per year to import more than 60 lakh tonnes of petroleum and relies heavily on the Hormuz route. It sources most petroleum from the Middle East, and more than half of LNG imports in 2025 passed through this chokepoint.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has relaxed rules allowing foreign investors to repatriate proceeds up to Tk 100 crore from sales and share transfers without prior approval.

The central bank issued a circular on Sunday, saying banks can now independently process such repatriations if the fair value of the transaction is determined by an independent valuer using approved valuation methods.

Previously, banks could approve transactions of only up to Tk 10 crore, with most cases requiring central bank permission.

The relaxed rules apply to both state-owned and private companies that are not listed on stock exchanges.

The central bank said the move aims to simplify procedures and make the country a more attractive destination for foreign direct investment.

For deals where the transaction value does not exceed the net asset value (NAV) based on the latest audited financial statements, banks can approve repatriation regardless of the amount involved.

For smaller transactions of up to Tk 1 crore, investors no longer need to provide an independent valuation report.

To ensure proper oversight, the circular instructs banks to form internal committees to verify valuation reports and approve repatriation requests.

For small transactions, the committee must be led by the chief financial officer, while deals of up to Tk 100 crore require the chief executive officer’s leadership. Members with professional qualifications, such as CFA certification, must be included.

The circular also introduces procedural improvements to speed up transfers. Banks must complete repatriation within five working days if no discrepancies are found.

The overall share transfer process must be finalised within 45 days of signing the memorandum of understanding or receiving BB approval, whichever comes later.

The escalating crisis in the Middle East has dramatically changed the outlook for Asian central banks, with the huge supply shock posing a difficult trade-off ​between underpinning growth and countering inflation.

For emerging Asian central banks, cutting interest rates has become a risky bet not just because of the added price pressure from higher ‌fuel costs, but the risk of triggering capital outflows through worsening terms of trade with the US.

The Reserve Bank of India, for one, expects to focus more on supporting growth by keeping interest rates low, sources have told Reuters. But a rush towards the safe-haven dollar, which is intensifying from the US-Iran war, may force it to ramp up intervention to prop up its weakening currency.

"We don't see a possibility of a near-term rate hike in India - we do not ​see retail fuel prices moving higher immediately," said Suvodeep Rakshit, economist at Mumbai-based Kotak Institutional Equities.

"At this stage, the immediate priority of the central bank will be what happens on FX. ​We expect them to continue intervening to curb volatility there. An afterthought will be the liquidity impact of that intervention and they will infuse liquidity ⁠as needed."

Thailand and the Philippines may be forced to reverse their dovish monetary policy stance, even as rising fuel costs hurt their economies, said Toru Nishihama, chief emerging market economist at Dai-ichi Life ​Research Institute in Tokyo.Market Research Reports

"Many central banks will face a tough decision as they come under pressure from both markets and governments," Nishihama said. "With no clear end in sight to the conflict, the risk of stagflation ​is heightening day by day."

Share markets plunged and the safe-haven US dollar rose in Asia on Monday as oil surged past $110 a barrel, stoking fears of a protracted Middle East war on global energy supplies and higher inflation that may force central banks to hike rates.

The trade-off is particularly acute for manufacturing-heavy economies like South Korea and Japan, which are dependent on global trade, stable markets and cheap raw material costs - all being undermined by the widening Middle ​East crisis.

South Korea's central bank, which kept rates steady in February, could take a more hawkish stance if inflation persistently stays a percentage point above its target, said Citigroup economist Kim Jin-wook.

"For now, ​we continue to believe BoK is unlikely to hike policy rate in response to a higher-than-expected oil price," with government steps to curb fuel prices limiting the pass through of oil moves on inflation, Kim said.

'THINK OF THE ‌UNTHINKABLE'

Developed market ⁠central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, also face a tricky act balancing growth, inflation and increasing political pressure.

The dilemma runs deep for the Bank of Japan. If crude oil prices stay at $110 for a year, that could knock 0.39 of a percentage point off growth, according to Nomura Research Institute, a huge blow to an economy with subdued potential growth of around 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent.Global Economy Insights

But unlike in the past when it could afford to pause rate hikes, the BOJ has less room now to look through price pressures with inflation having exceeded its 2 per cent target for nearly four years.

That means the BOJ will have little ​choice but to repeat its mantra of continued ​rate hikes, while staying mum on the timing ⁠of such a move that could draw the ire of an administration hostile to higher borrowing costs, analysts say.

Australia and New Zealand are typical of how economies in different cycles put policymakers in a difficult bind.

Sustained oil price hikes risk de-anchoring price expectations in Australia, where inflation is already elevated, said ​Jonathan Kearns, chief economist at Challenger who is also a former Reserve Bank of Australia official.

"If inflation expectations increase, which they obviously could in ​this period where we've had ⁠high inflation, that will mean that the Reserve Bank would need to have interest rates higher for longer in order to bring inflation back down."

New Zealand faces a different challenge as the economy has struggled to recover from the hit from past rate hikes.

"We suspect central banks, and the RBNZ in particular, may well have to tolerate higher inflation in the short run to avoid tightening into a slowing global economy," said Jarrod ⁠Kerr, chief ​economist at Kiwibank.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday a 10 per cent rise in oil prices, if persistent through ​most of the year, would result in a 40-basis-point increase in global inflation.

"We are seeing resilience tested again by the new conflict in the Middle East," Georgieva said in a symposium in Tokyo. "My advice to policymakers in this new global environment is ​think of the unthinkable and prepare for it."

A day after a massive bloodbath at the Dhaka bourse, stocks rebounded yesterday as the sell-off largely subsided and buyers dominated the market.

The DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), surged 132 points, or 2.64%, with more than 90% of the traded stocks advancing on the bourse, although turnover fell by 22%, data showed.

On Sunday (8 March), the first trading session of the week, stocks suffered the highest single-day fall in six years as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered panic selling across the market.

The index plunged 231 points, or 4.42%, to close at 5,008, hitting a two-month low and marking the biggest one-day decline since the Covid-19 pandemic era.

Market insiders said Sunday's sell-off was mostly panic driven assuming fuel crisis significantly may hit businesses due to Middle East conflict. After the conflict began, stocks witnessed bearish trends as cautious investors preferred to pull-off funds selling shares.

"Stocks declined significantly in recent trading sessions due to heavy sell-offs. As investors offloaded shares in previous sessions, funds generated from those sales were reinvested in the market, which helped stocks rebound," said the managing director of a brokerage firm.

The port city bourse, Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), settled on a positive territory. The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) and All Share Price Index (CASPI) advanced by 51.9 points and 82.6 points, respectively.

Bank stock save indices

The data showed that stocks began trading on the red pulling DSEX below 5,000 points marks. Six minutes later after starting trades, stock climbed to green as sell-offs reversed into buy domination, and continued till 10.22am with DSEX increasing 100 points.

After that a wave of sell-off again gripped the market, the bank stocks saved the indices as share prices of some large cap stocks including Islami Bank, BRAC Bank, City Bank and Pubali Bank increased.

According to LankaBangla financial portal, the four banks pulled DSEX by 54 points with a total increase of 132 points.

At the DSE, shares of 36 banks listed, but trading continued for 31 banks as shares trading of five Islamic banks suspended as the banks were merged into a one entity namely Sammilito Islami Bank.

On Sunday, the share price of 39 banks increased, only a bank share declined and shares price remained unchanged for a bank.

EBL Securities said, the capital bourse staged a partial rebound following the steep selloff in recent sessions, as bargain hunters turned back to accumulate equities at attractive price points; however, overall investor participation remained subdued amid lingering uncertainties surrounding the ongoing Middle East conflict.

It said, market indices maintained an upbeat trajectory throughout the session, supported by broad-based price appreciation across most scrips. However, cautious investors remained on the sidelines, closely monitoring market direction amid the absence of any visible progress toward a resolution or ceasefire in the ongoing conflict.

Apparently, market turnover decreased by 21.8% to Tk4.2 billion from Tk5.3 billion in the previous session. On the sectoral front, Bank stocks accounted for the highest share of turnover by 25.5%, followed by Pharma by 19.3% and Textile by 8.9%.

Gainers, losers

Islami Bank Bangladesh topped the gainer list hitting upper circuit, a highest single day limit capped by the regulator, by 9.89% to Tk41.10 each at the DSE.

Followed by City Bank by 8.24% to Tk30.2 each, AB Bank by 8.19% to Tk6.6 each, EBL NRB Mutual Fund by 8% to Tk2.7 each, and First Bangladesh Fixed Income Fund by 8% to Tk2.7 each.

While on the losing side, Green Delta Insurance topped the loser list as its shares price fell by 7.10% to Tk52.3 each, followed by Vanguard AML Rupali Bank Balanced Fund by 5.35% to Tk5.3 each, Dulamia Cotton Spinning Mills by 5.32% to Tk112 each, Renwick Jajneswar by 1.93% to Tk521.8 each, and Golden Jubilee Mutual Fund by 1.69% to Tk5.8 each.

Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC has approved a proposal to bring little-known US-based B100 Holdings LLC as a strategic investor in its mobile financial services subsidiary mCash Ltd, aiming to strengthen the platform's capital base and expand its digital financial services.

The decision was taken at a board meeting of Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC held at its head office in Dhaka on Sunday, according to a price-sensitive disclosure issued the same day.

Under the proposal, the New York-based B100 Holdings will join as a strategic partner in mCash Ltd, which operates the bank's mobile financial services platform. The investment will be subject to compliance with legal and regulatory requirements and approvals from relevant authorities.

Following the announcement, Islami Bank's share price rose 9.89% on the Dhaka Stock Exchange yesterday, reaching Tk41.10. The bank's market capitalisation increased by around Tk690 crore to Tk6,617 crore.

According to the disclosure, the paid-up capital of mCash will be increased in phases to Tk500 crore. Islami Bank will retain at least 51% ownership of the subsidiary, while B100 Holdings may acquire up to 48.99% of shares through subscription, subject to approval from the mCash board and regulators.

Under rules set by Bangladesh Bank, commercial banks must hold a minimum 51% stake in mobile financial service providers. Islami Bank said it would comply with the requirement while allowing the foreign investor to hold a maximum of 48.99% of shares.

Based on the proposed capital structure, B100 Holdings could invest nearly Tk245 crore in the company.

Omar Faruk Khan, managing director of Islami Bank, said the proposal originated from the US firm.

"They approached us with the investment proposal and our board has accepted it in principle because they committed to bring funds as needed, potentially from the Middle East," Omar told The Business Standard.

He said the bank would now examine the firm's financial strength and capability before finalising any agreement.

"At this stage, we are still in the initial phase. After reviewing their strength and ability, we will make the final decision regarding the partnership," he added.

Omar also acknowledged that mCash has struggled to secure a strong position in the market since its launch more than a decade ago.

"Despite operating for over ten years, mCash remains in a relatively weak position compared to other mobile financial service providers. Our goal is to develop mCash into a competitive platform similar to bKash, the country's leading MFS provider," he said.

To achieve that goal, the bank plans to increase investment in the platform and bring in a strategic partner capable of supporting long-term expansion.

Limited information about US investor

Public information about B100 Holdings, however, remains limited. According to the New York company registry, the firm was established on 22 December 2025 in New York. Arman Chowdhury is listed as its co-founder and chairperson.

Several stock market analysts contacted by The Business Standard said they were unfamiliar with both the individual and the newly formed investment firm.

Information available online indicates that Arman has been serving as national executive director of the Muslim Ummah of North America since 2021. He is also associated with New York's Baitul Mamur Masjid and Community Center as its president.

According to the company's website, B100 Holdings aims to invest in Bangladesh's economic infrastructure by supporting 100 large business enterprises through institutional capital, governance frameworks, and operational expertise.

The firm describes itself as a principal investor and long-term sponsor that deploys capital on a deal-by-deal basis alongside select institutional partners.

It says this model allows it to focus on long-term value creation without the constraints of traditional fund cycles or forced exits.

Islami Bank launched the mCash service in December 2012 and operated the platform directly through its own infrastructure for more than a decade. In January this year, the bank spun off the service into a separate subsidiary to strengthen governance and attract external investment.

The newly formed mCash Ltd has an authorised capital of Tk1,000 crore and an initial paid-up capital of Tk50 crore.

Iran has agreed to provide Bangladeshi oil ships with safe passage as the Bangladesh government has intensified efforts to maintain a stable fuel supply through multiple strategic measures amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Bangladesh has sought assurances from Iran for the safe passage of its oil and LNG-carrying vessels through the Strait of Hormuz as escalating conflict in the Middle East threatens one of the world's most critical energy shipping routes.

Iran has agreed that Bangladeshi ships will be allowed to pass through the strategic waterway after notifying Iranian authorities before entering the strait, energy officials said, easing immediate concerns over the country's fuel supply.

Meanwhile, a vessel carrying 27,000 tonnes of diesel arrived at Chattogram port from Singapore yesterday, and four more ships carrying 1,20,205 tonnes of fuel are scheduled to arrive at the port later this week, energy officials have said.

They said to meet April's demand, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources has begun the process of importing 3 lakh tonnes of diesel from alternative sources through direct procurement.

An official said Bangladesh is planning direct procurement outside long-term contracts, as deliveries under existing agreements have become uncertain following the war.

Under normal circumstances, the country's daily diesel demand is 12,000 tonnes, but the government is currently supplying 9,000 tonnes per day. If the current supply continues, the five incoming shipments totalling 147,205 tonnes will cover 16 days of national demand.

On Monday morning, Mohammad Arif Sadek, the ministry's public relations officer, confirmed the arrival of a fuel vessel at Chattogram port and said another ship was expected on Monday night.

China and India signal support

India and China have also expressed willingness to assist Bangladesh in supplying fuel. Finance Minister Amir Khasru confirmed seeking cooperation from India and China to ensure energy security, stating:

"Not only India and China, we have approached several countries to secure fuel supplies and maintain communication with them. There is no reason for a fuel crisis."

After a meeting with Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury and Energy Minister Tuku yesterday, the ambassador China Yao Wen confirmed his country's interest in supporting Bangladesh.

After the meeting, Yao Wen said Bangladesh and China will work together to resolve fuel issues, and China is eager to provide fuel assistance.

Option to import more diesel from India

Under an existing agreement between BPC and India's Numaligarh Refinery Limited, the Indian state-owned refinery is scheduled to supply 180,000 tonnes of diesel annually through the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline.

Of this volume, around 120,000 tonnes have already been confirmed, but Bangladesh still has the option to import an additional 60,000 tonnes depending on its demand.

According to BPC officials, the additional supply being explored would mainly cover the last week of March and the entire month of April, as two diesel cargoes scheduled for early March failed to arrive within their delivery windows.

Monir Hossain Chowdhury, Joint Secretary (Operations) of the Energy Division, told TBS that several suppliers have proactively offered to sell fuel to Bangladesh. The BPC will review these offers and forward them to the ministry for approval.

4 more tankers due this week

Port sources said tanker Xiu Chi, carrying 27,204 tonnes of diesel from Singapore, entered Chattogram port yesterday. Shipping agents said four more diesel tankers are scheduled to arrive in the coming days.

Another tanker, Lian Huan Hu, was expected to reach the port last night from Singapore with nearly 30,000 tonnes of diesel. The tanker SPT Themis is scheduled to arrive on Thursday carrying 30,484 tonnes.

Tanker carrying 27,000 tonnes of diesel reaches Ctg Port, 4 more due this week

Two additional vessels – Raffles Samurai and Chang Hang Hong Tu – are expected to reach the port on Saturday, each carrying around 30,000 tonnes of diesel.

Nazrul Islam, managing director of Pride Shipping, the local agent for the four tankers, told TBS that the vessels are expected to arrive within a week according to schedule.

Emergency imports under consideration

Amid supply uncertainty, the government has moved to secure around 300,000 tonnes of diesel from alternative suppliers outside its existing long-term contracts.

Officials said the fuel will be procured through the direct procurement method (DPM) to expedite the process. Discussions are currently underway with several North American suppliers to arrange emergency diesel shipments.

Speaking to TBS on Sunday, Energy Secretary Md Saiful Islam said the government is exploring every available option to ensure adequate diesel supply for April.

"So far we don't have that many problems in March. Keeping the supply uncertainty from long term contracts, we are exploring all sources to ensure around 3 lakh tonnes of diesel under DPM so that there is no disruption in the supply chain," he said.

Regarding when the supply will be confirmed from alternative sources, the energy secretary said, "We are trying to confirm delivery as soon as possible."

The authorities began exploring alternative sourcing options early, anticipating the lengthy approval process required for emergency purchases.

"There is an approval process involving the government's purchase committee. That is why we started the process earlier," Saiful Islam said.

Currently, Bangladesh imports refined petroleum products from eight countries – Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, China, Indonesia, Thailand, India, Oman and Kuwait.

However, officials noted that a significant portion of petrol and octane is produced locally, helping reduce reliance on imports for these products.

Import disrupted

According to a fuel import scenario prepared by BPC on 7 March and presented before Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, the country planned to import 293,000 tonnes of diesel in March.

However, around 60,000 tonnes of diesel cargoes have either been deferred or cancelled, raising concerns about supply stability.

In its briefing to the prime minister, BPC noted that despite having contracts with suppliers from both the Near East and the Far East, geopolitical developments have made fuel supply increasingly uncertain.

In one instance, Singapore-based Vitol Asia cancelled a scheduled octane shipment for March, citing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

According to BPC data as of 7 March, Bangladesh currently has 129,000 tonnes of diesel in reserve, which is enough to meet demand for around 14 days. The country also has 23,000 tonnes of octane, sufficient for about 25 days, and 15,000 tonnes of petrol, enough for roughly 15 days.

In addition, BPC reported 67,000 tonnes of furnace oil in reserve, which could last about 49 days, while Jet A-1 aviation fuel reserves stand at around 60,000 tonnes, also enough for roughly 49 days.

Mobile courts launched nationwide

To ensure uninterrupted fuel supply, the Cabinet Division has instructed all deputy commissioners to operate mobile courts across the country. This directive was issued in a letter from the Cabinet Division on Monday.

District authorities have been directed to take necessary measures accordingly.

Additionally, the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has established central and regional monitoring and control cells to closely track fuel supply, maintain market stability, and resolve complaints promptly.

Special attention is being given to ensure that fuel supply for irrigation during the ongoing Boro season is not disrupted.

The Bangladesh Independent Power Producers' Association (Bippa) has urged the government to clear outstanding power bills owed to private power plants, warning that delays could disrupt fuel imports and lead to load-shedding during the upcoming summer.

The association said power producers are struggling to open letters of credit (LCs) to import fuel due to delayed payments at a time when global energy markets remain volatile amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

The appeal was made at a press conference held in the capital yesterday by Bippa, which represents privately owned power plants in the country. Former Bippa president Imran Karim presented an overview of the current power sector situation at the event.

Bippa said outstanding payments owed to private power producers have reached around Tk14,000 crore, making it increasingly difficult for companies to maintain operations.

Under existing power purchase agreements, electricity bills are supposed to be settled within 30 days, but payments are currently being delayed by 180 to 270 days, according to the association.

Such prolonged delays have created severe financial pressure for power plant operators, making it difficult to procure fuel and sustain electricity generation.

"If the payments are cleared, fuel can still be imported even under difficult global conditions, including the ongoing war situation," Imran said.

To address the issue, Bippa suggested that the government could adopt a similar approach to the one taken by the previous interim administration.

Imran noted that the interim government had earlier issued Tk5,000 crore in bonds to partially clear outstanding payments to power producers.

The move, along with regular bill payments afterward, helped stabilise the sector and ensured uninterrupted electricity supply during last summer, he said.

"As a result, there was no major load-shedding during last year's summer," Imran said, adding that the current government could also issue bonds or allocate funds to settle the dues and avoid a similar crisis this year.

Effective power capacity lower than installed capacity

Although Bangladesh's installed electricity generation capacity exceeds 28,000 megawatts (MW), a large portion of that capacity remains idle due to fuel shortages and other operational constraints, power plant owners noted.

According to Bippa, more than 6,000MW of generation capacity remains unused because of insufficient gas supply, while another 1,626MW is currently offline for maintenance.

In addition, solar power is unavailable at night, and many diesel-fired plants remain shut due to high operating costs.

As a result, the country's effective available capacity during peak demand stands at around 18,627MW, and actual generation could reach about 18,000MW if fuel supplies remain stable, Imran said.

Fuel costs rising faster than electricity tariffs

Imran also pointed out that global fuel price increases have significantly raised electricity generation costs.

According to his analysis, fuel costs for power generation have risen by about 95% over the past six years, while electricity tariffs have not increased at the same pace.

During the same period, operational costs of power plants have increased by 55%, adding further financial pressure on plant operators.

Meanwhile, about 70% of electricity consumption in Bangladesh occurs in residential, commercial, and agricultural sectors, where tariffs have increased by only 54% over the same period.

As a result, higher electricity generation would increase the government's subsidy burden, as production costs continue to rise faster than retail tariffs.

To ease pressure on electricity generation costs, Bippa called on the government to temporarily withdraw import duties on fuel used for power generation.

Specifically, the association proposed removing 34% duty on imported fuel oil and 22% duty on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG).

According to Bippa, such measures could help lower generation costs at a time when global energy prices remain volatile.

Gas shortages limiting power generation

Bippa President David Hasanat also noted that managing electricity demand during the upcoming summer could be challenging due to multiple constraints.

"The situation could become even more complicated due to the ongoing Iran war, which is affecting global fuel markets," he said.

Hasanat added that around 23% of the country's power plants are currently unable to operate due to gas shortages, further straining the electricity system. He noted that increasing gas supply in the short term remains difficult because of infrastructure limitations.

"There is no immediate scope to significantly increase gas supply, and the infrastructure needed to expand imports is also limited," he said.

Fuel reserves may last until early April

According to Imran, oil-based power plants currently have enough fuel reserves to operate until 7-10 April, although the situation may vary across facilities depending on individual fuel stocks.

"To keep these plants operational, it is essential to ensure a steady fuel supply and timely payment of bills," he said.

Responding to questions about reducing generation costs, Imran said operators of furnace-oil-based power plants have already made concessions.

He noted that the interim government had reduced the service charge on fuel imports from 9% to 5%, which plant owners accepted.

He also said power producers are not charging interest on overdue payments, despite bills remaining unpaid for up to nine months.

"In contrast, some suppliers in other sectors shut down operations due to unpaid bills, but private power plants have continued operating despite the outstanding dues," he said.

Despite the challenges, Hasanat said private power producers remain committed to supporting the government in maintaining the electricity supply.

"We are ready to support the government in maintaining a stable electricity supply. After all, if the country survives, we all will survive," he said.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman will inaugurate the Family Card programme today (10 March) at the T&T playground in Banani, adjacent to the Korail slum, aiming to deliver economic benefits directly to citizens' doorsteps.

At a press conference on the launching programme at the Secretariat yesterday (9 March), Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury described the initiative as non-political, non-partisan, and fully transparent, noting that it is designed to ensure the benefits of the nation's economy reach every citizen.

Social Welfare Minister Abu Zafar Md Zahid Hossain detailed the programme, explaining that under the pilot phase, 37,567 female-headed households have been selected to receive allowances ahead of Eid in March.

Each eligible family will receive one Family Card covering up to five members, with additional cards issued proportionally for larger households, he added. "If a woman head of household already receives other government allowances, those will be cancelled, while benefits to other family members will continue," the minister explained.

Under the pilot, each household will receive a monthly allowance of Tk2,500, with plans to expand to include food assistance in the future.

A total of Tk38.07 crore has been allocated for the pilot, with Tk25.15 crore (66%) earmarked for direct cash transfers and Tk12.92 crore (34%) for data collection, system development, card preparation, and programme management.

The pilot covers 13 city corporations and 15 wards across 13 districts, supported by committees at ward, union, upazila, and district levels.

Ward committees collected detailed household information—including socio-economic status, family size, education, housing, assets (TV, fridge, computer, mobile), and remittance flows—which was then verified at union and upazila levels.

During the pilot, data from 67,854 female-headed households were analysed using a Proxy Means Test (PMT) or poverty index, classifying families into five categories: ultra-poor, poor, lower-middle-class, middle-class, and upper-class.

After verification, 47,777 households in the ultra-poor, poor, and lower-middle-class categories were confirmed, and the final 37,567 households were selected based on factors such as existing government allowances, employment, or pension status.

"The entire selection process is software-driven through the PMT, leaving no room for corruption, favouritism, or manual interference," the Social Welfare Minister stressed.

Each selected household will receive a modern smart Family Card equipped with a chip, QR code, and Near-field communication (NFC) technology to ensure safety and durability.

Minister Zahid Hossain said that households were deemed ineligible if any member received a salary, allowance, grant, or pension from government, autonomous, or state-owned institutions, if the female head worked as a teacher or staff member in an MPO-listed institution, or if the household owned commercial licenses, large businesses, luxury assets (cars, air conditioners), or savings certificates worth Tk500,000 or more.

The Family Card allowance will be disbursed directly from the Social Welfare Ministry's social security budget to beneficiaries' mobile wallets or bank accounts via the G2P (Government-to-Person) system, he added.

During data collection, beneficiaries' account information was gathered to ensure timely, accurate, and interference-free delivery of funds directly to recipients

The government is managing the country's overall economic activities with a careful eye on the global economic situation and various crises, Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said today (9 March).

"The economic challenges arising from wars and other global factors cannot be avoided. Our current activities and future economic projections are determined with these realities in mind," he said at a press conference held at the ministry's conference room to inaugurate the "Family Card" programme which launches tomorrow.

Responding to a question on whether the government would continue austerity measures in spending, he said all ministries have been instructed to plan programmes according to the prevailing situation.

"The upcoming budget will also be prepared considering these circumstances," he added.

Asked about securing oil supply from China, Khasru said, "For energy security, we are seeking cooperation from various countries. Energy security is extremely important for the country, so the government is in discussions with all countries that can supply energy and seeking their support."

He also highlighted the "Family Card" initiative as a landmark poverty reduction effort.

"To my knowledge, such a large-scale poverty alleviation programme has not been undertaken in Bangladesh before. Through this, we aim to deliver economic benefits directly to people at their doorstep," he said.

The minister emphasised that the initiative reflects a gradual shift toward a welfare state in Bangladesh.

"In the past, economic benefits were distributed through patronage systems. Now, the government is directly reaching the common people," he noted.

Mobile telecom operators have urged the regulator to ensure priority allocation of fuel and electricity for network operations, warning that disruptions in supply could affect nationwide connectivity.

Limited availability of fuel at filling stations is creating risks for maintaining uninterrupted telecom services across the country, Association of Mobile Telecom Operators of Bangladesh (AMTOB) said in a letter to the chairman of the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) yesterday (9 March).

Companies have also expressed concern about sustaining operations during the upcoming Eid holidays amid government indications of possible load shedding.

AMTOB Secretary General Mohammad Zulfikar said mobile operators rely heavily on diesel- and petrol-powered generators to keep networks running, particularly during power outages.

"If fuel supply becomes uncertain, it could hamper maintenance activities, generator operations and emergency responses required to keep the telecom network functioning," he said.

The association noted that telecommunications have been declared an essential service by the government and currently support more than 185 million mobile subscribers across the country.

Telecom infrastructure also plays a vital role in enabling emergency communication, public safety services, digital financial transactions, business operations and government services.

According to the letter, reduced fuel availability at some filling stations has already created operational challenges for operators.

AMTOB warned that insufficient fuel supply could lead to network outages across large geographical areas, instability in data centres, equipment damage and longer service restoration times.

To prevent such disruptions, the association requested the regulator to coordinate with relevant authorities to ensure priority fuel allocation for mobile network operators and tower companies.

It also called for uninterrupted fuel supply for core network facilities and data centres, assured fuel availability for base transceiver stations (BTS) and maintenance vehicles, and reduced load shedding at critical telecom infrastructure sites.

Bangladesh has been facing persistent energy challenges in recent times as the country remains heavily dependent on imported fuels, including liquefied natural gas, petroleum products and coal.

The war in the Middle East has raised concern of fuel supply, triggering the government to adopt rationing measures. Conflict has also sparked panic buying, creating shortages at fuel pumps.