Bangladesh lost an estimated $68.3 billion through trade-related illicit financial flows between 2013 and 2022, according to a report by Global Financial Integrity released on Thursday (26 March).

Trade misinvoicing involves deliberately falsifying the value or quantity of imports and exports to evade taxes, shift profits, or transfer capital abroad, report said.

The report finds that Bangladesh is among the top 10 countries in developing Asia in terms of total trade value gaps.

In Bangladesh's case, a significant portion of the illicit flows is linked to trade with advanced economies. The report estimates that around $33 billion of the total gap occurred in transactions with countries such as the United States and those in Europe.

The findings suggest that Bangladesh's exposure is not limited to regional trade but is tied to global supply chains, particularly in export-oriented sectors and import-dependent industries.

Compared to other South Asian countries, Bangladesh's losses are substantial but remain far lower than India's, which recorded more than $1.06 trillion in illicit trade flows over the same period.

Sri Lanka, by contrast, recorded a smaller volume of about $24 billion in trade gaps with advanced economies, though its economic vulnerability amplifies the impact of such leakages.

Across developing Asia, trade-related illicit financial flows reached an estimated $1.69 trillion in 2022 alone, underscoring the scale of the challenge.

Major economies such as China, Thailand and India account for the bulk of these flows, though the problem spans countries of all sizes.

The study said, such practices remain deeply embedded across Asian economies, with no clear sign of decline over the past decade.

When the money market is already stressed by high government borrowing, newly introduced programmes such as the Family Card and farm loan waivers are likely to create additional fiscal pressure, potentially crowding out the private sector.

The extra spending on social programmes may come at the cost of higher inflation, as low revenue earnings will prompt the government to source funds from banks, raising interest rates and increasing business costs.

A senior Bangladesh Bank executive said that in this situation, the government has been aggressively seeking external funding sources to reduce borrowing pressure on the domestic market.

Government borrowing already grew nearly 30% year-on-year in January, surpassing the monetary target of 21.6% set for FY26 by Bangladesh Bank. The call money rate, which fell below the policy rate of 10% at the beginning of March, surged above it again amid rising import costs following the Iran war.

For example, average call money rates for short notice loans jumped to 10.50% on 16 March from 9.85% on 5 March, central bank data shows. Meanwhile, the dollar exchange rate, which had remained stable for months, rose to nearly Tk123 from Tk122.30 in just two weeks in March.

Bangladesh Bank has allowed the taka to depreciate, prioritising the protection of foreign exchange reserves amid rising import costs. Faster taka depreciation will directly affect inflation, which began rising in February, exceeding 9%.

The senior Bangladesh Bank executive told The Business Standard that rates for treasury bills and bonds are expected to rise soon, as the government will need to borrow more to fund newly introduced social programmes and cover rising energy bills.

He added that government borrowing is likely to increase significantly in May and June when the programmes are implemented on a full scale. "The government can meet the demand from both domestic and external sources," he said.

Among domestic sources, borrowing will come through treasury bills, bonds, and savings instruments, as the central bank is not planning to print money. Higher treasury bills and bond rates will influence market lending rates, which will ultimately impact inflation, he added. Central bank data shows inflation, which had eased for a few months, began rising again in February, surpassing 9%.

The government may consider revising the ceiling of savings instruments from the existing Tk60 lakh, said the executive, who wished to remain anonymous. However, sourcing foreign funds is the better option to ease liquidity stress and maintain balance in the money market, he added.

In this context, the government is emphasising the inflow of foreign loans from India and China, Bangladesh's major lenders, to meet the additional demand, said a senior Bangladesh Bank official.

The government has already begun addressing issues surrounding projects financed under India's line of credit (LoC) and the resumption of Export Credit Agency (ECA) support for capital machinery imports from China, which had stalled.

Over the past two years, the government has largely relied on bank borrowing to meet operational costs due to low foreign fund inflows. The fuel price surge following the Iran war intensified the funding crisis, prompting the government to seek foreign sources.

Prime Minister's Economic and Planning Adviser Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said the government is reallocating funds from various sectors and considering low-interest loans from international development agencies to ensure sufficient fuel imports.

Speaking to journalists on 15 March, he added that the government is also exploring support from institutions such as the IMF and World Bank.

Amid the funding crunch, the government recently launched the pilot phase of the Family Card programme, under which at least 40,000 families will receive benefits during the four-month trial.

When the programme runs in full swing, providing Tk2,500 per month to two crore beneficiaries by 2030, it will cost about Tk5,000 crore per month, roughly Tk60,000 crore annually, according to a study of think-tank Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID).

The newly introduced farm loan waiver programme will cost approximately Tk1,550 crore from the budget. The Cabinet approved a proposal on 26 February to waive agricultural loans of up to Tk10,000, including accrued interest, benefiting around 12 lakh farmers in line with the government's Election Manifesto 2026.

Expert views

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said Bangladesh cannot navigate heightened global uncertainty with business-as-usual budgeting, yet crude austerity is not the answer.

"The challenge is to spend smarter. The tax system collects too little from those most able to pay and remains overly dependent on trade taxes. Widening the net through digital invoicing, stronger compliance among large taxpayers, and fewer discretionary exemptions would strengthen revenues without raising rates," he said.

The economist added that deficit financing is becoming more difficult. External borrowing is costlier in a risk-averse world, while excessive domestic borrowing risks crowding out private investment. Bangladesh cannot rely indefinitely on expensive bank borrowing or short-term instruments to close structural gaps.

Ezazul Islam, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM), said the new government will need substantial funds in the coming days to implement the new pay scale for government employees and social programmes like the Family Card, farmer support, and agriculture loan waivers.

He warned that continued high borrowing would increase the debt burden when the debt-to-GDP ratio is already 40%, and inflation will not ease as expected. The government now faces two options: compromise traditional development projects like roads and transport to reduce budgetary pressure, or increase foreign borrowing. Major sources of foreign borrowing include the IMF, Asian Development Bank, World Bank, and Islamic Development Bank, which the government has already begun contacting.

US consumer sentiment fell more than expected in March, touching a three-month low, as war in the Middle ​East stoked inflation worries and cast a shadow over the economic outlook.

The decline, reported by the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers on Friday, occurred across political ‌party affiliation and age groups, with large decreases among middle- and higher-income consumers as well as those owning stocks.

The month-long US-Israeli war with Iran has sent global oil prices surging more than 50 percent. Retail gasoline prices have jumped $1 to an average of $3.98 per gallon, data from motorist advocacy group AAA showed, while the S&P 500 index has dropped about 6.7 percent.

Though the correlation between consumer sentiment and spending is weak, rising gasoline prices and falling share ​values, combined with a stagnant labor market, could undercut consumption and hamper economic growth. Higher-income households have led consumer spending, underpinned by robust wealth levels.

“Sentiment hit a record low ​in mid-2022 when inflation was at its highest level in decades, but the economy held up with solid GDP growth and an historically strong labor market,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial.

“But if the conflict drags on, gasoline prices move even higher in the summer driving season, and stocks continue to falter, consumers ​could throw in the towel and start to pull back on their spending.”

The University of Michigan said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a final reading of 53.3 this month, the lowest ​reading since December, from 55.5 earlier. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would ease to 54.0.

It was at 56.6 in February and is not too far from a record low touched in June 2022. The survey’s short-run economic outlook gauge plunged 14 percent, while a measure of year-ahead expected personal finances sank 10 percent. Declines in long-run expectations were more subdued, the survey showed.

“These patterns suggest that, at this time, consumers may not expect recent ​negative developments to persist far into the future,” said Joanne Hsu, the director of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers.

“These views are subject to change, however, if the Iran conflict ​becomes protracted or if higher energy prices pass through to overall inflation.”

WILL GASOLINE PRICES OFFSET TAX CUTS?

There are worries that gasoline prices, should they continue to rise, could cut into the fiscal boost from tax cuts ‌ushered in by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Economists at JPMorgan estimated that could happen if the national average price rises close to $5 per gallon or more. Prices at the pump in California and Washington state have already topped $5 per gallon.

“As things stand now, the increase in gasoline prices to date is unlikely to fully offset the magnitude of lower taxes,” they wrote in a note.

“Of course, even if higher gas prices don’t fully offset the OBBBA, they would still reduce real spending power compared to what was expected before the Mideast conflict began. Higher gas prices are also ​mostly felt more evenly across the income distribution.”

Stocks ​on Wall Street extended their decline, with ⁠the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes dropping to more than six-month lows. The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies. US Treasury yields were mixed.

The survey’s measure of consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to 3.8 percent this month from 3.4 percent earlier in March and ​in February. Consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next five years slipped to 3.2 percent from 3.3 percent last month.

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark ​overnight interest rate in the ⁠3.50 percent -3.75 percent range this month. In updated projections released alongside the decision, US central bank policymakers anticipated higher inflation and only a single reduction in borrowing costs this year.

“The evidence would appear to be for now that the inflation impact of high gas prices is expected to be temporary, but it would appear that the year-ahead expectation is set to jump above 4 percent in the preliminary April report,” said ⁠John Ryding, chief ​economic advisor at Brean Capital.

“From a Fed perspective, the majority of the (policy-setting) committee might interpret this to mean that ​rates should be held steady.”

Bangladesh faces a looming economic challenge stemming from global oil price crossing a critical threshold of US$120 per barrel amid the escalating Mideast tensions, with an extra burden on its cautiously tailored budget.

Researchers at a press briefing Saturday warned that such an oil surge could impose a huge burden of Tk 610 billion in additional annual spending to fuel the country's economy.Global economy trends

Their note of alert is underlined with serious concerns about economic sustainability, industrial growth, and employment.

Change Initiative has carried out a study on this score where the researchers have revealed that every $10 increase in Brent crude-oil price per barrel translates into nearly $1 billion in extra annual expenditure for Bangladesh.

The country imports about 95 per cent of its energy needs, and this dependency leaves the economy "highly vulnerable to global market volatility", the study notes, in the wake of energy blockages in the Gulf amid the hit-and-kill US-Israel war against Iran.

If prices remain above $120 for an extended period, the annual cost could balloon to $4-5 billion, creating unprecedented fiscal pressure.

The small and medium enterprise (SME) sector, which accounts for 70-80 per cent of national employment and contributes 25-30 per cent to gross domestic product (GDP), is expected to be hit hardest. Rising fuel costs would increase production expenses, reduce competitiveness, and potentially trigger widespread job losses.

Analysts caution that prolonged subsidies are not a viable solution, and the government may eventually be forced to adjust energy prices, risking de-industrialization.

Chief researcher M. Zakir Hossain Khan points out a blessing in disguise out of the crisis, emphasizing that "while the situation is dire, it also presents a chance for Bangladesh to accelerate its transition toward renewable energy".

He notes that countries such as China, India, and Vietnam have successfully invested in renewables to stabilize their industries, and Bangladesh must follow suit to safeguard its future.

The study reveals that rooftop solar installations in industrial zones could reduce operating costs by 30-50 per cent while cutting carbon emissions significantly.

In fact, utilizing just 10 per cent of unused space in industrial parks could generate 57 megawatts (MW) of solar power, reducing emissions by over 51,000 tons of carbon dioxide annually.

Expanding this to 20 per cent could double the capacity, further strengthening energy independence.

Researchers also highlighted the potential for carbon-credit revenues, estimating that Bangladesh could earn around $0.40 million annually by reducing emissions in SME clusters.Bangladesh tourism guide

Sectors such as leather, plastics, packaging, and light engineering have been identified as priority areas, with the potential to cut emissions by up to 49 per cent through targeted interventions.

The urgency is underscored by Bangladesh's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target, which aims to reduce 69.84 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide emissions by 2035.

Achieving this goal will require immediate and decisive action to transform the energy landscape.

As global oil prices continue to climb, Bangladesh stands at a crossroads.

Failure to act could result in economic instability, job losses, and weakened industrial capacity.

But with bold investments in solar and other renewable sources, the country has the opportunity to not only mitigate the crisis but also position itself as a leader in sustainable industrial growth, the study concludes.

Domestic gold prices have fallen by nearly Tk 36,000 per bhori over the past 23 days, driven by a sharp decline in global rates amid shifting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The price of gold per bhori stood at around Tk 2.41 lakh yesterday, down from around Tk 2.77 lakh on March 3, according to data from the Bangladesh Jeweller’s Association (Bajus).

The domestic market has adjusted prices 12 times between March 1 and March 25, with 10 of those changes reflecting downward revisions.

The decline comes after a month-long rally that saw gold prices more than double in just over a year. In January 2025, 22-carat gold was priced at around Tk 1.40 lakh per bhori. By the start of this year, it had risen to Tk 2.22 lakh, and peaked at Tk 2.86 lakh on January 29, 2026.

The recent drop mirrors volatility in international markets, where gold prices have fallen by $757.43 per ounce over the past 30 days.

On Monday, spot gold briefly touched $4,100 per ounce, its lowest level since December 11, before recovering to $4,545.34 by yesterday, buoyed by a weaker dollar and falling oil prices.

The rebound followed US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day delay in planned strikes on Iran’s power plants, which also sent crude oil prices down 13 percent. However, the recovery has not offset the broader monthly decline.

Bajus said the prices of pure gold in the country’s bullion market have fallen, prompting adjustments in gold rates. However, the main reason behind the decline is the continued drop in global gold prices.

Dewan Aminul Islam Shahin, chairman of Bajus’ standing committee on pricing and price monitoring, told The Daily Star that local gold prices depend on multiple factors -- international benchmark, import costs, and demand.

He explained that local prices reflect a lag tied to import cycles. Gold imported into Bangladesh undergoes 12 to 15 days of processing before reaching retail outlets, which delays the transmission of international price movements.

“International gold markets have been highly volatile, with prices swinging sharply within hours,” Shahin said. “Gold tends to rise during global crises, such as wars or energy shortages, and falls when there are signs of peace.”

Industry insiders say renewed conflict could reverse the downward trend, and if the war drags on with rising damages, gold may once again appeal to investors.

Meanwhile, international analysts expect gold’s real yields to continue moving higher, according to a Reuters report.

With hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, and “as USD strength eases, safe-haven demand starts to reassert. This reinforces the view that gold didn’t lose its safe-haven appeal. ‌It was briefly crowded out by ⁠the USD, and now that pressure is easing,” Christopher Wong, a strategist at Singapore-based OCBC, told Reuters.

He also said gold remains sensitive to US Federal Reserve policy expectations, dollar strength, and geopolitical developments. “The rebound suggests dips may continue to find support unless real yields move meaningfully higher.”

Two liquefied petroleum gas tankers, BW Elm and BW Tyr, are crossing the ​Strait of Hormuz bound for India, according to ‌ship tracking data from LSEG and Kpler.

The US-Israeli war against Iran has all but halted shipping through the strait, but Iran ​said this week that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the waterway ​if they coordinate with Iranian authorities.

The two India-flagged vessels have crossed the Gulf area and are in ​the eastern Strait of Hormuz, the data showed. India is ​gradually moving its stranded LPG cargoes out from the strait, with four LPG tankers moved so far - Shivalik, Nanda Devi, Pine Gas, and Jag ​Vasant.

As of Friday, 20 Indian-flagged ships including five ​LPG carriers were stranded in the Gulf, Rajesh Kumar Sinha, special ‌secretary in the federal shipping ministry, said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Friday that it has reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan to unlock a new $1.2 billion package as part of its support programs for the country.

The South Asian nation is one of the largest debtors to the IMF after Argentina and Ukraine.

The IMF in a statement praised the Pakistani authorities' commitment to "pursuing sound and prudent macroeconomic policies to preserve the recent gains in macro-financial stabilization, while deepening structural reforms to accelerate growth and strengthening social protection to mitigate the impact of volatile energy prices on the most vulnerable."

The disbursement is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, according to the fund's statement.

The agreement, if approved, would give Pakistan access to $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and around $210 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, it said.

Bangladesh will import two liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from the spot market at prices lower than its recent purchases, as global fuel rates ease amid diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the US-Israel war on Iran.

The Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase yesterday approved the procurement for delivery in late April.

UK-based TotalEnergies Gas & Power Ltd offered $19.77 per MMBtu (metric million British thermal unit) for both cargoes, down from over $20 per MMBtu in deals struck earlier this month. The total cost is estimated at Tk 1,667 crore.

Officials at the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources said the lower rate reflects a recent dip in global energy prices, driven by expectations of a negotiated end to the Middle East conflict, which has outweighed concerns over supply disruptions in the Gulf.

Oil prices have softened in recent days, creating a window for cheaper spot purchases.

According to US media reports, prices fell as a diplomatic push by the US to end the war gathered pace, eclipsing news of more troops being sent to the region and the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely shut.

Brent sank as much as 7 percent toward $97 a barrel before paring the drop, while West Texas Intermediate was near $88.

The US drafted a 15-point plan to help bring the conflict to a close, according to news reports. The proposal was delivered to Iran via Pakistan.

On March 17, the government approved two LNG cargoes from Aramco Trading Singapore at $20.96 and $20.92 per MMBtu.

Prior to that, three cargoes were secured at above $20, including one from TotalEnergies at $21.58 and two from South Korea’s Posco International at $20.76. The three shipments are expected to arrive between April 5 and April 13.

Immediately after the war began on February 28, Petrobangla, the state-owned agency responsible for managing gas, bought two emergency cargoes at significantly higher rates – $28.28 per MMBtu from US-based Gunvor and $23.08 from Vitol.

In December, LNG had cost just $9.99 per MMBtu.

Since the onset of the war, the government has approved at least nine spot LNG cargoes to avoid supply shortages.

Bangladesh’s growing reliance on LNG reflects structural shifts in its energy sector. Domestic gas output has stagnated, prompting imports since 2018 through floating storage and regasification units at Moheshkhali.

In 2025, Bangladesh imported 109 LNG cargoes worth $3.88 billion, up from 86 cargoes costing $3.02 billion in 2024, according to LightCastle Partners.

Qatar remained the largest supplier, followed by Oman’s OQ Trading, while the rest were sourced from the spot market.

Gold rose more ​than 1% on Wednesday, buoyed by a drop in oil prices that eased ‌inflation worries and tempered expectations for interest rate hikes, even as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict lingered.

Spot gold was up 1.6% to $4,546.59 per ounce as of 9am EDT (1300 GMT) after hitting a four-month low on Monday. ​US gold futures for April delivery jumped 3.3% to $4,545.40.

"Gold is seeing a technical ​recovery and is also being supported by optimism that hostilities involving Iran ⁠may be diminishing, which has helped ease oil prices," said Peter Grant, vice president and ​senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

"We will need to see some further easing of inflation ​concerns to start thinking about the possibility of another US rate cut at some point this year. Gold could get back up to $5,000 if that were to become the case."

Oil prices sank after reports the ​US had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war. Pakistan has delivered ​a proposal from the US to Iran, and either Pakistan or Turkey could be venues for discussions ‌to ⁠de-escalate the war, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is planning to send thousands of airborne troops to the Gulf to give Trump more options to order a ground assault, sources have told Reuters.

Falling oil prices help ease inflation pressures, reducing the likelihood of ​prolonged higher interest rates. ​Despite being an ⁠inflation hedge, gold loses appeal in high‑rate environments as the opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding asset increases.

Analysts at SP Angel said in ​a note the recent volatility in gold prices reflects a significant ​rise in ⁠speculative investment flows in 2025.

"The recent pullback has seen a sharp exit of much of this capital. However, we see the recent trend of central bank reserve diversification as set to continue, ⁠with ​new entrants buying in 2026."

Spot gold rose 64% last ​year and prices hit an all-time high of $5,594.82 an ounce on 29 January.

Spot silver added 2.2% to $72.83, platinum gained 0.7% to $1,948.10 ​and palladium steadied at $1,439.31.

Major stock indexes eased on Thursday as Brent oil futures rose above $105 a barrel, with Iran's denial of any talks with the US dimming hopes of a quick resolution to the nearly one-month-long Middle East war.

Global debt markets also sold off, pushing yields higher, while safe-haven buying boosted the US dollar.

Prospects of a prolonged war in the Middle East fanned worries about energy supply disruptions. Oil and European natural gas rose, with Brent futuresLCOc1 up $4.77 at $106.99 a barrel and US crude futures CLc1 up at $93.64.

US President Donald Trump warned Iran on Thursday to "get serious" about a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had earlier said Tehran was reviewing the US proposal but that there were no talks on winding down the war. Iran on Thursday launched multiple waves of missiles at Israel.

The war, triggered by US–Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, has rattled global markets and effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

Stocks fell "as oil prices resumed their upward climb", said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

"Unfortunately, we're in a market that's being driven by oil prices. The rhetoric back and forth is continuing, and until talks begin, the market is going to be subject to the price of oil," he said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell 75.50 points, or 0.19 percent, to 46,342.69, the S&P 500 fell 43.59 points, or 0.68 percent, to 6,547.14 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC fell 216.95 points, or 1.02 percent, to 21,705.16.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS dropped 6.75 points, or 0.68 percent, to 988.71. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.64 percent.

Japan's Nikkei ended down 0.3 percent, while worries over rising energy costs hammered South Korea's KOSPI, which slumped 3.2 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.9 percent and China's blue chips dropped 1.3 percent.

The Philippines held an unscheduled central bank meeting due to the turmoil, while Germany's central bank head said an ECB rate hike next month was "an option".

Fears of a 2022-style inflation shock have seen traders fully price out any chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, further supporting the dollar.

Germany's two-year bond yield DE2YT=RR, sensitive to European Central Bank rate expectations, rose after falling on Wednesday. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Worries about persistent inflation also drove US Treasury yields higher. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR was last up 4.2 basis points at 4.37 percent. The two-year note's yield US2YT=RR was last up 5.4 bps at 3.934 percent.

Earlier, the yield on Japan's two-year government bond JP2YT=RR hit its highest level in 30 years at 1.33 percent, as traders cemented bets on another Bank of Japan rate hike as early as next month.

In currencies, the US dollar rose against most major currencies, reviving its safe-haven appeal.

The dollar rose on Friday and was on course for its strongest monthly gain in ​almost a year, buoyed by safe-haven demand as the Middle East war intensifies and hopes fade for de-escalation.

The yen was particularly under pressure, falling in afternoon trading ‌to its weakest since July 2024 and raising the possibility of currency market intervention by the Japanese authorities.

Iran is expected to respond on Friday to a US peace proposal to end the war, with US President Donald Trump and senior White House officials told by interlocutors to expect a counter-proposal.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the war was expected to last weeks, rather than months, and that US objectives ​could be met without ground troops.

US consumer sentiment slipped to a three-month low in March as war-driven oil price rises weighed on the economic outlook.

Safe-haven flows underpinned the ​dollar, which has also been lifted by rising expectations for a US rate increase this year. The dollar index rose 0.3 percent to 100.17, up 2.57 percent so far in March and on course for its best monthly showing since July 2025, when it rose 3.4 percent.

“Weekend trading is also, to a certain degree, ​taking hold in terms of what you might or might not want to be long or short over the weekend,” said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street ​in Boston. “The dollar has been pretty correlated with risk these days in the correct way.”

While senior Iranian officials said diplomacy continued, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterated a ban on all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that was linked to allies of the US and Israel.

Markets stayed on edge at the end of another volatile week, as Trump again extended a deadline for striking Iran’s energy facilities even as Washington and Tehran ​offered starkly conflicting accounts of diplomatic progress.

The Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 more ground troops to the region, the Wall Street Journal reported, further dimming investor hopes of ​a near-term end to the war.

Oil prices ​rose on Friday and notched weekly gains, reflecting scepticism about prospects for a ceasefire in the ‌month-old Iran war.

Brent crude futures rose by $4.56, or 4.2 percent, to $112.57 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures rose $5.16, or 5.5 percent, to settle at $99.64.

The Brent benchmark has jumped 53 percent since February 27, the day before the US and Israel ​launched strikes against Iran, while WTI has gained 45 percent since then. On a weekly basis, Brent gained ​about 0.3 percent, while WTI gained over 1 percent.

Traders are cautious about Trump’s statements about the Iran talks. An Iranian official told Reuters that a US proposal conveyed to Tehran by Pakistan ​was “one-sided and unfair”.

“Investors remain focused on the war’s longevity rather than headlines, with any prolonged closure of ​the strait (of Hormuz) or damage to infrastructure keeping a significant risk premium in prices,” StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said.

While Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure, ​the US has also sent thousands of troops to the Middle East, with Trump weighing whether ​to use ground forces to seize Iran’s strategic oil hub of Kharg Island. “We look for the oil market to develop ‌an immunity to Trump’s conciliatory comments and optimistic tone regarding a deal, especially given apparent intentions to send an additional 10,000 troops toward Iran,” oil trading adviser Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note to clients.

The Iran war has taken about 11 million barrels per day out of global oil supply, with the ​International Energy Agency describing the ​crisis as worse than the two 1970s oil shocks combined.

“Every day flows through the Strait remain restricted, more than 10 million barrels of oil are missing ... tightening the oil ​market further,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Analysts at Macquarie Group said that oil ​prices will fall quickly if the war begins to wind down soon but still remain above pre-conflict levels. However, prices could rise to $200 if the war drags on until the end of June, they added.

Elsewhere, Russian oil producers have ​warned buyers that they could declare force majeure on supplies from ​major Baltic Sea ports after Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Global brewers operating in India ​are warning of price increases and supply disruptions as a shortage of gas due to the Iran war ‌drives up the cost of glass bottles and shipping delays hit imports of aluminium needed by can makers.

India is especially vulnerable to fuel availability as the world's fourth-largest importer of natural gas, relying heavily on the Middle East for shipments, sourcing about 40% of its supply from Qatar.

Iranian attacks have partially disrupted Qatar's export capacity, tightening ​gas availability for Indian manufacturers.

The Brewers Association of India, representing global brewers Heineken, Anheuser-Busch InBev and Carlsberg told Reuters that ​glass bottle prices have surged around 20%, paper carton rates have doubled as well as other packaging materials ⁠such as labels and tape.

Gas is essential to keeping furnaces and production lines running, and shortages have forced several glass bottle makers ​to partially or fully halt operations. Aluminium can suppliers have also warned of possible reductions just as India heads into its peak summer ​season, when beer sales typically rise.

"We are asking for price increases in the range of 12-15%," the association's director general Vinod Giri told Reuters. "We have advised our member companies to individually approach states."

The rising cost of production is making some operations unsustainable, he added.

Heineken's India unit United Breweries, Anheuser-Busch InBev and Carlsberg ​did not respond to Reuters queries.

The market was worth $7.8 billion in 2024, and is expected to double by 2030, Grand View Research says. ​Heineken alone accounts for roughly half the market, while AB InBev and Carlsberg each account for 19%, the association said.

While the three companies dominate India's ‌beer sector, ⁠many smaller players such as Bira and Simba also operate in the market.

Glass, plastics industry crisis

Beer and liquor sales in India have grown steadily alongside rising urbanisation and a young, increasingly affluent population.

The Confederation of Indian Alcoholic Beverage Companies, which represents many domestic companies, said it has written to several states seeking price adjustments to offset rising freight, logistics and input costs.

India's alcohol sector is tightly regulated, and raising retail prices typically requires ​approval. Around two-thirds of India's 28 ​states must authorise changes.

"Brewers may ⁠find it difficult to maintain supplies in states that do not allow price increases," the association said.

Some glass bottle vendors are warning their clients of reduced supplies and have increased their prices.

Nitin Agarwal, CEO ​of Fine Art Glass Works in Firozabad, a glass-making hub in northern Uttar Pradesh state, said ​he has cut production ⁠by 40% at his glass bottle making factory due to gas shortages. His customers include many liquor companies as well as producers of juice and ketchup bottles.

"We've cut production and increased prices by 17-18%," Agarwal said.

The shortages have already affected India's $5 billion bottled water market with some producers increasing ⁠prices by ​11% due to rising rates of plastic bottles and caps.

And there are signs ​the crisis is spreading.

An executive at Lotte Chilsung Beverage, one of the leading South Korean soft drinks companies, told Reuters that it has up to three months of inventory ​for plastic bottles and plastic materials.

"The situation is serious," he said.

QatarEnergy on ​Tuesday ‌declared force ​majeure ​on some of ⁠its ​affected ​long-term LNG supply ​contracts, ​with counterparties including ‌customers ⁠in Italy, Belgium, ​South ​Korea, ⁠and ​China.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday on ​supply fear, as Iran denied it had talks with the United States to end the war in the ‌Gulf, contradicting US President Donald Trump who said a deal could be reached soon.

Brent futures rose $4, or 4%, to $103.94 a barrel at 0400 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $3.49, or 4%, to $91.62.

Crude futures dropped more than 10% on Monday, after Trump ordered a five-day delay to ​attacks on Iran's power plants, saying the US had talks with unnamed Iranian officials that produced "major points of ​agreement".

"By shelving the plan to strike Iranian power plants for five days, the US effectively sucked ⁠much of the 'war premium' from the oil price," said KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer.

"Today's moderate bounce is ​just the market finding its footing in the mud. Traders are aware that while the missiles are on hold, the Strait ​of Hormuz is still far from a clear waterway."

The war has all but halted shipments of about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz. However, two tankers bound for India sailed through the strait on Monday.

Tehran rejected the claim of contact ​with Washington, dismissing it as an attempt to manipulate financial markets, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had attacked US ​targets and denounced Trump's comments as "worn-out psychological operations".

"Even with a possible decrease in tensions after (Monday's) announcement from President Trump, we expect a ‌price floor ⁠of $85–$90 and a natural drift back to the $110 range until the Strait of Hormuz is restored," Macquarie said in a client note.

If the strait remains effectively shut until the end of April, Brent could still reach $150 a barrel, Macquarie said.

In the latest attacks on energy infrastructure across the region, a gas company office and a pressure-reduction station were hit in the ​Iranian city of Isfahan, while ​a projectile struck a gas ⁠pipeline feeding a power station in Khorramshahr, Iran's Fars news agency reported.

To ease supply shortage, the US temporarily waived sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil already at sea. Industry sources said ​traders have since offered Iranian crude to Indian refiners at a premium to ICE Brent.

The ​International Energy Agency ⁠Executive Director Fatih Birol on Monday said the agency is consulting Asian and European governments on possible further releases of strategic reserves "if necessary".

Still, markets are bracing for market disruption at least until April, which continue to be a tailwind beneath Brent while maintaining ⁠momentum for ​inflation, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova.

Oil executives ​and energy ministers at a conference in Houston flagged the longer-term impact of the US–Israel war with Iran on the global economy. US Energy Secretary Chris ​Wright downplayed the crisis.

The Indian rupee is poised to rise at the open on Tuesday, boosted by the dip in oil prices after US President Donald Trump hinted at talks about a resolution with Iran, although Tehran's denial of any talks kept uncertainty high.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 93.50 to 93.60 range versus the US dollar, after settling at 93.9750 in the previous session, when it hit an all-time low of 93.98.

Brent crude dropped 11% on Monday after Trump said he had ordered a delay to attacks on Iran's power plants, adding the US had held productive talks with unnamed Iranian officials. US equities advanced, the dollar dropped and US Treasury yields declined.

Part of these moves reversed in Asian trading, with Brent recovering nearly 4%. Asian equities rose, though they were well off their highs.

Iran's denial of talks with the US, coupled with a Wall Street Journal report that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are inching towards joining the fight against Tehran dented the positive sentiment triggered by Trump's remarks.

"From Asia's perspective, what matters is the physical flow of barrels (via the Strait of Hormuz), and over here time is of essence," MUFG Bank said in a note.

The 1-month USD/INR had dropped to a low of 93.35 immediately after Trump's remarks, which would have meant that the rupee would have risen past the 93 handle. However, with oil prices marching higher, the 93 level looks "out of the question", a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.

"Basically all markets are chasing headlines and looking at oil," he said. The rupee is at levels "which look really attractive, however you just do not know how Iran situation will play out and that keeps conviction low".

Indian equities were poised to open higher, according to futures, though they too were well off the highs seen after Trump's remarks.

The stock market’s performance depends on how well listed companies perform, but many firms disappointed shareholders in the last fiscal year, offering low dividends mainly due to weak sales and profits.

So far, 158 out of 228 listed companies -- excluding banks, non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), and insurance firms -- have published their financial reports and announced dividends for the last fiscal year.

Among them, 80 companies provided dividends of less than 5 percent, while 47 gave no dividend at all. 49 firms declared dividends of more than 10 percent, and 24 companies offered exactly 10 percent.

Data showed that dividends of 41 companies increased, 55 paid lower dividends, and 62 kept their payouts unchanged compared to the previous year.

Rashedul Hasan, chief executive officer (CEO) of UCB Asset Management, said dividends are “very crucial for understanding a company’s willingness to share profits with minority shareholders and its ability to generate enough cash flow.”

He added that dividends also help develop the capital market, but “we do not expect all companies to pay high dividends every year.”

He explained that if a company can generate higher returns by reinvesting cash, it should retain profits instead of paying dividends.

“However, some companies avoid sharing profits with shareholders even when they earn well, which is not a good sign. Typically, well-governed firms and multinational companies provide good dividends, even if many others make high profits.”

Rashedul said many companies faced a tough year due to high interest rates and inflation. “High inflation reduced people’s purchasing power, which tightened sales, while profitability was under pressure from high bank loan rates,” he added.

Looking ahead, he said, “There is little hope for strong improvement amid the ongoing global conflicts.”

OPERATIONAL INEFFICIENCY AND MARKET CHALLENGES

In some cases, companies struggle because they cannot manage operations efficiently over the long term. Other reasons include macroeconomic shocks, loss of competitiveness, or a lack of commitment from sponsors to run the company profitably, said Kazi Monir, CEO of Shanta Asset Management.

He added that many companies fail to sustain their performance after listing, particularly when sponsors offload their shares.

“Companies are usually listed when they are performing at their peak, and sponsors often exit within three to five years. Regulators and issue managers need to be more careful and carry out stronger checks when bringing such companies to the market,” he said.

Monir also highlighted that this trend is not unique to Bangladesh. Investors are advised to carefully assess initial public offerings (IPOs) and distinguish between strong and weak companies to avoid losses.

Weak performance among many listed firms has made the stock market less attractive to investors. Data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) shows that the benchmark index, DSEX, fell by about 13 percent during the last fiscal year.

The number of beneficiary owner (BO) accounts also dropped by 5 percent to 16.67 lakh, according to the Central Depository Bangladesh Limited (CDBL).

Despite overall weak performance, some companies continue to perform strongly and provide handsome dividends. Fifteen companies declared dividends of more than 50 percent, most of them following good corporate governance and efficient management.

Among the top dividend payers, Meghna Petroleum Limited announced a 200 percent dividend, Jamuna Oil Company Limited 180 percent, Walton Hi-Tech Industries PLC 175 percent, and Padma Oil Company Limited 160 percent. Square Pharmaceuticals PLC provided a 120 percent dividend, while Eastern Cables Limited and Eastern Lubricants Blenders Limited each declared 80 percent.

Other high-paying companies include United Power Generation & Distribution Company Limited at 65 percent, IBN Sina Pharmaceutical Industry PLC 64 percent, Renata PLC 55 percent, Mobil Jamuna Lubricants Limited 52 percent, Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) Limited 50 percent, BSRM Limited 50 percent, BSRM Steels Limited 50 percent, and Runner Automobiles PLC 55 percent.

The government is arranging fuel supply from multiple sources, despite the immense pressure on the economy due to global conflicts and the energy crisis, Prime Minister's Adviser on Finance and Planning Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said today (24 March).

"Whether it is from North America or Africa, fuel supply will be ensured. Financing for this has already been secured. We are fully committed to keeping gas and electricity supply uninterrupted," he said while responding to questions from journalists at the Deputy Commissioner's conference hall.

Earlier, he visited various industrial areas, including the BSCIC industrial towns in Kurigram and Lalmonirhat, to review long-standing development disparities in the northern region and promote industrial growth.

Discussing the government's plans to revive the northern economy, Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said, "We have already identified potential sectors for industrialisation. There is great scope for agro-based industries here. Industries can be developed for potatoes, corn, tomatoes, and dairy products from livestock. Using abundant natural resources in the region, especially gravel from rivers, glass factories can also be established."

He added, "In the past, the state never paid attention to this region. However, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has explicitly mentioned balanced regional development in her manifesto.

"Ensuring agro-based industrialisation here will generate significant employment and revive the local economy."

Bangladesh expects to receive a combined $1.3 billion instalment from the International Monetary Fund by July, merging a delayed December tranche with the next scheduled disbursement under its $5.5 billion loan programme, the finance minister said.

A final round of discussions is set to take place on the sidelines of the IMF's Spring Meetings in Washington in April, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury told reporters on Tuesday (24 March).

His remarks followed a meeting between Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and Krishna Srinivasan, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department.

"We discussed the IMF loan disbursement. The review for the $1.3 billion tranche will take place in July. In the meantime, we will prepare the national budget," said the minister, who attended the meeting.

He added that the government had also sought additional financing for fuel imports, an issue expected to feature prominently in the upcoming Spring Meetings.

Bangladesh has been under an IMF programme for several years, which is now under review, the minister said, adding that discussions on reform conditions are ongoing. However, he cautioned that not all conditions can be implemented immediately. "We have to consider what is feasible in the current economic context and implement the remaining conditions gradually."

He also pointed to rising global uncertainty stemming from tensions involving Iran, the United States and Israel, warning that Bangladesh faces similar external pressures.

Srinivasan said discussions had covered the ongoing programme, with further engagement planned ahead of the next review.

The meeting was held at the Bangladesh Secretariat, according to the Prime Minister's Office.

Central bank engagement and next steps

Bangladesh Bank Governor Mostaqur Rahman also held a courtesy meeting with IMF officials.

Following the Spring Meetings, an IMF mission is expected to visit Dhaka to conduct the programme review, a senior central bank official said. Its findings will be submitted to the IMF Executive Board.

Talks are likely to focus on the policy rate, exchange rate stability and banking sector conditions, another official added.

Bangladesh secured a $4.7 billion IMF package in January 2023 amid pressures triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. The programme was later expanded to $5.5 billion in June last year with an additional $800 million.

So far, the country has received $3.64 billion across four tranches. A scheduled disbursement last December was withheld pending engagement with an elected government.

Dhaka seeks additional $2bn for energy

Amid rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions, Bangladesh has sought an additional $2 billion in financing from the IMF, the World Bank and other development partners to support fuel imports.

Prime Minister's adviser Rashed Al Titumir recently said there were "positive indications" that multilateral lenders would step in to support the energy sector and bolster growth.

Officials said securing the next IMF tranche remains a priority in the near term.

In a 23 February letter, the Economic Relations Division said the IMF planned to meet the prime minister to assess reform progress and reaffirm cooperation with the new government.

However, key conditions remain unmet, including revenue mobilisation targets, restructuring of the National Board of Revenue, strengthening central bank independence and full adoption of a market-based exchange rate, according to finance ministry officials.

Reforms, fiscal pressures and public appeal

The finance minister said the government had inherited a fragile economy and a weak banking system, underscoring the need for gradual but sustained reforms.

"The banking sector and capital market remain weak, while the tax-to-GDP ratio is very low. These issues can be addressed through step-by-step reforms," he said.

The government has begun expanding social safety nets, including family support programmes and agricultural loan relief, while stalled development projects are being revived.

Improving the ease of doing business and reducing costs through deregulation will be key priorities in the upcoming budget, he added.

Amid concerns over fuel supply, the minister urged restraint in consumption. "The government alone cannot manage this crisis. People must be cooperative."

Despite global energy pressures, he said transport and the garments sector remained stable during Ramadan and Eid. "Together, we will overcome this crisis."

Despite a nationwide holiday for financial institutions, operations at the Chittagong Port Authority continued largely uninterrupted during the Eid break, handling over 2.5 million tonnes of cargo and nearly 55,000 TEUs of containers in seven days.

According to port data, a total of 2,508,614 tonnes of cargo was processed between 17 March and 23 March. Imports accounted for 2,361,786 tonnes, while exports stood at 146,828 tonnes.

Container throughput also remained strong, reaching 54,898 TEUs, including 28,961 TEUs of imports and 25,937 TEUs of exports.

Vessel traffic saw no major disruption during the extended holiday, with 64 ships berthing at the port – an average of more than nine vessels per day.

Daily activity peaked on 18 March, when the port handled 434,434 tonnes of cargo, the highest for the week. The same day also recorded the highest container throughput at 11,861 TEUs.

Operations slowed on Eid day, 21 March, when cargo handling dropped to 255,874 tonnes and container movement to just 962 TEUs, with only three vessels berthing, the lowest for the week.

Officials said the steady handling of cargo and containers during the holiday underscores the port's capacity to maintain essential services and keep supply chains functioning.

Syed Refayet Hamim, secretary and spokesperson for the port authority, said operations remained normal on most days except Eid, adding that special measures were taken to ensure uninterrupted supply.

He noted, however, that delivery operations were relatively slower due to transport workers being on holiday, but are expected to pick up as government and private offices reopen.

The Chittagong Port Authority typically keeps key operations running during major holidays to prevent congestion and ensure the timely delivery of essential imports and industrial raw materials.