Despite unrest across the Middle East, Bangladeshi expatriates have sent $3.33 billion to the country in the first 28 days of March, marking the highest single-month remittance in the nation's history.

The previous record was $3.29 billion in March 2025, Bangladesh Bank spokesperson and Executive Director Arief Hossain Khan told reporters today (29 March).

Speaking to The Business Standard, a treasury head at a private bank noted that remittance typically rises during the Eid period.

He added that ongoing instability in the Middle East, particularly due to the Iran conflict, has prompted many expatriates to send money home early to support their families.

Remittance inflows have been increasing since the fall of the previous Awami League government in August 2024, a trend that continues. Bangladesh Bank officials said the central bank is taking strict measures to prevent money laundering.

Various initiatives are also in place to stop fund diversion under the guise of loans. As a result, the decline in informal money transfers (hundi) has boosted remittance through legal channels.

Bank Asia PLC, a listed private bank, is set to acquire the Bangladesh operations of Bank Alfalah in a deal valued at Tk 580 crore, equivalent to approximately $47.5 million.

According to a disclosure published by Bank Alfalah at the Pakistan Stock Exchange, the decision was approved by 96.5 percent of its shareholders at the annual general meeting held on March 26.

The acquisition is contingent upon approval from the Bangladesh Bank, the State Bank of Pakistan, and other relevant regulatory bodies, as well as consent from Bank Asia’s shareholders. To this end, Bank Asia will hold an extraordinary general meeting on April 12.

In May last year, Bank Asia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Bank Alfalah to acquire its Bangladesh operations, subject to regulatory approval and completion of legal formalities.

The sale process began in April last year. Legal formalities for the transfer of assets and liabilities are still pending, while core banking system migration must also be aligned.

The audit and valuation of Bank Alfalah’s Bangladesh operations were conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Bangladesh, a UK-based multinational tax, audit, and consulting firm.

Bank Asia, which began its journey in 1999, is a pioneer in agent banking services in Bangladesh. If the acquisition is completed, it will be the third such takeover by Bank Asia in its 26 years of operation.

In 2001, the bank acquired the operations of the Canada-based Bank of Nova Scotia in Dhaka -- the first of its kind in Bangladesh’s banking history, according to Bank Asia’s website. It later took over the Bangladesh operations of Muslim Commercial Bank Ltd, a renowned Pakistani bank.

Bank Alfalah is incorporated in Pakistan, with its main capital base coming from Abu Dhabi Investment Funds. Over 51 percent of its equity is held by the Abu Dhabi Royal Family. The bank began operations in Bangladesh in 2005 and currently has seven branches in the country.

Gold demand in India saw a slight ‌uptick this week as softer bullion prices attracted some buyers, though many remained cautious and held off for further price drop, while premiums in China narrowed as physical demand slowed.

Bullion dealers in India offered discounts of up to $61 ​per ounce over official domestic gold prices this week, down from as much as $75 last ​week. These prices include 6 percent import duty and 3 percent sales tax.

Meanwhile, spot gold experienced volatile trading, flitting between $4,100 and $4,600 per ounce. Prices briefly touched a four-month low of $4,097.99 ​on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and growing expectations of hawkish US monetary policy.

“Falling prices are ​helping revive interest in gold. However, prices remain well above levels seen last year, and many buyers are postponing purchases in hopes of a bigger fall,” a Kolkata-based jeweller said.

Gold prices in India were trading around 141,000 rupees ​per 10 grams on Friday, after rising to 169,880 rupees earlier this month. Volatility in the rupee ​and global prices left jewellers sidelined, with many waiting until the financial year-end to make fresh purchases, said a ‌Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank.

In Singapore , gold was sold at prices ranging from a discount of $0.50 to premiums of $3.50 an ounce.

Singapore set out plans on Friday to turn the city state into a gold trading hub for the whole of Asia, with regulators and industry players working together to strengthen the ​market’s trading, clearing and ​storage infrastructure.

In top consumer ⁠China, bullion traded at premiums of $14-$18 an ounce over global benchmark prices this week, narrowing from a $10-$22 premium last week.

“Physical demand has cooled, reflected in lower ​premiums, but the market remains underpinned by central bank buying and quota ​restrictions,” said ⁠Bernard Sin, regional director of Greater China at MKS PAMP, adding that the unresolved Middle East conflict has tarnished gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset.

“China’s divergence is clear: while global headwinds weigh on gold, domestic ⁠resilience persists, ​sustained by policy, cultural demand, and structural supply constraints.”

In ​Hong Kong, physical gold traded at par to premiums of $1.90, while in Japan , gold was sold at par with spot prices.

Two liquefied petroleum gas tankers, BW Elm and BW Tyr, are crossing the ​Strait of Hormuz bound for India, according to ‌ship tracking data from LSEG and Kpler.

The US-Israeli war against Iran has all but halted shipping through the strait, but Iran ​said this week that "non-hostile vessels" may transit the waterway ​if they coordinate with Iranian authorities.

The two India-flagged ⁠vessels have crossed the Gulf area and are in ​the eastern Strait of Hormuz, the data showed.

India is ​gradually moving its stranded LPG cargoes out from the strait, with four LPG tankers moved so far - Shivalik, Nanda Devi, Pine Gas, and Jag ​Vasant.

As of Friday, 20 Indian-flagged ships including five ​LPG carriers were stranded in the Gulf, Rajesh Kumar Sinha, special ‌secretary ⁠in the federal shipping ministry, said.

LPG carriers Jag Vikram, Green Asha and Green Sanvi are still in the western Strait of Hormuz, LSEG data show.

India, the world's second-largest ​LPG importer, ​is battling its worst ⁠gas crisis in decades, with the government cutting supplies for industries to shield ​households from any shortage of cooking gas.

The country ​consumed ⁠33.15 million metric tons of LPG, or cooking gas, last year, with imports accounting for about 60 percent of demand. ⁠About ​90 percent of those imports came ​from the Middle East.

India is also loading LPG onto its empty vessels stranded ​in the Gulf.

Stocks at the Dhaka bourse declined further today (29 March) as investor sentiment weakened amid the escalating US-Israeli war on Iran.

Since the war began on 28 February, most trading sessions have witnessed sell-offs, dragging down share prices and overall market capitalisation, although a brief rebound was recorded in the first session after the Eid holiday on 25 March when the benchmark index gained 31 points.

Yesterday, the DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, fell by 44 points to close at 5,272, as investors adopted a cautious stance, leading to declines in 63% of traded stocks.

Besides that, DSES, the Shariah index declined 7 points to 1,066, and DS30, the blue-chip index, fell 21 points to 1,998.

Despite cautious sentiment in the market, turnover on the DSE surged 7% to Tk646 crore, while market capitalisation – the total value of companies' outstanding shares – dropped by Tk3,268 crore to Tk6.95 lakh crore.

Of the traded stocks, 114 advanced, 250 declined and 30 remained unchanged.

EBL Securities, in its daily market commentary, said the capital bourse failed to extend the recovery momentum as investors continued their cautious stance amid lingering uncertainties stemming from the Middle East conflict, triggering a broad-based sell-off across the trading board.

"The market opened on a dismal note as selling pressure remained predominant from the opening bell. Despite an attempt for partial recovery from the initial plunge, the market largely remained under sustained downward pressure throughout the session, with most scrips closing in negative territory," it said.

On the sectoral front, the Pharmaceutical and the Chemical sectors issues exerted the highest by 17.6% in total turnover, followed by the Engineering sector 12.9% and the Bank 9.9%.

Sectors displayed mixed returns, out of which the Paper, the Ceramic and the Mutual Fund exhibited the most positive returns on the bourse.

Bangladesh Autocars topped the gainer chart with its share price surging by 6.91% to Tk185.1 each, followed by BD Thai Foods by 9.30% to Tk18.8 each, PHP Mutual Fund One by 9.09% to Tk3.6 each, Techno Drugs by 8.91% to Tk33 each and IFIC First Mutual Fund by 8.33% to Tk3.9 each.

While on the loser list, Prime Textile was at the top as its share price fell 6.86% to Tk19 each, followed by Sea Pearl Beach Resorts by 5.14% to Tk38.7 each, Orion Infusion by 4.61% to Tk343 each, ICB Agrani First Mutual Fund by 4.34% to Tk6.6 each, and Phoenix Finance by 4.25% to Tk4.5 each.

The port city bourse, Chittagong Stock Exchange, also settled in a negative zone. The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) and All Share Price Index (CASPI) lost 165.4 points and 245.9 points, respectively.

The final investment size and financial implications of the agreement between Runner Automobiles PLC and Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD have yet to be determined, the company said in a disclosure to investors.

In response to a query from the Dhaka Stock Exchange, Runner Automobiles stated that the Master Supply and Manufacturing Agreement (MSMA) currently serves as a preliminary framework to assess the project's feasibility, implementation timeline and expected financial outcomes.

The company's share price closed at Tk40.30 on the Dhaka bourse today (29 March).

Earlier, Runner informed the DSE that it would assemble and supply electric vehicles of BYD, following the signing of an agreement with BYD Auto Industry Company.

The board of directors approved the MSMA on 20 March, prompting the DSE to seek further clarification, including details of the agreement and its potential financial impact.

In its explanation, Runner said the MSMA outlines a structural framework for vehicle production under the Completely Knocked Down (CKD) model, under which components will be imported and assembled locally.

The company noted that the agreement is being used to evaluate key aspects of the project, including investment size, production capacity, supply chain requirements, market potential, and projected revenues and costs.

However, it emphasised that detailed commercial and financial terms have not yet been finalised. These will be determined through separate Technical Licence Agreements (TLAs) for each vehicle model.

Under these model-specific agreements, key elements such as technology transfer, production processes, pricing, marketing strategy, and financial structure will be defined. As a result, the actual investment size and profitability of the project will depend on the terms of these future agreements.

Runner further stated that the MSMA was signed on 20 March 2025, during a BYD conference held in Shenzhen, China. However, some legal formalities from BYD's side are still pending.

The company expects these formalities to be completed within the next five to six working days. Once completed, the signed copy of the agreement will be shared with the DSE and other relevant stakeholders.

Meanwhile, the final investment, financial projections, cost structure, and other key indicators of the project remain under evaluation.

The company noted that these will require approval from both BYD and the board of directors of Runner Automobiles before being finalised.

Market insiders say that the absence of immediate financial clarity may create some uncertainty among investors in the short term.

However, considering BYD's strong position in the global electric vehicle market, the partnership could offer significant long-term potential.

Although Bangladesh's electric vehicle market is still at an early stage, rising fuel costs, growing environmental awareness, and supportive government policies are gradually increasing interest in alternative mobility solutions.

Local assembly under the CKD model could also contribute to industrialisation, job creation, and technological advancement.

Runner Automobiles said it will disclose the investment details, financial impact, and other relevant information in due course once these are finalised and approved.

Bangladesh’s exports have become a powerhouse for its economy, increasing by some $10 billion over the last six years. But when it comes to its immediate South Asian neighbours, the outward trade has remained trapped in a narrow range, failing to grow by even a billion dollars throughout.

Total global export earnings reached $43.6 billion in fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25), up from $33 billion six years ago, Bangladesh Bank (BB) data shows.

Meanwhile, exports to seven member countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) stood at just $1.9 billion in FY25, a mere 4.4 percent of the total. The figure was $1.4 billion in FY19.

A recent report by the central bank on the country’s economic engagement points out that while Bangladesh’s relationships with major partners in the European Union, the United States and the Middle East are well documented, “its economic linkages within Saarc remain surprisingly underexplored yet vitally important.”

Experts identify persistent non-tariff barriers, limited connectivity, logistical bottlenecks and weak regional cooperation frameworks as major constraints to expansion.

ONE MARKET, ONE BASKET

Even within Saarc, the trade is heavily concentrated, with India alone absorbing nearly 89 percent of Bangladesh’s regional exports, making the bloc effectively a one-market story.

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan remain peripheral, their combined share too thin to move the needle. While exports to Pakistan and Sri Lanka have shown some improvement, their scale remains too small to shift the overall trajectory. Nepal, meanwhile, has seen declining exports.

The concentration poses a huge risk – any policy shift or demand shock in New Delhi ripples immediately through Bangladesh’s entire regional trade position.

The export basket is equally narrow, dominated by ready-made garments, pharmaceuticals and leather goods.

The central bank notes that this lack of diversification limits growth prospects, especially in markets where production structures are similar and competition is high. Unlike Bangladesh’s global trade, which has gradually moved into higher-value segments, regional exports have seen little structural transformation.

The limitations of regional exports are also evident in the widening trade imbalance. Bangladesh bought $10.5 billion worth of goods from Saarc nations last fiscal year, more than five times what it sold, yielding a trade deficit of $8.6 billion.

India supplied over 90 percent of those imports, covering essential commodities and industrial inputs. Bangladesh is far more integrated with its neighbourhood as a buyer than as a seller.

THE ROADS NOT TAKEN

Policy experts point to infrastructure as the primary constraint. Except for India, Bangladesh has no direct land links with its South Asian neighbours, pointed out Khandker Golam Moazzem of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). This makes trade with the neighbours less lucrative.

For instance, he said, “Exporting to Hong Kong can sometimes cost less than trading with India, a reflection of poor logistics, inadequate land ports and inefficient customs systems.”

Outdated Safta (South Asian Free Trade Area) negative lists and persistent non-tariff barriers add further friction, he added.

Moazzem stressed the need for improved port facilities, modernised land ports and digitalised one-stop border services. He also highlighted the importance of sub-regional initiatives like BBIN and BIMSTEC to enhance connectivity through India.

Ahsan Khan Chowdhury, chairman of Pran-RFL Group, which exports nearly $100 million annually to India, identified demand mapping in each market as a prerequisite for expansion. “Saarc countries hold significant trade potential, but identifying demand in each market remains crucial for expansion.”

He flagged the “northeastern Indian states as a particular opportunity” for Bangladesh, while noting that trade became harder to sustain during the interim government period due to strained bilateral ties.

Chowdhury also called for upgrading Bangladesh’s standards testing infrastructure to meet Indian requirements and proposed an ASEAN-style duty-free framework for the bloc.

At the same time, he emphasised the need to negotiate with India to reduce trade barriers and improve port efficiency.

The contrast with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) -- which has built integrated regional value chains sustaining high intra-regional volumes – illustrates the scale of South Asia’s failure to deepen economic ties.

Sub-regional frameworks such as Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) initiative and Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec) offer a partial path forward, but analysts say physical connectivity remains the essential precondition for any meaningful expansion.

Bangladesh is eyeing an additional $2 billion from multilateral partners, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to manage pressure on external payments amid increased emergency energy purchases caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, said the central bank governor yesterday.

The disclosure comes as oil prices soar amid Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint handling one-fifth of global oil trade.

Brent crude futures, the benchmark for international oil trade, closed 4.2 percent higher at $112.57 a barrel on Friday (March 27), up from $72.48 a barrel just a month ago, the day before the US-Israel war on Iran began.

Bangladesh meets 95 percent of its oil and 30 percent of its gas needs through imports.

Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which use the Strait of Hormuz to export energy and fertiliser, are two key sources for the country. Bangladesh spends more than $10 billion a year importing petroleum and energy products.

“We are providing the government with ideas about various potential impacts of oil price increases,” said Bangladesh Bank (BB) Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman at a view-exchange meeting with senior business journalists at his office, where deputy governors and senior officials of BB were also present.

Based on different scenarios, the BB is analysing the possible impact on foreign exchange reserves. For example, if the price of oil is $210, the impact will be one type; if it is $150, it will be different; and if it is $100, the result will be different again.

“We are informing the government of these calculations,” he said, adding that discussions are underway regarding obtaining about $2 billion in balance of payment (BoP) support.

Bangladesh, already under an IMF loan programme, resumed talks with an IMF delegation in Dhaka on March 24-25 regarding the stalled $5.5 billion loan approved in January 2023, which has been on hold since the fifth review in November last year.

The country could receive a $1.3 billion tranche by June if it implements key reforms. Two instalments released together in June last year brought the total received so far to $3.6 billion.

Rahman said talks are ongoing with various international partners. “The matter of obtaining additional assistance from the IMF is also under consideration, although no formal discussions have taken place yet,” he added.

The possibility of extra financing from the Asian Development Bank and other sources is also being explored.

Appointed last month after the new government took office, Rahman said Bangladesh needs to ensure energy security and cut costs, and that the government is trying.

“The situation is changing rapidly -- sometimes there is talk of a ceasefire, and then again, fears of new conflict arise. Therefore, efforts are being made to take necessary decisions by constantly monitoring the situation and coordinating with all relevant parties.

“Our goal is only one: to keep the economy relatively stable even in this uncertain situation,” he said.

He added that in the current situation, the central bank’s policy stance is extremely important. “Especially on the exchange rate issue, we have to remain cautious. The BB is also not going to reduce the policy rate.”

“In the current situation, it is not realistic to reduce interest rates quickly, as controlling inflation is essential. It will also take time for confidence in new investments to return,” the BB chief said.

He added that over the last five to eight years, crises have become a new normal. “New problems appear every one or two years -- including Covid, war, and other challenges. It seems we have to move forward accepting this reality.”

STRENGTHENING FINANCIAL SECTOR AND INDUSTRY

The governor also spoke about keeping the financial sector free from political influence. Work is ongoing to recover defaulted loans and assets siphoned abroad. Most of the non-disclosure agreements have been signed by banks with international asset recovery firms.

Last week, the governor met with large industrial groups and employment-generating firms to address their concerns.

“Our main priorities are three -- agriculture, the SME sector, and restarting closed factories. Efforts are being made to bring closed factories back into production, even partially, because these are national assets,” he said.

Initiatives have been taken to increase cashless transactions. By June 30, the Bangla QR code will be mandatory at all payment points, with strict enforcement from July. This will increase transactions and boost revenue.

Responding to questions about troubled non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), he said efforts are being made for a quick solution. The BB had earlier decided to liquidate six NBFIs due to poor financial health and sought funds from the finance ministry to repay depositors.

“It is our responsibility to protect depositors, as they have kept money in licensed institutions,” he added, noting that the BB will also move forward with making Sammilito Islami Bank operational.

The bank was created as a state-owned entity in December last year through the merger of five troubled Shariah-based lenders. The appointment of a managing director is underway, and the board of the bank will be reconstituted.

Bangladesh opts for seeking an additional $2.0 billion in bailout from foreign development partners to buttress the balance of payments (BoP) through minimising shocks stemming from war crises in Mideast countries.Bangladesh market analysis

Bangladesh Bank (BB) Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman revealed the plan Sunday during a consultation with representatives of the country's leading print-media outlets regarding the central bank's current role in the context of ongoing tensions in the Middle East after USA-Israel duo launched attacks on Iran.

"Though it is in preliminary stage, we have already shared our plan to the IMF (International Monetary Fund) while ERD is also working with other sources for the BoP-supporting funds," he said.

The media persons expressed their concern over negative impact on foreign-currency reserves if the war in the Gulf countries prolongs further as nearly 70 per cent of the $30-billion remittance comes from this region and it might badly impact the country's BoP position.

But the central bankers attending the meeting dispelled the fear of immediate impact of the war that began on February 28 last, saying that the country has enough stock of foreign currencies to mitigate immediate shocks of the crisis if it arises.

The BB governor said energy security remained another major concern. The government is exploring bilateral arrangements and diversified sourcing to reduce dependence on single suppliers and manage import costs. Long-term strategies are also being considered to ensure stability in energy supply.

There should be no political influence in the financial sector, he said. Instructions have been given to take decisions without any form of external influence, even as they push for stronger governance and accountability.

He mentions that although the global success rate in terms of recovering stolen assets remains nominal, efforts are also underway to recover siphoned-off assets as majority of the banks signed NDA (non-disclosure agreement) with renowned global firms.Politics

On the economic front, Mr Rahman said three priority sectors have been identified to stimulate growth: agriculture, small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and the revival of idle industrial production bases.

The central bank governor stresses the importance of bringing underutilised factories back into production-even partially-to prevent further economic loss and maximize the use of national assets.

The central bank is also concerned over the country's low tax-to-GDP ratio, currently below 7.0 per cent, noting that both administrative reforms and increased economic activity are needed to improve revenue collection.

In a major policy push, the governor said, they are accelerating the transition to cashless transactions. The use of a unified Bangla QR payment system, "Bangla QR," will be made mandatory at all payment points by June 30, with enforcement measures, including penalties for noncompliance, expected from July.

Officials believe this will increase transaction transparency, reduce cash- handling costs, and boost revenue.Personal finance tools

Deputy Governor Dr Md. Kabir Ahmed ruled out any serious pressure as far as foreign-currency reserves is concern. The forex reserves stood at $34 billion now and the NOP (net open position) in banks rose to $800 million.

On the other hand, they expect that the country would see at least $2.0- billion-higher remittance inflow in this financial year (FY'26) from the figure of previous fiscal (FY'25). "Simultaneously, the IMF is expected to disburse two remaining installments involving $1.20 billion of its $5.5 billion worth of lending package for stabilising Bangladesh's macroeconomic situations," he said.

Dr Kabir also notes that the demand for US dollar is relatively low in the post-winter season. "So, there is no worry as far as forex reserves is concerned."

Deputy governors of BB Nurun Nahar, Dr Md. Habibur Rahman and Md. Zakir Hossain Chowdhury and BB spokesperson Arief Hossain Khan also spoke at the meeting.

Yields on treasury bills showed a mixed trend on Sunday as banks channelled excess liquidity into short-term government securities, reflecting subdued private sector credit demand and cautious market sentiment.

The shift in investment preference comes amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and slowing credit growth, prompting banks to favour safer, shorter-tenure instruments over longer-term exposure.

The cut-off yield, generally known as the interest rate, on 91-day T-bills fell to 9.78 per cent from 9.89 per cent earlier, while the yield on 182-day T-bills declined to 9.97 per cent from 10.00 per cent.

On the other hand, the yield on 364-day T-bills remained unchanged at 10.00 per cent, according to the auction results.

On the day, the government raised Tk 82.50 billion by issuing three types of T-bills to partially finance its budget deficit.

"Most banks preferred to invest their excess liquidity in risk-free government securities due to lower private sector credit demand amid ongoing geopolitical tensions," a senior official of the Bangladesh Bank (BB) told The Financial Express (FE).

Meanwhile, private sector credit growth fell to 6.03 per cent year-on-year in January 2026 from 6.10 per cent a month earlier, according to the central bank's latest figures.

"Banks deposited Tk 115 billion with the central bank under the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) on Sunday to manage their funds efficiently," the official said, explaining the liquidity situation in the market.

He also predicted that the current trend in yields on government securities may continue in the coming weeks.

Currently, four T-bills are traded through auctions to manage government borrowings from the banking system. These instruments have maturities of 14 days, 91 days, 182 days and 364 days.

In addition, five government bonds with tenures of two, five, 10, 15 and 20 years are traded in the market.

The government has ruled out any increase in tax rates, opting instead to expand the tax base and curb evasion to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio, said Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, economic and planning adviser to the prime minister.

The focus remains on boosting investment and improving compliance to enhance collection, he said at a press briefing yesterday at the National Board of Revenue (NBR) headquarters in Dhaka.

“We are not increasing tax rates. Our focus is on expanding the overall economic base so that revenue grows naturally,” Titumir said.

“The government will not increase the burden of domestic or foreign debt as in the past. Instead, we aim to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio without imposing additional pressure on taxpayers already strained by prolonged inflation.”

Three task forces are working day and night to raise revenue without increasing tax rates, he said, adding that the government is aiming to achiev an all-time-high revenue in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year.

“We have three months remaining in the current fiscal year. Within this period, we are optimistic that in the fourth quarter we will achieve higher revenue targets than at any previous time,” he said.

To that end, he informed that the government is planning to “introduce performance-based incentives for officials and reduce wastage” instead of continuing to grant “group-based tax privileges.”

He noted that rising poverty levels make it imperative to prioritise social protection spending.

Several new and expanded programmes have already been rolled out, including support schemes targeting women, religious service holders, and other vulnerable groups.

Against this backdrop, the government has outlined a three-pronged strategy: keeping the budget deficit under control, reducing reliance on domestic borrowing, and increasing revenue through economic expansion.

Policymakers view investment as the key driver of sustainable growth.

“Increased investment will lead to higher production, which will create jobs. Higher employment will, in turn, raise incomes and government revenue,” Titumir noted.

Stating that the government inherited a “destroyed economy,” he said revenue figures in the past were often manipulated. With the updated iBAS system, real-time data will now be available.

He also described the decision to split the NBR into two entities as logical, adding that discussions would be held to move forward on the matter.

Titumir further said that while fuel and gas prices were increased repeatedly before the interim government, the current administration -- mindful of inflation -- will avoid such measures.

Bangladesh's energy sector faces a "perfect storm" of global shocks and domestic inefficiencies, adding $760-830 million in monthly import costs in early 2026, according to Lion City Advisory Research.

Their report, Bangladesh Energy Sector: Crisis, Cost & Transition, warns that rising global fuel prices following the Iran-Israel conflict have pushed the country toward a "fiscal emergency." Brent crude surged to $105 per barrel in four weeks, while spot LNG prices jumped 125% to $22.51 per MMBtu.

Power sector inefficiencies, especially at the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), exacerbate the crisis. Installed capacity has grown fivefold to 28,919 MW since 2006, yet nearly 63% remains idle, generating annual capacity payments of Tk38,000 crore.

Blended generation costs now range Tk18-22 per kWh, more than doubling monthly subsidy needs to Tk7,500-9,500 crore.

The "Bapex Paradox" highlights domestic gas underperformance: only eight of 34 planned wells were drilled in FY2025, increasing reliance on costly LNG. Each additional 10 million cubic feet/day of domestic gas could save $82 million annually. Industrial energy efficiency could yield 50 bcf of "free LNG," replicating 13-27 new wells.

Renewable energy is more cost-effective: recent utility-scale solar bids stand at 8.27 US cents/kWh (Tk9.09), far below diesel (Tk32.53) or heavy fuel oil (Tk26). Policy uncertainty, including the IA framework cancellation, stalls private investment and 5,200MW of solar projects.

The report advocates the Bangladesh Energy Independence Program (BEIP): solar expansion, diesel replacement, and industrial efficiency to achieve 60-70% renewables by 2040 and potentially export $500 million-$1 billion annually. "At $105 oil per barrel, Bangladesh cannot afford not to transition," the report concludes.

Talks to reform the World Trade Organization and extend a moratorium to not impose customs duties on electronic transmissions such as digital downloads entered their final day on Sunday with no breakthrough yet in sight, diplomats said.

Trade ministers are working at a WTO meeting in Cameroon to close the gap between the United States and India over extending the e-commerce moratorium due to expire this month, three diplomats told Reuters.

Extending the moratorium is seen as a test for the WTO's relevance, following a year of tariff-fuelled trade turmoil and major disruptions due to the Middle East conflict.

India indicated it would accept an extension of two years, three diplomats said. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, however, has said Washington was not interested in a temporary extension to the ban, only a permanent one.

Business leaders say an extension is critical to guarantee predictability, fearing duties could otherwise be introduced.

There are suggestions the US could accept a "pathway to permanence" with a 10-year extension, a Western diplomat said. A second said a five- to 10-year extension was being explored, while a third indicated it was unlikely all WTO members would agree to go beyond two years.

A new draft document seen by Reuters on Saturday evening proposes support for developing country members, as well as a review clause.

Extending the moratorium permanently would give the US confidence to remain "fully engaged" in the trade body, the US Ambassador to the WTO, Joseph Barloon, told Reuters ahead of the talks.

"If the moratorium does not get extended, the US will use it as an excuse to beat the WTO on the head," a fourth senior diplomat said.

Reforms

The debate comes amid efforts to rework WTO rules to render subsidy use more transparent, make decision-taking easier and potentially rethink the so-called Most-Favoured-Nation principle that ensures members extend all trade benefits equally to one another.

The US and the EU argue China in particular has taken advantage of current rules to their detriment.

Meanwhile, decision-making under the consensus-based system has often been stymied by individual countries' objections.

A handful of countries are opposing a detailed work plan on reforms, while most members support it, two senior diplomats said.

"We are frustrated that we are spending a lot of time talking about process, when we want to get on with the real work, reforming the WTO," a Western diplomat said.

Including into WTO rules an agreement reached by a subset of members aimed at boosting investment in developing countries also remains blocked by India, which said plurilateral accords risk eroding the body's founding principles.

Embracing the slogan "Go Digital, Go Green", NCC Bank has launched a fully digital and eco-friendly savings account named "NCC NeoX" under its retail banking portfolio.

The bank said the initiative's main objective is to promote sustainable banking practices while ensuring modern, convenient digital banking services for customers.

Through the NCC NeoX account, customers can open accounts entirely online, complete e-KYC verification, and use a recyclable debit card. Funds deposited in the account will be invested in green initiatives, including renewable energy, waste management and sustainable agriculture.

The service was inaugurated at the bank's annual business conference by Chairman Md Nurun Newaz Salim.

The event was attended by Vice-Chairman Engineer Abdus Salam; Director and former chairman Amjadul Ferdous Chowdhury; Director and former vice-chairman Tanzina Ali; Director Syed Asif Nizamuddin; Director and Chairman of the Executive Committee Khairul Alam Chaklader; Directors Md Moinuddin, Mohammed Sazzad Un Newaz, Shamima Newaz, Morshedul Alam Chaklader and Nahid Banu; Independent Director Meer Sajed-Ul-Basher, FCA; Independent Director and Chairman of the Audit Committee Md Amirul Islam, FCS, FCA; Managing Director M Shamsul Arefin; Additional Managing Director M Khurshed Alam; Deputy Managing Director Md Habibur Rahman; and Head of the Retail Banking Unit S M Tanvir Hasan.

Md Nurun Newaz Salim said the bank remains committed to advancing environmentally friendly banking practices and contributing to global sustainable development goals.

He said, "The NCC NeoX Savings Account offers customers an important opportunity to engage in green financing. Through this, they can enjoy modern digital banking benefits while also contributing to environmental protection."

He added that the launch of the account reaffirmed NCC Bank's commitment to innovation, sustainable development, and responsible banking, and would help build a greener, more digitally empowered future.

Managing Director M Shamsul Arefin said, "The NCC NeoX account reflects the bank's dedication to digital transformation and sustainable banking."

He said the service would not only provide customers with a modern digital banking experience, but also make them partners in long-term economic and environmental well-being by supporting environmentally friendly initiatives.

Customers of the NCC NeoX account will enjoy digital banking facilities, competitive interest rates, free internet banking and SMS alerts, along with recognition as green banking partners.

Global oil prices surged and Asian stock markets fell sharply on Monday as the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran intensified, raising concerns over economic disruption and a broader regional escalation.

Brent crude climbed above $115 per barrel, up from around $72 on 27 February before the conflict deepened, amid a near-standstill of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies. The disruption follows Iranian threats against vessels passing through the waterway, fuelling volatility in global energy markets, says the BBC.

The impact has extended beyond the Middle East. In Australia, the states of Victoria and Tasmania introduced free public transport measures to help commuters cope with rising fuel costs.

Asian financial markets reacted strongly to the developments. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell more than 4.5% in early trading, while South Korea's Kospi dropped 3.5%, reflecting investor concerns over the economic fallout from the conflict. Analysts have also warned that the United Kingdom could face the most significant hit to economic growth among major economies as a direct consequence of the war.

The conflict has widened geographically, with Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launching strikes against Israel, underscoring the growing involvement of regional proxies.

Tensions have also escalated through direct threats and military positioning. Tehran has warned it could target the homes and universities of US and Israeli officials. Meanwhile, an additional 3,500 US troops have arrived in the Middle East, prompting Iran's parliament speaker to say their forces are "waiting for American soldiers" and that they are "waiting" as US forces deploy to the region.

Attacks on infrastructure have added to concerns about further disruption. Iranian strikes have hit major industrial sites, including aluminium plants in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, causing injuries. Separately, a US radar jet stationed at a base in Saudi Arabia was recently photographed with significant damage.

The conflict, now in its fourth week, has raised questions about Washington's strategy. "Trump is waging war based on instinct and it isn't working," Jeremy Bowen, the BBC's international editor, said in an analysis one month after the conflict began.

While US troop deployments to the region have increased, officials have not confirmed whether they will be used for ground combat, a move that would mark a significant escalation.

India's Vedanta will break up into five listed companies early next month under a years-long restructuring programme aimed at reducing debt, the Financial Times reported on Saturday, citing an interview with Chairman Anil Agarwal.

A tribunal approved the oil-to-metals conglomerate's plan to split into five listed entities in December.

After the demerger, the company will operate as Vedanta Limited, housing its base metals business. Vedanta Aluminium, Talwandi Sabo Power, Vedanta Steel and Iron, and Malco Energy will be the four other entities.

The combined market capitalisation of the five companies would be much higher than the conglomerate's current $27 billion, Agarwal told FT.

A private parent company controlled by Agarwal will retain about half of the shares in each of the new entities, he said.

The plan, first floated in 2023, was opposed by the government which feared a break-up would hinder its ability to recover money owed.

Chief Financial Officer Ajay Goel, in an interview to Reuters in January, said Vedanta aims to list the four planned demerged units on Indian exchanges by the middle of May.

Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry is facing mounting pressure as the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran disrupts global supply chains, threatening the availability of raw materials, pushing up freight costs and raising concerns over production stability.

The issue was highlighted at the inaugural session of the 17th Asia Pharma Expo 2026 and Asia Lab Expo 2026, held at the Bangladesh-China Friendship Exhibition Center in Dhaka’s Purbachal yesterday.

Health Minister Sardar Md Sakhawat Hossain, who inaugurated the three-day exposition as the chief guest, said the government is closely monitoring the evolving situation and stressed that ensuring access to quality medicines remains a top priority.

He also reiterated a zero-tolerance stance on corruption and irregularities in the sector.

Industry leaders said the Gulf region unrest has already started to affect the import of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and other essential inputs, many of which rely on complex shipping routes through the Middle East.

“The war has disrupted logistics, increased freight costs and caused shipment delays,” said Abdul Muktadir, president of the Bangladesh Association of Pharmaceutical Industries (BAPI).

“Rerouting of sea and air cargo is making imports more expensive and unpredictable.”

The disruption is particularly significant for Bangladesh, which remains heavily dependent on imported raw materials despite its strong domestic manufacturing base. Prolonged instability could drive up production costs and put pressure on medicine prices in the coming months, industry insiders said.

According to BAPI, the industry now meets nearly 98 percent of domestic demand and exports medicines to more than 120 countries, reflecting steady expansion over the past decade.

Bangladesh currently exports around $300 million worth of medicines annually and is emerging as a growing player in the global pharmaceutical market.

However, sustaining this momentum will depend on the sector’s ability to navigate external shocks and ensure an uninterrupted supply of inputs.

Muktadir stressed the urgency of accelerating the development of a domestic API industry to reduce reliance on imports.

“The current situation highlights our vulnerability. Policy support is essential to strengthen local capacity,” he said.

He warned that if the conflict persists, rising freight costs and supply uncertainties could erode profit margins and disrupt production cycles, with smaller manufacturers likely to face greater pressure.

Despite the challenges, Bangladesh has so far managed to keep medicine prices relatively lower than in neighbouring countries, supported by strong local production and regulatory oversight, he added.

Md Shameem Haidar, director general of the Directorate General of Drug Administration, said the industry continues to maintain quality and effectiveness, although global disruptions pose new risks.

Industry insiders estimate the market size has already exceeded $3.5 billion, which could surpass $6 billion by 2026, driven by annual growth of 15 to 18 percent.

However, they cautioned that geopolitical tensions could test the sector’s resilience in the near term.

Economists have urged the government to adopt a conservative approach in preparing the upcoming budget for the next fiscal year, taking into consideration the impact of the US-Israel war on Iran, implementing electoral pledges, and boosting investment.

The call came at the first pre-budget meeting with Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury and senior officials of other relevant government agencies at the state guest house Padma on Saturday night.

Among the economists, Salehuddin Ahmed, former finance adviser to the interim government, Debapriya Bhattacharya, distinguished fellow of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), Fahmida Khatun, executive director of CPD, Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (Sanem), and Zakir Ahmed Khan, former finance secretary, were present.

Speaking to The Daily Star, they noted that the first budget of the new government is crucial, as it will set the trajectory for how the economy will be managed over the next five years.

While Bangladesh’s budget preparation process typically begins in August-September, they said this budget should not be a routine exercise. Instead, it must reflect electoral commitments, prevailing global and domestic challenges, and long-term economic goals.

The economist pointed out that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could exert multifaceted pressure on Bangladesh’s economy.

Volatility in global oil markets may drive up import costs, while the risk of supply disruptions remains. This could increase the burden of fuel subsidies, posing a significant challenge to budget implementation.

At the same time, remittance inflows may face headwinds if employment opportunities shrink or incomes decline for migrant workers in the region.

Against this backdrop, several economists underscored that there is little room for overly optimistic assumptions in budget planning. Instead, expenditure frameworks must reflect realistic revenue mobilisation capacity, pressures on foreign exchange reserves and inflation risks.

According to meeting sources, the finance minister brought up long-standing concerns over lack of transparency, cost overrun, and project selection and implementation during the meeting.

He sought suggestions regarding these concerns from the economists.

Economists, in response, suggested including a low number of projects in the budget to ensure smooth implementation.

They also stressed the need to strengthen, streamline and ensure accountability in the formulation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP).

Without addressing these weaknesses, they cautioned, the effectiveness of public investment will remain limited.

No move should be taken to reduce the policy rate at this stage, most economists suggested, as inflation remains high and could intensify further with rising energy and import costs.

Sharing his experience as adviser of the previous interim government, Salehuddin Ahmed stressed that balancing political commitments with economic realities remains a key challenge. He suggested continuing the reform initiatives.

Referring to family cards and expanded safety net schemes, economists suggested streamlining the existing social safety net programmes alongside those electoral promises.

They also called for prioritising restoring confidence in the private sector, stressing the need for improving the investment climate, ensuring policy continuity and reducing administrative bottlenecks.

In the current uncertain environment, investors remain cautious, making it crucial for the government to provide clear and credible policy signals, they noted.

Tax reform featured prominently in the discussion. Structural weaknesses in the National Board of Revenue (NBR), limited tax collection capacity and persistent tax evasion were identified as major concerns.

Economists stressed that expanding the tax base and undertaking administrative reforms are essential for improving revenue mobilisation. They also called for modernisation, greater automation and enhanced accountability within the NBR.

Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, economic adviser to the prime minister, Md Mostaqur Rahman, governor of Bangladesh Bank, and Md Khairuzzaman Mozumder, secretary of the Finance Division, Monzur Ahmed, member of the General Economic Division of the Planning Commission, Nazma Mobarek, secretary of the Financial Institutions Division, and AK Enamul Haque, director general of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), were also present at the meeting.

Bangladesh can absorb the economic shocks stemming from the ongoing Middle East war for the next few months, as it holds adequate foreign exchange reserves to meet rising import bills despite higher energy prices, central bank governor Md Mostaqur Rahman said today (29 March).

In a view-exchange meeting with senior journalists, the newly appointed governor expressed cautious confidence in the country's external position.

He, however, maintained a firm stance on monetary policy, stating that cutting interest rates would be "unwise" at this stage due to persistently high inflation, prioritising price stability over short-term growth.

The governor also pledged to keep the financial sector free from political influence and to strengthen rural economic activities as part of broader efforts to stabilise the economy.

Deputy governors echoed similar views at the meeting. Deputy Governor Md Kabir Ahmed said Bangladesh's gross foreign exchange reserves currently stand at around $35 billion, sufficient to cover several months of import payments.

"Moreover, the Bangladesh Bank expects about $1.5 billion in loan disbursements from the International Monetary Fund by June and is working to secure another $2 billion credit line to ease pressure on the balance of payments," he said.

BB governor holds talks with IMF on advancing loan programme

The governor said the government is seeking cheaper fuel through bilateral deals or direct grants from leading oil exporters. Consequently, the prime minister's foreign affairs adviser is visiting various nations to negotiate these terms.

Furthermore, the Economic Relations Division (ERD) has finalised a $1 billion budget support package from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), said the governor.

However, senior executives at the central bank fear that a prolonged war could trigger significant economic risks and inflationary pressures.

Deputy Governor Habibur Rahman noted that with crude oil prices having now nearly doubled, import costs are expected to rise proportionately.

"In this regard, if the safety of Bangladeshi vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz can be guaranteed, it will be possible to reduce these additional costs," he said.

The governor, however, said the fuel imports Bangladesh procures under long-term G2G (government-to-government) agreements are sourced at the rates specified in those contracts. He added that the government's efforts are ongoing to ensure that these essential supplies continue uninterrupted.

Bangladesh Bank spokesperson Arief Hossain said a significant number of migrant workers in the Middle East risk losing their jobs and are returning home, raising concerns about a decline in remittances.

He also said, "If the IMF imposes conditions on the government to eliminate fuel subsidies, Bangladesh will have to comply. In such a scenario, inflation could surge significantly."

BB pauses dollar purchase to avoid exchange rate volatility as Iran war fallout looms

Bangladesh Bank officials noted that despite these stringent conditions, failing to secure the IMF loan would jeopardise the country's ability to obtain further credit from the World Bank and the ADB.

Deputy Governor Zakir Hossain Chowdhury said if international fuel oil prices continue to rise over a prolonged period, it will create additional subsidy pressure on the government.

Deputy Governor Kabir Ahmed said he anticipates that import demand would remain subdued this monsoon as well, which will play a vital role in maintaining the stability of both the reserves and the exchange rate.

Highlighting the priorities of the Bangladesh Bank, the governor said ensuring that the financial sector remains free from political influence is the top priority.

"The second priority is the recovery of stolen assets, for which meetings are being held every few days. Most banks have already signed non-disclosure agreements, and the remaining ones are expected to follow suit," he said.

The governor noted that unless GDP growth reaches 5% or higher, it will be difficult to attract foreign investment. To generate employment, the disbursement of loans from a Tk600 crore startup fund is set to commence this coming June, he said.

Furthermore, steps will be taken to stimulate demand in rural areas to keep the economy dynamic through increased domestic consumption, said the governor.

Lending banks have also been instructed to take the necessary measures to reopen factories that were closed either during or before the tenure of the interim government, he said.

The governor said, "We are working to decentralise Bangladesh's banking sector; specifically, banks will be instructed to increase loan disbursements towards agri-based industries and agri-technology.

"We are also considering the formation of a subsidy fund for the SME sector. Our reserves are currently in a safe zone, and we do not intend to see any significant depreciation of the exchange rate."

Stating that there is no scope to retreat from the establishment of the Sammilito Islami Bank, the governor affirmed that its operations will be expedited. "The chairman and managing director will be appointed soon, and I am adamant that this new bank remains entirely free from any political influence," he added.

Noting that the Bangladesh Bank held a meeting with the country's leading industrial conglomerates last Wednesday to understand their challenges, the governor stated that any issues pertaining to the central bank would be resolved.

The governor announced that a single, standardised QR code for all financial transactions will be established across the country by 30 June. "The use of this Bangla QR will become mandatory from 1 July."

He added, "This initiative aims to accelerate cashless transactions, which in turn will play a vital role in boosting revenue collection."

Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir has urged the continuation of special support measures for a defined period after countries graduate from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category to help maintain economic stability.

Speaking on the third day of the ongoing WTO Ministerial Conference, the minister participated in various thematic sessions and emphasised Bangladesh's position on key global trade issues, including WTO reforms.

He also called for the adoption of an LDC graduation-related package at MC14 to support countries like Bangladesh in the post-graduation phase.

Muktadir stressed the importance of ensuring an effective, predictable, and rules-based dispute settlement system, called for the prompt restoration of a fully functional two-tier dispute settlement mechanism, including the revival of the Appellate Body, noting that a strong and impartial system is essential to safeguard the interests of developing and LDC countries.

On fisheries subsidies, the minister highlighted that Bangladesh's contribution to harmful subsidies is close to zero, while major fishing nations account for the bulk, urged stricter discipline on harmful subsidies alongside ensuring Special and Differential Treatment (S&DT) for developing and LDC countries.

He also called for full exemption for small-scale and marginal fishers to ensure fairness and sustainability.

At the conference, Bangladesh announced its accession as the 129th member to the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement, marking its first participation in a plurilateral agreement under the WTO framework.

The minister expressed hope that this move would improve Bangladesh's investment climate and send a positive signal to foreign investors.

The step was welcomed by several partners, including the European Union, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, and Hong Kong.

On agriculture, Muktadir underscored the sector's critical role in ensuring food security, livelihoods, and poverty reduction, called for the swift resolution of long-standing issues such as public stockholding, special safeguard mechanisms, and trade-distorting subsidies by developed countries. He reiterated that S&DT must remain central to agricultural negotiations.

Reaffirming Bangladesh's strong support for the LDC package, the minister emphasized the importance of a smooth and sustainable transition, said special benefits should continue for a specified period after graduation to help maintain economic stability and urged adoption of the package at MC14.

Bangladesh also supported extending the moratorium on non-violation and situation complaints (NVSCs) under the TRIPS Agreement until the next ministerial conference. The minister noted that such complaints could undermine policy space for developing countries, particularly in areas like public health and education, and called for a permanent solution.

He further said WTO reform efforts must be grounded in its core principles of transparency, inclusiveness, and fairness, adding that adherence to these values would help preserve trust and credibility in the multilateral trading system.

The minister reaffirmed Bangladesh's commitment to a fair, inclusive, and development-oriented multilateral trading system, expressing hope that MC14 outcomes would guide future reforms while ensuring the interests of developing and LDC countries are protected.