India's real GDP growth for the next fiscal (2026-27) could erode by around one percentage point, while retail inflation could rise by about 1.5 percentage points from their baseline estimates if the West Asia conflict persists through the next fiscal, consultancy firm Ernst & Young report said.

The EY Economy Watch report said several sectors, including employment-intensive sectors like textiles, paints, chemicals, fertilisers and cement could be directly impacted.

Any reduction in employment or incomes in these sectors may further dampen aggregate demand. As a result, both supply and demand conditions may be adversely affected by global oil market disturbances, the report added.

It said the Indian economy, which imports nearly 90% of its crude oil requirements, is also highly dependent on imports of natural gas and fertilisers and is particularly vulnerable to such external shocks, with the adverse effects likely to cascade across multiple sectors through strong forward and backward linkages with crude oil and energy.

EY, in its February report, projected India's GDP could be between 6.8% and 7.2% in the 2026-27 fiscal.

The Indian government has already set up a Rs1 lakh crore economic stabilisation fund to act as a financial cushion against global headwinds.

China's factory activity grew at the fastest pace in a year in March, underpinned by improved demand, an official survey showed on Tuesday, a welcome relief for an economy grappling with global supply chain strains and energy market volatility.

The stronger reading eases pressure on policymakers, though its durability is in doubt as surging energy prices driven by the Middle East war, and heightened growth risks, pose fresh headwinds for manufacturers reliant on exports and operating on thin margins.

"The outlook for Q2 is unclear at this stage, given the negative impact from high energy prices," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

"The market is increasingly worried about the risk of global growth slowdown and supply chain disruption."

The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.4 from 49.0 in February, above the 50-threshold and hitting the highest point in 12 months, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. It beat analysts' forecast for a 50.1 reading in a Reuters poll.

The manufacturing PMI was in contraction for most of 2025 and the first two months of 2026.

China's goods exports continued to power growth in January and February after last year's record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, buoyed by firm global demand for electronics, particularly semiconductors. The commerce ministry said last week the momentum looked set to hold, even as geopolitical strains linger.

Yet the war in the Middle East is raising concerns for policymakers.

Pressure was already evident in the latest survey. The sub-index for purchase prices of main raw materials jumped to 63.9 in March from 54.8 in February, driven by rising bulk commodity prices and faster procurement by companies, the NBS said.

Output prices also rose, albeit at a more modest pace, suggesting limited pricing power.

War fans business uncertainty amid weak domestic demand

The March PMI data may have been skewed by the Lunar New Year holiday, despite seasonal adjustments to the NBS survey that economists say remain imperfect. The festival fell in February, when factories often shut for longer than the official break, which stretched to a record nine days this year.

Businesses accelerated their resumption of work and production after the holiday and market activity improved, NBS statistician Huo Lihui said in a statement, adding that PMI readings improved across companies of different sizes.

The sub-indexes for output and new orders both rose above 51 from below 50 the previous month, while that for new export orders improved to 49.1 from 45 in February.

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, an industry association, said earlier this month that the war could affect car exports. The Middle East accounted for around a fifth of China's vehicle exports last year.

Hikes in input costs could pressure wages and job security, which would in turn weigh on already chronically weak domestic demand.

China's economic activity outperformed expectations in the first two months in part due to government support.

The non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, also increased to 50.1 from 49.5 in February, the NBS survey showed.

Tuesday's PMI survey suggests China's first-quarter GDP growth would likely exceed 4.5%, the floor for Beijing's 4.5%-5.0% target for this year, ANZ analysts said.

ANZ no longer expects rate cuts in 2026 or 2027 given growth stayed within the official goal, saying instead policymakers would likely prioritise structural measures to cushion the impact of the oil shock.

China's leaders have repeatedly vowed to shift the growth engine toward domestic consumption to reduce reliance on external demand. But rebalancing reforms will take time, and as the fallout from the war deepens, businesses are likely to feel the pain more sharply in the near term.

"When the global situation is uncertain, reliance on China's industrial chain increases, similar to the situation at the beginning of the pandemic," said Dan Wang, director for China at Eurasia Group.

"However, exports and PMI may face risks in the second half of the year, as the Iranian issue could lead to a recession in major economies, especially the EU, which is China's most important trading destination."

Bangladesh could lose more than $17.5 billion in exports following its graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category, the steepest projected loss among all graduating nations globally, according to a new United Nations report.

The figure represents nearly a third of the country’s $54.8 billion in total exports recorded in 2023, according to the Trade Preferences Outlook 2025, published by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

“The trade effects of losing LDC preferences could be substantial in certain cases,” it said, projecting that Bangladesh can face a 32.24 percent decline in its total exports after it transitions to a developing country.

The warning comes just over six months before Bangladesh’s scheduled graduation on November 24, 2026. Nepal and Lao PDR are also scheduled to graduate this year, with the third and final review process by the UN currently underway ahead of the final transition.

The new BNP-led government, which took office in February, has sought a three-year deferral, pushing the graduation date to November 2029, citing disruptions in preparedness caused by prolonged global crises and domestic economic pressures.

The request came amid repeated calls from exporters who say the country is not yet prepared to compete without preferential trade access.

GARMENTS, FOOTWEAR TO BEAR THE BRUNT

The UNCTAD report, released in late February, found that around 97 percent of the projected export losses would stem from the apparel and footwear sectors – the twin pillars of Bangladesh’s export economy, which together account for nearly 90 percent of the country’s goods exports.

The European Union (EU) looms largest in the risk picture. Some 77 percent of the total projected loss is linked to preference erosion in the EU market, which currently grants duty-free access to Bangladeshi apparel and footwear under its Everything but Arms initiative for LDCs.

The EU is Bangladesh’s biggest export destination, accounting for nearly 47 percent of total exports in 2024. The United States follows at 16.15 percent of total exports, with other developed markets at 15 percent. Canada and Japan together account for around 5.82 percent.

Post-graduation, Canada is projected to contribute 8.6 percent of the total export decline, while the United Kingdom would account for 6.9 percent.

The loss of preferential market access conditions can result in a substantial decrease in exports of preference-receiving countries as evident in projection for fellow graduating nations.

According to the UNCTAD report, Lao PDR is projected to see a 12.8 percent decline in exports, and Nepal a 3.82 percent drop.

FTAs AND TRANSITION DEALS

The report noted that several graduating LDCs have moved to negotiate free trade agreements (FTAs) with key partners to lock in tariff preferences beyond their LDC status.

For instance, Bangladesh has initiated FTA talks with both Japan and the EU, among others.

However, the report cautioned that reciprocal trade agreements come with their own costs, requiring countries to open their own markets, potentially raising competition, triggering adjustment pressures and reducing customs revenues.

Countries with limited market power, it added, often face challenges in effectively negotiating and achieving their economic interests in trade negotiations with partners that enjoy significantly greater markets

UNCTAD noted that with 14 LDCs nearing graduation, smooth transitional arrangements are gaining traction.

The report noted that the EU, the United Kingdom and Canada have introduced mechanisms allowing graduating LDCs continued access to preferential treatment for three years after graduation, offering some cushion against abrupt trade shocks.

The EU has also moved to reform its GSP+ scheme to improve accessibility for vulnerable economies, including future LDC graduates. Some of the recent reforms aim to better accommodate populous graduating LDCs such as Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, the UK and Canada have introduced analogous preference programmes of their own, titled “Enhanced Preferences” and General Preferential Tariff Plus (GPTP), respectively.

‘STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES EXPOSED’

Economists say the findings should serve as a wake-up call.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), said the UNCTAD projections highlight how deeply the country’s trade competitiveness depends on preferential access.

“While this estimate does, on the surface, look very high, with more than 90 percent of exports benefiting from such preferences, the transition to a post-LDC regime will expose structural weaknesses, particularly our heavy reliance on a narrow set of products and markets,” he said.

Rahman said the message is clear: graduation cannot be treated as a symbolic achievement alone.

“It must be accompanied by urgent and credible reforms: securing trade agreements, especially with the EU, improving logistics and energy reliability, and enabling firms to move up the value chain. Without this, preference erosion could translate into real economic stress.

“With the right reforms, however, graduation can become a turning point towards a more resilient and competitive export economy,” he added.

Bangladesh's stock market has lost around Tk29,531 crore in value amid a bearish trend since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, as persistent sell-offs driven by fears of a prolonged conflict weigh heavily on investor sentiment, according to data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

Equities – shares of listed companies – have borne the brunt of the downturn since the war began on 28 February, with their value falling by Tk27,176 crore, while the value of debt securities, including treasury bonds and corporate bonds, dropped by Tk2,468 crore, according to the DSE data.

Market capitalisation, which reflects the total value of all listed companies' outstanding shares, stood at Tk6.88 lakh crore as of today (31 March), comprising Tk3.34 lakh crore in equities and Tk3.52 lakh crore in debt securities.

Before the conflict, on 26 February, total market capitalisation was Tk7.18 lakh crore, with Tk3.61 lakh crore in equities and Tk3.54 lakh crore in debt instruments.

The benchmark DSEX index dropped by a net 421 points over the past month, as most trading sessions closed in the red amid sustained selling pressure. Out of 17 trading days since the conflict began, the market declined on 10 days and rose on only seven.

During these sessions, the DSEX fell by a cumulative 919 points, recovered 498 points, and ended at 5,178 points – reflecting an overall net loss of 421 points.

Fundamentally strong stocks, including BRAC Bank, Islami Bank, BAT Bangladesh, Square Pharmaceuticals, Walton, Pubali Bank, City Bank, Prime Bank, and Eastern Bank, were among the biggest contributors to the index's decline, according to market data.

Market insiders and investors said the bourse had already been sluggish ahead of the election due to concerns over political instability, with expectations of a recovery after the new government took office.

However, the outbreak of the Iran war within days of the new administration assuming power triggered fresh volatility, which continues to persist.

According to market insiders, the war has already started to impact the country's economy, particularly through disruptions to fuel imports, raising concerns over supply. There are also fears of potential interruptions in raw material imports.

If fuel supply and raw material flows do not stabilise, the business performance of listed companies could be adversely affected, prompting investors in the capital market to adopt a cautious stance.

Md Akramul Alam, head of research at Royal Capital, said the oil shock triggered by the Iran-US war is influencing the pace of the country's economic recovery, which is ultimately expected to be reflected in the sluggish stock market.

"The inflationary pressures will erode the production and profitability of publicly traded companies, which signals lower valuations as a result. But some investors may love to win a bet on stocks at a huge discount," he said.

"The market is expected to rebound after this storm ends," he added.

Muhammad Nazrul Islam, MD & CEO of Sandhani Life Finance, told TBS, "Although there were expectations that the market would see a positive impact after the new government took office, the Iran war has created another layer of uncertainty in the market.

"The effects of the war have already started to impact the country's economy, particularly creating concerns over fuel supply. Investors are now closely watching how the Iran war situation unfolds."

Volatility and falling turnover

Sheltech Brokerage, in its March market commentary, said the Middle East conflict triggered broad-based selling.

"DSEX declined by 7.53%, or 421.95 points, on a month-to-month basis, while average daily turnover fell by 24.12% to Tk600 crore, reflecting subdued market participation amid investors' heightened risk aversion due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which raised concerns over potential energy supply disruptions and their broader macroeconomic implications," it said.

"The market experienced extreme volatility during the period, with an initial phase of broad-based panic selling leading to a cumulative decline of over 591.27 points, including a single-day steepest drop of 208.98 points since 2020, following the onset of the Middle East conflict.

"While a brief recovery supported by bargain hunting was witnessed in the middle of the month, the absence of any tangible de-escalation sign limited follow-through buying and triggered renewed selling pressure into the latter part of the period," it added.

Looking ahead, the brokerage firm said market direction is likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly their impact on energy prices and domestic macroeconomic stability.

Regional markets also slide

Peer markets across the region also recorded sharp declines in March following the start of the Iran war.

Indonesia's IDX Composite index posted the steepest fall at 14.41%, followed by India's Sensex at 11.49%, Pakistan's KSE-100 at 11.38%, Sri Lanka's ASPI at 11.24%, Vietnam's VN-Index at 10.95%, Thailand's SET index at 5.24%, and Malaysia's market at 1.53%, according to an analysis by Sheltech Brokerage.

Despite the losses, the firm noted that Bangladesh's DSEX showed relative resilience, with a comparatively smaller decline of 7.53% amid the geopolitical shock.

Dove soap maker Unilever has implemented a global hiring freeze "at all levels" that will last at least three months, citing the effects of the widening conflict in the Middle East, according to a memo seen by Reuters.

In the memo, sent to staff late last week and previously unreported, Unilever said the freeze would take effect immediately and was made with an eye on the "significant challenges" from the month-old Iran war.

Firms globally from airlines to retail are scrambling to buttress themselves from the effects of the Iran war, which has snarled global trade flows and resulted in the worst-ever disruption of oil-and-gas supplies in history. The rapid surge in energy costs is already surfacing in other markets, slowing production in industries like chemicals and plastics.

"Macro economic and geopolitical realities, especially the Middle East conflict... bring some significant challenges for the coming few months," Fabian Garcia, head of Unilever's personal care business, wrote in the memo sent to staff.

"With this in mind, the Unilever Leadership Executive team has agreed a global recruitment freeze at all levels. This will be effective immediately and last for a minimum of three months."

The London-based consumer products giant owns some of the world's most prominent brands. While it produces most of its goods where it sells them, it buys chemicals, food, packaging and other raw materials that are energy-intensive to create.

Unilever, in a statement, said that due to the "uncertain external environment, we have decided to put in place a temporary pause on our recruitment," adding that it will "always adjust our plans as necessary."

Unilever was already cost-cutting

The freeze comes on top of an existing cost-cutting programme Unilever has had in place since 2024, meant to save around 800 million euros ($916.72 million) in costs over the next three years. The changes Unilever proposed then were expected to affect around 7,500 jobs globally, mostly office-based.

The firm's current headcount of 96,000 is down from the roughly 149,000 people it employed in 2020.

The company has struggled to grow sales volumes across its businesses in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. It is now in talks to sell its foods business to smaller rival McCormick & Company, it said on 20 March.

Under the proposed combination, which would mark a major shake-up under CEO Fernando Fernandez, the British group's shareholders would likely keep a majority stake in the new entity, Reuters reported late last week.

Shares of Unilever rose 1.1% in London trading Monday.

Green Delta Insurance PLC has declared a 27% cash dividend for shareholders for the year ended 31 December, 2025.

The announcement was made at the company's 40th annual general meeting, held on 31 March, 2026 through an online conferencing and broadcasting platform.

The meeting was attended by sponsors, directors and shareholders. Company Secretary Md Oliullah Khan, FCS, conducted the AGM with the permission of Chairperson Shamsun Nahar Begum Chowdhury.

The chairperson thanked the shareholders for their continued support and cooperation in the company's growth. She also congratulated members of the Green Delta family for their sincere efforts to ensure uninterrupted customer service and smooth business operations during the economic challenges faced by businesses.

Farzanah Chowdhury, managing director and CEO of Green Delta Insurance, thanked shareholders for their support in helping the company maintain its leading position in the industry. She also expressed gratitude to the team for pursuing excellence amid the difficult economic conditions of 2025.

She expressed optimism about the company's future, citing its diverse service portfolio, digital solutions, automated customer service, agriculture insurance and microinsurance. She also pledged to continue innovation and deliver best-in-class service to ensure financial stability and sustainable growth.

Founding Managing Director Nasir A Choudhury also addressed the shareholders and thanked them for their continued support.

A large number of shareholders joined the online AGM and appreciated the board of directors and management of Green Delta Insurance PLC for the company's performance, corporate governance, dividend declaration and informative annual report for 2025.

Gold rose on Tuesday but stayed on track ‌for its biggest monthly drop in more than 17 years as investors flocked to the dollar as the favoured safe haven amid the Middle East war that has raised inflation fears and bets for hawkish monetary policy response.

Spot gold ​climbed 0.9 percent to $4,550.68 per ounce by 0727 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery gained ​0.5 percent to $4,580.70.

Bullion has declined more than 13 percent this month, putting it on track for its steepest decline since October 2008. Prices are, however, up about 5 percent for the quarter, having ​scaled a record high of $5,594.82 on January 29. Prices are down 18.70 percent from record highs.

“Traders are still seeing ​gold through the lens of a value investment at these levels, given where the precious metal was trading just a few months ago. So, it’s a combination of falling oil, a dip in the dollar and attractive buying levels, ​which has propelled gold higher today,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst, KCM Trade.

Gold is typically seen ​as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, but the war-driven surge in energy costs is also raising expectations ‌for higher interest rates and boosting the dollar’s appeal as the preferred safe haven.

The dollar was headed for its biggest monthly gain since July, making it as the strongest safe asset, supported by the US status as an energy exporter and investors’ flight to cash over the past month of conflict.

Traders have almost ​completely priced out any chance ​of a US rate ⁠cut this year from about two cuts expected before the war.

“If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could remain volatile with potential for ​further upside on supply constraints. So, this high oil story, which has plagued ​gold prices ⁠since the conflict began, hasn’t gone away yet,” Waterer said.

Goldman Sachs, however, said it continues to expect gold prices will reach $5,400 per troy ounce by end‑2026 on central bank diversification and Federal Reserve easing.

India’s rupee fell to a record low of more than 95 to the dollar on Monday, before recovering, despite recent efforts by the central bank to stem its fall.

The rupee was among Asia’s worst forex performers in 2025, and its underperformance has continued well into this year, hitting new lows on a regular basis.

Experts say the Middle East war has piled more pressure on the currency, as overseas investors offload Indian shares, and as concerns grow over India’s rising energy import bill and the possibility of a wider current account deficit.

On Monday afternoon, the rupee hit 95.21, down 0.3 percent from Friday’s close, before recovering later to 94.83.

The world’s most populous nation is one of the “most vulnerable economies within Asia to an energy price shock”, analysts at Nomura wrote in a note on Monday.

This has partly caused overseas investors to sell around $12 billion in Indian equities in March so far.

“Foreign outflows from Indian equities could intensify, if the Middle East conflict tightens global financial conditions significantly,” Nomura analysts added.

More significantly, the rupee’s drop comes despite recent interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to stem the fall, including via aggressive dollar sales.

On Friday, the RBI clamped down on speculation in the foreign exchange market by limiting to $100 million the daily currency positions that lenders can have.

“By capping onshore exposure, the RBI forces unwind ... long-dollar positions, draining speculative fuel from the market,” Raj Gaikar of SAMCO Securities told AFP.

Gaikar, however, added that while the measure worked “in intent”, it is not a “trend reversal”.

“Crude above $100 and persistent FII (foreign institutional investor) outflows remain structural headwinds that no position cap can fully neutralise.”

Bangladesh's apparel exports to the European market could face a carbon tax of about 5% if emissions are not reduced, a new study warns.

The European Union (EU), Bangladesh's largest export market, has introduced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to curb emissions across its supply chains. Apparel products could be brought under this mechanism by 2030.

If current emission levels in Bangladesh's garment sector persist, an additional 4.8% carbon tax may be imposed on apparel exports after 2030, according to the study.

The findings come from joint research by Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), and Mohammad Imraj Kabir. The report was published on the CPD website on 29 March.

This additional tax may come at a time when Bangladesh is set to lose its duty-free trade benefits in the EU market due to graduation from least developed country (LDC) status.

The study notes that the loss of duty-free access could result in an average tariff of about 12%, and with the added carbon tax of 4.8%, the total tariff burden could rise to nearly 17%.

"The carbon tax on Bangladesh's exports of apparel to the EU, using the EU-CBAM methodology, is estimated to be 4.8%," the report titled "EU Carbon Tax: Possible Implications for Bangladesh's Apparel Export" states.

"If the average EU-MFN import duty on apparel is taken to be 12.1%, the total import tariff comes to about 16.9% (12.1%+4.8%)," it adds.

This scenario could emerge after Bangladesh graduates from the LDC group in November 2026. Even if the EU extends duty-free access until 2029, the apparel sector could still face a 4.8% CBAM tax during 2026–2029 if apparel is included in the mechanism.

Professor Mustafizur Rahman told TBS, "We estimated this based on the level of carbon emissions in Bangladesh's apparel sector."

However, industry leaders are not overly concerned. They say many factories have already begun adopting environmentally friendly production processes, including renewable energy, to reduce emissions, and others are expected to follow.

Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), told TBS, "We have already started preparing to use 30% renewable energy in line with EU requirements. Many of our factories have begun implementing green practices, including renewable energy."

He added that smaller and medium-sized factories are also being supported to meet these requirements in collaboration with the government.

Bangladesh has one of the highest numbers of green-certified factories by the US Green Building Council (USGBC), with nearly 300 such facilities.

However, Mustafizur Rahman noted that existing green factories do not fully meet all EU requirements, though this still represents significant progress.

The EU introduced CBAM in July 2021 to encourage exporters to reduce emissions and penalise those who do not. Initially, it applies to products such as cement, fertiliser and steel from January 2026. However, the EU plans to eventually include all imported goods by 2030.

Given that apparel accounts for more than four-fifths of Bangladesh's exports – and the EU takes more than half of those exports – this development is highly significant for the country.

Need to prioritise clean energy

The report stresses that Bangladesh must increase the use of clean energy in production to avoid potential carbon taxes in the EU market. It recommends a range of policy measures, including incentives for adopting green technologies.

Suggested steps include fiscal incentives such as reduced import duties on energy-efficient technologies, financial support like subsidised loans for setting up ETPs, and institutional measures such as enforcing emission-reduction policies and building technical capacity.

Other recommendations include developing a monitoring mechanism for CBAM, engaging with the World Trade Organization (WTO), introducing a domestic carbon pricing system, strengthening renewable energy policies, and ensuring that CBAM is not used as a protectionist trade tool.

The government is considering a strategic diesel allocation plan for the ready-made garment sector based on recommendations from trade bodies to ensure factory generators remain operational during periods of load-shedding.

The move comes amid a worsening global energy crisis triggered by the Iran war, which has driven up fuel and LNG prices and disrupted supply chains. Iran's move to halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has further tightened global supply.

According to officials and industry sources, the proposed mechanism will allow factories to receive diesel strictly in line with certified daily requirements provided by the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA).

Both organisations have already begun collecting data from member factories on generator capacity and fuel demand. In a letter issued on Sunday, the BGMEA asked its members to submit details of generator usage, capacity and diesel requirements by 2 April, while the BKMEA issued a similar request.

BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan said factories rely on standby generators during power outages, which require a steady diesel supply. He noted that discussions with the government are under way to ensure equitable fuel distribution during the ongoing global crisis.

He added that, under an initial plan, diesel allocation would be based on the amount required to run generators for up to four hours a day, as extended load-shedding beyond that duration is not anticipated.

BKMEA President Mohammad Hatem said the association is gathering daily fuel demand data from its members and will issue certifications accordingly. He added that a meeting with the power and energy minister was scheduled for late yesterday to finalise the arrangement.

BKMEA Executive President Fazlee Shamim Ehsan said discussions have already taken place with the energy minister and local administrators in Narayanganj and Gazipur, with positive responses.

He expressed hope that fuel supply based on organisational recommendations would begin soon, depending on the evolving situation.

Under the proposed system, factories will be allowed to collect diesel once daily from nearby filling stations, which will supply fuel upon verification of BGMEA or BKMEA certification, sources said.

Data from the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation indicate that the country consumes around 13,000 to 14,000 tonnes of diesel per day, with about 5% used by industrial factories. The bulk of diesel is consumed in transport, irrigation and power generation.

Bangladesh, which is heavily dependent on fuel imports from Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has not received crude oil shipments since the war started.

Imports of refined fuel and LNG – primarily sourced from countries including Qatar and Oman – have also been affected, with LNG prices nearly doubling.

Diesel remains critical for transport, agriculture, power generation and industrial operations, while LNG is widely used in electricity production and factory boilers. The ongoing global shortage has already begun to affect domestic supply, with consumers facing difficulties in obtaining fuel in line with demand, industry insiders said.

A rapid expansion of solar energy is essential to protect Bangladesh from escalating global fuel price shocks triggered by the Iran war, according to a new study.

The report by Lion City Advisory highlights how surging global energy prices have intensified pressure on Bangladesh's already strained power sector, exposing its heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels.

Within just four weeks, Brent crude prices jumped from $67 to over $100 per barrel, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices surged from $10 to $22.51 per MMBtu, the report noted.

As a result, Bangladesh's monthly import bill for oil, LNG and coal has increased by an estimated $760-830 million, with LNG alone adding $363-400 million in additional monthly costs.

Analysts warn that if elevated prices persist for more than six months, the country could face significant fiscal strain due to rising subsidy requirements.

Despite installed power capacity jumping from 5,245MW in 2005-06 to 28,919MW in 2026, around 63% of capacity remains idle. Yet, the government continues to pay around Tk38,000 crore annually in capacity payments – largely to oil-based plants – compounding financial stress.

With almost 87% of electricity still generated from fossil fuels, Bangladesh remains highly exposed to global commodity volatility.

Solar seen as fastest shield

The study identifies solar energy as the quickest and most scalable way to reduce this exposure, recommending nationwide adoption of Solar Home Systems (SHS), particularly in urban areas.

In Dhaka alone, nearly 3.5 million households rely on diesel generators, costing an estimated $530 million annually. Mandatory SHS adoption could significantly cut these expenses while reducing fuel imports and easing pressure on the national grid.

Rooftop solar also presents a major opportunity. Although the current installed capacity stands at around 245MW, the report suggests this could expand rapidly if policy barriers are removed.

"Solar is not just a climate solution – it is now a fiscal necessity," the report states, emphasising that solar power eliminates dependence on imported fuels and shields the economy from global price shocks.

Unlocking investment through policy reform

A key bottleneck remains the suspension of Implementation Agreements (IAs) for new solar independent power producers (IPPs), which has stalled more than 5,200 MW of planned projects.

Without IA-backed guarantees, developers cannot secure financing from global lenders such as the International Finance Corporation, the Asian Development Bank, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency.

The report urges immediate reinstatement of IAs for projects above 50MW, with fiscal safeguards. Unlike conventional IPPs, solar projects operate on an energy-payment model – meaning the government pays only for electricity actually generated, avoiding the costly capacity payments that currently burden the system.

Tariffs offered by solar developers – around $0.08/kWh – are described as globally competitive and cheaper than oil-based generation.

Cutting costs at source

Beyond solar expansion, the report outlines immediate steps to reduce system costs.

One major recommendation is the removal of import duties on solar equipment, currently ranging from 14-28%, which could lower project costs by up to 20%.

It also calls for simplifying net metering approvals – currently taking up to 90 days – through a 30-day automatic approval mechanism, alongside penalties for utility delays.

At the same time, renegotiating and gradually retiring expensive HFO and diesel-based plants could save around Tk18,000 crore annually, with funds redirected toward renewable energy investments.

Efficiency gains and gas supply concerns

Industrial energy efficiency is identified as another immediate opportunity. Waste heat recovery systems in factories could save around 50 billion cubic feet of gas annually – equivalent to $1.13 billion in LNG imports at current prices.

Describing this as "effectively free LNG," the report says such measures can provide short-term relief while renewable capacity is expanded.

The study also notes a decline in domestic gas production – from around 2,700 MMcfd in 2018 to 1,700 MMcfd in 2026 – urging an emergency drilling programme by Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Limited to accelerate the completion of 34 planned wells.

However, it cautions that gas alone cannot resolve the crisis and recommends prioritising domestic gas for high-value sectors such as fertiliser, while shifting power generation towards solar energy.

Long-term resilience

The report proposes allocating 50,000 acres of marginal land for solar parks and expanding solar irrigation to replace almost 1.5 million diesel pumps that currently consume around $1.5 billion annually.

It also calls for reforms in green financing, including simplifying Bangladesh Bank's approval process to enable faster, low-cost funding for renewable projects.

Underlying all recommendations is a clear message: Bangladesh must move away from a fuel-import-driven power system toward one based on domestic, renewable energy.

"The current crisis is a warning," the report concludes. "Solar energy, backed by policy reform and investment certainty, offers Bangladesh the most viable path to reduce price exposure, stabilise subsidies, and secure long-term energy independence."

Bangladesh secured higher foreign loan commitments in the first eight months of the current fiscal year, yet actual disbursement fell by 26 percent compared with the same period last year, raising concerns about the country’s ability to use external funds effectively.

Between the July-February period, foreign loan disbursement dropped to $3.05 billion, down from $4.13 billion a year earlier, according to data released by the Economic Relations Division (ERD) yesterday.

The decline was driven largely by slower project aid, the primary channel for financing infrastructure and development projects.

Disbursement under project assistance fell to just above $3 billion in the first eight months of this fiscal year, compared with over $4.1 billion during the same period last year.

This slowdown comes despite nearly $40 billion in financing commitments from foreign lenders.

Analysts say the widening gap between pledged funds and actual disbursement reflects Bangladesh’s limited capacity to use external resources on time.

Foreign aid is crucial for roads, power plants, and social sector projects, but delays can reduce project benefits and increase costs.

The trend is particularly concerning as Bangladesh’s external debt servicing rises. During the July-February period, the country paid $2.9 billion in principal and interest, up from $2.63 billion a year earlier.

Deen Islam, professor of economics at Dhaka University, said the figures indicate a gradual shift from development financing to debt rollover.

“When a large portion of new external borrowing is used to service existing debt rather than finance productive investment, the net inflow of resources into the economy declines,” he said.

“Infrastructure and development spending may slow, while rising debt servicing puts additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate,” Islam said.

He added that the situation could also fuel imported inflation. While not yet a crisis, he described it as a “warning sign”.

“If this trend persists, policymakers will face difficult trade-offs between taking on more debt and reallocating domestic resources away from development spending,” he said.

Meanwhile, Monzur Hossain, member (secretary) of the General Economics Division (GED) under the Planning Commission, said, “Loan disbursement is directly tied to project progress. When implementation slows, disbursement inevitably falls.”

He pointed to structural bottlenecks, particularly in investment projects.

“Many projects involve complex conditions, and meeting those requirements takes time. Land acquisition remains a major challenge in many cases,” Hossain said.

He also noted weaknesses in the execution of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) as a key factor. “Since most of these loans are linked to ADP projects, delays in overall project execution translate into slower disbursement,” he added.

During the period of the interim government, many projects were almost stagnant. However, Hossain expressed optimism about improvement in the coming months.

“Now, with a political government in place, monitoring has increased, projects are being prioritised, and delays are being scrutinised more closely,” he said.

“I expect the situation to improve soon, particularly in the final months of the fiscal year as measures taken by the Planning Commission begin to take effect,” he added.

German companies are so deeply tied to both the United States and China that they cannot decouple from either without severe economic costs, according to a study by the University of Sussex and King's College London seen by Reuters on Monday.

The researchers mapped sales, production and supply-chain exposures of firms listed on Germany's DAX and MDAX indices, finding that dependence on the world's two biggest economies runs across sectors and individual companies.

Automakers and machinery groups are most reliant on China as a market, while chemical and pharmaceutical firms depend more heavily on the US for research, development and production, the study said. Digital, telecoms and semiconductor companies, meanwhile, are highly exposed to suppliers in both countries.

"Leading industrial players like Siemens and BMW were built in a fundamentally globalised system and can't decouple from either China or the US without devastating losses," University of Sussex political economist Steven Rolf, a co-author, said.

The study said BMW generates more revenue from China than from the United States, while also depending on Chinese battery supplier CATL for more than 1.4 billion euros ($1.5 billion) in inputs.

Siemens gets 24% of revenue from the United States and 12% from China, with supplier networks heavily exposed to both.

The findings underscore the difficulty for Berlin in crafting a clear strategy as US-China tensions intensify, Rolf said.

Oil prices extended gains on Monday, with ​Brent headed for a record monthly rise, after Yemeni Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel over the ‌weekend, widening the US-Israel war with Iran in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures jumped $3.94, or 3.5 percent, to $116.51 a barrel at 0703 GMT after settling 4.2 percent higher on Friday.

US West Texas Intermediate was at $102.14 a barrel, up $1.86, or 1.87 percent, following a 5.5 percent gain in the previous session.

“The market has all but discounted the prospect of ​a negotiated end to the war, Trump’s claims of ongoing ‘direct and indirect’ talks with Iran notwithstanding, and is bracing for ​a sharp escalation in military hostilities, which is a bullish signal for crude, with huge uncertainties on the timing and nature of the outcome,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

US President Donald Trump said ​the US and Iran have been meeting “directly and indirectly” and that Iran’s new leaders have been “very reasonable”, as more U.S troops arrived in ​the region, while the Israeli military said on Monday it is attacking the Iranian government’s infrastructure throughout Tehran.

Brent has soared 59 percent this month, the steepest monthly jump, exceeding gains seen during the 1990 Gulf War, after the Iran conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of the world’s ​oil and gas supplies.

The war, launched on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, has spread across the Middle East, ​raising concern about shipping lanes around the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea.

The Israeli military on Monday said Iran launched multiple waves of missiles at Israel ‌and an ⁠attack had also been launched from Yemen for only the second time since the war began.

“The conflict is no longer concentrated in the Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz, but now extends into the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb — one of the world’s most crucial chokepoints for crude and refined product flows,” JP Morgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said in a note.

Saudi crude exports ​re-directed from the Strait of ​Hormuz to the Yanbu port ⁠in the Red Sea reached 4.658 million barrels per day last week, data from analytics firm Kpler showed.

If exports from Yanbu were disrupted, Saudi oil would need to pivot toward Egypt’s Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) pipeline to ​the Mediterranean, JP Morgan analysts said.

Attacks in the region escalated over the weekend and damaged Oman’s Salalah ​terminal despite efforts ⁠to start ceasefire talks.

Iran said it was ready to respond to a US ground attack, accusing Washington on Sunday of preparing a land assault even as it sought negotiations.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said they had covered possible ways to bring an early and permanent end to the ⁠war in ​the region as well as potential US-Iran talks in Islamabad.

Separately, Vietnam’s Binh Son ​Refining and Petrochemical on Monday said it is in talks with Russian partners to buy crude oil. The company said it would also buy more crude oil from Africa, ​the US and Southeast Asia.

Foreign loan disbursement declined by 26.2% in the first eight months (July–February) of the current fiscal year.

According to an updated report published today (30 March) by the Economic Relations Division (ERD), development partners disbursed $3.053 billion during this period, compared to $4.134 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

ERD officials said the slowdown in project implementation due to elections led to the drop in disbursement. The administration remained focused on the election during the current fiscal year, which slowed the pace of development project implementation and affected foreign loan disbursement.

Officials also noted that, similar to the previous fiscal year, there was administrative instability at the beginning of the current fiscal year and during the interim government period. At the same time, there was a lack of confidence among development partners, which further slowed project implementation from the outset.

In addition, after the Awami League government lost power in 2024, many project directors and related officials left their positions. Appointing new project directors took time, and this situation persisted into the first half of the current fiscal year, disrupting both project implementation and fund disbursement.

Meanwhile, ERD data show that in the first eight months of the fiscal year, Bangladesh repaid nearly the same amount to development partners as it received in disbursements.

According to ERD, Bangladesh repaid $2.899 billion in principal and interest on past loans during July–February, while disbursement during the same period stood at $3.05 billion.

In the same period of the previous fiscal year, Bangladesh repaid $2.636 billion to development partners.

Officials said repayments have increased as grace periods for many previously taken loans have ended. However, on a full-year basis, repayments are still expected to remain lower than disbursements. For example, Bangladesh repaid $4.086 billion in the previous fiscal year, while disbursements were $8.56 billion. Similarly, although repayments may rise by the end of the current fiscal year, they are unlikely to exceed disbursements.

ERD data show that Bangladesh repaid $1.943 billion in principal during the first eight months, up from $1.692 billion in the same period last year.

Interest payments during this period amounted to $955.8 million, compared to $944.1 million in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh secured $2.431 billion in foreign loan commitments during July–February, slightly higher than $2.353 billion in the same period last year.

ERD sources said that last fiscal year's student-led uprising, change of government, administrative instability, and lack of confidence among development partners contributed to lower loan commitments. Although the situation has improved in the current fiscal year, the interim government remains cautious about foreign borrowing, which has limited the pace of new commitments. However, commitments are expected to increase under a newly elected government.

Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director at the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development, said development partners generally feel more comfortable working with a stable and democratically elected government. As a result, during the interim government period, both major loan commitments and disbursements remained low except for urgent needs. This contributed to the decline in disbursement compared to the previous fiscal year. Although commitments have increased somewhat in the first eight months, the rise is not significant.

He added that repayment of foreign loans taken in previous years has now become a major pressure. As repayment periods for loans taken under the previous government begin, the amount of repayment is increasing. Currently, disbursement and repayment are nearly at the same level, which could increase pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

According to him, if new loan inflows do not increase, this pressure may intensify in the future. At the same time, global uncertainties, including the Middle East conflict, have increased costs of energy, transport, and insurance. Importing oil and LNG from alternative sources at higher prices is putting additional strain on reserves. The current reserve stands at around $30 billion, and increasing it to $40-45 billion could bring some relief. In this situation, the government is seeking budget support from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank to ease pressure on reserves.

Mujeri said coordinated efforts are essential to tackle the crisis. Strengthening foreign assistance, expanding exports, boosting reserves, and controlling expenditure will help Bangladesh address these challenges.

According to ERD data, Russia disbursed the highest amount – $755.15 million – during July-February, mainly for the Rooppur power project. The World Bank disbursed $636 million, the Asian Development Bank $566.19 million, China $257.72 million, Japan $189.36 million, and India $152.89 million.

In terms of commitments, the Asian Development Bank provided the highest at $1.269 billion during the first eight months. The World Bank committed $416.25 million, while European Union countries pledged $392.07 million.

A dedicated division under Bangladesh Bank spearheads anew stolen-asset-recovery initiative with over 200 high-value non-performing loan (NPL) cases under scrutiny, each involving an estimated Tk 2.0 billion.Bangladesh market analysis

A newly established unit--Stolen Asset Recovery Division--is currently validating the amounts using data from the Credit Information Bureau (CIB), says Farhanul Gani Choudhury, adviser to the governor on stolen asset recovery.

Talking to The Financial Express, he said the 200 cases were shortlisted from NPL data submitted by commercial banks to the central bank. According to compiled information, these cases collectively account for approximately $12 billion or Tk 1.47 trillion in NPLs.

Bangladesh's total NPL volume stood at Tk 5.57 trillion as of December 2025, according to BB data.

Mr Gani clarifies that while the total NPL amount in these 200 cases is under intelligence scrutiny, it does not necessarily mean that the entire sum has been siphoned off.

"The SAR has now started working under a single platform to proceed in a structured way," he says.

The division will prioritise cases based on the number of banks affected by each NPL, he adds.

Under the second phase, SAR has engaged with 40 banks.Personal finance tools

Through civil proceedings, the division aims to determine how much of the NPL amounts in these 200 cases has actually been siphoned off the banking system.

Meanwhile, the first phase of the SAR initiative is also progressing in full swing.

"These 200 cases involve around 200 companies and individuals - a mixed group. While individuals are involved, they often operate through companies," Mr Gani says, without naming names of the suspects.

He notes that many of these borrowers are multi-bank clients, meaning a single individual has taken loans from multiple banks.

Sharif Zahir, chairman of UCB, which was the first bank to sign an NDA in the case involving former land minister Saifuzzaman Chowdhury, has said the response from litigation funders on asset recovery has so far been disappointing.

"One firm, FT, initially responded but later backtracked. Perhaps they found the amount not large enough or not sufficiently attractive," he says.Premium content access

He adds that UCB moved quickly to claim the alleged stolen assets in order to appoint an administrator. Grant Thornton has since taken over the administratorship.

"If we proceed through civil litigation, it is not that difficult to recover stolen assets. However, criminal proceedings require government-to-government agreements, which make the process more complex."

Mr Zahir expresses optimism about recovering at least part of the assets linked to Saifuzzaman Chowdhury, some of which have already been put up for sale in the UK.

On the 200 cases, Mr Gani explains that in cases where a single defaulter is linked to 10 or 15 banks, coordination becomes essential.

For cases involving only one bank, such coordination is not required, and the choice of international firm becomes less critical. However, in multi-bank exposures, a consortium or lead-bank approach is necessary.

"I have established an entirely new department. This work would not be sustainable without a strong institutional structure," he told the FE.

The SAR division consists of around 12 officials led by a director, in line with the organogram approved earlier by former BB governor Dr Ahsan H Mansur and endorsed by the current governor.

At a meeting with senior journalists on Sunday, the new BB governor reaffirmed his position to proceed on SAR without political and other interventions.

A director has already been appointed and is actively working on SAR. Previously, these responsibilities were partially handled by the Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit (BFIU), but now all asset- recovery functions have been consolidated under one umbrella.Bangladesh market analysis

All members of this division are officials of Bangladesh Bank. The structure includes one director from BFIU, two additional directors, four joint directors, and several assistant and deputy directors. Given the technical nature of the work, an IT specialist will also be appointed.

BFIU Director Syed Mahbub, who has been closely involved in SAR efforts from the outset, is also part of the division.

The division of crusaders for stolen asset recovery includes two to three joint directors who have completed two-year master's degrees in asset recovery from the UK, bringing valuable international expertise and knowledge of global best practices.

Under Phase 1, SAR has completed 36 non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) with 10 banks. NDAs have also been signed with nine international firms, and data sharing is now underway.

United Commercial Bank, Janata Bank, National Bank, Al-ArafahIslami Bank, Agrani Bank, AB Bank, and Islami Bank Bangladesh, among others, have signed the agreements with the law firms.

The global law and litigation firms engaged are Kroll, R1 Consortium, Interpath, Dentons/EY, DLA Piper/Unitas Global, PwC/Baker McKenzie, Omni Bridgeway, and Grant Thornton.Personal finance tools

"Data is the most critical element. Everything I have done so far has been through coordination. Now we will be able to assess how viable this data is for building cases internationally," Mr Gani further says.

He explains that prior to signing NDAs, international firms did not have access to case-level data and were relying only on broad macroeconomic estimates of capital flight.

"Now it will become clear how much of this can actually stand up in international jurisdictions. Based on this, they will need to convince their litigation funders. Once they receive positive feedback from those funders, they will proceed with commercial contracts."

The SAR division has already begun seeking feedback from international firms, with mixed responses so far.

Some banks have performed well by properly organising and indexing their data and clearly presenting their proceedings in the Money Loan Court. Others, however, have submitted unstructured data, reflecting gaps in capacity and understanding.

"I plan to organise a best-practice session where better-performing banks will demonstrate to others how to prepare and present data to the required standard," he says.

SAR has also asked international firms to formally outline their minimum data requirements to ensure clarity in expectations.

Officials have observed that not all international firms operate the same way - some are more supportive and flexible, while others are less so.

The 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) of the World Trade Organization (WTO) concluded early yesterday with no significant agreements, except promises to continue working towards consensus on disputed issues among member countries.

The four-day conference, which began on March 26, saw nearly 2,000 officials, including more than 90 ministers, debate key topics such as the moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions and broader WTO reform.

Originally scheduled to end on Sunday, the meeting stretched past midnight as ministers tried to bridge gaps on major issues.

DEADLOCK ON E-COMMERCE MORATORIUM

The WTO’s moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions expired yesterday after nearly three decades. Negotiations in Yaoundé continued late into the night but concluded without a final agreement.

Diplomats worked to reconcile differences between Brazil, which initially sought a two-year extension and later proposed a four-year extension with a mid-term review, and the United States, which pushed for a permanent moratorium to protect major companies such as Amazon and Apple from digital taxation.

A draft proposal for a four-year extension with a one-year sunset buffer, extending the moratorium to 2031, was also discussed but not agreed upon, reports Reuters.

Developing countries, including India, opposed a lengthy extension, arguing that the moratorium denies them potential tax revenue that could be reinvested domestically. Some 66 nations, however, agreed to an interim arrangement pending ratification.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said, “The e-commerce moratorium had expired, meaning countries could apply duties on electronic goods such as digital downloads and streaming. But we hope to be able to restore the moratorium and Brazil and the US were trying to reach agreement on it. They need more time and we didn’t have the time here.”

Cameroon Trade Minister Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana, chair of MC14, added that WTO talks would continue in Geneva, expected in May.

Britain’s Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle called the failure to reach a collective decision in Yaoundé a “major setback for global trade.”

REFORM TALKS MAKE PARTIAL PROGRESS

Ministers and delegates made some progress drafting a plan for broader WTO reform, though no final agreements were reached, reports AFP. They were tasked with creating an action plan to revitalise the organisation, weakened by geopolitical tensions, stalled negotiations, and rising protectionism.

A draft reform roadmap outlining timelines and key issues, seen by Reuters, was close to agreement before the talks ended. Completion of any reform deal, however, will depend on resolving recurring issues, such as improving consensus-based decision-making and extending trade benefits to developing countries. Ministers also fell short of expectations on agriculture and other areas.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala welcomed progress in discussions on WTO reform, fisheries subsidies, and other issues.

KEY OUTCOMES

The WTO announced that ministers agreed to continue negotiations on fisheries subsidies, aiming to present recommendations at the 15th Ministerial Conference for comprehensive rules.

Two decisions were also adopted that had been previously endorsed in Geneva: improving the integration of small economies into the multilateral trading system, and enhancing the implementation of special and differential treatment provisions under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) agreements.

The WTO director-general confirmed that members would return to Geneva with drafts of the Yaoundé Ministerial Declaration on WTO Reform and Work Plan, the Ministerial Decision on Electronic Commerce, the Ministerial Decision on TRIPS Non-Violation and Situation Complaints, and the LDC package.

As energy stress spreads across Southeast Asia, governments across the region are asking China to deliver on its pledges of closer energy security cooperation by freeing up now-banned exports ​of fertiliser and fuel.

But so far China has offered only vague statements and has yet to even publicly acknowledge the export bans reported by Reuters and others as it focuses ‌on insulating its own economy from the war in Iran.

Analysts don’t expect that to change, pointing to the tension between China’s stated ambition to be a bigger player in regional affairs and the realpolitik of its commitment to keep its own economy outpacing global growth.

China is the world’s second largest fertiliser exporter and also a large supplier of fuel. For many countries in Asia including Bangladesh, the Philippines and even Australia, Chinese imports are a major source of supply, now cut off by its export bans.

Dhaka earlier this month asked China to honour existing fuel contracts, while Thai diplomats will engage Chinese counterparts to keep fertiliser shipments from China flowing if needed, officials in Bangkok said.

In Malaysia, officials said last week the Chinese export ban would worsen fertiliser rationing, including in its oil palm industry, the world’s second-largest, and add a further blow on top of the war in Iran.

Even the Philippines has sought assistance despite the two countries’ disputes over the South China Sea.

On March 17, the Philippines minister of agriculture visited China’s embassy in Manila and said China had agreed to continue fertiliser shipments. Beijing’s one-sentence readout said only that they had discussed agriculture.

The same day Australia, which imported a ​third of its jet fuel from China last year, said it was discussing jet fuel exports with Beijing.

“China may offer some ceremonial assistance, but it’s highly unlikely, if not wholly improbable, that it will share any substantive amount of its food, energy, or other reserves with other countries,” said Eric Olander, co-founder of the China-Global South Project.

In addition, we’re talking about the impact of the war in the Middle East.

In fact, analysts said Chinese policymakers were likely quietly congratulating themselves on the strategic foresight to begin stockpiling since the early 2000s, a policy that may have seemed excessive in peacetime but now looks decidedly practical.

People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, trumpeted China’s relative energy security in an editorial earlier this month ​and said the country’s foresight meant China held the “energy lifeline” in its own hands.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to questions from Reuters.

‘A TRIED AND TESTED PLAYBOOK’

China’s flagship Belt and Road infrastructure initiative ‌has seen world leaders regularly congregate in Beijing to discuss ‘win-win’ cooperation but with the region now short on fuel and fertiliser, Southeast Asian capitals are instead looking for replacements from the likes of Russia.

“China won’t want to create expectations it can’t sustain. Beijing has no desire to be a regional energy backstop for an indefinite period of disruption,” according to Ruby Osman, a senior policy adviser at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

Beijing will likely stick to its tried-and-tested playbook: imposing sharp, broad curbs on energy and energy-related exports before selectively resuming trade once officials are confident domestic demand can be met, she said.

Famine and ​scarcity remain deeply embedded in China’s political consciousness, ​with the trauma of Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution still close enough to remember.

“Only if China gets more comfortable with its own exposure, then I would expect meaningful support,” said Max Zenglein, senior economist at the Conference Board Asia. “I expect any support will be very transactional. Not a good position to be in if ​you are one those countries, unfortunately.”

Wang Jin, a senior fellow at the Beijing Club for International Dialogue, a think tank under China’s foreign ministry, said Beijing could also benefit if the shock pushes trading partners to accelerate investment in green and nuclear energy, sectors where China leads after years of state-backed investment.

What is more, with no major aid donor such as Japan, or regional rival, stepping in to plug shortages, China faces little pressure to do so itself, analysts said.

Olander compared the situation to the Covid-19 pandemic, when officials across the region looked to India as Asia’s main source of ⁠vaccines, only for New Delhi to halt exports as infections surged at home.

Osman said China’s partners seeking concessions would do well to remind Beijing of its own commitments.

“Maybe the key is just to quote this new bit of the five-year plan back to Beijing: ‘strengthen international cooperation in food, energy, data, biological and sea passage security, counter-terrorism and other fields.”

Dhaka Stock Exchange witnessed a second consecutive session of losses today (30 March) as persistent sell-offs, fueled by rising US-Israeli tensions over Iran, dragged the benchmark index down. The DSEX fell 41 points to close at 5,230.

Despite declining prices for 59% of listed stocks, turnover slightly increased by 2.69% to Tk663.87 crore, according to DSE data. The other key indices also ended lower, with the DSES down 5 points to 1,061 and the blue-chip DS30 falling 19 points to 1,979.

Among traded stocks, 111 advanced, 231 declined, and 51 remained unchanged.

Trading opened on a positive note at 10 am but lasted only seven minutes before selling pressure gripped the market, pushing indices into the red. Selling intensified in the latter part of the session, keeping stocks under pressure throughout the day.

EBL Securities said in its daily report that investor sentiment remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a nationwide fuel shortage.

"The market continued its losing streak for the second consecutive session, as investors shifted focus from large-cap stocks to momentum-driven speculative scrips," the report said. "Despite a firm start, broad-based selling emerged midway through the session, intensifying toward the close and dragging the index lower."

On the sectoral front, Pharma stocks accounted for the highest share of turnover at 18.2%, followed by Engineering at 11.7% and Banks at 9.7%.

Among gainers, Hakkani Pulp and Paper led with a 9.92% rise to Tk88.6, followed by Intech Ltd with a 9.41% gain to Tk43 and IFIC First Mutual Fund up 7.69% to Tk4.2.

Prime Finance was the top loser, slipping 9.25% to Tk4.9, followed by FAS Finance down 8.57% to Tk3.2 and Fareast Finance falling 8.33% to Tk3.3.

The port city bourse, Chittagong Stock Exchange, also ended in negative territory. Its CSCX and CASPI fell by 7.1 points and 17.7 points, respectively

City Sugar Industries Limited, a concern of City Group, has received regulatory approval to raise Tk1,300 crore through a three-year zero-coupon bond.

The approval was granted by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) at a meeting today (30 March), according to a press release.

The proposed bond will be secured and mortgage-backed, non-convertible, and fully redeemable, with an estimated discount rate of around 13.50%. Under the structure, the company will provide land as collateral, offering enhanced security to investors.

The bond will be issued through private placement to corporate entities, high-net-worth individuals, banks, financial institutions, and insurance companies. Each unit of the bond will carry a face value of Tk13 lakh.

Officials said the proceeds from the bond issuance will be used to repay existing liabilities with various banks and financial institutions, helping the company restructure its debt and improve financial stability.

BRAC EPL Investments Limited has been appointed as the trustee of the bond, while BRAC Bank will act as the arranger. The bond is also expected to be listed on the Alternative Trading Board, providing a platform for secondary market trading.

Syed Rashed Hussain, chief executive officer of BRAC EPL Investments, said the mortgage-backed nature of the bond ensures a higher level of security for investors.

He explained that the company's land will be transferred under the trustee as collateral, and in case of default, the trustee will have the authority to liquidate the assets to repay investors.

He added that this is the first instance of a mortgage-backed bond issuance in Bangladesh, setting a precedent in the local capital market and potentially opening the door for similar structured financing instruments in the future.

Earlier, City Auto Rice and Dal Mills Limited, another concern of City Group, issued a Tk350 crore bond for repaying the debt.

Market analysts believe the move reflects a growing trend among corporates to explore alternative financing options beyond traditional bank loans, while also offering investors more secure investment avenues.