Bangladesh’s net foreign direct investment witnessed a sharp 39 percent increase in 2025, reaching $1.77 billion, according to central bank data.

The growth, however, was driven almost entirely by existing foreign firms, not new investors entering the market.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) data shows that net FDI stood at $1.27 billion in 2024.

Meanwhile, net equity inflows, the most direct measure of new investment, stood at $554.63 million last year, barely changing from $544.63 million a year earlier.

The increase in overall FDI instead came from reinvested earnings, which rose to $781.67 million from $621.96 million, and from intra-company loans, which surged more than fourfold to $434.11 million. Both reflect existing companies financing their local operations rather than fresh capital coming in.

Economists say despite the growth in 2025, the net FDI inflow remains insignificant relative to the size of the economy, particularly in terms of fresh investment. Data indicates that the country is struggling to attract new investors or major expansion projects. In a healthy FDI environment, rising net inflows are typically accompanied by strong equity growth, signalling new projects, job creation, and technology transfer.

Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development, said equity inflows have been persistently low for some time.

“Equity investment is very low, which suggests that new investors are not coming. What we are seeing is largely expansion by existing investors,” he said, attributing the weak equity inflows to broader macroeconomic vulnerabilities and an unfavourable investment climate.

The economist also questioned the gap between official claims and actual outcomes, saying that while the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (Bida) continues to highlight investment prospects, the ground reality does not reflect strong or meaningful inflows.

Rupali Chowdhury, president of the Foreign Investors’ Chamber of Commerce & Industry, pointed to several factors behind the weak inflows.

According to her, the shift to an interim administration, from mid-2024 till February this year, has created uncertainty around long-term investment decisions. In addition, delays in government-backed projects have raised concerns about policy continuity and contract enforcement.

Furthermore, she said episodes of social unrest and “mob culture” have damaged Bangladesh’s image among foreign investors.

A broader global slowdown has also made investors more cautious, with capital flowing to more stable and predictable destinations.

To attract fresh FDI, she stressed the need for consistent policies, respect for contracts, improved infrastructure, and above all, political and social stability.

Khondker Golam Moazzem, research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, meanwhile, pointed out that Bangladesh’s FDI inflows remain subdued, with limited signs of strong growth compared with regional peers such as India.

He said a major concern is the composition of inflows. “Intra-company loans have risen sharply, but these largely reflect financing by parent companies to existing operations, not fresh investment.”

He added, “Greenfield investors continue to face hurdles, including complex licensing requirements, delays in opening bank accounts, land acquisition difficulties, and slow approvals.”

FDI also remains concentrated in traditional sectors, he said, while weak intellectual property enforcement and regulatory gaps have kept investment out of non-traditional, export-oriented industries.

In a similar tone, M Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of the Policy Exchange of Bangladesh, noted that equity accounts for only around a third of total FDI. “This composition is not encouraging for job creation or economic diversification, even though net FDI recorded strong growth in 2025.”

Oil ​prices extended gains on Tuesday as a US-imposed deadline loomed for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or be “taken ‌out”, with US President Donald Trump threatening to order attacks on Iranian bridges and power plants.

Brent crude futures rose $1.44, or 1.3 percent, to $111.21 a barrel by 0700 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $2.32, or 2.1 percent, at $114.73.

Trump has threatened to rain “hell” on Tehran if it fails to comply with his deadline of 8 p.m. ​EDT on Tuesday (0000 GMT Wednesday) to reopen the strait, through which about a fifth of global oil supply is normally shipped, if a ​deal is not reached.

Responding to a US proposal through mediator Pakistan, Tehran rejected a ceasefire and said a permanent end to the war was necessary, and pushed back against pressure to reopen the strait.

Iran’s rejection of the US ceasefire proposal has kept tensions ​elevated and left diplomacy hanging by a thread, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

“Oil is holding its gains because the ​battlefield risk is no longer theoretical. Attacks on energy and shipping assets continue, and traders fear that even if the war ends, damage to infrastructure could sideline barrels for months, not days,” she said.

Exports from several Gulf producers have already collapsed due to restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian forces effectively shut the ​strait after US and Israeli attacks began on February 28.

“Clock-watching is now playing almost as big a role in oil markets as the ​fundamentals themselves in the run-up to Trump’s ultimatum deadline,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

“The potential for a ceasefire deal offers some counterweight ‌and could ⁠spark a relief move lower if it gains traction, but persistent supply worries from the Hormuz chokepoint and damaged energy facilities are keeping the floor under prices.”

The U.N. Security Council is expected to vote on Tuesday on a resolution to protect commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but in significantly watered-down form after veto-wielding China opposed authorizing force, diplomats said.

Attacks in the region continued with explosions heard in the Syrian capital, ​Damascus, and surrounding countryside on Tuesday ​that were caused by the ⁠Israeli interception of Iranian missiles, Syrian state TV reported.

Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday it intercepted and destroyed seven ballistic missiles launched towards its Eastern Region, with debris falling near energy facilities.

The conflict has squeezed global crude supply, ​sending spot premiums for US WTI crude surging to record highs as Asian and European refiners scramble to ​secure replacement supplies amid ⁠disrupted Middle Eastern flows.

Saudi Arabia’s state oil company Aramco raised the official selling price of its Arab Light crude to Asia for May delivery, setting a record premium of $19.50 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average.

Adding to supply concerns, Russia on Monday said Ukrainian drones attacked the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s terminal on ⁠the Black ​Sea, which handles 1.5 percent of global oil supply. Russia reported damage to loading infrastructure ​and storage tanks.

Opec+ agreed on Sunday to lift oil output quotas by 206,000 bpd in May, though the increase will be largely notional as key members cannot boost production because ​strait closures are curbing exports.

In a move to lower financing costs and enhance global competitiveness, the Bangladesh Bank is set to introduce offshore dollar loans for exporters at a significantly lower interest rate.

Under the proposed scheme, exporters will be able to borrow at an interest rate of 8%, substantially lower than the prevailing 14% to 16% charged on local currency loans. The central bank is expected to issue a circular shortly outlining the operational framework, officials said.

Exporters would be permitted to use the funds for day-to-day business expenses, including utility payments, wages, and other working capital needs. The loans will be repaid from export proceeds in foreign currency, reducing pressure on the domestic banking system.

The facility will also allow exporters to convert the borrowed dollars into the taka through currency swaps with their banks if needed, without incurring additional interest costs.

Providing exporters with such facilities will enhance their financial capacity. Consequently, this is expected to bolster their competitiveness in the international market while easing the pressure on the country's foreign exchange reserves.

According to central bank officials, the loan amount will be linked to export orders. "For instance, if an exporter secures an order worth $100 and opens a letter of credit (LC) for $60 to import raw materials, they may borrow up to $40 under the offshore facility to meet remaining operational expenses," an official told The Business Standard.

Banks will be allowed to extend these loans based on their relationships with clients, with maturities ranging from three months to one year, he said, adding that no strict cap on lending has been imposed, giving banks flexibility to assess client needs.

"Currently, there is an opportunity to take this type of loan from the banking system, but it must be taken in the taka and the interest rate is 14% or more. The main objective of providing the facility to take loans from offshore banking at 8% interest is to increase the competitiveness of exporters and support them," the official said.

The Bangladesh Bank will instruct banks to provide short-term foreign currency loans to exporters from offshore banking units, based on established banker-customer relationships.

No further credit limits or additional conditions will be imposed on the banks. Depending on the specific requirements of the customer, banks may extend these loans for a tenure of three months to a maximum of one year.

The initiative follows a reduction in the Export Development Fund from $7 billion to $2.2 billion, a move necessitated by conditions under the International Monetary Fund programme. This reduction has significantly curtailed exporters' access to existing low-cost foreign currency financing.

What experts say

Speaking to TBS, economists and business leaders have welcomed the move, noting that exporters are facing increasing pressure due to declining global demand and rising production costs. They believe the new facility will help improve liquidity, reduce financing costs, and encourage investment.

However, experts have also highlighted risks. If export earnings are not repatriated, loan recovery could become difficult. In addition, exchange rate fluctuations could increase the repayment burden in local currency terms if the taka depreciates.

Mahmud Hassan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said at a time when the country's export earnings are consistently declining, such an initiative to bolster export capacity and support exporters is a highly positive step. However, he noted that the interest rate for these loans should be lower than 8%.

"Currently, when borrowing in dollars from the Bill Transformation Fund and the Technological Development Fund, the interest rate is 5%. Therefore, it is only logical that the interest rate for loans from offshore banking be set at 6% or 7%," he argued.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director and CEO of Mutual Trust Bank, said exporters would naturally benefit if working capital credit facilities were provided through offshore banking. He noted that as businesses are currently facing a crisis, the Bangladesh Bank is introducing this facility to compensate for the reduction in credit available from the Export Development Fund.

"Once this offshore banking facility is launched, instead of borrowing for back-to-back LCs, exporters will opt for these lower-interest loans. However, the significant risk here is that the exports must be executed against the orders, and the export proceeds must be repatriated to the country," he added.

While welcoming the move, Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, advocated for a rigorous vetting process to select eligible borrowers and ensure that these loans are not misused.

"Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves stand at approximately $30 billion. If monthly import costs average $5 billion, it is possible to cover six months of import expenses. Therefore, it is crucial to safeguard our foreign currency and ensure it is not squandered under any circumstances," she said.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, also viewed the decision to lift existing restrictions on loan disbursements from offshore banking as a positive move. He added that allowing loan distribution and currency swap facilities based on banker-customer relationships is also a logical step.

"However, if there is a significant depreciation of the taka due to exchange rate fluctuations, borrowers will have to repay a higher amount in local currency terms. The resulting additional liability must be borne by the borrowers themselves. It is crucial to ensure that they do not seek incentives or assistance from the Bangladesh Bank when such situations arise," he added.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury on Monday said that the government is working with a comprehensive plan to increase people’s income and transform Bangladesh into a trillion-dollar economy by 2034.

Replying to a written question from ruling party lawmaker SM Jahangir Hossain (Dhaka-18) in the Jatiya Sangsad, the finance minister said that according to the latest data published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the per capita income of the country stood at US$2,769 in the fiscal year 2024-25.

He said the present government has set a major target to achieve the milestone of a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, and in this regard a broad-based action plan is being formulated focusing on investment, employment generation, economic democratization, creative economy and sports economy.

The finance minister said the government is not focusing on a single sector to increase per capita income; rather it is simultaneously working on employment, investment, production, exports, remittances, skill development, social protection and macroeconomic stability.

He outlined several key initiatives taken to raise people’s income and strengthen the economy.

The minister said the government is giving top priority to creating new employment opportunities in production, construction, services, ICT, agro-processing and small entrepreneurship sectors to reduce unemployment and increase household income.

Khosru added that steps are being taken to boost private investment and industrialization by simplifying business procedures, ensuring investment-friendly policies and encouraging production-oriented industries to create more jobs and income opportunities.Business intelligence tools

To strengthen the SME and entrepreneurship sector, the government is facilitating easier financing, supporting new entrepreneurs and encouraging women and youth entrepreneurs to expand economic activities at the local level.

The finance minister also said that export growth and market expansion are being prioritized through diversification of export products, exploration of new markets and retention of existing markets to increase foreign earnings and industrial production.

Highlighting remittance, he said initiatives have been taken to enhance overseas employment, improve workers’ skills and encourage sending remittances through legal channels, which will strengthen rural economies and foreign exchange reserves.

Khosru further said that skill development and training programmes are being expanded in line with domestic and international labour market demand so that skilled manpower can secure better jobs and higher income.

“The government is also strengthening agriculture, rural infrastructure and agro-based economic activities to increase production and income at the grassroots level,” he added.

Regarding implementation, the finance minister said some initiatives are already being implemented in the 2025-26 fiscal year, while others will be executed in short, medium and long-term phases.Personal finance consulting

He expressed hope that through sustained efforts in employment, investment, exports, remittances and skill development, Bangladesh will achieve higher per capita income, reduce unemployment, increase purchasing power and move steadily toward becoming a trillion-dollar economy by 2034.

Industrial production in Bangladesh is coming under added pressure as instability in global supply chains disrupts the availability of key raw materials, raising concerns over possible production slowdowns in the coming weeks.

Industry stakeholders report that price hikes are being compounded by acute instability in global supply chains and order processing.

Kamruzzaman Kamal, marketing director of PRAN-RFL Group, said, "We are facing a shortage of plastic raw materials and are currently sustaining our operations solely on existing pipeline stocks."

He cautioned that a prolonged war could lead to production bottlenecks as early as next month.

Saleudh Zaman Khan, managing director of knit apparel manufacturer NZ Apparels, said, "The supply of certain chemicals has become unavailable. The agents who previously imported and supplied us from India are now unable to continue their imports."

He added, "Since we have some stock remaining, we can sustain operations for a few more days. However, smaller firms will face production disruptions very soon."

Industry leaders say the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global fuel supplies, shipping routes and trade flows, contributing to delays and uncertainty in sourcing raw materials.

As a result, both costs and supply risks are rising simultaneously, adding further strain on industrial production.

Overall economic growth in Bangladesh slowed to 3.03% in the second quarter (October–December) of the 2025–26 fiscal year, down from 3.53% in the same period of the previous year, according to data released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics yesterday (6 April).

However, growth was comparatively stronger in the first quarter, reaching 4.96%, up from 3.91% a year earlier.

According to BBS data, the country's GDP at current prices increased to Tk15,176 billion in the second quarter, compared to Tk13,901 billion in the same period of FY2024–25. This indicates that while growth momentum has slowed, the overall size of the economy continues to expand.

Sector-wise performance

The agriculture sector maintained a positive trend, recording 3.68% growth in the second quarter, up from 1.90% in the same period last year. The sector also showed improvement in the first quarter, with growth at 2.11%, compared to a negative 0.12% a year earlier.

In contrast, the industrial sector experienced a significant slowdown. Growth dropped sharply to 1.27% in the second quarter, compared to 5.78% in the same period of the previous year. However, the sector had performed better in the first quarter, posting a 6.82% growth.

The service sector remained relatively stable, growing by 4.45% in the second quarter, up from 3.48% a year earlier. In the first quarter, growth in the sector was also similar at 4.51%.

Despite support from agriculture and services, the slowdown in the industrial sector weighed on overall growth. Experts say that boosting investment, ensuring energy supply, and recovering global demand will be crucial to reviving momentum in the industrial sector.

Bangladesh's heavy dependence on Middle East-based energy supplies has created a major risk for the country's economic growth, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said today (6 April).

"Uncertainties in the essential commodity supply chain, including energy security caused by recent global war situations, could make achieving growth forecasts challenging," he said while presenting the budget implementation progress report for the first quarter of the current 2025-26 fiscal year in parliament.

During his address, the minister emphasised that addressing the severe economic challenges left behind by eighteen years of financial mismanagement and looting is now a primary goal, alongside improving living standards and increasing employment opportunities.

Noting that while the global economy showed signs of recovery from the instability of the last five years, the minister warned that recent global volatility, including the Iran-Israel conflict, could make the economic path ahead even more difficult.

Citing forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, the minister mentioned that growth in advanced economies is expected to stabilise at 1.7% in 2025, while emerging and developing Asian countries may see growth near 5%.

Global inflation, which was 8.7% in 2022, is projected to drop to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.

He noted that inflation in China and India – Bangladesh's primary import sources – is expected to remain near 2% and 4% respectively, which should assist in controlling domestic inflation.

Regarding domestic performance, the minister explained that while contractionary policies aimed at controlling high inflation slowed GDP growth in the 2024-25 fiscal year, recent government initiatives are expected to revitalise the economy.

He highlighted that food grain stocks remain satisfactory and duty concessions on imports are helping manage prices.

Data from the first quarter of the current fiscal year shows an increase in production across large, medium, and small industries.

Additionally, during the July-September period, remittance and export earnings grew by 15.94% and 5.26% respectively compared to the previous year.

By the end of September 2025, general inflation stood at 9.45%, with food inflation at 9.58% and non-food inflation at 9.33%.

To bring these numbers down, the government has implemented various measures including contractionary monetary policy and the cancellation of less important projects.

The government has set a target to reduce average inflation to 7% in the current 2025-26 fiscal year, with further targets of 6%, 5.5%, and 5% for the subsequent three fiscal years, alongside an expected acceleration in GDP growth.

Exporters and manufacturers in Bangladesh are facing growing pressure as rising raw material costs linked to the Middle East war begin to affect previously confirmed orders, limiting their ability to adjust prices and increasing the risk of financial losses.

As prices continue to surge, exporters and manufacturers with pre-existing orders are bracing for significant losses.

ABM Shamsuddin, managing director of knitwear manufacturer Hannan Group, said, "As we have already finalised our export orders, it will not be possible to pass the additional costs on to the buyers. We are forced to absorb these expenses, which may result in losses given our already thin profit margins."

He added, "We anticipate that fabric prices may climb further, as suppliers are now issuing proforma invoices with extremely short validity periods, often less than seven days."

Shamim Ahmed, president of the Bangladesh Plastic Goods Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said, "Due to the fresh hike in raw material prices, many plastic product manufacturers will face losses because they have already accepted purchase orders. It will not be possible to collect the additional costs from the buyers."

However, he added that for new orders, it may be possible to negotiate higher prices to reflect increased costs.

Garment industry stakeholders said weakening global demand for apparel is making it difficult to pass on higher production costs to international buyers, adding further pressure on exporters already dealing with market uncertainty.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has unveiled a comprehensive roadmap to revitalise Bangladesh's capital market, underscoring the government's firm commitment to building a vibrant, dynamic and sustainable financial ecosystem to support long-term economic growth.

Speaking in parliament today in response to a query from Noakhali-5 lawmaker Mohammad Fakhrul Islam, the minister said the government has already incorporated specific commitments for capital market development in its election manifesto.

He underscored that a strong and efficient capital market is critical for economic expansion and long-term financing, adding that coordinated reforms led by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission are underway to achieve these objectives.

Restoring investor confidence remains central to the reform strategy, he said, with measures focused on strengthening governance, ensuring transparency and accountability, diversifying financial products, and expanding market depth. Measures are also being taken to scale up investment education nationwide.

A key priority is positioning the capital market as a major source of long-term financing. This includes efforts to develop a robust bond market, encourage fundamentally strong companies to get listed, and bring state-owned enterprises into the stock market.

The government is also planning to introduce modern financial instruments such as exchange-traded funds, sukuk (Islamic bonds), and green bonds, while improving governance in mutual funds to attract broader investor participation. Initiatives to launch commodity and financial derivatives are also in the pipeline to enhance market sophistication.

To improve market discipline, the minister said, authorities are stepping up efforts to curb irregularities and manipulation by strengthening investigation and enforcement, accelerating digital transformation, and easing market access for both local and foreign investors. Measures to protect whistleblowers and reinforce corporate governance across listed firms are also being prioritised. Strengthening corporate governance across listed companies is another key pillar of the reform agenda.

Legal reforms are progressing alongside these initiatives. The government is reviewing a draft Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission Act, 2025, aimed at consolidating existing laws to boost regulatory efficiency and investor protection.

A draft Capital Market Stabilisation Fund Act, 2026 is also under consideration to ensure proper management of unclaimed dividends, rights shares and IPO proceeds. New whistleblower protection rules and an updated corporate governance framework are in the works to replace the 2018 code and strengthen accountability.

Planned amendments to debt securities rules will incorporate sustainable instruments such as green, blue, orange and social bonds, reflecting a growing focus on environmentally and socially responsible financing.

The minister also highlighted efforts to expand investment education, including integrating it into school, college and university curricula, and organising nationwide training programmes for young entrepreneurs. Awareness campaigns are being rolled out at district and upazila levels, supported by digital platforms and a dedicated programme on Bangladesh Television to enhance public understanding of the capital market.

Oil prices fell in choppy trade today (6 April), as investors awaited clarity on the status of talks between the US and Iran and remained wary about sustained supply losses due to shipping disruptions.

Brent crude futures fell 64 cents, or 0.6%, to $108.39 a barrel at 1109 GMT US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading down 1.2%, or $1.33, at $110.21 per barrel.

The pricing moves in Asia trading on Monday were dwarfed by an 11% surge for WTI and an 8% rise for Brent during the previous trading session on Thursday, the biggest absolute price increase since 2020.

The US and Iran received the framework of a plan to end hostilities, but Iran rejected immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz, after ⁠President Donald Trump threatened to rain "hell" on Tehran if it did not make a deal by the end of Tuesday.

Iran also said it had formulated its positions and demands in response to recent ceasefire proposals conveyed via intermediaries.

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, remains largely closed due to Iranian attacks on shipping after the war began on 28 February.

Some vessels, however, including an Omani-operated tanker, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned gas carrier, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since Thursday, shipping data showed, reflecting Iran's policy to allow passage for vessels from countries it deems more friendly.

"The market is trying to realise what to expect going forward. The most important headline this weekend has been that some ships passed through the Strait," said SEB Research analyst Ole Hvalbye.

Hvalbye also highlighted that Europe continued ⁠to lose physical barrels and products to Asia due to the market tightening.

Seeking alternative sources

The Middle East supply disruptions have led to refiners seeking alternative sources for crude, particularly for physical cargoes in the US and Britain's North Sea. Spot premiums for US West Texas Intermediate crude have jumped to all-time highs on competition between Asian and European refiners.

Indian refiners have also postponed maintenance shutdowns of their units to meet local fuel demand.
On Sunday, OPEC+, consisting of some members of the ⁠Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, agreed to a modest rise of 206,000 barrels per day for May.

However, that decision will largely exist on paper as several of the group's key producers are unable to raise output due to the war.

Saudi Arabia also set the official selling price of May ⁠Arab Light crude oil to Asia at a record premium of $19.50 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, an increase of $17 from the previous month, Aramco said.

Meanwhile, Russian supply has been disrupted recently by Ukrainian drone attacks on its Baltic Sea export terminals. Media reports on Sunday said its Ust-Luga terminal ⁠resumed loadings on Saturday after days of disruptions.

Exports from the Black Sea port of Tuapse are set to rise to 794,000 metric tons in April, up 8.7% on a daily basis from 755,000 metric tons planned for March, according to two traders and Reuters calculations.

Banking sector stocks helped the benchmark index stage a modest recovery today (6 April), as the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) returned to positive territory after two consecutive sessions of losses, despite lingering investor caution.

The DSEX, the prime index of the bourse, rose by 10 points or 0.2% to close at 5,122, snapping its recent downturn, while the blue-chip DS30 index gained 9 points to settle at 1,954. Market activity, however, remained subdued as turnover declined by 8% to Tk470 crore, reflecting continued uncertainty among investors.

Key banking stocks, including BRAC Bank, Prime Bank, National Bank and City Bank played a pivotal role in lifting the index, offsetting broader market weakness where declining issues outnumbered gainers. A total of 149 stocks advanced, while 172 declined and 68 remained unchanged.

According to EBL Securities, the market edged back into positive territory as opportunistic investors engaged in bargain hunting following recent sharp corrections. However, sentiment remained fragile as participants closely monitored geopolitical tensions in the Middle East alongside unresolved domestic concerns, including the ongoing fuel crisis and uncertainty surrounding government austerity measures.

The session began on a strong note, with the index gaining nearly 75 points within the first half hour of trading, driven by early buying interest. However, the initial optimism faded as selling pressure emerged later in the day, eroding much of the gains and pulling the market closer to flat territory before a slight recovery at the close.

Sector-wise, pharmaceuticals dominated turnover, accounting for 15.1% of total transactions, followed by engineering at 13.8% and general insurance at 10.4%. The overall market displayed mixed performance, with cement, mutual funds and banking sectors posting modest gains, while IT, jute and telecom sectors faced declines.

Among the most traded stocks were Dominage Steel, Acme Pesticides, Summit Alliance Port, Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag and Techno Drugs, indicating continued interest in selective scrips.

On the gainers' side, Bangladesh Autocars, Dominage Steel and Familytex posted notable advances, while Trust Bank First Mutual Fund and Tung Hai Knitting also saw strong price appreciation.

Conversely, financial sector stocks remained under pressure, with Prime Finance, Pioneer Insurance, Fareast Finance, Peoples Leasing and FAS Finance emerging as the top losers.

Meanwhile, the Chittagong Stock Exchange also ended the day in positive territory, although its key indices showed marginal movements, reflecting a similarly cautious sentiment among investors in the port city bourse.

The government is facing growing uncertainty over how to mobilise funds to meet mounting expenditure pressures as a surge in global fuel prices threatens to widen the fiscal gap in the upcoming budget.

Officials at the finance division say the cost of subsidies in the power and energy sectors alone could approach Tk1 lakh crore annually, driven by nearly doubled oil and gas prices in international markets amid the Middle East war.

Additional pressure is seen from increased subsidies in agriculture and fertiliser alongside spending commitments linked to the government's election pledges.

However, revenue mobilisation prospects remain weak due to sluggish economic activity, raising concerns over how the government will bridge the widening gap between income and cost.

Against this backdrop, the government's coordination council is set to meet tomorrow to review the overall situation, identify risks and outline strategies for the next fiscal year's budget.

Finance ministry officials said they had initially begun work on a budget of around Tk8.8 lakh crore to Tk9 lakh crore for FY2026, expecting a post-election rebound in investment and employment.

But the overall global situation has forced a reassessment as rising energy costs squeeze fiscal space while revenue growth remains constrained.

Officials are now considering a contractionary budget, with the size likely to be between Tk8.5 lakh crore and Tk8.6 lakh crore.

The government is expected to set a revenue target of around Tk6 lakh crore for the next FY, including approximately Tk5.3 lakh crore from the National Board of Revenue. However, concerns persist over the feasibility of this target.

The Centre for Policy Dialogue has already warned that NBR collections in the current FY may fall short of the target by about Tk1 lakh crore.

"Global economic uncertainty and structural weaknesses in revenue mobilisation have made it increasingly difficult to balance income and expenditure while delivering on election promises," a senior finance ministry official said.

He also said that the final budget size could be revised upward, potentially reaching Tk9 lakh crore, depending on the government's decisions.

The government has set a target of raising GDP growth from a provisional 3.5% this FY to 5% in the next, alongside efforts to contain inflation and boost domestic demand.

However, officials remain sceptical about achieving these targets given global perspectives.

Currently, the government has been managing subsidy pressures through spending cuts and alternative financing measures. These include reducing allocations in various sectors, issuing bonds to borrow from the private sector and utilising funds earmarked for "unforeseen expenditures."

Recent austerity measures include a ban on government vehicle purchases and restrictions on foreign travel funded by the state. While such steps have helped manage additional costs for a few months, officials warn that sustaining them over a longer period will be challenging.

"If the situation persists, adjustments in fuel and power prices may become necessary," the finance ministry official said, cautioning that such moves could further fuel inflation. This, in turn, may require higher allocations for social safety net programmes to protect low-income groups.

While initiatives like the "family card" programme have already been introduced, officials say there is limited scope to expand new schemes in the next budget. Instead, the focus will be on improving efficiency and preventing duplication in existing programmes.

Budget support from development partners is feared to decline sharply, from around $3.5 billion in FY2025 to about $1.2 billion in the current FY. Inflows may remain just above $1 billion next FY, although an additional $1.8 billion could come from the IMF under ongoing programmes.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has said the government is working towards achieving a $1 trillion economy by 2034, outlining a broad set of measures to raise income and sustain economic growth.

He made the statement today (6 April) in response to a written question from SM Jahangir Hossain, member of parliament for Dhaka-18, on the ninth day of the first session of the 13th National Parliament, with Deputy Speaker Kayser Kamal presiding.

The minister also informed parliament that the country's per capita income for the 2024–25 fiscal year stands at $2,769.

"One of the primary goals of the current government is to achieve the trillion-dollar economy milestone by 2034. To this end, the government is creating an action plan taking into consideration investment, employment, economic democratisation, creative economy, sports economy, etc," he said.

He added that the government is not focusing on a single sector to raise per capita income, but is taking a comprehensive approach that includes employment, investment, production, exports, remittance, skill development, social safety and macroeconomic stability.

The minister outlined several key steps initiated by the government to support this goal:

Employment generation and reducing unemployment: The government is giving priority to creating new employment opportunities across production, construction, services, information technology, agro-processing and small entrepreneurship sectors. Increased employment is expected to raise household income and gradually increase per capita income.
Increasing private investment and industrialisation: Measures are being taken to simplify the process of starting and expanding businesses, create an investment-friendly environment, encourage industrial establishment and increase the flow of finance into productive sectors. This is expected to generate jobs and income.
Support for small and medium enterprises: Small and medium enterprises are a major source of employment. Initiatives include simplifying access to finance, supporting new entrepreneurs, encouraging women and youth entrepreneurs and expanding market access. This is expected to strengthen local economic activity.
Increasing exports and market expansion: Efforts are underway to boost foreign income by supporting export-oriented industries, diversifying exports, exploring new markets and retaining existing ones. Higher export income is expected to increase production and employment.
Increasing remittance: Steps have been taken to enhance the skills of workers going abroad, expand overseas employment opportunities, encourage remittance through legal channels and simplify related services. This is expected to strengthen household income and the country's foreign exchange position.
Skill development and training: Technical and practical training is being expanded in line with labour market demands at home and abroad. A skilled workforce is expected to secure better employment and improve productivity.
Strengthening agriculture and rural economy: Initiatives are being taken to strengthen agricultural production, rural infrastructure, irrigation, food supply and agro-based small businesses. Increased rural income is expected to contribute significantly to overall national income.
Implementation timeline: Some of these measures are already being implemented in the current 2025-26 fiscal year, while others will be carried out in phases over the short, medium and long term, particularly in areas such as employment, investment, skill development, exports and remittance growth.

"With the goal of increasing per capita income, the government is taking steps that will increase people's income, reduce unemployment, boost production and investment, strengthen remittance and exports, and simultaneously protect the purchasing power of the common people," the finance minister said.

The country’s economic growth slowed in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 as a sharp fall in industrial activity dragged down overall output, according to provisional data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

The economy expanded 3.03 percent in the October-December quarter, down from 3.53 percent a year earlier, with industrial growth slipping to just 1.27 percent from 5.78 percent in the same period last year.

It was the slowest second-quarter expansion since FY21, when growth fell to 1.28 percent during the Covid-19 disruption.

Earlier in the fiscal year, the revised growth figure for the first quarter stood at 4.96 percent, compared with 3.91 percent in the corresponding quarter of FY25, showing that the slowdown has gathered pace as the year progressed.

At current prices, the size of the economy reached Tk 15,17,615 crore in the October-December quarter of FY26, up from Tk 13,90,147 crore in the same period a year earlier.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, said weak exports, energy constraints and political uncertainty weighed on production.

Besides, reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration affected global trade flows, hurting export-oriented manufacturing.

According to the economist, domestic disruptions like frequent street protests and demonstrations further dented output, especially in energy-intensive sectors such as ceramics.

“Manufacturing investment and production are usually slow in periods of political uncertainty,” Hussain added.

In the October-December quarter, agriculture grew 3.68 percent, up from 1.90 percent in the corresponding quarter a year earlier.

Favourable weather supported Aman rice production this year, compared to last year when flooding in parts of Noakhali region disrupted output, he said.

The services sector expanded 4.45 percent, compared with 3.48 percent in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.

Although higher year-on-year, Hussain said that growth in the service sector usually remains above 5 percent.

According to the economist, poor law and order conditions weighed on service activities.

Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM) and former chief economist of the Bangladesh Bank, said growth has remained weak since the economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war.

He said the slowdown deepened in the latest quarter as both public and private spending tightened ahead of national elections in February.

Usually, the government scales back annual development programme (ADP) spending before elections, while private investors adopt a wait-and-see approach, he said.

Remittance earnings rose about 20 percent year-on-year to $8.67 billion in the second quarter, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

However, economists said the inflows have yet to translate into stronger overall growth.

Mujeri said the current quarter shows little sign of a strong rebound, citing the ongoing war in the Middle East and the risk of higher fuel prices disrupting production across sectors.

Multilateral lenders, however, expect some recovery over the full fiscal year.

The World Bank has projected the economy will expand by 4.6 percent in this fiscal year ending June 2026, despite persistent inflation, falling exports and sluggish investment.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects growth to reach 4.9 percent in FY2025-26.

Industrial production in Bangladesh is facing a severe cost-push crisis as the Middle East war drives up global fuel prices, shipping tariffs, and raw material costs.

A prolonged conflict could further drive up input costs, inevitably trickling down to consumers through higher commodity prices, warn industry leaders.

Exporters, particularly in the garment sector, are already facing financial strain as they are forced to absorb higher raw material costs for orders that have already been confirmed. With global demand weakening, their ability to pass on increased costs to buyers has diminished, eroding profit margins and raising the risk of losses.

Industry insiders say the uncertainty has also triggered panic buying among importers, who are placing larger orders to secure supplies, further fuelling price hikes. In some cases, buyers have even halted new orders amid volatility in global markets.

Interviews with more than a dozen entrepreneurs in both the export and domestic sectors indicate that import costs for various raw materials and chemicals have surged by 10% to 183%.

Key increases include prices of non-cotton fabric by around 19%, polyester filament yarn by 79%, cotton yarn by 18%, chemicals by 50% to 183%, steel raw materials by 17%, clinker by 34%, plastic resin by 67%, and pharmaceutical active ingredients by approximately 30%.

Despite no official increase in domestic fuel prices, transportation costs have already risen by nearly 30%, adding further pressure on production expenses.

Khorshed Alam, chairman of Little Star Spinning Mills Limited, said the price of lyocell fibre has increased from $1.60 per kilogram before the war to $1.90, marking a rise of about 19%. Polyester fibre prices have also risen by around 28%.

Chemical prices have seen some of the sharpest increases. Saleudh Zaman Khan, managing director of NZ Apparels, said prices have risen by 50% to 183% depending on the type, while dyeing chemicals alone have increased by 40% to 50% within a month.

He also highlighted a steep rise in sulphuric acid prices – from Tk55-60 per kilogram to Tk230 within days – warning that such increases could discourage proper use of effluent treatment plants, potentially leading to increased environmental pollution.

Shamim Ahmed, president of the Bangladesh Plastic Goods Manufacturers and Exporters Association, noted that plastic resin prices have surged to $1,600 from $900 in the global market, while Bangladesh remains almost entirely dependent on imports for this key raw material.

Similar trends are evident in the cement and steel sectors. Chanchal Kumar Roy, executive director of Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association, said clinker prices have risen from $43 to $58 per tonne, while steel importers report prices increasing from $600 to $700 per tonne. Some importers have delayed opening letters of credit due to the higher costs.

The pharmaceutical sector is also under pressure. DH Shamim, managing director of pharmaceutical raw material importer BBCON, said that prices of almost all raw materials have increased by an average of up to 30% due to global conditions, raising production costs and putting pressure on the industry.

He noted that gas shortages and rising costs of solvents and other basic intermediates have also increased the cost of producing APIs (active pharmaceutical ingredients), ultimately pushing up overall manufacturing costs.

Although domestic fuel prices remain unchanged, manufacturers claim that transportation costs have already begun to climb in several sectors.

Khorshed Alam pointed out that truck fares between Savar and Narsingdi's Madhabpur have climbed to Tk8,500, up from the previous rate of Tk6,500.

Acute instability in supply chains

Industry stakeholders report that price hikes are being compounded by acute instability in global supply chains and order processing. Kamruzzaman Kamal, marketing director of PRAN-RFL Group, said, "We are facing a shortage of plastic raw materials and are currently sustaining our operations solely on existing pipeline stocks."

He cautioned that a prolonged war could lead to production bottlenecks as early as next month.

Saleudh Zaman Khan noted, "The supply of certain chemicals has become unavailable. The agents who previously imported and supplied us from India are now unable to continue their imports."

He added, "Since we have some stock remaining, we can sustain operations for a few more days. However, smaller firms will face production disruptions very soon."

Losses for pre-existing orders

As prices continue to surge, exporters and manufacturers with pre-existing orders are bracing for significant losses.

ABM Shamsuddin, managing director of Hannan Group, said, "As we have already finalised our export orders, it will not be possible to pass the additional costs on to the buyers. We are forced to absorb these expenses, which may result in losses given our already thin profit margins."

He added, "We anticipate that fabric prices may climb further, as suppliers are now issuing proforma invoices with extremely short validity periods, often less than seven days."

Shamim Ahmed noted, "Due to the fresh hike in raw material prices, many plastic product manufacturers will face losses because they have already accepted purchase orders. It will not be possible to collect the additional costs from the buyers."

However, he added, for new orders, it might be possible to negotiate higher prices to account for the increased costs.

Garment industry stakeholders cautioned that the cooling global demand for apparel makes it difficult to pass on the full extent of increased production costs to international buyers. This scenario is expected to place significant fresh strain on the country's RMG exporters, who are already navigating a volatile market.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission has fined asset management company Bangladesh RACE Management PCL Tk55 lakh for failing to comply with regulatory requirements on investments in listed bonds and government treasury bonds.

The penalty follows findings of irregularities in 11 out of the 12 mutual funds managed by the company, with Tk5 lakh imposed on each non-compliant fund, according to a recent order issued by the BSEC and published on its website.

The regulator also directed the firm to deposit the fine within 30 days of the order, warning that failure to do so would trigger further action under securities laws.

The commission, in its order, noted that the penalty was imposed mainly for failing to invest at least 3% of fund portfolios in listed debt securities and at least 1% in government treasury bonds, as required by regulations.

According to the order, "as per the Commission's directive dated 23 May 2021, a mutual fund shall invest at least 3% of its portfolio value in listed debt securities within 30 June 2022 and shall at all times maintain such investment ratio in the listed debt securities."

The deadline was later extended to 30 June 2023. However, the commission found that, as of 30 June 2025, 11 of the 12 funds under RACE had less than the required 3% exposure to listed debt securities.

In a separate directive issued on 19 February 2023, the regulator mandated that market intermediaries – including asset managers, merchant bankers, portfolio managers, stock dealers and mutual funds – must invest at least 1% of their own portfolios in listed treasury bonds by 30 June 2023 to diversify risk.

The commission found that funds managed by RACE had no investment in listed treasury bonds as of 30 June 2025.

Trustees flagged repeated non-compliance

The Investment Corporation of Bangladesh, trustee of six mutual funds, repeatedly instructed RACE during trustee committee meetings in the 2024-25 financial year to comply with the 3% investment requirement in listed debt securities.

Similarly, Bangladesh General Insurance Company Limited, trustee of four other funds, flagged the issue as non-compliance on several occasions.

The regulator noted that RACE did not act on these instructions.

It is also worth noting that, following observations from the ICB, the Commission sent a letter to RACE on 28 May 2025, seeking an explanation on the matter.

As all the funds had similar observations, the Commission's relevant department issued the letter only in the name of "Exim Bank First Mutual Fund". However, RACE has yet to respond to the Commission's letter.

RACE disputes findings

In a statement issued today (6 April) on the enforcement action, RACE said it had never made any investment in Agni Systems, for which the penalties were imposed.

It added that RACE-managed funds had neither invested in nor traded shares of the company, terming the BSEC order illegal and saying it had immediately informed the regulator.

RACE also addressed the requirement to invest 3% in listed debt securities and 1% in listed treasury bonds, stating that during the relevant period its mutual funds were subject to trading restrictions, bank account freezes, and BO account suspensions, creating what it described as an "impossibility of performance".

It said, as a result, the funds were unable to execute trades, settle transactions, or rebalance portfolios, and therefore could not comply with the investment requirements.

"During this period, the Funds, being incapacitated from executing any trades, settling transactions, or undertaking portfolio rebalancing, were unable to maintain the newly introduced requirement of investing 3% in listed debt securities and 1% in listed treasury bonds," the company said in the statement.

"Accordingly, the alleged non-compliance, if any, concerning investment in debt securities and treasury bonds arises solely from regulatory actions, and not from any negligence or failure on the part of RACE or the mutual funds," it added.

The company further alleged that the regulator had repeatedly targeted RACE by imposing operational suspensions that led to such constraints.

RACE said, "It further appears from the record that BSEC has continuously been targeting RACE and imposing suspensions on its operations, which in turn created an 'impossibility of performance' situation. Thereafter, BSEC's highlighting of such non-performance and imposing penalties as justification for alleged violations of securities laws is tainted with malafide and shares arbitrariness on the part of the regulator."

At an earlier hearing on the matter, before the fines were imposed, RACE highlighted similar points to defend its position.

The company said certain measures – including restrictions and directives – had harmed both the company and the funds it manages. "We have found instances where the restrictive actions are not taken directly by BSEC, but rather BSEC instructs trustee/custodian to take the restrictive action," the company said.

RACE further argued that such continual actions were "against fundamental principles of equity and constitutional fairness in Bangladesh" and detrimental to unitholders. "These unlawful and restrictive actions, arbitrarily imposed, are exacting a heavy price on the wellbeing of the funds, especially eroding their asset value."

The company added that restrictions under trust deeds, particularly sectoral exposure limits, had affected its ability to comply with the investment requirements.

"The Trust Deed as approved by BSEC restriction had a direct and material impact on the ability to comply with the 3% listed debt and treasury bond securities requirement," it said, noting that most such securities in Bangladesh are issued by banks.

"As long as sectoral exposure remained above the 25% limit, the trust deeds prevented the funds from purchasing many of the listed debt and treasury bond securities that would have counted toward satisfying the Commission's requirement."

RACE noted it could only move towards compliance by first reducing bank-sector holdings and rebalancing portfolios within the allowed timeframe.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman yesterday assured business leaders that the export development fund (EDF) may be gradually expanded to $5 billion, according to the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI).

The assurance came during a meeting held at the central bank in Dhaka with FBCCI leaders, said Md Alamgir, secretary general of the apex business body, after the meeting.

Alamgir told journalists that the EDF, formed from foreign exchange reserves to support exporters, once stood at $7 billion but has now declined to around $2.2 billion.

Business leaders urged the central bank to raise the fund to $5 billion, and the governor responded positively, assuring that the amount would be increased in phases, he added.

On lending rates, Alamgir said business leaders stressed the need to keep interest rates stable to encourage investment and maintain industrial competitiveness.

They also recommended gradually bringing lending rates down to single digits.

The business leaders further urged the central bank to increase credit flow to the private sector, saying financing should be directed more towards productive sectors by reducing pressure from public-sector borrowing.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said the proposal to expand the EDF had received the governor’s agreement.

“The fund was reduced because of IMF-related conditions. We have proposed raising it from around $2.5 billion to $5 billion first, and later to $8 billion,” Hatem said.

He added that business leaders also sought relaxation in loan classification rules.

At present, borrowers are classified as defaulters if they fail to repay loans for three months.

Business leaders proposed extending that period to six months. They also urged the central bank to stop the practice under which one defaulting business affects the classification status of its affiliated entities.

In addition, business leaders proposed extending the repayment period after loan rescheduling from the current four to five years to 10 years.

FBCCI also recommended introducing low-cost green financing facilities to encourage investment in renewable energy, including solar power, to reduce energy costs.

Oil prices were little changed in choppy trade on ‌Monday, as investors awaited clarity on the status of talks between the US and Iran even as they remained wary about sustained supply losses due to shipping disruptions.

Brent crude futures rose 76 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $109.79 a barrel at 0656 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude ​futures were trading 53 cents, or 0.5 percent lower, at $111.01 per barrel.

The pricing moves in Asia trading on Monday ​were dwarfed by an 11 percent surge for WTI and an 8 percent rise for Brent during the previous trading session on Thursday, the biggest absolute price increase since 2020.

On Sunday, Trump ratcheted up pressure on Tehran, threatening ​in an expletive-laden Easter Sunday social media post to target Iran’s power plants and bridges on Tuesday if the strategic ​Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Still, prices were largely unchanged on Monday.

Iran and the United States have received a plan to end hostilities that could come into effect on Monday and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a source aware of the proposals said on Monday.

The Strait of ​Hormuz, which carries oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, remains ​largely closed due to Iranian attacks on shipping after the war began on February 28.

“Not being able to open the Strait of Hormuz is ‌becoming ⁠more a question of political victory,” said Mukesh Sahdev, founder and CEO at consultancy XAnalysts.

Because of the Middle East supply disruptions, refiners are seeking alternative sources for crude, particularly for physical cargoes in the US and Britain’s North Sea.

Some vessels, however, including an Omani-operated tanker, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned gas carrier, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since Thursday, shipping data showed, ​reflecting Iran’s policy to allow ​passage for vessels from countries ⁠it deems more friendly.

The war threatens to linger on as Iran has officially told mediators it is not prepared to meet with US officials in Islamabad in the coming days ​and efforts to produce a ceasefire have reached a dead end, The Wall Street ​Journal reported on Friday.

On ⁠Sunday, Opec+, consisting of some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, agreed to a modest rise of 206,000 barrels per day for May.

However, that decision will largely exist on paper as several of the group’s key ⁠producers ​are unable to raise output due to the war.

Russian supply has been ​disrupted recently by Ukrainian drone attacks on its Baltic Sea export terminals. Media reports on Sunday said its Ust-Luga terminal resumed loadings on Saturday after days ​of disruptions.

The dollar was steady on Monday, while the yen flirted with the crucial 160 per dollar level, ​as nervous investors took stock of the escalating Iran war, with all eyes on the latest deadline from US President Donald Trump ‌to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In an expletive-laden Easter Sunday social media post, Trump threatened to target Iran's power plants and bridges on Tuesday if the strategic waterway is not reopened, setting a precise deadline of 8 p.m. Tuesday Eastern Time (0000 GMT).

With most of Asia and Europe closed for holiday on Monday, liquidity is likely to be thin, with investor focus on the possibility ​of a ceasefire after a media report suggested a last-ditch push from negotiators was underway.

"Trump's latest deadline itself is bearish not because ​investors think war is guaranteed tomorrow if Iran does not open the strait, but because every new ultimatum makes ⁠the disruption look longer, stickier and more macro-negative," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore.

The euro was at $1.1523, while sterling last fetched $1.3211. The dollar ​index , which measures the US currency against six rivals, was slightly lower at 100.12.

The Australian dollar was 0.3 percent higher at $0.69045, wobbling near the two-month low that it hit last ​week.

In the kind of mixed messaging that has baffled supporters, foes and financial markets alike, Trump told Fox News on Sunday that Iran was negotiating, with a deal possible by Monday.

Axios reported the US , Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.

Global markets have been rattled ​since the US -Israel war on Iran broke out at the end of February, with Tehran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that is a ​thoroughfare through which about a fifth of the world's total oil and liquefied natural gas passes.

"If the strait is reopened fully around that time (Trump's Tuesday deadline), oil will fall sharply ‌and risk ⁠will rally hard," said Prashant Newnaha, senior rates strategist at TD Securities.

"However, if the US escalates, expect global markets to reprice sharply. It's wait-and-watch in what's turning out to be a binary event."

The closure has caused oil prices to surge well above $100 per barrel, stoking fears of high inflation and upending rates outlooks across the world. Worries about the hit to economic growth have also weighed as stagflation risks swirl.

Traders are now no longer pricing a move from the Federal Reserve well into ​the second half of 2027, compared ​with expectations of two rate ⁠cuts in 2026 at the start of the year.

Data last week suggested US labour market conditions remained calm in March, though economists warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East posed a downside risk.

Two more Indian-flagged liquefied petroleum gas tankers, Green Asha and Green Sanvi, ​have exited the Gulf carrying the fuel for ‌the South Asian nation, according to ship tracking data on LSEG and Kpler.

A third vessel, Jag Vikram, is still ​in the west of the Strait of Hormuz, ​the data showed.

The US-Israeli war against Iran has all ⁠but halted shipping through the strait, but Iran ​says "non-hostile vessels" may transit the waterway if they coordinate with ​Iranian authorities.

Green Asha and Green Sanvi have crossed the Gulf area and are in the eastern Strait of Hormuz, the data ​showed, taking the total number of Indian-flagged LPG ​carriers that have traversed the Strait to eight.

India is gradually moving ‌its ⁠stranded LPG cargoes out from the strait, with Shivalik, Nanda Devi, Pine Gas, Jag Vasant, BW Elm and BW Tyr already reaching India.

India, the world's second-largest LPG importer, is ​battling its worst ​gas crisis ⁠in decades, with the government cutting supplies for industries to shield households from any ​shortage of cooking gas.

The country consumed 33.15 ​million ⁠metric tons of LPG, or cooking gas, last year, with imports accounting for about 60 percent of demand. About ⁠90 percent ​of those imports came from ​the Middle East.

India is also loading LPG onto its empty vessels stranded in ​the Gulf.