Stocks at the Dhaka bourse ended flat last week amid the US-Iran ceasefire, rebounding from the previous week's losing streak.

During the week of 5-9 April, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), DSEX, ended in the green, gaining 37 points and recovering from a 96-point loss in the previous week, according to data.

Turnover stood at Tk3,348 crore, while the daily average turnover increased by 0.20% to Tk669.6 crore. However, the prices of the majority of stocks declined amid sell-offs.

According to DSE weekly data, three of the five trading sessions ended positively, including a strong rebound in one session, with DSEX surging by 205 points in these sessions. Meanwhile, two sessions closed in the negative, weighing on the index by 168 points.

On 8 April, breaking a prolonged bearish spell since the onset of the war, Dhaka stocks rallied strongly, with turnover and indices surging after the US and Iran agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire. DSEX rose by 3.12%, or 161 points, marking its highest single-day gain since 15 February.

As per the data, at the end of last week, DSEX closed at 5,257 points, while DS30, the blue-chip index, surged by 22 points to 2,002, and DSES, the shariah index, and increased by 3.6 points to 1,059.

Of the traded stocks, 138 advanced, 220 declined, 29 remained unchanged, and 24 were not traded.

EBL Securities, in its weekly market commentary, said the capital market exhibited mixed performance over the week as escalating tensions in the Middle East prompted investors to adopt a risk-averse stance and closely monitor unfolding developments.

"The week opened with broad-based sell-offs, fueled by panic reactions to newly announced government austerity measures aimed at addressing the country's potential energy crisis. As the week progressed, sentiment gradually improved.

"Bargain hunters moved in to accumulate oversold large-cap stocks following the government's decision to keep fuel prices unchanged and amid growing optimism over a potential US-Iran ceasefire. This shift in mood supported three consecutive sessions of market recovery," it said.

However, the optimism proved short-lived. Renewed uncertainties surrounding a lasting resolution to the conflict, along with concerns over a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, weighed on investor confidence once again.

It said investors were mostly active in pharma sector stocks, which contributed 15.8% to total turnover, followed by engineering with 14.2% and bank sector stocks with 9.3%.

Sectors exhibited mixed returns, with tannery at 2.4%, bank at 1.7%, and paper at 1.7% being the top gainers, while mutual fund, life insurance, and travel sector stocks emerged as the top losers

Inflation in the United States rose sharply in March, government data showed Friday, as higher energy prices due to the war in the Middle East hit Americans hard.

The nationwide sticker shock put pressure on President Donald Trump, who has ordered peace talks with Iran and faces mid-term elections in November.

The rate of inflation rose to 3.3 percent year-on-year in March, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). By comparison, this same consumer price index (CPI) was 2.4 percent year-on-year a month earlier.

Gasoline prices surged by 21.2 percent between February and March -- the largest monthly increase since the government began publishing a related index in 1967, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said.

Markets had anticipated the surge, according to the consensus published by MarketWatch.

The United States and Israel began bombing Iran on February 28 and Tehran retaliated by blocking traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway used to carry a fifth of the world’s oil and gas deliveries.

Despite being the world’s top producer of crude oil, the United States also felt the pain, as prices at the gas pump shot up.

A gallon (3.78 liters) of regular gasoline currently costs an average of $4.15 in the United States, compared to approximately $3 just before the war.

The Trump administration -- elected in part on a promise to quash inflation -- maintains that the war’s economic disruptions will be temporary.

‘MORE PRICE PAIN AHEAD’

Reacting to the data, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said the US economy “remains on a solid trajectory.”

Economic advisor Kevin Hassett claimed some wins for the White House, citing drops in the price of eggs, beef and concert tickets on Fox News.

US Vice President JD Vance said he hoped for a “positive” outcome as he departed Washington for US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan this weekend.

But experts predicted more economic pain ahead due to the war in Iran, especially for middle and lower-income households already squeezed by rising energy and airfare prices.

Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said that inflation soared in March to the highest level in almost two years.

“This is only the beginning. Food prices, travel and shipping costs are all going up in April and will exacerbate the pain,” she said.

“March CPI was as expected, so no surprises. But there is a huge increase in fuel prices, boosting inflation,” Christopher Low of FHN Financial told AFP.

“And we got the news last night that the ceasefire is not being honored by either side, apparently,” he said. “There’s still very little traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Some economists calculate the oil price surge will cost each US household at least $350 per household.

Consumer sentiment also dipped sharply -- 11 percent -- this month, according to a University of Michigan survey.

During the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting in mid-March, Chairman Jerome Powell said that the war risked delaying efforts to bring inflation under control in the United States.

The US central bank’s target for inflation is two percent -- an objective it has not met in five years due to the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine and tariffs.

AB Bank has made a decisive strategic shift toward micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), moving away from its earlier concentration in large corporate lending, said Reazul Islam, acting managing director and CEO.

The move by the oldest private commercial bank of the country is a recalibration amid a weak economic environment marked by subdued private sector demand and geopolitical uncertainties, he told The Daily Star in a recent interview.

“Excessive concentration in large corporate exposures historically created vulnerabilities,” Islam said.

By distributing loans across a broader base of smaller borrowers, the bank aims to reduce systemic risk -- ensuring that isolated defaults do not significantly undermine overall stability.

“While corporate lending will continue, it will be more selective, with greater emphasis on supporting strong existing clients rather than pursuing aggressive expansion.”

Digital transformation sits at the heart of the bank’s new direction, according to Islam, a veteran banker with 29 years of experience in regulatory management, banking and professional services, who joined the bank in August 2024 as additional managing director.

He informed that AB Bank is developing fully branchless, digital loan processing systems and plans to introduce nano loans pending regulatory approval.

It is also deploying AI-based credit assessment tools and automated decision-making to minimise human intervention and move toward instant, paperless loan approvals via mobile platforms.

By leveraging alternative data sources, such as transaction behaviour and digital footprints, the bank aims to enhance credit scoring accuracy, reduce operational costs, and mitigate risk.

Over time, this digital lending framework is expected to expand beyond personal loans into SME financing, Islam said.

He acknowledged that the bank has lagged behind peers in agent banking and sub-branch reach, with 264 and 60 outlets respectively. “This was largely due to earlier strategic decisions and delayed entry into these segments.”

Both channels are now prioritised for deposit mobilisation and customer outreach, with new expansion targets set, though regulatory approvals remain a constraint.

Approaching 44 years since its founding in April 1982, it has faced repeated cycles of stress from the 1980s through the 2000s but demonstrated resilience by recovering from setbacks.

“This resilience has largely been driven by strong customer confidence, brand loyalty, institutional trust, and the commitment of its workforce,” says Islam.

The bank is currently navigating another difficult phase of high non-performing loans and mounting losses. Yet customers have continued to access their funds without disruption -- a factor Islam credits as critical to preserving confidence.

He says, “Liquidity management at the branch level remains relatively stable, and conditions have gradually improved.”

Islam notes that the deposit situation was particularly strained in 2024, when panic withdrawals amid broader sectoral uncertainty pushed liquidity under pressure. Total deposits fell roughly 9 percent that year to Tk 32,292 crore. The bank responded by ensuring uninterrupted cash availability and reinforcing employee confidence.

The effort paid off. Deposits recovered to Tk 34,465 crore by September 2025, with liquidity pressures easing and customer confidence gradually returning. Support from the central bank was instrumental during the peak of the crisis.

Islam, however, notes that structural challenges persist. Many loans have been rescheduled or placed under moratoriums, with repayment delays stretching up to two years -- meaning meaningful cash inflow improvements are unlikely before 2027-2028.

The bank has set targets to reduce NPLs by 20-25 percent in the near term and 30-40 percent over time, and has engaged international asset recovery firms to trace and reclaim overseas assets linked to defaulted loans.

“While this is a time-intensive process, early indications suggest some progress,” says the bank’s CEO.

On costs, the bank is targeting a 25 percent year-on-year reduction and has already achieved around 15 percent savings in recent quarters.

The private bank’s overall recovery plan spans three to five years -- from 2025 through 2027 and beyond -- and a longer-term vision extending up to a decade.

The timeline remains contingent on external economic conditions and policy support, but the direction is clearly focused on rebuilding stability and strengthening fundamentals.

Islam says the strategy is built around digital transformation, SME-focused lending, cost efficiency, deposit growth, and improved governance.

In terms of shareholder returns, he notes that the bank is not in a position to pay dividends in the near term due to its current financial condition.

Management remains focused on restoring profitability and operational stability before resuming dividend payments, he adds.

The managing director described the current board of the bank as professional and supportive, with decision-making processes aligned with management priorities.

While acknowledging that governance issues may have contributed to past challenges, he emphasised that ongoing reforms are focused on strengthening transparency, accountability, and professionalism.

Bangladesh's tax authority is once again pledging to introduce a fully automated compliance monitoring system, this time with a deadline. The National Board of Revenue (NBR) says it aims to roll out a nationwide automated system by 2027 to curb widespread tax evasion and improve the country's declining tax-to-GDP ratio.

The move comes as revenue collection faces increasing pressure, with Bangladesh recording one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios in Asia. Despite more than a decade of efforts and significant spending on digitalisation, only limited portions of income tax, VAT, and customs services have been automated so far.

Senior NBR officials said the plan will begin by making existing online return filing and e-audit systems fully functional. This will be followed by the introduction of risk-based audits for both individual and corporate taxpayers within the year. The authority also plans to integrate real-time data with key institutions – including banks, land offices, and vehicle registration authorities – before launching the full monitoring system.

NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan said, "While several tax services are already online, the next step is to link tax data with other government and financial databases. Once integrated, the system will be able to track transactions more efficiently and identify non-compliant taxpayers quickly."

However, the timeline has raised doubts among experts and former officials, who note that similar promises over the past 15 years have seen limited success. Large-scale projects funded by both domestic and foreign sources have failed to deliver the expected level of automation.

Former NBR chairman Muhammad Abdul Mazid believes full automation within a year is unrealistic. "Automation has been discussed since the 1990s, yet meaningful results remain limited," he said.

He also questioned whether there is sufficient internal support within the NBR for such a system, noting that both some officials and non-compliant businesses may lack incentives to embrace full transparency. He added that past projects often consumed time and funds on consultancy, logistics, and administration without producing tangible outcomes.

Mazid emphasised that while the 2027 deadline may be ambitious, the NBR must remain committed to implementation. He also stressed the need to bring all relevant institutions under digital systems to enable effective data sharing.

Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio has declined from around 10% a decade ago to just 6.6% in the 2024-25 fiscal year – one of the lowest in Asia. Experts attribute this to tax evasion, widespread exemptions, and institutional inefficiencies.

There is no official estimate of revenue losses due to tax evasion, but a study by the Centre for Policy Dialogue suggests that losses exceeded Tk1.26 lakh crore in 2023.

Over the past decade and a half, the government has launched more than ten initiatives to automate tax administration, including online TIN registration, income tax returns, VAT systems, refund mechanisms, customs bond automation, and the National Single Window. However, many of these systems remain only partially functional. For instance, the online income tax system still relies partly on manual processes, while VAT automation and customs bond systems continue to face operational challenges.

Weak data integration

Stakeholders say resistance from some officials, frequent leadership changes at the NBR, and political transitions have slowed progress. Data integration with other institutions has also lagged, limiting the effectiveness of enforcement.

Currently, tax authorities must manually collect data from banks, land offices, city corporations, and utility providers, making it difficult to detect tax evasion at scale. Although there have been efforts to access banking data, lack of cooperation from financial institutions has hindered progress.

The Bangladesh Bank has verbally cautioned several commercial banks against purchasing US dollars at elevated rates in a move to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.

The matter was discussed during a meeting between the central bank governor, Md Mostaqur Rahman, and the Association of Bankers Bangladesh (ABB) held in the capital today (9 April).

A senior Bangladesh Bank official told TBS that the regulator had observed that some banks were purchasing dollars at excessive rates. "As a result, banks have been instructed to refrain from buying or selling dollars at inflated prices."
He added that the exchange rate would be determined by supply and demand, with no direct intervention by the central bank.

According to the official, the current supply of dollars remains strong, while banks are also maintaining a healthy net open position. In such a situation, purchasing dollars at higher rates could destabilise the market, prompting the central bank to advise strict compliance.

A senior official of a private bank said the Bangladesh Bank instructed banks to purchase remittance dollars from money exchange houses within Tk123.10. It also directed that interbank transactions should not exceed Tk122.75.

However, officials at several banks told this newspaper yesterday that they had purchased remittance dollars at Tk123 from exchange houses.

Bankers noted that interbank dollar transactions have declined over the past two days following the central bank's instruction to cap the rate at Tk122.75.

They explained that banks are reluctant to sell dollars at Tk122.75 in the interbank market after purchasing remittance at higher rates, which has contributed to reduced trading activity.

ABB seeks relaxation on bonus rules

During the meeting with the governor, the ABB called for a revision of a December 2025 circular that prohibits banks with capital or provision deficits from granting incentive bonuses to their employees. Bank representatives argued for a move away from this rule to ensure staff remained motivated.

According to a senior official, the governor expressed a willingness to consider a new circular. This could potentially allow banks with capital shortfalls to provide bonuses, provided they at least maintain their required provision levels.

Furthermore, the ABB demanded the removal of the current Tk15 lakh ceiling on annual bonuses for bank managing directors. Existing regulations mandate that an MD's bonus cannot exceed this limit and that no other bank official can receive a higher bonus than the MD.

ABB Chairman Mashrur Arefin said the association also proposed raising the personal loan limit from Tk20 lakh to Tk40 lakh.

In addition, a proposal was made to allow banks to provide up to 90% financing for the purchase of hybrid vehicles.

K&Q Bangladesh Limited has entered into a direct operator billing agreement with Robi Axiata Limited to facilitate voucher sales for digital services such as Netflix, Google Pay and other platforms, a move expected to strengthen its revenue base and accelerate growth in the digital services segment.

According to disclosures from the Dhaka Stock Exchange, the partnership will allow the company to tap into Robi's extensive subscriber network, significantly enhancing its reach in the rapidly expanding digital payments and content ecosystem.

In addition to the latest agreement, the company has been actively expanding its footprint in the digital and technology space.

Earlier this year, K&Q Bangladesh signed an agreement with Bangladesh Satellite Company Limited to act as an authorised partner and sales agent for Starlink satellite-based internet services in Bangladesh. Under this arrangement, the company will handle nationwide marketing, sales, implementation, and operational activities for the service.

Separately, the company has also entered into an Application-to-Person (A2P) aggregator agreement with Robi Axiata, enabling it to provide SMS and notification delivery services for various applications and digital platforms. These services will be offered under a license issued by the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission.

In the first half of the 2025-26 fiscal year, the company reported earnings per share (EPS) of Tk5.83, marking a sharp increase from Tk1.67 in the same period a year earlier. Its net asset value per share (NAVPS) stood at Tk107.55 as of 31 December 2025.

For the FY2024-25, the company posted EPS of Tk9.49, a significant jump from Tk0.67 in the previous year, reflecting a notable turnaround in profitability. The board declared a 4% cash dividend for shareholders, while NAV per share rose to Tk101.72 at the end of June 2025.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the primary regulator of listed companies, has approved the transfer of 8.10 lakh shares of Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC sponsor-director Anwer Hossain Khan to Bangladesh Finance.

The DSE approved the share transfer outside of a gift transaction under Listing Regulation 47(1) (d) and other applicable laws, according to a disclosure published today (9 April).

Under this regulation, share transfers are allowed in cases of confiscation or loan default.

Based on the latest closing share price of Tk17.90 per share, the market value of the transferred shares amounts to Tk1.45crore.

The shares are to be transferred within the next 30 working days.

Anwer Hossain Khan is one of the sponsors and a former chairman of Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC.

According to the bank's 2024 annual report, he is also the chairman and managing director of Anwer Khan Modern Medical College & Hospital Limited, Modern Diagnostic Centre Limited, Anwer Khan Modern Nursing College, and Hazi Sakawat Anwara Modern Eye Hospital Limited, among others.

According to the shareholding report as of December 2025, Anwer Hossain Khan owns 3.02 crore shares, or a 2.71% stake, in the company.

In October last year, the DSE approved the transfer of 30.62 lakh shares of Shahjalal Islami Bank held by Anwer Hossain Khan to LankaBangla Finance.

In 2025, Shahjalal Islami Bank reported a sharp rise in profitability, driven by strong growth in investment income and improved operational performance, while announcing a higher cash dividend for shareholders.

According to the bank's latest financials, its consolidated net profit surged 118% year-on-year to Tk368 crore in 2025, up from Tk169 crore in the previous year.

On the back of this improved performance, the board of directors recommended a 13% cash dividend for the year, up from 10% in 2024.

The bank attributed the strong profit growth mainly to higher net investment income, increased earnings from shares and securities, and a rise in other operating income.

Improved cash flow was supported by higher investment income and increased placements with banks and financial institutions.

Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East unsettled Bangladesh's stock market today, as the sudden collapse of the Iran–US ceasefire erased investor optimism and triggered broad-based selling across sectors.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) witnessed a broad-based decline, with the DSEX shedding 60 points to close at 5,257. Of the 390 traded securities, 306 issues declined, 70 advanced, and 14 remained unchanged, reflecting heightened investor caution.

According to EBL Securities, the market opened sharply lower as panic selling gripped investors early in the session.

Although a brief wave of bargain hunting provided temporary support, selling pressure intensified as the session progressed, driven by fading confidence and persistent uncertainty surrounding the evolving Iran–US conflict.

Turnover also took a hit, dropping 22% to Tk776 crore from Tk991 crore in the previous session, indicating reduced participation as cautious investors refrained from taking fresh exposure.

Sector-wise, engineering stocks dominated turnover, accounting for 15.9% of the total, followed by pharmaceuticals at 12.7% and textiles at 9.3%. Despite relatively high activity in these sectors, most ended in negative territory.

Mutual funds, travel, and life insurance stocks recorded the steepest corrections, reflecting the broader risk-off sentiment. A handful of sectors, including services and tannery, managed to post marginal gains, but these advances were insufficient to offset the overall market decline.

Among individual stocks, Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag topped the turnover chart, followed by Acme Pesticides, Lovello Ice-Cream, and Dominage Steel.

On the gainers' side, Bengal Windsor Thermoplastic led the rally, while Prime Finance, Familytex, Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC), and Generation Next emerged as the worst performers of the day.

The bearish sentiment extended to the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), where both key indices closed lower. The CSCX declined by 20 points, while the CASPI fell by 44.2 points, mirroring the cautious stance of investors across the country's equity markets.

As part of efforts to stabilise the market, the government is considering retaining existing taxes and duties on fuel imports even if retail fuel prices are raised.

For instance, the government currently earns around Tk38 per litre of petrol priced at Tk120. Under the proposed approach, the tax component would not be changed even if the retail price is adjusted to Tk140, instead of rising proportionately to about Tk45.

This would effectively prevent a Tk7 increase in consumer prices. Although the move would reduce government revenue, the authorities are pursuing a strategy of keeping fuel prices slightly lower in May and June to help contain inflation.

Officials said any upward adjustment in fuel prices would add to inflationary pressure, given its wide impact on overall costs. However, keeping taxes unchanged would help limit the extent of that pressure.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has asked the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to submit an urgent report analysing the potential impact of such a move on state revenue collection.

The directive was issued yesterday at the second meeting of the Fiscal, Monetary and Exchange Rate Coordination Council for the 2025-26 fiscal year. Several senior officials told TBS that the council also discussed broader measures aimed at easing inflationary pressure in the economy.

These include instructions to reduce additional costs faced by importers at ports, measures to lower cost build-up in pricing calculations across various commodities through directives to the commerce ministry.

The council further decided to explore the creation of a large fund to revive sick and closed industrial units. The proposed fund would be formed through a combination of loans from development partners and resources from the central bank's own financing mechanisms.

The virtual meeting, chaired by the finance minister, was attended by the governor, finance secretary, secretary of the Financial Institutions Division, NBR chairman, Economic Relations Division secretary, commerce secretary, and senior finance division officials, along with other ministry representatives.

Speaking to TBS after the meeting, Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said the coordination council had decided to reduce value-added tax and import duties on essential commodities.

"No country in the world imposes such high levels of duties and taxes on essential goods. These duties and VAT rates will be gradually reduced." he said. He added that discussions also focused on preventing traders from engaging in unjustified price hikes.

No need for fuel price hike if duties unchanged

Finance officials said that more than 32% in various duties, taxes and VAT are currently imposed on imported fuel oil. The NBR collects around Tk15,000 crore annually from this sector.

Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the government is now importing fuel at nearly double the previous prices, which has also doubled the volume of revenue collection.

"The BPC and Petrobangla sell fuel and gas at prices lower than their import cost. The Energy Division has long argued that the duties, taxes and VAT imposed by the NBR on fuel imports are unjustified. However, the NBR has not moved due to concerns over revenue loss," said one finance division official.

He also mentioned that the IMF has been pressing Bangladesh to reduce subsidies. In that scenario, fuel prices would need to be raised, which would significantly increase inflation. Against this backdrop, he said keeping existing duties, taxes and VAT on fuel imports could help the public.

"Fuel prices are adjusted by the government at the end of each month. Therefore, the finance ministry has asked the NBR to submit an analysis report before the end of May, ahead of the next price adjustment, on the likely impact of such keeping taxes unchanged," said another finance official.

Fund to revive sick industries

Finance ministry officials said a large fund will be created in the next fiscal year's budget to revive closed and sick industries, a commitment reflected in the BNP's election manifesto.

To this end, the council has instructed the Economic Relations Division to seek loan assistance from the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the World Bank.

"The fund will be formed by combining resources from development partners with financing from Bangladesh Bank," said a ministry official.

However, amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the government has not taken any decision to increase incentives to boost remittance inflows. Instead, the focus will be on simplifying remittance transfer processes and ensuring that banks can disburse funds to recipients' families as quickly as possible.

The Bangladesh Bank has been tasked with taking necessary measures in this regard.

Tk9.2 lakh crore FY27 budget

Finance officials said the ministry at the Coordination Council meeting proposed a large budget of over Tk9.20 lakh crore for FY27, as the government moves to contain inflation and create jobs.

They said higher spending will be driven mainly by global economic risks, rising subsidies and increased allocations for social protection. Additional interest payments and a planned partial salary adjustment for government employees are also contributing to the expansion of the budget.

Officials noted that total revenue mobilisation for the next fiscal year may be set at around Tk6.90 lakh crore. Of this, more than Tk6 lakh crore is expected to come from the NBR.

In the current fiscal year's original budget, the NBR was tasked with collecting nearly Tk5 lakh crore. The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has warned that the shortfall could reach Tk1 lakh crore by year-end. Despite this, the revised budget has already raised the revenue target by an additional Tk20,000 crore.

Rising subsidy burden, economic outlook

Higher global fuel prices are expected to raise subsidy requirements by Tk36,000 crore, the finance minister said on Thursday. The original allocation for gas and electricity subsidies stood at Tk42,000 crore.

Officials said the additional pressure has pushed the government to increase revenue targets.

Inflation for the next fiscal year is being targeted at 7.5%. Finance officials said easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and stabilising fuel prices could help bring inflation closer to the target.

The GDP growth estimate has not yet been finalised, with officials considering a range of 6.2% to 6.5%. International agencies, however, have projected Bangladesh's growth at around 3.9% for the current fiscal.

The finance minister, finance secretary and ERD secretary travelled to Washington on Friday night to attend IMF meetings. An official present at the Coordination Council meeting said discussions were concluded early due to the visit. Budget deliberations are expected to resume after their return.

In a statement to parliament on 10 April, the finance minister said budget preparations are underway amid multiple economic pressures. He said the objective is not only growth, but also a sustainable, transparent and inclusive economy, while acknowledging public expectations and inherited constraints.

Fiscal framework and financing mix

The FY26 budget was set at Tk7.90 lakh crore, later revised to Tk7.88 lakh crore following cuts in development spending and higher allocations for subsidies and operating costs.

Officials said the FY27 budget deficit is projected at around Tk2.70 lakh crore, within 5% of GDP. Of this, around Tk1.50 lakh crore is expected from domestic borrowing, while Tk1.20 lakh crore will come from external sources, largely as budget support.

The finance minister has directed the NBR to prepare a plan to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 10% by FY28. Measures to reduce the cost of doing business and revive closed industries were also discussed at the coordination meeting.

Spending priorities, welfare programmes

Around 67% of expenditure in the next budget is expected to go towards operating costs, while 33% will be allocated to development spending. Officials said large-scale new development projects are unlikely in the near term.

The government also plans to introduce a "Family Card" programme covering 50 lakh families, along with separate cards for farmers, fishermen and livestock producers. A youth sports initiative will provide scholarships for talented athletes aged 12 to 14.

Salary increases for public sector employees and expanded job creation commitments are expected to cost nearly Tk1 lakh crore in the next fiscal year.

The latest amendment to the labour law has sparked concern among experts and labour leaders, who warn that key provisions introduced during the interim government have been rolled back, potentially depriving many employees of benefits and protections.

The Labour (Amendment) Bill 2026, passed in the parliament on Thursday, has removed provisions that had brought officials and employees under the definition of workers, raising concerns that many will now be excluded from benefits such as gratuity, provident fund and other service entitlements.

The bill was passed in parliament by voice vote after being placed by State Minister for Expatriates' Welfare and Overseas Employment Md Nurul Haque on behalf of Labour and Employment Minister Ariful Haque Chowdhury.

The earlier amendment had been introduced through an ordinance issued on 17 November 2025 by the interim government.

Experts said the removal of officials and employees from the worker definition would leave many without access to benefits guaranteed under the labour law. They also noted that the new amendment modifies a previous provision that stated workers could not be blacklisted, replacing it with a clause that workers cannot be "unfairly blacklisted."

In addition, several fundamental rights of trade unions and collective bargaining agents have been curtailed, including their ability to file cases in court or represent workers in certain forums. Provisions related to the formation of provident funds have also been made stricter, according to experts.

Syed Sultan Uddin Ahmed, chairman of the Labour Reform Committee during the interim government, told TBS that the changes do not align with earlier commitments. "Several agreed provisions from the tripartite committee have not been included in the new amendment," he said.

He added that the committee had recommended including officials and employees under the labour law framework so they could access service benefits similar to workers. "Now these people will be deprived," he said.

Criticising the changes, Nazma Akhter, general secretary of Bangladesh Labour Congress, said the decision to exclude officials and employees is not justified. "After working for 10 to 15 years or more, they receive no benefits beyond salary. The previous inclusion should not have been withdrawn," she said, urging reconsideration.

She also opposed the revised clause on blacklisting, arguing that the issue concerns workers' rights rather than questions of fairness. "Blacklisting itself deprives workers of their rights," she said.

Nazma further warned that limiting the authority of collective bargaining agents undermines workers' representation and violates Bangladesh's commitments under international labour standards. "This is a violation of Bangladesh's commitments to the ILO Convention."

TBS attempted to contact M Humayun Kabir, additional secretary at the Ministry of Labour and Employment, for comment. However, he did not answer the call, and there was no response to a text message detailing the enquiries by the time of publication.

BKMEA hails the move

The amendment comes after the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association called for the removal of officials and employees from the worker definition, among other demands.

The organisation welcomed the passage of the bill, stating that earlier changes introduced ambiguity and could have created unrest in the industrial sector. It also warned that such provisions risked sending negative signals to foreign buyers.

Khalilur Rahman, Bangladesh's foreign minister, said the country is pursuing a "slowly but surely" approach to strengthening bilateral relations with India, emphasising patience and incremental confidence-building following the formation of a new government.

In an interview, Rahman described the future of ties through the prism of a "slowly but surely" concept, signalling a preference for gradual progress over rapid diplomatic breakthroughs. He characterised the current atmosphere in New Delhi as one of convergence, noting that both neighbours are "willing to engage, talk and take initiatives" after Tarique Rahman assumed office, says NDTV.

He said Dhaka's strategy centres on gradual normalisation rather than accelerating negotiations, stressing the importance of "patient confidence-building" to rebuild trust and sustain long-term cooperation.

Energy cooperation has emerged as a key indicator of improving ties, Rahman said, pointing to India's support during global energy disruptions. "We have a pipeline and India is supplying diesel to Bangladesh," he said, referring to ongoing supplies during the Middle East crisis.

Water sharing and climate resilience are also expected to play a central role in future engagement. With the Ganga Water Treaty due for renegotiation later this year, Rahman described equitable water management as a "civilizational bond". "Water is finite. Ganga means life," he said, underscoring the importance of the river system.

He also highlighted shared environmental challenges, saying, "People are people. Whether it is in India or Bangladesh, we are facing exactly the same type of climate crisis," and called for a climate-resilient framework that could underpin bilateral relations for decades.

On broader strategic and economic relations, Rahman said Bangladesh's foreign policy is not a "zero-sum game". "Our relationship with other countries is not a problem," he said, referring to ties with partners such as China, which he said are driven by market forces rather than strategic alignment against India. He characterised India as a "structural presence" in Bangladesh's development, particularly in regional infrastructure and economic integration.

Rahman also highlighted the importance of people-to-people connections, citing shared cultural and geographic links, including borders and rivers. He said improving visa systems would be key to facilitating greater mobility and delivering tangible benefits for citizens in both countries.

An amendment to the Bank Resolution Ordinance has created a legal pathway for former owners to reclaim control of distressed banks currently under resolution.

The amendment specifically impacts the ongoing merger of five distressed institutions – First Security Islamic Bank, Social Islamic Bank, Union Bank, Global Islamic Bank, and Exim Bank – which were being consolidated into Sammilito Islami Bank under the previous interim government's reforms.

Under the new provision passed in the parliament on Friday, former owners can apply to the Bangladesh Bank to reacquire their shares, assets, and liabilities, potentially leading to the dissolution of the newly merged entity.

Of the five banks, four were controlled by the S Alam Group chairman and controversial businessman Saiful Alam, while Exim Bank was under the control of Nassa Group Chairman Nazrul Islam Mazumder.

Experts have criticised the amendment, warning that it undermines the credibility of banking sector reforms and effectively allows those responsible for financial distress to regain control.

Conditions for ownership recovery

The government amended the ordinance by introducing Section 18A. Under the new regulations, applicants seeking to regain control must submit a formal undertaking. This includes a pledge to repay all funds as determined by the government or the central bank, provide fresh capital, and restore financial solvency.

They are also required to settle all liabilities to depositors and creditors, pay outstanding taxes, and reconstruct risk management and compliance frameworks.

Financial terms for the recovery include an initial pay-order of at least 7.5% of the total determined amount within three months of approval. The remaining 92.5% must be paid over two years with a 10% simple interest rate.

Following approval, the Bangladesh Bank will supervise the institution for two years before a special committee conducts a final investigation into compliance, with the option to revoke approval in case of failure.

Government defends 'market solution'

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury described the move as a "market solution" aimed at ensuring fairness, equity, and investment protection.

He explained that the government has already invested approximately Tk80,000 crore into weak banks and may need another Tk1 lakh crore – a financial burden he described as unsustainable in the current global economic climate.

"This new arrangement places the obligation of recapitalisation and liability settlement on the applicants, reducing the pressure on the government and the Deposit Insurance Fund," the minister stated.

He added that the option remains open to any suitable party deemed fit by the central bank, not just former shareholders, and argued that keeping banks operational preserves asset value and protects employment.

Experts warn of 'credibility destruction'

The move has drawn sharp criticism from experts who were involved in drafting the original resolution framework.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist of the World Bank's Dhaka office and a member of the interim government's banking reform task force, warned that the amendment destroys the credibility of the reform process.

"A clear roadmap has been provided for former owners to re-occupy banks that were distressed due to their own mismanagement and the siphoning of funds," he told The Business Standard.

The economist estimated that for the five merged banks, the total required payment would be roughly Tk35,000 crore. He expressed concern that the terms are so lenient that former owners could easily pay the initial 7.5% and borrow the remainder from the banking sector itself.

Uncertain future for Sammilito Islami Bank

According to Zahid, the future of Sammilito Islami Bank now rests entirely on the discretion of the returning owners. "If they choose to operate the five banks as separate entities once again, the merged institution will cease to exist."

He noted that the move sends a signal to the market that individuals responsible for financial irregularities can still return to positions of ownership.

India has further ​raised a windfall tax on exports of ‌diesel and aviation turbine fuel it imposed last month to ensure adequate domestic supply.

In a government notification on ​Saturday, India's finance ministry increased the tax ​on diesel exports to 55.5 rupees per ⁠litre from 21.5 rupees per litre, and on ​exports of aviation turbine fuel to 42 rupees ​per litre from 29.5 rupees per litre, effective immediately.

India also last month cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by ​10 rupees ($0.11).

Separately, to control a rise in airfares, ​it has also capped a monthly increase in aviation turbine ‌fuel ⁠prices for domestic airlines at 25% in April. Jet fuel accounts for up to 40% of an airline's expenses.

Global oil prices have surged past $100 ​per barrel ​as the ⁠flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, which serves as a conduit ​for 40% of India's crude oil ​imports, ⁠remains heavily restricted due to the US-Iran war.

India, which ranks among the top five refining nations globally and ⁠is ​also the world's third-biggest oil ​importer and consumer, relies heavily on overseas supplies.

Eastern Bank PLC (EBL) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Mongla Port Authority (MPA) to introduce advanced digital banking services at Mongla port.

Md Jabedul Alam, head of transaction banking at the bank’s corporate banking division, and AKM Anisur Rahman, member (engineering and development) of MPA, signed the MoU recently at Mongla port in Bagerhat, according to a press release.

The partnership aims to improve the efficiency of financial transactions at the port by implementing secure, modern and seamless digital payment and collection solutions.

Under the initiative, EBL and MPA will jointly develop a comprehensive digital ecosystem, enabling port users to carry out transactions smoothly through the bank’s digital banking platform.

Among others, Captain Mohammad Shafiqul Islam, harbour master of the MPA; Md Kamal Hossain, deputy secretary (director, traffic); Md Mahfuzur Rahman, deputy chief finance and accounting officer; Md Fazle Alam, chief audit officer; Lt Col Md Arif Billah, chief engineer (mechanical and electrical); and Mohammad Arif Chowdhury, head of cash management at EBL’s transaction banking division, were also present at the event.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has cut Bangladesh’s economic growth further to 4 percent for the current fiscal year 2025–26 from its previous projection of 4.7 percent amid a fuel price spike and disruption in global supply chains due to the war in the Middle East.

The ADB said the economy might pick up and grow by 4.7 percent in the next fiscal year 2026–27, according to the latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026 released today.

This is the third time the ADB has revised down its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for Bangladesh.

The Manila-based lender in December forecast 4.7 percent GDP growth in the current fiscal year, down from its September forecast of 5 percent. In April last year, the ADB had projected 5.1 percent growth for the same year.

The current growth outlook reflects a recovery in consumption and investment as political uncertainty eases after the general election. Temporary supply chain disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East affected activity in the last quarter, but their impact is expected to fade, the ADB said in a press release.

“Bangladesh is facing a difficult economic environment, shaped by global uncertainties, domestic structural constraints, and pressures on the external and financial sectors,” said ADB Country Director in Bangladesh Hoe Yun Jeong.

Inflation is projected to remain elevated at 9 percent in FY26, despite some easing, reflecting persistently high global energy prices and ongoing supply disruptions. It is expected to moderate to 8.5 percent in FY27 as external shocks subside and domestic supply conditions improve.

“Downside risks to the outlook remain substantial, particularly if the conflict prolongs,” it said.

Disruptions to global energy markets, shipping routes, and supply chains could drive sustained increases in oil and gas prices, intensifying domestic inflationary pressures and complicating ongoing disinflation efforts, thereby constraining macroeconomic policy flexibility, it said.

“Higher energy prices could also widen the fiscal deficit, especially if energy-related subsidies increase or the pass-through to consumers is delayed.”

The ADO report said external sector pressures may rise as exports and remittances soften amid slower economic activity in key Persian Gulf economies, while elevated import costs and freight rates would further strain the current account amid already tight external liquidity.

Overall, the balance of risks is firmly tilted to the downside, underscoring Bangladesh’s vulnerability to external shocks in a context of still-fragile macroeconomic conditions. Climate-related shocks remain an additional, persistent risk.

The ADB said the current account deficit, the record of a country's international transactions with the rest of the world, is anticipated to be 0.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product in FY26, widening slightly to 0.6 percent in FY27, driven by stronger import demand and a broader trade deficit.

The dollar slipped on Friday, putting it on track for its largest weekly drop ​since January, as investors sold safe-haven assets on the assumption that oil shipping will resume if a ceasefire holds in the ‌Gulf.

The dollar had towered in March as one of the few bastions of safety as the Iran war sent oil prices surging and hit stocks and gold, while inflation worries pressured bonds.

But since a fragile ceasefire was reached on Tuesday, those positions are being unwound.

The euro has rallied 1.8 percent this week to trade at $1.173, while sterling ​has gained 2 percent since Monday to $1.347.

The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars are set for weekly rises of nearly 3 percent on ​the dollar, with the Aussie trading just above 70 cents.

MARKETS ARE OPTIMISTIC EVEN THOUGH CEASEFIRE IS FRAGILE

“The market still seems generally optimistic, despite some of the ceasefire fraying,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

Data on Friday showed ​that US consumer prices rose by the most in nearly four years in March as the Iran war boosted oil prices and the pass-through from tariffs ​persisted.

The increase was largely in line with expectations and the markets’ direction is more likely to hinge on the outcome of weekend peace talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad, analysts said.

“People were buying the US dollar when the war was at its most intense moment and now they’re selling as the tail risk ​of a really bad outcome has faded quite a bit,” said Jason Wong, senior strategist at BNZ in Wellington.

“Even though it still looks ​a bit shaky, the ceasefire removing that tail risk is important from a sentiment point of view,” he said, adding that the mood could turn very quickly ‌if the ⁠anticipated weekend peace talks fail to deliver progress.

Asia’s biggest liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) importers, including India and China, are racing to replace disrupted Middle East supplies with cargoes from the ​Americas, driving spot premiums to record highs, analysts and traders said.

LPG exports from the Middle East, Asia’s top supplier of the ‌fuel used for cooking and feedstock for petrochemical plants, have plunged since the US-Israeli war with Iran started in late February.

The supply shock is squeezing Asian petrochemical producers’ margins, forcing them to cut output, and raising costs for millions of Asian households, analysts and traders said. India and China are the biggest importers of LPG from the Middle East.

Middle Eastern ​LPG exports tumbled 73 percent to 419,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March from the previous month, data from analytics firm Kpler showed,

The supply shock ​drove spot premiums for propane and butane loading in April from the Gulf to record highs of $250 per metric ton to March Saudi contract price swaps on March 30, according to pricing agency Argus.

Saudi Aramco sharply raised its April official selling prices amid the supply crunch. The ​April propane price rose by $205 per ton to $750, while butane increased by $260 per ton to $800.

“Key importers such as India are actively diversifying their sourcing strategies, increasing ​procurement from the United States, Norway, Canada, and other regions alongside remaining Gulf supplies,” said Vasudev Balagopal, global head of petrochemical trading at financial services platform Marex.

ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY

To meet Asia’s shortfall, US LPG exports are expected to surge to a record 2.7 million bpd in April, with about 1.8 million bpd headed to Asia, 14 percent higher than March, preliminary Kpler ​data showed. That drove US Gulf spot terminal fees for propane and butane to a record $273.525 and $240.09 per ton, respectively, on March 19, Argus data ​showed.

“We saw some additional propane still being offered to Asia for May arrivals,” said Marex’s Vasudev.

However, Greg Bower, a broker at New Stone, said the US cannot replace the ‌Middle East fully, adding that export terminals were already operating close to capacity before the conflict.

According to US Energy Information Administration data, the country had 48.4 million barrels of ready-for-sale propane as of March 27.

Moreover, transit times from the US Gulf Coast to Asia take more than 30 days, significantly longer than a two-week voyage from the Middle East, traders said, adding to supply strains amid uncertainty over when Iran will allow the strategic Strait of Hormuz to reopen as part of a fragile ​ceasefire deal.

Last year, the Middle East ​accounted for about 48 percent of total Asian LPG imports at 1.54 million bpd, while the US sent about 39 percent or 1.26 million bpd, Kpler data showed.

LOSS IN DEMAND

Insufficient LPG supply led to demand destruction in March, analysts said.

Consultancy Rystad Energy estimated LPG demand loss from ​regional steam crackers at about 135,000 barrels per day in March from February levels, with a further 35,000 ​bpd decline expected in April and 11,000 bpd in May.

In China, propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants, already operating at around 60 percent to 65 percent before the conflict because of poor margins, are expected to trim runs by a further five percentage points in April due to feedstock shortages, according to Rystad. Such plants product propylene, a key building block for plastics and other chemicals.

For ​cooking gas, India’s demand dropped around 205,000 bpd in March.

“The supply situation in India is ​gradually improving but shortages persist even as long-haul cargoes arrive in India from as far as Argentina and the US,” Rystad analyst Manish Sejwal said.

Rystad expects Indian LPG demand to recover from April, ​with losses narrowing by about 70,000 bpd.

Wall Street stocks rose sharply over the week and oil prices fell as a fragile truce was struck between the United States and Iran, with ceasefire talks due to start in Islamabad on Saturday.

For the week, all three major US indices advanced by more than three percent. Oil prices retreated once again on Friday. For the week, they tumbled by approximately 13 percent.

The New York Stock Exchange closed mixed for the day Friday -- the Dow Jones shed 0.6 percent, the Nasdaq gained 0.4 percent, and the broader S&P 500 index was flat, slipping 0.1 percent.

"Markets are trading on a cautious tone ahead of the US-Iran ceasefire talks," Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) said in a note.

"For financial markets, the key issue is whether peak shipping security fear is now behind us."

Official sources say the talks in Islamabad will cover Iran's nuclear enrichment and the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Since the ceasefire took effect, US President Donald Trump has voiced displeasure at Iran's handling of the strategic strait, which was meant to be reopened.

"The key issue for the oil market is whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will resume," Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank said in a note. "So far, there are no signs of this happening."

Inflation in the United States rose sharply in March, government data showed Friday, as higher energy prices due to the war hit Americans hard. Prices rose 3.3 percent from a year earlier.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai responded by saying the US economy "remains on a solid trajectory."

In Europe, London and Frankfurt closed virtually flat as Paris added 0.2 percent.

Shahjalal Islami Bank has reported a sharp rise in profitability for 2025, driven by strong growth in investment income and improved operational performance, while announcing a higher cash dividend for its shareholders.

According to the bank's latest price sensitive disclosure, its consolidated net profit surged 118% year-on-year to Tk368 crore in 2025, up from Tk169 crore in the previous year.

The robust earnings performance lifted consolidated earnings per share (EPS) to Tk3.31, compared with Tk1.52 a year earlier.

The bank also reported improved financial strength, with consolidated net asset value per share rising to Tk23.07 from Tk21.09 in 2024. Meanwhile, consolidated net operating cash flow per share increased to Tk12.28 from Tk8.03, reflecting stronger cash generation from core operations.

On the back of this improved performance, the board of directors recommended a 13% cash dividend for the year, up from 10% cash dividend declared in 2024. The decision was taken at a board meeting held today (8 April).

The bank attributed the strong profit growth mainly to higher net investment income, increased earnings from shares and securities, and a rise in other operating income. Improved cash flow was supported by higher investment income and increased placements with banks and financial institutions.

To approve the audited financial statements and dividend, the bank has scheduled its annual general meeting for 24 May, with the record date set for 30 April.

Market analysts view the strong earnings growth and higher dividend as positive signals for investors, particularly at a time when the banking sector is navigating various economic challenges.

The bank's shares responded positively on the Dhaka Stock Exchange, rising 2.29% today to close at Tk17.90.

As of March, sponsor-directors held 43.08% of the bank's shares, while institutional investors owned 24.25%. General investors accounted for the remaining 32.67%, indicating a balanced ownership structure.

Bangladesh’s national flag carrier, MV Banglar Joyjatra, sailed towards the Strait of Hormuz this noon—after being stranded in the Persian Gulf for 39 days—aiming to cross the route during the two-week ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran.

Bangladesh Shipping Corporation (BSC) Managing Director Commodore Mahmudul Malek confirmed the development at a press conference in Chattogram today.

A total of 31 Bangladeshi crew members are on board the vessel, which had been stranded in the Persian Gulf since the war began on February 28.

Malek said the ship went to Saudi port Ras Al-Khair three days ago and, after loading fertiliser, remained anchored at the outer anchorage of Dammam Port.

As Iran announced it would guarantee safe passage for maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks following the ceasefire, the vessel left the anchorage and is now heading towards the Strait, he said.

The ship will first reach a safe location and will cross the Strait once BSC gives further instructions after monitoring the situation, Malek added.

The vessel is carrying 37,000 tonnes of fertiliser.

When contacted via WhatsApp, the ship’s chief engineer, Rashedul Hasan, told The Daily Star that they lifted anchor around 9:00am local time (12:00pm Bangladesh time) after receiving instructions from BSC.

“We are now heading towards the Strait of Hormuz at a speed of 12 nautical miles per hour,” he said.

The chief engineer added that the vessel is about 420 nautical miles away from the Strait and, at the current speed, it will take around 40 hours to reach and cross it.

The BSC managing director said the ship’s charterer has initially set three possible destinations: South Africa, Mozambique, and Brazil. Once the destination is finalised, the vessel will proceed accordingly, he said.

The bulk carrier arrived at the United Arab Emirates port of Jebel Ali on February 27 from Mesaieed, Qatar, carrying 38,800 tonnes of steel coils before becoming stranded.