Bangladesh is scrambling to secure urea imports after an international tender floated last month failed to attract any bidders, with the Aman paddy, the country’s second-largest rice crop, due for planting in June.

Authorities met Russian representatives yesterday to explore a government-to-government deal. At the same time, Dhaka is approaching nearby producers such as Brunei, as well as more distant and less conventional suppliers, including Latvia and Ukraine.

The government has also asked Saudi Arabia, a regular supplier, to consider alternative shipping routes.

Since the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz -- a key artery for global fertiliser trade -- remains closed. It disrupts flows, accounting for roughly 30 percent of global fertiliser shipments.

Requesting anonymity, a senior official at the state-run Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC), said they are currently in discussions with Russia, Latvia, Brunei, and Ukraine to secure imports.

“We are looking to get the fertiliser from these countries as they can ship using routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.

After a meeting with Russian representatives yesterday, he said Moscow is expected to submit a formal proposal soon.

The urgency follows the shutdown of five of the country’s six urea factories because of gas supply concerns after the US-Israel war on Iran. The conflict has reverberated across the Middle East, a crucial hub for fertiliser exports and for natural gas used in domestic production.

Bangladesh needs more than 26 lakh tonnes of urea each year. About three-quarters of demand is met through imports, as local plants often operate below capacity when gas is diverted to other sectors.

Current stocks stand at around 300,000 tonnes, enough to meet demand until June. BCIC previously said it was working to build reserves to cover requirements in the second half of the year.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are Bangladesh’s main suppliers, providing nearly 10 lakh tonnes annually. Since the war broke out, major producers in Qatar and Saudi Arabia declared force majeure and temporarily halted production.

In response to the US-Israel attack, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has compounded supply disruptions, pushing up the cost of fertiliser and the natural gas used to produce it.

According to the World Bank’s latest commodity price data, urea prices have jumped by more than 50 percent compared with levels before the war began on February 28. The average price rose to $725.6 a tonne in March from $472 earlier.

Prices of other fertilisers, including diammonium phosphate (DAP) and triple superphosphate (TSP), have also surged.

In March, as prices climbed and the planting season drew closer, BCIC floated a tender to import 200,000 tonnes of urea. As it failed to attract any offers, a second tender is now underway with the closing deadline on Thursday this week.

Contacted, BCIC Chairman Md Fazlur Rahman said Saudi Arabia has agreed to supply 40,000 tonnes, but the shipment has yet to arrive because of the disruption in Hormuz.

“So, we have requested them to see whether the fertiliser could be shipped via alternative ports that would avoid the Strait of Hormuz and ensure delivery to Bangladesh,” he said.

Rahman said prices rose to $785-$786 a tonne last week and have climbed above $800 this week.

He said that higher prices would swell the subsidy bill, as the government provides urea and other key fertilisers such as DAP and TSP to farmers to ensure food production.

The government has set aside Tk 17,000 crore for fertiliser subsidies in the current fiscal year. Officials expect that figure to exceed Tk 30,000 crore next year if prices remain elevated.

Rahman said efforts are underway to restart factories closed because of gas shortages. “At present, the situation is quite complex and uncertain. We are making every possible effort to overcome this crisis.”

A blog published last week by the International Food Policy Research Institute said that rice production in countries, including Bangladesh, could suffer if fertiliser supplies remain disrupted.

“Rice is fertiliser-intensive and concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, regions heavily dependent on Gulf urea imports. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and much of Southeast Asia source a significant share of their nitrogen fertiliser from Gulf producers,” the authors wrote.

“If higher fertiliser costs persist into the second half of 2026 and coincide with an El Niño event, rice-producing regions could face both rising input costs and less favourable growing conditions at the same time,” it mentioned.

The newly elected BNP government is preparing a large expansionary budget in its first fiscal plan, aimed at meeting public expectations, accelerating development activities to create jobs, and restoring the economy to a higher growth trajectory through increased investment.

For the fiscal 2026-27, the government is planning to spend Tk9.30 lakh crore – up by 25% from the current fiscal year's budget, while the finance ministry is expected to set a revenue collection target of Tk6.95 lakh crore, according to budget documents drafted by the finance ministry.

If approved, the revenue agency will have to chase a target which is higher by Tk1,00,000 crore than that of the current year, a level economists consider beyond its existing capacity.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is facing a shortfall of nearly Tk72,000 crore against its target in the first eight months of the current year.

To mobilise additional revenue, the NBR may have to reduce tax exemptions across multiple sectors, raise value-added tax rates, and shift tariffs towards more market-based structures.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said budget sizes typically grow by 12% to 15% annually, but the government is planning an increase of more than 25% to fulfil multiple commitments, making revenue mobilisation the central challenge.

"The main problem with the projected budget is the fiscal constraint and how to generate the required funds. How will so much money come? " she said.

She added that achieving such revenue targets with the current capacity of the NBR is unrealistic, and the government should instead set more achievable targets and focus on implementation.

Priorities in budget

The current fiscal year's budget stands at Tk7.90 lakh crore in the original estimate and Tk7.88 lakh crore in the revised version, with the NBR revenue target set at Tk5.03 lakh crore. By the end of February, revenue reached Tk2.50 lakh crore.

According to draft budget documents presented by the finance ministry at a meeting on Friday, the proposed budget prioritises welfare-based initiatives such as Family Card and Farmer's Card, in line with the election manifesto. It also focuses on containing inflation and maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Other key priorities include skills development to promote entrepreneurship and expand domestic and overseas employment, accelerating growth, strengthening agricultural support, expanding healthcare, restoring discipline in the financial sector, and removing investment barriers through deregulation.

The budget also places emphasis on developing the creative economy, including film, music, sports, and rural culture. The government has already initiated recruitment of sports and music teachers in primary schools and introduced incentive schemes for athletes.

Deficit financing

The next budget sets a revenue collection target of Tk6.04 lakh crore, equivalent to 9.21% of GDP. However, the tax-to-GDP ratio has fallen below 7% and continues a long-term decline.

To raise revenue, the government plans digitalisation of tax administration, expansion of the tax base, stronger institutional capacity, and higher non-NBR collections.

The finance ministry has also sharply raised the non-NBR tax target. Against Tk5,786 crore collected in the first eight months of the current fiscal year, the target for next year is Tk25,000 crore.

The fiscal deficit is projected at Tk2.35 lakh crore, or 3.4% of GDP. While the current fiscal year's original budget was smaller than the previous year, its deficit was also set at 3.4% of GDP, higher than the next budget's projection.

The deficit financing plan includes borrowing Tk1.19 lakh crore from banks and savings certificates, and Tk1.16 lakh crore from foreign sources.

In managing the deficit, the government is expected to shift towards lower-interest foreign loans instead of high-cost domestic borrowing. A significant share of annual budget expenditure on interest payments goes to domestic bank loans and savings instruments.

The finance ministry has projected Tk1.27 lakh crore for interest payments, of which Tk1.05 lakh crore is allocated for domestic debt interest and Tk22,500 crore for foreign debt interest.

Finance officials said, if energy prices rise, inflation does not ease, or liquidity recovery in the financial sector is delayed, the government may face higher interest payment pressures on domestic borrowing.

The IMF generally considers a deficit within 5% of GDP manageable. The government is, however, aiming for tighter fiscal discipline. Still, shortfalls in revenue could force additional borrowing.

The Annual Development Programme (ADP) allocation is set to rise by 50% from the current revised budget to Tk3 lakh crore, which officials expect will boost public investment and employment.

Finance officials said project public investment will reach 6.5% of GDP next fiscal year, arguing that each taka of government spending can attract multiple times more private investment. Private investment is therefore expected to rise to 24.9% of GDP.

Subsidy pressure to grow

Despite the large overall budget, subsidy allocations have not been fully adjusted for rising fuel import costs amid instability in the Middle East.

Allocations include Tk37,000 crore for power, Tk6,500 crore for LNG imports, Tk27,000 crore for fertiliser, and Tk9,600 crore for food assistance, taking total subsidies, incentives and cash support to Tk116,125 crore, up from Tk112,455 crore in the revised budget of the current fiscal year.

The finance minister told Parliament that the Iran conflict alone added Tk36,000 crore in subsidy pressure between March and June due to higher global fuel prices. Budget documents warn that prolonged instability could further increase funding needs for gas, electricity and fertiliser subsidies.

Additional funding pressures may arise from the BNP government's election pledges, including family and farmer cards. The government has begun paying Tk2,500 monthly to low-income households under these schemes, alongside Tk9,600 crore for broader social protection programmes.

In the current fiscal year, this allocation was Tk9,663 crore in the original budget and Tk10,214 crore in the revised budget.

In the next fiscal year, allocations for agricultural incentives, export cash support and jute exports remain unchanged, while remittance-linked incentives rise by Tk800 crore to Tk7,000 crore.

ADP allocations also show a sharp increase in health spending to Tk20,608 crore, about six times the revised level, lifting the sector from 15th to third position.

The largest development allocations go to the Local Government Division and Roads and Highways Division, followed by power, primary education, and secondary and higher education.

Brazil and the United States have become two key suppliers of corn to Bangladesh’s growing feed industry, as imports from India -- the traditional source -- have declined, according to a recent report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Bangladesh imported nearly 15 lakh tonnes of corn, also known as maize, in the first 10 months of the marketing year 2025-26 (MY26). Of this, 78 percent came from Brazil, while the remaining 22 percent was supplied by the US and India, with each accounting for 11 percent, the report on Bangladesh’s grain and feed sector, published last week, said.

The report said lower global maize prices encouraged traders and feed producers to import and stockpile large volumes. Bangladesh needs about 70 lakh tonnes of maize annually and imports around 15 lakh tonnes to cover gaps in local production.

“Growth in the poultry, dairy, and aquaculture sectors has increased demand for corn as a key feed ingredient,” the US agency said.

India has traditionally been a major supplier of corn to Bangladesh due to competitive prices, efficient logistics and shorter shipping times. However, since 2024, India’s exportable corn surplus has fallen sharply as it expanded corn-based biofuel production. As a result, Brazil has become the leading supplier for Bangladesh.

The report added that Bangladesh imported maize from the US in MY26 for the first time since 2018, after three local feed companies began purchases. This followed an agreement for Bangladesh to increase imports of US agricultural goods under a reciprocal trade deal aimed at reducing a trade deficit of more than $6.2 billion.

Under the deal, the US imposed a 19 percent reciprocal tariff on Bangladesh’s exports, on the condition that Dhaka would increase imports of US goods. The agreement covers wheat, soybeans and soy products, as well as cotton, with a total estimated value of $3.5 billion.

Total maize shipments from the US to Bangladesh reached about 160,000 tonnes in MY26, the USDA said.

The USDA projects that Bangladesh’s maize imports could reach 18 lakh tonnes, which is 27.2 percent higher than its estimate for MY25. However, it has lowered its forecast for MY27 to 17 lakh tonnes due to higher domestic production and larger beginning stocks.

Farmers are expected to harvest about 59 lakh tonnes of maize in MY27, up 1.7 percent from the previous year.

The report added that maize cultivation has expanded in recent years as farmers receive better prices due to strong demand from the local feed industry.

Farmers are prioritising corn because returns are about three times higher than production costs, while input costs are lower than for boro rice and vegetables grown in the same season.

Banks will be borrowing and lending among themselves for the short-term, using a new transaction-based reference rate from Wednesday.

At a press conference at its headquarters in Dhaka yesterday, the Bangladesh Bank (BB) announced the shift away from the long-standing practice of relying on quoted rates under the Dhaka Interbank Offered Rate (DIBOR).

Instead of simply using the rates banks said they would charge, the new framework draws on actual transactions to determine borrowing costs.

The new system is meant for improving transparency and efficiency in the money market. It also brings Bangladesh into line with global benchmarks such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), published daily by the New York Fed and widely used in international markets.

Similarly, the BB will publish the new reference rates regularly on its website from Wednesday.

DIBOR, introduced in 2010, was based on rates banks reported for lending to one another. Over time, however, the system showed its weaknesses. Many commercial lenders did not provide data consistently, meaning the rate often failed to reflect real market conditions.

Under the new automated system, the BB will rely on actual interbank transactions and two new benchmark rates -- the Bangladesh Overnight Financing Rate (BOFR), and the Dhaka Overnight Money Market Rate (DOMMR).

BOFR is a secured, or risk-free, rate derived from interbank repo transactions. In a repo deal, one bank sells government securities to another with an agreement to buy them back later at a slightly higher price. The securities act as collateral, reducing the risk for the lender.

DOMMR, by contrast, is based on unsecured call money transactions. In this market, banks lend to one another for very short periods without providing collateral, relying instead on mutual trust and liquidity needs.

BOFR will be available for overnight and one-week tenors. DOMMR will cover overnight, one-week, one-month and three-month tenors.

According to the central bank, these rates will be calculated using a volume-weighted mean method so that larger transactions carry greater weight in the final figure.

This means if one bank borrows Tk 100 crore and another borrows Tk 5 crore, the larger deal will have a proportionately bigger influence on the average rate.

To prevent unusual deals from skewing the outcome, the BB will apply statistical techniques to filter out outliers.

For example, an exceptionally high lending rate on a single transaction would not be allowed to distort the benchmark. Similarly, if trading is thin on a particular day, the calculation will draw on data from recent working days to ensure stability.

The central bank expects the new framework to provide a dependable benchmark for pricing loans, bonds and floating rate instruments, and to support the development of new investment products.

Officials said the rates have been tested on a trial basis since March. They added that the system will be refined through regular monitoring and annual reviews.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has sought information from the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) to evaluate its request for extending the deadline for complying with new margin rules by three months.

In a letter sent to the regulator last week, DBA asked to extend the deadline for complying with the requirements set out in the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Margin) Rules 2025. In response, BSEC, in a letter issued on Sunday (April 12), sought information from the brokers’ association.

The rules came into force on November 1 last year, and are designed to strengthen risk management, protect investors and boost market stability. Three key provisions must be implemented within six months, with the current deadline set for April 30.

DBA’s letter said that brokerage houses need time for internal consultations, risk assessments, board approvals and integration of the new requirements into their operational systems.

The brokers’ association added that many firms are still finalising their policies and implementation plans due to a shortage of skilled personnel required under the rules, as well as limited technical support and client feedback.

Responding to the letter, BSEC asked for data so that the regulator can make a concrete decision regarding DBA’s proposal to extend the deadline.

BSEC asked how many brokers have already completed finalising the conservative policy of following the margin rules, and how many brokers have formed a risk management committee.

It sought information on companies that have not aligned with the risk-based capital adequacy rules of 2019, and also on brokers that have not applied for a time extension of provisioning of unrealised losses.

Additionally, the regulator asked for information on which brokerage houses hold non-marginable securities, and the cost value and market value of those securities.

BSEC gave the DBA three working days to submit the abovementioned information.

The year 2025 will be remembered as a period of significant contraction for dividend-seeking investors in Bangladesh's capital market, as multinational companies faced an unprecedented squeeze on profitability.

Historically regarded as the bedrock of the Dhaka and Chattogram bourses for their consistent and generous payouts, these global giants saw their collective dividend distributions plummet by 46% compared with the previous year.

Currently, out of the 13 multinational companies listed on the two stock exchanges, the status of dividend declarations remains mixed. While eight have already announced their payouts for the year, others are at various stages of their financial cycles.

Bata Shoes and Marico Bangladesh have declared interim dividends but are yet to finalise their year-end figures. Meanwhile, firms such as Berger Paints and Marico follow a financial year that ends in March, meaning their full annual performance will not be clear for several more months. Heidelberg Materials also yet to declare its stance for 2025.

Data from ten major multinational entities show they declared a total of Tk5,070 crore in dividends for the 2025 financial year, a sharp retreat from the Tk9,411 crore in 2024.

This massive shortfall of Tk4,341 crore reflects a broader story of operational challenges, ranging from inflationary pressures and site relocations to historic losses and shifting macroeconomic conditions.

Downturn driven by heavyweights

The downturn in payouts was driven largely by the market's heavyweights, with British American Tobacco (BAT) Bangladesh and Grameenphone recording the most substantial declines.

BAT Bangladesh, a long-term favourite for income investors, saw its cash dividend drop from 300% in 2024 to just 30% in 2025. In monetary terms, this represented a collapse from Tk1,620 crore to Tk162 crore.

According to the company's price-sensitive disclosure, its net profit for the year ending December 2025 decreased by 67%, primarily due to a Tk715 crore one-off impact caused by the forced closure of its Dhaka factory and the subsequent relocation of machinery to Savar. This restructuring, combined with rising operating expenses and a decline in turnover, forced the tobacco giant to adopt a much more conservative stance on profit distribution.

Similarly, the telecommunications leader Grameenphone declared a 215% cash dividend for 2025, which, while substantial in the context of the broader market, was significantly lower than the 330% payout offered in 2024.

The company's total dividend amount fell from Tk4,456 crore to Tk2,903 crore as its net profit dipped to Tk2,958 crore from the previous year's Tk3,630 crore. The telecom sector, which is highly sensitive to consumers' purchasing power, felt the weight of persistent high inflation throughout the year, leading to a more cautious approach to cash preservation.

Perhaps the most startling development of the year came from Singer Bangladesh. For the first time in its listed history, the electronics giant failed to recommend any dividend.

The company suffered a loss of Tk225 crore in 2025, a sharp deterioration from a loss of Tk48.93 crore in 2024. The depth of the financial crisis at Singer led to negative retained earnings of Tk150 crore, making a dividend payout legally and financially impossible.

Industry insiders pointed to the double blow of a depreciating currency and a slowdown in consumer demand for durable goods as the primary drivers of this historic outcome.

Linde Bangladesh also saw a drastic change in its payout profile. While it had declared a record-breaking 4,500% cash dividend in 2024 – fuelled by the disposal of assets and special capital gains – it returned to a more standard 100% cash dividend in 2025. Consequently, the total amount disbursed by the industrial gas provider fell from Tk684 crore to just Tk15 crore.

Other firms such as Unilever Consumer Care and Marico Bangladesh also trimmed their payouts, with Marico's interim dividend standing at 1,575% cash compared with a total of 3,840% in the preceding year.

RAK Ceramics, grappling with a loss of nearly Tk40 crore, limited its 10% cash dividend to general shareholders only, reflecting the immense pressure on the construction and real estate supply chain.

Against the trend

Despite the prevailing gloom, a few multinationals managed to defy the trend. Robi Axiata reported a significant improvement in its bottom line, with net profit rising to Tk938 crore from Tk702 crore. This allowed the mobile operator to increase its cash dividend to 17.5%, up from 15% in 2024.

LafargeHolcim Bangladesh also showed resilience, raising its cash dividend to 40% from 38% after posting a robust profit of Tk511 crore. These outliers, however, were not enough to offset the massive dividend erosion seen across the rest of the MNC segment.

Market analysts have characterised 2025 as a "year of survival" for most multinationals operating in Bangladesh. The combination of high inflation, unfavourable macroeconomic conditions, and political uncertainty created a hostile environment for business growth.

Many of these firms found themselves struggling with high import costs due to the dollar crisis, while also facing a domestic market where consumers were increasingly forced to cut back on non-essential spending.

The resulting squeeze on margins meant that even profitable firms had to prioritise liquidity and balance sheet strength over rewarding shareholders.

Mobile financial service provider Nagad has consolidated its position as the leading platform for disbursing government allowances—including old-age, widow, and disability benefits—as well as education stipends under the national social safety net programme.

Although the disbursement window is open to all financial institutions, Nagad remains the preferred platform for beneficiaries, according to a press release issued on Monday.

In the January–March quarter of this year, approximately 1.47 crore beneficiaries selected Nagad to receive government allowances and stipends. During this period, total government disbursements through Nagad reached Tk3,049.23 crore across several categories.

Of this total, the largest number of beneficiaries and highest volume of funds were disbursed under the government's social safety net programme. Between January and March, around 1.31 crore beneficiaries received Tk2,878.35 crore through Nagad accounts—Tk300 crore more than in the same period last year.

Nagad also disbursed Tk32.68 crore in education stipends to 4,12,697 primary school students during the quarter.

During the same period, 5,785 students participating in sewing and embroidery training programmes received Tk2.68 crore through Nagad, marking an increase from the corresponding period last year.

In technical education, 1,22,937 students received stipends totalling Tk45.58 crore through Nagad—nearly Tk10 crore more than in the same period a year earlier.

Under the Madrasa Education Directorate, 38,055 students received Tk3.43 crore in stipends via the platform.

Meanwhile, under the Mother and Child Benefit Programme, Nagad disbursed Tk86.50 crore in maternity allowances to 10,11,557 beneficiaries.

The government also distributed funds under the 'Family Card' programme on a pilot basis through Nagad as part of the social safety net during the same period.

Md Samsul Islam, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer of Nagad, stated, "Nagad remains the preferred choice for customers receiving allowances, stipends, and government grants. We are grateful to our customers and the government for their trust. This confidence is a testament to our service quality, and as a result, both the number of beneficiaries and the volume of disbursements through Nagad continue to rise each quarter."

In the 2024–25 fiscal year, the government disbursed Tk9,000 crore in social safety net allowances via Nagad. The amount is expected to increase further in the current fiscal year, according to the press release.

Gold hit a near one-week low on Monday as a stronger dollar and ‌oil’s surge above $100 after the US moved to blockade Iranian ports fuelled inflation concerns, prompting traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Spot gold was down 0.4 percent at $4,730.75 ​per ounce, as of 0735 GMT, after hitting its lowest since April 7 ​earlier in the day at $4,643. US gold futures for June delivery fell 0.7 percent to $4,753.30.

The dollar strengthened 0.3 percent as the US Navy prepared a blockade of ​the Strait of Hormuz that could restrict Iranian oil shipments after peace talks between the US ​and Iran broke down.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded by warning that military vessels approaching the strait will be considered a ceasefire breach and dealt with harshly and decisively.

“Ceasefire optimism has unwound following the failure of ​the peace talks, and the resulting push higher by the dollar and oil ​prices has put gold on the back foot again,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM ‌Trade.

Spot gold ⁠has fallen more than 11 percent since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February. While inflation and geopolitical risks typically boost gold’s appeal as a safe haven, elevated interest rates weigh on the non-yielding metal.

A stronger dollar also makes greenback-priced bullion more expensive for ​holders of other ​currencies.

“As soon as oil ⁠prices push back above $100, attention quickly turns to potential central bank rate hikes to curb inflation, and it is this interest ​rate outlook that is undermining gold’s performance,” Waterer said.

Traders now ​see little ⁠chance of a US rate cut this year, as higher energy prices threaten to feed into broader inflation and limit the scope for monetary easing.

Investors had priced in two Fed ⁠rate cuts ​for 2026 before the start of the war.

Interest payments, subsidies, incentives and cash loans could gobble up big pies of the next budget as the government earmarks over Tk 2.59 trillion on this account and officials predict higher energy costs could bloat the figure.

The sum is roughly 27.86 per cent of the national budget worth Tk 9.3 trillion for fiscal year 206-27, officials at the finance division say.Personal Finance Software

The amount is 7.99-percent higher than the Tk 2.39-trillion revised allocation in the current fiscal year.

They say subsidy allocations have not been estimated taking into account a potential doubling of fuel-import costs amid the ongoing volatility and caution that if the Gulf conflict persists, additional funding will be required for gas, power and fertiliser subsidies.

Finance Ministry officials also warn that government's interest burden on domestic borrowing could rise further if inflation does not ease and liquidity in the financial sector takes longer to recover.

Further fiscal pressure may arise if the BNP government proceeds with its election pledges to implement "family card" and "farmer card", which would require additional allocations, they note.

The projections emerged at a meeting of the Coordination Council on Fiscal, Monetary and Exchange Rate Affairs held last Friday with Finance Minister Ameer Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury in the chair.

According to documents presented at the meeting, the budget deficit for the next fiscal year has been estimated at Tk 2.35 trillion, or 3.4 per cent of GDP, taking into account the heavy burden of subsidies, incentives and debt obligations. In the revised budget for the current fiscal year, the deficit was set at 3.3 per cent of GDP, amounting to Tk 2.0 trillion.

To finance the deficit, the government plans to borrow Tk 1.19 trillion from domestic sources like banks and savings instruments, while Tk 1.16 trillion from foreign sources, an overall increase of Tk 350 billion, or 17.5 per cent, compared to the current fiscal year.

External borrowing alone is set to surge by over 84 per cent, according to the documents.

Officials note that the government is increasingly leaning towards external borrowing to ease pressure from high-cost domestic debt, as a significant share of interest payments is tied to bank loans and savings certificates.

Interest payments alone are estimated at Tk 1.42 trillion in the next budget, including Tk 1.15 trillion for domestic debt and Tk 270 billion for foreign loans.

However, officials caution that interest expenses could rise further if inflation persists, fuel prices increase, or liquidity conditions in the banking sector fail to improve.

Subsidy allocations, meanwhile, remain under pressure amid global energy-price volatility. The government has earmarked Tk 370.0 billion for the power sector, Tk 65.0 billion for LNG, Tk 270.0 billion for fertiliser and Tk 96.0 billion for food-support programmes.

Total spending on subsidies, incentives and cash loans is set at Tk 1.17 trillion, up from Tk 1.12 trillion in the revised budget.

Officials note that subsidy needs could increase further if the ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to push up fuel-import costs. The finance minister recently informed parliament that higher global fuel prices had already added Tk 360.0 billion in subsidy pressure during March-June of the current fiscal year.

While allocations for agricultural, export and jute incentives are being kept unchanged, remittance incentives are set to rise by Tk 8.0 billion to Tk 70.0 billion, reflecting stronger inflows.

"Expenditures such as interest payments offer little scope for control," says economist and former Director-General of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Dr Mustafa K. Mujeri, adding that the government has scope of controlling such spending in future.Local Business Directory

He told The Financial Express that subsidy spending, financed by public funds, needs to be rationalised through careful targeting.

He suggests phasing out blanket subsidies and limiting support to sectors that do not directly benefit the poor, warning that failure to do so would raise the debt burden on future generations.

Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir has assured that the government will not impose any additional tax burden on businesses in the upcoming national budget despite mounting fiscal pressures.

Reducing the cost of doing business and easing access to government services are essential to boost private sector investment and trade, he made the remarks while addressing a pre-budget discussion organised by the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) at a hotel in Dhaka today (13 April).

The minister acknowledged that the government is under significant financial strain due to what he described as "over-ambitious projects" undertaken by the previous administration.

He noted that although Bangladesh's economy is valued at around $460 billion, nearly 70 million people remain below the poverty line, while the number of taxpayers is still relatively low.

Muktadir also pointed to the country's limited energy storage capacity, which forces reliance on higher-cost fuel imports from the spot market amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Emphasising the need for expansion of the tax net, DCCI President Taskeen Ahmed said sustaining economic growth would require automation and simplification of revenue collection systems.

He proposed raising the tax-free income threshold to Tk5 lakh, capping the maximum personal income tax rate at 25%, aligning the tax rates of non-listed companies with those of listed ones and abolishing the advance VAT system.

The business leader also called for modernisation of financial sector policies to ensure stability, reduction of non-performing loans, stabilisation of foreign exchange reserves, and rationalisation of policy interest rates to encourage manufacturing investment.

He highlighted the need for uninterrupted energy supply, diversification of export products and markets, and targeted incentives for promising sectors in the upcoming budget.

Mahbubur Rahman, president of the International Chamber of Commerce Bangladesh, observed that although calls to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio have persisted for years, there has been limited effective action.

He said that high lending rates, reduced credit flow to the private sector, and ongoing power and energy shortages are discouraging both domestic and foreign investment.

Mahbubur urged the government to explore alternative energy import sources and reduce reliance on intermediaries, while ensuring a stable and predictable policy environment.

Monzur Hossain, member (secretary) of the General Economics Division, emphasised that reviving sluggish economic growth remains a key priority for the government, underscoring the importance of promoting the cottage, micro, small, and medium enterprises sector and strengthening research activities to expand investment.

Former DCCI President Rizwan Rahman highlighted that bureaucratic complexities and alleged harassment from the tax authority are severely affecting the private sector.

He noted that the lack of effective initiatives to expand the tax net is increasing pressure on existing taxpayers and called for grassroots-level investment incentives along with higher allocations for healthcare and education.

Another former DCCI President Hossain Khaled said that only about 30% of transactions occur through formal channels, limiting effective revenue collection, and suggested that the current VAT system could be replaced with a GST framework.

KM Rezaul Hasanat David, president of the Bangladesh Independent Power Producers' Association, said expressed concern over delays in establishing a land-based LNG terminal and stressed the importance of expanding energy storage capacity and attracting joint and foreign investment.

Chief Economist of Bangladesh Bank Akhand Mohammad Akhtar Hossain emphasised the need to increase foreign investment, ensure accountability in government service delivery, and control inflation.

Participants across the four thematic sessions on income tax and VAT, financial sector, industry and trade, and infrastructure emphasised the need for comprehensive reforms, including automation of the revenue system, realistic tax collection targets, uninterrupted energy supply, improved infrastructure, stable exchange rates, lower lending rates, and stronger governance in the financial sector.

DCCI members, economists, researchers, and representatives from both public and private sectors also attended the event.

The Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) has proposed raising the individual tax-free income threshold to Tk5 lakh and capping the maximum personal income tax rate at 25% as part of its recommendations for the national budget for fiscal year 2026–27.

The proposals were presented today (13 April) at a pre-budget consultation titled "Budget 2026–27: Private Sector Expectations," held at InterContinental Dhaka, with participation from policymakers, economists and business leaders.

Tax reforms and compliance measures

DCCI recommended setting the corporate tax rate for non-listed companies at 25%, aligning it with listed firms to ensure parity and encourage formalisation.

To improve compliance and transparency, the chamber proposed introducing a fully automated corporate tax return system.

It also suggested integrating the e-TDS platform with the National Board of Revenue (NBR) system to accelerate processing and enhance verification efficiency.

Additionally, DCCI called for the gradual withdrawal of advance tax at the import stage for manufacturers and a reduction for commercial importers.

VAT system overhaul

In the value-added tax (VAT) regime, the chamber proposed abolishing advance VAT and introducing a mobile application to complement the existing online system.

It also recommended implementing a single-step refund mechanism to expedite VAT reimbursements and reduce administrative delays.

Boosting private investment

To stimulate private sector investment, DCCI urged the rationalisation of interest rates and reducing government reliance on domestic bank borrowing.

The chamber also emphasised expanding access to credit through refinancing schemes and credit guarantee programmes to support businesses, particularly SMEs.

Capital market development

DCCI called for strengthening the capital market by increasing initial public offerings (IPOs) and encouraging large corporations and small and medium enterprises to go public.

It also proposed introducing long-term financing instruments such as bonds to diversify funding sources.

Sectoral support ahead of LDC graduation

Highlighting the importance of Bangladesh's upcoming graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status, DCCI urged targeted policy support for key sectors, including leather, pharmaceuticals, ICT, electronics and light engineering.

The chamber further recommended budget allocations for emerging sectors such as semiconductor research and artificial intelligence, along with the establishment of specialised industrial zones.

Infrastructure and investment incentives

To accelerate infrastructure development, DCCI proposed tax incentives, including exemptions on high-cost construction materials and machinery.

It also suggested introducing infrastructure bonds and sukuk to attract long-term investment.

Energy, governance and sustainability

DCCI stressed the importance of stable energy pricing through long-term import agreements and improved project management through real-time monitoring systems.

It recommended prioritising the completion of ongoing projects over launching new mega projects to ensure efficient resource utilisation.

The chamber also called for establishing secure data centres for the service sector and allocating budgetary support for environmental, social and governance (ESG) compliance to enhance global competitiveness.

Bangladesh is entering a period of intense fiscal pressure, with external debt servicing set to surge sharply over the next five years, exposing the limits of its already weak revenue base.

According to an Economic Relations Division (ERD) report, the country will need to pay nearly $26 billion in external debt servicing between the current fiscal year and FY30.

The scale of the burden is clearer in historical context.

In the 54 years since independence in 1971, Bangladesh has paid around $40 billion in debt servicing. Now, nearly two-thirds of that amount will be repaid within just five years.

This comes as the tax-to-GDP ratio has slipped below 7%, the lowest among peer economies, constraining the government's ability to absorb shocks or expand spending.

At the same time, a series of external shocks – including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, domestic political instability, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East – have strained revenue collection, export earnings and remittance flows, further complicating debt servicing pressures.

Total external debt stood at $77.28 billion as of 30 June 2025, up from $68.82 billion a year earlier, according to another ERD report.

Bangladesh paid about $4 billion in the previous fiscal year, which is expected to rise to $4.74 billion in the current year, $4.87 billion in FY27 – peaking at $5.5 billion in FY30.

Economists say the rising obligation will strain public finances at a time of elevated global energy prices. They warn that within five to 10 years, as repayments on new loans begin, the situation could become more complex.

They say avoiding a foreign debt trap requires an urgent push to expand exports, develop skilled manpower, boost remittances, improve investment climate and strengthen revenue.

Why debt pressure is rising

The latest ERD report was prepared ahead of the finance minister's Washington meetings. The finance minister and governor are now in the United States, seeking fresh budget support from the World Bank and the release of IMF loan tranches to ease fiscal stress.

The report estimates are based on external loans contracted up to FY25. Borrowing in the current fiscal year has not been included.

Officials said Bangladesh has financed a series of mega projects through external borrowing, including the $11.3 billion Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, Padma Rail Link, Karnaphuli Tunnel, Dhaka Metro Rail, Single Point Mooring with Double Pipeline, Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport expansion and the Jamuna Railway Bridge.

Many of these projects have either completed or are nearing the end of their grace periods, triggering principal repayments and steadily increasing debt servicing pressure.

Principal repayments for the Rooppur plant are set to begin in 2028, with annual payments exceeding $500 million. Budget support loans taken during the post-Covid period are also entering repayment phases, further adding to pressure.

Officials also cited implementation delays as a major concern. Delays have slowed the realisation of economic returns, while some completed projects remain idle due to operational bottlenecks.

For instance, electricity generation from Rooppur was expected two years earlier but has been delayed. The Single Point Mooring project, completed in 2024 with $467.84 million in Chinese financing, has yet to begin operations. The Dhaka airport expansion, financed with nearly $2 billion from Japan, also remains idle due to delays in appointing an operator.

Burden peaks in FY30

The report shows Bangladesh will need to repay $25.99 billion over FY26-FY30, including the current fiscal year. Of this, $18.38 billion is principal and $7.6 billion interest. This burden will nearly double to $51.33 billion between FY26 and FY35.

FY30 is projected as the peak repayment year, when Bangladesh will need to service about $5.5 billion based on the debt stock as of June 2025.

The report notes that, based on average monthly remittances of about $2.03 billion during FY21-FY25, less than three months of inflows would be sufficient to cover annual external debt obligations even at the peak.

Existing debt needs 37 years to clear

Based on borrowings up to June of the last fiscal year, Bangladesh would need 37 years to fully repay its existing external debt stock, according to the ERD.

If no new loans are added, the current stock would be cleared by FY63, meaning today's liabilities will continue to be serviced over the long term.

Net external borrowing in FY25 was $5.83 billion, with officials estimating annual increases in debt stock of roughly $8-9 billion.

Debt ratios under pressure

According to the latest Flow of External Resources into Bangladesh report by the ERD, the debt-to-GDP ratio, though still low by global standards, is gradually rising.

It reached 18.99% at the end of FY25, up from 17.03% a year earlier, against a 40% benchmark. The debt-to-revenue ratio also edged higher, climbing to 16.92% from 16.53% over the same period, nearing the IMF's threshold of 18%.

The ERD warned that without stronger revenue growth, Bangladesh could lose its current "comfortable position" in servicing external debt.

Other indicators offer a mixed outlook. The debt-to-exports of goods and services plus remittances ratio improved modestly, falling to 105.87% from 110.09% a year earlier, remaining well below the IMF's 180% threshold.

'Exports, remittances must keep pace'

Terming the situation an "unavoidable reality" for Bangladesh, Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said, "If export earnings and remittances fail to keep pace, the economy could slip into distress."

World Bank and IMF analyses show the shift from "low" to "moderate" debt risk is driven less by GDP and more by worsening debt-to-revenue and debt-to-export ratios.

He warned that weak revenue mobilisation and foreign exchange pressures are already staring the economy. "Without improvement, moderate risk could escalate into high risk."

He called for stricter "sanity checks" in selecting loan-funded projects, especially in energy, where investments could ease gas shortages, raise industrial output and support exports.

Loan decisions, he said, must focus on repayment capacity through future exports and fiscal space, not just loan size.

Bangladesh has not defaulted so far, he noted, but warned the buffer may not hold amid global slowdown, LDC graduation pressures and geopolitical shocks. "Debt rescheduling or delays in repayment would carry reputational risks and increase future borrowing costs," he said.

'Capacity-building imperative'

Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director at the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development, said the economy is at a critical juncture, with rising repayments alongside fresh borrowing.

He warned that mismanagement could trigger a crisis, calling for urgent capacity building based on four pillars: export expansion, skilled manpower development, improved investment climate and stronger revenue collection.

He said reliance on the ready-made garments sector alone is insufficient and called for diversification into agro-products, leather goods and light engineering.

Remittances, he added, remain a key lifeline, requiring alignment with global labour market demand and expanded training programmes. He also urged easier and more attractive legal remittance channels.

He said Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio of around 7-8% is a structural weakness. "This narrow revenue base is insufficient to service large-scale debt while sustaining development."

He called for tax system reforms, anti-evasion measures and broader tax coverage.

He added that energy security is a direct enabler of debt repayment capacity. "Uninterrupted gas and power supply is essential to keep industrial production running."

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has unveiled an ambitious vision to transform Bangladesh into a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, even as rising debt and intensifying climate risks threaten to derail progress.

Speaking at the 16th Ministerial Dialogue of the CVF-V20 on April 14, the minister underscored Bangladesh’s position as one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable economies, warning of a tightening fiscal environment driven by recurring disasters and financial strain.

Mr. Chowdhury delivered a stark assessment of the country’s economic trajectory, cautioning that development financing is increasingly constrained by a growing debt burden.

Bangladesh’s debt-to-GDP ratio has climbed sharply – from 26.2 per cent in FY2017 to 36.0 per cent in FY2023 – with further increases expected as repayment obligations rise on large infrastructure projects.

By FY2024, domestic debt is projected to comprise 56 per cent of total liabilities, while external debt will account for 44 per cent, reflecting a shifting financing structure that could heighten internal fiscal pressure.

The fiscal squeeze is already impacting climate-related social protection efforts. Allocations for climate-focused programmes under the Social Safety Net Programme (SSNP) have dropped dramatically to U$592.8 million for FY2025–26, down from U$1.42 billion previously – nearly a two-thirds reduction.Personal Finance Software

To cushion vulnerable populations, the government has introduced targeted initiatives such as “Family Cards” and “Farmers Cards”, aimed at mitigating the combined shocks of climate change and global economic volatility.

Beyond domestic challenges, Bangladesh is grappling with mounting geopolitical and trade pressures.

The World Bank estimates that the ongoing Middle East conflicts could push an additional 1.2 million Bangladeshis into poverty, exacerbating social vulnerabilities.

Meanwhile, the minister criticised unilateral trade measures (UTMs) that bypass global trade norms, arguing that such policies disproportionately affect climate-vulnerable economies like Bangladesh.

In response, Bangladesh has outlined a five-point reform agenda aimed at reshaping international financial support mechanisms.

The points are adoption of a Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI) instead of GNI per capita to determine aid eligibility, large-scale and fast-tracked debt relief mechanisms, expanded risk-hedging tools to attract private climate investment, pre-arranged emergency liquidity facilities for climate disasters and accelerated climate-focused reforms within multilateral development banks.Bangladesh Economic Report

“It is time to translate conference into practice and turn advocacy into action,” Mr. Chowdhury said, urging the global community to step up support.

He also proposed establishing a CVF-V20 Regional Hub in Dhaka, positioning Bangladesh as a leader in climate resilience and policy innovation.

Bangladesh’s trillion-dollar ambition signals confidence in long-term growth, but without urgent fiscal space, climate financing, and global support, the path ahead remains highly challenging.

A high-powered Bangladesh delegation is now staying in Washington D.C. led by the finance minister for joining the Spring Meetings of IMF-WBG.

Finance Secretary Dr Md Khairuzzaman Mozumder, NBR Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan, Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman, Basumati Group Chairman ZM Golam Nabi and senior officials of different ministries and divisions are members of the panel.

The Spring Meetings began on April 13 and will conclude on April 18.

The International Monetary Fund cut its growth outlook on Tuesday due to Iran war-driven energy price spikes and supply disruptions and warned that the global economy would teeter on ​the brink of recession if the conflict worsens and oil stays above $100 per barrel through 2027.

With massive uncertainty over the Middle East conflict gripping finance officials gathering for IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, ‌the IMF presented three growth scenarios: weaker, worse and severe, depending on how the war unfolds.

The World Economic Outlook's most optimistic "reference scenario" assumes a short-lived Iran war and forecasts 3.1% real GDP growth for 2026, down 0.2 percentage point from its previous forecast in January. Under this scenario, oil prices average $82 per barrel for all of 2026, a decline from recent levels of around $100 for the Brent benchmark futures price .

Absent the Middle East conflict, the IMF said it would have upgraded its growth outlook by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%, due to a continued technology investment boom, lower interest rates, less-severe US tariffs and fiscal support ​in some countries.

But the war has created a far bigger risk to the global economy than President Donald Trump's initial wave of steep tariffs did a year ago, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told Reuters in an interview.

"What's happening in ​the Gulf is potentially much, much larger, and that's what our scenarios are kind of documenting," he said.

Under an "adverse scenario" of a longer conflict that keeps oil prices around $100 per barrel this ⁠year and $75 in 2027, the IMF predicts global GDP growth would fall to 2.5% this year. The IMF in January had forecast that oil would decline to about $62 in 2026.

And the IMF's worst-case "severe scenario" assumes an extended and deepening conflict and much higher oil prices that prompt ​major financial market dislocations and tighter financial conditions, slashing global growth to 2.0%.

"This would mean a close call for a global recession," the IMF said, adding that growth has been below that level only four times since 1980 - with the last two severe recessions in 2009, following ​the financial crisis, and in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic raged.

Inflation pressures

Gourinchas said that a number of countries would be in outright recessions under this scenario, with oil prices averaging $110 per barrel in 2026 and $125 in 2027. Prices at this level for an extended time would also increase expectations "that inflation is here to stay," prompting wider price increases and wage hike demands.

"That change in inflation expectations is going to require central banks to step on the brakes and try to bring inflation back down," he said, adding that this may require more pain than in 2022.

The IMF said, however, that central banks ​may be able to "look through" a short-lived energy price surge and hold rates steady amid weaker activity, which would be a de facto monetary easing, but only if inflation expectations remain anchored.

Global inflation for 2026 would top 6% in the severe scenario, compared to ​4.4% in the most-optimistic reference scenario, which is the assumption for the IMF's country and regional growth forecasts.

Major economy outlooks

The IMF shaved its US growth outlook for this year to 2.3%, down just a tenth of a percentage point from January, reflecting the positive effect of tax cuts, the ‌lagged effect of ⁠interest rate cuts and continued AI data center investment partly offsetting the higher energy costs. These effects are expected to continue in 2027, with growth now forecast at 2.1%, up a tenth of a point from January.

The euro zone, still struggling with higher energy prices caused by Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, takes a bigger hit from the Middle East conflict, with its growth outlook falling 0.2 percentage points in both years to 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% for 2027.

Japan's growth is largely unchanged under the most benign scenario at a weak 0.7% for 2026 and 0.6% for 2027, but the IMF said that it expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates at a slightly faster pace than anticipated six months ago.

The IMF forecast China's growth for 2026 at 4.4%, down a tenth of a point ​from January as the higher energy and commodity costs are partly ​offset by lower US tariff rates and government stimulus measures. ⁠But the IMF said headwinds from a depressed housing sector, a declining labor force, lower returns on investment and slower productivity growth will cut China's 2027 growth to 4.0%, a forecast unchanged from January.

Emerging markets, Middle East hit hard

Overall, emerging market and developing economies, where GDP tends to be more dependent on oil inputs, take a bigger hit from the Middle East conflict than advanced economies, with 2026 ​growth seen falling 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%.

Nowhere is this more pronounced than at the epicenter of the conflict in the Middle East and Central Asia region, which will see its ​2026 GDP growth fall by two full ⁠percentage points to 1.9% amid widespread infrastructure damage and sharply curtailed energy and commodity exports.

GDP declines for 2026 are forecast at 6.1% for Iran, 8.6% for Qatar, 6.8% for Iraq, 0.6% for Kuwait and 0.5% for Bahrain.

But under the assumption of a short-lived conflict, the region bounces back quickly, with 2027 GDP growth rebounding to 4.6%, a jump of 0.6 percentage point from the January forecasts.

The one bright spot amid emerging markets is India, which saw growth upgrades of about a tenth of a percentage point to 6.5% for both 2026 and 2027, due in ⁠part to momentum ​from strong growth at the end last year and a deal to lower the US tariff rate on Indian imports.

Fuel cost fiscal support

The IMF said that governments ​will be tempted to implement fiscal measures to ease the pain of higher energy prices, including price caps, fuel subsidies or tax cuts, but cautioned against these urges amid still-elevated budget deficits and rising public debt.

Gourinchas said it was "perfectly legitimate" to want to protect the most vulnerable, but subsidies in one country could lead to ​fuel shortages in others that can't afford them.

"You have to do it in a very targeted, very temporary way that doesn't really mess up the fiscal framework" needed by most countries to rebuild their fiscal buffers, he said.

Stocks at the Dhaka bourse slipped back into losses yesterday after a brief rebound in the previous session, as persistent sell-offs driven by cautious investor sentiment eroded early gains.

The downturn came amid heightened global uncertainty following the failure of talks between the US and Iran, prompting investors to offload shares and adopt a wait-and-see approach.

The benchmark index, DSEX, of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) fell by 41 points to close at 5,230. Market turnover also declined by 5%, while total market capitalisation dropped by Tk2,555 crore to Tk6.85 lakh crore, according to DSE data.

Market breadth remained negative, with 55% of traded stocks declining, compared to 31% advancing, while 14% remained unchanged.

The decline follows a modest recovery in the previous session when the market snapped a losing streak.

On Sunday, the DSEX gained 14 points after shedding around 60 points in earlier sessions.

Yesterday's trading began on a positive note, with indices staying in the green for the first 38 minutes until 10:38am, supported by early buying interest. However, the momentum proved short-lived as selling pressure, particularly in blue-chip stocks, pulled the indices into losses.

By the end of the session, the Shariah-based index DSES fell by 3 points to 1,057, while the blue-chip DS30 index declined by 31 points to 1,981.

Data showed that around 60% of A-category stocks, typically known for offering over 10% dividends, registered price declines. Meanwhile, 40% of Z-category stocks, considered junk stocks, also lost value.

In contrast, mutual funds posted gains, with 73% of traded funds closing higher.

In its daily market commentary, EBL Securities said the market failed to sustain the previous session's recovery as geopolitical concerns dampened investor confidence.

"Although the market opened on a positive note, the momentum quickly faded as jittery sentiment triggered broad-based sell-offs," the brokerage firm noted.

"Selling pressure intensified in large-cap stocks as the session progressed, dragging the broad index into negative territory and reflecting a lack of confidence among investors," it added.

Among the gainers, Mir Akhter Hossain Ltd topped the chart with a 9.82% rise to Tk31.3 per share. It was followed by Yeakin Polymer (9.03%), Fareast Finance (8.69%), Phoenix Finance 1st Mutual Fund (8.61%), and Premier Leasing (8.3%).

On the losing side, Meghna Condensed Milk Industries led the decliners, falling 4.67% to Tk36.7 per share, despite its operations remaining suspended for years. Other major losers included Apex Tannery (4.33%), KDS Accessories (4.27%), Sena Insurance (4.22%), and Peoples Insurance (3.86%).

The Dhaka stock market began the week on a cautiously optimistic footing, with insurance stocks leading a broad-based rally that helped the benchmark index close in positive territory despite lingering geopolitical concerns and mixed investor sentiment.

The DSEX, the prime index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), gained 13 points to settle at 5,271, while the blue-chip DS30 index edged higher to close at 2,002.

Market activity reflected a moderate level of participation, with 188 issues advancing against 145 decliners, while 66 securities remained unchanged.

Turnover also saw an uptick, rising 8% to Tk837 crore, although overall market capitalisation declined by Tk730 crore, indicating selective buying rather than a broad market surge.

According to EBL Securities, the market managed to post modest gains as investors returned to take positions in December-closing stocks, driven by expectations of favourable corporate earnings announcements. This renewed buying interest helped offset persistent concerns surrounding the fragile global backdrop.

Trading throughout the session remained volatile, with investors alternating between buying and selling positions during the mid-session. However, sentiment improved in the latter half of the day as buyers gradually took control, allowing the indices to close higher.

Within this mixed environment, the insurance sector stood out as the clear outperformer, attracting strong buying interest from short-term investors anticipating earnings-driven gains, according to the EBL securities.

General insurance stocks, in particular, dominated both turnover and price appreciation charts. The sector accounted for 14.2% of total market turnover, making it the most actively traded segment of the day. Engineering and pharmaceutical sectors followed with 13.7% and 11.8% shares of turnover, respectively, but neither matched the momentum seen in insurance counters.

The rally in insurance stocks was reflected prominently in the day's top gainers list, where companies such as Standard Insurance, Reliance Insurance, Pioneer Insurance and Phoenix Insurance all posted near double-digit gains.

Life insurance companies also posted gains, albeit at a more moderate pace, contributing to the sector's overall strength.

Despite the strong performance in insurance, the broader market showed mixed trends. Sectors such as services, telecommunications and financial institutions ended in negative territory, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid external uncertainties. This divergence highlights a market still searching for clear direction, with gains concentrated in select sectors rather than being evenly distributed.

Among individual stocks, Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag, City Bank, Acme Pesticides, Lovello Ice-cream and Paramount Textile led the turnover chart, indicating continued investor interest in diversified sectors alongside the insurance rally.

Meanwhile, the port city bourse also mirrored the positive sentiment, as the Chittagong Stock Exchange saw its key indices edge higher. The CSCX index rose by 9 points to close at 9,048, while the CASPI index also recorded a marginal gain to settle at 14,774, although turnover declined sharply.

Berger Paints Bangladesh – a publicly traded multinational company – has received approval from the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) to extend the deadline for utilising proceeds from its rights share issuance by one year.

The previous deadline of 31 March 2026 has now been extended to 31 March 2027. The company was formally notified of the approval through a letter issued today (12 April).

Company Secretary Khandker Abu Jafar Sadique told The Business Standard that the company had applied to the regulator seeking additional time.

"We received the approval letter today. The Commission has extended the utilisation period for all project-related expenditures by one year," he said.

Market insiders say the extension will support the company's ongoing expansion initiatives.

The company had earlier submitted a revised proposal to the BSEC seeking changes to the utilisation timeline of the rights issue proceeds. Under the revised plan, the deadlines for spending on land and infrastructure development, machinery and automation, as well as consultancy and other project-related costs have all been extended.

Earlier, the company's Board of Directors also revised the investment plan for establishing its third factory, increasing the total cost from Tk813 crore to Tk980 crore.

The increase was approved to incorporate design changes aimed at improving efficiency through enhanced automation, instrumentation, and a Manufacturing Execution System (MES). Higher construction costs driven by inflation also contributed to the revision.

Berger Paints noted that the adjustment was necessary due to a delay in the commencement of commercial production at its third factory, located at the national special economic zone. The change in the project timeline prompted the company to seek an extension to better align fund utilisation with the updated implementation schedule.

With the regulator's approval now in place, the company will be able to execute the project within a more realistic timeframe.

The share price of the paints maker closed at Tk1,393.10 on the Dhaka stock exchange today.

Berger Paints paid a 500% cash dividend, amounting to Tk231.88 crore, for the fiscal year 2023-24, which ended on 31 March. This represents the highest-ever dividend payout.

Bangladesh Autocars Limited has said there is no undisclosed price-sensitive information behind the recent sharp rise in its share price and trading volume, responding to a query from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) issued on 9 April.

In a statement published on the DSE website today (12 April), the company said it is not aware of any unreported development or material information that could explain the unusual movement in its stock.

The clarification follows a steep rally in the company's shares, which jumped 91% between 8 March and 12 April, reaching Tk240.60. Over the same period, its market capitalisation rose by Tk49.53 crore.

Despite the surge, valuation indicators have raised concerns among market observers. DSE data shows the company's price-to-earnings ratio climbed to 2,406 based on unaudited financials, while the audited price-to-earnings for FY25 stood at 1,336, well above the commonly accepted threshold of around 40.

Analysts say the company's small capital base has contributed to the volatility. It has a paid-up capital of Tk4.32 crore and 43 lakh shares outstanding, limiting free float and making the stock more susceptible to speculative trading. Sponsors and directors hold about 30% of the shares, further tightening supply.

Market participants have also recalled past concerns, noting that several individuals were penalised in 2019 for manipulating the company's share price.

Bangladesh Autocars, originally an automobile business, later expanded into CNG conversion and refuelling, setting up facilities in Tejgaon in 2003. However, industry insiders say margins in the conversion segment have declined in recent years.

Deposits in the country’s Islamic banking system rose 9.42 percent year-on-year to Tk 4.81 lakh crore at the end of December 2025, marking a rebound in shariah-based banks after years of irregularities and weak governance.

By the end of 2025, deposits with Islamic banking increased by Tk 41,434 crore compared with the corresponding quarter of 2024, according to the Bangladesh Bank (BB).

The trend over the past few years has been uneven. Deposits stood at Tk 4.09 lakh crore at the end of 2022 and rose to Tk 4.43 lakh crore by late 2023. They then slipped before regaining momentum through 2024.

Even so, the central bank said that some full-fledged Islamic banks remain under severe liquidity pressure, weighed down by persistent irregularities and poor accountability.

In the “Quarterly Report on Islamic Banking in Bangladesh”, the BB said that without good governance, the recovery will not last.

Islamic banks now hold 24.38 percent of total deposits across the banking sector and account for 29.10 percent of total investments, according to the report.

The number of deposit accounts in the Islamic banking system rose to 4.1 crore by the end of December 2025, from 4.04 crore a year earlier.

Of the total deposits, the 10 full-fledged Islamic banks held Tk 4.11 lakh crore, or 85.47 percent of the market share. Islamic branches of conventional banks held Tk 29,681 crore, while Islamic windows of regular banks held Tk 40,231 crore.

Among the full-fledged shariah-based lenders, Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC attracted the largest individual share of deposits at 37.44 percent, followed by Al-Arafah Islami Bank PLC at 10.41 percent and First Security Islami Bank PLC at 7.94 percent.

The BB report showed that investment by Islamic banks grew 9.55 percent year-on-year to Tk 5.25 lakh crore. This was equal to 29.10 percent of total loans and advances across the banking sector at the end of December 2025, according to the BB.

Large industries took the biggest slice at 40.18 percent of all Islamic bank investment, followed by trade and commerce at nearly 33 percent.

The central bank said the Islamic banking system has been playing a significant role in mobilising deposits and financing in various economic activities in Bangladesh.

However, the number of rural branches of full-fledged Islamic banks has not grown in line with demand. “They may focus more on expanding their outreach into rural areas,” it added.

The BB said Islamic banks may invest more in socially beneficial industries, particularly in agriculture and small businesses.

The central bank recommended that Islamic banks explore new customer bases in microfinance, support women entrepreneurs, and meet the financial needs of public agencies.

Oil prices jumped above $100 a barrel on Monday as the US Navy prepared to block ships from reaching Iran via the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could restrict Iranian oil exports, after Washington and Tehran failed to reach a deal to end the war.

Brent crude futures rose $6.71, or 7.05%, to $101.91 a barrel by 0104 GMT after settling 0.75% lower on Friday.

"The market is now largely back to conditions before the ceasefire, except now the US will block the remaining up to 2 million barrels per day Iranian-linked flows through the Strait of Hormuz as well," said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.

President Donald Trump said on Sunday the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz, raising the stakes after marathon talks with Iran failed to reach a deal to end the war, jeopardising a fragile two-week ceasefire.

He added that the price of oil and gasoline may remain high through November's midterm elections, a rare acknowledgement of the potential political fallout from his decision to attack Iran six weeks ago.

US Central Command said US forces would begin implementing the blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 10 am ET (1400 GMT) on Monday.

It would be "enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman," a CENTCOM statement on X said.

US forces would not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports, it added.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said the move would effectively choke off the flow of Iranian oil, forcing Tehran's allies and customers to apply the necessary pressure to get the waterway reopened.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday that any military vessels attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the two-week US ceasefire and be dealt with harshly and decisively.

Despite the stalemate, three supertankers fully laden with oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, shipping data showed. They appeared to be the first vessels to exit the Gulf since the ceasefire deal was struck last week.

Oil tankers are steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the US blockade on Iran, shipping data on LSEG showed.

On Sunday, Saudi Arabia said it has restored full oil pumping capacity through the East-West pipeline to about 7 million barrels per day, days after providing an assessment of damage to its energy sector from attacks during the Iran conflict.