The Bangladesh Bank has decided to pause regular purchase of dollars from banks to keep the market afloat as it sees risk of exchange rate volatility in case the Middle East war prolongs.

The central bank's monetary policy committee meeting scheduled for Wednesday to review a policy rate reduction was cancelled considering the ongoing situation as it could further put pressure on the exchange rate, said a senior executive of the central bank.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman, who had called the meeting as his first priority was to reduce the lending rate, has changed his mind, instructing officials that the policy committee meeting will be held after Eid.

The Bangladesh Bank bought $25 million from two commercial banks on Monday but decided to pause further dollar buying as it backtracked from the buying spree on Tuesday, according to central bank sources.

The central bank is in a comfort zone for now with its foreign exchange reserve position to meet additional demand for dollars amid rising trade costs after the US-Israel strikes on Iran.

But it will be challenging to keep the rate stable in the coming days if the war prolongs, said a senior executive of the central bank.

The country's foreign exchange reserves are still rising, reaching $30.5 billion as per the International Monetary Fund's calculation, while the figure stands at $35.3 billion as per Bangladesh Bank's own calculation.

The reserve amount is enough to cover imports of more than four months, according to the central bank.

Inter-bank dollar transactions remained normal, with a stable rate at Tk122 to Tk123. The exchange rate has not yet been hit by the war on the fourth day of the Iran conflict as the Bangladesh Bank had already paused regular dollar buying from the market as a precaution to keep it afloat.

However, the dollar market seemed slightly stressed as remittance inflow from Middle Eastern countries slowed on the first two days of March as workers could not go to exchange houses amid the alarming situation, said a senior executive of a private commercial bank.

On the other hand, the cash dollar price in the kerb market increased slightly by Tk0.10 to Tk0.20 over the last two days, trading between Tk125.80 and Tk126, according to brokers. However, the price of the Saudi riyal, dirham and other Middle Eastern currencies dropped.

Speaking to The Business Standard, Arif Hossain Khan, executive director and spokesperson of Bangladesh Bank, said, "We are not worried about inflow of remittance but concerned that many workers may lose their job."

He said the central bank buys dollars only when remittance inflows exceed the holding limit of banks.

Remittance inflow still remains high even after the Iran war as the country received $377 million in remittances in the first two days of March, up from $188 million received during the same period last year, central bank data show.

Islami Bank, which is the highest remittance earner, is experiencing a normal flow of remittances even after the Iran war as workers usually send higher amounts home ahead of Eid, said a senior executive of the bank.

"The official exchange rate still remains stable but it depends on energy reserves of the government," said a senior executive of the central bank.

The Bangladesh Bank is closely monitoring exchange rate movements and will sell dollars to keep the rate stable if it sees higher demand, he added.

The central bank bought $5.4 billion from the market since the start of FY26, which contributed to rebuilding reserves.

The financial account balance stood at a surplus of $2 billion at the end of July-December of FY26, compared to $525 million during the same period last year, giving more space to the central bank to spend reserves amid rising costs.

He, however, said the Bangladesh Bank may see a major shock in remittance inflows from Middle Eastern countries if the war prolongs as more than 50% of remittances come from the Gulf.

He said exports have already slowed, and remittances will also slow down if the war affects the job market in the Middle East. In this situation, rising import costs will put pressure on the exchange rate in the near future, slightly increasing the dollar price, he opined.

Speaking to The Business Standard, Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director of Mutual Trust Bank, said the exchange rate remained stable due to low import demand.

However, imports have started to rise slowly, and if demand picks up after a reduction in the lending rate, it will put pressure on the dollar market, he added.

Song Yang, commercial counsellor of the Embassy of the People's Republic of China in Bangladesh, has underscored a significant surge in investment commitments to Bangladesh.

"Since August 2024, more than 30 Chinese enterprises have signed investment agreements with Bangladeshi partners, with intended investments totalling nearly $1 billion," he said at an Iftar programme held at a hotel in Dhaka today (4 March), organised by the Bangladesh China Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCCI).

Leaders of the Chinese Enterprises Association in Bangladesh (CEAB) also expressed optimism about further investments in the coming days.

Han Kun, President of CEAB, reaffirmed the commitment of Chinese enterprises to supporting Bangladesh's development through investment, industrial cooperation, and participation in development projects.

In his welcome remarks, BCCCI President Khorshed Alam stressed the importance of expanding bilateral trade and investment. He noted that China has granted 100% duty-free access to Bangladeshi products and encouraged exporters to take advantage of this opportunity by promoting products such as fruits, vegetables, shrimp, agricultural goods, and leather items.

Among others present at the programme were Md Golam Rasul, chief of the Special Branch (SB) of Police; Mahbubur Rahman, president of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), Bangladesh; and Nargis Morsheda, former administrator of BCCCI and joint secretary at the Ministry of Commerce.

The event brought together diplomats, senior government officials, leaders of trade bodies, presidents of bilateral chambers, directors and members of BCCCI, and representatives from the media.

Electricity from Bangladesh's long-awaited Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant could begin flowing into the national grid by June or early July as the authorities prepare to start loading nuclear fuel into the plant's first unit early next month.

According to project officials, preparations are underway to begin fuel loading in the first week of April. Testing and synchronisation are then expected to continue through May and June, potentially allowing the first unit to start supplying electricity to the national grid by June or July.

Initially, the plant will provide electricity on a trial basis and at irregular intervals. Gradually, the facility will move towards full-scale generation.

Project officials told The Business Standard that the first unit is expected to be ready for fuel loading by the end of March. A fuel-loading ceremony will be organised and is expected to involve senior officials from Bangladesh and Russia.

Countries generating the most electricity from nuclear power

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman is expected to inaugurate the process, while a Russian minister and other senior officials may also be present.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, is expected to attend the ceremony. Russian President Vladimir Putin may also join the event virtually, officials said.

Due to the involvement of high-level officials from both Bangladesh and Russia, the exact date for fuel loading will be finalised through mutual consultation between the two governments, they added.

Testing and synchronisation

Officials said if fuel loading begins in early April, the process of loading nuclear fuel into the first unit could be completed within about a month. After that, the reactor will go through several stages, including achieving "criticality", technical tests, and synchronisation with the national grid.

Md Anwar Hossain, secretary of the Ministry of Science and Technology, said the first unit would be fully ready for fuel loading by 27 March.

"There are some formalities to complete. Because foreign guests will attend, the schedule must be coordinated. The prime minister will formally inaugurate the fuel loading," he told The Business Standard.

However, he noted that the current global conflict situation may create some uncertainty. "Travel for guests and technical testing could face difficulties," he said.

Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant: How far along is Bangladesh’s biggest energy project?

Explaining the timeline for power generation, Anwar said fuel loading would take around four weeks, followed by several more weeks of testing and synchronisation with the grid.

"In total, it may take two and a half to three months after fuel loading before electricity can be supplied to the national grid. We hope the plant will connect to the grid in the last week of June or the first week of July," he said.

He added that the timeline could still change because of the technical nature of the process. Delays may occur if Russian technical experts cannot arrive on time or if supply chain disruptions arise due to the ongoing war.

Officials said that out of more than 2,000 tests required for the project, around 150 minor tests are still ongoing in parallel. Most of these are expected to be completed by March, while a few remaining tests can be carried out during the fuel-loading phase.

Gradual rise in generation

Project officials said the first unit will initially produce around 300 megawatts of electricity. Output is expected to increase by 10% to 15% each month.

By November, the first unit could generate about 1,100 megawatts of electricity. After the physical start-up, it may take around eight to ten months to reach the full capacity of 1,200 megawatts.

They also said plans are in place to begin fuel loading in the second unit toward the end of this year, allowing it to start power generation as well.

Dr Md Zahedul Hassan, managing director of Nuclear Power Plant Company Bangladesh Limited, said key tests such as the "hot run" and "cold run" for the first unit had already been successfully completed.

"The project is now in the final inspection stage. From a safety perspective, no major problems have been found so far," he said.

Rooppur nuclear plant project cost to rise by Tk26,181cr after exchange rate adjustment

He added that the entire process is highly sensitive and technology-driven. Each stage is being examined according to international standards, and additional tests may be conducted if necessary to ensure safety and quality.

Officials stressed that safety remains the highest priority.

"This is a major milestone for the country. However, safety comes first. In nuclear projects, the final inspection, safety clearance and official approvals determine the timeline," an official said.

Officials further noted that extra time had previously been taken during several testing phases due to safety concerns, which could also affect the production schedule.

Delays and rising costs

The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant project has faced several delays over the years. In January, then science and technology adviser Salehuddin Ahmed said the first unit could be connected to the national grid by March, following fuel loading.

However, additional safety tests extended the timeline, preventing the plant from beginning electricity production that month.

The project, being built under an intergovernmental agreement between Bangladesh and Russia, was first launched in October 2013 when the then prime minister laid its foundation stone. Construction of the reactor and cooling dome of the first unit began in November 2017.

Initially, one unit was expected to start production in early 2021, but delays caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and other complications pushed back the timeline.

Loan tenure for Rooppur plant extended

In December 2015, the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission signed a contract with Russian state company Atomstroyexport for the construction of two nuclear units with a combined capacity of 2,400 megawatts, along with equipment supply, training, and fuel provision.

In March last year, the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council approved a revised proposal increasing the project cost by Tk25,592 crore.

The project's original cost was Tk113,092.91 crore, but after the revision, it rose to Tk138,685 crore, largely due to exchange rate fluctuations and higher costs in several components.

Officials said the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the dollar shortage have all affected the project's progress. Following the 90th joint coordination meeting between Bangladesh and Russia on 3 June 2025, the project timeline was extended.

Under the revised development project proposal, the overall completion deadline has now been set for June 2028, with the preliminary handover of the second unit expected by 31 December 2027.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman has assured that the withdrawal of the central bank-appointed administrator from Nagad will be a seamless process, explicitly ruling out the possibility of any unauthorised or "overnight" takeover of the mobile financial service provider.

The assurance came today (4 March) after the administrator team of Nagad briefed the governor on the company's current status, according to a senior official of Bangladesh Bank.

At present, Md Motasem Billah, a director of Bangladesh Bank, is serving as administrator at Nagad.

Central bank spokesperson Arief Hossain Khan told TBS that a special inspection at Nagad had uncovered extensive irregularities, while members of the previous board remain absent. He reiterated that the institution is owned by the Department of Posts.

"Nagad has not yet received a full licence from the Bangladesh Bank and is operating under an interim approval. We appointed an administrator because transactions involving nearly 4-5 crore customers are linked to this institution," he said.

The spokesperson alleged that parties outside the Department of Posts who previously held ownership stakes had engaged in such significant irregularities that, if the company were valued today, their net assets would be deeply negative. "There is no scope for them to return," he added.

Search for foreign investors

In August last year, former governor Ahsan H Mansur had said at an event in Dhaka that the government had decided to transfer Nagad to the private sector.

Subsequently, during the final phase of the interim government, Jamaat-e-Islami MP Barrister Mir Ahmad Bin Quasem Arman expressed interest on behalf of a foreign entity in investing in Nagad.

At the time, it was stated that if any credible foreign investor showed interest, necessary steps would be taken in coordination with the government.

Under the current governor, a fresh meeting was held today with Nagad's administrators to review the institution's position.

Forensic findings

Following the fall of the Awami League government on 5 August 2024, the Bangladesh Bank had decided on 21 August to appoint an administrator to oversee Nagad. The following day, central bank director Muhammad Badiuzzaman Dider was appointed administrator, alongside six supporting officials.

A subsequent inspection by the central bank found evidence of financial fraud through the creation of fictitious distributors and agents, as well as the issuance of excess electronic money without corresponding cash backing. The inspection identified discrepancies amounting to Tk2,356 crore.

The administrator at the time prepared a list of six officials allegedly responsible for creating unauthorised distributors and forwarded it to the Department of Posts for legal action. Letters were also sent seeking action against individuals involved in Nagad's operations.

The administrator team further informed the postal authorities that Tk1,711 crore had been siphoned off through 41 distributor accounts opened without approval. These accounts were reportedly designated for the distribution of government allowances.

In June last year, the Bangladesh Bank stated in a press release that Nagad had issued at least Tk645 crore in electronic money without depositing equivalent funds, causing financial losses to the Department of Posts and, by extension, the government.

Under the Bangladesh Bank Order, 1972, the sole authority to issue money on behalf of the state rests with the central bank.

The spokesperson said an internationally reputed audit firm KPMG has been engaged to complete a full forensic audit of Nagad. The findings of the international firm have reportedly corroborated the irregularities detected by the central bank's inspection team.

Following 5 August 2024, the chief executive officer Tanvir Ahmed ceased attending office. Executive directors Niaz Morshed (Elite) and Maruful Islam (Jhalak), deputy chief marketing officer Khandaker Mohammad Solaiman (Solaiman Sukhan), and human resources official Anik Barua were also absent.

After the administrator assumed charge on 21 August, they were dismissed. Several of the dismissed individuals were linked to ownership of Nagad.

British American Tobacco Bangladesh has recommended a 30% cash dividend for 2025, sharply lower than the 300% cash dividend it distributed in 2024.

Following the disclosure, the company's share price fell by 8.94% to Tk242.30 today (3 March) at the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

The company also reported a loss of Tk136 crore in the October–December quarter of 2025, reflecting a sharp deterioration in earnings amid declining cigarette sales and higher operating costs.

In a statement, the company reported a 67% decline in earnings per share (EPS) for the year ended 31 December 2025, as profit came under significant pressure. The significant drop was mainly due to lower turnover and increased operating expenses. Costs rose as a result of inflationary pressures and higher levels of activity in certain parts of the business.

Net operating cash flow fell by 81% compared to the previous year. The decline was largely driven by lower profit and higher cash outflows following an increase in excise duty, although some of the impact was offset by other factors.

In July 2025, the company ceased operations at its Dhaka factory and relocated the plant, machinery, and cigarette manufacturing equipment to its Savar facility. The compulsory site closure, coupled with relocation and restructuring costs, resulted in a one-off negative impact of Tk715 crore on operating profit compared to the previous year.

According to the company's financial statements approved at a board meeting held yesterday (2 March), the multinational tobacco manufacturer posted a loss per share of Tk2.53 in the fourth quarter of 2025.

For the full year ended December 2025, earnings per share stood at Tk10.81, representing a 67% decline year-on-year.

The company has scheduled its annual general meeting for 30 April to seek shareholder approval for the audited financial statements and the proposed dividend. The record date has been fixed for 1 April.

In its price-sensitive disclosure, the company did not offer detailed explanations for the sharp drop in profit and dividend payout in 2025. However, earlier disclosures indicated that business performance came under strain following the closure of its Mohakhali factory on 1 July 2025.

Bangladesh will face higher import and export costs if the US and Israel’s war against Iran prolongs, as shipping and airfreight charges have already started to rise, and cargo is being diverted along longer shipping and air routes.

Industry insiders say importing raw materials such as cotton and other factory inputs from the US and Europe might become more expensive, possibly driving up production costs at local mills and factories.

Since the war began on Saturday, at least six international airlines, including Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Air Arabia, have suspended cargo operations from Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport (HSIA), according to Kabir Ahmed, former president of the Bangladesh Freight Forwarders Association.

He said airlines that are still flying from Dhaka are carrying limited cargo, leaving more than 1,200 tonnes, particularly garments, stranded at the airport.

According to Ahmed, exporters may have to reroute shipments via China, Malaysia, and Hong Kong to reach Europe and the US, which is likely to increase costs.

Bangladesh usually uses Colombo, Singapore, and Port Klang in Malaysia as feeder ports. Smaller vessels carry cargoes from Chattogram to those seaports and feed large mother vessels. Most cargo then travels to Europe and the US via the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope.

Two years ago, shipping companies reduced Suez Canal use after Houthi attacks following Israel’s Gaza offensive. Vessels taking the Cape of Good Hope must travel nearly 5,000 kilometres further and burn more fuel, prompting higher freight charges.

“This time too, shipping companies have begun raising rates. International buyers may pass these costs onto local suppliers through discounts or cost-sharing requests,” said Ahmed.

He added that exports and imports are unlikely to face a full stoppage, though transportation costs will rise.

A more serious concern is energy supply.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and vowed to fire on any ship attempting to pass, threatening a critical maritime artery through which about one‑fifth of the world’s oil flows.

Reports say around 150 vessels were stranded near the strait yesterday, and at least four tankers had been damaged, as insurers cancel war risk cover for Gulf transits.

About 90 percent of Bangladesh’s imported oil passes through this strait.

The closure has already contributed to a double-digit rise in global oil prices, and government agencies are evaluating alternative energy sources amid concern about fuel supply and inflationary pressures.

Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said Bangladesh’s trade flow may manage to keep moving thanks to alternative channels and continued Suez Canal access.

“But freight costs will rise as shipping lines increase vessel fares. Rising liquefied natural gas prices will also push up production costs,” he added.

Meanwhile, Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange, said insurance premiums have already increased, and rerouted freight is likely to push up the cost of international trade.

Abdullah Al Mamun, spokesperson for the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA), said supply chain disruptions during conflict inevitably raise business costs, though alternative sourcing from Asian markets such as China and India can reduce risks.

Taslim Shahriar, deputy general manager of Meghna Group of Industries, said freight rates and global edible oil prices have already been affected.

“Freight for palm oil imports from Malaysia and Indonesia has risen by $8 to $10 per tonne. Soybean oil prices have increased by $30 to $40 per tonne, while palm oil is up $10 to $20 per tonne since the escalation,” he said.

Biswajit Saha, director of corporate and regulatory affairs at City Group, added that prolonged closure of the Hormuz Strait could cause problems, but short-term disruptions of a week or ten days are unlikely to create major difficulties.

Mohammed Monsur, general secretary of the Bangladesh Fruits, Vegetables and Allied Products Exporters Association, said regional instability is a concern ahead of the summer season, when Bangladesh’s vegetable exports to the Middle East can quadruple.

Anup Kumar Saha, executive director of Akij Insaf Group, said the country currently holds sufficient wheat stock to meet domestic demand for at least two months, providing some short-term relief.

While it’s tempting to assume the dollar’s long-lost “safety” bid has returned since the weekend Iran attacks, it’s not as clear-cut as it seems and owes more to relative energy plays. Yet the implications of the market response may be just as powerful.

Ever since Donald Trump’s return to the White House last year, the dollar has waned even during periods of market anxiety and volatility, due in ​large part to US economic policy uncertainty and both domestic and geopolitical upheaval.

Reversing years of dollar over-valuation is a key tenet of the Trump administration’s economic plan. But the greenback’s diminished haven role in times of ‌global political or financial stress suggests foreign investors - already up to their eyeballs in US assets - have changed their behaviour.

So it was remarkable that the dollar jumped across the board after last weekend’s extraordinary bombing campaign by US and Israeli forces against Iranian targets, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the wave of regional violence that’s followed.

The crux of the move hinged more on the inevitable energy price dynamics rather than any dash for dollars per se. In fact, it was more a default move out of the currencies of economies ​worst hit by an outsized and protracted energy price squeeze.

DOLLARS BY DEFAULT

With the US now a net exporter of total petroleum and energy products in general, the initial 10 percent surge in world oil prices on Monday hurt other ​major currencies much more due to fears of a major demand hit if the supply hiatus persists for several weeks or even months.

That’s why other traditional havens such as Japan’s yen , caught no safety bid this time around and plunged over 1 percent against the dollar on Monday given Japan’s big energy import bill and the fact that about a third of its energy imports comes through the Strait ​of Hormuz.

China too is a big consumer of oil now stuck in those contentious waterways, particularly deeply discounted Iranian crude that’s sanctioned in the West and now also in limbo. The recently high-flying yuan turned tail on Monday and dropped 0.8 percent as the ​situation unfolded.

“This isn’t a friendly outcome for the Northern Asian currencies,” said Societe Generale currency strategist Kit Juckes, adding that the most important indication from Trump so far has been that the US action will take weeks, not days.

For Europe, the calculation is compounded by its exposure to natural gas after the shipping attacks effectively closed the Hormuz route, a conduit for 20 percent of worldwide liquefied natural gas shipments and up to 30 percent of crude oil.

Benchmark European gas prices surged by almost 50 percent at one point on Monday to their highest in more than ​a year, closing up 35 percent and prompting the European Union’s gas supply group to schedule an emergency meeting for Wednesday.

A line chart of the price of the European gas benchmark contract in euros per megawatt hours (MWh) since October 1, showing increasing volatility since January.

A line chart of the price of the European gas benchmark contract in euros per megawatt hours (MWh) since October 1, showing increasing volatility since January.

The US supplied 58 percent of the European Union’s LNG last year. Qatar, which accounted for 6 percent of the bloc’s imports, shut down its ​production plants on Monday after attacks from Iran.

The euro fell 1 percent against the dollar to its lowest in more than a month.

The Swiss franc’s long-standing and often unwelcome haven status remains in play - but it’s complicated by the Swiss National Bank’s battle against deflation ‌and its restated commitment to intervene to sell francs to cap the unit.

READY RECKONERS?

As to the overall economic hit from an oil spike worldwide, Barclays economists assume every sustained $10 per barrel rise in crude prices takes up to 0.2 percentage point off global growth. And if a wave of forecasts of $100-plus per barrel were to prove accurate, then that could well bite.

As it stands, however, Monday’s net Brent crude price rise of $5 to $77 per barrel will be a much more modest blow - and the moves so far would barely have any significant demand impacts on the US itself.

Calculations then turn to whether oil price pressure becomes an economic depressant or inflation aggravator. With US core inflation running above 3 percent, ​that could argue for more focus on the latter and ​for keeping US interest rates high through the year - another support for the dollar.

But, as so often with Middle East conflicts, the initial ready-reckoners on global economic hits all hinge on duration of conflict and the energy supply disruption.

Trump has indicated the military campaign will run for four or five weeks and, likely riffing off that, prediction markets such as Polymarket see a 63 percent chance Trump will ​call a halt by the end of this month.

And yet most of the thinking on currency reactions is not strictly calculations of dollar hoarding or cross-border dash ​for safety - rather they seem ⁠just like relative economic assessments emanating from energy exposure.

But for all that, it can have a powerful and looping effect.

Barclays’ rule of thumb for the dollar, for example, is that it gains between 0.5 percent and 1.0 percent for every $10 increase in oil.

If dollar‑denominated energy prices rise and stay high, pushing the exchange rate up with them, that would both worsen the energy shock for overseas economies and drive the dollar even higher in a self‑reinforcing loop.

No one would want that scenario - least of ⁠all Washington.

Dhaka stocks tumbled in the first half today amid rising fears over the impact of the conflict in the Middle East after Iran warned of attacks on ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime trade routes.

The DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), plunged 131 points, or 2.37 percent, to 5,402 in the initial trading hours.

The decline came after a day of recovery in share prices. The premier bourse dipped amid concerns after the conflict began. Yesterday, the index rose 77 points.

The DS30, the blue-chip index, fell 59 points, or 2.89 percent, to 2,073.

The DSES, the Shariah-based companies’ index, also slumped in early trade.

Stock market analysts said investors were panicked as the Iran war was intensifying, which could impact Bangladesh’s economy, which is highly dependent on oil and gas from Middle Eastern countries.

Yesterday, Danish shipping giant Maersk suspended all new cargo bookings between the Indian subcontinent, including Bangladesh, and the Gulf region amid the evolving situation in the Middle East.

Earlier, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), in a customer advisory issued on March 1, declared a booking suspension for worldwide cargo to the Middle East.

Several other global shipping lines also announced the suspension of Middle East cargo bookings.

At the DSE, turnover — an important indicator of the market — stood at Tk 456 crore as of 11:53 am.

Among the traded stocks, 40 advanced, 326 declined, and 22 remained unchanged.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) on Tuesday approved the prospectus of ‘LankaBangla Fixed Income Fund,’ an open-ended mutual fund, during its 1001st commission meeting held at the BSEC headquarters in the capital.Bangladesh economic trends

The regulatory decision was reached today during the 1001st commission meeting conducted at the BSEC meeting room, said a press release.

BSEC Chairman Khondoker Rashed Maqsood presided over the session.

The ‘LankaBangla Fixed Income Fund’ is established as an open-ended mutual fund with an initial primary target of Taka 25 crore.

The LankaBangla Fund has a capital structure comprising a Taka 2.5 crore contribution from the sponsor and a Taka 22.5 crore public offering, with each unit priced at a face value of Taka 10.

According to a BSEC press release, the commission has formally approved both the draft prospectus and the abridged version of the prospectus for the fund. The approval of the abridged version serves as the regulatory clearance required for the asset manager to proceed with public notifications and the formal investor subscription process.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has allowed banks to provide special term loans to export-oriented industries to help them pay workers’ wages for February this year.

In a circular today, the central bank said that global and domestic economic headwinds, coupled with declining exports, delays in opening letters of credit and liquidity stress, have disrupted production in many export-oriented industrial establishments.

As a result, some firms are facing difficulties in paying workers' salaries and allowances on time, it added.

To ensure uninterrupted production and sustain export capacity, banks have been instructed to extend term loans, outside existing working capital limits, to solvent units for disbursing February salaries.

The loan amount cannot exceed the average wage and allowance payments of the preceding three months of the respective firm.

Only industries that export at least 80 percent of their total production will be considered export-oriented. In addition, eligible applicants must have paid workers’ wages for the period from November 2025 to January 2026, the BB directive reads.

The status of being “export-oriented” and “operational” must be certified by the relevant trade bodies, such as the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association.

Banks will directly disburse the payments into workers’ bank accounts, including through mobile financial services.

The facility will carry market-based interest rates. The loans must be repaid within a maximum of one year, including a three-month grace period. Repayment can be made on a monthly or quarterly instalment basis.

The central bank also barred banks from charging any additional fees, commissions or penalties beyond the regular interest on the loans.

The directive has been issued under Section 45 of the Bank Company Act, 1991.

BGMEA last week appealed to the governor to provide a loan equivalent to two months’ wages on easy terms as short-term support to ensure payment of salaries, allowances and bonuses.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), one of the country’s two premier bourses, suffered its steepest single-day fall in six years yesterday, as investor panic deepened over conflict in the Middle East following Iran’s warning of attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime trade routes.

The DSEX, the benchmark index of the DSE, plummeted 209 points, or 3.77 percent, to 5,325 on the day. The last time the index fell harder in a single session was on March 9, 2020, when it plunged 279 points.

The DS30, the blue-chip index, dropped 85 points, or 4 percent, to 2,050. Turnover rose 13 percent to Tk 885 crore. Among traded issues, 31 advanced, 349 declined, and 11 remained unchanged.

The declining trend extended to the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), where the CASPI, the port city bourse’s main index, dropped 414 points, or 2.6 percent, to 15,085. At the CSE, 45 stocks rose, 153 fell, and 16 remained unchanged.

“The market tumbled mainly due to panic centring on the Iran conflict,” said Kazi Monirul Islam, CEO of Shanta Asset Management.

He noted that investors had initially expected the war to be short-lived following the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, which helped the DSEX recover 72 points on Monday after shedding 139 points on the first trading day after the conflict began. Yesterday’s sharp reversal suggests that sentiment has shifted.

“Investors now realise the war will have a lasting impact on the economy. Oil and gas prices are already rising, and fears intensified further with the threat of closing the Hormuz Strait,” Islam said.

“This creates deep uncertainty among investors about the profitability of listed firms. The impact was clear on the stock market index,” he added.

The selloff was exacerbated by a sharp fall in British American Tobacco Bangladesh (BATBC), which announced its lowest dividend in nearly a decade for 2025 after its profits fell 67 percent during the year.

Islam noted that as one of the market’s largest-cap stocks, BATBC’s decline alone dragged the DSEX down by 22 points. The multinational tobacco company’s profit fell 67 percent in 2025, which contributed to a drop in its stock.

Robi Axiata, Brac Bank, Square Pharmaceuticals, Islami Bank, Beximco Pharmaceuticals, and Walton Hi-Tech Industries together contributed a further 51-point decline.

Islam also pointed to profit-booking as an additional pressure on the DSEX.

“Many investors had seen gains of 10 to 15 percent in their portfolios even though stocks remain undervalued. They are booking a profit even if they know the stocks are undervalued. This is common psychology, investors want to book profits,” he said.

Market analysts said the country’s economy is in a fragile state, making it especially vulnerable to the fallout from a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

Bangladesh sourced over 50 percent of its LNG imports, approximately 3.6 million tonnes, from Qatar and the UAE in 2025, making its energy security acutely exposed to Middle Eastern geopolitics.

BRAC Bank has promoted Md Shaheen Iqbal, CFA, and Ahmed Rashid Joy to additional managing directors (AMDs), effective from 1 March 2026.

Md Shaheen Iqbal will serve as additional managing director and head of wholesale banking. He will oversee corporate, commercial and institutional banking, transaction banking, structured finance, remittance and probashi banking, and financial institutions.

Shaheen joined BRAC Bank in 2004 and has worked across treasury and financial management, including foreign exchange, money markets, capital markets, derivatives, asset-liability management and financial institution relationships.

He completed his BSc in mechanical engineering from Bangladesh Institute of Technology, Chattogram (now CUET), and an MBA from the Institute of Business Administration (IBA), University of Dhaka. He is a CFA charterholder and a former president of CFA Society Bangladesh.

Managing Director and CEO Tareq Refat Ullah Khan said, "Shaheen Iqbal has been a cornerstone of BRAC Bank for 21 years, demonstrating unwavering commitment, leadership and excellence across multiple business functions. His strategic vision, innovation in financial products and market understanding will strengthen our wholesale banking business. In this leadership position, I am sure he will contribute to making BRAC Bank the most esteemed and preferred corporate and transaction bank in the industry."

Ahmed Rashid Joy has been promoted to additional managing director and chief risk officer. He joined BRAC Bank in October 2019 as head of credit risk management and, the bank said, has played a key role in strengthening risk governance and asset quality.

Ahmed Rashid began his banking career as a management trainee at Eastern Bank and has also worked at the International Finance Corporation (IFC), Mutual Trust Bank and IDLC Finance. He completed a master's in bank management (MBM) from the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM). The bank said he has served on several regulatory committees.

Commenting on the promotion, Khan said, "Ahmed Rashid's leadership has significantly enhanced our risk management capabilities. He has played a pivotal role in strengthening the risk management framework and driving key transformation initiatives. His technical expertise, disciplined approach and commitment to global best practices have been critical in maintaining superior portfolio quality and reinforcing our strong credit standing."

Banglalink is participating in Mobile World Congress (MWC) Barcelona 2026, held from 2–5 March 2026 in Barcelona, Spain, to engage with global industry leaders and explore the next phase of AI-led digital transformation.

Banglalink is a VEON company. VEON is a Nasdaq-listed, UAE-headquartered digital operator serving customers across five markets, including Bangladesh.

Hosted by the GSMA, MWC Barcelona 2026 is being held under the umbrella theme "The IQ Era", focusing on how artificial intelligence is reshaping networks, digital platforms and new services.

Banglalink said its officials, alongside VEON representatives, are holding bilateral meetings with global technology partners and development institutions, including the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation, to explore collaboration on digital infrastructure, financial inclusion and AI-driven innovation.

At the event, VEON Group CEO Kaan Terzioğlu delivered a keynote titled "Transforming Tomorrow's Connected World", highlighting VEON's DO1440 strategy and the need to embed digital services into daily life alongside connectivity.

Johan Buse, chief executive officer of Banglalink, said the AI era is a pivotal moment for Bangladesh's digital journey, with telecom operators evolving beyond connectivity to expand economic participation, and digital and financial inclusion.

Banglalink said it has integrated AI and machine learning into network planning and optimisation, introduced AI-enabled customer support tools, and expanded digital financial and lifestyle platforms as part of its evolution into an integrated digital services provider.

Banglalink said it has invested more than $2.5 billion in Bangladesh over the past two decades, contributed over $4 billion to the national exchequer, supported about 10,000 direct and indirect jobs, and serves more than 38 million subscribers.

An extended conflict in the Middle East after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran could trigger global stagflation -- a troublesome blend of high inflation and anaemic growth -- due to spiking oil and gas prices, economists warned.

WILL THERE BE AN OIL SHOCK?

The conflict has nearly halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of global seaborne oil passes, with several ships attacked.

Global oil prices shot higher on Monday, with the Brent crude international reference oil contract up nearly nine percent at $79.30 per barrel at 1410 GMT.

It briefly surpassed $80 per barrel earlier in the day, and was up considerably from the $61 per barrel at the start of the year.

Economist Sylvain Bersinger said the war risks “creating a third oil shock after those in 1973 and 1979 and the 2022 gas shock”.

Europe’s benchmark gas price shot more than 50 percent higher on Monday.

He said the price of oil could rise to $110 per barrel, but added that was no longer exceptional as oil prices had risen over $140 in 2008 and were above $100 in the 2010s.

Adam Hetts at asset manager Janus Henderson said that while oil prices would certainly rise, the increase should remain “at reasonable levels”.

WHAT IMPACT ON GLOBAL TRADE?

The conflict could act as a shock to trade “at the worst possible moment”, said economists at ING bank.

The global trading system is already under stress from US President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive as well as the fragmentation of supply chains since Covid and the war in Ukraine.

Moreover the closure of the Gulf airspace is disrupting aviation between European and Asia, they noted.

For Ruben Nizard, head of political risk research at Coface, a trade credit insurance company, this crisis could also “throw another wrench into the works by driving up maritime freight costs” and pushing up inflation.

“At the global level, this would open the door to an economic scenario of stagflation,” he added, referring to a situation with high inflation and weak or non-existent growth.

WHAT IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY?

According to economists at Natixis bank, a prolonged disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz “would have major implications for markets, but also for inflation dynamics and overall economic stability”.

They added that “China would be particularly affected by this war.”

Cyrille Poirier-Coutansais, director of the research department at the French Navy’s Centre for Strategic Studies, agreed that China is particularly dependent upon oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The question is whether there will be enough fuel to keep the world’s factory running,” he told AFP.

For the economist Sylvain Bersinger the impact on Europe will likely be less than the 2022 gas shock, which would help France in particular to avoid a recession.

In a sign of declining investor confidence, the interest rate on European sovereign bonds climbed on Monday.

The yield on 10-year German government bonds, the benchmark in the eurozone, stood at 2.70 percent in afternoon trading, compared with 2.64 percent on Friday.

WHAT RISKS IN A LONG WAR?

The intensity and duration of the conflict will be key in determining its impact.

“In a prolonged conflict, the combination of higher energy costs, disrupted logistics, and a generalised confidence shock would constitute a meaningful drag on global trade volumes at precisely the moment the world economy was still digesting the inflationary and growth consequences of the tariff shock,” said economists at ING bank.

Coface’s Nizard said they estimated that “an increase of roughly 15 dollars in the price of Brent over a prolonged period could shave about 0.2 percentage points off global growth and add almost half a point to inflation.”

These are “not insignificant” effects in a context of “fairly fragile global economic growth”, he added.

Ahead of Eid-ul-Fitr, the government has released Tk2,500 crore under the Cash Incentive (CI) and Special Cash Incentive (SCI) schemes to meet the demand for foreign exchange in the export sector.

The funds were disbursed in two phases by the Ministry of Finance.

A senior ministry official told The Business Standard that exporters had requested the release of cash incentive funds, prompting the release of the third installment for the current fiscal year 2025-26.

On 19 February, Tk1,500 crore was released in the first phase, followed by another Tk1,000 crore yesterday.

Commercial banks will now claim the sector-wise cash incentive funds from the Bangladesh Bank, which will disburse the money according to the banks' requests.

Exporters will receive their due incentives through these commercial banks.

The government provides cash incentives for exports across 43 sectors, including domestic textiles, frozen shrimp and other fish, and leather products.

A 1% special cash incentive is also offered for ready-made garment (RMG) exports.

Incentive rates range from 0.30% to 10%, with the largest beneficiaries being the RMG and textile sectors.

Following the announcement, the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) expressed gratitude to the government for the timely release of funds ahead of Eid.

In a press release dated 3 March, BGMEA Acting Secretary Major Saiful Islam stated that BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan thanked the government's top leadership, the finance minister, the commerce minister, and the central bank governor.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has sought budget proposals from business organisations across the country as it begins preparations for the 2026-27 fiscal year budget.

In a notification issued yesterday, the revenue board said that work on the upcoming budget has already commenced.

In line with its practice in recent years, the tax authority aims to formulate a participatory, people-oriented, and equitable budget by incorporating suggestions from taxpayers at different levels, chambers of commerce, trade associations, professional bodies, research institutions, and members of the intelligentsia.

Business chambers and associations have been requested to submit their written proposals to the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) by March 15.

A soft copy of the proposals should also be sent to the NBR via email at nbrbudget2026@gmail.com.

The NBR said the initiative is intended to make revenue mobilisation more meaningful, analytical, and representative, adding that all interested stakeholders are encouraged to participate in the process.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has relaxed rules for the renewal of continuous loans, allowing banks to renew such facilities before they turn non-performing, in a move aimed at supporting businesses amid prevailing economic challenges.

The central bank issued a circular today stating that banks must initiate the renewal process at least two months before a loan’s expiry.

If renewal cannot be completed within the stipulated time due to reasons beyond control, banks may still renew the facility before it is classified as a non-performing loan (NPL), it added.

However, lenders must document the reasons for any delay in renewal.

The central bank also instructed that any excess over the approved loan limit must be adjusted before renewal.

Banks are barred from separating the excess portion to create a new loan or transferring it to another account to avoid proper classification.

The policy will remain effective until December 31, 2027. A previous circular issued in June 2025 on the same matter has been revoked.

The directive was issued under Section 45 of the Bank Company Act, 1991, and takes immediate effect.

Bangladesh Bank has allowed banks to renew continuous loans even after the stipulated tenure expires, provided the loan has not yet been classified as a default.

In a circular issued yesterday (2 March), the central bank directed all scheduled banks to implement the decision immediately. The facility will remain effective until 31 December 2027.

Under the new directive, if renewal of a continuous loan is not completed within the existing tenure, it may still be renewed until the loan becomes non-performing.

However, if it is classified as a default loan, renewal will no longer be permitted until the outstanding amount is adjusted.

Bankers said the move would ease pressure on both banks and clients during the current economic situation.

They noted that delays and procedural complexities in renewing short-term loans, particularly in the import-export and trade sectors, would be reduced.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Business Standard there is a risk of creating a culture where continuous loans are kept regular without actual repayment, which could pose long-term challenges for the banking sector.

The official said that in the case of large credit limits, businesses are expected to withdraw and repay funds within the approved limit and adjust the entire loan at the end of the year or keep the account within the stipulated conditions.

"According to the new circular, Bangladesh Bank has given them an extra three months; however, strict monitoring must be maintained to ensure proper implementation," the official said.

The circular also stated that the renewal process, including receipt of applications and preparation of documents, must begin at least two months before the loan tenure expires.

If renewal cannot be completed on time due to reasons beyond control, it may be finalised before the loan is classified as default, provided the cause of the delay is documented in writing.

It further said that any over-limit portion of a loan may be adjusted and renewed. However, such over-limit amounts cannot be shown as a separate new loan or transferred to another account.

Previously, continuous loans, which usually have a one-year tenure, had to be renewed within that period.

If the borrower failed to complete the renewal on time, the entire outstanding amount, including principal and interest, had to be repaid before a fresh process could begin.

Under the new rules, borrowers will get an additional three months after the expiry of the original tenure. If the outstanding interest is paid within this extended period, the loan can be renewed without being classified as default.

If the interest remains unpaid beyond that time, the loan will be treated as non-performing and cannot be renewed until the full outstanding amount is settled.

Gold prices have increased again in the country, with the rate of 22-carat gold rising by Tk3,324 per bhori (11.664 grams), the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus) said today (3 March).

Following the latest adjustment, the price of 22-carat gold has been fixed at Tk2,77,428 per bhori, according to a notification issued by Bajus.

Bajus said the new rate had been determined in view of an increase in the price of pure gold (tejabi gold) in the local market and the overall market situation.

Under the revised pricing structure, 21-carat gold will cost Tk2,64,773 per bhori, while 18-carat gold has been set at Tk2,26,981 per bhori.

The price of gold produced under the traditional method has been fixed at Tk1,85,749 per bhori.

The last adjustment had come yesterday, when Bajus raised the price of 22-carat gold by Tk5,424 per bhori to Tk2,74,104.

So far in 2026, gold prices have been adjusted 36 times in the domestic market, raised on 24 occasions and reduced 12 times.

Despite the hike in gold prices, silver rates remain unchanged.

Currently, 22-carat silver is being sold at Tk7,173 per bhori.

In 2026, silver prices have been adjusted 21 times, with rates increased 14 times and reduced seven times.

Bangladesh's power plants and factories risk fuel shortages within days after QatarEnergy invoked force majeure on its long-term LNG contract, forcing Petrobangla to scramble for costly spot cargoes in an increasingly strained global market.

QatarEnergy, the world's largest LNG producer and Bangladesh's biggest supplier, halted production following an Iranian attack earlier this week. Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has instructed authorities to urgently procure LNG from the spot market to avert a nationwide energy crisis.

Officials at the Energy and Mineral Resources Division confirmed that at least four spot cargoes are being sought for delivery in March.

QatarEnergy's Force Majeure notice

On 2 March, QatarEnergy formally notified Petrobangla of a "potential event of Force Majeure" under Clause 17 of their agreement, citing "recent hostilities in the region." Petrobangla Chairman Md Arfanul Hoque acknowledged receipt of the letter and said contingency measures are already underway.

Under the contract, QatarEnergy was scheduled to deliver 40 of Bangladesh's 115 planned LNG cargoes this year. With supplies now uncertain, Petrobangla fears a sweeping gas shortage that could disrupt power generation, industrial output, exports, and daily life.

Other long-term suppliers including QatarEnergy Trading LLC, OQ Trading Ltd, and Excelerate Gas Marketing Limited may also face disruptions due to their reliance on Qatari supply, though trading firms could have limited flexibility to source alternatives.

A force majeure clause excuses liability for non-performance during certain unforeseeable, uncontrollable, and exceptional events like natural disasters, wars, or pandemics.

QatarEnergy supplies around 20% of the world's seaborne LNG.

Scramble for alternatives

Policymakers warn that if such a major supplier dries up, securing cargoes from elsewhere will become increasingly difficult due to tightening global supply.

The QatarEnergy letter states, "While the Seller is still assessing the situation, it considers it important to inform the Buyer that these circumstances may prevent it from performing its delivery obligations under the Agreement."

It added, "We will keep you updated as the situation evolves and provide further information when it becomes available."

Immediately after receiving the notice, Petrobangla wrote back to QatarEnergy seeking clarification on whether deliveries would continue, as the letter used the phrase "may prevent" – leaving room for uncertainty.
PM directs LNG procurement from spot market amid Mideast crisis

Even before the production halt, LNG supply had been under pressure following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route.

According to the latest Petrobangla data, seven LNG cargoes are scheduled to arrive in March – six from QatarEnergy via the Strait of Hormuz and one from Angola.

Petrobangla has already secured four cargoes from QatarEnergy, while two remain uncertain.

"We wrote to QatarEnergy to confirm whether they would be able to supply or not by today (3 March)," Arfanul said.

Contingency plan activated

Amid uncertainty over long-term supplies, Petrobangla has activated contingency plans and on Monday called for quotations from enlisted suppliers for delivery windows on 15 and 18 March. These two windows were originally scheduled for QatarEnergy cargoes, which are now in question following the force majeure declaration.

Petrobangla has also reached out to other suppliers to confirm whether they can honour their contractual commitments, given their exposure to Qatari supply, the chairman added.

How Petrobangla plans to offset supply cut

With the oil and gas supply chain already fragile amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, concerns are deepening. US President Donald Trump has signalled that the war could drag on for another four to five weeks — a statement that sent shockwaves through global energy markets as oil and gas prices climbed.

Meanwhile, Iran's complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has left ships stranded, further complicating logistics.

Officials from the Energy Division and Petrobangla said that if hostilities persist and shipping through the Strait remains blocked, Bangladesh will have little choice but to turn to the spot market.

"We got the green light from the government to search for alternative sources like the spot market," Arfanul said. "But availability has become a major challenge following the production halt by a global giant like QatarEnergy."

Despite soaring prices, the Energy Division has instructed Petrobangla to secure spot cargoes as quickly as possible to fill the vacuum created by disrupted long-term supplies.

Before the escalation, spot LNG was trading below $9 per MMBtu. On Monday, the Asian spot LNG benchmark – the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) – surged to $13.365 per MMBtu.

If prices rise further, the burden on Bangladesh's energy import bill will aggravate.

Asked how Petrobangla would navigate prolonged high prices, the chairman struck a cautiously hopeful tone: "I hope the war will not last for months," he said. "To keep supply afloat, we have to bring LNG from the spot market. Otherwise, we will have no option but to cut supply to all sectors."

April supply also in question

Policymakers are now sounding alarm bells over April as well, fearing that the crisis may spill into the following month.

Officials say the supply chain has become increasingly fragile due to the complex geopolitical situation and the knock-on impact on QatarEnergy's output.

The Petrobangla chairman said the company has already reached out to all April suppliers seeking clarity.

"We have written to our April suppliers asking them to make their position clear regarding supply next month. They have been given time until 10 April to confirm," he said.

The chairman added that Petrobangla's next course of action will depend on their responses. "Based on their reply, we will decide our next steps, including securing additional LNG from the spot market, if necessary."

With uncertainty now stretching beyond March, energy officials fear that without timely confirmations, Bangladesh may have to rely even more heavily on high-priced spot cargoes to keep gas supply flowing.