Business leaders today (9 February) demanded stricter watch over large importers and extortion networks, warning that harassing small retailers will not help keep prices of essential commodities stable ahead of Ramadan and the upcoming national election.

They blamed macro-level extortion by a section of the police and administration for market instability, saying such practices directly push up prices of daily essentials.

The speakers urged the authorities to increase monitoring on major importers, mill gates and key supply-chain points rather than conducting frequent drives against small shopkeepers.

The demands were raised at a consultation meeting organised by the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) to review the import, stock, supply and price situation of essential commodities ahead of Ramadan.

The meeting was chaired by FBCCI Administrator and Additional Secretary to the Ministry of Commerce Md Abdur Rahim Khan.

Addressing the meeting, Abdur Rahim Khan said that, as in previous years, FBCCI would monitor the market during Ramadan to ensure normal supply and reasonable prices so that consumers can buy essential goods at fair rates with the cooperation of businesses.

He noted that the volume of letters of credit (LCs) opened this year is significantly higher than last year, describing it as a positive sign for market stability. He also urged all stakeholders to remain cautious and restrained so that no unexpected or abnormal behaviour disrupts the supply chain.

Mohammad Imran Master, president of the Bangladesh Raw Materials Wholesale Traders Association, said perishable goods cannot be controlled by syndicates due to their nature.

"Supplies of onions, chillies, brinjal and coriander are adequate.

Prices may rise slightly during the first few days of Ramadan if demand increases suddenly, but that will not be long-lasting," he said.

He added that there could be some pressure on lemon supply, though no major shortage is expected overall.

Golam Mowla, general secretary of the Bangladesh Edible Oil Wholesalers Association, criticised enforcement agencies for targeting small retailers every Ramadan. "NSI, DGFI or the district administration raids small shops as soon as Ramadan begins. For selling at eight annas or one taka more, small traders are fined hundreds of thousands of taka," he said.

"But there is no effective monitoring of large importers or at the mill-gate level, where hundreds of crores are siphoned off. Oversight must be ensured at the higher level."

Market observer Kazi Abdul Hannan warned that large-scale extortion could intensify during the transition period of Ramadan and the national election. He alleged that in some markets, traders are forced to pay lump-sum extortion ranging from Tk5 lakh to Tk10 lakh to district and upazila-level administration and police. "This extortion has a direct impact on commodity prices," he said.

Highlighting the plight of poultry farmers, Poultry Association adviser Khandaker Monir Ahmed said producers are on the brink of collapse as selling prices have fallen far below production costs. "Against a production cost of Tk10.58 per egg, farmers are being forced to sell at Tk5–6," he said.

Criticising the government's subsidised egg sales, he warned that fixing prices below production costs would eventually destroy the industry.

Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) General Secretary Md Humayun Kabir Bhuiyan said 10 monitoring teams will operate daily across Dhaka during Ramadan to oversee market conditions. He urged traders to preserve cash memos and sell goods at reasonable profit margins, warning that those creating artificial shortages through unethical practices would face strict action.

Business leaders at the meeting also proposed withdrawing additional duties on dates and suggested importing frozen meat to address potential protein shortages during Ramadan.

Speakers agreed that if proper monitoring is ensured and extortion is curbed, there is no rational reason for prices to rise during Ramadan this year.

Representing Meghna Group, Deputy General Manager Taslim Shahriar said there is no problem in the sugar market. "We are supplying a record volume of sugar. Last year sugar was priced at Tk130 per kg; now it is Tk92–93 at the mill gate," he said.

He added that despite fluctuations in the international market and some port-related challenges due to long holidays, sufficient stock is in the pipeline and the market is expected to remain stable during Ramadan.

FBCCI former director Gias Uddin Khokon painted a grim picture of the overall business environment, alleging widespread bribery and harassment.

"To obtain a gas connection for industry, bribes of up to Tk5 crore are demanded. Although bank interest rates were supposed to decrease, they have increased instead," he said. "With extortion, bribery and harassment at every step, businesses cannot control prices. Market monitoring should have started much earlier."

Representatives from government agencies, private sector bodies, business owners' associations and various trade organisations were present at the consultation meeting.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) plans to take the unprecedented step of directly inspecting properties offered as collateral for loans exceeding Tk 50 crore as Governor Ahsan H Mansur intensifies efforts to root out fraud and restore discipline to the crisis-hit banking sector.

In a move that signals a significant tightening of oversight for high-value exposures, BB will no longer rely solely on commercial banks’ internal valuations.

Instead, BB teams will verify the existence and value of lands or properties pledged as security.

The initiative aims to dismantle governance failures in the financial system, where politically connected borrowers have historically secured inflated loans against non-existent or grossly overvalued assets.

“Properties or lands used as collateral will be inspected by a BB team, so that lending can be disciplined,” Mansur said at a press conference on monetary policy in Dhaka yesterday. “Those properties must be registered with the BB for scrutiny.”

The directive targets the upper tier of corporate borrowing, a segment rife with non-performing loans.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur has said he did not face any pressure from the government or any quarter while discharging his duties during the tenure of the interim government.

"During my time as governor under the interim government, I did not feel any kind of pressure from any side. Rather, there was operational freedom and no interference whatsoever. This can be stated without hesitation," the governor said while speaking to journalists at the announcement of the monetary policy today (9 February).

However, he noted that despite submitting recommendations for several important laws to the government, they were not implemented. One of them was the Bangladesh Bank Order.

"In October, the Bangladesh Bank Order was sent to the Ministry of Finance for finalisation. Even though there was sufficient time, it could not be implemented. This has to be considered a failure, because it should have been done," he said.

He added that the second key legislation was the Bank Company Act. "This is also a very important law. We believed the current government would be able to implement it, but that did not happen. Therefore, we hope that whichever government comes next will honour the financial development commitments made in their election manifesto," he said.

The governor said these issues would be placed before the next government, stressing that implementation is necessary in the national interest.

"If these reforms are not carried out, the misuse and plundering of the banking sector that we saw in the past could return. Implementing the Bank Company Order as a permanent shield is essential. Central banks around the world are protected in this manner," he added.

Ahsan H Mansur also distinguished political and central banking priorities. "Politicians want to boost the economy quickly in the short term, whereas the responsibility of a central bank is to ensure sustainable development. This is what we see in the United States. If political pressure does not come onto the central bank, economic discipline will not be lost," he said.

He cautioned that while discipline has not yet been fully restored, losing it again would be unfortunate.

Referring to foreign exchange management, the governor said the central bank had purchased $4.5 billion from the market, injecting more than Tk50,000 crore into the economy.

"Through these purchases, reserves have been built up. Are we dependent on the IMF? No. Even in reserve building, the central bank is not dependent on the IMF," he said.

The US is using offtake deals and state-backed funding to compete in the short term with China in securing supplies of African copper, cobalt and other critical minerals, diplomats, executives and analysts said ahead of this week's Indaba.

Washington's focus is on Zambia, Guinea and Democratic Republic of Congo. The latter accounts for more than 70% of global cobalt supplies and produced some 3.3 million metric tons of copper in 2024.

Instead of placing US operators in high-risk countries, however, the US is leaning towards offtake and other trading structures such as one it has with Mercuria and arrangements it has with Congolese state miner Gécamines, to edge output into US-aligned value chains dominated by Chinese refiners.

Offtake is where a country or company secures rights to a share of a mine's output in exchange for financing or other support.

"We're already seeing US engagement reshape mineral flows out of Africa," said Thomas Scurfield, a senior analyst with nonprofit NRGI, ahead of the event in South Africa.

"The US is putting money behind its rhetoric, but it remains to be seen whether it can compete with China's scale and speed," Scurfield added.

Both Washington and Beijing are expected to seek new commitments at the Indaba mining event in Cape Town this week, with the US sounding out officials on its minerals bloc.

Central to the change, Gécamines is preparing to ship around 100,000 tons of its Tenke Fungurume copper allocation to US buyers this year after winning broader marketing rights in a 2023 renegotiation with China's CMOC.

Financial firepower rather than industrial presence

The US strategy stretches beyond copper.

Xiao Wenhao, analyst at Shanghai Metals Market, said China's cobalt supply chain also faces risks as Congo's export restrictions collide with expanding US–DRC cooperation.

Elsewhere, London-based Pensana ditched plans to build a rare earth refinery in Britain to process feedstock from its mine in Angola, shifting the project to the United States, citing stronger US incentives and price guarantees.

"This is the US deploying financial firepower rather than industrial presence," said Vincent Rouget, analyst at Control Risks. "With offtake and trading channels, Washington can redirect Congolese copper to American buyers without taking on the political or operational risks of running mines in the DRC."

Chinese firms still control many of Congo's biggest copper and cobalt assets, including Tenke Fungurume and Kamoa-Kakula, and have routed most output to China for refining for more than a decade.

Beyond copper and cobalt, Congo is emerging as a supplier of zinc, germanium and gallium.

New offtake arrangements position Gécamines as a leading zinc exporter and principal buyer of germanium and gallium concentrates, with the company recently recording its first export of locally processed germanium.

China versus the west

The contrast in capital deployment remains sharp.

KoBold Metals has staked more than 3,000 square kilometers in the lithium and copper belt, but will not advance projects which are entangled in disputes, stressing governance standards, its Congolese head Benjamin Katabuka told Reuters.

Chinese operators, by contrast, have proceeded on contested ground, reinforcing their speed‑to‑market advantage.

At Manono, one of the world's largest undeveloped lithium deposits, KoBold says it will not move until ownership issues are resolved, even as Zijin advances infrastructure on the northern block.

If it secures the southern block cleanly, KoBold says production could start within three years.

In Guinea, China‑backed Winning Consortium Simandou pushed ahead with rail and port construction at the giant Simandou despite ownership disputes, effectively forcing Rio Tinto to fall in line.

Bangladesh's financial account recorded a surplus of $2.04 billion in the first six months of the current fiscal year, driven by higher net foreign direct investment (FDI) and increased trade credit.

According to the Balance of Payments (BOP) data released by the Bangladesh Bank today (9 February), the surplus during July–December of FY26 marks a sharp improvement from $525 million in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

At the same time, the country's current account deficit narrowed to $343 million in the first half of FY26, down from a deficit of $518 million a year earlier, supported mainly by strong remittance inflows of $16.6 billion.

Supported by the strong financial account surplus, Bangladesh's overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of $1.94 billion in July–December FY26, compared to a deficit of $467 million in the same period last year.

The current account is a key component of the balance of payments (BOP), reflecting a country's trade in goods and services, income from abroad, and current transfers such as remittances.

Bangladesh Bank data show that the trade deficit widened by 18.34% year-on-year to $11.55 billion during July–December FY26, compared to $9.76 billion in the same period last year. Imports rose by 5% to $33.67 billion, while exports grew by only 0.9% to $22.12 billion.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said the rise in imports was mainly driven by higher purchases of consumer goods and capital machinery. Imports of consumer goods increased by 10.32%, while capital machinery imports jumped by 23.64%.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, told The Business Standard that trade credit and net aid flows were the two main factors behind the strong financial account performance.

He explained that trade credit often turns negative when exports rise, but weaker export growth and higher deferred import payments have pushed it into surplus this time.

Remittance inflows in the first half of FY26 were about $2.5 billion higher than a year earlier. However, the trade deficit was roughly $1.79 billion wider, offsetting much of the remittance gain and limiting the improvement in the current account, according to him.

"The deterioration is primarily due to the widening trade deficit," Zahid Hussain said.

"Imports have increased, which in itself is not bad for the economy, but exports have not grown accordingly. In fact, export growth has fallen below 1%, widening the trade deficit and weighing on the current account."

He added, "An increase in imports is not a bad thing for the economy; rather, it is a sign of a healthy economy."

"A decline in exports, however, is detrimental. Therefore, I believe it is essential to work on increasing the country's exports in the coming days," the economist said.

Shares of Bay Leasing and Investment Limited surged yesterday to the day's upper circuit after the non-bank financial institution reported a sharp reduction in losses for the July-September quarter of 2025, signalling improvement in its quarterly performance despite long-term challenges.

According to a price sensitive statement filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the company's consolidated net loss declined by 80% year-on-year to Tk4.79 crore during the third quarter of 2025.

In the same quarter a year earlier, the company had posted a higher loss, with its loss per share narrowing to Tk0.34 from Tk1.67 over the period, reflecting better cost management.

The quarterly improvement was supported by a modest rise in interest income and a sharp fall in funding costs. Interest income edged up by 1% to Tk15.23 crore, while interest expenses on deposits and other borrowings dropped by 36% to Tk22.53 crore.

Market participants viewed the decline in interest expenses as a positive development, especially at a time when many non-bank financial institutions continue to struggle with high funding costs and asset quality issues.

Following the disclosure, the company's share price rose by 10% to Tk4.40, hitting the daily circuit breaker on the Dhaka bourse.

Traders said the stock attracted speculative buying interest on expectations that the company may be gradually stabilising its operations after several years of sustained losses.

However, the broader financial picture remains challenging. In the first nine months from January to September 2025, Bay Leasing's consolidated net loss widened by 31% to Tk47 crore, mainly due to heavy losses incurred during the first half of the year. As a result, its consolidated loss per share stood at Tk3.35 at the end of the nine-month period.

The company's balance sheet continues to reflect significant stress, with accumulated negative retained earnings amounting to Tk658.85 crore. This dragged its consolidated net asset value to a negative Tk28.55 per share, underscoring the depth of its financial difficulties.

The company has not declared any dividend since 2020, when it last paid a 10% cash dividend. Since then, the company has remained in the red every year.

Listed on the stock exchanges in 2009, Bay Leasing's shareholding structure shows sponsors and directors holding 18.30% of shares, while institutional investors own 23.98% and general investors hold the remaining 57.72%, according to its latest shareholding report.

Bangladesh's capital market is showing signs of recovery, but its long-term growth will depend on post-election political stability, structural reforms, and sustained regulatory improvements, the central bank said yesterday.

In its monetary policy statement for January–June 2026, Bangladesh Bank (BB) said the market exhibited an upward trajectory in the first half of FY26 despite occasional fluctuations, driven by a sharp increase in turnover that signals a revival of market momentum.

The DSEX index, the benchmark of the capital market, rose 0.6% to 4,865 points at the end of December 2025, up from 4,838 points in June.

The index gained further ground in the following weeks, crossing the 5,200 mark in early February 2026. Average daily turnover reached Tk650 crore in H1 FY26, up from Tk472 crore a year earlier, reflecting renewed investor confidence, BB said.

"These positive developments reflect revitalized market momentum, supported by ongoing reforms and a more favorable macroeconomic environment," the central bank said.

To further modernize the capital market, the government is pursuing measures including reducing state shareholdings in multinational companies, encouraging local firm listings, preventing market manipulation, and providing tax incentives.

BB also highlighted that the introduction of commodity exchanges and blockchain-based back-office systems is expected to improve transparency and bolster investor confidence. Coordinated efforts by the Ministry of Finance and other stakeholders are seen as essential to deepen financial markets and develop a more efficient debt market.

Regulatory Reforms to Boost Stability

The central bank noted recent amendments by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), which aim to enhance market stability, build investor confidence, and support long-term development. Among these, the Margin Rules 2025 strengthen risk management in margin trading, while proposed updates to IPO, Mutual Fund, and Public Issue Rules are intended to improve transparency and governance.

BSEC has also introduced faster investor dispute resolution mechanisms, established a Shariah Advisory Council to expand Islamic capital market products, and adjusted compliance timelines for brokers to reduce market stress, BB said.

Bond Market Developments

In the secondary market, a total of 232 government treasury bonds were actively traded until December 2025. During the month, the government raised Tk240 billion through six investment Sukuk, enabling banks and non-bank financial institutions including Islamic banks to meet statutory liquidity requirements and participate more actively in monetary management.

To strengthen the secondary market and establish a market-based yield curve, Bangladesh Bank has mandated that Primary Dealers provide two-way price quotes for Treasury bonds within the first hour of each business day, with compliance expected by 31 January 2026.

The newly signed Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan will cost Bangladesh less than Tk 20 crore annually in forgone import duties on Japanese goods, while potentially delivering substantial benefits through expanded exports and labour mobility to the world’s fifth-largest economy.

The February 6 agreement, signed in Tokyo, creates a heavily asymmetric arrangement that favours Bangladesh, according to a briefing by Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin held at the commerce ministry office in Dhaka yesterday.

Under the deal, Japan will provide immediate duty-free access to 7,379 Bangladeshi products while Bangladesh will grant the same privilege to just 1,039 Japanese items, a ratio of more than seven to one.

The number of duty-free Japanese products will increase gradually over 18 years. Bangladesh’s garment industry, the crown jewel of the export sector, stands to gain significantly from favourable terms that could enhance its competitiveness in the Japanese market.

Bangladesh’s garment industry stands to gain significantly from favourable terms that could enhance its competitiveness in the Japanese market
The agreement permits single-stage transformation, allowing manufacturers to enjoy zero-duty benefits even when using imported fabrics, Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said at the conference.

This provision addresses a key constraint for Bangladeshi exporters, who often rely on imported textiles due to limited domestic fabric production capacity.

The secretary also noted that Bangladesh, being a least developed country (LDC), enjoyed a privilege in some areas in the deal with Japan, a developed nation.

For instance, he said Bangladesh has been given 10 years of relaxation in the intellectual property rights which means Japan will not ask for the patent right of the goods in next 10 years from the date of enforcement of the EPA.

Beyond trade in goods, the EPA creates significant opportunities for Bangladeshi professionals in Japan’s ageing, labour-constrained economy.

The agreement enables skilled workers, including doctors, nurses, caregivers, and domestic helpers, to access Japanese employment markets, Adviser Bashir Uddin said.

Japanese investors are already establishing language training centers in Bangladesh to prepare workers for these opportunities.

The commerce adviser expressed optimism that students and professionals will be able to access opportunities in the G-7 nation, potentially creating a new avenue for foreign remittances.

The services component of the agreement also tilts in Bangladesh’s favour. Bangladesh secured access to 120 Japanese sub-sectors while opening 98 sub-sectors across 12 sectors to Japanese investment.

The EPA’s timing proves crucial as Bangladesh prepares to graduate from LDC status later this year, which typically triggers loss of preferential trade terms. While Japan has separately extended existing LDC benefits for Bangladeshi goods until 2029, the EPA provides a more permanent framework for market access.

The deal represents Bangladesh’s first comprehensive bilateral trade agreement with a major developed economy, following a more limited preferential trade arrangement with Bhutan in December 2020. It reflects the government’s strategy to secure preferential access with key trading partners before losing LDC privileges, with similar negotiations underway with other major economies to maintain export competitiveness in the post-LDC era.

The agreement awaits ratification by Japan’s parliament, the Diet, which is expected within the next few days as the general election in Japan was held February 8, said the commerce adviser. The adviser also said seven rounds of negotiation were held to sign the agreement between the two countries.

State Minister for Foreign Affairs in Japan HORII Iwao signed the agreement on behalf of Japan while Bashir Uddin from Bangladesh on behalf of Bangladesh.

Bangladesh Bank has yet again decided to be clenched-fist on money supply.

During the second half of this fiscal year, according to monetary policy statement (MPS), the policy rate will remain unchanged at 10 per cent as inflation frowns.

In the new MPS unveiled Monday, the central bank, however, takes into cognizance concerns vented by economists and businesses over investment stagnation and announces some stimuli like higher credit supply to private sector.

But monetary experts opine differently about the inflation-control strategy, saying that the Bangladesh Bank (BB) brings some changes in the projections of monetary policy statement that might further feed into inflation, driven largely by supply-side factors.

According to the latest MPS for January-June period, the disinflation process is currently showing some inconsistencies, but remains at a relatively elevated level, suggesting that a policy-rate reduction may not be prudent at this time.

"It's essential to anchor the exchange-rate stability. As this helps contain imported inflation, lowering the policy rate could unintentionally create depreciation pressure on the exchange rate," it is stated in the policy document.

There are also several near-term inflation risks, including the upcoming national elections, the approaching holy month of Ramadan, and the possible announcement of a new national pay scale.

"These elements typically stimulate demand and consumer spending, underscoring the need for a careful, balanced monetary policy."

Accordingly, BB will maintain the policy rate at 10.0 per cent and continue its tighter stance in the second half of the fiscal 2025-26, the regulator says to justify the carryover contractionary policy.

The Standing Lending Facility (SLF) will be held at 11.5 per cent. However, BB decided to lower Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) by 50 basis points from 8.0 per cent to 7.5 per cent.

The lowering of SDF is aimed at encouraging interbank money market as well as private-sector investment, loan and advances activities.

Under the MPS, the broad money or M2 is projected at 7.8 per cent until December 2025 but the money-supply growth actually reached 9.60 per cent. The initial broad money projection was 8.50 per cent by end of June next. Now the projection is revised upward to 11.50 per cent.

In terms of credit to the public sector, the projection has been enhanced to 21.60 per cent by June next in place of prior projection of 18.10 per cent.

Simultaneously, the projection of private-sector credit growth has also been expanded to 8.50 per cent until June next from the initial projection of 8.0 per cent, in accordance with the latest MPS.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Dr Ahsan H. Mansur said they ought to concentrate on building up foreign-exchange reserves. In the process, they have purchased more than US$4.50 billion from the banks in the last seven months and injected liquidity worth over Tk 500 billion into the market.

"Yes, it has a cost but we don't see it as cost because the broad money projection (11.50 per cent) is still lower if we consider the nominal GDP and inflation target (over 12 per cent)," he told the policy-presentation function.

Talking about the nature of the MPS, the central bank governor said it is tightened but not as tight as it used to be. "The reality is we're easing up within the tighter framework."

Responding to a question over possible impact of the government bank- borrowing pressure if the proposed pay scale is implemented, the governor said it would certainly push up government bank borrowings if it is not met by increasing revenues.

He said the credit growth to the public sector had already climbed as high as 28.9 per cent by December last. "If it increases further, it will have negative impact on private sector. So, we need to make the government understand the consequences. We want the government will meet a portion of the funding requirement through revenue mobilisation so that presser is lesser."

Dr Mansur thinks it will cause two problems: interest rate will not decrease or rise further and fuel inflationary pressure. "These are unpleasant tradeoffs. We cannot deny it."

Regarding the lowering of SDF rate by 50 basis points, he said there are banks having surplus liquidity but they did not invest in the money market. Instead, they keep the funds into the BB at 8.0 per cent.

"The BB does not need money. We want banks invest the money in interbank market or in the private sector. That's why we cut the SDF rate to discourage it," he added.

Contacted for his view, former lead economist of World Bank's Dhaka Office Dr Zahid Hussain said the monetary-policy regime shifted to interest-rate targeting from monetary targeting. Under the policy shift, there is no target but projections.ঢাকা বিমান টিকেট

He says the central bank can contain inflation through controlling demand-side factors but the latest inflation spikes largely driven by the supply-side factors where the central bank has almost no control.

In this MPS, the economist says, some sort of easiness has been observed. "If demand side loses, it will create additional fuel to the fire. With this strategy, bringing down inflation at the expected level is not realistic."

About the SDF-rate cut, he says the rate is lowered mainly because of public-sector-borrowing pressure. "It may be a mild measure to prevent crowding-out effect." The economist was suggesting the central bank to mention the future path of reforms like Bangladesh Bank Order, Bank Company Act, Distressed Asset Management Act and AQR (asset quality review) in the MPS, which is missing.

In an immediate reaction, Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) expressed grave concern and disappointment over central bank's decision to maintain contractionary monetary policy solely in the name of controlling inflation.

"Despite prolonged tight monetary conditions," it says, "inflation has not been effectively contained, proving that this tool has largely failed while inflicting serious damage on productive economic activities."

The trade body believes growth, employment and investment cannot be revived under an excessively restrictive monetary regime. "We look forward to the next elected government adopting a more pragmatic and growth-supportive policy framework coordinating the fiscal and monetary policy," it says, as the election is barely three days away now.

The benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) posted its strongest single-day gain of 2026 yesterday (9 February), as investors rushed to take early positions ahead of the national election, buoyed by growing optimism over political clarity and expectations of continued capital market reforms under the next government.

The DSEX jumped 1.58%, gaining 82 points to close at 5,311, marking the sharpest one-day rise this year. The rally brought the index close to its recent peak of 5,337, recorded on 8 October 2025, and reflected a decisive shift in investor sentiment after weeks of cautious trading.

Broad-Based Rally and Rising Turnover

Market breadth was overwhelmingly positive, with 327 advancing issues against 37 decliners, while 33 stocks remained unchanged. Turnover rose 35% to Tk646 crore, driven by participation from both retail and institutional investors.

The surge added around Tk3,300 crore to the Dhaka bourse's market capitalisation in a single session, highlighting renewed confidence in equities.

According to EBL Securities, investors were motivated by the opportunity to take early positions in momentum-driven and undervalued stocks, encouraged by expectations of a favorable market trend following improved political clarity. Buyers dominated trading from the outset, maintaining control throughout the day, leading to broad-based gains across sectors.

Analysts noted that the announcement of the election schedule and clearer signals from political parties on economic and market reforms encouraged investors to return to equities more decisively after a prolonged period of subdued sentiment.

Sector Highlights

Banking stocks led trading activity, accounting for 20.6% of total turnover, as investors bet on improved profitability and policy support. Pharmaceutical shares contributed 15.7%, while textile stocks made up 15.6%, indicating broad-based interest across key industrial sectors.

Minhaz Mannan Emon, director of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, told The Business Standard that reforms by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) under the interim government have played a key role in rebuilding investor confidence. These initiatives include improving the quality of IPOs, strengthening market discipline, curbing manipulation through amended IPO, margin loan, and mutual fund rules, and taking action against major market manipulators.

Although earlier reforms did not trigger a sustained rally, investor sentiment has strengthened after the country's two major political parties separately addressed the capital market in their election manifestos, according to Ashequr Rahman, managing director of Midway Securities. Investors are hopeful that whichever party forms the government will honor commitments to market reforms, ensuring a more stable and predictable policy environment.

Top Gainers and Broad Participation

Trading activity centred on large-cap and actively traded stocks, with Simtex Industries, Asiatic Laboratories, Dhaka Bank, Islami Bank, and Bangladesh Shipping Corporation emerging as the top traded counters. Non-bank financial institutions led sectoral gains with a 2.6% rise, followed by textile and cement stocks, each advancing 2.4%.

Individual gainers included Sharp Industries, AB Bank, LankaBangla Finance, IFIC Bank, and Premier Bank, reflecting strong buying interest across manufacturing and financial sectors. Some profit-taking occurred in stocks like Islami Bank and Al-Arafah Islami Bank, as well as select mutual funds and industrial shares, causing minor price corrections.

Market participants said the broad-based nature of the rally indicates a healthy recovery rather than a narrow speculative surge confined to a few stocks.

The next elected government must prioritise bold economic reforms starting from its very first day in office to sustain macroeconomic stability and reignite growth momentum, economists and policy analysts said today (9 February).

They emphasised that reforms should be front-loaded within the first two years of the tenure, arguing that postponement often leads to political hesitation and a loss of momentum.

The observations came at a seminar titled "Macroeconomic Insights: An economic reform agenda for the elected government," jointly organised by the Policy Research Institute (PRI) and the Australian Government's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) at a city hotel.

Speaking as the chief guest, Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed said resistance to reform was deeply entrenched across institutions.

"In government and everywhere, there is a lack of coordination and an apathy to reforms. Everyone can talk about reforms, but [many] want the status quo," he said.

"Especially those who have pensions, they want 'let it stay as it is, let it run for another 10 years'. This inertia became the problem we faced," he said.

Political hesitation, reform fatigue

KAS Murshid, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), noted Bangladesh's reform record showed that major changes usually happened only under external pressure.

"The interesting thing about reform is that if you look back at our economic history, the only time when you see significant reform taking place is when the IMF breathes down our necks," he said.

He noted that governments often shy away from necessary changes due to fear of political backlash, usually acting only when forced by external realities.

To counter this, he proposed a dedicated institutional framework. "We actually need some kind of institution, like a Regulatory Reform Commission, that will be solely engaged in looking at policy reforms, researching policy reforms and making recommendations to the government," he said.

Jobs, skills, social protection

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) said, despite years of high GDP growth, the economy failed to generate adequate employment, a key driver behind the recent social uprisings.

She pointed to a serious skills mismatch in the labour market, where higher educational qualifications often correlate with higher unemployment rates.

Fahmida urged the next government to focus heavily on labour market reforms and social protection, noting that without domestic resource mobilisation, funding these safety nets would be impossible.

Speaking at the event, Clinton Pobke, deputy high commissioner at the Australian High Commission in Bangladesh, said the country had strong economic potential if the right policies were implemented. "If the foundational policy pieces are put in place, there is no reason Bangladesh couldn't sustain 8-10% growth," he said.

Presenting the keynote paper, PRI principal economist, Ashikur Rahman, highlighted serious weaknesses in the banking sector, describing the situation as precarious.

He revealed that while non-performing loans (NPLs) in private sector banks were reported at around 7% earlier in 2024, asset quality reviews (AQRs) have now uncovered the real figure to be approximately 32%.

"The NPL did not suddenly increase; it was hidden," he said. "The banking sector has a staggering Tk6.4 trillion in distressed assets sitting on balance sheets."

PRI Chairman Zaidi Sattar, along with other industry experts and development partners, also spoke at the seminar, reiterating calls for a regulatory reform commission and stronger policy coordination to navigate the changing geopolitical landscape.

The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Bangladesh and Japan is expected to come into force immediately after approval by Japan's newly formed parliament.

Officials said the deal will initially cost Bangladesh around Tk20 crore in annual revenue, while creating significant opportunities for exports, services, investment, and employment.

The announcement was made today (9 February) at a press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce at the Secretariat. Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin and Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman addressed the press, outlining the key features, benefits, and challenges of the EPA.

The agreement was signed on Friday in Tokyo, with Sk Bashir Uddin and Japanese Deputy Foreign Minister Hori Iwao representing their respective countries. Negotiations began on March 24, 2025, and after seven rounds covering 21 issues, the agreement was finalised.

Trade and Tariff Benefits

Under the EPA, Bangladesh will grant Japan duty-free access for 1,039 products, while Japan will provide duty-free entry for 7,379 Bangladeshi products. Currently, Bangladesh's tariff line includes 7,458 items.

Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman explained that according to WTO principles, countries are generally required to provide duty-free access to 80% of products, which will be implemented gradually over 5 to 15 years, with some products taking up to 18 years to achieve full duty-free treatment. He added that additional products will be granted duty-free access to Japan over time.

Mahbubur Rahman also noted that many products, including food items, cotton, and yarn, already enter Japan at zero duty, while machinery faces 1% duty.

Combining these, Bangladesh has already provided 1,039 products with duty-free access, meaning the immediate revenue loss is minimal.

Bashiruddin said the expected initial revenue loss is around Tk20 crore or less per year.

Service Sector and Investment Opportunities

The EPA allows Bangladesh to operate 120 services duty-free in Japan, while Japan opens 98 services in Bangladesh. Currently, sectors such as five-star hotels and mobile phone services are included. Officials said the agreement is expected to attract Japanese investment into Bangladesh's service sector.

A key feature of the agreement is the single-stage transformation facility for Bangladesh's ready-made garments. Bangladesh can import fabric, manufacture garments with only 30% value addition, and export them duty-free to Japan. Bashiruddin highlighted that this provision could significantly enhance the competitiveness of Bangladesh's garment industry.

Implementation Timeline

Mahbubur Rahman said the EPA must be approved by parliament before coming into effect. Following Japan's Sunday election, the National Diet is expected to convene soon, after which the agreement will become operational.

Bashiruddin added that Bangladesh is not rushing implementation, as it already enjoys duty-free access under its LDC status, extended until 2029.

Economic and Employment Opportunities

Bashiruddin said the agreement creates broad economic opportunities, including expanded exports, investment, and employment for Bangladeshis in Japan.

The EPA has already increased the flow of Bangladeshis to Japan, particularly for language training, enabling them to access a variety of skilled jobs. Japanese language institutes are expected to expand, providing further workforce development.

Challenges and Next Steps

On potential challenges, Sheikh Bashiruddin said that as Bangladesh graduates from LDC status, it must liberalize trade under WTO frameworks. Businesses will need to strengthen their capacity to fully leverage the EPA; otherwise, challenges may arise. The agreement provides 18 years to build sectoral capacity, ultimately benefiting domestic industries and consumers.

Ramadan Market Stability

Addressing market stability during the upcoming Ramadan, Sheikh Bashiruddin said the government has ensured sufficient imports to meet demand, despite potential strikes and misinformation on social media.

While acknowledging that strikes are a democratic right, he warned that unrest could negatively affect markets. Officials said imports are already in transit, ensuring that sufficient goods will reach the market. He expressed confidence that the upcoming Ramadan would see better market stability than last year.

The Bangladesh Competition Commission (BCC) has fined S Alam Super Edible Oil Ltd Tk 42.84 crore for artificially inflating cooking oil prices by restricting supply and colluding with dealers and rivals to manipulate the market in 2022.

Following demands from businesspeople, the government raised edible oil prices by Tk 38 per litre on May 5, 2022. Yet supply remained tight, leaving consumers struggling.

The BCC later launched an investigation into the import, production and pricing of cooking oil during that period, and filed charges against the company later that month.

In its final order, issued last Tuesday, the commission found that S Alam Super Edible Oil Company had violated the Competition Act of 2012 by restricting output and conspiring with distributors and other firms to control the market, reads a press statement.

It violated Section 15’s sub-section 1 and sub-section 2’s clauses a(i) and b of the law, which prohibit agreements that harm competition or create monopolies and oligopolies, particularly those that fix abnormal prices or limit production and supply.

Afroza Bilkis, a member of the BCC, told The Daily Star that S Alam Super Edible Oil Ltd must pay the fine within 30 days of receiving the full judgment.

If the company disagrees with the ruling, it can file a review with the commission or appeal to the Secretary of the ministry concerned within the same timeframe.

Bilkis added that failure to pay, review, or appeal would be considered a violation of the order, allowing the commission to initiate legal action, including criminal proceedings, against the company.

The company is owned by Mohammed Saiful Alam, who is accused of laundering thousands of crores of taka in loans from banks under his control during the 15 years of the Awami League-led regime.

The Daily Star attempted to contact S Alam Group’s Kazi Salahuddin Ahmed, senior general manager, and Subrata Kumar Bhowmick, executive director for finance, for comments on the matter. However, they did not respond by the time of filing this report, as of 6:30 pm.

Workers and employees at Chattogram Port have suspended their indefinite strike over the proposed New Mooring Container Terminal deal with DP World until 15 February, considering the upcoming general election and the need to keep goods moving ahead of Ramadan.

The announcement came in a press release issued early today (9 February) by the Chattogram Bandar Rokkha Sangram Parishad, which has been spearheading protests for the past nine days.

The group said Shipping Adviser Brig Gen (retd) M Sakhawat Hussain and Bida Chairman Chowdhury Ashik Mahmud Bin Harun had earlier told journalists that the interim government would not sign the NCT agreement during its tenure.

Despite the assurance, the platform alleged that the Chittagong Port Authority had taken a series of punitive actions against protesting workers. These included the arrest of five port employees, the filing of what it described as harassment cases, the transfer of 15 employees to different ports across the country and the imposition of various disciplinary measures.

It added that housing allocations of protesting workers had been cancelled and that 16 employees had been suspended, along with other penalties.

"In the interest of the 13th national election in 2026 and to ensure uninterrupted release of essential goods ahead of Ramadan, and following discussions with our leaders, we have decided to suspend the strike programme from 8am on 9 February to 15 February," the press release said.

The workers warned that failure to address their concerns within this period would prompt fresh programmes, to be announced at a press conference on 16 February.

The statement was signed by Mohammad Humayun Kabir and Mohammad Ibrahim Khokon, coordinators of the council.

It began its work abstention programme at 8am on 31 January, initially observing an eight-hour stoppage from 8am to 4pm for three days.

From last Tuesday (3 February), the protest escalated into an indefinite work stoppage, which was briefly suspended for two days following a visit by the shipping adviser on Thursday.

Despite the pause, the council alleged that further administrative actions by the CPA had reignited tensions, prompting workers to resume an indefinite strike yesterday morning.

The renewed stoppage disrupted operations at port terminals and the outer anchorage.

Indian refiners are avoiding Russian oil purchases for delivery in April and are expected to stay away from such trades for longer, refining and trade sources said, a move that could help New Delhi seal a trade pact with Washington.

The US and India moved closer to a trade pact on Friday, announcing a framework for a deal they hope to conclude by March that would lower tariffs and deepen economic cooperation.

Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Reliance Industries are not accepting offers from traders for Russian oil loading in March and April, said a trader who approached the refiners.

These refiners, however, had already scheduled some deliveries of Russian oil in March, refining sources said. Most other refiners have stopped buying Russian crude.

TRUMP SAYS INDIA 'COMMITTED' TO HALTING PURCHASES

The three refiners and the oil ministry did not respond to requests for comment. The trade minister on Saturday referred questions about Russian oil to the foreign ministry.

A foreign ministry spokesperson said: "Diversifying our energy sourcing in keeping with objective market conditions and evolving international dynamics is at the core of our strategy" to ensure energy security for the world's most-populous nation.

Although a US-India statement on the trade framework did not mention Russian oil, President Donald Trump rescinded his 25 percent tariffs on Indian goods, imposed over Russian oil purchases, because, he said, New Delhi had "committed to stop directly or indirectly" importing Russian oil.

New Delhi has not announced plans to halt Russian oil imports.
India became the top buyer of discounted Russian seaborne crude after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, spurring a backlash from Western nations that had targeted Russia's energy sector with sanctions aimed at curtailing Moscow's revenue and making it harder to fund the war.

INDIA'S RUSSIAN-OIL IMPORTS A FRACTION OF 2025 LEVELS

One regular Indian buyer is Russia-backed private refiner Nayara, which relies solely on Russian oil for its 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery. Sources said Nayara may be allowed to keep buying Russian oil because other crude sellers pulled back after the European Union sanctioned the refiner in July.

Nayara also does not plan to import Russian crude in April due to a month-long refinery maintenance shutdown, a source familiar with its operations said.

Nayara did not respond to an email seeking comment.

Indian refiners may change their plan and place orders for Russian oil only if advised by the government, sources said.

Trump's order said US officials would monitor and recommend reinstating the tariffs if India resumed oil procurement from Russia.

Sources said last month that India was preparing to cut Russian oil imports below 1 million bpd by March, with volumes eventually falling to 500,000–600,000 bpd, compared with an average 1.7 million bpd last year. India's Russian oil imports topped 2 million bpd in mid-2025.

The intake of Russian oil by India, the world's third-biggest oil consumer and importer, declined to its lowest level in two years in December, data from trade and industry sources show.

Indian refiners have been buying more oil from Middle Eastern, African and South American countries as they scale back Russian oil purchases.

Stocks opened the week in negative territory as investors opted to book profits following recent gains, pushing the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) slightly lower amid a cautious trading mood.

The DSEX, the broad index of the prime bourse, edged down by 0.10% to close at 5,229 points, while the blue-chip DS30 index slipped 0.17% to finish at 1,998 points today (8 February).

Market breadth reflected a lack of clear direction, with 162 issues advancing, an equal number declining, and 69 remaining unchanged.

Turnover dropped sharply by 19% from the previous session to Tk478 crore, indicating reduced participation as investors stayed on the sidelines in the absence of fresh catalysts. Market participants appeared reluctant to take aggressive positions after the recent upward trend, choosing instead to reassess valuations.

EBL Securities, in its daily market review, said the benchmark index started the week on a flat note as investors took advantage of the recent price appreciation to realise profits, triggering sustained selling pressure in several large-cap and blue-chip stocks. It noted that investors remained watchful over further political clarity ahead of the upcoming national election, which continued to influence short-term sentiment.

Sector-wise, pharmaceutical stocks dominated turnover, accounting for 14.7% of total trading value, followed closely by textile and banking sectors, each contributing 13.6%. Asiatic Laboratories, Simtex Industries, Kay and Que, Islami Bank and Monno Fabrics emerged as the most actively traded stocks of the day.

Most sectors ended the session in the red, with engineering and jute stocks posting the steepest declines of 1% each, while the tannery sector lost 0.7%. The negative sectoral performance underscored the impact of profit-taking across a wide range of scrips.

Interestingly, the top gainers' list was dominated by risky and loss-making financial institutions, as speculative interest pushed up prices of Fareast Finance, International Leasing, Peoples Leasing and FAS Finance, each posting double-digit gains. Associated Oxygen also featured among the gainers.

On the losing side, DBH First Mutual Fund suffered the sharpest decline, followed by Meghna Condensed Milk, Meghna PET, Reliance Insurance Mutual Fund and Prime Bank First ICB AMCL Mutual Fund, as investors offloaded positions in these issues.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also mirrored the weak sentiment. Its selective categories index CSCX fell by 43 points to 9,078, while the all-share index CASPI dropped 48 points to close at 14,683. Turnover on the port city bourse stood at Tk6.33 crore.

Shares of several politically linked companies drew strong buying interest on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) yesterday, with Kay & Que (Bangladesh) Limited and three Monno Group firms ranking among the session's top gainers.

Kay & Que topped the gainers' chart, surging 8.74% to close at Tk434 per share.

Market participants attributed the sharp rise to speculative sentiment following the company's chairman, Abdul Awal Mintoo, to contest the 2026 parliamentary election from the Feni-3 constituency.

Mintoo, a former president of the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) and a vice chairman of the BNP, is a prominent figure whose political developments often influence investor interest in his associated firms.

Similarly, Monno Group companies enjoyed a notable rally. Monno Agro Industries advanced 7.11% to close at Tk364.1, while Monno Fabrics gained 6.73% to end at Tk22.2. Monno Ceramics also added 4.12%, finishing the day at Tk83.3 per share.

Investors linked the rally to expectations surrounding Afroza Khan Rita, chairperson of Monno Group of Industries, as a BNP candidate for the Manikganj-3 constituency, prompting short-term traders to build positions amid evolving political developments.

Market analysts, however, cautioned that such rallies are frequently driven by speculation rather than underlying financial fundamentals. They noted that in the run-up to national elections, stocks associated with politically active entrepreneurs often draw significant attention, leading to heightened volatility.

Analysts advised retail investors to focus on valuations and underlying financial performance, warning that politically driven price surges can reverse quickly once speculative heat cools down.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) is set to announce its monetary policy for January-June of the current fiscal year today, just two days before the national election.

BB Governor Ahsan H Mansur will present the policy at 11:00am at a press conference at the central bank’s Motijheel headquarters. This will be the last monetary policy under the current interim government.

The policy rate, or repo rate -- a key interest rate used to influence overall economic activity, credit and inflation -- is expected to remain unchanged at 10 percent due to persistent inflationary pressures.

Central bank officials involved in policy formulation said BB will continue its tight monetary stance as inflation remains elevated, despite previous interest-rate hikes that have fallen short of the governor’s inflation targets.

Data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) shows overall inflation rose to 8.58 percent in January, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, with food prices rising ahead of Ramadan.

Although the policy rate has been raised from 6 percent to 10 percent over the past three years, inflation has remained stubbornly high. Headline inflation peaked at 11.66 percent in July 2024 and, while it briefly fell to 8.48 percent in June last year -- the first time it dropped below 9 percent in two years -- it rose again to 8.49 percent in December from 8.29 percent the previous month.

This persistence undermines Governor Mansur’s forecast that inflation would fall below 5 percent by fiscal year 2025–26.

Industry insiders said inflation is being driven more by supply-side constraints than by excess demand. The central bank has resisted calls for a rate cut and has kept the policy rate at 10 percent since October 2024.

BB is also expected to revise its private sector credit growth target to encourage investment after the February 12 election.

According to BB data, private sector credit growth fell to a four-year low of 6.10 percent in December 2025, down from 6.58 percent in November, reflecting political uncertainty and subdued economic activity.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, said the central bank has limited room to ease policy while inflation remains high and is likely to keep the policy rate at 10 percent in the near term.

“Cutting the policy rate now could worsen inflation rather than stabilise prices,” he said, adding that inflation is driven not only by excess demand but also by supply bottlenecks and global supply chain disruptions.

On exchange-rate management, Hussain said Bangladesh Bank is prioritising stability over allowing the taka to strengthen against the US dollar. Despite steady remittance inflows and improved dollar availability, the central bank is avoiding taka appreciation, as a stronger currency could lower import costs but hurt export earnings and remittance inflows.

He added that private sector credit growth remains weak and short-term foreign borrowing has declined. While lower interest rates could support investment, high inflation constrains such measures.

“BB’s dollar purchases have added liquidity to the banking system, but weak credit demand has so far kept inflationary risks in check,” Hussain said.

Following the recent conclusion of a trade agreement between India and the European Union, and the prospect of tariff reductions under a US-India bilateral trade deal, fresh concerns have emerged among Bangladeshi exporters. Tariffs on Indian products in the US market are being reduced to 18 percent, while Bangladeshi products continue to face an effective tariff of 20 percent. This has created a clear price gap between two major South Asian exporters. Experts warn that if this disparity persists, Bangladesh’s ready-made garment exports to the US market, despite their historic edge, could be seriously affected.

Bangladeshi exporters are already struggling to compete on price with US buyers. As a result, orders for basic T-shirts, knitwear and casual apparel are increasingly at risk. Sector insiders say export growth declined during the July-December period of 2025, with only marginal improvement in January, while competing countries moved ahead by leveraging global trade advantages. This has created a new crisis for the export sector.

Analysts also caution that if the EU market no longer offers GSP facilities after 2026, Bangladesh could face a major shock in its largest export destination. Against this backdrop, resolving internal challenges, strengthening diplomatic engagement and reinforcing trade strategies have become critically important. Without stronger policy support to ensure exporter stability, the export sector will face further pressure, with direct consequences for the national economy.

The impact is most visible in the ready-made garment sector. Exporters note that even a 1 to 2 percent tariff difference can determine where orders are placed. With lower tariffs, Indian exporters can offer more competitive prices. They also benefit from easier access to raw materials and faster delivery, supported by more efficient ports and supply chains. As a result, Bangladesh’s T-shirt, knitwear and casual apparel orders face serious threat.

Garment sector leaders say tariff differentiation has left Bangladeshi factories with few options. To survive, many may be forced to cut prices to retain buyers. But lower prices will squeeze already thin margins, worsening conditions for factories burdened by high production costs, gas and electricity shortages, and high-interest bank loans.

Between 2021 and 2026, India concluded nine major trade agreements, significantly strengthening its global export position. Bangladesh, by contrast, has only one effective trade agreement with Bhutan, while another with Japan was signed this week.

India’s success is not sudden. It reflects a long-term strategy and a comprehensive textile and apparel ecosystem, with strong backward and forward linkages, infrastructure investment, skills development and higher value addition. Sector stakeholders say that Bangladesh should not remain stuck in despair, but focus on two priorities: identifying where it has fallen behind, and determining how it can stay competitive through long-term planning. This calls for targeted FTA and CEPA strategies, greater value addition, improved logistics and port efficiency, policy stability and investment in skilled human resources. With these steps, the export sector can still be revitalised.

With India’s countervailing tariff set at 18 percent, Bangladesh faces renewed competitive pressure. The current structure is clear: Indian exports face a 15 percent customs duty plus an 18 percent countervailing tariff, while Bangladeshi exports face a 15 percent customs duty plus a 20 percent countervailing tariff. In total, Bangladeshi exporters pay 35 percent in tariffs. This erodes competitiveness as buyers push for lower prices. At the same time, private sector wage pressures are rising amid expectations of public sector salary increases.

In this situation, the government must urgently intensify diplomatic efforts and strengthen policy support to keep the export sector competitive. With a national election approaching, major political parties should also be prepared to debate and negotiate what best serves the country’s economic interests.

The interim government succeeded in preventing a deeper economic and geopolitical slide during a highly volatile period, but failed to translate that stability into meaningful institutional reform, transparency, and inclusive governance, said speakers at a policy dialogue on Saturday.

Economic analyst Mamun Rashid argued that although the interim government inherited an economy on the brink, particularly after the July 2024 uprising, its most visible achievement was halting further deterioration rather than delivering a decisive turnaround.

“The fall was stopped, not reversed,” said former banker Mamun Rashid at a virtual discussion titled “Interim Balance Sheet”, organised by the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC).

The economy in early 2024 was “going nowhere”, with macroeconomic indicators under severe stress. The period following the political transition marked a shift from decline to stabilisation, particularly in foreign exchange reserves, remittance inflows, and banking discipline.

Reforms in the banking sector, such as reconstituting bank boards and initiating forensic audits, particularly in troubled Islamic banks, were the most visible actions of the interim government.

Anwar-Ul-Alam Chowdhury (Parvez), president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries, alleged that advisers relied excessively on bureaucrats, often without understanding the real-world impact of policy decisions
Still, these measures largely reflected “business-as-usual” governance rather than a deeper transformation.

“We did not see the kind of modernisation in economic management that many expected after the movement,” he said, adding that conflicts of interest, bureaucratic dominance, and informal influence networks remained largely intact.

Private sector credit growth had slowed to 6.1 percent, while implementation of the annual development programme stood at just 17.28 percent in six months, said Anwar-Ul-Alam Chowdhury (Parvez), president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries.

He alleged that advisers relied excessively on bureaucrats, often without understanding the real-world impact of policy decisions.

“They thought they knew everything,” he said, adding that access to decision-makers was limited and engagement with businesses remained weak.

Public expectations after August 2024 were that social polarisation would decline and that a culture of open debate would emerge, said Rounaq Jahan, a political scientist.

“That did not happen,” she said.

While people are now speaking more openly, they are increasingly being labelled or targeted, creating a climate of fear.

She cited attacks on cultural and media institutions such as Prothom Alo, The Daily Star, Udichi, and Chhayanaut as examples of shrinking civic safety.

Jahan criticised the interim government for attempting too many ambitious reforms without sufficient consensus, particularly constitutional changes, while neglecting electoral preparation.

“Given the history of controversial elections, ensuring a credible next election should have been the priority,” she said.

The interim period coincided with rising regional and global instability, including uncertainties over water sharing with India and trade disruptions under the Trump administration in the US, said M Humayun Kabir, president of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute.

While political parties mentioned geopolitics in their manifestos, concrete strategies were lacking.

Kabir welcomed Bangladesh’s economic partnership agreement with Japan, calling it a “bold step”, but criticised the interim government for failing to build strong institutional coordination across the foreign affairs and commerce ministries.

The interim government managed two critical challenges: halting macroeconomic decline and navigating a sensitive geopolitical environment, said Hossain Zillur Rahman, executive chairman of PPRC, who moderated the dialogue.

However, he warned that stability without transparency and social accountability could not deliver lasting change.

“The bureaucracy has further strengthened its grip on society, reflecting a continuation of colonial mindsets,” he said.

Rahman stressed that elections alone would not resolve systemic problems but could serve as a catalyst for rebuilding political dialogue and trust between parties and citizens.